Always Be Closing: That Misleading Statistic..

 

I think that when the 'save' was invented, it was a much simpler MLB climate. Relievers could still go 3 innings because they were essentially trained on the same stuff as starters. Nobody was training to just go 3 batters a day yet, and thus careers were longer. Saves were just an arbitrary 'you made sure the game wasn't a loss' thing, and then around the advent of the closing pitcher it became 'okay, you came in and polished it off on purpose', and then the save had some weight. But eventually, as the closer becomes the valued spot it became in the 90s and 00s, there eventually grows a disconnect between saves and pitching quality. You get closers after a while who save a ton of games, your Alfonsecas and Wickmans and Loopers, and do it without being terribly hard to hit. There's a lot of 30, 35 save seasons that have a 4 ERA attached to it. And eventually you segue to this current period, where the closer is less dedicated, it's more RP1, and there are guys closing games that are doing it because they're the best available option. 

And so that's how we've gotten to this current point, where Riley O'Brien of the Cardinals has made an all-star team, and leads the NL in saves with 34, without being, in my opinion, terribly great at actually closing games.

O'Brien was a Rays draftee who bounced around a ton of places before the Cardinals took him on and made him a reclamation project. Last year he was excellent in 42 appearances, with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.5 WAR. In Ryan Helsley's absence, the Cards primed JoJo Romero and O'Brien for a closing spot, and both did relatively well given the opportunity. In camp, the two fought for the closing spot, O'Brien won, and he got to close games for them all year. However, his six losses and five blown saves speak to the reality that for every effective closing appearance there's a few more really shaky ones. Against the Phillies, going into the ninth with a 4-0 lead, O'Brien gave up all 6 runs and effectively sunk the game singlehandedly. Then three days later he got up against Baltimore and gave up the ninth inning run that lost that one. He's one of those guys that can get a save while still letting a run slip by, like he did against the Cubs in May, or making it a little scarier than it should be [he gives up a lot of walks]. And thus, even with those 34 saves, O'Brien may not be an optimal reliever. The statistic tells you he's good at finishing games with wins, it doesn't tell you how dominant he was in those appearances, and compared to a Cade Smith or a Josh Hader, he's not dominant at all. 

O'Brien's rise tells you a couple things. The Cardinals require a lot of save situations, because their starting pitching isn't lights-out and there aren't a ton of blowouts, but they're also around .500 because there's 6 or 7 games that would have been wins had it not been for O'Brien. The Cardinals are very okay this year, and so is Riley O'Brien. It's really as simple as that.

You're seeing some signs things may get better, like Quinn Matthews beginning to field some starts, and the advent of Cade Winquest to potentially help the bullpen. Blaze Jordan is beginning to hit, and for his troubles has immediately gotten hurt. Joshua Baez had that amazing 3-homer game, and...frustratingly hasn't done a heck of a lot since. Next season will definitely have J.J. Wetherholt and Jordan Walker plugged in centrally and trying to move forward, and that's a very good thing. Until then there's just gonna be a lot of awkward false starts and almosts, and 2026 is most certainly one of those, as the NL Wild Card race has pretty much broken away from the Cards at this rate. 

I guess the lesson here is that, while saves aren't as important as they used to be, relief pitching can still be the difference-maker. 

Coming Tomorrow- Oh, you know, a guy who nearly won an MVP last year and frustratingly refused to follow it up?

Never Really Ober

 

Okay. So now that the Twins are 4 games back from the nearest wild card spot, and have been lapped by both the Orioles and Blue Jays...that means they can power down a little, right? It's wild to me that a team that's 6 games under .500 is still technically a playoff-chasing team. Then again a team that's at .500 has hold of the AL West right now, so it's all kind of a mess anyway. 

The single wildest part about the Twins' case to compete lasting this long is that their trade deadline acquisitions might be the most successful of anybody's. Dean Kremer's been excellent in four Minnesota starts, with a 3.18 ERA, 20 Ks and a 0.7 WAR. A.J. Minter has a 0.84 ERA in 10.2 innings. Jeff Hoffman has a 4.50 ERA, which compared to his Jays numbers is Bob Gibson stuff. They also brought up Kaelen Culpepper since the deadline, and in 16 games he's hitting .333 with 3 homers and 6 RBIs, already looking like a favorite to start at shortstop next Opening Day. But no matter you drape over this team, fundamentally they still have a long way to go, and only have so many good pieces. The hitters have a combined 13.5 WAR, and that's mainly because the starting lineup is a bunch of 1, 1 and a half WAR guys all doing perfectly alright. With the exception of Byron Buxton, this is a team of pedestrian players doing their best. Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach and Kody Clemens are doing everything they can, even if on any other team a lot of them would be a bench bat. Keaschall I do see a future with, but these days he's a pretty good bat with some defensive struggles. 

