The Art of Running it Back

 

Spring Training is one of those times of extreme optimism. Everything's good, everything's promising, cause no games have been played yet. It could be anybody's year, and that includes us. Right now, there are 30 valid storylines being concocted towards a championship outcome, and since it's still February there's really no ruling out any of them. And you can make the joke of 'well, we can rule out the Rockies', and yeah, probably. But the Pirates, A's and White Sox are usually counted out and even they have more going on this year. 

But it's easier to look like a new team when you've made substantial moves towards a championship. The Pirates got some genuine big pieces this year, for once. The White Sox got Murakami plus a TON of solid options at multiple positions. The A's actually put money into the roster and have a team for the next few years. If your plan is just to 'run it back', then you're gonna get people saying 'they don't want to win'. And running it back can still be a valid way forward, the Dodgers mostly ran it back last year and it did well for them. But certain fanbases demand some effort. The Phillies fans by me are somewhat infuriated that the plan to fix an aging core is to simply run it back, forgetting that A.) the team strengthened its bullpen and has at least three organizational cornerstones hitting the majors this year, B.) they got to keep Schwarber's offense and Realmuto's defense, and C.) they don't have to be stuck with either Bo Bichette's defense or Nick Castellanos's anything. The general plan is 'run it back' but they still fixed what killed the team. 

However, not everyone is so lucky. Some teams just decide to run it back and insist they're still moving forward.

The Arizona Diamondbacks want the big takeaway from this offseason to be, 'see, we kept Ketel Marte, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen'. Forgetting that literally all three were highly sought after by other teams. The D-Backs were actively shopping Marte, even coming close to a deal with Seattle that backfired when the M's refused to part with Cole Young. Perhaps knowing that trading their young, upstart 2nd baseman to Arizona for a veteran rounding a top tier year didn't work well for them in the past, so there was no use getting Ketel Marte if they'd be giving up another, younger Ketel Marte. Kelly returning to AZ was a surprise, and Gallen came back only after several teams, including the Cubs and Orioles, balked at the suggested number he had in mind. There is a universe where the D-Backs lose all three players, and possibly even Perdomo as well [he was reportedly shopped too] and still have to play the 'we're still running it back' game. 

In addition to the three players the D-Backs kept that they almost didn't, the only real players the team brought on were 'let's see what they have left' guys. Mike Soroka keeps being brought onto teams with the belief that what was glimpsed in 2018 could return, but we're still waiting for that. Carlos Santana will be 40 this year, and he's almost completely lost his ability to hit for power. And Nolan Arenado...no one is quite sure what he has left. He wasn't *terrible* for the Cardinals last season, but it was the most human year of his career, and the most injury-plagued one too. His defense is still above average, but that bat isn't what it was, and unless the soon-to-be-35-year-old has something else up his sleeve, he'll be a high priced defensive upgrade that will exist to keep Jordan Lawlar from starting [again]. Arenado is no longer the boost that he was, and he may have more in common with Evan Longoria in 2023...though Longo had a better team around him then.

The D-Backs running it [diamond]back in a year where the Dodgers are still expected to win the division and the Padres and Giants are still expected to compete is an odd move. It's better than fully giving up, and I think they know they've been right there the past few years and could boost over, but I'm not sure if it'll work this time.

The Astros, meanwhile, have a similar 'run it back' strategy even if some substantial changes have been made. Jesus Sanchez, a crucial deadline pickup from last year, was dealt for Joey Loperfido, and Tatsuya Imai was brought in as a starting option. However, the issue with running it back from 2025 is that this year, the majority of the contingency plans are in camp together with the people they subbed in for with injuries. Which means Brandon Walter, Spencer Arrighetti and Cristian Javier are competing with Jason Alexander, A.J. Blubaugh and Colton Gordon for rotation spots, in addition to newcomers Tatsuya Imai and Mike Burrows, plus preexisting locks Hunter Brown, Lance McCullers and...wait, what? How...that's like 10 people fighting for 5 spots. 

Like, I get the idea of preparing for injuries by putting in contingency starters, but you're now ensuring like 5 other people who are MLB-ready will either be doing long relief work or starting in Triple-A. Mike Burrows was doing fairly well in Pittsburgh, he gets traded to Houston and now we're not even sure if he's gonna make the team. I actually think he's got a nice shot to make the rotation, but then who doesn't? Is Jason Alexander getting cut? This was supposed to be the summer of George!

More confusing still is what the Astros plan on doing with their lineup. Last year at the deadline they traded for Carlos Correa, opting for a 2016 reunion in the wake of Isaac Paredes's injury. Paredes eventually came back and they traded off for the postseason push...of a postseason that didn't actually happen for this team. This year, the plan seems to be starting Correa at third...which, again was only due to convenience last year, then starting Paredes at DH, and...for some reason getting Yordan Alvarez to play left field everyday. I don't think that's sustainable. You're saying you'd rather have Alvarez's defense than Paredes's, which I don't completely agree with. If anything, Paredes should get more reps at first, as Christian Walker may be on the downslope.

