Unstoppable Force, Movable Object

 

To finish off June, the San Diego Padres lost 8 consecutive games. And for a team with next to no pitching and an alarming lack of depth, that was considered par for the course I suppose. Around this time the Miami Marlins were taking off, with a 20-6 record in June. Two teams going two very separate directions. So how do you explain the results of this Padres-Marlins series, where the Padres took all three, meaning the Marlins have now lost 12 straight, despite winning six straight beforehand? What the hell went wrong? The Marlins haven't lost anybody. The Padres haven't gained anybody. Now the Padres might be more of a wild card threat than the Marlins, despite them both having the same record.

Manny Machado is the guy who most represents the strangeness of this Padres season. They're not good, but they were given the belief to be at least decent. Hasn't gone 100% according to plan. Much like Manny Machado's season. This has been the first real down season the man has had since his early days in Baltimore, like his 2014 season where he, at 21, only hit .278 with 12 homers and 32 RBIs in a shortened season. Or his 2017, where, in between star-making campaigns, he hit .259 with 33 homers and 95 RBIs, most accomplished in a second half struggling to make up for a down first. Machado, in the midst of a Hall of Fame career that will no doubt cross the 400 home run mark this year and possibly the 500 mark eventually, is hitting .210 with 23 homers and 36 RBIs, with a 0.8 WAR owing to a high strikeout percentage, poor defense and a lack of real pull in the direction of the team. But he was still able to hit a crucial home run off of Lake Bachar last night, in addition to Jackson Merrill, who's also suddenly hitting despite a subpar overall campaign.

The Padres will likely sell at the deadline...or will they? We thought the Marlins would be buying, but now that they're back under .500, who knows? The Padres have Michael King, Ty France and Mason Miller to deal, and probably still will even if they're better than they were. But now there's been this swell, they're chasing the Diamondbacks who are ducking again, and now they're playing two much worse NL West teams, and...they could buy after all? Is there a way they could even out while still dealing Miller and France? Who knows. The Tigers still chased glory a couple years ago after dealing Jack Flaherty. 

The Marlins...I just don't understand it. Nothing's changed. They still have the same offensive onslaught since before the losing streak began. Still Stowers, Hicks, Hernandez...they've just all gone cold. Stowers is still hitting, but only .234, despite the 13 homers and 45 RBIs. Hicks is cold after a terrific start, now down to .277. Marsee's stopped hitting, Joe Mack's cooled down, it's the whole team basically. It's not that the team's suddenly bad, it's that they all picked the same time to go cold. The Yankees do this all the time, they just did this a month ago. Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara are still viable answers in the rotation, with 3.5 to 4 ERAs and high strikeout totals. The bullpen's hit a bit of a snag, but since John King is back that could be coming to an end. Otto Lopez still leads the league in batting average with .328, and he might be the only guy in this lineup who hasn't really slowed down. But alas, even against the Padres, they just couldn't find the will.

They honestly should still buy. The core still is successful, this month has just sucked for them. I think one more rotation arm would do it, possibly another contact bat or an actual 1st baseman [France?], and getting Max Meyer back eventually would possibly be helpful as well. I also think that potentially Deyvison De Los Santos could be a very helpful midyear callup, but I've been saying that for like 3 years at this point so what do I know? 

This should be a turning point for both teams. The Marlins should respond to this Padres series with the intensity to ensure it'll never happen again. The Padres should respond to this Marlins series with the mentality that'll either confirm that they're a seller or add fuel to the fire that a wild card run is still in the cards. We'll see what actually comes from it though.

Coming Tonight: The Orioles just gave him a lot of money to stick around, so that...knocks out ONE potential deadline target I guess..

Love Him or Hader

 

Remember when Josh Hader to Houston was supposed to be the kingmaker move? The kind of move that would ensure the Astros would stay in the hunt perpetually going forward despite the aging core and the loss of more and more key players? And instead, Hader might actually be one of the few things that have stayed consistent about the Astros since Joe Espada took over? 

