A Minus

 

[Unrelated opening note: I keep mentally referring to Tyler Soderstrom as 'Tyler Sodeepop' every time I hear about him. That can't be good for his legitimacy.]

The way the Athletics have run out of steam this season has been frankly insulting. On June 19th they were a .500 team, mostly in second place, powering through some rough stretches but staying on target and keeping in the race. Then they go on a truly appalling losing stretch, they lose Nick Kurtz, get him back but not his power bat, and now they're so far under .500 that they're not even a competitor anymore. It's looking like some people might be dealt, and if it wasn't for the injury, Shea Langeliers would definitely be one of them. Just very, very sad, as if they'd kept their stuff together they might have had a shot.

Once again, Tyler Soderstrom, who's somehow only 24, has cemented himself as a very crucial lineup piece, with an .821 OPS, 17 homers and 50 RBIs. Not quite the power season he was having last year around this time, as his hot start got him to his first 25 homer year, but potentially evenly-displaced enough to get past that mark by October. Aside from Kurtz, Soderstrom might be the most accurate pure hitter on the A's this year, and with both Rooker and Langeliers out for a while, and Gelof and Kuroda-Grauer down for a little while [JKG had one of the single most unfortunate MLB injuries I've seen in a while, and in the midst of a stretch where he was hitting .400 no less], a lot more is riding on him. He might be one of the few people left on this team who hasn't gotten hurt or gone cold for a substantial percentage of the season. And it's weird that we're down to him. Jacob Wilson and Lawrence Butler were supposed to mean so much more to this team, but they're both having down years, with Wilson being much less accurate than his rookie campaign, and Butler only hitting .199 with 5 homers. We've seen him take off in the second half before, so I'm not terribly worried, but this still isn't great, especially for a very big piece of this team. 

I guess on the bright side I feel better about the long term development of this team's pitching than before. The Springs and Severino gambits did not work. Not inevitable but...yeah, I figured there was a chance. J.T. Ginn getting more starts was a very good thing, he could be the ace next year, he had a 3.50 ERA and 100 Ks in 22 appearances. Gage Jump is also very much MLB-ready, and has a 4 ERA and 68 Ks in 12 starts. Given a fuller season he should be on his way. Beyond that, I'm not sure though. Lopez and Morales just aren't getting it done this year. Logically Joey Estes should get another shot but who knows if he'll be any better. It's still two young, controllable arms more than I would have credited them for going into the season.

Not much else for the A's to do at this point but just ride it out and prep for 2027. Two more months of grueling play and missed opportunities, hopefully they're at least a slight upgrade from the last two.

Coming Tonight: One of the most effective power hitters in baseball. In case you were worried he'd have nothing to say this year. 

Worth the Gamble?

 

I would say more than most other seasons, this particular deadline week is inundated with teams who could either be a buyer or a seller. Because the middle of the pack this year seems to dominate the conversation, only a few teams really are in position to feasibly buy or sell, and even so, the top and bottom teams might not even be the most crucial players. I don't think the Dodgers are going to do much this deadline season. People keep linking them to Skubal, but that might just be in free agency. Similarly, I don't think the Rockies will be as picked at as people seem to think. I think the middle teams have the most to gain...but too many of them are still noncommittal on whether or not it's worth it to make a run this year.

Genuinely, like half the league is in this conundrum right now. The Pirates, Orioles, Marlins, Blue Jays, Nationals, Astros, Padres, D-Backs, Twins, Tigers and Cardinals are all unsure of the direction of the next two months. That's 11 teams. That's...a lot. All still undecided, all still up in the air. 

