A 2nd, a 6th and a Last

 

I was on a call with someone yesterday. Oh yeah, two brief life updates- 1, I'm on the precipice of a new job, that'll likely pan out and I'll be able to regularly buy cards again other than TCDB stuff. 2, I'm on the precipice of a new laptop, cause the new job requires a software my current laptop's physically unable to take on, so this is the last post being written by ol' faithful, which I got in July 2017, also on the precipice of a new job actually. This laptop has served me very well, and owes me nothing, other than like...the ability to take on iOS 15.6. So hopefully today I'll be moving onto laptop #3, probably a similar make and model to laptops 1 and 2. I look forward to writing posts and making customs on it.

But to backtrack, I was on a call with the guy who's giving me this job potentially [it's looking very good and if I do this project as well as I think I will, it's mine], and I emphasized that I use social media mainly to talk about my own idiosyncrasies, as well as baseball. And we talked baseball for a little bit. His team is the Royals. And he's at a point where they could be selling or could be on the way back up. So it's a moment of indistinct haze. 

And I just said 'well how about this Caglianone kid, right?'. And that made him a little more hopeful.

It's weird that a team that already had Bobby Witt Jr., and Salvy Perez in that matter, needed a Jac Caglianone, but here he is, saving the team once again. Cags is 23, and has the confidence and full MLB attitude that he lacked in a call-up last year. And right now he and Witt sit at the top of the team leaderboard together, as intended. Caglianone is hitting .268 with an .822 OPS, 30 RBIs and 14 homers, which is the most on the team. Kinda wild that a team with Bobby Witt Jr. and two power-hitting catchers has someone else leading in homers, but it SHOULD be Caglianone. He's just a really reliable all-around hitter, and him coming to prominence is a very good thing for this Royals team.

Especially considering all those huge injuries that have hit, essentially all at once. Maikel Garcia, Cole Ragans, Kyle Isbel, Vinnie Pasquantino, Kris Bubic, Carlos Estevez, Jonathan India and Alec Marsh are all hurt. That is a huge chunk of the 2024 playoff team, and a huge chunk of the team's WAR total since Quatraro took over. So it's really no wonder they're in last, the whole backbone's been taken away. They're plugging in what they can to make it look passable, guys like Luinder Avila, Nick Lofton, Lane Thomas, Kameron Misner and Josh Rojas, and they're all very clearly replacement level. Rojas is a decent third base substitution but he's no Maikel Garcia. They have Lucas Erceg manning the ninth for Estevez and it really isn't working out. At the very least, Carter Jensen's excellent behind the plate now, Michael Massey's heating up again at 2nd and Stephen Kolek is still a pretty nice low-rotation option. But you can tell they're trying to cover up some massive holes.

I don't think the Royals are gonna sell TOO much. Wacha or Lugo could go but I don't think they both will. The big pieces are either on rookie contracts or on real long ones. Maybe an Erceg or a Schreiber gets dealt. Who knows. They will recover, they just need even more good young options than what made them a force in 2024, which sounds like a lot. But I look at Cags and it doesn't look that far away.

Coming Tonight [?]: Right when everyone was wondering if he was still an elite hitter, here he comes with his best season at the plate in years. 

A Breakout Within a Breakout

 

So. To give you an idea. Last week the story was the surprise blowup of the Washington Nationals, a full lineup effort based on outhitting you no matter who you are, and they were gaining serious traction in the NL East. Then the Phillies series happened. As good as that Nats team is, their bullpen could not withstand this Phils team, and they blew all three games in the ninth. Many times to Derek Hill. And so now...the Nats are in fourth.

...leaving the Marlins, ANOTHER surprise breakout NL East team, to take third. And...they might have something cooking here.

