2026 in Getting Out of Tampa

 
The cycle continues. The Rays get something together, then realize they have to play their players, trade people away, and then once again the Rays get something together. Absolutely exhausting.

Right now the Rays have only 1 guy left from the 2020 A.L. Championship season, namely Yandy Diaz. Last season had 3, and two of them were actively either dealt or cut. Now it's down to one. Occasionally you hear talks of Junior Caminero getting a longterm extension, possibly Jonathan Aranda, but nothing permanent comes down. I'll give the Rays credit for signing more free agents than usual, as Steven Matz, Nick Martinez, Cedric Mullins and Jake Fraley wound up here in signings. But that's not distracting from the fact that any homegrown talent is there to attract trade promise and net them even more young, controllable players. This has been the MO since the Kevin Cash years, pure small ball without overextending. The few times they actually sign players, they gamble incorrectly, like with Wander Franco.

And then when people finally get out of Tampa, and get paid...then it's easier for them to have breakout seasons, or even just strong years in general. You're seeing that all around. Taj Bradley got dealt last year for Griffin Jax, and so far he's been one of the best players on a rough Twins roster, going 2-0 with 22 Ks in his first 3 starts. Every bit uncomfortable and unpolished Bradley felt in Tampa is gone, and he's more confident than ever in Minneapolis. Then you have Brandon Lowe, who had another great season last year, then got traded to the Pirates and has been extremely helpful for them this year, with 4 RBIs and 3 home runs in 11 games, in addition to some traditionally strong infield play. Lowe looked to be one of the Rays' last two veterans, and now he's playing for a team that actually seems to be going somewhere.

Sifting through each of the other rosters, it is very easy to find players the Rays gave up on to meet a budget quota. And while we're here...

Angels: Josh Lowe, a late offseason trade loss thanks to a strong desire for Gavin Lux. Lowe was a fairly regular producer for the Rays, and with the Angels he's been slower to start but still getting enough reps.

Astros: Isaac Paredes, one of the Rays' more baffling midseason trades, is the starting third baseman in Houston, and already has 4 doubles and 5 RBIs in a prime position in this lineup. 

A's: Jeffrey Springs, in case none of you are aware, nearly no-hit my team today. That happening now...just seems way too on the nose. The Rays got rid of him a year ago after they grew tired of waiting for him to come back to full power, and the A's actually gave him some money. Only a matter of time before his arm gives out again though. 

Brewers: Jake Bauers was last with the Rays back before any of these people whose departures have pissed me off were even with the team, really. He got sent to Cleveland in the deal that traded Yandy Diaz to Tampa. Since then his career has died and come back, and now he's a handy bench bat with Milwaukee. 

Cardinals: Matthew Liberatore was a longtime Rays organizational staple before he was dealt for Jose Martinez [and also another guy named Arozarena]. He finally made it to the bigs, and is the closest thing the team has to an ace right now. 

Dodgers: Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell, most notably.

Giants: One of the most egregious ones was Willy Adames, traded during a peak season solely to make room for Wander Franco. Then, when he was suspended and they were left with Taylor Walls and a clearl-not-ready-yet Junior Caminero, they had no one to blame but themselves.

Mariners: Lots, honestly. Randy Arozarena, Luke Raley, Cooper Criswell. Arozarena, like Paredes, was one of those 'you're just doing this to avoid paying him' deals, and while Arozarena has found more success in Seattle, he really should have become a Rays hero. 

Marlins: Xavier Edwards was another infield prospect that just couldn't find room, then got dealt and found playing time and his mojo. Pete Fairbanks was a truly unfair post-2025 cut, and had been doing well enough in a closing role for the Marlins before going on paternity leave. 

Nationals: Zack Littell had become a really nice starting piece for the Rays, and for his troubles he was dealt to the Reds. Now the Nats have him, and he's been serviceable. 

Orioles: Andrew Kittredge ended last year with the Cubs, yet still had a desire to return to the Orioles, because he seemed to enjoy it so much in the first half. That's not even mentioning folks like Shane Baz and Zach Eflin, two pieces of a near-powerful rotation that the Rays had no incentive to keep. 

Padres: You may recall that Jake Cronenworth was a Rays farmhand before his inclusion in the Hunter Renfroe deal. Dodged that bullet, I guess, or else, like Renfroe, he might be a journeyman by now.

Pirates: Jake Mangum and Mason Montgomery were also sent to Tampa in the Lowe deal. Both have found niche roles in Pittsburgh that aren't terribly different from their niche roles in Tampa.