You also think about the fact that beyond Taj Bradley, Joe Ryan and Dean Kremer there's still rotation unrest. Zebby Matthews and Connor Prielipp are two fundamentally strong pitchers that aren't having great seasons. Bailey Ober is perfectly fine right now, he's 7-4 with a 4.50 ERA. We've seen him do better. In a season where the Twins had a lick of a playoff chance, this was not the right #3 man performance. Maybe if Mick Abel, Pablo Lopez and Mike Paredes had stayed healthy we wouldn't be here, but that's not the hand the Twins were dealt. You can't really blame the ownership for screwing the pooch here, they actually tried, they didn't completely burn the team down in the offseason, an effort was made. It just didn't really work out, regardless of how close it got.

Even now you can still see some effort being put in, a decent Trevor Larnach season with 11 homers and 43 RBIs, Kody Clemens leading the AL in triples because Corbin Carroll isn't here, and Byron Buxton trying to make the most of yet-another injury-shortened year. There's even the entry of a new rookie star, outfield bat Walker Jenkins, a man born in 2005, meaning there's now people ten years younger than me in the major leagues, which is quite sobering. Jenkins was hitting .308 in St. Paul, got to emerge from the corn in Iowa a couple days before the other Twins did, and now gets to [supposedly] finish the season in the majors. Hopefully he's the next step to a year that doesn't end as strangely as this one for the Twins.

Coming Tonight: An all-star closer who's just now seeing the other shoe beginning to drop.

Shuffling the Bank

 

So since the trade deadline, the usually-strong Phillies fielding strategy has been flipped a bit. Because Luis Arraez is now the everyday second baseman, Bryson Stott has moved to third, Alec Bohm has moved to first, Bryce Harper has moved to right, and Trea Turner...is still playing short despite some really rough play at short. But this seems to have solved enough problems otherwise. The idea of Stott losing playing time to a shift also lit a spark in him, as suddenly he's become one of the best hitters in town, with a .263 average, 59 RBIs and 23 steals. I think earlier in the season Stott was an average piece at best, but suddenly he's got a nice season going on. I'm not exactly sure where Brandon Marsh's bat has gone off to, but we'll take Stott's.

The thing about the Phillies right now is that there's a lot of gambits, but they all seem to be working. Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter both had excellent starts their last time through the rotation. Bryan de la Cruz has been an unexpected gem of a pickup, hitting .350 with 11 RBIs in 20 games. Derek Hill might still be one of the best clutch guys in the league, with 17 RBIs in 46 games. Alec Bohm still has 14 homers and 76 RBIs, and has made up for defensive inefficiency with some cool power displays. And now suddenly J.T. Realmuto is hitting, he's got 9 homers and 44 RBIs in 99 games, the old JT seems to have returned. All this and Kyle Schwarber hitting 40 home runs has kept the Phils alive in the wild card race. 

I think the thing that's getting me grumbling right now is the realization that the MLB keeps actively avoiding handing a Cy Young award to a Phillies pitcher. Zack Wheeler's been up for it like three times, can't get one. Cristopher Sanchez was up for it last year, nah, Skenes's year. Sanchez again has been the frontrunner all year, 'ah actually Jacob Misiorowski's stuff is more interesting'. I mean...yeah, but Sanchez has a 7 ERA, 16 wins, he'll get 200 Ks soon enough. Is that not enough for people anymore? If Sanchez misses half the season next year [heh], you'll all be going 'oh if only we gave him one while we had the chance. Wheeler, despite missing 5 starts, is also having a good season, but since he got lit up by the Mariners his ERA's 3.40. How depressing if you're a sportswriter. Looking at a guy going 'oh, a 3.40 ERA in August, better fire up the crematorium'. I'm fairly convinced, and I mean this jokingly, that most sportswriters don't like it when Philly has nice things. Then again, most Philly FANS don't like this either. I have a friend from middle school who I only hear Facebook posts from when the Phils are losing. When they're winning? Not a peep. What's the point of that? Probably more boring. 