It illuminates the problem with running it back, because if you're running it back with everyone who was there last time, without, like...letting people go and standing down the roster to an actual manageable unit, then it's gonna be chaos! Then deserving people aren't gonna be able to start, they're gonna ask to be traded and the league opinion of the organization is gonna go down further, even after the cheating. It just makes no sense to me, at least at this stage of the spring. I do know the Astros have a way of working things out, even if it doesn't look possible on paper. So even with all this they could still compete this year. 

This is why I'm not a GM. I'm way too pragmatic about it. There's so many moves that don't make sense to me because I only see it from the outside perspective. So maybe running it back works for one of these teams, or maybe both. Or, y'know...I'm right, and then some team can hire me to be assistant GM. 

2026: Mind the Elephant Dung

 

It's not as if the MLB hasn't done a 'let's pretend everything's normal' season before. You saw it in 1995. You saw it in 2020 and 2021, after the pandemic. You saw it after free agency began in the 70s. There is always going to be an effort, whenever there is something that, in a just world, would lead to work stoppage or a deliberation, for the people who lie and die by the revenue to go 'okay, from the top, just like the last time'. 

More than even 2023, the league seems headed for not just a players' strike, but a complete lockout. The wealth disparity between owners has become ridiculous, with teams like the Dodgers able to routinely buy championships, and teams like the Guardians [who, keep in mind, also have CEOs with plenty of money] not at all able to compete. The players are gonna go towards the best offers to sustain their lifestyles, and the guys with the bigger pockets are gonna have those, so they're gonna keep winning. Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and Tyler Soderstrom will be making Shohei Ohtani money for their solid but not overly spectacular gameplay. And so the owners' immediate response is, 'okay, let's pay everyone less and do a salary cap'. Not to actually put more money into the team and try as much as the top guys are. No, bring them down and justify their lack of spending. 

It's 100% true that every MLB player, and MiLB player, deserves the right to earn enough to make a living. But if there's a pay disparity, the workers should not be blamed or penalized, the owners and CEOs should. Without players, there is no product, as the owners will likely find out in a year's time. If you want to bring in revenue, you need to pay your star players, or any players, what they are worth. We know what happens when an owner doesn't do this, and it leads to a mass talent exodus that makes John Fisher only the SECOND-worst owner in A's history. Now, it's also an issue when the lack of talent on the field, and the lack of ticket sales, doesn't provide an incentive for owners to spend because they own 3 or 4 other things with more immediate revenue. 

Regardless, something needs to be done. I'm of the opinion that a salary floor should be implemented above all else, to incentivize the Bob Nuttings and Pohlads of this world to actually build teams. Some cap might need to be in there as well None of the players' union people want a salary cap, even with Tony Clark conveniently leaving his position ahead of the union a year or so before deliberations begin [it's still bad what he did, I just think the timing of it coming out is really suspicious]. You have two stubborn camps, one with money and one without, and like in 2023, and 1994, you can kind of guess who's gonna cave first. Whether or not the solution will actually help anyone, that's another thing entirely.

But with all this a year away, and with the tensions between the owners and players still relatively high [remember, Bryce Harper nearly beat the shit out of Rob Manfred last year], there's still a season of baseball that needs to be played. Which means everyone needs to act like there isn't gonna be a work stoppage next year and deliver an exciting season. Easy, right?

There's obviously a lot of great storylines to follow this season. The Cubs are certainly one of them. Yes, they lost Kyle Tucker, but they gained Alex Bregman, still an elite third baseman and an upgrade from Matt Shaw in several ways. Bregman-Swanson-Hoerner-Busch may be one of the best infields in the league, on a count of how much can be produced, and how much value you're getting. The Cubs have reportedly tried to trade Nico Hoerner, but I wouldn't dream of it considering how valuable he's been for them, and how consistent he's been since 2022. With the Brewers looking to continue their sleeper-hit status and the Reds looking to compete without overdoing it, the Cubs are the favorite for 1st in the NL Central. Y'know, like last year. Is this the team that actually gets over the hump?

A lot of really cool stuff could happen in this season. Konnor Griffin might be ready in Pittsburgh, and that team might have enough to sneak into the conversation. The Athletics might be a playoff team this year, and have the contracts to last them through the Vegas premiere. Murakami might be the piece that gets the White Sox out of 'laughable' status. Andrew Painter might FINALLY get to start MLB games. Ohtani and Judge might chase 50 again. There's all sorts of promise and excitement, and I really hope this year can deliver, even if it's looking pretty likely that we might not get a full season next year. 

My Unofficial Hall of Ballot for 2026

 The wild part about collecting and following baseball for 19 odd years has been seeing players that were active when I was finding my place in the baseball atmosphere now being discussed for Hall of Fame enshrinement. Virtually everyone on the current ballot was around when I was collecting, and a couple cases, namely Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence, began their careers the very year I started actively collecting new products. The first big shift was seeing Greg Maddux and Frank Thomas get in, cause those guys were just wrapping up their careers yet still loomed large. And then when Jeter, Halladay and Rivera got in it was a sense of seeing some of my heroes whose primes I witnessed firsthand getting immortalized.

