Violent Rays

 

Nearly a decade into the Kevin Cash era of Rays baseball, we have flipped the script entirely, and now have a Rays team where the rotation is so good that it makes the team hesitant to hand it to the bullpen. Who'd have thought??

The current rotation plan, as opposed to 2018's plan of 'Blake Snell, Chris Archer, Tyler Glasnow and give it to a reliever', is a much more traditional mindset. McClanahan and Rasmussen up top, Martinez and Matz supplanting, then Jesse Scholtens with an opener. That's remarkably unconvoluted. And so far it's REALLY working. Nick Martinez is having his best season yet, he's 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA in 9 starts. He's not outthrowing like McClanahan and Rasmussen are [despite the fact that it IS working], but he's been dominant, and the Rays' defense has been making it easy work. Having a healthy McClanahan back also helps, he's got a 2.82 ERA, he's 5-2 and he's got 47 Ks. I still think he's trying not to exacerbate things again after missing 2 years at his peak, but it's a fine time for him to be throwing this well. And even Matz has been impressive, going 4-1 with a 3.70 ERA in 8 starts. It's a compact, solid unit of people that can just stay on as Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz and Chandler Simpson make their jobs really easy.

But...the bullpen, people. Bryan Baker does have 13 saves right now, but not all of them have been pretty. That ERA reads 2.66, but it was above 4 a week or so ago. The more you look at this bullpen, the more doesn't sit right. Hunter Bigge ALONE. The man gave up 8 runs IN EXTRAS. TO THE MARLINS. Just got on there hoping for an easy inning and completely exploded. Garrett Cleavinger, Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour aren't much better. Remember, the Rays gave up Taj Bradley for Griffin Jax, and Bradley's having a comeback year in Minneapolis while Jax...tries. He gives up too many walks, gets way too many batters on base and presses his luck. Even the 'better' relievers on this team don't hold a candle to the heights of this administration's pens. This is why you re-sign Pete Fairbanks, or hold onto Andrew Kittredge, or anything. But no, Ian Seymour really was the answer here. Or Mason Englert.

Again, it's a good thing the Rays are really good right now, and hitting .261 as a team with sensational contact hitting and a lot of sharp ideas fueling the fire, but seeing a Rays team with a bad bullpen just feels wrong. Like they haven't thought about what that'll do to them. And it's not like the Dodgers where they can use other starters instead of their bullpen, because they don't have Dodgers money. Not even close. 

The Rays face the Yankees tonight, and this weekend. Gerrit Cole is getting the ball tonight. Then they start next week in Baltimore. If they can get through that with their dignity intact, then we can talk.

Coming Tonight: A rookie who's my age. To any longtime readers, 10 years ago that was kinda cool. I'm now at an age where if I was a rookie in the MLB, I'd get some concerned looks. 

An Apple with a Chunk Taken Out of It

 

The Giants without Logan Webb. That's friggin weird, man. Even if he's back next week, you just don't see that often. It's a reminder of how consistent and reliable Webb could be; once he's taken away the team doesn't really have an identity. And even with Webb they kinda don't, honestly. They've been searching for an identity since Posey retired, and Posey climbing into the front office somehow hasn't helped. Right now, Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames and Harrison Bader have less home runs than utility man Casey Schmitt, who's got 9 home runs and a .293 average while starting at DH virtually everyday. If you're gonna bring Devers, Adames and Bader here, it should not be up to Casey Schmitt to hit all the home runs.

And with an even more depleted lineup, it's even more telling when Logan Webb's gone. Cause that's one start in a week's time where through 6 or 7 innings you're good. Without him, you're pressing your luck with guys like Robbie Ray and Landon Roupp, who are good but imperfect, high ERA innings eaters like Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle, or the occasional bright future spot like Trevor McDonald whose ceiling still seems unknown. It's shakier ground than usual, and the fact that nobody's really hitting doesn't make the fact that two different pitchers have 6 losses particularly surprising. What is surprising is the strength of the bullpen right now. Matt Gage, Keaton Winn, Caleb Kilian, Joel Peguero, Sam Hentges and Ryan Borucki have all been pretty great. It's just a matter of scoring runs before they get there, and we're not really there yet.

This team has multiple guys brought in here specifically to make a difference that just aren't. Jung Hoo Lee is still maddeningly average, hitting .268 with 17 RBIs. Drew Gilbert is still not MLB ready, and neither is Bryce Eldridge or Jesus Rodriguez. Adames and Chapman are more fine than anything but we've seen them both do way better, especially by May. Devers has 6 homers and 20 RBIs, but is hitting .246 and has 61 strikeouts. The reliable accuracy of his Boston peak seems to have dissipated. Plus, without Heliot Ramos, they've taken to throwing Eric Haase in the outfield, which...isn't terrific. This team does still have Schmitt, Luis Arraez and Daniel Susac, so SOME people are hitting, but enough of the team is more okay than anything, and not in the way this team is usually okay.

