It's Yours. Go Take It.

 

I think the best word to describe the Mariners this year would be 'reluctant'. So far this year, the AL West has been led by the Athletics, who then punted and fell apart last month, then the Rangers, who are likely going to relinquish it again soon, all while the Mariners flirt with greatness while being the only great team in the division. Like you kinda want to let them in on it, right? Like, these other guys are gonna keep doing this, you have to try and stay ahead of them or this whole thing is gonna be for nothing. 

The Mariners, just like in 2024, have a rotation full of people genuinely good at what they're doing, and not in danger of going anywhere. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock and Bryan Woo are all working on terrific seasons, and not in a worrying way. Longevity is the name of the game with all these guys, especially Gilbert, Kirby and Woo. Gilbert's been here since 2021, he's still extremely good and makes all his starts, and this season he's got a 3.38 ERA and 129 Ks in 20 starts. Bryce Miller's only made 10 starts so far and he has a 2.27 ERA, with 71 Ks and a 2.0 WAR. Miller was doing this sort of lights-out work in last year's playoffs, and is gearing up for a similar run if the Mariners have it in them this year.

And...do they?? No one on this team has more than 15 homers. No one on this team has more than 48 RBIs. No one on this team is hitting over .281. Josh Naylor and Cal Raleigh were supposed to carry this team and are doing very okay, and Cole Young and Randy Arozarena are essentially doing all the work. Julio Rodriguez has 15 homers and 43 RBIs, and we've all seen him do better. He just picks the weirdest times to heat up honestly. Same with Luke Raley, who was wonderful in mid-May and has completely evaporated any sense of forward momentum. It's not that this team isn't hitting; many of them are. The issue is that the unified intimidation factor from last year, where any of Rodriguez or Arozarena or Naylor or Raley or Canzone can beat your ass, seems to be gone. Maybe Cole Young will drive in a run and get 3 hits but nobody's an everyday hero this year. They just pick their moments. Also Cole Emerson is still ramping up to the numbers the prospectors assumed he'd be at by now. We can't have another Jarred Kelenic on our hands.

The Mariners have a habit of lining everything up in August, and that'll need to happen this time. Last time they were a little better than they are now, and more of a position to buy. Right now they're a hare under .500 and need to win over the Rangers to retake the division. They had two low-level teams this week and went 3-3. If this series goes similarly they may need the help even more than they initially did. Hopefully whatever happens makes them into a better competitor, because if it's this current incarnation, I don't think the run's lasting as long as last year's.

Coming Tonight: Former World Series catcher having, at last, a strong and healthy year once again. 

Championship Series' Day 1: Ample Setup

 

In 2024, the Mariners' rotation of Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller was the single best in baseball. Unfortunately, the team forgot how to hit, and thus the best pitched year in the team's existence [since, say, 2003] was wasted. 

Then earlier this year, the lineup, led by Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena, jumped back into form and led the AL East for a while, even though the rotation was hampered by a ton of injuries. Woo and Castillo were there all year, and Gilbert joined up eventually, with Kirby and Miller missing swaths of the year. By August, when the team had already added Naylor and Suarez, Kirby and Miller were back, and the rotation finally clicked into place again. Yes, the bats were gonna be the headline, but this rotation was good again, and helpful again. Losing Woo right before the playoffs was disappointing, but the other guys were able to step up and hold the line. 

Flash forward to the other night. The Mariners win over the Tigers in a 15-inning team effort, but in doing so, completely exhaust their entire pitching staff. Kirby, Gilbert and Castillo all pitched multiple innings and ruled themselves out for a potential Game 1 of an ALCS, as did many bullpen guys. The next stage would be there, but winning Game 5 was more important in that moment. So when they actually won, the decision to pitch Bryce Miller on three days' rest was, inevitably, a risky one. The Jays had plenty of time to rest their starters, and in addition they added two more, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt, to the mix. The Mariners would be going into a tough matchup with one of their main assets, their pitching, equalized. 

That they won Game 1 is proof that the rotation is amazing again. Everything that happened last year and this spring was buildup to this moment: the rotation can win games as much as Jorge Polanco can. 

Bryce Miller, when the team needed him to, pitched a beaut, going 6 innings and only giving up 2 hits, including a leadoff homer to George Springer. He locked in, leaving many outs to the defense, and only needed to strike out 3. It also helped that Gabe Speier didn't tie the game, and that Polanco was able to add insurance runs rather than force a stalemate, but Miller stepped up and earned the win, on a night where he could have been exploited by a tough, even Mariners team. 

It may only be Game 1, and the Jays may have yet to bring Trey Yesavage or Shane Bieber out, but the Mariners have already proven that they have enough to outlast the Jays in tough pitching battles like these. It's only gonna get tighter once the good starters have their full rest. Game 2 will be Logan Gilbert on short rest after he pitched a couple innings. We'll see if he has a similar performance to Miller. 

