Elias Actually Did Something

 

It feels so obvious but for a team that just doesn't take on new contracts or players very often, it seems like the revelation of the century. If you bring in a bunch of players that can help the team...they will help the team win. It may not look like much from 4th, but I am telling you that this team is way better than it was without Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Leody Taveras, Blaze Alexander or Shane Baz. Last year, all Mike Elias added to the Orioles were three contracts that were unloaded by July [Morton, Kittredge and Laureano] and Tyler O'Neill, who's kinda sucked here. Now we actually have talented people in their prime delivering in Baltimore. What a difference that makes.

So, let's talk about Taylor Ward. He was traded for Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez is once again hurt and trying to pitch through it. It's not going well. Ward, meanwhile, is doing exactly what he did in Anaheim. He's leading the O's in doubles with 18, he's hitting .257 and has 5 homers and 22 RBIs, and he's still excellent out in left. That kind of bat, even behind Rutschman, Henderson, Basallo and Cowser, is still pretty valuable and varies the brunt of the offense. I dunno if we're gonna get to where we were in 2016, wall-to-wall unbeatable no matter how far down you get, but this is already looking good, even with Alexander, Taveras and Jackson bringing up the rear.

And then there's Pete Alonso, who's overcome a slow start to continue his run as one of the most consistent power hitters in the game. He's got an .815 OPS, a .474 SLG, 55 RBIs and, yes, 18 homers, on the way to what could be another 30+ homer year [which would be #7 if it happens, in...yeah, 8 seasons]. He's got a decent chance of making 300 homers this year if he doubles his current total, and there's still room for him to continue this standard of power hitting as a Baltimore Oriole. Early on they wanted to really push this narrative of 'well is this contract gonna be a mistake for Baltimore', and...no, not really. He's still Pete Alonso. Doesn't miss a game, gives his all, hits for power like no one else even on a down year. Chris Davis isn't this guy.

The O's could use some better stuff from their established talent though. Trevor Rogers seems to be on again, and he needs to stay on. Kyle Bradish and Brandon Young have been pretty much but the full rotation still isn't all the way terrific yet, and part of that is just how okay Shane Baz has been [he's 4-8]. Zach Elfin, Cade Povich and Des Kremer have been little-to-no help due to injuries, and usual bullpen mainstays Keegan Akin and Andrew Kittredge have been struggling mightily. The preexisting core needs to supplant the new guys, so that it all might be worth it. And the Orioles have had some very nice stretches, but it's all too inconsistent this year, which is too bad.

There's still time to turn things around, and there's still enough elements working that you can't completely count them out. I'm just thankful the new moves paid off. Let that be a lesson to you, Mike. You can too build a worthy team.

Coming Tonight: The Marlins are somehow still over .500 and have one of the best home records in baseball, and this guy has certainly helped this month. 

Eldridge Horror

 

It's no secret that the Giants probably aren't a competitor this year. The tentpoles can't lift them, the back half of the rotation and the bullpen are weaker than they should be, Drew Gilbert still hasn't taken off and the top 3 NL West teams are just better. But they're not gonna go quietly. I still think the Giants are one of the most interesting bad teams in the league. It took them this long to figure out how to hit, and now that they're doing so, it's paying off wildly. 

For instance...Bryce Eldridge. 21 years old, first full year in the bigs. In 38 games, his .874 OPS is the highest on the team, higher than Casey Schmitt or Jung Hoo Lee. The guy has 6 homers and 16 RBIs, and he seems to be just getting started. He's a 6'7 slugging machine with some defensive ability but a huge contact ceiling. The hope is the Giants have found their answer to Aaron Judge after missing out on him a few years ago. So far this year he's been a refreshing power bat, and has aided Schmitt, Lee, Luis Arraez and Matt Chapman in keeping the lineup strong.

