Arraez to the Occasion

 

Right now, the Phillies are entangled in yet another weekend series with the Braves, trying to creep up on their division lead and take control in the final weeks of the season. The Phillies are likely playoff-bound, but want the higher seed [probably 3 it's looking like] in order to play from the upper hand for at least some of the postseason. Now...I'm not sure if you're aware of this, but the Phils are much more successful in this regime as a wild card team than as a team that takes a first round bye. Last year, they tried to circumvent this by holding an open practice to stay hot in between the bye. It did not work. The Dodgers crushed them anyway. Meanwhile, each time they got in as a wild card team, they made it to an NLCS, and at one point even won.

So part of me's going 'well...why do you WANT the higher seed? You're better working from behind anyway.' Last year, their 'working from ahead' NLDS was against the Dodgers, who's whole thing is they're never behind anybody. You're better as a spoiler than an alpha, be the spoiler. Let the Braves take the division and get clobbered by the six seed. That means Phils-Cubs is looking more and more like a certainty, but the Phils have the better pitching by a mile.

The issue is getting everybody to hit, though, as it has been all season. Aside from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, the Phils offense has been very variable, without many sure-things. Trea Turner and Alec Bohm are both having down seasons despite some decent enough production. Brandon Marsh WAS having a nice season, then seriously fell off after the ASG break and is now hitting .266. Justin Crawford is still not the guy that was advertised, and is still acclimating to the bigs, coming into some contact prowess. Realmuto's hitting, but nowhere near as consistently as he used to. Edmundo Sosa and Derek Hill are nice diversions but they're not the stars.

It's been nice to see Luis Arraez hitting .300 once again though, and he might go for another NL batting title. His numbers aren't as incredible as they were in San Francisco though, as statistically he's an average hitter and fielder again. What he remains is a difficult out, and he's got 41 hits and 16 RBIs in 35 games, pretty understandable for Arraez. He's also the exact kind of fun character for this club, as Harrison Bader was last year; there was a pitch during the Astros series that got so close to him that the 'AY YI YIIIII!' could be heard from the Linc. I think the Phils are still stronger with him, and I trust everyone else at their new positions more than I did at their old ones [Bohm at 1st, Stott at 3rd, it all works out].

Some of the other worrying aspects of this team are coming alive as well. Aaron Nola's had some beautiful starts lately, and now has his ERA closer to 4.50, which is about where he should be considering. The bullpen's improved, and Tim Mayza, Alex McFarlane and Jonathan Bowlan are doing what they're supposed to. Edmundo's had more and more clutch moments in recent months, and has remained a really valuable part of this team. And yeah, with how integral Bryce Harper has been to this team, I don't see how anyone would think of him as truly past his peak.

I think the Phillies have a good team this year, and could do some damage next month. I also see them falling victim to the same pitfalls that usually do them in, but...if they're in as a wild card team and can keep the momentum going, they have more of a shot than if they have the bye.

Coming Tomorrow- Big hitter for a team that's, despite being kinda good, closing up shop pretty much.

Los Encounters

 

I honestly can't be too displeased with Carlos Rodon's Yankees run so far. He's missed time, but considering his White Sox years we knew this was a possibility. When he has been healthy, he's been spot-on, with a 3.88 ERA over 4 seasons, a 42-29 record, and 532 strikeouts. This year, through 13 starts, has been prime Rodon, with a 3.09 ERA, 5 wins, 70 Ks and a 1.2 WAR. Rodon is still the same deep-game, hard throwing strikeout artist he has been at his peak, and he's done exactly what we've needed him to do. What's wild has been seeing him adapt to a mid-rotation role in the wake of Schlittler and Fried's emergence. Now he's not even the #2 guy anymore, he's just one flamethrower in a rotation of several. But when your #4 guy is Carlos Rodon, you're still doing pretty well.

The Yankees' rotation is the reason why the Rays are getting scared about now. Schlittler-Cole-Fried-Rodon-Warren is as strong as we imagined it would be, and everyone complaining in February that we didn't do enough was forgetting how good the rotation would look at season's end. Ryan Weathers will be back in a long relief role, as will [I'm guessing] Clarke Schmidt, Cole and Rodon had their rehab periods and jumped right in, and Schlittler and Warren held out and did what was asked of them [for the most part]. And now teams are going into a postseason scenario where they have to face Cole, Schlittler or Fried, or Rodon. And that's not very pleasant, no matter who's behind you.

