This is 40

 

This week, there's been an alarming development that, while it may not immediately lead to anything, or it may be solely hogwash, could lead to something intriguing happening. You see, both the Dodgers and the Yankees have been seriously considering, erm...signing 44-year-old Rich Hill.

And what makes this funny is that injuries have been forcing both teams, to this point, to go younger and younger. The Yankees might bring Jasson Dominguez back up soon, he's only 21. The Dodgers have been thumbing through minor league pitching options. Desperately trying to find people too young to break down upon impact. And one of their remedies for roster bulking is...signing a 44-year-old ageless wonder who's made himself available for teams and seems to still have stuff left.

It's wild to me that Hill would immediately make himself available to the Yankees, of all teams. Not only was Hill's Yankee tenure one of his most forgettable ones, but it's widely reported that Hill is a Boston sports fan. Like, 'caught the ire of cops outside Gillette stadium' Boston sports fan. So while he's grateful that someone would want to sign him, it's weird that he's gearing himself directly towards the Yankees. But, again, they're aiming to get far in, they need an innings eater, it would make sense.

Hill, upon his return, would become, again, the oldest player in the major leagues, and the seventh 40+ year old employed by a major league team [I am counting Max Scherzer, even if he does turn 40 tomorrow]. And the wild part is that five of the seven are pitchers- Hill, Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Jesse Chavez...and Charlie Morton. 

Morton is one of those cases of a player whose career truly begins after thirty. He was fine for the Pirates during the early 2010s, but the Astros' pitching coaches really unlocked something in him in 2017, and since then he's been 89-47 with 1351 Ks and a 3.57 ERA. Barely any missed time, barely any true down years, 2 World Series' in 3 appearances, and they're still letting him pitch at 40. Not only that, but Morton's still a pretty reliable guy for the Braves, he's got a 3.83 ERA and 101 Ks. This year he'll likely notch his 2000th strikeout, which, will not exactly making him a Hall of Famer, definitely cements his status as one of the best pitchers of this current era. Putting him in the same sentence as Scherzer and Verlander in terms of career longevity and consistent quality is not the worst idea, even if Morton doesn't have the 20s runs that either of those two have. 

And so even if it's likely that some of these 40 year olds will likely retire at the end of the season [Jesse Chavez seems to be doing this, and Gurriel, Votto and Hill certainly could], it's very cool that we have this many playing at the same time, and playing well. Morton, Verlander and Scherzer are still very much viable and trustworthy options, even in their forties. And it's nice that in the era of overthrowing we can still have guys like that.

Coming Tomorrow- I assumed that the AL was only bringing one utility man with them for the All Star Game, and then this guy wound up coming as well, and doing well in the ASG.

Deeper Wells

 

The Yankees don't make sense this year. We took 5 from Houston and we can't even take 1 from the Mets?  What's even going on??

I mean, Luis Severino made waves before the Yanks-Mets games in the Bronx saying 'well they really only have 2 guys that are any good right now', and all the Yankee fans stood up and went 'THAT'S NOT TRUE' and then the series happens and not even those two guys show up. In Game 1, Judge was walked 4 times and then struck out in a clutch position in the ninth. Soto was similarly held down in those two games. The second game, where the Mets kept striking repeatedly without the Yankees having anything to contend with, was painful. You got the sense that every so often the lineup COULD wake up, like the Rays game where Austin Wells, Gleyber Torres and Oswaldo Cabrera made 'em suffer, but most of the time they didn't want to.

And so right now you're hearing, once again, the cries of 'fire Boone' and 'fire Cashman', because they couldn't build a team that could withstand slumps or injuries, and while it may not be quite as bad as it was in 2023, it's concerning. This team isn't...completely terrible, but you get the sense that they could be much better. Gerrit Cole has been fine since he was activated. Not awful, but for someone who won a Cy Young last year he's been decidedly mid. He's stuck out 38, and given up 39 hits. Similarly disappointing is D.J. LeMahieu, who's hitting .179 since his return. It's genuinely upsetting that a team, that employs D.J. LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Jon Berti, J.D. Davis and Gleyber Torres is apparently looking for infield help. And Ben Rice has been helpful, but he's stopped hitting since his come-up and is now back under .200. This sort of thing, everybody going cold at once, is the kind of thing that really should have been avoided.

The thing that hopefully will be remembered about this down period is that at least Austin Wells was able to come into his own during it. Wells is decent enough at the plate, with 7 homers and 22 RBIs, but his defensive catching abilities have pushed him ahead of Jose Trevino. He's also one of those guys that can come through in the clutch when you least expect it, like a better version of Kyle Higashioka. The hope is that, like Anthony Volpe, he'll come into his own consistently at some point, but for now he's been very useful.

