Kyle of Plenty

 

Well. Less than a week into the season and Kyle Schwarber already has 3 home runs. Business as usual in Philly.

I've gone on record that the second the Phillies signed Schwarber, I took a good, long look at him and went 'this man is going to hit a billion home runs in a Phillies uniform'. Cause this was the same offseason we signed Nick Castellanos, who I thought was a shaky pick even then, but Schwarber I just saw the upsides. Yes, hurt a lot, yes, occasionally one-dimensional, but look at those homers. And I was right. Thus far, Kyle Schwarber has hit 134 home runs as a member of the Phillies, eclipsing what he did as a Cub in more games. Schwarber had his lowest HR total as a Phillie last year, with 38. That's low for him. It's high for most other people, and before he had his 40+ seasons in 22-23, it was his own career high. 

What has changed, thankfully, since Schwarber's all-homer back-to-back years, has been his well-roundedness. Last year he finally started hitting singles again, and finished the year with 142 hits, a career high. Hitting .248 may not be wholly impressive, but considering that it followed a .219 year and a .197 year, it was welcome. If Schwarber can be relied upon for contact in addition to power, that raises his value, and last season he finished with a 3.5 WAR, tied for a career high with his blistering 2021. Schwarber has also hit 104 RBIs in 2 straight seasons, equally impressive considering he'd never reached 100 RBIs before then.

So what I'm saying is...the extension chatter makes sense. Four years ago if you told me Schwarber would be chasing an extension with this team I'd be surprised. But he's become a more complex, and more versatile, hitter, and even as the Phillies age, Schwarber in the lineup is still a very good thing. Obviously Harper and Wheeler are the true crowdpleasers, but Schwarber seems like the one guy on these Phils teams that it seems impossible to truly hate. Even in his .197 season he was still hitting 47 homers, and 5 more in the playoffs. You can't hate that. 

So far, the Phils are looking extremely good, despite having games against fairly unspectacular teams. The big exclamation point was being dominated by MacKenzie Gore for the majority of the opener and still striking back against the bullpen for the win. Wheeler, Sanchez and Luzardo look good, Nola...homers notwithstanding can strike people out, and hopefully the Taijuan Walker experiment will be short-lived before anybody gets hurt. I worry about Trea Turner's health, and JT's long term health, but enough things about this team, like Max Kepler, Jordan Romano, the degree Edmundo Sosa's murdering the ball so far, and the fact that the bullpen can hold down a lead again...really excite me.

It's early. Of course it's early. But Schwarber's off to a good start, and so are the Phils. Who knows who we'll end up.

Coming Tomorrow- Not everybody can get hit in the face with a pitch and come back from it like it's just a scratch. This guy ain't everybody.

An Even Start

 

The way the schedule works now, with every team playing each other and less weight put on divisional matchups, there's far less that feels deliberate about matchups at certain points, but I found it fascinating that the Rockies and Rays got to play each other in the first series of the year. Two teams that did the least of anybody in their division, with huge battles towards the top of each. The way things are being projected, both of these guys are predicted to finish in last place. And here they are, playing each other to begin the season. Get a firm grip early on, cause you may lose it soon after.

Have we learned much about either team? Nothing foundational. I mean, personally, I learned that Rays home games do look a little more majestic without the ugly dome lighting of the Trop. Getting them in an open air stadium with stands that fans can reasonably fill does wonders for them, it actually feels like a normal MLB experience. I do think some of the jabs at this clearly being a Yankee park are funny, like the retired numbers outside the stadium being for clearly not Rays [wow, they retired B.J. Upton's #2??], but the Rays do feel at home there. It's still Tampa. It's still nice a lot of the time. 

The Rays themselves came off well during the opening season. Junior Caminero finally feels MLB-ready, with 5 hits in 10 at-ats. Kameron Misner looks to factor in well, hitting a walk-off home run in Game 1. Pepiot, Littell and Bradley can all hold down opposing teams and stay sharp, which is a nice feeling in a Rays year without McClanahan, Springs or Glasnow. Three guys that can go 6 and not worry people. Last couple years the rotation's been an issue, seems fine so far. Even with Lowe ailing and Kim and Lowe out, you're seeing definite answers in multiple positions. Danny Jansen works as an everyday catcher. Jonathan Aranda could be an answer at a corner spot. Jonny DeLuca's certainly stealing enough bases to qualify for an everyday job. 

Logically, a team that is simply 'efficient' and 'good' isn't going to do much when compared to the top 3 teams in the division, but the Rays could still surprise people and be ahead of where they were last year.

As for the Rockies...there are answers, but they may not be the ones the Rockies are looking for. Their sole win thus far, they started Antonio Senzatela, who's been out for a year or so. Senza went four and a third, gave up 9 hits, but no runs. Struck out no one. Senza, if his first start is to be believed, is now a conservative, keep-it-in-the-infield type pitcher, who's aided by the team's defense [Tovar, McMahon, Farmer and Doyle help this] but can't really show off as much. Kyle Freeland, meanwhile, can still strike people out and keep runs down but gets let down by the bullpen, even away from home. 

Zac Veen, Adael Amador and Drew Romo, the three biggest foundational position players, did not make the team out of camp. In a surprise move, the Rockies went with Hunter Goodman as starting catcher, a position I literally had no idea he even played. I was thinking Stallings would start, but they apparently have faith in Goodman, and so far he has 4 hits and an RBI. Amador's position is currently being filled by Kyle Farmer, who's actually been responsible for 2 RBIs thus far. And Veen's RF is being filled by Nick Martini, who miraculously has 4 hits and an RBI. So this ploy to control service time worked out for the Rockies after all, just...not really in the wins column. 

The Rox do have Ezequiel Tovar, Ryan McMahon and Brenton Doyle to anchor the lineup, but Doyle is the one who 2025 could make or break. McMahon is a veteran standout, Tovar's for real, and Doyle's coming off a great season. So was Nolan Jones, and now he's back in Cleveland. Doyle so far only has a couple hits and hasn't been responsible for much, but it's early. Something could happen. 

Also, the team's only home run so far has come from Mickey Moniak, who was a late roster addition. Yes, they're on the road, but they have Michael Toglia and Kris Bryant. Oh, by the way, Bryant's yet to get a hit. Thrilling.

Both of these teams have a lot to prove, and at the moment one seems more determined to prove it than the other. But it's a long season, and a lot could happen. 

Coming Tonight: He's big, strong, and hits home runs. And that seems to be enough for some fans around here.

Living Like Larry

 

I know people are acting like this isn't strange, but this is strange to me. After years of letting numerous building block players leave in trades and free agency, John Fisher signed Lawrence Butler to a deal that will last until 2031, solely after a breakthrough season of Butler's where he hit 22 home runs and 57 RBIs, most towards the second half of the season. Butler will be a marquee star for the A's over the next several years, which include multiple seasons playing without a stated location in a minor league park in Sacramento, and eventually in a massive dome in Las Vegas, assuming it actually gets made. 

And I'm not disparaging Butler. I'm not. Dude's a great player, could be terrific in a full career. But if you have the opportunity to extend Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Marcus Semien, Sean Murphy, Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea, Liam Hendriks and Mark Canha...and you don't take it, and then you give an extension to the first guy that does more than 'mediocre' for your club...that's not gonna look great for you. That just means you're trying to learn but you're not actually learning. That's George Steinbrenner seeing Hideo Nomo succeeding in LA and getting Hideki Irabu. That's Aaron Boone hearing the calls for Dominguez and calling up Duke Ellis. That's Ross Atkins losing out on Sasaki and Soto and getting Anthony Santander. Now you're just trying to catch up, but are you really making the best decisions?