The Marlins are 16-5 in June, they have the best home record in baseball, and they have a lineup full of young fun contact hitters. Edwards and Lopez have ruled this season, along with Liam Hicks, but a lot of peskier seasons are coming out of the woodwork this month. Heriberto Hernandez is a simple contact bat with no real defensive help, but he's been really on target lately, hitting .274 this month with 6 homers and 11 RBIs. Joe Mack has emerged as a viable catching option in the wake of Hicks' injury and Agustin Ramirez's demotion, he's got a .723 OPS and 18 RBIs in 38 games. Unlike the last bevy of catching options in Miami, Mack looks like he could be a foundational catching piece in addition to a steady bat who can catch. After a few weak seasons in between, Esteury Ruiz has gone back into his old role with the A's, as a decent contact bat with tons of steals. He's got a .897 OPS in 74 at-bats, which I was not expecting.

The thing about this Marlins team is you'd expect cheesy power, and there is some of that...it's just not pretty. Kyle Stowers is not as good as he was last year, and he's only got 8 homers and 29 RBIs through 57 games. Owen Caissie has 9 homers and 43 RBIs, but it's not pretty, and he strikes out way too much for that low hit total. Marsee ain't doing much better. Connor Norby got sent down due to how cold he's been hitting, so now Kyle Stowers is picking up more at-bats at first, and that's...sort of working. Him and Sanoja I guess. This isn't really a home run team, which is wild considering what last year was foreshadowing, but the contact game is so good that it's keeping them in the race.

Also very happy with this bullpen. The Blue Jays like to throw around the 'team of uncommon men' thing but look at these weirdoes! Lake Bachar and his swamp aftertaste coming in and striking you out. John King having a bounce back season after flunking out of St. Louis last year. Michael Petersen, a 32-year-old up and comer from Essex with a 3.18 ERA. Anthony Bender is continuing his run as the Marlins' best relief asset this decade. Tyler Phillips is now opening games and it's still working out. Even Fairbanks is beginning to loosen up and actually nail saves. The rotation is imperfect but the bullpen is ensuring the team can win close games.

Does this Marlins team have legs? Maybe? Maybe they can spin this into a low-key playoff team. They're kinda close, and there's less general mess than usual. There's still a lot of competition in the NL Central, and they already have to contend with a strong Phils team. It can be done, but it's gonna take even more long-term work from these hitters, like Hernandez, having a great June.

Coming Tomorrow- He came up right when the team, which was a playoff competitor, was trending downward. Can he do anything to stop that??

Elias Actually Did Something

 

It feels so obvious but for a team that just doesn't take on new contracts or players very often, it seems like the revelation of the century. If you bring in a bunch of players that can help the team...they will help the team win. It may not look like much from 4th, but I am telling you that this team is way better than it was without Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Leody Taveras, Blaze Alexander or Shane Baz. Last year, all Mike Elias added to the Orioles were three contracts that were unloaded by July [Morton, Kittredge and Laureano] and Tyler O'Neill, who's kinda sucked here. Now we actually have talented people in their prime delivering in Baltimore. What a difference that makes.

So, let's talk about Taylor Ward. He was traded for Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez is once again hurt and trying to pitch through it. It's not going well. Ward, meanwhile, is doing exactly what he did in Anaheim. He's leading the O's in doubles with 18, he's hitting .257 and has 5 homers and 22 RBIs, and he's still excellent out in left. That kind of bat, even behind Rutschman, Henderson, Basallo and Cowser, is still pretty valuable and varies the brunt of the offense. I dunno if we're gonna get to where we were in 2016, wall-to-wall unbeatable no matter how far down you get, but this is already looking good, even with Alexander, Taveras and Jackson bringing up the rear.

And then there's Pete Alonso, who's overcome a slow start to continue his run as one of the most consistent power hitters in the game. He's got an .815 OPS, a .474 SLG, 55 RBIs and, yes, 18 homers, on the way to what could be another 30+ homer year [which would be #7 if it happens, in...yeah, 8 seasons]. He's got a decent chance of making 300 homers this year if he doubles his current total, and there's still room for him to continue this standard of power hitting as a Baltimore Oriole. Early on they wanted to really push this narrative of 'well is this contract gonna be a mistake for Baltimore', and...no, not really. He's still Pete Alonso. Doesn't miss a game, gives his all, hits for power like no one else even on a down year. Chris Davis isn't this guy.

