The Cardinals Continue to Baffle Me

 

I think there's probably a connection between whether or not I like a team and whether I can understand when they start doing well. Because I'm very logic-based, I try to imagine that most teams have ebbs and flows in the usual way, and that when a team takes a few years to regroup they'll surface when they really have the right team, or when a team starts losing key players they'll ultimately stop winning games. The Astros and the Cardinals routinely defy this logic, and I believe it's specifically to vex me.

The Cardinals have won only 5 games since May 17th, have to trot Dustin May out there every five days and start Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott daily, and yet they're still 2nd in the NL Central and generally well regarded. This week has been all about the Pirates scoring 10+ runs repeatedly, Chase Burns allowing no runs and PCA getting his groove back and yet here we still are with this Cardinals team ahead of them.

There are elements that work, of course. J.J. Wetherholt, Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, Jordan Walker and Nathan Church are all having excellent seasons and earning their right to start everyday. Michael McGreevy's having a terrific full season ahead of the rotation, with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.101 WHIP. Riley O'Brien has 15 saves. Nelson Velasquez keeps making contact. Yes, of course all of that is good. I'm so relieved that Jordan Walker can actually perform at the MLB level after all this time. That is valid and good and happening. Beyond that this is a very dull, okay team. 

What is this rotation, even beyond McGreevy. Last year at least they had Sonny Gray and his strikeouts. Now what do they have? Dustin May can strike people out and go deep but he has ZERO wins above replacement and it's June. Matthew Liberatore still cannot get his ERA below 4. Andre Pallante and Kyle Leahy would both be great 5th options on a better team. The idea is for McGreevy to be the Jack Flaherty type young guy the team can rally around, but McGreevy's a very simple, low-strikeout control artist and to me that's not enough to lead with. The Guardians can do that with Messick because they have Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee already. There's just...no depth, man. Richard Fitts is done for the year, Roby and Hjerpe are hurt, Tink Hence is struggling so bad he's been moved to relief, and they tried Bryson Mautz and he wasn't ready. So we're stuck with these five. Yay. 

The Cardinals could, for all intents and purposes, compete with this team. But literally every other NL Central team has a better rotation than they do. At least the Cubs have Imanaga, I'd take him over McGreevy. I just don't get excited about these guys. If they improve over time, like the Brewers' rotation last year, then great. I just don't see it right now. 

The other teams are circling the Cardinals, and I'm expecting them to drop in the standings a bit. Remains to be seen whether they're still competitors, though part of me thinks they'll persist mainly to spite, and confuse, me.

Coming Tonight: The Tigers gave this guy away and have struggled to fill third base ever since. Astros are doing just fine there though.

Any Which Way You Draft

 

So, to recap. The 2026 Minnesota Twins have, at the MLB level, currently:

-Byron Buxton, 2012 2nd overall pick.

-Alex Jackson, 2014 6th overall pick.

-Royce Lewis, 2017 1st overall pick.

-Trevor Larnach, 2018 1st round pick.

-Ryan Jeffers, 2018 2nd round pick.

-Matt Wallner, 2019 1st round pick.

-Austin Martin, 2020 5th overall pick.

-Mick Abel, 2020 1st round pick.

-Brooks Lee, 2022 8th overall pick.

-Connor Prielipp, 2022 2nd round pick.

-Luke Keaschall, 2023 2nd round pick.

All of these people were picked high for a reason, and the Twins themselves picked all but three of them. The goal was to draft, or accumulate, the kind of prospects to build a great team out of. Now...with all of these people on the active roster...how come nothing's getting done?

It blows my mind that people like Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis could look so good out of college or high school, get to the MLB level and continue to blow opportunities. Wallner is the kind of athlete you could build in a lab, and they still can't get him to hit for average. Royce Lewis can hit home runs like crazy, but only for 2 weeks out of the year, in between injuries and slumps. Larnach's a decent power hitter but he's more okay than anything. I also think about Brooks Lee, who came up as this incredible shortstop prospect, one who got Carlos Correa traded to get himself more room there...and as of a week ago, starting Lee at short is no longer a viable option. So now he's a third baseman. Let's see, who's the nearest shortstop in that draft- oh, Zach Neto. He'd have been a good career shortstop. Or...would he have been if the Twins drafted him?

I give Lee shit for blowing the SS job but he's actually having a halfway decent season. He's hitting .252 with 8 homers and 35 RBIs, and is one of the best non-Buxton plate performers the Twins have right now. Keaschall's also beginning to heat up, and he's got 10 stolen bases already. If Jeffers had stayed healthy it'd have been a nice top of the order, and guys like Tristan Gray, Austin Martin and Ryan Kreider providing excellent bench work. Granted, not much depth beyond that though, but I think the Twins are at the point where they're just trying shit out and seeing if that works better than the original plan.

