Championship Series' Day 4: Jake Beats Blake

 

Now are ya listening? Now are ya paying attention? The Brewers are 3 up on the Dodgers, and have put them in killswitch position. The press has been hyping up the Dodgers' threepeat narrative all year, even saw this series as a back-and-forth brawl, and...the Brewers are up 3-0. Against the monolith. 

The wild part was, until that seventh inning, Blake Snell was having the better start. Bobby Gasser was keeping the score down for the most part, but Snell, leadoff homer notwithstanding, worked, striking out 9 in 6 innings. But, in a mirror to Kevin Cash's decision to pull Snell prematurely in the 2020 World Series, Dave Roberts let Snell go out for one more, then the Jake Bauers homer happens, the Mitchell homer happens, and the rest of the game doesn't really come any closer to a Dodgers' win. Ironic, I guess. Dave Roberts might lose this series by trying to out manage Kevin Cash before he even gets to play against him.

Also, the Dodgers' mistakes are beginning to pile up. Justin Wrobleski went wild and a run scored. Shohei Ohtani still isn't hitting at all, and now Freeman and Pages might be going cold. The bullpen the Dodgers worked so hard to avoid using last year is once again blowing games, save for Evan Phillips. And meanwhile, the Brewers are just the better team right now. The defense has been excellent, especially the outfield defense Mitchell and Lara are working with. The bullpen, regardless of Abner Uribe's shoddy work, is still great, and D.L. Hall gets the added kudos for keeping down the Dodgers for two and a third as the Brewers kept plugging away. Chourio's RBIs are continuing to pile up, chasing Andruw Jones' pre-23 record. The road loss narrative is over, the flaws haven't really been showing up. 

One more win and the Brewers do something they haven't done since 1982. Tyler Glasnow will get the ball to prevent it from happening, though I assume he won't be the only one trying to keep the Dodgers alive, as those ratings have gotten be occurring to Manfred about now. The one concerning thing is I'm not sure who the Brewers will start. Dustin May? He's had a spotty track record. Shane Drohan or Kyle Harrison? Or would they need to be opened for? My wild card pick is Chad Patrick. Let him do 3 innings, then have Drohan or May coast, and hopefully that works. The goal is that whatever the plan ends up being will be enough to stop LA, and this has worked so far. 

A sweep would be insane. It's not definite, because these are still the Dodgers, but...what if, man? Especially after 2025. What if that's what happens?

Championship Series' Day 3: He Wants Revenge

 

I figured the Rays wouldn't make things easier for the Guardians, considering that the Rays are still the most ferocious team remaining arguably, and last night's Game 2 was exactly what I figured. A dominant pitching performance, some contact work, and exploiting the weaknesses of the imperfections of the opponent. Jose Ramirez was the hero in Game 1, and he was the cause of the run spillage in Game 2. Freddy Peralta clicked, as the Rays knew he would given the change of scenery, and gave the ace performance they knew he would. And guys like Ben Williamson, Jonny DeLuca and Liam Hicks kept the train rolling for Tampa as they wrapped up the initial stretch at the Trop.

I'd been pulling for a Guards-Brewers series, and a Rays-Brewers series...honestly wouldn't be too bad either, seeing as neither franchise has ever won, and both are very like-minded contact-heavy teams. But last night pointed out the existence of a very fun narrative. You see...the Brewers are two games from a World Series despite trading away their #1 asset at the beginning of the season, Freddy Peralta. It did get them Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat, neither of which are on the current playoff roster for Milwaukee, and it cleared the way for Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan and Logan Henderson to have definite rotation spots, but considering that they still managed to compete and make it to another NLCS, trading a guy like Peralta is still a dodgy move. The Rays had every right to take advantage of his market value, and him becoming a hero for them right now is the result of everything that's happened in the last year. Furthermore, it gives the perfect revenge narrative for Peralta to try and win a World Series against his old team.

