Five Enter, One Remains

 

I really do think the Tigers' rotation press conference prior to the season has the same energy as Aaron Rodgers sprinting out carrying the American flag and immediately tearing his achilles. The moment looks grand, the image looks cinematic, and then the reality hits. Seeing Justin Verlander, Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize standing together, going 'we're gonna be the Tigers' rotation this year', looks nice, and sounds nice. But then the rubber hits the road and you realize just how far the image was from how things really work. 

Let's go over how that rotation panned out. Tarik Skubal had great numbers, was traded to the Dodgers and is looking to compete like he never has before. Casey Mize did well enough despite an injury, got traded to the Padres and is still trying to regain his leverage. Jack Flaherty's season stunk of fatigue, and he's missed time since July recovering. Justin Verlander pitched 1 inning, gave up 5 earned runs, complained of discomfort and has been hurt ever since. The goal is to get him back for one last start in Detroit, which is more of a tribute measure than anything given the season's lost at this point, but considering how he held up in San Francisco last year, everyone was expecting so much more.

So the only person left from that press conference in March who's still on this team is Framber Valdez. And he's decided to deliver his most mediocre season to date, after a legendary run with Houston. He's got a 4 ERA, a 10-10 record, 121 Ks and a 1.363 WHIP. Without the Astros' offense behind him, he has been leveled. He still goes deep into games but the runs have piled up, and the spark has been diluted. Every so often you will get a classic Valdez quality start, but this was not the ideal first year for this contract.

The good news is that a halfway decent starting rotation sprouted out from where the other four spots lay vacant. Keider Montero and Troy Melton have had star making performances this year, with 8 and 9 wins apiece, ERAs in the mid-3s and 2.50 range, and the dominance that, ideally, Skubal and Mize would have kept giving. Jackson Jobe's healthy again, and he's got a 3.89 ERA and 34 Ks in 34 innings. Hopefully he'll be a lot stronger next year. Drew Anderson has been starting recently, and he's honestly not bad, with a 2.36 ERA and 43 Ks in 10 starts. Maybe not as immediately lauded as other returns from the eastern hemisphere this year [mostly thinking of Anthony Kay and Foster Griffin], but he's played a strong role in this rotation legging things out.

Beyond that, the Tigers evened out as a lower-tier team this year without a comfy rotation behind them, and without a really strong division of contact hitters. You're at least seeing Kevin McGonigle, Dillon Dingler, Max Clark and Riley Greene cementing themselves for the next stage, and all four of those guys did what they needed to this year. If a decent enough team can form around them and lead to less dissonance, and less waiting for 5 different people to start hitting, then the Tigers can muddle out of the basement. If not...the 2024 run may have been a fluke after all.

Coming Tomorrow- An under-the-radar, contact-friendly outfielder on a team where two different guys have over 100 RBIs.

Marlin of Error

 

It's as simple as this: the Marlins, at one point, had a shot of crashing the postseason. Then they kept losing games and literally every other marginal competitor passed them. The Pirates and Cardinals probably aren't making the playoffs either, but they passed them. So now the Marlins are 8-5 in September, back below .500, nothing else to do this season really but be thankful they weren't a last place team. 

I can say with certainty that we know more about this team than we did before the season began. There were a lot of beginnings of threads last season that we weren't sure were gonna lead to anything in 2026, but Max Meyer, Javier Sanoja, Heriberto Hernandez, Tyler Phillips, Janson Junk and Jakob Marsee all have crucial roles on this team as it evolves. Sanoja was once just a decent enough super-ute who hit well only against the Phils. Now he's the everyday 3rd baseman, is a .300 hitter and has 63 RBIs, which isn't bad at all. Last year, Heriberto Hernandez was an okay hitter and a defensive liability, but now he's a much better power hitter, looking at the team's sole 25-homer year, and is better in left. Max Meyer, despite finishing with only half a season's worth of innings, proved he could carry the big games, and Sandy Alcantara proved he wasn't washed up. The biggest development was directing Tyler Phillips back towards a starting role, where he actually did a pretty decent job, with a 4.26 ERA, 5 wins and 63 Ks in 82 innings. I think he might be a good starting option going forward, as will Janson Junk, who had a 4.50 ERA in 111 innings. 

