Farm Aid

 

The Orioles could have called the Jackson Holliday experiment a failure. Calling up a guy absolutely smoking the minors only for the major league pitching to do him in, all while the spotlight's firmly upon him, it's been seen before, but it's been a while since a call-up has underwhelmed like this. And with Holliday's callup feeling like a logical next step, it'd be understandable if the Orioles took a hit following the demotion.

But right as Holliday was struggling, a completely different Orioles rookie was commanding the attention, and keeping the Orioles competitive. And so that took the sting out of it.

That's what separates this Orioles team from one you may have seen in 2021, upon Adley Rutschman's debut. Back then, the whole team was hinging on a top prospect to do well so the winning iteration of the team could be built around them. Now, because this is already a competitive team with so many working homegrown parts, successful prospects are just ways of strengthening the already-strong core. So Colton Cowser coming up and going on a tear was just another great element of this team's development system.

Cowser's numbers have gone down a bit, but his 6 homers and 20 RBIs have still contributed mightily to the power numbers this team is capable of. Also a wise contribution? Kyle Stowers, who's now a major league piece after hitting a ton of homers in Norfolk. The trouble with this is that at the moment, it's been hard for Stowers to land substantial playing time now that Austin Hays is back, and now he's kinda warring with Stowers for time. And yes, while this isn't the situation for the next 10 years like Atlanta, considering that Anthony Santander's a free agent after the season, it's making this a rocky development period for both of them.

Then you think about Heston Kjerstad, who's lower on the totem pole than either of those two and really has no place to break into the major league outfield picture. So far for Norfolk, Kjerstad's played beautifully, hitting .337 with 33 RBIs and 11 homers. Not only has Kjerstad not succeeded in the majors in general, but he's been sent back to Norfolk, like Holliday, because of the lack of immediate success. There's so many young players on this team that it's impossible to get all of them in the lineup at once, and I'm guessing it's gonna lead some of them to be traded fairly soon. Kjerstad for sure, but possibly even someone like Cowser or Stowers if they don't heat up long-term. 

The rotation doesn't really have that much of a youth overflow issue, as Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells happened to go down around the time that both Kyle Bradish and John Means came off the IL. Bradish has been strong so far, though he's yet to register a decision in 3 games. Means is looking very sturdy in 2 games back, and has 1 win under his belt. Burnes, Irvin and Kremer are still working pretty consistently as well. Last year there was somebody like D.L. Hall scratching to get in, but he's over in Milwaukee...hurt again, I think [I mean, his name IS 'D.L.'...]

The Orioles have enough working now that they'll be great for a while, it seems. I just hope that this competitive environment for the young players doesn't stunt the growth of any of their finest prospects.

Coming Tomorrow- I dunno what I'm happier about; the team doing well, or this guy finally becoming a multi-tool guy.

McMahon of the House

 

When Ryan McMahon began the 2018 season as the Rockies' starting 1st baseman, we were all figuring it would be the next step in the team's dominance. Famously, the Rockies started Trevor Story at short out of camp in 2016, he got off to an incredible start and became a mainstay for the team. By 2018, the Rockies had Arenado, Blackmon, Story, LeMahieu and that young, trusty rotation, and were gearing up for a strong year that would eventually bring former World Series hero Matt Holliday to join them for a playoff run. McMahon was considered one of the last pieces the team needed to prove their worth.

It didn't happen. McMahon had a dismal start, only hitting .232 in 91 games that season, and mostly being relegated to a bit player. The Rockies' 2018 playoff run flamed out somewhat quickly. And after a while, nearly everybody left.

And as the Rockies attempt to jumpstart a new young team, Ryan McMahon is still there, as one of the last bastions of what once was. And thankfully he's still awesome. So far he's the standout of the lineup, hitting .308 with 48 hits, 22 RBIs and 6 homers. He's a varied enough player to be known for his defensive play as well as being a consistent plate producer for this team, and since 2021 he's been one of their most crucial players. The Rockies thankfully have McMahon signed until 2027, and though many symbols of the early 2020s teams, such as Charlie Blackmon, Elias Diaz and Daniel Bard, might be done in Denver after this season, McMahon's gonna stick around and continue to be the foundation of the team.

To this team's credit, there has been some progress other than McMahon's start. Brendan Rodgers has taken longer to come back than the team has liked, but he's finally getting his average back up. Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar are looking like they have staying power, and Tovar especially is doing a lot of things right at the moment. Austin Gomber, Cal Quantrill and surprisingly Ty Blach have been consistent starting options. Gomber especially is having a great year, although I think about Daniel Bard in 2022 and sometimes the other shoe needs to drop. The Diaz/Stallings battery is still working really well and making the Marlins catching battery look even worse [considering that Stallings left there at the right time]. And as I write this, the Rockies have won 6 straight, including a sweep of the defending champion Texas Rangers, and a shutout rout of the San Diego Padres just yesterday.

So even for a last place team, there's a lot about the Rockies that can work, and that can provide wins. I don't expect them to suddenly become competitive, but there have been worse Rockies teams, and they're at least improving from last year, which is all you need to do.

Coming Tomorrow- The latest rookie from a team whose farm system is really having a moment.

That Joke Isn't Funny Anymore

 

"It was the stickiest stuff I've ever felt on a glove," remarked umpire Erich Bacchus, upon ejecting Houston Astros starter Ronel Blanco from the game against the A's. To this point there hadn't been many substance ejections, and by and large people have been following the rule to stop using tack to get a firmer hold on the ball. But, Blanco was not only using tack, he was OVERusing tack, and the umps had to quickly put a stop to it.

What makes this infuriating for Astros fans is that, to this point, Ronel Blanco was their best pitcher. Through 8 starts, Blanco, a-30-year-old sophomore, was 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA and 45 strikeouts under his belt, all team highs. Not only that, but in his first start of the season he no-hit the Toronto Blue Jays, and used that to get off to a truly vicious start to the season, with teams only beginning to prepare for him in the last week or so [the Yankees seemed prepared]. And now Blanco, clearly one of the silver linings of a dire Astros start, has been caught cheating and will probably have to face some consequences.

Imagine that, an Astros player facing consequences for cheating? Isn't that a fun concept? Alright, so after he gets back in like a week, the Astros will really have to think about what they're gonna do going forward. Will they minimize Blanco's role in the team, or...do they want to win?

That's really the key to this stage of the Astros' history. We've reached the point where cheating doesn't make much of a difference anymore. It used to be that the whole lineup waiting for trashcan cues or one guy using an illegal bat or leaning into a HBP used to be the difference between ALCSs and World Series'. Now it can't get them more than 2 points in a game against the A's. And you can see the necessity- the Astros have the best lineup in the game, with no cheating to be found there really, and the pitching is 100% letting them down. So of course a pitcher's gonna try to cheat. They've gotta do SOMETHING, right? 

Like with the 2019 cheating, this has to piss off Justin Verlander, because he's still incredible without the use of any alternative methods for success. Dude's 41, he's 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA, 23 Ks. Clearly not 2011 caliber but he's still reliable, can go late and carries his share of the load. And now this Blanco thing's happened and there's a lot more pressure on him, cause Valdez and Javier are fine but not at peak levels and the kids are tanking. This is not an ideal rotation scenario, and maybe Blanco would have helped the team more had he just...not gotten too cocky.

And yet the Astros ended up winning that game against the A's anyway, despite Blanco being taken out. They had a walk-off by Victor Caratini, which is happening a lot lately, and ended up with their third straight win. And now the Astros are in 4th place, and tonight they have to face A's pitcher...Aaron Brooks. So even if the Astros don't cheat, they might still be alright for a bit. Maybe not 'competing this year' alright, but...they've survived worse. 

Coming Tomorrow- I never would expected this guy to be the sole factor holding the Rockies together.

Partly Sonny

 

I was thinking about this the other day, because Frankie Montas has been proving himself in Cincinnati this year, after just...failing to show up in New York. And it's just clear how unfit some people are for New York in general. My dad calls it 'Ed Whitson disease', you have a great career, you try to make it work in New York and it really doesn't happen, and then you go back and the magic reappears. Montas is looking like his old self this year, and the Reds are reaping the benefits. 

And it's funny, because Montas has the exact same career trajectory that Sonny Gray had, though Montas was in a few farm systems before landing in Oakland. Come to prominence for the A's, midyear trade to New York for some prospects that are thought foolish but mostly aren't, cannot get a single thing done for the Yankees. Signs a low-hazard deal with the Reds, now he's back. Sonny Gray is the better pitcher, and has the better career, but that is the path. 

