Find Grant

[First of all, to the MLB intern who did a Game Changer tribute post on twitter, including a 'Count the Ben Rice' and 'Find Grant Holmes', may you be rewarded for your niche interests. Game Changer, for those of you who aren't aware...oh god that's all of you, and it's a lot to explain. Consult your nearest weird nephew I guess. But it's a good thing. I swear.]

Grant Holmes becoming a household-ish name is not something I'd have predicted. I pulled a card of him out of 2015 Pro Debut, this schtarker of a Dodgers minor leaguer with a massive afro looking larger than anyone else on the field. And I'm going 'this is what counts for a Dodgers prospect these days? Ookay.' And of all the prospects from that set that didn't make the majors, he was at least one of the more notable ones. You don't forget a Grant Holmes. I genuinely thought he was Australian. Nah, just large. But he stuck around the minors for a decade, becoming a fixture of the A's double-A and triple-A teams, then right as he was getting the hang of things the pandemic happened, as did some strain concerns. He was cut in mid-2022, picked up by the Braves and kept as a minor league piece, eventually making the majors, at last, in 2024 at age 28. And from there it only got better, as Holmes' availability became his saving grace, as his low-velocity, leverage-friendly stuff kept him from missing much time, and gave him a fair amount of playing time compared to the other, more injury-prone Braves starters.

Holmes is now 30, and he's having his fullest season to date, with a 3.70 ERA, 78 Ks and a 6-4 record in 18 starts. It's not flashy [the Braves have Chris Sale for that] but it is efficient. He's gotten into some trouble fairly recently, especially the later he goes in games, but he's enough of a rock that the Braves don't have to worry too greatly. It's very odd that guys like Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes and Martin Perez have provided more stability to this rotation than Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider and Huston Waldrep. That's how good the Braves are this year, they did well with a rotation of Chris Sale and some scrubs essentially. And now things are kind of turning around and it's possible that they're gonna need a fuller, younger rotation to keep the Phillies and Marlins away.

Thankfully this team still has Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris playing beautifully, and Ronald Acuna should be back fairly soon. The team also seems to have found their everyday shortstop, as Jim Jarvis, the guy they got from the Tigers last year for Rafael Montero, is batting .292 in 15 games and already is becoming a fan favorite. Austin Riley finally seems to be heating up, Mike Yastrzemski is providing great insurance as a depth outfielder, and the bullpen currently holds three of the most dangerous relievers in the game right now. It's a well-rounded team that's gotten over its June swoon and is still staying ahead of the Phils [who, luckily for the Braves, had to play the defending champions this week]. 

It's a team that can utilize Grant Holmes prominently and it's still a good team. I kinda love that.

Coming Tomorrow- He was supposed to be the ace of his current rotation. That hasn't really happened, but he's still a pretty strong arm on there.

Getting his Due-bon

 

Here is a list of some people that Mauricio Dubon has been traded for before becoming an actual starting infielder, in his age-32 season, after 8 years in the bigs.

• Tyler Thornburg, a Brewers relief asset who was traded immediately before requiring surgery and barely playing any healthy games for the team, the Sox, he was traded to.
• Drew Pomeranz, who actually benefitted from a trade to Milwaukee that year.
• Michael Papierski, a guy who no one had thought of before or since.
• Nick Allen, the major league baseball equivalent of how Danny DeVito described himself in Twins ["you're telling me that I'm the leftover crap???"]

It took a WHILE for Mauricio Dubon to find a fit. It somehow didn't happen with the Giants, because right as he was about to take 2nd in 2020, Donovan Solano had an incredible breakout year. He tried to break in with the Astros, but most of the time he was stuck behind Jose Altuve or Jeremy Pena, resorting to being a backup. With Houston he developed such a fan following, even as a utility man, that the fans were upset when the team traded him. Luckily, things worked themselves out, Ha-Seong Kim got injured, and the stage was set for Dubon to get his just desserts.

Dubon as the Braves' starting shortstop has worked extremely well. He's been great on defense, AND he's got 44 RBIs and 8 homers. Offense was never the main emphasis with Dubon, but on a team like this you can't blame him for trying to blend in. Him and Ozzie Albies make an impeccable double play combo, and there's even a chance he squeezes onto the ASG roster. I'm really happy he's become a nice part of this team, and joined so many guys [Harris, Albies, Baldwin, Olson I guess] who are time-tested and proven in Atlanta. This team can still take newcomers to the fold. It seems to have worked with Dominic Smith as well.

Ultimately, though the Braves are heading into July a little worse for wear than expected. They went 10-14 this month, and the losses of Ronald Acuna, Robert Suarez and Spencer Strider might have something to do with it. They got Baldwin back mid-month, but he's gone insanely cold, and has only started hitting again fairly recently. Elder, Holmes and Perez have skidded a little in the last month, as...honestly expected. The team is still good, and still has the pieces to compete, but the Phillies just keep creeping up, and it may come to a boil in the next month if the Braves don't regain momentum.

I do have some hope for this Braves team. Until June, they had so much going for them, and when good they're better than anybody, even the Dodgers. They could get back there if they wanted, and I hope they do.

Coming Tonight: The top closer in baseball is a hard-throwing specialist from Cleveland, and somehow it's a different one than usual. 

The Same Ozz it Was

 

There's a lot thrown around these days about which teams and players certain deities prefer over others, and I just want to say that the Braves losing 8-1 to the Mets, then turning around, regaining Drake Baldwin and getting to play the San Francisco Giants right on the heels of their 'half the pitching staff think standing up to Pride Night is akin to casting out Satan' run...that's cosmic retribution. You have the story of good men getting back up after a stunning loss and going to take down the true evil, the evil of intolerance, and that's something right out of a Sunday reading, isn't it? 

[I don't like saying stuff like this on the blog, but Landen Roupp and company are going right on my boycott list, along with the Rays who sat out Pride Night years ago and Blake Treinen. I can't believe I'm saying this, but these guys should be more like Josh Hader.]

Anyway, the Braves. Just when you think you've figured them out you get better. Alright, Strider's hurt, they're getting to Elder, well...alright, Hurston Waldrep's back this week probably, Martin Perez is surprisingly awesome, and they still have to face Chris Sale. There's a 35 and a 37 year old on this team who can throw better than most of the 28-year-olds the Giants have. And plus, here's Drake Baldwin again, continuing his plate vendetta from the first month and a half of the season.

The Braves are this good because they've laid the groundwork by placing all these people who can play well around their team, and they all are! They brought Matt Olson in to be a positive successor to Freddie Freeman, and he's been somehow better in points, with 20 homers and 51 RBIs already. Ozzie Albies has struggled the last couple years but he's back in full force now, hitting .279 with 10 homers and 37 RBIs, some of his most pivotal offense work in a while. Michael Harris II's also a .300 hitter now, he's got 14 homers and 41 RBIs, numbers he's only hinted at before. Mauricio Dubon and Dominic Smith have become excellent everyday players after being mostly bench guys for years. Even Jorge Mateo's having a comeback year as a bench piece, with 7 steals already. Losing Acuna is a rough development, but this team's been through that before. And gaining back Baldwin now is a really good thing. Because with this team, Baldwin was harder to replace than Acuna. A few weeks without Ronnie and they can throw Eli White back there, or Mateo even, and they'll be fine. A month or so without Drake and they were STRUGGLING. Sandy Leon had to be the main guy. Austin Wynns got thrown in there. It'd have been nice if Sean Murphy was around but I guess he's not that guy anymore. 