What I will not fault Fisher for is his tenacity in signing free agents and trading for big pieces. This offseason, the A's had holes in their rotation, so they signed Luis Severino and traded for Jeffrey Springs. Both starters have been excellent in their opening starts, going 6 innings, giving up 0 runs, 3 hits each and striking out 6 [Sevvy] and 9 [Springs] batters. Even if the A's are starting people like Osvaldo Bido and Joey Estes while their opponents sport better rotations, they have more efficiency than they have in a while. If Springs stays healthy, which is a tall order, that's an All-Star right there. Granted, I suppose he's a little relieved to be out of the bay area given his well-reported stance against frivolity, but he's still a very good guy to have around. We're coming off several seasons where their big standout was J.P. Sears, and now the pressure's off of him a bit.

You're also seeing, in addition to Butler, young guys coming into their own and dominating. Max Muncy was an Opening Day callup, he's already got a home run. Tyler Soderstrom already has 2 homers and 3 RBIs, determined to finally achieve a full MLB campaign. Jacob Wilson's already hitting well. JJ Bleday had a great outfield catch the other day. And there in the corner is Brent Rooker, also the recipient of a very nice extension, still hitting enough to earn it. This team is closer to good than it's been in a while, and they're very close to 'underdog competitor' difference. It won't be clear for 4 months how they match up against Detroit and Cleveland, but they might have something this year, which would be a relief for the fans if Fisher hadn't alienated them all last year. 

Somebody online posted something to the effect of 'imagine if the A's make the playoffs and to accommodate fans they're forced to play home playoff games at the Oakland Coliseum'. I want that to happen. Make Fisher sweat. 

Coming Tonight: 2024 proved he had staying power, but can 2025 prove he's a trusted Rockies battery member going forward?

Empty Nestor

 

That was a good 36 or so hours where the Brewers, between Caleb Durbin's strides in the spring and Devin Williams struggling in the ninth on game one, thought they'd gotten the better end of the deal.

I don't like that all of this happened to Nestor Cortes. He's a great guy that deserves all the best things to happen to him. Every time I've seen him pitch in the Bronx, while it's not exactly a Gerrit Cole start, you never exactly leave his good side. I collect the guy, I want him to succeed wherever he goes. If this had happened to, like...Jose Quintana or D.L. Hall or whoever, my conscience would be clean. But...Nestor Cortes's return to Yankee Stadium resulted in one of the biggest home run games in Yankee history, three of them happening on Nestor's first three pitches of the game. To say the Yanks clobbered him is an understatement: he had two innings of giving up 8 runs, and 5 homers, and that was it. 

There's obviously the worry that something's up with Nestor, even after he got back last year from the injury. Just immediately gives up unfortunate homers. This is the kind of thing where they do some tests and it turns out he has to have surgery or something. OR he just...snaps to it the next start, and Yankee Stadium was the problem. Which is likely. Nestor has every right to be mad at the Yankees, they rushed him, made him try and close a must win game, and let him be the goat. And then they trade him, and immediately have rotation depth issues. Which ironically the Brewers are also having, with Woodruff, Hall, Ashby and Myers all hurt. So Cortes goes 'I'll show them', and...gets lit up. As does the bullpen.

It's undeniable that the Brewers are a great team, and they were able to make Thursday's game close and today's game not a runaway with 9 runs, but...the rotation depth issue is gonna make it difficult for a little while. Even if Cortes doesn't need to miss time, he's capable of innings like these. As are the once-strong bullpen guys. So Chourio, Ortiz, Frelick, Turang and Capra getting off to great starts is very helpful, but they're still, like...giving up 20 runs. Most teams, most good teams, aren't doing that.

I still want the Brewers to succeed this year, and they likely will given the amount of talent, but today's game was a massive ego blow. And Nestor I still feel so bad for. It's nice that he's not a Yankee anymore while getting lit up, but...I hate that I'm saying that. Cause I LIKE Nestor Cortes. He's a great pitcher. But I'm not gonna say I didn't enjoy seeing my team score 20 runs against him and his compatriots. I'd prefer this be the norm for us than the norm for them. 

Coming Tomorrow- He's gonna make a lot of money this year playing in a sweltering minor league stadium. 

Signs of Life in Chicago

 

"Alright, let's try that again, this time good." - David Lynch, on set of Twin Peaks: The Return circa 2016.

There's a couple of possibilities as to what led to the outcome of the White Sox annihilating the Angels 8 to 1 on Opening Day. One possibility is that, after a miserable year last year, the White Sox may in fact have learned something, and are improving slightly. Another possibility is that the Angels are just that terrible. Or, it could be completely incongruent to the rest of the season, a mirage of hope in a desert. 

But here's what was clear from that game: this is a team that has people that can give you an eight run game, people like Andrew Benintendi, Lenyn Sosa, Austin Slater and Miguel Vargas, even if they might not all be 100 RBI guys. This is a team that has young starters that can go six innings without giving up earned runs, even if they have like only a month's MLB service time to their name like Sean Burke. This is a team that, despite being gutted entirely, still has Luis Robert Jr., who's looking to rebound from his upsetting 2024. And this is a team where the bullpen can hold a team down to just 1 run. These are steps forward from last year. I don't think this makes the White Sox a GOOD team, but they're definitely not as awful as before. 

And again, having a more confident, surging season from Luis Robert will help this team even more. He's 27, coming off a spring where he hit 4 homers and 8 RBIs, he's fully healthy and he's fully ready to attack. I'm sensing we get another classic season from this guy. The depressing part of that is, seeing as this is the last year of his contract, it is very likely that he'll be pawned off to the highest bidder in July, but considering that similar trades last year brought them Miguel Vargas, Drew Thorpe and eventually Braden Montgomery and Kyle Teel, there's a high possibility that this would be better for them in the long run. Remember, trading Chris Sale brought them Yoan Moncada, and trading Jose Quintana brought them Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez. There's a chance that even if Luis Robert gets dealt it still helps this team. 

As for Robert himself, I think he's firmly in the Randy Arozarena category of 'excellent producer, not the most consistent'. He's good to have on your team, has some amazing months, but he's not as reliable as some of the elite guys. Maybe he turns over a new leaf this year, but there's limits to his excellence. 

The White Sox have a chance to reclaim the narrative slightly and finally come off as a somewhat competent, fairly unspectacular team this year. There will be embarrassing losses, of course, but hopefully there will be far less of them. And Thursday's win was a good start to that.

Coming Tonight[?]: I saw him pitch 3 times at Yankee Stadium last year. Today he's pitching there again, against a guy I also saw pitch there last year. The uniforms are a little different. 

How It's Going to Be

 

The whole offseason, the New York Mets have been doing the 'we're better than the Yankees' thing. Like, 'oh they think they're so special but they didn't give Juan Soto his own box and now we've got him', or 'there's no disparity, we're all on the same page', trying to distance themselves from the Yankees. And yesterday, to be entirely fair, they did something that the Yankees have only done once since the 2023 All Star Break, out of ten opportunities: they lost to the Houston Astros.

And that is gonna be the thing that kills the argument for the Mets. The Yankees' whole thing is they can beat the Astros, especially when it doesn't matter. Last year they began the season with a 4 game sweep of the Astros, which made the Astros so mad that Ronel Blanco immediately no-hit the Blue Jays. I honestly saw this as the turning point of the Astros' dominance: now that the Yankees can beat them, they may not be as mighty as they were. But yesterday, with help from Cam Smith, a guy they literally drafted last year, and Framber Valdez, who may be one of the least flashy aces in baseball, the Astros shut down the Mets and won the first game of the season. 

As it was later discussed, the game came down to the heart of the Mets order with Josh Hader on the mound. This was the kind of thing that the Mets had prepared for all offseason. Getting the right people in position to succeed when it counted. It happened last year against the Phillies. And now they had Juan Soto. Two outs, men on first and third. If you'll recall, last year's first game in Houston had some true heroics from Soto, albeit in another uniform. But now the stage was set for him to potentially tie, or win, the game...and Juan Soto struck out. More money than God and he can't do what he was doing last year under similar circumstances.

