Trident and True

 

Julio Rodriguez does this thing where he takes a couple months to take off, just to give you the idea that he won't. It's happened in all of his MLB seasons to this point. Remember how his 2022 rookie year got off to a slow start only for him to go into full Julio mode and win the hearts of the MLB? Remember how last year he had a slow April but still ended up making an All-Star team and coming 4th in the MVP voting? Because he's still only 24, he's not at his full potential yet, and I have a feeling that in the next couple years, we will see him hitting .300 in April, and then all of y'all are gonna be running for cover.

Right now, Julio's doing...alright. He's hitting .268, he's got 29 RBIs and 7 homers, plus 16 steals, but you're seeing the RBIs and production begin to accelerate in the last few games. The one thing Julio is leading the league in right now is strikeouts, and yes, when I saw him in the Bronx, he certainly struck out a couple times. But again...this is around the point he kicks into high gear, and you're seeing things begin to pick up. He and Josh Rojas are tied for the highest WAR of the hitters on the Mariners, and I can already tell you that Julio's more crucial to this team's success than Rojas is. The other night he had another hero moment, and, again, you're seeing those begin to pick up. I think he's gonna catch fire this month.

It's about time someone did in this lineup, anyhow. The pitching's been much-heralded, even with Bryan Woo skipping a start, but not until recently has the hitting been anything at all. Rojas, Raleigh and Rodriguez have been improving, and now you're seeing Dominic Canzone, Luke Raley and...somehow Victor Robles all joining in on the fun. It's somewhat disheartening that Ryan Bliss and Tyler Locklear, and the since-demoted Jonatan Clase, haven't completely taken to the majors yet, given the pressure surrounding their promotions, but hopefully they get there. 

Look, the Mariners are in first because they're outpitching everybody. That is abundantly clear. Nobody's hitting Gilbert, Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Hancock or Woo. They're just not. And nobody's hitting Andres Munoz either. I think what's keeping them in first is the slow build of the lineup, and guys like Julio and Raleigh finally showing up and keeping this team from being an all-arm, no run support type of team [like they kinda were in May]. The Rangers can outhit these guys, that's for sure, but this series proved that they really can't get past this rotation, and that's gonna go a long way as the season rolls on.

As for Julio? He let you catch your breath. Be grateful for that.

Coming Tonight: A former Mariner ironically, wondering what exactly he's gonna do without a newly-injured star player.

Ahead by a Central-ry

 

There are a few deep moats between division leaders and the competition right now. Both the Mariners and Dodgers are ahead of their competition, and the Phillies famously have a lot on Atlanta. But the most crucial lead is the one the Brewers have in the NL Central. Because literally every team in this division is somewhat competitive right now, and the Brewers are the only ones over .500. 

Everybody else is just in a line, a couple games apart from each other, struggling to stay in it. The Cubs have dropped to the bottom and are trying desperately to get back up. The Pirates and Reds are juggling 3rd and 4th. And the Cardinals, simply because the competition is 'who can be the most mediocre?', are ahead. And yet, despite being wrung out by the Phils a few weeks ago, the Brewers are comfortably ahead and looking very good.

A lot of that is because, after a few slumpy years, Christian Yelich is back to being the central figure of this team. He's probably not gonna perform at the heights of his 2017-2019 run again, but he's still a great hitter with slightly less outfield perks. So far Yelich is hitting .333 with 31 RBIs and 14 steals. It is a season that's already gotten him All Star Game votes, and it's a season that's ensuring his hero status among Brewers fans. Because I think there was some worry that he'd be done being relevant after tanking in 2021. The last two seasons have been a lot better for Yelich, and he's still just as crucial to this team. It's also a lot better than the brunt of the work isn't solely on him, as William Contreras and Brice Turang are also having exceptional seasons and lifting this team further.

You're also seeing Blake Perkins and Joey Ortiz come into their own as solid role players. I think there's still too many replacement level guys in major positions [Jake Bauers, Gary Sanchez], but this lineup is still pretty versatile, and there's enough guys who can show up and deliver when you need. Rhys Hoskins...I mean, he's doing kinda what he did in Philly, one-dimensional power, but you live for the moments where he's on. I'm also thrilled that, after Devin Williams and Abner Uribe went down, Trevor Megill of all people became a solid enough ninth inning option, and already has 12 saves. 

The Brewers, as they are always, are the kind of good team that goes under the radar and you may not think about often, but is still capable of big things. Unfortunately, this hasn't resulted in especially great playoff luck for the Brewers. And the rotation is holding me back from thinking that'll change this year. Breaking up the big three, and putting the emphasis on people like Colin Rea, Bryse Wilson and Tobias Myers certainly is a choice, and it'll be interesting to see if this pays off. But for now, if Yelich, Contreras and Turang are gonna be this good, then who knows?

Coming Tomorrow- It's a decent idea for him to start showing up a bit more, y'know, to help the pitching and all. 

Fry'd and True

 

The Guardians are the anti-Mariners. Their starting pitching isn't the greatest and you see a lot of high ERAs out there, but even if you can get hits off them, the Guardians can get hits off of you in so many creative ways. You already have a guy hitting .386, and another guy with 62 RBIs, but what if I told you there was a superutility-catcher with a .300 average as well? 

David Fry, undeniably one of the breakout stars of this Guardians team, has been a surprise success, and one of the most heralded utility men in the game. So far Fry has played games in the outfield, at third, at first, and behind the plate, and he's above average at all of them except for first. His catching skills have been very useful, considering that the other two catching options, Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges, can't hit. But the idea is also that he can start somewhere and slide in somewhere else, meaning Naylor can keep getting reps without being hung out to dry. 

And in addition to Fry's versatility, he's hitting really well right now. He's got a .317 average with 8 homers and 30 RBIs. For a utilityman, that's pretty damned good. Wherever they put him, it ensures another great hitter alongside Ramirez, Naylor, Kwan and Gimenez, and just from those five guys you see so many different kinds of hitters. Kwan and Fry are two very different kinds of contact bats, Naylor and Ramirez are different types of power hitters, Fry and Gimenez are different types of multi-tool guys. And they all work. Yes, it'd be nice if some of the prospects started hitting, as I think Johnathan Rodriguez, Kyle Manzardo and, well, Bo Naylor, were supposed to be more potent than they are right now. But the heart of the lineup works, and Jose Ramirez [who evidently had a very nice father's day] is pulling his weight at the center of the lineup.

And even if the rotation's not as good as last year, the bullpen's been fabulous. You have all these newer guys like Tim Herrin, Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis, who no one can hit. You have Emmanuel Clase still holding court as one of the best closers in the bigs. And you have Hentges, Sandlin and even Scott Barlow staying consistent for this team. They may be without James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan and Eli Morgan, but the bullpen's still pretty strong, and is keeping the rotation woes from killing the team.

The Guardians are not just good, they're interesting. So many fun stories coming from this team. Fry's just one of them. If they keep this up they'll be bringing a really intriguing team to the postseason, and who knows what'll happen then.

Coming Tonight: A former MVP who's made up a ton of ground since his recent down years.

The Downside of Overexposure

 

It's fitting in a year where my two favorite teams are among the best in baseball that two of my least favorite teams have acted as the spoilers this month. The Cardinals' Alec Burleson famously sent a comeback to Ranger Suarez's hand, which he thankfully rebounded from. And then the Red Sox, who I was actually beginning to tolerate, have used this weekend to chip away at both of these teams, starting with the Phils and moving to the Yanks, during an explosive homestand.

So while both the Yankees and the Phillies are still looking very good, this week has definitely humbled both of them a tad. It's...wild that the Red Sox were the chief force to do this, but...I mean, honestly, good for them.

The Phillies have had the hardest time out of everybody, as they followed their Sox series with an extremely tense back-and-forth with the Orioles. They managed to secure a win in extras to start it off, but the O's wouldn't make it that simple for the rest of it. I think the way the AL East is structured, the O's have the toughest schedule of the two top competitors, and so they may be a more formidable team than the Yanks [at least right now], even if they have the worse record. So the O's rolling out Henderson, Santander and Rutschman against these guys, and battering down even Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, that's understandable. It's not really a 'something is wrong with this team' moment, the O's are just better at this specific point in time. 