The Astros are in second last now. I know people don't like when I do this, but it's very much by default. The A's have completely fallen apart, the Mariners refused to win more than one game in a crucial division series, the Rangers are in first by a thread but just lost Josh Jung. The Astros are under .500, still not entirely a threat, just lost Spencer Arrighetti and expect Peter Lambert and a rehabbing Hunter Brown to do all the work. This is a meritless second place. They won 5 straight and then Munetaka Murakami absolutely embarrassed them, and when the White Sox earn a win more than you, you're fooling a lot of people, including yourself. 

It's not like this is a completely bad team, because Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena represent the absolute best this lineup has to offer. This lineup was a lot better when you actually had George Springer, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Yuli Gurriel draped around them, but Alvarez is headed for MVP votes and Pena had a 2-homer day today, representing 2 of the 3 runs the Astros were able to score. Pena's total is now 11 homers and 30 RBIs in 58 games, very much doing a lot in a small amount of time. Same with Josh Hader, who was activated midyear, he's got 12 saves and a 1.35 ERA in 22 appearances, this is vintage Hader with no real troubles. Definitely a huge addition to a really rough bullpen with a broken Bryan Abreu and a lot of mostly okay performances.

'Broken' is a good word for a lot of these guys. Lance McCullers just got DFA'd by the Brewers because he didn't really have anything left. Cristian Javier has a 9.37 ERA and is struggling mightily. Ronel Blanco's gotten absolutely annihilated in both his starts back. Tatsuya Imai still hasn't fully figured out MLB pitching. Even Mike Burrows somehow couldn't handle pitching for a better team. Even if they keep worming their way up the standings, the lack of sturdy pitching will do the Astros in. Everyone is so tired. So exhausted. EVEN FRAMBER VALDEZ IS FATIGUED OVER IN DETROIT.

The Astros could still persist in the top of the AL West standings, and they may even make a run...but again, it's the case of an Astros team that refuses to realize that they are not capable of meeting the moment. This is not the team, and this is not the year. 

Coming Tomorrow- A future Hall of Famer having a very human season for the first time since his early 20s. 

Practical Magic

 The Pirates currently lead the league in inspired nicknames. They already have Jhostynxon "The Password" Garcia, and the beloved Brandon "Bamm-Bamm" Lowe. Now here comes a new power hitter named Esmerlyn Valdez, and he goes by the too-perfect nickname of 'The Magician'. Esmerlyn, the Magician. These things write themselves.

Anyway, Valdez has been the spark of this latest Pirates upswing, as his power hitting has been a welcome new addition to a lineup that, one might argue, didn't need the power boost considering Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn, Bryan Reynolds and Spencer Horwitz are here. But Valdez is young, confident, and already has 13 homers and 34 RBIs in 35 games, plus a crazy 1.063 OPS. This kid is already something, and has turned the Pirates into a potential wild card threat again. They're ahead of the Cardinals in the standings? Remember when we all thought the Cardinals were gonna be something, then we remembered they had no starting pitching? The Pirates have starting pitching, a working power core, AND rookies like Konnor Griffin and Esmerlyn Valdez making things even better.

The rotation is also pretty impressive all the way through, for the first time in a while. It's not just Skenes! Skenes is extremely helpful, but Braxton Ashcraft's 9-4 with a 3.95 ERA, Jared Jones is looking like his old self after 10 games with a 3.72 ERA, and both Mitch Keller and Bubba Chandler are at least eating innings and having some good starts in the midst of mostly 4ish ERA seasons. Whatever, Carmen Mlodzinski is there if things go haywire, even if he's still not wild about being a long man. Still a great situation. 5 strong choices, a sixth if things go wrong, and Connor Wietgrefe if things go really wrong. Better than the usual strategy of Paul Skenes and a bunch of guys who will be traded. 

