It Doesn't Have to be Pretty

 

The Padres are on an ungodly streak right now chasing the Dodgers. I know I've said this before recently. The Padres always find a way to get good, conveniently around the time the Dodgers start losing games, and then they play each other and nothing happens and the Dodgers still win the division. And that is conveniently how things went the last time the Padres played the Dodgers. Pure momentum killer, Dodgers took 3 games, business as usual. Well...right now the Padres are 8 games behind the Dodgers, which in this run it like being 2 games behind them. The Dodgers have Ohtani cold, a bunch of people hurt, Skubal middling and have lost some key series. The Padres are 18-9 since the all-star break, have their stars finally hitting, and despite so many messy details, are winning games and looking dominant.

To be honest, this is the perfect team for Mason Miller, because the games are gonna be close due to the flickering run support and the eaten-away rotation. They brought in Robbie Ray and Casey Mize to aid the rotation, both have given up far too many runs, especially Mize. Michael King is the only Padres starter with a WAR over 1. Meaning Walker Buehler and Randy Vazquez, despite flirting with dominance, have not been able to keep this team stable. Adrian Morejon has more wins than anyone in the rotation because he seems to be on the mound when the lead changes more than any of the starters, because typically the starters are the reason for the negative lead changes. Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez, Yuki Matsui, and of course Mason Miller, have provided an excellent cushion even if the rotation has sputtered.

And though Fernando Tatis, Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado all had awful starts, they've more than made up for it. It took Tatis 2 months to hit a homer, and now he's got 13 with 56 RBIs and 28 steals, plus a .280 average. A 30/30 year still seems like a long shot, but it's still a decent year for Tatis. Machado is still clearly past his peak, but he's got 23 homers and 70 RBIs, which is certainly a productive power year. And Merrill went from a nothing year to one of the most important ones in San Diego, as his 19 homers and 63 RBIs have been a boost in the last few months. He's still only 23, but the more he sticks around, the closer he's getting to those peak numbers everyone's been so excited about. 

All that and some surprisingly potent bench numbers from two guys named Luis have been fueling the Padres to a clear 2nd place and a definite spot in the postseason conversation. The D-Backs want it just as bad as they do, and have a much better rotation, but they also just lost Ketel Marte. It may be a true foot race between the two teams with only 1 wild card spot to spare, and it's gonna be very close. 

Coming Tomorrow- Last year, on a come up, he was wild with occasional flashes of greatness. This year he's been pretty great all-around.

Kirb Your Enthusiasm

 

The end of the regular season, when I do the 'end of year losing team superlatives', I always have one that's 'most depressing team to talk about every two weeks', and it's usually a really rough last place team or a boring team where I'm saying the same things every time. I would not have predicted at the beginning of this season that the Mariners would be a heavy contender for that superlative this year. But I saw that I needed to write a post about them and I just got this feeling of annoyance, like I'd be trying harder than usual. And like...it's the Mariners! They're supposed to be fun! They're a team I like. THEY WERE JUST IN AN ALCS. And yet...this team is depressing the shit out of me, because if they got their act together they'd be a first place team and it's just not happening. It's like they're refusing to go for it. They have everything in their corner, everything in place, every reinforcement, and they just cannot be arsed. It is infuriating. The Mariners are the Chuck Schumer 'sternly worded letter' of baseball. In lieu of any positive effort with everything on their side, they're just giving up. This is not the AL year to give up. This year you're lucky if you're 3 games above .500. So many teams are just okay that it's maddening that the Mariners can't just make the leap.

It leads me to believe that the 2025 Mariners were as good as they were because of Cal Raleigh. He had the season of the gods last year and tied the entire team together. He struggled early, was hurt, and is still not back at 100%, and he's hitting .159 with 12 homers and 43 RBIs, a genuinely pathetic year from a guy who was on top of the world a year ago. The loss of that presence in this lineup has brought things down several decibels. Josh Naylor is only now getting going, he's finally getting his average above .260 and has 10 homers and 43 RBIs. Brendan Donovan's finally healthy again and trying to salvage a mostly lost season. Arozarena, Young and Rodriguez are having good years but not over the top amazing. Colt Emerson did not work in the majors, so they're going with the next man up, Brock Rodden, hoping he somehow does better than...top prospect Cole Emerson. Even Taylor Ward, who was traded for an outfield advantage, hasn't done a damned thing in Mariners colors yet.