Even without Acuna, the Braves' offense remains one of the best in baseball, and so many of these guys can catch you off guard and do something incredible. And on top of that the bullpen's damn near untouchable and Sale's having another Cy Young caliber season. Even after a rough weekend, the Braves are still the best in the biz, and with Baldwin back they're even better. Cannot be disputed. 

Coming Tomorrow- The Rays gave up on him, he made them regret it in a different market. As is becoming the norm these days..

Sale On

 

Since joining the NL for the first time in 2024, Chris Sale has yet to finish a season with an ERA higher than 2.60. His Cy Young season in '24 had a 2.38 ERA. Through 11 2026 games, he has a 2.01 ERA. All of this on what the Red Sox assumed was borrowed time.

Not that it's been enjoyable as of late, but if you wanted to check how the returns for Sale are doing in Boston right now, well...Vaughn Grissom's not even in Boston. He's currently a utility guy in Anaheim. Meaning once again, the Red Sox traded a big piece for prospects that couldn't even stick around long enough to help them do anything. No wonder the fans want John Henry to sell. 

Though we all thought the Jack McDowell comparisons would do him in, Chris Sale has become one of the most reliable pitchers of the 'K-or-nothing' era of baseball. This year, Sale's on track to reach 2700 career strikeouts, and his career ERA still sits below 3. He's also on pace to crack 60 career WAR, and he recently notched his 150th career win. Obviously nobody can do what Nolan Ryan did and overthrow for 25 years anymore, but Sale has maintained so much success just by consistently whizzing past people. So far he has 80 Ks this year, and on a Braves team where the next-nearest strikeout artist is trying to stay healthy and the other two everyday guys are leverage/control guys who don't throw hard, it's positively refreshing. The 2025 Braves went in banking on the high-speed guy like Sale, and then Schwellenbach and Lopez got hurt, Sale missed a third of the season and it was up to Holmes and Elder to keep the lights on. Now that the approach has been altered and it's less geared around the overthrowing, Sale can just do what he does and there's plenty of fallbacks.

The failsafes are one of the reasons the Braves are still a league superpower. Last year they got cut with their pants down because they were unprepared for the majority of the pitching staff getting hurt. Now they have swing options. J.R. Ritchie gave it a go, and while it didn't work, he was able to swing out when Strider came back. Martin Perez went from an in-camp maybe to one of the most unexpected rotation weapons in Atlanta, with a 2.70 ERA and 40 Ks in 11 games, proving he truly is the Venezuelan counterpart to Charlie Morton. Mauricio Dubon was the replacement for Ha-Seong Kim at short, and Dubon's been so good even after Kim's return that the position continues to be his. The one thing they couldn't really predict was losing both Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy, meaning Chadwick Tromp is now the starting catching option for the Braves, and Sandy Leon is closing in on him. If this wasn't a really good Braves team with so many other great starring performances, it'd be worrying. But Baldwin'll be back soon, and it's not breaking the team.

There's so much depth to this team, and so many successful seasons, that another star performance from Chris Sale just feels like the cherry on top. I hope they keep at it, as they really could chase the Dodgers for the league championship this year.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who was traded for Tommy Edman, who's honestly doing a much better job than he would have, and is still looking to win the trade with his new, rebuilding team.

Everyday People

 

I remember back when it was news that Freddy Galvis hadn't missed a game from 2016 to mid-2019, and that was the extent of the streak. Remember Freddy Galvis? Good couple years back there, decent Phils infielder. Seems kinda silly now that we've got Matt Olson, who hasn't missed a game since 2021. Since Olson got to Atlanta he's not missed a game. Meaning after losing their 1st baseman since 2011, the Braves then got a first baseman...who literally plays everyday. And does so while hitting 40 or so homers.

This is the beauty of these Braves teams. It's the right kind of layering of talent, in that it's not egregious, it's not overspending the rest of the league. It's calling up great players and extending them, then signing great free agents in their prime, and picking the right guys to perpetuate the cycle. People have gotten mad about this team letting some key pieces go [Freeman, Fried, Swanson, William Contreras], but considering all the great players they've retained it's hard to be completely mad. They signed Olson early and since then he's been absolutely wonderful. Right now he's got a 1.019 OPS, a league leading 37 RBIs, 14 homers and a .294 average. He's on track for another terrific season, and could notch yet another 25+ homer year [he's already accumulated seven of those]. Recently Olson hit his 300th career homer, and at only 32 he's put together some underrated numbers, much like his former Oakland battery mate Matt Chapman. The Braves have some truly excellent players, and Olson, out of all of them, might be the one they're luckiest to have.

Especially considering that Ronald Acuna Jr. is once again injured. The good news is that Ronnie is not the 'magic hat' guy he seemed to be last year, as there's enough roster depth to stay ahead of every else. Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Matt Olson still make this an elite lineup, and getting Ha-Seong Kim back certainly helps, despite how well Mauricio Dubon has done in his stead. Baldwin continues to be one of the best pure power hitters in the game, already at 10 homers and 37 RBIs. Dom Smith has been a surprisingly powerful DH bat, hitting .363 with 18 RBIs and 4 homers. I did not expect this guy to positively replace Ozuna but I guess being low-budget occasionally pays off. 

Also paying off is the stagnated, unconventional rotation tactic. People like Martin Perez, Reynaldo Lopez and J.R. Ritchie have swung in and out as needed, and activating key pieces has not obstructed the rhythm of the unit. Spencer Strider's looking decent 2 starts later, he's only allowed 3 runs and struck out 14. Perez has been the surprise, still in excellent condition at 34 and so capable in middle relief that he's back to starting. Meanwhile, Elder, Sale and Holmes have been strong at the top but you knew that. Sale's got 56 Ks by throwing smoke, Elder's got 53 Ks from pitch selection. Both tactics are working.

A lot's going right for the Braves right now. The other 4 NL East teams all struggling has helped as well, but so much has clicked, and though there's still time for things to falter, I've got a really good vibe about how this team's flowing. And having [to date] FOUR everyday guys certainly helps.

Coming Tomorrow- The future of his team has shifted, and he's got to do what he can to keep things on track. Unfortunately, all he can do right now is power hit adequately. 

Elder Buried

 

I dunno if I'm ever gonna be able to figure out Bryce Elder. Cause either he's a dominant, forceful fly-ball pitcher with a low K rating, or he can't keep runs down to save his life. There's something very classic about Elder, he just stays up there and stays in long enough to get the job done, no real 100mph stuff. Sometimes that results in an ASG appearance and a low ERA, and sometimes that results in everybody killing him at the plate and nobody taking him seriously. I suppose it's connected to how viable the Braves' offense is, cause Elder was great when the Braves were good, and last year when the Braves struggled he was subpar. 

So anyway, the Braves are good again and Bryce Elder has a 0.77 ERA through 4 starts. I dunno if it's gonna make sense, I just know that it's a good thing.

