Still Smooth

 

Carlos Santana has hit 322 home runs in 15 seasons. I think a lot of people forget that.

Obviously the one they call Slamtana isn't exactly gonna be in much consideration for the Hall of Fame in six or seven years, but he's played in a World Series, started an All-Star Game, has four 25+ homer seasons, and is one of the rare players to actually improve defensively as his career goes on. Moving him from catcher to first was a wise move by Cleveland, as it lengthened Santana's career and allowed him to blossom into a routinely-above-average 1st baseman with power perks. Santana rarely got hurt, is perhaps responsible for two down years in his whole career, and is still playing, and hitting home runs, at 38. 

In an era of baseball where everyone's coming up at 25 and actually starting consistently at 27, then getting hurt for consecutive seasons, that's all too rare. Not many hitters are as consistent and reliable as Santana, which is wild, because Santana is a professional power hitter. Those are known for wear and tear. Yet here Santana is in Minnesota, with a .751 OPS [his highest since 2019], 63 RBIs and 21 homers. He's close to notching his fifth career 25+ homer year, and he's doing it with a team that, at most, was expecting him to be a DH piece this year. But y'know, Kirilloff got hurt, Larnach is best at DH, Santana's still decent on defense, so sure let's...have 38-year old Carlos Santana be our everyday first baseman. And SOMEHOW...this has worked really well for them! I'm amazed!

I think I just find it interesting that this is a moment where Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler, the three most integral hitters on the team arguably, are all hurt, the playoff race is coming down to just a few games, and the Twins are desperately hanging onto the last playoff spot, and a lot of the load is falling on Carlos Santana's shoulders, and it's working out. And that's why this Twins team is so good this year, because in the absence of those guys, people like Jose Miranda, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach and Willi Castro are coming to the rescue and keeping the team together. Pablo Lopez has had a wonderful month, and he's now 15-8 with a 3.88 ERA and 183 Ks, another excellent season for the hurler. Griffin Jax is putting together one of the top relief seasons of the year, with a 2.01 ERA in 65 appearances. 

The depth going on in this Twins team, which was not always this good, is keeping them a contender. And there's also the threat that these guys who are hurt now will be back for a playoff run, if one happens. This is a very different kind of Twins team than the previous ones to advance to the postseason, even from last season. And hopefully they can surprise some people again this year.

Coming Tonight: And to think, if Brandon Williamson had been ready just a week earlier, we wouldn't have been able to see this guy succeed at the MLB level this year. 

The Myth of Another Homegrown Mets Ace

 

In 2016, the New York Mets had multiple pitchers that came specifically through their system that were succeeding for them. Matt Harvey was still in his prime, Jacob deGrom was right about to catch absolute fire, Steven Matz was just getting started himself. Thor and Wheeler were acquired in trades, that's been well reported, but even with Bartolo Colon hanging around, what made the mid-2010s rotation fresh is that so much of it was homegrown, and so much felt like the Mets had earned it themselves.

Right now, there are two former Mets pitching products with genuine Cy Young cases. Neither of them are playing for the Mets. So that's where we are now.

The Wheeler thing I don't blame the Mets for. Zach Wheeler spent so much time injured that once he did hit his prime and become a league talent, he was no longer really wanting to stay in New York, and Philly just had the better offer. But Seth Lugo is gonna be something people look at for a while. Because at any point in his six or so years in New York, they could have started him. They just repeatedly chose not to. And then the moment a team decides to start him, he hits his potential and now with the Royals he's one of the best pitchers of the year. If things get managed differently, Wheeler and Lugo hit their primes in New York, and possibly deGrom even sticks around. But instead...deGrom's making his comeback in Arlington, Wheeler's helping Philly get back to the playoffs, Lugo's a part of a huge Royals team, and the Mets' rotation consists of people like Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino.

Yet this year, the Mets do have a homegrown starter with a 9-2 record, so that's a step in the right direction.

David Peterson was one of those guys who I wasn't sure if he was ever gonna happen. Mets fans had been excited about this guy for a while, and then he'd get to the majors and do nothing. Lather, rinse repeat. And now in his fifth MLB season, at 28, he's finally having a breakout year. He's 9-2, has a 2.98 ERA and 83 Ks. He's been solid, consistent, reliable and a welcome source of stability after Joey Lucchesi and Christian Scott flamed out. Tylor Megill has also been decent recently, filling in for Paul Blackburn, but I really don't think he's ever gonna show any actual consistency, because the second he starts doing well something terrible happens, and this is every year at this point.