Here's the part that's reminding me of the 2025 Dodgers. The starting options are great, the starters who aren't getting postseason rotation jobs are gonna be great long relievers, there's already Blackburn, Headrick and Yarbrough who can do the extended stuff, and then they just have John Schreiber lying around acting like the Royals didn't just waive him. There is depth to this pitching staff that was not there last year, and that can go a long way. And that's not even mentioning David Bednar, who hit his stride midyear like he usually does, and has 32 saves and a 2.63 ERA. 

Really the only concern is the hitters not showing up, which has happened before and will happen again. Aaron Judge is still easing back into his usual standard of production, Ryan McMahon and Jasson Dominguez are still not as consistent as forecast, Goldschmidt and Lombard have cooled down, and even when healthy Jazz Chisholm will do well only when he wants to. The idea is that when this lineup is on, they're not a worry, but they have those periods where nothing's happening. And the idea is that could happen when playing an actual competitive team, like it did against the Jays last year, and like it typically does against the Astros in October. The idea is that now that Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Luis Garcia and Spencer Jones are united in their quest to pummel the hell out of the ball, hopefully the production will increase to the extent where we'll just roll through.

I'd love to see this Yankees team go deep this year. I think they have enough to contend. They just need to decide whether or not that's possible for them. There's gonna be some tough teams ahead, like the Red Sox, White Sox, Rays and possibly the Astros. They need to band together and prove their superiority to past teams that have made mistakes when the competition gets tougher. The potential is there, they just need to commit. 

Coming Tonight: The Phils picked him up for his impeccable contact ability, and they're not exactly dissatisfied so far.

One Of You Has To Grow Up

 

The 2023 World Series pit two emerging, well-built teams against each other, shocking the world and making for a surprisingly competitive and entertaining series, even if people would have preferred the Phillies or Astros or Dodgers making it. Sometimes, the best teams run into each other and the wild cards win out. Considering we've had two years of one or more of the best, most overpowered teams getting to the end, it was refreshing. So many young stars, like Corbin Carroll, Evan Carter, Josh Jung, Brandon Pfaadt, Gabriel Moreno, Ryne Nelson and Cody Bradford, took center stage and had huge moments on the road to fuller careers. 

It was a tease that has yet to pay off. Neither the Diamondbacks nor the Rangers have made the playoffs since. The Rangers are under new management, rolling with Skip Schumaker, and the D-Backs, while they still have Torey Lovullo, are in the stage where the next missed opportunity could be his last. All of these young players got to a World Series immediately and haven't been to October at all to get another taste, including people like Carroll and Jacob deGrom who are still among the best in baseball.

I think of the people who came up in 2024, right after the World Series berth, thinking they'd be back there fairly soon. Wyatt Langford was called up to start the 2024 season, as the Rangers were defending champions, and he was thought to be the piece that would make them a perennial competitor. Now...that didn't exactly happen. Injuries happened, some rough Augusts happened, and the AL West would be won by teams like the Mariners and Astros going forward. It's not like Langford hasn't tried, but he's been just as injury-cursed as a lot of his teammates. This year he missed about two months, and despite 16 homers and 38 RBIs in 95 games, it's yet another small sampling from a guy who was supposed to be running this team by now. Langford has missed at least a month of play in all three of his prior seasons, and despite a 12.6 WAR in that period, thanks to both some terrific offensive numbers and excellent range in the outfield, he's been held back from really taking over this Rangers team. The faces of the team this year have been people like Jake Burger, Ezequiel Duran and Jacob Latz, very much supplemental guys, indicating that Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, Jacob deGrom and Evan Carter have either been hurt or they've just been very okay. deGrom was looking very good against the Mariners yesterday but the bullpen sure spoiled that.

It's not even just Langford who's still 'getting there' when he should be there, Evan Carter's hitting .195 this year, and if it weren't for his defense he'd be a lot worse off. Kumar Rocket is 26 and he's still not worth the hype, he's got a 4.61 ERA, a 5-11 record and a lot of rough outings. Jack Leiter's in a similar boat, he's got a 5 ERA AND he's hurt. The idea was for deGrom, Eovaldi and Seager to slowly pass this onto the next generation, and it hasn't happened yet. We're still in this way-period. They're clearly almost good enough to chase people both for the division and the wild card spot, but they needed fuller years from the young guys.

The D-Backs might have the opposite problem. The youth is working, it's some of the veterans who are coming up short. Ketel Marte might be driven out of town on a rail after the season, which is depressing. Corbin Burnes just made his first start of the season, it lasted all of three innings and it basically gives off the idea that the really good stuff will be next year. Kelly and Gallen both essentially have lost seasons. There is more of a connection between stages of development than in Arlington arguably, but you get the sense that some front pieces are missing. Brandon Pfaadt shouldn't be in position to field the important starts, and while he's able to this year...it should be Gallen's job. 