Then...it finally appears that Rafael Devers might be heating up. His WAR's out of the negatives, which is a start. Now he's got 12 home runs and 38 RBIs, which is much better. Three away from a team lead, that's palpable. I think he's just shaken off the rough 1st two months and is finally getting down to business, which is nice. I also want to point out some unsung guys, like Jonah Cox, playing a minor outfield role but bringing some contact help, as well as Victor Bericoto, who's hit 2 homers in the last 24 hours against the A's, one being a huge walkoff blast. Obviously there's some issues with this lineup, most notably a lack of a real power core [which is what happens when Devers slumps and Heliot Ramos gets hurt], but the runs can get scored in wild ways. Maybe Daniel Susac is the guy one day, maybe Eric Haase's the guy another day, maybe it's Jung Hoo Lee barreling a homer to the moon. There's variety, and that's a start. It's not just on one guy, that helps.

Getting Logan Webb back has helped the rotation, as he and Robbie Ray have been pretty sharp, and Tyler Mahle appears to be getting back to his old tricks. For some reason Landon Roupp hasn't been doing too well since pride night. He's lost his last few starts anyway, but his ERA's now over 4 somehow. Maybe that guy he was writing about on his cap had some funny way of teaching him a lesson about caring for others. But what do I know? Maybe Jeffrey Springs and his 5 ERA can give him a call and tell him to show some remorse. 

The Giants are onto a Braves series next. On paper that should be difficult because...I mean, they're the Braves, but they are in a bit of a cold spell, so it could be up to the Giants to see how things shake out. Maybe Bericoto can keep hitting home runs. It'd be weird if he went on a power tear and Baldwin didn't..

Coming Tomorrow- At the time, the fans didn't understand this trade, especially who the team was giving up. Judging that the guy they received is continuing his contact excellence from LA, I think they understand it now.

No Change Expected

 

There's an old Twilight Zone episode where a sort of cheesy western cowboy hero gets confronted by the real Jesse James for how he's portrayed on his show, and in the end works out a deal where him and his other western legends can be depicted on his show, but only if they beat the shit out of him. Like, alright, you can include Wild Bill Hicock, but only if he outshoots you and makes you look silly.

That is how I can contextualize the modern Astros. They were not penalized for cheating in the 2017 World Series, but their way of paying the piper is this atrophy. It is going around and playing all the teams they embarrassed to get titles and getting the snot beaten out of them. Obviously the Yanks had fun with them this year, but the A's, Mariners, Royals, Tigers, Dodgers, Orioles and Guardians have already notched big wins against them. They have more Tigers games this weekend, we'll see how that goes.

Honestly, in a year with off-peak Jose Altuve, an outfield of .220 hitters, a down year from Yainer Diaz, the two most crucial offseason pitching acquisitions being duds, Hunter Brown being advised to 'go easy out there', a bloated bullpen and barely any general depth....yeah, this is an expected outcome. I don't know what else to say, this is clearly a lesser team, they're trying everything but it's just not working, especially when the three top teams have actual depth.

There are two Astros lineup pieces that I would allow to see in next month's ASG rosters. Yordan Alvarez, who's close to the top vote-getting spot, and deservingly so because good lord, and Jeremy Pena. Even in limited at-bats, Pena has been excellent this year, hitting .284 with 6 homers and 18 RBIs. The production has been much higher, and Pena himself has just felt more powerful than the old 'some skinny kid starting in Correa's place' we used to see. He's got a .451 SLG this year, closer to Christian Walker and Alvarez than usual. He's mixing his usual contact with more pop, and I think it's a very good combination. 

Other than that, man...I dunno. It's really hard to get excited about a team going with Peter Lambert as a good option. I get it, he spent a year in Japan, redid his whole motion or whatnot, but...I looked at his Yakult stats, and that's a 4.26 ERA with an 11-3 record. It's helped him get back under 4, he's got a 3.28 ERA now, but...I dunno, man. Arrighetti's for real, he's in 2024 form for sure. Hunter Brown's looking decent but, again, now that's he's missed time he's still in danger of missing more. There have been better rotations, much like there have been better lineups. 