And so now, we've reached a Hall of Fame ballot featuring guys who retired as recently as 2020. That's a sobering thought. We're beginning to run thin on guys from the 2000s, though at least two of them will be getting in today. We're also headed towards a bumper crop of surefire heroes of the 2010s, one of which is coming immediately next year and a few more of which will be first ballot submissions between 2028 and 2029. So this year is...ultimately another 'catch-up' year, with no first year standouts [the nearest HOF bet of the newcomers likely has to do another 5 or so years on the ballot in order to get the traction], and the majority of the votes going to two guys who have 'done their time', in a sense. 

Like usual, I'll allow myself the usual guidelines of Hall of Fame voters, despite the fact that no one in their right minds would ever let me cast an actual ballot. I can go up to ten names, and I don't think I'll do all ten. Fundamentally, I've counted out anyone suspected of steroid use [even Andy Pettitte, sudden surge notwithstanding], and I've looked long and hard in order to separate the 'legendary' cases from the 'very good' cases. There are some people on this unofficial ballot that I didn't think were worthy until the case was made cumulatively, and there'll be people on this ballot that the case hasn't been made for yet but could come very soon.

So, as usual, we'll start with a tough sell that seems to be becoming less and less tough:

Bobby Abreu:

Last week when Kyle Tucker signed with the Dodgers, a lot of people I know were complaining about the size of the per-year dollars he'd be getting, a sign that teams are paying some guys more money than they really deserve, which I do think is an issue generally. But the line that was used was 'the Dodgers just spent 70 million a year for Bobby Abreu'. And like...that's kind of an insult to Bobby Abreu. Cause you're saying that if Abreu was around today he'd be one of the most valued players in the game. Because he played during the 2000s, and for a middling Phillies team for most of his career, it's impossible to make a case for Abreu as a game changer. But the way I look at it is that now that Tony Oliva and Dick Allen are in, two guys with consistent contact ability over a long period of time, without the 'omg' stats of their contemporaries, it's been proven that if you're a generational hitter with no atrophy for more than 5 or so years, there's a case to be made for you. Bobby Abreu had a 41.6 WAR from 1998 to 2004, with a .308 average, 1212 hits, 203 stolen bases and 3 100 RBI seasons. Frustratingly he didn't win his first gold glove or make his first All Star team til his 30s. The tell is that in his prime, I'd say with certainty that anybody would have wanted Abreu on their team, as the guy was a swiss army knife of usefulness. He's trending slightly upward this year, but I'm not sure if he'll have accumulated the votes by 2030. Still, can't deny what a great player he was.

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 15%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 50%

Carlos Beltran:

I think around 2013 or so, people were convinced that even if Beltran wasn't a first-ballot guy, he definitely had a chance. And this was in a period where even Adrian Beltre wasn't a lock. Carlos Beltran went from being a jack of all trades contact speedster in Kansas City to being a perennial playoff threat with the Astros, Mets and Cardinals. He finished his career with 435 home runs, 2725 hits, 7 100+ RBI seasons and, dubiously, a World Series ring. I completely agree with the stigma of the cheating robbing him of even a second or third year entry. But now it just seems like we're done kidding ourselves. The 2017 sign-stealing scandal was messed up, and there was a possibility he would have taken that mentality to the Mets in 2020. But, as opposed to the steroid abusers that have evaded induction, the sign-stealing takes only a year off of Beltran's career, and the worst year of his career at that. Taking 2017 out of the equation, he's still a Hall of Famer, and he's still a true 2000s legend. 

Team of Induction: Kansas City Royals

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 98%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 100%

Cole Hamels:

You're gonna notice that there are a lot of 2008 Phillies on my ballot. There may be a slight bias, but at the same time, it's not like I did this for the 2009 Yankees. You never saw Alex Rodriguez on one of these, or Mark Teixeira, or Andy Pettitte or A.J. Burnett. Next year you're not gonna see Cano on here. But those 2000s Phillies teams had so many special, imitable guys that managed to have careers to match. Cole Hamels was one of them. Initially you may not read him as a wall-to-wall all-timer starter, but as many people have written about this year, the definition of the Hall of Fame starter has changed because nobody's starting 35 games a year anymore, nobody's going more than 6 innings and nobody's going as long without an injury as they used to. Cole Hamels is one of the last of that generation of consistent big game pitchers, because from 2007 to 2016, he was one of the most valuable pitchers in the game. During that run, Hamels had a 46.5 WAR, a 3.26 ERA, 1977 strikeouts, 127 games and 7 shutouts, including a no-hitter at Wrigley to cap off his Phillies career. Hamels had 7 postseason wins for the Phillies, including a shutout. and is in the rare breed of player to win NCLS MVP and World Series MVP in the same season. Cole Hamels isn't gonna go in this year, but I do think he has a case, and I think a lot of BBWAA voters have picked up on this as well.