If you'll recall, this nearly happened last year. We were somewhat close to a Brewers-Mariners World Series last year [and I'd have preferred this]. Peralta came up with the Mariners, and was dealt to Milwaukee after the 2015 season, in exchange for Adam Lind, who did approximately dick with the Mariners. He could have gotten his revenge against the M's, but neither team made it. Here, the revenge plot returns. It works twofold, because if the Rays beat Cleveland, Junior Caminero gets his revenge after being traded for Tobias Myers, who coincidentally was part of the trade that sent Peralta to Queens earlier this year. 

Lots of fun revenge plots stewing if the Rays make a World Series, which is looking a little likelier than it was, though I'm certainly not counting out the Guardians yet. It does make me a little more intrigued about seeing the Rays advance, even if it's still not the outcome I'd prefer.

Tonight, we have Bobby Gasser vs. Blake Snell in LA. The numbers would tell you one story, but recent stats say something a little different. We'll see how this one goes. If the Brewers could win some games on the road this time it could be rather helpful. 

Championship Series' Day 2: Little by Little

So I was out for the last few days, driving all over the northeast. I missed posting about the Guards winning, and the Brewers winning Game 1. I was driving yesterday and completely missed anything about either CS game til I got home. Both outcomes, however, were ones I greatly enjoyed.

Let's talk about this Brewers team, because it's working exactly as a great baseball team should. There's no exorbitant contracts, a lot of homegrown, talented players in their primes, some excellent, well-thought-out roster moves that have built a strong team all over, and clutch ability that most teams would dream of. And they have taken two games at home against the Dodgers, who've spent their way to this monolithic pursuit of a threepeat. Fundamentally, the scrappier, less-expensive team should win, and so far they have been. 

The Dodgers have starting depth, let's make this clear, and the next two games in LA they'll have Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow on the mound, which is better than the Milwaukee plan of Robert Gasser and what I will only assume will be a bullpen game. But the fact that Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson were able to comfortably outduel Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto...that is damning. Sku is still one of the best pitchers in the league, and Yoshi's one of the best postseason pitchers ever. And this Brewers team got to them both. Getting these two games over LA, even if the Dodgers come back and take some of the LA games, which is very likely, is so important. You neutralize them immediately and ensure they can't just outmatch you from the jump.

Credit also goes to William Contreras for his Game 2 heroics, Luis Lara for his spark plug offensive spot in Game 1, and his continued defensive dominance, and the bullpen, including Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby and Trevor Megill, who've all been lights out so far. I'm absolutely loving this narrative, and hope the Brewers can hold onto the momentum even as the Dodgers threaten to wake up.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are the ultimate underdog right now. They flirted with .500 all year, only took the division late in the season, were down 2-0 heading to Chicago for Game 3, and now have a chance to get to their first World Series in 10 years, with a team that isn't the Yankees being their last hurdle. 

That Game 1 win seemed elusive for a while, as Drew Rasmussen was winning the pitching duel until he finally gave up a run in the sixth. Foster Griffin was chased at the end of the fourth, which was longer than a lot of Cleveland fans thought after that first inning. This game came down to who had the better bullpen, and once again the answer was certainly not Tampa. Tyler Wells gave up the game-breaking RBI to Nathaniel Lowe, once again on a ragtag team for the postseason [just not the Rays or Rangers], and Cole Sulser squandered the opportunity to let the Rays catch up by giving up RBIs to Ramirez and Adell in the ninth. The Guards' pen, meanwhile, aside from Sabrowski giving up a solo shot to Cedric Mullins, were pretty spotless.

Drew Rasmussen was the Rays' best bet at starter, and while Freddy Peralta could have another start like his Yanks one, the Guardians will have Parker Messick and that game 1 cushion. The Rays may still be the favorites, but the Guardians could be a decent match for them. 

Guards-Rays Game 2 tonight. Could tie it up, or could continue the trend. I'm still pulling for Brewers-Guardians, what a fun time that would be. 

Division Series' Day 5: Three Endings and One Second Act

 

Second consecutive section of the playoffs where three series' leave the other one hanging.

