Monday, March 18, 2024

The 'So Close' Response

 
Two of the most inexplicably exciting stories heading into the 2023 postseason concerned the Miami Marlins and the Cincinnati Reds. The Marlins had just lost their marquee players and were starting over with a mixture of homegrown guys and contracts, including recently-traded-for Josh Bell and Jake Burger. The Reds were once the butt of the league and were slowly coming back, thanks to their incredible youth movement and players like Elly de la Cruz, Andrew Abbott and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Both seemed like fun playoff spoilers in a field of potential juggernauts. In all actuality, the Reds petered off before the end of September and the Marlins were faced with a three game series against the unstoppable Phillies home crowd. 

So going into 2024, with the scales sort of refreshed and both clubs wiser, we get the rebuttal. 

The Marlins technically have the most to draw from, as they actually did make the playoffs, and finished with the same record as the eventual NL Champion Diamondbacks. They also suffered the most immediate loss, with not only key players like Jorge Soler, Dylan Floro, Joey Wendle and Garrett Hampson leaving in transactions, but Sandy Alcantara, the staff ace, looking to skip the season entirely. 

As a result, the Marlins' rotation is a bit shakier than it has any reason to be. The team seems to be set with Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and the newly-promoted A.J. Puk at the head of the rotation, but with Edward Cabrera and Eury Perez struggling with injuries, the back half seems murky at best. The idea is to go with organizational options like Ryan Weathers and Max Meyer, but those two especially have struggled at the MLB level recently. You also have to remember that Sixto Sanchez is actually healthy this year, and has been ramping up to return to the majors again, but the plan with him right now seems to use him as a bullpen piece, which...fine, be anticlimactic. The bottom line is that the Marlins' rotation is concerningly uneven, and with the team lacking the sufficient funds to go out and grab somebody like, at the very least, Michael Lorenzen, this is gonna be what they go with for a bit.

The good news is that the lineup itself could be enough to not completely bottom out in April. Josh Bell, Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Sanchez are looking at great years. Nick Gordon, Dane Myers and Jon Berti have looked hot out of camp. And the new additions like Tim Anderson, Christian Bethancourt and Vidal Brujan do point towards some intriguing developments this year. I'm not wholly convinced on them til something entirely clicks with this version of the team, but they could definitely do some damage.

On the other hand, the Reds seem to have solved their biggest problem from 2023: pitching. Last year their pitching options were so unreliable that they were dipping into the back shelves of their starting development. Everybody got hurt, the people they brought up to replace them got hurt, and that factor doomed them towards the stretch. So it's the opposite of the Marlins: they're going from injury disasters to durability. Which is a nice look for them.

The Reds' potential rotation seems to be Greene-Lodolo-Ashcraft-Montas-Abbott. There's still other names floating around the outsides, like Brandon Williamson and Nick Martinez, but those five seem to be the answers this year. And if all of them stay healthy? Damn. 

Granted, it seems to be a lot to ask for a lot of these guys, especially Montas, who appeared in New York so sparingly since the 2022 trade from Oakland that I don't think I ever really got used to him in pinstripes. If Montas somehow strings together a great campaign for the Reds...well good for him. Ashcraft is coming off an injury-plagued campaign, but he seems to have his stuff again; same with Lodolo, who's ramping back up. Greene and Abbott hopefully will provide some stability this year, and I really don't want to see them hit the IL with how hard they're throwing.

The best thing you can say about the Reds this year is that they've overprepared. They have multiple valid answers at most positions, and have a flexible lineup where they can succeed in multiple different ways. The key example concerns Matt McLain, who's not definite for Opening Day. If he's out for a bit, the Reds have Jonathan India and Elly de la Cruz at both his positions. You're still great there. It honestly surprised me, by the way, that the Reds re-signed India, as it seemed like the young infield was evolving without the need for him, but they've used India and Jeimer Candelario as ways to buttress the infield while filling things in over time with the kids. They're also phasing Spencer Steer into an outfield role if CES wants to play 1st, which could be the way. 

The other issue is T.J. Friedl, who could be out for a bit with a recently-surfaced injury. Alright, then the outfield's Will Benson-Jake Fraley-Steer. That's still pretty good. Maybe a little lacking in versatility but still very good. There are enough backups that are still A options that the Reds don't entirely worry me this year. They've prepared for so many outcomes, and have enough young guys to still look intimidating for a while after this year. Heck, even Noelvi Marte getting busted for PEDs didn't worry me, as that...takes out a 3rd base option, and he'd have been, like, 3rd in line anyhow.