And, like in 2024, it's wasting a wonderful year from the rotation. Gilbert, Miller, Kirby, Emerson and Woo are all having very nice, consistent years and the worry is that when the rest of the team is good next year, they'll all be in varying stages of health because they wasted their A-material on this season. George Kirby has a 3.68 ERA, an 8-9 record, and too many great starts for a year as squandered as this one. Logan Gilbert had another ace-level year, with 152 Ks, a 3.28 ERA and a 3.2 WAR, but he'll be 30 next year, and soon the clock will start ticking. These are some great pitchers, but are their peak years being wasted? And what happens when it's time for Kade Anderson to come up? Who gets sacrificed? 

It's just depressing. This could have been a great team. Arguably it still could be, they could catch fire, the Rangers and Astros are not playoff teams yet, but...as it stands now, the Mariners feel uninspired and limp. They can use this to jumpstart a revolution or they can just give up now. I know which one I'd prefer.

Coming Tomorrow- He had a dismal first half, then last month he started hitting longballs on the regular and now he's giving his team something of a chance.

Kyle Do Anything

 

Alright, we've learned a lot about the Cardinals this week, we've learned they're better than the Phillies but not as good as the Cubs. This is very useful and solves nothing.

The Cardinals are teetering on the brink of a playoff push, and haven't committed but also haven't NOT committed either. They only gave up a few pieces at the deadline, just Lars Nootbaar, Dustin May and Jojo Romero, nobody too crucial, nobody driving the bus. I'd say it was to make room for some guys stuck in the minors but Quinn Mathews and Ryan Fernandez are still held up anyhow. The Cubs loss today went so badly that the Cards are immediately bringing up Joshua Baez, and are hoping he leads the leads the team forward...much like Blaze Jordan and Brycen Mautz and Quinn Mathews....uh, haven't done. 

It's very confusing, because the Cardinals have a lot in place that brought them back to relevance. J.J. Wetherholt is probably winning Rookie of the Year this year, he's terrific defensively and has also managed to hit pretty well, with 16 homers and 45 RBIs. Masyn Winn is still a terrific MLB shortstop, even if offensively he's been down a bit. Alec Burleson's having a terrific year, leading the league in doubles with 30 and very near a 100 RBI season. But beyond that, well...I'm not sure. Ivan Herrera's a nice power bat but he's got limitations, for sure. Jordan Walker WAS having a breakout year but he stopped hitting homers right after winning the Derby, and his strikeouts have really been piling up. Kyle Schwarber was able to snap out of the post-derby hangover, but Walker hasn't yet. Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott are chilling back in Memphis wondering where it all went wrong. After years of Yadier Molina followed by Willson Contreras, they now have Pedro Pages as the everyday, and he's *fine*. 

The rotation, while still very anonymous, is better, because all the people nobody's heard of are at least displaying consistent stats. Kyle Leahy, since June 23rd, has only allowed 7 earned runs and has 4 wins. His season didn't START the greatest, but he's putting something together here as he becomes more and more accustomed to going long. He, Pallante and McGreevy make up an unassuming but strong core, with 3.5 ERAs all around and all starts made. Pallante's having the best technical season of the three, with 12 wins, but all three are great. Even Hunter Dobbins is beginning to come into his own again, he's got his ERA below 3.50 and has been dominant, if unsupported, in his last two starts. 

I personally do not think the Cardinals are a playoff team right now, I think they're more okay than anything. But a lot of their competitors for a wild card spot [Pirates, Marlins, Phils], when given the option to be okay or shit the bed...shit the bed. So all the Cardinals need to do is keep a steady pace and not fall apart, which they're good at. Or just hope nobody they're deadlocked with suddenly takes off.

