Empty Threats

 

The Padres, like last year, are firmly in second place, a few games behind the Dodgers, in attempt to intimidate them for the division. Unlike last year, I have no idea how the heck they can be intimidating when they lineup's barely showing up as it is.

I mean, look. Since 2024 we've been building around a core of Machado, Tatis, Merrill, Bogaerts. Okay. Manny Machado has 9 home runs and 28 RBIs, but he's hitting .171 and has a -0.4 WAR, some of the most pitifully one-dimensional numbers of his entire career. You can see he's trying but he's just not having a good time up there. Fernando Tatis, despite hitting .268 with a team-leading 55 hits...cannot hit home runs anymore. It's not happening. Whatever took him down a year or so ago, whatever injury, that took his power ability away. We're two months into the season and we're JUST NOW getting to his first homer of the season. He launched one last night. Need I remind you, this man hit FORTY-TWO before, and he started a lot earlier than May 30th. I know his father put up a high bar for squandering sky-high potential, but you can't seriously be chasing that. Jackson Merrill, meanwhile, is only hitting .201 with 5 home runs and 21 RBIs, possibly with the opposite problem as Machado where he's still technically pre-peak. Xander Bogaerts is at least producing runs, he's got 5 homers and 25 RBIs, but that's the best of the four.

And so it's been up to people like Gavin Sheets, Miguel Andujar, Ramon Laureano and Ty France to do most of the work, and it really shouldn't. They're the supplemental guys, they help you out. Sheets leads the team in OPS with .834, and he's got 9 dingers of his own, and...it's very nice, but he should be among a bunch of people driving in the runs. It shouldn't be him leading the charge. Laureano's ONCE AGAIN doing more work than he should for a cheap contract, just not as prominently as in Baltimore. France is hitting .287, has 6 homers and 17 RBIs, and is finding success he never was able to in San Diego. Seeing him in the same infield as Machado is wild. Even wilder that France is playing better.

The runs are getting produced, but the core isn't really responsible. Thankfully, with a pitching staff this good it doesn't really matter. King, Vazquez and Giolito are holding things down for 6 innings, then you go to honestly any bullpen guy and you're good. This year Bradgley Rodriguez is the big standout, but Jeremiah Estrada, Wandy Peralta, Jason Adam, Yuki Matsui and, well, Mason Miller, are all having excellent seasons. So really, the dysfunction in the lineup isn't as much of an issue as it could be because the rest of the team's doing what it should be doing. It ain't pretty, but it's working.

In order to FINALLY catch the Dodgers, they're gonna need the stars to step up and flip the script on their seasons. Cause if not, there's really no point. We've proven that Tatis can hit homers again. He needs to prove that the recovery period is over, and that he's gonna keep hitting them at a gradually accelerating rate. Y'know, like a ballplayer might.

Coming Tonight: 8 years after divebombing his career after a trade to a competitor, one of the most consistent pitchers of the 2020s continues his excellent run in Toronto.

Don't Let the Mets Get You Down

 

So, story time. Back when boxes of cards were actually affordable I used to do these box breaks for the blog, and a lot of them were older, cheaper products but one time I went for a box of 2019 Topps Heritage Minors. Why not, right? It was a pretty cool rip, I pulled a Jo Adell game-used jersey card whose value has fluctuated like a gosh darned barometer, and I pulled an on-cast autograph of a Brooklyn Cyclones outfielder named Carlos Cortes. 

Now I don't really break these for the hits, I honestly do it for the XRC possibility. So a Julio XRC, a Robert XRC, an Oneil Cruz XRC, all this was the pull. The hits didn't need to be big, though the Adell didn't hurt. But getting a Mets prospect I hadn't heard of was...at least better than getting a Marlins prospect I hadn't heard of, which is my usual auto luck. Cortes could go either way. I kept the card, despite the occasional inclination of trading it.

I still have it. I reckon the value's gone up a hair this year.

