The Uncle Charlie Factor

 

Hey, I don't know how many people have tracked this, but Charlie Morton has made the World Series three times with three different teams in the last five years. Two of the three he's won. Not a lot of people have that kind of track record. Joc Pederson may have won 2 rings consecutively, but Charlie Morton went from a low-level, low-market starter with no real upsides to a key starter for THREE DIFFERENT WORLD SERIES TEAMS. 

People are gonna talk about career second acts a bit in a year or so when Adrian Beltre is up for Hall of Fame induction, but right now I don't think there's anyone who's as indicative of a second act as Morton. Since rushing to the forefront with the Astros in 2017, Morton is 69-29 with a 3.47 ERA and 1042 strikeouts in 157 games. Before that he was 46-71 with a 4.54 ERA and 630 strikeouts in 162 games. I do love that he's turned things around like this [even if, yes, he could have proved this with the Phillies in 2016 if he'd have just stayed healthy].

And right now, with the Braves, Morton is not only a great mentor figure for a lot of young Braves, including Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder and Spencer Strider, but Morton's fitting right in with them and still a great rotation piece. Morton's got a 4.08 ERA, a 8-5 record and 180 strikeouts, which is still a pretty awesome K total for a guy who's 38 years old. I think the Braves are really gonna bank on this guy for postseason starts, in addition of Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Spencer Strider. If he can still be an excellent October pitcher, the Braves are even luckier.

Also...guys, the Braves have lost 7 games since August 9th. SEVEN. And they've had a ton of wins, building so much momentum that they've lapped the Mets for the division. This is a contrast from last year- in 2021, the Braves squeaked past the Mets and Phillies and won the NL East with only 88 wins. This year the Braves have 87 wins as I write this, and could have won 88 by the time you read it. By design, the Braves have gone beyond their 2021 shocking breakthrough and become a more consistent, more durable team, with so many young pieces making sure they'll stay good for the foreseeable future.

The Braves are succeeding where the Nationals failed. And if the Braves can stay hot, they could go back for another ring.

Coming Tonight: A second generation major leaguer trying to keep his team in 1st.

Who'll Stop the Rain?

 

Well, guess what? Looks like the Yankees can still beat the Rays after all.

I've been worrying about this team for the last month because for a whole the pitching dried up, everybody but Judge stopped hitting and I feared the usual bad luck these Yankees teams run into would be waiting for us to keep us from truly dominating. But the one thing we needed was some cushion against the Rays, and the Yankees went and took two from the Rays, each taking 10 runs from them complete with homers. 

The power numbers are coming from lots of different sources now. Stanton is hitting, Torres had multiple homers recently, Judge is obviously still hot and is still chasing 60. But now Oswaldo Cabrera is hitting, and is adding some extra padding to his insane defensive numbers. And you have the recent callups like Miguel Andujar, Oswald Peraza and Ronald Guzm-AND HE'S GONE. 

The strangest case on this team, especially now that Carpenter's still injured, is Josh Donaldson. I was really worried he'd be a risky contractual add-on, somebody that'd maybe look good on paper but fail to live up to his Blue Jays years. And honestly, Donaldson has made news for the Yankees in a lot of non-savory ways, like starting a feud with Tim Anderson and nearly starting a fight with most of the Rays' bullpen. At the same time, he's managed to not beat up Gerrit Cole, so that's good. Donaldson's having a pretty nice season, with 52 RBIs and 13 homers, in addition to some of his best defensive work in years. Clearly he hasn't been perfect, but I'm glad he's been a productive and interesting piece of this Yankees team. 

The Yankees also have been slowly getting pieces back, and have Nestor Cortes back and surging from the IL. They also are FINALLY getting a look at Ben Rortvedt, who came over along with Donaldson from Minnesota, and is supposed to be another great defensive player to back up Trevvy [when he comes back and Higgy inevitably leaves]. It looks like Rizzo will be back soon, and the goal is for Zach Britton to be back in a bit as well. 

I...I still think this team could go far. I know it has some flaws and can lose multiple games out of nowhere, but...when they're good, they can score 10 runs against the Rays, which they haven't always been able to do. Maybe there's hope. Maybe the Yankees can do well this year. 

Coming Tomorrow- An ageless wonder for a 1st place team. 

Germanated

 

So much for 'we got Kris Bryant so we're gonna compete'.

The Rockies this year were always gonna struggle for 3rd or 4th, but for them to be a 5th place team, cornered by a much younger Diamondbacks team, even WITH Kris Bryant and a re-upped C.J. Cron, has gotta suck. Cause they were putting the work in, they've got people locked up and ready to fight for them, and now without Trevor Story and Jon Gray they've sunk even further.

I just think about German Marquez, who was their reliable ace going into this season, and who always seemed to outdo even the most formidable of Coors Field currents. And how even he's been struggling, has an ERA over 5 and is 8-10. This is the guy that's supposed to hold things down, and in his age-27 season he produces his worst numbers to date. Marquez is locked up for one more year, and I'm assuming he'll put on a tour de force to either boost his free agency case or pitch in a stadium that doesn't bog down his ERA, but this season is very worrying. Marquez used to be this rotation's rock, and now someone like Kyle Freeland, who's good but still a bit unreliable at times, has to take over.