Now...will Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards continue to be the anchors? There I'm not sure. Lopez had an incredible season this year, with a 5.8 ERA, a league-leading 180 hits, a .300 average and 69 RBIs, plus 30 steals to boot. He excelled at nearly every facet of the game, and at 27 it could either be his apex season or the start of a strong run. I don't know if he's going to be THE guy for this team, but he's definitely helped exponentially, and some more seasons of this caliber would be the next step. Edwards is still a good piece but the fact that the Rays knew to give him up tells you he may never be THE guy. Maybe Marsee will do more heavy lifting next year, even if his second half was way better than his first. I think the real issue is whether or not Kyle Stowers is ever gonna touch his 2025 season [itself injury-shortened]. That's kind of why the Orioles gave up, they saw the floor and not the ceiling. I think if the Marlins are at all concerned they'll make a move this offseason but I think he's a bounce-back candidate, just like I think Owen Caissie just needs to grow into things.

The thing that will make me feel a lot better about the long term success of this team is proof of a working rotation model. Because ideally, if given the year, the combination of Eury Perez, Max Meyer, Ryan Gusto, Janson Junk and Tyler Phillips may not be enough to get things going. Alcantara's probably leaving in free agency, that's fine I guess. I'd love if there was another young starting option. It was supposed to be Robby Snelling, that did not pan out. There's gotta be somebody immediately next. Is it Karson Milbrandt after he figures out triple-A? Or Thomas White once he can stay healthy? One of those guys, or both, could swap in and help things greatly. Maybe a cheap free agent, someone who can eat innings? There's gotta be somebody. 

The Marlins are closer to competing than you might expect. They just need to build on this season and not run from what worked.

Coming Tonight: This was his first season for a team that didn't have a probable shot at the postseason. It wasn't that great.

You Two Again

 

The AL playoff race, despite the last two or so spots being in question, is solidified bracket-wise. We know the Rays have a bye, and we know the likely winner of the AL Central will have a bye, probably the White Sox. And we know that the winner of the AL West will play the third wild card team, which means right now that it'll be Astros-Guardians, unless the Guardians win the division, then it'll be Astros-White Sox, unless the Astros somehow get the other bye, in which case it'll be Guardians-White Sox again. Far more boring. Let's keep the Astros from getting a bye, they don't really deserve one.

All that said, what's been made very clear, despite the inefficiency of the other two divisions' leaders, is that the Yankees and Red Sox not only have the first two wild card spots essentially locked up, but they will be playing each other. At this rate, no amount of shitting the bed will bring the Guardians, or even the Blue Jays, Rangers or Orioles, any closer to the AL East scrum. So there we are again. Second year in a row, Yanks-Sox first round of the playoffs, when logically it could be an ALDS matchup or an ALCS matchup.

That's how out of whack the AL is. The Red Sox are the third best team in the AL East, and they're not favored to advance, and they're still better than all the other AL teams. Which means...if they wanted to, and they absolutely will not do this...but they could throw the last two weeks of the season. Lose their last few games. Win the occasional one to stay on pace. And ensure someone else gets that 2 seed. Then, they piledrive the Astros, ensuring I don't have to watch a Sox-Stros ALCS this year, and then get a top seeded team and make their way up through there. I do get that the fun of it is watching someone like the Astros, Guardians or White Sox build momentum and become a deep playoff team, but I really don't want to see the Astros do that again. It's happened enough times. The Rangers technically could lap them but...do you see the Rangers doing that this year? I'd love to, but they've been in 'keel over and die' formation for 2 months now. 

Anyway. The Red Sox, provided they don't tank for a better seeding, will have to play the Yankees in the playoffs, and it will be close. Right now, even if the momentum has slowed slightly, the Sox still have a lot going for them. Payton Tolle has only gotten stronger, with an immaculate inning denoting his latest knockout start, aside from his 3 ERA and 166 Ks. Sonny Gray once again looks like a viable postseason starter, with 17 wins; so does Ranger Suarez, with a 3.33 ERA and 130 Ks. Aroldis Chapman's once again a closing success, and Garrett Withlock is once again one of the most effective relief specialists in the game. Guys like IKF, Mickey Gasper, Nick Sogard and Jahmai Jones are providing small roles and big moments. You're even seeing Trevor Story slowly get things rolling once again as the everyday shortstop.