It's very funny looking at Sonny Gray's numbers and seeing just how consistent he's been. Been around for 12 years, just notched 100 wins, could pass 2000 strikeouts if he keeps it up for the next few years. Since he joined the Reds he's only had 1 season with an ERA higher than 4, and he's coming off his single strongest season in years. He's not a Hall of Famer, but it's very cool seeing him continue to produce consistently into his 30s. He was once the hip young thing of the leagues, now he's 34 and still extremely strong on the mound.

And even if the Cardinals going with a veteran rotation this year is a wee bit misguided, getting Gray back off the IL has helped them a bit, as he's been stellar since his activation. In 6 games he's 4-2 with a 2.29 ERA and 44 strikeouts. This is, though, undeniably the best performance in the rotation. Kyle Gibson's also decent, but he's very much an innings eater with added perks here and there. Lynn's okay, Mikolas is struggling, they're letting Matthew Liberatore start and unsurprisingly he's not doing well so far. Maybe give Andre Pallante another shot? Who knows. They just need a steady answer, and I hate that this rotation already seems like it's falling off. 

The Cards themselves still aren't great. Goldschmidt and Arenado are still looking past their prime. Gorman, Donovan and Nootbaar still aren't getting anything done. Contreras was doing awesome but now he's out for a bit. It's just a very meh affair with the occasional defensive move and the occasional strong bullpen day. They've caught up to the Reds in the standings, and the Reds are a better team with worse luck at the moment. I think the Reds will come out of it, but the Cardinals, unless a lot happens at once, might be a last place team yet again. 

Coming Tonight: It took a while for teams to figure out how to hit him, but even now he's got some tricky stuff left. 

The Pham-tom Menace

 

God what a mad team this White Sox club is. The four best players on the team are pitchers,  three of which had little to no MLB experience during the 2023 season. There's only three people in the day-to-day lineup who actually came up in this organization, the same organization that's trying to jumpstart itself. There's multiple people who were once extremely good at baseball just struggling to hit even .215. And one of the sparks of the lineup has been a guy nobody wanted during the offseason that signed late just so he could play.

Tommy Pham might be one of the strangest MLB figures of the last several years. By all accounts, his Rays numbers seemed to indicate a sensible, normal career, and he instead picked the supervillain route. He came to San Diego to perform to his standard, and instead struggled defensively AND offensively in two seasons there. Then split the next two seasons between two teams, performing well at the plate in the first half and feeling like a consolation prize in the second. He decided to get on the bad side of Joc Pederson, one of the most likable players in the game right now, and someone who ironically took over for Pham after he left Arizona. Even when he does well, nobody knows what to think of Tommy Pham. Like he has this sort of polarizing aura about him, not even in a laughable way like Jazz Chisholm. 

And so now, Pham is one of the only people the White Sox fans can properly trust right now. So far, in 15 games, Pham is hitting .293 with 8 RBIs and 2 homers. It's weird that a 36-year-old is hitting better than most of the young kids, and has the best average on the team, but...that's the White Sox for ya. You'll hear things about how Eloy Jimenez is having a good day or Andrew Vaughn is doing something, and then you look at their averages and it's still not great. Like, Benintendi was having a great day recently and you look at what's changed, and it's just 'well, now he's batting .190 as opposed to batting .160'. Pham actually hitting competently over a long period time is a change of pace for this team.

And yet. Like usual, there's the chance that Pham will be dealt midyear, because that's what tends to happen with him. He burns places out quickly, and they deal him. And so you're not sure if he's actually gonna ride out the 2024 White Sox experience to the end or if he's actually gonna get to play for a competitor again. And even still, will he contribute that much? He only did so much for the D-Backs last year, even if he was an excellent postseason performer. Maybe that'll boost his appeal?

The White Sox are a slight bit better than they were, but that's really as much as they're gonna get. And so they need to figure out victories that will be more important than just 'well Tommy Pham's not hitting .200 like the rest of the team'.

Coming Tomorrow- Well, we can cross off another market on the list of cities that aren't New York that this guy can pitch well in. 

Stormy Weathers

 

Ryan Weathers must feel like he booked a last minute ticket for the Titanic and was in the bathroom at the exact time they started filling up the lifeboats.

Luis Arraez got traded to the Padres, and is now hitting .300 with them and helping them compete, and Weathers is still stuck in Miami getting the snot kicked out of him every 5 days on a team with no run support. And it's only gonna get worse as the season goes on.

Writing about the Marlins used to be fun. It was fun just last year. And now it's just depressing. This team could have been great, they could have built something with all the pieces that made 2023 work, and now they're just struggling. The team's most valuable player right now is Max Meyer, who made three starts then went back to Jacksonville. Nobody has a 1 WAR right now but 9 people have -0.5 and below WARs, including a guy they paid actual money for during the offseason. In fact, the Marlins are paying 44,330,000 to people who have a 0 WAR or lower. Josh Bell, Tim Anderson, Jake Burger, Christian Bethancourt, Avisail Garcia, all weighing this team down.

How does that reflect on the young players who are actually trying? Ryan Weathers has finally been given the opportunity to start every day, and he's done relatively well, with a 4.54 ERA and 34 Ks. But with no run support and a lot of superior teams, he's racked up a lot of earned runs and he's not winning many games. Jesus Luzardo's similar, the raw materials are there but without the team he's not very impressive. Trevor Rogers is 0-6. Braxton Garrett got rocked in his first start. A rotation that felt so realized even after Alcantara got hurt last year now looks lost and completely unsteady. And this is how it is with a lot of injured players reinstated. 

There are some positive production aspects. Bryan de la Cruz and Jazz Chisholm ARE doing well as power pieces. Otto Lopez and Dane Myers have been very nice off the bench. Tristan Gray is hopefully gonna come into his own, despite being a 28-year-old rookie. There's still no good hitting catchers on this team, no starter hitting over .270, and no real perennial on-base guy now that Luis Arraez is gone. And, again, this is how bad the team looks in May.

I...can only hope for some improvement, something to click, but I'm not sure if it's happening this year. And it's sad, cause they actually looked good last year. Apparently they only do this when nobody's expecting them to.

Coming Tonight: A late signer that's looking like an incredible asset playing for a bad team.

Skip Trace

 

Sometimes, when you have all the talent you need to win and just aren't getting it done, there's no palpable one thing that's wrong, and improvement requires retooling multiple facets over a long period of time. Other times, the thing that is wrong is the person managing the team, and once that is removed the problems go away. I'm not an expert on the inside aspects of baseball, but my guess is that the 2024 Blue Jays fall into the latter category.

The best you can say about John Schneider is that he elevated the Blue Jays from a divisional also-ran to a playoff team. Unfortunately, these Schneider Jays teams have never gotten further than the Wild Card round, even with Bichette, Guerrero, Gausman, Romano and Springer having prime seasons. The problems have only multiplied in 2024, with Bo Bichette having his worst season to date, Daulton Varsho leading the usually power-heavy team in homers with 6, and numerous tough losses that weren't especially close. You're seeing a more irate version of Schneider, one that's been thrown out a lot recently, and hasn't been as fun to be around. 

There are a bunch of managers that people are already going 'how much better would the bench coach be?' at this point. The suspects you'd expect, y'know, Grifol, Marmol, Espada. Which is ironic considering that Espada used to be a coach anyhow. And with Schneider I think it'd be the most cathartic if the firing did happen, because the Jays fans aren't especially loving his work. A colleague of mine, a Jays fan, has never especially been a fan of his, and has noted how 'exposed' he's felt recently. And yeah, while a lot of this team working isn't exactly his fault, it is his fault that it hasn't gotten better. 

Daulton Varsho is still one of the best players on this team, and it's concerning because he's a rare non-homegrown young hitter. Varsho's not only excellent in the outfield, he leads the team in RBIs with 17, and homers with 6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. only has 4 home runs right now, and that should be extremely concerning, even if he's began to heat up in the last week or so. Bichette, Springer, Biggio and Kirk are all toiling around .200. There's some production from newcomers like IKF, Davis Schneider and Justin Turner, but not a ton. The pitching is solid enough but the ERAs are higher than they should be. Is it the strength of the division? Maybe a little. But it'd be interesting to see how well this team could do without some of these circumstances. 

Like, y'know how Oli Marmol got ejected like seconds into the Cardinals game yesterday, then the second he was ejected the Cards were able to come back and win? The Blue Jays need an 'aha' moment like that, or else this season's gonna be even more disappointing than the last few.

Coming Tomorrow- He was traded to Miami for a player that didn't even make October with his old team. Now he's just seen a teammate be traded back to his old team as they're competing. I just feel bad for this guy.

Never Heard of a Nine-Man Infield Before

 

It only occurred to me recently how much of the Padres' 2024 revolves around the existence of copious amounts of infielders. Like, there's an SNL sketch about a People's Court type show, but with like 12 judges. And you're led to assume that it's a working model but it didn't need to be that excessive.

