Swallow This

 

How would you like this to be you. You toil in the majors for too long, struggle with injuries, make it over to a struggling Japanese league team, then do well enough to get an MLB contract with a decent team. Then the best player on your Japanese team comes over here to play for a last place team and then makes them a competitor, all while you're down in 4th. Peter Lambert must be going through it.

And it's not even like the 2025 Yakult Swallows were a bastion of baseball excellence or anything. The whole idea of Munetaka Murakami is a great player can make a bad team watchable, even if he doesn't always make them *good*. Aside from Lambert and Murakami, this team had some okay performances, and Domingo Santana trying his best, but like usual, they didn't compete. So to have them both over here and going in opposite directions is funny, especially considering that for a while they really weren't. The Sox didn't really conquer the AL Central until Murakami got hurt, before then he very much was lifting them. Currently Lambert is very much lifting the Astros, is their wins leader and ranks 4th in WAR. Very much the opposite of what both were after, and I guess one of them is relieved. 

Peter Lambert had instances of greatness with the Rockies, and definitely tried to make the most of pitching in Coors Field, but it just wasn't happening, and he never really broke through after his 2019 rookie season. So Japan happens, he does decently, and now he gets to play for the Astros. Lambert, in 14 games, currently has a 3.26 ERA, a 7-5 record, 74 Ks and a 1.150 WHIP, a very solid line. He is also...the best pitcher on this team right now. I remember when they brought him up I was really hesitant to embrace him, because I thought it was the Jason Alexander thing of 'we're bringing up a minor league also-ran cause he's all we have, now suddenly he's great'. That's always a 'oh screw you, Astros' thing for me, like if you can fix Peter Lambert then something's up. But no, he fixed himself in Japan, then came over here and ran the rotation. That's better honestly. 

The thing is...I don't think the intention was for all of this to be on Lambert. Hunter Brown is back now, he's carrying a little more, still pitching well, but Imai, Burrows, McCullers and Javier have all been disasters this year, and Spencer Arrighetti's beginning to fall apart as well. It's like the Nationals, where they got Foster Griffin to be the fifth man, and now he's kind of the 1st man and...I mean, there's your problem. The infrastructure should work so that someone like Jake Irvin or Josiah Gray or Mitchell Parker is actually up and doing their job and not making this the Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell show. The Astros, we just...ended up here. No disrespect to Lambert, who's making the most of a tough situation, but if he goes down again late in the year cause of the increased workload, it's on the Astros.

The Astros just got Jeremy Pena back, are in third but still under .500, and have to play the Rangers to finish out the first half. I don't think this team is competing this year, and I really hope I don't regret saying that.

Coming Tonight: He missed a few starts, came back stronger than ever and made an all-star team. That sound you hear is Zack Wheeler seething from across the country.

A Rally from the Rally-Killer

 

"I mean, I think it was kinda selfish, to be honest. Uh, everybody else was gettin' on, and.....y'know, home runs are rally-killers. Y'hit a 3-run home run or a grand slam, and it's just like....what now? Y'know? There's nobody on, nobody can drive him in. So...y'know, good for him, I guess..."

-Paul Skenes, barely stifling a smirk, on Ryan O'Hearn's 3-homer, 10-RBI game earlier this week.

For a .500 team, the Pittsburgh Pirates have way more going for them than anyone would have thought. Remember last week when only 1 all-star rep and people just sort of motioned to the team, where Brandon Lowe, Braxton Ashcraft and Bryan Reynolds were absolutely holding court? Well, Ashcraft's made it on, but the other two are arguably even more worthy. Bryan Reynolds is having a comeback season for the ages, with excellent run production and 57 RBIs already. Lowe has 21 homers, 64 RBIs and so far has been extremely healthy and reliable. And now we've got O'Hearn heating up, hitting .289 with 16 homers and 61 RBIs. O'Hearn is a messier player overall than his contemporaries, and his defense has really taken a hit since playing predominantly right field, but he's a very sturdy power bat with a lot more overall value than that, uh, higher profile DH they also got this year. This is a case of filling a team with non-overwhelming practical free agents rather than flooding the base with stars that are too big. Nick Gonzales and Spencer Horwitz and Bryan Reynolds fit right in with Lowe and O'Hearn, there's not a disconnect.

