Caught in the Maize

 

The Minnesota Twins arrived in Iowa for the Field of Dreams game on Thursday night with enthusiasm and vigor, and the desire to play a great ballgame in a hallowed place, for the good of the game. That was the last bit of positivity the Twinsd experienced. They lost three games to the Phillies, a better team but one the Twins could have very easily spoiled, and now they're in fourth place, trailing the Tigers and Guardians and struggling to keep in the race. It certainly looks like the Phillies found themselves in Iowa, and the Twins lost the plot.

The big 'what are we even doing?' moment came during yesterday's game, which was going great for the Twins for a while due to the Phils starting Andrew Painter [due to lack of other options, and thanks again for that Dombrowski]. Brooks Lee hit a grandy, Kody Clemens [the former Phillie] hit a solo shot, it was 5-0 for five innings. Then in the sixth, Luis Arraez got a guy home and Alec Bohm, hot as hell recently, rocketed one out to make it 5-4. Which it remained. And it honestly could have stayed. 

In the eighth, Bohm was up again, with three men on, and hit one to shallow right. Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall congregated towards the ball, as it seemed to skirt the line between foul and fair. Lewis lets it bounce, it lands fair. He tries to grab the ball, it flies right out of his hands, and Keaschall doesn't have the reflexes to stop it from rolling off, so it bonks off his glove, as balls tend to be doing these days. Harper's able to get home on that, tying the game. Three batters later, Bryan de la Cruz smokes a ball through and 2 more runs score, and the Phils' bullpen ensure it doesn't get worse than that.

So...let's examine this. We have Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall collaborating on that play to shallow right. Keaschall is predominantly a second baseman, he's in right because they wanted to start Kody Clemens at second, they already had him in left and Ryan Kreidler at second. Royce Lewis is predominantly used as a third baseman, but Brooks Lee was at third. So you have two guys not playing their primary positions acting like the Keystone Kops out there and bombing the game. I'd understand it if the production was worth it to keep all these guys in the lineup, but Keaschall did nothing at the plate and Lewis got one hit. 

Lewis in general is having a pretty meh season honestly. The novelty of the longballs is done because Lewis stays healthy for longer and hits less homers. He's got 13 homers, 44 RBIs, 11 steals, he's fine. Better in the last month or so than he was before that, but he's not blowing the doors off the place, making him a somewhat limp 1st overall guy. He's still doing what he can, and when the production's on point it's not a problem, but some of his dimensions have been taken away and there's not much to him that other guys can't already bring. The good news is Kaelen Culpepper is up and auditioning for SS for 2027 [?], Keaschall seems to be a lock for the team going forward, Byron Buxton's still elite and the central core is likely sticking around for the most part to build on this going forward. There's the worry that Joe Ryan could leave in free agency, and the knowledge that Ryan Jeffers will, but unless they really start dealing people, which could happen to guys like Wallner and Larnach if they're not careful, I don't see them going full crumple and toss next year if enough of this team can really chase people.

Anyhow, shame about what happened to the Twins this weekend. It could have been avoided. Someday it might get to be avoided.

Coming Tonight: Similar to Lewis, he gets injured, misses a swath of the season and tries to make up for it. This year worked out similarly to the last few for him. 

It's Not Nepotism if it Wins Games

 

The 'second generation player' thing has been a nice development in recent years, but the rarer version of this is seeing a second generation MLBer playing for the same team their father did. Mike Yastrzemski making the bigs was great, but if he was in Sox colors that would have melted brains. We don't always get huge ones, we got Moises Alou as a Giant, briefly, and we now have Ryan Weathers on the Yanks. Both Griffeys playing for the Mariners is really the biggest version of this.

Well...I think we can add the Conines to this category, because Griffin Conine is essentially doing the same thing his father Jeff did for the Marlins, which is clutch hitting and contact hitting the team into the larger conversation.