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 20%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 72%

Felix Hernandez:

Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers of the 2010s. His contemporaries are all locks. Kershaw's getting in. Greinke's getting in. Sale is most likely getting in. deGrom might eventually. Felix, when he was on, was better than arguably all of them except for Kershaw. From 2007 to 2015, Hernandez had 127 wins, 1889 Ks and a 3.00 ERA. What a goshdarned run. Dude struck out 200 or more every year from '09 to '14. He won a Cy Young by just not allowing runs, and nearly won another one with a better Mariners team [Kluber kinda deserved it that year though]. The post-30 drop-off is real, but as I'm literally about to discuss, that's not a vote-killer anymore. It's looking like this year has greatly buttressed Felix's case, and he may be only a couple years away. In my opinion it can't come soon enough.

Team of Induction: Seattle Mariners

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 30%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 80%

Andruw Jones:

The other 'we're done kidding ourselves' one this year. Andruw Jones, from 1996 to 2006, was the reason the Braves kept competing and making NLCSs, and the reason why the team didn't completely decay once Jones, Maddux and Glavine got older. You NEED a young guy who can do anything to come up right when your team's getting old, and Jones was that guy. Incredible defensive outfielder, incredible power hitter. In 2005 he had 51 homers and 128 RBIs, and this was after years of 30 homer/100 RBI campaigns. It was, almost like Jose Abreu, the 'cherry on top' season. And yes, it has been established that he completely hit a wall after 30, but the Hall of Fame doesn't seem to mind that anymore. As we're gonna see next year, the HOF can handle a small sample size if what happened during that run was top class, and I think now it's clear Jones was that good. Part of me thinks we needed the full case to develop, cause I certainly didn't think this when he came onto the ballot, but it's great that it's finally happened.

Team of Induction: Atlanta Braves

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 88%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 100%

Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins:

I have grouped these two together because they are both valid HOF cases for almost completely different reasons. Utley was overwhelmingly excellent for a 5 year period and coasted everything else off of that, while Rollins was steadily good for his whole 15 years and was nice enough, and level-headed enough, to let that do all of the work. The biggest argument towards Utley getting in, as of a month ago, is 'you idiots voted in Jeff Kent despite being replacement level for half his career and arguing with the whole league'. Chase Utley's biggest statistical serve is his 2005-2009 run, where he had a cumulative 39.7 WAR, a .301 average, 146 home runs and 875 hits. This was also during his '5 straight All Star Games' run, and the 2008 postseason is right in that range. Jeff Kent was league-leader-tier for a far shorter time than that and he's in now. Utley should be in. So what if he pissed people off? Apparently that's not a dealbreaker anymore. As for Rollins, he was a perennial all-star and gold-glover at SS, won an MVP in 2007 just by showing up everyday and contact-hitting like hell, has 470 career steals and 2455 career hits, and was an important, multifaceted piece of the Phillies for 15 years. He's probably the biggest reach of anybody on this ballot, but he was consistent, versatile and a clubhouse leader. Utley's more likely of the two to get in, but J-Rol should not be slept on.

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

% Chance of 2025 Induction: (Utley) 72% (Rollins) 18%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: (Utley) 100% (Rollins) 45%

That's all I'm doing this year. Buehrle and K-Rod are on the line for me but not enough for 2026. I'm thinking Beltran and Jones are in and Utley will come close but fall just short. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Yankees

 

If the last year or so has taught me anything, it is this: everybody wants to play in New York. They just don't realize it til it's too late that they don't want to play for the Yankees.

In 2024, the Yankees had the biggest star in the game come to them and play beautifully, and then he decided the Mets were respecting him more. This year, Cody Bellinger had an incredible year with the Yankees, and now it's looking like Scott Boras is making a deal very difficult. Devin Williams, Luke Weaver and Clay Holmes are all suiting up for the Mets next year after we seemed to burn our bridges with them. The only people that haven't fled the Bronx have been Paul Blackburn and Amed Rosario. And meanwhile, we gave Caleb Durbin to Milwaukee, gave Michael King a much firmer place to start in San Diego, Drew Thorpe will start for the Sox this year if he's healthy enough, and in a year or two Roc Riggio is gonna hit 40 homers in Coors Field. We're much better at improving other teams than we are at improving our own.

The Yankees still had the third-highest record in baseball this year, delivered an MVP season for Aaron Judge, and was home to several great seasons from a variety of role-players. But that wasn't enough either. The Jays were better than us, and could consistently show up in October. And so here we are, still trying to win a World Series for the first time since Steinbrenner was still alive. Will it happen in 2026? For the low, low price of 199.99, a Yankee championship could be yours..