And it stands out even more when the Dodgers, Padres and even the Diamondbacks are actually good this year. This is a year where the Giants looked close, and made steps to move in on the competition, but they're still here. And it's a wonder they're still in fourth given how many more Rockies are hitting right now. I know there's always time to rebound, but I'm seeing the same old stumbles even with a new regime. And a surprise breakout from Schmitt might not be enough.

Coming Tomorrow- He spent years as a depth starter turned swingman turned depth starter again. So when the Rays actually sign him with intent to start him consistently, imagine their surprise when he...became their best starter.

With Meatballs

 

So, what are the Astros without Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, Lance McCullers, Josh Hader or Cristian Javier? Well...beatable, for one.

It should not have taken an injury-depleted year to illuminate the desperation of this Astros team. This organization has been so good for so long at replenishing the well and keeping the firm train of young players going, but take out enough of the core and you see the team for what it is. A bunch of people who've never known a year without success, trying so hard to do the same things they've done the last seven or eight times and getting frustrated that nothing's working. Yordan Alvarez is hitting .300 with 15 homers and 31 RBIs and I think he's growing concerned that this isn't enough anymore. When you don't have Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel or even Altuve behind you, so much more is on you, and by that point the long ball isn't always enough.

Let's examine the rest of this lineup and see if we can spot the flaws. The outfield is young, which is impressive considering the rest of the lineup, but they're all honestly too young. Cam Smith, Brice Matthews and Zach Cole are all under 25, and have been tasked to keep the outfield afloat. Any help, such as Taylor Trammell, Joey Loperfido, or even the recently-activated Jake Meyers, seems ineffective. Meanwhile, Christian Vasquez is starting behind the plate everyday, and while he's doing alright for himself, he's coming off as little more than a replacement option. Same with Braden Shewmake, the former Braves prospect who made the team out of necessity, and is starting virtually everyday at 2nd. He's better than Brendan Rodgers, and is hitting .291 with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs in 19 games, but...is still very much a replacement option. The fact that it already feels like it's just Alvarez, Christian Walker and a bunch of scrubs isn't a great sign, especially since that's what it felt like at many points last year. Trammell was getting prime lineup space. It wasn't pretty.

The rotation's not terrific either. They're burning through starting options quickly, and are down to depth options. Peter Lambert, former Rockies prospect that I hadn't thought about in four years, has made 6 starts, and has 35 strikeouts- he's been a decent place filler. Tatsuya Imai, thought to be the kill switch in the offseason, has been awful, with an 8.31 ERA in 5 starts. It's gotten so dire that they're now stretching out former Giant Kai-Wei Teng as a starting option, and while it's sort of working so far, the fact that he may not have even been in the top 10 choices to start is pretty concerning. This is Reds levels of desperation.

Despite all of that, they have Mike Burrows and his 5.72 ERA, which...how is HE the one guy that stays healthy, and the return of Spencer Arrighetti. The man loves to strike people out, and he's been doing a lot of that so far, with 35 in 6 starts, plus a 5-1 record and a 1.50 ERA. His last start was looking like a no-hitter for a bit, until the Rangers got a hit literally the second I tuned in. In an era where the Astros can regularly be counted on for multiple young, lethal starting options, right now it's just Arrighetti. No rookies, at the moment, coming in to save the day...just replacement options. This is where we're at.

I assume that at some point people are gonna start coming back and the team will attempt to be good again, but you can only really put a bow on a team like this, you can't make it something else. The Phillies' issues at least could be fixed with a regime change. These are way more foundational, and way harder to come back from. But this is, at the end of the day, the Astros, and they do hate me, so we'll see how far they get this October.

[I'm joking, please don't actually be a playoff team this year.]

Coming Tomorrow- The Giants don't have a ton going on right now, but at least they have this guy.

Too Top-Heavy for the Bottom

 

The Pirates, more than any other team that I can currently gather, have a great deal of guys built like a transmission tower. Wide necked, large torso'd, top heavy shtarkers. Like...something I've seen in athletes that genuinely perplexes me is the kind of shoulder and chest muscle conditioning that makes you look like your neck is more of an afterthought than anything, it's more torso than neck. Takeo Spikes used to look like that, just the massive neckmonster roaming the countryside. And that's most of the Pirates right now. Konnor Griffin, Nick Gonzales, Ryan O'Hearn, Spencer Horwitz and Henry Davis just walk around looking like they're holding in their breath, they lean back and hits come flying out, and then they stand there in the locker room going '...yeahweplayedourbestoutthere...uhm...Paulcertainlygavehisall, but y'know...intheend...', etc.

