Fred Over Heels

 

Realistically, there probably aren't going to be a lot of new members of the 3000 hit club in the next decade or so. The time of people shooting for 200 hits instead of 50 homers and 200 strikeouts is over, and it's made it difficult for career hits totals to keep stacking up over time. Pujols, Ichiro and Cabrera got past the mark because the 2000s still valued contact hitting. Freddie Freeman has over 2500 hits, and is theoretically young enough, and in enough of a peak period, to cross that threshold. But he's also 36, and he only has one more year on his contract. Plus, even if he doesn't get to 3000 hits, Freeman's still a Hall of Famer. It's obvious now, and the 2024 World Series cemented that case. The 3000th hit would just be frosting rather than the key to entry.

This mostly says a lot about just how great Freddie Freeman's been for his whole career. There's only one season in sixteen full ones that ended with a WAR total lower than 2, and that was Freeman's 2011 rookie campaign, where he hit 21 homers with 76 RBIs and a .282 average. Literally every other season has been a 2 or higher WAR, with five seasons reaching 5 WAR or higher. Every season since 2013, Freeman's sported an .800 OPS or higher, and his lowest batting average in this period was a .276 average in 2015. Freeman is classic in the sense that in an era where nobody really has a reason to hit .300, he consistently does so and in a way that really helps whatever team he's on. The Dodgers picking him up in 2022 really was perfectly timed, and since then Freeman's continued to give his absolute all, with four straight All-Star Game nominations [followed swiftly by a fifth very shortly]. Where many people figured Freeman would start trailing off, he's stayed consistent, and is still a very crucial piece of the Dodgers' offensive output.

Right now, Freeman has a .293 average, 13 homers, 46 RBIs and a 2.6 WAR. Which is very good. And yet because this team has Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages and Max Muncy on it, it may look comparatively pedestrian. Pages is having an incredible year, with a league-leading 60 RBIs. Ohtani's got 18 homers and 50 RBIs, and he's going 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA in addition. Muncy's got 17 homers and 37 RBIs, and might be starting an ASG along with Freeman. That's your core, that's your central guys...and that doesn't even include Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker, who are both having down years, Will Smith, who's hurt, or Teoscar Hernandez, who was just activated from the IL. The team is that good, and Freeman is both crucial and taken for granted at the same time.

Not a ton of flaws from this Dodgers team recently. Maybe Sheehan and Sasaki could be doing a little better, but when the top 3 are Ohtani, Yamamoto and Wrobleski, and Eric Lauer's hanging out as a very sharp 6th guy, it's not the biggest issue. 

The Dodgers have to play the Padres this weekend. If you've been around the last few years, you know what this means. The Padres are 12 games behind LA this time, so it's not like a 'if they sweep, they take the division' situation like the last few Padres-Dodgers series'. Basically, every time the Padres are getting good, they have to play the Dodgers and can't capitalize. But here the Padres have nothing to capitalize on so maybe they'll actually win.

Coming Tonight: Shane McClanahan, I'm sorry, but you might not be the ace in Tampa anymore. That is, unless the Rays decide to trade this guy very soon.

The Six-Man Formation

 

In 2024, the Mariners had Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo healthy and thriving, Bryan Woo activated midyear and surging, and Emerson Hancock hanging around not pitching well. In 2025, Gilbert, Kirby and Miller were tired, with Miller showing up late for some terrific postseason starts, Castillo was healthy all year, Woo was healthy all year, and Hancock was once again shaky. So now, this year...everybody's healthy. Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, Castillo, Miller and Hancock, all healthy, all aiding the team. Which means we've got a six man rotation where virtually any of them can be relied upon for a great start...in addition to an offense that isn't afraid to go nuts. It may not show immediately because of their rough June, but...the Mariners have more going on than usual right now.

