Before Our Very Eyes

 

The way things were looking last season, the Diamondbacks were likely gonna be sellers, start over a bit and see if Carroll and Burnes could make it long enough to see the next stage of the rebuild. The idea was that Kelly wasn't coming back, Gallen wasn't coming back, Marte was getting traded and the dream would be over soon. And then during the offseason, the D-Backs surprised everybody by not punting. Virtually no big pieces were traded. Merrill Kelly, broken as he may be now, was re-signed. And what's more, the D-Backs even got Nolan Arenado and Michael Soroka to pad the roster. 

And that led to a 3rd place, 15-12 start where you can not only see the Lovullo era still thriving, but the next steps beginning to lock into place.

Now, 1st base is already a wild twist, because logically it should be as simple as getting Pavin Smith to do it, but he's hurt. So Carlos Santana started the season as the primary 1st base option. Then he got hurt. And then...the single strangest 1B platoon of them all came along. Cause Ildemaro Vargas has somehow pulled a Donnie Barrels and reinvented himself as an everyday player, hitting .367 with 6 homers and 20 RBIs. Yes, ILDEMARO VARGAS is doing this. I'm just as shocked. And the other guy playing 1st is rookie Jose Fernandez, who hit 2 home runs in his first game, then didn't hit anymore until this past week. 

I'm...dumbfounded, honestly. Two solutions out of absolutely nowhere that were like Plan C and D. And also throw in Nolan Arenado still being decent at third after Jordan Lawlar was moved to the outfield to make room for him [only to get hurt]. Arenado is hitting .286 with 4 homers and 14 RBIs. It's not as pretty as it used to be, but it's more of a batting exclamation point than, say, Evan Longoria in a similar role. Throw in Carroll, Marte and Perdomo doing their usual stuff and you've got a strong lineup somehow. Only real weak spot is catcher with Moreno injured, but James McCann's doing what he can I suppose.

This team's also lucky they caught Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez and Mike Soroka on the upswing from their respective injury comebacks, cause they've made for a great starting three. The hope is that Corbin Burnes comes back unharmed in a little while and someone, hopefully Brandon Pfaadt, calms down to provide a steadier fifth choice. 

The D-Backs are surprising people so far, including themselves. We'll see how far they're able to take this, but if the stars, like Carroll especially, can stay hot they definitely have a chance to stay embedded in the NL West picture.

Coming Tonight: I always found it very fitting that right after Manny Machado was traded, the Orioles' next savior, Cedric Mullins, arrived. Well right after Mullins was dealt, they called up this guy, and now he's surprising people.

Astros Update: So It's Come to This Edition

 

I don't know if this feels different than the usual Yankee series wins against the Astros...but this one felt pretty sweet. 

Cause typically, and I don't know if you know this, but...typically the Astros-Yankees series' are pretty evenly matched. Y'know, the Astros pull some shit, then the Yankees come back, it's back and forth. And even if the Yankees have had the better regular season luck the last few meetings, it's never easy. But now, and...let's be clear, I'm aware that Spencer Arrighetti and Christian Walker made the third game tougher for us. But like...

Okay. Listen. I've been waiting for an Astros team to give me absolutely nothing for SO LONG. And I'm genuinely psyched that we're here. 

Here's what the Astros are working with right now. Yordan Alvarez is hitting .355 with 38 hits, 26 RBIs and 11 homers, all of those leading the league. It's a herculean start for Alvarez, trying to reclaim momentum after a down season. In addition, Christian Walker's having a comeback year, hitting .291 with 23 RBIs and 7 homers, finally settling in after a rough first season in Houston. Spencer Arrighetti, since coming off the IL, has been 3-0, with a 2 ERA and 21 Ks. Carlos Correa has been terrific on defense filling in for Jeremy Pena, and is also hitting .280 in his usual, pedestrian manner. 

That's it. That's...really it honestly. They're in last place, 11-18, and struggling mightily. And Joe Espada has been trying to save face by going 'well it's the injuries', but...even with that in mind, there are a lot of major players, like Yainer Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Lance McCullers, Bryan Abreu and Enyel de los Santos who just aren't pulling their weight. You're also dealing with a past-his-prime Jose Altuve with 8 RBIs in 27 games, steps backwards from both Cam Smith and Brice Matthews, and just a messy lineup schematic in general. 