Austin Wells was the primary choice at catcher this year, as Jose Trevino was flipped to Cincinnati for a strong year of Fernando Cruz. Wellsy has his perks but he's not perfect. In 126 games he hit .219 with 21 homers and 71 RBIs, a very average offensive season. Defensively he was a liability this year. We've gotta do better than 'Wells or Rice' as a catching platoon, man.

2026 Prediction: A colossal improvement. I'm not sure if it'll be enough to become THE guy back there for the next 10 years, but it'll do the trick.

In a year without Gerrit Cole, and in a year where Luis Gil would be out for several months, the last spot in the rotation, behind Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and Clarke Schmidt, went to rookie Will Warren. Warren had some chances in 2024, but was still a risk for a rotation spot right after a championship. Sure enough, Warren was one of two Yankees to make all 33 starts, and went 9-8 with a 4.44 ERA, 171 Ks and 80 earned runs in 162 innings. A little messy, and a bit too many long balls, but the sort of heat that the Yankee fans could get behind.

2026 Prediction: He'll be 27, and he just pitched a full season of high velocity work as a rookie. See ya in 2027. I'd love to be wrong and get another full campaign from him, but I just can't trust pitchers anymore.

Jasson Dominguez spent the entire year in the majors. He is 22 years old, still one of the most promising young players in baseball, and still reaching his full potential. Due to platooning him with Trent Grisham, Dominguez played 123 games, and hit .257 with 10 home runs and 47 RBIs. The moment simply has not come yet. It looked like it was here in 2023, when Dominguez was on fire on a call-up and aided the team before getting hurt, but he's really yet to take charge of an opportunity since then. I'm really worried Boone has given him the Yermin Mercedes effect, where he's been so warped by a manager's tough love that he can't perform to the standard.

2026 Prediction: It all comes down to whether or not the Yanks re-sign Bellinger. Cause if they do, and Grisham still takes seniority, we have another year of this. But if they don't, and Dominguez can start everyday, not only does he have a breakout year and 30 homers, but it's more of an incentive to get Spencer Jones up.

Clarke Schmidt only had 14 games up this year due to injuries, but he looked very good in them. In 79 innings he had a 3.32 ERA, 73 Ks and a 1.7 WAR. Very good use of our time. Sadly he didn't factor much into the team's progress in the second half.

2026 Prediction: Much fuller, healthier year. His free agency is coming up kinda soon, too, so it's about time.

And now, our bullpen, or as they will be known next year, the Mets' bullpen. Luke Weaver's been terrific for us since we turned him into a reliever, and this year he began to wear out his welcome slightly. In 64 games, Weaver had a 3.62 ERA, a 1.021 WHIP and 72 Ks, plus 8 saves as the Yanks went away from an initial closing choice. Granted, that higher ERA is a clue to why we needed bullpen help midyear. Weaver also had a 135.00 ERA in 3 postseason appearances so...yeah

2026 Prediction: Figures his shit out in Queens, becomes an ideal setup man again.

The biggest picture of 'the Yankees as the problem' came from Devin Williams, a sure shot in the ninth that didn't work at all here, despite the team bending the rules to let Williams keep his beard. Williams did not mesh well with this team, and with the moment; in 67 games he had a 4.79 ERA, with only 18 saves and a lot more blown ones. It's important to add that Williams was perfectly fine in an eighth inning role, and his 90 Ks in 62 innings gave us enough pure dominance to be placated by. But we traded Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin for the next great closer, and Williams was not that guy for us, despite everything that said he would be. He was, however, scoreless in 4 postseason innings, even getting a win. 

2026 Prediction: HUGE season in the ninth for the Mets. They'll move on from Edwin Diaz very quickly.

Luis Gil, as he tends to, missed some time with injuries this season, and when he returned you could tell he was still being very careful not to overexert himself. It seemed to work well enough in terms of dominance, as he had a 3.32 ERA, a 4-1 record and a 1 ERA in 11 starts, despite only 41 Ks. Gil needed to just keep balls in play and work carefully, and it seemed to work out, even if his postseason start didn't go especially well.

2026 Prediction: Much better year, much more on target and closer to 2024.

It initially baffled me when the Yankees traded for Amed Rosario, even sacrificing Clayton Beeter to do so, but Rosario became a very helpful utility bat for us. While a later addition would be the defensive version of this, Rosario had some cool power moments, hitting .303 with 10 hits, 5 RBIs and a home run in 16 games. He also had 3 hits and an RBI in 10 postseason at-bats. From the strength of this small sample size, the Yanks kept him on, making Rosario the only person to seem to prefer the Yankees to the Mets this decade.

2026 Prediction: Nowhere near as contact-friendly but he'll have some cool moments late.

Landing David Bednar from the Pirates was a huge move, as it finally gave us an effective closer after the last two had let us down. The man known as the Renegade had a rough start in the Bronx, but, as he had earlier this season, found his footing and became an excellent ninth inning man, with a 2.19 ERA, 4 wins, 35 Ks and 10 saves in 22 appearances. He also had a 1.50 ERA, 9 Ks and 2 saves in 6 postseason innings.