The Reds are looking to make the leap, like the Orioles did last year, and I think they will in 2024. Hopefully they have better luck, and a stronger second half, this time around.

Sunday, March 17, 2024

Keeping the Youth Tag

 


Last year, in the absence of veteran arms, the Cleveland Guardians developed an all-rookie rotation that somehow worked out better than the initial one did. Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Xzavion Curry, with occasional assistance from a healthy Shane Bieber or a visiting Lucas Giolito or Noah Syndergaard, held things down for the Tribe last year, and instilled confidence that once the veteran arms would leave, things would be alright. Though only Quantrill left in the offseason, despite a plot to deal Bieber occasionally surfacing, the Guardians' rotation options looked vast and mighty heading into the season.

So far there's only been one rotation setback, as Gavin Williams will be missing time this year, alongside some bullpen members who also got hurt. The silver lining of that is that before Williams was scratched, he was honestly looking really good, striking out 9 in 4.2 innings, and it looks to only be elbow soreness. Everybody else seems to be themselves, though Tanner Bibee's early starts have been worrying. All of Curry, Allen and Bieber have looked sharp so far. 

Most impressively, after a pair of injury-plagued seasons, Triston McKenzie's looking like his old self. So far he hasn't given up any runs, and is striking out batters like he did during his rookie year. Triston McKenzie I see as the Mike Clevinger type in this situation; he's not the youngest piece in this rotation anymore, but if he succeeds he could be the most crucial piece. He's the bridge between Bieber's vet status and Allen and Williams' greenness, and if he has a good season that's definitely something the team can build on. 

But McKenzie's strong starts do raise some questions, like...how youth-based is this rotation going to be this year? Not only will Bieber and McKenzie be back, but Carlos Carrasco, in camp on a NRI contract, has an outside chance of making the team. It's not...a 100% guarantee, especially considering that it's a 7 man race for 5 spots at the moment, but there is a chance that Stephen Vogt goes with a veteran emphasis rather than leading with Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee and Xzavion Curry right off the bat. It's not exactly unheard of for Curry to start in the 'pen, do long-man work and eventually work his way up to starting. And while Allen [and Williams] has been excellent out of camp, you never know if that'll be the deciding factor for Vogt to start the year. There's also Ben Lively kicking around after his decent 2023 numbers with Cincinnati, and while he's a long shot for the rotation, like Carrasco he's not exactly out of the race. 

So now the Guardians have to figure out what tactic they want to go with, or with lining the kids up behind Bieber is still a winning tactic. I think they should be fine this year if they let the kids play, especially considering they'll be getting Williams back eventually, but there's more factors at play than you might think given last year's success.

Still, I expect Cleveland to do better this year, and possibly contend. I do expect the Twins and Tigers to be tough to manage down the stretch, and it's not exactly a certainty as it has been in the past. But hey, this is the exact kind of Guardians team that could overperform. 

Friday, March 15, 2024

0 Starting Options

 


Already there are five starting pitchers on this Yankees team who have, at one point or another, suffered from pitch-the-best-season-of-your-life-and-immediately-need-surgery-on-that-arm-itis. Two of them, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon, are trying to recover from shaky 2023 campaigns. Both have been incredible in the past, and both used 2023 to recover from...well, doing so well in 2022. Rodon already has complained about not quite reaching his fastball this spring, and Cortes has responded similarly to early starts. But they seem to be doing better and hitting good numbers otherwise.

Then you have Marcus Stroman, who's a few years removed from the tactic of having an excellent season and then getting injured. Last year with Chicago he was strong, if imperfect in parts. Signing with the Yankees meant he was willing to bury the hatchet after criticizing the team in the past, and seeing that the last guy who made an enemy of the team before joining it went so well [enjoy retirement, Josh], it's understandable to be somewhat worried about Stroman's material. I watched an early spring start of his, he wasn't as sharp as I would have liked. He has been better in follow-up starts, and looks to factor favorably into the rotation going into the year. I think he might be our most reliable arm this year, though I'd love to be proven wrong.

And then you have Luis Gil, who made headlines by winning his first 5 starts, then proceeded to do nothing of note again and battled injuries in the minors the last 2 years. A clearer rotation, without Vazquez, Brito and King ahead of him, means Gil might actually have a shot at a roster spot this year, and he has admittedly looked good this spring, with 2 wins, 14 Ks and only 3 runs in 8 innings of Tampa play. Unfortunately the other guy he's facing for the last rotation spot, Clayton Beeter, has been having a better spring, with more starting opportunities and more overall dominance. Gil will likely get some starts in the majors this year, and with the rate of veteran injuries it's more of a foregone conclusion than anything, but he might not get the spot out of camp.