To be fair to Espada, the injuries have been pretty rough for this team. The starting pitching has been hit so hard that they're now on a rotation of McCullers, Arrighetti, Mike Burrows, Peter Lambert (!!!) and an opener. They've already released J.P. France, demoted Colton Gordon and have, for some reason, yet to call on Jason Alexander, who's moonlighting in the Western Union ads Sugar Land. Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Ronel Blanco, Tatsuya Imai and Hayden Wesneski are all hurt. So cutting France and Luis Garcia now makes even LESS SENSE. Cause there's barely any room on the roster, and any potential call-ups need to be moved on purposefully. In past years, even with an injury-laden rotation, the Astros would have guys ready, in many cases Arrighetti or Gordon or someone. Now, they don't even have much of a bench, which is...why you don't trade Jake Bloss or Ryan Gusto. In addition, the majority of the outfield is hurt, meaning they either need to chance Alvarez's defense or throw a replacement level guy like Daniel Johnson (!!!!!) or Dustin Harris out there. Which is why you don't cut Chas McCormick. 

Every issue with this current iteration of the Astros seems self-inflicted, and the few guys playing well are coming off of rough, injury-plagued years. I don't know where they're headed. They've had worse starts than this and ended up in the playoffs. I kinda hope that random hot streak isn't enough to sink the AL West for them this time. I'd like to think the Mariners, A's and Rangers are good enough to keep that from happening this year, but...with this organization, can you ever be sure?

For now, though, I'll just take my Yanks series win and be happy. 

Coming Tomorrow- It takes a lot of panache to hit 2 home runs in your MLB debut and then insist you're more comfortable hitting for contact.

I Guess I'll Take Credit for That..

 

I went to a Phillies game a couple weeks ago against the Cubs. Nothing really noteworthy happened, so I thought at the time. But from the start of that game, both teams embarked on long streaks. The Phillies, who lost that game, would go on to lose the next 9, eventually squeaking out a win in Atlanta Saturday night. The Cubs, who won, would keep rolling themselves, winning THEIR next 9. It never usually works that well, where one game can be a turning point for two different teams. And now the Cubs are heading towards first while the Phillies, the way it's looking, might be firing some people very soon.

I don't really want to say the Phillies thing was my fault, but I can take being responsible for a Cubs run. Always fun to see. 

I root it back to Ian Happ, who's always been a sort of supporting player for these Cubs teams despite being longest-tenured. He shows up, does something cool, doesn't make it about him, and Hoerner or Suzuki or PCA gets to be the hero. Well right now Happ leads the Cubs in homers with 7. Dansby Swanson has 6. The people you think would be hitting all the homers in Chicago, like Suzuki and Bregman and Busch, aren't doing as much for this team as the fundamental, 'always there' guys. It's honestly odd that the Cubs have sort of taken Dansby Swanson for granted, but he really just shows up, plays great defensive shortstop, hits .244 and drives in a lot of runs. He's had a 4+ WAR every season he's been a Cub. Even Happ, as good as he's been, didn't really lock in til around 2022. By the way, shockingly Happ's never hit more than 25 homers in a season. Could this be the year he goes for 30?

As I figured, even during the Cubs' rough stretch earlier, the plan of putting a bunch of proven run producers in the same lineup has worked extremely well for this team. Suzuki's hitting .300 in his first 15 games, he's 4 homers in. Hoerner's not only leading the team in average but in RBIs and stolen bases. Moises Ballesteros has become an excellent DH option, with 4 homers and 12 RBIs already. Carson Kelly's strong 2025 has carried over to a just-as-strong 2026, still starting and hitting .300. It's really only PCA and Busch who aren't hitting, and they can turn around in an instant. The rotation isn't terrific, with a lot resting on another okay Shota Imanaga season, but the idea is for the lineup to just outhit anybody anyway. Kind of an uphill battle when you're playing the Dodgers but against the majority of the rest of the league they can really score.

It's a tough division, especially considering that everyone's still above .500, but I think the Cubs have proven, since the streak, that they have the hitting to outrun the competition, and they could build on this and have a fruitful postseason. That's only if they can hang onto momentum like they just did though.

Coming Tonight: I was beginning to think 1st base in Houston was cursed, but all it took was a year to figure out the new park and this guy seems to have broken it.

Expressly Ryan

 

For the first 19 games of the season, you could describe the Twins as 'better than anyone thought they could be'. They were 11-8, having big games against tough pitchers like Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet, and getting production out of a noticeably slimmer lineup. Since then, however, the Twins have only won once, and that was against the Mets right before they ended their streak. 

So what was it that allowed the Twins to propel past the Tigers and Jays in early April before struggling against the Mets and Rays in late April? No one is quite sure. Some people have theorized there's some sort of Target Field advantage that allows the team to figure out great pitchers, either a tell or a full cheating thing. We may not know about that til they make it back home tomorrow against the Mariners. Yet that doesn't explain why the Reds came to Minneapolis and swept them cleanly, and that's a team that has Andrew Abbott and Brady Singer, two easy-to-exploit starters. 

I think the main truth is that the Twins simply aren't great this year, and as things have evened out it's all been confirmed.

