Division Series' Day 1: Taste the Ceiling

 

It's so cool that one year into the Munetaka Murakami experience he's hitting postseason home runs. That was not his intention. He specifically wanted to play for a lower-tier team, like in Japan, and be a crowd favorite. And then suddenly he immediately becomes a playoff fixture. And he just hit a home run off one of the best pitchers in the AL. One Hundred. 

The Sox are the true underdog team of this postseason, and there really aren't a ton of underdog teams in the running. Braves, Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, none of them are really underdogs. Brewers maybe? Cause they're a less expensive team? But they're still the best team in baseball. The White Sox squeaked in, have a ton of young talent, took down the Astros and are now leveling Cleveland with their best guys rested. They shut out the Guardians, needing only a few hits to do so, and now have an edge going into Monday, where it's probably Davis Martin or Sean Burke getting the ball. The complexity of the pitching staff is really impressing me, because Anthony Kay and Jordan Hicks can step in for a spot job and Grant Taylor can work a 4 inning save. There's no rules. 

I will say, Gavin Williams vs. this offense may result in a much tighter game, but I'm still down for whatever happens here.

[yawn]

Yeah, I know some cool things happened in this one, Tarik Skubal pitching a gem, Kyle Tucker finally coming alive, all that, but...this is so boring, guys. Dave Roberts said that he's already planning the pitching rotation with the NLCS in mind. Like, that is such a pompous statement. He already thinks he's winning this season. If the Braves had any mind, they'd make him regret that, but as we just saw, they needed three games to take out a Phillies team that couldn't hit, and wasted their best starters so that A.J. Smith Shawver could get shelled in long relief. Today it might be a similar strategy honestly, while the Dodgers have Blake Snell out there. 

Look, if the Braves weren't still hitting I'd be more worried. Albies had a late homer to rally a bit. The backup catcher had a homer. There is life in this team, and I think that if they somehow work a split to ensure Chris Sale can pitch, they could do some real damage. But this might be tough to do given how well planned out the Dodgers are right now. 

What a difference a couple of days makes, right?

The Yankees got all sorts of hits against the Red Sox, and their bullpen, and the Rays put out their best starter and mostly avoided the bullpen and we couldn't get shit done.  Drew Rasmussen looked incredible. 10 strikeouts, 8 innings, 1 hit, and said hit was immediately extinguished thanks to Austin Wells trying to leg out a triple with the heart of the order coming up. The Yanks pinch-hit Stanton in the 9th, they would have done it with Wells on second and brought in Volpe or somebody as a defensive sub. So much changes if Wells is content with a double, but alas...

My hope is that Rasmussen was the worst of this. He's gone deep with a no-no against the Yanks twice in the last two weeks. Famously we do a lot better against Nick Martinez, and Freddy Peralta, despite that September upswing, is not god anymore. Game 2 Monday night will have Cameron Schlittler on the gosh darned mound, and that'll make things very tough for a Rays team that only mustered one run, on a Jonathan Aranda solo shot, off of Cole and friends. 

I still have hope, but that was pretty damn bleak, gotta say.

Brewers-Padres might be the most competitive series of the four. The Brewers are the best of the best, but the Padres are hotter than hot right now. If this game was played in San Diego, that go-ahead homer by Ty France woulda counted, but because of that rinky-dink ass stadium in Milwaukee with a closed roof, that was merely an easy out. It sure makes the possibility of a Rays-Brewers World Series even more fun. Rob Manfred wants Yanks-Dodgers again, but how about two really low-market teams with old-ass stadiums fighting for dominance? Make him rip his hair out.

Anyway, this one was exactly what you wanted. Miz looking electric, striking out 6 but still allowing 2 runs. Chourio being the hero and tying the game with that huge homer. Phenomenal back-and-forth bullpen work. A thrilling conclusion where France almost sinks the game. So much really cool stuff. I'm definitely pulling for Milwaukee here, but the Padres could be a decent match for them.

Today we've got another Dodgers game, which Dave Roberts tells me they're planning to win 5-4 in order to set up a washed narrative before the sweep on Tuesday, and some more fun in Milwaukee. I'll try and sneak some in, in between watching football. 