The Yanks looking to go with a Cortes-Rodon-Stroman-Schmidt-Beeter rotation to start the season points out two very interesting things. 1- the Snell deal is probably not gonna go our way. 2. For a Yankee rotation without Gerrit Cole, this could honestly be worse.

The thing we need to remember is that we're only supposed to be without Cole for a month or so. If these guys can get the job done for a month and a half, and with the number of veterans here that is definitely possible, there shouldn't be much bleeding. This isn't exactly the Sixers without Embiid, I trust Stroman, Nestor and Rodon to keep things together, even if Nestor's looked a bit scary at times this spring. Also, I'd be more scared about missing Cole if we didn't have a jacked lineup and an improved bullpen. We will probably fine.

It's not missed starts and April that scares me. Missed starts in September is gonna be what does this team in, and I am really hoping this rotation doesn't lead us to that point. 

Saturday, March 9, 2024

Re-Sale Value

 


It has become all too familiar to hear of a pitcher that wowed the league by throwing hard and striking everyone out that, after his peak, cannot for the life of him stay healthy. Just this season we've had Lucas Giolito potentially be out for the season with whatever screwed up his arm in the second half of 2023, Kodai Senga potentially missing a ton of time after pitching beautifully last year, and Carlos Rodon continuing to worry Yankee fans by not quite reaching his fastball velocity. Pitchers are blowing their arms out at an accelerated rate and everyone's acting like it's not a problem. It is. I don't think it's possible for a starting pitcher to have a 20 year career anymore because now it's more like a 15 year career with 4 of those years being injury-prone half seasons. 

And so here we are. Chris Sale has one year with the Braves to prove himself. At one point he was a surefire future Hall of Famer. Then in 2019 his arm got fatigued, he had a ton of arm surgeries and hasn't stayed healthy since. Does he have anything left?

I think about some of the other guys who've turned out like this. Corey Kluber famously struggled with injuries after his peak, and recently called it quits. Luis Severino had an excellent start but he's more careful than he's ever been now. James Paxton only showed up in Boston for a portion of his two year deal, but the stuff that appeared was excellent. And similarly, Sale's 2023 material was pretty solid, striking out 125 in 100 innings. But, ultimately, he got injured and was out in most of the second half. 

I find it very funny that Sale is using a Spring Training stint to prove he's got it, because that's exactly what he was up to last year. I saw him start a game last spring, he looked pretty damn good actually, could still strike people out. But we don't know at what point Sale's arm is gonna tell him to stop. He's actually looked even better this spring, proving that the Braves knew something in snatching him for some small pieces. 

People, at the time of the deal, called Sale a killswitch piece for the Braves, as he provided back rotation security behind Morton, Fried, Elder and Strider. But not only is Sale something of an injury liability, you have to think about Morton, who is 40, and Fried, who fought injuries through most of last season. And then you have to think about the next Chris Sale; Spencer Strider started 32 games last season, won 20 of them and struck out a league-leading 281. He will be 25 this season, and the hope is that he's able to replicate this without getting injured. But is this too much to ask, even for someone as talented as Strider? 

I mean, if nobody gets injured, this rotation could bring them to October. But that's a big if, especially in 2024-era MLB, where everyone has to throw hard. Hell, the Braves have already seen two organizational phenom pitchers, Michael Soroka and Ian Anderson, completely lose their footing due to throwing out their arms. And that's the plan they seem to be going with for this year, just have everybody keep throwing really hard and hope it works. There needs to be some sort of whistleblowing thing that proves to clubs that this isn't a sustainable practice, though I doubt that'd even happen.

For now, we just have to hope that Chris Sale can have a solid comeback season without getting injured yet again. Though if the uniforms stay this troublesome, maybe he'll want to miss time...

Saturday, March 2, 2024

Prolonging the Inevitable

 


The theme of this MLB offseason was clearly money. How to spend it, when to spend it, how to flex how much of it you have. The most intriguing developments of the offseason involved either the Dodgers spending hundreds of millions on Ohtani and Yamamoto and deferring contract payment, or the Orioles being bought by someone willing to spend money and secure players, or the Brewers signing Jackson Chourio to an extension before he even plays a game in Milwaukee. A year after the biggest development of the offseason was...well, the owners refusing to move an inch on concessions to the players' union, it's definitely a change of pace that some of the most talented players in the game are getting their money's worth, and then some [at the expense of the quality of uniforms, perhaps, but still..]