The Pirates are on the verge of something, but this Cubs series is testing them. The bullpen still isn't great, and sending Dennis Santana out on a rail is only so much help. I really hope the Pirates can shop around for relief pieces at the deadline. They'd be a sneaky landing place for some of the more efficient relief pieces on the board, and it could help them stay in the race rather than die off immediately. I know they made some deals a couple years ago at the deadline and it didn't do them any good, but it's better than not trying, and the Pirates have gotten a lot out of not trying. It's given them a nice playoff drought that they're trying to end. And hopefully this is the team that can do it.

Coming Tonight: Still one of the best closers in baseball, in case anybody cares. 

Destination Very Much Known

 

Ryan Jeffers has a pretty sturdy week ahead of him. After this series against the A's he plays a few games against the Royals, and then he and the rest of the Twins head to Seattle, and then at some point during that series he'll be heading to New York to join the Yankees because he's going to be traded to the Yankees. Everyone knows Ryan Jeffers is about to be traded to the Yankees. The fact that they're waiting for the formality of the trade deadline is honestly just proof that the deadline season is kind of a farce at this point. If you want to make a move, make a move, don't wait til the wire.

So Ryan Jeffers having to be a Minnesota Twin this week when everyone knows that A.) the Yankees want him and B.) they have more to offer the Twins than anyone else looking for a primary catcher, which...who even is right now anyway [the Sox??]. But they're waiting til they can get the TV coverage for making the deal so they have to pad this out. We all know they're gonna offer the Twins some prospect cornucopia, probably some double-A pitchers, and the Twins are gonna ask for Spencer Jones, the Yankees are gonna say no, and the Twins are gonna go through with the deal anyway. Everyone knows how this goes. But we've gotta have Jeffers ride out the half, I guess.

Jeffers has been pretty good this year, and would likely be an upgrade over Austin Wells if dealt to the Yankees. He's hitting .283 with a .922 OPS, has 9 homers and 35 RBIs in 41 games, and has been one of the highlights of a better-than-expected Twins lineup. I don't think taking Jeffers out of this lineup will wound the team too much, Victor Caratini can start and Alex Jackson can be backup. Perhaps THE answer is on the way. And plus, as long as Josh Bell, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall and Brooks Lee stay in the lineup, they should be fine. I don't know if all of them will. The Twins could be shopping anything from just Jeffers to the whole team, including Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton. But we won't know just how much they're willing to deal til far too late. They really shouldn't trade Buxton, but y'know...they don't know what they're doing. 

So, this week the farce will just continue. Jeffers will be somewhat helpful as the Twins do okay work skirting the middle of the division while the Royals and Tigers tank for prospects knowing full well they'll be competitive again next year. And then they'll deal him, and probably other people, and then settle around fourth and not be heard from again til I get to Fort Myers next March, where everyone will be about how the rebuild starts now and it's part of the plan.

I'm not a Twins fan, but if I was I'd be making sure I had something in my life that provided joy as well. 

Coming Tomorrow- Right when you thought the Pirates still weren't for real, like magic a new power hitter appeared to jam them back into the playoff race. 

Worth the Toll Fare?

 
Yanks-Phils. The series where once a year I can go 'whoever wins, I can be happy'. The Yanks had a rough June but seem to be good again. The Phils are fully in Donnie Baseball era and are still riding the midyear momentum despite a slight slowdown. Now they can just beat each other up in peace and hopefully continue to rise upward.

Last night's game was a win for the boys in navy, and they did it on one single Paul Goldschmidt home run, off Jesus Luzardo. I'm not sure if it's concerning that the only guy in the lineup that scored any runs was Paul Goldschmidt, who is 38, or comforting that the Yanks' starter not only held the Phils down but worked a shutout. Obviously these guys are trying to jumpstart their lineup and get it to where there aren't as many so-called automatic outs, and the deadline deals will likely help, but they need their lineup to feel like a deep well of possibilities. It's helping that Jazz Chisholm seems to be on the way up again, he's got 16 homers and 43 RBIs, with 27 steals. It's still a possibility that he repeats as a 30-30 guy, though...the initial prediction of 50/50 might be a-ways off. Still love what he brings to the team, even if he's a little full of himself. Dominguez and Volpe are on their way, and Dominguez already has 5 homers and 12 RBIs. But the issue is that Judge and Stanton are both out, McMahon and Wells have been embarrassingly limited, and the lineup still feels inconsistent. Will an Arraez or a Jeffers help this? Who knows.