Wild Card Series' Day 3: All That For Nothing

 

This is what the Phillies do that makes it so frustrating. They take an unwinnable situation, a foregone conclusion, 'okay, the Braves are the way better team, they will win', and they give you the illusion of hope. Making this a three game series was exactly that. It could have been cut and dry for the Braves but we legged it out to Game 3, made them trot out Chris Sale and Grant Holmes, and made them really work for a win they already kinda had. All the while they just make you think it was possible. You know, somebody could come alive, somebody could get to the other pitching staff. And then the exact thing you were preparing for from the jump happens anyway and you get worked up over nothing. 

Unsurprisingly, the Braves were the better team. Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Matt Olson all hit crucial home runs in spots they were supposed to. The bullpen could leg out the game, Ray Kerr could have a terrific opening performance, and Chris Sale was around to finish it off. Even Grant Holmes was decent in a mid-game run. Everyone who was in position to succeed did so, and cemented a win that, to be honest, should have been cemented last game. But still, the Braves get to go to LA and potentially upset the defending champs, and make for a pretty evenly-matched NLDS matchup. I'm fine with it.

The Phils, for a team that could not hit, did so much to combat the obvious issue. They got a batting addition and two bullpen additions, none of whom made the playoff roster. They got Derek Hill and Bryan de la Cruz for nothing, and they became surprisingly nice presences on the team. Everyone who was sucking in May got a September boost, like Aaron Nola, Bryson Stott, Andrew Painter and Alec Bohm. And Schwarber and Harper kept hitting homers. Unfortunately, the Trea Turner contract is becoming a horse around our necks, the bullpen still couldn't get through a damn thing, and the Braves were simply the better team. It was nice we legged it out, and Derek Hill hitting a triple this game makes me think he can be useful going forward, but...this was not the Phils' finest hour, and very well might be the death nell of the Harper era. But who knows, maybe Alex Cora can bring us back next year.

Friday I can actually catch my breath, but Saturday we've got ALDSs. I've got one team I love still in the race, plus three teams who've never won a World Series plus the Guardians who haven't won since the Truman administration, and the White Sox who I'd love to see do well. Obviously there's one spot in the championship series' reserved for a perennial figure, thanks to the Dodgers-Braves series, but there's still room for spontaneity in all the other ones. Kinda pulling for a Brewers-Yanks series but am fine with virtually everything but Dodgers-Rays. 

Wild Card Series' Day 2: How's THAT ONE the Even One??

 

I just don't understand this at all. Going into this wild card week, I was figuring that one of these would be really cut and dry, over before it started, and the rest would be back and forth. As it turns out, that was not the case at all. Two series I figured would cause me pain didn't even remotely. And the one that I figured would be a foregone conclusion...is going to game three. 

I'm...vexed. I knew the Braves had weaknesses worthy of being exploited. I just did not think the Phillies were good enough to exploit them at the moment. Very clearly the Braves are good at pointing out ours, like the defensive schematic being pointless if Arraez isn't in at second, the bullpen instability, the lack of general run support and the tendency to lay down meatballs at inopportune moments. We did a lot of that. Harper and Bohm made errors that, if they didn't tie and win the game respectfully, would have been further scrutinized.

All in all, Sanchie put on a clinic, the offense showed up and Bohm came to life yet again, Harper and Schwarber did some heavy lifting, and this team held the Braves down long enough to force a game 3. I do not know how well this is going to go, because the Phillies still have those issues that are concerning everyone, but...we forced a Game 3 against a team that's better than us. The Braves, even if they win this series, may not recover from nearly slipping against a Phils team that can't hit. The Dodgers could have fun with that, arguably more fun than they would if we somehow win this game. 

The Phils really know how to drive me up the wall some days. Maybe this works out. Kinda horrified about the prospect of LA but hey...maybe NOW we gain the momentum we should have all year. If not, Braves-Dodgers is what I was already prepping for anyway.

Anyway, the shellackings. So...the White Sox won a playoff series for the first time in years, the Astros lost in the first round and were exploited for being a weak division winner, and the fun wild card team gets to take on Cleveland and possibly reclaim the narrative of the whole season. I like this a lot better than 'well, it's the Astros......again..' Like, what the hell else can you even say about them at this point? They've sucked so hard they might go to another ALCS? 

