Arch Arrival

 You know, 30 years ago, if a guy spent his first three seasons in the majors striking out 100 times without hitting anywhere above .200 and then suddenly becomes a consistent and powerful hero, it's because of one of two things. Either he's juicing...or he's just a late bloomer. And there weren't really a lot of late bloomers in the 90s because all the late bloomers just took steroids. 

But now that the development periods are different, you either get people who get called up in their early 20s and waste no time, people who don't get called up til their mid-to-late 20s and make it count, or people who get called up in their early 20s, struggle for a couple years and then after the MLB development time lock into place. And even if I prefer players get called up in their early 20s, we have seen that more frequently nowadays. Casey Mize was like that, Jo Adell was like that, Nico Hoerner was like that, and now Jordan Walker is like that. For three years he was absolutely unfit for the majors, and struggled to do anything at the plate. Now he is 25, and he's hit 7 home runs in 15 games. Keep in mind that his previous single season home run total is 16, from his rookie season in 2023.

Just when the novelty was running out, Jordan Walker's apparently arrived. And that really says a lot about the Cardinals. They know people were just giving up on them, and they're still finding ways to surprise people. Jordan Walker hitting home runs left and right is one way, Gorman and Burleson forming a pretty solid power core finally is another. The Cardinals don't have a ton to work with this year, but they're still not completely out of the conversation.

First of all, as was becoming evident last season, the bullpen. Riley O'Brien, JoJo Romero, George Soriano and Gordon Graceffo have had terrific springs so far, with O'Brien and Romero having yet to give up an earned run. O'Brien has also moved into a consistent 9th inning spot, and that's gone super well so far. Soriano is looking way better in St. Louis than he did in Miami. And even if it's very clear that something is very wrong with Matt Svanson, the core of this bullpen is definitely enough to really rest on. Getting McGreevy, Liberatore and Leahy to provide more consistent starting protection is the next step, but considering this is a year where, for the first time in ages, the Cardinals really don't have a proven ace, I think it's logical that this group takes some time to find itself. Who knows, it could be somebody like Tekoah Roby, Tink Hence, Brycen Mautz or Cooper Hjerpe. Then again I'm mostly just waiting for Jurrangelo Cijntje to come up cause I wanna say his name. Ooh, those dutch pronunciations are fun!

I think with J.J. Wetherholt in this lineup, the Cardinals stand more of a chance in the long run. If Wetherholt and Winn are gonna be there for a while, that's a perfectly respectable foundation to work around, and the pieces are gonna fall into place. I think it does mean Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera might need to go at the deadline, because I don't know if they'll be able to break even by July. But it does show more optimism and forward momentum than the team had in the last few years. 

Who knows, with an organization as well-run as the Cardinals' maybe it'll take far less than 11 years to rebound from a stunning playoff loss to the Phillies.

Coming Tonight: One of the best power-hitting catchers in the AL. Very glad he's out of New York for a bit. 

Cosmic Rays

 

Y'know...a week ago the Yankees could have scored runs off of Nick Martinez.

I dunno, man. You think you have a team figured out and then they can't do anything against Aaron Civale, then can't mount a comeback against a clearly mediocre Rays team. The Rays' bullpen has been vile this year, and still David Bednar goes 'watch this' and ruins everything.

What can't be disputed, even if I'd try to whine about how undeserving the Rays are of a .500 record even if they outperformed the Yankees at home, is the talent emanating from Chandler Simpson. THAT is a leadoff hitter. Get on base, hits triples, steals, gets home. Everything you want. The man is a contact machine, and he could ride a .300+ average for a while at this rate. 'Pesky' is a good word for someone like Simpson, and it's clearer to me how tough of an out he's gonna be in every subsequent Yankees series. At least last year the speedy tough out guy on the Rays could get traded to New York midseason and wind up as a fun utility guy here. Simpson's gonna be a Ray for at least another two years, maybe three if the Rays can't find a good enough trade partner in time. 

I say that, yet they still haven't managed to get rid of Yandy Diaz, and they're better for it. I never would have thought THIS GUY would be a valuable veteran power bat. I saw him as a fill-in infield guy playing for Cleveland in 2017 and I didn't really think too much of him, and then he goes to Tampa and becomes a white-hot power hitting corner. Diaz is currently hitting .362 with 21 hits, 14 RBIs and 3 homers. I know that the Rays expected someone like Aranda or Caminero to be off to a hotter power start, but they'll take more Yandy Diaz production, I know that. And admittedly Jonathan Aranda has 3 homers and 14 RBIs himself, so he's just heating up.