The sugarplums have faded a bit in Chicago. They all thought the sweep was possible and then they remember, 'oh right, we've only got one good starter and a bunch of guys we'd rather have do 3 innings of relief'. And so Game 3 was a 9-3 Cleveland victory, because they had Foster Griffin for most of the game and he did more than Davis Martin, Noah Schultz or David Sandlin could.

It's very relieving that the Guardians' lineup finally showed up, as people worried they wouldn't [I mean what kind of team would just refuse to hit in a postseason series after dominating offensively all season, right?]. Kwan, Ramirez, Adell, Rocchio and Angel Genao all had excellent plate appearances, and J-Ram quieted any worry he'd be an ineffective postseason piece this year with that game-deciding 2-run triple. 

The White Sox are still in prime position, but they need to cling onto that momentum before the Guardians force a Game 5. 

So the Dodgers are going to another NLCS, and they did it behind their fourth man, who'd really be their second man if injuries hadn't happened. Tyler Glasnow was very good, only giving up one run, and making the work easy for the bullpen. Max Muncy and Andy Pages continued their strong postseasons. They made this one look pretty simple honestly, because they have contingency plans for everything. I'm not calling them a lock for the World Series right now, but it is looking likelier than it was a couple weeks ago, even with their NLCS opponent looking pretty strong.

As for the Braves...I think the first hint that this wasn't the team was that it took them 3 games to eliminate the Phillies when, if they were at their peak, it would have taken them two.

The tragedy about the Braves is that the highlights of this team were so high [Baldwin, Sale, Olson] that once you look below them you see how little depth there was this year. Tyler Mahle was a crucial postseason starter because Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep were nowhere to be found this year. Guys like Mauricio Dubon, Mike Yastrzemski, Dominic Smith and Lane Thomas were novel ideas that went nowhere. The season came down to Raisel Iglesias, and they've had better versions of him.

Next year they're more likely to compete than Philly, but I don't necessarily think they'll run unopposed. 

The Rays are tough, man. They solidified themselves as a World Series threat in this series, and are the team to beat going forward. The ALCS will go through Tampa, either top starter remaining hasn't had the luck Drew Rasmussen has, and Caminero's only just begun. Though Victor Mesa Jr. will be linked to the controversial overturned home run call from this game, his homer in the sixth sealed the game and ensured the sweep would happen. A guy like Mesa, who was an insanely cheap preseason pickup for Tampa this year, has made this team pop as much as people like Ryan Vilade, Bryan Baker, Liam Hicks, Jonny DeLuca and Nick Martinez had. It's the usual Rays-ball mentality of putting the best people in position to succeed, regardless of how much they're making, and it may get them a franchise-first ring. 

That does mean that of the AL candidates, the most recent World Series winner remaining is the Chicago White Sox. Let's keep in mind for a second that the Brewers have never one won, and we really only have one recent W.S. winner remaining at all...and I think you can see where I'll be rooting from here on out. 

I'm running out of things to say in Octobers about this team, guys. Every year 'this is the team', every year 'look at them go', and every year 'what happened?' 

Is it really the case of the Red Sox being so out of steam that they were that easy for the Yanks to beat, and the Rays were so good that none of that production could be mustered? Or did the Yankees once again completely stop working once they got to the division series round? Ben Rice, Spencer Jones and Austin Wells didn't get that memo though, as they all had terrific series. Anthony Volpe also did a nice amount, though in a just world that homer isn't overturned and the Rays run out of good relievers before we do. Ultimately the stamina was not there. Back in the day we didn't have an extra month of the season, it was like two weeks, and some teams are way better at prepping a team for seven months than others. The Yankees are absolutely shit at it. If this was the old playoff bracket they'd have enough momentum to last but they tap out around this time of year every time, and they're not getting any better. It's not 2006 anymore, this isn't sustainable. 

Next year, Judge will be healthy, Jones and Lombard will be everyday options, and Schlittler, Fried, Cole and Rodon will all be healthy and ready to go. If the owners waste what could be a terrific Yankees year before the Yankees themselves can, I'll be pretty mad. 