I'm not implying there's cloning going on in Pittsburgh. It's rich to assume they've perfecting cloning technology when we've established that they can't even get the humidor to work. They're just getting their conditioning reps in and that seems to be helping. The Pirates are closer to good than they've been in a while. In fact, since they're over .500...they might just be...good. 

Nick Gonzales having a decent year proves this is all heading in the right direction, because he always felt like a placeholder infield guy to me, didn't really accomplish a lot. He CAN hit though, and now it seems like it's for a reason. He's hitting .318 right now with 48 hits [one less than team leader Oneil Cruz, wait WHAT??] and 19 RBIs. Yet to launch any long balls, but this team has Cruz, Ozuna and BRANDON LOWE for that. Gonzales is just a great contact guy to have around, and to see him looking well-rounded at last is a great sign. Also great to see Bryan Reynolds hitting well again, he's got 26 RBIs and 4 homers. Cruz has 10 homers and 32 RBIs despite the usual obvious flaws. And Griffin, while not a full world-beater yet, stole 10 straight bases successfully to start his career and has 20 RBIs. Those top-heavy brutes seem to be turning this team around, and with help from famed little guy Brandon Lowe and his outrageous power hitting. 

What's wild is we're beginning to see the limits of the starting pitching, which I figured would be doing most of the work by now. On Sunday the Phillies scored 5 runs off of Paul Skenes, which I did not think was possible. His ERA is now a measly 2.62, which means the Phillies and the Mets were responsible for keeping that thing above 2 pretty much. Mitch Keller is having a bit too many starts where he gives up 3 runs, and while the rest of the start is by and large fine he's just not as dominant as he was. Bubba Chandler's not the guy yet, Carmen Mlodzinski's more 'good' than great. At least Braxton Ashcraft's keeping the pace strong with a lot of innings of great work. Eventually Jared Jones is gonna get back here and level things a tad, but until then this unit just needs to rebound from a poor week and settle back in, which is still possible.

I just want the Pirates to stay above .500 and keep surprising people. The Cardinals and Cubs may have the momentum in this division, but the Pirates still have a lot going for them, and only hope to grow into themselves as we proceed.

Coming Tonight: The majority of his rotation is injured, but luckily he's fully healthy again, and surging. 

Enjoy Him While He's Here

 

The title of this does not imply that Byron Buxton would ever leave the Twins. He's said many times he wants to be a Twin for life, they want to keep him around, I can't see him playing anywhere else. The title refers to the fact that despite being one of the best pure hitters in Twins history, and a central figure of so many exciting Twins teams, Byron Buxton has never played a full 162 game season. The closest he's gotten is 140 in 2017, and 126 last year. Otherwise he rarely makes it past 100 games. He couldn't even play all 60 games of the 2020 season. There is always an injury or some scratch or something that prevents Buxton from impacting this team other than in 90 or so games.

The closest thing the Minnesota Twins to a guy who played their entire career in Minnesota and became a legend is Tony Oliva, Joe Mauer, or eventually someone like Kent Hrbek or Brad Radke. Puckett had a great career but it only lasted 12 years. Carew was terrific but left after a decade. Killebrew was a Washingtonian first. Santana left, Morneau left, Kaat and Blyleven left, etc etc. The Twins don't have an Ernie Banks or a Barry Larkin or a Cal Ripken, two decades of strong work. And what they have is good, but there's always a but. You get a top-tier hitter who excels at the game for 9 years, buuuut he gets hurt and retires in his early 30s. Or you get one of the best contact hitters of his era, but he decides he just doesn't want to play in Minneapolis after a while.

Byron Buxton has given grade-a, terrific performances...*when* he is healthy. He's only played 938 games in 12 years. He's hit 183 home runs, 459 RBIs, 812 hits. Half of his career is missing. I'm sure he'd have double those totals by now if he'd stayed healthy, and he may have even helped his team towards better postseason results, and more than that single measly postseason series win. But as is...the Twins just have an all-American hero who lifts the team whenever he is there, and is routinely extremely good. Buxton has a 31.4 WAR in that time, despite missing time, meaning when he is healthy, he's responsible for 4 or 5 wins on his own. This is the effect he has on the Twins, who've struggled the past few years.