But their strengths are still the same. Cody Bellinger is an excellent contact hitter and made a game-saving catch last night in left. Cam Schlittler is still a Cy Young candidate with so many strengths, and now Cole and Fried are back and healthy, ensuring the pitching is as strong as it was meant to be [and don't count Warren or Weathers out entirely either]. Brent Headrick has been untouchable as a setup man, and David Bednar finally feels like The Renegade again. They're still a formidable team with a halfway decent chance of lapping the Rays very soon, and they could go on a nice run even if the 'run it back' strategy has deterred many pundits from thinking there'll be palpable success.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are resting on the fundamentals. The top 3 guys in the rotation, Kyle Schwarber, and the CBP atmosphere. And they're hoping that's enough. Right now it is. For a lot of this season it has been that simple. Maybe I'm underselling it- Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, Jhoan Duran and occasionally Alec Bohm have been very helpful. But it really comes down to Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo being on top of their games. Luzardo, despite giving up the fatal homer last night, has been lights-out the last two months, and has a 3.30 ERA in 20 starts. Sanchez has been a little shakier this month but still has a 2.71 ERA, a league-leading 12 wins and 151 Ks. Wheeler, despite the missed month, is otherworldly right now, 10-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 117 Ks in 16 appearances. If the sportswriters didn't have a bias against him for some reason, I think that should result in Cy Young votes, but...y'know, I don't think he'll be the shiniest object for some reason. 

There's still a deep pit in the lineup that's trying to be exhumed. Turner, Stott and Crawford just aren't cutting it right now. Realmuto is better but not peak J.T. The Derek Hill addition has helped more than anyone has thought, he's hitting .290 with 4 homers and 9 RBIs, and I'm of the opinion that, even if the Phils bring on some new guys, Hill should keep starting. Dude deserves it. There's also the usual problems of a lack of rotation depth and a mess in the bullpen. We will no doubt try to pull bullpen upgrades but I still think it's just cursed. Duran is the outlier. We've brought in so many sure bets and they've all keeled over. This McFarlane kid better be something different. The idea is the Phils will try and pull in a big ticket rotation guy, and that could mean anything from Skubal to Wacha to Peralta to 'well, here's Tomoyuki Sugano, have fun'. 

I want both of these teams to go deep. They both technically could, but still have some issues to deal with. We'll see how it pans out ultimately, but at the very least we're in an era where both my favorite teams are competitive and fun, and that's always better for me.

Coming Tonight: Ironically a guy who might be headed to New York if you believe the rumors. 

Its Barest Essentials

 

The 3D chess it took for the Diamondbacks to trade Merrill Kelly, then bring him back alongside the two pitching prospects they got for him, buy Nolan Arenado for a low price to ensure that St. Louis was the problem, sign Eduardo Rodriguez knowing he won't be great immediately but he will be great eventually, and pick up Jonathan Loiasiga at the exact time he figures out how to stay healthy. After years of just being too late, or too early, or not enough...have the Arizona Diamondbacks somehow figured out how to make the playoffs again?

I mean, nobody said it couldn't be done, but after the 2024 and 2025 playoff attempts fell short, it was looking like the 2023 run was extremely flukey. Not that the pieces from that team didn't remain, and weren't still active, but the atrophy was clear. Moreno struggled to stay healthy, Gallen and Kelly's full seasons eventually took their toll, the bullpen got old, Brandon Pfaadt didn't develop laterally, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. didn't fully showcase the 2023 numbers after the fact. But this season, there's been enough spark to convince people there's something here. Carroll, Perdomo and Marte never really worried anyone, but Gabriel Moreno's having another terrific season, hitting .309 with 7 homers and 36 RBIs in 79 games. I think we all blinked and he was hitting .300, thanks to some great work the last couple months. Carroll has 15 homers and 49 RBIs, and still has the speed to leg out all those triples. Ryan Waldschmidt seems to be sinking in as an everyday OF option, and Jorge Barrosa seems to be the answer in center for now. It's clear they're still a few pieces away from truly chasing the competition, but the formula's working. Before the break they swept the Dodgers, something the Padres can never do when given the opportunity. Maybe there's something here.

