Cyclical Justice

 

It's only fitting that some of these guys that came over around the time the Nationals started mailing things in and trading their stars are now expected to be traded later this year. Like it's not a full Rays strategy thing where no one has a chance, but...the Nationals are still essentially where they were at the beginning of this whole thing. Trying to build something, trying to catch fire, yet still being in the NL East where there's already three competitors. 

I honestly don't see a universe where the Nats don't shop C.J. Abrams this year. You can tell he's at the top of his game still, and he's off to the best start of his career, hitting .297 with 8 homers and 27 RBIs. Typically he finishes around the 60s in regards to RBIs, so seeing that he's around half that, and it's early May...things are looking pretty good. It's not like the Nats are completely starved for infield options, and they probably have a shortstop prospect on the way eventually [Willits isn't gonna be immediate but maybe in a year or so he'll be ready]. Losing Abrams won't kill them if they still have Wood and Hassell around. 

But knowing this team, they're probably not gonna stop there either. Every year the Nats have one guy they picked up for nothing who becomes a major July target. Jeimer Candelario was one, Jesse Winker was one, Mike Soroka was one. This year it might be Joey Wiemer. Dude got dropped by like 3 different teams, becomes a bench guy in Washington and takes off, hitting .318 with 3 homers, 8 RBIs and 3 doubles in 58 at-bats. If the Brewers still had this guy they wouldn't have to go and get Brandon Lockridge as the 'break in case of Chourio emergency' outfielder. Maybe they'll get him back, who knows. 

There's definitely still some building blocks that will remain even if there's a mass exodus in a couple months. Nasim Nunez is leading the league in stolen bases with 14, James Wood has 10 homers and a ton of walks, Daylen Lile hasn't hit a triple yet but can still mash and hit for contact. Foster Griffin, a 30-year-old rookie, has been the team's best starter thus far with a 2.27 ERA. There's still plenty of people coming, and plenty of people to fill roles in the meantime. It just means it's kind of a boring team for a bit. Wood and Abrams will at least make things interesting on occasion, but this still isn't a full team performance, and this still isn't getting anyone anywhere. 

Coming Tomorrow- Wild that he's still pitching. Wild that he's still pitching in Missouri. 

One More Dragon to Slay

 

2025 was a very nice year for me, a year where neither the Astros, the Cardinals or the Rays made the playoffs. Those three organizations infuriate me to no end for different reasons, and the Rays' insistence on not paying their players yet still building great teams make them particularly infuriating. What's the point of constructing a great team yet not having the incentive to cultivate it? George Harrison had a line about the record industry once, 'they don't care much for the music, they want the blood from a clone', and that really sums up the Rays mentality. To them it's more cost-efficient to trade a star for someone who could do the star's work and become big enough in three years to repeat the cycle. 

So this is another year of the Rays' usual approach, and so far, despite the usual lack of offseason effort [to a degree], the Rays are in 2nd place and surging after a strong week. Why should anything make sense?

As discussed, Yandy Diaz is the last 2020 Ray standing on this team. If you want to count McClanahan, I suppose you can, but he was active for the series and not the season so it's fuzzy. Hilariously there are more people on this team who were in the Dodgers' system in 2020 [Lux, Feduccia, Grove, Uceta, Pepiot, DeLuca], than there were people in the Rays system that year. THAT is dedication. You don't wind up with that many ex-Dodgers from that era accidentally, especially in comparison to your own organizational products. That's why it's been refreshing seeing actual Rays products like Caminero, Aranda and Simpson inherit the team in addition to all the traded guys. 

But Diaz is a rare case in that A.) the Rays have kept him around, and B.) he's actually performed consistently well in Tampa. I did not expect former Cleveland also-ran infielder Yandy Diaz to become the beloved power-hitting elder statesman corner infielder he is with the Rays, but it's still great to see. Diaz is 34, and potentially looking at his last season in Tampa [unless they decide to re-sign him [canned laughter]], and still a very crucial part of this lineup. So far he's hitting .333 with 21 RBIs, 5 homers and a .926 OPS. He's on track to even surpass some career highs from last year. Is a 30+ homer year out of the question, even if he just had his first 25 homer year last year? Not at all. Nothing makes sense in Tampa.

But, as it tends to happen, the things not making sense line up in a way that's advantageous for this team. Chandler Simpson's hitting .300 with 11 stolen bases, which is enough to distract you from his defense. Nick Martinez has a 1.70 ERA through his first 6 starts, which is strong enough to distract you from the fact that the 6 man from the Reds is now the top guy for the Rays. Shane McClanahan has a 3.10 ERA and 30 Ks, which is enough to distract you from his two lost seasons. Jonathan Aranda leads the league in RBIs right now with 27, which is enough to distract you from his .230 average. The lineup, while not always pretty, is producing runs, even if the bullpen is still a mess. And the Rays finish the week with a scorching display of wins...against teams like the Twins and Giants.