I think the perks of this Rays team get overlooked because it's so easy to see the flaws. Once again, they have no choice but to start Taylor Walls at shortstop, meaning they're wasting like 3 at-bats a game. The Cedric Mullins experiment is not working out yet, and he may in fact just be past his prime. The bullpen is still a major problem area, as even in today's win Mason Englert let an Aaron Judge homer by and nearly wrecked the game. The days of having a murderer's row of sneaky, unhittable specialists all in a line are gone; now these guys are just trying to keep a job. Only Hunter Bigge and Jesse Scholtens have ERAs below 2.50, and Scholtens arguably should be starting. At the very least Rasmussen, Matz and Martinez have been solid so far, but considering that Martinez was already a 'break in case of emergency' starter, and Ryan Pepiot's missing time, them having to reach into depth options IN APRIL isn't a great sign. This is why you don't trade Taj Bradley.

A sweep of the Yankees is a good source of dopamine, but it's still early, and this is still a weaker, flawed Rays team. Unless this really is a moment of pure turnaround, the Rays need to come to terms with their limitations or face another really rough July.

Coming Tomorrow- After three years of 'is he for real', 7 homers in 3 and a half weeks seem to provide a definitive answer to that.

Some Bounce, Some Don't

 

When you're dealing with two notoriously all-time-bad teams, your immediate inclination is to judge which one is worse solely on which one returns to something resembling 'good' faster. I think about how bad the early 2010s Astros were, and it took them til 2014 or 2015 to craft something palpable. The Rays, meanwhile, went from a 4th place team in '07 to a 1st place juggernaut in 2008. It really depends on organizational stuff, what's baking in the minors, what the team can retain, who's ready when. Lot of factors go into it.

So watching the Rockies and White Sox this season is definitely interesting, because you're waiting to see how long it's gonna take both teams to reform and contend again. With the amount of time passed since the White Sox bottomed out vs. the Rockies, you'd think Chicago would be progressing further, but not even Pope Leo shining on them could make the team look any better right now. 

The depth that was forming last year with this White Sox team seems to be evaporating. Brooks Baldwin, Mike Vasil and Kyle Teel, three signs of growth from last year, are all hurt right now. And the roster is simply wearing thin. The starting pitching seems even more pedestrian than before, and now that Shane Smith has been demoted and Jonathan Cannon is out for a bit, the team is down to Sean Burke, Davis Martin and Anthony Kay as viable starting options. Martin currently looks the best, he's 2-0 with 12 Ks through 3 starts, but that's a 5 man line for most other teams. Kay has a 2.45 ERA through 3 starts, and though Erick Fedde exists as a stark reminder that the post-international-leagues bump can wear off fast, he's still being relied upon. But beyond that...lots of openers and replacement level guys. It's not a great look, and it looks even worse when you line up the Sox' hitters, where really only Munetaka Murakami has done anything. Meidroth and Vargas have made some headway but the team's hitting .204 cumulatively. It's not pretty.

You can hope they improve over time, or as they get better pieces back, but it even looks like a setback from last year, which still wasn't terrific.

The Rockies, meanwhile, have shown immediate improvement over their dismal 2025 numbers. Some incredible things you're hearing. The bullpen kept runs down during a homestead. There's multiple starters, including Tomoyuki Sugano, who are really impressive. The young kids hanging around for starts last year are actually earning them now. So far the team's best hitter has been T.J. Rumfield, a career minor leaguer snagged in a deal that sent Angel Chivilli to the Yankees['s minor league system]. Rumfield jumped right in at 1st and is hitting .326 with 14 hits, 8 RBIs and 2 homers in 13 games. 

It's wild to see a core begin to come together for this team when nothing was happening last year. Troy Johnston has joined the power core and is looking like a definite everyday option [while Jordan Beck is looking less and less like one]. Mickey Moniak is hitting all sorts of homers off the bench. Tovar and Goodman still like decent organizational cornerstones right now. Kyle Freeland is still a very nice starting option, and has a 2.30 ERA in 3 starts. And somehow the team figured out that Antonio Senzatela doesn't completely shit the bed if you bring him out as a bullpen option. I knew the Rockies' pen had some nice options, but seeing all of Jimmy Herget, Jaden Hill, Victor Vodnik, Juan Mejia and Brennan Bernardino all looking genuinely great out there is a surprising, and excellent, sign. 

It is odd that I see the Rockies doing more this season than the White Sox, especially considering how the pitching could turn at any minute in that stadium, but the Rockies just seem better put together right now, and have more actual strengths. It could evaporate at any second, I'm aware, but the way things are going now, I see the Rockies looking 'good' sooner than the White Sox. 