And yet here we are, less than a month before the season is to begin, and three of the biggest free agents on the table still haven't signed. Coincidentally, they're all represented by the same agent, the ever-slick and ever-infuriating Scott Boras, who has spent the offseason pumping Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger and J.D. Martinez up to believe they deserve hundreds of millions and long term deals, all while the teams they are negotiating with aren't at all willing to fork over that kind of money for these kinds of players. The stalemates are even more infuriating when you consider that one of these players, Snell, just won a Cy Young and is considered one of the most valuable pitchers in the game, and another, Bellinger, is coming off an excellent comeback season and deserves a higher payday. 

Like the strike, there can be criticisms of both sides. You know, 'how dare the owners be conservative and not want to win', of course people will say something like that. But Boras is, at the end of the day, a salesman, and there's this belief that his years of overselling and overpoaching has infuriated the owners, and they've all become more stubborn, and more deliberate, in dealing with him specifically. Some of this has nothing to do with the players; as we found out last night, the Giants were going to sign Matt Chapman regardless of how long it'd take. It was just the price that Boras and Chapman were asking for wasn't at all what the Giants were planning on, especially considering that they'd just taken on Jung Ho Lee AND Jorge Soler. The same thing happened with Cody Bellinger; everybody knew that Bellinger would re-sign with the Cubs, and the fact that it took three extra months for the two parties to agree on a dollar amount is kind of sad. Yes, they got a deal together, even if it was less than Bellinger arguably deserves, but now Bellinger is in camp and catching up to be ready by Opening Day.

And that's the main problem I have with Boras' holdouts. Yes, you can condition all you want in your own training facilities and do whatever conditioning and individual prep you want but there is a direct correlation between arriving late to Spring Training and underwhelming regular season statistics. I think of the two holdouts of the 2019 season- Josh Donaldson eventually caved and signed with Atlanta, and his numbers, while fine, were the beginning of a career downturn for the former MVP. Craig Kimbrel waited until the season had already begun to sign with Chicago, and by that point he was looking at a truncated season anyway, the quality of which was, understandably, shaky. Even last year Carlos Correa was a later addition to the Twins' roster, and while he had some cool moments, you could tell he was still a bit thrown off for a lot of the year. 

That is what worries me about all four of these guys. Their offseason limbo has spread to spring training, and the clock is ticking on how much actual prep time they're gonna get before somebody hands them the ball. Blake Snell clearly wants to pitch in the Bronx, and there's clearly space for him in the rotation, but he's gonna have to accept a smaller, shorter deal if he wants to cut to the chase and sign where everyone is expecting him to sign [I suppose he could sign with the Angels as well but I have no idea why he'd want to do that]. J.D. Martinez is either gonna sign with the Mets or the Tigers I think, and I don't think he's willing to accept that it's wiser to go with a 2 year, inexpensive deal, seeing as he's turning 37 this year and exiting his prime period. I assume there's at least one more week of stubbornness that all parties will allow Boras before this becomes a problem, though the recent signings of Bellinger and Chapman do point to something happening very soon with both players.

There's always going to be something inherently wrong with the structure of baseball. Scott Boras is thankfully a 'something wrong' that can be helped, I think. It's just gonna take players realizing that he's not the answer. 


As for Yamamoto and Ohtani in LA? I really hope both of them pan out the way the Dodgers want them to. I look at last season, and how there was an entire pitching rotation that cratered because none of them stayed healthy, and I worry it could happen again, especially considering that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a Japanese pitcher acclimating to US hitters. I know it's easy to root against the Dodgers, but I kinda want this to work solely because a team with Ohtani, Freeman and Betts would be cool if it won everything. Not sure if it will, but it'd be cool.

Friday, February 9, 2024

Fifteens

 


This whole thing goes back to devotion. The whole story. The whole blog. Everything. If no one was devoted then none of this happens. 

My grandfather was devoted to this hobby. Devoted is one word. Obsessed. This is a man who prospected in the 1980s and stockpiled copies of XRCs of people he thought was going to make it. Hundreds of 1987 Topps Mark McGwires. Hundreds of 1987 Topps Traded Benito Santiago. Dozens of Jeff Musselmans, Kevin Seitzers, John Smileys. Even if he was wrong he was going to be devoted to being wrong. And all of that goes back to his childhood, picking up the original 40s Bowman square cards. Taking home premier issues of players like Bob Lemon, Snuffy Stirnweiss, and, yes, Yogi Berra. If he didn't have that Berra as the centerpiece of his collection he wouldn't keep chasing the dragon. He did this with coins as well. And we found out that the coins were worth...something, but not an enormous amount. A lot like the Berra 48. But that's never getting sold.

