Practical Magic

 The Pirates currently lead the league in inspired nicknames. They already have Jhostynxon "The Password" Garcia, and the beloved Brandon "Bamm-Bamm" Lowe. Now here comes a new power hitter named Esmerlyn Valdez, and he goes by the too-perfect nickname of 'The Magician'. Esmerlyn, the Magician. These things write themselves.

Anyway, Valdez has been the spark of this latest Pirates upswing, as his power hitting has been a welcome new addition to a lineup that, one might argue, didn't need the power boost considering Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn, Bryan Reynolds and Spencer Horwitz are here. But Valdez is young, confident, and already has 13 homers and 34 RBIs in 35 games, plus a crazy 1.063 OPS. This kid is already something, and has turned the Pirates into a potential wild card threat again. They're ahead of the Cardinals in the standings? Remember when we all thought the Cardinals were gonna be something, then we remembered they had no starting pitching? The Pirates have starting pitching, a working power core, AND rookies like Konnor Griffin and Esmerlyn Valdez making things even better.

The rotation is also pretty impressive all the way through, for the first time in a while. It's not just Skenes! Skenes is extremely helpful, but Braxton Ashcraft's 9-4 with a 3.95 ERA, Jared Jones is looking like his old self after 10 games with a 3.72 ERA, and both Mitch Keller and Bubba Chandler are at least eating innings and having some good starts in the midst of mostly 4ish ERA seasons. Whatever, Carmen Mlodzinski is there if things go haywire, even if he's still not wild about being a long man. Still a great situation. 5 strong choices, a sixth if things go wrong, and Connor Wietgrefe if things go really wrong. Better than the usual strategy of Paul Skenes and a bunch of guys who will be traded. 

The Pirates are on the verge of something, but this Cubs series is testing them. The bullpen still isn't great, and sending Dennis Santana out on a rail is only so much help. I really hope the Pirates can shop around for relief pieces at the deadline. They'd be a sneaky landing place for some of the more efficient relief pieces on the board, and it could help them stay in the race rather than die off immediately. I know they made some deals a couple years ago at the deadline and it didn't do them any good, but it's better than not trying, and the Pirates have gotten a lot out of not trying. It's given them a nice playoff drought that they're trying to end. And hopefully this is the team that can do it.

Coming Tonight: Still one of the best closers in baseball, in case anybody cares. 

Destination Very Much Known

 

Ryan Jeffers has a pretty sturdy week ahead of him. After this series against the A's he plays a few games against the Royals, and then he and the rest of the Twins head to Seattle, and then at some point during that series he'll be heading to New York to join the Yankees because he's going to be traded to the Yankees. Everyone knows Ryan Jeffers is about to be traded to the Yankees. The fact that they're waiting for the formality of the trade deadline is honestly just proof that the deadline season is kind of a farce at this point. If you want to make a move, make a move, don't wait til the wire.

So Ryan Jeffers having to be a Minnesota Twin this week when everyone knows that A.) the Yankees want him and B.) they have more to offer the Twins than anyone else looking for a primary catcher, which...who even is right now anyway [the Sox??]. But they're waiting til they can get the TV coverage for making the deal so they have to pad this out. We all know they're gonna offer the Twins some prospect cornucopia, probably some double-A pitchers, and the Twins are gonna ask for Spencer Jones, the Yankees are gonna say no, and the Twins are gonna go through with the deal anyway. Everyone knows how this goes. But we've gotta have Jeffers ride out the half, I guess.

Jeffers has been pretty good this year, and would likely be an upgrade over Austin Wells if dealt to the Yankees. He's hitting .283 with a .922 OPS, has 9 homers and 35 RBIs in 41 games, and has been one of the highlights of a better-than-expected Twins lineup. I don't think taking Jeffers out of this lineup will wound the team too much, Victor Caratini can start and Alex Jackson can be backup. Perhaps THE answer is on the way. And plus, as long as Josh Bell, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall and Brooks Lee stay in the lineup, they should be fine. I don't know if all of them will. The Twins could be shopping anything from just Jeffers to the whole team, including Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton. But we won't know just how much they're willing to deal til far too late. They really shouldn't trade Buxton, but y'know...they don't know what they're doing. 

So, this week the farce will just continue. Jeffers will be somewhat helpful as the Twins do okay work skirting the middle of the division while the Royals and Tigers tank for prospects knowing full well they'll be competitive again next year. And then they'll deal him, and probably other people, and then settle around fourth and not be heard from again til I get to Fort Myers next March, where everyone will be about how the rebuild starts now and it's part of the plan.

I'm not a Twins fan, but if I was I'd be making sure I had something in my life that provided joy as well. 

Coming Tomorrow- Right when you thought the Pirates still weren't for real, like magic a new power hitter appeared to jam them back into the playoff race. 

Worth the Toll Fare?