And look, it wasn't just Soto that didn't rise to the occasion. Vientos went 0 for 3. Luisangel went 0 for 3. Lindor had the team's only RBI and still went 0 for 4. Jesse Winker was a late sub that did nothing. Clay Holmes, given the start on a similar revenge mission against the Yankees, was dealt with sufficiently by the Astros' lineup. With more money put in, more eyes on them, and more pressure, the Mets couldn't do what they'd done with far less.

Logically, there are 161 games left. They're not all gonna go this way. The goal is to ensure that this isn't the lasting impression of the Mets, the team that had all the tools and couldn't do anything with them. They were already that team a couple years ago, and they can't go back. Alonso, Soto, Lindor, and Vientos need to deliver. The rotation doesn't look intimidating on paper [Megill, Canning, Peterson...I mean, compared to what the Phils are working with it's not too enthralling], but they're capable of a lot. Edwin Diaz needs to be immovable. Everything that didn't come together in Game 1 needs to. 

The pressure is on. And if these guys aren't up to the task, it's gonna be a long year.

Coming Tomorrow- He withstood an excruciating season, and he's gonna ensure it never happens again.

2025: Revenge of the Little Guys

 

I wrote a post at the onset of last season that basically said that anyone expecting a monopoly season would be mistaken, and that there would be enough smaller teams to subdue the Titanics. And I was sort of right. Last year was defined by huge booms from unassuming teams like the Tigers, Guardians and Royals. But ultimately, three of the biggest payrolls in the league made it to the Championship Series round, and two of them fought in the World Series. So, all this about how the Dodgers aren't going to waltz to the end in 2024, and that's exactly what they did. I, for the latest of several times on this blog, was wrong about something. 

However, the success by the big teams in 2024 means that 2025 can potentially be something pretty exciting: a response year. Oh, you thought it could be so predictable. You thought the Dodgers could buy their way to a dynasty? Well watch this.

The seeds of some really cool future MLB stories were sowed last year without anyone noticing. During a series against the Yankees, a team that would soon make the World Series, the Nationals brought up Dylan Crews, their top prospect. He didn't do a ton last season, but he, as well as fellow 2024 call-up James Wood, is primed for greatness in 2025. His spring stats match up well, with 15 hits, 5 RBIs and 3 steals. Meanwhile, James Wood had 4 home runs and 11 RBIs. And let's not forget that at some point, the Nats are going to call up Robert Hassell, another Soto return, and he was hitting .370 this spring. Those three outfielders could last a while in Washington, and 20 years into the team's residence in DC there's never been a better time to buy stock. 

Meanwhile, Jackson Jobe played a very minor role in the Tigers' 2024 postseason run, being brought up as a reliever and making occasional appearances for an inning. He did give up 3 postseason runs, but given that these were Jobe's first four MLB games, it is somewhat understandable. In camp this spring, Jobe proved he was finally ready, with 5 glorious starts, and a 3.68 ERA, 13 Ks and a .980 WHIP. The Tigers will be fine rotation-wise this year, they have Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson and, surprisingly, Casey Mize all looking really good. But Jobe becoming an MLB success will be the best thing for them, because that's a starter that can guide them through this period where even their marquee guys are a little older and the next rookie sensations are still waiting to come up. If Jobe can light the way, they might be fine for the rest of the decade.

A lot of stories like that in smaller markets. The A's have a ton of young guys ready to dominate this year. The Pirates are fired up after last season and Skenes wants to take them higher. The Sox are bringing up Kristian Campbell to start the year and Marcelo Mayer might be a little further down the road. There's a lot that could happen from players, and teams, you're not thinking about. And as predictable as the end of 2024 might have been, 2025 might be a wilder, more thrilling ride. 

May all your favorite players stay healthy. Let's go!

Ross of Control

 
I think one of the biggest themes of the offseason was infuriating ownership. You know, what John Fisher was unable to do, what Bob Nutting is unable to do, what the Rays can't figure out. And there are enough people that don't put money into the team that Ross Atkins can hide behind them. Because Atkins DOES put money into the team, but he does it enough that it distracts from the times he doesn't. Like when he had not quite enough to net Shohei Ohtani, or not quite enough to net Juan Soto, but enough to net Anthony Santander. 

Already, one of the big stories of 2025 is going to be the fate of the remains of the 2019 rookie crew in Toronto. Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk represent the homegrown core of a team that should have had more postseason success than this. They were able to bring in people like George Springer, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and now Andres Gimenez, AND KEEP THEM. And yet they still haven't won a postseason series, something the John Gibbons teams could do easily despite having far less homegrown talent. A combination of a tough division, unforeseen circumstances and the occasional piece that DOES leave has done them in. And 2025 could be the last chance for them to do anything, as Guerrero wants a bigger payday and Bichette may be similarly on the way out.

And that's why a singular Jays move from this postseason continues to vex me. Trading Spencer Horwitz, who was supposed to be an integral young infield piece for them going forward, for Andres Gimenez, who is a year younger and an all-around better player. And fundamentally that is a smart move. Upgrade the infield, pair Gimenez with Bichette. This is a move that could strengthen the Jays defensively going forward, even if 2025 doesn't happen.

But the thing about it, which is a weird thing to sound out, is that the Cleveland Guardians, in trading their all-star, three time gold-glover that they'd signed for the remainder of the decade, is that the Guardians had the leverage. They nearly got to a World Series last year. Their farm system has made them competent for the next several years. They can trade Gimenez because they have Gabriel Arias for the moment and both Juan Brito and Travis Bazzana in the plan for later. They can afford to give up a second baseman. 

And more proof that Cleveland had the leverage lies in what they did with Horwitz. Before the ink was too dry on the Gimenez deal, the Guardians swapped Horwitz to Pittsburgh in exchange for, amongst other pieces, Luis Ortiz, who'd immediately factor into the rotation and allow for slightly more stability in an injury recovery year for multiple starters. The Jays needed all the infielders they could grasp [a far cry from 'sure, have Kevin Smith'], and the Guardians were givin' em away. The Guardians are playing from first, and the Jays are playing to stay out of last. So even if they potentially got the best player out of all of this, Gimenez may have walked into a less prosperous situation than Cleveland. Him and Bichette will be a good DP combo, but who knows how long that'll last.

Meanwhile, the Guardians aren't sweating about lessening the defensive impact of their infield because they still have Brayan Rocchio. Rocchio had an incredible defensive season last year, despite coming up short at the plate. He's crossed that threshold where the team can trust him with the infield, and give Arias or eventually Brito over as a DP partner. He's not Lindor caliber, but he's been hitting well this spring, so maybe things turn around. It happened for J-Ram, let's be clear.

The Guardians are good enough now that they don't need Andres Gimenez, whereas the Blue Jays are desperate enough now that they really need him. And that should tell you how both their seasons are probably going to go.

Responding to Anticlimax

 
For Carlos Correa and Randy Arozarena specifically, 2024 was an embarrassing year.

These are two of the biggest playoff performers of the last ten years. Correa was a perennial machine with the Astros during their postseason runs, Arozarena made a name for himself as a destroyer in 2020 with the Rays, they wouldn't be as legendary without those postseason numbers. Last year, both were on teams with clear shots at October. Correa, as he had been, was a star for the Twins, who had been thick in the wild card race all year. Randy Arozarena was traded midyear to the Mariners, who revitalized his ailing swing and were still close enough to Houston to look to compete. Neither team made the playoffs. The Twins were lapped by both Kansas City and Detroit, and the Mariners couldn't compete with any of them despite the best rotation in the bigs. 

It must have been a little nice for them that the Astros were eliminated immediately and the Rays didn't even make it. But it still hurt.