Right now it's really only Castillo who's having a poor year, and even then it'll still come with an occasional dominant start that's vintage Castillo. He's still 33 and a little worse for wear but at the end of the day he's still Luis Castillo. Everybody else is on point. Logan Gilbert is once again coming off like a true ace, with a 1.010 WHIP, a 3.42 ERA, 107 Ks and a 2.2 WAR. The dominance that has kept him at the forefront of this team has persisted, and Gilbert is still one of the most consistent pitching forces in the league. Getting to see what 'good' Emerson Hancock looks like has also been a highlight of this season, and he's got a 3.47 ERA with 87 Ks. Bryce Miller has been excellent since coming off the IL, he has a 1.97 ERA, a 0.723 WHIP and a 1.9 WAR in 8 games. This is exactly what he was doing in the playoffs last year, and it's all he's after now. Woo and Kirby have been a little more pedestrian but they're still steady, reliable options that just have higher ERAs than expected. But nobody's getting pushed out there to eat innings, it's not a 'draw straws' kind of rotation like Colorado's. That's why there's six guys in that rotation, they're all excellent and even if Castillo has to do long relief every so often, he can still swing back in and dominate from the jump.

The team itself however has been struggling of late, and are currently fighting to stay atop the AL West thanks to both a rough couple weeks and a recent surge from the Rangers. They've lost a lot of series' against people they could have beaten, teams like the Orioles, Nationals, Red Sox, Guardians and Pirates. Not only is Josh Naylor not really hitting that well, but he's beginning to get a poor reputation. This after he brought so much joy to this fanbase last year is a very sharp turn of events. Luke Raley and J.P. Crawford had nice starts but have both gone very cold. And Cal Raleigh...he's still not hitting, and the worry that he hit his ceiling last year is about to emerge. Or maybe the fear that they traded away Harry Ford prematurely.

I still think the Mariners are the best team in this division, and they still have the leverage even if the Rangers threaten from behind. Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Cole Young and Logan Gilbert are all at the top of their games, and the Rangers don't have near as much going for them at the moment. We'll see what happens after the ASG break.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy with a very good chance of starting the All-Star Game at 1st for the NL for...well, certainly not the first time. 

Enclosed with a High Ceiling

 

So, to recap. At the MLB level right now, the Milwaukee Brewers currently have, up and thriving, Jackson Chourio, Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison, Brandon Sproat, Brice Turang, Cooper Pratt, Shane Drohan and Logan Henderson. And then waiting in the minors, they have Jett Williams, Jesus Madé, Jeferson Quero, Luis Pena and Luis Lara. And remember, right now, with all those great players still waiting, they are a 1st place team with one of the best records in baseball and the second-most wins of anyone. For a rebuilding team, they could not be doing better.

And again, last year when people kept referring to the Brewers as a 'rebuilding team', despite the fact that they'd just made the NLCS and were expected to compete again, I had faith they'd be doing something like this. The signs were there. Obviously flipping Freddy Peralta, Caleb Durbin and Isaac Collins for prospects was a cost-saving measure that was meant to lower the payroll, but the windfall they got in return was enough to keep them competitive. They got David Hamilton, Kyle Harrison, Brandon Sproat, Jett Williams and Angel Zerpa for those guys, and those have been very crucial organizational pieces this year. So I fully predicted they'd be a league power this year, and of course they are.

It was mostly the marquee guy above that pointed me towards that. Jackson Chourio is 22, a 3-year vet, and already one of the most reliable hitters in Milwaukee. Even with a month removed, he's still a serious piece of this team, hitting .291 with an .863 OPS, 11 homers and 31 RBIs. In just 48 games. If there was any justice, Chourio would be an all-star this year. I'm not sure if it's going to happen, though someone will need to replace Acuña if he makes it on, and it might have to be him. This guy feels way older than 22, and hits like a season veteran even this early on. He's great in the outfield, he's great hitting for contact, he's a great power bat, his base stealing is down a little from last year but he's still capable. I know Yelich still exists, between injuries, but Chourio is the kind of guy a team can be based around, and he really does offer a lot of hope to this team, who got so close last year but were trounced by LA.