And the Phils are still doing so much right. Ranger Suarez is still unhittable, and he's 10-1 with a 1.77 ERA in June, which is pretty fantastic. Bryce Harper is exceeding the standard, and has 15 homers and 46 RBIs with a .901 OPS. Edmundo Sosa's been so good at short that it's been sparking serious conversations about what to do when Trea Turner returns this week. Marsh's injury was such a non-factor that he's already back, and that at least prepares this team more for a month or so without Realmuto. So the team's still great, and with the Padres coming to town I'm not exactly worried about losing much momentum. 

The Yankees aren't exactly worrying me either, but seeing as I'm seeing them in a week I've gotta be at least a little worried. This Sox series has been their most substantial bloodloss since the Dodgers were in town. LA I can understand, they had Mookie and Yamamoto healthy that week, they're also a really well-put-together team. The Red Sox just have enough guys that can slow us down. They got to Carlos Rodon last night, and we couldn't even get to Cooper Criswell. You're seeing new guys like Enmanuel Valdez and Jamie Westbrook get RBIs against us, all while Volpe, Dugie and Gleyber stay silent. This is not the ideal outcome for a Yanks-Sox series when we know we're better than them.

Even if Rodon and Cortes have slipped, the pitching is still better than most teams. We're probably gonna get Cole back within the week, but even if there's a setback I'm loving Cody Poteet's stuff. It's looking like I'll be seeing Marcus Stroman next Sunday, and I'm perfectly fine with those odds, even if his away ERA is lower than his home ERA [which we knew would be the case]. The 'pen is still pretty good. Soto's injury was exaggerated and he's back to what he was doing before. Stanton and Judge are hot [Judge hit #26 as I was writing this]. This team's been looking pretty complete, and I really hope they keep hanging on.

People are gonna wanna use this weekend to undercut the legitimacy of these two teams, and I still think they're the best in the league, and have so much more to build. These two teams will face off at the end of July. It'll be interesting to see what they look like at that point.

Coming Tomorrow- The summation of what it means to be a super-ute in 2024.

Breaking Rox in the Hot Sun

 

The Rockies only have three wins so far in June. All of them were by one point, two of them were against the Cardinals. The rest, the losses, are games where the team gave up 4 or more runs. 

The Colorado Rockies: The Wins Are Close, But The Losses Sure Aren't.

It's honestly wild that Cal Quantrill still has a 3.30 ERA. Even Austin Gomber's has gone above 4 at this point, despite his strong start. And Quantrill isn't a particularly powerful pitcher, he's only struck out 56, but he's not giving up many runs, or hits. He just keeps batters down, and doesn't make many debilitating mistakes. He's 6-4 right now, and clearly the best starter on this team. I am worried about the long term success of somebody like Quantrill heading up a rotation, as in San Diego in Cleveland he was always better at being a 4th or 5th guy. I mean, so were Gomber and Hudson and now they're sort of struggling anyhow.

The fundamental issue here is that, with Justin Lawrence and Jake Bird hurt, the next nearest bullpen pieces, guys like Tyler Kinley, Nick Mears and Anthony Molina, are getting massacred. All of those guys have ERAs over 6.50, and those...are the main options. At least Victor Vodnik and Jalen Beeks are better, but batters are even getting to THEM now. And the wild part is that Mears, Kinley and Molina combined don't have as many losses as Dakota Hudson. I just picture Freeland, Marquez and Senza just sitting on the bench in the bullpen shaking their heads every night.

There are people hitting well but many of them, including Elias Diaz, Jacob Stallings and possibly even Charlie Blackmon if they want to be particularly cruel, might be gone in a month or so. Diaz has been an option for many teams needing catching help, and Stallings flirting with .300 as a backup is only boosting his own appeal. McMahon, Tovar and Doyle have all fallen into place, they're doing the best they can. They've thrown in Adael Amador at 2nd, and he hasn't really done anything yet but he keeps threatening to. Jones and Montero still aren't hitting, Goodman and Toglia still haven't shown up and Bryant's still hurt. So the struggle continues.

This is very much like 2014 or 2015 for Colorado, because you can see some of these pieces begin to crop up and inherit the team. If Ezequiel Tovar continues on this pace he might be yet another legendary shortstop for the Rockies. It just sucks that it continues to be such a pitching suck, regardless of how hard anyone's trying to not be lit up in Coors Field. 

Coming Tonight: Setting a team record for wins to start a career should have been a tipoff that he'd be something. But we all wondered if he'd ever be something again. Well...turns out he still had a lot left to show for himself. 

O'Hoppe Day

 

It had to be weird being a Phillies fan, coming back from the loss to Baltimore today and reading that the Angels won a tight game over San Francisco thanks to RBIs from Logan O'Hoppe and Mickey Moniak. Yes, Brandon Marsh is working perfectly fine for the Phils, but they've gotta be thinking about the catching situation without Realmuto going 'man, if only we still had O'Hoppe.'

Logan O'Hoppe is one of those versatile, multifaceted players that every team needs a few of, and if they're a catcher, even better. O'Hoppe so far has been hitting up a storm, with today's monster home run his 9th of the season. He's a decent defensive catcher, certainly no Realmuto, but considering that the team moved on from Max Stassi and demoted Matt Thaiss to give him a shot, the okay defense isn't enough of a liability. O'Hoppe's great because he can hit for contact and power, and yet thanks to Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo and Zach Neto, he doesn't necessarily need to be the star of the lineup. He's just a very impressive piece to have, and today's win definitely showed that.

Without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, the Angels have needed to draw from some very strange places to stay competent, and it's kept them out of last. We've spoken of the insane comeback of Kevin Pillar, who's still hitting over .300 with a 1.022 OPS. after a month. But you're seeing all these odd types of players contributing positively to this team. Willie Calhoun, as he did last year in New York, has been a surprisingly peppy bench bat, he's hitting .290 with 9 RBIs in 35 games. Luis Guillorme has been a contact smash already in 14 games in Anaheim, hitting .286 with 14 hits in 21 games. You're also seeing Michael Stefanic come in favorably for the 2nd base job. And Jo Adell, after years of trying, is finally mastering MLB production, with 31 RBIs and 12 homers. 

And look, even if Reid Detmers has fallen off in the last month, you're seeing great starts from Tyler Anderson, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Soriano and Griffin Canning. It's a surprisingly tight rotation, even without a clear anchor like Ohtani. Plus you still have Carlos Estevez as a reliable 9th inning guy. 

This is obviously not a terrific Angels team, but so much is working, and games like today's prove that you can't completely write this team off. It looks like they're headed in the right direction, even if they may still be a long shot to compete. But hey, y'never know if Mike Trout's eventual return will give this team the fire it needs.

Coming Tomorrow- The second of two starters surprisingly tearing it up in Denver this year. 

Vote of No(lan) Confidence

 

Right now there is only one team in the NL Central that is over .500. Due to the Cubs slumping for a bit, the Reds' come-up sputtering, and the Pirates still just being mediocre, the other four teams have entered a tight race for 2nd, where everyone is within a game or a game and a half of each other.

And y'know who's in second? The team that's been steadily rising since mid-May without many major mishaps, the damned St. Louis Cardinals. 

I got in trouble a while back for saying the 2014 Orioles were leading the division by default when they actually had a really nice team that should have won it all. So I think saying the Cardinals are in 2nd by default is a lot less controversial. Yes, they're winning games, and they're keeping runs down, but they're not a good team, at least not entirely.

The fundamental issue with this Cardinals team, as it has been, is that two of its biggest stars, Goldschmidt and Arenado, are past their prime, and the other, Willson Contreras, is hurt. That leaves a lot of lesser pieces left to pick up the slack, and while some have, like Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman and Sonny Gray, there are too many fundamental issues with many of these guys for there to be unilateral success. Alec Burleson is a flawed player, because he's decent enough in both the hitting and fielding categories, but he's spotty. He doesn't show up consistently. He does make contact and it goes right for Ranger Suarez's hand. He's not the consistent, impressive contact hitter that should drive a team, like Winn, but more the streakier, less consistent clutch guy that only gets something done when it's most inconvenient. 

Nolan Gorman is a little better than that, though. He's succeeded as a power hitter, and has 15 home runs and 33 RBIs. He also has 83 strikeouts and only a .760 OPS. Clearly there are limits. Gorman was one of those mega-prospect types the Cardinals brought up expecting big things from, and while he has been very good, I don't think he's as well-rounded as people predicted. Winn is pretty well rounded, he can hit and play great defense. Gorman is missing a few pieces, honestly.