The Cardinals have been one of the most fascinating teams of this season, because on a number of levels they have cracked what's baffled them to this point. J.J. Wetherholt and Jordan Walker have lived up to expectations and are leading this team into their next era. Alec Burleson's having an extremely effective year as an all-around hitter. The rotation, despite being mostly anonymous, is holding things together, with Michael McGreevy, Kyle Leahy and Andre Pallante all working on nice seasons. Defensively this team has its stuff together on a number of levels. However...there isn't terribly much to this team, still. Blaze Jordan was brought in to be the surefire hit at third that Nolan Gorman wasn't, and he's sort of doing a lot of the same things. There's still not much bench depth, there's barely contact infrastructure [the team's hitting .239, and the bullpen is mostly perfunctory really, barring a star turn from Riley O'Brien. This is a very okay team with a bunch of very good pieces.

Since the All-Star break, the Cardinals have come back to earth a great deal, with a 3-9 record, bringing them below .500 and to fourth place again. With the Cubs in town, who have a ton more momentum currently, the Cardinals aren't looking like they'd be wise in buying at this rate. But that's never stopped them before. On many occasions the Cardinals have taken on smaller pieces and have opted to be a spoiler in case a wild card spot surfaces, and that mentality got them Jordan Montgomery at the deadline a few years ago. They're also one of those teams that never thinks they're out of it until it's impossible to think otherwise. They may still buy, as a way of using the additions as a springboard to make an okay team great, which is...not how I think trade deadline acquisitions should work, they should supplant great teams, not make teams competitors singlehandedly. 

Who knows, the Cardinals could go for Skubal or Volpe or somebody huge. Or, they could decide to unload some small stuff and focus on 2027, as they should do. But we've established that the Cardinals aren't very good at doing what I want them to.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the few people still trying on a team that's basically given up.

Rodent to Nowhere

 

Here's how the Tigers' season is going: last night, all the action was upstaged by a bunch of field hands chasing after a squirrel. After that, the Tigers lost the game to the Orioles. I'm not sure who actually did anything during the game but the squirrel may have done more. 

Rough go of things for the Tigers yet again. The all-for-one contact energy that made the teams great in 2024 and 2025 has dissolved to reveal a bunch of starting roles for people that won't hit. Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson, Matt Vierling, Colt Keith and Zach McKinstry have all been very disappointing this year. We've seen them band together and do something great, and they're just not doing that. And what happened to Parker Meadows? Wasn't he supposed to be something? Or is the Meadows family just cursed? Yes, Riley Greene, Gleyber Torres, Kevin McGonigle and Dillon Dingler make a very nice core for this team, but the depth was what got them to the playoffs. Now there's none of that. Hao-Yu Lee is...decent? He's hitting .274 with 6 homers and 23 RBIs, I suppose that's alright. I dunno who else is around to fill out this lineup? Is Max Clark gonna happen this year or not? 

The pitching is a little surer of itself but Mize and Skubal have both had excellent seasons plagued by injury. Skubal missed some time, came back and is still very good [and likely on the way to a surer market], while Mize will have an excellent stretch then leave a start early and come back a week later like nothing's different. Mize is just giving people ulcers every so often, and while I'm glad he's pitching well again, that's not the way. Jack Flaherty's season isn't great either, he's got a 4 ERA again and is missing time. And Framber Valdez, in between occasional flashes of Astros brilliance, has a 4.50 ERA and too many starts where teams get the best of him. This man was the king of quality starts before, and now he just can't keep runs down. It's kind of upsetting.

It makes the rise of Troy Melton even more satisfying, because this guy was not supposed to start this year. When JV got signed, the Tigers' rotation seemed very figured out. Skubal-Mize-Valdez-Flaherty-JV. All but Valdez has gotten injured. Keider Montero, the sixth man, became a very crucial pillar for this rotation. Openers were high in demand. And Melton, who was at best a long reliever, was given starts. He's been extremely good in this role though, with a 1.95 ERA, a 5-1 record and 55 Ks in that time. Skubal has been good, but he's got a 2.70 ERA. Even Skubal's had missteps. Melton's just been really solid and not very showy at all. So even if Skubal leaves, Melton could be a nice rotation backbone guy if things keep going wrong, similar to Montero. 