Reds: Both Nathaniel Lowe and Emilio Pagan had crucial roles in competitive Rays teams. Neither have had tremendous starts to this season, but Pagan at least has 4 saves right now. 

Twins: Joe Ryan, like Bradley, was a Rays farmhand. Ryan was dealt for Nelson Cruz, found his way up in Minnesota and became a star.

Yankees: The Rays really could have kept Jose Caballero if they wanted to, but they traded the then-season saves leader to the Yankees, and since then Cabby's been a wise, trusty infield fill-in. 

I'm not sure if any lockout or bargaining agreement or salary cap or ANYTHING can change the way the Rays run their team. It's a very cheap way of doing business, and with no checks or balances against it from the MLB level, they're gonna keep doing it. I don't think they'll ever win a World Series this way, and I don't think the Rays Wall of Fame will be especially long if every plaque ends with 'after a strong four seasons he was dealt to a competitor, where he was paid more and won a World Series'. 

Coming Tomorrow- One of many pieces of proof in Anaheim that good things come to those who wait.

Could You Go About This Any Less Strangely?

 

Okay, we're two and a half weeks in and I'm already calling it, the Orioles are the strangest good team in the game. I dunno how to explain it. This team is working in some sort of mystical, black magic sort of way. Like, y'know how because the Saints play in New Orleans you can make the case sometimes that there'll be some voodoo ritual explaining why they're good? There's no baseball team in New Orleans, so you can't really do anything like that in the MLB, but...I get the strangest feeling with this O's team. This 'skeleton band of the dead' sort of breeze rushing through 'em. I don't know how else to explain it.

Because it's built in the way that a good team should be built. The Orioles finally have good money behind them. Pete Alonso's paid for, at least for a little while. Shane Baz and Samuel Basallo are sticking around indefinitely. I'd hazard a guess that Gunnar Henderson might be next for one of those. But...the guys being backed by contracts aren't the guys pushing the team. Alonso's done okay so far, only 1 homer and 3 RBIs. Basallo has 1 solo homer to his name, nothing else. Baz has been fine, solid if unspectacular. 

It feels like the people doing well for the Orioles right now are the people that everyone, including the team, counted out. And that goes for Adley Rutschman especially. Remember last year when everyone thought the O's were gonna trade him to Philly for Dante Nori or something, since Basallo's in for a while? Well...the funny thing about Samuel Basallo is he's not a viable catching option right now. So even after a down, injury-addled year, the Orioles needed Adley Rutschman. So him hitting like old Adley shouldn't be too shocking. He's batting .241, but he's got 4 RBIs and 7 hits, including 4 doubles. The production is to the degree that it was, as is his catching skills. This is a comeback season in the making, and with Henderson swatting 4 homers and counting and Taylor Ward surprisingly fitting right in with this team, he's instilled more confidence in this team's outlook.

But the strangeness is more in the odds and ends guys, the people I wasn't even thinking about. Like with Yennier Cano a few years ago, the Orioles have struck gold with an oft-cut relief option, namely Rico Garcia, a 32-year-old journeyman who's FINALLY locked in as a member of the O's, scoreless and hitless through 6 appearances. Ryan Helsley, after a disastrous 2025 in Queens, has bounced back big time, and already has 4 saves in 5 appearances. Brandon Young, who would either go deep into a no-no or get clobbered by 3 last year, was pretty fantastic in his first start of 2026. The staff ace, need I remind you, is Trevor Rogers, who everyone counted out after the injury. The requisite utility infielder is Blaze Alexander, who, at least before last game, was batting .300.

Even for a .500 team, the Orioles are getting boosts from the wildest places, and it makes me feel really good about their odds as a spoiler this year. The pressure of keeping 1st is mostly off, now they're trying to embarrass the big guns, and I think they can do that. Then when all the injured guys get back they'll be even more of a favorite.

Coming Tonight: I used to think the Twins were just desperate for pitching period, but maybe they really saw something in this kid. 

The Talent Runs Out

 

D'you think...like, when the Padres traded Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek for Freddy Fermin, someone in the front office, anyone, had the thought of 'wait, is our pitching depth gonna withstand this move?'. Because I'd like to think one of them would have foreseen an April like this one, with a skeleton crew of a rotation trying to prove the team's legitimacy, and maybe gone '...don't we have anyone else we could deal?'

