The Latest Phase in Washington

 

Currently playing for the Washington Nationals: James Wood, Dylan Crews, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin, D.J. Herz, Andres Chaparro, Jose Tena, Jacob Young and ultimately C.J. Abrams and MacKenzie Gore. This is supposedly going to be the core of the Nats team that will someday compete, and they're all up in the majors...and the majority of them are playing really well. Crews already has 2 homers, Wood has fully warmed up to the majors, Chaparro and Tena will routinely do something crazy, and Parker and Herz can strike people out.

So if you're wondering how the Yankees dropped two games to these guys, that's how. This is a team that is moving forward right in front of us, is calling up organizational gems now and seeing them work almost immediately, and is already gearing up for a much better 2025. Now, how we couldn't put anything up against Patrick Corbin, that I'm still not entirely sure of. But the Nats, while being decidedly a lower tier team with no 2024 playoff aspirations, can get you when you're not looking. 

I think about how far the Nationals' rotation has come this year and I'm really hopeful. Like, last year had perennial guys, Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore, but a lot of these guys were pure innings eaters with no perks. That's honestly how I'd classify Trevor Williams, who was very much a placeholder starter this year til he got hurt. Once Parker and Herz came up, and you started seeing the rotation emphasize them, Gore and Irvin, then it shifted from simply eating innings to actually outdoing lineups. Parker, despite some recent struggles, has been a very nice rookie hurler for the Nats this year, with 109 strikeouts in 24 starts. D.J. Herz, meanwhile, is already looking like a deadly little late rotation guy, with an 11.4 K/9 rate, a 3.84 ERA and 83 Ks in 14 starts. 

You hope that the Nats can string together a rotation of Gray, Gore, Irvin, Parker and Herz, because that could be a winning combo going forward. All young, all controllable, all in their prime, all fully capable. It sucks, cause Cade Cavalli is still in the organization and was supposed to be incredible but kept getting injured, and I don't know if there's room for him in this picture anymore. Then again, there honestly isn't room for Patrick Corbin either and he's sticking around indefinitely. 

The Nats don't have much to accomplish this year aside from finishing above Miami and not losing 100 games. But they're putting the pieces together to eventually rely less on rentals and replacement pieces and more on a working, thriving core to challenge their divisional rivals. It may not be immediately next year, but it looks like it'll be soon.

Coming Tomorrow- Unsurprisingly, the second he came off the IL he started power hitting again.

Return to Baz

 

I think the theme of this Rays season has been 'well, these things we had didn't work, why not try these other things we also had that we haven't been able to use yet this year? Oh, that doesn't work either. Ah.'

Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs are all active and making progress in the Rays' rotation. Springs just had a vintage start, and he's got a 3.67 ERA in 6 games back. Baz has been stronger than ever, with a 3.48 ERA and 36 Ks in 8 games. And they're all joined Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot, who were already having nice seasons, to make a relatively sturdy bullpen. Only problem is it's about to be September, the team's dangling under .500 and they're hitting .230 as a team. This rotation would actually have worked if they'd started the year with it, with no disrespect meant towards Zach Eflin or the now-injured Zack Littell. 

But, of course, because of so many Rays moves they've shot themselves in the foot with, like cutting Harold Ramirez, trading away Christian Bethancourt before his Cubs boom, trading Luke Raley to a team he's a better fit for, and obviously the Franco thing, a decent rotation can only do so much right now. The remaining Rays aren't hitting much, and Brandon Lowe and Yandy Diaz are steps down from their usual highs. You are seeing offensive production from Christopher Morel and Dylan Carlson, but it's not pretty. And Junior Caminero appears to be working at the MLB level so far, but even then all he's doing is hitting .280 with consistent contact work. He's not at full power yet, he's 20 years old. Not everyone can be Juan Soto and be an All-Star at 19.

And like usual, you're hearing about how exciting the prospects are for this team, how the Rays has people on the way that are gonna set the league on fire, etc etc. And at this rate, they have to know the drill. It's no guarantee they'll get to play in the new, better stadium because you don't know that it won't get delayed due to some money issue. There's also the possibility that these kids will either A.) be traded for a rental and have to kick around a tougher system, or B.) be traded to a competitor AS a rental the year before it comes time for the Rays to pay them. There are great people in this farm system, no doubt, but I don't know how many of them will truly become Rays heroes, because this franchise is not built to sustain long careers. You're seeing the Baltimore Orioles become the kind of team that can sign people to long-term deals because they have the money now. I predict that Bob Nutting will pass the torch in a couple years and the Pirates will be able to do this. And when this happens, the Rays are screwed. The guys they're usually compared to have called their bluff, and they can't do a thing about it.

I will continue to be critical of how the Rays run things until they prove that they have a vested interest in rewarding players who aren't about to do something illegal. And so hopefully they learn from this year and don't continue to keep making the same mistakes, though...knowing them I doubt it.

Coming Tonight: One of a handful of young pitchers trying to set up the next era of Nats baseball.

Thumbing the Line

 

There's all this talk about how Shohei Ohtani's probably winning an MVP while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, yet nothing about how Luis Arraez is probably gonna lead the NL in hits with a busted thumb.

I mean, that is the one aspect that has held back Arraez's season in one way or another. He hurt his thumb, and that's not only impeded on his ability to play defense at 2nd, or even at 1st, but it's made it hard for him to be more than just a contact guy. He's not gonna win a batting title this year, even if he still finishes around .300. And he's gonna finish with his lowest OPS since 2021, undoubtedly. This is ultimately Arraez on a rehab year, and once he gets the rest of the offseason to let the thumb heal and not go right back into the wringer every day, he'll be able to come back in full force for 2025.

But...let's be absolutely clear. Luis Arraez is still leading the NL in hits, with 166. He's not got the whole league down, thanks to what will inevitably be Bobby Witt Jr,'s first of many 200+ hit seasons, but he's leading in the NL, and will at least get that on his resume rather than hitting .333 like usual. And, like Ohtani, even if all he is is just a hard-hitting, reliable DH...that's still really good. You still get to play him basically every day and have him join in on the fun, all while you get to start healthy players in the infield. You keep the .300 hitter in the lineup while Cronenworth, Machado, Bogaerts and now rookie Mason McCoy get to hit as well. It's a win-win. 

Apart from Arraez, the Padres are still in great shape heading into the last month of the season. Manny Machado's fully hot now, and heading for a 25+ homer year, which would be his ninth. Jurickson Profar is 20 RBIs away from what would be his first career 100+ RBI year, and he's on a decent enough pace to do it. Jackson Merrill and his multi-tool debut season is looking to collect during awards week, while Dylan Cease eyes a strikeout title in addition to his fourth consecutive 200+ K year, without even mentioning that 11 more will give him 1000 career strikeouts. Jason Adam, Tanner Scott, Bryan Hoeing and Martin Perez have made this pitching staff even better than it already was. And there is a nonzero probability that Fernando Tatis Jr. would be ready for the playoffs.

Even for a team who's at best looking at a wild card spot, the Padres have so much to be excited about, and feel much more genuine than they did arguably in the 'go broke for Seidler' years. I'm not sure how far they'll go ultimately, but they're a really impressive team that outdid a lot of people's expectations.

Coming Tomorrow- The Pirates gave him up for Chris Archer, which I suppose they kinda regret about now, even if they've both been injured an awful lot. 

Heim and a Half

 

A couple of years ago they did a season of Hard Knocks during the regular season, and they did it with the Arizona Cardinals, who were supposed to be a great team that year with Kyler Murray and J.J. Watt and all, and then...that team ended up being really bad, and so the last couple episodes of the season of television were like '...shit, what other storylines do we have left here?'

That's kinda what it feels like for the Rangers this year. They're coming off a World Series win, they just hosted the All-Star Game, and their season's basically over already. They're well under .500 with no shot at the wild card race, and they just have a month to like...do what they can. Y'know, not the season we thought we'd be getting, but there's still more to do, so...here we are.