The Tigers probably aren't competing, will probably sell at the deadline, and will probably rethink what a competitive team will look like going forward. I thought this rebuild would yield success, it sort of did, but it didn't have the legs they wanted. And they may need to pare down and think small for a bit. Unless they've got any more rodent-related plays in mind.

Coming Tonight: An actual decent starting pitcher from the Cardinals. Who'd have thought?

Here We O Again...

 

The Orioles are 4 games under .500, in fourth place in the AL East, blocked by three heftier competitors...and it looks like once again, even with the proper development and roster-building, it's just gonna happen. Last year they at least had an excuse. Everyone got injured, Elias only signed minimal guys, the plan failed. This year they had a new manager, new contracts, an even beefier lineup, Pete Alonso in the driver's seat and so much more going for them. And they still can't get anywhere. 

But...it's still early enough that the O's could technically still factor into the wild card race. They're only 2.5 games back from a spot right now, meaning they're not fully out of the running yet, and a late drive could always happen. It's just a matter of whether or not the organization believes in this team enough to leg out the season with th-what d'you mean they're already shopping Taylor Ward?

The wise part about this team is that they've got a ton of these guys contracted for a while. Shane Baz, Kyle Bradish, Samuel Basallo, Pete Alonso. That does keep Rutschman, Henderson, Ward and Rogers in the 'short term' category technically, and if anything does need to be done at the deadline, it probably won't break the team. Holliday, Jackson, Cowser, Alexander and possibly Beavers are all in it for the long run, they're not going anywhere. It's mostly gonna be smaller pieces for the moment, and if it's that then I won't be too worried about the future impact.

The present impact is a little shaky though. Right now both catchers are hurt, so Chadwick Tromp and Maverick Handley, two career third-string backstops, are taking most of the reps. Blaze Alexander, who WAS the answer at third, got hurt and will be out for a bit, so Christian Encarnacion-Strand is now the upgrade from Coby Mayo. Jackson Holliday's defense is causing the fans to turn on him more than they already were. Rico Garcia's strong first half has evened out to reveal a very human second half, and current ninth inning choice Andrew Kittredge is not as strong as he was last year. There's holes in this team, and they're keeping them from greatness.

Which is why it's been nice that Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish and Brandon Young have all been very strong as starting options. Usually by this point the Orioles' rotation is a matter of 'who's around', that's not the case this year. Bradish is healthy and thriving, with a 3.49 ERA and 110 Ks in 20 starts. Brandon Young is 8-2 and has a 3.13 ERA, a far cry from his occasionally brilliant but mostly spotty 2025. Baz and Rogers have both come around after tough runs. Dean Kremer's bringing up the rear but even he's getting better every start. It's usually a stumbling point for this team but it's lifting them now. And on the other hand...Pete Alonso's the best player on the team, has appeared in every game and has 22 home runs and 67 RBIs, which is exactly what they signed the guy for. Truth in advertising.

The Orioles aren't pretty, but they're not dead yet. Their deadline mentality is gonna be interesting however they go about it, cause they could still be something but I don't know if they want to risk it. 

Coming Tomorrow- Going into the season, he probably figured he'd get work as a long relief option. Then 3 starters got injured. And now he's been one of the team's biggest surprises. 

Unstoppable Force, Movable Object

 

To finish off June, the San Diego Padres lost 8 consecutive games. And for a team with next to no pitching and an alarming lack of depth, that was considered par for the course I suppose. Around this time the Miami Marlins were taking off, with a 20-6 record in June. Two teams going two very separate directions. So how do you explain the results of this Padres-Marlins series, where the Padres took all three, meaning the Marlins have now lost 12 straight, despite winning six straight beforehand? What the hell went wrong? The Marlins haven't lost anybody. The Padres haven't gained anybody. Now the Padres might be more of a wild card threat than the Marlins, despite them both having the same record.