Carlos Cortes has gone from a struggling power bat stuck in the Mets' farm system to a lead off schtarker with insane contact ability for the 2nd place Athletics. Cortes is now starting in right field, and hitting .333 with a .945 OPS. This was charming bench bat stuff last year, and now we're talking some lethal material, even for a 29-year-old who, for all intents and purposes, is still a rookie as far as Topps is concerned [of course, they also think anyone who debuts south of May 20th is a 'call-up' they can't profit off of til 2027, so what do they know?]. In a May that's featured injuries to Jacob Wilson and Max Muncy, Cortes has been steady, scary and more accurate than any other A's hitter, even Nick Kurtz.

It's incredible that a guy like this can become a heavy-hitter after all this time wasting away, but this is honestly the norm now. Even with the amount of pitchers most teams use now, there's still a longer wait for many prospects to actually make the bigs, hence the amount of 29-year-old breakouts we've seen in the last year or so, including Nathan Lukes, Curtis Mead, Foster Griffin, Tristan Gray and, yes, now Cortes. You can even root this back to Joey Meneses, who became an overnight sensation with Washington at thirty. As cool as these breakouts are, the career longevity is not there because the minors has ate up 5 prime years or so, so now they're breaking out, and 30 is around the corner and...well, there's gonna be a downturn. It's why Jeff McNeil and Whit Merrifield breaking out at 27 spelled doom for their long term value, though to be fair McNeil's still doing a fine job in Sacramento at 34. 

It's also a contrast from the youth-oriented core the team has developed, though not from the noticeably older rotation that's, to be clear, working. Springs, Ginn and Civale are working on nice seasons, and while it's not the approach I expected, they're getting the job done. With Sevvy and Civale getting hurt, you are seeing a desire to bring the young guys out, and uh...hopefully Gage Jump evens out over time, because they cannot keep doing the 'GET READY FOR THE BIG A'S PITCHING PROSPECT' schtick only for them to give up 7 runs and immediately need surgery. Joe Boyle, Gunnar Hoglund, Luis Morales...shit's getting old.

The A's are still in a decent position, have no issue scoring runs and are still in the thick of the divisional race. This Yankees series has the potential to slow them down a little but they're ahead of where they usually are around this point.

Coming Tomorrow- He got out of Chicago at the right time, but is it the wrong time to be in San Diego?

Chicago Cope

 

The Blackhawks and Bulls didn't make the playoffs, the Bears don't play for a bit. For now, Chicago sports fans get to decide who gets to disappoint them in the interim. One of these Chicago teams has a high payroll, an expertly-plucked manager, a key new addition this year and some of the most impressive winning streaks of the season. The other is the Chicago White Sox. They both essentially have the same record right now. 

And I think the White Sox might honestly have the edge right now? Because the Cubs will do this thing where they win 10 games in a row and are really excited and then they lose 10 games in a row and...like, what was the point of any of that. The White Sox are as inconsistent and up-and-down as any middle of the road team, and they're not really pretending they're anything they're not. They've had a lucky stretch as of late, they're in 2nd in the AL Central, ahead of the Tigers and Royals who've both had terrible months. 

This season, the White Sox actually have some palpable star performances, rather than 'people who are doing slightly better than average'. Munetaka Murakami has 20 home runs, 41 RBIs, and...79 strikeouts but that's less important. Davis Martin is a genuine pitching gem right now, he's 8-1 with a 2 ERA. It takes a lot to have 8 wins through 2 months on a middle of the road team like the White Sox, but Martin's got enough in the tank to make it work. Even Miguel Vargas, who I've written off like three different times now, has an .831 OPS, 12 homers and 31 RBIs. It's a very nice run for the corner infielder who seems to have finally hit his stride in Chicago. And then Colson Montgomery, Chase Meidroth, Tristan Peters, Sam Antonacci and Randal Grichuk are all filing in behind them with terrific seasons and great offensive skill. I knew a lot of these answers would click eventually but this is a very sure, very accurate version of this team. 

And on top of all that they keep bringing up surefire hits. They just threw Rikuu Nishida, a Japanese-born, U.S. based outfielder, into the mix and he's already a defensive favorite. And they just brought up David Sandlin, dealt by Boston for a bag of chips so that's ANOTHER White Sox star you can thank the Red Sox for, he went 6 innings and all he gave up was a solo homer for his debut. They're figuring more stuff out, and getting more and more confident.

Whereas the Cubs...have basically all the pieces for a competitive, division-clinching team...yet can't stay lucky with them.