Griffin Conine, for a while, seemed like one of those 'aw, if only' sorts of stories, because every time he'd get going, he'd get hurt. Last year he was off to a huge start, got hurt and missed the majority of the season. This year it happened again in April. One of the great things about Jeff Conine was that he was always around, always available, and Griffin has been the opposite. But in the past month or so he's been healthy, and so he's gone from a bench bat to the starter in right basically, and he's given this team a heck of a boost. In this period, he's hitting .273 with 11 home runs and 24 RBIs, plus a .916 OPS. He's clobbering the ball at a very similar rate to his dad, and doing it for the team that his dad helped win big. So that's gotta be really cool. Remember, he was chilling in the Blue Jays system for a while until being traded for Jonathan Villar, so it wasn't even a serendipity thing. All of this has fallen into place, and it's happening in a way where Conine can really help this team.

The Marlins, as it stands right now, are right outside the center circle of the wild card conversation, but they're only 3.5 games back and they're above .500. The return of Sandy Alcantara's better numbers, FINALLY, has fueled the recent surge, in addition to the return of Pete Fairbanks' ninth inning dominance, the return of Esteury Ruiz's uncontrollable contact energy and steals, and the return of Owen Caissie's power ability after like 3 months of lying dormant. Otto Lopez continues to be one of the best pure contact hitters in the game, Xavier Edwards continues to be just as effective, and Heriberto Hernandez now leads the team in home runs with 17. Losing Liam Hicks did not wound this team enough because Joe Mack is a perfectly viable catching option and Agustin Ramirez can now hop in at DH. So much has been freed up somehow, and the Marlins seem to keep getting stronger even as improbable as a playoff berth might seem.

The Marlins have to play the Phillies this week, which seems difficult, but the Phillies are desperate and this is the exact kind of series they could mess up. The Marlins could shock the world by competing this year, and it's something that'd be really cool, if slightly impractical.

Coming Tomorrow- Like Conine, a guy that typically gets injured right when he starts hitting. This one's a little more well-known for his longball. 

Where Last Doesn't Mean Bad

 

So here's something fun. Next week I'm gonna be heading to Baltimore for an O's game. We've got family friends that get tickets there, it's been an on and off tradition all my life, perfectly doable because I love Camden Yards. Very cozy. Last time I was busy grabbing Natty Bo's and didn't really pay too much attention to the game, but maybe this time I will. It's looking like we'll be seeing Shane Baz and Nick Martinez pitch, two very nice starters, and it'll be Pete Alonso bobblehead night. So it'll be a really nice time. 

The team itself...obviously they haven't lived up to expectations, but there's still some undeniable spark in them. As evidence, I give you those last two games in Tampa. The Rays are the monolith right now, but the O's are keeping them on their toes.

Brandon Young might be the key to all of this, because last year, on a come-up, he was absolutely awful. Every start he got lit up, gave up 3 or 4 runs and kept losing. He was 0-6 after 10 starts. That 11th start was the kicker, because that's when I think we all realized something really cool might be in there. Young went 8 innings before allowing a hit against the Astros, and looked more dominant than he ever had, getting his first career win. The overextension led to a rough next start and an early end to the season. 

This year, he was essentially given a rotation spot out of camp thanks to Dean Kremer's difficulties. He's fared a lot better for himself, going 9-3 with a 3.33 ERA and 93 Ks in 20 starts. It's not always pretty, but he's way more composed than he was last year, and he feels like a reliable, strong option again, which is very helpful. This rotation also has Kyle Bradish, with another strong ace performance, Trevor Rogers, with some excellent starts in between getting annihilated, Shane Baz, who's pitching better than his numbers might imply, and Chris Bassitt, who just got off the IL and seems to be back to his usual formula of eating innings and keeping runs from scoring. This rotation doesn't have an OMG guy like Corbin Burnes, or a star rookie in the making or anything, but it's a pretty close knit group of guys who just get it done without a ton of ulcers. That's a nice formula. When the bullpen can be that again, we'll talk, but Kittredge and Suarez aren't their usual selves this year, which is a shame.