2026 Prediction: 35+ saves, the culmination of his whole career.

Shakier still was Camilo Doval, who'd led the league in saves a couple years ago for the Giants. Doval's control issues got the better of him in New York, and in 22 games he had a 4.82 ERA, plus a 1.607 WHIP. Doval figured some things out by October, and gave up 1 earned run in 3 postseason innings.

2026 Prediction: He just needed to adjust. Becomes a really nice relief asset for us, even if it's not pretty in points.

My personal favorite mid-year Yankee pickup was Jose Caballero, who was leading the AL in saves when we got him from the Rays. Cabby is insanely versatile, can play multiple infield positions, hits for contact and steals bases. We needed a guy like him, even if McMahon was taking most of the reps at 3rd. Cabby was a huge success with the Yanks, hitting .266 in 40 games, with 21 hits, 9 RBIs, 3 homers and 15 steals. He was limited in the postseason, but the fans seem to really like him.

2026 Prediction: If Volpe doesn't figure the big leagues out, Cabby might be a winning everyday shortstop. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it certainly could.

And that was 2025. It was a lot. Lots happened this year, in baseball and in general. I didn't post as much as I wanted. I dunno how often I'll post in 2026, or how often I'll have new cards worth posting about. We'll see where things go, I guess. As it stands, thanks for checking out the blog this year, and I hope you've enjoyed the writing and content. I hope to have near as much to say in the following 12 months, and I hope things are a little happier for all of us. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: White Sox

 

For the second year in a row, the Chicago White Sox, in lieu of a proven option, gave the Opening Day start to someone I had either never heard of or who only had a handful of major league starts to his name. Which genuinely feels like a sign of defeat from the jump.

Last year, of course, that no-name, 'why is he the only person here who can start Opening Day' choice turned out to be Garrett Crochet, now one of the best pitchers in the AL and the reason the White Sox's rebuild is accelerating at its current rate. This year, it was Sean Burke, who'd started a few games in 2024, and rather well at that. What bowled people over was the fact that the Opening Day rotation, consisting of Burke, Davis Martin, Martin Perez, Jonathan Cannon and surprise March call-up Shane Smith, managed to silence opposing teams, only allowing 2 runs in total in the first go through the rotation. Those two runs were both courtesy of Smith. Granted, this rotation wouldn't hold for the whole year, as Perez would get hurt and Cannon would need to go down, and they'd give Aaron Civale a try, but to have a pretty consistent rotation over the course of the season, with no particularly awful options, meant that the White Sox were definitely improving from being a gutter punchline in 2024. 

They still lost 102 games this year, but I now know who they are. As do they, I think. And now, at the very least, they've signed an actual crucial free agent, Munetaka Murakami, and while it is likely because 28 other teams passed, that's still an average of 18 more home runs than most current White Sox are capable of hitting nowadays.

Anyway, after a really nice Opening Day start, Sean Burke evened out and wound up with a very okay full season, with 28 games, 22 of them starts, 133 Ks, a 4.22 ERA and a 4-11 record, meaning Burke wound up with the most losses of any White Sock. To be fair, I think Chris Flexen ended 2024 with like 90 losses, so it just feels like an improvement.

2026 Prediction: Gets another shot in the Opening Day rotation, does better but misses time due to an injury.

This'll be a cool 'fun fact' in a couple years' time: the most home runs of any White Sox player in 2025 came not from Andrew Benintendi, Luis Robert or even Colson Montgomery, but from middle infield guy Lenyn Sosa, who cracked 22, and actually did a lot of nice power stuff with 75 RBIs and a .261 average. He's not perfect, and led the team in strikeouts with 127, but it's nice that somebody managed to move forward offensively on this team.

2026 Prediction: Well...look. Chase Meidroth is gonna be the answer at 2nd. Colson Montgomery is gonna be the answer at short. Miguel Vargas seems to have third. Up until very recently I assumed Sosa would be the guy at first, but then this Murakami guy landed and I'm now thinking he might take a lot of the reps, assuming he's not a full-time DH. So Sosa is gonna have to be a bench bat/utility guy, and his defense isn't really befitting of that. So who knows, really.

Jonathan Cannon also began the year in the rotation, and unlike Davis Martin and Sean Burke, Cannon didn't display much growth from that dismal 2024 year. In 22 games he had a 5.82 ERA, a 1.486 WHIP, and some time in Charlotte.

2026 Prediction: Okay, so the way things are looking right now, the White Sox' Opening Day rotation is looking like it'll be Shane Smith, Anthony Kay, Davis Martin, Sean Burke, and either Sean Newcomb or a fully rehabilitated Drew Thorpe. You also have to remember that at some point, the White Sox are gonna call on Hagen Smith. And Ky Bush might factor into things as well. I'm saying all of this because I don't think Jonathan Cannon will be doing much starting next year, and honestly he might have better luck as a long reliever.

