Minding the Jet-Lag

 

It's gotta be weird when you come up with the new-regime Dodgers and move to a market where the postseason isn't guaranteed anymore. Cause the Yankees could have a fluke bad season, like they did in 2023, or they could have some rebuilding years in between Jeter and Judge. But the Dodgers have made the playoffs every year since 2013, meaning there's a majority of current high schoolers who hadn't even been born yet the last time they didn't make the playoffs. Remember in 2012 when the Dodgers could have Kemp, Kershaw, Hanley Ramirez, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett and still not make the playoffs? That is wild. But they've been there in every subsequent season, and guys like Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Walker Buehler, Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig, Dustin May, Max Muncy and Gavin Lux can all come into careers where they're just in the playoffs every season.

And then they leave, either via trade or free agency, and it's not guaranteed. 

Corey Seager left the Dodgers after the 2021 season, signed a mega-deal with the Rangers, and the year after he got there he was a World Series winner again. His Rangers WAR totals have eclipsed his Dodgers WAR totals, probably because the Rangers have gotten a healthier, more consistent Seager who's been able to play a leading role. Since joining the Rangers, Seager has topped 30 home runs 3 times, which was something he never did with the Dodgers, and his 96 RBIs in 2023 were higher than his Dodgers totals. In joining this team, Seager went from a pretty solid, likable young infielder to a contact machine with a possible Hall of Fame trajectory. He just had to sacrifice the playoff certainty, because aside from the 2023 World Series win, he hasn't really made it back to October too much. 

This year is a closer bet than most, as the Rangers are still circling the division lead, as they and the Astros keep trading off who gets to be good so nobody actually takes a lead. They haven't gotten the BEST version of Seager, as he's still missed a lot of time. He's hitting .224 with 13 homers and 34 RBIs, so at least the production is there. It's been up to a combination of wild contact from Ezequiel Duran and his clutch ability and Cheesy Power Hitter Corner courtesy of Joc Pederson and Jake Burger. This appears to be doing something, and I put them ahead of the Astros for the division, but it's not a definite yet, or even a playoff appearance in general. So that has to be sobering for Seager and Pederson.

Then you have Walker Buehler over in San Diego, and it's a much different situation than the Dodgers years. Because the Padres actually have a nice playoff shot, they're eyeing a wild card spot at the moment, they've all been playing really well recently. Fernando Tatis has caught fire, he's looking like his old self, he's leading the team to glory. Jackson Merrill, Ty France and Xander Bogaerts are playing better now than they have all year. The pitching additions have worked, the team looks way better, and they've been 24-14 since the ASG break.

But Buehler's in a weird position. After all the injuries and delays, he came back last season and wasn't all that great. Made the playoffs with Philly, wasn't used much as a starter. Signs with San Diego, makes the Opening Day rotation, does...fine. Right now Buehler is 8-6 with a 4.63 ERA and 108 Ks, it's fine but not as great as his heyday. But because the team has been steadily chugging along, he's not really much of a detriment. He's succeeding even without his best stuff, and is still a crucial member of a potential playoff team without being 2019 Walker Buehler. So it's an interesting balance. Buehler may have some really critical starts going forward, but right now he's not as valuable to the team as someone like Michael King, Randy Vasquez or Robbie Ray. But he's here, and he's doing his best, and he's still not an awful choice. It's just not what he's used to given how pivotal he was to those Dodgers rotations back in the day.

Both Seager and Buehler have a good chance of making the playoffs, but it's not definite. This is the tougher road to glory, but it's one they're taking nonetheless, and hopefully it goes well for them.

Coming Tomorrow- I think I've seen this guy pitch more than any other guy in my lifetime. Almost always excellent up there.

Outmuscled

 

It really is this simple, even still. The Cubs have six guys in their starting lineup with over 500 plate appearances, and all of them are among the best hitters at their position. Bregman, PCA, Suzuki, Happ, Hoerner, Busch. All show up every day and do their absolute best and outhit everybody, and they do that. One of them's probably winning an MVP unless Shohei has anything to say about it. The Cubs' hitters are hitting .250, there's three guys with over 20 homers [the whole outfield], and even the less-heralded positions have extremely good security. And yet because the pitching staff has a combined 4.6 WAR, compared to the hitters' 31.5, I'm not sure what kind of playoff team the Cubs are going to be.