Right now, the Padres' rotation, which used to sport a treasure trove of excellent starting options and was slammed with depth basically every year from 2021 onward, consists of Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Randy Vasquez, German Marquez and Walker Buehler. Maybe three years ago this could have sounded promising. But Marquez is trying to convince people he can still pitch, and he's got a 4.50 ERA and only 5 Ks in 2 starts. Walker Buehler's looking pretty cooked, he's given up 7 earned runs in 6.2 innings. He's basically only starting due to lack of other options. Joe Musgrove is hurt and while he should be back within a month, because he hasn't pitched in a year or so, nobody's quite sure what he's gonna be working with. At some point Griffin Canning will return, but same concern. And so now that we're seeing Michael King and Nick Pivetta being around average so far...the concern grows.

Wildly, the best piece of this rotation so far has been Randy Vasquez, who at least showed promise in a swing role last year. In his first two starts, Vasquez has allowed only 1 earned run, struck out 11 and has a 0.9 WAR. He's displaying the sort of dominance he's wanted to work up towards, and with the number of questionable starting options the Padres have right now, it's a needed security. But considering that this rotation has seen commanding performances from Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Dylan Cease and Musgrove, being down to just 'well Randy Vasquez is here' is a little concerning.

It's even more glaring when you realize that next to no one on this Padres team is currently hitting. Only one guy hitting over .240, and it's Miguel Andujar, who the Padres are wisely starting at DH this year. Everyone else is barely moving the ball, hitting around .220 or just struggling to get anything done. Tatis, Merrill, Machado, Cronenworth and Sheets haven't done much. Xander Bogaerts has done the most contact work but he hasn't exactly gotten people home. A lot of guys on this team are defensive liabilities. And even adding Nick Castellanos didn't seem to work for some reason. You've got a team of overpaid guys not hitting, you bring in Nick Castellanos, what did you expect him to do? Hit?? 

It is, of course, early, and the team could lock into place, but virtually none of their competitors, save for one, have accomplished much this season at all. When the Diamondbacks are looking like the comparative sleeper hit, that's damning. The Padres still have time to erase this deficit, but it's gonna take more than just one series. The tide needs to shift, and this may not be the roster for that to make all the difference.

Coming Tomorrow- Towards the end of last season, a lot of people assumed he'd be traded or dealt with in some other way, and lo and behold he's still as valuable as everyone thought he was, Basallo be damned.

Who to Gain, Who to Retain

 

2026 is yet another chapter in the many multi-faceted tactics of the Steve Cohen administration. He packed a roster one way, it didn't make the playoffs, he let it grow out, it made the playoffs, he added to it with Juan Soto, it didn't make the playoffs, he threw in the kitchen sink. And so we're now at the level of roster bloat that, by baseball standards SHOULD lead to a playoff team, but by Steve Cohen standards hasn't quite. The question is 'if you put Luis Robert, Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver on the same team, one that already has Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto on it, can they all play well at the same time?' So far the answer is 'possibly yes'.

The 6-4 start the Mets have gotten off to is earned, and was definitely buttressed by a sharp series win against the San Francisco Giants, but...those losses against the Pirates and Cardinals stand out a little. Robert, Semien and Williams have taken to Queens handsomely, but Bichette is struggling on several levels, Polanco isn't hitting, and batters are finding the flaws in Freddy Peralta somehow. The big veteran Met performers have not been the ones you'd expect, with Clay Holmes getting off to the best start of everybody in the rotation, and Mark Vientos hitting .476 with 10 hits in 7 games. Vientos was looking to seal up the 3rd base spot, then 2025 happened and he was better off a backup, and now Swaggy V seems to be back in full force. I was in a thrift store in the tri-state area and they had a Swaggy V official Mets giveaway bobblehead priced at 15 bucks. I assume someone's snagged it by now, the way he's playing. Then again, when I found my Hunter Pence Phils bobble at a card show it was I think 7 bucks, so...maybe the price is keeping it there.

Ultimately, the Mets are proving that building a team means adding new people and stacking the deck with proven options. Marcus Semien is on this team because he allegedly wasn't gelling well with the Rangers, and you can tell Semien's in a better mood because, for the first time in like 5 years, he's actually hitting well in April. .257 average, 6 RBIs in 10 games, it's definitely better. Even at 35, Semien works as a solid mid-lineup bat with power perks. Like Polanco, he was a gamble, and he seems to be paying off.

But the other side of that coin is that to make room for all these new people, the Mets had to deal away a lot of working MLB options. Brandon Nimmo went to Texas in the Semien deal, and I think the Mets might be regretting that, seeing as he's hitting .359 with 14 hits and 4 RBIs in 10 games, and Carson Benge, in his stead...isn't. I think 'scorned at the way they left town' is sort of the theme of this Rangers team, cause they've got Andrew McCutchen, still mad at the Pirates, and he's hitting well. And I guess Jacob deGrom falls into this category as well, because the Mets didn't want him back and then signed the entire league. deGoat is looking alright so far this season, not fully exacerbating anything yet, but he has, at least been pretty dominant.