The White Sox's contact battery was exactly as successful this playoff series as I'd hoped it'd be. Kyle Teel, Andrew Benintendi and Tristan Peters piled on the contact stuff to end Hunter Brown's day WAY earlier than I thought it would, then Chase Meidroth pulled it over the edge with a 3-run bomb off Peter Lambert, who the Astros already decided wasn't starting Game 3 and certainly wouldn't now. They now head to Cleveland with Davis Martin fully rested, Sean Burke riding pretty high, Kay and Fedde both viable options, and the offense fired up. Murakami came to the White Sox to lay low and made it to the playoffs immediately, and I love it for him.

I will give the Astros credit. Despite giving up, they never completely gave up.

[reads over a second time] Yeah.

They fought til the end. Jose Altuve, Cam Smith and Jeremy Pena all homered. The bullpen locked in more than the starters could. I think it's so fitting that the big error of the game was committed by Lucas Spence, because if it weren't for his four home runs in the A's series, the Astros probably wouldn't even have been a playoff team to begin with. They are here because of Lucas Spence, and they're booted from the playoffs after two games...also because of Lucas Spence. Full circle. Spence probably has a nice career ahead of him, or the Astros hope he does, as Zach Cole, Zach Dezenzo and Brice Mathews haven't really firmed things up at all. 

I figured the Yankees had the edge over Boston. I did not think it would go like this.

Basically...the Sox' bullpen ruined two good starts by their main guns, the main bats didn't show up, and the Yankees, at home, took advantage of every last misstep. Tonight, Cody Bellinger was the kingkiller, with the 3-run bomb off of Garrett Whitlock, after Austin Wells, Ryan McMahon, George Lombard and Luis Garcia Jr. had already made a mess of things. People are worried about the lack of Aaron Judge, but considering that Bellinger, Jones, Lombard, Volpe, Chisholm, Grisham, Wells, Garcia and especially Ben Rice have come through in huge moments for this team, they can worry less. The whole time, the Yankees have been trying to be more than just 'Aaron Judge's team', and right now that's what we are. The whole team won this series and kept it short. 

Rays-Yankees is gonna be TOUGH. I think we can find a way through but the Rays have a whole mess of weapons, and they will not make it easy. If either team makes the ALCS, they'll deserve it. I hope the Yanks can rise to the occasion, but the Rays have been too much for them at many points. I just hope this time will be different. 

There was a moment where it genuinely looked like the Sox were tanking for seed choice. They were losing the last few games of the year, and I thought it was because they wanted to face Houston and not the Yanks. Which would have been a smart move because they'd have won against Houston. In all actuality it was because they completely ran out of steam and had nothing left by the time they got to the Bronx. 

The Sox still got a decent start out of Sonny Gray, a helpful homer from Willson Contreras, and a winning throw from Nate Eaton to nab Ben Rice at home. That's it. Garrett Crochet was not ready and soiled the game. Whitlock, as good as he's been this year, didn't help either. Rutschman, Abreu, Rafaela and Durbin were listless. It was a relatively cut and dry series, which is great for me personally but you never want that for Yanks-Sox. It's gotta be back and forth, that's more fun. I appreciate the ease of it all but...it's just clear they were exhausted just from their second half comeback. That's a win in itself, and hopefully the Chad Tracy era yields more seasons like these, but...yeah, not the immediate gratification many fans were hoping for.

The wild card teams that make the playoffs always are correspondent to their momentum. If they're gaining as the season ends they've got a shot, if they're losing they may be in trouble. The Cubs had some momentum going into September and lost it...around the same time the Padres gained theirs. So this one was honestly pretty simple.

A lot is gonna be said going into next year about Xander Bogaerts. He hasn't put up Sox numbers as a Padre but he's been plenty good, and his big RBIs this series are proof that he can be helpful in the postseason. Maybe there's merit to that contract after all. Same with Machado, who looked like a lost cause in the first half and wound up with a 30 homer/90 RBI season anyway, just with a bit less heft than usual. These guys can be helpful even off their peaks. Of course, Gavin Sheets was the real hero, breaking the game open with a massive bomb and making the eventual win a foregone conclusion.