Like, let's be honest, the Cubs went into July knowing they needed to fix the rotation, and they did. They already picked up David Peterson, then they got Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes. The rotation is now Imanaga-Boyd-Peterson-Holmes-Gausman, and you all see how that's better, right? Holmes has been terrific in 4 starts, with a 1.96 ERA, and Gausman's continued his steady but not prime season with a 2-1 record and 22 Ks. Peterson's 4-1 with a 3.93 ERA in 9 starts. Obviously this is better. But it's still not elite. Without Justin Steele, Cade Horton or Ben Brown, it's not elite, and the Cubs will need to hope that Imanaga stays this sharp, or that Boyd continues his upswing. They have Daniel Palencia back, he is closing games, but he's still a little shaken. The bullpen's a liability in general still. They got Ryan Zeferjahn to prevent this and he hasn't helped at all.

So the idea is just to keep hammering away, which is effective. PCA's now going for the 30/30/30 season, he's at 26 doubles. Happ has come alive again all of the sudden, he's looking for his 25th home run sooner or later. Carson Kelly's been very steady, he's got 8 homers and 45 RBIs, continuing his positive production from last year. Michael Conforto's been an excellent DH, he's got 12 homers and 33 RBIs. Pedro Ramirez has been a HUGE help filling in for Swanson, he's hitting .291 with 21 RBIs and 10 doubles. They've had some huge wins in the past week, including scoring 19 runs against the Mariners, and now get to play the Reds this weekend as they head towards a quiet fall.

I just know that the other teams in the NL will be more balanced. The Phillies have great pitching and some definite stars in the lineup. The Braves and Brewers have both facets in droves. The Dodgers obviously are balanced. I can see this team outmuscling the Padres but that's basically it. Unless the Cubs somehow figure it out in a way that fixes all the issues the pitching has had all year, they may exit the postseason around when they did last year, and I really don't want that for them.

Coming Tonight: One of the single most consistent all-around performers in the game. He's got two World Series rings. Right now he's trying to get his team to the playoffs, which is way tougher than it should be.

Kwan the Record

 

So as it stands right now, with a month or so left in the season, the Cleveland Guardians have the third AL Wild Card spot. The Yanks and Sox have an insane lead for those first two, the Guards have the third, and are a game ahead of the Rangers for it, while also being 2.5 games behind the White Sox for the division. It's not a bad place to be. The thing about this Guardians team is that the tide can shift at any moment because, as you'll recall, this team was poised to lead the division for the first few months, then May and June happened and they fell away from .500, and then late July and early August happened and they got even less of a foothold.

However, they have won their last seven games, which works out considering they were all against noncompetitive west coast teams, and now get to play the Royals after they're done with LA, so this time I believe there is an effort to make the Guardians a playoff team yet. Not sure if it's being led by the Guards themselves or the MLB, but there you go.

After a really dull first few months, Steven Kwan is now one of the most important players on this team. His defense is still league-tier, and his contact game is as helpful as always. There are so many years where the Guardians were about to trade Kwan, or could have but didn't, and so he's remained the backbone of the lineup, with some production guaranteed despite the lack of extra base hits this year. A team that has Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez and Brayan Rocchio together doing the contact work is way ahead of the competition, and the hitting by those guys alone has been very impressive, not even mentioning the power guys like DeLauter, Lowe and Adell. By the way, Jo Adell is working pretty damn well as the right field option in Cleveland, he's got 4 homers and 18 RBIs already and the fans love him. Angel Genao's also coming into his own at short, meaning Bazzana and Genao could be a recurring thing going forward. Like usual, the Guardians are a swiss army knife of great young players who can all trade off being the hero, and now that Angel Martinez's better numbers are back the team's even more volatile.

In addition, Foster Griffin appears to be working as the fifth rotation guy. He hasn't been Nats-strong yet, but keep in mind that he took about a month to lock in with Washington, and he's still got a 4 ERA, and 3 wins. Bibee, Messick and Williams are perfectly fine handling most of the work though, and Williams is in the midst of a 200-K year, which should surprise no one. I blinked and Cade Smith has 35 saves, that's pretty awesome considering the job was all but Clase's a year and a half ago. Just the best bullpen in the AL probably, despite Craig Yoho's best efforts. 

