Sandy & The Hourglass

 

The Marlins are in second place. Are they in second place because they are honestly kinda good, or are they in second place because their competition is the Nationals, who aren't great, and the Phils and Mets, who had awful losing streaks? It's too soon to say. But it has to help that Sandy Alcantara's finally pitching like his old self again.

The Sandy Alcantara era in Miami has been a strange one, because when they had absolutely nothing they still had him, and then once they were able to build a team and compete, Sandy, well...he got hurt, missed a season and spent 2025 not being too great. And now for 2026 they have a lot more cemented. Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez make a great DP combo. Kyle Stowers just returned to aid Owen Caissie and Jakob Marsee in the outfield. Liam Hicks is having the contact season of his life. And the bullpen has finally locked in consistently. 

But now...this growing, improving Marlins team has a great Sandy Alcantara performance behind it. Through 5 starts, he's got a 2.80 ERA, 23 Ks, a 1.019 WHIP and a complete game shutout under his belt. This is the guy who won the Cy Young a few years ago. There was a worry that the big season cooked his arm, but that doesn't seem to be the case. He's still dominant, he's still trustworthy, and he can still lead this rotation forward. And just to be clear, he's not exactly doing all the work either. Max Meyer's off to a pretty nice start, and has 28 strikeouts already. Janson Junk and Eury Perez have had some pretty nice starts. I figure Braxton Garrett will be back eventually, there's still room for outside voices, but what they have at the moment is working despite the lack of real exclamation points.

I think what's most relieving about this Marlins team is that the parlance 'well, it won't be pretty' doesn't apply to this team as much as it did to past iterations. There is much better hitting on this team, and more of the contact variety. 5 years ago it was easy to get like 6 guys who hit homers and then only hit .220 and be alright with it, but now that Edwards, Stowers, Hicks, Sanoja and Lopez can just hit for other reasons than just hitting home runs, it gives more of an idea of what the team can accomplish. Last year the Blue Jays contact-hit their way to a World Series, and the Guardians' contact game gets them to the playoffs frequently. The Marlins have enough varied hitting energy to get them far. And if all else fails, they have Deyvison de los Santos, who could probably hit 30 home runs if they can keep him in the majors. 

I feel good about this Marlins team. Granted, if the bottom two disappointments can really turn things around, they'll need to shift into a different gear, so hopefully there's a higher ceiling than usual for the Marlins.

Coming Tomorrow- I still can't believe that this is like the one guy the Rays couldn't wait til he blossomed to trade. They just did it immediately. And now he's one of two ex-Rays leading the Twins rotation.

Bigger, Badder and More Canadian

 

It's the kind of prophecy that feels like it's out of a movie, but imagine being in Montreal in 2003, around when it became clear that Vladimir Guerrero was leading the Expos in free agency. Cause it would feel like all the hope was going away with the loss of one guy. Imagine if you had the knowledge to go 'don't worry...there will be another Vladimir Guerrero in 15 years, and he'll be just as good as the previous one, and what's more...he'll get to spend even more of his career in Canada. Cause that's where he was born'.

It sounds ridiculous, but somehow Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has guaranteed, even just 8 seasons into his career, that even as legendary as his father was in all his years in the league...he will be the most Canadian Vladimir Guerrero to ever play. Canada by way of the DR. It just gets more Arthurian the more you think about it. Born in Montreal, plays in Toronto, gets 'em to their first World Series since before he was born, and signs a contract ensuring he'll stay in Canada for years to come. All that remains is for him to play well, and that's what he's been doing.

Through 8 seasons, Vlad Jr. has 185 home runs [15 away from 200, and that's certainly doable], 603 RBIs, 1107 hits, a career .290 average and 26.8 WAR. By 27, that's a strong resume, even without adding the 5 straight all-star appearances and the 8 homers in one postseason. The expectations were huge for Guerrero, and he's definitely risen to them. I think in 2023 there was a moment where we all kinda rethought things for a second, as he was only hitting .260 and not getting 30 homers, but then he replied with 2 straight top-tier seasons and that postseason campaign. Right now he's hitting .337 with 12 RBIs and 30 hits, proving that the emphasis doesn't have to be on power all the time. Guerrero's just turned into a truly tremendous hitter, and an excellent centerpiece player who, even without Bo Bichette, can still command a lineup. 