My main problem with this team right now is the lack of a central key piece. You'd think it'd be Willson Contreras right now, but that attitude problem is beginning to slow him down. Yes, 26 homers, 76 RBIs, all well and good, but he's been suspended this year, he was acting up in Triple-A, and who knows what'll be next. Jarren Duran is a similar story, because this would be a terrific time for him to get something going, but he's still not hitting for average, he keeps striking out, and he feels like he's regressed, even after last year. 20 homers and 69 RBIs are fine, but he's not THE guy right now, in the same way that Ben Rice or Aaron Judge can be the Yanks, or Junior Caminero can be the Rays. The closest approximation is Wilyer Abreu, but is he the anchor or is he just having a good season? Roman Anthony, Adley Rutschman, Trevor Story and Jarren Duran are all in position to really carry the team and none of them are. 

October would be a good time to start. Or sooner. I'm content with the fact that this could be the Sox team that outruns the Yankees, because on paper I don't see it, and those are always the teams that do it. We're better, they're sneakier. We're built better but they're more clutch. I've got two more weeks to come to terms with it, then there'll be another 3 days of discourse, and then we'll do the series and I'll just hope it doesn't hurt too much.

Coming Tomorrow- He plays most positions, and even pitches, but this year he's finally found a starting spot and might be through with his super utility days.

How Dare You Want More

 

I think it is a very big deal that the Padres, despite the droughts in production or pitching luck or anything, were able to persist in the postseason conversation this year. They were never going to be a first place team, because the Dodgers were always going to be better. They were never a lock for 2nd because of the D-Backs. It took Fernando Tatis a while to start hitting home runs and now he's got 21. It's a testament to the persistence of this team that they stayed in it, to the point where they're very much in the race for that last wild card spot, despite so much of it just not working.

Like...there's a lot of half-seasons that were good, but not a lot of full campaigns were. Other than Ty France, Michael King, Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon, everybody either crapped out after the first half or didn't start til the second. Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Walker Buehler and Luis Campusano are finishing with halfway decent seasons, and it's doing a lot to erase their struggles from earlier on. Machado is hitting .221 now, but was hitting .190 for most of the first half. If he didn't also have 27 homers and 82 RBIs, seasonably great numbers for the future Hall of Famer, he'd get a lot more criticism. Same with Merrill, whose 2nd half has erased any doubts people had about his trajectory. Merrill hit 25 homers and 82 RBIs, plus 26 stolen bases. If the Padres make the postseason, Merrill might be the most dangerous part of the team. 

I also think the bullpen has built on 2025, which is weird to say about a team that had 4 relievers make the all-star team. Miller's elite, but we knew that. Beyond that, Adrian Morejon's having another fantastic year as a setup man/relief specialist, with 9 wins, 100 strikeouts, a 2.70 ERA and a 1.8 WAR. Morejon is commanding, consistent, and reliable, and since joining the bullpen full time in 2024, he's been one of the most crucial pieces of these Padres teams. Without Jason Adam or Robert Suarez this year, he needed to step up, and he very much did. Yuki Matsui, Bradgley Rodriguez and Wandy Peralta have provided stability behind him.

There's gonna be some worry about how the rotation holds up, because Randy Vasquez is very streaky, Walker Buehler's not as good as he was in 2019, and Robbie Ray and Casey Mize have struggled since the deadline, but...Nick Pivetta just came back and he's been very strong, being part of two wins, and only allowing 2 runs. In a postseason scenario, it would be Michael King, Nick Pivetta and Robbie Ray, and that's honestly a pretty nice rotation. If Ray can firm up in the postseason, which seems likely, they could be a match for whoever they go against [probably Atlanta at this rate].

This only happens if they stay ahead of the Diamondbacks, which I honestly think is possible, given how much momentum they've built up in the past few weeks. They're 2.5 games up as the D-Backs are imploding, have the Rockies and Marlins all week, and hopefully by the time the Padres have to play their division rivals again to finish off the season, they'll have enough of a cushion to secure that postseason spot. I don't know how far they'll get, but...considering I didn't expect them to get this far, who knows.