Anyway, we knew the Brewers had the edge in this series, but man this one was competitive. Back and forth, lead changes, lots of heroes on both sides. That the Brewers pulled it out should not be a knock on SD, they had a great series but just weren't the better team. Robert Gasser was able to be the hero in a start, going 4 innings and only allowing 1 run. He's not as flashy as Miz and Henderson, but he gets the job done. Once again Chourio was the hero, but Sal Frelick and especially Garrett Mitchell had some big moments. 

The Brewers once again have to go through LA to make it to a World Series. But now they can win on the road, and they'll be starting in Milwaukee. And this team's even better than last year's. I think that NLCS could go all seven, and the Dodgers may not have the lay up they had last year.

Again, the Padres tried, and they could have advanced had it not been for a really strong opponent. They did a lot with some gaping holes, and having only 1 real viable postseason starter kind of did them in ultimately. I also think having to put guys like Dustin Harris and Samad Taylor high in the lineup illuminated the lack of real depth unfortunately. Not to knock Samad Taylor, he had a nice season this year and may have finally found a place he can stick around. But Samad Taylor is not Jake Bauers, or Garrett Mitchell, or Joey Ortiz. I assume they will probably be in the mix next year, but the D-Backs will probably want revenge again.

Tonight we see if the White Sox can close things out. I kinda hope they do.

Division Series' Day 3 & 4: The Picture is Forming

 

I wasn't really around the last few days, and I probably should do write ups on these games, just for posterity's sake, so, here goes.

-The White Sox becoming a postseason juggernaut was not something I was predicting but I'm very much here for it. A lot of Cleveland fans are chalking this up to the Guardians' own post-September fade for the second year in a row, but it's important to note that Gavin Williams wasn't the problem that game, and the offense still did what they could. The White Sox are just better right now, and their core is coming to life in a way that feels like it was teased all year but never certain. The usual combo of Murakami, Vargas, Meidroth and Chase Montgomery is getting it done, and rookie Braden Montgomery joined the fun Monday night, with the RBI double that flipped the game.

The Sox are in clinching position today. I know people talked about their side of the bracket as a joke compared to the AL East side but you really never know. The White Sox, if they make the ALCS, could in all theory keep going, regardless of who they play. It's fascinating, but they've got a higher power on their side it seems. 

Speaking of teams that have given up...

I think the difference between the grievances of Guardians fans and the grievances of Yankee fans right now is that the Yankees are actually playing a really good team. NOT THAT THE WHITE SOX AREN'T, they ARE very good, but they are very streaky, and have gotten hot at the exact right time. The Rays are actually a fantastic team that's playing very well right now and have enough put together that a World Series is very much in reach. They also got Freddy Peralta working again, as he dealt against the Yanks even after Drew Rasmussen quieted them earlier. If Peralta is *back*, like fully back, then the Rays could be a nightmare going forward. 

The Yanks did not help matters by making numerous errors and doing nothing at the plate [not you Ben Rice you're doin great]. Aaron Boone finally seems to have an incentive to change the lineup, seeing as the season's on the line and all tonight and if they get swept in front of a home crowd, the fans might genuinely riot. I'm really hoping the Yanks keep the series alive, but they've run out of momentum and the Schlittler card couldn't even save them in Game 2. 

Anyway it must have been a rerun last night because Enrique Hernandez, after hitting .150 during the regular season, had a huge home run against the Braves and brought the Dodgers closer to an NLCS. Hernandez is moving further and further up the postseason home run leaderboard, which is wild for a player who constantly seems otherwise inconsequential during the regular season. It's absolutely wild that he's allowed to do that. Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman just keeps hackin' away and is continuing HIS excellent October luck, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto had another insanely dominant October start. This team really is built for October in a way that no other team is, and the Braves need to figure out if they have anyone at all capable of keeping them down. 

And finally...good for the Padres, honestly. Facing the Brewers' worst starter and a couple of their weakest relievers, they got ahead, hit another ball to the rookie shortstop which he floundered, and kept the Brewers down without Mason Miller. If things go awry tonight, which is always likely, at least they had a cool home win, and at least Jake Cronenworth, after a rough season, got to be the hero by breaking the game open with a homer. 