You're also seeing Charlie Blackmon slowly phase himself out in what will possibly be his last season in Denver, and make way for younger pieces like Michael Toglia, who's a lineup piece that could infuriate NL West teams for years to come, and Elehuris Montero, who's just putting some nice contact numbers together himself. Plus, this team has a 35+ year old closer who is one of the most efficient in baseball, and they've got him for two more years. On one hand, this could be a recipe for disaster, as Bard is gonna start pitching his age eventually, but on the other hand, it's security a lot of teams don't have.

I think if Brendan Rodgers, Ryan McMahon and Michael Toglia perhaps stay good, this could be the beginnings of a nice core if the Rockies ever decide to compete again. Only thing is the Dodgers are gonna be good for a while, and the Padres have some stars locked up for a while. Not to mention the D-Backs are still building something great. I'm kinda intrigued to see what their 2023 statement is gonna be.

Coming Tomorrow- A very divisive third baseman for a team that just won't fade into the sunset.

Sears for Fears

 

I just have to laugh at this point. Right now the A's rotation features James Kaprielian, J.P. Sears and Ken Waldichuk. Right now the A's have more Yankee pitchers starting games for them than the Yankees do. 

It's just this league-wide trend of the Yankees getting rid of perfectly good pitching options and then those options doing better in other markets than most of the pitchers on the Yankees. I've already talked about Jordan Montgomery, who shouldn't have even been traded in the first place, and I've hinted at J.P. Sears. Sears was a pretty good depth starter for the Yankees, then the Frankie Montas deal happened and Montas forgot how to keep runs down while Sears took off. So far with the A's, Sears has a 4.30 ERA with the A's through 6 starts. Not perfect, and a few recent starts against decent teams have took off some edge, but he's still a great young asset and he's gonna blossom into a trusted arm in Oakland, while Frankie Montas probably plays for somebody else next year.

Then you have Ken Waldichuk, who I think the A's brought up while the Yankees were still in town, as a sort of 'ha-ha' move. Waldichuk is doing alright through 2 starts, he has a 3.60 ERA and 10 Ks. Nothing too shocking so far, but remember that this is still a feeble A's team that is going up against a lot of teams who are built better. Eventually this team is gonna find the tools necessary to outhit Houston or LA or somebody, but until that happens, good pitchers like Waldichuk and Sears might get lit up a bit.

I think the absolute best news is that Sean Murphy is having a great season, lifting the team in a lot of cases and outdoing a lot of young players for the WAR bonus that exists this year. You're also seeing a lot of young players like Jonah Bride, Shea Langeliers and Cody Thomas begin to inherit the team. Langeliers isn't fully well rounded yet but his power numbers are insane and he already has 13 RBIs. So while a lot hasn't worked for this team, and a lot of decent players have gotten injured, there's at least some reassurance for the next stage.

I'm not sure how many Yankees it'll take to get to the next stage, but I guess we're gonna find out.

Coming Tonight: A Rockies pitcher with ERA issues. So...a Rockies pitcher.

Strange Brubaker

 

For comparison to the post I put out earlier today, the Pirates have 7 guys with a 1.0 WAR or higher. And only one of them isn't healthy. Pirates > Tigers. Somehow.

Let's see, how do I best describe this latest in the line of losing Pirates teams? Uh...only three players have started more than 100 games. Two of them are, like, the marquee guys, Ke'Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds. And the other one's Michael Chavis, who, while hitting .238, still has the second-most home runs on the team with 14, a mark for which he is tied with rookie Jack Suwinski, who is hitting .201. 

And look, let's be clear, the Pirates woes at the plate this year haven't been without a lack of trying. The team was doing really well with Roberto Perez behind the plate, then he got injured and the team has been forced to start either Tyler Heineman or Jason Delay. The team brought up Canaan Smith-Njigba, and he was on the right track, but then he got injured 3 games in and is out til next year. So many interesting prospect options, like Cal Mitchell, Bligh Madris and Diego Castillo, haven't worked in the majors. And even with Oneil Cruz, who's at least fun to watch, they're not getting the complete range of his abilities yet because he's only hitting .226. It's gotta be frustrating.

And then the frustrating part of the pitching is that they've gotten all these pieces to help from other teams, and none of them are. The Marlins gave them Zach Thompson, he's 3-10 with a 5.24 ERA. The Braves gave them Bryse Wilson, he's 2-8 with a 6.11 ERA. The Giants gave them Tyler Beede, he's got a 5.24 ERA and is down from where he was a few years ago. The Cardinals gave them Johan Oviedo, through two starts he has a 7.71 ERA. The Mets gave them Colin Holderman, in 9 games his ERA ballooned to 6.75 and now he's out for a while. And even some of the pitchers who are there, like J.T. Brubaker, who's been a loyal innings eater for the past few seasons, still have a 3-11 record and a 1.428 WHIP. Even the good pitchers like Brubaker and Keller aren't being done many favors.