So yeah, still very much an underwhelming time in Houston. I know this team has a habit of springing to life and scaring me when I think they're cooked, but...look, even last year's version of this team was better. And they all know it I think.

Coming Tonight: The Giants are hitting a lot more than they did at the beginning of this season. This guy has certainly helped. 

Mind the Gap

 

A couple weeks ago, I wrote one of these on the Reds, essentially saying 'obviously the team could crater without Elly de la Cruz, they need to prevent that'. And barring two big wins against the Yankees, they really haven't. 

I got to watch these guys in the Bronx friday night, the one game they lost out of the series, and I saw a team that looked kinda lost. Rhett Lowder was starting, and he's more of a leverage guy than I previously figured. Not a whiffer, at least not anymore. And while his placement was overall pretty strong, on a couple of occasions he put it in the wrong spot and somebody, like Jazz Chisholm or Ben Rice, took advantage. Lowder's also one of those 'don't overthrow or out for ages' kinda guys, so it's a treacherous game to play. The lineup itself, without Elly, felt listless. They've got guys who can hit, like J.J. Bleday or Sal Stewart, but against the Yanks' pitching that night they really couldn't. The heart of that lineup is guys like Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Nate Lowe who are...fine, but...not over the top great. They had Edwin Arroyo in for Elly that night, and...yeah, very replacement level. And the bullpen contains guys like Caleb Ferguson or Zach Maxwell, a guy who throws absolute smoke and has no control over it.

And the things that are working are just kinda weird. Like they have Blake Dunn up right now, and Dunn's one of those guys that's just struggled to find success in the majors, to the point where I always confused him with Oliver Dunn, a Brewers guy who had a similar track record. But Dunn's been excellent covering for T.J. Friedl, and he's hitting .272 with 37 hits in 36 games. Far and away the best hitter in the Elly-less stretch, though Stewart had some bombs in that run too. Bleday is kinda already in this category, I wrote him off after last season and now he's a mainstay yet again. Even Andrew Abbott's having a comparatively strange season, because it started with a lot of rough starts and run bleeding....but by and large he's honestly having a fine year. 3.83 ERA, 5-4 record, 1.8 WAR. He's definitely improved over time, and the Yanks start helped. I think I'm just surprised he's not 2025-good, but it's better than getting hurt, like most Reds pitchers after a strong season. Like you can see that Lodolo and Singer are fried from what they did while healthy last year and look a little strung out. Same with Pagan honestly. So it's very nice that Abbott and Burns are holding up alright.

Still, everything you've heard from the Reds so far this week has been 'look how badly the Brewers' pitching is feasting on them'. First Woodruff has a 1-hit dominant start. Then the other Brandon, Brandon Sproat, has a 1-hit dominant start. They had Shane Drohan tonight, and to be fair he's given up a few more hits, but it is going similarly, otherwise, as I write this. So even with Elly back, that's still the narrative. The Reds are a last place team in a tough division not delivering on the promises of the 2025 season, and waterlogged by injuries and inefficiency despite two genuine starmaking performances. Occasionally you get a cool nugget, like Julian Garcia finally making it to the bigs, but right now that's all they're good for.

Then again...who knows what'll happen when Hunter Greene comes back.

Coming Tomorrow- The Astros have a lot of frayed or vacant pieces this year...but they still have Yordan Alvarez and this guy.

Dropping the Cargo

 

I don't think that 2026 is gonna be enough to completely end the Tigers' current run. I think with the youth that is still coming, and that will remain, they will still be able to compete in the next few years, and can still evolve even with this year. This has just been insanely unlucky for them. It took until now for them to find a rotation that didn't fall apart, and for Framber Valdez to stop coughing up runs. They only won six games during the entire month of May, and are in 4th, barely staying ahead of Kansas City. It's a setback year more than anything.