The Padres looked amazing this series. Unfortunately, now they have to play the best team in baseball. The hope will be that the momentum holds and they can best Milwaukee in an upset, but this will be tough with the lack of real starting depth the Padres have. 

So here's the thing. Tropicana Field might be cursed now. Which is intriguing.

The last game of the season, the Sox were GOING TO host the Cubs at Fenway, and then a huge storm came and MLB said 'no, this game has to be played, we have Tropicana Field open, get down there'. Let's forget that the Yanks and O's also have a game in the line of fire, and that's not gonna get played at all, but Cubs-Sox needs to be played, even if they're both in, and even if the seeds are pretty solid. So the Cubs and Red Sox go down to Tampa, play in this meaningless game, Roman Anthony gets hurt, Alex Bregman attempts to play hurt. And then they both go for their playoff games and they both lose immediately. Rob Manfred, as he's going to a lot in the next six months, will insist there was no connection. But it's awfully suspicious that you hurl two teams out of their comfort zones and they both lose right after. And one guy gets hurt. 

The Cubs did not have any life this series. I also think they were at the mercy of their starting pitching options, and Boyd and Gausman were not as strong postseason options as they were last year. The bullpen didn't help either. And both PCA and Bregman failed to really make much of an impact. There is definitely a future for this team, and Pedro Ramirez had a very nice rookie come-up as a depth infielder and contact bat, but next year they'll need to contend with the Cardinals, who will inevitably strike back, and the Pirates, who'll hopefully have a healthier Paul Skenes, and unless the pitching suddenly reverts to classic energy [getting Steele and Horton back at full strength would certainly help], it'll be much tougher. 

Alright, all down to Atlanta tonight. Would love a Phils win somehow but I also have tempered my expectations and know, realistically, who the better team is. Intrigued nonetheless.

Wild Card Series' Day 1: Close and Not Close

 

Okay, let's just...temper ourselves, first of all. The Phillies aren't playing like a playoff team. They haven't since like August. They got in due to some luck, don't have much hitting energy left, never really did to begin with, and have the same issues, including bullpen troubles, as always. The Braves are the better team, the Phillies needed to find moments to best them in between their own troubles, and while they did...the decision to let Jhoan Duran face Michael Harris was the one that did them in. I think they were trying to do a Dave Roberts management thing, putting in the best pitcher rather than the most logical one. It's what Roberts does with starters in the postseason. Mattingly did it with the one good reliever he has, just plopping him down and hoping he does enough of the work to chill down the core. It worked for 1 and 2/3rds innings, and then it backfired.

Austin Riley's 3-run bomb shouldn't be diminished, as it's a huge moment to save a season that was in danger of falling off, nor should the offensive work from Ozzie Albies and Mike Yastrzemski. The truth of the matter is the Phils had Atlanta on the ropes, they made what they thought was the best decision, with their best reliever, and they lost the game because they thought they were better off with one more Duran batter than any other reliever, which would make sense had he not faced five already. If Bowlan goes in, I think there's still a chance we win that game.

It comes down to Cristopher Sanchez today. If for some reason he locks in and we tie the series...I still don't think we're taking it because the Braves are simply a better team. Yesterday at least proved we can move the needle a little if we're not busy getting in our own way.

I think it was fitting that the game between two also-rans without terrific records was a bullpen game. Unfortunately for the Astros, that already left them at a disadvantage, as their bullpen's been quite terrible this year, and that Bryan King was the first to flinch isn't shocking at all. The White Sox are capable of this sort of contact energy when the other guys aren't looking, and without a Lambert or a Brown to fall back on, the Astros were leveled and, frankly, human.

Also, this being a bullpen game may have fooled the Astros into a sense of security, because Hagen Smith is technically a reliever, but since he came up midyear the Sox have been slowly stretching out his innings and trusting him with more and more responsibility. The idea, I assume, is to let him start next year [something that will be welcome considering how many Sox guys may have overexerted themselves this year], and so this being an extended opener spot for Smith sort of turned into a preview of that. Smith went three innings, gave up 2 hits and no earned runs. Credit to Grant Taylor, Jordan Hicks and David Sandlin for the assist. It's wild that Jordan Hicks seemed to regain his mojo as the year went on, and is back to being a strong spot guy. 