I dunno if PCA cursing out the Sox fan was the turning point but it can't have helped. It's not that Pete Crow Armstrong's having a bad season per se, as he's an asset in the outfield and on the base paths, but that .677 OPS for a star player just illuminates how people are turning on the guy. This villain arc has allowed people to go 'maybe he's just not that good'. Cause at least when Alex Bregman gets in an argument with a fan on twitter, he remembers to hit .300 and knock 30 long balls or something. But PCA, as valuable as he is in terms of WAR, is a .224 hitter who leads the team in strikeouts, and it's wild that because of his multi-tool prowess that's not a dealbreaker anymore. He's not Taylor Walls bad, but he's verging on it.

The rotation's caved in a bit without Cade Horton, Edward Cabrera and Matt Boyd, plus Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon have had some rough stretches of late. And then you call on Jordan Wicks for the first time in a year, he gets lit up. This looked like a great rotation in March, and it's not coming together. For all that this team is hitting, and they very much are, the injury troubles with the pitching staff have deadened the attack, and have neutralized them at a moment where the Brewers, and to a lesser extent the Cardinals, aren't as put off. 

In the Cubs' defense, they have been finishing off the Pirates quite a bit lately, and seem to be working their way back up. They're giving Ben Brown more of a workload, including some starts, and they're coasting on an incredible run from Ian Happ. They'll likely be fine in the long run. But this month, especially the crosstown series, pointed out how much trouble they could be in this year. They've been getting caught sleeping late the past few years, and this year they need to ensure a different outcome. 

Coming Tonight: The Mets got tired of waiting. The A's jumped at the ideal timing. Be like the A's.

Sale On

 

Since joining the NL for the first time in 2024, Chris Sale has yet to finish a season with an ERA higher than 2.60. His Cy Young season in '24 had a 2.38 ERA. Through 11 2026 games, he has a 2.01 ERA. All of this on what the Red Sox assumed was borrowed time.

Not that it's been enjoyable as of late, but if you wanted to check how the returns for Sale are doing in Boston right now, well...Vaughn Grissom's not even in Boston. He's currently a utility guy in Anaheim. Meaning once again, the Red Sox traded a big piece for prospects that couldn't even stick around long enough to help them do anything. No wonder the fans want John Henry to sell. 

Though we all thought the Jack McDowell comparisons would do him in, Chris Sale has become one of the most reliable pitchers of the 'K-or-nothing' era of baseball. This year, Sale's on track to reach 2700 career strikeouts, and his career ERA still sits below 3. He's also on pace to crack 60 career WAR, and he recently notched his 150th career win. Obviously nobody can do what Nolan Ryan did and overthrow for 25 years anymore, but Sale has maintained so much success just by consistently whizzing past people. So far he has 80 Ks this year, and on a Braves team where the next-nearest strikeout artist is trying to stay healthy and the other two everyday guys are leverage/control guys who don't throw hard, it's positively refreshing. The 2025 Braves went in banking on the high-speed guy like Sale, and then Schwellenbach and Lopez got hurt, Sale missed a third of the season and it was up to Holmes and Elder to keep the lights on. Now that the approach has been altered and it's less geared around the overthrowing, Sale can just do what he does and there's plenty of fallbacks.

The failsafes are one of the reasons the Braves are still a league superpower. Last year they got cut with their pants down because they were unprepared for the majority of the pitching staff getting hurt. Now they have swing options. J.R. Ritchie gave it a go, and while it didn't work, he was able to swing out when Strider came back. Martin Perez went from an in-camp maybe to one of the most unexpected rotation weapons in Atlanta, with a 2.70 ERA and 40 Ks in 11 games, proving he truly is the Venezuelan counterpart to Charlie Morton. Mauricio Dubon was the replacement for Ha-Seong Kim at short, and Dubon's been so good even after Kim's return that the position continues to be his. The one thing they couldn't really predict was losing both Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy, meaning Chadwick Tromp is now the starting catching option for the Braves, and Sandy Leon is closing in on him. If this wasn't a really good Braves team with so many other great starring performances, it'd be worrying. But Baldwin'll be back soon, and it's not breaking the team.