The San Diego Padres currently have all of the following infielders active: Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machado, Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts, Tyler Wade and Donovan Solano. Which is seven. But it gets funnier. Because look at the outfield. ALL THREE OUTFIELDERS CAME UP AS MIDDLE INFIELDERS. Jurickson Profar came up as a 2nd baseman for the Rangers. Fernando Tatis obviously did his time at SS before moving to the outfielder. And Jackson Merrill, the new outfield rookie success this year...came up as a shortstop! That's TEN INFIELDERS. It's really just the catchers, Campusano and Higgy, that have no infield experience. 

But that is honestly the Padres' strategy. Infield first. It's why they signed Ha-Seong Kim when they already knew they had Tatis there. It's why they traded for Luis Arraez even if they already had a working outfield. It's why they brought up Donnie Barrels even if he'd be used primarily as a backup. Considering how lopsided the Padres' infields used to be, with people like Everth Cabrera, Jedd Gyorko and Yonder Alonso doing what they could in singular facets, it's nice that they can overproduce their infield and allow for so many great players coming from there. And yes, so far Luis Arraez is hitting .357 as a Padre and doing his usual thing of contact magic, so they seemed to be onto something there.

Arraez also points out a nice trend of players just absolutely clicking in San Diego of all places. Jurickson Profar is a nice version of this, as we saw how well things went in a place that was a bad fit for him last year. Then the second he gets back to San Diego he returns to form, hitting .295 in the last 14 games of the season. Keeping him around was a good idea, as he's returned to his 2022 levels of dominance, hitting .321 with 27 RBIs, 45 hits and 6 homers. After years of struggling to find a niche, Profar has really come into his own as a versatile, fun piece for teams like the Padres. 

There's been a nice group effort from a lot of this Padres team, with guys like Michael King, Robert Suarez, Luis Campusano and, yes, Donovan Solano, contributing a great deal, and adding depth to a team that's already getting stuff out of some stars [Tatis, Cronenworth, Cease]. It's not a perfect team, and I think we'd all prefer if Bogaerts and Machado were doing better, but this team has soared above expectations so far and might still factor into the NL West race to come.

And hey, at the very least there's no chance of the Padres having the worst infield in the division. They've got like 20 people there.

Coming Tonight: The trade that sent him to Toronto is honestly still feeling pretty even, which is kinda odd considering. 

Always Be Closing: You Try Hitting Him

 

And now, a brief moment to talk about me, and what I do. I try not to do this, it's honestly truly immaterial, but I've been given no choice in the matter. 

I coach for a Challenger Little League in the area. Kids and young adults with disabilities come by every sunday, and we put them through the whole clinic, and a lot of them can really mash. One guy damn near put a dent in the scoreboard a couple weeks back. Thankfully I'm on his good side. But anyway I've been training myself to pitch, and with these guys you just have to give them something they can hit. Some of them want velocity, and I do have a heater for that, but usually I'm just throwing softies and hoping they're not too far outside. I'm still relatively young, y'know, 28, and I don't have a ton of soreness after, or even the next day. I mean maybe a little, but I know people that'll throw for an hour on sunday and be terribly achey for two days after. I'm not there yet but I'm teetering on the brink.

So...if after throwing some fairly relaxed speeds for an hour or so, I feel it just a little bit...I cannot imagine the conditioning needed to be able to not only throw 100 miles an hour, but keep throwing 100 miles an hour, for roughly 30 or so pitches every few days. I cannot imagine what I'd need to do in order to do that AND STAY HEALTHY. 

So looking at somebody like Mason Miller, I go '...god bless, man'. Dude gets up there, throws 100 miles an hour, nobody hits him, leaves. And keeps at it. I hope he can keep doing that as long as possible, because man is he a difference maker in Oakland.

Mason Miller flirted with starting last year, but after an injury the A's thought it best to keep him as a relief option. I initially disagreed with this, I thought he was one of the best starters the A's had last year. But y'know, the A's were thinking arm conservation, and all things considered that's the better idea here. And then a funny thing happened- top of the season he's #1 in the depth chart for the bullpen, they don't exactly get a closing option, Trevor May's retired...hey, kid with the 100 mile an hour fastball, y'wanna close? 

And so that's how we got here. The A's have a lot of save situations, being a fairly middle of the road team with flawed starting pitching, and so in those situations they put Miller in, and then...nobody can hit him. Which is a helpful trait if you're a closing pitcher. That used to be Josh Hader for a while. Miller's crazy because whenever he pitches, like all 5 of the top pitch velocities will belong to him, and then Codify will just go 'well....Mason Miller pitched today'. With Skenes he's probably gonna have some competition, but just as he is now he's just filthy out there. Not many teams have really gotten to him, and he's even shut down the Yankees. 

So far, in 13 games, Miller has a 1.10 ERA, 8 saves and 33 strikeouts. That K number rivals the starters, with only Paul Blackburn having a larger figure. Right now, Miller has a NEGATIVE fielding-independent pitching figure, which is something I didn't even know was possible. And he's clearly been one of the best assets on the A's this year. Which is wild, because, as discussed, the A's aren't even that terrible this year. Blackburn, Rooker, Bleday, Langeliers and somehow Abraham Toro are all having great seasons. New call-ups like Joey Estes and Tyler Soderstrom have been great so far. There's...HOPE. And they're only a few games under .500, which was unthinkable last year.

I just really hope Mason Miller takes care of his arm and doesn't wind up injured too soon. Cause you know that's a large possibility these days, and you hope that whatever he's doing isn't gonna burn out his arm too quickly. 

Coming Tomorrow- Who'd have thought that San Diego would consistently bring out the best numbers in this guy?

Paul Bearers

 

Not sure if any of you heard, but Paul Skenes made his debut yesterday. It, uh...certainly went.

Y'want the big #1 draft pick's line for his debut? 4 innings, 6 hits, 3 earned runs, 2 walks...7 strikeouts. He begins his career with a 6.75 ERA, but considering his first start was against a very good Cubs team, and prior to this he was playing against triple-A teams with only a small portion of the talent of big league rosters, I think it's understandable. A lesser pitcher would not come off as dominant, or impressive, given that line. Paul Skenes is not a lesser pitcher. Of the three #1 overall picks who have debuted this year, even with this small sample size, Skenes is still the strongest of the three, despite being the most recent draft pick of the three. Plus, the Pirates ended up winning the game, despite a very tense back-and-forth between offenses.

So what I'm saying is...Paul Skenes may have been the difference between a Pirates win and a Pirates loss. And if that's how things start, there's no indication that it's how they'll end.

The Pirates, to this point, have not been great. Nothing's really changed, but the schedule's evened out and they don't look like much compared to teams like the Red Sox, Giants and A's. Yet they can still take a few from division rivals like the Brewers. So they're able to provide upsets, but not as often as someone like the A's. The biggest criticism is there's just not a lot to this lineup. Reynolds and Hayes are great, but you're relying on bit players like Connor Joe and Michael Taylor at the moment, while homegrown guys like Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo are...getting there but not there yet. There's still way too many replacement guys in this lineup for them to be taken seriously, even if they formerly reigned supreme, like Rowdy Tellez, Yasmani Grandal and, yes, Andrew McCutchen, who's very human despite a strong game yesterday. The expectation was for Henry Davis to be great this year in Endy Rodriguez's absence. He is not.

The pitching is the sole thing keeping this team out of last. Skenes and Jones are a very powerful rookie duo now, but even aside from that, the veteran piecemeal strategy actually works here. Martin Perez is having another solid season in his mid 30s, with a 3.60 ERA and 36 Ks. Quinn Priester has actually become a decent low-rotation option, and could definitely could build on his early starts to make something happen. Same with Bailey Falter, who has seen some magic happen in certain starts. Mitch Keller's elevated ERA is concerning, but he's still got the right idea in terms of his mechanics. The bullpen's a little more bloated than it should be but Colin Holderman's still among the best in the biz, and David Bednar's been decent despite some slight injury setbacks. 

This is not a perfect team, and it's not a team that looks especially intimidating as it is right now. But this is the Pirates as Paul Skenes arrives. The hope is that he helps make this team something again, and as they are now they're extremely okay. Maybe soon enough they won't be.

Coming Tonight: So get this. He's a relief pitcher. But NO ONE CAN HIT HIM. They don't even get the chance!

Witt Craft

 

I think this has been a decent enough timetable for the Royals. Year one, Bobby Witt struggles, year two he's a standout with MVP votes, year three he's a superstar. That's about right. Some guys take even longer, if it all. 