The Jays themselves, meanwhile, are under .500 and doing their best to bounce back. The full team effort from 2025 seems to have subsided slightly, as the lineup's a bit more piecemeal. Losing Kirk and Springer hurts, and not even a surprise bench turn from Eloy Jimenez and the latent production of Kazuma Omamoto have patched things tremendously. It's just a comparatively less exciting lineup, and that returns the Jays to being a slightly above average team in a division where you need to be overwhelmingly great to survive. The Rays and Orioles are head of the Jays in the division in a year where the Jays felt like a shoo-in for at least 2nd. The pitching is only marginally better, as the 'break in case of emergency' starters, Eric Lauer and Patrick Corbin, are already several starts into the season, Scherzer's looking really cooked and Jeff Hoffman forgot how to save games.

Of course this team can turn things around, as they've done it before. But it just seems like even more of an uphill battle than last year. In 2025, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. felt like one of many prime, pivotal hitters, and now it feels like more is on his shoulders again. Hopefully the rest begin to step up soon.

Coming Tomorrow- He was elite, he got hurt, he struggled...and now he appears to be back.  

Un-X-pected

 

A Padres team desperate for starting pitching, where Fernando Tatis has 0 home runs and Xander Bogaerts has 3, has won 17 games, with 9 of those wins being saved by Mason Miller, who has yet to allow a run. I knew these post-Seidler teams were gonna be weird, but this is wild, guys.

I always expected these Padres teams to come down to Tatis and Machado, and so far neither has been much of a factor. Tatis is technically hitting, and stealing bases, but the power numbers are way down. Machado's hitting .188, and the fear is that the peak years may have subsided. Jackson Merrill is doing *alright*, but he's not 2024 good yet. And so...having Xander Bogaerts around to ace the contact game again is a very good thing. He's looked a bit aimless the last couple years, but now he's back to leading the team in hits and returning to his old power perks. It's a little weird that a team the Padres now needs guys like Ramon Laureano and Miguel Andujar to do a lot of the run production work, but Bogie running things was always a hope when they signed him, and though he's not completely in world-beating mode like he was in Boston, he's still feeling more like himself than he has in a while.

And that's the ultimate feeling. There's a definite spark that is lifting this team over the competition, and it's led to a start that's put them, at long last, at the top of the division with the Dodgers. Now, last year, if you'll recall, the Padres had so many opportunities to gain a cushion against LA but simply could not, due to constantly losing their divisional matchups together. This year, even if there's still some weak spots in the lineup, they've gained enough momentum early to match up to the Dodgers. It's an unassuming Padres team to do this with, but it's appreciated.

Once again, I do worry about the thin rotation aspect. Musgrove isn't back for a couple more weeks, Pivetta's probably mid-May, Canning's second half. They just went and got Lucas Giolito, like they should have two months ago, and Walker Buehler and German Marquez are beginning to wear out their welcomes. Right now it's just Randy Vasquez and Michael King looking halfway decent up there, and while it may be enough for now, there's gonna be a point in the season where you need 5 strong options. I don't care how good your bullpen is, you can't go on 2 sure things and a prayer. It's kind of the exact opposite of the Dodgers' playoff strategy last year, giving all the relief opportunities to starters and hoping the actual relievers don't need to go in.

I still think the Padres can surprise people this year, and if people like Machado, Merrill and Tatis really take off, the Dodgers could have some serious trouble on their hands this year. 

Coming Tonight: I think there was a moment a few years ago where I was beginning to think the hype around this guy could be overblown. I don't anymore. 

Excessive Gore

 

To be at .500 and in 2nd, and ahead of your two greatest competitors in the standings, has to feel weird. Like you're there, you're accomplishing your goal...but is it earned? Are you beating yourself as much as you're beating them? The Rangers are looking decent right now, but is it because they've gotten off to a less rough start than Seattle or Houston, or are they actually on the precipice of something?

The issue of this team, since having to follow up the championship season, has been the inability for the young, homegrown core to actually inherit the team, still relying on contracted veterans like Corey Seager, Jacob deGrom and now Brandon Nimmo to do the heavy lifting. Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung and Evan Carter have flirted with greatness but injuries have prevented its consistency. Langford is once again hurt, right as he gets going. The good news is that Carter looks good, hitting a homer as I write this and letting his multi-tool ability distract from his comparatively pedestrian average. Jung's hitting .300, that's a nice start. Even Kumar Rocker's beginning to grow accustomed to MLB hitting, and has his ERA below 4. Beyond that, though, this is still a hodgepodge of acquired guns rather than a full youth movement. Which does explain why the team's development has sputtered a bit.