I do think the Phillies are on the right track at this rate, after a strong August. They've got a good hand on a wild card spot, and they're 5 games out from the division, which is slightly doable considering that, and it's wild that I'm saying this...the Phillies might have more pitching depth than the Braves. I know, it's insane to say out loud. I like this team's chances, and I think getting a low seed is a nice way of gaining momentum, as they did before. It's just gonna take more stretches like this one and less series' like the Mariners one.

Coming Tomorrow- A veteran starter for a team that technically still has a playoff shot but...I mean, come on.

Cole Fired

 

You tilt your head up at Brian Cashman a little when he says 'oh, we don't need any starting pitching help this year', seeing the board, and then you remember you have Gerrit Cole up there every five days still throwing amazing stuff, and it all makes sense.

As I'm writing this, Gerrit Cole's given up three runs against the Astros. He's human. Christian Walker's a tough out. But I would still say Cole is among the best pitchers in the game, and definitely among the most accomplished. Verlander and Scherzer are probably done after this year, Sale and deGrom are gonna go next, and after them Gerrit Cole is the next-nearest pitching icon. He's got over 2300 strikeouts, has an outside chance of getting 200 wins, has a career 3.17 ERA, has only missed one full season to an injury, and even at his worst is still a dominant, consistent flamethrower. His weakest season to date, 2017, he still wins 12 games, strikes out 196 and tops 200 innings. This is a classic, old-school starting ace, and the Yankees have definitely gotten their money's worth from this contract. Three all-star teams, a 22.3 WAR, a 3.12 ERA, over 1000 strikeouts and that Cy Young in 2023. The injuries have been tricky the last few years, but even in shortened seasons he's still been great. Right now he has a 3.11 ERA, 100 Ks, 7 wins and a 2.5 WAR. He's not the best pitching performer on the team right now, but when this team also has Cam Schlittler, Carlos Rodon, Max Fried and Ryan Weathers, he doesn't need to be. Schlittler's on the road to a Cy Young this year, Rodon's looked good since coming back, and even Elmer Rodriguez held down the Astros the other night. 

The Yankees right now are in a pretty decent position that's only gonna get better once people start coming back. Cody Bellinger was just activated, he's been hot as hell since coming back, he's got 58 RBIs. Ryan McMahon and Max Fried will be back very soon [and Weathers will likely be back in time for October], and Aaron Judge is probably gonna shoot to return before the end of the year. The team is already good, and rolling, and there's the prospect of them getting better. Luis Garcia's been an excellent addition, he's got 5 homers and 11 RBIs in 19 games. Spencer Jones has filled in mightily as the outfield bat, he's got 7 homers and 23 RBIs. Jose Caballero's still a very sneaky little player, with 30 steals and 44 RBIs. Now Jazz Chisholm's heating up, he's got 18 homers, 53 RBIs and a league-leading 36 steals. Trent Grisham was just getting hot, he's got 18 homers and 56 RBIs. These are all people not named Aaron Judge, and they were all running this team in his stead. There's also the possibility that Jasson Dominguez comes back up when the rosters expand and continues his relatively strong work. And once again, George Lombard was ready for the majors, has 2 homers and 6 RBIs, and has a better shortstop play than his contemporaries. 

Here's how on-track this team is right now. Michael Fulmer just suited up for them the other night. Yeah, that Michael Fulmer. He's in our bullpen now. And he got it done. This bullpen already has David Bednar, Brent Headrick and Paul Blackburn surging, and we have Yerry de los Santos on a good pace. Now that Fernando Cruz is out for a couple weeks, we had an opening, Fulmer was around, so sure. And he's been great so far. I'll take it at this rate.

The Yankees are in very good shape right now, Astros struggles notwithstanding, and I'd love them to turn this into something tangible this fall. I've been burned before, and probably will be burned again, but this team has put it together really nicely this year, and is about to become even better. 

Coming Tonight: A trade deadline deal moved him to third, and made him think his job was in danger. So he shifted into overdrive. 