The Guardians currently look better than the White Sox, and could reclaim the division and make October very interesting. They have a very nice chance of making the postseason, but unless they make a run at the division, their berth may be at the hands of whichever bandwagon wild card team wants to take off. Which won't be as fun.

Coming Tomorrow- A very sturdy catcher for one of the best hitting teams in baseball. 

Keeping Distance

 
As I write this, both the Braves and the Rays, who've been leading their respective divisions for the majority of the summer, now have a competitor 3.5 games behind them. Both teams have lost a ton of ground in the last few weeks. The Rays dropped 5 of 7 games to the Orioles, one of which I was in attendance for and was truly glorious. The Braves are 6-10 since the start of the Yankees series back on August 7th, and despite a nice showing last night against the Dodgers, are in danger of being lapped. 

Of the two, the Braves probably have the better team, or moreover the one with better infrastructure. The current incarnation of the team has Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Ha-Seong Kim, Sean Murphy and A.J. Smith-Shawver all healthy, for once. Now, forget for a moment that none of them are playing especially well. The infrastructure is still there. Mike Yastrzemski and Lane Thomas are all on hand to prevent against Acuna getting hurt again. Jim Jarvis just went down but something tells me he'll be back soon enough to buttress Dubon and Kim. The point of getting Tyler Mahle was to ensure that A.J. Smith-Shawver wasn't gonna overtax himself trying to be that strong fifth man, and Mahle's honestly been a better answer, he's 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA and 23 Ks in 4 starts, better arguably than his Giants numbers. 

I did get to see Ronald Acuna hit a homer a few weeks ago. It was during a loss. So him doing his flapping his arms schtick and clowning around, even during a loss, that doesn't work as well. That works when they're all playing well as a unit, or when Acuna's having a 40-70 season or something, but not when he's trying to salvage another mid year. It's clear he's still a great talent but he's not consistent. Every year either he's gonna give you gold or hobble through half the season and be alright for the rest of it. This year he's not the main takeaway from this Braves team, Baldwin and Olson are. And I'm not sure how he is with that.

The Rays, meanwhile, came into prominence after steadily climbing the division and going on a streak once the Yankees went cold. They've sustained the momentum for most of the season, but they're 4-7 since the A's series ended [along with a 9 game winning streak], and 5 of those games, as discussed, came at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. The other two came from another division rival, the Blue Jays, so it really just adds insult to injury. Freddy Peralta's still struggling like he did in New York, the bullpen's beginning to turn again despite Bryan Baker leading the league in saves with 38 [he did give up the double to Dylan Beavers that sunk the game I went to though], Aranda and Diaz are beginning to calm down a tad, and the magic of late June through July may be wearing off. 

I want to stress that there's still a lot that works about this Rays team though. Getting Liam Hicks was a really savvy decision, as he's an excellent contact hitter that went yard when I was in Baltimore. He's not a great catcher, but he hits better than Nick Fortes does. Ryan Vilade is a big, well-built truck of a man who isn't terrific in right but hits pretty well, with 11 homers and 37 RBIs. He's somewhat limited but he's a great role player, a lot like Jonny DeLuca honestly. Chandler Simpson is leading the AL in steals with 35, and he leads it in triples with 6, though still no home runs. And of course, Junior Caminero's having another phenomenal year, with 35 homers and 84 RBIs. The man is a star.

Here's what I'll say, regarding who gets caught. The Yankees have a higher probability of catching the Rays than the Phillies have of catching the Braves, because the Phillies have forgotten they're a baseball team more often than the Yankees have. The Yanks just got Cody Bellinger back, Max Fried should be on the way, and they're gonna keep getting stronger. The Phillies had a nice week back there but now they're waking up the Mariners and some of the same issues are still at play. I still think the Braves are a better team than the Phillies, and the Dodgers series is proving it. The Yankees might be on the same level as the Rays, and could get very close to lapping them if current trends hold. 

Coming Tonight: One of the most consistent hitters of the decade in a Cleveland team that, need I remind you, has also had Jose Ramirez on it. 

Whatever Motivates You...

 

I did not think it would take signing Edwin Diaz for Tanner Scott to become a great closer again.