Coming Tonight: A guy who absolutely refuses to be an easy out. Naturally he's playing my team this weekend. 

Not The Hit They Had In Mind

 

I know I just said this about the Orioles, but the Angels are a deeply strange team this year. While the Orioles' strangeness is helping them stay good...I'm still not entirely sure where the Angels' strangeness is taking them. Anywhere?

First of all, I don't think the Angels are competing this year. Far too much empty space going on for that. If Jack Kochanowicz and Reid Detmers are in pivotal starting positions and Oswald Peraza is, I assume, the everyday 2B option, then clearly we're a few drafts away. And that's not even mentioning that the contracted guys, like Yusei Kikuchi, Yoan Moncada, Drew Pomeranz and Jorge Soler are not pulling their weight. The most notable thing Jorge Soler has done in two seasons in Anaheim has been trying to punch a guy for throwing at his head when he's notoriously proficient in hitting off of him. Remember when he hit 40 home runs consistently? Can he, like, do that anymore?

The stranger story is the people who are zooming to life and leading the team nearly out of nowhere. Jo Adell, last week, had a night where he robbed three straight Mariners home runs in iconic, SI-spread fashion, and that should be an indication to anyone that after years of waiting, Adell is finally a viable MLB option. His strong 2025 helped, but now he's finally showing how multifaceted he can be, complete with some contact moments this year, some defensive moments, and, yes, a home run or two. I think the Angels were expecting Adell to be this guy from the jump but the relief is palpable nonetheless.

And then you have Jose Soriano, giving this team a homegrown ace at last. The Angels have had to rely on signings like Tyler Anderson and Yusei Kikuchi to head up the rotation for the longest time, with homegrown guys like Sandoval and Canning trying to pick up the slack but inevitably getting hurt. Finally, Soriano is THE guy for this team, and right now he's 3-0 with a 1.2 WAR, 21 Ks and only 1 earned run in his first three starts. If we can eventually get Grayson Rodriguez, Caden Dana and George Klassen to file in behind him and make up a young, dominant backbone in addition to the help Kikuchi has provided, this team could be in better shape going forward.

Aside from that, this is still Mike Trout's team, and this is still Zach Neto's lineup to lead. The Angels have taken two from Seattle and two from Houston so far this season, they're holding their own in a tough division, and they've somehow gotten Jordan Romano to find his control again. Even for a year with low expectations, things are starting out pretty alright for this team, and it's better than the alternative.

Coming Tomorrow- The Phillies gave up on him, the Yankees gave up on him, and the worst team in the league was conveniently in the market for a corner infield bat.

2026 in Getting Out of Tampa

 
The cycle continues. The Rays get something together, then realize they have to play their players, trade people away, and then once again the Rays get something together. Absolutely exhausting.

Right now the Rays have only 1 guy left from the 2020 A.L. Championship season, namely Yandy Diaz. Last season had 3, and two of them were actively either dealt or cut. Now it's down to one. Occasionally you hear talks of Junior Caminero getting a longterm extension, possibly Jonathan Aranda, but nothing permanent comes down. I'll give the Rays credit for signing more free agents than usual, as Steven Matz, Nick Martinez, Cedric Mullins and Jake Fraley wound up here in signings. But that's not distracting from the fact that any homegrown talent is there to attract trade promise and net them even more young, controllable players. This has been the MO since the Kevin Cash years, pure small ball without overextending. The few times they actually sign players, they gamble incorrectly, like with Wander Franco.

And then when people finally get out of Tampa, and get paid...then it's easier for them to have breakout seasons, or even just strong years in general. You're seeing that all around. Taj Bradley got dealt last year for Griffin Jax, and so far he's been one of the best players on a rough Twins roster, going 2-0 with 22 Ks in his first 3 starts. Every bit uncomfortable and unpolished Bradley felt in Tampa is gone, and he's more confident than ever in Minneapolis. Then you have Brandon Lowe, who had another great season last year, then got traded to the Pirates and has been extremely helpful for them this year, with 4 RBIs and 3 home runs in 11 games, in addition to some traditionally strong infield play. Lowe looked to be one of the Rays' last two veterans, and now he's playing for a team that actually seems to be going somewhere.

Sifting through each of the other rosters, it is very easy to find players the Rays gave up on to meet a budget quota. And while we're here...

Angels: Josh Lowe, a late offseason trade loss thanks to a strong desire for Gavin Lux. Lowe was a fairly regular producer for the Rays, and with the Angels he's been slower to start but still getting enough reps.