The Braves' rotation has this 'handle with care' quality to it, because it hinges on four guys who throw hard and get injured more often than not. If Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep didn't overthrow and run the risk of missing time, they'd be able to accomplish more and potentially win more titles. But this is the life they've chosen. So the Braves now have to stack the pitching staff with supplanting options that don't overthrow. Reynaldo Lopez is one of them, and after a lost 2025 he's back in full force, with a 2.18 ERA in 4 starts. Grant Holmes has been very reliable, and durable, in a swing role, and so far while his ERA is closer to 4 than he'd like, he's still a valid innings eater. Even 35-year-old Martin Perez has joined in on the fun, with 4 games of pure dominance and a 2.21 ERA despite only 10 strikeouts. 

If the team has the leverage and the pitcher can stay on, control guys like Elder and Holmes can still be valuable pieces. It's actually a very efficient strategy, one that I'm really interested to see morph once some more starting options return. Strider and Waldrep should be back soon, and they're gonna want to get Didier Fuentes more starts at some point [unless they mean to dangle him for an upgrade]. 

That level of pitching depth combined with a ferocious lineup has made the Braves a definite standout so far. Nobody wants to go up against a team where Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Dominic Smith are not only hitting but surging. Dominic Smith has gone from a handy fill-in in SF to a genuine DH standout, with 4 homers and 16 RBIs in 17 games. Baldwin's a power hitter who's also hitting .304 right now, he's everything you want. Mauricio Dubon might just be the guy going forward at short, with apologies to Ha-Seong Kim. Only guy that isn't really hitting is Yaz, but it's early.

Now that the Braves have sufficiently embarrassed the Phillies, they now get to play Washington for four games and arrive home in time for the Phillies to have hopefully remembered how to play baseball. It's looking extremely good for the start of the Walt Weiss regime in Atlanta, and I reckon it's about to get even better. Cause Acuña's barely even woken up yet.

Coming Tomorrow- He was drafted 1st overall, and was thought to be the first piece of a legendary youth movement. It didn't work out 100% as planned, but he's still a very important piece of their next act.

Nothing Was The Same

 

To be perfectly honest, the Braves' first two weeks would have been a success if they'd gotten through without their top 4 bursting into flames, but starting 6-4 given everyone that's already been injured is a very good sign. They're without Schwellenbach, Strider and Waldrep, and Sean Murphy and Ha-Seong Kim, for a bit, and they have to proceed with a less confident rotation and a slightly compromised defensive schematic. It's a good thing they're the Atlanta Braves, though.

First of all, I owe Drake Baldwin an apology. Last year I was not convinced he would be in any way a non-negotiable factor for the league, as his rookie campaign was merely above-average to me rather than game-changing. I thought it was nonsensical for the Braves to go ahead with a new catcher considering that they already had Sean Murphy, and I simply thought Cade Horton was a more impactful addition to a roster. However, Cade Horton's missing time with some arm issues and Drake Baldwin is one of the most explosive hitters in the game right now. So at the moment it's looking like I was misinformed. Baldwin is currently hitting .300 with 4 homers and 12 RBIs, both league leading, and is far and away leading the Braves right now, in the stead of both Ronald Acuna and Austin Riley, who haven't really started hitting yet. Even factoring in some of the usual suspects, like Matt Olson, and Michael Harris, Baldwin's accomplished the most for this offense so far.

But the organization's emphasis on stocking the deck has made for some excellent replacement-level decisions that are already benefitting the team. Mauricio Dubon was dealt by the Astros for reasons that are still somewhat hazy, but Kim's injury means he gets to start at shortstop everyday, and he's done an excellent job of that, while continuing his contact excellence from Houston. Dominic Smith was brought in as a potential bench option but has fielded the majority of DH starts, and has 2 home runs and a walk-off under his belt. Even Jorge Mateo is coming to life as a bench bat. This team is well-built enough to withstand lapses, which very much counters the excuse from 2025.

Now, the pitching is still sort of problematic, because without those young arms the back end of the rotation are guys like Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes and Martin Perez. But even they're not too bad. Elder's yet to allow an earned run this year, and has kept balls mostly in play. Perhaps his issues of the last two years are finally behind him? Holmes is also still pretty good, albeit not especially flashy. I think the goal is to eventually work Didier Fuentes up to starting, and he was decent in a long relief outing but evidently not ready yet. They at least have Chris Sale and Reynaldo Perez in excellent shape. Very much supports the theory that after pitching a full season of grade A work, most starters should likely take the following season off. 

The 'pen looks good, the depth is there, the production is there. There's a few guys in the lineup who aren't all the way back yet, but it's early. As it stands right now, the Braves are looking better than they have in a couple years, and may be a factor in the NL East again. Let's just see if they can keep it going.

Coming Tonight: When your #9 hitter is doing the brunt of the work, something needs to be reassessed. 

The Last Few Burning Questions of Spring

 

The last few exhibition games are being played out tonight, to get the last few trials in before the real ones. The final cuts are currently being made, call-ups are being announced, and we're finally ready to get the season moving before there's no season to play. It's the most exciting moment of a season, because it's the last moment where there's still potential energy, before the sobering reality hits. And then the colors mute, the cold returns, and the season runs ahead. 

I've still got a couple more customs from Spring Training to dole out, and so from there, let's examine some of the last few lingering concerns and loose threads that might be at play during the 2026 season.

-Does Ranger Suarez mean the Red Sox' rotation is for real? On paper, the combination of Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Brayan Bello and Connelly Early looks good, but with the exception of Early, all of these guys have shown downsides in recent history. Gray's coming off a down year, Suarez struggled to come back fully after the hand injury, Bello's ERA stayed plainly around 4.50 for a while, and Crochet was in injury hell for a while. How likely will it be that everything clicks at once? Luckily, Johan Oviedo, Payton Tolle and Kutter Crawford are around in case something goes wrong.

-Will Kevin McGonigle succeed where other Tigers infield prospects haven't? Trey Sweeney and Jace Jung, two infield prospects that looked like hits, both failed to make the team out of camp. Colt Keith still has second for now, and Zach McKinstry is mostly an interloper. The future is paved for McGonigle and Clark, but will they take advantage of the moment or end up like Jung, Sweeney, Ryan Kreidler and more?

-Is the world ready for a decidedly non-competitive Cardinals team? Despite the complete lack of star power, the entirely decimated pitching staff, and the reliance on guys like Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera to provide some form of normalcy, many pundits are still predicting the Cardinals will finish with more wins than the Pirates. Even with substantial evidence that Oli Marmol is well past his expiry date. It's not like the Patriots where it can just suddenly happen overnight. J.J. Wetherholt is likely very good at baseball, but is he gonna be enough to get anyone to care about this team? 

-Similarly, will THIS team be the Angels team that brings non-Ohtani relevance back to Anaheim? A lot of the pieces that worked separately in 2025 are still intact. Trout will be healthy and ready to go, Neto's onto another stage of his peak, Adell can finally power-hit in the majors, now Grayson Rodriguez has a place to pitch, Logan O'Hoppe looks to have a strong year, Soler's healthy. If all goes according to plan, the Angels could surprise some people. But in a division with the Mariners, A's and Astros, will they be able to get anything done?

-Has the injury bug already doomed the Braves before the year can even get going? Yesterday Spencer Strider was announced as an injured piece. The team already knew they'd be without Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, Ha-Seong Kim and Joey Wentz for a while. This team also has Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Austin Riley, Mike Yastrzemski and Martin Perez on it. And Ronald Acuna is back, but who knows if he'll be at full capacity this year. Even if there's more reinforcements this year with that possibility in mind, will they have enough to keep them in the mix all year, or will they be running on fumes by August once again?