Coming Tomorrow- A very good pitcher having a very nice year whose team continues to ignore every inclination to seize the moment. 

Max'd Out

 

Two years ago, the Tigers punted at the deadline, giving away Carson Kelly and Jack Flaherty, two very impressive rental pieces. And then a funny thing happened: they caught fire, made the playoffs and chased some great teams, eventually becoming a 1st place contender last year. This year, for the majority of the season the Tigers were a 4th place mainstay with a snakebitten rotation and no real direction, so at the deadline, they punted once again, trading their #1 piece, Tarik Skubal, to the Dodgers, as well as dealing Casey Mize and Jake Rogers. It was an admission that the early-2020s rebuild had failed, and that focusing on the new class of characters [like Kevin McGonigle, Hao-Yu Lee and Troy Melton], would tide them over until their next opportunity.

Then, once again...something very funny happened. They took off.

Since July 28th, around when they dealt Skubal, the Tigers are 10-4. A hair under .500, nearly lapping the Twins for 2nd place...and looking absolutely revitalized, even without Skubal.

The key might have been calling up Max Clark, an organizational darling thought to be the future of the Tigers. Since McGonigle worked so well [a 5.6 WAR as a rookie so far], Clark was a no-brainer, and fit right into center due to Matt Vierling's injury. Since this, they've also lost Riley Greene, meaning the outfield right now is Clark, Ben Malgeri and Zach McKinstry, which is NOT IDEAL. Clark's numbers have softened the blow though, as he's hitting .289 with 1 homer and 7 RBIs, plus some terrific stuff in center. He's a natural with a high ceiling, and his contact game is already pretty nice. If him and McGonigle stick around, the Tigers will be just fine, especially considering that Dillon Dingler also seems to be in it for the long haul, with 26 homers and 80 RBIs. The lack of a pure star like Greene is worrying, but McGonigle, Gleyber Torres, and the suddenly awakening bat of Spencer Torkelson are doing everything they can.

Obviously the area of concern is gonna be the rotation without Mize or Skubal, but Jackson Jobe just got activated and his first start went really well. Beyond that, Troy Melton's still looking like a star with a 7-1 record and a 1.46 ERA, Keider Montero's got a 3.38 ERA and a 1.104 WHIP, and Framber Valdez, though clearly not Astros dominant, has been piling together some decent starts lately, and has a 4.26 ERA with 106 Ks. Hopefully Flaherty returns soon and the worst of this is over. I'm also very hopeful that Verlander can come back at some point, even if he doesn't see October. At the very least, Kenley Jansen hitting 500 saves is a storyline that could tide people over for the rest of the season if JV doesn't come back.

Clearly there's flaws, and clearly some big pieces are now missing, but the spark is there in Detroit, and the Tigers now want it more than they ever did, arguably, with Skubal. I'd love to see them shock the world and wind up in the playoffs, even if the White Sox winning would be equally as exciting.

Coming Tonight: A Cardinals reliever-turned-starter keeping the ship steady as the team heads for uncertain waters.

If You Don't Build it...

 

As I write this, the Philadelphia Phillies are playing a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins in a cornfield in Iowa. You can watch it on Netflix I think, if they somehow manage to figure out how a national telecast works. Many Phillies fans are convinced this will be the last time in 2026, or possibly this decade, that the Phillies will make must-see television. I am not that cynical yet...but I'm getting close.

Let's be honest. The Phillies have looked rough. They needed an outfield bat and a fourth starter, and they got Luis Arraez, who is neither. And Arraez has been alright, but the problems still persist. The idea that Dombrowski had was using Bryan de la Cruz, Derek Hill and a returning Andrew Painter as a more cost-efficient, practical version of getting, say, Luis Robert, Mike Trout and Michael Wacha. Except you try telling that to a Philly fan. Every Christmas they want a Porsche, and don't understand how impractical, and impossible, it would be to get a new car every year. I'm not saying the Phils are asking too much, as they haven't won a ring since 2008, but we already knew this Phils team would be a step down from the last few years's, the midyear boom was a very nice surprise, and now that things are leveled, the fans are acting very entitled. Like 'HOW DARE WE NOT COMPETE'. My dude...in April you were expecting a fifth place finish. Now you're upset that the Braves are still better because they actually made the moves to keep the team young and keep the momentum. It really is impossible to please some Phils fans, and I say that as one of them.

