Never Ced

 

So...Yanks-Sox caught us at a weird moment. We were 3-4 since the Reds series started, and now we're 3-6 [I'm writing this before the game last night]. It had been a while since our last cold spell, so we were kind of due, but this is the kind of thing where...we might have accidentally given the Red Sox life. And I'd rather we didn't do that.

The Sox don't have a fully terrific team, especially with Jarren Duran still being a disappointment, but they're creeping up to the O's in the standings and are beginning to scare me a little, like they might be something after all. Early on this season, we were calling Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Payton Tolle disappointments and now they're all having really nice seasons. The rotation looks genuinely excellent right now, across the board. I know how often it feels like it's being tied together with a rubber band, but this is a very compact group of 5 solid hurlers, not weighed down by a guy fighting an injury [sorry Garrett Crochet]. Ranger Suarez is looking Phillies-good, and has a 2.83 ERA with 84 Ks. Connelly Early has something resembling ace numbers, with 7 wins, 88 Ks and a 3.59 ERA. Sonny Gray is 9-1 with his ERA under 2, and barring a lower K total than usual he's looking like his old dominant self, which is very good for a guy that felt like a buyout. Tolle's a terrific leverage guy who kept the Yankees down to only one or two hits the other night. And Jake Bennett's slowly learning the ropes, and has a 3.27 ERA in his first 6 MLB starts. This is a legitimately great rotation that could get even better if Crochet comes back without much difference. The bullpen's a little shaky, but they have Chapman, at least for now. 

It's the lineup that's a bit hazardous, despite the spark keeping it interesting. Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu have remained the steady backbone of this lineup, continually providing excellent lineup support and great everyday defense. Rafaela leads the team in doubles with 18, and has 35 RBIs and 10 steals. Abreu has 10 homers and 38 RBIs, and is having a more traditional power year. Both are integral to this lineup, more than even Duran has been with his .198 lineup and 98 Ks. What's really upsetting is that the young core the team was trying to set up last year is nowhere to be found. Kristian Campbell has yet to make the bigs this year, and both Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony are hurt. As is Trevor Story, as custom. So now we have Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler plugged in playing those roles, and you can kinda tell something's missing. Seigler's batting .300 through 10 games, but I'm not sure how much of a ceiling he has with the Sox. Durbin's doing better than he was but he's still just a .229 hitter, Yoshida's having another down year, Wong is surpassing Narvy again. Barring Rafaela, Abreu and Contreras, there's not really a ton to this lineup. Which is kinda upsetting.

The Sox have the momentum right now, and could use that, and the pitching, to ride up the standings a little and give the top 2 teams some heat. I don't think this means they're a full competitor yet but it means I'm not writing them off as much as I was.

Coming Tonight: He had a big hit on Opening Day, and has remained on the roster long enough to be one of the few people on his team actually hitting. 

A Control Artist in Denver

 

...sounds crazy, no?

Tomoyuki Sugano finding success in the MLB despite not overthrowing or being an especially remarkable athlete is one of those complex stories you only get every so often. Remember, Jefry Yan, who jumps a mile high when he gets an out, will likely never make the bigs, but Sugano, even with his flaws, still stays dominant, even in a slightly different definition of dominance.

Fundamentally, Sugano is not Jacob Misiorowski. He's not even Parker Messick. He doesn't throw hard, he doesn't strike people out, and he doesn't go too deep. Sugano is an arsenal picture who keeps it in the park and goes by efficiency and trickery. He's 36 years old, and his fastball peaked in the 2010s in Japan. What he has left is intelligence and form, and that goes a long way. He's 8-4 so far this year, with a 4.80 ERA and 16 homers allowed. Now, in Denver of course he's gonna allow a lot of home runs, but he allowed 32 last year in Baltimore. Putting a leverage pitcher in Coors Field could be a recipe for disaster [as Michael Lorenzen could tell you], but Sugano keeps winning games and throwing strikes, and he still very much has a job in Denver. Will he get lit up? Yes, sometimes. But he's able to hold the Cubs to 3 runs, or the Pirates to 1 run, or the Reds scoreless. He doesn't get lit up terribly often, and even when he does he still finishes out the start. Just a consistent, steady, reliable guy playing for a team that needs something reliable.