Not that he was bad last year, but around midway through, things hit a snag. 23 saves is all well and good, but he kept blowing them, and ended the year with a 4.74 ERA and a -0.6 WAR. Yes, he still won a ring, but he saw no playoff time with the Dodgers because the team was too scared to actually use its bullpen, so they had like 4 other starters do all the relief work, gaming the system. Scott, at his peak with Miami, was one of the most effective relief pitchers in the game. To be perfectly honest, him not always succeeding as a closer isn't really a knock on him, as he's arguably just better as a setup man. Those 23 saves he got last season while tanking were a career high for him, so I think being a better closer involves not doing all the things that make him a great reliever. It's kind of screwed up. 

So moving Scott back to a setup role wasn't exactly a death sentence, and to be fair it worked alright for Blake Treinen. But then Edwin Diaz absolutely flounders in LA, leaving the ninth open and plenty of opportunities for Scott to save games. So he's been a ton better this year, with a 2.24 ERA, 19 saves and 64 Ks. He feels elite again, and he's stayed extremely consistent. Being surrounded by Jack Dreyer, Edgardo Henriquez, Alex Vesia and Brock Stewart also helps, as they've all been fantastic in relief roles. 

For the Dodgers, the return of Tyler Glasnow means the overpopulation of the rotation is once again a factor, because nowYamamoto, Skubal, Snell and Glasnow are non-negotiable, and it's down to either Roki Sasaki, who's not terrific but still good enough, and Eric Lauer, who asked to be traded from Toronto due to being made to do long relief appearances, for that last spot. AND at some point Shohei Ohtani is expected to start games again, so that'll make it even more crowded. I really do think going for a skeleton crew formation for now, emphasizing Yamamoto, Snell, Skubal and Glasnow, and priming the other two for relief roles in the playoffs, is the way. That way if Ohtani is ready to start again by the postseason, at worst that means you'd be using Glasnow in long relief as well, and that's...still pretty nice, despite how shaky Glasnow's seemed tonight.

The Dodgers have won six straight after a messy mid-August, but these six have been against the Rockies and Pirates. This week is the Braves, who are still quite good, and the Tigers who are really sneaky and are looking good against the Rays right now. From there they play a lot of teams that could be spoilers, from the Nats to the Marlins to the Reds. The Dodgers want that top seed, or at least enough security and momentum to make October as easy as the last two, and without Shohei Ohtani's usual batting dominance [he's ONLY hitting .288 with ONLY 30 homers and 80 RBIs, the madman], the team will need to try harder than usual. It's looking trickier now that Andy Pages is hurt and both catchers are still out for another week, but they're trying everything. Alek Thomas is now starting in center, giving the outfield a combined WAR of 0.0. Kyle Tucker might be an albatross around this team's neck if he doesn't start hitting, because at least Bobby Abreu would do some hitting when you signed him. Tucker has a .689 OPS. Miguel Rojas, who's about to retire and manage somebody probably, has a .720. Ye gods.

I'm not as mad as I am at the Astros that the team's still a frontrunner, because there's so much that's elite about this team, the runs have no problem getting scored and the depth is there, I just don't think they're the best team in baseball right now. The Dodgers might be playing more defense standings-wise than they're used to this year, and they'll need to really dial in if they want that threepeat, because right now there's one or two teams that might want the NL more.

Coming Tomorrow- A man that is all torso, all neck and all business. 

On the Precipice of Another Yanks-Stros Series

 

So here's what we know. When it doesn't count, the Yankees have a winning record against the Astros. Regular season play we win a lot of our series' against them now. This season the Astros lost their first series against the Yankees back in April. Admittedly that was when we still had Aaron Judge but it's okay now because Heliot Ramos and his negative batting average is here. 

It is now late August, and both teams have playoff considerations. One team is on a relatively strong run right now, and the other team has been shakily bobbing back and forth between 1st and 2nd on a sub-.500 record. One team is getting stronger as more people come back, and one team just fired their GM and traded away a starting pitcher in a year they really needed starting pitching.

What I'm saying is I'm worried.

Tonight, the Astros are starting a rookie named Ethan Pecko, a guy from Upper Darby who, between him and Adam Macko, ensure that Texas will now lead the union in names I cannot take seriously. ETHAN PECKO. Sounds like a side character in an Animaniacs sub-character segment. The Goodfeathers take on Ethan Pecko in Breakfast: Impossible. He did fine in his debut last week, but gave up the sole two runs of the game against the Angels, meaning the bullpen, which has been snakebitten but improving, had to save the day. Considering that Peter Lambert and Hayden Wesneski are playing big roles for this rotation, why not Ethan Pecko? I'll remind you that Cristian Javier is struggling to stay unhit, Ronel Blanco's chilling in the minors after an 8 ERA, Kai-Wei Teng and Tatsuya Imai aren't allowed to start anymore and Spencer Arrighetti's now helping a team I don't hate make a playoff run. And that these rotations used to be so packed that Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia would barely make the cut. But sure, Ethan Pecko.