Correa honestly has become a fascinating MLB figure. He hasn't had a full career drop-off, like somebody like Javier Baez or Anthony Rendon, but his Twins years have been less overwhelmingly dominant. Last year Correa was on top of his game again, hitting .300 and leading his team...and then he got injured. This is his 11th season in the bigs, which is wild considering I was in Chicago for one of Correa's first games for the Astros. The man has compiled 63 postseason RBIs, and has a 44.3 career WAR, so clearly he's accomplished a lot. But my worry is that, like a lot of great players, his stats will continue to peter off during his 30s. This is his age 30 season after all, the true test. I picked Correa up for my fantasy team, mostly because I was surprised he was still there. He's still capable of great things absolutely, but we're in the hazard zone in a sense. 

Correa does seem to have a decent enough Twins team this year, with basically every position prepared with viable backups like Harrison Bader, Jose Miranda and Brooks Lee. Already this has come in handy, as Royce Lewis, once again, will be missing time. There's also the possibility that Byron Buxton could as well. If enough things go according to plan this team could make a deep run, as...these things tend to happen every other year in the Baldelli era, but it will take a lot of people, Correa included, staying healthy.

Arozarena is slightly more complex. He came in as a multifaceted hitter with power perks and postseason readiness, but since his ROY season his dimensions have lessened. It may shock you to learn that Randy Arozarena has never hit more than 23 home runs in a season, and still has yet to attain a 100 RBI year. This will be HIS age 30 season, and 2024 was already seen as a step down for him. He hit .211 and struck out 101 times. And I think, after the trade to Seattle, he accomplished more in less time, yet still only hit .231. The perks with Arozarena are outrageous, and the Mariners traded for him to ensure they had people in their lineup that could hit, which were becoming more and more rare last year. But I think even he struggled to do so. 

The #1 goal for the Mariners this year will be to avoid the lineup black hole that conquered the team. The rotation isn't currently much of an issue- George Kirby will be out for a bit, but Emerson Hancock can step in for a spell, and the other four look good. But if any offensive production can come from people like Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, J.P. Crawford and Mitch Haniger, that would quiet the critics of this team. And to their credit, Garver, Polanco, Ryan Bliss, Donovan Solano, Victor Robles, Luke Raley and, yes, Arozarena himself, have looked a ton better this spring. But against teams that didn't have as much issues hitting last year in that same division, it only looks so impressive. 

Now, both the Twins and Mariners look to rebound and compete again, but it won't be easy for either team. In the AL Central, the Guardians, Royals and Tigers still look intimidating and competitive. In the AL West, the Rangers and Astros at least made palpable moves. I'd love for both of these teams to be competitive this year, and fall on good luck, but it won't be easy, and a lot has to fall into line. 

Adventures in Massive Gaping Holes

 

Once again this year, some of the biggest division battles will be fought in the East. In the AL East, the Orioles and Red Sox will both be trying to dethrone the Yankees at the top, while in the NL East, the Phillies and Mets will be battling it out against the Braves. The key is tracking progression. The Phillies didn't do much this offseason and are getting older, while the Mets did everything and have so many young stars taking over. The Red Sox went all in on a rebuild, and the O's still have young guys ready to go. 

So it helps, in order to keep up, to not have massive vacancies in comparison to previous years. Injury-related or not. And so while they haven't been downgraded completely, this might be a tougher year for both the Yankees and the Braves. Even if one of the Braves' big vacancies is kinda the Yanks' fault.

The Yankees made a World Series last year. They talk about it a lot. But two of the reasons why they made it there, Gerrit Cole and Juan Soto, will not be playing for the Yankees this year. Cole is injured, Soto's in Queens. And Giancarlo Stanton, additionally, will be out for a while. And so this team has to convince the league it's still a force even if they proved last year that Soto was one of the few people actually improving things last fall. Getting Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Devin Williams does help. Bellinger's been amazing in camp, Williams is a surefire closer, Goldy is steady and also leaves the door open for Rice at some point. But the values have shifted. It's no longer 'Judge and Soto at everyone's throats', it's a little more spread out. I think this could work, ultimately, but the whole team needs to step up if it wants to get anywhere close to where they got last year.

And the biggest factor is going to be the rotation. Carlos Rodon and Max Fried have both been quoted in saying they'll step up in Cole's absence, and I believe them. Rodon is a fantastic big game pitcher who's thrived in the 2 spot in New York and has been ramping up for another excellent year. Fried thrived at the top of the rotation in Atlanta but was also used better behind bigger names. I think he can ultimately be an ace-type for us, especially if he continues his excellent run, but it's gonna be a matter of if the specter of Cole, and Cortes, chases us. Beyond those two, there's Schmidt, who's hurt, Gil, who's probably missing some time, and Stroman, who's still not a fit for Yankee Stadium. And beyond them, you may have to go with Will Warren or potentially Clayton Beeter. It could all fall into place but there's some worrying details.

The Braves, meanwhile, are without Fried, they've lost Charlie Morton and Travis d'Arnaud in free agency, they're still without Ronald Acuna, and they may be without Jurickson Profar and Sean Murphy for a bit. You look around and despite the presence of Riley, Albies, Sale and Ozuna on this team, you're seeing a drop-off. The outfield going into the season will be Michael Harris, Bryan de la Cruz and Jarred Kelenic. Harris is the one I'm not worried about, he's still a very trustworthy outfield bat with a lot of perks. But Kelenic still hasn't had the overpowering season prospectors raved about, and de la Cruz was brought on to essentially back up Profar. The Pirates expected a lot from de la Cruz at the deadline, and he did not deliver. Hence feeling like a downgrade here. This could still work, but without the excellence across the board guys like Orlando Arcia are standing out more. The team is also going to have to start Drake Baldwin at catcher to open the season, which is a risk that could go either way. 

And like the Yankees, the Braves are working with a strong core at the top of the rotation, namely Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach. Both Sale and Lopez do not have luck on their side, and will need to work hard to continue their 2024 successes, but Schwellenbach looks like the real deal. But beyond him, there's only question marks. Ian Anderson's back from surgery it seems, but will he provide anything? Same with Spencer Strider--is he still capable of his 2022-3 dominance? And will anything come of Grant Holmes, the AAA-lifer who the Braves still haven't figured out a solid use for? I wanna say there's more definite pieces than the Yankees' rotation right now, but will all these pieces stay healthy?

Both of these teams could compete without an issue, but there's enough question marks and potential issues that people aren't completely sold. I'd love for the Yankees to repeat, but it takes a lot more coming into line than, arguably, what got them to the World Series last year. 

No Pressure

 

And so here we are again. 2022 the Phillies make the leap, 2023 the Phillies prove it's not a fluke, 2024 the Phillies are unstoppable but aren't used to a first round bye. We're speedrunning the Charlie Manuel years. The difference is they had a World Series trophy to show for themselves by this point. The Phillies don't have that. 

In fact, the Eagles winning a Super Bowl may have made things trickier for them, because now this fanbase is gonna expect similar results. And if Philadelphia sports fans are anything, they're easily disappointed. And impatient, that's important too. So now that one of their teams can succeed, the ones that aren't are going to stick out even more. This city has already abandoned the Sixers, which wasn't difficult. And now we're gonna see how they do with this Phillies season, which could go a number of ways depending on A.) how the Phillies fare, and B.) how their competition fares.

The Phillies, as discussed, reached their peak last season. The fear is that now a lot of these guys are gonna be slowly heading off their peak, the same thing that doomed this team in 2012. I am very worried about the prospect of Zack Wheeler, after an incredible start to the decade, being less than perfect this year. I'm also worried about Trea Turner after a subpar defensive effort in 2024. And I'm worried about Bryson Stott and Johan Rojas still playing background roles in this team instead of truly blossoming. This has all the makings of diminishing returns, and while so many of these guys have the talent to power through, I'm still very worried. 