Anyway, the Rockies are once again last in the MLB. Not as embarrassingly as last year, but it's still going pretty poorly. They've found a winning combo with Hunter Goodman and T.J. Rumfield, that's definitely the answer. And Kyle Karros, Willi Castro and Cole Carrigg are making decent progress. Carrigg at least has an .860 OPS in 16 games, and already has 11 RBIs, so there's not a ton of learning curve. Karros there sort of is a learning curve, it's taken him a bit to get going, but he's up to .250 and has decent contact perks, so that's a start. I also credit this team for finding great seasons from Jake McCarthy, Mickey Moniak and Troy Johnston. The rest of the lineup is painfully replacement level, including the once promising Ezequiel Tovar and the still-not-all-the-way-there Jordan Beck. Pitching-wise it's not much better. Feltner, Freeland and Lorenzen are all struggling. Dollander was doing well but got hurt. Sean Sullivan might be a decent rotation option if he played literally anywhere else. The bullpen's actually kinda okay but even Victor Vodnik's having a rough time out there.

It is nice to see success stories and signs of life, but it's still not an especially impressive full team effort, and it's not too much further than last year. Like, again...Tomoyuki Sugano is counted as a major success story here, with his 4.80 ERA. Maybe someday they can have a full squad capable of rising beyond replacement level novelty guys, but until then, that's gonna be what keeps the lights on sadly.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy about to suit up against my Yankees and hopefully this doesn't go as badly for my team as the last two nights. 

Reid 'Em and Weep

 

Gotta say, Reid Detmers has had a really weird career. Pitches a no-hitter in his first full season, steadily builds a reputation in his sophomore season, pitches hurt in 2024, then is the 6th man in the rotation who pitches mainly out of the bullpen in 2025. And now he's starting again and having one of his best seasons yet. It's rare for a guy to not miss a season over his first 6, but Detmers has at least played a role in this team's picture even if he's not at 100%. You have so many pitchers that'll be no factor in a team's build for 2 years then come back and recapture momentum. Detmers has been active for the Angels even when he's been bad.

So it makes this season, where his ERA's at 3.93, his WHIP's at 1.053, and he's thrown 104 strikeouts even before June, even more of a triumph. The man never left, he just bode his time, and now he's got a legitimate starring role in the Angels' success, alongside Jose Soriano. And for his efforts....he's probably gonna get traded.

Again, because Detmers is only 26, he's honestly a really good trade deadline asset, and this season's proving his ceiling is still very high. He's had a small bit of trouble recently, especially his previous start [I'm writing this before I know how he did last night], but overall he's still a solid, reliable starter who's used the vacancies from Anderson and Kikuchi to make even more of an impact on this team. Even when he was good, Detmers was only like the 3rd or 4th man, now he's a solid #2 to the still-strong Soriano [8-4 with 102 Ks], and them, along with Walbert Urena, have made for a much more solid Angels rotation than anyone thought.

Now...without Mike Trout, the offense isn't exactly stellar, but we knew that as well. Neto, Peraza and Schanuel are decent centerpieces, but Neto currently leads the AL in strikeouts, and none of them have an OPS over .800 [yet somehow Wade Meckler does]. The exciting replacement level smashes we spoke of last time are all basically gone, with only Donovan Walton remaining. Denzer Guzman and Christian Moore, on call-ups, have ranged from okay to forgettable. Lowe and Adell are pissing people off. It's just not an especially varied offensive strategy right now, and I don't know if Neto can really carry things as much as the team wants him to.

The Angels probably won't finish anywhere else but last, as I don't see the Astros, A's or Rangers finishing with a worse record. Some big pieces will likely go at the deadline, including Detmers, and possibly even Soriano or Trout. I have no idea when the Angels will next be good, and firing the GM isn't gonna salvage things if the owner deliberately wants the team to lose. 