The good news is that a lot of this lineup, even with the many vacancies, is waking up and taking charge. Jackson Holliday's got 6 homers and 22 RBIs in 70 games, and is quickly making up for lost time. Gunnar Henderson is hot again, with 20 homers and 51 RBIs. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is quickly becoming a fan favorite, he's hitting .258 with 5 homers and 15 RBIs. Tyler O'Neill's picking up steam, with 10 homers and 22 RBIs. And then you have Alonso, who's doing Pete Alonso things, he's got 27 homers and 77 RBIs, on track to hit 300 before the end of the season. Alonso really is a generational power hitter, and it's gotten to the point where the Orioles are leading him off because he's a definite on base guy these days.

I sincerely hope I catch this team on a good night next week. The lack of current catching stability scares me, as does some general uneven roster feels, but this is still a very cool team, and even if they're working from last at the moment, that doesn't mean they're completely out of moves. There's still a surprising amount the Orioles can do, even if they're likely not a playoff team this year. After all, they have a better record than the Mariners, so that's gotta say something..

Coming Tonight: His dad was an RBI machine for the Marlins. And as the prophecy foretold, so is he.

It Doesn't Have to be Pretty

 

The Padres are on an ungodly streak right now chasing the Dodgers. I know I've said this before recently. The Padres always find a way to get good, conveniently around the time the Dodgers start losing games, and then they play each other and nothing happens and the Dodgers still win the division. And that is conveniently how things went the last time the Padres played the Dodgers. Pure momentum killer, Dodgers took 3 games, business as usual. Well...right now the Padres are 8 games behind the Dodgers, which in this run it like being 2 games behind them. The Dodgers have Ohtani cold, a bunch of people hurt, Skubal middling and have lost some key series. The Padres are 18-9 since the all-star break, have their stars finally hitting, and despite so many messy details, are winning games and looking dominant.

To be honest, this is the perfect team for Mason Miller, because the games are gonna be close due to the flickering run support and the eaten-away rotation. They brought in Robbie Ray and Casey Mize to aid the rotation, both have given up far too many runs, especially Mize. Michael King is the only Padres starter with a WAR over 1. Meaning Walker Buehler and Randy Vazquez, despite flirting with dominance, have not been able to keep this team stable. Adrian Morejon has more wins than anyone in the rotation because he seems to be on the mound when the lead changes more than any of the starters, because typically the starters are the reason for the negative lead changes. Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez, Yuki Matsui, and of course Mason Miller, have provided an excellent cushion even if the rotation has sputtered.

And though Fernando Tatis, Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado all had awful starts, they've more than made up for it. It took Tatis 2 months to hit a homer, and now he's got 13 with 56 RBIs and 28 steals, plus a .280 average. A 30/30 year still seems like a long shot, but it's still a decent year for Tatis. Machado is still clearly past his peak, but he's got 23 homers and 70 RBIs, which is certainly a productive power year. And Merrill went from a nothing year to one of the most important ones in San Diego, as his 19 homers and 63 RBIs have been a boost in the last few months. He's still only 23, but the more he sticks around, the closer he's getting to those peak numbers everyone's been so excited about. 

All that and some surprisingly potent bench numbers from two guys named Luis have been fueling the Padres to a clear 2nd place and a definite spot in the postseason conversation. The D-Backs want it just as bad as they do, and have a much better rotation, but they also just lost Ketel Marte. It may be a true foot race between the two teams with only 1 wild card spot to spare, and it's gonna be very close. 

Coming Tomorrow- Last year, on a come up, he was wild with occasional flashes of greatness. This year he's been pretty great all-around.

Kirb Your Enthusiasm

 

The end of the regular season, when I do the 'end of year losing team superlatives', I always have one that's 'most depressing team to talk about every two weeks', and it's usually a really rough last place team or a boring team where I'm saying the same things every time. I would not have predicted at the beginning of this season that the Mariners would be a heavy contender for that superlative this year. But I saw that I needed to write a post about them and I just got this feeling of annoyance, like I'd be trying harder than usual. And like...it's the Mariners! They're supposed to be fun! They're a team I like. THEY WERE JUST IN AN ALCS. And yet...this team is depressing the shit out of me, because if they got their act together they'd be a first place team and it's just not happening. It's like they're refusing to go for it. They have everything in their corner, everything in place, every reinforcement, and they just cannot be arsed. It is infuriating. The Mariners are the Chuck Schumer 'sternly worded letter' of baseball. In lieu of any positive effort with everything on their side, they're just giving up. This is not the AL year to give up. This year you're lucky if you're 3 games above .500. So many teams are just okay that it's maddening that the Mariners can't just make the leap.

