deMystified

 

Well, we were due. A positively average season from probable future Hall of Famer Jacob deGrom. After years of lights-out work, it was bound to happen eventually.

Like Paul Skenes' more comparatively-average 2026, deGrom, on paper, isn't doing too badly. He's 7-5, has a 3.48 ERA, 115 Ks, a 0.993 WHIP. One of the best pitchers on the Rangers, and pretty healthy to boot. But considering what we've seen deGrom do, it does feel like a step down. The last time deGrom had a season with an ERA over 3.10 was 2017, where he had a bloated 3.53 ERA, while notching 15 wins and getting a 4.2 WAR. To him, those are scary numbers. Everybody else would kill for a season like that. 2018-2021, deGrom goes to work, winning 2 Cy Youngs, leading the league in ERA in 2018 with a 1.70, striking out nearly everyone, and eventually getting a bit injury-hampered. But even while he was fighting injuries, deGrom still had a 2.50 or a 1.50 ERA. Which made last year's return to form, with a 2.97 ERA, all the more exciting. 

So here are some things that are true. deGrom, in 2026, is on pace to eclipse his 2025 strikeout total of 185. The Rangers are improving, so there's a chance that his ERA could drop as the second half rages on. This could end up being another banner year for the legendary starter. But even if all of those things happen, this will still go down as one of the most pedestrian seasons of his career. Considering that he just turned 38, it's understandable. I still blame the Mets for not calling him up til he was 26. Yes, he missed all of 2011 recovering from surgery, but he could have seen time in 2013. Harvey was out, it'd have timed up. But alas. 

The less-distressing news, I suppose, is that an average deGrom season is happening in a season of many average years for this Rangers team. Nathan Eovaldi, despite 9 wins and 110 Ks, has a 4.02 ERA that he's been trying to get down since a disastrous first month and a half. MacKenzie Gore, gotten for his velocity, is 5-7 with a 4.31 ERA. Corey Seager's been on and off the IL, and has hit .182 when healthy. Wyatt Langford's also been back and forth from the IL. Even Josh Smith is having a rough year. The team is now in 2nd in the AL West, ahead of the A's, but they're only one game over .500. They had a really good week last week, and while that can be leverage for a bit, we don't know if it's sustainable, especially for a scattered lineup that's relying on Jake Burger, Joc Pederson and a non ironically great Josh Jung season at the moment.

I don't think the Rangers will be sellers later this month, they're on the cusp of 'good'. If they sell anyone it'll be someone disposable, a reliever here or there. They might even buy, who knows. I just don't see this team, which isn't even the best version of this kind of Rangers team, going especially deep. But at least deGrom's healthy and doing his best.

Coming Tonight: One of the best hitters on the Padres right now. Hold your applause. 

2026 All-Star Rosters: Who You Callin' Legend?

 

Before I get into the specifics of who'll be occupying my city in a couple weeks, a word on how asinine the system of roster reveals is. A couple days ago, someone posted on Twitter that the streets of Philadelphia were already laden with banners depicting the all-star selections and nominees, guys like James Wood and Matt Olson and Nick Kurtz, two days before the 'official' release. So if the people that make the banners know ahead of time....and the teams know ahead of time....why draw it out so the fans, who this is FOR, know last? It's the same energy of holding a wedding right above a train station in 100 degree heat. Not even pretending it's about the common folk anymore.

Alright, alright, so they did announce the rosters tonight, for the benefit of us, and they had to act surprised as if everybody in the industry hadn't known for a week. When they do the Oscars, only the people in the back know what's in the envelopes. It's not like you cut to Timothee Chalamet and he mouths 'I lost' to the camera. There's speculation, but it doesn't come off like a badly kept secret. That's what this feels like now.

Anyway. The thing I do every year. Right.

Last week I made a bunch of predictions of who'd make the roster, which would inform my reactions to the actual decisions made. They were based on who was having the best seasons, who would be picked by the league AND the players, and who was the most deserving from each squad. These picks were made with enough of the voting of the starting lineup having elapsed, so I guessed all of those pretty much, and was spot-on. Everybody else I took some wild guesses with, and now we're gonna see how far off I was.