The stat people are beginning to worry about is that, as good as the Brewers have been in the Pat Murphy era, they're terrible on the road. If the Padres force a Game 5, that'll be yet another road opportunity wasted. Plus, Christian Yelich had his first postseason RBI since 2018, so he's turning things around. Maybe the rest of the team will too. They have Bobby Gasser on the mound tonight, hoping to seal the deal and make another NLCS. I'm kinda pulling for them, even though the Padres may be equally worthy given their recent rallies. 

A lot could happen tonight. All four could end tonight. I don't think they all will, and I kinda hope one team avoids a sweep, but...I guess we'll see.

Division Series' Day 2: All The Right Moves

 

If the Brewers sweep, or win, this series it's not gonna do the Padres' efforts justice. Especially in Game 2. They have been fighting just as hard, and have not been getting the luck. They got production from Luis Campusano, Ty France and some bizarre Brett Harris mumbo-jumbo. And keep in mind, this is a team that bats Brett Harris, whoever he is, and Samad Taylor within the first four spots, and they're still right there in it. The Brewers, as it happens, just seem to be better.

I don't really blame Mason Miller for what happened, although honestly I probably should. Miller has been lights-out all year, he could have evened the series, things got sloppy and the wonder-kid made him regret it. I just think that the Brewers just have the guys for every situation in ways the Padres don't. Christian Yelich is not prime Christian Yelich, but he can still smoke a double and get home thanks to Sal Frelick's similar contact material. David Hamilton had an incredible game yesterday, both defensively and on the base paths, and the Padres really don't have a utility guy like that. And yes, Cooper Pratt made an oopsie that led to a run, but he's also 21 and coming into his own. 

Jackson Chourio right now is how Ronald Acuna thinks he should be viewed. Everything Acuna wants to be, aside from that 2023 season, Chourio is. Multi-tool, clutch, offensive machine, unstoppable. Chourio has been the deciding factor in both games. Not in a way where I feel like he's carrying the team, in a way where everybody's showing up AND Chourio can still be the hero.

Bobby Gasser for Game 3? Shane Drohan? Gasser, Drohan and Harrison piled on top of each other? Considering the Padres are going with a bullpen game probably, the Brewers might still have the edge as they go to sweep. 

All the people who showed up for Randy Dobnak being an Uber-driver losing against the Yankees 7 years ago need to be showing up for Ray Kerr being a former 7-11 worker who's opened in long relief and shut down both the Phillies and Dodgers' offenses. Ray Kerr took some minor league stints to completely reframe his strategy, made some late appearances for the Braves and had a 1.47 ERA. And now he's their go-to opener for bullpen games and has allowed zero runs, three hits and struck out six. Last night he was going against Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker, and none of them got home with him on the mound. Similarly, Didier Fuentes went three innings without allowing a hit in late relief, and only gave up that dinger to Muncy when Weiss figured he was good for a fourth. Granted...until Muncy he was looking for the 12-out save, but, y'know, that shit is hard. 

It says so much that guys like Ray Kerr, Didier Fuentes Grant Holmes and Mauricio Dubon can triumph over Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, with the money they're making. The little guy can still win out, even if...yes, Michael Harris was the big hero for the Braves, and he's still making a great deal of money [he is Money Mike, after all], as he deserves to. Evening this series with a good starter on the mound for LA was a big leverage move for the Braves, as they go into a Game 3 with Yoshinobu Yamamoto [HOW WELL ARE YOU DOING IF YOSHI IS YOUR #3??]. Chris Sale will be on the mound. He's been unstoppable thus far. I hope he keeps it up.

Today we've got some AL games. Kinda pulling for Chicago but not as hard as I am for New York, for Milwaukee and against the Dodgers [sorry, I just want a more interesting outcome this year, and I see the irony of me saying that while still supporting the Yanks]. 