So here are some loose storylines you might see from the Rangers during the last month of the season-

-Corey Seager looking to set a new career single-season home run record. One more and he's at his third 30+ home run season in a row, but five more and he's at a new career high for him. A 35+ homer year for Seager is well within reach, and will continue to light the path of Seager's excellent run in Arlington.

-David Robertson slowly makes his way up the relief strikeouts list. The other night he passed Mariano Rivera, and is now at 1,137 career Ks. 6 more and he beats Francisco Rodriguez for the #11 spot on the list, then he's 23 away from topping Lindy McDaniel to make his way into the top 10. With no certainty that he'll be returning next year, Robertson is making every appearance count. 

-The return of Jack Leiter, now back up in the majors upon the opening of a rotation spot. His first start back was decent, he only gave up 2 earned runs and struck out 4, but he's gonna need more than that to bring his ERA down and start pitching like the scouts said he would.

-Whether Max Scherzer or Jacob deGrom will have any more input this season. deGrom seemed close not too long ago, and we haven't heard a thing from him this year. Scherzer looked so good midyear and is now once again fighting injuries to get back.

-The platoon of Jonah Heim and Carson Kelly. Heim has been pretty strong, if not at 2023 levels, this year, with 11 homers and 50 RBIs, but since coming over from Detroit, Kelly's been hitting .300. True, his old team's doing better right now, but Kelly's been well utilized for the Rangers, and may be a decent perennial backup for this team. 

Other than that, there may not be much else for Rangers fans. Luckily, there's another sports team in the Arlington area to disappoint these people starting from next weekend.

Coming Tonight: If it weren't for that pesky thumb injury he'd be...hitting, uh...MORE than .300. Which he is currently hitting. 

It's About To Get Lowder in Here

 

Tomorrow, the Cincinnati Reds will start the future of the franchise, 2023 draft pick Rhett Lowder, in an MLB game...alongside the future of the franchise Elly de la Cruz...while filling in for future of the franchise Hunter Greene...you're beginning to see why I'm hesitant to declare this a turning point, right?

The Reds and the Orioles are two very similar teams, who have had similar prospect rollout trajectories. First the catcher, who comes out strong and eventually becomes an everyday man, then a starting pitcher who, despite some injury struggles, wows people all over the league, then a second starting pitcher who flirts with greatness but keeps getting injured, then a shortstop prospect who, upon a sophomore year, takes off and becomes an MLB star. But the difference is that Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday have had way more depth than just their entrances. The things that were sort of working before are now really working in 2024, and someone who was a mediocre fill-in guy like Anthony Santander is now one of the best power hitters in baseball. 

The Reds, meanwhile, haven't been able to build because they keep running into setback after setback. Matt McLain and Brandon Williamson have been injured all year, Hunter Greene got hurt right when his Cy Young case was taking off, Ashcraft and Lodolo have battled injuries again, and now Candelario, Fraley and Fairchild are all on the IL. When the O's brought up Holliday, they did so because he was ready, and he was the next step in the evolution of the team. The Reds are bringing up Lowder because for the second year in a row, they literally have no other healthy options. Their entire Opening Day starting rotation is hurt. And the rotation the Reds are now going with consists of Carson Spiers, Nick Martinez, Julian Aguiar, Jakob Junis, and...Rhett Lowder, so great of you to join us.

Essentially, the anchor of the rotation is Martinez, as the veteran presence with enough decent seasons under his belt. Martinez was phased out of a starting role in San Diego due to better options appearing, but he was always able to start games, and the Reds knew this when they signed him. So once people started getting hurt, Martinez was the next choice for a good starting weapon, and honestly he's been decent enough. He's got a 5.47 ERA in 10 starts, but he's eating innings and still has 37 Ks. If Brent Suter weren't hurt right now he'd be in this role. 

The goal, of course, is for this team to be healthy for long enough to not need all these reserve options and just keep trucking on that pace. But Greene, Abbott, Lodolo and Ashcraft subscribe to the 'throw hard and hopefully the arm gets off easy' theory, and that hasn't gone well for them. I hope Lowder's a little sturdier but who even knows? 

I'm just saying that if we need yet another 'future of the franchise' to come down here and try and save this team, the problem might be the franchise itself. 

Coming Tomorrow- Last year he caught for a World Series team, this year he's just trying to catch up.

Alongside the Successor

 

It's funny that a few years ago, when M.J. Melendez was platooning with Salvador Perez it didn't really work because Melendez wasn't a very good defensive catcher, and now platooning with Freddy Fermin works because Fermin's a great multi-tool guy who's great behind the plate. While Melendez is just...in the outfield, watching the whole thing happen. Glad that it happened, wishing it was him.

I didn't think we'd get to a point where both Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin could be succeeding together, I thought one would be used in lieu of the decline of the other. But Perez, while still a terrific power hitter, has been taking more reps at DH so that Fermin, who's hitting .300 with 36 RBIs, can be in the lineup as well. It works for all involved parties. The 29-year-old Fermin can have a full season of one of his prime years, while Perez stays in the lineup and continues his run as the pillar of the team. Fermin, even on a team with Bobby Witt Jr., is statistically the best defender on the team, and he's one of many great defenders helping the Royals stay afloat this year. Perez, meanwhile, is looking at another 100+ RBI year, with 25 homers already. Having one or the other is good enough, but having both have made the Royals as strong as they are.

And it's not just them that have caused this team to breathe up the neck of the Guardians for a division title. Vinnie Pasquantino is fourth on the league RBI charts with 97. Bobby Witt's looking at a 200+ hit season, as well as a 30-30 season if he keeps this up. The rotation is still very strong. And the aggressive yet relaxed trade deadline mentality brought great seasons from Paul de Jong, Lucas Erceg and Michael Lorenzen over to KC, where they've outdone even some of the bigger names of the deadline. This team has gained ground where the Twins and Guardians have stuttered, and if it weren't for yesterday they'd have taken first.

And yet...now you're seeing the smallest cracks. Cole Ragans and Michael Lorenzen both left starts with injury fears, and Lorenzen might be missing time. If this team didn't have Alec Marsh and Kris Bubic ready to go I'd be worried but Ragans especially would be a big blow to this team. They already lost Hunter Harvey after he was rolling, and hopefully there isn't more to come. Not when they're this close.

The Royals are very close to proving a lot of people wrong, and landing a crucial position in the postseason picture. It could fall back the other way, but if they stay at it they could take the division and completely flip the script.

Coming Tonight: One of the many people called upon to plug up the holes in the Reds' rotation.

The Next-Nearest Competitors

 

The playoff race, as it stands, is looking a bit more solidified than usual. Meltdowns are possible, shakeups are possible, but there are large gaps in the standings between teams that are likely in and teams that would normally be scratching at the bit to get in. The NL Central scrum has dissipated and is, at most, like 4.5 games back from the pack, and at least completely cooked. The Mariners have the same record as the Tigers, and are hoping for a divisional berth rather than a wild card.

So basically, the two teams on the bubble right now, who have the greatest chance of sneaking into the playoffs were something to go wrong with current wild card competitors, are the Red Sox and Mets. Two very different teams with very different paths. 

The Sox have essentially been at third place all year, because the AL East, aside from the top two spots, has been pretty set in stone. It was clear that the Sox weren't gonna go for the top division spot, as the Yankees and Orioles outmatch them in terms of depth, but they've still managed to be a fairly sturdy and impressive team this year. It's been helpful knowing that Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu and David Hamilton are all long term guys for this team. Hamilton was a shock breakout, as Trevor Story was gearing up to have a comeback at short, then suddenly he gets hurt immediately and the infield's in jeopardy. Not only is Hamilton an impressive hitter with some contact perks, but he's stolen 33 bases, leading the team by just 1, and he, like Rafaela, has been an upgrade as a defensive infielder. The Sox have needed people like this to play everyday and build the team, and they're now looking like a serious favorite down the road. Y'know, a lot like the Jays were supposed to be.