And even with the loss of Konnor Griffin, at least for a few weeks, the youth of this team is taking enough shape to not be much of an issue. Esmerlyn Valdez has only been here for 25 games, and he has 7 home runs and 18 RBIs. That's a .993 OPS, and that's gonna be a problem for other NL Central teams going forward. Keep in mind, they already know that Jhostynxon Garcia will be back at some point with a vengeance, and now they've got this guy too. Meanwhile, Jared Jones was looking pretty perfect the other day against the A's, and might finally be getting his groove back, and Ashcraft and Skenes are still very steady. It's really just Bubba Chandler whose inexperience is really showing right now, velocity notwithstanding. 

The thing you have to remember, ultimately, is that at the end of the day this is the Pirates. As good as they can be, for as long as they can be, there are still obvious flaws. The bullpen is bad enough that taking out Jared Jones after 6 perfect innings means we're not getting 3 more, almost automatically. Tyler Callihan, Billy Cook and Nick Yorke are still somehow not MLB ready. Mitch Keller really is struggling out there. There's also the issue of just not having the infrastructure and depth a lot of other teams have, which is why it's very much a cycle of scrubs trying to not be 26th in terms of usefulness. There's a way around it, and it does involve buying, but will this team be in position to do so in a couple weeks? I don't think they're sellers either, which is nice. But they're still in this grey area, where they could be good but can't completely commit because they're the Pirates.

For now, the offense can keep telling the real story, but if they want to beat the Cardinals and Cubs it's gonna need to be more than that.

Coming Tomorrow- The second most popular member of the 2025 Yakult Swallows to make the MLB this year. 

Back-Up Plans & Lack of Plans

 

Against all odds, despite their disastrous May, the Detroit Tigers have happened upon a working model for a 5-man rotation, have a competent and extremely good 6th man as a long reliever who can start again in the event of a trade, and are slowly getting Kenley Jansen within 14 saves of that legendary 500 mark, perhaps the last to reach it for a while. Now...I dunno what the hell can be made of the rest of this team, but all of that is an improvement.

The flaw of this Tigers' team is very evident now. Basing the team on two or three prospects and a horde of handy contact guys won't work if one of the prospects shit the bed and all the contact guys flicker on and off. Matt Vierling, Jahmai Jones, Zach McKinstry, Jake Rogers and Hao-Yu Lee populating this team is a fun concept if they're all doing what they're supposed to. If none of them are, and it really is just down to Riley Greene, Kevin McGonigle and Dillon Dingler, then what the hell was the point. You draft Torkelson high, you draft McGonigle high, you draft Max Clark high, and if it all goes to plan then that's your team. Well, Torkelson's had one good year and now is back to pissing people off. He's hitting .215 with some occasional power numbers and no real outside value aside from that. Clark is still, infuriatingly so, in the minors, and it hurts that much more when McGonigle, who was drafted lower in that same draft, is already a successful MLB player. Greene has been great but he still strikes out way too much. 

The guys they try to build the team around don't do what they're supposed to, and then the rest of the year becomes 'let's try this'. If you keep guessing wrong that many times, they're not the problem. It's the same with the contracts. You spend all that money on Javier Baez to get 1 good season and an immediate injury. Framber Valdez takes a pay cut to join the team, it's his most mediocre season yet. Meanwhile, Skubal's probably off to a team that will pay him TO play well, not FOR playing well. 