It's been over fifteen years since my grandfather passed. One of the reasons I started this blog is him. Because if he were still kicking he'd be giving me ideas on a daily basis for posts. 


I think a lot about how I constantly strive to fit into communities I find. I had a lot of experience being the weird outsider to a lot of social groups I'd encountered [and yes, I do realize that I still fall into this category in the blogosphere], and I learned that I needed to affix myself to the expected behaviors by watching how people around me acted and sort of modeling that. Once you know what the expectation is it's easier to meld yourself to it. To this day I'm doing this. The difference is that now I know at what point it's alright to do my own thing. 

When I first discovered the baseball card blogosphere in 2008, I spent many mornings just inputting information and accumulating as much knowledge of the people, the expectations, the formatting, the audience. At this point the top blogs were Wax Heaven, The Baseball Card Blog, Cardboard Junkie, A Cardboard Problem, Stale Gum, Thorzul Will Rule and, though a newer blog by that point, Night Owl Cards. I got a sense of how they write, how they used pictures, how they talked about current products and older products, when they talked about themselves. More importantly, how they used humor- this was 2008, around the time that Topps was relying on gimmicks and short printed cards to set themselves apart from their competitors, and the public outcry in reaction to these was, at times, more entertaining than the cards themselves. 

I say this because I wouldn't be doing this blog had it not been for all of these people who've influenced me. Chris, Dayf, Mario, Bill, Marck, James, Drew, Nick, Sooz, Greg, Ryan, other Chris. Countless others. A lot of whom I still talk to on Twitter or Bluesky. Many of which have stopped writing. I just wanted to be like you guys. 13-year-old me just seeing these guys embroiled in my own hobby, posting pictures of stuff they've accumulated just by making social bonds, it seemed like a leveling up. And it's nice to be even a small part of a group forged by people like that.


I started this blog 15 years ago today. When I think of the number 15, I think of Thurman Munson. My dad's all-time favorite player. He was a first baseman but he wanted to hit like Munson. Got his heart broken 45 years ago. I felt some heartbreak when Roy Halladay passed but you can't even compare this. Munson was the Yankees in the 70s. There's a reason people still talk about him, make cards of him, bring him up as a Hall of Fame possibility, because he was the central force behind those great Yankee teams, and a .300-hitting catcher in an era where that still meant something. 

My dad got to watch Munson in 3 straight World Series' when he was a kid. And then I grew up to see Derek Jeter in the World Series for 4 straight years. My dad collected Munson cards. I collected Jeter cards, and Munson ones as well. My collection is the accumulation of three generations of collectors doing their own thing. Which explains the extent.

When I started the blog, I had no idea what I was going to write about. Maybe go to card shows and post what I got. Maybe open packs and post the results. Maybe talk about baseball things. In 15 years, the blog has just become me posting custom cards on a bi-daily basis and choosing those moments to talk about baseball things and hopefully have decent analysis. There's a lot of bloggers who pack more quality into sporadic posts, whereas I go for 2 posts a day and hope that at least one of them is good. 

I think I still like what I do. If anything, it's my way of keeping up with baseball knowledge on a daily basis. I have no trouble talking to people about baseball now, I can pull up players that came out of the woodwork and became great pieces. Admittedly it has less to do with reading the stats off the back of a card and more to do with checking baseball reference dot com and tracking a player's season from the point they burst onto a team's WAR leaderboard. But I can definitely hold my own talking to people about sports. It's odd, because the rest of my interests are more...nerdy and niche. And this is the big popular mainstream work bro thing I'm into. Y'know, baseball's a great unifier. If it helps me fit in, so be it. 


It's wild that I've been doing this for fifteen years. I didn't think I'd make it past 2 or 3. But y'know, if you get into enough of a routine with something you just keep doing it. Especially if it's free.

The only thing is that fifteen years into this blog I've been caught at a really weird time. For collecting, for baseball, for my life. I'm still in between jobs and trying to find work where I can, and that has led to me not buying cards as much in the past year or so. I've found time to save up and get stuff, but it's been less frequent. Cards aren't on the shelves as often when I'm at Target, products are more streamlined than ever, and I'm worried the joy is leaving the hobby for me. I mean, I think it's a universal feeling, but from what I'm getting from all of you, you stick with it because you can't quit at it now. And that's where I think I'm at with collecting. I can't not collect cards. I don't know what I'd be if I stopped. 