But stopping them from competing this year has been some rotation inefficiency, some really rough patches [like a lot of August honestly], and the fact that their wild card competitors are just better right now. It very well could happen, and it hasn't been ruled out yet, but at the moment, and at this current pace, the Sox may just miss October.

The Mets, meanwhile, didn't have the straight line journey that Boston had this year. They were dead in May, and then suddenly with help from Grimace, Jose Iglesias and a latin pop hit, the Mets were back. I never thought the addition of Jose Iglesias would be that much of a difference maker, but the former Tigers infielder has been excellent this year, hitting .325 with 54 hits, 21 RBIs and 3 homers. This guy has channeled so much moral delight, just from his OMG song and his imitable clubhouse demeanor. He's gotta be thrilled to be back in the majors and playing for a competitor again, as well as starting virtually every day and relegating Jeff McNeil to the outfield. Good for him, honestly.

The Mets have both Lindor and Alonso hitting amazingly, Nimmo and Martinez also racking up RBIs, Manaea and Peterson starting gems, and Francisco Alvarez being the clutch difference maker. This Mets team is behaving like a well-oiled machine, and if they hadn't burst into a cold spell while the Braves have started streaking, I'd see them as more of a lock for the playoffs. But I do worry that things are gonna take a downturn, as they tend to in September for the Mets, and they're gonna lose sight of the wild card spot. It may just come down to whether they can catch the Braves again, and if so they've got a shot, but they really need to catch fire again for that to happen.

It'd be cool if one or more if these teams made it this year. They're so close, and in a month a lot could happen.

Coming Tomorrow- It's nice to have the luxury of taking over for a legendary catcher while said catcher is still right there helping you along.

With a Vengeance

 

Y'know, earlier this year the Diamondbacks were circling fourth. It was a pretty big deal. Y'know, they made a World Series last year, then in May they were beat up and circling the drain, the fear was that the other teams had figured out Corbin Carroll, the Giants were surging. Wasn't looking great for 'em.

And then...right at the end of June something clicked. I'm not sure exactly what happened, but since the start of July the Diamondbacks have only lost thirteen games. Only blew one series. And now they're leading the wild card race and three games behind the Dodgers. Not only are the D-Backs a playoff team, it's just turning into a matter of where exactly they'll seed at this point.

And the most crucial piece of this team at the moment might be Corbin Carroll, who, after having a really rough start to the year, is finally hitting again, and has an August OPS of .914, with 14 RBIs and 6 homers this month as well. This team knew Carroll was gonna be the guy, which is why they gave him all that money before he really got going. It was somewhat worrying when he struggled earlier this year. But they knew he'd bounce back. And so he has, right when the rest of the team is getting the hang of things as well. 

Very important as well that Eugenio Suarez has been surging since the beginning of the spike in wins. Suarez has 20 homers and 79 RBIs this year, and has continued his haphazard but reliable offensive dominance, despite some getting used to the new terrain. Zac Gallen just had a masterful start and is back to where he was last year. Justin Martinez seems to have taken over the ninth inning and already feels like a pro at closing games. I don't know where this team was before but they're incredible now.

And the insane thing about this D-Backs team right now, is that they are doing all of this, and still winning, without Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno or Christian Walker. Marte is the reason they got this far, and they're without him as the stretch tenses up. They have Kevin Newman and Luis Guillorme covering second, both are admirable options, especially Newman. Josh Bell was brought over specifically to cover for Walker, and he's got 4 homers and 11 RBIs as a Diamondback. Adrian Del Castillo got called up to replace Moreno and he's been an absolute force, hitting .341 with 3 homers and 14 RBIs in 13 games. This is the kind of thing that would slow any other team down, and the D-Backs have this energy that really can't be quenched.

The prevailing theory is that those guys will be back by October, which will give them infield depth, DH depth, catching depth, and an incredibly difficult lineup to get around. This team could be just as deadly as last year's in the playoffs if they hit the right momentum. So all future opponents...tread with caution.

Coming Tonight: A rookie base-stealing defensive infield highlight for a team fighting to stay alive.

Hit or Get Off the Pot

 

And so, as the Mariners got to the point in their schedule where they only have three teams left to play with records over .500, the team...began...to actually...hit.

Look, it's not a full renaissance, but you're seeing this team actually picking up offensive productivity thanks to the additions of Randy Arozarena, Justin Turner and Victor Robles. There was an embarrassing mid-August skid, but the M's seem to be on the other end of it now, and have matched up really well against the Rays. You're seeing production from Luke Raley, Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco, obviously Cal Raleigh, and now Arozarena that's really making a difference at the moment. 

But, the issue at hand here is that I don't know if it's going to be enough.

Simply put, the Astros are a better team right now, they have better luck, and they have a better lineup. The Mariners have them beat in one department, and that is pitching. Better relief pitching, better starting pitching. Bryan Woo, essentially the #5 man this year, has been extraordinary. In 16 games he's 6-2 with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.810 WHIP. If he'd started the year with that he'd be getting Cy Young eyes on him. Now he's just part of the crew, one of many killing it. Bryce Miller struck out 10 yesterday, he's getting his groove back. Logan Gilbert's still killing it. Castillo and Kirby still have had strong starts this year. The rotation combined has an 11.8 WAR. Comparatively, the Astros' rotation has a 9.5 WAR. 

And if the Mariners were gonna get hot at any time, it would be right now. The Astros are playing a team better than them right now, those Fightin' Phils, and it's not going great for them. The Phillies lit up Justin Verlander last night, something that, if anything, proves they're not dying out yet. But after this, the Astros have to play the Royals, the Reds and the Diamondbacks, three teams that aren't exactly laying down and dying. While the Mariners get to play the Angels, A's and Cardinals. They are 3.5 games behind the Astros for the division, 5.5 games behind the last wild card spot., and they're rolling. 

This is doable. It can work. It can happen. The Mariners just need to keep hitting. They've made some headway, Julio's playing like himself again, multiple people are showing up. They've gotta stay at it. The season depends on it, and my probability of enjoying this postseason depends on it. Because it's unlikely that both the Astros and the Mariners make the playoffs this year. There will only be room for one, and the Astros aren't gonna make it easy. 

It would be amazing if this happened. I'd absolutely love it. So let's see what these guys can do.

Coming Tomorrow- The sophomore slump is a thing. That is, til he gets going.

A Genuine Nothing Sandwich

 

I swear, that's what the Cardinals are this year. Masyn Winn is the top bun, Ryan Helsley is the bottom bun, and there's a whole lot of nothing in the middle. .500 record with a month and change to go, 5 games back from a wild card spot, 10 games back from the division, the hero just hurt himself again and the rotation looks like an event organizer leading zumba at a retirement home. Everybody will go 'look at the Cardinals, the Cardinals are still a factor'.

...are they? Are they REALLY?

So just to put it into perspective, the rotation right now is Sonny Gray, who has 11 wins and 179 strikeouts but has been melting down late way too often, Miles Mikolas, who just doesn't have it this year despite leading the team in IP, Kyle Gibson, who's a solid enough innings eater but doesn't have much of an edge this year, Erick Fedde, whose numbers have curiously gone down since he was traded to an actual baseball team, and Andre Pallante, who once again has done tremendously upon being moved to the rotation and is 6-5 with a 3.52 ERA. Pallante currently is the looker of the group. You're looking at potential playoff series' against teams like the Braves, the Brewers, the Padres and the Diamondbacks, and that rotation isn't really winning out against those ones. Look, these are pitchers who've had great careers, and who've done great things even this year, but they're outmatched. Kyle Gibson is not at the point in his career where he can be handed the ball in a win-or-die playoff scenario. The Orioles knew this last year. 

You've already seen the bits of the Cardinals lineup that were working earlier this year begin to decay. Nolan Gorman fell off and got demoted. Brendan Donovan's average fell to the .260s. Tommy Pham has mellowed incredibly since rejoining the team. Burleson's...fine I guess, but not as hot as he was in June. And now so many people are hurt that they're trying Jordan Walker and Victor Scott again, and, surprise surprise, they're still not MLB ready. Having one guy like that last year was disappointing enough, and now there's two. Arenado's doing way better than he was earlier in the year, but Goldy's very much looking past his prime. 

