Manny vs. His Thirties

 

Manny Machado, at 29, basically already had enough incredible years to make him a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame. He had a cumulative 52 WAR over his first 10 seasons, was about to round the corner of 300 home runs, was now having consecutive 100+ RBI seasons, he had a World Series appearance under his belt,  and he was on a largely competitive Padres team. 

Then, like Albert Pujols, Clayton Kershaw and more legends before him, he turned 30. And his numbers sank. Not completely, not the full Pujols in Anaheim drop, but last year was a more pedestrian year for Manny, with a 2.9 WAR [as opposed to his 6.7 in 2022] and a .258 average. This year, despite pacing for another 100+ RBI year, the plate perks aren't as sharp. Machado's hitting .270 with 70 RBIs, but only 18 homers and a 1.4 WAR. It took a while for Manny to come around this year, with the first few months consisting of some less enthusiastic material.

And while I was convinced that last year was a regular ol' down year [a lot like previous sharp turns downward in 2014 and 2017], now that we have two seasons of very okay baseball from Machado I think the worries might be somewhat warranted. He can still hit, and he's still very much a hero figure in San Diego, especially in Tatis's absence, but this isn't full-power Machado, like this team saw from 2020 to 2022. And they've got him for another 9 or so years, until 2033, so either they're gonna get some peak seasons going forward or we've got another Pujols situation on our hands where the Padres spent all that money on someone who really isn't gonna give back at this point in his career. He got the bag, and since then he's been taking it easy. Xander Bogaerts might have a similar pace right now, as he's also taken a sharp turn downward since last May or so.

The good news is that Machado does have a more competitive Padres team to play for this year, as they've been red-hot since the ASG break, and have been quarreling with the D-Backs for a key wild card spot. The Padres have gotten key production not only from regulars like Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar, but newcomers like Matt Waldron, Michael King, Dylan Cease and Jackson Merrill. The depth this team needed last year has shown up, and created a whole new massive core of people just waiting to step up and do well. Not having Yu Darvish and Fernando Tatis has not wounded this team too much, and people like David Peralta and Martin Perez have stepped up and provided excellent cover. The newly-beefed-up bullpen is also a key component of the recent success, as Tanner Scott, Jason Adam and Brian Hoeing have all been pretty unhittable in SD. 

After this series with the Rockies, the Padres have a few consecutive series against competitive teams in a row. If they're still rocketing upward after that, especially as the Dodgers even out, then we can begin talking seriously about this team's postseason appeal. But it's looking really good at the moment. Even if Manny Machado is not 2021-era Manny Machado, he can still hit like Manny Machado, and hopefully that'll be enough.

Coming Tomorrow- I look forward to the discussion towards the end of this decade on whether or not this guy is a Hall of Famer. Cause he's honestly got a really intriguing case.