Will the White Sox finally lap the Twins in a battle for least inept team in the AL Central? Believe me, the White Sox have had a nice head start and had some truly terrible seasons, but the Pohlads completely have up and the Twins now consist of Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan and a bag of chips. Even with strong second-year infielder Luke Keaschall gearing up for a more dominant full season, the Twins don't have much at all this year. Pablo Lopez is hurt, none of the young core has developed, Royce Lewis still spends 2 months on the IL every year. Do the Twins have enough accumulated to outdo the White Sox's smarty-built younger squad?

-Are the Rockies looking at another year firmly on the bottom? I don't really see any evidence that suggests otherwise. Some of these rookies look decent, Kyle Karros and Chase Dollander and Zac Veen, plus the possibility of Charlie Condon and Roc Riggio sometime soon. But man, there really is nothing to this team, even still. And they have to play a ton of games against the Dodgers and Padres. Will there be anything at all that will be seen as an improvement by year's end?

-How off-kilter is the Nationals rotation going to be? In years' past it's been pretty straightforward, the young core of MacKenzie Gore, Mitch Parker, Jake Irvin and D.J. Herz, plus assistance from Trevor Williams. Now it's taken a turn. Josiah Gray was set to make his comeback after 2 years of injuries, but apparently that's not happening for a while. So what's left? Is Cade Cavalli ace material? Does Miles Mikolas have anything left? Did the other 29 teams pass on Zack Littell for any specific reason? Is Foster Griffin a viable MLB option? And is there any place for Cole Irvin, and eventually Herz and Parker, on this shifting team?

-What are the Rays getting at now? At last they get a working core, with Caminero, Aranda and Lowe all propelling them forward, and then Lowe, Mangum, Fairbanks, Josh Lowe and Baz all end up elsewhere. Is it possible that the Rays were closer to competing before than they are now? Even with Chandler Simpson, Carson Williams and Ben Williamson looking to make strides this year, the holes are apparent. If the Rays actually wanted to build a team without needing to save money, they definitely had the opportunity to. Will this season, and an impending lockout, give the Rays any incentive whatsoever to attempt to build a perennial competitor?

Just food for thought, I suppose. Tomorrow night we kick this whole thing off.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Braves

 

I remember watching a Spring Training game at the Braves' complex way back in March. And I think about the vibes I got from that game, and how excited all the Braves fans were for this season. There was an interview with newly-acquired Jurickson Profar, who was happy to be out of San Diego and was ready to compete some more, there was all this talk about the team's depth and versatility. It was looking like they'd be a favorite to overtake the Phillies and battle the Mets for the top.

That's...not exactly what happened. Which makes it all the more astonishing that it all looked so good heading into the year.

Three hitters made more than 150 games, and of the three, only one of them had a WAR higher than 3. No pitchers made all 32 starts, and the one with the most innings still had a 5.30 ERA. The team's two Cy Young candidates in June were both injured by August. Acuna was once again the magic hat. The guy who won Rookie of the Year is the kind of player that makes their highest-paid-catcher-in-baseball completely obsolete. And by the time the team actually got things going, it was September, and they were already out of contention. Everything that could go wrong 100% did this year, resulting in a 4th place finish below .500, and the end of the Brian Snitker era in Atlanta. The Braves will no doubt be back next year, with former shortstop Walt Weiss taking up the mantle of manager, and many injured players set to return at peak capacity. But this was a brutal blow to a team that had consistently one of the best in the game since 2019. 

Profar is the best summation of what went wrong. He came off his best season to date, an All-Star year with San Diego, and was primed to play a similar role with this Braves team. Then right as the season began, Profar tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs, putting his entire 2024 comeback into a different light, and taking him out for the majority of the season. In his place, the Braves had to throw people like Alex Verdugo, Bryan de la Cruz and Stuart Fairchild into left, which did not work at all. Profar eventually returned to play 80 games this year, and hit .245 with 14 homers and 43 RBIs, which was decent, but not quite what was advertised.

2026 Prediction: Profar becomes Robinson Cano in New York- will be fine, but every good stretch will come with that question mark. Eventually it'll become too much for the Braves to bear, but perhaps not until 2027.

Sean Murphy began the year as the Braves' total catching option, after Travis d'Arnaud left in free agency, and ended the year...as Travis d'Arnaud, an overpaid burden blocking a younger and better catcher. Murphy was actually pretty good this year, with 16 homers and 45 RBIs in 94 games, plus some excellent defense, but he's a .199 hitter now. And when you've got Drake Baldwin, who's better at contact work even at the expense of the defense, you're gonna stand out in the wrong ways. 

2026 Prediction: Is traded pre-season. Does decently but doesn't match 2023. 

With Sale and Schwellenbach missing time, Strider coming in late, Lopez missing the whole season and Holmes bowing out late, Bryce Elder was the Braves' longest-standing starter, despite multiple attempts to demote him or move him to the bullpen. All in all, Elder's season wasn't great, as he posted a 5.30 ERA, and an 8-11 record, but as a rare Braves starter to stay healthy all year, Elder was in high demand all season and needed to be in every fifth day, due to lack of other options for the most part. 

2026 Prediction: Either his arm gives out again or he actually figures his shit out and has a bounce-back full season.

With all the vacancies and injuries, this also meant there was a serious demand for 10-year minor league veteran Grant Holmes, who'd been waiting for this moment for a while. Holmes had some MLB appearances last season, but as a swingman. Now there were rotation spots open, and Holmes responded with one of the best Braves pitching seasons of the year. The 29-year-old had a 3.99 ERA with 123 Ks, despite a 4-9 record due to the diluted lineup. Ultimately he'd also join the field of several injured Braves starters in August.

2026 Prediction: Once he's back, he may not have much of a chance to start, so back to long relief and swing roles.

The lack of starting options also meant it was time for oft-injured prospect A.J. Smith-Shawver to try again for his case at a permanent spot. In 9 starts he went 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 42 Ks, then, once again, the injuries struck.

2026 Prediction: He does this again and the Braves are gonna get tired of it. If he gets hurt again he's getting cut.

As good as Raisel Iglesias can be in the ninth, sometimes he has a season or two where things kinda unravel and he needs to be humbled a bit, and that was 2025 for the veteran closer. Despite 29 saves and 73 Ks, his 3.21 ERA was higher than usual, and accounted for a lot of blown opportunities. After how comparably untouchable he's been since coming to Atlanta, it was a wake-up call for all involved parties. Thankfully it didn't seem to scare the Braves too much, as Iglesias is back for 2026.

2026 Prediction: Now that that's out of his system, 30+ saves and a 2 ERA again.

Similarly, since coming over from Colorado, Pierce Johnson has become one of the Braves' most reliable relief pieces period. And since Joe Jimenez and A.J. Minter were not in the picture this year, he got even more responsibility placed upon him, which I think he did well with. Johnson, in 59 innings, had a 3.05 ERA, a 1.1 WAR [his highest since 2021], and 59 Ks. 

2026 Prediction: A slight downturn in a mid-level market [Reds? D-Backs? Rangers?]. [Update 1/11/26: and on my first guess as well!]