Anyway, Sox are up 1-0, and are very close to doing what twenty earlier incarnations of the team could not [win a playoff series]. I will be rooting for them.

Anyway, uh...this one was nice, wasn't it? 

I'm being very careful because the Sox could absolutely come back, but...them landing in the playoffs after burning through the goodwill in 2 months and robbing themselves of Alex Cora, then coming back and going wild...that's a win in and of itself. That's a moral victory. Payton Tolle having a strong enough start on his own merits, that's a big win. Everything else was essentially as expected. The bullpen did not hold up, the lineup shuddered at the prospect of rising to the occasion, Roman Anthony's likely hurt again, and Brayan Bello's back to square one. 

The Yankees, meanwhile, had a highlight reel tonight. Cam Schlittler threw 117 pitches and allowed 2 hits, a walk and ten strikeouts. George Lombard went 3 for 4 with 2 runs. Austin Wells went 2 for 3 with 2 RBIs. Spencer Jones had a big hit and scored 2 runs. Paul Blackburn and John Schreiber were untouchable. And Ben Rice made up for the lack of Aaron Judge by hitting TWO big home runs, one to pad the lead and another in the eighth, a grandy, to make this a foregone conclusion. Rice has had a HUGE season, and continues to be a spark plug as a power bat. 

Fried vs. Gray next. Would love the Yanks to close this one out, but when have the Sox ever made it easy?

And finally...JEEEEEEZ.

I kinda figured the Padres would have the edge just for the sake of their momentum vs. the Cubs's, but my GOD. The Cubs barely showed up. Their choice for top starter, Matt Boyd, is in the midst of a recovery year and didn't hold down the Padres well at all, giving up home runs to Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, the marquee guys. The bullpen didn't do a heck of a lot better, and when you've gotta throw Assad and Civale out there instead of specialists, they're gonna make mistakes. Altogether the Cubs had three hits in this game. Only one was off of Michael King, who was absolutely electric, going 7 strong and striking out 8. The other two were off of returning hero Joe Musgrove, who did well enough for his return to the mound. Two of the hits were from Nico Hoerner, the other was from Seiya Suzuki, meaning PCA, Bregman, Swanson and Happ could not get a single thing done. 

The Yanks bodying the Sox behind Schlittler was something you may have predicted, but this absolute shellacking the Padres performed? Maybe the Dodgers were commanding so much of the narrative that nobody was really noticing the Padres get hot. And now they have the leverage, the home crowd and the pitching edge, with Nick Pivetta looking to seal the deal today against a down Kevin Gausman season. Can the Cubs respond? 

I'm thinking at least two series' end today. I'd love to have three, but that would imply the Astros are gonna lay down and die, and they really never do that when I want them to.

The Best of the Rest: 2026

 

On a day where all 30 teams are playing for the last time in, depending on how cynical you're feeling, six months or eighteen months, I'm somehow watching more football than baseball. Mostly because if I end up watching the Phillies game they'll just start to betray me. 

The thrilling part of today's goings-on, even two days away from a really fun playoff schematic, is that there were still two spots open, both due to historic collapses. The Phillies had a huge lead for that wild card spot, then just stopped winning and had to win today's to ensure a sixth seed. The Astros, while leading the AL West, refused to stay above .500, leading to today's stalemate with the Rangers, where one needed to win while the other lost in order for anything fun to happen [and nothing fun did happen]. 

It's a picture of a season where nothing was pinned down, even when it should be. The Orioles and Pirates, after being eliminated, had late swells that drastically changed divisional pictures. The Marlins were a very fun spoiler of a team despite ruining their own playoff chances. The Diamondbacks kept fighting until the very end, in a way where you could never count them out. Considering how many of these non-playoff teams just lay down and die in September, it was a nice change of pace.

This makes this year's Best of the Rest superlatives post a bit more fun, because in addition to the usual amount of cynicism, I actually have some good things to say about a few of these teams. As usual, these are superlatives for the teams that didn't make the playoffs, in the same vein as 'best dressed', 'class clown' and 'most improved'. This one was in flux til post. 