Eventually this team is going to need to trade Bryan Reynolds, and then things might get worse for a while before they get better. There's so many big pieces being filled by replacement players that I don't see this team competing for a while. And this season hasn't done anything at all to calm worries about the team's direction. They're thankfully not gonna lose 100 games, but they're also not gonna have much to show for themselves, and for Pirates fans, that's not gonna sit well at all.

Coming Tomorrow- Another former Yankee pitcher who's doing way better away from the team that a lot of current Yankee starters. 

Bad Time to be a Manning

 

The NFL season starts this week. And ESPN is already prepping its Monday night showcase of having multiple Manning brothers commentating the game while eating food or lying down or something fun. And then Peyton and Cooper are still hosting their game show on NBC. And I assume Archie is probably doing something lucrative as well. It's generally a good time to be named Manning.

...Except if you're Matt Manning, and you're stuck pitching in Detroit with little to no help.

The Tigers, even with all the contracts, have been notoriously bad. Only three players have a WAR higher than 1, and while one of them is, in fact, Javier Baez, one of the other two, Tarik Skubal, is injured, and the other one is Erik Haase, who was supposed to be just a backup piece all year. Everybody else, including all the rookies, and especially all of the starters, have been underperforming. You have Riley Greene, Jeimer Candelario, Spencer Torkelson and Jonathan Schoop on this team and none of them are really exciting people. Greene is getting there, and could be a standout next year, but he's bogged down with the mediocrity of this team.

And then you have Manning, who was injured for most of the year, coming back to Tarik Skubal gone, Peralta and Pineda DFA'd, DREW HUTCHISON being relied upon for innings, and people like Tyler Alexander having to start games. The good news is Eduardo Rodriguez is finally back, and he returned in a way that I didn't even know he was back until JUST NOW, but even he's not at peak Eddie form right now. Manning, to his credit, has a 3.86 ERA and 35 Ks in 9 starts, but just one young starter alone isn't enough. Joey Wentz is up and starting and he's not doing too memorably either. And you can go 'oh, if we get Mize, Skubal, Manning, Brieske and Rodriguez all healthy next year it'll be great' but then something else will go wrong. 

Here's how I sum up this team. Ryan Kreidler has been up for 7 games and he's already ninth in WAR on this team. Being up for 7 games, playing great defense and hitting .250 makes you more valuable to the team than Tucker Barnhart, Eduardo Rodriguez or Jonathan Schoop. 

I wanna believe it'll be better next season but I thought this season would be an improvement. And now that Detroit has Lions fever, another losing Tigers season is gonna be even more heartbreaking. Hopefully this team can do something, or else they're gonna be irrelevant for a while longer.

Coming Tonight [?]: A starter just trying to get innings in for a very weak team.

Lane Duck

 

Hey, uh, the Nats have won 4 of their last 6. Can someone say 'surprise wild card favorite'?

Lol, no, the Nationals clearly have nothing left to prove and won't be making the playoffs, and they seem to be alright with this. They've lost the war, they're letting the rookies, like Alex Call and Cade Cavalli, come up and take the spotlight for a bit as the veterans sort of shrug and do their thing, and their franchise favorite going into the season is not only in San Diego, but he might be injured. 

So, now that they're out of the race, it's easier for them to shock people, especially other teams. The Nats, just this week, have taken two games from the Mets and two games from the Cardinals. On one hand, yes it's just two games, but this happening to THESE TEAMS NOW is pretty big for a number of reasons. For one thing, losing 2 games put the Mets in line with the Braves, and now they're struggling to maintain first place as the playoff race thickens. And the Cardinals losing a few games, even as the Mets now wallop the Pirates, makes them a lock for the three seed, meaning they'll have to play someone in the first round of the playoffs [and right now it is looking like it will be the Padres but I know my luck if my Phils want to completely address the 2011 drought]. 

But the other reason it's pretty important that these two teams are being batted down by the Nats is that in years past, the Mets and Cardinals have acted as the executioners of September. The Mets, as I've often written about, have consistently acted as the spoiler in years they don't make the playoffs, being good enough to smack potential competitive teams out of the conversation but not good enough to compete. The Cardinals will often wait until September to start acting like a playoff team, and this momentum often propels them far into the postseason. Things have shifted so that these teams can now be the alphas in the league...AND, a completely inconsequential Nats team can act as a spoiler for them a little.

And the Nats are doing all this with a lot of small pieces. Lane Thomas, who they got from the Cardinals in the Jon Lester deal, has 15 homers and 46 RBIs. Ildemaro Vargas, a former D-Backs prospect, is batting .295 with 13 RBIs in 30 games. C.J. Abrams, who they got from San Diego in the Soto deal, is already piling up the contact hits, and has 17 hits in 21 games, including some crucial ones in this Cardinals series. And Alex Call came alive in Thursday's game, coming a triple short of a cycle and being responsible for 5 of the Nats' 11 runs. So these pieces are coming together, they're just...very much still pieces.

The Nats need a few years to rebuild, and hopefully a lot of these guys will be part of it. It is nice to see them stifle some competitors, though. So I'm fine with them doing that, especially if it levels the Cardinals a bit before the playoffs.

Coming Tonight: One of three young pitchers primed to succeed for Detroit this year...and the only one who is currently still healthy.