I think the Braves fans had to be pretty disappointed when there'd been all this pomp and circumstance over a game at Bristol Motor Speedway, which was already a logistical and managerial disaster, and they don't even get the matchup they were promised. Cause they went in with the idea that it'd be Chase Burns vs. Spencer Strider, which sounds really cool, and then it rains halfway through the first inning, so they have to pick it up the following day, without either starter, and it becomes Brent Suter vs. Hurston Waldrep. That's not as cool. Waldrep had been called up as a swing option, with both Carlos Carrasco and Erick Fedde as rotation options, and was handed the ball after Austin Cox couldn't cut it. But Waldrep, the 23-year-old who tried to spin a similar 2024 opportunity into a run only to get hurt quickly into it, turned this into a pitch for long-term supremacy, and got the win, only allowing 3 hits and an earned run, and striking out 4. Waldrep would be one of the best pitchers of the Braves' second half, going 6-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 55 Ks in 10 starts. 

2026 Prediction: Opening Day rotation, stays in there all year. Hopefully the injury bug doesn't hit, cause I think they've got something here.

Nacho Alvarez Jr. was supposed to factor into 2025 as a backup infielder and utility guy, but then he got hurt pre-season and Nick Allen played that role anyhow. But, of course, Austin Riley gets hurt midyear, and once Alvarez got healthy he got third for a while. In 58 games he only hit .234 with 15 RBIs, but his defense was a big part of the Braves' late-season swell.

2026 Prediction: More prominent backup work, though he will have to contend with Mauricio Dubon on that bench.

As discussed, the Braves worked overtime after the trade deadline to add anyone they could who was DFA'd, needing all the help they could get, and managed to snag pieces like Erick Fedde, Joey Wentz, Brett Wisely, Jake Fraley, Alexis Diaz and Dane Dunning. The cleverest one was convincing the Rays to give up Ha-Seong Kim, who'd been injured all year and wasn't helping once he got healthy. Once Kim got to the Braves, he dominated, hitting .253 in 24 games with 3 homers and 12 RBIs, plus some excellent defense. This did a lot to up Kim's free agency case for this year.

2026 Prediction: Three-year deal with a competitor, has his best season to date and gets an ASG nod.

The other cool move the Braves made after the deadline was bringing back Charlie Morton to round out his career. Morton had a very rocky season, going from punchline to contender with the O's and then the opposite with the Tigers, but the Braves knew he needed to end his career with dignity, so they brought him back in late September. The 41-year-old made one last start, and in an inning an a third, gave up 2 hits but no runs, and notched his last strikeout. Then exited to a standing o in the place he'd come up nearly 2 decades ago. That's what everybody wants, I think.

Coming Tomorrow- The Brewers were closer than ever to a World Series, and they arguably have a team that can get them back. 

Rookies of the Year: Sentimental Value

 

Just because I called both of these doesn't mean that I agree with them.

Of any of these awards, the Rookie of the Year award is the most likely to vex me, because the MLB has managed to make so many rules to classify what makes a 'great rookie', which they don't always follow. Like, a rookie can debut midway through the year and not get a Topps rookie card until the following year yet still qualify for the award, yet if they appear in games in one season that isn't full and make a definitive impact while they're there, they can't qualify. Luis Gil and Randy Arozarena did not deserve Rookie of the Year awards because they weren't rookies. Luckily, both Nick Kurtz and Drake Baldwin made the cutoff for Topps Update, and played almost the entire season in the majors, so there's no loopholes or anything there.

It really comes down to nuance. Can you definitively say that this player made the most impact of any first-year player in the league? One of these, I say absolutely. The other is more complicated. 

Nick Kurtz is the one I agree with, because for a month and a half he was one of the single best hitters in baseball, and finished the year with a 1.002 OPS. Kurtz hit 36 home runs and 86 RBIs in 117 games, the majority of those homers coming in an unbelievable midyear stretch. Said stretch also included an absolutely wild four-homer game against the Astros. The A's are a rebuilding team putting down a ton of great young players they can build on, and Kurtz is absolutely one of them. It's even to the point where Kurtz lapped Jacob Wilson, an early-season ROY candidate who started the All-Star game for the AL but struggled after getting hurt in said game. Wilson and Kurtz were both important to the A's season, but Kurtz is the next step for the A's towards competing again, and you can see it already. So him I completely agree with. That's absolutely the Rookie of the Year in the AL.

It's Drake Baldwin that is confusing me. Because I don't know what he really represents in regards to shifting the story of the season.

Let's look at Drake Baldwin in context of the 2025 Atlanta Braves. Baldwin is the 3rd-best Brave statistically, after Matt Olson and Chris Sale. Sale was limited by injuries for about a month or so. The majority of the Braves that would have lapped Baldwin's 3.3 WAR, such as Ronald Acuna, Spencer Schwellenbach or even Jurickson Profar, Reynaldo Lopez or Spencer Strider, were all limited by injuries. Most crucially, the team's starting catcher, Sean Murphy, who is the highest paid catcher in baseball by the way, missed some time due to injuries early, then only hit .194 the rest of the season, despite continuing to be an excellent defensive catcher. 

It comes down to this: if the Braves do not have an absolutely cursed year, Drake Baldwin does not get chances to start, and does not become a major player for this team. Further, even with the opportunities given to him during this cursed season, Drake Baldwin was only an ensemble piece of this Braves team. The Braves were not the Drake Baldwin show this season, like the A's were the Nick Kurtz show, because the Braves still relied on Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna, Grant Holmes, Michael Harris and Hurston Waldrep. Baldwin was, at the very least, reliable, hitting .274 with 19 homers and 80 RBIs, with slightly-below-average defensive numbers. He was a solid piece of a Braves team that was doomed from the start, and Baldwin made them only slightly less doomed than they already were. Considering the fact that Sean Murphy is still on this team, and is better defensively, I genuinely do not know if the Braves will get 5 to 10 more years of Drake Baldwin behind the plate, or even if that's something they want.

To me, the NL's Rookie of the Year this year was Cade Horton. Dude popped into the Chicago rotation midyear, went on an incredible run, became one of their most indispensable pitchers, and made them the low-key wild card juggernaut they became. To the point where they honestly struggled without him in the playoffs. Cade Horton is a big piece of why the Cubs made the playoffs, and a big piece of why they didn't make it to the World Series is that Cade Horton wasn't there every three games. That guy made or broke a season of a major competitor, and that's a more accurate ROY to me. Baldwin was very good for a mediocre team, and took full advantage of the opportunity given to him. 

I knew he'd win Rookie of the Year because sportswriters love that sentimental stuff. Baldwin appeals to the idea in many writers' association guys' heads of 'the guy that pops in unexpectedly and saves the team'. And they don't think it through enough to ask if he really actually saved the team. The people who voted Drake Baldwin to win the Rookie of the Year fell in love with the idea of Drake Baldwin over what Drake Baldwin actually was. And yes, there are lots of Braves fans who can speak to how Baldwin excelled this year, and how he was one of their best pieces, but even they'll admit that he has his limitations, and even they'll admit that they're not sure how much of a ceiling he has. So it's really a vexing outcome.

I could be very wrong, and Cade Horton could be the flash in the pan I was thinking Baldwin would be. But just from where I'm sitting, I think this is a move that won't age well. Still, congrats to both winners. May the glory never end. 