Most Likely To Succeed [According to the Sportswriters in January]: Seattle Mariners

Team That Peaked Too Early: St. Louis Cardinals

Team That Peaked Far Too Late: Pittsburgh Pirates

Best Squanderer of Hopes Their Fans Had in 2025: Toronto Blue Jays

Best Squanderer of Hopes Their Fans Had in May: Sacramento Athletics 

Best Pitching Staff for a Team That Didn't Make the Playoffs: Pittsburgh Pirates

Worst Pitching: Colorado Rockies, third year running

Most Willing to Settle: Minnesota Twins

Most Puzzling Use of Money: Washington Nationals

Most Depressing Team To Write About Every Two Weeks: Kansas City Royals

Team Who May Be Delighted to Know That There’s An Opening Shaped Like a Doorway Where You Could, In Theory, Exit the Revolving Door, But Only if You Wanted To: Baltimore Orioles

Most Comically-Timed Injuries: Detroit Tigers

Best Immediately-Distinguished Glimmer of Hope: Miami Marlins

Best Backfiring of 'Titanic Will Never Sink' Logic: New York Mets

Most Unwilling to Recapture the Lightning in the Bottle: Toronto Blue Jays

Most Anonymous September 28-Man Roster: San Francisco Giants

Best Straw Breaking the Camel's Back: Los Angeles Angels

Team That Has No Idea What It Wants: Cincinnati Reds

Biggest Anticlimax: Texas Rangers

Best Overall Team That Didn't Make the Playoffs: Arizona Diamondbacks

Least Likely to Make This List in 2027: Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates

That's our roundup of the other 18 teams. Now it's down to the other 12 to make this a satisfying conclusion to the season. No pressure. 

Brain Sku

 

Remember a week or so after Tarik Skubal made it to LA and he was only doing okay and people were worried the Dodgers gave Zyhir Hope away for nothing? I mean, all will be revealed when Skubal signs with somebody after the season, but...you don't get Tarik Skubal on your team because of the okay starts. So when the good starts happen, nobody's gotta be shocked. He's Tarik Skubal. He does this.

Sku in LA has been as successful as you might expect. In 9 starts, he's 4-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 60 Ks. This is exactly what he was doing in Detroit but with a much thinner ERA. He had some trouble for about a week and a half, got over it, got better and put in another excellent season, one the Dodgers are now reaping the benefits of. Skubal has been a very nice addition to the Dodgers' rotation, which now has Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Emmet Sheehan all working pretty well. The key to this team, once again, will be legging out starters as relief pieces, as Justin Wrobleski, Roki Sasaki, and I can only assume Eric Lauer if he's back this year, will be used in long relief and will strengthen the postseason bullpen...which, to be clear, is already very strong because Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Jack Dreyer and Brock Stewart are all having great seasons and it won't be as hellish to call for a 'pen boost midgame. 

For the second year in a row, the Dodgers are entering the postseason as something other than the clear favorite. The Brewers will be the top seed, and though the Dodgers will also get a first round bye, they will have to work their way up to a prevailing spot. The Braves, Phillies, Cubs and Padres all want the opportunity to take them down, and the Padres have done it before. The Dodgers are very good this year, but have lesser performances from Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith, which is...their core. They also are just now getting production out of Kyle Tucker, but who knows how long that'll last. The pieces of this team are excellent, and could potentially get them a third straight ring, but...the strings are showing. It's a more human version of this team, with parts that can go wrong [Edwin Diaz, the catching for a month, Enrique Hernandez FOR NOW..] and guys who can, and have, not show up for big moments. Thanks to a really easy schedule, the Dodgers are 15-5 in September, and it's worth asking...would they still have been 15-5 last year given this schedule? They are better than bad teams, even depleted, heading into October...but are they gonna be better than good teams when it counts? No one's quite sure yet.

I think Ohtani's gonna be the big question mark. A lot has been made of Aaron Judge missing Yankee playoff games, but Judge is notoriously bad in October. Ohtani's got 11 postseason homers and 24 postseason RBIs, and that's just in two seasons. If he's got everything straightened out, he'll be that postseason hero again, which sounds like it'll be pretty easy to do, but...if he's not all the way there in October and struggles...that may say all it needs to. The Dodgers are going to fight like hell to ensure that nothing can stop them, but as we've seen in 2019, 2022 and 2023, even if they're extremely good, there could end up being someone better when they don't expect it. 