And while Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Miles Mikolas are pitching well, they all have higher WHIPs and ERAs than they should. In my opinion, you really should only have one of this type of pitcher, the 35+ veteran who can eat innings and get by without overexerting himself, who may be slightly past his prime but still smart and controlling enough to be trusted. The Cardinals are almost all guys like this. Sonny Gray is still in his prime but even he's had more moments of humanity than last year. The only guy under thirty in this rotation is Andre Pallante, who's been given the go to start again and is doing...alright with it.

And yet the team is still winning games, close ones as well. There's definite flaws with this Cardinals team, not just on the field but organizationally, as many people are overhearing how exhausting it is to play for this team from current and former players. And yes, it's still only a matter of time before Oli Marmol loses his job. But right now they're in 2nd and playing better than their competitors. This is the kind of luck that only shines upon this kind of team, and hopefully they make the most of this moment and start fixing the fundamental issues they have before it runs out.

Coming Tonight: One of the most even trades of the last few years sent this guy to LA, and it's gone great for him. 

Before He Sheets

 

I will give the 2024 White Sox credit, their series with the Mariners was positively gripping.

It ended up being a pretty fair matchup, as both teams have had stars in the starting rotation, and both teams have had several cases of the lineup just not showing up. So seeing games where both pitchers go far without giving up many runs made for a cool and impressive atmosphere, not befitting of a last-place team who'll likely be losing 100 games. Even if the Sox only ended up winning one of these, it was still a tense matchup between Garrett Crochet and Emerson Hancock. Still, even the pitchers that started in losses, including Jonathan Cannon, Erick Fedde and newcomer Drew Thorpe, only gave up a run or so, and mostly have the bullpen to blame for further tomfoolery. 

So I will give the White Sox that credit. Even while stinking it up, they've managed to compile a fairly strong rotation of people like Crochet, Fedde, Cannon, Thorpe and honestly Chris Flexen who can go deep into games and keep runs down. Unfortunately I'm not sure if Fedde, Flexen and Crochet will still be around in a month or so. I'm not even sure if it's a good business move to trade those guys, as Fedde's signed til next year and Flexen and Crochet are still under team control for a bit, but like...they're good players and the Sox are trying to rebuild.

I can say with some certainty that Luis Robert Jr. will probably be dealt this year. He's the only real tentpole piece left on this team, the majority of the contract is through, and even in an injury-shortened year he's shown elite numbers and big hits. Robert has 7 homers and 10 RBIs in 16 games. Most of this team don't have the kind of production to hit those numbers until a month of play has passed. Having him on this team, healthy and hitting, will give the Sox a slight boost, and give them a bit more of a reason to exist, but it'll make it very clear how much he needs to be on a more balanced roster as well. 

The rest of the Sox is just a mix of mediocrity all throughout. Gavin Sheets leads the team in RBIs with 28  but is also hitting .238. Korey Lee is outhitting Martin Maldonado and starting behind the plate, but I feel like if he's trying to do this to stick it to Houston then he should probably know that they actually have a decent backup this year and have already forgotten who both of them are. Oscar Colas and Corey Julks are hitting consistently at an MLB level, but the team they'll be inheriting is not the one they thought they would a couple years ago. And Andrew Vaughn is hitting .225, which is enough to get Sox fans to want Jose Abreu back, EVEN NOW.

It's still a dire situation, even if the pitching picture has improved. You have to hope that the steps are being taken to improve the quality of play but I don't know how many people have to leave for that to happen at this point.

Coming Tomorrow- You blink and all of the sudden this guy's hitting well and his team's in 2nd. 

Lend Me a Tanner

 Here is how dire the situation is in Miami currently. Recently, the Marlins had a promotion that advertised that before the game, there would be an onfield celebration of Miami as the setting for the Bad Boys movies, led by Bad Boys: Ride or Die stars Will Smith, no not the pitcher for the Royals nor the catcher for the Dodgers, and Martin Lawrence. Additionally, Lawrence and Smith would partake in the ceremonial first pitch, clad in modern Marlins jerseys adorned with the surnames of their Bad Boys characters.

Let's think about this. The plan to get Marlins fans in the seats is not by, say, putting money into the team or making it an entertaining product, but doing a promotional appearance by two people who are not Marlins fans, one of which infamously defied SNL censors by making derogatory jokes about feminine hygiene, the other whom committed a sin so heinous that he shouldn't even be allowed into LoanDepot Park...that being growing up as a Philadelphia sports fan. 

That's not a great advertising hook! 'Come, Marlins fans, and see our special guest, a Phillies fan! And if you don't, there's a non-zero percent chance he will punch you!'

The thing is, Miami has been a great hub for the modern cultural conversation. One of the current ambassadors for hispanic presence in baseball is Marcello Hernandez, an SNL player who's getting positively huge right now. Hernandez is a Miami native and Marlins fan, and features prominently in promotional material for MLB's Beisbol initiative, alongside ballplayers from spanish-speaking countries. The rebranding the Marlins had in 2019 was successful in staying true to the Miami area's Cuban and hispanic roots, as have the City Connect uniforms. The Marlins are very much a great symbol of the rise of Miami as an American culture point. You're seeing way more modern Marlins caps than you did Rainbow Fish caps in the 2010s, because it means something to be a Marlins fan, or from Miami, now.

Now...if only the team didn't suck. 

I haven't had this much trouble finding players to customize from a team, THIS EARLY, in years. Nobody is playing well. The people who were, like Ryan Weathers and Bryan Hoeing, are hurt. There are multiple players who have succeeded in the majors that the Marlins are keeping in Jacksonville for no reason, while Nick Fortes, Christian Bethancourt and Tim Anderson get to remain on the roster. The team's best hitter, Jazz Chisholm Jr., has a 1.0 WAR. And the team's best pitcher, Tanner Scott, a reliever with a 1.30 ERA, looks to be getting the hell out of Miami. This team was not this dire in 2023, but they're extremely dire now, and just don't have any starters with an ERA lower than 5 or any starting lineup pieces hitting more than .250. 

The White Sox are a worse team, but at least they have Erick Fedde, Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert, at least for the moment. The Marlins have nobody like that, and they're struggling to get by without any people who can consistently be the hero. And it's really depressing to watch.

I want the Marlins to improve solely to meet the demands of Miami's burgeoning moment. But I don't know how long it'll take for them to get there.

Coming Tonight: A hitter for, somehow, a worse team. 

End of Jays?

 

With Cavan Biggio being picked up by the Dodgers, there's a sense that whatever process began in 2019 with the arrival of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio has since dissipated. The attempts to strengthen the team have resulted in dealing away great central pieces like Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel, letting great trades like Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman walk away in free agency, and sitting on contracts like George Springer's and Kevin Kiermaier's as they age out of their primes. 

And thus we have this current moment, where the team's circling last, and they're seriously considering trading Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

I remember the buzz in 2018 about Bichette and Guerrero, and even if the Jays weren't terrible in 2018 there was a sense that these young kids would be a new foundation that would bring the team back to relevancy. And in a sense they did, as Vlad made a few Home Run Derbys, has made 3 straight All-Star teams, nearly won an MVP in 2021, has a home run title and, even in a lesser year, still feels like one of the best hitters in the game. Same with Bo Bichette, who's already led the league in hits twice, hit for .300 three times and has shown more versatility and range than even his dad. With these two, and a few others, the Jays made the playoffs 3 times in the 2020s...though they couldn't get past the Wild Card round each time. Last year stung the most, as it was the confirmation that this team, no matter who was at the helm, just couldn't succeed in October.

And with the current fourth place position and sub-.500 record, the Jays are seriously thinking about whether or not it's worth it to keep competing. Next year alone the Jays will lose Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi Garcia, Kevin Kiermaier and Danny Jansen, and are coming to the end of contracts with Vlad Jr., Jordan Romano and Bo Bichette. Already, this team has openly discussed dealing some of these guys, even Vlad. And that's very upsetting, considering that at one point Vlad felt like the future of this club.