 
Yanks-Phils. The series where once a year I can go 'whoever wins, I can be happy'. The Yanks had a rough June but seem to be good again. The Phils are fully in Donnie Baseball era and are still riding the midyear momentum despite a slight slowdown. Now they can just beat each other up in peace and hopefully continue to rise upward.

Last night's game was a win for the boys in navy, and they did it on one single Paul Goldschmidt home run, off Jesus Luzardo. I'm not sure if it's concerning that the only guy in the lineup that scored any runs was Paul Goldschmidt, who is 38, or comforting that the Yanks' starter not only held the Phils down but worked a shutout. Obviously these guys are trying to jumpstart their lineup and get it to where there aren't as many so-called automatic outs, and the deadline deals will likely help, but they need their lineup to feel like a deep well of possibilities. It's helping that Jazz Chisholm seems to be on the way up again, he's got 16 homers and 43 RBIs, with 27 steals. It's still a possibility that he repeats as a 30-30 guy, though...the initial prediction of 50/50 might be a-ways off. Still love what he brings to the team, even if he's a little full of himself. Dominguez and Volpe are on their way, and Dominguez already has 5 homers and 12 RBIs. But the issue is that Judge and Stanton are both out, McMahon and Wells have been embarrassingly limited, and the lineup still feels inconsistent. Will an Arraez or a Jeffers help this? Who knows.

But their strengths are still the same. Cody Bellinger is an excellent contact hitter and made a game-saving catch last night in left. Cam Schlittler is still a Cy Young candidate with so many strengths, and now Cole and Fried are back and healthy, ensuring the pitching is as strong as it was meant to be [and don't count Warren or Weathers out entirely either]. Brent Headrick has been untouchable as a setup man, and David Bednar finally feels like The Renegade again. They're still a formidable team with a halfway decent chance of lapping the Rays very soon, and they could go on a nice run even if the 'run it back' strategy has deterred many pundits from thinking there'll be palpable success.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are resting on the fundamentals. The top 3 guys in the rotation, Kyle Schwarber, and the CBP atmosphere. And they're hoping that's enough. Right now it is. For a lot of this season it has been that simple. Maybe I'm underselling it- Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, Jhoan Duran and occasionally Alec Bohm have been very helpful. But it really comes down to Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo being on top of their games. Luzardo, despite giving up the fatal homer last night, has been lights-out the last two months, and has a 3.30 ERA in 20 starts. Sanchez has been a little shakier this month but still has a 2.71 ERA, a league-leading 12 wins and 151 Ks. Wheeler, despite the missed month, is otherworldly right now, 10-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 117 Ks in 16 appearances. If the sportswriters didn't have a bias against him for some reason, I think that should result in Cy Young votes, but...y'know, I don't think he'll be the shiniest object for some reason. 

There's still a deep pit in the lineup that's trying to be exhumed. Turner, Stott and Crawford just aren't cutting it right now. Realmuto is better but not peak J.T. The Derek Hill addition has helped more than anyone has thought, he's hitting .290 with 4 homers and 9 RBIs, and I'm of the opinion that, even if the Phils bring on some new guys, Hill should keep starting. Dude deserves it. There's also the usual problems of a lack of rotation depth and a mess in the bullpen. We will no doubt try to pull bullpen upgrades but I still think it's just cursed. Duran is the outlier. We've brought in so many sure bets and they've all keeled over. This McFarlane kid better be something different. The idea is the Phils will try and pull in a big ticket rotation guy, and that could mean anything from Skubal to Wacha to Peralta to 'well, here's Tomoyuki Sugano, have fun'. 

I want both of these teams to go deep. They both technically could, but still have some issues to deal with. We'll see how it pans out ultimately, but at the very least we're in an era where both my favorite teams are competitive and fun, and that's always better for me.

Coming Tonight: Ironically a guy who might be headed to New York if you believe the rumors. 

Its Barest Essentials

 

The 3D chess it took for the Diamondbacks to trade Merrill Kelly, then bring him back alongside the two pitching prospects they got for him, buy Nolan Arenado for a low price to ensure that St. Louis was the problem, sign Eduardo Rodriguez knowing he won't be great immediately but he will be great eventually, and pick up Jonathan Loiasiga at the exact time he figures out how to stay healthy. After years of just being too late, or too early, or not enough...have the Arizona Diamondbacks somehow figured out how to make the playoffs again?