Back Where They Started

 

The last time the Braves finished a season below .500 was 2017. It seems so long ago. It may have only lasted for a couple years, but from 2014 til 2016 the Braves were a sorry sight, with really only Freddie Freeman guiding them forward. The second they traded Craig Kimbrel right before the beginning of the 2015 season, you knew they were throwing in the towel. Let the kids grow up, focus on replacement level guys like Adonis Garcia and Chris Johnson, and wait for Acuna essentially. Hudson left, Heyward left, the Shelby Miller thing didn't work [though it did net them Dansby Swanson]. It was a dark time. Then 2017 things start to improve, in 2018 Albies and Acuna are up and in full force, and then they compete again. And from 2018 til 2023, the Braves are a first place team. Only one ring to show for it, but they had a stranglehold on the East, and some truly terrific teams. Then Freeman left, the Phils got good, and they weren't the only ones anymore.

So the fact that we've reached a season, even without much atrophy, where the Braves will finish under .500, and in fourth as it's looking, is pretty incredible. This is still, on paper, a very good team, and nobody  too crucial has left. There is a conversation to be had about the quality of the people that were extended, like Michael Harris and Sean Murphy and Reynaldo Lopez and Jurickson Profar, and how they may not beg as integral as they were supposed to be when they signed. Lopez has been out all year, Profar missed half the year with a drug suspension trying to get his wife pregnant [it worked!], Murph is out for the rest of the season, and Harris...is infuriatingly mid. He's a .240 hitter, strikes out 125 times a year, decent defensively. The x factor of his rookie year hasn't been there, he's just...a perfectly fine player who has some good days. 

And the guys who are actively aiding this team while contracted...they're fine. With Matt Olson they've got nothing to be upset about, he's got a 5+ WAR year under his belt and is looking at 25+ homers. Ozzie Albies has been wildly inconsistent this year. For months he failed to really do anything, and he's finishing the season with an average year, .241 average, .677 OPS. He played in every game, which is nice, but this team needed somebody like him to truly step up with Acuna out half the year, and in response he was...fine. Not earth-shattering. Marcell Ozuna was also pretty average this year, but in fairness he's 34.

What really killed this Braves team was the pitching thing. Spencer Schellenbach gets off to an awesome start. Then he gets injured. Then Chris Sale becomes untouchable, then he gets injured. Then Grant Holmes finally figures out how to start in the majors, then HE gets injured. Somehow the only guy who hasn't gotten hurt has been Bryce Elder, but he's still kinda struggling. Sale's return has helped, as has the revitalization of Hurston Waldrep. The big thing the Braves have been doing this year has been picking up DFA targets. Erick Fedde, Cal Quantrill, Alexis Diaz, Jake Fraley and Ha-Seong Kim have all seen time with the Braves since the break, and most are just here to fill innings. Kim's pretty legit though.

The Braves' hope is that the awful luck that befell them this year does not carry over to 2026, and that the immovables lead them back to contention. We'll see how many of this year's problems persist, though.

Coming Tomorrow- Just because you're the ideal athlete body type doesn't mean you're gonna be a top tier player. Not everyone's Steve Garvey. Sometimes you're built like a brick shithouse and all you can really do is play the outfield kinda well.

A Class of His Own

 

In talking about Giancarlo Stanton last week, it occurred to me that there's a whole class of power hitters coming to HOF voting that are going to be very difficult to discuss. A bunch of these guys were professional home run hitters without much variance or versatility, but the degree at which they were good at power hitting still made them consistent threats. The top ones of these are guys like Nelson Cruz and Edwin Encarnacion. Neither are hall of famers, but both are among the best power hitters of their generations. The HOF voting establishment has already shunned Jose Bautista, fairly, and Carlos Delgado, unfairly. And look, I do get that simple power-hitting isn't enough sometimes. Dave Kingman isn't in, Albert Belle isn't in, Harold Bai-oh wait. 

And part of me thinks there honestly should be a Hall of Power Hitters. Because there's some guys that are never gonna be Hall of Famers but were unrivaled in just how unstoppable they were at the plate. The BBWAA has instituted a Best Reliever award for next year, so clearly they want to award people who don't fit the normal stats. Maybe power hitting is next? As much as we love to talk about guys like Miguel Cabrera, Ichiro Suzuki and Chipper Jones, sometimes a J.D. Martinez or a Cecil Fielder is important too.

Which brings me to Marcell Ozuna. Marcell Ozuna is still a somewhat controversial MLB figure because of the abuse allegations that have hounded him his whole career, and the fact that the Braves have chosen to meet him at his strengths rather than make him do something he won't be good at. As a member of the Braves, Ozuna has hit 147 home runs and 403 RBIs, and posts an .842 OPS. This season alone he has 20 homers and 61 RBIs, and if he makes this a 25-homer year, his fifth, it'll bring him to 300 career dingers. The man is just built for power hitting, and the fact that he also mixes in contact stuff also makes him invaluable for a team like the Braves. Last year he hit .300. In 2020, the pandemic-shortened year, he hit .338. He can be the all-purpose guy if he needs to, but even if he isn't he's still lethal.

It's a pity that there's not much left for the Braves to really do this year. Ozuna's one of a handful of people on this team keeping the lights on. Hurston Waldrep came up around the Bristol speedway game, and is 4-0 with an 0.73 ERA in that period. Albies and Harris have been hot as hell in the last month. Matt Olson leads the league in doubles with 34 and might be the team's MVP this year. The Baldwin-Murphy platoon has a combined 4.4 WAR. Granted, starting pitching is still a problem, and guys like Joey Wentz, Cal Quantrill and Bryce Elder are being thrown out there because the better options are all hurt. The bullpen isn't a ton better. 

The Braves will likely learn from this season, and come roaring back in 2026. They're just gonna need better injury luck. That killed them this year. 

Coming Tonight: A shortstop prospect who waited a while to start everyday, and now that he's able to...the team really isn't what it used to be.

Midnight Stache

 

Here's what's worrying me. 2025 is our first season in a year or so featuring the full range of Spencer Strider. In 2022 and 2023 he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He nearly won Rookie of the Year in 2022, and he honestly should have won a Cy Young in 2023, a season where he won 20 games and had 281 strikeouts, but apparently sportswriters prefer it if your ERA is lower. Strider is one talented, powerful thrower, and him missing last year felt like a serious loss. You could see it coming, with two straight years where he made virtually all his starts, but it still hurt.

And now this year, where he's finally back and throwing regularly, Strider is 5-8 with a 3.71 ERA and 92 Ks. Maybe it's this brand of Braves team, maybe it's the rehabbing, but it's a worrying sign. 

The factor that still assures me somewhat is that Strider is 26, he's still in his prime, and he can still strike everybody out. In a season where the Braves have lost Chris Sale, Ronald Acuna, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes and now Austin Riley, Strider has stayed healthy and has thrown pretty well this year, even if that ERA, is it tends to be with Strider, is a little high. He's still making great pace and doing what he should be doing, and ultimately gearing up for a fuller and more masterful 2025. As is the rest of the team.

Currently, there really isn't much more for the Braves to be doing. Any thought of the Braves being a last minute spoiler in the NL East has been thwarted by the Marlins going on a run, and any attempt at being a deadline seller was thwarted by their own GM trying to dump players who really wouldn't be worth it. Marcell Ozuna's magic has worn off, Raisel Iglesias has a -0.2 WAR, nobody in this rotation is gonna make 200 innings, hell, I'm not even sure if anybody's hitting 30 homers this year. Matt Olson might, but who knows.