At the very least, the D-Backs bullpen now has both Brandyn Garcia and Justin Martinez in it, and that's very helpful. Garcia's made a huge splash as a closing option this year, he has a 2.08 ERA in 51 games, with 53 Ks and 5 saves. Very dominant, very helpful, and forming a nice group with Taylor Clarke, Jonathan Loiasiga, Juan Morillo and Justin Martinez. They seem to have figured out Dennis Santana's shit as well, somehow. That makes me feel better about a potential D-Backs postseason run, which they're still grappling with San Diego for. The bullpen's better, the bench is strong, and Carroll, Perdomo and Moreno are as strong as this team needs them to be. This is also a team that Nolan Arenado leads in homers, even at 35, so that's pretty cool too. 

Of the two teams, the D-Backs definitely have a better shot, but the Rangers could have a great week and sneak into a division spot. Any outcome is possible, and neither outcome is also possible. It's just nice that there's a chance the anticlimax of that World Series could finally be amounted to. 

Coming Tomorrow- The Yankees signed him after two good seasons, hoping for stability, consistency and firepower. They have gotten this. 

Boyd Where Available

 

So, to recap: the Cubs rotation was their greatest setback for the majority of the season, especially without Justin Steele or Cade Horton. So the Cubs got David Peterson, Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman, and now it's, at the very least, better. Not enough to outweigh the Brewers, but better.

So here's where they're at. Shota Imanaga, since his rough May and June stretch ended, has basically been himself. In 60 games since July began, he's 4-4 with a 4.26 ERA. Not 2024 good but good. Matt Boyd, since he got back from the IL, is 6-3 in 14 games, with a 3.48 ERA and 55 Ks, returning somewhat to the dominance he had in 2025. David Peterson, since coming over from New York, is 4-2 with a 4.41 ERA and 54 Ks, a very average fifth man but thankfully they got enough to MAKE HIM the 5 man. Clay Holmes, in 6 games in Chicago, has a 3.51 ERA with 20 Ks, and was doing a lot better before that sixth start. And Kevin Gausman, despite a 5.31 ERA, has 4 wins and 44 Ks in 7 Cubs starts. Sort of like what Gausman was doing in Toronto this year, shakier accuracy but guys still can't always hit it. It's not pretty, and it's not perfect, but for a team that is missing two surefire young options [three if you count the still hurt Edward Cabrera], it's a lot better than before. 

The Cubs are not going to win the NL Central. They know that. Odds are they've got a date with Philly for wild card week, that's perfectly acceptable. I have been to a Phils-Cubs game already this year, and if that, and literally everything else I've seen, is any preview...the Cubs are gonna outhit the Phillies, no matter what happens. If they put Sanchez, Wheeler, Luzardo, whoever up, even if the Phillies have to play the Cubs' best arms, I still think the Cubs have the advantage because they actually show up. It's not down to two or three guys, everybody pitches in. Carson Kelly's still a .260 hitter with 54 RBIs; J.T. Realmuto is not that this year. Michael Busch, even in a down year, is gonna have 75+ RBIs; Alec Bohm's year is even less pretty. Alex Bregman had a slow start, but look at him now, hitting .260 with 24 homers and 82 RBIs, a pretty standard Bregman year if I've ever seen one.

And I don't think any Phillies pitcher right now can accurately tame Pete Crow Armstrong, who's got a 9 WAR, 41 home runs, will pass 100 RBIs any day now, 36 steals [meaning 40/40 is on the table] and some of the most insane outfield catches you'll see anywhere. PCA has been building up to this season for so long, and it's every bit as good as advertised. He really is excelling at every facet of the game, and making it look so easy. I still think it's kinda unfair that he was the Cubs's only All-Star this year, as Seiya Suzuki would have deserved it as well [again, another terrific hitting year from him], but he will be getting an MVP at this rate, so it's not a huge loss.

The Cubs' hitting is paving the way for a long postseason run, but the pitching still threatens to hold them back, even if it is a lot better. They just need the right matchup, and a team with weaknesses they can exploit in a way that makes more of a difference than the Cubs' own weaknesses being exploited. It is possible, even if it will be very difficult, especially if they face the Brewers again. But with PCA playing this well, the sky's the limit.

Coming Tonight: His team was no-hitting the Mariners for a hot second until the bullpen blew it. Nevertheless, he's still fighting for the slightest chance of a playoff spot.

Barrels Away

 

As it stands right now, the Guardians are in sole possession of the last AL Wild Card spot. They face opposition from the Blue Jays, Rangers and Orioles, but are two games ahead. If the season ended today they'd be in, and they'd have to face the White Sox, which honestly tracks. All they have to do is keep the same pace, stave off the other stragglers, and capitalize on another low-key but still strong season.