The O's could use some better stuff from their established talent though. Trevor Rogers seems to be on again, and he needs to stay on. Kyle Bradish and Brandon Young have been pretty much but the full rotation still isn't all the way terrific yet, and part of that is just how okay Shane Baz has been [he's 4-8]. Zach Elfin, Cade Povich and Des Kremer have been little-to-no help due to injuries, and usual bullpen mainstays Keegan Akin and Andrew Kittredge have been struggling mightily. The preexisting core needs to supplant the new guys, so that it all might be worth it. And the Orioles have had some very nice stretches, but it's all too inconsistent this year, which is too bad.

There's still time to turn things around, and there's still enough elements working that you can't completely count them out. I'm just thankful the new moves paid off. Let that be a lesson to you, Mike. You can too build a worthy team.

Coming Tonight: The Marlins are somehow still over .500 and have one of the best home records in baseball, and this guy has certainly helped this month. 

Eldridge Horror

 

It's no secret that the Giants probably aren't a competitor this year. The tentpoles can't lift them, the back half of the rotation and the bullpen are weaker than they should be, Drew Gilbert still hasn't taken off and the top 3 NL West teams are just better. But they're not gonna go quietly. I still think the Giants are one of the most interesting bad teams in the league. It took them this long to figure out how to hit, and now that they're doing so, it's paying off wildly. 

For instance...Bryce Eldridge. 21 years old, first full year in the bigs. In 38 games, his .874 OPS is the highest on the team, higher than Casey Schmitt or Jung Hoo Lee. The guy has 6 homers and 16 RBIs, and he seems to be just getting started. He's a 6'7 slugging machine with some defensive ability but a huge contact ceiling. The hope is the Giants have found their answer to Aaron Judge after missing out on him a few years ago. So far this year he's been a refreshing power bat, and has aided Schmitt, Lee, Luis Arraez and Matt Chapman in keeping the lineup strong.

Then...it finally appears that Rafael Devers might be heating up. His WAR's out of the negatives, which is a start. Now he's got 12 home runs and 38 RBIs, which is much better. Three away from a team lead, that's palpable. I think he's just shaken off the rough 1st two months and is finally getting down to business, which is nice. I also want to point out some unsung guys, like Jonah Cox, playing a minor outfield role but bringing some contact help, as well as Victor Bericoto, who's hit 2 homers in the last 24 hours against the A's, one being a huge walkoff blast. Obviously there's some issues with this lineup, most notably a lack of a real power core [which is what happens when Devers slumps and Heliot Ramos gets hurt], but the runs can get scored in wild ways. Maybe Daniel Susac is the guy one day, maybe Eric Haase's the guy another day, maybe it's Jung Hoo Lee barreling a homer to the moon. There's variety, and that's a start. It's not just on one guy, that helps.

Getting Logan Webb back has helped the rotation, as he and Robbie Ray have been pretty sharp, and Tyler Mahle appears to be getting back to his old tricks. For some reason Landon Roupp hasn't been doing too well since pride night. He's lost his last few starts anyway, but his ERA's now over 4 somehow. Maybe that guy he was writing about on his cap had some funny way of teaching him a lesson about caring for others. But what do I know? Maybe Jeffrey Springs and his 5 ERA can give him a call and tell him to show some remorse. 

The Giants are onto a Braves series next. On paper that should be difficult because...I mean, they're the Braves, but they are in a bit of a cold spell, so it could be up to the Giants to see how things shake out. Maybe Bericoto can keep hitting home runs. It'd be weird if he went on a power tear and Baldwin didn't..

Coming Tomorrow- At the time, the fans didn't understand this trade, especially who the team was giving up. Judging that the guy they received is continuing his contact excellence from LA, I think they understand it now.

No Change Expected

 

There's an old Twilight Zone episode where a sort of cheesy western cowboy hero gets confronted by the real Jesse James for how he's portrayed on his show, and in the end works out a deal where him and his other western legends can be depicted on his show, but only if they beat the shit out of him. Like, alright, you can include Wild Bill Hicock, but only if he outshoots you and makes you look silly.