Case in point: the Twins just cut Simeon Woods-Richardson, after a dismal 0-7, 7.74 ERA start, and sent him back to his initial system in Toronto. The plan is to go with a four man rotation of Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews and Connor Prielipp [which is actually a pretty decent combination considering Matthews and Prielipp's ceilings], plus an added bullpen slot as they debate whether to stretch out Mike Paredes all the way. At some point either Mick Abel or Bailey Ober will come back anyhow. And honestly...for a team that everyone was assuming would be a last place punchline, that's not bad at all. It makes me wish the team hit better.

The Twins do theoretically have enough to stay ahead of the Royals, but the Royals want out of last very badly, and won't be afraid to really go crazy to get to that point. 

Coming Tomorrow- The Cardinals have a very young rotation, and technically he's the ace. So he's beginning to act like one.

Looks Max-ing

 

[This title is one of the serious downsides of there still being a relatively young person in the blogosphere. Also, no, I couldn't tell you what it means either.]

The Marlins are usually deeply weird, but this year is a new breed of abject strangeness. This Marlins team is one where Otto Lopez is highly likely to make an All-Star team and has a batting title, Liam Hicks is vying for an RBI title, all but three active batters have a WAR of less than 0.5, two of the best power hitters with MLB experience are sitting in Jacksonville waiting for Joe Mack or Connor Norby to have a stroke, three necessary starters are hurt [one of which immediately after making his MLB debut] and another is pitching so poorly that HE'S sitting in Jacksonville, and the bullpen may be one of the Top 5 in all of baseball. Essentially hollow at the plate, above average on the mound despite the swiss cheese.

Just once I want to write about a normal Marlins team that just wins a division and has stars and isn't a barrel of nonsense. Just one time.

In all of the pitching uncertainty, Max Meyer has emerged as a relatively strong ace. It's been a rocky road for Meyer, missing a few years with injuries, coming back last year and struggling some more before eventually finding his footing. This year he's been terrific, going 6-0 with a 2.81 ERA and 81 Ks in 13 starts. It's upsetting it took him until 27 to reach this point, but he's here now, and his work, plus occasional greatness from Sandy Alcantara [he does have a CGSHO under his belt this year], are aiding this team tremendously. Beyond that, they're stretching out Tyler Phillips as a starter again, and while it didn't go well in Philly it's worked fine so far. I'm not sure what the heck their plan is beyond that, but I would guess Bradley Blalock would get a go, and possibly Braxton Garrett again if he behaves this time. 

The lineup, beyond Lopez, Hicks, Edwards and Sanoja, really isn't doing much. Owen Caissie's a great outfield bat on paper but he strikes out too much and he has poor defense. Connor Norby's fine but counterproductive. Stowers and Marsee are both way down from last year. This team has Deyvison de los Santos, Agustin Ramirez and now Rece Hinds all stuck in the minors while people like Leo Jimenez, Joe Mack and Chris Morel eat precious roster space. I know that the runs can score with these types of guys, but it's not a working model, and you can't build that much from it. If guys like Marsee, Caissie and Norby did what they were supposed to, we'd be in better shape, but they're wasting this year.

The Marlins are now fighting to keep from being lapped by the Mets, who, while having a bigger payroll and more working factions, are still the Mets. So that'll be interesting for sure.

Coming Tonight: His infield defense may not be terrific, but his burst of offense has been keeping his team from being the total failure many people figured it would be.

High Sugar Intake

 

The limitations of modern arm strength point towards a frustrating factor about modern pitching. There are some people pitching right now who, if they didn't overwork themselves and miss time in between amazing seasons, would be Hall of Famers. Back then you only had the occasional case, a Sam McDowell here, a J.R. Richard there, but even then it was an outside circumstance that led to the decline. Even Madison Bumgarner, the ATVing ruined his arm more than overthrowing did. But now, throwing the best season of your life means not being that good again for another 2 or 3 years, and considering that people are already coming up at 25 anyway, it's reducing people's prime.

If this was 1979, Shane McClanahan would have been up at 22, have a Cy Young by 25 and would be in the midst of a Dodgers contract by now. But no, the Rays didn't have room for him til the 2020 playoffs, he flirted with greatness but went down mid-2023, missed two seasons and is now 29 and working on a 'comeback' year. Throwing hard isn't what it used to be, man.

