Elder Buried

 

I dunno if I'm ever gonna be able to figure out Bryce Elder. Cause either he's a dominant, forceful fly-ball pitcher with a low K rating, or he can't keep runs down to save his life. There's something very classic about Elder, he just stays up there and stays in long enough to get the job done, no real 100mph stuff. Sometimes that results in an ASG appearance and a low ERA, and sometimes that results in everybody killing him at the plate and nobody taking him seriously. I suppose it's connected to how viable the Braves' offense is, cause Elder was great when the Braves were good, and last year when the Braves struggled he was subpar. 

So anyway, the Braves are good again and Bryce Elder has a 0.77 ERA through 4 starts. I dunno if it's gonna make sense, I just know that it's a good thing.

The Braves' rotation has this 'handle with care' quality to it, because it hinges on four guys who throw hard and get injured more often than not. If Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep didn't overthrow and run the risk of missing time, they'd be able to accomplish more and potentially win more titles. But this is the life they've chosen. So the Braves now have to stack the pitching staff with supplanting options that don't overthrow. Reynaldo Lopez is one of them, and after a lost 2025 he's back in full force, with a 2.18 ERA in 4 starts. Grant Holmes has been very reliable, and durable, in a swing role, and so far while his ERA is closer to 4 than he'd like, he's still a valid innings eater. Even 35-year-old Martin Perez has joined in on the fun, with 4 games of pure dominance and a 2.21 ERA despite only 10 strikeouts. 

If the team has the leverage and the pitcher can stay on, control guys like Elder and Holmes can still be valuable pieces. It's actually a very efficient strategy, one that I'm really interested to see morph once some more starting options return. Strider and Waldrep should be back soon, and they're gonna want to get Didier Fuentes more starts at some point [unless they mean to dangle him for an upgrade]. 

That level of pitching depth combined with a ferocious lineup has made the Braves a definite standout so far. Nobody wants to go up against a team where Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Dominic Smith are not only hitting but surging. Dominic Smith has gone from a handy fill-in in SF to a genuine DH standout, with 4 homers and 16 RBIs in 17 games. Baldwin's a power hitter who's also hitting .304 right now, he's everything you want. Mauricio Dubon might just be the guy going forward at short, with apologies to Ha-Seong Kim. Only guy that isn't really hitting is Yaz, but it's early.

Now that the Braves have sufficiently embarrassed the Phillies, they now get to play Washington for four games and arrive home in time for the Phillies to have hopefully remembered how to play baseball. It's looking extremely good for the start of the Walt Weiss regime in Atlanta, and I reckon it's about to get even better. Cause Acuña's barely even woken up yet.

Coming Tomorrow- He was drafted 1st overall, and was thought to be the first piece of a legendary youth movement. It didn't work out 100% as planned, but he's still a very important piece of their next act.

Rice to See You

 

After a really embarrassing stretch, where the A's, Rays and Angels took some really winnable games away from us, the Yankees finally rebounded, with a commanding sweep of...a team that's supposed to be better than any of those three.

...we can't touch Aaron Civale but we torch Cole Ragans? What a team. Anyway,

The immediate takeaway is that, as vital as Aaron Judge has been to this team, Ben Rice might quickly be becoming just as vital. Judge has 9 homers right now, and Rice just hit his 8th. Rice currently leads the Yankees in RBIs with 18 and average with .338, and doing this while, just weeks ago, Aaron Boone still wasn't convinced Rice was an everyday player, is a big statement. Rice should be in the lineup everyday, cause when he is he does things like that. He's hit home runs in four straight games. That is pretty special. And that is everyday player material. 

I've been eyeing Boone's judgment a lot this year, especially given that Randal Grichuk began the year with the team, going 2-for-20, while Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones are still stuck in the minors. Some guys who aren't hitting can't really be helped, like Austin Wells, and some know their days are kinda numbered, like Ryan McMahon, but Grichuk can't be wasting a roster space when there's genuine young talent that could be helping the team. I get it, contract control, whatever, but we want to win games and we can't if we keep starting a guy that can't hit. That's why the 'well Goldy should start here instead of Rice' made no sense even BEFORE Rice went on the homer tear. Seniority doesn't mean shit if you're cold as hell. 

Through all of the lineup tumult, and there's been lots, the rotation hasn't been much of an issue. Fried-Schlittler-Warren is a solid punch, Weathers had a great start yesterday, and Gil...Gil at least isn't Taijuan Walker bad. It's the bullpen guys that have been acting up, especially Bednar and Doval. Even Angel Chivilli struggled a bit keeping the Royals at bay to end yesterday's game. At least Tim Hill's still Tim Hill. Dunno what we'd do without him. 