That is how I can contextualize the modern Astros. They were not penalized for cheating in the 2017 World Series, but their way of paying the piper is this atrophy. It is going around and playing all the teams they embarrassed to get titles and getting the snot beaten out of them. Obviously the Yanks had fun with them this year, but the A's, Mariners, Royals, Tigers, Dodgers, Orioles and Guardians have already notched big wins against them. They have more Tigers games this weekend, we'll see how that goes.

Honestly, in a year with off-peak Jose Altuve, an outfield of .220 hitters, a down year from Yainer Diaz, the two most crucial offseason pitching acquisitions being duds, Hunter Brown being advised to 'go easy out there', a bloated bullpen and barely any general depth....yeah, this is an expected outcome. I don't know what else to say, this is clearly a lesser team, they're trying everything but it's just not working, especially when the three top teams have actual depth.

There are two Astros lineup pieces that I would allow to see in next month's ASG rosters. Yordan Alvarez, who's close to the top vote-getting spot, and deservingly so because good lord, and Jeremy Pena. Even in limited at-bats, Pena has been excellent this year, hitting .284 with 6 homers and 18 RBIs. The production has been much higher, and Pena himself has just felt more powerful than the old 'some skinny kid starting in Correa's place' we used to see. He's got a .451 SLG this year, closer to Christian Walker and Alvarez than usual. He's mixing his usual contact with more pop, and I think it's a very good combination. 

Other than that, man...I dunno. It's really hard to get excited about a team going with Peter Lambert as a good option. I get it, he spent a year in Japan, redid his whole motion or whatnot, but...I looked at his Yakult stats, and that's a 4.26 ERA with an 11-3 record. It's helped him get back under 4, he's got a 3.28 ERA now, but...I dunno, man. Arrighetti's for real, he's in 2024 form for sure. Hunter Brown's looking decent but, again, now that's he's missed time he's still in danger of missing more. There have been better rotations, much like there have been better lineups. 

So yeah, still very much an underwhelming time in Houston. I know this team has a habit of springing to life and scaring me when I think they're cooked, but...look, even last year's version of this team was better. And they all know it I think.

Coming Tonight: The Giants are hitting a lot more than they did at the beginning of this season. This guy has certainly helped. 

Mind the Gap

 

A couple weeks ago, I wrote one of these on the Reds, essentially saying 'obviously the team could crater without Elly de la Cruz, they need to prevent that'. And barring two big wins against the Yankees, they really haven't. 

I got to watch these guys in the Bronx friday night, the one game they lost out of the series, and I saw a team that looked kinda lost. Rhett Lowder was starting, and he's more of a leverage guy than I previously figured. Not a whiffer, at least not anymore. And while his placement was overall pretty strong, on a couple of occasions he put it in the wrong spot and somebody, like Jazz Chisholm or Ben Rice, took advantage. Lowder's also one of those 'don't overthrow or out for ages' kinda guys, so it's a treacherous game to play. The lineup itself, without Elly, felt listless. They've got guys who can hit, like J.J. Bleday or Sal Stewart, but against the Yanks' pitching that night they really couldn't. The heart of that lineup is guys like Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Nate Lowe who are...fine, but...not over the top great. They had Edwin Arroyo in for Elly that night, and...yeah, very replacement level. And the bullpen contains guys like Caleb Ferguson or Zach Maxwell, a guy who throws absolute smoke and has no control over it.

And the things that are working are just kinda weird. Like they have Blake Dunn up right now, and Dunn's one of those guys that's just struggled to find success in the majors, to the point where I always confused him with Oliver Dunn, a Brewers guy who had a similar track record. But Dunn's been excellent covering for T.J. Friedl, and he's hitting .272 with 37 hits in 36 games. Far and away the best hitter in the Elly-less stretch, though Stewart had some bombs in that run too. Bleday is kinda already in this category, I wrote him off after last season and now he's a mainstay yet again. Even Andrew Abbott's having a comparatively strange season, because it started with a lot of rough starts and run bleeding....but by and large he's honestly having a fine year. 3.83 ERA, 5-4 record, 1.8 WAR. He's definitely improved over time, and the Yanks start helped. I think I'm just surprised he's not 2025-good, but it's better than getting hurt, like most Reds pitchers after a strong season. Like you can see that Lodolo and Singer are fried from what they did while healthy last year and look a little strung out. Same with Pagan honestly. So it's very nice that Abbott and Burns are holding up alright.