So, let's start with the AL:

Starters:

C: Shea Langeliers, A's. Love that it's happening, more deserving than Kirk. Way ta go.

1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays. So...so the A's fans could vote Langeliers, but they couldn't vote for the guy who's having an MVP season?? That's the part that vexes me. Vladdie starts every year, most of the time he deserves to, this year he's been kinda meh. Nick Kurtz deserves to start. The Jays massive outweighed even the most sensible of the already-small A's fanbase, which is wild because Jacob Wilson started last year. Anyway, Vlad I kinda get but...really should have been Kurtz. Or Rice. [UPDATE: Apparently Vladdie seems to know this, and is sitting this one out. Kurtz gets to start in his place. As it should have been all along.]

2B: Ernie Clement, Blue Jays. This is where the Jays voting massive made themselves the most clear, as he led the AL. Honestly, good for him. Deserves an accolade for how great he's been.

SS: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals. No brainer.

3B: Junior Caminero, Rays. If J-Ram hadn't been hurt it'd have been closer, but Caminero's EARNED this after the last week of power.

OF: Mike Trout, Angels. Absolutely. I'm glad he seems to be healthy enough to make the game.

OF: Aaron Judge, Yankees. Yes, but won't be playing, which we kinda knew and could have maybe resulted in a different final 3. Cody Bellinger should take his spot.

OF: Byron Buxton, Twins. So happy this is happening. Deserves it.

DH: Yordan Alvarez, Angels. Of course. Who else, other than Yandy Diaz, deserved it more?

Reserves:

C: Dillon Dingler, Tigers. Called this one, he's been excellent.

C: Adley Rutschman, Orioles. Did not call this one, I A.) thought Gunnar Henderson would be the O's nod and B.) thought Rice would negate the need for a third catcher. But fine with this.

1B: Ben Rice, Yankees. Deserves it.

1B: Nick Kurtz, A's. Deserves to start. 

2B: Travis Bazzana, Guardians. Called it. What a year from the rookie.

SS: Kevin McGonigle, Tigers. I thought Gunnar Henderson would get this spot, can't be too mad at McGonigle getting his due though.

3B: Miguel Vargas, White Sox. Called it. Him being the only White Sox rep is an absolute travesty and proof of league bias.

OF: Cody Bellinger, Yankees. Duh. Should start.

OF: Randy Arozarena, Mariners. I thought they'd give it to Julio but Randy's honestly had the better season. Like Vargas, him being the only Mariner, especially when two last place teams get two reps apiece, is a CRIME.

OF: Riley Greene, Tigers. This is a pretty savvy pick, but I honestly thought Wilyer Abreu would go here. Fine with this though.

DH: Yandy Diaz, Rays. It'd have been a shame if he didn't the way he's been hitting.

Pitchers:

SP: Dylan Cease, Blue Jays. A shoo-in, for sure.

SP: Parker Messick, Guardians. I actually guessed Gavin Williams would get the nod, but this makes more sense.

SP: Drew Rasmussen, Rays. Called it.

SP: Joe Ryan, Twins. Called it, deserves it.

SP: Cam Schlittler, Yankees. Absolutely, and he should start.

SP: Ranger Suarez, Red Sox. DID NOT CALL THIS ONE. I had this spot going to Nick Martinez.

SP: Michael Wacha, Royals. I don't agree with this one at all. You mean to tell me that you didn't have room for Tarik Skubal but you had room for Michael Wacha? Not to disparage Wacha, he's having a fine season, but I thought Skubal deserved a spot. OR. OR HOW ABOUT LOGAN GILBERT? OR ANY MARINERS PITCHER? Either of those guys would have fit better than a Wacha rep. Schneider only wanted to carry 7 starters. Alrighty.

RP: Bryan Baker, Rays. This one surprised me. Martinez doesn't get it but Baker does. I do think it does ultimately make sense, I just don't know if I'd have included as many relievers as it entails to get to him on the list.

RP: Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox. At the last moment I swapped Jacob Latz to his spot but he was deserving of it. 