This is a flawed Yankees team, but we can hit, and we can hold down runs. Bellinger's still a success in New York, Stanton's bat is still a valuable asset, and Jose Caballero can still steal bases. The Sox are up next, and the Astros follow, and with a worse team, and better Sox and Astros teams, I'd be more worried. But this Royals series quieted my anxieties slightly. Maybe we'll gain some momentum and stay strong against two noted rivals. If Rice can stay hot, anything's possible.

Coming Tonight: A guy that keeps his ERA low by having a terrific team behind him and not overexerting himself. So it's odd seeing him next to Chris Sale and Spencer Strider.

Empty Pages

 

Hey...guess who has the best record in baseball? No, really, guess. You'll never get it.

Despite being upset by the Rockies twice this weekend [more proof that the Rox are quietly improving], the Dodgers are still 15-6, and surging in all the places people thought they would. Shohei Ohtani's on-base streak is still active? Of course it is. Freddie Freeman's still an elite 1B option even after 35? Of course he is. Yoshinobu Yamamoto's still one of the best starters in the game? You know it. 

Though shockingly, the team's current WAR leader is not Shohei Ohtani, nor Freeman or Yamamoto, but one Andy Pages. Pages had a strong first few months to the 2025 season before balancing out a bit, but his April's been outrageous, with a 1.083 OPS, a .389 average, 28 hits and 21 RBIs, all league highs. Pages also has 5 homers, tied for second place with Ohtani and...Dalton Rushing?? Is that right? The Dodgers' backup catcher can rake like hell? Damn, that's pretty helpful in case something happens to Will Smith. But yeah, Pages has led the charge, and unlike some contemporaries [James Outman mostly], he's proven to have MLB staying power and has become more multifaceted than before. Gotta love that this team can still find new heroes even in a lineup with 3 MVPs in it. 

You're also seeing some of the guys who had slower starts begin to find themselves. Kyle Tucker's slowly heating up, he has 3 homers and 13 RBIs now. It's not as immediate as his Chicago success was but he's still pretty damn good. Ohtani only has 10 RBIs but he's also like their best starter so I think the Dodgers can let it slide. Glasgow's 2-0 with a team-leading 29 Ks and a 3.24 ERA, so he's getting his stuff under control. Jack Dreyer and Tanner Scott have gotten their ERAs back down, and Edwin Diaz is trying to. Even Justin Wrobleski can hang on for a truly dominant start in a rotation that happened to have an open space, and now he's sticking around. I do think once Snell and Knack come back he'll be back to long relief, but this will at least make him look desirable to the other 29 teams.

Even without Mookie Betts and Blake Snell, this is still a good Dodgers team because it's gained depth naturally vs. out of injury necessity. Justin Wrobleski feels like a genuine starting option and not a failsafe. There are no stunts to avoid bullpen depth. The bench guys are valuable MLB options. The system doesn't feel like it's being gamed...yet. Though...if nobody can stop this team then we really do deserve a lockout. Cause they're good, but they're not immaculate. No team is immaculate. So hopefully a successor can take them out. And seeing as the Padres are only a half game behind them now after doing some serious streaking, maybe it'll come sooner than we think.

Coming Tomorrow- Aaron Judge has 9 home runs, but this guy has 8. And he's no slouch either.

Falling Backwards

 

The AL West is kinda weird right now. The Mariners and Astros are in last, and the Angels and Rangers are fighting for first. It may be only April, but it's at least giving the Mariners an opportunity to work their way up.

It's very clear what's plaguing the Mariners right now. Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor and J.P. Crawford just aren't playing well. And that's the majority of the core from last year, not to mention Polanco and Suarez are gone. So already, if a lot of guys are muted, that doesn't match up, immediately. To have three crucial hitters batting under .200, not even including Rob Refsnyder who's yet to even register a hit, makes it much harder for other teams to take you seriously. Cal Raleigh conquered the world last year and now he's a .163 hitter, despite 11 RBIs. Either teams have figured him out or it's just a rough start.

It is therefore helpful that, at least, somebody is providing stable hitting in Seattle. And it's Randy Arozarena, already pretty beloved there after a year and a half. Arozarena's just a good guy to have around, can do all sorts of things and can go on a tear when you need him to. So far he's hitting .284 with 21 hits, 7 RBIs and 5 stolen bases. All sorts of fun contact work, plus the occasional homer. In fact the contact guys, like Cole Young, Brendan Donovan and Dominic Canzone, have been off to the best starts. And Luke Raley's power numbers don't hurt either. There are definitely pieces of this Mariners lineup that do work, but until the larger half do their part it's just gonna keep looking this awkward and scattered.