Except the Guardians, just from their last few games, seem more inclined to just make this as tense and close as possible. They're 5-5 in September already, and that includes some really rough losses to the Blue Jays, Tigers and Orioles. Yesterday against the Orioles, Foster Griffin got absolutely annihilated by the O's contact game, and the team could never fully recover. The Twins, spoilery but calming down, are next, followed by the White Sox. Already this was not going to be easy, but arguably the Guardians have made things much harder on themselves.

The Foster Griffin thing, I mean...on paper he's a nice pickup, he did well enough in Washington, but the difference between being the best pitcher on a bad team and the fifth-best pitcher on a good team is STAGGERING. In 7 Cleveland starts, he's got a 5.94 ERA, a -0.4 WAR and 30 Ks. He's technically putting in nice work, but that last start was a huge hit to his strong-enough run. It hasn't helped that Joey Cantillo has only gotten better since Griffin came over, and now has a 4 ERA. Bibee's certainly struggled, he's 5-15 with a 4.22 ERA, but his WHIP is low enough, and his numbers are impressive enough, that nobody's really sounding the alarm. And the other two are excellent, but of course they are. Parker Messick may get Cy Young votes this year with his 5.3 WAR and his 2.5 ERA, and Gavin Williams currently leads the league in strikeouts with 228, meaning he somehow managed to slide past Dylan Cease for that, and hopefully will continue to.

Still, I'll give the Guardians credit for bringing in the exact correct people to bolster the offense. Jo Adell was a big swing that's paid off, with 4 homers and 24 RBIs in 33 games. Adell has immediate fans in Cleveland, as one would expect, and the power numbers and defense have helped. Nathaniel Lowe has been a very nice, steady power corner with 5 homers and 21 RBIs. I kinda wish Manzardo were doing well enough that he'd be the guy, but Lowe's always helpful. The promotion of Angel Genao has been nice because defensively he's wonderful and he's got some contact perks. And somehow Patrick Bailey has been the answer at catcher, after so many different options since Yan Gomes. Austin Hedges is a good inoffensive backup, but Bailey is capable of being the hero, and has been as such multiple times since coming over. Bailey has 7 homers and 29 RBIs in 71 games, which isn't bad at all. In a season where Kwan and Ramirez are shakier than usual, this team needed the all hands on deck lineup mentality, and Bailey, Lowe and Adell being here cements that.

I still see this team as a playoff team, and I think they have what it takes to outweigh the opposition, but those losses have stung, as they have all year. And they need to avoid silly, exhausting moments like that weighing them down, because if not, anyone else can take advantage. The Rangers looked good today, the Orioles are looking better, it's still not a done deal. The Guardians need to remember that when they bobble a win late. 

Coming Tomorrow- His 2025 season was revelatory, a needed rise to help an aspiring competitor. His 2026 season has been less consistent but he's still helping a lot.

Frequent Shoppers

 
Right now is the Rays-Braves series, a series between two teams who are in 1st place, and would both like to remain in first place. Honestly if they're jogging in place this series to ensure they both don't really change pace at all, don't be shocked.

It's nice, because both of these teams were responsible for some of the most savvy deadline deals of the year. The Rays inquired about Liam Hicks, as the Marlins had 2 other catchers, and a deal was worked out, and suddenly the Rays got to add one of the best contact hitters in the game. Hicks has been a smashing success, hitting .313 with 4 homers and 16 RBIs. Hicks is lethal against righties, he's not a bad catcher and he's easy to fit into the lineup. The Rays already have Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Chandler Simpson and Junior Caminero in their arsenal, and Hicks has made them even stronger. I caught him homering last month, that was pretty nice. Also I love the players' weekend canada catcher's gear he had, that was really cool. The Rays have Hicks as the primary catcher and Nick Fortes as the secondary with defensive perks. That seems to be working.

Meanwhile, the Braves needed pitching help, got turned down by Jacob deGrom, and took a flyer on Tyler Mahle, who's been good but is always injury-prone. The Giants bit, and while the Mahle deal seemed odd at first, it made more sense the more games Mahle saw in Atlanta. Through 6 starts he's got a 1.24 ERA, a 1.5 WAR, 35 Ks and 2 wins. A lot of the Braves starters this year, in lieu of the young talent that was supposed to be here, have been craftsman, veterans and tricksters, and to have an actual strong, hard-throwing pitcher again is nice. It can't all be the Chris Sale show, he needed another real arm, and Mahle is that. The move was made to strengthen the rotation, and Mahle very much did, even if A.J. Smith Shawver hasn't been very good recently. 