Coming Tonight: Many Japanese pitchers are tricky flamethrowers who out leverage you easily. But sometimes you get a guy who's a pure control artist who gets you out just by outthinking you. And somehow one of those is working in Colorado. 

B-Rey of Hope

 

And for the FIRST post I'm writing on my NEW laptop...a fresh take on an old classic. Bryan Reynolds having a spine-shattering comeback year in Pittsburgh. That last 'in Pittsburgh' part is the baffling bit. Every year for the past four years there's been the same narrative of 'will the Pirates trade Reynolds to the Yankees'. And they never do. And the Pirates are better for it, because now I can't imagine that lineup without him. Yes, this lineup has Konnor Griffin, Brandon Lowe, Nick Gonzales, Ryan O'Hearn and, when pressed, Oneil Cruz, but Reynolds is still the central force behind this team.

And that's wild considering that last year, Reynolds wasn't looking like himself. The strikeouts and errors piled up, the homers were at a surprising low [16, the same as his rookie year], and it just looked like he was out of gas. Now you could do what Tommy Pham did and blame the thermidor, or you could actually make an effort to get better, and that's what B-Rey did. Right now he's hitting .289 with an .889 OPS, 11 home runs and 52 RBIs. That RBI total is putting him on track for his first ever 100 RBI year, which is wild to think about considering he's 31, but as a contact guy more than anything I kinda get it. The pop is undeniable though, especially this year.

I did not think a veteran power core would work for this Pirates team, but Reynolds, Lowe and O'Hearn are exactly what the lineup needed. Lowe's on track for a second straight ASG appearance, he's got 19 homers and 52 RBIs. O'Hearn has 11 homers and 45 RBIs, and is trying to distract from some poor defense [much like Oneil Cruz was]. I don't think the Marcell Ozuna thing worked as well as they'd hoped, but one-dimensional power is still something I guess. Those guys fit in well with the young contact guys like Griffin and Gonzales, and it's led to this team having a .257 average, which is pretty damn good considering the idea was that this team was supposed to rally behind a starting pitcher.

As for said starting pitcher, uh...Paul Skenes is having a rather normal year after a few tough starts. He's got a 3.10 ERA, a 6-7 record and 114 Ks, which are good numbers for most pitchers but pedestrian for Skenes. If this is what a down year looks like for the big man, I guess I'll take it. Good news is that Braxton Ashcraft's stepped up his a-game behind Skenes, and has a 7-3 record, a 3.07 ERA and 107 Ks. Skenes still has the lower WHIP but Ashcraft's arguably having the more dominant season right now...which is kind of insane to say out loud. Chandler, Keller and Jones are coming around, they've got higher ERAs than they need but are still capable of nice starts. Bullpen's still a little messy but Gregory Soto's actually a pretty decent option in the ninth now.

The Pirates are at .500, and they need to win some games against the Reds to maintain what little leverage they still have. Cause then they've gotta go to Philly, and that'll be interesting for sure.

Coming Tomorrow- After a few years of partial use, bullpen use and general misuse, a guy who's striking out just about everybody as a way of trying to get out of Anaheim.

A 2nd, a 6th and a Last

 

I was on a call with someone yesterday. Oh yeah, two brief life updates- 1, I'm on the precipice of a new job, that'll likely pan out and I'll be able to regularly buy cards again other than TCDB stuff. 2, I'm on the precipice of a new laptop, cause the new job requires a software my current laptop's physically unable to take on, so this is the last post being written by ol' faithful, which I got in July 2017, also on the precipice of a new job actually. This laptop has served me very well, and owes me nothing, other than like...the ability to take on iOS 15.6. So hopefully today I'll be moving onto laptop #3, probably a similar make and model to laptops 1 and 2. I look forward to writing posts and making customs on it.

But to backtrack, I was on a call with the guy who's giving me this job potentially [it's looking very good and if I do this project as well as I think I will, it's mine], and I emphasized that I use social media mainly to talk about my own idiosyncrasies, as well as baseball. And we talked baseball for a little bit. His team is the Royals. And he's at a point where they could be selling or could be on the way back up. So it's a moment of indistinct haze. 