I mean, nobody said it couldn't be done, but after the 2024 and 2025 playoff attempts fell short, it was looking like the 2023 run was extremely flukey. Not that the pieces from that team didn't remain, and weren't still active, but the atrophy was clear. Moreno struggled to stay healthy, Gallen and Kelly's full seasons eventually took their toll, the bullpen got old, Brandon Pfaadt didn't develop laterally, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. didn't fully showcase the 2023 numbers after the fact. But this season, there's been enough spark to convince people there's something here. Carroll, Perdomo and Marte never really worried anyone, but Gabriel Moreno's having another terrific season, hitting .309 with 7 homers and 36 RBIs in 79 games. I think we all blinked and he was hitting .300, thanks to some great work the last couple months. Carroll has 15 homers and 49 RBIs, and still has the speed to leg out all those triples. Ryan Waldschmidt seems to be sinking in as an everyday OF option, and Jorge Barrosa seems to be the answer in center for now. It's clear they're still a few pieces away from truly chasing the competition, but the formula's working. Before the break they swept the Dodgers, something the Padres can never do when given the opportunity. Maybe there's something here.

If so, this month may not even be fully indicative of the team's output, as the rotation's pretty banged up at the moment. In a week or so they'll get Mike Soroka back, and sometime later Gallen and Burnes will return. But even now, Rodriguez is driving the ghost shift, and both Kohl Drake and Mitch Bratt have been effective filling in for the usual guys. Maybe they'll be cannon fodder if the D-Backs want a more permanent answer for the stretch run, but it's nice they're keeping things moving. But even with a depleted rotation, the team's hitting, the bullpen's strong, there's more youth mobility than there was before, and there's even room for the ill-fated Max Kepler Redemption Campaign.

It's way too soon to tell if the D-Backs' current holding of the wild card spot will stand for the rest of the season. The Cardinals also want it, the Padres also want it, the Marlins want it a little and I believe the Padres might also have wanted it at some point. It's never a simple wild card race for the D-Backs, and they'll need to outlast their previous incarnations and power through despite oncoming intimidation. If this team can keep a surge lasting this long, it can happen. I just still can't tell if they're that team anymore.

Coming Tomorrow- The single flashiest player in baseball, and in the perfect city for him.

It's Yours. Go Take It.

 

I think the best word to describe the Mariners this year would be 'reluctant'. So far this year, the AL West has been led by the Athletics, who then punted and fell apart last month, then the Rangers, who are likely going to relinquish it again soon, all while the Mariners flirt with greatness while being the only great team in the division. Like you kinda want to let them in on it, right? Like, these other guys are gonna keep doing this, you have to try and stay ahead of them or this whole thing is gonna be for nothing. 

The Mariners, just like in 2024, have a rotation full of people genuinely good at what they're doing, and not in danger of going anywhere. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock and Bryan Woo are all working on terrific seasons, and not in a worrying way. Longevity is the name of the game with all these guys, especially Gilbert, Kirby and Woo. Gilbert's been here since 2021, he's still extremely good and makes all his starts, and this season he's got a 3.38 ERA and 129 Ks in 20 starts. Bryce Miller's only made 10 starts so far and he has a 2.27 ERA, with 71 Ks and a 2.0 WAR. Miller was doing this sort of lights-out work in last year's playoffs, and is gearing up for a similar run if the Mariners have it in them this year.

And...do they?? No one on this team has more than 15 homers. No one on this team has more than 48 RBIs. No one on this team is hitting over .281. Josh Naylor and Cal Raleigh were supposed to carry this team and are doing very okay, and Cole Young and Randy Arozarena are essentially doing all the work. Julio Rodriguez has 15 homers and 43 RBIs, and we've all seen him do better. He just picks the weirdest times to heat up honestly. Same with Luke Raley, who was wonderful in mid-May and has completely evaporated any sense of forward momentum. It's not that this team isn't hitting; many of them are. The issue is that the unified intimidation factor from last year, where any of Rodriguez or Arozarena or Naylor or Raley or Canzone can beat your ass, seems to be gone. Maybe Cole Young will drive in a run and get 3 hits but nobody's an everyday hero this year. They just pick their moments. Also Cole Emerson is still ramping up to the numbers the prospectors assumed he'd be at by now. We can't have another Jarred Kelenic on our hands.

The Mariners have a habit of lining everything up in August, and that'll need to happen this time. Last time they were a little better than they are now, and more of a position to buy. Right now they're a hare under .500 and need to win over the Rangers to retake the division. They had two low-level teams this week and went 3-3. If this series goes similarly they may need the help even more than they initially did. Hopefully whatever happens makes them into a better competitor, because if it's this current incarnation, I don't think the run's lasting as long as last year's.

Coming Tonight: Former World Series catcher having, at last, a strong and healthy year once again. 

Seiya So

 

Usually around this time of year, the Chicago Cubs are either cartwheeling out of a playoff spot or cartwheeling out of first. This year's no different. The Brewers have a padded lead of the NL Central, and 7 games back are the Cubs, at 57-45, well over .500 after their stumble in late May. They've been rock-solid ever since, are still a proven competitor, and are looking at a playoff spot, even if it's not the safest one. I know this sounds an awful lot like last season's Cubs team, but they swear it's different.