RP: Jacob Latz, Rangers. Only Rangers nod. I'd have thought Ezequiel Duran would have squeaked in but I guess not.

RP: Cade Smith, Guardians. Shoo-in, of course.

RP: Louis Varland, Blue Jays. Nobody's been doing it better, so of course he's here.

NL:

Starters:

C: Drake Baldwin, Braves. I do think he deserves this, I'm just worried because he's gone very cold since coming off the IL.

1B: Freddie Freeman, Dodgers. Matt Olson deserved this but I can't stay too mad at Freddie.

2B: Ozzie Albies, Braves. Can't really argue with that.

SS: C.J. Abrams, Nationals. With the season he's having, absolutely.

3B: Max Muncy, Dodgers. I guess so. I don't know if there was anybody that deserved it more, I just feel like the Dodgers fans really made their voices heard this year.

OF: Brandon Marsh, Phillies. I am 100% here for this. I dunno how we got Philly to vote for this, especially considering Harper, Schwarber and Turner couldn't get the votes. But I'm grateful.

OF: Juan Soto, Mets. Very much atones for last year's snub.

OF: Andy Pages, Dodgers. I was thinking Acuna would win the vote and just hand the position to Pages, but we cut the middleman out here.

DH: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers. Again, Schwarber might have deserved this more but we've gotta have Ohtani there. In his prime, with LA, we have to have him represent the sport.

Reserves:

C: William Contreras, Brewers. Called it, deserves it.

C: Hunter Goodman, Rockies. Called it, also deserves it. Only Rockie, as predicted.

1B: Matt Olson, Braves. Should be starting.

1B: Bryce Harper, Phillies. This is a surprise. Good surprise though. This was apparently Rob Manfred's 'legend pick'. Let's examine that. Last year, Rob Manfred came into the Phillies clubhouse with his pro-salary-cap propaganda, and Bryce Harper told him to leave, and the idea from the league was that the worker advocating for better wages was being the bad guy. So...what do we make of this??? Is Manfred trying to extend an olive branch before ensuring a lockout? What the hell is this move? I'm happy about it, Harper's having a great year, but...it's such an odd choice, making THIS the 'legend' pick. Cause it also reinforces the Dombrowski 'oh he's past his peak' thing, expressly calling him a legend. Like, you know if Verlander was healthy, Manfred would have advocated for him, but in lieu of that, we have...this really awkward move. I dunno, man. It gets stranger..

1B: Sal Stewart, Reds. Okay, so, Harper's shoehorned in, right? So that means we are carrying FOUR first baseman. Five if you count Muncy, who's fundamentally a first baseman. Stewart plays first AND third, but first is his primary position. I think Stewart deserves this, but I had Matt Chapman in this spot because ideally, at some point, a third baseman should play third base. Like...

2B: Luis Arraez, Giants. Like, we do have Luis Arraez, who could play third....and also he's the SIXTH first baseman here. But like...you've got to get at least someone who's good at playing third, right? Matt Chapman's your guy. Or get Bregman or Arenado or somebody like that. No disrespect to Arraez, who deserves this, but if there's a lot of errors at third, don't be shocked.

SS: Otto Lopez, Marlins. Deserves it. 

OF: Corbin Carroll, D-Backs. Called it, here for it.

OF: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs. Called it, and called he'd be the only Cub. 

OF: Jordan Walker, Cardinals. Did not call this! Thought it'd be J.J. Wetherholt. Happy for Walker though.

OF: James Wood, Nationals. Didn't call this either, figured Michael Harris would have his spot. This honestly makes more sense though. Would have preferred Chourio making it in any case.

DH: Kyle Schwarber, Phillies. Wouldn't make sense without him. Remember, there could be a tiebreaker swing-off.

Pitchers:

SP: Chase Burns, Reds. Deserves it, for sure.

SP: Max Meyer, Marlins. Absolutely called it, deserves it.

SP: Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers. Is not going to play. Which is fair, he's starting next sunday. If there's suddenly a vacancy...might I suggest adding Zack Wheeler, like you should have all along???