This year he's had decent enough numbers,  hitting .281 with 7 homers and 30 RBIs, but he's definitely gotten hotter in the last few weeks. I think he knows teams are gonna be looking at him, and wants to come off as strong as possible, even if it means parting with the organization his father entrusted to bring him up. It's uncertain who'll be making the deal, but Houston, San Francisco, Cincinnati, maybe even Seattle or New York, could go for an upgrade at 1st. Or maybe none of it happens and he rounds out the year in Toronto. Or maybe somehow the Jays figure it out and stuff themselves back into the race.

I don't know if the Jays are gonna sell this year, but if it does happen, it'll bring out some sadness in me that I never thought I'd feel for a Jays team after 2016. 

Coming Tomorrow- It is June, and there is a team where literally nobody is worth making a custom of. So I had to go with a reliever. 

Joc Steady

 The deal with Joc Pederson has traditionally been that you're gonna get power numbers. His defense was never especially the draw, even in LA. You get him, you're gonna get 25-to-35 home runs, some solid RBI numbers, some low averages and his younger brother pumping everybody up. That's already a pretty good deal. Pederson has 2 World Series wins, has competed in two Home Run Derbys, is responsible for 12 postseason home runs, and is one of the most fun guys to have around. In the heat of an All-Star season in San Francisco, when Tommy Pham went at him, almost nobody thought it was because of anything Pederson did. It's not like Josh Donaldson egging on Tim Anderson or anything. No, Pedey was in the right and Pham was bringing stuff about their fantasy league into the ring, and Pham got rightfully attacked for it.

What I'm saying is I thought I knew the limitations of what Joc Pederson could bring to a ballclub. And so here he is, in Phoenix, with his best contact hitting year of his career. Hitting .286 with 44 hits, 23 RBIs and an .878 OPS. And his slugging numbers are a .494, but he's gone higher. He only has 7 home runs. It's not really about power this season. Which is kinda wild, cause...this is Joc Pederson we're talking about here. Career .239 average Joc Pederson. 

And hey, the D-Backs will certainly take it at this point. They're hitting .249 as a team, which is 8th in baseball, thanks to contact hitters like Ketel Marte, Jake McCarthy, Geraldo Perdomo and somehow Randal Grichuk. Walker and Marte are hitting home runs, even if resident home run hitter Eugenio Suarez...uh...isn't. Really the only disappointments here have been Suarez and Corbin Carroll, everybody else has been either decent or extremely good. And it's wild to see Pederson an integral part of the team. Not that I didn't think he could, I saw what he could do with the Giants and Braves, but you forget how versatile he is, and how many different things he can excel at. And he's reminding us in AZ this year.

Yes, quite obviously the injuries to the pitching staff has held this team back. We've still yet to see Eduardo Rodriguez, we're without Merrill Kelly for a while, now we're without Zac Gallen, and a rotation of Montgomery-Pfaadt-Nelson-Henry-Cecconi just isn't the same. This is what the D-Backs were trying to get around all last postseason with the Kelly-Gallen-Pfaadt trio. Now that the big pieces of the rotation are hurt it's just 5 guys with 5 ERAs. Montgomery is proving why he made the right decision firing Scott Boras, because that holdout may have tanked his season. If they didn't have Paul Sewald on fire in the ninth, and a very strong bullpen, it'd be over for these guys.

It's a lot like the Astros in the earlier part of the season, and the Marlins and A's now honestly. If there's no 'safe zone' starter to guide you through after a ton of bad starts, then you're really putting a lot on your lineup to show up. And the D-Backs are lucky this lineup can. If there was substantial pitching here, and healthy, they wouldn't be paddling through 4th place.

Coming Tonight: A guy who fans once thought would be the franchise's savior...beginning to look at other clubs. 

Understaffing Before Closure

So, here's a brief bit of topical depression from your local Jersey resident: I found out earlier today that one of our local diners just closed suddenly, out of the blue. This is the third or fourth diner in the last year or so to close down, one's been made into a dispensary. And this one was still standing but now it's suddenly gone. And there was no run-up to it, or signs that it might be on the way out. Nah, beginning of the week the doors were shut, the website was offline and the business was kaput. Thankfully there's a good diner still local, probably one or two others a bit further off, but this specific diner just skidding to a halt like this feels like the ultimate insult. 

It's not that the customers stopped showing up, it's that nobody really wanted to put in the work to keep it open.

Oh yeah and there's an Oakland A at the top of the post, I wonder how that anecdote is related...

Look, the A's were a decent enough team when there were healthy and viable starting options. That at least kept them in the race, and they actually had 5 guys starting all their games for a while. Then Paul Blackburn, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling and Joe Boyle all got hurt, and the replacements were people like Aaron Brooks, Luis Medina and Hogan Harris, who were left out of the picture for a reason. And then suddenly it makes sense that the A's aren't winning games. Nobody's really around to make the first 5 innings suspenseful in any way.

It's really just J.P. Sears right now, as he's the only one who's stayed healthy this time. And it's a good time for ex-Yankee pitching prospects in other markets. Michael King had an amazing day for the Padres [against uh...oh dear this is awkward], and just last night Drew Thorpe had a stunning debut for the White Sox. Sears has been relatively sharp since coming over in the Frankie Montas deal, he's just never particularly had the best teams to defend. This year does seem to be an improvement, as he's 4-5 with a 4.02 ERA in 13 games. Sears isn't an overpowering pitcher, but he's gained some control, and is the best asset the A's have right now. Having Joey Estes and Mitch Spence helps somewhat, but there's still a 'let's throw 'em out there' quality to most of the starters not named Sears, and it's at least nice that he can be reliable for them in a time when everything is failing them.

And now it's getting even more ridiculous than just simply 'no starters showing up'. One of the team's best relievers, Michael Kelly, is facing a long-term league ban due to sports-betting. The plan to get Brandon Bielak over and fix his issues didn't work because the A's aren't the Dodgers. There's three crucial hitters with sub-.200 averages, including one that has been linked to trade rumors due to his, uh, hitting. And two guys who looked like the future of the team last year, Ryan Noda and Lawrence Butler, are back in the minors. Even if people like Tyler Soderstrom, Kyle McCann and Max Schuemann are actually coming into their own, too many parts that were working have been knocked back off for there to be any progress. 

The hope at this point is that things don't get any worse. But seeing as the Twins and Royals are up next...I'm not all that sure...

Coming Tomorrow- A career power hitter having one of his best pure contact seasons yet.

Reds Up

 

Somehow it all just fell into place. The Reds were struggling throughout May, and circling last for a lot of the month. Then all of the Cubs, Pirates and Cardinals started tanking, and the second June started, the Reds took off, and have only lost 2 games since the month began. And guess who's looking at 2nd place all of the sudden?

It's not like the Reds were waiting for everything to fall into place. There was a lot about this team that was working before- Elly stealing all those bases, the golden trio of Greene-Abbott-Lodolo, a surprising amount of strong innings from Frankie Montas, and another fun bench campaign from Stuart Fairchild. But it just seemed like they weren't matching up well against other teams, especially surging teams like the Dodgers, Padres and Orioles, and teams in the midst of hot streaks like the Cardinals and D-Backs. Sometimes the schedule can screw you like that. And as has been documented, even genuinely good teams have trouble with the Dodgers. 

And yet in several games against the Cubs, the Reds have prevailed, and grown even stronger, thanks to Tyler Stephenson finally putting together a complete campaign, Jonathan India finally getting hot, and Nick Lodolo staying firm after his IL stint and looking better than he's looked in years. Lodolo is still a really nice asset, and so far he's 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA in 9 starts. Not the overall crowdpleaser that Hunter Greene is but a really solid, honestly underrated starter. The only upside of Ashcraft getting hurt again is that the Reds are giving innings to people like Nick Martinez and Brent Suter, swing men who can work a ton of innings without really giving out, rather than the carousel of inexperienced chumps that they went through last year. Hell, one of last year's failed starters, Carson Spiers, has become an excellent long-man, and could be given another opportunity to start after he's comfortable enough being opened for.

It's also helped just having people like T.J. Friedl and Sam Moll back, those were two very important pieces from last year. And you're at least seeing positive offensive production from people like Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan India and Spencer Steer, who've had slower starts than preferred. The team does come down to Elly de la Cruz right now, and he's still phenomenal, already with 34 steals and 11 homers. I don't know if he'll go 40, but he could definitely chase some of the numbers Acuna hit last year.