I do credit the Rangers for bringing on MacKenzie Gore, who's still young enough to be on the ground floor of something here. Gore is known for his high-K, high-velocity mentality, which also occasionally leads to a higher ERA. Sure enough, Gore has 35 Ks, a 1.192 WHIP...and a 4.15 ERA. Everything they figured would happen is happening. Still fits into this rotation pretty well though. I don't think Gore is gonna be the full package that the Padres were figuring when they drafted him, but he's still a handy flamethrower to have around. And then you have Jacob deGrom, still very much a viable ace, who's got a 2.29 ERA in 4 starts. I worry a bit about Evo and Leiter, but the season's young. 

Regardless, even if it's not pretty or sustainable, the runs are getting produced. Jake Burger's still an RBI machine, Seager's still the fearless captain of yore, Nimmo's having a comeback year, and Langford and Carter look confident and versatile. The team average is low, and there's a bunch of people still not hitting, but games are getting won. I think any sense of a gameplan went out the window when Bochy left, and now the Skip Schumacher approach just involves winning with what they've got by any means necessary. 

And if that works better than Bochy-ball did...it just proves that you can't really predict anything.

Coming Tomorrow- It's possible he may never live up to his Red Sox numbers, but he's still doing whatever he can to keep his team in the conversation.

The Thrill of the Chase

 

So, we find the Reds rotation in its current incarnation, with Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo injured, Andrew Abbott not injured but looking really rough, Brandon Williamson and Rhett Lowder not injured and doing well, Chase Burns looking even better than he did as a call-up last year, and Brady Singer...just waiting til someone notices he's still here. It's not what everyone expected it to look like, but it seems to be working.

The fundamental issue with these Reds rotations is always going to be that because the four main arms throw as hard as they do, it's very unlikely for them all to be healthy together for a consistent period. It's what doomed the 2010s Mets, and it would have doomed the 2025 Dodgers had they not been unstoppable. I would love to see a version of this team that had Greene, Lodolo, Lowder and Burns all together, healthy and good, but the throwing regimens demand that we only get them for a certain amount of time before they need to sit for a couple months. 

Regardless, the version we've got now seems fine. Chase Burns is the current standout, he's 2-1 with 30 Ks in his first 5 starts, looking very MLB ready. Rhett Lowder's pretty good too, he's the most dominant guy they have, even if he hasn't struck as many guys out as Burns. Williamson looks decent, he's probably a better bet for consistency than the other two, though Abbott may just be having a rough April. And luckily the Reds' bullpen is the best it's been in years, with Graham Ashcraft, Tony Santillan, Pierce Johnson, Sam Moll, Connor Phillips and Brock Burke all in excellent shape. A shame about Emilio Pagan's blown saves, though...he has a tendency to do that. 

And then to back them up you have Sal Stewart and Elly de la Cruz off to terrific starts, both with 8 homers, and Sal with 24 RBIs already. Elly excelling is no surprise, and he may finally be chasing that MVP, but Stewart is not only MLB ready, he's already one of the most intimidating sluggers in the game. Already a slam dunk at first base. The sad detail is that it's really only them who are hitting right now. Lot of guys flirting with .200 or looking for their first homer or trying to match up. Steer, Friedl, Stephenson and McLain represent the backbone of this team and they're all giving absolutely nothing. Suarez is trying but he's only hit 3 homers so far. 

I sincerely hope the Reds can capitalize more on this great pitching year by bringing forth a full lineup effort, because right now it's just 2 guys doing all the work, and that's not sustainable. You can't waste great seasons by Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder, cause who knows how long it'll be until their arms let them have other ones.

Coming Tonight: He got out of Washington right when his new team was about to shock the division.

Mize on the Prize

 

I still think Tarik Skubal essentially taking the pressure off of Casey Mize was the best thing to happen to Mize. Gets picked overall, has 1 good season, gets hurt then struggles to cope with not being the center of everything. And luckily at that point the Tigers have Skubal playing amazingly and he can just...have a nice enough season without the added expectations. It's worked out for all involved parties.

Mize is 29, and has really only had 2 full seasons in the MLB, which is the kind of thing that happens when your development is held up by a pandemic and then injury concerns. Last year was the fullest view of Mize post-TJ, and it earned him an All-Star nod and a surer place in this rotation. As it stands now, he still doesn't have as much to carry as Skubal, or even late-game dominator Framber Valdez, but he's been very nice through his first 4 starts, with a 2.78 ERA, 25 Ks and a 0.8 WAR. Even if he's clearly a #4 guy in this rotation [for now, Jack], he's more sure of himself than he's ever been and he's continuing his 2025 success with similar consistency. 