SP: Eduardo Rodriguez, D-Backs. Didn't expect this one. To me, Kyle Harrison deserves this spot. 

SP: Chris Sale, Braves. Absolutely.

SP: Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies. Should start now that the Miz isn't.

SP: Paul Skenes, Pirates. Would ya believe I actually thought Braxton Ashcraft would be here in his place? I guess Skenes kinda does have to be there though.

SP: Logan Webb, Giants. I had Wheeler in his spot, but Webb's such a good pitcher that I can't be too mad.

SP: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers. 100%. Wrobleski should have had a chance, but Yoshi's something special.

RP: Jhoan Duran, Phillies. In Philadelphia? That's a no-brainer.

RP: Raisel Iglesias, Braves. At the last second I swapped Aaron Ashby into his place, but Iglesias is having a terrific year. Maybe Ashby slides in to replace a guy pitching sunday.

RP: Mason Miller, Padres. Absolutely deserves it. Wild that he's the only Padre.

So yeah, aside from one or two really painful omissions [Wheeler, NL third baseman, the rest of the Mariners], this is pretty spot on. But of course, people are gonna start getting injured and the second and third team guys are gonna land on here, and I'm not gonna vibe with all of them. So I hope for prolonged health and sunday rainouts for all of these folks, and for a really fun Philly-set ASG. Is that too much to ask?? Probably.

First It Giveth..

 

On Wednesday, the Chicago Cubs won a baseball game against the San Diego Padres, 23-3. Dansby Swanson had 3 home runs and 8 RBIs, coming off a game where he had 2 home runs and 3 RBIs. Then yesterday, the Chicago Cubs lost a baseball game 17-1 to the St. Louis Cardinals. Dansby Swanson, who came into the game hitting .210, now sits at a measly .208. I know, if you can't take it, don't deal it, but it's gotta be a wild 48 hours for the Cubs. The Padres might even be a better overall team than the Cardinals, but in those games, the stars both aligned and slammed shut to provide the outcomes we got.

The Cubs are a truly confusing team, in that they should be better than they are, and oftentimes do capitalize on the talent they have but not in a way that boosts them long term. Without Justin Steele, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, Ben Brown and Edward Cabrera, this team is sort of balancing plates trying to keep teams down. Matt Boyd is back, he's been fine thus far, if still a bit imperfect. Imanaga's been struggling but is still a decent option. Rea's having an awful year, Assad's mostly eating innings, and David Peterson got the snot kicked out of him yesterday. Additionally, the bullpen's falling apart as well, with Palencia, Hoby Milner, Phil Maton, Ethan Roberts, Riley Martin, Hunter Harvey and Shelby Miller all out. If the pitching injuries was actually a map of the active roster this would be a first place team. Unfortunately it is not, and this team is just plugging guys into places [Bryse Wilson, Trent Thornton, Tyler Ferguson] and hoping nothing goes wrong.

And it sucks because this team truly can hit, and confidently so. The team's sent down Moises Ballesteros, who went cold after May, and Michael Conforto's been playing DH in his place, and he's not half bad. Hitting .248, 7 homers and 21 RBIs. Not Mets good but a good role player. Seiya Suzuki's got 13 homers and 42 RBIs, and Ian Happ's got 17 homers and 41 RBIs, meaning with PCA that's an entire outfield of solid run producers. With the exception of the DH spot, it's an entire lineup of people with a WAR of 1.4 or higher [weird that Nico Hoerner's bringing up the rear after a great start], and all of these guys know how to score runs and keep pitching scared.

But, as we've seen time and time again, that means nothing without a comprehensive pitching staff. And the Brewers are leading this division, handsomely, because they can backup their lights-out lineup with guys like Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison, Brandon Sproat, Brandon Woodruff and Shane Drohan. The Cubs don't really have more than just one of those guys right now, at best. Which is why a team can take them for 17 points. I think if this pitching staff can grow back over time, and recoup to the level its potential let on, this team could make a wild card run, but...even then, Cabrera was on and off before getting hurt, Taillon's just completely off this year, and there's no chance of Horton being back til midyear next year. Steele is still a 'wait and see' thing, and who even knows what he'll look like when he gets back.