And I just said 'well how about this Caglianone kid, right?'. And that made him a little more hopeful.

It's weird that a team that already had Bobby Witt Jr., and Salvy Perez in that matter, needed a Jac Caglianone, but here he is, saving the team once again. Cags is 23, and has the confidence and full MLB attitude that he lacked in a call-up last year. And right now he and Witt sit at the top of the team leaderboard together, as intended. Caglianone is hitting .268 with an .822 OPS, 30 RBIs and 14 homers, which is the most on the team. Kinda wild that a team with Bobby Witt Jr. and two power-hitting catchers has someone else leading in homers, but it SHOULD be Caglianone. He's just a really reliable all-around hitter, and him coming to prominence is a very good thing for this Royals team.

Especially considering all those huge injuries that have hit, essentially all at once. Maikel Garcia, Cole Ragans, Kyle Isbel, Vinnie Pasquantino, Kris Bubic, Carlos Estevez, Jonathan India and Alec Marsh are all hurt. That is a huge chunk of the 2024 playoff team, and a huge chunk of the team's WAR total since Quatraro took over. So it's really no wonder they're in last, the whole backbone's been taken away. They're plugging in what they can to make it look passable, guys like Luinder Avila, Nick Lofton, Lane Thomas, Kameron Misner and Josh Rojas, and they're all very clearly replacement level. Rojas is a decent third base substitution but he's no Maikel Garcia. They have Lucas Erceg manning the ninth for Estevez and it really isn't working out. At the very least, Carter Jensen's excellent behind the plate now, Michael Massey's heating up again at 2nd and Stephen Kolek is still a pretty nice low-rotation option. But you can tell they're trying to cover up some massive holes.

I don't think the Royals are gonna sell TOO much. Wacha or Lugo could go but I don't think they both will. The big pieces are either on rookie contracts or on real long ones. Maybe an Erceg or a Schreiber gets dealt. Who knows. They will recover, they just need even more good young options than what made them a force in 2024, which sounds like a lot. But I look at Cags and it doesn't look that far away.

Coming Tonight [?]: Right when everyone was wondering if he was still an elite hitter, here he comes with his best season at the plate in years. 

A Breakout Within a Breakout

 

So. To give you an idea. Last week the story was the surprise blowup of the Washington Nationals, a full lineup effort based on outhitting you no matter who you are, and they were gaining serious traction in the NL East. Then the Phillies series happened. As good as that Nats team is, their bullpen could not withstand this Phils team, and they blew all three games in the ninth. Many times to Derek Hill. And so now...the Nats are in fourth.

...leaving the Marlins, ANOTHER surprise breakout NL East team, to take third. And...they might have something cooking here.

The Marlins are 16-5 in June, they have the best home record in baseball, and they have a lineup full of young fun contact hitters. Edwards and Lopez have ruled this season, along with Liam Hicks, but a lot of peskier seasons are coming out of the woodwork this month. Heriberto Hernandez is a simple contact bat with no real defensive help, but he's been really on target lately, hitting .274 this month with 6 homers and 11 RBIs. Joe Mack has emerged as a viable catching option in the wake of Hicks' injury and Agustin Ramirez's demotion, he's got a .723 OPS and 18 RBIs in 38 games. Unlike the last bevy of catching options in Miami, Mack looks like he could be a foundational catching piece in addition to a steady bat who can catch. After a few weak seasons in between, Esteury Ruiz has gone back into his old role with the A's, as a decent contact bat with tons of steals. He's got a .897 OPS in 74 at-bats, which I was not expecting.

The thing about this Marlins team is you'd expect cheesy power, and there is some of that...it's just not pretty. Kyle Stowers is not as good as he was last year, and he's only got 8 homers and 29 RBIs through 57 games. Owen Caissie has 9 homers and 43 RBIs, but it's not pretty, and he strikes out way too much for that low hit total. Marsee ain't doing much better. Connor Norby got sent down due to how cold he's been hitting, so now Kyle Stowers is picking up more at-bats at first, and that's...sort of working. Him and Sanoja I guess. This isn't really a home run team, which is wild considering what last year was foreshadowing, but the contact game is so good that it's keeping them in the race.

