G Unit

 

I had issues a few years ago with the Guardians calling up a supplementary younger rotation while its preexisting rotation [Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, Carrasco] was still hanging around. And for a bit it was this weird mix of old and new arms, and there was this dissonance that didn't entirely work. Then last year something finally clicked, and we settled on a formula of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi and....Logan Allen.

And then Parker Messick swung in for Allen and we all went 'yeah, that does work a lot better.'

It hasn't always been pretty. Cecconi is still mostly an innings eater. Bibee will have some rough starts. Williams can still be wild. But this unit has gotten more done than most other incarnations, and that's because they all do exactly what's asked. Joey Cantillo is 8-5, has 112 strikeouts, and though he has a higher WHIP because of the walks he gives up, he's still a solid MLB starter with, funnily enough, the same record as Parker Messick who has a much lower ERA and is much more fundamentally strong pitcher. I always thought Gavin Williams was the best overall pitcher here, as the strikeout artist, but he's got a 4 ERA and 10 wins.

And then Tanner Bibee, who goes back and forth between steady and infuriating, is on a pretty steady run. He's got his ERA down to 3.86, has a 1.151 WHIP, and despite the Guardians continuously not winning his starts [he's got 9 losses], he's still a smart choice and a good guy to pack innings on. I'm glad he's settled in, and I'm glad he's got Messick and Williams to sort of fall in behind. It's like how Aaron Nola needed Zack Wheeler. Bibee seems to have the hang of things, and could get even stronger as we go.

The Guardians were already good, and now some of the things that weren't working before have been clicking into place. Steven Kwan is finally hitting again, and is hitting .400 this month with 18 hits and 5 RBIs, back to what's expected for the fan favorite. Austin Hedges is somehow hitting .280, and Patrick Bailey has somehow been hitting pretty nice as a backup catcher. Jose Ramirez just came off the IL and immediately hit a home run. DeLauter's heating up again, Gaddis is looking like his 2025 peak again, and Rhys Hoskins is somehow still leading the team in home runs. It's still not entirely pretty but the formula works, and there's enough to keep charging at Chicago.

As I'm writing this it's not looking like they're gonna top the White Sox quite yet, but they're still threatening to, and it could happen very soon if the Sox aren't careful. Look, with all the rough records in the first half, the Guardians are gonna be over .500 and competitive very soon, and it'll make the first half all worth it.

Coming Tonight: Cubs RBI machine, third or fourth year running. 

Find Grant

[First of all, to the MLB intern who did a Game Changer tribute post on twitter, including a 'Count the Ben Rice' and 'Find Grant Holmes', may you be rewarded for your niche interests. Game Changer, for those of you who aren't aware...oh god that's all of you, and it's a lot to explain. Consult your nearest weird nephew I guess. But it's a good thing. I swear.]

Grant Holmes becoming a household-ish name is not something I'd have predicted. I pulled a card of him out of 2015 Pro Debut, this schtarker of a Dodgers minor leaguer with a massive afro looking larger than anyone else on the field. And I'm going 'this is what counts for a Dodgers prospect these days? Ookay.' And of all the prospects from that set that didn't make the majors, he was at least one of the more notable ones. You don't forget a Grant Holmes. I genuinely thought he was Australian. Nah, just large. But he stuck around the minors for a decade, becoming a fixture of the A's double-A and triple-A teams, then right as he was getting the hang of things the pandemic happened, as did some strain concerns. He was cut in mid-2022, picked up by the Braves and kept as a minor league piece, eventually making the majors, at last, in 2024 at age 28. And from there it only got better, as Holmes' availability became his saving grace, as his low-velocity, leverage-friendly stuff kept him from missing much time, and gave him a fair amount of playing time compared to the other, more injury-prone Braves starters.

Holmes is now 30, and he's having his fullest season to date, with a 3.70 ERA, 78 Ks and a 6-4 record in 18 starts. It's not flashy [the Braves have Chris Sale for that] but it is efficient. He's gotten into some trouble fairly recently, especially the later he goes in games, but he's enough of a rock that the Braves don't have to worry too greatly. It's very odd that guys like Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes and Martin Perez have provided more stability to this rotation than Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider and Huston Waldrep. That's how good the Braves are this year, they did well with a rotation of Chris Sale and some scrubs essentially. And now things are kind of turning around and it's possible that they're gonna need a fuller, younger rotation to keep the Phillies and Marlins away.

Thankfully this team still has Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris playing beautifully, and Ronald Acuna should be back fairly soon. The team also seems to have found their everyday shortstop, as Jim Jarvis, the guy they got from the Tigers last year for Rafael Montero, is batting .292 in 15 games and already is becoming a fan favorite. Austin Riley finally seems to be heating up, Mike Yastrzemski is providing great insurance as a depth outfielder, and the bullpen currently holds three of the most dangerous relievers in the game right now. It's a well-rounded team that's gotten over its June swoon and is still staying ahead of the Phils [who, luckily for the Braves, had to play the defending champions this week]. 