Chourio, Turang, Contreras, Bauers and Vaughn make up a truly powerful core, and Cooper Pratt is juuust figuring things out as well, with 8 hits and 2 RBIs in 13 at-bats. You're also seeing production from Shane Drohan, who's being handed more starts and has made the most of his last few opportunities. Harrison's getting his ERA back down after Vegas, Sproat's trying to balance things out, Miz is still killing it, and Woodruff's been working a clinic as well. I do worry a bit about the number of pitching prospects the Brewers have tried this year that haven't especially worked [Craig Yoho, Coleman Crow, Carlos Rodriguez, Brian Fitzpatrick], but...with everything that has worked, and with how young most of them are, it's likely not worth it. 

I sincerely hope the Brewers can keep this up and hopefully be a match for the Dodgers and other monoliths in the playoffs. Chourio I still get a very good vibe from, much like the rest of this team, and they seem to be after something this year in particular.

Coming Tonight: The Mariners searched for a homegrown ace after Felix Hernandez left. It did not take long for one to show up, but it took a bit for him to fully embrace ace status.

Worst to First in Two Years

 

Believe it. The Chicago White Sox are 1st place in the AL Central, over .500, and have the third-best record in the AL. They have a better record than any team in the AL West. 6 of their starting 9 have a WAR of 1.7 or higher, and the team's top 10 WAR leaders all have WARs of 1.5 or more. Only two members of the lineup are over 30, and they both have either 9 or 10 homers. And it took getting rid of Luis Robert, Garrett Crochet, Lenyn Sosa, Andrew Vaughn, Curtis Mead, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito to get them there.

The team is being led by rookies and second years, and they're winning games. They have Sam Antonacci playing a very crucial contact role and playing left, and he's delivering! 23 years old, no MLB experience, and he's hitting .291 with an .803 OPS and 65 hits in as many games. Like Peters and Meidroth, Antonacci isn't really a power guy, but he's consistently on target and he's able to keep the hits coming. That's an underrated skill that this team is already going all-in on, the contact specialists. It's nice having a Murakami or a Colson Montgomery who can hit homers, but there's serious depth here. Kyle Teel's back, and he has 5 hits and 6 RBIs in 6 games. Tristan Peters is a doubles machine. This team does have 3 guys with over 19 homers, but they're not banking fully on that, which may be why they're a first place team. It's easy for the Guardians to do the sustainable cheap contact thing, but there's way more depth with this Chicago team.

You're also seeing the White Sox combine a 2024-era approach [get two recently-returned KBO/Japanese league exports and plug them in before they become too expensive] with modern thinking [just draft great pitchers]. Anthony Kay and Erick Fedde are here to eat innings mostly, but Fedde's been very good recently when opened for, and Kay still has some tricks left despite all those HBPs. Davis Martin and Sean Burke are the real thing though, and hopefully whatever was troubling Shane Smith clears up soon. It's looking more like a rotation now and less like an array of people who needed a job. Same with the bullpen: Sean Newcomb and Seranthony Dominguez have been plucked into unlikely roles but they're having some nice moments. Newcomb has a 2.54 ERA and is once again proving how smart it was to make him a bullpen guy. Dominguez has kept the closing position and has 12 saves, despite Bryan Hudson arguably giving him a run for his money.

Are the White Sox in the clear, despite this nice run? No, absolutely not. The Guardians just got Chase de Lauter back and are still a very good team. You can also never truly count out the Tigers with their level of talent, or even the Royals. I think there's a chance the White Sox keep this pace up and go for a playoff spot, but I also wonder what this team could do differently from the more tested late-2010s teams, all of which struck out given the chance at playoff supremacy. They have to prove, if they are for real, that they're better than their predecessors. Which will be difficult, but with this many contact hitters it's possible.

Coming Tomorrow: This guy's ceiling has been said to resemble Ronald Acuna's but with more power. He's three years in and all that's missing is the name brand recognition. 

Met Down

 

The big if with this 2026 Mets team is going to be 'if the Mets hadn't spent all that money on veteran lineup presence clogging the depth chart, and didn't think about emphasizing the defensive possibilities of Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco at the corners, or if they hadn't put all that money up to get Juan Soto his own box at CitiField, or if they didn't throw the bank at Sean Manaea after an upswing KNOWING he's an up and down pitcher, or if they hadn't banked on Devin Williams thinking the problem was the Bronx....would the Benge-Ewing-Soto outfield be the talk of the season?'