Bryce Upon a Rotation

 

A first place team whose starting pitchers allow 1 or less runs per game. I'd say that's pretty good.

There's been this narrative the past few years, 'what do the Mariners need to do to get past the Astros/Rangers', and it's always been nearly insurmountable. Every year it's 'they didn't hit well enough' or 'they ran out of steam late' or 'they just didn't have the roster depth'. Last year was kinda depressing, because they were right there, had the team for it, had the Astros on the ropes, and because of the lopsided schedules of both teams, the Astros ended the season in 1st place with a team that didn't really deserve it.

And now here we are, a Mariners team that's ahead of the Astros AND Rangers thanks to having the best rotation on the AL, some great hitting from people who didn't look like the heroes heading into this year, and one of the best bullpens in the game right now. I'm kinda surprised it's taken off like this, but I'm insanely relieved. 

Bryce Miller, after an incredible start to his career last year, has been responsible for some of the Mariners' best starts of the year. Famously, he held one of the best teams in baseball, the Atlanta Braves, to zero hits for the majority of the game. Right now he's got a 2.61 ERA with 42 Ks in 7 games. It was clear that with no Robbie Ray or Marco Gonzales this year, the brunt of the work would land on Miller's shoulders, and he's taken it like a pro. I think Mariners fans thought George Kirby would be in the spot Miller's in, and while Kirby's been a lot better recently, I think Miller has, and deserves, a big role in this team's rotation going forward. 

But yes, having Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Emerson Hancock leveling their ERAs by just refusing to give up runs. There was a stat the other day where they've allowed 20 runs in their last 20 games, and that's insane. That's...extraterrestrial behavior. And add Andres Munoz still being a great closer and the bullpen rarely missing. Nobody can really hit this team right now.

Which does make things difficult for the rest of the team, seeing as, besides Cal Raleigh, Josh Rojas and I guess Julio, not a lot of these guys are hitting. Polanco and Haniger are producing, yes, but not hitting. Garver wasn't worth the deal, at least so far. There's not a lot of offensive production, and while people can show up enough to make this a 1st place team, the pitching is doing most of the work. And that is not ideal, especially considering Julio Rodriguez is here. I dunno, maybe he'll heat up as we go, but it's worrying.

I'd love for the Mariners to stay in 1st for a while, even if feasibly the Rangers are probably the better team. The Ms rotation might still be unbeatable, though, and will guide them a long way if they all hold up.

Coming Tomorrow- A World Series hero struggling to get his team out of the doldrums of the division.

Wouldn't It be Bryce

 

The good news is the Mariners are finally above .500 again. The bad news is there's still two teams that are a lot further above .500 than they are in the AL West. 

I think the best part of yesterday is getting a sneaky little walk off win while the Angels get trounced by the Marlins. Having Geno Suarez do something awesome while the Angels suffer changes the trajectory of the division a little, lands the Angels in fourth, which is a place they go a lot with Ohtani and Trout, and makes the Mariners look even more impressive going into the third month of the season. I mean, yes, taking down the Pirates isn't the toughest thing in the world right now, but they did this when the pressure was on, and that's always a nice sign.

Part of what's making the Mariners so tough right now is that, a lot like the Pirates, their pitching has been outstanding. Four of the Mariners' starters have WAR above 0.9, including Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller, who have WARs over 1.4. Castillo doing well is something we all saw coming, and both Logan Gilbert and George Kirby doing well is enough of a sure bet, considering how quickly they've taken to the bigs in the last few years. But the fifth spot, after Robbie Ray's injury, looked to be an issue following both Chris Flexen's struggles and Easton McGee flirting with a no-no and then immediately needing Tommy John surgery [which is honestly the perfect metaphor for pitching development in the modern era]. 

Bryce Miller, therefore, coming out of nowhere to win the fifth spot and becoming one of the most dominant rookie starters of all time...is the best possible outcome.

Through 5 starts, Miller has a 1.15 ERA, a 3-1 record, and has only allowed 4 earned runs. And this is Miller's first month in the majors. Typically when people start in the majors, they make some mistakes. Miller's teammate Jarred Kelenic can attest to this, it took him three years to figure out MLB pitching and now he's a hero. J.P. Crawford struggled mightily in Philly and only found his stride a few years into his career. And yet at the moment it seems like Bryce Miller has the talent and knowhow to figure it out immediately. Which is a very nice perk for this Mariners team, which seems to only be getting better with every day.

The M's have been fantastic lately. Unfortunately, so have the two teams above them in the standings. It may not be enough at the moment to catch Houston or Texas, but hopefully they can build on this week and get back to where they were last year.

Coming Tomorrow: A pitcher whose team my Yankees had some fun with this week.