And it's the little moves as well that have been impressive for both teams. Brent Suter's been used by the Braves in long relief and has been wonderful, with a 1.71 ERA in 21 innings. Similarly, Tyler Wells was brought on by the Rays to be a 2-inning guy, and he's been great, with a 2-0 record, a 1.69 ERA and 16 Ks in as many innings. The only real sour note has been Freddy Peralta, and even HE'S given the Rays some nice starts after his rough early period wrapped up. He's not Brewers good, but he appears to be building, and I think he's capable of some nice October starts.

Both teams are on a pretty decent trajectory at the moment. The Rays are having some trouble, and have the Yankees coming up from behind, but have Caminero sailing and the bench providing excellent support. They have to play the Astros next [after they're done making things easier for the Braves], and that should be interesting. The Braves, after splitting the Phils series, are on slightly thinner ice, and now have the Phils again once they're done with the Rays. Acuna may be riding high after those late theatrics this weekend, but Olson's struggling, Dubon's errors are adding up, and the black hole at shortstop isn't getting any fuller. Both of these teams will still make the playoffs with ample seeds, but they need to ensure that after this series, the slipping stops and the division title can be brought home. It won't be easy, but they've made enough of the rest of this season.

Coming Tonight: The Guardians have needed catching help for years. I did not think this would be the solution. 

Easy Street

Here is a list of teams the Dodgers have left to play in 2026. The Reds, the Marlins, the Giants and the Padres. That's two noncompetitive teams, one mostly noncompetitive team, and a team on the bubble that the Dodgers have no problem beating when it means something. Now, for comparison's sake, the only tough teams the Padres have to face are the Dodgers and D-Backs, while the D-Backs have the Rangers, Yankees and Padres on the docket. Curiously all three NL West teams have games against the Marlins this month.

So look, do the Dodgers have THE easiest schedule of the competitors? No. But it's up there. The object is to get to the finish line without getting embarrassed by any of these teams, and getting a decent enough seed [the 1 is still in play, despite the Brewers working like hell to prevent this]. There is just one issue, and that is the Dodgers are in danger of losing Shohei Ohtani. They just announced he won't pitch again this season. Normally they'd do this as a dramatic gambit to set up a big final act, but no, he's done, he's focusing on hitting. And he should be, because that part seems to be falling off a bit. He's down to .277, with ONLY a .902 OPS, and ONLY 30 homers. The closest thing to a human year Ohtani's had since before the breakout in Anaheim, 2021-ish. He's missed a lot of games in the past week, and he's 2 for his last 18 at-bats with no extra base hits. Something's wrong, and the team can only stay so afloat without him.

Stranger still, the saga of Kyle Tucker's overblown market continues, as the outfielder might not even be an outfield starter in the playoffs. They might honestly need him, especially if Pages is gonna miss some games, but the way he's hitting is not at all what they signed him for. He's played in virtually every game but is hitting .221 with 12 homers, 59 RBIs and a .671 OPS. His WAR is at -0.1. Genuinely, Tucker has not been this pitiful since his 'struggling for playing time' days in the late 2010s in Houston. pretty much every season since he's gone from 4 to 6 WAR, and this season is a very odd outlier, a heartbreaking one. I don't know if it's him or it's LA or what's going on, but I do recall a sharp drop-off in the second half of last season, and it may have just continued. Still, that dead weight in addition to the lack of Ohtani help has been a huge hit to this team.

And yet...they keep winning. By the strength of their schedule, and the weakness of their opponents, they just keep winning. 

It's funny, last year around this time we were all going 'well Blake Snell's a waste of money if he's not gonna be healthy', and that's not really the case at all, because when he is healthy he's still excellent. So far in 6 starts this season, Snell's 6-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 43 Ks. Vintage Snell, for sure. Glasnow's been pretty decent too since coming back, he's 4-0 with a 3 ERA in 10 starts. Emmet Sheehan just had a really nice start this past week once it became do or die time with all the rotation vacancies. Skull's looking like himself, with a 3 ERA, 48 Ks and a 1.116 WHIP in 7 starts. And then Yamamoto you never really have to worry about, he's simply one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, and he makes it look so easy. This is his third season and every one of them has been a gem. 

I still think the lineup schematic could be tricky if Ohtani isn't 100%, and some of the usual players [Hernandez, Muncy, Smith] are slowing down, but this Dodgers team is so well built that even this might only be a scratch. Obviously it's more interesting if someone else gets to win this time around, but will the Dodgers even let them? Is that even a possibility?

Coming Tomorrow- A Canadian legend already, and one of the best contact hitters in baseball at the moment.