The Rays could still make something happen this year, but I see a week like this one and I still see the deep flaws and long term issues that prevent them from building this into a long term dynasty. Not that the owners care much, as usual.

Coming Tomorrow- Very weird to me that you could describe this guy as one of the veteran staples of the Nationals now. It doesn't feel like 5 years have gone by, that's for sure.

The Plan Backfires Hilariously [Again]

 

So. Let's go back to 2021. The Giants, for years, have been bogged down by older players and a youth movement that's refusing to happen. This is their last real chance to compete, as Buster Posey's lit a fire under them. Belt, Crawford, Posey, Longoria, Yaz, they develop a strong lineup where nearly no one's under 30. A whole core of veterans, flanked by a 27-year-old centerfielder who'd never have another healthy season, with a bench of 30somethings, a rotation of thirtysomethings, and one rogue young kid named Logan Webb burning it down as well. They win over 100 games and are a monolith heading into the playoffs.

Now...this, and this may shock you, but this was not sustainable.

So, alright. Managers come and go, approaches change, Posey takes over, they develop a new young team, bring up people like Drew Gilbert and Hayden Birdsong and Grant McCray and Carson Whisenhunt. People who can take over. And they also get a ton of great contracted players, they trade for Rafael Devers, they actually build something. And after all of that...we have a last place Giants team where the 30somethings are doing all the work. AFTER ALL OF THAT, nothing's changed.

I'm just mystified by the Rafael Devers factor. Because you get this guy who can hit for power like nobody else, and was even doing so in Boston while feuding with the team, and for whatever reason he can't get it together. He's hitting .211 with 2 homers and 12 RBIs after a month. He had a cold start last year, but by the end of April he was hitting em out with no issue. What's going on here? The only person who's struck out more than Devers is Willy Adames, who's actually playing close to well, at least defensively. But all these young, foundational guys, like Heliot Ramos, Patrick Bailey, Jung Hoo Lee, Drew Gilbert, Landon Roupp...they're doing either very okay or almost good. Roupp is 5-2 with a 3.18 ERA, he gives up a few more runs than necessary, but he's basically good. Ramos is okay, Gilbert still hasn't clicked in the majors, Lee is fine but unspectacular, Bailey still can't hit. Even Logan Webb is struggling this season, which I attribute to the fatigue of carrying the team the last five years. 

And so the team's coming down to guys like Matt Chapman, Luis Arraez, Robbie Ray, guys who are 29 to 30, or more, and verging on leaving their peak. Chapman's doing his thing, he only has to hit so well but he's so good at third that you forget. Quietly he might be one of the best third basemen of his era, but nobody really wants to admit it. Arraez not only is hitting .300 again but he's actually a lot better defensively this year, mostly because he's frequenting 2nd rather than 1st. Ray, despite having 4 losses, has a 2.60 ERA and looks like his old self. It's just frustrating that the younger guys are sort of following in line behind them rather than inheriting the team.

Until that happens, you're gonna get irrelevant, last-place Giants teams like this. There's honestly some good stuff to speak of here, which is more than I can say from some other last place teams, but despite all the forethought we've ended up back where we started, which has to be frustrated. And there's a way out, but it's not gonna happen all at once.

Coming Tonight: The last 2020 Rays member still standing in Tampa. Unsurprisingly he's playing really well right now.

Suddenly Big Amish

 

Is it funny to anyone else that a guy from Amish Country is currently leading the league in walks?

If there was a baseball stat involving a wagon, he'd probably lead the league in that too. Regardless, Lancaster native Nick Kurtz, lovingly referred to as the Big Amish, has continued his run as an offensive powerhouse for the A's. If you walk him, it's very likely one of the A's other power hitters [Rooker, Langeliers, Soderstrom] will get him home. If you don't, there's also a chance he could go yard. The big man currently has 5 home runs and 15 RBIs, and he might have had more if it weren't for that walk streak, which keeps on going. He's had 33 so far this season, which is Soto/Bonds levels. People have caught onto just how volatile this guy can be at the plate, and they're trying to avoid it as much as possible. For a 23 year old with one season under his belt, that speaks volumes.

Also, um...can we talk about the fact that Nick Kurtz and the A's are in first place right now? Seriously. The nomadic Sacramento A's have the best record in the AL West, better than Seattle or Houston. Which is what happens when you build a great young lineup and sign the majority of them to contracts.