The Cubs should hold onto days like Wednesday, where they can take a team for over 20 points, and figure out how to get around days like yesterday. Cause they have a team that could compete, it's just not complete yet.

Coming Tonight: A man I've never known to throw a pedestrian season...yet here he is throwing one..

Always Be Closing: Filling the Shoes

 

I've written about the disturbing lack of actual closing pitchers in today's 'RP1 takes it til they suck' mindset. Who do we have right now, we have Aroldis Chapman, Raisel Iglesias, Josh Hader, Kenley Jansen I suppose, and that's basically it. In another year or so I could include Jhoan Duran but we've gotta see what he's capable of over time. Everyone else is sort of holding onto their streaks and seeing if they can make a thing out of it. Gone are the days of Troy Percivals and Todd Joneses and Armando Benitezes. It's very much gig mentality. What can I do this year, forget about next year.

Which is why losing Emmanuel Clase, one of the single most dominant closers in baseball, was such a crushing blow for the Guardians. Nobody else actually commits to keeping a closing job like he does, and the dude just bets his way out of a long career. It's heartbreaking. And then, after you thought you'd have a sure thing for years, you're back to 'well who's RP1'. Just like that. Thankfully this happens to a team like Cleveland that already has a great bullpen, but it's certainly not ideal.

Cade Smith was in his second year when he got the closing gig. His freshman season was an eventful one, as he kept a 1.91 ERA in 74 games, with a 2.4 WAR and 103 Ks, plus 16 postseason strikeouts. Last year he was given the closing job upon Clase's absence, and while he blew the occasional save, he still ended the year with 16, plus a 2.93 ERA, 8 wins and 104 Ks. And how he leads the league in saves with 26, and is more than likely headed for his [well-deserved] first ASG. 

But...Cade Smith's big save season is happening in spite of what might be the weakest season of his career so far. His ERA's over 3, which hasn't happened yet, and his WHIP is also at his highest, of 1.200. He's allowing more hits, and showing more vulnerability, even if it means he's got 26 saves. Sometimes getting 40 saves happens to a Jeanmar Gomez or a Roberto Osuna, without the actual closing prowess to be good at the other aspects of the job. And so this season is just telling me how much more fit Smith is to be an eighth inning man, rather than a full closer. But it's really not his fault. There are so few closers these days, and so many more are thrust into that position without really having the gene. Sometimes you get lucky and wind up with Jacob Latz, a reliever-turned-starter-turned-closer, who's found great success in the ninth. Sometimes he will be the guy for a while, and sometimes he's just the guy right now. Cade Smith is looking like the latter, but you can never be too sure. 

The Guards have it so they're tied for first with two more games played, and this weekend series against the White Sox will no doubt decide it. They've won their last two, and they're got Rocchio and DeLauter hot, plus Steven Kwan FINALLY getting things going and playing as well as he usually does, albeit with a slightly shakier average. Once they get J-Ram back [hopefully soon] they should lock the division back up. It'll be a fairly close race to the top though, and seeing as last year proved anyone can get hot in this division at any time, they'd better be hanging on for dear life.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who hadn't been above .200 since May who suddenly went on the single wildest three day stretch in years. 

Getting his Due-bon

 

Here is a list of some people that Mauricio Dubon has been traded for before becoming an actual starting infielder, in his age-32 season, after 8 years in the bigs.

• Tyler Thornburg, a Brewers relief asset who was traded immediately before requiring surgery and barely playing any healthy games for the team, the Sox, he was traded to.
• Drew Pomeranz, who actually benefitted from a trade to Milwaukee that year.
• Michael Papierski, a guy who no one had thought of before or since.
• Nick Allen, the major league baseball equivalent of how Danny DeVito described himself in Twins ["you're telling me that I'm the leftover crap???"]