It's a lot more satisfying when this Reds team is doing well, and they could use this month to hold second for a while. I think a lot of people would enjoy them as a major factor heading into the more pivotal months of the year.

Coming Tonight: The Yankees traded him for a guy who's ironically now on the Reds. He's got a tall order upon him, and he's doing better than one might expect. 

North Correa

 

Some people hit a wall at 30, some at 33, others at 27. Carlos Correa had an amazing year for the Twins back in 2022, and despite the murmurings that there was a medical issue, and the botched attempts by the Giants and Mets, the Twins re-signed him anyway. Since then he's done...alright.

I mean, the thing is, with a 1.5 WAR, Correa's the second-best performer on the Twins right now. But like...we know what he's capable of. We know what he did with the Astros. And this is not that, clearly. Defensively he's just not the same, and lacks a lot of the pop he had in Houston. Yes, age, but he's only 29. I know some 29-year-olds that are still very good defensively, or even some 32 year olds. Correa, maybe due to some of the medical stuff that deterred the Giants and Mets, just isn't the same shortstop anymore, and is only sort of an average one.

Thankfully he can still hit, though. Right now he's hitting .270 with 27 RBIs and 5 homers. This is...around his usual pace, and his career average is .272 so it's not terribly off base. But...there doesn't seem to be an exclamation point or anything with this stuff anymore. In like 2017 or whatever, when Correa got hot it felt noteworthy, he felt big. For a 6 year period he was one of the best players in the game. And now that he's been banged up a bit he's...not that. He's just an above-average bat, in a way that sort of fits with the Twins, but not even in the way that Kepler, Buxton, Jeffers and Carlos Santana are above-average bats at this point. There just doesn't seem like there's an x-factor with Correa this time. Even Jeremy Pena, who I've criticized as never really being challenged, is having a better year than Correa. And that's got to hurt.

To his credit, Correa's added a nice amount to this newly-surging Twins team, who've at least peaked above .500 again and are looking a lot better now that they don't have to play good teams anymore. Cause obviously the Yankees series didn't go well, but they have to play the Rockies and A's this week, so that'll go a lot better. Simeon Woods-Richardson and Jose Miranda are finally performing consistency in the majors, and Royce Lewis is FINALLY healthy again. Don't hold your breath, it may be like a John Means thing where it happens immediately after I post this. 

This is not a perfect team, much like this is not a perfect Carlos Correa performance, but they're getting by. There are worse teams in the majors, and there's teams with plenty less to work with. This team just needs to spark fire, like they did last year, if they want to be a match for Cleveland or Kansas City.

Coming Tomorrow- Another hurler the Reds' prospectors were thankfully right about.

Irvin Money

 

At the very least, 2024 might be the year that homegrown pitching finally begins to inherit the Nationals' rotation.

It was difficult for a while, though. There would be homegrown starters, guys like Tanner Roark and Erick Fedde, but all the stars of the show were people like Max Scherzer, Doug Foster, Gio Gonzalez, Anibal Sanchez and Patrick Corbin, all of whom came in trades or as free agents. It was really just Strasburg that was a homegrown ace. A couple years ago they tried Cade Cavalli, and he is steadily approaching 'whatever happened to him?' territory despite only pitching 1 MLB game. 

But in 2024, the Nats have been sending actual products of the farm system out there, and it's been working out. With no offense meant towards MacKenzie Gray and Trevor Williams [and lots of offense meant towards Patrick Corbin], the best work of the season so far have come from people like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker, both homegrown. Irvin's got a 3.12 ERA and a 1.027 WHIP, and he's only been heating up more and more as the season's gone on. Same with Parker, who's 4-3 with a 3.47 ERA in 10 starts. Parker has seemed to go right from the minors to a solid mid-rotation arm, and I think the Nats just need guys like that right now.

D.J. Herz is an interesting case, because he is a rookie getting starting opportunities but he's a product of the Chicago Cubs, who dealt him to Washington last year in a quiet deal for undisclosed compensation [probably a loose end in the Jeimer Candelario deal]. So Herz isn't a Nats product, and you can tell he isn't...because he's gotten walloped in his first two starts. Yes, he'll likely mellow out, but it's not the first impression the Nats were hoping for. In fairness they can probably just go 'look he's technically not our guy'. 

The homegrown mentality still hasn't completely taken over the lineup though, as it's really just Luis Garcia and Jacob Young and a bunch of other people's guys. Yes, some of them are very good, like C.J. Abrams and Jesse Winker, but you can tell there's still a lot of work to be done, and several of the people who were supposed to have strong years, like Keibert Ruiz, Lane Thomas and Eddie Rosario, really aren't impressing people so far.

So I'd call the onset of homegrown pitching an improvement, but it's gonna take more than that for this Nats team to really stand on their own in this division.

Coming Tonight: He was once one of the most important players in the game. Now he's...still good, but far less unique. 

Of Littell Faith

 

I feel like I'm dumping on the Rays a lot this year. Out of everybody I think I've done the most 'what are we even doing here' posts about the Rays. But if you look at this team, like 7 of the top 8 players on this team give off the vibe of 'reject from x farm system'. Isaac Paredes is the best player on this team, and this is a guy that wasn't good enough for the 2021 Tigers. Garrett Cleavinger was on the 2020 Dodgers and couldn't get it to work. Jason Adam was traded for Josh Willingham, and it still took him like 7 more years to properly impact a team. And this Rays team is the one they work in, all while the actual stars are, like nowhere to be found.

I think the way you sum the 2024 Rays up is that this is the kind of team that can make Zack Littell a star. Zack Littell was a decent relief guy with the Twins and Giants, and bopped around recently til becoming a swingman/opener with the Rays last year. Because the Rays are still without McClanahan, Rasmussen and Springs, and because there are so few sure bets in this rotation [even with Pepiot getting hurt], Littell got a starting role. He's done very well, with a 3.63 ERA and a team-leading 69 Ks in 13 starts. Even with Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale on this team, Littell might be the closest thing this rotation has to a rock. And while that is a good thing in the context of this season, in the context of the last 6 years of Rays history it's dire. We've gone from Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Charlie Morton and Ryan Yarbrough to...well, here's Zack Littell, he's all we've got.

That is a good way to sum up this Rays team, honestly. It's all we've got. All those years of fielding great players in trades and refusing to pay them have led to Jose Siri, Richie Palacios, Ben Rortvedt and Amed Rosario inheriting this team. The fans are already pissed because the team DFA'd Harold Ramirez, who's become a fan favorite due to how fun he is on the field, and how much he loves his kid, in favor of Jonny DeLuca, who cannot hit. And the core that this team has relied upon, of people like Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz, Josh Lowe and Taylor Walls, is....terrible. Arozarena's hitting .179. That whole 'smug crossed arms' thing only works if you're playing well. And honestly, the Rays might deal him. Either it's happening now or it's happening the moment he asks for a raise this offseason, might as well cut out the middleman. Diaz is at least batting .250 but compared to last year it's such a disappointment.

As I write this, the Rays are losing to the Orioles 4-2, despite 9 strikeouts from Ryan Pepiot and a 2-run home run from former Mariners catching prospect Alex Jackson. And guys...this shit isn't even interesting anymore. 'Oh, wow, a former prospect getting shelled and a guy you haven't thought of in 6 years being the only person to hit anything!'. Get a new owner, secure the St. Pete stadium, and stop this foolishness.

Coming Tomorrow- From the farm system that brought you Stephen Strasburg, Erick Fedde, Chad Cordero and Lucas Giolito comes....this guy, I guess.

Always Be Closing: The Inexplicable Titan

 

Here's something odd about the 2024 season so far. The story setup of 'there's this 30something pitcher named Suarez who'd left the MLB and gotten huge in international leagues, came back in the last couple years and is suddenly unhittable and being used in a major role by a competitive team' can be used to describe two different guys. 

There's Albert Suarez, who's been surprisingly lethal in a longman role with occasional starting perks in Baltimore. And then there's Robert Suarez, who was never drafted by an MLB team, became a relief giant for the Hanshin Tigers during the early 2020s, signed with the Padres, became one of their most dominant relievers, got signed to a multi-year extension at the height of Seidler-geddon, and now has 17 saves and a 0.69 ERA in 25 games this season. There's coming out of nowhere, and then there's whatever the hell this is. 