Manny Machado is the guy who most represents the strangeness of this Padres season. They're not good, but they were given the belief to be at least decent. Hasn't gone 100% according to plan. Much like Manny Machado's season. This has been the first real down season the man has had since his early days in Baltimore, like his 2014 season where he, at 21, only hit .278 with 12 homers and 32 RBIs in a shortened season. Or his 2017, where, in between star-making campaigns, he hit .259 with 33 homers and 95 RBIs, most accomplished in a second half struggling to make up for a down first. Machado, in the midst of a Hall of Fame career that will no doubt cross the 400 home run mark this year and possibly the 500 mark eventually, is hitting .210 with 23 homers and 36 RBIs, with a 0.8 WAR owing to a high strikeout percentage, poor defense and a lack of real pull in the direction of the team. But he was still able to hit a crucial home run off of Lake Bachar last night, in addition to Jackson Merrill, who's also suddenly hitting despite a subpar overall campaign.

The Padres will likely sell at the deadline...or will they? We thought the Marlins would be buying, but now that they're back under .500, who knows? The Padres have Michael King, Ty France and Mason Miller to deal, and probably still will even if they're better than they were. But now there's been this swell, they're chasing the Diamondbacks who are ducking again, and now they're playing two much worse NL West teams, and...they could buy after all? Is there a way they could even out while still dealing Miller and France? Who knows. The Tigers still chased glory a couple years ago after dealing Jack Flaherty. 

The Marlins...I just don't understand it. Nothing's changed. They still have the same offensive onslaught since before the losing streak began. Still Stowers, Hicks, Hernandez...they've just all gone cold. Stowers is still hitting, but only .234, despite the 13 homers and 45 RBIs. Hicks is cold after a terrific start, now down to .277. Marsee's stopped hitting, Joe Mack's cooled down, it's the whole team basically. It's not that the team's suddenly bad, it's that they all picked the same time to go cold. The Yankees do this all the time, they just did this a month ago. Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara are still viable answers in the rotation, with 3.5 to 4 ERAs and high strikeout totals. The bullpen's hit a bit of a snag, but since John King is back that could be coming to an end. Otto Lopez still leads the league in batting average with .328, and he might be the only guy in this lineup who hasn't really slowed down. But alas, even against the Padres, they just couldn't find the will.

They honestly should still buy. The core still is successful, this month has just sucked for them. I think one more rotation arm would do it, possibly another contact bat or an actual 1st baseman [France?], and getting Max Meyer back eventually would possibly be helpful as well. I also think that potentially Deyvison De Los Santos could be a very helpful midyear callup, but I've been saying that for like 3 years at this point so what do I know? 

This should be a turning point for both teams. The Marlins should respond to this Padres series with the intensity to ensure it'll never happen again. The Padres should respond to this Marlins series with the mentality that'll either confirm that they're a seller or add fuel to the fire that a wild card run is still in the cards. We'll see what actually comes from it though.

Coming Tonight: The Orioles just gave him a lot of money to stick around, so that...knocks out ONE potential deadline target I guess..

Love Him or Hader

 

Remember when Josh Hader to Houston was supposed to be the kingmaker move? The kind of move that would ensure the Astros would stay in the hunt perpetually going forward despite the aging core and the loss of more and more key players? And instead, Hader might actually be one of the few things that have stayed consistent about the Astros since Joe Espada took over? 

The Astros are in second last now. I know people don't like when I do this, but it's very much by default. The A's have completely fallen apart, the Mariners refused to win more than one game in a crucial division series, the Rangers are in first by a thread but just lost Josh Jung. The Astros are under .500, still not entirely a threat, just lost Spencer Arrighetti and expect Peter Lambert and a rehabbing Hunter Brown to do all the work. This is a meritless second place. They won 5 straight and then Munetaka Murakami absolutely embarrassed them, and when the White Sox earn a win more than you, you're fooling a lot of people, including yourself. 