It took a WHILE for Mauricio Dubon to find a fit. It somehow didn't happen with the Giants, because right as he was about to take 2nd in 2020, Donovan Solano had an incredible breakout year. He tried to break in with the Astros, but most of the time he was stuck behind Jose Altuve or Jeremy Pena, resorting to being a backup. With Houston he developed such a fan following, even as a utility man, that the fans were upset when the team traded him. Luckily, things worked themselves out, Ha-Seong Kim got injured, and the stage was set for Dubon to get his just desserts.

Dubon as the Braves' starting shortstop has worked extremely well. He's been great on defense, AND he's got 44 RBIs and 8 homers. Offense was never the main emphasis with Dubon, but on a team like this you can't blame him for trying to blend in. Him and Ozzie Albies make an impeccable double play combo, and there's even a chance he squeezes onto the ASG roster. I'm really happy he's become a nice part of this team, and joined so many guys [Harris, Albies, Baldwin, Olson I guess] who are time-tested and proven in Atlanta. This team can still take newcomers to the fold. It seems to have worked with Dominic Smith as well.

Ultimately, though the Braves are heading into July a little worse for wear than expected. They went 10-14 this month, and the losses of Ronald Acuna, Robert Suarez and Spencer Strider might have something to do with it. They got Baldwin back mid-month, but he's gone insanely cold, and has only started hitting again fairly recently. Elder, Holmes and Perez have skidded a little in the last month, as...honestly expected. The team is still good, and still has the pieces to compete, but the Phillies just keep creeping up, and it may come to a boil in the next month if the Braves don't regain momentum.

I do have some hope for this Braves team. Until June, they had so much going for them, and when good they're better than anybody, even the Dodgers. They could get back there if they wanted, and I hope they do.

Coming Tonight: The top closer in baseball is a hard-throwing specialist from Cleveland, and somehow it's a different one than usual. 

Okay, Fine, the Rays are Good.

 

No disrespect here. The Rays are in first, and they're earning it. No 'it's cause the Yankees suck', no 'where are the stars?', none of that. Junior Caminero's gone on a home run hitting tear, Drew Rasmussen's one of the best pitchers in baseball, Yandy Diaz is a total hitting machine, Jonathan Aranda's finally getting hot, and somehow they've been able to make a closer out of former Orioles bullpen stalwart Bryan 'Shake 'n Bake' Baker. I can't even be mad, they're just really good right now. Won 7 straight, they get to play the Astros this weekend and then we get to see how long the Yankees want to drag out the losing stretch. 

Drew Rasmussen has been a key rotation figure for the Rays ever since coming over here. I gave them a lot of shit for trading Willy Adames just so Franco could get playing time, but they were able to, like so many other times, offload soon-to-be-wanting-money talent for a younger, more lucrative piece. So they got Rasmussen at the exact correct time, he had a stellar 2022, missed parts of two seasons with injuries, had a stellar 2023 and is looking at a second consecutive all-star appearance. Dude's just a sneaky-good, hard-throwing workhorse whose ERA hasn't dipped above 3 since coming over. That's honestly the crazy part, he's never finished a season with an ERA higher than 2.85 as a Ray. As a Brewer he was all over the place, but he really nailed things down in Tampa, and became a very consistent guy. I'm not sure if he's the ace, Shane McClanahan is still technically top dog, but Rasmussen is pitching better. 

I do think it's slightly worrying that we haven't seen Ryan Pepiot yet this season, but it speaks to the Rays' low-budget dominance that they're keeping the rest of the AL East at bay using guys like Nick Martinez and Griffin Jax. They technically don't have a fifth starter right now, what with Steven Matz hurt, but it's the Rays so they're using 5 relievers in a trench coat, and suddenly that's working. Again, the bullpen's been better, but Kevin Kelly and Bryan Baker have been pretty good. Baker has 21 saves. They wouldn't let him close with the O's but the Rays had an opening. I dunno why they had an opening at closer, I feel like they had a guy for that all set up last year..