At the very least the pitching hasn't been much of an issue so far. Emerson Hancock, Bryan Woo and George Kirby all look great. Hancock seems to finally have recovered from a few injury-plagued years, and he's 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA. Logan Gilbert doesn't look TOO terrible, but he's still 1-3 with a 4+ ERA, s hopefully the reps bring that down. Luis Castillo might be cooked after a few excellent, consistent seasons in a row. I'm not sure who the 'break in case of emergency' starter is. Cooper Criswell maybe? Bryce Miller's out for a bit longer, I dunno if it'll sync up perfectly. Bullpen looks pretty good too, barring some struggles from Andres Munoz.

Look...there is a good team in here, it's just that not all of it has hatched yet. I imagine Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh will start hitting soon, and things will flip around. The team's so well-designed that even if it doesn't happen all the way, good things will still happen. There's depth, there's failsafes. Last night they looked really good. I think they'll be alright eventually. 

Coming Tonight: I remember hearing about this guy as a prospect and thinking that, seeing as the Dodgers hadn't traded him yet, they clearly knew something cool was gonna happen. And I was right. 

Cold as Brice

 

If you were wondering what a Brewers team without Jackson Chourio, Quinn Priester, Andrew Vaughn or Christian Yelich looks like, and how it stands a chance without those pieces, well...Pat Murphy could manage his way out of a tornado if he was given the opportunity. This is a team where Brandon Lockridge or Brandon Sproat can be the hero. Anything's possible, even without Yelich. That was always the fear, when Yelich became the MVP guy, it was always a worry of 'what is this team without him'. And without him, the Brewers still have Brice Turang.

Brice Turang is one of those players who can do just about anything. Hit for average, hit home runs, steal bases, play great 2nd base, get on base, lead the team. Between Chourio, Turang and Contreras, the Brewers have a lot of those multifaceted guys. But Turang right now is the most crucial, because he's hitting, leading the team in WAR, and leading the team in OPS. Turang has quietly become one of the most crucial players in baseball since breaking out in 2024, and as a former high-tier prospect in this organization, it's very affirming. That's what's great about the Brewers, their top prospects pay off. Jackson Chourio, Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, Brice Turang, and now Coleman Crow have all delivered on the promises the scouts have made. So with Jesus Made and Cooper Pratt on the way, and possibly Jeferson Quero if they can manage to keep him up for more than 5 seconds, it's very reassuring. The last true 'sure thing' to dive-bomb out of Milwaukee was Keston Hiura. 

The Brewers' ability to grow around injuries has served them well this season. Jake Bauers has been covering 1st, and he's been doing pretty well, leading the team in homers with 5. Joey Ortiz is doing his best to avoid being replaced by Jett Williams or Jesus Made, and so far it's working, with 4 steals already. Brandon Lockridge is aware he's just a placeholder for Jackson Chourio but he still had a nice day at the plate today. And Kyle Harrison, Brandon Sproat and Coleman Crow have all capitalized on a freer rotation. It's a shame Logan Henderson couldn't run on that opportunity, but Crow seems ready, and Harrison and Sproat are more than willing to let their former teams regret trading them.

Truth be told, the Brewers' season this far has been pretty sporadic. A hugely successful stretch to start, then six straight losses, and now 4 straight wins. I think they've got enough leverage to ram back into the lead, and this is even before Chourio comes back. 

Coming Tomorrow- It is so refreshing to not have to play this guy like 16 times a year anymore. I already dug him fundamentally but now that he plays for a team I enjoy I think it's safe to say I do really like this guy. Anyway he's been hitting well.  

Messick I've Made

 

I caught about five seconds of the near-no-no Parker Messick was attempting last night. I turned it on in the ninth, saw the O's keep Cleveland down, and then Messick got up and immediately gave up a hit. Which is the effect I have on most no-hitters. 

The thing is, hearing Parker Messick's hitless through eight isn't exactly a 'WHAT??' sort of news piece. Messick's been brilliant since the Guardians brought him up last year, and he's already 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA in 4 starts. Messick isn't too flashy, he's just a stocky guy who out leverages hitters and keeps runs down. That was Tanner Bibee for a bit, but now he's struggling to keep runs down. Messick is closer to the old school pitching mentality, and for someone like him to be succeeding in Cleveland alongside Gavin Williams, one of your standard high-speed/high-K pitchers of the 2020s, that once again proves how versatile the Guardians are. The age of the Guards' rotation being a murderers row is mostly done, but having useful, sturdy guys like Joey Cantillo and Slade Cecconi following in still does the trick. Messick is very close to ace material, which is wild when Williams and his 29 Ks are right there, but he just seems like the guy this pitching staff can congregate around.