What's wild is that I didn't know Suarez was an unconventional rookie story. I just assumed, oh here's this new kid from the same system Pedro Avila, Adrian Morejon and Dinelson Lamet all wandered out of, good to see they've given him a chance. No, this is a pure export situation, where Suarez, like Ha-Seong Kim, got a small deal to see if he could work in the MLB, then got extended when it became clear that he could, and now the ninth is his. And considering that A.) last year was injury-shortened for Suarez and B.) the Padres no longer have Josh Hader, this ascent to the ninth just seemed like a perfect storm of great timing for the 33-year-old.

Suarez's 17 saves put him at 5th in the MLB, behind veteran closers like Emmanuel Clase, Kyle Finnegan and Clay Holmes, and relievers who are highest on the depth chart, like Ryan Helsley. Again, I submit that Helsley's come into so much luck being a reliever for the Cardinals that he wouldn't have found otherwise, and it's nice to see a self-made, underrated guy like Suarez come in on him. Suarez was lucky to inherit a team with a lot of save situations, as well as a team with a great bullpen heritage. Even taking Suarez out of the equation, the Padres have people like Jeremiah Estrada, who had this insane run to start the season, Yuki Matsui and Enyel de los Santos. Suarez is just the tip of this, and he's lucky enough to get the closing job. 

Now, another reason why he's been doing so well in the ninth might be that the Padres are currently at .500, and have teetered around there for a while. They have a lot that's going well, and a few too many players underperforming. Yet this is still a competitive team, one that could build given the right momentum. And having a guy like Suarez could definitely help this team sneak into the conversation as we head into the later months of the season.

Coming Tonight: The Rays had an abundance of relievers and too many starting vacancies. So this guy's been a top starter this year. 

Faithfully Yordan

 After scaring me by inexplicably becoming good in mid-May, the Astros have thankfully evened out a bit, and are now 6 games under .500. They're still winning games, and still doing their thing, but every once in a while they lose embarrassingly. Like today, they were going toe-to-toe with the Angels, and then Josh Hader let a ball get to Logan O'Hoppe, it gets Trey Cabbage to run to the wall and Trey leans into the stands, thinking he's got it. 

And folks...the moment of realization when Cabbage looked into his glove, realized he didn't have it and did this little 'DAMMIT' motion...that's one of the funniest baseball things I've seen in a while. Funnier than Kiké Hernandez taking a bouncer to the cubes while mic'd up, funnier than Volpe hitting a triple and sort of shruggingly taking home upon the overthrow into the dugout. Just funny stuff. O'Hoppe just sort of started the home run trot even while Hader was trying to figure out what had happened. The broadcasters were even going 'shit, THAT'S GAME!'. It amused me to no end.

The Astros have honestly had a lot of that luck this year. Losing Javier and Urquidy for the season is one thing, but now they're without Kyle Tucker, their best player, for a little bit. It's very much like a Juan Soto kind of absence, like a 'see how much value I deserve considering how shitty the team looks without me?' kind of thing. And Tucker will probably get a nice contract from Houston eventually, provided the gravy train keeps rolling, which, while not a guarantee, is likely. But without Tucker, the outfield is now Meyers-McCormick-Loperfido. Or Cabbage if today doesn't result in a benching. And that's so much less cool. Remember, back in the day this was a Brantley-Springer-Tucker outfield, that's so much better. Not that Jake Meyers isn't good, he's got 25 RBIs, but...he's not really the household name Brantley was. Loperfido at the very least is hitting .333, that's decent contact stuff, but they're really not sure if he's the guy or not yet. 

The Astros are just lucky that they're still the Astros. Altuve's still a league talent, he's mixed contact and power perfectly and is cementing what is likely a Hall of Fame career, as much as it pains me to say it. Alvarez is, y'know, doing his thing. He's got 13 homers, 33 RBIs, hitting .296. It's very much like an Ortiz thing where he's just gonna do this, and I can waste time hating him or I can just come to terms with the fact that he's really good. Verlander, even at 41, still has a 3.63 ERA, and can pitch big games. It's clear that Valdez, Bregman, Hader and Diaz are lesser this year, but they've still had strong moments.

I think the Astros annoy me slightly less than usual because they have such obvious flaws that, for the most part, prevent them from really making much headway in this division. The Rangers have struggled with injuries but they still have a lot going for them. The Mariners have had lineup trouble but even that's turning around. The Astros just...aren't a wholly ironclad team anymore. They can pretend that they are, and they will, but ultimately this will hold them back. 

...y'know, unless they'd like to hijack the narrative again. Not that this is an invitation. 

Coming Tomorrow- There have been a lot of incredible seasons in San Diego so far, and this might be the most inexplicable. 

Mitch Count

 

It is wild to me that, despite the call-ups, despite the injuries, despite the fact that this is still the Pirates, that I can say confidently that the 2024 Pirates have a solid core four at the top of the rotation. 

And look, the way things were looking for a bit, the Pirates might have actually made things work with Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales. But, y'know, Gonzales got injured, as he tends to, and Perez followed. So there is one definite vacancy in this rotation one that, I assume, after yesterday will be going to Luis Ortiz. But the fact that the other four guys are all doing well, and that one of them is Bailey Falter, is wild to me.

From his first few starts this year, I was worried that Mitch Keller's incoming last season was a false sign, but he evened out and now he's the best player on the Pirates again. In 13 starts he's 8-3 with a 3.16 ERA and 74 Ks, 2 behind Jared Jones. Keller has matured into someone who can head up this rotation, work til long into the game, and keep delivering results. It took him a WHILE to get here, and there were like three seasons of 'hmmm, I'm not sure of this' stuff from Keller. But now all of the people that Keller leaned upon as a younger member of this rotation, including Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove and J.T. Brubaker, are all elsewhere. Some, including Taillon and Williams, are having great seasons. And now Keller might have eclipsed them all. 

Keller, Jones and Skenes have been super strong all month. And now Bailey Falter's joined them, which, again, is wild. Not that he was bad in Philly, at best he was serviceable, but I never really expected him to do much in other markets. Then again I said the same thing about Nick Pivetta, and this trade similarly screwed us [what's Rodolfo Castro even up to, anyway?]. Falter's got a 3.69 ERA, but a 1.039 WHIP. He's not striking out many people, but he's just not giving up many runs either. Falter isn't flashy, but he's certainly doing his job, and I think the Pirates appreciate it.

The Pirates currently being in last isn't especially an indictment on them, they're only 3 games under .500, but more a statement on everyone in this division besides Milwaukee. The Cubs, Reds, Cardinals and Pirates are all within a half game of each other. All in varying stages of momentum. Reds gaining ground, Cubs gaining ground, etc. The Pirates are sort of on the up-and-up, and are seeing more stuff from Oneil Cruz, Connor Joe, Rowdy Tellez and Ke'Bryan Hayes. They also did really well against the Dodgers, something I can NOT SAY FOR THE YANKEES THUS FAR. The Pirates get to play the Cardinals this week, and they're on the way down. It could be an opportunity to regain the upper hand in the Central, especially considering that the Cardinals have yet to face Paul Skenes. 

I want the Pirates to do well, just because it feels like they deserve something like this. With this pitching, there's a chance. 

Coming Tonight: I'm still not sure if this guy falls into the David Ortiz category of 'I hate him because he's so good', or if I just hate him. 

Hung Out to Dry

 

Last night, firmly I'd say, was Reese Olson's worst start of the year thus far. Olson had made a habit of pitching very strong outings without overexerting himself, and without much run support. In The Tigers' 0-10 loss to Milwaukee, Olson gave up 8 runs and 12 hits, despite striking out 6. I don't think I even need to say that Olson didn't get any run support on that one.

But it's the latest example of Olson pitching the best he can and the Tigers not especially showing up for him. Olson is 1-7 so far this season, with some April losses coming during outings where he only gave up 1 or 2 runs. Olson isn't the showiest pitcher in this rotation [I refer you to Jack Flaherty], but he's extremely consistent, and he's capable of going 7 or so innings even if he gives up runs. Until this past start he had an extremely low ERA, and the Brewers rout raised it from a 2.48 to a 3.43. This is also the umpteenth start from Olson where he gave up 5 or more runs, which is becoming a frightening trend for a team that has already lost Flaherty to an injury.