But...that setback is gonna cost them Tarik Skubal.

Looking ahead to the trade deadline season, I'm already predicting this is gonna be a kind of quiet one comparatively. Some of the biggest assets might be relief specialists and second string catchers and role players. People are trying to go 'will Mike Trout leave' or 'will Byron Buxton leave', and...no. Stop that. They both wanna retire with their current team, drumming this shit up again is gonna waste everyone's time. What WILL be happening, unless the Tigers get their act together in 30 days, is Tarik Skubal's gonna be headed elsewhere. It won't kill the development, as the Tigers will still have Casey Mize, and they'll get Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe back next year. Plus I feel like they've still got some big arms on the way given the farm system's recent success rate. Skubal will not ruin the team, not when they still have Mize and Valdez both doing well as of late. 

And Skubal's had a nice season, with a 3.02 ERA and 57 Ks in 9 starts. It's a little less consistent than usual, and limited thanks to an injury, but it's still peak Skubal. I can only imagine he's being shopped as we speak, and I can only imagine the usual suspects want him. The Dodgers technically don't need pitching right now, but they're greedy enough that they'd offer like Emmet Sheehan, Justin Wrobleski and Landon Knack for him, something silly like that, cause they can. The Yankees do have enough prospects to chase them but Cashman's gonna be like 'do we really NEED to trade Jasson Dominguez, the guy I only play when he's either cold or about to get injured?'. The Cardinals could come out of nowhere and nab him to make themselves competitors. The O's could do it like they were going to two years ago, and offer up all the prospects they don't have room to play. There are probably others. I don't see anyone topping the Dodgers' offer but I'd love to be surprised.

Without Skubal, the Tigers still have some life, including a strong campaign from Keider Montero filling in for Justin Verlander, see excellent stuff from Troy Melton filling in for Jack Flaherty, the usual strong standard of production from Riley Greene, dingers all over the place from Dillon Dingler [who'd have thought, right??], and that ROY-caliber campaign from Kevin McGonigle. They're just too unlucky overall to really be a match for Cleveland or Chicago. I'm not saying they're completely out of it yet, but Skubal's got his foot basically out the door a month before the deadline, so that can't be helpful.

Coming Tonight: A guy who somehow managed to hold down the Yankees this weekend [much like Framber Valdez did last night]. 

4 Real?

 

So we have graduated from 'the NL Central has 5 teams over .500 looking good' to 'the NL East has 4 teams over .500 looking good and also the Mets'. I'll take it.

The Nationals might be the most intriguing team in baseball right now because they're suddenly looking like they're for real, even if logically they're probably another year away. They don't have the pitching yet, they're still trotting Miles Mikolas out there every 5 days. But...they're outhitting virtually everyone in the division right now. I used to think it was just Abrams and Wood, but it's really not. Daylen Lile is still a really ferocious contact guy, and has 8 homers and 37 RBIs. He also has 3 triples, tied with Nasim Nunez, the league leader in stolen bases. Curtis Mead has been extremely helpful in a corner infield spot, with 11 homers and 34 RBIs. Keibert Ruiz is actually having a pretty nice run, with a .280 average, a .783 OPS and 29 RBIs. I was fearing Ruiz had hit his ceiling but he's still got some pop to work with.

And now, suddenly...and I could be wrong on this...I think Dylan Crews might be taking off finally. He's got 5 homers and 16 RBIs in 28 games. It's not pretty, and he still strikes out too much, but he's showing more life than he did before. As I'm writing this he already has another RBI against the Phillies. If they get him working, which is still kinda a long shot but still possible, that could be pretty cool. I dunno when Brady House or Robert Hassell will be fully ready but that could also be a nice aspect if this team continues to build. There's still one or two pieces that feel a bit replacement level, Jose Tena and Jorbit Vivas chief among them. But they're much closer than they were to a really intimidating roster.