The Mets, meanwhile, have to be thankful for pieces like Peterson, as they're still looking like a surprise favorite for a playoff spot. Right now the Mets and Braves are still deadlocked, and though for a while today's Mets game was looking like a sad sight, eventually Lindor and Alvarez prevailed and made it possible for a potential lap. The Braves have the slightly easier schedule this week, considering that the Mets now have to head to Philly, but the Mets have seen Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Jose Iglesias and Mark Vientos go from questionable to surging, and right now they're on their best tear since the initial Grimace takeoff. 

It's not 100% certain that the Mets completely take advantage of this, but if it happens it could lead to an absolutely bonkers playoff campaign for these guys. 

Coming Tomorrow- I never thought when he came up with Cleveland that he'd still be playing, and still be a really reliable hitter, at 38.

Many Such Casas

So. The Red Sox' lead over the other AL Wild Card competitors has diminished. And now the Sox, Mariners and Tigers all have the same record, and are all waiting for the Twins to fall so that there's even the slightest chance of sneaking in. Now, as they say, it's a party.

The Red Sox, this year, have been one of the best okay teams in the bigs. At no point this year did they have any shot at first...but they were never a shoo-in for last either. They seemed to get over debilitating injuries fine, having David Hamilton and Dominic Smith cover for Trevor Story and Triston Casas, then got 'em both back by September. They're responsible for a Rookie of the Year candidate in Wilyer Abreu and a potential MVP candidate in Jarren Duran. They've held the same rotation for the majority of the year, and have kept behind Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello that whole time. Yet, at the same time, their bullpen is more 'fine' than good, 4 guys have over 130 strikeouts, and three starters have sub-.500 W/L ratios, including Houck. This is a very good team that, to me, is missing a dimension or two.

Yet, at the same time, you know who this Red Sox' team's key players are now. You know how much revolves around Duran, Casas, Devers, Abreu, Rafaela, Houck and Bello now, and those guys have proved they're consistent performers. So next year, knowing how good this team was at this point, there's so much more potential for improvement. The Yankees and Orioles may have dominated the AL East this year, but the Sox could be right back in it with them next year, if they don't end up sneaking in this month. 

Casas and Story's returns have been a nice boost though. Casas has 8 homers and 19 RBIs in 45 games, and has retaken 1st without much lag. Story has gotten a hit in each of his first 3 games back, and has an RBI as well. The team has lost a bit of ground, hence the other guys catching up, but just won big against the O's, and may look to keep doing so. After that, it's games agains the Yankees, Rays, Twins and Jays, so the road to a postseason berth is lined specifically with teams that put the Sox' status as a potential competitor into question. They're a good team, I just don't know if they're good enough yet, but we'll know once we're far enough into this last stretch of theirs.

Also...the humor in this team releasing Rich Hill, known to his friends as Dick Mountain, in favor of a reliever named Richard Fitts is....genuinely incredible. I hope they're in on the joke.

Coming Tonight: Of ALL PEOPLE to become the standout of the Mets rotation, I don't think anyone was expecting this guy.

Seconds to Spare

 

Sometimes the MLB schedule lines up crucial series in consequential points on the map. For instance, right now the Mariners, who are 3 games removed from a wild card spot, have to play the Padres, who have a wild card spot and are trying to hang onto it as the Mets grow nearer. Winning and losing this series could dictate the direction of the remainder of the season for both teams. 

They didn't know that when they made the schedule. Yet here we are.

The Mariners, after looking hopeless for a good month or so, are actually in a decent position. They're 4.5 games behind the Astros for the division, which isn't ideal, yet they're 3 games behind the Twins for the last wild card spot, which initially seemed too out of reach for them. Around August 22, the Mariners turned a corner and actually started hitting, and have been 9-7 ever since, with only an Angels series looking like a mar on the record. Very helpful have been the additions of Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner, who've both had several hero moments already after coming over at the deadline. 

Equally helpful, though, has been the progressions of many hitters who've been on the team the whole time and are only now starting to hit. Luke Raley was very much a background presence in the first half, maybe he'd have some power moments, they wouldn't come often. Now he has the highest OPS on the team with .764, which only newer members Robles and Arozarena have topped. He's got 18 homers and 49 RBIs, and he's been especially on target this month, where he's hit .308 in 7 September games with 6 RBIs and 2 homers. Having Raley, Jorge Polanco and Julio Rodriguez hitting now, despite earlier weak spots, is a good thing, and having a fuller, more reliable lineup gives this team everything it needs to compete.

