Patience Occasionally Pays Off

 

The Mariners promoted Colt Emerson a few weeks ago, and Emerson's been taking the majority of reps at third in the wake of yet another Brendan Donovan injury. You can tell the Mariners have faith in Emerson because they traded their other infield prospect, Ben Williamson, to make room for him, and so far that seems to be a good move on their part. Emerson's currently hitting .222 with 6 hits and 4 RBIs in 9 games. It's not immediately showing Emerson's high ceiling numbers, but if the Mariners' gameplan over the last few years has taught us anything, it's that they can afford to wait a little while.

Look at Cole Young, who was honestly inessential in his midyear callup last year. They brought him in to be a better choice at 2nd, he...sort of was, but didn't hit. Now, with another few months under his belt in the majors, he's figured a ton more out, with a more pronounced contact game, complete with 10 doubles and 23 RBIs, and some excellent defense at 2nd. He's been one of the most confident pieces of the lineup thus far, and in a season without Cal Raleigh's better numbers, that's worth a ton. Young wasn't an immediate smash in Seattle, but the Mariners didn't give up on him. Same with Emerson Hancock, who regularly brought up the rear of the five man rotation; Hancock's now a surer, more consistent starter, with a 2.78 ERA and 63 Ks in 11 games. He might honestly have the best line of any of the five right now, which is kinda insane. 

The waiting approach also applies to some of their acquisitions. J.P. Crawford, Dominic Canzone and Victor Robles hadn't completely hit their potential yet when they were traded, yet they've all found pivotal roles in this lineup. Crawford's still a welcome contact hitter, and though he's a little less accurate than usual he's still got 7 home runs. Canzone is the fun bench/DH bat whose power boosts have been welcome this year. Robles is still a great help defensively in the outfield, and he can hit .300 to boot. I'd even through Luke Raley in this category, because the Rays didn't get a ton of use out of him but in Seattle he's become one of the most reliable sources of power. Dude's got 11 home runs so far. 

The inverse of this is the guys the Mariners lose their patience with typically don't have a ton left afterwards. Kyle Lewis's peak WAS in Seattle, and after that season he barely touched the majors. Jarred Kelenic just got DFA'd by Chicago, proving the Mariners were right to give up on him. Easton McGee also hasn't really recovered from the injury he suffered right after his Mariners debut. They just seem to know when to pull the trigger and when to hold off.

Thanks to a strong series against the A's, the Mariners are momentarily back in first and hoping to build on the narrow lead. They've got Julio hitting, the rotation's looking surer than before and the wins are coming more frequently than they were in April. I think they can hold this for a little while, but the amount of time it took them to get here is slightly concerning. 

Coming Tonight: I was reminded the other day that this guy's been in the majors for nine years now. It's no less wild than it was in 2018. 

A Matter of Thrust

 

2026 has seen a lot of potential purveyors of 'new school' MLB thinking, guys like Blake Butera and Tony Vitello who have a younger, more advanced approach to building a winning team. And you hope that there can finally be a new breed of five-steps-ahead manager who can revolutionize how people think about running a team. I think about what Stephen Vogt's done in Cleveland, and how he's turned that team into a run production machine. Kevin Cash counts, all the analytics is driving the bus rather than contracts. Perhaps Darren McCaughan also fits. 

But one of the main reasons I want there to be a new breed of managers is because there's still a handful of them who are living too far in the past. I thought getting rid of Tony LaRussa was gonna help this. Now I'm fearing there's still some of this 'pro-decorum' energy about.

The Giants, for reference, have this outfield thrust they do when they win games. And it's Harrison Bader, Jung Hoo Lee and Drew Gilbert mostly, they do this hug-thrust thing when they win. Tony Vitello seems to be fine with it. Let 'em have fun. Well, Abner Uribe of the Brewers does this triple-crotch thing when he strikes out the side the other day, and it's full on reliever dominance stuff. And then after the game, Pat Murphy's going 'well, that's not how we do things here'. 