If so, this month may not even be fully indicative of the team's output, as the rotation's pretty banged up at the moment. In a week or so they'll get Mike Soroka back, and sometime later Gallen and Burnes will return. But even now, Rodriguez is driving the ghost shift, and both Kohl Drake and Mitch Bratt have been effective filling in for the usual guys. Maybe they'll be cannon fodder if the D-Backs want a more permanent answer for the stretch run, but it's nice they're keeping things moving. But even with a depleted rotation, the team's hitting, the bullpen's strong, there's more youth mobility than there was before, and there's even room for the ill-fated Max Kepler Redemption Campaign.

It's way too soon to tell if the D-Backs' current holding of the wild card spot will stand for the rest of the season. The Cardinals also want it, the Padres also want it, the Marlins want it a little and I believe the Padres might also have wanted it at some point. It's never a simple wild card race for the D-Backs, and they'll need to outlast their previous incarnations and power through despite oncoming intimidation. If this team can keep a surge lasting this long, it can happen. I just still can't tell if they're that team anymore.

Coming Tomorrow- The single flashiest player in baseball, and in the perfect city for him.

It's Yours. Go Take It.

 

I think the best word to describe the Mariners this year would be 'reluctant'. So far this year, the AL West has been led by the Athletics, who then punted and fell apart last month, then the Rangers, who are likely going to relinquish it again soon, all while the Mariners flirt with greatness while being the only great team in the division. Like you kinda want to let them in on it, right? Like, these other guys are gonna keep doing this, you have to try and stay ahead of them or this whole thing is gonna be for nothing. 

The Mariners, just like in 2024, have a rotation full of people genuinely good at what they're doing, and not in danger of going anywhere. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock and Bryan Woo are all working on terrific seasons, and not in a worrying way. Longevity is the name of the game with all these guys, especially Gilbert, Kirby and Woo. Gilbert's been here since 2021, he's still extremely good and makes all his starts, and this season he's got a 3.38 ERA and 129 Ks in 20 starts. Bryce Miller's only made 10 starts so far and he has a 2.27 ERA, with 71 Ks and a 2.0 WAR. Miller was doing this sort of lights-out work in last year's playoffs, and is gearing up for a similar run if the Mariners have it in them this year.

And...do they?? No one on this team has more than 15 homers. No one on this team has more than 48 RBIs. No one on this team is hitting over .281. Josh Naylor and Cal Raleigh were supposed to carry this team and are doing very okay, and Cole Young and Randy Arozarena are essentially doing all the work. Julio Rodriguez has 15 homers and 43 RBIs, and we've all seen him do better. He just picks the weirdest times to heat up honestly. Same with Luke Raley, who was wonderful in mid-May and has completely evaporated any sense of forward momentum. It's not that this team isn't hitting; many of them are. The issue is that the unified intimidation factor from last year, where any of Rodriguez or Arozarena or Naylor or Raley or Canzone can beat your ass, seems to be gone. Maybe Cole Young will drive in a run and get 3 hits but nobody's an everyday hero this year. They just pick their moments. Also Cole Emerson is still ramping up to the numbers the prospectors assumed he'd be at by now. We can't have another Jarred Kelenic on our hands.

The Mariners have a habit of lining everything up in August, and that'll need to happen this time. Last time they were a little better than they are now, and more of a position to buy. Right now they're a hare under .500 and need to win over the Rangers to retake the division. They had two low-level teams this week and went 3-3. If this series goes similarly they may need the help even more than they initially did. Hopefully whatever happens makes them into a better competitor, because if it's this current incarnation, I don't think the run's lasting as long as last year's.

Coming Tonight: Former World Series catcher having, at last, a strong and healthy year once again.