It's Yours. Go Take It.

 

I think the best word to describe the Mariners this year would be 'reluctant'. So far this year, the AL West has been led by the Athletics, who then punted and fell apart last month, then the Rangers, who are likely going to relinquish it again soon, all while the Mariners flirt with greatness while being the only great team in the division. Like you kinda want to let them in on it, right? Like, these other guys are gonna keep doing this, you have to try and stay ahead of them or this whole thing is gonna be for nothing. 

The Mariners, just like in 2024, have a rotation full of people genuinely good at what they're doing, and not in danger of going anywhere. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock and Bryan Woo are all working on terrific seasons, and not in a worrying way. Longevity is the name of the game with all these guys, especially Gilbert, Kirby and Woo. Gilbert's been here since 2021, he's still extremely good and makes all his starts, and this season he's got a 3.38 ERA and 129 Ks in 20 starts. Bryce Miller's only made 10 starts so far and he has a 2.27 ERA, with 71 Ks and a 2.0 WAR. Miller was doing this sort of lights-out work in last year's playoffs, and is gearing up for a similar run if the Mariners have it in them this year.

And...do they?? No one on this team has more than 15 homers. No one on this team has more than 48 RBIs. No one on this team is hitting over .281. Josh Naylor and Cal Raleigh were supposed to carry this team and are doing very okay, and Cole Young and Randy Arozarena are essentially doing all the work. Julio Rodriguez has 15 homers and 43 RBIs, and we've all seen him do better. He just picks the weirdest times to heat up honestly. Same with Luke Raley, who was wonderful in mid-May and has completely evaporated any sense of forward momentum. It's not that this team isn't hitting; many of them are. The issue is that the unified intimidation factor from last year, where any of Rodriguez or Arozarena or Naylor or Raley or Canzone can beat your ass, seems to be gone. Maybe Cole Young will drive in a run and get 3 hits but nobody's an everyday hero this year. They just pick their moments. Also Cole Emerson is still ramping up to the numbers the prospectors assumed he'd be at by now. We can't have another Jarred Kelenic on our hands.

The Mariners have a habit of lining everything up in August, and that'll need to happen this time. Last time they were a little better than they are now, and more of a position to buy. Right now they're a hare under .500 and need to win over the Rangers to retake the division. They had two low-level teams this week and went 3-3. If this series goes similarly they may need the help even more than they initially did. Hopefully whatever happens makes them into a better competitor, because if it's this current incarnation, I don't think the run's lasting as long as last year's.

Coming Tonight: Former World Series catcher having, at last, a strong and healthy year once again. 

Seiya So

 

Usually around this time of year, the Chicago Cubs are either cartwheeling out of a playoff spot or cartwheeling out of first. This year's no different. The Brewers have a padded lead of the NL Central, and 7 games back are the Cubs, at 57-45, well over .500 after their stumble in late May. They've been rock-solid ever since, are still a proven competitor, and are looking at a playoff spot, even if it's not the safest one. I know this sounds an awful lot like last season's Cubs team, but they swear it's different.

Although, last season's Cubs team had a healthy Cade Horton, better seasons from Imanaga, Boyd and Taillon, and the Kyle Tucker factor. Now we have a mediocre Alex Bregman season, a snakebitten rotation, a very scattered bullpen [Palencia keeps getting hurt], and an alarming lack of upward momentum. Matt Shaw, Kevin Alcantara and Moises Ballesteros are all stalling at the gate after big callups last year, and there haven't been any real younger Cubs coming to save the rotation either. Is this team moving forward? Can it move forward at all?

If this team does anything long-term this season, it'll be because the lineup has packed so much run production in there that other teams can't handle it. Seiya Suzuki has 17 homers, 53 RBIs and an .831 OPS, and this is a walk in the park year for him. He routinely gets the OPS over .800, routinely produces tons of runs. Just a steady RBI guy, the exact kind of guy the team needed without being too big or two one-dimensional. Michael Busch has been like that too, just gets in there, produces runs, doesn't need to do much else. He's only got 13 home runs and 54 RBIs but the season's still sort of young. Ian Happ has 18 homers and 45 RBIs, and has continued to be this consistent source of power for a good half-decade or so.  Dansby Swanson's very hot-and-cold, but when he's hot he's unstoppable. And then you have Pete Crow-Armstrong once again working on an MVP campaign, not only hitting .282 with a .900 OPS, 22 homers, 55 RBIs and 25 steals, but some of the best outfield catches in the game. He's nailing every facet of this game and doing exactly what the Cubs knew he could. 