It's not like this is a completely bad team, because Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena represent the absolute best this lineup has to offer. This lineup was a lot better when you actually had George Springer, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Yuli Gurriel draped around them, but Alvarez is headed for MVP votes and Pena had a 2-homer day today, representing 2 of the 3 runs the Astros were able to score. Pena's total is now 11 homers and 30 RBIs in 58 games, very much doing a lot in a small amount of time. Same with Josh Hader, who was activated midyear, he's got 12 saves and a 1.35 ERA in 22 appearances, this is vintage Hader with no real troubles. Definitely a huge addition to a really rough bullpen with a broken Bryan Abreu and a lot of mostly okay performances.

'Broken' is a good word for a lot of these guys. Lance McCullers just got DFA'd by the Brewers because he didn't really have anything left. Cristian Javier has a 9.37 ERA and is struggling mightily. Ronel Blanco's gotten absolutely annihilated in both his starts back. Tatsuya Imai still hasn't fully figured out MLB pitching. Even Mike Burrows somehow couldn't handle pitching for a better team. Even if they keep worming their way up the standings, the lack of sturdy pitching will do the Astros in. Everyone is so tired. So exhausted. EVEN FRAMBER VALDEZ IS FATIGUED OVER IN DETROIT.

The Astros could still persist in the top of the AL West standings, and they may even make a run...but again, it's the case of an Astros team that refuses to realize that they are not capable of meeting the moment. This is not the team, and this is not the year. 

Coming Tomorrow- A future Hall of Famer having a very human season for the first time since his early 20s. 

Practical Magic

 The Pirates currently lead the league in inspired nicknames. They already have Jhostynxon "The Password" Garcia, and the beloved Brandon "Bamm-Bamm" Lowe. Now here comes a new power hitter named Esmerlyn Valdez, and he goes by the too-perfect nickname of 'The Magician'. Esmerlyn, the Magician. These things write themselves.

Anyway, Valdez has been the spark of this latest Pirates upswing, as his power hitting has been a welcome new addition to a lineup that, one might argue, didn't need the power boost considering Lowe, Ryan O'Hearn, Bryan Reynolds and Spencer Horwitz are here. But Valdez is young, confident, and already has 13 homers and 34 RBIs in 35 games, plus a crazy 1.063 OPS. This kid is already something, and has turned the Pirates into a potential wild card threat again. They're ahead of the Cardinals in the standings? Remember when we all thought the Cardinals were gonna be something, then we remembered they had no starting pitching? The Pirates have starting pitching, a working power core, AND rookies like Konnor Griffin and Esmerlyn Valdez making things even better.

The rotation is also pretty impressive all the way through, for the first time in a while. It's not just Skenes! Skenes is extremely helpful, but Braxton Ashcraft's 9-4 with a 3.95 ERA, Jared Jones is looking like his old self after 10 games with a 3.72 ERA, and both Mitch Keller and Bubba Chandler are at least eating innings and having some good starts in the midst of mostly 4ish ERA seasons. Whatever, Carmen Mlodzinski is there if things go haywire, even if he's still not wild about being a long man. Still a great situation. 5 strong choices, a sixth if things go wrong, and Connor Wietgrefe if things go really wrong. Better than the usual strategy of Paul Skenes and a bunch of guys who will be traded. 

The Pirates are on the verge of something, but this Cubs series is testing them. The bullpen still isn't great, and sending Dennis Santana out on a rail is only so much help. I really hope the Pirates can shop around for relief pieces at the deadline. They'd be a sneaky landing place for some of the more efficient relief pieces on the board, and it could help them stay in the race rather than die off immediately. I know they made some deals a couple years ago at the deadline and it didn't do them any good, but it's better than not trying, and the Pirates have gotten a lot out of not trying. It's given them a nice playoff drought that they're trying to end. And hopefully this is the team that can do it.

Coming Tonight: Still one of the best closers in baseball, in case anybody cares.