Coming Tonight: The Rays claimed him off waivers before the season and he's been a major contributor to their astonishing regular season run.

Somebody Has to Win

 
It is...the last week of the season. The thread lines are getting wrapped up before the playoffs start. Everybody is jockeying for position. The Rays already have a first round bye, the NL race is just coming down to wild card seeding. Everything is coming together.

The one issue is that not only do we not have an AL West champion yet, but neither team is above .500. So...if either the Rangers or Astros could stop not wanting it for a moment, we could actually figure out what the story of this division will be.

At the moment, the story of the AL West in 2026 has just been not committing. The Mariners were primed to win out this year, and they continuously refused to put anything together. The A's had a big push early on but completely fell apart once the tentpole hitters got hurt. The Rangers were technically next best but they kept frigging losing. They remained determined, refusing to deal at the deadline despite nearly giving Jacob deGrom to the Braves, and then they roared back in September with the return of some needed pieces. And yet...they're still under .500. They had a leg up on the Astros a moment ago and now they're tied again at 1st. The Astros, meanwhile, have bubbled under, grabbed 1st for a bit but haven't had it commandingly arguably, and don't want to let a postseason opportunity slip by for a second consecutive year [man imagine like...not making the playoffs for a decade]. 

So what happens now? Well...somebody is going to need to show up. Either the division winner will be a momentum team and slay some people despite the record, or it will be a cut and dry in and out appearance during wild card week. Either way, it needs to be earned.

The Rangers have become a very scrappy, hard to keep down sort of team, which is what happens when Jake Burger, Joc Pederson and Ezequiel Duran play crucial roles. Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung and Brandon Nimmo make up a really nice core which has kept the team from completely sinking under recent losses. The successor for Marcus Semien has arrived almost immediately, and it is Justin Foscue and his contact work. And then you've got the return of Nathan Eovaldi, utilized as a long relief guy with perks. Eovaldi's had a down year after his strong 2025, which is kind of expected, but he's still got 11 wins and 147 Ks. Between Evo, deGrom and Gore, they're not exactly down on strikeout artists, and now that Cody Bradford's back it's even better. I think from a pitching standpoint they're better suited for October, as they also have Jacob Latz, Jakob Junis and Tyler Alexander standing by. It's not as deep as the 2023 team, but they could surprise some people.

And then you have the Astros, who are dangerous enough to still be a factor. Yordan Alvarez, Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Pena and now Yainer Diaz have been very reliable at the plate. Alvy's obviously looking for an MVP, but quietly Paredes is somehow just as good right now? He's got 23 homers, 90 RBIs and an .800 OPS, and has gotten even better as the year's gone on. This is another all-timer year for Josh Hader in the ninth, a strong season for both Hunter Brown and Hayden Wesneski, and a surprise comeback from Peter Lambert. The Astros teams are just very well built, can sustain bad seasons and injuries, and can never be counted out. I owe it to the strength of the organization and the depth of the roster. The issue is, and this ties into why they're not a runaway 1st place team, you can tell this is a depleted version of this team. Big pieces have moved on, big homegrown players are in other markets, and the reinforcements haven't completely taken over yet. Cam Smith, Brice Matthews, Ethan Pecko, Miguel Ullola and Lucas Spence are here, but they're not running away with anything, at least not in the way that some of the Rangers rookies are.

It's still a toss up, and the fact that the Mets have been fighting back against the Rangers and the Astros have had no trouble with the Mariners proves it's not a sensible path at all. It could come down to the wire, and the winner may still not be a .500 team. I think, just from a logic standpoint, that the Astros will probably win out just because they've had more season leverage...but I still kind of want the Rangers to work an upset at the eleventh hour. The Astros thrive with a late rally, but the Rangers have proven that they can find momentum even before the Astros do.

Whoever wins will definitely earn it. Where they go from there is up to them.

Coming Tomorrow- Oh, you know...the most important guy moved at the deadline and all...