To give you an idea of where I'm at, I gave up soda last year. Wasn't doing wonders for my throat, the caffeine isn't great for you anyhow. I used to have one a day in college. But I cut it out last year, and now I average one a month. Soda right now is cheaper than baseball cards, but it's more addictive and more carcinogenic. There hasn't been a case of somebody getting cancer from collecting too many baseball cards, not since they stopped selling them in cigarette cases. It just takes up space and costs too much money and doesn't spark as much joy as it used to. 

I started collecting in 2007, a year where you could get a blaster of Topps that had 10 packs for 10 dollars. Now you pay 20 dollars and get like 7 packs. The CEOs won and the creativity is mostly gone. But I still want to keep collecting. The same reason I keep going for jobs, or keep writing, or keep doing things I love. Because it's gotta get better eventually, right? It has to. Everything has to balance out, swing back down to earth and all. 


I've been seriously thinking about the future of the blog in the last 6 months or so. There were a lot of nights where I hammered out my two posts and thought to myself 'do I have anything left?' Or 'am I doing this just to amuse myself at this point?'. In September, the blog had its highest amount of page views, with over 92,000 in that month. At the same time, you look at the analytics, and most of the blog's views are coming from Singapore and China, meaning I have no idea how many people are reading this blog because they like baseball cards. The bot-ification of the internet has diluted a lot of online areas, especially the blogosphere. I have no idea if analytics actually mean anything anymore. People are reading, yeah, but it's not 2009 anymore. 

Kinda sucks that the peak of the blogosphere was the period where I was 13 or 14 years old and I didn't know how to really do analysis yet, but hey, you live and you learn.

But yeah, I've been mulling it over a lot. That's probably why I haven't posted much since the end of the season. That and I've been working on other projects. But I think I am gonna keep the blog going, keep making customs and all that. Mostly for my own sake but also because I know the blog does have a decent enough readership. And because I'm gonna be kicking myself if I don't get to make customs of, like, Shohei as a Dodger, or Soto as a Yankee or any of that. Or Votto wherever he signs. This is fun for me, it's how I tell the story of a baseball season. As a bonus, other people seem to enjoy it as well. 


Thank you for sticking around these 15 years, and for helping inspire me to keep at it. I hope I can give you some more decent years. I still enjoy writing the blog. I still enjoy making content. It's difficult sometimes with everything that's going on, but this helps me get by. I'll keep it going as long as it continues to do so. 


I've run Mint Condition for 15 years. More than half of my entire life. More than I've consistently done anything else. I wouldn't do something for 15 years if it wasn't at least a little bit worth it. 

Tuesday, January 23, 2024

My Unofficial 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

 This Hall of Fame year is the kind of one I'd known was on the horizon for a couple years. Because we've had a couple 'I guess it's just this guy' years in a row now. Obviously 2021, where nobody got in, and then we've just had years where people who'd been on there for a while, like Scott Rolen, pop in and a lot of people settle around 60%. After 2019, where a bunch of people got in, we haven't had many overwhelming HOF classes. And this year has the potential to be one.

It's not quite certain how many people are in. My guess is there's three that are probably in, and maybe two more that have the potential to sneak in if the other half of the votes go their way. And with virtually every last one of these ballot members being people I grew up watching, or was blogging in their heyday, it's a pretty big year for the Hall of Fame. Also, considering that next year could be an even bigger year with two surefire inductees and three with really intriguing cases [not counting the two holdovers from this year that I think are future HOFers anyway], we might be seeing an influx of great players heading to Cooperstown in the next stretch. 

So the way the 2024 voting goes is very important. This could be the first of many big HOF years. So it's very exciting writing this post, even if it doesn't mean anything.

As per usual, I'm adhering to the BBWAA standards, meaning I'm limited to 10 names. I'm not sure if I'll do a full 10, but there's a lot of borderline cases that are now looking a lot more legit. 