I think the biggest twists of this season for the Rays are A.) that the contact game is being led by Yandy Diaz, who's hitting .329 and already has 100 hits, and B.) that this team that's known for its contact game and has two proven starters who have not hit any home runs and are not expected to...also has a pretty decent power core, just from Aranda and Caminero. Caminero has 24 homers right now. He committed to the Home Run Derby before anyone was even thinking about the Home Run Derby. Somebody just said 'hello' to him, and he went 'I WANNA DO THE DERBY AGAIN'. And what the hell do you say to that?? No??? 'I wanna potentially ruin my swing for the rest of the season' 'Okay, go ahead, champ.' There's a reason there isn't one of these for pitchers. 

Anyway. The Rays are really good right now. Is it sustainable? Who knows. Yankees are technically the better team, and they do this every June. A month from now, if the Yankees still suck, we'll see. With the exception of 2023, the Yankees remember to stop sucking at some point. We'll see if the Rays can outrun them there, with their four guys that don't hit home runs and their three guys that aren't here to hit at all..

Coming Tomorrow- The Astros, like absolute fools, traded him, right as an opening emerged in his new team's starting lineup. To say he's made the most of it would be an understatement. 

Fred Over Heels

 

Realistically, there probably aren't going to be a lot of new members of the 3000 hit club in the next decade or so. The time of people shooting for 200 hits instead of 50 homers and 200 strikeouts is over, and it's made it difficult for career hits totals to keep stacking up over time. Pujols, Ichiro and Cabrera got past the mark because the 2000s still valued contact hitting. Freddie Freeman has over 2500 hits, and is theoretically young enough, and in enough of a peak period, to cross that threshold. But he's also 36, and he only has one more year on his contract. Plus, even if he doesn't get to 3000 hits, Freeman's still a Hall of Famer. It's obvious now, and the 2024 World Series cemented that case. The 3000th hit would just be frosting rather than the key to entry.

This mostly says a lot about just how great Freddie Freeman's been for his whole career. There's only one season in sixteen full ones that ended with a WAR total lower than 2, and that was Freeman's 2011 rookie campaign, where he hit 21 homers with 76 RBIs and a .282 average. Literally every other season has been a 2 or higher WAR, with five seasons reaching 5 WAR or higher. Every season since 2013, Freeman's sported an .800 OPS or higher, and his lowest batting average in this period was a .276 average in 2015. Freeman is classic in the sense that in an era where nobody really has a reason to hit .300, he consistently does so and in a way that really helps whatever team he's on. The Dodgers picking him up in 2022 really was perfectly timed, and since then Freeman's continued to give his absolute all, with four straight All-Star Game nominations [followed swiftly by a fifth very shortly]. Where many people figured Freeman would start trailing off, he's stayed consistent, and is still a very crucial piece of the Dodgers' offensive output.

Right now, Freeman has a .293 average, 13 homers, 46 RBIs and a 2.6 WAR. Which is very good. And yet because this team has Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages and Max Muncy on it, it may look comparatively pedestrian. Pages is having an incredible year, with a league-leading 60 RBIs. Ohtani's got 18 homers and 50 RBIs, and he's going 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA in addition. Muncy's got 17 homers and 37 RBIs, and might be starting an ASG along with Freeman. That's your core, that's your central guys...and that doesn't even include Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker, who are both having down years, Will Smith, who's hurt, or Teoscar Hernandez, who was just activated from the IL. The team is that good, and Freeman is both crucial and taken for granted at the same time.

Not a ton of flaws from this Dodgers team recently. Maybe Sheehan and Sasaki could be doing a little better, but when the top 3 are Ohtani, Yamamoto and Wrobleski, and Eric Lauer's hanging out as a very sharp 6th guy, it's not the biggest issue. 

The Dodgers have to play the Padres this weekend. If you've been around the last few years, you know what this means. The Padres are 12 games behind LA this time, so it's not like a 'if they sweep, they take the division' situation like the last few Padres-Dodgers series'. Basically, every time the Padres are getting good, they have to play the Dodgers and can't capitalize. But here the Padres have nothing to capitalize on so maybe they'll actually win.

Coming Tonight: Shane McClanahan, I'm sorry, but you might not be the ace in Tampa anymore. That is, unless the Rays decide to trade this guy very soon.