And you can just see this team evolving as well, even from 1st. Shea Langeliers is now a .300 hitter in addition to a home run machine. He leads this team in hits! Carlos Cortes has gone from a bench novelty to an everyday outfield hit machine, batting .391 in 69 at-bats. Jacob Wilson's contact stuff, though not as three-dimensional as last year, is still very appreciated. Tyler Soderstrom is leading the team in RBIs without needing to resort to the long ball as much. And even Jeff McNeil can be a positive contributor here, hitting .286. The momentum this team has right now has made McNeil, Aaron Civale and J.T. Ginn pivotal figures in a year where I figured they'd be also-rans.

I mean, the rotation in general is still hard to figure out, because I'm not really confident about any of them. Jeffrey Springs looks good right now but he could get hurt again at any second. Same with Luis Severino, K's be damned. I thought that last year meant homegrown guys like Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales were gonna inherit the rotation and charge forward, but evidently that's not happening yet. It's frustrating, because any time there's an opportunity for someone like Morales or Joey Estes or Gunnar Hoglund to make a name for themselves, it just doesn't happen. And we're back to the veteran contract guys doing all the work. Imagine if the Brewers last year had Jose Quintana and Brandon Woodruff do all the work while Chad Patrick, Miz and Logan Henderson all shirked the responsibility. That's what this is like.

But...they're still in first place, because the rotation's at least durable enough, despite it being made up of mostly replacement level guys. So something's gotta be working.

I want this team to advance and remain a major player in this division, but some of these baby teeth are gonna need to fall out soon. This team needs a rookie pitcher to spice things up, and we need Butler, Rooker and Muncy to start hitting. This is a very nice start, but at any point the Rangers or Mariners could sweep in and make the division theirs. The A's just need to make a statement and fend all those guys off with their own might. I dunno if it can happen yet.

Coming Tonight: A former Athletic, ironically, still manning the corner further towards the water.

More Than Skenes [For Once]

 

The bad news is the Pirates are in last place after losing 5 straight. The good news is that they're a last place team that's at .500, with the same record as the Tigers and Guardians. And the even better news is that they still have Paul Skenes.

The idea that Skenes would someday headline a halfway decent Pirates team was always possible, if unlikely, but this is the best they've looked in years, and Skenes is very much at the forefront. Though the quest for a sub-2 ERA for the third season in a row will be harder than usual thanks to that damn Mets start, he's still got a 3.18 ERA, a 4-2 record and 39 strikeouts. The domination that Skenes has always been capable of has continued, even through a rocky start. I do worry this will be a little closer to normal than usual for Skenes, as he's giving up more homers than expected, and just last night he gave up one to J.J. Wetherholt. But there's no true warning signs, and he's not having much trouble getting through games. 

The most telling part of the improved climate of this team is that it's not on Skenes as much as last year to carry the team. Keller and Ashcraft are strong starting options around him that can also carry the weight. Keller always looks like he's gonna worry people but he's got things worked out at last, and has a 3.18 ERA through 6 starts. Ashcraft has 39 Ks in 6 starts, as many as Skenes in 7, so that's pretty cool. Carmen Mlodzinski's innings-eating has parlayed into a fine starting spot. And the bullpen is better than it's been in a while, with Gregory Soto, Yohan Ramirez, Mason Montgomery, Isaac Mattson and Dennis Santana working on excellent seasons. 

And then suddenly, out of nowhere, we finally have a Pirates team that can hit. Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz, Ryan O'Hearn and Bryan Reynolds are all optimally raising the quality of the power hitting game. Cruz's is a lot more lopsided because he's still making mistakes in center, but those 9 homers say a lot. Lowe has been really fantastic in Pittsburgh, that's exactly why they dealt for him. O'Hearn is working as a corner infield/OF/DH bat. And Reynolds is hitting again. After a really weak 2025, Bryan Reynolds is hitting .246 with 19 RBIs and 3 homers, which is an improvement. Konnor Griffin's slowly warming up as well, and hopefully by midyear he's more comfortable in the bigs.

It's a Pirates team that's verging on multifaceted, with a lot of really interesting angles and upsides. I really do think they can outweigh the Cardinals and potentially even compete this year. Remember, we don't know how long they've got left with Skenes, so they've gotta do something soon.

Coming Tomorrow- My fantasy team this year has the very clever name of Big Amish Paradise, which was attained from picking up this guy right when he went on his HR tear last year. 

Borderline Good [for the AL Central]

 

You've probably heard by now how messy the AL Central is in general this year. There are decent teams, but they're so flawed that they can't really ascend to actual good records. The Tigers and Guardians are good but held back by not being great yet. The Royals have decent bones but just aren't playing well at all right now. The Twins got off to a better start than expected but still have little to no depth.

So that means this is the kind of division where the White Sox, while still very much in rebuild mode, can be a third place team. Yes, the very same White Sox.