That's gotta be a tough one, when the Mets have to play the Rangers. DeGrom the ace, Nimmo leading the pack. Kumar Rocker, who they did not sign, also in the mix. Not like the O's series will be much easier, with Alonso and Helsley after their revenge. 

That's gonna be one of the themes of this season for sure, will the ex-Mets outdo the actual Mets. Last night Amed Rosario had a huge clutch homer for the Yankees, we're still hearing about Dominic Smith's steady work as DH in Atlanta, Alonso's plugged into that Orioles lineup, Seth Lugo's still a crucial part of the Royals rotation...the list goes on. The Rangers, even with their flaws, could be a team that eases into the race this year, and they've got a bit less pressure on them than the Mets. So it's an intriguing narrative, and we'll see if the Mets can do any better than last year, especially in the later months.

Coming Tonight: I know it's fun to talk about ex-Mets, but an ex-Yankee on a team loaded with them is off to a terrific start.

The Extra Perk of Extending Your Enemies

 

I think about the ending of John Carpenter's In The Mouth of Madness, where Sam Neill, who's spent the whole film in prison, basically wanders out the front door after a breakout. The whole film, we're led to believe he'll face consequences for something that wasn't his fault, and then the chaos of the film decides he won't after all, and he just sort of finds his way. That is how anyone who gets an extension this year that isn't a rookie should feel.

Nico Hoerner getting an extension is just a wild perk on the whole thing, because the guys getting locked down are the younger, more pressing guys like Konnor Griffin and Colt Emerson, or even the second or third year guys pieces like Tyler Soderstrom and Roman Anthony. And then suddenly you get Nico Hoerner signed for the next 7 or so years, solely because the Cubs have finally realized that they have one of the best all-around second basemen in the game and they don't want anyone else to have him. They were trying to move him, eventually decided not to, and...that's the right move. I think they also knew that the salary cap discussions are gonna make it difficult to do as many extensions in a year or so, and they wanted to get this in before they're limited. 

Thankfully, the Cubs are looking at yet another peak year for Hoerner, who they've already, smartly, built the team around. Right now he's hitting .273 with 5 RBIs and 5 doubles, plus a 0.8 WAR. Since his age-25 season in 2022, Hoerner has locked in and become that multi-tool, Sandberg-esque infielder for the Cubs, with exceptional defensive numbers, terrific contact hitting and crucial lineup presence. I remember they brought him up painfully early in 2019 to mend an injury-addled infield, and he honestly didn't do too badly for himself, but struggled for the next few years as the team shed a number of its Maddon-era strengths. Hoerner's a very classic-feeling presence, a career .280 hitter who doesn't strike out much at all, averages 170 hits a year, and owns his position. Him not making an all-star team to this point is, quite frankly, a travesty, but considering that Ozzie Albies, Ketel Marte and Luis Arraez also play in this division I sort of get it. Hopefully this is the year.

The Cubs, by the way, have struggled to find their footing thus far, despite a better team. The main issue has been the starting pitching, as Matt Boyd and Cade Horton are both injured, Steele is already missing time, Imanaga and Taillon have struggled, and Ben Brown still seems to be not quite ready for prime time. At the very least Edward Cabrera has been very sharp, but that was the guy they got for insurance. The bullpen hasn't been much better, with really only Daniel Palencia holding things down. The heart of the lineup still hasn't fully showed up, with Bregman, PCA, Busch and Swanson still looking for consistent success. It's clear the Brewers want this division this year, and the Cubs need to find a way to oppose them, even if this start was not what they wanted. 

Clearly there's a way through this, and enough constant performers like Hoerner will make it a lot easier to stomach. The injured guys will be back eventually [most of them anyway], and then hopefully this period will be long forgotten.

Coming Tomorrow- The Mets traded him for a similar veteran presence. Right now it's looking like neither team should have traded these guys. 

Don't Sleep on the Royals

 

Most other teams would be discouraged by the fact that their 9 hitter was doing the most damage two weeks in. I think the Royals are just relieved that Kyle Isbel remembered how to hit in the first place.

Cause the idea that I got was that Isbel was a defense-first outfielder who stayed in the lineup in spite of his lack of hitting success. Always a low-ish WAR, not a ton of true offensive production, maybe an RBI here and there, but mostly just nice catches. Right now Isbel is hitting .478 with 5 RBIs and 2 homers, plus 11 hits overall in 7 games. He got to 11 hits in 13 less plate appearances than Maikel Garcia. Logic dictates this is a early surge that could disappear in time for Bobby Witt, Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino getting hot, but...it shows you that even the 9 guy can go nuts for this team. 