Now, while the rotation has improved from last year, there's still some bullpen arms that are stuck in 2025. Cade Smith is a fundamentally strong closer that still keeps giving up runs and hits even before he gets the save. Smith made the 9th tougher than it should have been last night, and it's a lot like what he was doing last year. The good part is the bullpen still has enough reliable, homegrown options like Erik Sabrowski, Tim Herrin and Hunter Gaddis that the cumulative bloodshed is still low. This why the Guardians build their teams like they do, so there's always a pool of guys they can trust. 

All that said, the pitching has been leading the way for this Guardians team so far. Not that the hitting isn't good, it's just still a bit unrefined. Obviously Jose Ramirez works, obviously Steven Kwan works, and now it's clear that Chase De Lauter works. Beyond that it's a lot of guys who ebb and flow. I guess Brayan Rocchio's good again, he's playing elite shortstop alongside Daniel Schneemann, making waves at 2nd. Angel Martinez seems to have a handle on left field finally, that's good. Beyond that, Kyle Manzardo's backpedaled tremendously, Juan Brito's not ready yet, Austin Hedges is hitting better than Bo Naylor [which...lol], and David Fry still isn't at 100%. This is a scattered offense, and while occasionally good things happen, there's less depth than you would think. 

But...in a tumultuous AL Central, the Guardians have been one of the sole constants thus far. Even if the Twins are currently leading, one does not expect them to continue at that pace the rest of the season. The Tigers have stalled and then raced forward, the Royals have struggled and then soared. Nobody's really walking in a straight line...except, comparatively, for Cleveland, who even on their worst days still can turn around and have a strong game. I think they'll earn it over time, but the Guardians are currently the team to beat in this division, and having Parker Messick as an ace certainly doesn't hurt.

Coming Tomorrow- A rare kind of player who can do just about anything. Brewers are lucky to have him. 

Wood Work

 

I've been writing this blog, and following baseball, for over a decade. I've seen a lot of bad teams that, for all intents and purposes, could be lost to history without anyone noticing. Aside from the last two seasons of all-time ineptitude, I've seen versions of the Pirates, Orioles, Marlins, Rays and Astros that completely refused to be anywhere close to good, and trudged along out of their own necessity. 

But something to be aware of is that it's very hard for a bad team to still have nobody I collect on it. The 2000s Orioles still had Brian Roberts. The early 2010s Astros still had Hunter Pence. I think about the stretch from 1994 til like 2005, where the Brewers had virtually no one I would ever think of seriously collecting playing for them. Aside from that one year of Hideo Nomo and the beginning of Nelson Cruz, it's a wasteland of replacement level guys and 'that guy's. At one point, Milwaukee seriously subsisted off of a core of Jeromy Burnitz, Geoff Jenkins, Jeff Cirillo, Jose Valentin, Fernando Vina and Dave Nilsson. Really.

So what I'm saying is that the 2026 Nationals...likely will be a bad team. They're not looking terrific, not gonna lie. They won yesterday against the Pirates in a squeaker, and even then most people are chalking that up to Don Kelly's mismanaging rather than anything the Nats actually did. Even though they currently lead the Mets in the standings, and are arguably playing better than the Phillies right now, they are not exactly expected to compete, and the general idea is that they'll likely sell at the deadline. But...even if they are a bad team, they still have James Wood and C.J. Abrams, and both are terrific. 

The Nationals have taken on several prospects from other teams, Abrams chief among them, with the intent on starting a new dynasty. Some have already moved on; Lane Thomas is now with Kansas City and MacKenzie Gore is now with Texas. The majority are still impacting the direction of this team. Even though Wood and Abrams came over in the same deal, they're still the marquee guys for this Nats team. Abrams is off to a scorching start, hitting .367 with 19 RBIs and 6 homers, plus a crazy 1.175 OPS. It is very possible that the Nats could trade Abrams at the deadline, and the lack of any 1st place prospects have sort of cemented that.

Which leaves James Wood, who I do not think is in danger of being traded anytime soon. And the Nationals are all the better for it. Wood is 23, reaching his prime, and still hitting great power numbers, with 5 homers and 14 RBIs already. Dude's a born power hitter, and though the high K rate is still scary, his production can't be denied. The hope is he can stay in Washington for a bit and help the team develop. You're already seeing Brady House, Foster Griffin, Daylen Lile, Nasim Nunez and Clayton Beeter becoming everyday options, and it's better than the carousel of replacement guys we've seen over the last few years.

The Nats at least have control over how much they can accomplish even in the midst of a seemingly lost year like this one. If James Wood, C.J. Abrams, Cade Cavalli and Jacob Young can deliver on great seasons, that'll at least be a step in the right direction. 

Coming Tonight: He just took a no-hitter into the eighth right around the point where Cleveland fans really started tiring of the old ace.