Division Series' Day 1: Taste the Ceiling

 

It's so cool that one year into the Munetaka Murakami experience he's hitting postseason home runs. That was not his intention. He specifically wanted to play for a lower-tier team, like in Japan, and be a crowd favorite. And then suddenly he immediately becomes a playoff fixture. And he just hit a home run off one of the best pitchers in the AL. One Hundred. 

The Sox are the true underdog team of this postseason, and there really aren't a ton of underdog teams in the running. Braves, Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, none of them are really underdogs. Brewers maybe? Cause they're a less expensive team? But they're still the best team in baseball. The White Sox squeaked in, have a ton of young talent, took down the Astros and are now leveling Cleveland with their best guys rested. They shut out the Guardians, needing only a few hits to do so, and now have an edge going into Monday, where it's probably Davis Martin or Sean Burke getting the ball. The complexity of the pitching staff is really impressing me, because Anthony Kay and Jordan Hicks can step in for a spot job and Grant Taylor can work a 4 inning save. There's no rules. 

I will say, Gavin Williams vs. this offense may result in a much tighter game, but I'm still down for whatever happens here.

[yawn]

Yeah, I know some cool things happened in this one, Tarik Skubal pitching a gem, Kyle Tucker finally coming alive, all that, but...this is so boring, guys. Dave Roberts said that he's already planning the pitching rotation with the NLCS in mind. Like, that is such a pompous statement. He already thinks he's winning this season. If the Braves had any mind, they'd make him regret that, but as we just saw, they needed three games to take out a Phillies team that couldn't hit, and wasted their best starters so that A.J. Smith Shawver could get shelled in long relief. Today it might be a similar strategy honestly, while the Dodgers have Blake Snell out there. 

Look, if the Braves weren't still hitting I'd be more worried. Albies had a late homer to rally a bit. The backup catcher had a homer. There is life in this team, and I think that if they somehow work a split to ensure Chris Sale can pitch, they could do some real damage. But this might be tough to do given how well planned out the Dodgers are right now. 

What a difference a couple of days makes, right?

The Yankees got all sorts of hits against the Red Sox, and their bullpen, and the Rays put out their best starter and mostly avoided the bullpen and we couldn't get shit done.  Drew Rasmussen looked incredible. 10 strikeouts, 8 innings, 1 hit, and said hit was immediately extinguished thanks to Austin Wells trying to leg out a triple with the heart of the order coming up. The Yanks pinch-hit Stanton in the 9th, they would have done it with Wells on second and brought in Volpe or somebody as a defensive sub. So much changes if Wells is content with a double, but alas...

My hope is that Rasmussen was the worst of this. He's gone deep with a no-no against the Yanks twice in the last two weeks. Famously we do a lot better against Nick Martinez, and Freddy Peralta, despite that September upswing, is not god anymore. Game 2 Monday night will have Cameron Schlittler on the gosh darned mound, and that'll make things very tough for a Rays team that only mustered one run, on a Jonathan Aranda solo shot, off of Cole and friends. 

I still have hope, but that was pretty damn bleak, gotta say.

Brewers-Padres might be the most competitive series of the four. The Brewers are the best of the best, but the Padres are hotter than hot right now. If this game was played in San Diego, that go-ahead homer by Ty France woulda counted, but because of that rinky-dink ass stadium in Milwaukee with a closed roof, that was merely an easy out. It sure makes the possibility of a Rays-Brewers World Series even more fun. Rob Manfred wants Yanks-Dodgers again, but how about two really low-market teams with old-ass stadiums fighting for dominance? Make him rip his hair out.

Anyway, this one was exactly what you wanted. Miz looking electric, striking out 6 but still allowing 2 runs. Chourio being the hero and tying the game with that huge homer. Phenomenal back-and-forth bullpen work. A thrilling conclusion where France almost sinks the game. So much really cool stuff. I'm definitely pulling for Milwaukee here, but the Padres could be a decent match for them.

Today we've got another Dodgers game, which Dave Roberts tells me they're planning to win 5-4 in order to set up a washed narrative before the sweep on Tuesday, and some more fun in Milwaukee. I'll try and sneak some in, in between watching football.