But lately, things will be looking good, or Luzardo or Wheels will have a great start, and then Orion Kerkering will blow a save or Trea Turner will strike out with the bases loaded, and all of the sudden the team was never good to begin with. Have some nuance! The team is inherently good, this is just not their month. Anyone who thinks a bad August means the season's over has forgotten that the other rivals for a wild card spot include the Marlins, Cardinals, Pirates and Padres, all of whom we are better than [Padres is a stretch but the Phils' offense is better]. Panicking just makes Philly fans warm, I get it, they had 25 years of panicking in between championships. Minnesota fans have gone 30 years and they're not burning their city down.

At the end of the day, the Phillies still have a lot on their side. They do still have Luis Arraez, who, despite slumping a bit this week, is still Luis Arraez. They still have an incredible 1-2-3 punch of a rotation that will no doubt be a threat in a postseason situation. They still have Jhoan Duran, one of the best closers in baseball, who has a 1.74 ERA, 59 Ks, somehow even less runs allowed than last year, and 25 saves. And they still have Kyle Schwarber, who just hit his 36th home run and is hungry for more. This is not a perfect Phillies team, but neither was the 2022 iteration and they made a World Series. We're not a first round bye team, but we can grind up some momentum on the road to a championship series, and we might just need to do that again.

The Phillies season is not over yet. They're not on borrowed time. And this isn't the end. No use thinking like a spoilsport about it. That's not how you get through a month like this.

Coming Tomorrow- He was thought of as a last ditch effort to save a lost season. And now he's a key centerfield piece for a team that's charging towards first.

Sniped From Below

 

Since July 9th, the Arizona Diamondbacks are 19-11, and have reclaimed 2nd place. They're now 9 games back from the Dodgers, which still isn't ideal but it's a lot closer than it was. And they're currently riding another incredible run from Corbin Carroll, who just hit the 100th home run of his career. Slowly, and carefully, the D-Backs are making things happen this year.

The winning formula is flanked by the usual core of dominators [Carroll, Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno, Geraldo Perdomo], plus the addition of Nolan Arenado, who still has some tricks up his sleeve [and 18 homers too], and Ryan Waldschmidt, who's now hitting .285 as a deep lineup guy. Perdomo last year shocked the nation with a league-leading 7.1 WAR season, thanks to a surprise 100-RBI showing, 20 homers, 27 steals, 173 hits, an .851 OPS and a .290 average. This placed him 4th in the MVP voting. Many people wrote Perdomo off as a defense-heavy utility piece, but when everything lines up he can be a scarily accurate mid-lineup bat with some awesome perks. 2026 isn't quite as huge as 2025 for the shortstop, but he's still got 9 homers, 42 RBIs, 17 steals and a 3.7 WAR thanks to continued dominance at short. He's one of those pieces you need to make the rest of the team better, someone who can do it all without being flashy. Corbin Carroll is the multifaceted type that's more front-facing and gets the job done, while Perdomo is the more under the radar provider. Both work, along with Tyler Locklear's long-awaited audition for a starting 1st base job, Lars Nootbaar adjusting to his new surroundings, and James McCann still hitting .290 and playing catcher at 36.

The rotation is also evolving forward, as something that once looked so cursed now looks better than it has in a while. Eddie Rodriguez is a rock up top, we knew that, he's 11-4 with a 4.3 ERA, he's great. Now everybody else has caught up. Michael Soroka is healthy again, still has a 3 ERA and is 8-3. Brandon Pfaadt has reclaimed his mojo, and has a 3.36 ERA and 6 wins in 21 games. Mitch Bratt has finally adjusted to MLB play, and has a 3.74 ERA with 25 Ks in 7 starts. Zack Littell's talents are being used in long relief, and that's going a lot better for him. Merrill Kelly's getting his ERA back down and attempting to save his season. Eventually Corbin Burnes is going to return for the October push and nobody's gonna be prepared for how good the D-Backs will look at that point. The team WAS lacking in a solid ninth inning choice, but Brandyn Garcia seems to have taken that mantle, he's their go-to closer now, has 3 saves and a 2.18 ERA with 36 Ks. Very healthy sort of relief piece to have around.