So here are the names I'm going with, and the people on this ballot that I would vote for Hall of Fame enshrinement this year:

Bobby Abreu
Even 5 years into his eligibility for HOF enshrinement, Bobby Abreu has just been unlucky. With so many other cases that have come from the background in, like Edgar Martinez, Scott Rolen, Larry Walker, and now people like Andruw Jones and Billy Wagner, there hasn't been much room for Abreu's case to be discussed. I think it's a phenomenal case, as his prime years were electric for baseball. Abreu's one of five non-steroid-abusing players on this ballot with a career WAR over 60, and a lot of that is thanks to his Phils run, where he gathered 47.2 WAR, more than 8 ballot members' career totals, and hit .303 with 1474 hits. Nobody came close to him as a contact bat or as a defender. I think his post-31 numbers sour the case for many people, but [like another Phillie on here] no one can deny the power he was capable of in his prime. He's got 5 more years for people to catch on, and I really hope they do.
Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies
Odds of 2024 Induction: 20 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 10 to 1

Carlos Beltran
The way Beltran has been polling on preexisting ballots, it's looking like the Astros scandal is enough to give him a handicap for the foreseeable future. Yet I still think Beltran's a Hall of Famer. It's different from the steroids guys, because the primes of their careers were affected by cheating, and Beltran started cheating right at the very end. You take the 2017 season out of the equation when dissecting Carlos Beltran's numbers, first of all his career WAR raises to 70.9. Secondly, his career batting average raises to .281. You can't exactly make fun subtractions like that with Bonds and Clemens without sacrificing MLB seasons and record-breaking years. What's one age-40 season? Beltran was still one of the best hitters in the game during the 2000s, was a hero for the Mets and Cardinals, and was a power bat even into his late 30s. I think he deserves to be in, and at the same time, the cold shoulder most sportswriters are giving him right now is still warranted. 
Team of Induction: New York Mets
Odds of 2024 Induction: 7 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 5 to 1

Adrian Beltre
Every Hall of Fame roster deserves a sure bet, and this is 2024s: Adrian Beltre is a member of the 3000 hit club, was 23 home runs away from 500, led the league in hits, doubles and homers at multiple points in his career, had all of his All Star Game appearances come after his 30th birthday, never struck out more than 120 times, won both a gold glove AND a silver slugger at 32, and has a 93.5 WAR. Beltre's in. Everybody knows it, nobody's disputing it. It's just a matter of how close he gets to 100.
Team of Induction: Texas Rangers
Odds of 2024 Induction: Even
Odds of Eventual Induction: Evener

Bartolo Colon
Every year I allow myself one guy who I know is gonna fall right off the ballot that I put up for vanity reasons. This year, and this shouldn't shock you, it is Bartolo Colon. He's not a Hall of Famer, we all know it. But goddamn, the fact that a player like him pitched into his late 40s and was a strong rotation option despite being twice the age of many of his teammates--that is an incredible story and I couldn't help but love it. Colon has the most strikeouts, and the second-most wins, of anyone on the ballot, as well as, unsurprisingly, the most innings pitched. The man may only get like 3 votes this year, but if Bartolo Colon has a million fans, I'm one of 'em, and if he has one fan, it's me.
Team of Induction: Cleveland Guardians
Odds of 2024 Induction: 10,000 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 75 to 1

Todd Helton
Todd Helton on the Hall of Fame ballot, much like his Rockies teammate Larry Walker, was just going to be a matter of when the support would show up. From early numbers on this year's ballot, it's looking like it's finally here. Last year Helton was a good 3% away from induction, and he's been building a case for the last few years. I think he deserves the extra attention, Helton was easily one of the best hitters in the game during the 2000s. When the Rockies made a World Series in 2007, Helton was the star, and he led the charge [along with fellow ballot member Matt Holliday, who deserves more votes than he will be getting]. Helton has 2500+ hits, 350+ homers, and a career .316 average, the highest on the ballot. Helton was an unmistakable presence on those Rockies teams of the 2000s, and his contact numbers should help ring in a very contact-heavy HOF class.
Team of Induction: Colorado Rockies
Odds of 2024 Induction: 3 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 2 to 1

Andruw Jones
Andruw Jones is next in line. Once Sheffield, Helton and possibly Wagner come off the ballot, the sportswriters will be less distracted by other cases in waiting, and actually focus on Jones' numbers. It's something that's been cooking for a while, as Jones pulled 58% on last year's ballot, and looks to pull into the 60s this year. The writeup remains the same: Andruw Jones' career drop-off was ludicrous, but his prime material was incredible. Between 1997 and 2006, Jones hit 337 homers, 1010 RBIs, and 1553 hits, all while playing in World Series', making several ASG appearances, and getting to 50 homers in a season. There have been plenty of Hall of Famers with staggering career dropoffs [Roberto Alomar, Jim Hunter, Jim Kaat], and many players who couldn't accomplish what Jones did in their prime. I think that Jones is a piece of those 90s/00s Braves teams that made them even more of a weapon, and even with Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz, McGriff and Chipper in, Andruw belongs as well, even if it's probably another year away.
Team of Induction: Atlanta Braves
Odds of 2024 Induction: 9 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 6 to 1