I root this argument back to Josh Bell. Josh Bell is a strange case, because he only seems to succeed when playing for bad teams. The second he's traded to a good team, like the 2022 Padres or the 2023 Marlins, his bat stops working. But when the pressure is off he springs into action. Last year, on a completely meaningless Nationals team, Bell became a viable power DH again, hitting 23 homers and 63 RBIs. The Twins took a gamble, and so far he's hitting .244 with 3 homers and 16 RBIs. Not immaculate, but decent production for a team without a ton of real success. It stands out more when the foundational guys, like Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis, simply aren't producing many runs. Someone like Austin Martin, amazingly hitting .300 with only 6 RBIs, should not be so valuable to a team's success.

At the very least, the Twins, for the time being, still have Joe Ryan, who's a very good starting option. Through 6 starts he's got a 1.021 WHIP, a 3.90 ERA and 33 Ks. He's very much at the mercy of the run support on many occasions, but he's still the staff ace and he's still a great guy to have around. It's very promising, though, that this team also has Taj Bradley, Bailey Ober, Mick Abel and, if his first start is anything to go by, Connor Prielipp, to rest on if anything were to happen around, say, July. Bradley in particular is looking better than he ever has on a mound. Who knew there'd be someone that wouldn't succeed until AFTER they left Tampa. Besides Joe Ryan of course.

The Twins now at least still strive to outdo expectations, and I think, if April is anything to go by, they're still capable of big games. I just don't think it's the norm for this team. I don't really think they have it in them.

Coming Tomorrow- There's a lot of teams that don't have anybody left from 2022, let alone 2018, but this guy has been on the Cubs since before they crumpled-and-tossed. And now he's helping them compete again. Gotta feel amazing for the guy.

Sandy & The Hourglass

 

The Marlins are in second place. Are they in second place because they are honestly kinda good, or are they in second place because their competition is the Nationals, who aren't great, and the Phils and Mets, who had awful losing streaks? It's too soon to say. But it has to help that Sandy Alcantara's finally pitching like his old self again.

The Sandy Alcantara era in Miami has been a strange one, because when they had absolutely nothing they still had him, and then once they were able to build a team and compete, Sandy, well...he got hurt, missed a season and spent 2025 not being too great. And now for 2026 they have a lot more cemented. Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez make a great DP combo. Kyle Stowers just returned to aid Owen Caissie and Jakob Marsee in the outfield. Liam Hicks is having the contact season of his life. And the bullpen has finally locked in consistently. 

But now...this growing, improving Marlins team has a great Sandy Alcantara performance behind it. Through 5 starts, he's got a 2.80 ERA, 23 Ks, a 1.019 WHIP and a complete game shutout under his belt. This is the guy who won the Cy Young a few years ago. There was a worry that the big season cooked his arm, but that doesn't seem to be the case. He's still dominant, he's still trustworthy, and he can still lead this rotation forward. And just to be clear, he's not exactly doing all the work either. Max Meyer's off to a pretty nice start, and has 28 strikeouts already. Janson Junk and Eury Perez have had some pretty nice starts. I figure Braxton Garrett will be back eventually, there's still room for outside voices, but what they have at the moment is working despite the lack of real exclamation points.

I think what's most relieving about this Marlins team is that the parlance 'well, it won't be pretty' doesn't apply to this team as much as it did to past iterations. There is much better hitting on this team, and more of the contact variety. 5 years ago it was easy to get like 6 guys who hit homers and then only hit .220 and be alright with it, but now that Edwards, Stowers, Hicks, Sanoja and Lopez can just hit for other reasons than just hitting home runs, it gives more of an idea of what the team can accomplish. Last year the Blue Jays contact-hit their way to a World Series, and the Guardians' contact game gets them to the playoffs frequently. The Marlins have enough varied hitting energy to get them far. And if all else fails, they have Deyvison de los Santos, who could probably hit 30 home runs if they can keep him in the majors. 

I feel good about this Marlins team. Granted, if the bottom two disappointments can really turn things around, they'll need to shift into a different gear, so hopefully there's a higher ceiling than usual for the Marlins.

Coming Tomorrow- I still can't believe that this is like the one guy the Rays couldn't wait til he blossomed to trade. They just did it immediately. And now he's one of two ex-Rays leading the Twins rotation.

Bigger, Badder and More Canadian

 

It's the kind of prophecy that feels like it's out of a movie, but imagine being in Montreal in 2003, around when it became clear that Vladimir Guerrero was leading the Expos in free agency. Cause it would feel like all the hope was going away with the loss of one guy. Imagine if you had the knowledge to go 'don't worry...there will be another Vladimir Guerrero in 15 years, and he'll be just as good as the previous one, and what's more...he'll get to spend even more of his career in Canada. Cause that's where he was born'.