But one of the things standing in their way is this Padres series, as the Padres are a very good team with arguably more momentum than they have now. The hitting was never a problem for the Padres this year, as what was already good in May with Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis is now even better with Machado, Bogaerts and Higgy all hitting. Jake Cronenworth, I think, may still disappoint people who want him to be the versatile utility contact guy he was when he came up, and seeing as he's already 30 despite debuting in 2020, he only has a handful of peak years left as it stands. But the slow pivot to power bat isn't the worth thing for Cronenworth, as his 16 homers and 78 RBIs are a very good show of offense, even if he's really not the best defender anymore. Arraez, Cronenworth and Donovan Solano are all having weak defensive seasons, but they are, in fact, all hitting well, which helps.

The Padres also have the important factor of having hydra-like regenerative abilities. Ha-Seong Kim got hurt last month, so the team went to rookie Mason McCoy, who's held his own as an infield replacement. Right when the rotation was getting hairy, Yu Darvish came back and continued his extremely strong 30s work. Jason Adam, Bryan Hoeing and Tanner Scott have made the bullpen possibly the best in the league. Hell, this team didn't even lose much ground when Tatis got hurt. They've got excellent depth, so many reinforcements, and have retained momentum excellently.

The Padres have a level of consistency this year that the Mariners wish they have, but the Mariners have the better pitching staff and are dangerous in the clutch. No matter how this series goals, it'll definitely have ramifications on just how both seasons end.

Coming Tomorrow- Red Sox fans were sad when Dominic Smith was released, but the man who replaced him made this sadness pretty short-lived.

Missouri Loves Company

 

Paul deJong vexes me. He always has, and I'm pretty sure he always will at this rate. 

For a few years, with the Cardinals, he was a consistent, surprising infield bat, with an incredible 2019 season, defensive perks, and an ability to hit for power. Then after a while he completely fell off, and for a few years he just...couldn't get a damned thing done at the plate. The Cardinals cut him last year, he bopped along, wound up starting for the last place White Sox this year and doing well, then was surprise upgrade by the Royals. And at that point he starts playing amazingly and supplanting a killer playoff case.

Now...I may be pulling this out of my ass. But Paul deJong fell apart around the same time the Cardinals did, bided his time and wound up on a much better, upwardly rising Missouri team. Perhaps this was his plan all along. 

With the Royals, deJong has become a flexible, versatile infield bat, who's already hitting .244 with 6 homers and 15 RBIs. deJong is also close to his second 30-homer year, and first since 2019. He's just six away, and seeing as he hit 18 in four months it's not unheard of for him to hit another 6 this month. deJong has made for a nice platoon at third with Maikel Garcia, and has added to the Royals' infield flexibility in general, as they plug Yuli Gurriel in at 1st to cover for Vinnie Pasquantino. It feels like he has more power as a member of this unit than he did in St. Louis.

Which is funny, because the Cardinals, after years of cycling different parts and progressions of their organization around, seem to be locking in for a lot of positions. Brendan Donovan seems to be the answer at 2nd, and is having another strong season defensively. Michael Siani seems to be the answer at CF, as he had an unexpected breakout season there this year. And Jordan Walker and Victor Scott are still getting chances at the corner positions. Meaning what was going to be the feel-good Cardinals story of the year, Tommy Pham returning to hit for contact, got lopped off at the knees when Pham got DFA'd.

So now Pham's joined deJong in Kansas City, which is kinda fitting. I see them both as members of the late-2010s Cardinals regime, both were on for a while and suddenly off for even longer, both had clutch moments like you wouldn't believe. Pham's currently hitting .296 as a Royal, with 4 RBIs in 7 games. This is Pham's seventh team in three years. One might get the sense from that, as well as the fact that he picked a fight with Joc Pederson over something as silly as fantasy football, that people don't enjoy having Tommy Pham on their team, and I think the fact that he's performed WELL for all seven of those teams speaks to the contrary. Pham isn't exactly a babyface type MLB character, his heel turn was expected. But he can still contact hit like hell, and he's still a crucial piece no matter where he plays. Pham has 9 different MLB teams under his belt. He's 36 and hitting competently. I say he keeps going. 

The Cardinals are looking like they're gonna finish the year without a playoff appearance, all while across the state the Royals have enough of a youth movement, and enough pure power, to propel them to a wild card spot. It's a welcome changing of the guard, and it says more about Matt Quatraro's ability to build an inherited team than it does Oli Marmol's. 

Coming Tonight: The Rays traded him for a contact bat. Without realizing they have enough contact bats and they really should hang onto some power bats. 