This Yankees team has come upon flashes of great moments. Occasional great starts by Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon. Trent Grisham periodically doing something incredible. Judge hitting a homer. Those games you trivia for where the team comes alive and punishes an opposing pitcher. But the problem with this July stretch is that they've been too infrequent. And now comes the point in the coping, as the Red Sox and Phillies line up, where we start believing that if we make a trade deadline move, which Cashman will either A.) not do despite reports of the contrary or B.) do in a way that makes us regret it in a year's time, that'll save the team. It's a nice pipe dream, but it probably won't.

Coming Tonight: He's over 40 and a team can still count on him. Who'd have thought?

You Left at the Right Time

 I love that what Joe Musgrove and Dylan Cease both have in common is that the season they leave the city that gave them the most success in exchange for a ride on a competitive team, they throw a no-hitter in their first season there. Both are responsible for the first two no-hitters in Padres history, and both have very similar career trajectories. 

And it's even more interesting that Cease was in camp with the White Sox earlier this season, and the Padres pulled the trigger on him relatively late into preseason. Unlike Musgrove, who found out he was going to San Diego at a normal time in 2021. So Cease got accustomed to San Diego, came into his own, and in his last three starts has struck out 25 and given up TWO hits. That's pretty damn incredible. 

Equally incredible is his no-hitter today, which could have been halted after 7 had Cease himself not reassured the pitching coaches that he had enough to finish it off. And sure enough, he did, and the Nats couldn't muster much, even in the waning moments of the games. It's very ironic that the last guy to get silenced by Cease was C.J. Abrams, a former Padre himself. It goes back to what I said earlier in the season about how wild the Nats-Padres matchups are now, cause both lost Soto and are battling with the prospects they got for him. 

Still, awesome to see Cease finish the job, and happy for the Padres to put another milestone on the board. I sincerely hope Cease's arm holds up after that.

Twelve Injured Dodgers [And Counting]

 Nothing could be more on the nose than me prepping a custom for a post about how flea-bitten the Dodgers are this season of a guy that lands on the IL right as I'm writing the post. That is...infuriatingly hilarious. 

Miguel Rojas, who was already a pretty strong fill-in for Mookie Betts with his best season since leaving Miami, has landed on the IL, right at the moment where Tyler Glasnow, who was unsurprisingly finding success in LA, is activated. Right now, the Dodgers' injured list is basically a list of 12 players the Dodgers could really use right now. Ranging from crucial lineup pieces like Mookie Betts and Max Muncy, bullpen assets like Brusdar Graterol and Ryan Brasier, and starting pieces like Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Emmett Sheehan, Michael Grove, Walker Buehler and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. As good as they are right now, imagine how much better they would be if none of those guys got hurt.

And it's showing at this point in the season. River Ryan and Justin Wrobleski, both of whom should in all likelihood be still coming to prominence in Oklahoma City at the moment, are in the MLB rotation doing their best. Ryan did well enough in a premier start, but this is not where he thought he'd be at this point. Nobody thought that all this pressure would be put upon someone like Justin Wrobleski in July. Hell, Kyle Hurt, who did pretty well for himself on a call-up, now needs surgery and will be out for a year, so that's another young option done. And that's not even bringing up Bobby Miller, who's been terrible this year with an 8 ERA, and is actually one of the few people allowed to go back to OKC with the rotation in this state. The good news is that Glasnow just got activated, so even with James Paxton released, which...I don't agree with, he was 8-2 for god's sakes, you will at least have Glasnow, Gavin Stone and Landon Knack, all of whom know what they're doing and are trusted.

But like...the Dodgers' rotation should not be down to a trade piece and two rookies to lead off. All the money this team spent on Yamamoto and he gets hurt immediately. Kershaw will be back tonight, but in what state?? Hell, one of the best pitchers on the team is rehabbing from Tommy John at the moment. Forget the fact that he's hitting .314 with 30 homers and is likely on his way to an MVP. In an ideal world he'd be pitching as well, as would a lot of people.

And thus the Dodgers' mega team has deflated significantly in the last month. They're still comfortably in first, comfortably over .500, but the mystique is gone. Now you can probably beat these guys, even if Ohtani shows up. The Phillies and Tigers had no trouble. They've been strong since the ASG break, but who knows what the next thing to fall off will be. 

If enough guys get healthy at the right time, this may not be much of an issue, but if it is the Dodgers will never hear the end of it. They had the team, and couldn't keep it healthy. And it'll be hard to solve that problem in the coming years.