It's a team that can utilize Grant Holmes prominently and it's still a good team. I kinda love that.

Coming Tomorrow- He was supposed to be the ace of his current rotation. That hasn't really happened, but he's still a pretty strong arm on there.

Bake-Off

 

Once again, you have to hand it to the Rays. They took talent that was lying dormant in another market, nabbed him for a bargain, made him a star and will now likely profit. Bryan Baker, you may have struggled to find stability with the O's, but now you're an all-star closer for a competitor. Somehow.

Baker I always liked with the Orioles because he was one of those constants that the fans loved. Made most of his appearances, did his job efficiently, balanced out the rough moments. I saw him pitch for the O's last year before he was traded and he seemed to have his stuff. The Rays must have known. They dealt for him, worked on some things, and gave him the ninth. So far he's got 25 saves with a 1.69 ERA, and has been the bright spot of a Rays bullpen that is doing its best without the homegrown depth it usually has. Ian Seymour, Cole Sulser and Garrett Cleavinger are usually viable options but they're not having great seasons. Casey Legumina still isn't the answer. They picked up Chris Roycroft and he hasn't been much better. Even late career Craig Kimbrel is flailing given the opportunity. I guess they can't have a young collective of ace relievers again for another couple years. 

It goes to show that the Tampa Bay Rays, most years but especially this one, specialize in having guys that can do one thing extremely well and most other things not well at all. They corner the market on niche specialists with no range. Where else can you find Nick Fortes, a catcher that doesn't hit and doesn't need to, Chandler Simpson, an ace-base stealer who hits triples but can't hit home runs, Ryan Vilade, who's built like an armed bodyguard but can't play left field, Richie Palacios, who...we're still not sure what he does well but the Rays sure need him, and Taylor Walls, the best infield defender in baseball with literally no offensive ability. The idea is these people don't need to be good at everything, they need to be good at the thing that they're best at, and pooling their resources together, they make a great team.

Now, granted, this only works because of the presence of a choice few multifaceted pieces, such as Junior Caminero, Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda, but the Rays-ball mentality of putting in the guy that works the best vs. the most well known and expensive version just works. It's been nearly a decade of this, you can never count these teams out, they're never bottom feeders and they're always one strong month away from competing. Right now they're competitive. Does this have to do with the fact that the Yankees are in a downswing? I'm supposed to say no. But in all honesty, the Rays are very good this year, have had a very nice month, and despite losing three straight to the Red Sox, still have a nice hold on the AL East. It's an imperfect hold, and the Yanks are shooting back up again, but they're not exactly gonna lay down and die either. 

Coming Tonight: A minor league lifer, doesn't throw too hard, relies on trickery and pitch selection. Happens to come into a rotation spot with one of the best organizations in the bigs. Is now suddenly a decent name. 

Wake Up, Edman

 

So, Yankees-Dodgers was this weekend, which means it was high time for the Yankee fans to complain that they can't win anything and are still spiraling despite the fact that they had to play a very good team, with a very good lineup, and are missing Aaron Judge. Calm down, we're gonna flash forward two months and the worrying will have been for nothing.

The Dodgers continue to be annoyingly perfect. Obviously still flawed, but not flawed enough for anything to go wrong. Like, okay, Will Smith's out for another month and the everyday catcher is Dalton Rushing, a power hitter with a foul mood whose inability to get on the same page as Shohei Ohtani on the mound might lead to Ohtani just not pitching til Smith comes back. On any other team that could be a 'trouble in paradise' headline, a 'maybe they're not as good as we thought' moment. Nope, they're still winning games. Kyle Tucker, the big offseason acquisition, is hitting .244 with only 7 home runs. No big deal, he's still in the lineup virtually everyday and Alex Call can go in for him. Edwin Diaz, the other big offseason acquisition, is hurt for probably the rest of the year, leaving them without a working closer. Well, of course this is the part where Tanner Scott actually figures his shit out, brings his ERA back to 2.50 and notches 14 saves. The whole bullpen is ridiculous actually. It's 5 guys that just get up there, only allow a run or so and make their next appearance. And then maybe occasionally Eric Lauer is needed for long work. Even something that was supposed to work differently snaps into something that's efficient anyway.