And yet this team has a nonzero percent chance of landing a playoff spot. It's not the likeliest outcome, the Mets and Braves are still fighting over the last spot, but if they both fall apart the Cardinals would be the next at bat. And...I don't think they really deserve it. It's not the first time the Cardinals have weaseled into the conversation without the team to back it up, but they are notorious for catching a little momentum in September and using that to go long. This team, as flawed as it is, could do that. I don't think they will, but...this is the exact kind of team that COULD piss me off. 

The Cardinals have to play the Padres, Yankees, Brewers and Mariners next. If they still look halfway decent after that, then we'll talk.

Coming Tonight: The last Mariners starter I haven't done a custom of yet. 

Kyle Farmer Refuted

 

[Like the Darkness one from earlier, sometimes the perfect pun lines itself up and I kinda have to take it]

Jose Miranda's career so far: a surprising breakout season at a corner infield spot during a decent year for the Twins, then an appalling sophomore season that he spends most of in the minors, resulting in him not making the team out of camp this year. Something that has plagued Miranda since coming up is that unlike other MLB 'nepo babies', he's not defined by his relation to a former MLB player but rather his relation to a celebrity, namely his cousin, playwright and songwriter Lin-Manuel Miranda, who...suffice to say has some unnerving nepotism connections of his own if you know where to look. There's no proof that Miranda made it up in the majors, and got the opportunities he's gotten, solely because his cousin wrote one of the most profitable Broadway musicals of the last decade. But until this year, the gameplay wasn't outdoing the name.

Now, ultimately, Jose Miranda is succeeding as a major league force. He's hitting .299 this year with 100 hits in as many games, 46 RBIs and 9 homers. Clearly the Twins have been looking for someone to be that corner contact guy since parting ways with Luis Arraez, and while Miranda clearly is not the everyman Arraez is, he's been one of the best Twins performers this year, and he's currently their highest active WAR performer on the hitting side. Ultimately, plugging Miranda in at third has been a very helpful tactic, and the team has been better for it.

That's the other thing, despite the loss of Carlos Correa, this Twins team has a pretty impressive number of great infield machinations right now. Miranda, Carlos Santana, Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis are the designated starters, but all of Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer and Austin Martin are in play as well. Castro made an All-Star team as a utility man, and Farmer, while not what he was with Cincinnati, is still useful as a bench piece. But having Santana and Lewis in the same infield, while both are hitting home runs, is a pretty great thing. Lewis has cooled down a little, and has settled at 15 homers, but you never know when he'll get hot again. Santana, meanwhile, continues his streak of seasons with 18-homers or more [not counting pandemic-shortened seasons], and looks to crack 20 for the ninth time in his career. 

The Twins, ultimately, have been cooling down in the last week due to their schedule getting tougher. Matches against the Padres and Cardinals didn't go well, and now they play the Braves and the red-hot Blue Jays. The Royals have lapped them in the standings, and even if they're both looking at playoff spots, getting the higher position is crucial if the Twins want to win a playoff series for the second year in a row. I do think they have a good enough team to manage, but doing it without Correa, Buxton or Ryan will be an uphill battle. Hopefully one or more of them comes back before October. 

But still, if Jose Miranda can keep the lights on while the big guns are hurt, that's not a bad thing either.

Coming Tomorrow- I met him when he played for the Twins. He wowed me when he played for the Phillies. And even now, he's still one of the most surprisingly durable pitchers in the game. 

One Way Ticket to Schwellenbach

 

[I've done the 'extreme music pun' thing so infrequently recently that when one comes along I need to jump on it. I make no apologies.]

I do wonder if the Braves would have been a better team this year had the injury bug not hit them like mad. Acuna, Albies, Harris, Riley, Strider, they all go down. So much of the crux of this season has been defined by replacement guys, people like Jarred Kelenic, Reynaldo Lopez, Travis d'Arnaud and Whit Merrifield, people who were not meant to play large roles in this team but were thrust into the circumstances. And this season continues to move on with the knowledge that these replacements can work, that d'Arnaud is probably having a better season than Murphy, that Lopez and Sale have been the aces this year [despite...fears of the contrary]. 

This is not the Braves team that people thought they'd be getting this year, but it's been a good enough one nonetheless. Moreover, Braves fans that thought they'd be rolling with a rotation of Strider-Fried-Sale-Morton-Elder have probably been more relieved that the Lopez-Sale-Fried-Morton-Schwellenbach arrangement has been pretty successful on its own. If anything, the strikeouts are still coming without Strider. Chris Sale's gonna have a 200-K season this year and probably vy for a Cy Young, which is...odd to me. There are seasons with Boston and Chicago where I think he deserved a Cy Young more than this year, and yet because of the sparser race it does seem like it's him right now. He does deserve one, yes, and he's likely a HOF talent, but...it's weird that this is his Cy Young season and the others weren't. It's like Al Pacino getting his Oscar for Scent of a Woman. Like this is good and all, but...we've all seen Godfather II, right? He's incredible there.

I think about what Spencer Schwellenbach is doing this season, he's got 94 Ks in 14 starts and a 1.032 WHIP, and I think about what would happen in a season where he, Fried and Strider were all healthy, all got to pitch 32 games, and were all on. Would anybody be able to stop them? I'd throw Sale in there as well but I don't know if he's at the point in his career where he can pitch consecutive 32-game seasons. This may be the last taste of his peak. Fried, Strider and Schwellenbach are all very much still there, and could be a three-headed dragon that could pain NL East competitors next year. And that's just if THEY stay healthy. If the Braves get full seasons out of Acuna, Albies and Harris next year, that could rectify a lot of what made this season a disappointment.

But it's an 'if' at this point. The Braves are a talented, well-run, well-contracted organization that just cannot land upon the luck necessary to make them a dynasty. It could happen, and it should happen...but unless things change drastically, it might not even happen this year.

Coming Tonight- He may not be the family breadwinner, but he's boosted his career in a big way just this season alone.

Gavin Could Wait

 

When the Dodgers called up Gavin Lux in 2019, it was thought to be a killswitch move. The Dodgers were cruising thanks to Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler and Enrique Hernandez, and now Lux would be the next homegrown step, along with newer pieces like Will Smith, to cement the franchise's landmark status. His getting off to a decent enough start was expected, as was his minimized role in the Dodgers' sole WS win with this regime.

Since then? Lux has had one truly great season, a bunch of injury-plagued seasons and this current year, where it took him ages to heat up and he's only now gotten to where he should have been all along. He's 26 years old, and he's really only had a handful of success under his belt. In LA, where if somebody isn't working they can just buy somebody better. 

Still, Lux has proved himself a strong competitor, especially in a period where many important Dodger pieces are either hurt, slumping or simply in flux. Lux is hitting .249 on the season, but since the all-star break he's been hitting .333 with 36 hits, 21 RBIs and 7 home runs. This is the kind of pace people wish he was getting to earlier, and hopefully he stays there as the Dodgers rebound towards September. Having Lux in place now, especially as people like Kiké Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Chris Taylor can only do so much filling in for infield positions, definitely helps.

Now the team has Mookie Betts and Gavin Lux back, and are beginning to see Freddie Freeman come back from his family emergency. Betts has dipped under .300, and is taking a little while to come back, but it's still important that he's back. Muncy's immediately power hitting again, he's already got 5 RBIs and 2 homers since the return. Teoscar's chasing 30, Flaherty and Kopech have been brilliant since coming over, Kershaw is at the very least keeping his ERA under 4...oh and Shohei Ohtani's got a 40-40 season and wants to go 50-50. A lot is happening in Dodgerville, and even if this clearly isn't the mightiest Dodgers team in the past few years, they've got a lot of big things to accomplish before the season's out, and they're gonna get it done.

I'd love for this to be the beginning of a strong run for Lux, if he becomes a perennial guy for them. They're clearly hoping for him to be this everyday hero, and right now he's playing really well without being Bobby Witt. We'll see how far he can go.