Coming Tonight: Somehow, in a bleak period for the Yankees, this guy started hitting.

Dead SEA

 

The Astros catching up in the standings at the exact moment that Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford hit the IL just confirms the fact that somewhere, some deity absolutely despises the Seattle Mariners.

Clearly, this week is a clean slate week for the Mariners. With Rodriguez and Crawford out for a while and Ty France surprisingly DFA'd, the lineup needs to be completely restructured. Now the heart of the team needs to be people like Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley and Josh Rojas, who, while good, aren't especially central figures to me. You're also seeing a ton of placeholders trying their best to wind up above replacement level. Tyler Locklear is back at 1st, and the hope is that he eventually starts hitting over .206. Leo Rivas is getting infield reps, and is looking like an eventual step up from Jorge Polanco. Jonatan Clase is getting OF reps in Julio's absence, but he's still not looking MLB ready, similar to Ryan Bliss.

The one highlight of this team's hitting in the last month has been Victor Robles, a man who refused to hit for the Nationals for four straight years. Robles, since coming over, has been hitting .375 with 18 hits and 7 stolen bases. Some respectable contact energy on a team that just cannot get things going at the plate, even with Mitches Garver and Haniger trying their best to hit for power. The Astros clearly have no trouble hitting, so if you're gonna stand there and go 'you try and take 1st' and then get nothing done, you're gonna look silly. The Angels swept these guys this week, and that's a team that arguably has more lineup holes than they do. 

Yes, it's great that the pitching staff is still pretty overpowering, but it really needs to be more than that. Gilbert, Kirby, Castillo, Miller and Woo are gonna walk away with seasons to be proud of, but they're still seasons that don't mean much more than dominant pitching, because the lineup didn't show up for most of the season. Woo is back from the IL, and he's still in decent shape, even if his ERA has ballooned to 2.54. The other four are still doing exactly what they've been doing since the start of the season, and while it's good stuff it's just a pity that the wins don't mean much. Andres Muñoz has 16 saves and a 1.35 ERA, which is pretty great, but he's only needed if the offense can match what they allow, and that's a tall order when the heart of the lineup is either hurt or ineffective. 

Look, the Rangers are catching back up, the Astros have first again. Unless this team puts something together they'll fall right out of the narrative, just like last year. And nobody wants that, especially after everything this team was supposed to be. I sincerely hope they can change things up, because this is just depressing.

Coming Tomorrow- Though the Mariners could have it worse. Only 3 or 4 major pieces are injured. This guy has to start in place of an MVP candidate, and he's not the only one making up hours.

The Tanking Plan Backfires

 

There's a show I watch called Mock the Week that does an ending quick fire improv round, like Scenes from a Hat from Whose Line, and there was a 'lines you wouldn't hear in a sci-fi film' suggestion, and a comedian goes up and says something to the effect of 'we've fired our lasers directly at the giant space beast coming towards us, but all it's done is improved its eyesight'.

I thought about that when looking at this Brewers team to this point. They gave up their best pitcher, lost their other best pitcher to an injury, lost their manager for a rival, were projected to finish fourth in the division, and yet they're leading with even more great pieces than they ended an already-strong 2023 with. The plan was to rebuild and cool off and instead they're a first place team with a pretty decent shot at the postseason. Kind of incredible, honestly. I bet Craig Counsell's really astonished.

The single best thing this Brewers team has going for it is you can see the next iteration of it doing a lot of work. Last year the concerning detail was Wiemer and Turang not hitting, and now Turang's one of the best players on the team. All these second years and young players are contributing so much. Blake Perkins is having an awesome season, not only as a defensive outfielder, but as a decent contact guy with some power perks. Garrett Mitchell's beginning to get back to where he was before the injuries, he's hit .243 in 13 games. Sal Frelick is still a fan favorite, with a .269 average and the occasional amazing defensive moment. Jackson Chourio's gotten over his slow start and now has 10 homers and 40 RBIs. Even Tobias Myers has become a strong third to Peralta and Rea, with a 6-4 record and a 3.14 ERA. 

The other great thing about this Brewers team is that they've become a very good 'is someone not playing well for your team? Send him to us' club. Aaron Civale famously got sent over from Tampa, and I think he's a bit better suited for the Brewers, despite the fact that he's winless in 3 games [the bones are there]. The Brewers also seem to have fixed Bryse Wilson after struggles in Pittsburgh, made Jared Koenig into a substantial arm after being lit up in Oakland, and somehow gotten an explosive start out of Eric Haase, who's hitting .429 as a Brewer. This didn't seem to work for Dallas Keuchel, but it's worked for all of these guys, and I bet they're thankful.