It leads me to believe that the 2025 Mariners were as good as they were because of Cal Raleigh. He had the season of the gods last year and tied the entire team together. He struggled early, was hurt, and is still not back at 100%, and he's hitting .159 with 12 homers and 43 RBIs, a genuinely pathetic year from a guy who was on top of the world a year ago. The loss of that presence in this lineup has brought things down several decibels. Josh Naylor is only now getting going, he's finally getting his average above .260 and has 10 homers and 43 RBIs. Brendan Donovan's finally healthy again and trying to salvage a mostly lost season. Arozarena, Young and Rodriguez are having good years but not over the top amazing. Colt Emerson did not work in the majors, so they're going with the next man up, Brock Rodden, hoping he somehow does better than...top prospect Cole Emerson. Even Taylor Ward, who was traded for an outfield advantage, hasn't done a damned thing in Mariners colors yet.

And, like in 2024, it's wasting a wonderful year from the rotation. Gilbert, Miller, Kirby, Emerson and Woo are all having very nice, consistent years and the worry is that when the rest of the team is good next year, they'll all be in varying stages of health because they wasted their A-material on this season. George Kirby has a 3.68 ERA, an 8-9 record, and too many great starts for a year as squandered as this one. Logan Gilbert had another ace-level year, with 152 Ks, a 3.28 ERA and a 3.2 WAR, but he'll be 30 next year, and soon the clock will start ticking. These are some great pitchers, but are their peak years being wasted? And what happens when it's time for Kade Anderson to come up? Who gets sacrificed? 

It's just depressing. This could have been a great team. Arguably it still could be, they could catch fire, the Rangers and Astros are not playoff teams yet, but...as it stands now, the Mariners feel uninspired and limp. They can use this to jumpstart a revolution or they can just give up now. I know which one I'd prefer.

Coming Tomorrow- He had a dismal first half, then last month he started hitting longballs on the regular and now he's giving his team something of a chance.

Kyle Do Anything

 

Alright, we've learned a lot about the Cardinals this week, we've learned they're better than the Phillies but not as good as the Cubs. This is very useful and solves nothing.

The Cardinals are teetering on the brink of a playoff push, and haven't committed but also haven't NOT committed either. They only gave up a few pieces at the deadline, just Lars Nootbaar, Dustin May and Jojo Romero, nobody too crucial, nobody driving the bus. I'd say it was to make room for some guys stuck in the minors but Quinn Mathews and Ryan Fernandez are still held up anyhow. The Cubs loss today went so badly that the Cards are immediately bringing up Joshua Baez, and are hoping he leads the leads the team forward...much like Blaze Jordan and Brycen Mautz and Quinn Mathews....uh, haven't done. 

It's very confusing, because the Cardinals have a lot in place that brought them back to relevance. J.J. Wetherholt is probably winning Rookie of the Year this year, he's terrific defensively and has also managed to hit pretty well, with 16 homers and 45 RBIs. Masyn Winn is still a terrific MLB shortstop, even if offensively he's been down a bit. Alec Burleson's having a terrific year, leading the league in doubles with 30 and very near a 100 RBI season. But beyond that, well...I'm not sure. Ivan Herrera's a nice power bat but he's got limitations, for sure. Jordan Walker WAS having a breakout year but he stopped hitting homers right after winning the Derby, and his strikeouts have really been piling up. Kyle Schwarber was able to snap out of the post-derby hangover, but Walker hasn't yet. Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott are chilling back in Memphis wondering where it all went wrong. After years of Yadier Molina followed by Willson Contreras, they now have Pedro Pages as the everyday, and he's *fine*. 