Olson's issues with opposing batters is only one leg of the problem though. The Tigers' lineup, even with Mark Canha and Gio Urshela, is painfully anemic this year. They had to send Spencer Torkelson down to Toledo due to his .200 average, and for a guy that was at one point the sign of great things to come, that's a disappointing trend. Not that Casey Mize is doing a ton better, his 4.70 ERA is telling me that he may have thrown his arm out a couple years ago. Other than Riley Greene, there's really not a ton going on with this lineup. Matt Vierling's hitting .282 with 28 RBIs, that's a very good thing. Kerry Carpenter was hitting before he got injured. This new kid, Justyn Henry-Malloy, does seem like, at the very least, a breath of fresh air. But a lot of these guys are either underperforming, past their prime or just doing...okay. 

And yet Tarik Skubal is 7-1. Which means that the Tigers' hitters show up for Skubal...but not for Olson. And that's odd to me. Yes, Skubal is the better pitcher, but Olson's record is due less to his own abilities and more to the lack of run support. It is a two-part issue, and I can't imagine how many more wins Sky might have in another market, but it's just sad seeing Olson going 1-7 despite having, at least til this week, a really nice year.

The Tigers looked to compete for a bit, but might be too mediocre to get too far above .500. I hate that they're still struggling, even as the Royals have found themselves, but that's just the Tigers' luck.

Coming Tomorrow- Everybody's talking about two rookie hurlers on his team, but he's no slouch himself.

The London Eyeroll

 

Damon Albarn of Blur once sang 'London Loves the way we just don't stand a chance'. I don't think he wrote that song about the Mets but he could have fooled me.

This weekend's London Series will be a test of two things. One, it will be a test of the Mets' ability to perform under pressure against the best team in the NL. Two, it will be the test of the average UK-based sports fan's patience. Now I know, there's a whole trope of british soccer fans putting up with miserable play for years because of a devotion to a club, and there's literally a whole film about it where Colin Firth plays an Arsenal fan [that got made into the Jimmy Fallon film that was supposed to be about how the Red Sox always lose filmed during the 2004 postseason so...heheheh..]. So I know they put up with a lot. But this is the Mets. Not only that, this is the 2024 Mets. AMERICAN sports fans are already done with them. This could be a new test of their patience. 

The Mets are actually coming off a 3 game winning streak. The last game before everybody got on the plane was a 9-1 rout of Washington, featuring two home runs by recent addition Luis Torrens, as well as the 10th home run from Francisco Lindor, who, despite some early struggles, is now beginning to finally pick things up. Lindor is only hitting .235, but his hitting stats, including his 35 RBIs, are the x-factor, and even if he's not hitting to the extent that he was last year, or even in his prime with Cleveland, he's still one of the best hitters on the Mets.

But it says a lot about this Mets team that a lower-key Lindor with only a 4 bWAR column, along with surprise contact weeks from Luis Torrens and Jose Iglesias, are the offensive highlights right now. Like, they're getting good seasons out of Harrison Bader, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez, but we all know they've done better. Alonso has 14 homers right now and it seems tame by his standards. The highest OPS on the team belongs to Mark Vientos, with a 1.013, along with a .333 average, 12 RBIs and 5 homers in 20 games. No matter how heavily Steve Cohen insisted on crafting a great roster, several of these guys just aren't showing up. The pitching's also just kind of a mess right now without Senga, or any of the homegrown legends. Manaea, Butto and Megill are fine, and David Peterson's looked good since coming up, but this isn't really a lineup that instills confidence. Or a bullpen, in that matter.

And there they are, this bastion of mediocrity, going up against a Phillies team that looks like they could eat these guys for breakfast. I expect at least one upset victory, but the Mets will need a lot of spontaneous energy to take this team down, in London or in the States.

Coming Tonight: A Tigers pitcher that's been excellent in every category except for run support.

Raf Riot

 

The cartoon logic of the Red Sox waiting for Yankees to get injured and seeing two more of their own guys wind up on the IL astounds me.

Like, it's looking like Juan Soto will be able to avoid a IL stint, yet two more Red Sox have gotten injured in the last week. One, Wilyer Abreu, was in the midst of an impressive rookie season with great defensive outfield numbers. The other, Chris Martin, became the umpteenth player in the last few years to cite anxiety as a reason for missing time. In the last year alone we've seen Daniel Bard, Austin Meadows and now Martin do this, and I don't think the MLB's mental health initiative is really doing anything to stop this. I feel for Martin, I really do, and as someone with tremendous anxiety I wish he finds clarity at some point. But it just comes at a bad time for the Sox, who've already lost enough guys to injury. If they didn't have to play the White Sox this week they'd be in dangerous territory.

The Sox thankfully do have a large portion of strong assets still healthy and surging. Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello and Cooper Criswell are all active and having good seasons. Bello is clearly not as consistent as he was last year but he's still 6-2. The bullpen is still very strong, and Brennan Bernardino and Justin Slaten are great set-up options for Kenley Jansen, who has 9 saves and is still good at his job.

And more importantly...this Red Sox team still has Rafael Devers on it. Devers has been very hot recently, and just had a 2-homer day this week. He's hitting .287 with 13 homers and 32 RBIs, leading the team in the last two. He's also got a .947 OPS, which is pretty insane. Devers, at 27, already has a career 20.8 WAR, and this is even before he reaches what is commonly the peak period for MLB players. Devers, despite being the baby of the team when I caught a game at Fenway all those years ago, is now the longest tenured Red Sox player, and the center of the lineup. I'm glad he's still a reliable player, and an incredible hitter, after all this time. The Sox at least have developed people like Jarren Duran, Connor Wong and now David Hamilton to assist him, but he's just as reliable as he was back in the late 2010s.

The Sox remaining a steady third in the AL West despite teetering around .500 says as much about them rising above expectations and out-itching competitors as it does about the Rays and Blue Jays' struggles. Regardless of injuries and inexperience, the Sox are better than they were in years past, and they're probably better than the Rays or Jays. Whether they can make this work long term is another thing entirely, but they've proven more than a lot of people would have thought by this point in the season.

Coming Tomorrow- There's a guy I knew from high school who always acted like he had the biggest silver spoon up his ass, and he decided that the way to fix his reputation would be to move to London, as if that would make us all forget how terrible he was. Anyway, a guy who plays on the Mets.

Heliot Trope

 

The issue I, and many people, had with the Giants for a while was that for the team to work, it hinged on the success of multiple 30-somethings rather than a full youth movement. In 2021, the Giants rallied around Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt, and it got them to 1st. Then Posey retired, the other guys deteriorated, and the team wasn't as good. 

I think the 2024 team, despite not being overly dominant, have achieved the balance between veteran presence and youth development. This is a team that values Jorge Soler and Mike Yastrzemski as much as it values Logan Webb and Patrick Bailey. And now we're actually seeing rookies beginning to find roles and cement themselves into this lineup, which is something that's happened so sporadically over the past few years. 

Heliot Ramos is the big one, as he'd been bubbling up the past few years with no avail. Now that, due to injuries, there's more room in the outfield, Ramos has gotten the chance not only to start but to lead off. So far Ramos is hitting .304 with a .918 OPS, 19 RBIs and 5 homers in 26 games. He's gone from 'hm, let's give him a shot' to 'I cannot imagine the lineup without him', a lot like LaMonte Wade Jr., who sadly just got injured. Ramos is a fearsome hitter with great defensive outfield ability, and he's the exact kind of player this team needs. I'd also throw Luis Matos into that category, but the team still feels the need to keep giving Austin Slater a shot rather than let Matos, with 20 RBIs in 21 games, come into his own. 

Also playing a surprising role in this Giants team is infield rookie Brett Wisely, who's hitting .341 with 7 RBIs and 14 hits in 16 games. Wisely isn't the overwhelming standout Ramos is, but he seems like a nice, versatile, handy guy to have around. You also have Kyle Harrison as a pinned-down rotation option, and while he's not as starry as Webb or Hicks, he's a strong enough innings-eater. 

For the first time in a while, the median age of this team is going down, and the younger players are beginning to pick up the work. And yes, it is nice that Matt Chapman's having a nice season, or that Tyler and Taylor Rogers are still holding it down in the pen, but all of this won't last forever, and this team's gonna need to develop in order to have any chance against the Dodgers going forward. There may be too many flaws at the current moment, but with people like Ramos I do have more confidence than I have previously. 