This Brewers team is 5 games ahead of the competition and looking to have a really easy week. I'd love for them to actually make a dent in the playoff race this year, even if the Phillies and Dodgers will be tough to beat. They have enough to make a run I think, especially if it continues at this pace.

Coming Tonight: A closer for a team that's desperately trying to jumpstart the lineup.

The Guardians' Worrying Detail

 

So obviously the Guardians are in a pretty good position at the moment. Still in 1st in the AL Central by 4 games, still getting excellent seasons out of Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor, still responsible for one of the best bullpens in the biz, and now have a #1 pick to look forward to, Travis Bazzana, once he's given a respectful development period. However, there are issues beginning to mount. For one, they won their first game back from the break then promptly fell off. A friend of mine was at that Friday game, the win, and then after the three losses he went 'am I just gonna have to go to all their games to make sure they keep winning?'. Next they have a crucial divisional series against the Tigers, followed by an even more crucial series against the Phillies. They cannot slip now, because the Twins will be more than happy to slide right into the divisional lead.

Now, there are two big things in regards to this Guardians team that worry me. One is a current issue, the other isn't an issue yet but could be down the road. The first issue is a simple one- the starting pitching. There's nothing overwhelmingly great happening here. Tanner Bibee, to his credit, is having a good season, he's 8-4 with a 3.58 ERA and 126 Ks, but for the ace of a first place, surging Guardians team it's a weaker affair than one might think. I go back to the 2016 team, who ruled the AL with a rotation of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar and Josh Tomlin, and even the 2019 iteration, which got great years out of Bauer, Carrasco, Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger. As recently as last year, the Guardians could come at you with a powerful youth rotation of Bibee, Gavin Williams, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Xzavion Curry. And now it just seems like everything's all over the place.

Some of the Guardians' most useful starters this year have been Ben Lively, a control artist who's 8-6 with a 3.57 ERA, Carrasco, who's clearly lost his juice but has made 18 starts and has struck out 74, and Logan Allen, who went 8-4 with a 5 ERA before being sent back to the minors. Gavin Williams and Xzavion Curry are up now, and have been decent in their past few appearances, but this is a very injury-depleted rotation, and it's hard for this team to deliver a consistent rotation year-to-year if everyone's gonna wear out their arms like this. The current model could work, but there's really no unification, it's really just 'well this is what we have'. It honestly wouldn't shock me if they go for a rental in a week or so.

The other issue, though, is a bit more concerning. This season, the Guardians have called up a ton of big-time prospect hitters, all of whom have the future of the franchise upon their shoulders mightily. We've seen the likes of Johnathan Rodriguez, Jose Tena, Kyle Manzardo, Angel Martinez, Jhonkensy Noel and Tyler Schneemann. This in addition to organizational prospects Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio and Bo Naylor, who've been up in the majors most of the season. And if all of these players have something in common, it's that they haven't especially factored into this season much at all for the Guardians. All of those players have a combined 0.7 WAR. Comparatively, Kwan and Ramirez together have a 6.3 WAR. 

And while there are good seasons amidst that pack, like Rocchio being excellent defensively and Martinez off to a nice start at the plate, a lot of these guys just haven't gotten anything going. And it's the kind of thing where the Guardians would activate somebody and go 'THIS IS IT, CODE RED, THIS GUY'S GONNA BE HUGE', and then he'd get there and hit .129. Like, Kyle Manzardo they were going 'OH HE'S GONNA BE OUR NEW POWER GUY', he hit no homers in 30 games. Cracked 13 of 'em in Columbus, couldn't get one in Cleveland. The Mariners did this as well, they'd bring up Jonatan Clase or Ryan Bliss going 'OH NO, POUR ONE OUT FOR BASEBALL MANUFACTURERS' and then a month later they have to awkwardly go 'also uh...Ryan Bliss has been uh...returned to Tacoma..'.

The Guardians have such a great team that it's not worrying at the moment that none of their future pieces have been inheriting the team as well as Kwan or Gimenez have. You can see some promising pieces, like Angel Martinez, who's hitting .262 in 17 games, and Jhonkensy Noel, who has 4 homers in 17 games, or even Schneemann, who's been a nice fellow utility guy to David Fry. It's just taken until now for anything that optimistic to come from this area.

I don't want to go from a team this good to just drumming around waiting for Bazzana after people start leaving. They need to build, and hopefully these are the guys that can help them do that.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically, a fun, contact-friendly outfielder from a team whose rookies HAVE shown up.