I can never tell where the line's gonna be with these guys. It's just a thrust, it's not like he assaulted someone, and even then he'd probably keep his job anyway. Pat Murphy's doing the whole 'this is the way things are done' schtick that I hated when LaRussa did it. And it's not like Murphy's comparable to LaRussa in that many other ways. Murph was taking pancakes out of his pocket last year. How is that 'the way things ought to be done'?? I'm pretty sure they're meant to go on a plate. I dunno what upscale restaurant Pat Murphy's going to, where the waiters put the pancakes directly in your pockets, but if that's The Way We Do Things Round Here than why not get silly and go 'your mum' when you strike a guy out, or whatever the hell Uribe's doing? Who's he hurting? 

So now you're gonna have Abner Uribe out there, stock serious at gunpoint, afraid to have fun. This is what got Yermin Mercedes run out of the leave, cause some old codger with a superiority complex told him The Way Things Are Meant to Be Done, regardless of any, ahem, difference in background or heritage. Carlos Estevez does the 'I am about to pulverize you like the man from the anime' stance every time he notches a save- nobody starts a shit-fit. He's not literally going 'I am going to pulverize you', just like Abner Uribe isn't actually saying he's gonna perform any lewd acts on anybody. The Way Things Ought to Be Done is just a gatekeeping tool men of a certain generation use to prevent anyone from reaching their level of success. Pat Murphy's committed to a lot of new school tactics, but this could be costly.

And it takes the sting out of a really excited, and varied, Brewers team, succeeding as very few [including me] knew they would. Losing Freddy Peralta hurt, but Miz and Harrison have been incredible, and have instilled a rotation stability that many thought was still a few years away. And yes, Logan Henderson's hurt again, but look at Coleman Crow filling in for him. They're being VERY careful with his service time, but he's succeeding at the MLB level. The team is hitting, and William Contreras is hitting .308 with 33 RBIs, which is a very strong stat for a catcher. Turang, Bauers, Chourio, Yelich and Mitchell are all following behind. And when not being yelled at by a manager, Abner Uribe's working out in the ninth, with 5 saves already. The interesting bit about this team is how many former starting options, like Aaron Ashby, D.L. Hall, Carlos Rodriguez and Shane Drohan, are working better as relief pieces than they would have been otherwise. A variation on the Dodgers' 'whatever you do don't hand the ball to a reliever' strategy from last fall [which has subsided to reveal a pretty fantastic bullpen actually].

The Brewers are a great team hitting their stride. The last thing they need is random decorum BS to bring them down, much like the 2021 White Sox were brought down by theirs. Hopefully good prevails here.

Coming Tomorrow- In 2025, the reaction to his presence in the Mariners' lineup was '...you're absolutely right, Leo Rivas IS the better option'. Now, he's finally delivering what he was supposed to. 

Mass Production

 

The modern Guardians teams, with their contact-first, contracts-later approach, always have this way of surprising me. I can never tell who's gonna be the guy that takes over and picks up the brunt of the work. If you'll remember, Jose Ramirez was like that, he went from a guy who was taking some reps at third to a powerful contact hitter to someone who will retire as a Cleveland Guardian and get a statue at the Jake. Brayan Rocchio was like that, he became an infield standout, then stunk for a year and is now a true standout again. This is just what they do.

On a team featuring Jose Ramirez, Rhys Hoskins, Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter and Kyle Manzardo, the guy who leads the Guardians in home runs is Angel Martinez, a left-fielder in the midst of a breakout season, with 9 long balls and 27 RBIs. Right now Martinez has a higher OPS than Ramirez, and though his last week has been a bit slower, he's still an exciting, productive player. 

And the great thing about this team is that if someone like Martinez is slowing down, someone else can pick back up. Recently Daniel Schneemann has been getting hot, and he's been making some incredible leaping catches in the outfield. Kyle Manzardo's power numbers have slowly picking up, and he's been given more prime moments to shine. Rhys Hoskins has 5 homers, including one against his former team. And the biggest revelation of the season so far has been Travis Bazzana, the former #1 overall pick who's taken to the bigs with ease, hitting .292 with 3 homers, 10 RBIs and 7 stolen bases in his first 25 games. If this is the degree of excellence we can expect from the 23-year-old as he continues in the majors, the Guardians are gonna be fine.