Coming Tomorrow- He's not the first Braves starter with a really long name to strike out a ton of people, but he might be the most crucial. 

Pray We Never Meet Again

 

Sometimes, the MLB schedule hands us unintentional previews of playoff matches. In 2022, there was a very exciting Phillies-Astros series late in the regular season, one the Phils actually won, which set the stage for the WS one where the Astros could actually leg it out thanks to Martin Maldonado leaning into pitches. Last year, the Diamondbacks crushed the Rangers in a late August series, then paid the piper in October when the Rangers came back to win a World Series against them. The Yankees and Astros always treat their regular season meetings as potential preludes to postseason series, which is why it's been so nice that the Yanks have been kicking Houston's ass recently.

Yet right now, there's a series going on that features two teams that very well could play themselves in the postseason. The division leading Houston Astros, and the 2nd place and surprisingly falling Baltimore Orioles.

These are two teams that, ideally, should be going in separate directions. The Orioles were so strong throughout the season, and have such promise, that you hate to see them dropping games to the Mets, Blue Jays and Padres. The Astros, meanwhile, have so little of a story this year that you honestly wish they had more trouble waltzing to the top yet again. The Mariners held onto 1st for so long, then the bottom fell out when they realized they had to hit as well. The Astros just...waited for their lineup to start hitting, and for their rotation to get healthy, and they acted like it was all part of the plan from the start. Therefore, of the two, in my opinion, the wrong team is doing well right now.

Ultimately, this series has been the kind of tense back and forth you might expect. Game 1 was an infuriating shutout thanks to a Astros pitcher, Spencer Arrighetti, who seems to only be good in these crucial settings. Game 2 was listless for a while then punched through by an Anthony Santander grand slam. And yesterday's Game 3 was equally exciting, with Framber Valdez quieting the O's as Pena and Altuve hit 'em out, thanks to Albert Suarez's solid, but imperfect, pitching, only for Jackson Holliday to pinch hit a 3-RBI blast to quiet the Astros. These are two competitive teams who both want the glory, and while the O's have the edge at the moment, the Astros aren't gonna want to take the quiet way out.

The Astros are seeing continued dominance from people like Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz, Framber Valdez, Alex Bregman and Hunter Brown. Not all of these guys were playing well all year, but they certainly are now. Meanwhile, the Orioles have seen Colton Cowser falter and then spring back to life, Eloy Jimenez suddenly find his contact bat as a DH, Jackson Holliday finally figure out the majors, and Gunnar Henderson continue to cement his league-wide greatness. 

Both teams have the opportunity for a great postseason run. If you think this series is tense now, if they meet again in the postseason it could be even bloodthirstier. I'd obviously be rooting for the O's to finally triumph, but we all know that the Astros won't make it easy for them.

Coming Tonight: Similarly, a guy who took a few months to fully come back from his 2023 injury, and now he's a big part of his own team's playoff push.

With Plenty of Cushion

 

At different points during this season, the Dodgers, Guardians and Phillies had commanding, week-long leads over their divisions. And here we are, heading into the homestretch, and the first place team with the biggest lead over its competition is the Milwaukee Brewers. A team in arguably one of the most competitive divisions in the league.

It's not that every team in the NL Central is good, it's that all five of them won't rest until they've completely exhausted any attempt to compete. That's why even as the Pirates are 8 games back from the Wild Card spot and 3 games back from 2nd place, they're still trying. The majority of the division is under .500, but not by much. Nobody in the NL Central is gonna lose 100 games this year, and they're all aware of it. So all this business at the moment of teams scratching and clawing just to go upwards in a division that doesn't matter is just to exhaust the possibility that the door is still open. It could be. The Padres, Braves, Mets and D-Backs could all fall apart and make it possible for an NL Central team to bounce in. 

But at the moment, it's clear that there's only one wholly excellent team in this division, and that is the Brewers. Right now they have multiple multifaceted lineup pieces, three starters who I'd trust in a postseason series today, three of the best relievers in baseball without any hyperbole, and one of the most satisfying rookies in a year that also has Jackson Holliday and Paul Skenes in it. And they're doing all of this without Christian Yelich. 

Might I remind you that the last time a team built this much momentum without their marquee star, it was 2021, and it was the Atlanta Braves. They won without Acuna. And the Brewers have the opportunity to exceed their usual playoff finishing spot without Yelich.

So, let's be clear: Peralta, Rea, Myers. Not the Milwaukee Big 3 I figured we'd see so soon after Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta. I thought Rea was decent enough last year, and while Peralta's a key guy he's had control issues. But these three have been truly excellent this year. Peralta's got 8 wins and 164 Ks, along with a 3.86 ERA. Rea's 11-4 with a 3.52 ERA and 108 Ks. And now rookie Tobias Myers has completely locked in, and is 6-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 90 Ks in 20 games. And let's be clear here, Aaron Civale and Frankie Montas are no slouches either this year. Montas has been really strong since arriving in Milwaukee, he's 2-0 with a 3.57 ERA and 21 Ks. Civale is shaky but still reliable enough. This is a pretty sharp rotation to go into a playoff race with, especially considering this rotation once had D.L. Hall, Bryse Wilson and Joe Ross in it.

Aside from that, you have Jackson Chourio finally figuring out MLB hitting, Adames and Contreras continuing their excellent Milwaukee runs, Sal Frelick branching out at the plate in addition to his strong defensive work, Gary Sanchez and Rhys Hoskins finally heating up, and Devin Williams comfy in the ninth again. I am getting a vibe from this Brewers team that the last several haven't given me, and I think they could surprise some people this fall. It does take the correct circumstances, but if they keep this momentum going, they could run it all the way.

Coming Tomorrow- A catcher that is one of many on his team just refusing to have a down season.

The Guardians' Skeleton Crew

 

I know that it's easy to point out all the injured Dodgers pitchers or all the Orioles starters who won't appear again this year, but people forget that the Guardians are a 1st place team this year, overwhelmingly so, without Shane Bieber, and with minimal input from all of Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Alex Cobb. Cobb was traded at the deadline while injured, made two pretty nice starts and immediately went back on the IL. McKenzie and Allen tried but couldn't cut it. Carrasco isn't what he was in 2015 and got hurt. 

So the Guardians rotation is currently consisting of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Ben Lively, Matt Boyd...and, uh, a free space. Which is what happens when you flip Xzavion Curry for nothing. I'd assume Joey Cantillo's gonna get called back up eventually but after that last start I'm not even sure. Who else on the active roster can start games? One of the relievers? They gonna call up someone we're not thinking about? Is a waiver deal gonna happen? 

I mean, yes, the Guardians can hit their way out of anything at this point, and have the bullpen to leg it out, but this is not the rotation you'd think a sure competitor would have at this point. Gavin Williams got lit up by the Yankees the other day, and he's been in shoddy shape all year. Boyd had been solid since the call-up, but in a way that makes people wish for his mid-2010s Tigers numbers. The surprise depth of last year seems to be counterintuitive. Allen and McKenzie did their best but don't have it, and aren't the immediate option [though honestly they really should go with McKenzie].

The saving grace of the bullpen has been Ben Lively, who the Guardians picked up on a flyer and has been surprisingly consistent. He's made all his starts and has gone 10-8, with a 3.68 ERA and 98 Ks. He's not as flashy as someone like Williams or Bibee, but he can stay in for a while and keep people guessing without overexerting himself. This is a guy who only had so much success in the Korean leagues, and made his way back through consistent work in Louisville, ironically given that the Reds initially drafted Lively back in the day. He just worked hard, played the system, and eventually he got back to the majors and got to start games again. It didn't happen overnight but he worked hard enough at it, and now he's a crucial starter for a competitor.

The Guardians have a month left to pin down three or more trustworthy postseason starters, or else things are gonna get really hairy in October. Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan and Jhonkensy Noel are all looking ready for the postseason, and it's mostly just looking like a race to see how big Ramirez's season is gonna be, regardless of the fact that he's essentially playing for third in the MVP race at this point. This is a well-constructed, well-managed and well-prepared team, that could do great things if this rotation thing works out. 