The Royals knew Bobby Witt would get to superstar levels. The fans knew it, the team knew it, Bobby knew it. Sometimes there are just can't-miss prospects that fame is inevitable for. Some people are just made to play baseball. Bobby Witt seems like that kind of person, and his minor league numbers were foreshadowing a great career. The Royals are lucky they still have Salvador Perez, and still have him playing well, because if not they'd be even more impatient for Witt to arrive so they can build a team around him. 

But 2024 has been the year where both Witt and the plan to build the Royals around him to compete have exceeded expectations. Witt has been one of the single best performers in the AL so far, with a league-leading 2.8 WAR, a .310 average with a league-leading 36 runs, plus 20 RBIs, 13 steals and 5 home runs. Witt is exceeding at nearly every facet of the game, with improved defensive numbers, improved contact numbers, and insane reliability. Witt, like no other AL hitters with the exception of Juan Soto, has been a difference maker for the Royals regularly, and he and Perez have led the team in OPS. This is what they've wanted since drafting him.

The rest of the team has thankfully been following, not leaving him out to dry like a lesser AL team. A healthy Vinnie Pasquantino has contributed positively to the team's power numbers, and Maikel Garcia has turned into a pretty consistent performer at the plate. The defense is also pretty excellent this year, with Freddy Fermin, Kyle Isbel, Garrett Hampson and ESPECIALLY Adam Frazier buttressing the Royals' complexity and versatility. Frazier's also been getting hot, he had a recent hero moment, and after his rocky few years he deserves some. And then the pitching's been excellent, with Lugo, Singer, Ragans and Marsh also delivering great starts. I was not expecting Seth Lugo to be as incredible as he's been with this team, and I'm honestly here for it. 

The only thing that could be tricky for this Royals team, even if Witt keeps at it, will be navigating other AL Central competitors. I think they're better than the Tigers at the moment, and the Twins even, but you never know how the momentum could shift. I think that with this version of the team, and this kind of production from Witt, the Royals have a shot. We'll have to see though. 

Coming Tomorrow- A pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates. No...not that one. 

Your Current MLB Saves Leader

 

Right now, all of the following closers are employed by MLB teams, and are healthy: Josh Hader, Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, Emmanuel Clase, Edwin Diaz, Camilo Doval. None of them have as many saves as Kyle Finnegan. How crazy is that?

I love the fact that Finnegan wasn't even a Nationals organizational product. He came up with the A's, spent years with them, toiled in the minors forever, got cut, then signed with the Nats on a flyer prior to 2020. Then, after making the Nats out of camp that year, Finnegan never plays a day in the minors again. That is incredible. And since his call-up in 2020, Finnegan has been extremely consistent as a bullpen guy for the Nats. Through 5 seasons he's been a bullpen innings leader each year, only not reaching 66 innings during the 2020 season. He's never had an ERA higher than 4, he's never missed his turn, and he's provided the Nats some real consistency in an era where nothing has been consistent for them.

Y'wanna know how few consistencies the Nationals have had this decade so far? Here's some other players who've been around as long as Finnegan; Victor Robles, who hasn't had a decent season since before the pandemic; Luis Garcia, another example of a late bloomer like I spoke of yesterday; Patrick Corbin, see Robles; and Tanner Rainey, who does not have the health luck that Finnegan's had. The only thing that's been consistent since 2020 has been Carter Kieboom's inability to live up to expectations EVERY SINGLE YEAR. He's played 133 games total, has a career .199 average, and is 26 this year. Way to use a first round pick.

But Finnegan has been that consistent, and may be one of the most reliably strong Nationals players of this era. And now you're seeing the Nats reward Finnegan for his consistency, as, since he's the highest peg in the depth chart, now he gets to close games consistently. Last year he had 28 saves, instilling the club with trust that he could do this more often. This year he got the ninth out of camp, and he's currently tied for most saves in the bigs with Robert Suarez. Finnegan's 12 saves also come with a 1.65 ERA and one of the highest WARs on the team. And what's cool is that Finnegan isn't doing this by throwing too much smoke or out-velocity-ing the batters, he's just crafty and deliberate and has been doing all the right things. No wonder he's stayed healthy, he's not trying to blow his arm out like some other closers.

I hope Finnegan keeps throwing this well, and keeps providing his team ninth-inning stability. There is a chance he gets traded in July, but I really don't want that to happen, considering everything the Nationals have done for him, and vice versa.

Coming Tonight: Everybody knew he'd ascend to superstardom. Just two years later, it's finally happened.

On The Late Bloomer

 

The model for MLB development has changed. You're seeing less people join MLB rosters at 20 or 21, and more people reach their potential around 25 or 26 and hope to get 10 or 12 years in the bigs. It's not as easy to have 22-year careers like Brooks Robinson did, because there's more injuries, more minor league development options, and more complexity. 

The downside of this is that even with a prolonged minor league development period, some prospects just need a while to get to their MLB potential. It happened with Tim Beckham back in the day, he didn't start making waves til around his 30s. It's been happening a lot, actually, with prospects brought up too early, people called up at 19 or 20 or 21. Now, because they would normally be spending those years building up in the minors, many young players fill that time with dead air. It happened with Nico Hoerner after his early call-up. It happened with Jackson Holliday in his first O's stint. It's...still happening with Jo Adell.

The one case that seemed to take forever was Jarren Duran, a prized Red Sox outfield prospect. In 33 games after a 2021 midyear call-up, he struggled, hitting .215 with almost twice as many strikeouts than hits. Then he regrouped, had an impressive 2022 in camp, got a starting position to start the season, and...struggled once again. In 58 games he had a .221 average with, despite a slight uptick, numbers that still weren't getting anyone excited. 

But 2023, his AGE 26 SEASON, was his complete breakout. Last year, in 102 games he hit .295 with 40 RBIs and 8 homers. This year he's even better, with 41 hits in 37 games, and a league-leading SIX triples. Duran is one of the highlights of the Sox lineup, he's got a 2.1 WAR, and with Triston Casas, Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida all hurt, Duran has been the most consistent great player on this team. Finally, Duran seems to be a central figure in this Sox team, and he's even outearned Rafael Devers, who was previously considered the anchor.

What worries me is that he's 27 now and has just reached his peak. I have no idea how many more seasons he will be this good for, but his peak shouldn't start at 26. Look at Rafael Devers, HIS peak started at age 22. If he's lucky, Duran maybe has 3 more years of this sweet spot of peak numbers, and considering how careers used to be shaped in this league, that's not a lot. I could be wrong, and he could be great into his late 30s, but considering the average trajectory, that's asking for a lot without injuries. 

And that's really where we're headed. Maybe Whit Merrifield was a harbinger of more players hitting their peaks in their early 30s, but this also means the average career is shortening, and this isn't even factoring in pitchers. I don't know enough to know how to really solve this problem, but it's definitely something that should concern clubs going forward. Jarren Duran may have a great career, but great careers have peaked by his age. 

Coming Tomorrow- I never thought this guy would become a perennial closer type, especially for this team. 

Five .300-Hitting Stars Can't Be Wrong

 

The difference, folks, between crumbling under an injury-laden rotation and rising above it is having your biggest stars all hitting .300. 

Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Andy Pages are all hitting over .300 right now. Ohtani and Betts have OPSs over 1. Smith, Ohtani and Betts are all hitting over .330. Betts and Smith have 20 strikeouts or less. This...tends to help.

I think Will Smith being a .335 hitter right now is the best development of all of this. Y'know, Betts, Freeman and Ohtani hitting .300, people could have called that. And Smith has had some great seasons as of late, some fine stuff, but...this is the first time he's really been giving OMG numbers. So far he's got 26 RBIs, as many as Max Muncy has. Right now no catcher's hitting as well as he is, and...can I just pitch maybe giving him the starting catching job on the NL All-Star team? Sean Murphy's hurt, JT and William Contreras can be backups. Smith deserves it, just with the way he's played so far. I mean, Realmuto's great and all but he's not hitting .300 right now.

The Dodgers are just outhitting the competition, and that is closing the gap. Getting Teoscar Hernandez was a very good move, as he's been an effective power bat for them, with 10 homers and 29 RBIs already. Muncy's having another excellent season, he's got 9 homers and 26 RBIs. Pages has been incredible so far, with 4 homers and 13 RBIs in 20 games. And of course Ohtani and Betts are having incredible seasons at the plate so far, with both contact and power moments to tide fans over with. There's a few people who aren't hitting, but the ones who are hitting are so good that it's not much of an issue.

Plus, and crucially, the pitching staff has actually held together pretty nicely, even without key guys like Kershaw, May, Gonsolin and Miller. The foursome of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton and Gavin Stone has kept a pretty tight ship. Yamamoto and Glasnow are the standouts, but Paxton's 4-0 with a 3.06 ERA. He's not the strikeout artist he once was, perhaps by doctor's orders, but he's still dominant and can keep teams down. And now Walker Buehler's back, and while the first start could have gone better, he's going to get there eventually at this rate. If the Dodgers can keep this unit strong until people start getting activated, they'll be alright.