Obviously the Mets still would have needed to trade Brandon Nimmo to clear the room, and eventually grow tired of Tyrone Taylor, but whatever the circumstances...on a better team this would be a good sign. Soto is still A-tier, and leads the NL in OPS right now with 17 homers and 39 RBIs, somehow pedestrian for Soto. Benge, after a slow April, has sprung into motion, now hitting .257 with 9 homers and 32 RBIs, plus 11 steals. A.J. Ewing, a true rookie at 21, has a .279 average and 19 RBIs in 44 games. Ewing and Benge are looking like the future, a lot like Nimmo and Conforto were for a bit. And if the team were better...more people would be aware of this. But it's like the one good part of this team.

The Phillies series, even with a win snuck in, was still an embarrassment, and brought the team down to 39-50, a really torrid record that not even the departure of Carlos Mendoza could really stop. The idea was for Peralta, McLean and Senga to be an unbeatable three, and they're not. Plain and simple. The ghost fork simply does not work anymore, and everyone knows it. Peralta's not throwing his best stuff, and his ERA's at 4.50. Even McLean, fundamentally a terrific arm, has a 4 ERA and a 4-5 record. Zach Thornton and Jonah Tong tried to right things but aren't there yet. The bullpen is only marginally better, and Weaver, Brazoban and Raley are trying to undo all that Tobias Myers and Devin Williams have done, meaning that the Brewers guys just aren't doing it out of Milwaukee. And Brandon Sproat, for the most part, isn't really having that problem the other way. 

Want a sobering stat? The hitters on this team have a combined 2.8 WAR. If you take Juan Soto out of it, it's 0.2. This team is hitting .231 as well, and I feel like Soto's .300 average is keeping that up. This is not what Soto signed up for. He was told he was gonna be one of many, not just the one. If he'd have known that, he'd still be in left in Yankee Stadium right now, and lord knows where Cody Bellinger would even be.

The goal for the rest of the season might just be for the Mets to remain dignified, which is quite a concept. Cause at least the Red Sox are having a better week than their reputation means. The White Sox are a 1st place team. The A's are competitive. The Mets are what you've heard, and they can only do so much to dispute it. 

Coming Tonight: A rookie for the White Sox stepping into a crucial contact spot at the right time. 

Never Ced

 

So...Yanks-Sox caught us at a weird moment. We were 3-4 since the Reds series started, and now we're 3-6 [I'm writing this before the game last night]. It had been a while since our last cold spell, so we were kind of due, but this is the kind of thing where...we might have accidentally given the Red Sox life. And I'd rather we didn't do that.

The Sox don't have a fully terrific team, especially with Jarren Duran still being a disappointment, but they're creeping up to the O's in the standings and are beginning to scare me a little, like they might be something after all. Early on this season, we were calling Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Payton Tolle disappointments and now they're all having really nice seasons. The rotation looks genuinely excellent right now, across the board. I know how often it feels like it's being tied together with a rubber band, but this is a very compact group of 5 solid hurlers, not weighed down by a guy fighting an injury [sorry Garrett Crochet]. Ranger Suarez is looking Phillies-good, and has a 2.83 ERA with 84 Ks. Connelly Early has something resembling ace numbers, with 7 wins, 88 Ks and a 3.59 ERA. Sonny Gray is 9-1 with his ERA under 2, and barring a lower K total than usual he's looking like his old dominant self, which is very good for a guy that felt like a buyout. Tolle's a terrific leverage guy who kept the Yankees down to only one or two hits the other night. And Jake Bennett's slowly learning the ropes, and has a 3.27 ERA in his first 6 MLB starts. This is a legitimately great rotation that could get even better if Crochet comes back without much difference. The bullpen's a little shaky, but they have Chapman, at least for now. 