The Tigers are lucky of how many guys that weren't supposed to be much have become heroes. Dingler's an excellent hitting catcher, has 19 homers and 60 RBIs, and justly made an all-star team. Troy Melton was a relief guy they gave a try to this year, and he's been lights out in 8 starts, with a 5-1 record and a 1.82 ERA. And Keider Montero's flexibility has kept this team alive this year, being durable and dominant both as a starter and as a long reliever. Montero has a 0.986 WHIP in 94 innings, and will no doubt get more opportunities to start once Skubal is dealt. IF HE'S...I mean, is there any doubt at this point? He wants out, they're not gonna pay him, it's happening.

I wish this Tigers team had a better outcome ahead of them, but the dream might be over, especially if the guys they're really relying on aren't gonna perform while the guys with small windows of success [Skubal, Mize, Melton, Dingler] give their absolute all. Maybe I'm wrong. But it's not looking good.

Coming Tonight: 4-for-5 with 10 RBIs. And they said he'd be a liability signing.

Rising in the East

 

So, once again. To anyone who thought the Nationals would be the surprise breakout team in the NL East, you may be entitled to financial compensation.

The Miami Marlins are becoming something of an under-the-radar monolith, especially in the month. They were 26-34 leaving May, and they are now 25-8. Meaning they've almost doubled their entire prior win total in the last month and a half, and have only lost 8 games, 2 of which coming at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies...who they are currently tied with for second place, and three games behind the Braves. It's a wild development, but...it's one you wouldn't be called insane for seeing coming.

Let's remind ourselves, that the Washington Nationals, in spite of their uproarious offense, great base running and great new-school ideas...don't have much of a rotation. It's Foster Griffin and look out. Littell was on a decent pace but now he's getting lit up all the time. The Marlins had depth even before they became good. Max Meyer, Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara were all there, dormant, even before they became the keys to this rotation's success. Sandy had a rough start, Perez had a rough start...look at 'em now. Perez now leads the team in WHIP with 1.105, and has 89 Ks and a 3.84 ERA. Meyer is still looking very sharp, with a 9-1 record, a 2.58 ERA and 116 Ks. And even if this isn't peak Cy Young era Sandy, the guy still looks good, leads the league in IP with 123 and has a 10-4 record with 92 Ks. The back half is a little shakier, it's Tyler Phillips and a pen game, but it's working. Way better than the Nats'.

And with the amount of offensive depth the Marlins came into this season with, a moment like this where almost every option is a good one is pretty satisfying. Kyle Stowers was hurt for a bit, then cold for a month. And NOW he's taking off again, with 12 homers and 41 RBIs, plus an .801 OPS, making up for lost time. Stowers is very much the same kind of power bat that blew up last year, and while his sustainability is still in question, he's still crucial to the team's current success. Owen Caissie just got injured, so Stowers, who'd been filling in at 1st, will get more OF time. But even still bench OF options Griffin Conine and Esteury Ruiz are still pretty good. Having to choose between Heriberto Hernandez and Griffin Conine is still a pretty nice choice. It also helps that Marsee seems to be heating up a little, and that Liam Hicks has no issue filling in at 1st while Joe Mack continues his excellent campaign behind the plate. Also very cool that Javier Sanoja seems to have won the race for third by default, and is getting time there everyday. 

The core of this team being Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards and Kyle Stowers is something that I never thought would work, but they're winning games and outhitting great teams [THE MARINERS]. I hope it keeps going, and I hope they can shock some people further down the stretch. 

Coming Tomorrow- A Tigers pitcher that has stayed healthy all season and probably won't be leaving anytime soon. What a concept, right?

Trey Magnifique

 

First of all. The question on everyone's minds. HOW HAS DYLAN CEASE NEVER MADE AN ALL-STAR GAME BEFORE THIS?? He was good enough in 2022. He was good enough in 2024. He's hit 200 strikeouts in every season since the pandemic! I understand this has been a terrific season from him thus far but we didn't need to wait til now to get him to the ASG. At the same time, the Jays paid a bit too much for him, but so far he's been worth every penny. Phenomenal. Yes, he missed a few starts, but the quality wasn't sacrificed. Look at how far he went yesterday against the Giants. Incredible.