There's so much depth to this team, and so many successful seasons, that another star performance from Chris Sale just feels like the cherry on top. I hope they keep at it, as they really could chase the Dodgers for the league championship this year.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who was traded for Tommy Edman, who's honestly doing a much better job than he would have, and is still looking to win the trade with his new, rebuilding team.

Stat Inflation Ruined My Streak

 

Do you have any idea how much guff I've had to hear from people about how the Yankees technically aren't a good team because they only win series' against sub-.500 teams?? It's been everywhere. You know, despite the fact that multiple pieces are thriving, we have the best pitcher in the AL and we have peak Gerrit Cole back again, nah, doesn't mean anything if we can't take one more from the Jays. Y'know, if it hadn't rained last week we'd have finished the series with the Rays while we were getting hot and killed the narrative. But now it's gotta persist. Exhausting.

Because, honestly, this team doesn't suck. The bullpen can be infuriating, and David Bednar's blown some saves, but we're in most of these games. We're just unlucky right now given the opportunity. 

Ultimately, the core of this lineup is enough to keep me confident. Judge has been cold the last few weeks but he still has 17 homers and 34 RBIs, plus that insane walk-off last week. What's wild is that Cody Bellinger's outhitting him. Not that it's a huge shock, Bellinger's awesome and we know what he can do, but I didn't think he'd outdo Judge at the plate. Right now Bellinger's got a .271 average and 36 RBIs, plus 8 homers and 13 doubles. We knew last year how nice of a fit Belli was, and he's continuing his excellent progress by taking more initiative and being THE guy in more games. The Mark Teixeira comparisons are kinda there, the big contract to supplant the preexisting core, but Bellinger's looking to have a bit more career legs than Tex. And considering that one of these guys is looking forward to election day and the other is looking forward to 420...they couldn't be more different honestly.

This team has also seen the return of Anthony Volpe, hitting .257 with 7 RBIs in 11 games. He seems a bit more accurate than when we last left him, and though platooning him with Caballero is a safe bet, a long-awaited breakout would also be pretty helpful. Benchwise, this team has Amed Rosario and Paul Goldschmidt both being extremely useful, and now we have Max Schuemann being a surprising source of contact prowess. Shame Spencer Jones didn't work out this year though.

And at the same time, Cam Schlittler is still elite, Ryan Weathers and Will Warren can still stay in late and keep runs down, and Gerrit Cole has no earned runs and 12 Ks in his first 2 games back. It's safe to say this guy is back, and he's definitely his old self. I think it worked out that Cole and Rodon switched right in when Fried and Gil got hurt. We have Elmer Rodriguez and Carlos Lagrange down there in case anything else happens. Then again, Elmer is beginning to look a lot like July trade bait. I made the mistake of getting attached to Jhony Brito, I'm hesitant now.

I still think the Yanks are in good shape, and I especially think so after this Royals series. The A's are next, and we've routinely had some trouble with them, but hopefully we can continue our recent dominance and flip the narrative. 

Coming Tonight: I feared his career was over just 2 years ago. In reality, he was getting ready for one hell of a second act. 

Overdrive

 

Shohei Ohtani, for the first time since...I wanna say 2020 or so, is putting up positively human numbers at the plate. Human for Ohtani is still nebulous for most other ballplayers, but there is a palpable downward step from 2025, he's hitting .269 with 9 homers and 30 RBIs. Very normal, very unassuming, not a heck of a lot setting up apart from his contemporaries at the plate. Still a needed hitter with great power instincts, but it's not the pace that got him over 50 long balls the last few years.

Which means it's a good thing he's having his best season to date as a pitcher. 

The last time Ohtani felt this untouchable on the mound, it was 2022, and he went 15-9 with a 2.23 ERA and 219 Ks, enough to get him second in the MVP voting [but because he didn't hit 62 homers he couldn't lap the favorite]. Now he seems even better. In 9 starts he has a 5-2 record with a 0.82 ERA and 61 Ks. Pure dominance on so many levels, without overexerting himself. In fact, last night Ohtani went 6 innings without allowing a hit, only allowing a run on some sacrifice plays. That someone that dangerous as a hitter can also pitch scoreless frames and master the other side of the game, arguably more than the hitting right now, is insanely impressive.