Astros: Isaac Paredes, one of the Rays' more baffling midseason trades, is the starting third baseman in Houston, and already has 4 doubles and 5 RBIs in a prime position in this lineup. 

A's: Jeffrey Springs, in case none of you are aware, nearly no-hit my team today. That happening now...just seems way too on the nose. The Rays got rid of him a year ago after they grew tired of waiting for him to come back to full power, and the A's actually gave him some money. Only a matter of time before his arm gives out again though. 

Brewers: Jake Bauers was last with the Rays back before any of these people whose departures have pissed me off were even with the team, really. He got sent to Cleveland in the deal that traded Yandy Diaz to Tampa. Since then his career has died and come back, and now he's a handy bench bat with Milwaukee. 

Cardinals: Matthew Liberatore was a longtime Rays organizational staple before he was dealt for Jose Martinez [and also another guy named Arozarena]. He finally made it to the bigs, and is the closest thing the team has to an ace right now. 

Dodgers: Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell, most notably.

Giants: One of the most egregious ones was Willy Adames, traded during a peak season solely to make room for Wander Franco. Then, when he was suspended and they were left with Taylor Walls and a clearl-not-ready-yet Junior Caminero, they had no one to blame but themselves.

Mariners: Lots, honestly. Randy Arozarena, Luke Raley, Cooper Criswell. Arozarena, like Paredes, was one of those 'you're just doing this to avoid paying him' deals, and while Arozarena has found more success in Seattle, he really should have become a Rays hero. 

Marlins: Xavier Edwards was another infield prospect that just couldn't find room, then got dealt and found playing time and his mojo. Pete Fairbanks was a truly unfair post-2025 cut, and had been doing well enough in a closing role for the Marlins before going on paternity leave. 

Nationals: Zack Littell had become a really nice starting piece for the Rays, and for his troubles he was dealt to the Reds. Now the Nats have him, and he's been serviceable. 

Orioles: Andrew Kittredge ended last year with the Cubs, yet still had a desire to return to the Orioles, because he seemed to enjoy it so much in the first half. That's not even mentioning folks like Shane Baz and Zach Eflin, two pieces of a near-powerful rotation that the Rays had no incentive to keep. 

Padres: You may recall that Jake Cronenworth was a Rays farmhand before his inclusion in the Hunter Renfroe deal. Dodged that bullet, I guess, or else, like Renfroe, he might be a journeyman by now.

Pirates: Jake Mangum and Mason Montgomery were also sent to Tampa in the Lowe deal. Both have found niche roles in Pittsburgh that aren't terribly different from their niche roles in Tampa.

Reds: Both Nathaniel Lowe and Emilio Pagan had crucial roles in competitive Rays teams. Neither have had tremendous starts to this season, but Pagan at least has 4 saves right now. 

Twins: Joe Ryan, like Bradley, was a Rays farmhand. Ryan was dealt for Nelson Cruz, found his way up in Minnesota and became a star.

Yankees: The Rays really could have kept Jose Caballero if they wanted to, but they traded the then-season saves leader to the Yankees, and since then Cabby's been a wise, trusty infield fill-in. 

I'm not sure if any lockout or bargaining agreement or salary cap or ANYTHING can change the way the Rays run their team. It's a very cheap way of doing business, and with no checks or balances against it from the MLB level, they're gonna keep doing it. I don't think they'll ever win a World Series this way, and I don't think the Rays Wall of Fame will be especially long if every plaque ends with 'after a strong four seasons he was dealt to a competitor, where he was paid more and won a World Series'. 

Coming Tomorrow- One of many pieces of proof in Anaheim that good things come to those who wait.

Could You Go About This Any Less Strangely?

 

Okay, we're two and a half weeks in and I'm already calling it, the Orioles are the strangest good team in the game. I dunno how to explain it. This team is working in some sort of mystical, black magic sort of way. Like, y'know how because the Saints play in New Orleans you can make the case sometimes that there'll be some voodoo ritual explaining why they're good? There's no baseball team in New Orleans, so you can't really do anything like that in the MLB, but...I get the strangest feeling with this O's team. This 'skeleton band of the dead' sort of breeze rushing through 'em. I don't know how else to explain it.

Because it's built in the way that a good team should be built. The Orioles finally have good money behind them. Pete Alonso's paid for, at least for a little while. Shane Baz and Samuel Basallo are sticking around indefinitely. I'd hazard a guess that Gunnar Henderson might be next for one of those. But...the guys being backed by contracts aren't the guys pushing the team. Alonso's done okay so far, only 1 homer and 3 RBIs. Basallo has 1 solo homer to his name, nothing else. Baz has been fine, solid if unspectacular. 