I dunno, it's weird. Cause technically this is still a bad White Sox team. We're honestly a step back from 2025 because Shane Smith stopped pitching well, Kyle Teel got hurt, the Anthony Kay gaijin plan didn't work as well as year three of the Erick Fedde gaijin plan, and the bulk of the saves has been handled by Seranthony Dominguez, who...like, the Ryan Murphy 911 show wouldn't put him in position to save anybody. And that show has killer bees every few weeks I think.

But like...I can point to several formative, crucial performers on this team that can also be discussed in baseball in general. Davis Martin's off to a sneakily good start, he's 4-1 with a 1.95 ERA and 33 Ks through his first six starts. Sean Burke and Erick Fedde also have ERAs under 3.50, and Noah Schultz has looked very good in his initial starts in the bigs. That they're essentially using an opener to fill that fifth spot due to the fear of letting Anthony Kay getting lit up from the jump is another factor entirely, but that's a decent rotation. Colson Montgomery already has 8 homers and 21 RBIs, and his power perks were not exaggerated by his 2025 come-up. Miguel Vargas also has 6 homers and 15 RBIs. I'm really not sure what to make of Vargas still, whether he's a formative piece or just a placeholder, but he seems to be helping. And then, now that you mention it, there's also that Murakami guy who's already hit 12 home runs and would be doing so even if he was forced to play in the decaying Oakland Coliseum. 

The odd thing about this team is how many of these crucial pieces, or even fun replacement level pieces, originated in other farm systems. Meidroth and Teel obviously came from the Crochet deal, Vargas from the Edman/Fedde deal [funny how that worked out for the ChiSox], but Edgar Quero was traded for Lucas Giolito, Luisangel Acuna was traded for Luis Robert, Shane Smith was a Rule 5 pick, and Bryan Hudson, Derek Hill, Jarred Kelenic, Drew Romo and Jordan Hicks all came over in cheap deals for next to nothing. So while on one hand it does feel like an island of misfit toys for people desperate for playing time...some of these guys have become helpful MLB options again. Hudson went from being absolutely cooked last year to becoming, once again, a viable relief option. Romo hit his first two MLB homers the other day. Even Sean Newcomb has been helpful in long relief. Somehow it's just getting done.

I don't know if this means the White Sox have legs this season, as there's still far too many people not hitting, but they may have a more dignified season than they've had in a while, and I'm all for that. 

Coming Tonight: Oh, just the best pitcher in baseball, no big deal.

One Saving Grace

 

So uh...not sure if y'all have been up on it, but things haven't been going particularly well for the Mets. They had that epic losing streak, lost Lindor to the IL, now will be without Luis Robert for a bit. The mood is generally pessimistic. Even the die-hard Mets fans are worried. Because Steve Cohen did exactly what he said he was gonna do, and loaded this team with grade-A talent, both homegrown and contracted, and put them all in position to succeed, and they're still getting embarrassed. It both makes absolutely no sense and makes all the sense in the world at the same time. 

Here are some facts. There's only one member of the starting lineup with a WAR greater than 0.2, that being Juan Soto. Francisco Alvarez currently leads the team in home runs with a whopping four, and as a reminder we're one month into the season and not one week. The 'Bo Bichette at third base' experiment is going about as well as you might expect, bringing us back to the 90s trend of a Bichette excelling at the game while being dragged backwards by being forced to play the field 162 games. Most of the production in the last two weeks has come from M.J. Melendez, who somehow wasn't able to do this well enough to keep a job in Kansas City. David Peterson, Kodai Senga and Devin Williams all look positively cooked, and a suddenly-healthy Christian Scott isn't looking much better at the moment. 

This team is hitting .227. You get Robert, Semien, Bichette, Soto, Lindor and Alvarez in the same lineup and you still end up hitting .227. At the very least it's not for a lack of trying, but it's just not what you want from these circumstances. 

What is exciting, though, is that the team has unwittingly returned to the deGrom era, in the sense that they're putting out a genuinely terrific starting pitcher every 5 days and getting little to no run support for him. Nolan McLean is undeniably a star, and is pitching like a tenured pro even less than a year into his big league career. So far he's got a 2.55 ERA, an 0.849 WHIP and 45 Ks through 6 starts. Only one win though, which is very reminiscent of deGrom's luck in Queens. I do have a feeling this team will be good again before McLean has to play somewhere else, because if an arm like that gets wasted on teams like these, I don't think Mets fans will be able to take it. At least Doc Gooden got a World Series ring, man. Tom Seaver too. 

At the very least there's been a slight improvement since the losing streak, but the Mets are still blowing games to the Nationals, and that's not a good look. There is still time to build something here, and with a team like this it definitely can be done. But this is not the way you want to start a season like this. I dunno if it'll take a Soto-led sea change or a Mendoza firing for things to get better, but something will need to happen soon.

Coming Tomorrow- Another mid-2025 callup that's playing a major role in his big league club. This team, if you can believe it, might be in more dire shape than the Mets.