Look, this team, that's had some unlucky things happen, has got to be lucky that they're the Dodgers. They have the depth, the development, the strength, the consistency. Even a more scattered Dodgers team can still beat the crap out of you. And that's what they intend to keep doing.

Coming Tonight: A Red Sox homegrown guy who took forever to take to the majors, and now might be one of their most crucial pieces. 

The Inevitable in Anaheim

 

9 days into May, the Angels are without Mike Trout, without Anthony Rendon, without Miguel Sano, and only 2 games ahead of the Astros. Business as usual.

It's depressing how predictable it is as well. The second Trout got off to a best-in-the-AL home run hitting streak, I knew it was only a matter of time. And the thing is, both Trout AND Rendon are frustrated that they're missing time this year, because it seems to be like clockwork. Contrary to popular belief, neither of these guys WANT to miss time, they're just both very unlucky. Especially Trout, who's seeing the last decade of his career turn into Ken Griffey Jr.'s 2000s, despite any attempt to stop it. 

And it's painfully evident that without Trout and Rendon, and Ohtani for that matter, there really isn't much to this Angels team. Who the hell is the central figure in this lineup now? Taylor Ward still? He's hitting well enough, .273 with 7 homers and 24 RBIs, but I don't know if he's versatile enough to lead the team, especially considering how hot-and-cold he can run over the course of a season. Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel have improved since cold starts, but neither is hitting over .250 at the moment. People like Wyatt Langford and Paul Skenes are proponents for calling players up within a year of drafting them, and Neto and Schanuel are proponents of...gradual development, I suppose. Nico Hoerner was like this. It's not immediate for some people. 

And then you have role-players on this team who you completely forgot were still active like Kevin Pillar, Hunter Strickland, Willie Calhoun and Ehire Adrianza, and they're honestly not doing too bad. I think Calhoun might be a career bench surprise, judging by his wild Yankees numbers midyear last year. Pillar just arrived a week ago and is already one of the standout performers, with 2 homers and 6 RBIs in 5 games. And when trusted young players like Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell aren't doing much for you, it helps that surprising replacement level guys can overperform. 

The starting pitching isn't terrible, at the same time. Tyler Anderson's finally back to his comfort zone, he's got a 2.74 ERA  and 32 Ks in 7 starts. The wins aren't what he wants but...he's on the 2024 Angels, so yeah. Detmers and Sandoval are certainly striking people out, but the inflated ERAs are slightly worrying. At the very least, all of these guys, including Jose Soriano and Griffin Canning, can eat innings and get you through 5 or so, so it's not like other clubs where you're desperately searching for starting options. These ones seem to work, it's just...hard to find run support some days.

It sucks to see yet another Angels team crumble without Mike Trout, but this is the name of the game in this era of the team, sadly. I hope it gets better, and hope they can stay ahead of Houston, but this may be more than Ron Washington can fix at this rate.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the most underrated catchers in the game makes a case for legitimacy. 

On Hype, Heat, and Hunter Greene

 

This week, it was announced that one of the top prospects in baseball, a flamethrower that no one can hit, will be activated in time for a start on Saturday. Imagine if you were just described that way two years ago, you're in the same division, and you've gotta go against him at some point.

Hunter Greene is a fascinating story, even this early in his career. As a prospect he made waves because of how hard he threw and how many people he could strike out. Then it turned out that it wasn't sustainable and he needed surgery. To this day he's yet to throw a full season's 33 games, and has only gone as far as 24...despite, y'know, never finishing with lower than 150 strikeouts in a full season. Greene reminds me of early Stephen Strasburg, in that the mechanics are there, and he can really mess with you with those speeds, even if the ERA is higher than it needs to be. Like, his current 3.12 ERA is his career lowest at the moment. He usually goes higher than 4. He's also never finished a season with a winning record.

So that's honestly the issue with Hunter Greene. He has extraordinary abilities and high velocity material, but he's yet to really spin together an excellent full season. This may have to do with not having a good team til about now, but if you're a good enough pitcher that doesn't have to be an excuse.

Right now Greene's one of the standouts for the Reds, he's got a 3.12 ERA, 47 Ks and a 1.5 WAR. What helps is that the weight isn't entirely on him, and despite a few rotation injuries there's still people like Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft, Nick Lodolo and Frankie Montas who can be trusted to leg out full starts without bleeding too much. Montas just got activated and he's looking good again, which helps. The Reds have been hoping for Greene to be the central figure of a powerful rotation for a long time, and that seems to be what's in the mix at the moment.

Granted, the team's in 4th place at the moment due to the flickering life in the Pirates, which is only about to be further ignited by the weekend arrival of Paul Skenes. And yes, Hunter Greene must be looking at Skenes like he's looking at a past version of himself. Skenes is terrific, and damn near unhittable, but at this rate it's only a matter of time before he needs some sort of arm surgery. Skenes and Jones in the same rotation could be deadly, but how long will that last? Who's to say? 

Similarly, we've reached a rare moment where Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Abbott are all healthy at once. Williamson's gonna be down for a while, but these four are not only healthy, but getting the job done for the Reds. And considering that they just got T.J. Friedl back, the Reds could go on a tear this month, even with the Pirates in full Skenes mode. So either way, something wild's about to happen in this division, and it's gonna be fun to watch.

Coming Tonight: His first contracted year with his new club went pretty poorly, but now he's gotten it together, and at the exact moment where the rotation needs him the most. 

Racking Up Twins

 

Right when everyone counted them out, the Minnesota Twins embarked on a 12-game winning streak, and are now 20-15 with a handle on 2nd place and a whole new set of eyes upon them. And the weird thing is that there wasn't a lot of major developments in this stretch that spurned it on. If anything, the major development is losing Byron Buxton, which, like Royce Lewis, just keeps happening no matter how they try to prevent it.

All that's really progressed is just a solid backbone that just won't let up. This year doesn't even have an OMG start from Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, which is what 2023 started with. Lopez has a 4.30 ERA, Ryan's 1-2. But they have 45 and 46 Ks respectively, and they're both still capable of being dominant. One of the major pitching developments of this winning streak has been the arrival of Simeon Woods-Richardson, one of the reasons for the smaller lettering if you were to ask Fanatics. Woods-Richardson has finally found his control in the majors, and has a 1.74 ERA and 21 Ks in his first four starts. None of these starters have a WHIP below one, nobody's pulling full dominance like even Skubal or Lugo, in terms of competitors. They're just steady. 

And steadiness has been getting the job done, because without the marquee hero in Buxton, or even a standout performer other than a momentary type, this team is still winning games. You're seeing contact production from unlikely sources, guys like Jose Miranda and Willi Castro, and power production from people you weren't sure could hit for power, like Edouard Julien and his 7 homers. Ryan Jeffers is still the best hitter on the team, but we're seeing Kepler and Correa begin to heat up, and Larnach pop right back into things. I still think there's a lot of pieces that don't work, and a lot of that owes to replacements for injured players, but this team seems like it's on the same page.

Now...the thing that nobody wants to talk about regarding the streak is that all the wins were against the White Sox, Angels and Red Sox. Like the Pirates' big April run, the wins didn't come against 1st place teams, or even especially competitive teams. Even the Sox went toe to toe with them after the 12th win. There's a chance that the Twins don't have it this good again, and may level out when faced with tougher scheduling blocks. And given my concern with the lack of a central titan at the moment, that could happen. The current series against the Mariners seems somewhat evenly matched, and they scored a few runs off a Seattle starter yesterday, which seems very hard to do this season, but the Jays and Yankees are up next, and those will be the true test. Seeing as the Jays just ended the Phillies' streak, they could be trouble.

The Twins, ultimately, have shown they have more complexity and unity than previously thought, and could still get a lot done this season if this streak is to be believed. It just takes them reacting like this towards better teams as well.

Coming Tomorrow- The idea was for there to be a rotation of young, strong homegrown arms built around this guy, and thankfully that's happened. 

Reed About It

 

I feel like so far this season, the storylines for the Mets have been more about things that haven't worked out. Inciting a brawl against Rhys Hoskins. Kodai Senga going from Opening Day starter to missing a large portion of the season. Missing out on Yamamoto. Getting J.D. Martinez and needing to wait for him to rehab from an injury. Trying to cheer Francisco Lindor on to encourage him to hit better. Alvarez, Megill and Raley all getting injured despite great starts. 

The Mets were 12-8 on April 20th, and are now 17-18. And in a year where it's already going to be very tough to remain relevant in the NL East, considering the power of both the Braves and Phillies, they're gonna need some positive publicity to get through the rest of the season. And considering the Phils will be in town soon, they're gonna need it pronto.