Tommy Edman was hurt for a bit, as he tends to be, and now he's back and immediately one of the best hitters on the team again. In 23 games he's hitting .343, with 2 home runs and 12 RBIs, including that needed home run last night in the Bronx [that, of course, was their only run in that game]. This wasn't even a needed burst of offensive help, they have Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages, but Edman is that extra piece guy that makes a team like this better. Usually it's Kiké Hernandez, he's been hurt. To this point it was Alex Call, he pales in comparison. Edman's versatile defensively, he's contact-friendly and he can just go on a tear when you need him to. I have no idea how the Cardinals convinced themselves they'd be better off without him and with Erick Fedde. J.J. Wetherholt is nice and all but you need an x-factor guy like Edman to come in and do everything. It's why guys like David Freese and Jedd Gyorko were so important to these teams last decade.

The Dodgers are the frontrunner yet again, and the most efficient and successful team in the bigs, again. Their challenge will be to carry this all the way into October again and pull off the all-too-rare threepeat. Remember, the Chiefs couldn't do it. They went into New Orleans thinking the threepeat was on the horizon and then the Eagles kicked their asses. And they were never the same. The Dodgers, if they're not careful, could end up like that. It's not the most likely outcome, it's also likely they could once again waltz to the end without anyone stopping them and set up a lockout. But we'll have to see what develops. Because we don't know how long Ohtani will be missing starts for, and we don't know how long it'll take Tucker and Betts to heat up, and we don't know if somebody else can get hotter, like in 2019 and 2022. For now, I'll just expect the Dodgers' story to remain the same and brace myself for the idea of a hard right turn.

Coming Tonight: The Orioles tried to make this guy their relief ace. It didn't work. So of course the Rays have more success. 

Latz Entertainment

 

Jacob Latz is not only the perfect summation of what closing pitching has turned into in the MLB, he's also the perfect summation of the Texas Rangers. 30 years old, oft-injured, never an opening day starter, given the chance to just pitch the ninth and becomes an all-star...and also the best player on the team. A team that is currently first in the AL West and one game above .500, with multiple stars hurt and/or underperforming. Jacob Latz is successful because they gave him a chance...but he's also, even as the closer, the most successful player on the Rangers.

Like, I bet they're all really happy that Latz is working out in the ninth. It's been a while since they've had a good long-term solution there. Mostly they'll just have one-year experiment, an Ian Kennedy or a Kirby Yates or a David Robertson. Latz is a younger, controllable option who's still in excellent shape and is only getting stronger. Right now he's got a 1.57 ERA, 19 saves, 47 Ks, a 0.652 WHIP, and a 2.3 WAR, which is higher than that of, say, Jacob deGrom or Corey Seager or Wyatt Langford. It just proves how valuable great relief pitching is to this team, and Tyler Alexander and Jake Junis are similarly valuable. When a lot of the games are close and a lot of the lineup is underperforming...the bullpen can be the MVP.

The ideals have changed. This is a cheesier power team now, with Jake Burger and Joc Pederson among the most valuable hitters, and some of the usual contact guys [Evan Carter, Josh Smith, Alejandro Osuna] not really doing the job. It is somewhat promising that some of the formative pieces are hitting better, and Wyatt Langford and Josh Jung have OPSs over .800. Langford still hasn't put together the 162-game campaign he's been waiting for, but he's hot right now, and has 9 homers and 23 RBIs in 46 games. Brandon Nimmo is still good, if not April good, and Ezequiel Duran is still good, if not June good. But what worries me is that Corey Seager is still hurt, and wasn't playing at peak levels before the injury. I don't know if Langford is at the point where he can really carry the team on his shoulders yet. I know Evan Carter isn't. 

Obviously this team is doing right, despite a lot of mediocre seasons [MacKenzie Gore, Kumar Rocker, Kyle Higashioka], because they're in first. It takes a lot of turnarounds after rough starts, especially from Pederson and Nate Eovaldi. Eovaldi had a rough first month or so and now he's 9-7 with a 4.04 ERA and 120 Ks, which is much closer to his usual self. Pederson took forever to start hitting and now he's got 15 homers and 35 RBIs, meaning FINALLY the Rangers can enjoy Pedey as much as literally every other team he's played for has. This team has a healthy Jacob deGrom on it, so of course it's at least kind of good. But going forward, as the Mariners re-ascend the ranks, the Rangers will need to decide whether they're a momentum team or they're actually good this year. If they can build something and sneak in, it could be a factor nobody's expecting. 

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who hit a game-tying home run against my Yankees tonight.

Everything Lines Up

 

There's a plot point in the second Thor movie, which isn't very good, where like 9 different realms or universes are going to line up at the same time, like a solar eclipse but more cosmic, and it only happens once every hundreds of thousands of years and of course it's happening during the events of this film. Like when else would everything come together like that? This Milwaukee Brewers team is acting similarly to that alignment, because this team is consisting of so much random shit that may not ever align this way again. Could this be the best season of Jacob Misiorowski's career? Is this the peak of Jake Bauers's improbable comeback? Will we ever see Garrett Mitchell this healthy again? Will we ever see Logan Henderson healthy at all again? It's funny how it's all working out.