It's the lineup that's a bit hazardous, despite the spark keeping it interesting. Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu have remained the steady backbone of this lineup, continually providing excellent lineup support and great everyday defense. Rafaela leads the team in doubles with 18, and has 35 RBIs and 10 steals. Abreu has 10 homers and 38 RBIs, and is having a more traditional power year. Both are integral to this lineup, more than even Duran has been with his .198 lineup and 98 Ks. What's really upsetting is that the young core the team was trying to set up last year is nowhere to be found. Kristian Campbell has yet to make the bigs this year, and both Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony are hurt. As is Trevor Story, as custom. So now we have Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler plugged in playing those roles, and you can kinda tell something's missing. Seigler's batting .300 through 10 games, but I'm not sure how much of a ceiling he has with the Sox. Durbin's doing better than he was but he's still just a .229 hitter, Yoshida's having another down year, Wong is surpassing Narvy again. Barring Rafaela, Abreu and Contreras, there's not really a ton to this lineup. Which is kinda upsetting.

The Sox have the momentum right now, and could use that, and the pitching, to ride up the standings a little and give the top 2 teams some heat. I don't think this means they're a full competitor yet but it means I'm not writing them off as much as I was.

Coming Tonight: He had a big hit on Opening Day, and has remained on the roster long enough to be one of the few people on his team actually hitting. 

A Control Artist in Denver

 

...sounds crazy, no?

Tomoyuki Sugano finding success in the MLB despite not overthrowing or being an especially remarkable athlete is one of those complex stories you only get every so often. Remember, Jefry Yan, who jumps a mile high when he gets an out, will likely never make the bigs, but Sugano, even with his flaws, still stays dominant, even in a slightly different definition of dominance.

Fundamentally, Sugano is not Jacob Misiorowski. He's not even Parker Messick. He doesn't throw hard, he doesn't strike people out, and he doesn't go too deep. Sugano is an arsenal picture who keeps it in the park and goes by efficiency and trickery. He's 36 years old, and his fastball peaked in the 2010s in Japan. What he has left is intelligence and form, and that goes a long way. He's 8-4 so far this year, with a 4.80 ERA and 16 homers allowed. Now, in Denver of course he's gonna allow a lot of home runs, but he allowed 32 last year in Baltimore. Putting a leverage pitcher in Coors Field could be a recipe for disaster [as Michael Lorenzen could tell you], but Sugano keeps winning games and throwing strikes, and he still very much has a job in Denver. Will he get lit up? Yes, sometimes. But he's able to hold the Cubs to 3 runs, or the Pirates to 1 run, or the Reds scoreless. He doesn't get lit up terribly often, and even when he does he still finishes out the start. Just a consistent, steady, reliable guy playing for a team that needs something reliable.

Anyway, the Rockies are once again last in the MLB. Not as embarrassingly as last year, but it's still going pretty poorly. They've found a winning combo with Hunter Goodman and T.J. Rumfield, that's definitely the answer. And Kyle Karros, Willi Castro and Cole Carrigg are making decent progress. Carrigg at least has an .860 OPS in 16 games, and already has 11 RBIs, so there's not a ton of learning curve. Karros there sort of is a learning curve, it's taken him a bit to get going, but he's up to .250 and has decent contact perks, so that's a start. I also credit this team for finding great seasons from Jake McCarthy, Mickey Moniak and Troy Johnston. The rest of the lineup is painfully replacement level, including the once promising Ezequiel Tovar and the still-not-all-the-way-there Jordan Beck. Pitching-wise it's not much better. Feltner, Freeland and Lorenzen are all struggling. Dollander was doing well but got hurt. Sean Sullivan might be a decent rotation option if he played literally anywhere else. The bullpen's actually kinda okay but even Victor Vodnik's having a rough time out there.

It is nice to see success stories and signs of life, but it's still not an especially impressive full team effort, and it's not too much further than last year. Like, again...Tomoyuki Sugano is counted as a major success story here, with his 4.80 ERA. Maybe someday they can have a full squad capable of rising beyond replacement level novelty guys, but until then, that's gonna be what keeps the lights on sadly.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy about to suit up against my Yankees and hopefully this doesn't go as badly for my team as the last two nights.