So for now, here's Reed Garrett. The guy who tanked in the majors as a rookie, became a successful reliever in Japan, then tanked in the majors for the past two seasons, stayed with the Mets out of necessity, and now has a 0.50 ERA in 18 innings. There's something the whole family can get behind.

It's a fascinating development because a lot of the bullpen assets the Mets put stock in going into 2024 haven't given them what they're asking for. Brooks Raley got injured immediately, so there goes a big bullpen asset from last year. Adam Ottavino's doing decently but he's 38. It's people like Jorge Lopez and Reed Garrett, guys everybody kinda gave up on, who are the most consistent bullpen people. Garrett has 30 strikeouts, which is more than two starters. One of them was the Opening Day starter. Garrett also has as many wins, 5, as the entire starting rotation combined. Meaning one 31-year-old reliever who only spent fractions of 2023 on a roster, is more valuable to this team than Jose Quintana, Luis Severino or Sean Manaea, three pitchers that seemed invaluable at different points in their career.

The Mets, I think, are just finding victories where they can. Their top starter this year is Jose Butto, that was never the intention but they're pleased with him. They nearly got a no-hitter from Luis Severino last week, they're just happy he can still throw smoke. Tyrone Taylor's hitting .288 off the bench, so the Houser trade wasn't for nothing. Baty, Vientos and Christian Scott can all perform in the majors, so that's good for the future. And Lindor's at least heating up a little. 

The Mets have the capacity to get better, and the depth to make something happen, but it's not clear what it will take, or who's going to be the person to jumpstart things. As for Garrett...if he keeps at it he might get to pitch for a team that appreciates him more than just being a fun story.

Coming Tonight: A sturdy starter for a team that recently went on an absolute tear when no one expected it.

The Man Who Was Traded for Himself

 

Ryan Pepiot getting traded was inevitable.

Pepiot was one of those players, in LA, whose starts were conserved and limited less because of his fragility, though given the Dodgers' recent struggles that did have a little to do with it, and more because it became more and more evident that the Dodgers weren't quite sure what to do with him. Every week or so, the headline 'Pepiot recalled from Oklahoma City' would be followed, what felt like a day later, with 'Pepiot returned to OKC'. And the way it worked, they always brought him up whenever a big starter got injured, and they would only need him until the moment one of their already-injured starters got activated. So two years of 'hello Ryan, goodbye Ryan', and that can't be a gratifying life. He was decent enough when he COULD get starts with the Dodgers, but as Josiah Gray, Andre Jackson and Michael Grove can all tell you, that really doesn't happen as often as you'd like.

So of course Pepiot would end up as one of the first guys the Dodgers were willing to part with then the opportunity came around. Yet it's still very funny to me that Pepiot ended up being dealt in exchange for another long-haired, hard-throwing top prospect who just hasn't gotten the right opportunity. That was exactly why the Rays dealt for Tyler Glasnow in the first place, in the deal that left the Pirates with three disappointing years of Chris Archer; Glasnow wasn't doing anything in Pittsburgh, and there was still some promise there. Then, when it came time for the Rays to pay Glasnow, they...deal him for someone who's essentially a younger version of him.

That is how the Rays do business. It's an endless carousel of young players who leave at the moment the Rays can no longer exploit them for low pay. It's a lot like Leonardo DiCaprio's house. 

But yes, Ryan Pepiot is the latest smart acquisition by Tampa, and now that he's gotten an open rotation spot he's of course been excellent. He leads the team in WHIP with 0.927, has the second-most strikeouts with 41, and the most wins with 3. Pepiot is a strong, durable, hard-throwing pitcher who knowingly fits perfectly into the gap left by Glasnow's absence. The only worrying detail is whether or not the comebacker that grazed him will limit him going forward. 

And it's good that Pepiot, along with Zack Littell, has revitalized this Tampa rotation, because there's a lot of dead weight elsewhere that isn't moving. The best hitter on the team right now is Ben Rortvedt, and he has no power bonuses. Same with Richie Palacios. The power-hitters, mostly Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena, aren't getting much done, and the contact-heavy angle can only work so efficiently if the games are still close. This is still very much small-ball, and when the Orioles, Yankees and Red Sox all have home run hitters, that isn't much. Josh Lowe coming back is good, but how much of an edge will he give this team?

The Rays are at .500, and struggling to stay out of last. There's still a lot that works about this team, but they're clearly struggling to live up to their previous years' reputation. And cloning Tyler Glasnow can only help that so much. 

Coming Tomorrow- No one knew who he was til he set foot on the mound at CitiField. And now he's one of the key figures of a very strange Mets team. 

Ketel the Truth

 

Two of the most crucial teams of the 2023 season have been completely upended by pitching injuries. One is the Houston Astros, the other is the Arizona Diamondbacks. Unsurprisingly I empathize with the D-Backs more.

The Diamondbacks, if everything was going perfectly well, would be rolling with a rotation consisting of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez and Brandon Pfaadt right now. At the moment, Kelly is hurt, Rodriguez has been dealing with injury setbacks all year, Montgomery has a 5.68 ERA, Gallen and Pfaadt are good but are trying to keep their ERAs down, and Ryne Nelson and Slade Cecconi are only decent enough in replacement. It's kind of upsetting to see Zac Gallen this human after an incredible start to his career, though to his credit 'human numbers' for him are a 3.38 ERA and 35 Ks. 

The lack of steady rotation action has cost the D-Backs to this point, as they're in third with a 15-20 record, behind the surprisingly spry Padres and the eternally-impenetrable Dodgers. It's obviously not the end, as there's plenty of baseball to play, but it does feel like the rotation being less reliable is the source of most of the problems here.

I think it's this glaring because this team's still hitting pretty well. Ketel Marte has used the 2023 playoffs to ramp back up to stardom, and right now he's undoubtedly one of the best players in the game. He's hitting .307 with 17 RBIs and 6 home runs, is still a defensive favorite, and has a 2.4 WAR after a month or so of play. I know the NL MVP race is gonna be crowded this year, considering what Mookie Betts, Elly de la Cruz and Shohei Ohtani have gotten up to already, but Marte seems more prevalent than he's been in years. In 2019, when he started the All Star game, it felt like a breakout moment but you weren't sure if it was indicative of anything. Now Marte's building on a postseason run and leading this team again. 

All you really need to know is that opposing pitchers seem to have cracked Corbin Carroll, but they haven't cracked Marte yet. Hell, they haven't cracked Christian Walker either, he's hitting .280 with 24 RBIs and 7 homers. EVEN JOC PEDERSON'S HITTING FOR CONTACT. Every time a pitcher thinks they've figured this team out, somebody else can show up and pound something away from the fielders. Moreno and McCarthy are heating up,  Suarez is still good for some power-hitting. There is complexity and nuance in this lineup, and in the hitting. People like Randal Grichuk and Tucker Barnhart are positively affecting the gameplan here. It's just a complexity that I wish spread more to the pitching.

This isn't a balanced squad right now, and the hope is that as more people come into their own, or get healthy, then they'll get to where they were last year. It just feels like that's miles away right now.

Coming Tomorrow- If you can't keep Tyler Glasnow, trade for the exact same type of pitcher. 

Bryce Upon a Rotation

 

A first place team whose starting pitchers allow 1 or less runs per game. I'd say that's pretty good.

There's been this narrative the past few years, 'what do the Mariners need to do to get past the Astros/Rangers', and it's always been nearly insurmountable. Every year it's 'they didn't hit well enough' or 'they ran out of steam late' or 'they just didn't have the roster depth'. Last year was kinda depressing, because they were right there, had the team for it, had the Astros on the ropes, and because of the lopsided schedules of both teams, the Astros ended the season in 1st place with a team that didn't really deserve it.

And now here we are, a Mariners team that's ahead of the Astros AND Rangers thanks to having the best rotation on the AL, some great hitting from people who didn't look like the heroes heading into this year, and one of the best bullpens in the game right now. I'm kinda surprised it's taken off like this, but I'm insanely relieved. 

Bryce Miller, after an incredible start to his career last year, has been responsible for some of the Mariners' best starts of the year. Famously, he held one of the best teams in baseball, the Atlanta Braves, to zero hits for the majority of the game. Right now he's got a 2.61 ERA with 42 Ks in 7 games. It was clear that with no Robbie Ray or Marco Gonzales this year, the brunt of the work would land on Miller's shoulders, and he's taken it like a pro. I think Mariners fans thought George Kirby would be in the spot Miller's in, and while Kirby's been a lot better recently, I think Miller has, and deserves, a big role in this team's rotation going forward. 