That's very much the theme of this season, as even if they lose people, and even if they can't contend financially with the Tigers and Royals, they have the infrastructure to outlast everybody. Gavin Williams, Parker Messick, Joey Cantillo and Tanner Bibee are a very formidable core rotation foursome, with each bringing something very important to the table. Williams is having the best overall season, and he completely shut down the Phils the other night, but Messick might be the most dominant pitcher, with his expert pitch placement and low-speed craftsmanship. And Cade Smith happens to lead the league in saves with 18, despite a few of the issues that plagued him last year still persisting. 

This is an extremely good-looking Guardians team, with so many failsafes baked in and so many elements working. Undeniably they're one of the top two teams in the AL right now, and definitely one of the best teams in baseball, and they're doing this without breaking the bank or breaking the game. I'm not saying I need a Guardians-Dodgers World Series to make the point clear, but it'd be way more fun than a Rays-Dodgers Series.

Coming Tonight: If the Braves don't give up on this guy, they don't get Drake Baldwin. Or...maybe they just don't get his defensive catching numbers.

Juan Down...

 

Juan Soto really got sent out of Washington on a rail, got out of San Diego before they downturned, went to one World Series with the Yankees and decided that his best way of getting another championship ring would be...signing with the Mets. 

...who missed the playoffs last year and are now last in the NL East and divebombing further. That suite's gotta be nice though, right?

Here is the sad truth about this Mets team right now: Lindor, Robert, Alvarez and Polanco are hurt, as are Holmes and Senga. Bichette and Semien have been disappointments on many levels, Vientos is struggling, and we're already into 'operation bring up more rookies'. A.J. Ewing, Nick Morabito, Carson Benge and Jonah Tong are getting a ton of playing time. The Mets tried this strategy last year, only it was around August. That we're already trying 'just bring up the rookies' IN MAY...that's not a good sign.

All of this to say that the only thing on this team that's anywhere near as-advertised is Juan Soto. He's hitting .294 with 10 homers and 21 RBIs, he's missed some time due to little stuff but is still very much the beating heart of this lineup. I can already tell you that this is not what Soto wanted. He wanted to be part of a like-minded unit that could build each other up and work together to be the best. You know, like the 2019 Nationals. Trouble is, the 2019 Nationals weren't bought, they were built over time. Contracts did help, yes, like Scherzer and Strasburg, but the key figures were homegrown. Rendon, Soto, Turner, Zim, Robles, etc. This team, it's almost all contracts, and they're almost all struggling. The homegrown elements are trying to take the team back, but they're either not well-established yet or they're hurt. Francisco Alvarez has been in position to get going for YEARS, and he keeps getting hurt the moment it would be most appropriate. Luis Robert finally has an opportunity to do well for a competitor, and he immediately gets hurt. 

And so the 2026 Mets right now are leading with Soto, Bichette...Luis Torrens, M.J. Melendez, Brett Baty and A.J. Ewing. Not what was advertised.

Even the rotation feels a little like a cheap compromise. Nolan McLean's doing the best he can, but he's not Jacob deGrom; even with 75 Ks and a 1.092 WHIP, he's got a 4.40 ERA and 30 earned runs in 62 innings. Freddy Peralta's got a 3.52 ERA, much higher than anticipated, and is more human than ever. Peterson's back to how he was, with a 5 ERA and some bullpen-relegated stretches. Clay Holmes WAS doing a bang-up job, but then he got hurt and no one knows when he'll be back. It's just a weak effort from people who were in position to really deliver something.

And yes, it is only May, and great teams have come back from worse. But the Mets have often built something in June and lost it two months later. If they already look lost now, how likely is it for them to find themselves by September? Yes, 2024 happened, but there was arguably more setup to that run than what would be a spontaneous flip of the switch for this year. It's still technically possible, but they need to collectively decide to control the narrative and end this disaster. Because Juan Soto's gonna be a Met for the next decade or so, and if this is how things are starting out...he may want to try a different market.

Coming Tomorrow- The Guardians' wheel of contact player development has landed on this guy, and now he's become a fun breakout in a season chock full of them in Cleveland.