Beyond that, there's still work to be done. David Peterson and Jameson Taillon are getting crucial big game situations and can't really contend with them right now. Imanaga and Boyd are okay but have been better. There's no slam dunk guy in this rotation because Steele and Horton are out, and while Steele should be back soonish, a lot will be on his shoulders when he does get back. Basically, this team isn't a playoff WINNING team if they don't have starters that know what they're doing. The Cubs will be going up against teams like the Brewers, Dodgers, Braves and Phillies, and they all have excellent rotations for a playoff schematic. What do the Cubs have right now? And if they want Skubal, do they have the prospects to make it work? Will they GO for Kevin Alcantara or Matt Shaw? 

The Cubs have a team that could surprise some people this year, it's just not complete, and I don't know if it will be.

Coming Tomorrow- Something I've noticed in the last couple seasons is that he may not be prompt, he may not begin the season on the active roster, but when he gets there, he makes it count. 

G Unit

 

I had issues a few years ago with the Guardians calling up a supplementary younger rotation while its preexisting rotation [Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, Carrasco] was still hanging around. And for a bit it was this weird mix of old and new arms, and there was this dissonance that didn't entirely work. Then last year something finally clicked, and we settled on a formula of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi and....Logan Allen.

And then Parker Messick swung in for Allen and we all went 'yeah, that does work a lot better.'

It hasn't always been pretty. Cecconi is still mostly an innings eater. Bibee will have some rough starts. Williams can still be wild. But this unit has gotten more done than most other incarnations, and that's because they all do exactly what's asked. Joey Cantillo is 8-5, has 112 strikeouts, and though he has a higher WHIP because of the walks he gives up, he's still a solid MLB starter with, funnily enough, the same record as Parker Messick who has a much lower ERA and is much more fundamentally strong pitcher. I always thought Gavin Williams was the best overall pitcher here, as the strikeout artist, but he's got a 4 ERA and 10 wins.

And then Tanner Bibee, who goes back and forth between steady and infuriating, is on a pretty steady run. He's got his ERA down to 3.86, has a 1.151 WHIP, and despite the Guardians continuously not winning his starts [he's got 9 losses], he's still a smart choice and a good guy to pack innings on. I'm glad he's settled in, and I'm glad he's got Messick and Williams to sort of fall in behind. It's like how Aaron Nola needed Zack Wheeler. Bibee seems to have the hang of things, and could get even stronger as we go.

The Guardians were already good, and now some of the things that weren't working before have been clicking into place. Steven Kwan is finally hitting again, and is hitting .400 this month with 18 hits and 5 RBIs, back to what's expected for the fan favorite. Austin Hedges is somehow hitting .280, and Patrick Bailey has somehow been hitting pretty nice as a backup catcher. Jose Ramirez just came off the IL and immediately hit a home run. DeLauter's heating up again, Gaddis is looking like his 2025 peak again, and Rhys Hoskins is somehow still leading the team in home runs. It's still not entirely pretty but the formula works, and there's enough to keep charging at Chicago.

As I'm writing this it's not looking like they're gonna top the White Sox quite yet, but they're still threatening to, and it could happen very soon if the Sox aren't careful. Look, with all the rough records in the first half, the Guardians are gonna be over .500 and competitive very soon, and it'll make the first half all worth it.

Coming Tonight: Cubs RBI machine, third or fourth year running. 

Find Grant

[First of all, to the MLB intern who did a Game Changer tribute post on twitter, including a 'Count the Ben Rice' and 'Find Grant Holmes', may you be rewarded for your niche interests. Game Changer, for those of you who aren't aware...oh god that's all of you, and it's a lot to explain. Consult your nearest weird nephew I guess. But it's a good thing. I swear.]

Grant Holmes becoming a household-ish name is not something I'd have predicted. I pulled a card of him out of 2015 Pro Debut, this schtarker of a Dodgers minor leaguer with a massive afro looking larger than anyone else on the field. And I'm going 'this is what counts for a Dodgers prospect these days? Ookay.' And of all the prospects from that set that didn't make the majors, he was at least one of the more notable ones. You don't forget a Grant Holmes. I genuinely thought he was Australian. Nah, just large. But he stuck around the minors for a decade, becoming a fixture of the A's double-A and triple-A teams, then right as he was getting the hang of things the pandemic happened, as did some strain concerns. He was cut in mid-2022, picked up by the Braves and kept as a minor league piece, eventually making the majors, at last, in 2024 at age 28. And from there it only got better, as Holmes' availability became his saving grace, as his low-velocity, leverage-friendly stuff kept him from missing much time, and gave him a fair amount of playing time compared to the other, more injury-prone Braves starters.

Holmes is now 30, and he's having his fullest season to date, with a 3.70 ERA, 78 Ks and a 6-4 record in 18 starts. It's not flashy [the Braves have Chris Sale for that] but it is efficient. He's gotten into some trouble fairly recently, especially the later he goes in games, but he's enough of a rock that the Braves don't have to worry too greatly. It's very odd that guys like Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes and Martin Perez have provided more stability to this rotation than Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider and Huston Waldrep. That's how good the Braves are this year, they did well with a rotation of Chris Sale and some scrubs essentially. And now things are kind of turning around and it's possible that they're gonna need a fuller, younger rotation to keep the Phillies and Marlins away.