And again...I've had the thought of 'what if it happens this year??' Cause they genuinely have been a match for some great teams, and have had outrageous showings against the Braves, Mariners, Padres, Orioles and Guardians. The thing about the rotation is that even if they lack a wow factor ace, a Chris Sale or Paul Skenes type, they have some efficient guys that aren't unreliable as much as they're unlucky. Zack Littell is 6-6, and has a number of really strong starts under his belt, but the rough ones just outweigh them right now. Cade Cavalli has a really strong upside but his ERA's just over 4. Andrew Alvarez is young and a bit untested but he's been pretty stable in his last few starts. Foster Griffin is the surest thing on this team, and even if he's not, like, unbeatable, the Merrill Kelly comparisons should honestly be there, because he's completely rebuilt himself and has been really steady in his first season stateside. Efficiency is just the name of the game. Brad Lord, the longman, is efficient as hell, moreso than a lot of starters. Richard Lovelady, Clayton Beeter and P.J. Poulin are just efficient, sturdy relief pieces. It just works, even if it isn't always pretty.

The Nationals, honestly like the Marlins, have enough depth and perks to really stand a chance in the wild card race if things continue at this pace. If not, the Nats will probably be competitive anyway in a year or so, so it all works out.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the best pitchers in the AL. Who knows how long he'll be staying in the AL though.

From the Insides Out

 

Well clearly you can see the problem with this Jays team. Bo gone, Tony Taters hurt, Kirk out for a month and a half, Vladdie and Springer slumping, Barger hurt, Gimenez and Sanchez cold. All the depth this team had last year and now they're throwing out Yohendrick Piñango and hoping for the best. Egad.

I think the Yanks series kinda said it all, and the Cubs series said a little more. Lightning isn't striking twice with this team, and I know how because it's June, The Month Where the Jays Get Inexplicably Hot, and they're still mid. The Yankees took 2 from the Jays, then the Cubs massacred them on Gausman's watch, to the point where even the highlight of the week, a sweep of the Red Sox, looked inadequate. Like yeah, you can sweep the Sox, anyone could do that, but you go up against a higher profile bad team like the Cubs and get rocked. Where's all the common men? Why are they playing so commonly?

Vlad Jr.'s clearly fallen off, he's only hitting .279 after a rough June and only has 4 homers and 31 RBIs this season. It's just a down year, and he does have those from time to time, but it's happening at such a rough time for this team. Without a solid leader, they need more from the secondary guys like Ernie Clement and Nathan Lukes, and that doesn't work as well. Only one guy on this team has over 10 homers [Kazuma Okamoto], and nobody has an OPS over .800, though Brandon Valenzuela is scraping up against it. It's just not a terribly interesting lineup, which is a shame because...look at what we just had! We just had 'even the bench can kick your ass'. We just had a swiss army knife of guys you've never heard of that hit .300. Now they're just guys you've never heard of AND WILL NEVER HEAR AGAIN.

It's making nice seasons from Dylan Cease and Trey Yesavage seem pedestrian. And let's not forget, the Blue Jays have a guy who's working on one of the best relief seasons in baseball, and that's 2025 trade deadline acquisition Louis Varland. Varland's having a terrific year, with an 0.86 ERA, 57 strikeouts, 15 saves and only 4 earned runs in 42 innings. It is dominance that Louie has shown since the beginning of his 2025 season with Minnesota, and he has only locked in further and further. This guy is one of the factors keeping the Jays on the side of good, along with some other bullpen compatriots [Tyler Rogers, Spencer Miles, Braydon Fisher]. But if the team doesn't hit, that can only do so much.

I still think the Jays have a shot, and they've shown slightly more consistency than Baltimore. If they can get Guerrero to start hitting again they have a chance, especially with Kirk back. I just see the flaws and the replacement level guys and I understand why they're not doing what they did last year. But hey, a lot can change in 3 months.

Coming Tonight: Well, he hasn't hit as many triples as last year so far, but he's still really dangerous at the plate.