Cristopher Sanchez is eyeing a much larger role this year. Last season was proof he could be a big game starter, and he was very trustworthy down the stretch. This year, even with Nola and Wheeler back, and Jesus Luzardo onboard, the question marks surrounding Ranger Suarez could be a mar in a perfect rotation, and if that's the case, a great season from Sanchez would be even more valuable. In 5 spring starts so far, Sanchez has a 1.62 ERA and 19 Ks. That's the best stretch from a Phils starter in camp so far, as Wheeler and Luzardo have been shaky, Walker got lit up today and Nola and Seth Johnson have been slightly below. Ranger Suarez has also been sharp, but he's not striking as many people out, so that's interesting. This team will have Max Kepler, Jordan Romano and Joe Ross in key roles this year, and they've all been fantastic in camp.

However, the obvious factor into their season is that they still have the Braves and Mets to contend with. The Braves will get Ronald Acuna back at some point, and are still very much in their peak period. The Mets bulked up and got even stronger, and they're gonna want the division. Both of those teams are trending up, and the Phillies need to stay ahead of them. I worry that'll be too difficult for them, but I'd really like to be proven wrong. 

You Probably Should Call it a Comeback

 

A brief look into the life of the bloke who writes these: I recently joined a local strat-o-matic baseball league. It's basically D&D for people who prefer light beer to IPAs. I'm not the youngest one in it but I'm close. I inherited a team that did poorly and the idea is to turn it around, maybe do a little better than the last guy did. 

Anyway, a very telling factor of the modern baseball scene is that you come to expect players having uncarded seasons out of the blue, or seasons where you know they'll be partial/barely there the next season so you sell to a competitor so they can get the good innings before they run out. My team had Matt McLain, but since he didn't play at all in 2024, I can't use him this year, but I can definitely hang onto him to ensure I get the results of his 2025 season. McLain so far is looking great in Cincinnati, and having him in the infield ensures the Reds can hopefully make a push this year. So I'll hopefully get a good card for him next year.

The 'gap year' that many players are forced to take due to injuries is basically expected now. And moves are made to account for them. Plenty of great players didn't play at all last year. I already know Joe Musgrove and Gerrit Cole are out this whole season. But the feeling of getting somebody back after they've been gone for a while is a very good feeling, and this spring alone we've seen some returns, in full condition, that have made some fans very excited for the year to come. 

Angels: Well, Mike Trout is back, and so far he's been playing as well as usual. Still has the power bat, still has the swing of a generation. Hopefully moving him out of center will keep him healthy for longer than a month. 

Blue Jays: Alek Manoah has been in camp, and has been throwing. It's not certain he'll be ready for Opening Day, and anything he's done post-2023 has been scaring people anyhow. The Jays have a rotation enough without him, but the hope is that he eventually makes an appearance and can start games again.

Braves: Well, Ian Anderson's high on the depth chart, and he's been strong in Spring Training. So he'll be back this year. I think Anderson is the poster child for young pitchers cooking their arms too early, cause that twisting motion ensured the surgery was inevitable. Spencer Strider should be back a little later this season, which will also help.

Brewers: After a year or rehabbing, Brandon Woodruff finally seems like he's nearly back on the mound. He's thrown sim games, and I assume later down the road he'll get either a spring training or a Triple-A start to ensure he's good. The Brewers would love this guy back, as he'd bring their already strong rotation [Peralta-Cortes-Myers-Civale-Quintana is pretty damn good] to the next level. 

Dodgers: Both Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are expected to be back this year, and at the very least May is looking good. The Dodgers thankfully have enough backup rotation options that they'll be good if they get hurt again.

Giants: Jung Hoo Lee is back, looking to make the first-year impression he was supposed to make in his rookie year last year, before the injury. I really would like Lee to become somebody big for the Giants, he seems like he could be a fun hitting machine that they kinda need right now.

Guardians: Shane Bieber made the decision to return to Cleveland, even as Boston tried to swoop him up. He clearly loves pitching for the Guards, and even if he may not be Opening Day ready, he wants to help this team compete. It'll be cool to see him back helping Bibee, Williams and Ortiz out with the starting effort. 

Marlins: Not only is Sandy Alcantara back in camp for the Marlins, and thriving, but he'll likely be the Opening Day Starter. Before the injury the Cy Young winner was one of the most consistent and dominant Marlins pitchers in years, and his Spring material has made people extremely excited, as they should be. Hopefully he'll ensure this team finishes with their dignity intact this year.

Mets: Ronny Mauricio missed all of 2024 with an injury before he could truly 'break out' with the Mets, but then the team ensured they could make an NLCS without him. By the time he rejoins the action, probably in late April or so, the Mets will be going with McNeil as the primary 2B and Baty behind him. Meaning Mauricio might need to toil in Syracuse for a bit before he gets his next shot, a feeling it's looking like Luisangel Acuna will share.

Orioles: Felix Bautista is back, healthy, and taking the ninth right back from Yennier Cano. O's fans are very excited for this. 

Pirates: Endy Rodriguez lost his shot at a relatively open catching spot in Pittsburgh by getting injured and missing all of 2024. He now enters camp, hitting well by the way, third in line for the position, behind Henry Davis [still trying to find MLB luck] and Joey Bart [who will likely get the job]. He may need to wait a bit to get another shot.

Rangers: Jacob deGrom looks extremely good this spring, and is expecting his fullest campaign yet with the Rangers. Tyler Mahle has had good starts but missed one or two, and so the injury concern returns. Evan Carter seems to have gotten over his back issue and looks to favor heavily into the team's offensive output. 

Rays: In two starts in camp, Shane McClanahan has allowed no runs. It's looking like he's back, and a rotation led by him will no doubt ensure the Rays are better this year. Now if only they had some place to play.

Reds: Brandon Williamson looks to be back this year, and will likely be a bullpen arm, mostly to ensure he doesn't blow his arm out again, and also because the rotation looks pretty full this year for the Reds. 

Red Sox: Lucas Giolito, Liam Hendriks and Trevor Story are all healthy and thriving for this team, and that, along with the many young players the Sox have in abundance, is very much scaring me.

Rockies: German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela are both back this year, and both plugged back into the rotation. At the very least that'll be up from last year if they stay healthy. Then Ryan Feltner giving up 14 runs to the Phillies won't stand out as much. Also, more Kris Bryant this year, and hopefully more Nolan Jones. Very promising.

Together We Once Wore Grey

 

I was thinking about the 2018 Padres the other day. There's the joke that men think about the Roman Empire constantly, but I can bet you nobody thinks about the 2018 Padres. There are names on that team that just shouldn't be spoken. Christian Villanueva. Joey Lucchesi. Carlos Asuaje. They had a guy play in all 162, but he only hit .250 and most of you probably don't remember who even did that. It was dire. Positively dire. 

And yet a youth movement was beginning to brew. The people that don't remember those dreary-ass end of the 2010s Padres teams remember that there were a ton of prospects that popped up around then and looked to take over, and...most of them were dealt before the Seidler runs. People like Nick Margevicius, Cal Quantrill, Chris Paddack, Manuel Margot, Franmil Reyes, Ty France  and Luis Urias. They were even more prominent in 2019, when the biggest prize of the farm system, Fernando Tatis Jr., took to the majors like a fish to water and, despite an injury costing him a chunk of the season, almost singlehandedly revitalizing the team. 

And now you look at the Padres and they're almost unrecognizable from that scrappy, homegrown 2019 squad. First of all they took back the brown and gold, that was a great move heading into 2020, I'm glad Machado and Tatis only had one seeing wearing those unmemorable navy and greys. But, as I alluded to, pretty much every youth piece the Padres had in that 2018-19 era got dealt. It's really just Tatis and Adrian Morejon, a guy who's evaded trades by just not being healthy til now, left. It's rare for a team to sell almost the entirety of the farm system and still make it deep into the playoffs, but the Padres have done this, and are still competitors.