But yes, having Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock leveling their ERAs by just refusing to give up runs. There was a stat the other day where they've allowed 20 runs in their last 20 games, and that's insane. That's...extraterrestrial behavior. And add Andres Munoz still being a great closer and the bullpen rarely missing. Nobody can really hit this team right now.

Which does make things difficult for the rest of the team, seeing as, besides Cal Raleigh, Josh Rojas and I guess Julio, not a lot of these guys are hitting. Polanco and Haniger are producing, yes, but not hitting. Garver wasn't worth the deal, at least so far. There's not a lot of offensive production, and while people can show up enough to make this a 1st place team, the pitching is doing most of the work. And that is not ideal, especially considering Julio Rodriguez is here. I dunno, maybe he'll heat up as we go, but it's worrying.

I'd love for the Mariners to stay in 1st for a while, even if feasibly the Rangers are probably the better team. The Ms rotation might still be unbeatable, though, and will guide them a long way if they all hold up.

Coming Tomorrow- A World Series hero struggling to get his team out of the doldrums of the division.

Sockman Returns

 

This era of baseball is going to be lined with players who were never expected to be put into big situations but got there due to injuries and circumstance, and outdid the expectations placed upon them. We're not in a time where everybody's first choices can last the whole season anymore, you need guys who can be a backup and then grab the moment when nobody expects it. 

The Cubs have like 6 or 7 of those kinds of guys right now. And they're in first.

It means a lot that the Cubs have enough depth options to not be embarrassed once Bellinger, Suzuki and Steele hit the IL. Like, y'know who's the star of the Cubs outfield right now? Mike Tauchman. Yeah, the guy who did the same backup thing for the Yankees in 2019 and won raves. He's a professional fourth outfielder, a guy that you don't expect to use immediately but can do really well in a pinch. And so far, filling in for the big guys, Tauchman is hitting .267 with 10 RBIs and 3 homers in 90 at-bats. Only a few other Cubs hitters are doing that well, including Michael Busch, another 'in case of injury break glass' guy who's been very good at 1st base and has 6 homers and 18 RBIs. 

It's also nice to see the rookies getting stuff done as replacements for the ailing outfielders. Pete Crow Armstrong famously struggled in his first MLB go last year, and he's been a lot better this year, with 7 hits and 7 RBIs in 30 at-bats. Alexander Canario's a lot more lethal, he's hitting .273 right now despite less at-bats. These two are looking a ton more MLB-ready than they were in 2023, and it makes up for the fact that Matt Mervis still can't hit in the majors. 

The real intriguing detail with this Cubs team has been what's been bubbling up in this rotation. Because right now, the Cubs have four starters with an ERA lower than 2. Shota Imanaga is famously unhittable, he has 3 earned runs in 35 innings. Jameson Taillon's had a ton of great starts recently and has a 1.13 ERA. Javier Assad has a 1.97 ERA and is having his best season yet. Hayden Wesneski is up and starting and after a rough 2023 has a 0.54 ERA in 4 appearances. And in a couple days Justin Steele returns, and he still has a 1.93 ERA from his first start of the year. Nobody in this rotation has an ERA higher than 2. The Mariners rotation, the Phillies rotation, both of those have gotten a lot of publicity, but the Cubs have accumulated all this incredible starting energy without people looking.

Furthermore, the Cubs just lapped the Brewers thanks to a series against them and are now in 1st place in the NL Central. They've won 20 games, have some of the biggest stories in the league, and are proving the effectiveness of Craig Counsell at the helm. It couldn't be going better for this team, and that's even keeping in mind how many 'backup guys' they've had to employ that are doing well.

The Cubs finally have built a good enough team, after years of being out of options after the mildest setback. This is the kind of progress you look for in this sport. Let's hope they keep it up.

Coming Tonight: Speaking of the Mariners' rotation, one of those guys who doesn't give up runs most of the time. 

Kwan Base Percentage

 

I am doing this while Steven Kwan is questionable with a hamstring injury so I don't have to hold onto this custom, and this point, for like 6 weeks. 

The Guardians became a thing in 2022, and despite the fact that they've been to the postseason and have had legitimate performers, they haven't necessarily established their identity beyond what was already existing in their previous incarnation. I think of some of the early stars wearing Guardians uniforms, people like Jose Ramirez, Shane Bieber, even Andres Gimenez, and they're all people from the Indians days. You can definitely make the case that Gimenez has established himself as a premier Guardian, but I also would say that you can't really tell that story without talking about his mediocre 2021 where he was trying to find himself. 

There's really only one person who I wholly associate not only with the Guardians name, but with the Guardians' contact-first approach that's gotten them playoff time, and that is Steven Kwan. Quite possibly the last true contact machine in the bigs, in the grand tradition of Ichiro and Wade Boggs. Look at this guy go.

Already, Kwan has 47 hits, and he's hitting .353, which is third in the majors thanks to A.) Mookie Betts being incredible and B.) Alec Bohm having an inexplicably amazing April. Though the dream of the 200-hit season is very much archaic, if anyone's gonna be able to consistently hit 200, it would be Kwan, as he's become so good at just pounding hits and getting on base. Kwan also being a top tier outfielder and a two-time gold-glover helps to put him ahead of the pack, and at the front of the ledger in regards to the Guardians.

And look, while the Guardians are still a contact-friendly club, especially with Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez around, none of them are hitting .300. Ramirez is hitting .227, he's been honestly kinda human this year. While it is May, and a lot of these guys could heat up at any time, it's funny how...serviceable the contact game has been otherwise. 

Of course, the team is still in first place, thanks to strong, if not immaculate, starting pitching and one of the best bullpens in baseball. Even without the full emphasis on contact, this team still has Josh Naylor with 7 homers and 24 RBIs, one of the best infielders in the game in Andres Gimenez, and one of the best closers in the game in Emmanuel Clase. There are flashier teams in the AL Central, I think of the Royals and the recent Twins wins, but the Guardians are just really good, and have enough to just stay ahead of everybody else despite some flaws.

If Kwan has to miss time, that will dull them a bit, but I still think they'll be able to stay ahead of the AL Central. If losing Bieber didn't hurt them, maybe this won't either.

Coming Tomorrow- Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki are hurt. Send in the Sockman. 

The Sun Also Arraezes

 

Is it weird to anyone else that a perennial .300 hitter who's been a central piece on two different teams keeps getting traded?

I mean, I sort of get why Luis Arraez is getting out of Miami, he's the only person hitting well there. But...arguably he shouldn't have even been dealt to Miami in the first place. It says a lot when one of the guys who was supposed to replace Arraez in Minnesota played alongside of him for a month here. The Twins have only just figured out that middle infield, and Edouard Julien is not the multi-tool player Arraez is. But they wanted Pablo Lopez, and have made him even more legitimate. I still am not sure whether it was worth Arraez, but the Twins are doing better than the Marlins.

But I dunno, I mean the way Arraez has been playing, he doesn't seem like the kind of player to be dealt twice in 16 months. Which is to say I don't think the Marlins should have given up that easily. But, I mean, he was the only one playing well, maybe he asked to be traded, maybe the Marlins have just committed to selling and pulling apart everything they put together last year. But it just baffles me. 

Or maybe the Marlins' sudden fall puzzles me. Everything that was working about this team last fall is just completely blistering and dying, and it's gotta be disheartening if you liked that team last year. And now the .300-hitting centerpiece is heading to San Diego.

The one bit about this trade that does worry me is that Arraez has been having difficulty with his defensive numbers this year, and the Padres already have a ton of subpar defensive players. Jurickson Profar, Luis Campusano, Tyler Wade, even Xander Bogaerts are having depleted defensive years, and now here comes Arraez and his torrid 2nd base numbers. I assume the plan is to play Arraez at 1st, swing Cronenworth to an outfield role and start platooning people? They'll probably figure something out as they go, but maybe getting Arraez away from 2nd is the idea, even out his numbers? And I assume he'll still hitting .300, he seems very good at that.

I'm sad for the Marlins, but honestly this move is good for them. Now they're all kinda on the same page. Until somebody else takes off, I guess. 

Wheels in Motion

 There's really two main compact rotation units that have commanded the conversation recently. The Mariners' rotation, who've been working with Gilbert-Castillo-Kirby-Miller-Hancock and yielding excellent results, and the Philadelphia Phillies. Remember, like...8 years ago when the Phils just kept throwing people out there and hoping they lasted 5 innings? Y'know, guys like Jerome Williams, Jerad Eickhoff, Ben Lively, that ilk. It's wild that I can remember going to games and hoping we'd get through it. Whereas now you go to a game and you're basically set no matter who you see. Over the past few seasons I've seen starts from Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez in person, and the starting pitching has never really been an issue. 