Joe Mauer
It's funny, I wasn't sure going into this year if Joe Mauer would be a guy that sportswriters would catch onto. Yeah, great catcher, strong defender who could hit for average, but, like with many others, I thought that the lack of career longevity would turn people away. Judging by how Mauer's been polling so far, this doesn't seem to be much of an issue. Mauer's peak years are pretty incredible, including three seasons where he led the league in average, and that MVP season where he hit .365. Even with an age-35 retirement, Mauer hit 2123 hits and finished with a .306 average. From 2006 to 2010 he had 28.9 WAR, which is a pretty incredible stretch for a catcher. Really, other than Buster Posey, you will not find many great offense-heavy catchers on the ballot anytime soon. Power-hitting catchers maybe, as Victor Martinez is on this one, but Mauer was multi-faceted, versatile, resilient and a perfectly likable baseball guy. I saw him rehabbing for Rochester once and even then he seemed humble as hell. If people are saying he should be in, sure! Why not? Didn't think it'd come this easily.
Team of Induction: Minnesota Twins
Odds of 2024 Induction: 5 to 2
Odds of Eventual Induction: 2 to 1

Jimmy Rollins
Aside from Colon, this is probably the biggest stretch on here. Rollins doesn't have the full career wow of his fellow Phils on the ballot. All Rollins was was just a solid, consistent shortstop with base-running perks and the occasional monster, MVP-caliber season. Like Mauer, though, Rollins was a role model in the clubhouse and a stand-up guy that everyone loved playing with, and that smile added to his stats, including 2455 hits and 470 steals. The odd part is, we're in an era of HOF ballots where there aren't a ton of true classic infielders coming up. It's loads of corner guys right now, the next few infielders to get in will likely be 1st basemen and 3rd basemen. The only other middle infielders on right now are guys that won't get in [Phillips, Reyes] and guys I never want to vote for again [Vizquel]. Thereby, Jimmy Rollins and his former battery partner are the best remaining middle infielders on the ballot. How wild is that? I think the other guy is a surer shot, but I will keep voting for Rollins until I can no longer do so.
Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies
Odds of 2024 Induction: 30 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 15 to 1

Chase Utley
Chase Utley's Hall of Fame case is surprisingly strong. From 2005 to 2010, Utley is one of the most valuable players in baseball, in the same league as Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Tim Lincecum, Miguel Cabrera and Johan Santana. In this stretch, Utley sports a 45.5 WAR. Albert Pujols only has 7 more in that stretch. Also in that prime block, Utley has 992 hits, 162 homers, 572 RBIs and a .298 average. Ryan Howard was the face of the 2000s Phillies teams, but Chase Utley was probably the better player, as he not only hit like a champ but was a delight to watch at 2nd, which explains why he was a 6-time All-Star. People may keep him out of the Hall for a bit due to his heel turn with the Dodgers, and his bloodthirsty play specifically against the Mets, but Utley may be one of the best 2nd basemen of all time, and one of the sole reasons why the 2008 Phillies went all the way. I think Utley will get in eventually, but I don't think anyone is expecting his numbers to make as much sense for the Hall as they do.
Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies
Odds of 2024 Induction: 12 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 4 to 1

Billy Wagner
I've gone back and forth on Wagner. Yes, his stats are incredible, he was one of the best closers in the game from 1997 from 2008, but to the earlier standard I felt like he wasn't much more than just...a solid career closer. And then the last year or so made it clear how fricking rare that is these days. Who's the next closer that deserves Hall of Fame induction after Wagner? Craig Kimbrel? Kenley Jansen? There's nobody who's been completely ironclad in the ninth due to the expansion of bullpens and the rise of more variable relief specialists. And that makes what Wagner did all the more impressive, even if he did make some enemies as he went on. Wagner saved 422 games and rarely had runs scored off of him. He was consistent, reliable, nasty and extremely hard to get the best of. And when a lot of closers have gotten 40 saves while blowing a ton more, Wagner, even down to his last year, was notching 40 saves and leaving with a 1.43 ERA. I think that somebody like Wagner, a consistent closer whose prime was squarely in the 2000s, is a rare breed, and should be inducted because of it. It's not 100% locked in for 2024, but I think he will get in.
Team of Induction: Houston Astros
Odds of 2024 Induction: 5 to 1
Odds of Eventual Induction: 3 to 1

I think 3 guys get in this year. Beltre, Helton and Mauer. Perhaps Wagner sneaks in. But I think it'll be a solid bunch that readies the field for what's coming next year.