Tatis, though, still feels like an odd figure in the development of this team. This will be his sixth season, and his age 26 season, and while he already has a cumulative 21.7 WAR, the stardom that Tatis was promised still seems slightly distant. It's not that he hasn't performed well, but he's never gone a season without missing at least some time, he was out for the Padres' 2022 NLCS run, and he was never exactly exonerated after testing positive for PEDs. Moving Tatis to the outfield in 2023 did boost his star power, and his power numbers last year were welcome, but he hasn't hit .300 since his rookie season, he's hovering around the .276 zone as a career average, and the injury last season robbed him of finally making an impact. He's still one of the best in the league, yeah, but I don't know if Tatis has delivered anything as powerful as his pre-suspension material. 

I do think Tatis will have a good season, but I get the clearest Juan Gonzalez vibes from him. Talented, capable of high highs, but the drawbacks are also unmistakably there. 

Meanwhile, let's have a look at where some of the other late 2010s Padres prospects have ended up, and if they're in any way comparable to Tatis right now.

A's: Luis Urias had a couple of years as an infield starter with the Brewers, then when that didn't pan out he bounced around as an extra piece. With Sacramento, he has a chance to be a depth infielder, and if his bat shows up the A's would greatly appreciate another power piece.

Blue Jays: Eric Lauer, a couple years removed from an injury, is still kicking around the league. He was decent enough in an appearance for the Jays. No clue if they have room for him though. They definitely don't have any in the rotation. 

Brewers: Manuel Margot's 2024 with Minnesota was not the greatest step forward, especially after years of being a reliable utility bat in Tampa. The Brewers plan to start Margot, but several of the outfield options have more versatility and more recent success. Odds are he wriggles his way through, but is he anything close to where he was?

Cardinals: Phil Maton has bounced around recently, but enjoyed postseason success with Houston and New York. The Cardinals took a flier on him a couple days ago, they could use established bullpen guys. Not sure if he makes the team, but if he does he could be a decent piece still. 

Diamondbacks: Josh Naylor just capped off a run of excellent seasons as an 1B/DH piece in Cleveland, cementing his status not only as a great power hitter but also a dangerous contact bat. The Guardians parting ways with him seems like a dumb move, as is putting him in Phoenix, where he fits right into the vacant 1B position that Christian Walker left. The D-Backs need guys like him, and if they seek to compete again this year I see Naylor factoring highly into things. Very satisfying to see Naylor find his full potential after his early days in San Diego scraping the surface of it.

Giants: Joey Lucchesi's comeback with the Mets was halted by the continued presence of injury luck. The Giants are seeing if he has anything in the tank. If anything he'll be a minor league depth option. Kinda sad to say he peaked with the 2018 Padres.

Guardians: Austin Hedges continues to be one of the most beloved defensive catchers in the game despite not doing a damned thing on defense. He will continue to platoon with Bo Naylor until Bo learns to hit more consistently. 

Mariners: Andres Muñoz was an all-star last season, proved he could work the ninth as well as provide consistent relief, and is very high on the M's relief depth chart going into 2025. Of everyone here, Munoz might have the highest chance for exceptional output, despite probably not getting the credit if he does so.

Marlins: Cal Quantrill had a great start with the Rockies last year but fell off hard. The Marlins could give him a shot if enough of their starting options aren't ready for April, but Alcantara, Weathers and Cabrera rank ahead of him, and Max Meyer and Valente Bellozo factor heavily for rotation spots as well. 

Mets: Luis Torrens was a backup catcher with the Mets last season, and thanks to Francisco Alvarez's injury looks to get playing time again this season. As a matter of fact, he might be the starting catcher going into the opener. As endearing as the Mariners fans were towards him in the early 2020s, the Mets fans could potentially welcome him even more. 

Pirates: David Bednar has been one of the best relief pieces in Pittsburgh this decade. Last year he had a down season. Either he recovers what he had in the early part of the decade or the Bucs dump him and go with Holderman in the ninth. 

Royals: Hunter Renfroe, after being on a different team every year for the past 5 years, has finally settled in Kansas City. He lacks the real pop he had in San Diego, but he's steady, reliable, and gets the job done. He looks to start this season in the outfield, at least until the Royals build up enough that he doesn't have to.

Twins: Chris Paddack is looking like a probable Opening Day rotation pick. The last few years he's gotten injured at some point, but last year was a relatively full picture of his skills, and while he hasn't touched his 2019 peak. Ty France, meanwhile, is coming off a weaker year after being the go-to 1B guy in Seattle for years. He looks to start at 1st in Minnesota, filling in for a gold glove campaign from Carlos Santana. The Twins have Jose Miranda ready to go if things don't work out though.

White Sox: Travis Jankowski won a World Series with the Rangers, and this is the thanks they give him? And the worrying detail is I'm not even sure if Janko will make the team out of camp for the White Sox. 

Whatever Yusei..

 I really don't know if Angels fans are gonna fall for it anymore. A fresh start, new free agents, the promise of a full season of Mike Trout, the possibility that this is finally the year something clicks. They've been here. Pretty much every year for the past decade, 'oh that didn't work last year but THIS is the team that does it'. It's literally the Charlie Brown football bit, cause the second they get too invested Mike Trout will get hurt and they'll fall to like fourth. 

And so this year I'm not really blaming Angels fans if they're hesitant to get their hopes up. Yusei Kikuchi went from being an average, middle-of-the-pack guy for Toronto to being one of the best things about the Astros in their last two months. Getting him to head the rotation while Tyler Anderson, Jose Soriano, Kyle Hendricks and Reid Detmers follow behind is a definite upgrade. There are proven backups in multiple positions this year, including Travis d'Arnaud, Kevin Newman and Yoan Moncada, to ensure that the injury frenzy that slowed the progress last year doesn't happen again. We already know that Zach Neto will be missing some time, and we of course know that Anthony Rendon will be missing the majority of the season [for old time's sake really], but this team is finally building depth options to prevent caving in. And even in a season where Mike Trout is far and away the best player on the team, and could sink the team if he gets hurt early again, that makes me a little more optimistic than usual.

Now, the downside is this team skews older now. Y'know, bringing in Hendricks, Kikuchi, Kenley Jansen and Jorge Soler will do that. There are little crevices for younger players like Caden Dana, Jack Kochanowicz and Sam Aldegheri to squeeze into, but Wash and co. have packed this team with veterans. For right now, as we're waiting for this team to really grow, that is fine. It could hold the Angels back from really holding a candle to Texas, which does have a fully formed, younger team, but it's better than throwing out Trey Cabbage and Michael Stefanic due to lack of options.

The most promising factor the Angels have seen this spring is Mike Trout's continued peak hitting. So far, in 7 games, he's hitting .308 with 2 home runs and 3 RBIs. He's still very much himself, and all he needs is a consistent campaign to really prove himself. Hopefully that is still possible. The Griffey comparisons are still very real, and Trout can outweigh them by having a year that eclipses anything Griffey put together in the 2000s. 

The Angels could surprise people this season, but the alternative to that is more predictability, and after so many seasons of the same thing happening, the fanbase could use something different. 

...And Expecting a Different Result

 For the past two seasons, the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates have flirted, in fleeting moments, with legitimacy, and have yet to actually capitalize on it. While the window isn't exactly closing for either team, this may be their most crucial season yet to compete. The Brewers, as good as they were last season, aren't exactly a shoo-in for 1st, and may have to sweat it out like everyone else [rather than just waltzing to first like the Dodgers likely will]. The Cardinals may still be bottom-feeding, the Reds may be another year or so away, it's all kind of up in the air. And it may not be for long.

The Cubs have come the closest to actually competing, and for the past two seasons have finished second with an 83-79 record. Just a dash above .500, just a smidge away from a wild card spot. Same record and everything, two years running. And this is the Cubs in the Bellinger era, the team that can sign talent and piece together a competent lineup but still isn't all the way there yet. Clearly changes needed to be made. I didn't think one of them would be 'trading Cody Bellinger for a Triple-A pitcher' but here we are.