If not...I can only hope this team figures out how to make things work going forward. Cause that's something you just need to get over.

Coming Tonight: A rookie for a team whose rotation was similarly sparse, who's become one of the marquee hurlers, almost overnight.

Seeding Well is the Best Revenge

 

As the resident Yankee fan who grew up in the Philly area in the late 2000s, I do have some feelings about the picture of 2024 that is slowly forming. And my feelings are that if the Yankees and Phillies meet in the postseason, I'll be shocked.

My two favorite teams, the Yanks and Phils, are among the top contenders in baseball right now, as they have been all season. And that's been a nice luxury. It hasn't been since roughly 2011 that both of these teams have been this consistently good at the same time. The mid-2010s, where both teams were pretty rough, definitely made that gap seem longer, but the last few years, where the Phils have snuck their way in while the Yanks have talked a big game but flopped when it mattered, have been refreshing. And now here we are. The Yankees have the immortal Soto-Judge combo, the Phils have an excellent rotation and Harper, Turner and Bohm on top of their games. You're also seeing great seasons from strong veterans; Gerrit Cole is finally back to his baseline material after rehabbing, as he shut down the Guardians this week, while Aaron Nola's having another strong season of consistent, long starts. 

If this were 15 years ago, both would be guaranteed crucial spots in the postseason. But it's not. Thanks to the expanded playoffs, if you're good in the regular season you have to hope that you still have momentum after a week 1 bye, then immediately play teams that have been able to conserve momentum and hope you're a better team than them at this point. The only teams that have been able to break this system are the ones that get a low seed and build momentum throughout October, like the Phils have, or teams that are immune to weakness and are routinely excellent in October, anyway, like those damned Astros. 

So both the Yanks and Phils, if they continue at their current paths, will likely notch high seeds in the playoff picture, meaning they both have a chance of losing steam over the bye and coming back to lose to a competitor that, on paper, isn't a better team than them. If that happens, and the ongoing narrative of the season is undone yet again, I'll go mad. 

There is a solution to this, even if Rob Manfred will never think of it. During the wild card series, the four advancing teams play a three-game series against an opponent of their choice. For the competitors, it's played like a Spring Training game, primarily to get loose, or even to stretch out the bench subs and lower key guys, in an effort to ensure nobody gets hurt. For whichever team gets to play them, probably a lesser team they matched well enough against, it's an opportunity to showcase players who may be free agents, or trade targets, or provide previews of young players that could be major factors the following years. Essentially making it clear how they would do in October. The games don't count for anything, but the winner gets a friendly prize from the opposing city [i.e., the Phils bet a surplus of soft pretzels, while the Marlins throw in a whole bunch of fresh seafood or something]. And this way, the top seeds don't die out immediately, and keep the playoffs exciting rather than a World Series between six seeds. 

But, again, Manfred doesn't realize anything is wrong. It took mass protests early in the season for him to begin to bug Nike, who will likely have improved uniforms for 2025 [but only slightly]. But this is still a working model to him, even if the same thing keeps happening. So even if teams like the Yanks and Phils die out early, which I do not want to happen, he'll still assume there'll be a year where it doesn't. Which...is possible, but the circumstances might need to be changed in order for that to happen. 

So yes. I am really happy that both my teams are doing this well with a month or so left in the 2024 season. But I'm worried that a terrific regular season is all they'll have to show, considering the result of the previous playoff schematics. Hopefully this year is different. 

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically a former Phillie from the dark ages, going from out of the leagues to a swingman with Cincinnati to a crucial starter for a league standout.

This Time Next Year Though...

 

So, to recap: top infield prospect Amael Amador, top base-stealing prospect Greg Jones, top pitching prospect Tanner Gordon, top outfield prospect Jordan Beck and top catching prospect Drew Romo...have accumulated a combined -1.7 WAR. Comparatively, Kris Bryant has a -0.7 WAR. It's embarrassing. Signing one of the biggest free agent hitters did not work. How about bringing up the prospects? That didn't work either. I...can't fathom the Rockies luck sometimes. 

But I will say, what 2024 has taught us so far is that if a rookie is completely divebombing for you, there's a chance he may come around the following year. Because the best performers of 2024 have been people who came up last year and struggled. Michael Toglia wasn't ready last year, and now he's got 20 homers and a .489 SLG. Brenton Doyle played sloppily last year, now he's a foundational piece with 60 RBIs and 24 steals. Ezequiel Tovar was more 'decent' than anything last year, and now he's fully come into his own hitting .272 with 140 hits. 

And what's great is that the veterans on this team can tell you the same thing. Everyone remembers how hyped Ryan McMahon was at the start of the 2017 season, he was supposed to be what Trevor Story was the previous year. He wasn't. It took him two years to actually figure out contact hitting, and he's become the most important player on the roster. Brendan Rodgers also struggled during his 2019 call-up, and realized he needed to earn his place on the roster. Since then he's had some incredible seasons, including a 2022 gold glove campaign. 

The issue with Rodgers, though, has been his injury-plagued campaigns recently. He missed most of 2023, and spent a lot of this year rehabbing as well. I think now Rodgers has finally reached the point where he's fully back, as he's hitting .279 with 112 hits and 45 RBIs. His defense isn't what it was in 2022, but he's still a very helpful piece of a team that's trying desperately to reinvent itself.

And even if the kids do eventually develop, a lot of the same problems will persist. The Rockies spent all that money on several injured starters and a late career Kris Bryant who won't stay healthy. They have all that dedicated roster space and basically have to hope everyone else is cheap. I have no idea what this rotation will look like next year, because while most of these guys are sticking around, it's unclear who'll be healthy. Will Senza or Marquez be back? Will Feltner be ready? Or will it just be another steep drop-off?

At the very least, this tiered development strategy will ensure that the lineup eventually replenishes and that we get a fuller, more impressive Rockies team. It just may not happen overnight.

Coming Tonight: Dude just won his 150th game, and has finally managed to find his mojo again.

The Unlikeliest Spoiler

 

I've discussed before my designation of a team as a 'spoiler' when A.) it becomes clear that they're not going to compete, B.) the rest of their schedule seems to consist of only competitors or wild card hopefuls, and C.) they proceed to win a ton of games down the stretch specifically against teams that at one point sought to compete. Reaping the souls of teams that pegged themselves playoff teams, and making it clear they're true flaws. The usual spoiler team is the Mets, but seeing as they're actually competing this year [as evidenced by a HUGE series win against the Orioles], it's gonna have to be someone else. A team that's not good enough to be a good team, but tough enough for teams that may be better than them to let their guard down.

...Is it strange if I say this probably describes the A's this year?

I mean, yes, I know, the A's have a chance of losing 100 games this year, the possibility is out there if they have 27 more losses in them, which...with a team of their caliber, could happen. But just take a look at how they've done against competitive teams this year. You may have heard about how the Phillies series went, and how Lawrence Butler came alive against them. They also took some crucial games from the Astros after the ASG break, upset the A's during the Bay series, drilled the Jays, took two from the Mets, and have made the Rays look inadequate. And this is in addition to EIGHT wins against the Angels since the start of July. They've played the Angels nine times and won eight of those times. If things go well, the A's will have moved into fourth place, and could very well be the only AL West team aside from Houston willing to move up rather than crash further downward.

[Again, apologies to the Mariners, hope the Dan Wilson era goes a little better].

I'm not sure if it's stranger that the A's are able to do this, or that they're able to do this with a ton of nobodies. People like Joey Estes, Osvaldo Bido, Mitch Spence and Joe Boyle have been responsible for great recent starts. These people would normally be back in Triple-A, but they're helping the major league club stay alive. Max Schuemann has become one of the most valuable A's solely for how strong and speedy he's been as a middle infield piece. Zach Gelof has improved since the beginning of the year and has locked down 2nd base. Mason Miller and Brent Rooker are league talents this year. 