I feel similarly about Cam Smith, one of the go-to outfield bats for the Astros now. He's been here all season and he's hitting .215 with a .671 OPS, despite 17 homers and 48 RBIs. This outfield has seen George Springer, Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick and Kyle Tucker, and now it's basically down to Cam Smith to keep things moving, and...he's a sharp enough player but right now he doesn't compare. And the team desperately needs him to. At least Jeremy Pena has covered for Carlos Correa excellently, and is having a terrific year despite missing time. At least Yordan Alvarez is probably winning an MVP as a rare returning Astro who can actually do what he's supposed to. If there's no support, and a lot of okay options rather than strong ones at multiple spots, there's no point.

There's still a chance the Astros can win the division, because the Rangers are similarly noncommittal and the Mariners seem to have decided to punt. But I really think it's an uphill battle with this specific squad. I'm still very worried they can outdo the Yankees this week and get rolling, but I just don't see the vision with this team going deep.

Coming Tonight: He was given the ninth in a huge market last season, and he struggled. So they got someone else. Then that someone else shat the bed big time and now the other guy's a great closer again.

Murph-ection

 

Heading into what could be the last MLB postseason before a lockout, there's one thing that the majority of MLB fans are hoping for, and that's a thwarted threepeat. The Dodgers winning isn't interesting anymore. Not that it isn't cool for the team with Shohei Ohtani to win rings, no that's fine, but it's not interesting that it keeps happening despite all the other more interesting stories coming out of the woodwork. The Dodgers are supposed to be the place-setter that other teams subvert. It didn't happen last year, even if it arguably should have.

So here we are again. The Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball, and the Brewers currently have a better record than them. This week they have to play the Mets, perennial spoilers, and the Rangers, who are likely just about to decide they'd like to win the AL West after all, and- NO, DON'T CLOSE THE STREETS DOWN YET, LOS ANGELES.

I think I look for so much logic in baseball, a very illogical pastime, and I always expect the top team to face some bit of difficulty getting to the end since this is a larger playoff schematic, and...well, the ones I root for always do. So I try to expect something different given the recent subversions and changes and I still get gobsmacked by a trite, unexpected outcome that...ultimately is the most expected outcome.

The Brewers are currently the best team in baseball. They haven't been to a World Series since the 1980s. They've been to three NLCSs since 2010. They have a team with the depth to withstand just about anything. I really want this to happen.

Logan Henderson is a big piece of 'why this year', because it took him a while to stay healthy, and it took the Brewers a while to find room for him, but the stars aligned. This year he's been phenomenal, with an 8-2 record, a 2.60 ERA and a 0.894 WHIP in 13 starts. He's looking confident, durable and exactly as advertised. Misiorowski is obviously the takeaway, he's on a Cy Young path, and Harrison is a really nice, consistent second option, but having Henderson there as the strong third option makes for a really winning October combination. And Shane Drohan, Robert Gasser and Dustin May aren't too bad either. A whole onslaught of really impressive arms, plus arguably one of the best bullpens in baseball. Like, when even losing Abner Uribe doesn't really wound the unit, that's when you know you're alright.

And beyond that, the core of Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, William Contreras, Brice Turang and Garrett Mitchell is truly excellent. Chourio's still one of the most unstoppable young players in the league, Bauers is having a career year and might get to 25 homers, and nearly everybody is hitting. Luis Lara and Cooper Pratt are also both contributing and having excellent moments. Lara's a great contact hitter with great outfield coverage, and Pratt's already making shortstop his own, despite the recent surge from Joey Ortiz. The talent runs so deeply, and the forward progress is across the board.

I really think the Brewers can go deep this year, and learn from the 2025 loss to become even better going forward. Obviously the MLB itself would prefer a Dodgers win...but a Brewers win might be even cooler.

Coming Tomorrow- A second-year outfield bat from a team nobody is stopping from winning the division.