Coming Tonight: How's this guy already in his eighth season? I still remember watching him play during his first month in the bigs. 

The Well Runs Dry in LA?

 

Thirty years ago, the Dodgers were in the midst of a streak of Rookie of the Year winners that paved the path for their farm system to become a superpower going forward. A fairweather baseball fan can name two of them: Mike Piazza and Hideo Nomo. A true baseball fan, like myself, can name all five. Eric Karros, Mike Piazza, Raul Mondesi, Hideo Nomo, Todd Hollandsworth. From 1992 to 1997, the Dodgers' youth movement is spitting out gems. Four organizational giants, plus one extremely savvy international signing. And in the years to follow, this same farm system would produce people like Adrian Beltre, Eric Gagne, Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. 

The 2010s alone, the Dodgers were responsible for producing Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler and Will Smith. With the latter three, they won a World Series. After years of excellent development, they were able to build their way to the top. Yes, it...probably should have happened more than once, but for the entirety of the 2010s, the Dodgers acted as also-rans to other baseball stories, much like the Yankees. 

However...since 2020...not only have the Dodgers been responsible for less consistent homegrown stars, but the ones they had have been leaving. Pederson, Seager and Bellinger are all having very nice seasons...just not for the Dodgers. Bellinger's having his second excellent year in Chicago, he's hitting .258 with 29 RBIs. Seager's still undeniably one of the best players in baseball and is farming some excellent seasons in Texas. And Joc Pederson is hitting .288 with an .899 OPS, and is one of the highlights of a weaker Diamondbacks team. 

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have already needed to send James Outman, Miguel Vargas, Landon Knack and Gavin Lux down for minor league stints over the past few years. Outman was having a solid rookie year in 2023, but now he's hitting .147, and thus he's back in Oklahoma City. Vargas was starting last year and now he's very much an extra piece. Similarly, any excess organizational nuggets, including Alex Verdugo, Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, Andre Jackson, Michael Busch, Jonny DeLuca and Ryan Pepiot, don't last very long on the Dodgers, as they're constantly buying. So we're left with a very diluted Dodgers youth movement, which, if there wasn't a ton of great contracted players there, would be more worrying.

Now, there are two Dodgers rookies who are making waves so far. One of them is Andy Pages, longtime prospect, who's finally up in the majors and hitting well. Pages has 18 RBIs and 6 homers in 43 games. The other is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who's 6-2 in his first 12 MLB games. Now Yamamoto technically isn't a Dodgers farm product, but...neither was Hideo Nomo. But those two are better than nothing. Not as noteworthy as before, but not zero.

Ultimately a lot of this has to do with the evolution of baseball, with more money to free agents and more emphasis on roster packing. And right now the Dodgers are trying to do this, and it's working. Eventually they'll need to rely on the farm system more, and hopefully it's still high quality. But for now I guess Betts, Ohtani and Freeman will get the job done. 

Coming Tomorrow- The upside of stocking your team with injury-prone 30 year olds is that eventually they leave spaces for younger people to get playing time. 

Maik Check

 

The failure of the 2022 Royals team to catch on last year somehow resulted in a 2024 team with more depth. So instead of having those options that worked in 2022 and not much else, we now have extra options that shift into place perfectly upon injuries. Adam Frazier starting everyday and Daniel Lynch and his 1.50 ERA getting bigger roles is definitely not a terrible downside here.

I think the best thing to happen to the Royals in the extra year was finding out about new options. Maikel Garcia wasn't really in the picture in 2022, and now he's one of the more integral members of the team. Garcia currently has 35 RBIs, the most of anyone on the team not named Witt or Perez, and his 14 steals are second to Witt. He's versatile, he's a good contact guy, he gets on base, and he's slowly becoming a big part of this infield. Pasquantino is also having a nice year, even if his defense isn't the greatest. So it's really just a matter of finding a consistent second baseman, and Michael Massey was becoming that when he got hurt. Not that Frazier is bad, just...like in Baltimore, he's being used as a replacement piece for the interim in between the long-term answer showing up. Same with Hunter Renfroe, and Dairon Blanco seems to be gaining on him. 

But you also have the fact that had the 2023 collapse not happened, the Royals never would have been in a position to start Cole Ragans. Ever since they've allowed that to happen, he's been wonderful, and is one of the team's most trustworthy pitchers. Ragans leads the team in strikeouts with 89, and him, Seth Lugo and Brady Singer have become a very sturdy leading trio at the head of the rotation. Lynch and Marsh aren't terrible backing them up either.

And then you have smaller pieces, like backup catcher Freddy Fermin, the defense of Kyle Isbel, and a number of the quick moves that have resulted in a firmer bullpen picture [getting John Schreiber was a really smart move]. As a result, the Royals seem more confident and more formidable, and they've won 36 games already. Admittedly they've lost a tiny bit of ground since losing Massey and Michael Wacha, but they're still in a decent enough position, and they've still got Bobby Witt hitting insanely well.

Even with the Guardians in excellent form, the Royals could be a spoiler this year, and people like Garcia are the key to this happening.

Coming Tonight: Everyone knew where he was gonna sign during the offseason. It just took him a while to actually sign there. But he's still performing to the same caliber, thankfully.

Fried and True

 

It really is a back and forth kind of year for the Braves now that Ronald Acuna, Sean Murphy and Spencer Strider are out for the year. One moment your best pitcher strikes out 13, the next your team's being shutout by the Red Sox. Gone is the consistency of the last two years, as at any moment you could show vulnerability, or just plain fail to show up.

The Braves this season have already had to pivot and rethink things a number of times. Murphy getting hurt was one of them, they slotted Travis d'Arnaud in the starting position and used Chadwick Tromp, who seemed to not be aware of how relevant it is for him to change his number to 45 in this day and age with this last name, as backup. But now Murphy's gotten hurt again, and might be missing more time. And yes, this is why you keep d'Arnaud around. For a 35-year-old catcher, he's hitting very well, and has held up beautifully. A lot like Charlie Morton, d'Arnaud overcame injuries in his 20s to become a very reliable and consistent option in his 30s. Now, Morton is probably the better overall player, but d'Arnaud still being a viable option is a great thing. Doesn't mean the Braves won't deal for Jacob Stallings at the deadline, but it's not as much of an issue as you might think.

The Acuna loss is similar. The Braves have been starting Adam Duvall more, and while Duvall isn't having the greatest season so far, he's at least a power bat the fans enjoy. They are likely planning to do something with Ramon Laureano in the coming weeks, and have Forrest Wall and Leury Garcia stirring in Gwinnett. Honestly, the outfield might be the weakest part of the team, as both Jarred Kelenic and Michael Harris are having decent but not incredible seasons. Acuna really was holding that unit together, and without him there's not much. So they have a working system, but it's clearly not perfect.

And then the hole Strider left was one that seemed simple but has needed more ideas. Bryce Elder, given his 2023 season, seemed like the next step to a 5th starter, but I think his full year wrung out his arm, as his 2024 material hasn't been as good, with a 6.46 ERA in 5 starts. Rookie options like Darius Vines, AJ Smith-Shawver and Allan Winans also had mediocre results to starting stints. Hence Spencer Schwellenbach, the newest rookie hurler, who has a chance to either be the next rotation addition going forward or be dealt to a dying market in August. So far, Schwellenbach has gotten killed in both his starts, so if I had to guess..

The best news in that regard is the strength of the other four starters. Reynaldo Lopez had the best April, Chris Sale had the best May, and Max Fried may have had the best build from the start of the season. Fried is 6-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 67 Ks, a pretty strong start. He's also been going deep into games, and leads the team in IP. Fried's 2023 injury worried some people, but he's come back stronger than ever, and hopefully keeps it up. I do worry a little about Sale, and after his recent start I should, but hopefully he's figured out how to stay healthy as well, because he's been a surprise success for the Braves. Meanwhile, Charlie Morton, at 40, still has a 3.88 ERA and 65 Ks, so even if it's not peak Morton he's still got it. 

The Braves have enough going for them that the losses haven't completely ended the season. Someone pointed out that the 2023 Braves had the same record at this point in June. But the 2023 Braves had more to work with, and more momentum. So unless the Braves find some soon, they'll be looking up at the Phillies for a while.

Coming Tomorrow- He came up in a year that seemed like the lineup was set in stone and became a regular. Now he's helping that team compete, finally.