Okay. Onto our regularly scheduled Jays post. The Blue Jays massive really turned out at the ballot box earlier this month....I assume because Canadians are used to elections actually accomplishing something. People like Kazuma Okamoto, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Andres Gimenez and Jesus Sanchez made the final 2 for voting, which begs the question...what did they have against Nathan Lukes? Ernie Clement was the one the rest of the country agreed with, as he won the top voting share and waltzed to the first team. He deserves it. I also think Okamoto maaaaybe deserved it the way he's been playing recently. But no, everybody else missed out. A little 'serves them right', but generally the reserves pick more from the also-rans than this. And remember, John Schneider is MANAGING THIS TEAM. He could have done what Joe Torre did in like 2002 and elect everybody to the team anyway, but he decided, no, a lot of them don't really deserve it, let's just get the best guys. And yeah, that works too. 

It points to the fact that this Jays team may not be as great as the fans want it to be. The 2025 team, as fun as it was, was extremely flukey, similar to the 2015-2016 runs. It hinged on finding momentum at the exact right time and not letting go. The Jays this year haven't really found much momentum at all, because they don't have the team to hang onto it. Vladdie's not at 100% this year, the team has a .686 OPS cumulatively, there's an injury-plagued gaping hole in left that Jonatan Clase is now trying to fill, and only one guy has over 10 homers or 40 RBIs...that being the newcomer Okamoto. This isn't a particularly well-hitting team, which is such a shame after last year, the land of the .300 hitters and all. Aside from Clement and Okamoto, what's really going on here at all? Even Lukes and Varsho are slumping. 

Which is making this a waste of a similarly well-pitched year, after 2025. Cease and Gausman are very strong at the front, and Trey Yesavage is settling into a pretty breezy full season campaign, with a 3.13 ERA, 68 Ks and a 1.077 WHIP. Yesavage was very quickly-lauded in Toronto last year, and for a reason; he's young, he's likable, he's not flashy, and he gets the job done. His work in the postseason may have been the best pitching stats from a Toronto pitcher in over 30 years. I hope the Jays can reap the benefits of Yesavage for a while. I do, alternatively, worry about Shane Bieber, as he's looked pretty cooked in 3 starts back. I'd hate to think he was down for the count, especially after how good HE was last postseason. Without Berrios or Bowden Francis, the back half's failings are even more noticeable. But at least Louis Varland also exists, that helps.

I don't know what place there even is for the Jays this year, or what role they can fill. They could truly catch fire in the next month or so, but I don't know if that's enough in a sure-to-be contentious AL wild card picture. 

Coming Tonight: Hurt for a while, cold for a while...back to hitting dingers like he never left. 

A Decade Indoors

 

Considering that I always saw him as the young, fresh face that got traded for Jean Segura, it's wild to me that Ketel Marte's been in the league for a decade, and is now in his tenth season in Phoenix. This D-Backs team is deceptively young, it's wild that they have people who've been here over 5 years, or over 10 years, and are still good.

Marte's actually put together a pretty damn good career for himself. A cumulative 37.8 WAR, a career .822 OPS, 3 80+ RBI seasons, a power bat that shows up every so often and a .280 average. I don't think he's a future Hall of Famer or anything, but he is one of the most consistent players in his league, and a very steady guy to have around. The closest thing to a down period Marte's had was an injury-plagued 2021 followed by a still-not-100% 2022. But from 2023 on he's routinely been one of the best all-around players in the game, keeping the D-Backs in the conversation and meshing well with new stars like Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo. He's the guy you want to stick around, even if he's less in the category of 'elite' and more in the category of 'underratedly good'. 

Right now Marte is hitting .267 with an .810 OPS, 17 homers and 54 RBIs. For his standards, it's good if imperfect. It took a little longer for Marte's season to get going than usual, and while he does lead the team in homers and RBIs, it's a less all-around performance than usual. Compared to Carroll, who's good at everything right now, and is tripling all over the place. Marte is 32, and he's got 4 years left on the contract after this one, and he's very much still in his prime, but the time has come for the new breed to take over, and Carroll, Perdomo and Moreno are very much that.