Follow the Money Mike

 

The Braves and Mets, with three and a half weeks left to go, are dead even. A team that began the season with everyone, and a team that began the season a punchline, are tied in the wild card standings. The last month of the season will decide who gets the last playoff spot and gets to play a team that very well could be the Brewers in a wild card series. The stakes couldn't be higher. If the Mets lose, they managed to undo the goodwill of the entire fanbase by not making the next leap from novelty to runaway.

...whereas if the Braves lose a year after a monolithic regular season, they may never recover. If you have your best players under team control til the end of the decade, a Cy Young performance from a guy who's always been a bridesmaid his whole career, an 100-RBI season from a guy everybody wrote off, and two excellent seasons from starters who weren't even supposed to make the team, and you don't make the playoffs, then what are you even doing? 

Injuries have dulled the point of the Braves this year. Without Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Spencer Strider and Austin Riley, there's just not as much of a punch. Michael Harris is back, which is nice, and he does have 15 RBIs and 4 homers since coming back, but...he's not hitting for average. Orlando Arcia's season is a disappointment after last season's ASG campaign. Same with Sean Murphy, he's hitting around .200 and seems to just not be on this year. Matt Olson's got 25 home runs, which is nice, but last season he hit 54. And quite obviously Bryce Elder has struggled to find his 2023 mojo. 

Like, it is nice that the pitching, for the most part, has kept things moving, people like Sale, Fried, Lopez and Schwellenbach are keeping offenses down. But this offense can only do so much without its core intact. You have Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela, Ramon Laureano and Adam Duvall trying to contribute something and not really doing much. There's only two people on this team, active, with more than 50 RBIs and 20 home runs. And it's Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson. It can't just be on those guys to keep the offense going, this isn't New York.

The Braves are still favored to take the spot right now, because they're built better, and have better overall luck than the Mets. But I think if you asked your asked your average sports fan, they'd want the Braves to take the fall. They're do. The Mets sliding into their space would be a great underdog story, especially in a year where the Braves don't really deserve the glory. So with all these games left to play, there's no telling who'll be standing on the spot when the season ends, but if it is the Braves, they're gonna need to do a lot of lifting to prove themselves in a postseason of titans.

Coming Tomorrow- One of those players who I can never tell when he's gonna be back on. He was miserable the last two years, and now a competitor's using his hot streak to their advantage.

A Big Eflin Deal

 

I was thinking about something yesterday as Connor Norby hit two home runs against Seth Johnson in Miami. Norby, an Orioles prospect traded for Trevor Rogers due to having no space to play in Baltimore, was succeeding for the Marlins, while Johnson, an Orioles prospect traded for Austin Hays due to having no space to play in Baltimore, failed to even strike anybody out. 

An Orioles prospect teeing off an Orioles prospect...at the expense of the Philadelphia Phillies. And then I thought about it, and...Zach Eflin, Seranthony Dominguez, Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto are now playing for Baltimore, and some of the only prospects the Orioles gave up this year are actively hurting the Phillies. So maybe THAT was why they traded for Trevor Rogers. So it would set off a domino effect that ended in misery for Phillies fans. 

...shame the Ravens didn't benefit from this plan, but there ya go.

Anyway, despite sitting a half game behind the Yankees for the division, the Orioles are looking very good rounding the last few weeks of the season. A lot of the momentum from the oncoming former Philadelphia residents may have helped. As I predicted, Seranthony Dominguez figured out whatever was ailing him in Philly and has a 2.76 ERA in 16 appearances. Zach Eflin's first six starts as a member of the Orioles have been excellent, going 5-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 38 Ks. He's reaching legitimacy he only flirted with in Tampa this year, and is the kind of rotation addition the O's wish Jack Flaherty was last year. Craig Kimbrel does continue to be an issue in the ninth, but every so often he'll channel his former glory for a save. 

And now aiding the already strong central core of the lineup are people like Eloy Jimenez, who's hitting .268 and has become a beloved power player off the bench, and Austin Slater, who's .295 and is doing the exact kind of sneaky contact stuff that made him a favorite in San Francisco. Plus, both Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson are chasing 40 home runs. Two Orioles from very different parts of the rebuild, uniting to hit home runs and have excellent seasons. Colton Cowser really has turned into a nice everyday outfield bat, and he might get some ROY votes this year. And Holliday, even as he does run from his April stats, does seem like the guy going forward. 

The Orioles are good right now, though they have lost some recent games against mediocre opponents. A lot of divisional matchups lay ahead, including against the Yankees and Red Sox, and by the time they finish with the Twins they'll have needed to sustain some section of the momentum. I do not want to see these guys make another easy exit from the playoffs. They are too much fun for this. 

Coming Tonight: As a late injury return, he could be the difference-maker in the quest for the last playoff spot.