Miraculously, the Cubs still managed to attract strong upgrades this season, like Kyle Tucker, Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Ryan Pressly and, honestly by accident, Ryan Brasier. Even with the probability of a rookie like Matt Shaw or Gage Workman nabbing an infield spot as Nico Hoerner heals up, this is a pretty great looking lineup, and it might have the most potential production of anyone in the NL Central. Swanson, PCA, Tucker, Happ and Amaya all look primed for great years. The rotation, which, for the first time in 10 years won't have Kyle Hendricks in it, also looks pretty well rounded. The goal is to get a more 2023-esque year out of Justin Steele, who took a good couple months to get there last year. Steele has looked pretty good this spring, as have most of the rotation so far. It's also reassuring having Ben Brown as a pretty strong depth starter if things go south.

But again, there's no telling how this team will fail to meet expectations as well. Who'll go cold at the wrong time, who'll just refuse to play well. Ideally this doesn't happen, but it just keeps tending to, and so I'm kinda prepared for it. 

The Pirates, meanwhile, have had collapses that are far sharper, and arguably funnier. The Pirates began the 2023 season as one of the best teams in baseball, and had a terrific record in April. And then the schedule evened out and they sort of gelled into their mediocrity. Last year the Pirates were at .500 at the All-Star Break, and with Paul Skenes, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz all having terrific seasons, it looked like they had a chance, even becoming buyers at the deadline. But their torrid August and even more pathetic September led them to a last place finish. It looked avoidable, and yet it still happened. 

This is very much a sign of the Bob Nutting teams, circumstances that seem advantageous that don't seem to work as well as before. The Pirates still have Isiah Kiner-Falefa from that competitive week, and while he does look to factor into this season at short, there's a ton of young competition throughout the infield, guys like Billy Cook, Nick Yorke and Enmanuel Valdez. Even Jared Triolo has been designated the professional utility man, and Spencer Horwitz seems to have taken 1st from him. IKF is looking to at least have a decent year, but even he might be in danger of a midseason trade if the youth progresses otherwise. 

Ultimately, even if the lineup has a few too many question marks, the rotation looks great. Skenes and Jones at the top, Falter and Heaney in low positions, and Mitch Keller still steadily providing strong work even if the stats don't always show it. Keller, despite the higher ERA, still made all his starts last season and still notched 166 strikeouts. This will somehow be his age-29 season, and hopefully the team will give him a firmer backing before his prime years end. I think he's gotta be thankful he's no longer the ace thanks to Skenes, but he still has a lot of responsibility in this rotation, and I think he still has time to capitalize.

The Cubs have the best put-together team, but the Pirates have a chance of surprising people and becoming a fun team down the stretch, a lot like the Tigers last year. If the NL Central shifts this year in favor of one of these guys, I think I'll honestly be here for it. 

Eagerly Awaiting the Payoff

 

Not everyone makes it as easy as Paul Skenes.

Sometimes you hit the ground running and give the team everything they've been hoping for immediately, with no learning curve. Paul Skenes took to the minors with the same energy he brought to LSU, and then to Pittsburgh with that continued energy, with no drop-off period. Limited innings maybe, but no drop-off. But then you have guys who'll struggle to live up to their reputations and make you wait. And either you stick with them or you give up. Joey Bart never got to become the successor to Buster Posey. Casey Mize looks really good in Spring Training play, but will it amount to a true comeback? The Tigers are holding out to see if it does.

In 2024, two of the biggest rookie prospects, and two very high draft picks, made their debuts. They were both demoted within a month. They both got a chance to resurface, and one sort of powered towards greatness, but both teams are waiting on full season efforts that capitalize on the hype. And yes, some guys just get there. Bobby Witt was FINE his first season and now is positively elite. Aaron Judge struggled to hit .200 in 2016 and can now hit .300 while also hitting 50 homers. Sometimes guys take time. 

What amazes me is that the Baltimore Orioles nearly gave up on Jackson Holliday, their kingmaker prospect, by including him in potential trade packages for Tarik Skubal. It didn't happen, but it nearly did. And yes, maybe Coby Mayo could have replaced him, maybe he was never intended to be in there, but...people did mention the possibility. This was when he was back in the minors. He had to be aware of the idea. 

In 60 games last season, even taking in account the midyear spike upon reentering the majors, Jackson Holliday hit .189 with 23 RBIs and 5 homers. By and large, he was basically a .219 hitter that fell victim to a really rough April call-up. Holliday's August delivered the majority of his offensive output, with 4 of his 5 homers and 15 of his 23 RBIs. If we can distill the energy of that August and stretch it over a whole season, preferably in a season where Holliday is older than 20, we could have something here.

So far, in 6 preseason games, Holliday is hitting .250 with 4 hits, 2 RBIs and a homer. This is an improvement, and proof that he's finally beginning to figure out MLB pitching. Not overwhelming proof, as NRI guy Vimael Machin has technically been more on target, but things are beginning to pick up. Holliday is poised to start the year as the everyday 2nd baseman for the O's, even if Ramon Urias still factors into the picture. The team still trusts him, and I think he'll capitalize on that this season.

Then you have Jack Leiter, another 2nd generation MLBer, one who was drafted 2nd overall and was a big star at Vanderbilt. Unlike Holliday, Leiter struggled in the minors before getting his act together in Triple-A, hence the 3 year development period. The MLB results once Leiter made it were...less than preferable. In 9 games, and 6 starts, he had a 8.83 ERA and 3 losses. It stuck out even more when Kumar Rocker, his old Vandy teammate, made it up and did a lot better. Rocker didn't win any games either, but he was a lot better at keeping runs down.

The Rangers have three rotation spots nailed down. Nate Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray. Tyler Mahle will probably get the fourth spot, provided he's healthy enough by the end of camp. And that last spot is down to Cody Bradford, Kumar Rocker and Leiter. Bradford has way more MLB level success, even if he was injury-limited last year. Rocker has some serious perks and hasn't really bombed in the majors yet. And Leiter...outlook-wise brings up the rear. He hasn't done much successfully in the majors, or as much in the minors. So far Leiter has been used as a bullpen piece in camp, and he's been fine. Rocker has gotten rocked, but he's been trusted to start. So that means Leiter, a lot like Dane Dunning, might be a depth guy this year, used in relief from the jump but could start if people get injured. And with deGrom, Mahle and Bradford in the equation that's a pretty large possibility. 

So that's where we are. The Orioles still have faith in Holliday, while the Rangers are losing faith in Leiter. This could be the season where one, or both, turn things around. Or not. And both teams have to decide how to respond to that. 

On Supremacy, Inevitability and One-Upmanship

 

After winning the World Series by signing Shohei Ohtani, the best player in the game, to a mega-deal with deferred payments, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Roki Sasaki, the best young pitcher in Japan, Blake Snell, one of the best pitching free agents on the board, Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, two of the best relievers available, Hyeseong Kim, an impressive Korean infield phenom, and Tommy Edman and Teoscar Hernandez, two of their most notable 2024 pieces in danger of leaving in free agency, and still had room left over to bring back Clayton Kershaw for another year, bring on Michael Conforto as a veteran OF piece. 

...and the other 29 teams have to just go on and do the season anyway knowing that the Dodgers, already the best team in baseball, just made themselves ten times better. 

The argument I hear most often in regards to the Dodgers, and to a lesser extent the Mets, breaking the game with big contracts and deferred payments, is 'well if all the other teams cared as much as the Dodgers brass about cultivating the best team, they'd spend whatever they could.' And it's an argument that makes...some sense. Like obviously someone like Bob Nutting or John Fisher isn't going to give billions away to players, because that's not in their business MO. The idea is getting someone like Steve Cohen, who WILL give all the money he has away to get Juan Soto and Sean Manaea, and that only happens if someone like Nutting or Fisher realizes the problem is them and sells the team. And just as a general point, no multimillionaire is ever going to have that moment of sudden self-awareness. They're all so removed that they're not gonna snap to it like the average person is expected to. It'll only be when they get bored and want something bigger. 