Coming Tonight: He didn't have a very good season, as the centerpiece of a team needing a real homegrown hero. Luckily the team didn't need him to be great, they just needed him to be there. 

Woo Cares?

 

I don't understand it. I've been trying to understand it all year. With no avail. How a team like the Mariners, with as much talent as they had, could just refuse to win week after week. The Astros are likely winning the division, essentially unopposed, and it's happening not because the Astros were good, but because the Mariners were worse. I know I get shit for saying that, but sometimes a division win happens because someone loses harder than someone else wins. And that's the AL West. Like three teams losing extremely hard and one team winning by not losing as much. It's infuriating, but it works.

It sucks especially for someone like Bryan Woo, who is, in fact, trying. His second-to-last start against the A's was a 1-hit, 8-inning affair with 9 Ks. His last start against the A's wasn't too bad either, giving up 3 hits and a run but striking out 5 in 6 innings. He's just hitting his stride, and getting better as he goes along, getting over some of the fatigue that got his ERA to 4 in the first place. And he's probably not gonna be pitching in the postseason. On a better year this would be a ramp up. Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller would be ramping up rather than just rallying pretty much. 

And it does really feel like a lot of the recent Mariners goings-on are just a late rally before a demise. Kade Anderson's becoming a great MLB option, with a 4.30 ERA in 4 starts. Randy Arozarena got to 25 homers again, and is making his free agency case look quite good. J.P. Crawford is suddenly springing to life, hitting .333 this month with 6 RBIs in 12 games. Raleigh and Naylor are hitting after a year of not hitting. Michael Arroyo also seems to be a savvy choice at 2nd, though I'm not sure where he fits into the long term plan if Emerson and Donovan are expected to be back next year. But you look back and you realize that Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, Andres Munoz and Josh Naylor all gave very okay performances in a year where they were expected to do great things. Randy Arozarena and Cole Young carried this team, and they weren't supposed to. As good of a pitching year as this was, the lowest ERA in the rotation was Emerson Hancock's 3.57 [and he was throwing hurt for the last month or so], and everyone else, even Gilbert and Kirby and Woo, were in the 4 zone. Even the Astros have guys with ERAs lower than 3.50 right now. 

It's frustrating, because this team nearly made a World Series this year, and now they're 10 games under .500 with no shot at the playoffs. People will find a way to blame the people that didn't have anything to do with it. It wasn't Dan Wilson, it wasn't the GM, everybody really tried. But not having Raleigh at 100% this year, and having 3 months of very mediocre Julio Rodriguez stats, did not help. Next year needs to be better, or else they're gonna waste this regime's highest heights. 

Coming Tomorrow- He vetoed a trade to New York, and he seemed to know he'd do just fine staying where it was. 

Too Late for a Late Swell?

 

Out of nowhere today came the news that the Pirates are suddenly at .500 for the first time since midseason, and went 4 for 6 against the Chicago teams this week. There's two weeks left in the regular season, and the Pirates are 6 games back from the wild card spot, but...I dunno, I guess it's never too late.

What's helped has been the returns of several very crucial pieces of this team. Konnor Griffin just got activated, and his rookie year continues, though it'll only be a 300 at-bat year at this rate. Still had 22 steals, 27 RBIs, a .262 average, and hit his stride in May and June [right before the injury]. I think he's still kinda ramping back up to where he was, but he's welcome. Same with Ryan O'Hearn, who was hurt for 2 months and is now trying to make up for lost time. He's gonna finish the season, I'm assuming, with 20+ homers and 75+ RBIs, which is pretty good [only Brandon Lowe has more RBIs], and he'll definitely be around next year for more damage. And now Oneil Cruz is back and winding back up, with 18 homers, 63 RBIs, 27 stolen bases and a .273 average, probably the most outwardly lethal season we've gotten from Cruz, which makes it all the more insulting that it was a small sample size again. But all of those pieces are back, and doing their best for the late push.

