2024: Don't Believe the Hype

 

With everything that's elapsed this offseason, all the big contracts, contract deferring, contract holdouts, super-teaming, massive overspending, will the 2024 season come down to two teams that outspent the competition?

I say....don't bet on it. 

...lord that's like a Crypt Keeper line. Especially with context. Lordy this season.

Okay. Today is Opening Day. And that usually means that I should probably predict some things. But we know how that goes. I'm famously terrible at predicting things. I think in the mid-2010s I said the White Sox were a World Series team. What the hell happened there? And recently, when I have made predictions that have turned out to be correct, they've done so at the expense of a better outcome. Like saying that Corbin Burnes should win the Cy Young in 2021, and he did...but over Zack Wheeler, who I still think deserved it that year. 

So I think it's a little easier for all involved parties if I go general this year. Cause if I just outright say, oh the World Series is gonna be Orioles-Phillies or something, then it's just not gonna happen and it'll be Astros-Dodgers for me even wanting a fun outcome. 

The key thing that I think is going to happen in 2024 is that the trend of small teams overtaking the big teams thanks to momentum is going to continue. With this playoff schematic being what it is, this will keep happening, because Rob Manfred doesn't see anything wrong with it. So any of you expecting the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees and Giants to factor heavily into this season's endgame, I don't think it'll happen. If the Dodgers make it to the World Series, it will likely be for the same reason the Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl this year; because people seem to like watching when it happens. 

But odds are the playoffs won't work that day. So it'll be someone we're not expecting dominating the narrative this year. Does that mean the Rays, a team that nobody is talking about despite making a lot of really smart moves this offseason, might have a chance? Possibly. The Rays brought on Jose Caballero, Richie Palacios, Amed Rosario, Jake Mangum and Ryan Pepiot this winter, and if you're wondering how these small pieces are going to affect this team, you do not know Rays baseball. The Rays currently have Isaac Paredes, Yandy Diaz, Jose Siri and Harold Ramirez playing major roles, and playing well. This team takes the guy your organization has no idea what to do with, makes him a star and then trades him away before he gets what he's earned. The Rays machine just works, and even if people are pegging them to come fourth this year due to a banged up infield, it will still work this year. They might outdo the Yankees. Who knows?

Does that also mean the Diamondbacks have a shot at repeating in the NL? It's more complicated, because they're not even guaranteed a Wild Card spot this year due to the number of people in this league that might aim to compete this year. And yes, bringing on Jordan Montgomery is a big deal, but the D-Backs made a lot of smaller, rudimentary moves to keep the core power intact, and I know they wanna get back to September and build from there but I don't know if it'll be a lot to get there. A lot of the Diamondbacks' plan for 2024 involves lightning striking twice, which at least happened to the Phillies because they built on their 2022 team, signed huge pieces and became a great team. The Diamondbacks had a great season but need to figure out if it makes them a great perennial team, and I'm not convinced yet.

Does this mean that a middle of the road team, like the Tigers, Reds, Pirates or Marlins, could spring into action and claim the narrative? Perhaps. It's happened before. And this is a league that's fit to be surprised, with every narrative about the season being about 'will Ohtani hit 40' or 'will Soto be a Yankee legend' or 'will it be Houston or Texas'. What if we're looking in the wrong place? We usually are.

I'm still excited for this season, there's a lot that could happen and a lot that I'm hoping does. I'd love to see the Yankees or Phillies do well this year, I'd love to see the Orioles go deep, and I'd love to see the Astros miss the playoffs. But if I left every season happy it'd be a different vibe all around, I think.