It sounds ridiculous, but somehow Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has guaranteed, even just 8 seasons into his career, that even as legendary as his father was in all his years in the league...he will be the most Canadian Vladimir Guerrero to ever play. Canada by way of the DR. It just gets more Arthurian the more you think about it. Born in Montreal, plays in Toronto, gets 'em to their first World Series since before he was born, and signs a contract ensuring he'll stay in Canada for years to come. All that remains is for him to play well, and that's what he's been doing.

Through 8 seasons, Vlad Jr. has 185 home runs [15 away from 200, and that's certainly doable], 603 RBIs, 1107 hits, a career .290 average and 26.8 WAR. By 27, that's a strong resume, even without adding the 5 straight all-star appearances and the 8 homers in one postseason. The expectations were huge for Guerrero, and he's definitely risen to them. I think in 2023 there was a moment where we all kinda rethought things for a second, as he was only hitting .260 and not getting 30 homers, but then he replied with 2 straight top-tier seasons and that postseason campaign. Right now he's hitting .337 with 12 RBIs and 30 hits, proving that the emphasis doesn't have to be on power all the time. Guerrero's just turned into a truly tremendous hitter, and an excellent centerpiece player who, even without Bo Bichette, can still command a lineup. 

The Jays themselves, meanwhile, are under .500 and doing their best to bounce back. The full team effort from 2025 seems to have subsided slightly, as the lineup's a bit more piecemeal. Losing Kirk and Springer hurts, and not even a surprise bench turn from Eloy Jimenez and the latent production of Kazuma Omamoto have patched things tremendously. It's just a comparatively less exciting lineup, and that returns the Jays to being a slightly above average team in a division where you need to be overwhelmingly great to survive. The Rays and Orioles are head of the Jays in the division in a year where the Jays felt like a shoo-in for at least 2nd. The pitching is only marginally better, as the 'break in case of emergency' starters, Eric Lauer and Patrick Corbin, are already several starts into the season, Scherzer's looking really cooked and Jeff Hoffman forgot how to save games.

Of course this team can turn things around, as they've done it before. But it just seems like even more of an uphill battle than last year. In 2025, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. felt like one of many prime, pivotal hitters, and now it feels like more is on his shoulders again. Hopefully the rest begin to step up soon.

Coming Tomorrow- He was elite, he got hurt, he struggled...and now he appears to be back.  

Un-X-pected

 

A Padres team desperate for starting pitching, where Fernando Tatis has 0 home runs and Xander Bogaerts has 3, has won 17 games, with 9 of those wins being saved by Mason Miller, who has yet to allow a run. I knew these post-Seidler teams were gonna be weird, but this is wild, guys.

I always expected these Padres teams to come down to Tatis and Machado, and so far neither has been much of a factor. Tatis is technically hitting, and stealing bases, but the power numbers are way down. Machado's hitting .188, and the fear is that the peak years may have subsided. Jackson Merrill is doing *alright*, but he's not 2024 good yet. And so...having Xander Bogaerts around to ace the contact game again is a very good thing. He's looked a bit aimless the last couple years, but now he's back to leading the team in hits and returning to his old power perks. It's a little weird that a team the Padres now needs guys like Ramon Laureano and Miguel Andujar to do a lot of the run production work, but Bogie running things was always a hope when they signed him, and though he's not completely in world-beating mode like he was in Boston, he's still feeling more like himself than he has in a while.

And that's the ultimate feeling. There's a definite spark that is lifting this team over the competition, and it's led to a start that's put them, at long last, at the top of the division with the Dodgers. Now, last year, if you'll recall, the Padres had so many opportunities to gain a cushion against LA but simply could not, due to constantly losing their divisional matchups together. This year, even if there's still some weak spots in the lineup, they've gained enough momentum early to match up to the Dodgers. It's an unassuming Padres team to do this with, but it's appreciated.

Once again, I do worry about the thin rotation aspect. Musgrove isn't back for a couple more weeks, Pivetta's probably mid-May, Canning's second half. They just went and got Lucas Giolito, like they should have two months ago, and Walker Buehler and German Marquez are beginning to wear out their welcomes. Right now it's just Randy Vasquez and Michael King looking halfway decent up there, and while it may be enough for now, there's gonna be a point in the season where you need 5 strong options. I don't care how good your bullpen is, you can't go on 2 sure things and a prayer. It's kind of the exact opposite of the Dodgers' playoff strategy last year, giving all the relief opportunities to starters and hoping the actual relievers don't need to go in.

I still think the Padres can surprise people this year, and if people like Machado, Merrill and Tatis really take off, the Dodgers could have some serious trouble on their hands this year. 

Coming Tonight: I think there was a moment a few years ago where I was beginning to think the hype around this guy could be overblown. I don't anymore.