The A's are not in full Moneyball mode, but they can win games with this kind of team, and that's at least making the last month and a half of Oakland gameplay exciting. It's just a pity this is gonna be the note this team goes out on in the Bay area.

Coming Tomorrow- It took a while for this guy to come back from a 2023 injury, but...he's been a better part of this team than Kris Bryant, so..

Steele and Glass

 

So here's what's absolutely wild to me.

The NL Central race has looped and twisted so many times this season, without ever making it a surprise who's gonna end up in first. The Brewers are winning the division, we know this. But the saga to crown even ONE wild card team from this division has been ridiculous. I think virtually every single team in this division has had a turn at first, and all of them have had a turn at last. These teams have bobbed around like nobody, all for the opportunity to potentially edge out the Braves, Mets or Padres for a wild card spot. 

And the strange part, to me, is that the Cubs, who at one point absolutely bottomed out and laid there with virtually no shot, are basically the only NL Central team left with a shot at the wild card.

And it's not a 'by default' thing. The Cardinals, Reds and Pirates have all slowed down recently, to horrifying degrees, but it's not like the Cubs have just...stayed put. They've advanced. The Cubs are 15-13 since the ASG break, and they're 23-18 since July began. This run included huge wins against the Orioles, Cardinals, Royals and Twins, and opportunities for their big stars to come back into their own. 

I put it this way. The Cubs season bungeed and recoiled in the same time it took Justin Steele to get injured, come back, struggle and then click again. Steele is not fully at 2023 levels of excellence, and some early season starts took away from that, but he's still got a 3.10 ERA and 115 Ks in 20 starts. And that's really the thing about this rotation, there's a lot of people who've ebbed and flowed and it's really only now that they're all kind of hitting at once. Imanaga's back to a more consistent pace, only giving up 4 or less runs the last 5 starts. Hendricks has found the knack again and he's slowly getting his ERA back down. Assad is pretty much the only guy who's just been this consistent all year, and he's probably even better now than he was near the start. It's really only Taillon who's struggled lately, so having those four in great shape is at least a great ratio. 

Pretty much everything has finally fallen into place for this Cubs team. Swanson and Bellinger are back, and showing signs of productivity. Suzuki's hitting again and feeling like the guy the Cubs wanted all those years ago. PCA is very much Volpe in 2023, not offensively clicking yet but defensively incredible. All the new additions to the bullpen have turned the narrative around, and now that there's no longer a need for Hector Neris all involved parties can breathe easier. I think the issue for me is that there's no central offensive figure. Like the closest is Ian Happ but he's...fine, not blowing the doors off the place. Hoerner, Bellinger, now Paredes just haven't been that guy. But maybe they will.

The Cubs have the opportunity to push forward and land in the conversation again. I sincerely hope they take advantage of it before the division flips again.

Coming Tomorrow- I didn't think the A's could do 'defense-friendly infield specialist' at this stage of the rebuild, but here we are.

Out of the Frying Pan...

 

I dunno if Jake Burger wishes he was back in Chicago about now, but I think he definitely wishes he got traded somewhere other than Miami last year.

Not that it's going especially badly for him specifically. Burger has been a really hot power hitter lately, with a team leading 24 home runs and 55 RBIs. That's some very big numbers for a guy who always felt overshadowed in Chicago. The problem is that now Burger's one of the only horses in town for the Marlins. So many people have left that it's really down to Burger, Jesus Sanchez and Xavier Edwards right now, and that's basically it. People have called the White Sox a triple-A team this year, but the Marlins are getting very close just with the amount of Jacksonville-tier players that are being truly relied upon right now.

Like, to give you an example, with all the rotation options either hurt or traded away, the Marlins are now getting creative with who's around to start games. You've got some people you might guess would be in the mix, like Edward Cabrera, who's had some really nice starts lately, and Roddery Munoz who's been up since roughly May. But then things get interesting. You have Max Meyer, who had 3 really good early season starts and didn't make it back til midyear, for a reason still unclear to many. You have Adam Oller, who bottomed out with the A's a few years ago and isn't doing much better here. And, most intriguingly, you've had some excellent material coming from a guy who'd otherwise be stuck in Jacksonville, a sharp 24-year-old named Valente Bellozo, who's got a 2.45 ERA in 6 starts and has the highest probability of any of these guys to actually factor into the future of the team. Cabrera too, but even then you never known when he'll be pawned for parts.

And so Burger really hasn't had trouble standing out, because he's still decent enough even if the Marlins aren't. But if you look at the White Sox, their first baseman isn't having the same luck.

Andrew Vaughn was given 1st base when Jose Abreu left, which is a pretty big deal. Forget that he was primarily a DH before, he was given the green light to be that power 1B type in Chicago after Abreu. This hasn't happened. Vaughn has been an extremely okay corner bat, the answer to the question 'What if Jim Thome went on Ozempic', and he's just sort of...lazed on by. Dude's hitting .242 with 14 homers and 52 RBIs. Even for the White Sox that's boring. Robert has that many homers in 70 games. And yet Vaughn hitting .242 is still probably one of the higher averages on this team, because nobody's hitting. People are gonna do studies as to how Andrew Benintendi completely deteriorated in Chicago. He was not like this even in New York. 

Similarly, Brooks Baldwin, hitting .222 over 26 games, has made it into the top 7 WAR earners of the White Sox. He's done very little. He's been a step up on defense and he's had some power moments, and that alone has brought him over the majority of the team statistically. This is just a dire group, even with Crochet and Robert still here.

And yet I think Burger's still better off in Miami. They're probably gonna compete again sooner than Chicago, and they have enough pieces that could be immediately relevant before the next rebuild. Plus, the Marlins get Sandy Alcantara back next year, and Eury Perez. That is at least something, and it's more than they had this year. The White Sox, meanwhile, get Yoan Moncada and Jesse Scholtens back next year. Have fun with that.

Coming Tonight (?): He nearly won a Cy Young last year, and even if his team's still struggling to stay in the wild card race, he's giving his all even now.

Ern'd Run

 

It says a lot about the Toronto Blue Jays this year that after Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho, the player with the next-highest WAR is now Ernie Clement. Not that Clement isn't deserving of the honor, he's just a .270-hitting defensive whiz. Now that you mention it, Varsho's 2024 season has also been boosted by his impeccable defense.

I think that's how you best sum up this Jays team. Four of the best defenders in the league played for Toronto this year, except none of them could really hit. And so two are left, and...neither are really getting much hitting done, but at the very least the defense is worth it. Like, Varsho might be the best defensive outfielder in baseball. The guy has a 25 fielding WAR figure, that's pretty damned good. Clement is no slouch, he's got a 14, totaling 17 runs better than average. But...most of the hitters are just kinda...circling .210 and not progressing.

I think George Springer is the biggest summation of this, because he at least has decent power numbers, 14 homers and 46 RBIs, but his 0.8 WAR season is nowhere near his Houston peak. The fans essentially had to beg the Jays to take Springer out of the leadoff spot. It's clear he's just not that guy anymore, 10 years into his career. On top of that, the rest of the lineup mainstays are just guys in their 20s going through down years. Davis Schneider, Alejandro Kirk, Spencer Horwitz, Leo Jimenez. Just a lot of skulking around, not getting anything done. Which makes it all the more thrilling when someone who DOES hit, like Will Wagner, comes along and winds up with a .474 average in his first 6 games. Now, this was Davis Schneider last year, and now the novelty has worn off, but it's an exciting burst of energy for a team with none left.

Even the pitching has kinda given up. Bowden Francis has been doing the anchoring since Bassitt, Berrios and Gausman have slowed down, and it's been nice to see him prove he can start consistently. The bullpen's been kind of atrocious too, even with all the veterans they've plugged in. They're kind of running out the clock at this point, which is kinda sad.

The good news is that, since he was allowed to stay in town, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been putting on a clinic, and is hitting .317 with 26 homers and 89 RBIs. It is his best year since his 2021 come to prominence, and it's proof that he can still have great years despite his emphasis on power numbers. It's sad that this happened during such a down year for the Jays, and it's upsetting that this may be near the end of Guerrero's tenure in the city where his father's career left off, but who knows where his career will go next.