Although, last season's Cubs team had a healthy Cade Horton, better seasons from Imanaga, Boyd and Taillon, and the Kyle Tucker factor. Now we have a mediocre Alex Bregman season, a snakebitten rotation, a very scattered bullpen [Palencia keeps getting hurt], and an alarming lack of upward momentum. Matt Shaw, Kevin Alcantara and Moises Ballesteros are all stalling at the gate after big callups last year, and there haven't been any real younger Cubs coming to save the rotation either. Is this team moving forward? Can it move forward at all?

If this team does anything long-term this season, it'll be because the lineup has packed so much run production in there that other teams can't handle it. Seiya Suzuki has 17 homers, 53 RBIs and an .831 OPS, and this is a walk in the park year for him. He routinely gets the OPS over .800, routinely produces tons of runs. Just a steady RBI guy, the exact kind of guy the team needed without being too big or two one-dimensional. Michael Busch has been like that too, just gets in there, produces runs, doesn't need to do much else. He's only got 13 home runs and 54 RBIs but the season's still sort of young. Ian Happ has 18 homers and 45 RBIs, and has continued to be this consistent source of power for a good half-decade or so.  Dansby Swanson's very hot-and-cold, but when he's hot he's unstoppable. And then you have Pete Crow-Armstrong once again working on an MVP campaign, not only hitting .282 with a .900 OPS, 22 homers, 55 RBIs and 25 steals, but some of the best outfield catches in the game. He's nailing every facet of this game and doing exactly what the Cubs knew he could. 

Beyond that, there's still work to be done. David Peterson and Jameson Taillon are getting crucial big game situations and can't really contend with them right now. Imanaga and Boyd are okay but have been better. There's no slam dunk guy in this rotation because Steele and Horton are out, and while Steele should be back soonish, a lot will be on his shoulders when he does get back. Basically, this team isn't a playoff WINNING team if they don't have starters that know what they're doing. The Cubs will be going up against teams like the Brewers, Dodgers, Braves and Phillies, and they all have excellent rotations for a playoff schematic. What do the Cubs have right now? And if they want Skubal, do they have the prospects to make it work? Will they GO for Kevin Alcantara or Matt Shaw? 

The Cubs have a team that could surprise some people this year, it's just not complete, and I don't know if it will be.

Coming Tomorrow- Something I've noticed in the last couple seasons is that he may not be prompt, he may not begin the season on the active roster, but when he gets there, he makes it count. 

G Unit

 

I had issues a few years ago with the Guardians calling up a supplementary younger rotation while its preexisting rotation [Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, Carrasco] was still hanging around. And for a bit it was this weird mix of old and new arms, and there was this dissonance that didn't entirely work. Then last year something finally clicked, and we settled on a formula of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi and....Logan Allen.

And then Parker Messick swung in for Allen and we all went 'yeah, that does work a lot better.'

It hasn't always been pretty. Cecconi is still mostly an innings eater. Bibee will have some rough starts. Williams can still be wild. But this unit has gotten more done than most other incarnations, and that's because they all do exactly what's asked. Joey Cantillo is 8-5, has 112 strikeouts, and though he has a higher WHIP because of the walks he gives up, he's still a solid MLB starter with, funnily enough, the same record as Parker Messick who has a much lower ERA and is much more fundamentally strong pitcher. I always thought Gavin Williams was the best overall pitcher here, as the strikeout artist, but he's got a 4 ERA and 10 wins.

And then Tanner Bibee, who goes back and forth between steady and infuriating, is on a pretty steady run. He's got his ERA down to 3.86, has a 1.151 WHIP, and despite the Guardians continuously not winning his starts [he's got 9 losses], he's still a smart choice and a good guy to pack innings on. I'm glad he's settled in, and I'm glad he's got Messick and Williams to sort of fall in behind. It's like how Aaron Nola needed Zack Wheeler. Bibee seems to have the hang of things, and could get even stronger as we go.

The Guardians were already good, and now some of the things that weren't working before have been clicking into place. Steven Kwan is finally hitting again, and is hitting .400 this month with 18 hits and 5 RBIs, back to what's expected for the fan favorite. Austin Hedges is somehow hitting .280, and Patrick Bailey has somehow been hitting pretty nice as a backup catcher. Jose Ramirez just came off the IL and immediately hit a home run. DeLauter's heating up again, Gaddis is looking like his 2025 peak again, and Rhys Hoskins is somehow still leading the team in home runs. It's still not entirely pretty but the formula works, and there's enough to keep charging at Chicago.

As I'm writing this it's not looking like they're gonna top the White Sox quite yet, but they're still threatening to, and it could happen very soon if the Sox aren't careful. Look, with all the rough records in the first half, the Guardians are gonna be over .500 and competitive very soon, and it'll make the first half all worth it.

Coming Tonight: Cubs RBI machine, third or fourth year running.