Minding the Jet-Lag

 

It's gotta be weird when you come up with the new-regime Dodgers and move to a market where the postseason isn't guaranteed anymore. Cause the Yankees could have a fluke bad season, like they did in 2023, or they could have some rebuilding years in between Jeter and Judge. But the Dodgers have made the playoffs every year since 2013, meaning there's a majority of current high schoolers who hadn't even been born yet the last time they didn't make the playoffs. Remember in 2012 when the Dodgers could have Kemp, Kershaw, Hanley Ramirez, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett and still not make the playoffs? That is wild. But they've been there in every subsequent season, and guys like Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Walker Buehler, Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig, Dustin May, Max Muncy and Gavin Lux can all come into careers where they're just in the playoffs every season.

And then they leave, either via trade or free agency, and it's not guaranteed. 

Corey Seager left the Dodgers after the 2021 season, signed a mega-deal with the Rangers, and the year after he got there he was a World Series winner again. His Rangers WAR totals have eclipsed his Dodgers WAR totals, probably because the Rangers have gotten a healthier, more consistent Seager who's been able to play a leading role. Since joining the Rangers, Seager has topped 30 home runs 3 times, which was something he never did with the Dodgers, and his 96 RBIs in 2023 were higher than his Dodgers totals. In joining this team, Seager went from a pretty solid, likable young infielder to a contact machine with a possible Hall of Fame trajectory. He just had to sacrifice the playoff certainty, because aside from the 2023 World Series win, he hasn't really made it back to October too much. 

This year is a closer bet than most, as the Rangers are still circling the division lead, as they and the Astros keep trading off who gets to be good so nobody actually takes a lead. They haven't gotten the BEST version of Seager, as he's still missed a lot of time. He's hitting .224 with 13 homers and 34 RBIs, so at least the production is there. It's been up to a combination of wild contact from Ezequiel Duran and his clutch ability and Cheesy Power Hitter Corner courtesy of Joc Pederson and Jake Burger. This appears to be doing something, and I put them ahead of the Astros for the division, but it's not a definite yet, or even a playoff appearance in general. So that has to be sobering for Seager and Pederson.

Then you have Walker Buehler over in San Diego, and it's a much different situation than the Dodgers years. Because the Padres actually have a nice playoff shot, they're eyeing a wild card spot at the moment, they've all been playing really well recently. Fernando Tatis has caught fire, he's looking like his old self, he's leading the team to glory. Jackson Merrill, Ty France and Xander Bogaerts are playing better now than they have all year. The pitching additions have worked, the team looks way better, and they've been 24-14 since the ASG break.

But Buehler's in a weird position. After all the injuries and delays, he came back last season and wasn't all that great. Made the playoffs with Philly, wasn't used much as a starter. Signs with San Diego, makes the Opening Day rotation, does...fine. Right now Buehler is 8-6 with a 4.63 ERA and 108 Ks, it's fine but not as great as his heyday. But because the team has been steadily chugging along, he's not really much of a detriment. He's succeeding even without his best stuff, and is still a crucial member of a potential playoff team without being 2019 Walker Buehler. So it's an interesting balance. Buehler may have some really critical starts going forward, but right now he's not as valuable to the team as someone like Michael King, Randy Vasquez or Robbie Ray. But he's here, and he's doing his best, and he's still not an awful choice. It's just not what he's used to given how pivotal he was to those Dodgers rotations back in the day.

Both Seager and Buehler have a good chance of making the playoffs, but it's not definite. This is the tougher road to glory, but it's one they're taking nonetheless, and hopefully it goes well for them.

Coming Tomorrow- I think I've seen this guy pitch more than any other guy in my lifetime. Almost always excellent up there.

Outmuscled

 

It really is this simple, even still. The Cubs have six guys in their starting lineup with over 500 plate appearances, and all of them are among the best hitters at their position. Bregman, PCA, Suzuki, Happ, Hoerner, Busch. All show up every day and do their absolute best and outhit everybody, and they do that. One of them's probably winning an MVP unless Shohei has anything to say about it. The Cubs' hitters are hitting .250, there's three guys with over 20 homers [the whole outfield], and even the less-heralded positions have extremely good security. And yet because the pitching staff has a combined 4.6 WAR, compared to the hitters' 31.5, I'm not sure what kind of playoff team the Cubs are going to be.