This is why you can never really count out the Royals under this current administration [I mean Quatraro, I'm not making a broader statement about anything else]. They've got crazy depth and a wide range of options. Kyle Isbel can swing in and go crazy on contact. Maikel Garcia can be the hero, as he has been frequently lately. Salvy Perez can still swing a bat, AND he can hold his own against the umps. The plan seems to be to platoon Lane Thomas and Isaac Collins til either one shows long term readiness, which I think works considering they've both shown a partial spark at least. They also have Starling Marte hanging about, and he can occasionally pitch in, when not being roped into a lineup when the usual DH option is oversleeping. 

The place where I see the depth running out might actually be the bullpen. Carlos Estevez is out, and Lucas Erceg is taking the closing assignments. It could be going a lot better. Only Nick Mears is showing any degree of dominance of this unit. Everybody else has been very human, and very ineffective. Even Matt Strahm, who I bet is missing Philly about now, is trying to get his ERA back below 4. The starting guys have been okay for the most part, despite the high home run totals [Michael Wacha just gave up one for Steven Kwan]. And I do think, if Bubic and Ragans and Lugo can stay healthy this year, they're playoff-caliber. But I just don't know if the pitching has the same level of depth as the hitting. They brought up Luinder Avila the other day to face the Brewers, and he got kinda chewed up by 'em. Ryan Bergert is waiting if need be, but there's not a lot of surefire guys lined up next, at least not yet.

Still, the Royals look decent, and if Witt really takes off this year they could go on a tear. I can already see some real strengths. We'll just see how far they can take these guys.

Coming Tomorrow- After years of trade rumors, the Cubs finally gave this guy the extension he deserves. Now the real work begins. 

Nothing Was The Same

 

To be perfectly honest, the Braves' first two weeks would have been a success if they'd gotten through without their top 4 bursting into flames, but starting 6-4 given everyone that's already been injured is a very good sign. They're without Schwellenbach, Strider and Waldrep, and Sean Murphy and Ha-Seong Kim, for a bit, and they have to proceed with a less confident rotation and a slightly compromised defensive schematic. It's a good thing they're the Atlanta Braves, though.

First of all, I owe Drake Baldwin an apology. Last year I was not convinced he would be in any way a non-negotiable factor for the league, as his rookie campaign was merely above-average to me rather than game-changing. I thought it was nonsensical for the Braves to go ahead with a new catcher considering that they already had Sean Murphy, and I simply thought Cade Horton was a more impactful addition to a roster. However, Cade Horton's missing time with some arm issues and Drake Baldwin is one of the most explosive hitters in the game right now. So at the moment it's looking like I was misinformed. Baldwin is currently hitting .300 with 4 homers and 12 RBIs, both league leading, and is far and away leading the Braves right now, in the stead of both Ronald Acuna and Austin Riley, who haven't really started hitting yet. Even factoring in some of the usual suspects, like Matt Olson, and Michael Harris, Baldwin's accomplished the most for this offense so far.

But the organization's emphasis on stocking the deck has made for some excellent replacement-level decisions that are already benefitting the team. Mauricio Dubon was dealt by the Astros for reasons that are still somewhat hazy, but Kim's injury means he gets to start at shortstop everyday, and he's done an excellent job of that, while continuing his contact excellence from Houston. Dominic Smith was brought in as a potential bench option but has fielded the majority of DH starts, and has 2 home runs and a walk-off under his belt. Even Jorge Mateo is coming to life as a bench bat. This team is well-built enough to withstand lapses, which very much counters the excuse from 2025.

Now, the pitching is still sort of problematic, because without those young arms the back end of the rotation are guys like Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes and Martin Perez. But even they're not too bad. Elder's yet to allow an earned run this year, and has kept balls mostly in play. Perhaps his issues of the last two years are finally behind him? Holmes is also still pretty good, albeit not especially flashy. I think the goal is to eventually work Didier Fuentes up to starting, and he was decent in a long relief outing but evidently not ready yet. They at least have Chris Sale and Reynaldo Perez in excellent shape. Very much supports the theory that after pitching a full season of grade A work, most starters should likely take the following season off. 

The 'pen looks good, the depth is there, the production is there. There's a few guys in the lineup who aren't all the way back yet, but it's early. As it stands right now, the Braves are looking better than they have in a couple years, and may be a factor in the NL East again. Let's just see if they can keep it going.

Coming Tonight: When your #9 hitter is doing the brunt of the work, something needs to be reassessed.