That's One Way to Debut

 

Imagine, for a second, that you have just been called up to the major leagues. The day you are up with the team, ready to debut out of the bullpen, your team is no-hitting the Texas Rangers. Keep in mind, the already came close to doing this earlier this month, Spencer Arrighetti had something going, but it didn't work out. Now a much less trustworthy pitcher's gone 6 strong, handed it to Steven Okert who went 1 strong...and now they are handing the ball to you. Your debut appearance will be attempting to complete a combined no-hitter in not only the away team's park...but the cross-state rival's park. So if you mess this up, it could haunt you for the rest of your life.

This was the conundrum put upon Alimber Santa last night in Arlington. 7 no-hit innings, now here you go. And then after 1 inning, the pitching coach tells you to stay out there. Josh Hader's still hurt, Bryan Abreu's not trustworthy, you're it. So now you have to face the top of the order in the bottom of the ninth and hope you get out of there with your dignity intact. 

Damn if Santa didn't handle it like a pro. 2 innings, 6 batters, all retired. And thus he gets to be the hero in his first MLB game ever. That's incredible. It's great for Tatsuya Imai, finally getting the hang of things over here, and for the oft-injured Okert, but Alimber Santa had to feel over the moon. This is the Astros in a nutshell, it's a well-oiled machine, and the people coming up, whoever they are, can probably inherit it. 

Obviously it's a little bit funny how Houston's still the no-no capital of baseball. They tried to stat twist, 'this is their first no-hitter since 2024'. Here's what you should have said. 'The Houston Astros have had a no-hitter in every season since 2022, except for 2025. They've had FIVE no-hitters in the past five seasons, one of them in the World Series. Hell, Christian Vasquez, who caught this one...he'd caught one BEFORE for the Astros! He caught the one in Game 4 of the World Series! So this isn't even new to him! 

Five no-hitters in 5 years- the Blue Jays haven't even thrown one since 1990! The Guardians haven't thrown one since 1981! Parker Messick got painstakingly close recently, and losing that one hurt. Don't give me that 'first since 2024' bullshit. 

It's very cool that this happened, and it's even cooler for Imai and Santa to be a part of this so early in their MLB careers. I'd love for some teams other than the Astros to figure out how to go all 9 without a hit. Cause without the Santa stat, it's hard to get excited about another Astros no-hitter. 

A Lot Changes in Ten Years

 

In 2016, Willson Contreras was called up to act as an alternative to Miguel Montero behind the plate, at least on days where David Ross wasn't catching for Jon Lester. It was, in actuality, the last necessary piece to cement a lineup that would propel the Cubs to a World Series, one they would FINALLY win. Contreras used that season as a starting point, and eventually became one of the best hitting catchers in baseball, retaining his dignity until 2022, and eventually leaving to play for the division rivals in St. Louis. 

Now, Contreras has a different role, as first baseman on a team vastly different from the 2016 Cubs. The 2026 Red Sox do have a lot of great young players, and a lineup on the verge of greatness...but they're still a last place team, and they're still relying on Contreras's offense as a main asset rather than as one of many standouts. In 2016, Contreras could be a cog in a machine and let Rizzo, Bryant, Fowler, Schwarber and Baez have heroic moments. Now, when Anthony, Mayer, Duran and Yoshida don't have things rolling, it's up to Contreras more often than not. The balance has shifted. 

I thought it was really cool earlier this month, though, to see Willson Contreras reunited with Jon Lester, as the latter was inducted into Sox Hall of Fame. Lester in 2016 was the ten year veteran, the World Series winner, the ace coming to town to jumpstart a new regime. Lester had all the respect in the world when he came to Chicago, and he wanted to win that third ring with a new team. And so it would be done. Now, Willson is the ten year veteran coming to town in an effort to jumpstart something. And so it was really fitting that Contreras got to give a hug to Lester after his ceremony. The passing of the mantle, as it was.