Like, let's be honest, the Cubs went into July knowing they needed to fix the rotation, and they did. They already picked up David Peterson, then they got Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes. The rotation is now Imanaga-Boyd-Peterson-Holmes-Gausman, and you all see how that's better, right? Holmes has been terrific in 4 starts, with a 1.96 ERA, and Gausman's continued his steady but not prime season with a 2-1 record and 22 Ks. Peterson's 4-1 with a 3.93 ERA in 9 starts. Obviously this is better. But it's still not elite. Without Justin Steele, Cade Horton or Ben Brown, it's not elite, and the Cubs will need to hope that Imanaga stays this sharp, or that Boyd continues his upswing. They have Daniel Palencia back, he is closing games, but he's still a little shaken. The bullpen's a liability in general still. They got Ryan Zeferjahn to prevent this and he hasn't helped at all.

So the idea is just to keep hammering away, which is effective. PCA's now going for the 30/30/30 season, he's at 26 doubles. Happ has come alive again all of the sudden, he's looking for his 25th home run sooner or later. Carson Kelly's been very steady, he's got 8 homers and 45 RBIs, continuing his positive production from last year. Michael Conforto's been an excellent DH, he's got 12 homers and 33 RBIs. Pedro Ramirez has been a HUGE help filling in for Swanson, he's hitting .291 with 21 RBIs and 10 doubles. They've had some huge wins in the past week, including scoring 19 runs against the Mariners, and now get to play the Reds this weekend as they head towards a quiet fall.

I just know that the other teams in the NL will be more balanced. The Phillies have great pitching and some definite stars in the lineup. The Braves and Brewers have both facets in droves. The Dodgers obviously are balanced. I can see this team outmuscling the Padres but that's basically it. Unless the Cubs somehow figure it out in a way that fixes all the issues the pitching has had all year, they may exit the postseason around when they did last year, and I really don't want that for them.

Coming Tonight: One of the single most consistent all-around performers in the game. He's got two World Series rings. Right now he's trying to get his team to the playoffs, which is way tougher than it should be.

Kwan the Record

 

So as it stands right now, with a month or so left in the season, the Cleveland Guardians have the third AL Wild Card spot. The Yanks and Sox have an insane lead for those first two, the Guards have the third, and are a game ahead of the Rangers for it, while also being 2.5 games behind the White Sox for the division. It's not a bad place to be. The thing about this Guardians team is that the tide can shift at any moment because, as you'll recall, this team was poised to lead the division for the first few months, then May and June happened and they fell away from .500, and then late July and early August happened and they got even less of a foothold.

However, they have won their last seven games, which works out considering they were all against noncompetitive west coast teams, and now get to play the Royals after they're done with LA, so this time I believe there is an effort to make the Guardians a playoff team yet. Not sure if it's being led by the Guards themselves or the MLB, but there you go.

After a really dull first few months, Steven Kwan is now one of the most important players on this team. His defense is still league-tier, and his contact game is as helpful as always. There are so many years where the Guardians were about to trade Kwan, or could have but didn't, and so he's remained the backbone of the lineup, with some production guaranteed despite the lack of extra base hits this year. A team that has Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez and Brayan Rocchio together doing the contact work is way ahead of the competition, and the hitting by those guys alone has been very impressive, not even mentioning the power guys like DeLauter, Lowe and Adell. By the way, Jo Adell is working pretty damn well as the right field option in Cleveland, he's got 4 homers and 18 RBIs already and the fans love him. Angel Genao's also coming into his own at short, meaning Bazzana and Genao could be a recurring thing going forward. Like usual, the Guardians are a swiss army knife of great young players who can all trade off being the hero, and now that Angel Martinez's better numbers are back the team's even more volatile.

In addition, Foster Griffin appears to be working as the fifth rotation guy. He hasn't been Nats-strong yet, but keep in mind that he took about a month to lock in with Washington, and he's still got a 4 ERA, and 3 wins. Bibee, Messick and Williams are perfectly fine handling most of the work though, and Williams is in the midst of a 200-K year, which should surprise no one. I blinked and Cade Smith has 35 saves, that's pretty awesome considering the job was all but Clase's a year and a half ago. Just the best bullpen in the AL probably, despite Craig Yoho's best efforts. 

The Guardians currently look better than the White Sox, and could reclaim the division and make October very interesting. They have a very nice chance of making the postseason, but unless they make a run at the division, their berth may be at the hands of whichever bandwagon wild card team wants to take off. Which won't be as fun.

Coming Tomorrow- A very sturdy catcher for one of the best hitting teams in baseball.