Also very happy with this bullpen. The Blue Jays like to throw around the 'team of uncommon men' thing but look at these weirdoes! Lake Bachar and his swamp aftertaste coming in and striking you out. John King having a bounce back season after flunking out of St. Louis last year. Michael Petersen, a 32-year-old up and comer from Essex with a 3.18 ERA. Anthony Bender is continuing his run as the Marlins' best relief asset this decade. Tyler Phillips is now opening games and it's still working out. Even Fairbanks is beginning to loosen up and actually nail saves. The rotation is imperfect but the bullpen is ensuring the team can win close games.

Does this Marlins team have legs? Maybe? Maybe they can spin this into a low-key playoff team. They're kinda close, and there's less general mess than usual. There's still a lot of competition in the NL Central, and they already have to contend with a strong Phils team. It can be done, but it's gonna take even more long-term work from these hitters, like Hernandez, having a great June.

Coming Tomorrow- He came up right when the team, which was a playoff competitor, was trending downward. Can he do anything to stop that??

Elias Actually Did Something

 

It feels so obvious but for a team that just doesn't take on new contracts or players very often, it seems like the revelation of the century. If you bring in a bunch of players that can help the team...they will help the team win. It may not look like much from 4th, but I am telling you that this team is way better than it was without Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Leody Taveras, Blaze Alexander or Shane Baz. Last year, all Mike Elias added to the Orioles were three contracts that were unloaded by July [Morton, Kittredge and Laureano] and Tyler O'Neill, who's kinda sucked here. Now we actually have talented people in their prime delivering in Baltimore. What a difference that makes.

So, let's talk about Taylor Ward. He was traded for Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez is once again hurt and trying to pitch through it. It's not going well. Ward, meanwhile, is doing exactly what he did in Anaheim. He's leading the O's in doubles with 18, he's hitting .257 and has 5 homers and 22 RBIs, and he's still excellent out in left. That kind of bat, even behind Rutschman, Henderson, Basallo and Cowser, is still pretty valuable and varies the brunt of the offense. I dunno if we're gonna get to where we were in 2016, wall-to-wall unbeatable no matter how far down you get, but this is already looking good, even with Alexander, Taveras and Jackson bringing up the rear.

And then there's Pete Alonso, who's overcome a slow start to continue his run as one of the most consistent power hitters in the game. He's got an .815 OPS, a .474 SLG, 55 RBIs and, yes, 18 homers, on the way to what could be another 30+ homer year [which would be #7 if it happens, in...yeah, 8 seasons]. He's got a decent chance of making 300 homers this year if he doubles his current total, and there's still room for him to continue this standard of power hitting as a Baltimore Oriole. Early on they wanted to really push this narrative of 'well is this contract gonna be a mistake for Baltimore', and...no, not really. He's still Pete Alonso. Doesn't miss a game, gives his all, hits for power like no one else even on a down year. Chris Davis isn't this guy.

The O's could use some better stuff from their established talent though. Trevor Rogers seems to be on again, and he needs to stay on. Kyle Bradish and Brandon Young have been pretty much but the full rotation still isn't all the way terrific yet, and part of that is just how okay Shane Baz has been [he's 4-8]. Zach Elfin, Cade Povich and Des Kremer have been little-to-no help due to injuries, and usual bullpen mainstays Keegan Akin and Andrew Kittredge have been struggling mightily. The preexisting core needs to supplant the new guys, so that it all might be worth it. And the Orioles have had some very nice stretches, but it's all too inconsistent this year, which is too bad.

There's still time to turn things around, and there's still enough elements working that you can't completely count them out. I'm just thankful the new moves paid off. Let that be a lesson to you, Mike. You can too build a worthy team.

Coming Tonight: The Marlins are somehow still over .500 and have one of the best home records in baseball, and this guy has certainly helped this month.