I think the Rays are still very thankful that McClanahan's still a mighty centerpiece of their rotation, and that he's back to 2022 form this year, working on a 6-2 record with a 2.45 ERA through 11 starts. He's still a big game guy who can take a strong workload and hold the line against great teams. I think he's still being a little careful with speeds and control but he's still very much THE guy for this team, and he, Rasmussen and Martinez have been very good at keeping runs down this year. I just feel like if the Rays had more of a sample size from him they'd have been better off. They got a ton of strong, healthy seasons out of Blake Snell, and McClanahan's very much seen in the same kind of light as Snell was, but with less to show for himself. It definitely speaks to how good McClanahan's been when he's been active, as his highest season ERA to this point is still a 3.43 from his rookie year. 

The Rays in general, by the way, are still a strong AL competitor despite the bottom beginning to drop out a bit in the past week. Today the Tigers smacked around Nick Martinez and friends behind 8 innings of Troy Melton, marking their 7th loss since the rainout that could have ended the 'Yanks can't win a series against a .500 team' argument once and for all. The team is still hitting, and still surging behind the usual suspects of Caminero, Diaz and Aranda, but the depth isn't completely there [barring Ryan Vilade maybe] and the bullpen's still in shambles. This is still a good team, and they're still capable of a lot of strong run production, but the uncontested upswing they had in May might have come to an end. 

...of course they don't play a .500+ team again til mid-month in LA, but apparently it's only okay to bring that up if you spend money on the team.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who plays for one of the teams the Rays have to play next. And he got his start out of the way today, so they won't have to face him. 

There's No 'F' in Utility

 

2026 has already been a great year for lifetime utility guys making a name for themselves when thrust into a starting role. From the jump, Mauricio Dubon's been excellent at shortstop, to the point where Ha-Seong Kim is practically a backup right now. Ezequiel Duran's been wonderful filling in for Corey Seager, and his clutch and contact abilities are helping out the Rangers quite a bit. Oswald Peraza and Jorbit Vivas essentially have starting jobs right now, Jose Caballero made quite the impact covering for Anthony Volpe, Tristans Peters and Gray are finding everyday jobs, the list goes on. But right at the top of that list is Ildemaro Vargas, because it's simultaneously true that nobody could have seen his rise coming...and yet his rise was honestly bound to happen.

Since 2017, Ildemaro Vargas has bounced around as one of those likable infield role-player guys who's never a star but always does what he's supposed to. He was with the Diamondbacks for years, played for a bunch of midwest teams in the early 2020s, found a niche as a utility guy with the Nats then returned to Arizona. Last year he was really impressive in a swing role, hitting .270 in 38 games, while continuing to be an above-average upgrade in the infield. Heading into the 2026 season, the D-Backs found themselves without their Opening Day 1B options [Pavin Smith and Carlos Santana both got hurt], so the majority of the reps there went to Vargas. 

So far, Vargas has become an everyday, reliable guy for this D-Backs team this year. He's hitting .291 with 7 homers, 37 RBIs, 59 hits [tied for most on the team with Marte and Carroll, whoever they are] and a 1.5 WAR. His 7 homers are already more than he's ever hit in a season. This is probably not a long term answer, as they kind of want Jose Fernandez to be that, but it's working right now. It's also just a nice perk that Vargas as working in an area that wasn't expected to be a big source of consistent production from this team. Like they banked on Corbin Carroll having a great year, Ketel Marte having a great year, Perdomo and Moreno to do their thing. I don't know if they banked on a bounce-back from Nolan Arenado either, but there he goes, hitting .270 with 8 homers and 28 RBIs [one more homer than Carroll]. 

I think if Gallen and Kelly weren't having buffer years, they'd have a chance to take out San Diego for 2nd. Zac Gallen has a 5.16 ERA, and is once again looking worn down. Same with Kelly, who's got a 5.08 ERA after missing a few weeks. It's a good thing that Eduardo Rodriguez and Mike Soroka are having excellent years, but, again, it falls into the issue with pitching right now where everyone throws so hard that nobody's good every year anymore. The D-Backs are balancing Rodriguez and Soroka's on years with Gallen and Kelly's off-years, plus a rehab year from Corbin Burnes. Forty years ago you just kept going ahead without having to plan for this kind of stuff. 

I still think the D-Backs are a nice under the radar threat in the NL this year. I don't know if they're a playoff team yet, cause the last few D-Backs teams have arguably been playoff caliber but just haven't made it. But they have a lot right now that's getting me excited, and the random resurgence of Ildemaro Vargas is honestly one of them.

Coming Tonight: He got hurt. Missed a season. Came back last spring training, got hurt, missed another season. And now he's back and pitching beautifully. 

Have It Your Way

 

The way the bungee is working out, the Rangers have righted themselves back to a 2nd place team, which is around where they were aiming for to begin with. They had a great weekend, the A's had to play the Yankees, the wins piled up, therefore the Rangers lapped them. And while it's a reach to say they're a first place team right now, it's nice to see the Rangers making the most of a fairly scattered product. Three big pieces are injured and a lot of the auxiliary guys are picking up the work, but the team has felt more itself in the last few weeks.