I'd hoped the Jays would have more substantial stories this year, but this is what we've got sadly. 5 years in and we're already seeing the limits of the legend of the junior Jays.

Coming Tomorrow- He got a ticket off a sinking ship to compete and play in October. Then that ship started sinking.

Blake of Fire

 

Scott Boras clearly wanted the right deal for Blake Snell. That's why he worked so hard to sell his client, in a way that alienated virtually every team when the numbers weren't matching his zeal. And to be honest, Boras probably thought that getting a long-term deal for a Cy Young winning pitcher still in his prime would be simple, as it always used to be. But I think what wounded Snell was the fact that this is 2024, and it's becoming rarer and rarer for pitchers to have consecutive great seasons without some degree of wear and tear. And so...clearly scouts saw a drop-off in Snell's material as he worked out in the spring, they saw a down year, and they backed off. All of them. The Yankees were the favorite to sign snell all Spring, and they backed off and instead went for Marcus Stroman, who...honestly, was exactly the kind of guy they needed.

So all Blake Snell ended up getting from the Giants, a team that turned out not to be ready to compete, was 1 year, 32 million, and a player option if, for some reason, Snell wanted to trust the system for 2025. All Snell was given was one year, when he clearly wanted four or five. And so I do not blame Snell for his first three months. Not only was he coming off a key year, and expecting to pitch exactly like it, but he was mad at the whole Boras situation. He'd be getting to the majors late, the pressure would be on immediately, it would not be the ideal situation. So Snell getting eaten alive out there in May was bound to happen. It happened to Jordan Montgomery too. Clearly, the scouts' concerns did have some truth, and Snell was faced with a terrible first half. 

A lesser pitcher would let that stop him. Blake Snell is not that.

So Snell's past 8 starts have been nothing short of incredible. A 1.03 ERA, 70 strikeouts, 6 earned runs. A no-hitter. A .117 opposing batting average. Probably one of the best stretches of Snell's career, and that includes the Cy Young seasons. Snell is pitching like he's got nothing to prove. Clearly he's fighting for his own worth, to get a better 2025 contract, but he's pitching like nothing's on the line. The Giants are gonna succeed or fail regardless, and he's only gotten the win in 2 of his starts, which...is telling. But Snell has also gotten through 5 starts without allowing a run. This is what he's capable of right now.

The other night, Snell, against the A's, struck out 10 and allowed just one run. It was a game the bullpen would make closer than it needed to be, but it was a game where for the majority of it, the Giants didn't need to worry. And Snell, at 31, is still capable of those kinds of games, regardless of whatever the hell he was dealing with earlier in the year.

All I hope for someone like Snell is that he straightens everything out with management, and figures out how to get a modest enough deal that still gives him what he's worth without leaving him hung out to dry if he's headed for a down year. He's a smart enough guy, he just needs to learn the right lesson from this year. The obvious outcome is the Yankees spending too much money on him and things not working out from the jump, but Snell needs to figure out the best way forward, without wasting anymore of his best years.

Coming Tonight: With many homegrown youth options hurt or leaving, a replacement super-ute takes the spotlight in Toronto.

100 Miles From Home

 

I think after some time has gone by, we're gonna look back at this year and see that Mason Miller was the biggest trendsetter in the MLB. Miller burst onto the scene as a killer relief piece who routinely hits 100mph, and so many other teams rushed to get their own. And the majority of them have been finding success this year. 

The most notable Miller copycat comes from Miller's own division, the AL West. Ben Joyce made a name for himself for throwing 105 miles per hour at U of Tennessee, which was virtually unheard of. Once the Angels drafted him, he eventually made some appearances last year, but found more of a footing in the Angels' bullpen this year. Once Carlos Estevez was traded he was even more vital, and his 100+ mph stuff became the talk of the town. With only a year or so under his belt as a major league reliever, Joyce already has been given his own MLB nickname: the Volunteer Fireman, coined as such due to the vacancy in the ninth leading to Joyce getting the closing job. His attitude was apparently 'sure, why not?', and since then he's been untouchable in save situations. 

Is there a chance Joyce could throw his arm out? Yeah. He's already had Tommy John surgery [in college!!] but that's never a guarantee that he'll never need it again. Still, his 105-caliber stuff has been well regarded in Anaheim, and he's probably gonna be a crucial piece of future Angels teams. As will his brother Zach, a fellow Tennessee hurler who the Angels drafted a year after they drafted Ben. Look for him to come up the pipe at some point.

But yes, someone like Joyce bursting onto the scene does make it clear that other teams can develop players as lethal as Mason Miller. The Diamondbacks have Justin Martinez, who's got a 1.82 ERA so far this year. The Pirates have Aroldis Chapman, who can still pitch over 100 and stifle opposing batters. Jhoan Duran famously can reach 100 mph in Minnesota, even if he hasn't been as dominant as he was in 2023. And also, there's this Paul Skenes character that can start games with that kind of velocity. The key to this sort of competition is sustainability. It's a lot to pitch 100 mph, but you have to keep it going for a while, rather than flame out quickly. Stephen Strasburg threw stuff nobody could hit for an entire decade, then his arm disallowed him a second one. The risks are there, and the pitchers know it. And hopefully they're knowledgable enough about conditioning and variance, so that they don't walk on eggshells for the rest of their careers. 

The Angels, meanwhile, don't have a ton left to do this season. Trout returning, if that even happens, won't save the team. Rendon's return lasted, like, a week or so. We're now down to letting some Trash Pandas fill out the rotation, for better or worse. It's good that big performers like Joyce or Logan O'Hoppe can provide relevance, because without Ohtani there's less to care about than ever for the Angels.

Coming Tomorrow- He didn't get the contract he wanted because he was pitching like he was overworked last year. He gets to the majors, and pitches like he was overworked last year. He misses a month. Then returns...and stops giving up runs. 

Purely Precautionary

 

That was the term that the Reds used when they put Hunter Greene, who's having the best season of his career and is an under-the-radar Cy Young favorite this year, on the 10-day IL. It was a 'purely precautionary decision', just making sure he doesn't get overtaxed now and blow the playoff race by getting hurt before it gets started. So the idea is to have him skip a start, conserve arm energy, and be back sometime after that.

It's...an interesting tactic, considering that the Reds jumped to 2nd place this week, and now have to stay in the race despite one of their biggest pieces being shut down. And since it happened, the Reds have gotten completely steamrolled in a series with the Royals. If the Cardinals had beaten the Dodgers and moved ahead in 2nd, I'd be more worried, but the Reds are gonna need a lot of inertia to keep from sinking without Greene.

The Reds are four games under .500, yet so much about this team is finally starting to click. Spencer Steer's finally playing like he should have all season, as is T.J. Friedl, who's been hot and healthy this month with 12 RBIs in August already. Ty France is actually an admirable power bat at 1st, and he's a great replacement for CES. So many fringe details of this team, like Nick Martinez as a swingman, Stuart Fairchild as a defensive substitution, the majority of the bullpen, and the stolen base game, are working right now, even with holes in the lineup. 

The central story of this Reds team, postseason or no, will be Elly de la Cruz's quest for a 30/60 season, and it's a cool enough story for a guy who the Reds hoped would finally be an MLB force this year. It just feels disappointing that there doesn't seem to be much else buttressing Elly at the moment. Abbott and Lodolo are getting killed on the mound. Candelario and Benson have gone cold. There's the possibility that the Reds might need to pull something out of their ass to replace Greene in the rotation, and it'll need to be something that at least stops the bleeding, if possible. 

At this rate, I'm worried that by the time Greene comes back there won't be a playoff case to come back to. The Reds need to bounce back from this Royals series if they want a chance at squeezing into a wild card spot, and with the Jays and Pirates up next, they need to act like it.

Coming Tonight: He throws 100 miles an hour and his value just went up in Anaheim.