Contreras is currently hitting .281 with 11 home runs and 33 RBIs, pretty exceptional power numbers for the big guy. His OPS is .899, the best in Boston currently. And while it might not be the most exceptional season by a member of the Contreras family, Willson's is a very sure and confident barrage of power, surer than he's been since 2019. Now, as a first baseman, he can appear in more games, and last year he came the closest to 100 RBIs of any season thus far, with 80. He's never had a 25 homer year, which is kind of insane, and perhaps this is the year that changes.

The Sox themselves are still struggling to live up to expectations. The young kids, Early and Tolle, are making up a lot of ground that Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello should have covered by now. Jarren Duran's still hitting .193, and if you can believe it, Caleb Durbin's hitting worse. Story's 2025 resurgence may have been a one-off. It's not a terribly engaging team, and yesterday I saw my first 'where Aroldis Chapman might be heading this July' article. Having Contreras is certainly better than the alternative, but hopefully he stays long enough to not have to be as essential as he is right now. 

Coming Tonight: Speaking of people who really shouldn't be as essential as they are right now, for teams that shouldn't be as bad as they are right now, a guy making more money than you, and for good reason.

The Latent #1

 

Ooooh, I bet you thought that just because they restructured the draft lottery rules, that meant that the Rockies wouldn't have a #1 overall guy surfacing this year. Think again! They've got Mickey Moniak. True, THEY didn't draft him first overall [the Phillies did], but it's better than nothing.

And yes, as far as 1st overall picks go, Mickey Moniak is around the mid-to-bottom tier, and he knows it. Not the absolute bottom, because...Brady Aiken and Mark Appel and Bryan Bullington exist, but he's entered into the tier of 'letdown that's still capable of a late-20s surge. You saw what happened with Tim Beckham out of nowhere, how he started hitting homers with Baltimore. And how Matt Bush crashed out then eventually became a likable relief option with the Rangers. Even guys like Phil Nevin, Adrian Gonzalez, Kris Benson and, yes, Josh Hamilton needed to set the expectations a bit before they had their breakouts. 

Not everyone is gonna be like Griffey or Strasburg and Skenes and be incredible right from the start. Sometimes you get a Mickey Moniak, who takes an extra three years to develop, gets hurt the second he has a shot with the team that drafted him, is traded for a rental the same day that team gets a centerfielder they actually CAN trust [from the same team!!], dries out in mediocrity for a year, gets cut, winds up playing for the worst team in the league AND THEN, SUDDENLY, BECOMES GOOD. Make 'em work for it!

Moniak, though sidelined for a little bit with an injury, has surfaced fully in Denver, because that's what becomes of all power hitters once thought lost. It honestly surprises me that Colorado parted with Blaine Crim so easily; yes, T.J. Rumfield's a better working option, but Crim seemed so at home in Coors Field. Moniak has that same feeling, he's hitting .280 with 12 homers and 28 RBIs. At the moment he does lead the team in long balls, but Hunter Goodman's heating up, and he's got 11 right now. Moniak is 28, and the heights that were once assumed for him have come down, but he's still a pretty nice hitter with some defensive perks, and the Rockies need a guy like that right now, as they begin to assemble the next stage of the rebuild.

Right now, they've got slightly surer footing than before. Goodman and Rumfield are locked in, Tovar's been struggling but he's still great at short. Karros is more serviceable than anything but he's becoming more sure of himself. I think Troy Johnston's more of a placeholder guy, a good contact walloper in the tradition of Nathan Lukes and Addison Barger, without much defensive ability. A shame Beck, Doyle and Ritter haven't done much, as well as Zac Veen still in the minors. Freeland and Quintana's last few starts have ballooned their ERAs, and now Dollander's hurt, but Tomoyuki Sugano's been keeping things down and still has an ERA under 4. The bullpen's solidified but very snakebitten so far. 

As of right now they're still a last place team, but the Rockies arguably have more of a spark than the Giants at rest. This dismal May stretch just hasn't done them any favors, and they're now at 20-34, which is more in line with how things were the last few years. I still think an improvement is imminent, but they need to get past this month and get back to how surprising they were in April.

Coming Tomorrow- Moving to 1st base isn't for everyone, but after a couple seasons he's fully adjusted and is now focusing more on pure power damage.