Still, everything you've heard from the Reds so far this week has been 'look how badly the Brewers' pitching is feasting on them'. First Woodruff has a 1-hit dominant start. Then the other Brandon, Brandon Sproat, has a 1-hit dominant start. They had Shane Drohan tonight, and to be fair he's given up a few more hits, but it is going similarly, otherwise, as I write this. So even with Elly back, that's still the narrative. The Reds are a last place team in a tough division not delivering on the promises of the 2025 season, and waterlogged by injuries and inefficiency despite two genuine starmaking performances. Occasionally you get a cool nugget, like Julian Garcia finally making it to the bigs, but right now that's all they're good for.

Then again...who knows what'll happen when Hunter Greene comes back.

Coming Tomorrow- The Astros have a lot of frayed or vacant pieces this year...but they still have Yordan Alvarez and this guy.

Dropping the Cargo

 

I don't think that 2026 is gonna be enough to completely end the Tigers' current run. I think with the youth that is still coming, and that will remain, they will still be able to compete in the next few years, and can still evolve even with this year. This has just been insanely unlucky for them. It took until now for them to find a rotation that didn't fall apart, and for Framber Valdez to stop coughing up runs. They only won six games during the entire month of May, and are in 4th, barely staying ahead of Kansas City. It's a setback year more than anything.

But...that setback is gonna cost them Tarik Skubal.

Looking ahead to the trade deadline season, I'm already predicting this is gonna be a kind of quiet one comparatively. Some of the biggest assets might be relief specialists and second string catchers and role players. People are trying to go 'will Mike Trout leave' or 'will Byron Buxton leave', and...no. Stop that. They both wanna retire with their current team, drumming this shit up again is gonna waste everyone's time. What WILL be happening, unless the Tigers get their act together in 30 days, is Tarik Skubal's gonna be headed elsewhere. It won't kill the development, as the Tigers will still have Casey Mize, and they'll get Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe back next year. Plus I feel like they've still got some big arms on the way given the farm system's recent success rate. Skubal will not ruin the team, not when they still have Mize and Valdez both doing well as of late. 

And Skubal's had a nice season, with a 3.02 ERA and 57 Ks in 9 starts. It's a little less consistent than usual, and limited thanks to an injury, but it's still peak Skubal. I can only imagine he's being shopped as we speak, and I can only imagine the usual suspects want him. The Dodgers technically don't need pitching right now, but they're greedy enough that they'd offer like Emmet Sheehan, Justin Wrobleski and Landon Knack for him, something silly like that, cause they can. The Yankees do have enough prospects to chase them but Cashman's gonna be like 'do we really NEED to trade Jasson Dominguez, the guy I only play when he's either cold or about to get injured?'. The Cardinals could come out of nowhere and nab him to make themselves competitors. The O's could do it like they were going to two years ago, and offer up all the prospects they don't have room to play. There are probably others. I don't see anyone topping the Dodgers' offer but I'd love to be surprised.

Without Skubal, the Tigers still have some life, including a strong campaign from Keider Montero filling in for Justin Verlander, see excellent stuff from Troy Melton filling in for Jack Flaherty, the usual strong standard of production from Riley Greene, dingers all over the place from Dillon Dingler [who'd have thought, right??], and that ROY-caliber campaign from Kevin McGonigle. They're just too unlucky overall to really be a match for Cleveland or Chicago. I'm not saying they're completely out of it yet, but Skubal's got his foot basically out the door a month before the deadline, so that can't be helpful.

Coming Tonight: A guy who somehow managed to hold down the Yankees this weekend [much like Framber Valdez did last night].