Thankfully this team still has Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris playing beautifully, and Ronald Acuna should be back fairly soon. The team also seems to have found their everyday shortstop, as Jim Jarvis, the guy they got from the Tigers last year for Rafael Montero, is batting .292 in 15 games and already is becoming a fan favorite. Austin Riley finally seems to be heating up, Mike Yastrzemski is providing great insurance as a depth outfielder, and the bullpen currently holds three of the most dangerous relievers in the game right now. It's a well-rounded team that's gotten over its June swoon and is still staying ahead of the Phils [who, luckily for the Braves, had to play the defending champions this week]. 

It's a team that can utilize Grant Holmes prominently and it's still a good team. I kinda love that.

Coming Tomorrow- He was supposed to be the ace of his current rotation. That hasn't really happened, but he's still a pretty strong arm on there.

Bake-Off

 

Once again, you have to hand it to the Rays. They took talent that was lying dormant in another market, nabbed him for a bargain, made him a star and will now likely profit. Bryan Baker, you may have struggled to find stability with the O's, but now you're an all-star closer for a competitor. Somehow.

Baker I always liked with the Orioles because he was one of those constants that the fans loved. Made most of his appearances, did his job efficiently, balanced out the rough moments. I saw him pitch for the O's last year before he was traded and he seemed to have his stuff. The Rays must have known. They dealt for him, worked on some things, and gave him the ninth. So far he's got 25 saves with a 1.69 ERA, and has been the bright spot of a Rays bullpen that is doing its best without the homegrown depth it usually has. Ian Seymour, Cole Sulser and Garrett Cleavinger are usually viable options but they're not having great seasons. Casey Legumina still isn't the answer. They picked up Chris Roycroft and he hasn't been much better. Even late career Craig Kimbrel is flailing given the opportunity. I guess they can't have a young collective of ace relievers again for another couple years. 

It goes to show that the Tampa Bay Rays, most years but especially this one, specialize in having guys that can do one thing extremely well and most other things not well at all. They corner the market on niche specialists with no range. Where else can you find Nick Fortes, a catcher that doesn't hit and doesn't need to, Chandler Simpson, an ace-base stealer who hits triples but can't hit home runs, Ryan Vilade, who's built like an armed bodyguard but can't play left field, Richie Palacios, who...we're still not sure what he does well but the Rays sure need him, and Taylor Walls, the best infield defender in baseball with literally no offensive ability. The idea is these people don't need to be good at everything, they need to be good at the thing that they're best at, and pooling their resources together, they make a great team.

Now, granted, this only works because of the presence of a choice few multifaceted pieces, such as Junior Caminero, Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda, but the Rays-ball mentality of putting in the guy that works the best vs. the most well known and expensive version just works. It's been nearly a decade of this, you can never count these teams out, they're never bottom feeders and they're always one strong month away from competing. Right now they're competitive. Does this have to do with the fact that the Yankees are in a downswing? I'm supposed to say no. But in all honesty, the Rays are very good this year, have had a very nice month, and despite losing three straight to the Red Sox, still have a nice hold on the AL East. It's an imperfect hold, and the Yanks are shooting back up again, but they're not exactly gonna lay down and die either. 

Coming Tonight: A minor league lifer, doesn't throw too hard, relies on trickery and pitch selection. Happens to come into a rotation spot with one of the best organizations in the bigs. Is now suddenly a decent name. 

Wake Up, Edman

 

So, Yankees-Dodgers was this weekend, which means it was high time for the Yankee fans to complain that they can't win anything and are still spiraling despite the fact that they had to play a very good team, with a very good lineup, and are missing Aaron Judge. Calm down, we're gonna flash forward two months and the worrying will have been for nothing.

The Dodgers continue to be annoyingly perfect. Obviously still flawed, but not flawed enough for anything to go wrong. Like, okay, Will Smith's out for another month and the everyday catcher is Dalton Rushing, a power hitter with a foul mood whose inability to get on the same page as Shohei Ohtani on the mound might lead to Ohtani just not pitching til Smith comes back. On any other team that could be a 'trouble in paradise' headline, a 'maybe they're not as good as we thought' moment. Nope, they're still winning games. Kyle Tucker, the big offseason acquisition, is hitting .244 with only 7 home runs. No big deal, he's still in the lineup virtually everyday and Alex Call can go in for him. Edwin Diaz, the other big offseason acquisition, is hurt for probably the rest of the year, leaving them without a working closer. Well, of course this is the part where Tanner Scott actually figures his shit out, brings his ERA back to 2.50 and notches 14 saves. The whole bullpen is ridiculous actually. It's 5 guys that just get up there, only allow a run or so and make their next appearance. And then maybe occasionally Eric Lauer is needed for long work. Even something that was supposed to work differently snaps into something that's efficient anyway.