But there are a lot of teams that DO have the money to pull in big players, like the Angels, the Tigers, the Blue Jays and even at times the Rays [remember, they had all that money to offer the one guy they really should have done a background check on], and are either outbid or don't have the full circumstances to win over free agents. Of course people are gonna wanna come to LA, especially if they're getting paid all that money. A lesser deal to play somewhere like Detroit or Toronto isn't going to cut it comparatively. So yes, other teams can try, and they can go for broke trying to rope in the best players, but there's a reason the best players keep going to the Dodgers or the Mets or Yankees. Ultimately there is something appealing about playing there that the other guys just can't match. 

And so here we are. The Dodgers are too stacked, and are heading into a season where they're the overwhelming favorite. Even if people get hurt, and with this pitching staff that's always a possibility, there's tons of proven backup options. The infield is also stocked with plenty of depth options. Tommy Edman can play 2nd, 3rd and the outfield. Enrique Hernandez can play second or the outfield. Chris Taylor, and yes he is still here, can play multiple infield and outfield positions. Even Hyeseong Kim is a 2B/OF type. Andy Pages, and ultimately James Outman, are there if outfielders get hurt. This team has so many contingency plans that keep them one of the best teams in baseball even if people get injured, and that is in direct response to last season, a season which still ended in a World Series for them.

The great thing about baseball is that nothing is truly written, and there are circumstances that can rise and unseat predictability. But with a Dodgers team this good, is there anything they haven't prepared for? Is the window of this team riding high then losing in the NLDS fully closed? Or is there hope for an underdog to exploit a weakness this team hasn't thought of yet? I'm hesitant, especially after last season, but hopeful. 

Short Left

 

One of the big stories out of the baseball world today was the rise of 6'6 Yankee centerfield prospect Spencer Jones. I've kept tabs on him for a while, as I'd always heard very good things, and he's turning out to be a really nice, hard-hitting outfielder. Like Aaron Judge, he's big and tall and hits like crazy. People were worried about Soto leaving and I reminded them that Jones wasn't going anywhere. Between him and George Lombard, the youth has been giving Yankee fans lots to be excited about this spring.

But of course, the Yankees doing well means that across the country the Houston Astros are no doubt thinking of ways to get the better of them in the end, especially after a shellacking the other day. Which is why, to combat the Yankees' plan for a 6'6 centerfielder, the Astros have invested in an, um...5'6 left fielder. 

The idea of moving Jose Altuve to left emerged during talks with Alex Bregman. They basically said, 'look, if Isaac Paredes is our third baseman, we can sign Bregman to play 2nd, even if it means moving Altuve to left'. And the thing is, getting Altuve out of 2nd does feel like a step in the right direction for this team. Yes, Altuve has a ton of all-star nods and silver sluggers, but he's only won a single gold glove, and it was 10 years ago. The last three seasons, Altuve's defensive infield skills have been several points below average, as his journey to becoming a one-dimensional power hitter continues. The Astros have Mauricio Dubon, and they have Brendan Rodgers, and those are better defensive bets than Altuve right now. So, as it doesn't make sense to DH him with Alvarez holding court there, the die was cast and Altuve was moved to left field.

There's uh...a few fundamental issues with that. And I understand the irony of me saying this someone who is 6'7. But, you see...there's the thought that maybe a lot of balls are gonna fly over Altuve's head out there. Look, if they're arcing at chest level he'll be fine, but he is not the 'leaping catch' kind of outfielder that even Kyle Tucker was able to be. Jose Altuve's height has been the punchline of the MLB for a while, and this is just a sight gag waiting to happen. 

I think there is a case to be made that the Astros wouldn't put Altuve there if they didn't have immense trust in him as an athlete, and his ability speaks for itself. One of the most consistent hitters in the game, one of the most driven athletes, and someone who can help you a million different ways. But putting him in left is a risk that may not pay off. Boston learned this when they tried making Hanley Ramirez an outfielder, they learned the limits of Ramirez as a defender very quickly. Not everyone is Mookie Betts. 

What this says the most to me is that the Astros are desperately trying to reinvent themselves to distract from how many people are leaving. Verlander's gone, Tucker's gone, Bregman's gone, Pressly's gone. An outfield of Altuve-McCormick-Meyers, even if it's not BAD, stands out. George Springer used to be here, Kyle Tucker used to be here. Even Jeremy Pena, and let's be clear here, a very good shortstop in his own right, has the unfathomable task of trying to match up to Carlos Correa, and he's only done so much. The Astros have Hayden Wesneski and Ryan Gusto in position to start games in case any one of the many guys on injury watch can't make it to Opening Day. Everything about this team screams 'diminishing returns to me'. And yes, the Astros are the kind of team that can make things happen with nothing, but without Tucker? Without Dusty Baker? With Altuve in left?

Also, the big feat for me might be starting this custom season with the three teams I enjoy talking about the least. The Red Sox, the Cardinals and the Astros, including Altuve. Just getting 'em out of the way. I usually leave them for last this month. 

Nolan Noncommittal

 

The regular season is less than a month away, and several of the last unanswered questions of the offseason are finally being wrapped up. Jose Quintana just signed with Milwaukee. Both Lucas Giolito and Liam Hendriks look like they'll be ready for April. All three Japanese pitchers in LA are headed for big years. And yet there's still a pretty big unknown looming as we head through March. The Cardinals are still going with Nolan Arenado, despite their frequent attempts to trade him to save cap space. Regardless of the deal that was supposed to happen with Boston [before Bregman was signed] or New York [which is allegedly still on the table], Arenado is still reporting in Jupiter, and still very much a part of the Cardinals' 2025 plans.

And yet there's still the threat that he won't be. People have continued to use the term 'audition start' for a lot of Arenado's Spring appearances thus far, and it's getting to the point where Arenado is not only aware of it, he's getting pretty tired of it. There's the slightest possibility that these starts may be him trying out for, well, the Cardinals' 2025 roster, and not the Yankees' roster or the Astros' roster or whatever the hell. And he's trying to convey this, while also aware that the Cardinals' ownership, as any Cardinals fan can tell you, are actively trying to rebuild this year, hence them also shopping Erick Fedde for a hot second. 

Now, Nolan Arenado, on paper, should have a good case for anyone to snap him up. He's one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, his prime seasons make him a likely Hall of Fame candidate, he'll cross 350 home runs this year while averaging 25 per season, and he's really only ever missed 15 or so games per season. But the last two seasons have seen dips in quality both at the plate and in the field, resulting in a very average year for Arenado in 2024. If he'd been a 5 WAR guy again last year he'd have already been traded, and possibly could have joined Goldy, another future Hall of Famer primed for a bounce back year, in New York already. Even at 34, Arenado is still elite, trustworthy and impressive. But I think that after the Donaldson thing, the Yankees are afraid to trade for a past-his-prime third baseman again. They're already taking a risk with Goldschmidt, they can't afford both corners to be post-peak guys. Not in a year where they're trying to replace Soto; 2014 had a similar plan and it didn't go well.

So far this spring, Arenado has been fine. He's hitting .214, with 3 hits, 3 RBIs and a home run. Perfectly serviceable. Not elite. Not worth trading for. At this rate, maybe a midseason deal? Or maybe someone will swoop in this month anyway and take a chance. It could turn out fine, as he's still Nolan Arenado at the end of the day. But even in the search to finally remain on a true competitor, is Nolan Arenado really the right guy to rely upon in 2025?

Still, the Yanks may bite anyway. I think they've tried Stroman for Arenado straight up and that didn't fly. Maybe they retool it and surprise people. Or maybe somebody else surprises me.