Yet, concerningly, they seem to have traded off with some other guys who are just now ending their seasons. Braxton Ashcraft got hurt last week and is out for the year, after providing the Pirates' best pitching performance with a 3.65 ERA, 14 wins and 173 strikeouts. The team also just lost star rookie Esmerlyn Valdez, who was able to hit 17 homers and 47 RBIs in 72 games, always a very nice aspect. They also lost Kirby Yates after a pretty strong couple weeks in Pittsburgh. And while Paul Skenes isn't technically injured, it's clear this is a down year due to fatigue from the very strong 2024 and 2025 campaigns, and the hope is he can bulldoze through and pop out way better next year [you know, the way pitchers used to]. The velocity is still not where it was last year, but Skenes still has 10 wins, a 3.78 ERA and 185 Ks. This is a very human year for Skenes, and people assumed he wouldn't have any of those. But here it is.

I applaud this Pirates team for actually getting somewhere with what seemed like the bricks for a competitor, even if it's probably not leading to a postseason spot. Nick Gonzales, Brandon Lowe, Spencer Horwitz, Bryan Reynolds, Esmerlyn Valdez, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, Rafael Flores and Jared Triolo all played like firm pieces of a great team. Them not getting there has to do with injury issues, Skenes's inconsistency and the fact that the Brewers and Cubs were just better teams. The hope is that the team doesn't need to get bailed out by a deadline push next year and can actively grow over time and emerge as an under-the-radar threat in a small market. A full year of Konnor Griffin could do that. He's only 20 and the sky seems so high for him.

Coming Tomorrow- A very strong starter for a team that is gonna kick itself for years for not making this season happen.

The Twins vs. Long Game Thinking

 

So by all accounts, the 2026 Minnesota Twins did not succeed. They surprised everybody by coasting in third for the majority of the year, had great performances and a nice array of strong players, DIDN'T SELL AT THE DEADLINE, and even bought, but...they're not a playoff team, and the road for them to get there was always gonna be relatively steep. The Iowa loss was the first crack in the armor, and they never recovered. So despite the buying, and the curation of a decent team, this isn't gonna lead to anything immediate.

Unless immediate success was not the point. They got some disposable pieces at the deadline but one of them, Dean Kremer, is not disposable and could stay with the team as a starting option going forward. Jeff Hoffman's also on a multi-year deal and is here til 2027. Joe Ryan and Josh Bell both have mutual options, and while Ryan will probably decline [unless he really feels they're on the precipice], Bell might stick around considering he can play DH everyday and seems to have gotten his power hitting groove back. Minter's leaving in free agency but maybe he comes back on a relatively cheap deal. The big pieces of this team are not leaving yet. Buxton, Larnach, Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Ober and Caratini are all sticking around. Maybe this team can still develop if enough of the core remains, and could compete sooner than later.

I'm not the only person realizing this. The Twins, in the last month, have called up a lot of really strong prospects that could play a huge role in the team as early as last year. Kaelen Culpepper is the highest-profile one, he's stepped in at SS and is hitting .286 with 3 homers and 11 RBIs in 29 games. Walker Jenkins just came up, and while he's not hitting all that well yet, he's 21 and capable of great things, so perhaps it takes more immediate MLB development. They just brought Emmanuel Rodriguez up yesterday and he responded with a towering homer immediately, so that's very good news. Plus both Mike Paredes and Mick Abel will be back next year in full force, and Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis will continue leveling up towards where they should be. 

That's the thing that the Twins realized before a lot of people this year: they're way closer than you might think. Going into this year, they were very much a 'what do they have left' team. They gave away a lot of big pieces, sold high last deadline and didn't seem committed to competing, but the young core was just building, and arguably did a ton more to inherit the team than the Tigers' and Royals' this summer. Maybe they vie for the division lead next year, and try and take down Cleveland in a waning period. It's sort of within reach.

If there is Spring Training next year, I might go and catch some games. My uncle lives near where the Twins play, and I always enjoy checking out the facility. I am wondering what the feel is gonna be. If there will be optimism, or if it'll be a stab in the dark like this year. That's a fascinating thought for 2027.

Coming Tonight: He was leading in the Rookie of the Year conversations. Then he got hurt. He's come back in time to try to help his team make one last, possibly futile, postseason push.