It feels like the people doing well for the Orioles right now are the people that everyone, including the team, counted out. And that goes for Adley Rutschman especially. Remember last year when everyone thought the O's were gonna trade him to Philly for Dante Nori or something, since Basallo's in for a while? Well...the funny thing about Samuel Basallo is he's not a viable catching option right now. So even after a down, injury-addled year, the Orioles needed Adley Rutschman. So him hitting like old Adley shouldn't be too shocking. He's batting .241, but he's got 4 RBIs and 7 hits, including 4 doubles. The production is to the degree that it was, as is his catching skills. This is a comeback season in the making, and with Henderson swatting 4 homers and counting and Taylor Ward surprisingly fitting right in with this team, he's instilled more confidence in this team's outlook.

But the strangeness is more in the odds and ends guys, the people I wasn't even thinking about. Like with Yennier Cano a few years ago, the Orioles have struck gold with an oft-cut relief option, namely Rico Garcia, a 32-year-old journeyman who's FINALLY locked in as a member of the O's, scoreless and hitless through 6 appearances. Ryan Helsley, after a disastrous 2025 in Queens, has bounced back big time, and already has 4 saves in 5 appearances. Brandon Young, who would either go deep into a no-no or get clobbered by 3 last year, was pretty fantastic in his first start of 2026. The staff ace, need I remind you, is Trevor Rogers, who everyone counted out after the injury. The requisite utility infielder is Blaze Alexander, who, at least before last game, was batting .300.

Even for a .500 team, the Orioles are getting boosts from the wildest places, and it makes me feel really good about their odds as a spoiler this year. The pressure of keeping 1st is mostly off, now they're trying to embarrass the big guns, and I think they can do that. Then when all the injured guys get back they'll be even more of a favorite.

Coming Tonight: I used to think the Twins were just desperate for pitching period, but maybe they really saw something in this kid. 

The Talent Runs Out

 

D'you think...like, when the Padres traded Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek for Freddy Fermin, someone in the front office, anyone, had the thought of 'wait, is our pitching depth gonna withstand this move?'. Because I'd like to think one of them would have foreseen an April like this one, with a skeleton crew of a rotation trying to prove the team's legitimacy, and maybe gone '...don't we have anyone else we could deal?'

Right now, the Padres' rotation, which used to sport a treasure trove of excellent starting options and was slammed with depth basically every year from 2021 onward, consists of Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Randy Vasquez, German Marquez and Walker Buehler. Maybe three years ago this could have sounded promising. But Marquez is trying to convince people he can still pitch, and he's got a 4.50 ERA and only 5 Ks in 2 starts. Walker Buehler's looking pretty cooked, he's given up 7 earned runs in 6.2 innings. He's basically only starting due to lack of other options. Joe Musgrove is hurt and while he should be back within a month, because he hasn't pitched in a year or so, nobody's quite sure what he's gonna be working with. At some point Griffin Canning will return, but same concern. And so now that we're seeing Michael King and Nick Pivetta being around average so far...the concern grows.

Wildly, the best piece of this rotation so far has been Randy Vasquez, who at least showed promise in a swing role last year. In his first two starts, Vasquez has allowed only 1 earned run, struck out 11 and has a 0.9 WAR. He's displaying the sort of dominance he's wanted to work up towards, and with the number of questionable starting options the Padres have right now, it's a needed security. But considering that this rotation has seen commanding performances from Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Dylan Cease and Musgrove, being down to just 'well Randy Vasquez is here' is a little concerning.

It's even more glaring when you realize that next to no one on this Padres team is currently hitting. Only one guy hitting over .240, and it's Miguel Andujar, who the Padres are wisely starting at DH this year. Everyone else is barely moving the ball, hitting around .220 or just struggling to get anything done. Tatis, Merrill, Machado, Cronenworth and Sheets haven't done much. Xander Bogaerts has done the most contact work but he hasn't exactly gotten people home. A lot of guys on this team are defensive liabilities. And even adding Nick Castellanos didn't seem to work for some reason. You've got a team of overpaid guys not hitting, you bring in Nick Castellanos, what did you expect him to do? Hit?? 

It is, of course, early, and the team could lock into place, but virtually none of their competitors, save for one, have accomplished much this season at all. When the Diamondbacks are looking like the comparative sleeper hit, that's damning. The Padres still have time to erase this deficit, but it's gonna take more than just one series. The tide needs to shift, and this may not be the roster for that to make all the difference.

Coming Tomorrow- Towards the end of last season, a lot of people assumed he'd be traded or dealt with in some other way, and lo and behold he's still as valuable as everyone thought he was, Basallo be damned.