Since coming back from Korea, Mike Tauchman has been a Chicago bench favorite, and he continued that run into the South Side after two years with the Cubs. Tauchman wound up as one of the highlights of the White Sox this year, hitting .263 with 9 homers and 40 RBIs in 93 games, shortened by injuries. I think Tauchman's cut came because of how confident the Sox were in building their homegrown outfield, even if they still trade Robert. They seem to think Brooks Baldwin is the guy in right, and I feel like they have someone getting ready in center at some point. 

2026 Prediction: Honestly, the Padres could really use a guy like him, or maybe somebody like the Reds or Giants. 

The Sox' top relief specialist was rookie Mike Vasil, who took a charter role in the bullpen and absolutely took off, with a 2.50 ERA and 82 Ks in 101 innings. His 2.9 WAR was the 3rd-highest on the team, and the highest of anyone who made the Opening Day roster. Very cool that Vasil and Smith, two Opening Day rookies, were some of the most valuable White Sox at year's end. 

2026 Prediction: They're going with Jordan Leasure as RP1, so Vasil will be the chief relief specialist without needing to close, and will have a very strong first half. I worry that all that work will lead to overexertion though.

Martin Perez was an Opening Day rotation member that had a stellar run, got hurt and finished the year strong. Though he only had 11 games in Chicago this year, the veteran starter had a 3.54 ERA, a 1.107 WHIP and 44 Ks. He did wind up with 6 losses, which I attribute to rough run support.

2026 Prediction: Somebody's gotta sign him, right? He can still pitch. He's 34, very much still that guy. The trouble is I think Jose Quintana's cornering his market a bit, and the people who miss out on Quintana might have to settle for Perez.

Coming Tomorrow- At long last, the end of December, which means I have to talk about how my Yanks blew it again.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Twins

 

In May 2025, the Minnesota Twins won 13 games in a row, including 6 wins against the Orioles, and key matchups against playoff teams Boston and Milwaukee. 

From August 15, 2025, until the end of the season, the Minnesota Twins won only...13 games.

So something clearly happened. And that something was the organization completely giving up.

After the deadline, not only were some of the few short-term successes, like Harrison Bader, Chris Paddack, Ty France and Willi Castro, gone, but so were some long term organizational pieces like Carlos Correa, Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran, Louie Varland and Danny Coulombe. By the end of the season, Rocco Baldelli would join them out the door. So now, going into 2026, the Twins only have a few strong pieces remaining. Byron Buxton is still there, but how healthy will he be at 32? Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan are still starting weapons, provided they're not dealt in the next two months. Royce Lewis is still there, assuming he doesn't miss 80 games again. And Luke Keaschall, Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel and David Festa will all factor into this team's development. Eventually.

But it's clear that the dream of the Baldelli years is over, the Bomba squad is all but dead, and the new task needs to be reestablishing an identity. I will most likely be checking in on the Twins in Ft. Myers this spring, and hopefully what I have to report back with is remotely positive. 

For now, there is at least the fact that the Twins got 27 starts out of Bailey Ober this year. They weren't the highest quality, and he had a 5.10 ERA and a 6-9 record, but he was there for the Twins all year, topped out at 146 innings and ensured they at least had two guys they could count on all year.

2026 Prediction: A much better year. Not sure if he'll still be around by August though.

Trevor Larnach has consistently attempted to legitimize himself without being an altogether impressive ballplayer. He's never hit above .260, he's never notched 20 homers, his defense is nonexistent, and this was his fullest season yet at 142 games, and his most disposable. Larnach hit .250 with 17 homers and 60 RBIs, fine for a mid-lineup bat but I really thought he'd be on a better pace by now.

2026 Prediction: Loses playing time to younger, and better, competitors.

Similarly, Ryan Jeffers, who had a terrific year in 2023 as a difference-making contact catcher, has mellowed out to being perfunctory both offensively and defensively. This year, Jeffers hit .266 with 9 homers and 47 RBIs, offensively more on target than last year. Trouble is his defense is an issue now. Meaning at a certain point Christian Vazquez felt like a defensive upgrade.

2026 Prediction: At some point, the Twins are gonna give Noah Cardenas a shot, and Jeffers' days may be numbered in Minnesota.

Royce Lewis is the definition of a novelty. When he's healthy, he blasts homers out of Target Field at an alarming pace. But he's NEVER healthy. This was Lewis's fullest season yet, at 106 games, and also his least noteworthy. He hit 13 homers and had 53 RBIs, with a .671 OPS. Big whup. Not much better defensively either.

2026 Prediction: It will be his age 27 season. Sometimes, somebody can do something incredible at 27 and then go back to how it was before. I'm thinking Lewis will fall into that category.

In a move that initially confused fans, the Phillies sent Kody Clemens to Minnesota midyear, in what would later become a move to free up space for Otto Kemp. Clemens had no trouble finding playing time in Minneapolis, and took 1st from Ty France after he left, doing a pretty bang-up job, with 19 homers and 52 RBIs in 112 games. I think Clemens is best used as a backup/utility guy, but even in a starting role with a dire team he was one of the highlights.