What's troubling, though, is the lack of a next step after them. So far this season, the D-Backs have called up Jose Fernandez, Ryan Waldschmidt, LuJames Groover, Tommy Troy and Adrian Del Castillo....and none of them have worked. The same schtick every time, too. 'LOOK AT THIS GUY, HE'S ABOUT TO BE SO GOOD, GET READY', he hits .182 in 2 weeks, back to the minors, then the next one. Waldschmidt and Fernandez have promise, of the bunch, but it wasn't sustainable. If a 34-year-old Ildemaro Vargas is a better 1B bat than you, you're not ready yet. The rotation youth is similar. They tried Mitch Bratt, it didn't work. They are trying Jose Cabrera, he's been decent in three starts but not revolutionary. Kelly and Gallen are tired, Pfaadt might not be the answer, and it can't just be down to Rodriguez and Burnes next year. 

As good as this core can be, I'm still very worried about long term solutions, because none have shown up this year. And remember, this is a team with Druw Jones in its farm system. Remember him? He's still in double-A, playing very okay. A Rockies-esque 'stop and wait for better prospects' strategy might have to be in order very soon.

Coming Tomorrow: I reckon Canada's kinda sad their World Cup adventure ended so early, but at least they've got this guy to look forward to for a while. 

Gelof My Cloud

 

I said going into this season that if Zack Gelof went about 2026 the same way he went about the last few seasons [hitting .210 and getting hurt], it'd be a one way ticket to Colorado. So he must have heard me, cause he used an injury to Max Muncy to become an everyday third baseman and is hitting incredibly well, with an .833 OPS, a .282 average, 11 homers and 29 RBIs. After so many years of being the 'and the rest' portion of the young A's core, Gelof finally has something to say. Now...preferably it'd be happening for a non-4th place A's team, but they can get there.

I knew they wouldn't be a 1st place team forever, and they were really just one rough stretch away from where they usually are, and sure enough that's the case. They had a tricky end of the month schedule, they didn't find an upper hand barring more Kurtz homers, and now they're 41-49, trying to get back above the Astros. 

The good news is that, as this was already the fullest vision of this A's team going into the season, it's gotten even fuller as we've gone on. Here's what the A's train has gained as we've embarked on another campaign: Henry Bolte, a working centerfield bat with great defense, Gelof becoming an everyday infielder, J.T. Ginn reaching ace status, Gage Jump finding his footing in the bigs [despite a rough go of things last night against the Marlins], Jonah Heim as a kickass backup catcher, and the rise of Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, from New Brunswick, who's looking to take over for Jeff McNeil going forward, and is hitting enough to potentially unseat McNeil soon. We already established the baseline pieces of this team [Kurtz, Wilson, Butler, Rooker, Soderstrom, Langeliers], but now we're filling things out and adding some pitching mainstays, which is very helpful.

Now...of course this is the exact moment that some of the baseline pieces start going down. Brent Rooker's out for the season, which has to smart. Tyler Soderstrom's out for a few more weeks, despite a really nice June. Wilson's once again hurt, meaning Muncy's gotta cover short. Denzel Clarke is still out, hence Bolte. It's not all insurmountable, there's enough guys like Carlos Cortes, Colby Thomas and Alika Williams who can cover those positions while not just being replacement-level. But seeing the rest of this season without Rooker is pretty tough. It's also not helping that Lawrence Butler still hasn't found his groove, he's hitting .202 with only 5 homers. Granted, his whole thing is catching fire after the all-star break, but is that sustainable??

The back half of the rotation still worries me, as does the 3.75 ERA the bullpen's been sporting. But this is a better A's team than we've seen, and there's still room to be potentially good this year, even if they're not able, with the pitching, to truly go deep yet. Getting Zack Gelof in place is a very big thing though, and won't go unnoticed.

Coming Tonight: Extremely weird that this guy's stayed in one place for 10 years, and is still pretty elite.