I talked about the Chicago White Sox being in this position the other day, but there's a few teams out there where the eventual last place finish is a likely outcome, at least according to a lot of different pundits. I'm still not certain who'll finish in last in the NL Central, or even the NL West, but you can definitely make a guess that the A's or Red Sox will have a last place year this year. 1, because how can they compare to the rest of the division, and 2, because they're not working with a lot right now.
Notably, the Red Sox do still have some large pieces that will at least keep them from losing 100 games. Rafael Devers, Brayan Bello, Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida are still integral pieces of this team, and they all had great showings in Spring Training. There's even some lower-key pieces that are looking impressive, like Garrett Whitlock, who looks healthy enough to start a ton of great games for the Sox this year. In 6 preseason starts he sported a 2.49 ERA, 22 Ks and a .877 WHIP. Those would be excellent April stats, and hopefully his power carries over to the regular season.
The issue with the Sox's rotation is that they don't have a ton of big names anymore, not since Chris Sale got traded. So it is a largely anonymous group, with people like Bello, Whitlock, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta and Tanner Houck. And there are great pitchers here, with many likely to have an excellent season. But they're not names people have heard of, even with someone like Bello getting an extension. Comparatively, the Yankees have Stroman, Rodon and Cole in their rotation, the Jays have Gausman, Berrios and Bassitt, the Orioles have Corbin Burnes and Kyle Bradish, and even the Rays have Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale, who are at least lower-tier favorites. The Sox just don't have many trustworthy starters anymore, and after their legendary postseason rotation in 2018, that's just disappointing.
The Sox may still have a decent enough season, especially with Story prime for a comeback and so many young pieces hoping to factor in, but with the other four AL East teams all competing, and all excellent, even if they do well they're not expected to go for first place. So even if they exceed standards, they may still have to pawn people off in July and continue to rebuild. It's upsetting that it needs to happen, but that's how good the AL East has been.
Similarly, the AL West has three excellent teams, an alright team, and the Oakland Athletics, who are probably heading to Vegas next year, despite the hesitancy on many accounts to actually bring them there. Unlike the Red Sox, who still aim to be a decent team trapped by four better ones, the A's...are just hoping to finish the season, honestly.
We seem to be at the beginning of the stage where they build a team of young phenoms. Now they have Zach Gelof and Lawrence Butler starting in the majors with the team, they confirmed that Joe Boyle will start games from the jump, Darrell Hernaiz made the team as a backup infielder that could start and Esteury Ruiz, Shea Langeliers and J.J. Bleday are still populating the roster. People will only continue to keep coming up, and they could build a passable core with these guys. The issue is that I doubt it'll be enough to catch the Rangers, Astros or Mariners as they continue to build around their ever-growing youth movements, but it's a start.
You also see the A's employing more veterans this year to provide structure. Alex Wood, Ross Stripling and J.D. Davis are all expected to play big roles in this team, and with the exception of possibly Davis they're all expected to be building blocks to get the team to the next stage. The Orioles had a season where they got low-rent veterans to help out before they could rely fully on the youth, and the A's may need a few more years of that but they're definitely bringing up the right people.
The expectation is still for the A's to come in last, and while the Angels could potentially have another disaster of a season, I don't see the A's outrunning them. It's awful that the organization has gotten to this point, and it's hard to see a team hung out to dry like this. I definitely think they'll be better than last year, and there'll be more specific heroes and promising developments for the future. But they definitely don't have as much as Boston, and will take longer to get back to a competitive form.
Someone needs to come in last in both these tight divisions. Time will tell if it does end up being these two.
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