2026 Prediction: May start occasionally but I think the Twins will use him mostly as a backup 1B, assuming they have any desire to make Josh Bell play 1st at all.

Coming Tomorrow- I was not expecting I'd have this many White Sox left. They actually seemed to figure out what the future looks like after a bit.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Tigers

I'm not sure what people will remember more about the Tigers' 2025 season: that they blew a commanding lead over the division, that they still managed to beat the actual AL Central winner in a playoff series, or that they still ended up losing anyway. 

The Tigers immediately cemented themselves as a league power in the first half after an underdog come-up in 2024. Then so many of the pieces that had brought them forward, including Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize and Javier Baez, stuttered down the stretch. The deadline retoolings, which were intended to be minor fixes, ended up looking that much worse as the team fell apart. And even if the Tigers stood a chance against the Mariners, the script had flipped. Any leverage they had in the first half was gone, and all the momentum was held by a now much-stronger Mariners team. Thus, even with Tarik Skubal, their road ended at the ALDS.

I still think the Tigers will compete going forward, and a lot of the pieces are still hanging around. You keep hearing they're gonna try to trade Skubal, but you're also hearing they're trying to sign Bregman. They're still trying to move forward, and with Max Clark still on the way there's still a ceiling for this team.

The Bregman rumors seem to make sense, considering that one of the main choices at 3rd has been Colt Keith, and...he's fine. He's a 2nd/3rd guy, and he also played the majority of games this year at DH, which should tell you a lot about his appeal as a defender. The good news is he was better at the plate, hitting .256 with 13 homers and 45 RBIs. His OPS was .746, way better than last year, and he's at the very least beginning to find staying power in the league. But the Tigers thought Keith was gonna be a strong option at 3rd and he's been incomplete so far. 

2026 Prediction: I think the Tigers are going to get an upgrade at third, McKinstry's gonna get more reps elsewhere, and Keith might need to be a backup/DH type. I think that'll work for everyone.

Another 2024 rookie that sought to play a larger role in the 2025 team [only to somehow have less of a presence than last year anyway] was Keider Montero. He was a depth starter this year who was phased out in favor of...Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack. Mostly because he wasn't all the way great yet. Montero had 20 appearances, 12 of them starts, and had a 4.37 ERA, 72 Ks and a 5-3 record. He also went scoreless in 5.1 postseason innings. 

2026 Prediction: Starts more down the stretch, an insane sub-2.50 ERA run happens, has a crucial postseason start.

Like last year, Parker Meadows was limited to only an addition during the stretch run. While he was the 'magic hat' that fueled the Tigers' postseason push in 2024, Meadows could only add so much this year in 58 games, hitting .215 with 16 RBIs and 4 homers.

2026 Prediction: Well it would be really great if he had a full season of work, cause I think he'd be able to put together a winning campaign. I think it will happen next year, to the tune of a .300 average.

The Tigers' bullpen was full of really strong options this year, and somehow without many of the usual suspects [Jason Foley, Alex Lange] contributing. For most of the season, the Tigers used a platoon of two different guys as the main closer, and the most successful one was Will Vest. I had Vest on my fantasy team for a while, and he was a really nice pickup, locking in with any role the Tigers gave him. In 61 games he had a 3.01 ERA, 75 Ks and 23 saves. He was also scoreless in 8 postseason innings, with 9 Ks and a save.

2026 Prediction: Leads the bullpen in appearances, takes most of the big relief assignments and takes the odd save when pressed.

The Tigers also had Tommy Kahnle, fresh off a strong year in New York. Kahnle's output took a step down this year, with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.302 WHIP in 63 innings. He still managed 9 saves, and had a nice run in May/June before things sort of fell off.

2026 Prediction: Rox invite him to camp, he trails off where his career started.

Much like when Mike Elias did it, the Tigers puzzled people by trading for Charlie Morton at the deadline. Yes, he locked in halfway through May and started playing like himself, but he was still 45 and had the potential to fall off. While his first couple Tigers starts were pretty good, the old Morton returned, and he was cut in September after posting a 7.09 ERA with 31 earned runs in 9 games. He retired as a Brave, fittingly. He could have maybe legged it out in Baltimore rather than spoiling a division title for the Tigers, but they thought this might help. 

One deadline deal that did help was bringing hometown boy Kyle Finnegan over after a great run in Washington. Finnegan got hurt midway through August, so he didn't get to do as much as fans wanted, but he was still an impressive closing option, with a 1.50 ERA in 16 games, plus 4 saves. In 6 postseason appearances he had a 3.86 ERA, a little shakier with tougher opponents. It didn't deter the Tigers though, as he's on for another two years in Detroit.

2026 Prediction: Well, seeing as Kenley Jansen will be in town next year, I don't think he's gonna be a 30 save guy, but I do think he'll be a killer, 2 ERA setup man. 

Coming Tomorrow- A few of the people who were still left in Minneapolis when the year ended.