The rotation, while still very anonymous, is better, because all the people nobody's heard of are at least displaying consistent stats. Kyle Leahy, since June 23rd, has only allowed 7 earned runs and has 4 wins. His season didn't START the greatest, but he's putting something together here as he becomes more and more accustomed to going long. He, Pallante and McGreevy make up an unassuming but strong core, with 3.5 ERAs all around and all starts made. Pallante's having the best technical season of the three, with 12 wins, but all three are great. Even Hunter Dobbins is beginning to come into his own again, he's got his ERA below 3.50 and has been dominant, if unsupported, in his last two starts. 

I personally do not think the Cardinals are a playoff team right now, I think they're more okay than anything. But a lot of their competitors for a wild card spot [Pirates, Marlins, Phils], when given the option to be okay or shit the bed...shit the bed. So all the Cardinals need to do is keep a steady pace and not fall apart, which they're good at. Or just hope nobody they're deadlocked with suddenly takes off.

Coming Tomorrow- A very good pitcher having a very nice year whose team continues to ignore every inclination to seize the moment. 

Max'd Out

 

Two years ago, the Tigers punted at the deadline, giving away Carson Kelly and Jack Flaherty, two very impressive rental pieces. And then a funny thing happened: they caught fire, made the playoffs and chased some great teams, eventually becoming a 1st place contender last year. This year, for the majority of the season the Tigers were a 4th place mainstay with a snakebitten rotation and no real direction, so at the deadline, they punted once again, trading their #1 piece, Tarik Skubal, to the Dodgers, as well as dealing Casey Mize and Jake Rogers. It was an admission that the early-2020s rebuild had failed, and that focusing on the new class of characters [like Kevin McGonigle, Hao-Yu Lee and Troy Melton], would tide them over until their next opportunity.

Then, once again...something very funny happened. They took off.

Since July 28th, around when they dealt Skubal, the Tigers are 10-4. A hair under .500, nearly lapping the Twins for 2nd place...and looking absolutely revitalized, even without Skubal.

The key might have been calling up Max Clark, an organizational darling thought to be the future of the Tigers. Since McGonigle worked so well [a 5.6 WAR as a rookie so far], Clark was a no-brainer, and fit right into center due to Matt Vierling's injury. Since this, they've also lost Riley Greene, meaning the outfield right now is Clark, Ben Malgeri and Zach McKinstry, which is NOT IDEAL. Clark's numbers have softened the blow though, as he's hitting .289 with 1 homer and 7 RBIs, plus some terrific stuff in center. He's a natural with a high ceiling, and his contact game is already pretty nice. If him and McGonigle stick around, the Tigers will be just fine, especially considering that Dillon Dingler also seems to be in it for the long haul, with 26 homers and 80 RBIs. The lack of a pure star like Greene is worrying, but McGonigle, Gleyber Torres, and the suddenly awakening bat of Spencer Torkelson are doing everything they can.

Obviously the area of concern is gonna be the rotation without Mize or Skubal, but Jackson Jobe just got activated and his first start went really well. Beyond that, Troy Melton's still looking like a star with a 7-1 record and a 1.46 ERA, Keider Montero's got a 3.38 ERA and a 1.104 WHIP, and Framber Valdez, though clearly not Astros dominant, has been piling together some decent starts lately, and has a 4.26 ERA with 106 Ks. Hopefully Flaherty returns soon and the worst of this is over. I'm also very hopeful that Verlander can come back at some point, even if he doesn't see October. At the very least, Kenley Jansen hitting 500 saves is a storyline that could tide people over for the rest of the season if JV doesn't come back.

Clearly there's flaws, and clearly some big pieces are now missing, but the spark is there in Detroit, and the Tigers now want it more than they ever did, arguably, with Skubal. I'd love to see them shock the world and wind up in the playoffs, even if the White Sox winning would be equally as exciting.

Coming Tonight: A Cardinals reliever-turned-starter keeping the ship steady as the team heads for uncertain waters.