Immediately, you can tell that this is the most human Nate Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom have looked in a while. They're not playing badly per se, but some early starts have led to steeper ERAs than usual. deGrom is 4-4 with a 3.48 ERA, which for him is the equivalent of a 5 ERA. He's still got his WHIP around 1, and he's still got 78 Ks, but the big game dominance he had in New York isn't completely there. Granted he is, after all, 38, and may finally be past his peak. I think he's still reliable enough, but this isn't as bang-on as he was last year. Evo's finally got his ERA below 4, but in the process he's gone 5-6 with a league-leading 13 homers allowed [tied, concerningly, with deGrom]. He's definitely improved in his May starts, but I think coming back from the second-half injury left him a little waterlogged to begin the season. The important thing is they're both healthy and making all their starts. Leiter, Gore and Rocker are following in behind them but are similarly carrying around low-3/high-4 ERAs. They're honestly just inconsistent, which figures.

Meanwhile, in a lineup without Corey Seager or Wyatt Langford, things are moving ahead skillfully with a slightly altered approach. It's a good thing Jake Burger's more consistent than he was last year around this time, his power numbers have been pretty nice, with 10 homers and 37 RBIs. Like always, he's good for cheesy power and little else, but he's slightly more well-rounded this year. Can't really say the same for Joc Pederson, as he's all on the power stuff, but at least he's got a .794 OPS and 9 long balls. Took him forever to truly get going in Arlington, but he's got a bit more of a niche now, especially considering they DFA'd his only other competition for starting DH. Jung, Nimmo and Duran have been very helpful revitalizing that portion of the lineup, and Carter is still a very versatile player that just hasn't really started hitting yet. These guys are hitting, even if it's not a fully well rounded offensive output. But for right now, it doesn't need to be much more than flashy. 

They're an unassuming, relatively young, relatively simple team that can just outhit you even if they make it close. Heck, somehow Jacob Latz is really working as a primary closing option, even though he was a perfectly fine starting choice last year. Things are kind of coming together, and while I don't know how sustainable it is, it's certainly a better Rangers team than I thought, and better than they looked a month ago.

Coming Tomorrow- He's 34 years old, he's never played more than 95 games in a season, and he's already topped his season home run mark in two months. Why not, right?

Without Elly

 

So. The day the Reds land, solely, in last place, also happens to be the day that Elly de la Cruz lands on the IL. And now the Reds are without Elly, Hunter Greene, Rhett Lowder, Graham Ashcraft, Emilio Pagan, Jose Trevino and Ke'Bryan Hayes. And while, yes, they are still over .500, and still technically a good team...you take away the tentpole and you see the flaws.

Okay, so who's their best hitter now that Elly's hurt? Well you'd think from his April that Sal Stewart would fit that bill, but he's quieted down a great deal since then, and despite some prime stats [.261 average, 12 homers, 37 RBIs], his May was way less eventful. Actually, their best hitter right now is J.J. Bleday, the A's outfield castoff whose offense tried to make up for his lackluster defense. He's rolled into an everyday role and is hitting .303 with 9 homers and 26 RBIs in 30 games. His May was pretty incredible, and he's already been named one of the players of the month. So even if the Reds were struggling, and considering how many people on this team aren't even hitting .200 it's no wonder, Bleday was an excellent jolt forward. Power from Nathaniel Lowe and a surprising bounce back from Spencer Steer have also helped. 

But yeah, when Stephenson, McLain, Friedl, Benson and Hayes are all hitting under .200, you have to take a step back and regroup. This team has been trying to put a workable formula together for so long, and you'd think that all of these guys would be able to put together good seasons. But McLain once again is struggling to hit substantially, even with more productivity in the last few weeks than he had in April. That Stephenson and Friedl are replacement-level this year are especially heartbreaking.

Thankfully the rotation has solidified a bit, and the Reds haven't needed to do as much starter juggling as usual. Chris Paddack has settled into that 5th spot, and while it's not terrific it's better than his Miami stuff. Singer's struggling but he's eating innings. Lodolo's still got a 5 ERA but he usually figures out how to get it down. Abbott's more hittable than he's ever been but even he's managed to get his ERA under 4. And then Chase Burns is just having an incredible year all around, with a 1.96 ERA, 7 wins and 72 Ks already. I do worry about the bullpen now that Johnson's hurt, but they've got enough workable options at the moment that it's not terribly worrying.

Hopefully by the time Elly gets back there's still stuff that can be salvaged. Cause if not, we may have an NL Central team dip below .500. We wouldn't want that, right?

Coming Tonight: Another guy on a team that probably thought it'd have a better lineup this year.