It's very funny how a lot of this team goes along the idea of 'despite what you might think, the #1 overall guy isn't gonna save the world for this team'. Spencer Torkelson, despite a decent 2025, is back to flirting with the Mendoza line. Still hasn't hit a homer this year. Riley Greene, while not a #1 overall pick, was a highly regarded organizational piece for a while, and though the hope was for him to be a starring man, he's...kinda doing his own thing? He's hitting .265 with 14 RBIs and just 1 homer. It's a very pedestrian year from him so far. Hopefully it heats up at some point. 

What I'm saying is that, because some of the draft picks have sputtered, the Tigers' success has been left to a lot of other guys, and...that may explain why the team hasn't exactly taken off yet this year. Dillon Dingler's having another strong year, with 5 homers and 18 RBIs, but I don't think it's a Cal Raleigh situation where he can become a marquee guy. Gleyber Torres is hitting, but he's below his 2025 standard. At least Kevin McGonigle's still hitting .300 and filling all boxes, but a rookie shouldn't be leading a competitive team in WAR. It doesn't feel like much of a group effort right now, despite the much better pitching picture. 

The Tigers are at .500 right now, and trying to gauge how much it'll take to overtake Minnesota. I still think they're a competitive team, and have a chance at the division title, but this is an inauspicious start for a team that was firing on all cylinders at this point last year. Hopefully something clicks soon enough, as they were working on a streak last week before they had to play Milwaukee. 

Coming Tomorrow- Young, throws smoke, and is getting an opportunity to start for the Reds because...the other young guys that throw smoke keep getting injured for some reason.

Elder Buried

 

I dunno if I'm ever gonna be able to figure out Bryce Elder. Cause either he's a dominant, forceful fly-ball pitcher with a low K rating, or he can't keep runs down to save his life. There's something very classic about Elder, he just stays up there and stays in long enough to get the job done, no real 100mph stuff. Sometimes that results in an ASG appearance and a low ERA, and sometimes that results in everybody killing him at the plate and nobody taking him seriously. I suppose it's connected to how viable the Braves' offense is, cause Elder was great when the Braves were good, and last year when the Braves struggled he was subpar. 

So anyway, the Braves are good again and Bryce Elder has a 0.77 ERA through 4 starts. I dunno if it's gonna make sense, I just know that it's a good thing.

The Braves' rotation has this 'handle with care' quality to it, because it hinges on four guys who throw hard and get injured more often than not. If Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep didn't overthrow and run the risk of missing time, they'd be able to accomplish more and potentially win more titles. But this is the life they've chosen. So the Braves now have to stack the pitching staff with supplanting options that don't overthrow. Reynaldo Lopez is one of them, and after a lost 2025 he's back in full force, with a 2.18 ERA in 4 starts. Grant Holmes has been very reliable, and durable, in a swing role, and so far while his ERA is closer to 4 than he'd like, he's still a valid innings eater. Even 35-year-old Martin Perez has joined in on the fun, with 4 games of pure dominance and a 2.21 ERA despite only 10 strikeouts. 

If the team has the leverage and the pitcher can stay on, control guys like Elder and Holmes can still be valuable pieces. It's actually a very efficient strategy, one that I'm really interested to see morph once some more starting options return. Strider and Waldrep should be back soon, and they're gonna want to get Didier Fuentes more starts at some point [unless they mean to dangle him for an upgrade]. 

That level of pitching depth combined with a ferocious lineup has made the Braves a definite standout so far. Nobody wants to go up against a team where Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Dominic Smith are not only hitting but surging. Dominic Smith has gone from a handy fill-in in SF to a genuine DH standout, with 4 homers and 16 RBIs in 17 games. Baldwin's a power hitter who's also hitting .304 right now, he's everything you want. Mauricio Dubon might just be the guy going forward at short, with apologies to Ha-Seong Kim. Only guy that isn't really hitting is Yaz, but it's early.

Now that the Braves have sufficiently embarrassed the Phillies, they now get to play Washington for four games and arrive home in time for the Phillies to have hopefully remembered how to play baseball. It's looking extremely good for the start of the Walt Weiss regime in Atlanta, and I reckon it's about to get even better. Cause Acuña's barely even woken up yet.

Coming Tomorrow- He was drafted 1st overall, and was thought to be the first piece of a legendary youth movement. It didn't work out 100% as planned, but he's still a very important piece of their next act.