And the future of this team's similarly murky because if this same thing happens next year and the team has to think about building a new core, is it gonna be around Drake Baldwin? I'd say it's a low sample size, but the Braves signed Michael Harris over less of one and I don't know if that was a great investment.  This is a real identity crisis moment for the Braves, because they were not prepared for a bust like this, and they were not prepared for their formula to be unsustainable. So now they kinda have to ride out these contacts and hope something sparks eventually.

For now, the eyes are on Spencer Strider to see if he can sustain his success, or if it's gonna be even more aggravating getting to game 162.

Coming Tonight: Of all the 'life begins at 30' type veteran pitchers, this guy may have been the most unlikely. 

How to be a 'Rookie Star'

 

Midway through the season and already people are trying to figure out who's going to be crowned Rookie of the Year at the end of the season. Now, the AL race is looking pretty won at the moment, with Jacob Wilson having a truly great season, let alone rookie season, but the NL is where things get a little funny. Because sometimes, a guy gets crowned rookie of the year on the wings of a fluke season that may be their best MLB achievement. It happened with Kyle Lewis, it happened with Chris Coghlan, and it happened with Bob Hamelin. And while it's so difficult sometimes to pinpoint when someone is good for now rather than good for the long run, sometimes you can tell. Wilson looks like he's just gonna be a .300 guy for a while. 

But...I'm sorry, I risk my own already-dwindling credibility in saying this, but I just do not see the appeal of Drake Baldwin. I don't.

Drake Baldwin is 24 years old, made his rookie debut for the Braves on Opening Day of this year, and has continued to baffle me in every game since. Mainly, I cannot tell what purpose Drake Baldwin is supposed to serve. He made the roster as a backup catching option for Sean Murphy, a role he still continues to mostly serve. He's played in 5 more games than Murphy yet has 9 less at-bats. He's hitting .279 with 11 homers and 32 RBIs, figures that have been topped by Murphy's 16 homers and 38 RBIs. He's comparable as a batter to Murphy yet Murphy remains the better defensive catcher by a large margin. He's mostly a contact bat with the occasional power perk, yet his .830 OPS is as high as Matt Olson's. I genuinely do not know what the takeaway from Baldwin is. He's a decent enough hitter statistically but people are acting like he's running the team. 

Everything about the season Baldwin is having thus far is screaming 'nothing special' to me, and to that end I lump him in with the rest of the Braves, who are also having a sort of lower-key year. Yet I think Baldwin is seriously leading the ROY conversations right now. I don't understand why the prevailing idea is to reward a season that wouldn't get MVP votes if Bryce Harper or Freddie Freeman came out with it. You want to give it to a rookie that felt like a big story from the year, who helped to change the narrative behind a team or a division. Drake Baldwin's just another Atlanta Brave, and I think he's just gonna amount to a helpful backup option down the line.

Now, with all of that said, we must also discuss Jacob Misiorowski. The Brewers' most lethal pitching prospect, a guy who can stymie the Dodgers and outduel Paul Skenes, and a guy who Topps must be very thankful came up after their cutoff for 2025. The Miz has been dealing like never before, and is 4-1 in his first 5 starts, with a 2.81 ERA and 33 Ks. These deadly June numbers have resulted in an unprecedented All-Star nomination for Misiorowski, which has been met with disdain from several Phillies players who believe that their pitchers should have been given the opportunity, perhaps unaware that when given the opportunity, both Phillies pitchers turned it down because, as discussed, nobody wants to play in the All-Star Game this year. 

And look. Ultimately, deep down, I think the Miz deserves this kind of recognition. Did it make more sense when Skenes got it last year, absolutely. But Misiorowski, in 5 games, has not only shown dominance, he's shown it in big-game situations against great teams. He's also been one of the chief factors in the Brewers returning to prominence and becoming a competitor again. The Brewers have tried a lot of rookies this year, including Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, Craig Yoho and Carlos Rodriguez, and Miz was the one that worked. At least as far as the rotation is concerned- Durbin and Collins both have some interesting rookie stories themselves.

Misiorowski getting an All-Star nod is very hasty, but I get the mentality that made it happen. Now, if he keeps it up, a Rookie of the Year case might also be in order. But we'll see how Drake Baldwin does in the second half, I guess. 

The Ronnie Factor

 

I think the idea the Braves are trying to sell you is that this team is different without Ronald Acuna Jr. Before he came back they were listless, since his return they've been better, he could lead them back to glory. That would be the preferable sell at least. But A.) the Braves famously won a World Series without Acuna, and B.) even since Acuna's return they've gotten caught in losing stretches. They just want you to forget that cause they've been better since the 9th. But...even if the 2021 team could win without Acuna, this isn't that team.

Firstly, let's at least acknowledge that this is peak Acuna once again, as expected. Last season before the injury he was muted and lesser, now he's very much his old self. In 28 games he's hitting .396 with 9 homers and 16 RBIs. That is Ronald Aucna. This is what he does. It is concerning that he's accumulated that few RBIs given the homer totals, as even Sean Murphy, who's hit 9 homers in 47 games, still has 22 RBIs. Is it just that hard to bat runs in on this team? Is having Nick Allen, Alex Verdugo, Eli White and Bryan de la Cruz as late lineup options really gonna make sure Acuna and Olson can bat runs in? Come on now. 

As much as this team has lost already, they're now losing even more. Chris Sale's likely out for a month or so. Smith-Shawver is out just after getting the hang of things. So much of the team they thought they'd have in March [Lopez, Profar, Kelenic, Arcia] has let them down, and now they're doing their best to keep up. Alex Verdugo is still proving why people put way too much stock in him before, he's yet to hit a home run this season. Austin Riley has 12 homers but is more 'fine' than anything this year. Ozzie Albies is also pretty mediocre. Sean Murphy has improved but now that Drake Baldwin has appeared he's suddenly become Travis D'Arnaud, scaring up a good pace as a backup. Baldwin's hitting .293 with 8 homers, and people are already crying Rookie of the Year but can we at least pick someone who has a good chance of sustaining this success over a career? 

Even still, the Braves have won some nice series' recently, dominating the Brewers, Rockies, Mets and Marlins. This week gives them two more division matchups, the Mets and Phils, and so far they seem to be on a similar run. Eventually either their lack of depth is gonna catch up to them or they're just gonna cement themselves as a minimalistic, more one-dimensional good team and see if that gets them a further playoff spot. And if that works I'll probably chuck my TV out the window.

Coming Tonight (?)- We talk about the Mets wasting a lot of players, but this guy has a definite case that they ate up too much of his career on silly shit. 

In the Name of All Things Oly

 

The Braves...vex me. Typically, for a team to vex me, they need to build a hatred in me. The 2010s Blue Jays vexed me. The Cardinals have vexed me since 2011. The Astros have vexed me since 2019. And now the Braves are vexing me. All these teams have committed the cardinal sin of deciding to be good, and surging, long after it'd make more sense for them to be mediocre. If they could have done that all along, they should have. But they have to do this pretending thing and be terrible for a bit and the suddenly spring to life. The difference between an underdog team like last years Tigers or the 2022 Phillies doing this is that those teams weren't great in April, and had to build into great teams by September. The Braves had all the necessary pieces to be great in April, weren't, and tried to course-correct and go 'no we were just kidding' and try and be a good team.