Which brings us to 2024. Where the rotation is Wheeler-Nola-Suarez-Spencer Turnbull-Taijuan Walker/Cristopher Sanchez. And really the only one who's shed blood on the mound so far has been Walker, but that's in literally one start back, and one could make the case that the runs came from leaving him out there for too long. The main 5 have a combined 2.35 ERA, which is pretty fantastic.

And what's great is that the brunt of the work isn't just on Wheeler and Nola, the two veterans. Wheeler's having another great season, he's got a 1.91 ERA and 52 Ks, but he might not be even the best Phils starter right now. That honor would go to Ranger Suarez, who is 5-0 with a 1.32 ERA and has been dominant in a way not seen since his dangerous 2021. And then at the same time you have Spencer Turnbull, healthy for the first time in a while, with a 1.67 ERA and 36 Ks. Considering that Turnbull was a 'let's see if there's anything left' guy going into the season, for him to be as reliable as he's been has been a nice surprise. And it's at the point where I think Cristopher Sanchez knows he's #5, but he can still have big games and shut people out every so often. I think we're in good shape with this schematic, though I do wonder how Walker will continue to fit into things.

The Phils as a whole are doing all the right things. They were the first team to 20 wins, and they did so from second place considering that the Braves have a better record than us without winning 20. They just had Alec Bohm win a Player of the Week honor, he's currently hitting .362 with 30 RBIs. Turner and Marsh are also hitting like mad, Schwarber has 8 homers, Harper's been steady despite a low average and the bullpen's been on the mend. The team hasn't looked this good in April in years, and is hoping for a season that makes them a worthy adversary all-around. I hope they can build on this and keep being that hard to beat.

Coming Tomorrow- I was initially worried that his rookie contact numbers were the result of a fluke year. Turns out this is just what he does.

The Dugie Oddity

 

It's always the ex-Red Sox that look strange the first time they suit up for the Yankees. Johnny Damon in 2006 looked bizarre. Same with Kevin Youkilis in 2013, or Luis Tiant in 1979. The moment they start to really feel their own in a Yankee uniform is always good to savor, because then it doesn't look weird anymore. Jacoby Ellsbury, as maligned as he is, did have several moments of legitimacy as a Yankee. They were just too few. 

Which is why I worried a little when Alex Verdugo was dealt for. I initially thought he was bait for Juan Soto, but when the deal passed and we were left with Judge, Soto, Grisham AND Verdugo, and Dominguez and Jones somewhere down the line, I was a little confused. The last thing I wanted was for Verdugo to feel left out, and in New York, a city that's already had its issues with Verdugo, is not the place for somebody to get left out to dry. And so I just hoped that Dugie would continue his Boston progress and have a great season for us.

Now, let's not be coy here- Alex Verdugo still looks weird as a Yankee. Because of the 'no facial hair' rule, the blonde beard is gone, and all that's left is just an albino-looking tattooed guy. So he just looks like a secondary villain from a John Wick movie at the moment. And in his first few games, that was his main appeal. Some great plays in the outfield, the occasional contact hit, and...just looking really intimidating in pinstripes. 

Thankfully, Verdugo has become one of our most reliable players not named Juan Soto. He's hitting .269 with 28 hits, 13 RBIs and 4 homers, and is showing versatility already, with great contact moments, great power moments and great outfield moments. Verdugo-Judge-Soto has already been a fantastic outfield solely due to the impressive play out there, let alone all three's ability to terrorize pitchers. And already, the fans have taken to Dugie, and have respected his style of play as well as his fun-loving personality. A lot like Johnny Damon, Verdugo has become a hit here despite any indication that it'd be tricky.

The Yanks themselves have had something of a rough stretch, Brewers shellacking notwithstanding. They've dropped some games to Baltimore, which is gonna happen considering that they're just a more varied team than us. Rizzo's heating up but Volpe's cooled down. The starting 5 are still awesome but Rodon's last start has dulled his overall appeal. Eventually this team will be more than just The Juan Soto show, as Judge has bound to heat up eventually, but it's just a weak in-between stretch I guess. I expect improvement. We all do, I think.

And having somebody like Alex Verdugo doing well definitely helps.

Coming Tomorrow- Undoubtedly one of the best pitchers of the decade so far. 

2024 in Relievers-Turned Starters

 

If it weren't for Logan Webb, Jordan Hicks would be the most talked about starter in San Francisco. Through 6 starts, the former Cardinals wunderkind has been electric, with a 2-0 record, a 1.59 ERA and 27 strikeouts. He's not as overpowering and showoffish as he was in 2018, and he's learned to rein it in a bit while still dominating opposing offenses. 

What's wild about Hicks' 2024 is that it's an approach that the Giants weren't expected to take with Hicks. Upon his call-up in 2018, Hicks has primarily been used as a middle-reliever, and was only given some starts in 2022 when the Cards needed options. Last season, his middle-relief work was so strong that the Blue Jays traded for him and used him to bulk up their bullpen. But even with Hicks looking like a great fit for the Giants' already-strong 'pen, the team decided to use him as a starter, and plug him in with Webb, Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn. And it worked. That foursome has been strong as ever, and is a big reason why the Giants are still embedded in the race for the NL West.

Hicks, however, isn't the only big story this season involving a former relief piece spun into a starting option. There's actually a handful hanging around, and I'll go through some of the more intriguing ones.

Braves: I talked about him a little a few days ago, but Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez not only spent the 2023 season as a relief piece, he spent it getting beat up in relief. Yet something about Atlanta has caused him to turn things around and lead things off with a 1.50 ERA and 32 Ks. Lopez might have carved out a new niche for himself, and the Braves are certainly grateful.

Marlins: Eyebrows were raised around the league when it was announced that the Marlins would be using A.J. Puk, a career reliever with Oakland and Miami, in the rotation. Puk had been a starter before being called up by the A's, but was kept in the 'pen to conserve his innings and arm strength. However, considering how often Puk got injured with the A's, that didn't work. Puk did his best in a starting role for a team with no run support, but after 4 starts he had a 9.22 ERA and 4 losses. It's been chalked up to an injury, so we'll see if that helps, but certainly not a good first impression as a starter.

Padres: Before he was traded to the Yankees, Michael King was mainly used as a long reliever, a swiss army knife bullpen option. King started 9 games with the Yanks last year, but was more relied upon as a reliever. So far in his new team, King has 6 starts and one extra relief appearance, proving that his versatility is swinging towards helping the snakebitten rotation at the moment. King has a 5 ERA , but with a very impressive 40 strikeouts. He'll probably even out as he goes, as the Padres will give him much more of an opportunity to start than the Yankees could.

Rangers: After the Angels switched him to the rotation in 2022, Michael Lorenzen hasn't gone back, and has been a pro as a starter, despite finding fame as a reliever with Cincinnati. Lorenzen's Rangers era is already being seen as a comeback after his rocky finish with the Phils last year, and so far his 2-1 record and 4.24 ERA have been seen as promising by Rangers fans hoping not to lose anymore starters. 

Rays: It should not surprise you that the Rays are in this post, given their track record of flexible pitching. Zach Littell is the big one this year, he was primarily used as a relief piece by the Twins and Giants before the Rays picked him up last year and plugged him in for some starts. This year he made the Opening Day rotation and has been a very trustworthy presence there, with a 3.27 ERA and 35 Ks already. Tyler Alexander, another flexible pitcher with uses in many categories, is also on this pitching staff and could be relied upon to start in the future.

Red Sox: The Sox are honestly the king of this strategy, this current regime. We've seen Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck go from bullpen pieces to rotation royalty. Houck especially has been wonderful this year, with a 1.60 ERA and 41 Ks. And then we have Cooper Criswell, former Rays reliever who's been thrust into the rotation amidst the injuries, and HE'S been wonderful, going 2-1 with a 1.65 ERA in 4 appearances. The era of the Sox mega-rotation may be over, but they're getting a ton done economically with this strategy, and I'm here for it.

Royals: Seth Lugo was one of the most reliable relievers the Mets had during the late 2010s, and while he never got many starts due to the glut of starting pitching they had, he was certainly primed for it, to the point where he was being sold to teams last year as a starter rather than a reliever. The Padres bit, and Lugo gave them excellent material last year. The Royals signed him to a longer deal and Lugo's been rewarding them so far, with a 5-1 record, a 1.60 ERA and 31 Ks. He's already leading the leagues in innings pitched and batters faced, and after being a solid enough set-up man for years he's proving he can go 6 odd innings whenever it's needed.

So yeah, Hicks is just one of the many that's working out as a starter, and it's a trend I hope continues on all fronts. 

Coming Tonight: I wasn't initially following Bryan Cashman's logic when he traded for this guy, but I think I am now.