And let's be clear, there's already a lot of Brewers that have missed this window. Quinn Priester will not be appearing this season. Brandon Woodruff might have overworked himself into another shortened season. And this moment might not even require Jeferson Quero, Jett Williams or Jesus Made. Maybe it will, maybe they'll be late callups. But everything this Brewers team has done has been without those guys, and with this ever-shifting mass of very intriguing people.

To give you an idea. The only constant this season in the Milwaukee outfield has been Garrett Mitchell. AKA the guy that usually gets hurt a week into the season. Everyone else has missed time. Chourio obviously had his first month out, Perkins has been in and out, Frelick just went on the IL, Lara just came up, Lockridge is hurt. Mitchell's been the constant, and he's hit .277 with an .826 OPS, 8 homers and 45 RBIs. Far and away Mitchell's fullest season to date, and 5 years into his career. He's currently got Chourio and Lara flanking him, so that's a little more consistent, and Lara is beginning to pick things up. Also, Chourio is having the kind of year where, if he hadn't missed a month, he'd be getting MVP votes. 

I also think it's wild that Shane Drohan and Logan Henderson have swung in to replace Brandon Woodruff and Kyle Harrison, and they've done a bang-up job. Drohan had another strong start yesterday, he's got a 3.20 ERA, 76 Ks and a 5-3 record, he might be something for these guys. Henderson's fantastic too but he needs to stay healthy. Brandon Sproat is slowly getting his ERA down with some better starts, and Robert Gasser's doing his best, obviously waiting for Harrison to come back. I also think Craig Yoho has swung into the bullpen at the right time, and might be a keeper. 

I still think they're the secret team to beat in the NL this year, and they might go about as far this year as they did last year. The Dodgers and Braves have had off weeks, the Brewers have been pretty steady throughout. I think something can be done here, and though a lot of this team's window may close very soon, there's enough bubbling that they could stay this good for a while.

Coming Tonight: From a swing-in starter to a lights-out closer, a guy who's finally found the right niche with the Rangers.

Infrequent Shopper

 

The Chicago White Sox have won 3 of their last 5 games by scoring 9 or more runs, just got Munetaka Murakami back after the Home Run Derby, saw one of their guys hit the only home run at the All-Star Game, and now they might be BUYING at the deadline? They're still in first, they're over .500...they're a major player in the AL. They might be scouting for trades. YES, THESE GUYS. Just last year they were sellers and now they can actually afford to make some deals. How insane is that?

The really impressive part is that there's not a hell of a lot on this team that truly needs to be upgraded. The catching position's a little slow, but Kyle Teel was hurt for half the season so it's understandable. Maybe one more OF bat would help? Braden Montgomery's heating up, Tristan Peters is THE guy and Sam Antonacci's having a strong season, but is there a power guy that's a little more varied than Andrew Benintendi out there? Or was that just Murakami? It may need to be rotation depth honestly. Anthony Kay, Noah Schultz and Erick Fedde have done fine, but the drop-off is real. There needs to be somebody else that can supplant Martin and Burke. Maybe this is where one of the Royals guys goes? Maybe Michael King goes here? Who knows. 

At the moment, the White Sox are coming off some very impressive offensive work, and though they got shut out by the Jays today, they scored 12 runs off of them yesterday, including production by both Montgomerys, Sam Antonacci, Tristan Peters, Kyle Teel...and Chase Meidroth, who's quietly having another nice season. Meidroth last year was a forerunner for a lot of the youth movement, he came in before Quero, Teel or Colson Montgomery got here and was strong when nearly no one else is. A better full-squad showing this year has allowed Meidroth to fade into the background a little more, but he's still hitting .271 with 7 homers and 32 RBIs. He's a nice, steady mid-lineup bat with defensive perks. The White Sox are piling up lots of guys like that and have finally given way to actual tentpoles [Murakami, Vargas, Colson Montgomery]. Which is why the team works now, an actual order and dichotomy has emerged, and it's not just 'young guy hits single x9'. Vargas has become the guy, Murakami has cornered the market on power, Antonacci and Meidroth have a niche as contact guys, and Colson Montgomery's the oddball clutch homer guy. It works a lot better.

The idea here is to keep ahead of Cleveland and ensure that the predictable outcome [of Cleveland or Detroit winning anyway] doesn't snap on. The White Sox do have the power numbers, and the pitching stability, to do it but the inexperience of this team still worries me, and still could keep them from going all the way. It's really good come down to how the White Sox manage the deadline, and if enough of this momentum holds. 

Coming Tomorrow- An outfielder who always seems to get injured right before the door opens for him to start. Which has made this season, a solid and healthy one for him, a relief.