What's nice is that now this strategy is biting the Braves in the ass, because things are going south again and it's making that May come-up look downright absurd.

On May 18th, the Braves were 24-23, and were at the peak of their comeback stretch. Since then, they have won three games. and are looking at a fourth as I write this. And man has this stretch been filled with such ridiculous cosmic irony. First of all, they regained Spencer Strider from the IL, and he immediately injures Bryce Harper, making himself a villain of the NL East. Then the whole Craig Kimbrel thing happened, where Kimbrel seemed to be the only good reliever in Atlanta and got DFA'd after an inning, but Scott Blewett got way more chances and lost more games for them. Then there was that notorious D-Backs game where they were winning 10-4 going into the ninth and the bullpen allowed 7 runs and spoiled the game. And of course you should factor in that during all of this they gave up Orlando Arcia in favor of Nick Allen and lost A.J. Smith Shawver to Tommy John.

The biggest tragedy is that during this stretch Ronald Acuna Jr. has been back, and hitting exceptionally well, with 4 homers and 7 RBIs in 15 games. Yet the team is still suffering. The idea was that Acuna returning would bring this team back, and arguably the team's gotten worse since his return. The problems are piling up, the calls for Snitker's firing have risen [especially after hiring Fredi Gonzalez as a coach], and the other shoe has dropped.

Let's not ignore, though, that Matt Olson is having his best season since the HR parade of 2023, with 13 homers and 37 RBIs in addition to a 2.7 WAR. It's really just him that's fully excelling, because even the usual suspects, like Ozuna, Sale and Riley, are a couple steps down from the norm. And the Acuna thing is nice and all but the mystique is gone. The 'ooh, they could be good after all thing' isn't fooling anyone anymore, even as they're matching up well against Milwaukee. 

They're certainly not dead yet, but this truly isn't a great look for the Braves. Not at all.

Coming Tomorrow- A rookie, one of many, trying to flip the narrative on a recent bust of a team.

The Wrong Team is Under .500

 

One of the things I do not like is when a team begins playing terribly and then midway through decides that they were actually good all along. Especially when said team had every opportunity to be good from the start. The Blue Jays and Cardinals did this all the time in the 2010s, and it would infuriate me to no end. Just pick a direction and stick with it. It's cool when an underdog does this, but when you're already on track for 100 wins and just lose 18 in April just to make it difficult, it's not cute.

That's why this whole Braves thing has been frustrating me. The Braves started the season by losing their first 7 games, and thanks to a scorching May are only now peaking their head above .500. They did this during a series against the Red Sox, an actual good team that's been actually good from the start, and has multiple good players outdoing expectations. Meanwhile, the Braves are still without like 4 or 5 great players and are getting very mediocre stuff from some of their biggest stars, and suddenly they're acting like they were doing this all along. If they were doing this with Acuna and Strider it'd be a different story, but they're doing this on the backs of people like Drake Baldwin, Nick Allen and Grant Holmes. This is verging on Astros levels of skeletal competition.

Like, look at Chris Sale. Chris Sale, after his unbelievable Cy Young season, battled worries that he'd blown his arm out again and would go back to his hurt self. That didn't happen. He did, however, have some very rough starts in April, and now he's gotten his ERA as low as 3.62. He's still a really tough pitcher, and he has 72 strikeouts through 10 starts, but the unstoppable quality of 2024 has lessened a bit. Now he's...a little closer to human, despite still being Chris Sale. And that's what a lot of these guys are, just a bit closer to human. Matt Olson has 9 homers but he's hitting .232. Spencer Schwellenbach had a killer start but has leveled his ERA to 3.31 with 3 losses. Raisel Iglesisas has 8 saves with a 5.89 ERA. Statistically, things are going well for this team, but it's happening in a way that doesn't require the team to actually be good. Like, the team's infrastructure and organization is so strong right now that something that would kill a worse team is only slightly inconveniencing the Braves.

And now you're hearing that Ronald Acuna's killing it in Gwinnett, and he might be back soon, in addition to Craig Kimbrel, who's progressing in the minors. Considering that the only above-replacement outfielder at the moment is Eli White, Acuna's return could not come at a better time. I don't know if it'll save the team though, or elevate them from a hanging-on club to a good one, but...anything to get the Braves out of this 'nominally good' stage they're currently in. If you're gonna compete, compete, don't do whatever the hell this is.

Coming Tonight: A guy who's never had a great start that couldn't be halted by something ridiculous and unfortunate. 

Somehow, the Braves Returned

 

A lot of people are responding to the Braves' recent spike with 'oh, well you figured this team wouldn't stay down forever'. Honestly? No Acuna, diminished offensive presence, Lopez and Strider going down, Sale struggling, Snitker in hot water? I kinda thought this would be the gig this year. But, after all, this is still a Braves team, and they're gonna go for it.

The last eight games, the Braves have won seven. The outlier is a big loss against the Cardinals. Last night they even won a game where a guy on the opposing team hit four home runs in four at-bats against them. All of the wins, barring an 8-2 victory over Arizona, have been close. This is a nice start, however I'm not ready to go 'Braves are going to the World Series' or anything.

Here is the thing: some teams can get around having their biggest stars hurt by having productive backups. When Gerrit Cole started last season on the IL, they gave the spot to Luis Gil, and he helped bridge the gap to the postseason. The Dodgers had all their starters get hurt last year, and they still had enough backups to keep them moving. The Braves, instead of starting Lopez and Strider, are currently going with Grant Holmes, a 10-year minor league veteran, and A.J. Smith-Shawver. Holmes, despite finally being MLB ready, is not competitive team ready, and has a 4.50 ERA despite 2 wins. Smith-Shawver is doing better, but at 22 he's still a bit wet by the ears, and hasn't really been eased in as much as he should have. Similarly, instead of Orlando Arcia, who's finally lost his luster, the Braves are starting Nick Allen at short. This is...sort of working? He's alright defensively, but aside from a .273 average he's really nothing special. Just a lil' twerpy guy who gets the job done. And without Acuna, the outfield of Kelenic-Harris-de la Cruz doesn't look very good at all. Kelenic still hasn't figured it out in the majors, and it's looking like the Mariners were right to give up on him. de la Cruz still hasn't picked up an RBI. What a signing that was. Yet I feel like the Braves are regretting that signing less than they're regretting the Profar one.

The things that are working are at the very least encouraging. Austin Riley's off to an excellent start, hitting .300 with 6 homers and 18 RBIs. I was worried about him after an injury ended his 2024, but he looks like he's in great shape, and he and Marcell Ozuna have been leading this team in Acuna's absence. Sean Murphy's been very hot lately, and had a homer last night. Spencer Schwellenbach has been the Braves' most consistent starter so far, and has a 2.56 ERA through 5 starts. And even if Chris Sale has got his ERA around 5, he still has 36 strikeouts. I don't think there's much to worry about, he's just had some rough early starts. 

I think this stretch is telling me the Braves, at the very least, aren't a last place team. I don't think they're a FIRST place team either, but they're definitely better than they started the season, and they may have even further to go once some people start coming back.

Coming Tonight: Finally, FINALLY, a former #1 overall pick delivers on the promises.