Tommy Edman was hurt for a bit, as he tends to be, and now he's back and immediately one of the best hitters on the team again. In 23 games he's hitting .343, with 2 home runs and 12 RBIs, including that needed home run last night in the Bronx [that, of course, was their only run in that game]. This wasn't even a needed burst of offensive help, they have Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages, but Edman is that extra piece guy that makes a team like this better. Usually it's Kiké Hernandez, he's been hurt. To this point it was Alex Call, he pales in comparison. Edman's versatile defensively, he's contact-friendly and he can just go on a tear when you need him to. I have no idea how the Cardinals convinced themselves they'd be better off without him and with Erick Fedde. J.J. Wetherholt is nice and all but you need an x-factor guy like Edman to come in and do everything. It's why guys like David Freese and Jedd Gyorko were so important to these teams last decade.

The Dodgers are the frontrunner yet again, and the most efficient and successful team in the bigs, again. Their challenge will be to carry this all the way into October again and pull off the all-too-rare threepeat. Remember, the Chiefs couldn't do it. They went into New Orleans thinking the threepeat was on the horizon and then the Eagles kicked their asses. And they were never the same. The Dodgers, if they're not careful, could end up like that. It's not the most likely outcome, it's also likely they could once again waltz to the end without anyone stopping them and set up a lockout. But we'll have to see what develops. Because we don't know how long Ohtani will be missing starts for, and we don't know how long it'll take Tucker and Betts to heat up, and we don't know if somebody else can get hotter, like in 2019 and 2022. For now, I'll just expect the Dodgers' story to remain the same and brace myself for the idea of a hard right turn.

Coming Tonight: The Orioles tried to make this guy their relief ace. It didn't work. So of course the Rays have more success. 

Latz Entertainment

 

Jacob Latz is not only the perfect summation of what closing pitching has turned into in the MLB, he's also the perfect summation of the Texas Rangers. 30 years old, oft-injured, never an opening day starter, given the chance to just pitch the ninth and becomes an all-star...and also the best player on the team. A team that is currently first in the AL West and one game above .500, with multiple stars hurt and/or underperforming. Jacob Latz is successful because they gave him a chance...but he's also, even as the closer, the most successful player on the Rangers.

Like, I bet they're all really happy that Latz is working out in the ninth. It's been a while since they've had a good long-term solution there. Mostly they'll just have one-year experiment, an Ian Kennedy or a Kirby Yates or a David Robertson. Latz is a younger, controllable option who's still in excellent shape and is only getting stronger. Right now he's got a 1.57 ERA, 19 saves, 47 Ks, a 0.652 WHIP, and a 2.3 WAR, which is higher than that of, say, Jacob deGrom or Corey Seager or Wyatt Langford. It just proves how valuable great relief pitching is to this team, and Tyler Alexander and Jake Junis are similarly valuable. When a lot of the games are close and a lot of the lineup is underperforming...the bullpen can be the MVP.

The ideals have changed. This is a cheesier power team now, with Jake Burger and Joc Pederson among the most valuable hitters, and some of the usual contact guys [Evan Carter, Josh Smith, Alejandro Osuna] not really doing the job. It is somewhat promising that some of the formative pieces are hitting better, and Wyatt Langford and Josh Jung have OPSs over .800. Langford still hasn't put together the 162-game campaign he's been waiting for, but he's hot right now, and has 9 homers and 23 RBIs in 46 games. Brandon Nimmo is still good, if not April good, and Ezequiel Duran is still good, if not June good. But what worries me is that Corey Seager is still hurt, and wasn't playing at peak levels before the injury. I don't know if Langford is at the point where he can really carry the team on his shoulders yet. I know Evan Carter isn't. 

Obviously this team is doing right, despite a lot of mediocre seasons [MacKenzie Gore, Kumar Rocker, Kyle Higashioka], because they're in first. It takes a lot of turnarounds after rough starts, especially from Pederson and Nate Eovaldi. Eovaldi had a rough first month or so and now he's 9-7 with a 4.04 ERA and 120 Ks, which is much closer to his usual self. Pederson took forever to start hitting and now he's got 15 homers and 35 RBIs, meaning FINALLY the Rangers can enjoy Pedey as much as literally every other team he's played for has. This team has a healthy Jacob deGrom on it, so of course it's at least kind of good. But going forward, as the Mariners re-ascend the ranks, the Rangers will need to decide whether they're a momentum team or they're actually good this year. If they can build something and sneak in, it could be a factor nobody's expecting. 

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who hit a game-tying home run against my Yankees tonight.