Look, I'm not entirely sure how the D-Backs fit into the larger wild card picture, I see the Phillies falling, the Cardinals rising, and the D-Backs should just keep pedaling how they've been pedaling before. They've fallen just short of competition the past few years, and now they've got a winning formula, they just need to hang on, as the Phillies, Padres and even the Marlins, Nats and Pirates all won't go down without a fight. 

Coming Tonight: One of the best closers in baseball. Shame about the rest of the team, though.

Once Again Rewarding Ineptitude

 

Only in America can something suck for three and a half months and still win.

Let's compare the Astros' sudden rise to other teams I don't like rising midyear and taking off. The 2015/2016 Blue Jays teams had June swells and used smart July dealing to get even better and run to the ALCS. The 2010s Cardinals teams were also sneaky, efficiently run and always on the outskirts, waiting for that great three week stress to propel them to a division win. Last year's Blue Jays team, like the 2015 one, rode a June swell but used the 'uncommon man' theory and threw a ragtag, unpolished group of sheer competitors in the ring with the LA Dodgers. 

If the Astros are able to do anything at all this season despite having an absolute lemon of a roster, a completely snakebitten rotation that they themselves traded key pieces of away, and a frustrating lack of infrastructure, it'll be because the deal they made with devil upon joining the AL really is binding.

Like, once again, this is a first place team? Who, besides Yordan Alvarez or Jeremy Pena, is doing anything? What's going on here? Peter Lambert is the team's best pitcher, he has a 3 ERA, an 8-6 record and 111 strikeouts, it is perfectly fine but this team used to have Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole lead the rotation and now it's Peter Lambert and a still-rehabbing Hunter Brown and GOOD LUCK! Brown is doing fine, he's got a 3.68 ERA, and 67 Ks, but the dreams of a successful follow-up to 2025's breakout year have dissipated. This is fine, it's getting the job done, but it's been very human. Behind that you have Ronel Blanco and Cristian Javier continuously getting chased and Hayden Wesneski doing alright enough for himself but still having a few question marks above him. I remember back when putting Cristian Javier and Ronel Blanco out there meant you'd get consistency and stability, not a 7 ERA. You cannot get first place in the AL West with these chuckleheads still trying to pass off down years. 

Then you have an outfield consisting of Cam Smith, who's got 16 homers and 44 RBIs despite a .226 average, Taylor Trammell, who's usually a bench bat at this rate but is now starting and hitting .233 with 7 homers and 20 RBIs, and Daulton Varsho, who hasn't done a great deal in Houston yet. All of Jake Meyers, Joey Loperfido, Zach Dezenzo, Zach Cole, Lucas Spence and Brice Matthews are all chilling in the minors while this cobbled group of replacement level guys try and make it look like Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley and George Springer weren't all just here. 

The team's batting .244 as a unit, but I have no idea how much lower that would be if Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena weren't there, because DAMN. Yordan Alvarez is headed for an MVP right now, because he's got a triple crown in his sights. He's hitting .322, has 35 homers and 87 RBIs. Nobody else is on that level right now, and even if Aaron Judge were healthy, that would be THE mark right now. I'm not too salty to admit Yordan Alvarez is a league-wide talent, the dude's dangerous. But he's one of the few guys keeping this team in the race.

The Rangers and Mariners have both been winning lately, and look to be making this something of a foot race. The Astros are 2 games over .500 and trying desperately to get whatever momentum they can out of what they know to be a lesser iteration of the club. Like last year, they're trying to outrun themselves, and while I like to think I know how this goes...I don't think they'll go down without a fight.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the most talented all-around athletes in the game right now, multifaceted and versatile...and just one of the many guys working to reopen the book on the story of the NL West this year.