On the heels of that is the fact that the Dodgers' bullpen has been exceptional this month, with little to no run bleeding from stalwarts like Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia, Kyle Hurt and Edgardo Henriquez. Despite the amount they paid for another lost Edwin Diaz season, they've built a working model that completely outdoes their 2025 model of hoping the extra starters can do long relief. It eviscerates one of the real marks against them from last year, and it gives them yet another leg up on the competition.

Shohei Ohtani is also just the best starter in this rotation right now, and that's taking into consideration Justin Wrobleski's swell, Yamamoto's usual brilliance and the surprise smash that is Eric Lauer. I am beginning to get worried that the potential for yet another Philadelphia Cy Young win will be foiled by a candidate who regularly wins things. I'm miffed about Zack Wheeler losing all those times, and I still think Cristopher Sanchez deserved another look last year. Now Sanchie's on an unprecedented run and I'm not even sure if that'll be enough to stop the writers from giving awards to Ohtani. Not that he doesn't deserve it, it's just...hasn't he gotten enough stuff by now?

The Dodgers still look like a league giant, have Andy Pages and Freddie Freeman surging, and have no trouble keeping the Padres down, in many cases getting other teams to do the dirty work for them. Even with the usual pitching injuries, and a few crucial lineup injuries [Betts and Teoscar], this team isn't slowing down, and still has lots of strength on display. It's a wee bit boring, but even I can appreciate it.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically a former Dodgers lineup standout, now in a crucial role in opposition to LA's dynasty.

Patience Occasionally Pays Off

 

The Mariners promoted Colt Emerson a few weeks ago, and Emerson's been taking the majority of reps at third in the wake of yet another Brendan Donovan injury. You can tell the Mariners have faith in Emerson because they traded their other infield prospect, Ben Williamson, to make room for him, and so far that seems to be a good move on their part. Emerson's currently hitting .222 with 6 hits and 4 RBIs in 9 games. It's not immediately showing Emerson's high ceiling numbers, but if the Mariners' gameplan over the last few years has taught us anything, it's that they can afford to wait a little while.

Look at Cole Young, who was honestly inessential in his midyear callup last year. They brought him in to be a better choice at 2nd, he...sort of was, but didn't hit. Now, with another few months under his belt in the majors, he's figured a ton more out, with a more pronounced contact game, complete with 10 doubles and 23 RBIs, and some excellent defense at 2nd. He's been one of the most confident pieces of the lineup thus far, and in a season without Cal Raleigh's better numbers, that's worth a ton. Young wasn't an immediate smash in Seattle, but the Mariners didn't give up on him. Same with Emerson Hancock, who regularly brought up the rear of the five man rotation; Hancock's now a surer, more consistent starter, with a 2.78 ERA and 63 Ks in 11 games. He might honestly have the best line of any of the five right now, which is kinda insane. 

The waiting approach also applies to some of their acquisitions. J.P. Crawford, Dominic Canzone and Victor Robles hadn't completely hit their potential yet when they were traded, yet they've all found pivotal roles in this lineup. Crawford's still a welcome contact hitter, and though he's a little less accurate than usual he's still got 7 home runs. Canzone is the fun bench/DH bat whose power boosts have been welcome this year. Robles is still a great help defensively in the outfield, and he can hit .300 to boot. I'd even through Luke Raley in this category, because the Rays didn't get a ton of use out of him but in Seattle he's become one of the most reliable sources of power. Dude's got 11 home runs so far. 

The inverse of this is the guys the Mariners lose their patience with typically don't have a ton left afterwards. Kyle Lewis's peak WAS in Seattle, and after that season he barely touched the majors. Jarred Kelenic just got DFA'd by Chicago, proving the Mariners were right to give up on him. Easton McGee also hasn't really recovered from the injury he suffered right after his Mariners debut. They just seem to know when to pull the trigger and when to hold off.

Thanks to a strong series against the A's, the Mariners are momentarily back in first and hoping to build on the narrow lead. They've got Julio hitting, the rotation's looking surer than before and the wins are coming more frequently than they were in April. I think they can hold this for a little while, but the amount of time it took them to get here is slightly concerning. 

Coming Tonight: I was reminded the other day that this guy's been in the majors for nine years now. It's no less wild than it was in 2018.