Last season was our fullest picture in a while of Buck's full potential, and he hit 35 homers and 83 RBIs. At 32 years old, he's still got some peak energy left, and is trying to do everything he can to perform at this level before his body refuses to left him. So far this season, Buxton's post-30 upswing has continued, with 15 home runs, 23 RBIs and an .899 OPS. That is everything you want right there. Hitting great, still powerful, decent enough in the outfield, and still loved by everyone. The Twins are beginning to run out of pillars, as they've still got Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober but a lot of people have left. They just sent down Royce Lewis, which should tell you everything you need to know about what he's turned into. Keaschall and Lee have backslid, Zebby Matthews and Connor Prielipp are promising but not cemented yet. Buxton's really all they have that they know works right now, and even for a weaker Twins team, that's enough.

The Twins know they're not built like the Dodgers, so they're just trying to outdo everyone's expectations. And right now they're ahead of the Tigers in the standings, so mission accomplished there. Let's see what else they can do, and what else Buxton can help them out with.

Coming Tomorrow- I did not think he'd ever end up with a starting position on a competitive version of this team, but the guy sure can hit. 

Money for Dingers in 2026

 

So, to recap. Two of the most effective home run hitters in baseball signed new contracts this offseason. One has been called a necessary and needed move, the other has been questioned and criticized. Both are essentially doing what they were paid to do, but because one has done it a lot more frequently, and immediately, that one's seen as superior to the other one, who's younger and arguably more consistent.

Pete Alonso is 31 years old, and to date he's hit 272 home runs in 8 years. With the exception of 2020, only one of those years finished without Alonso reaching 35 home runs. The man is a hitting machine who makes the all-star team virtually every year, routinely knocks over 100 RBIs, and last year led the league in doubles with 41. Yet when the Orioles signed him to a 5-year deal a few months ago, the immediate response was trepidation. A lot of that had to do with the last time the O's gave a contract to a power-hitting 1st baseman, Chris Davis, where the power suddenly shut off without warning midway through. Yet I don't know if a lot of it was fair to Alonso, who through his first 7 seasons proved himself superior to Davis, and arguably more multifaceted. Davis was a good hitter with a few strong years; Alonso's a reliable lineup presence who can come through when you need him. 

So far for Baltimore, Alonso has 8 home runs and 26 RBIs. It looks inferior when you compare him to a guy who has, say, 20 homers by now, but knowing that Alonso regularly hits his stride midyear, and has hit 106 homers past the trade deadline in his career, it's not especially scary. The other thing you need to remember is that the Orioles' lineup right now is built in a way where Alonso doesn't always need to hit the home runs. Sometimes it's Gunnar Henderson or Adley Rutschman, sometimes it's hot-hitting rookie Samuel Basallo, and eventually it'll be Taylor Ward, who's surprisingly only hit 1 home run despite a solid contact spring. Alonso is the key power hitter, but it's not as on him as it may have been in New York. 

Not helping Alonso's value has been the generally mild start the Orioles have had, with a lot of missed opportunities, a disappointing start from newly-extended Shane Baz, the complete implosion of Trevor Rogers and a really messy May. There are elements of this team that work, like Basallo as an extra power bat and Rico Garcia's breakout year in the 'pen, but as a unit they're not on the same page yet, and it's led to disappointing baseball.

Now, as for Kyle Schwarber. He's 33 years old, has hit 360 home runs in 6 years, and signed a 5-year contract to DH in Philly til 2030. Again, Schwarber is the same kind of hitter as Alonso, he just strikes out a ton more and only recently remembered how to hit things other than home runs. But because Philly fans need that immediate source of dopamine, he's regarded a ton higher, and because he's hit 20 so far his contract seems like more of a win than Alonso's. Forgetting that...yeah, he's 33, and he strikes out 200 times a year. The power ceiling is always super high, and with that 20 HR mark he's already staring down his career high of 56 that he set just last year, but that's basically all the Phils are paying for. Well...that and having the ultimate clubhouse enthusiast, nicknamed DJ Schwarbs on account of his post-game music selection. He's the kind of guy you want on your team, and he's the kind of guy who makes you want to make a postseason run, as he's been proving since he woke up the Sox in 2022, or even his rookie year in 2016 in Chicago. 

The Phils are 14-4 since firing Rob Thomson and bringing Don Mattingly up, and Schwarber's power has been one key aspect of the surge. Bryce Harper's power has also helped, his one man spite mission against Dave Dombrowski has resulted in a .277 average, 12 homers and 30 RBIs. Brandon Marsh is hitting .327, Bohm and Stott are very quickly heating up, Sanchie and Wheels are lights-out [Sanchez just had a gem of a CGSO], Duran still works as a closing option, and those close games can be won [just look at the Pirates series, or last night's game against the Reds]. They're only a game over .500 and in 2nd, but they look better than they have all year, and as they head for a really tough week of matchups they have so much more life in them.

I think both power hitters will finish with seasons they can be proud of. I just hope the fans will take everything into account as they judge these contracts. Cause they really are the same kind of hitter, and they both deserve the same level of respect.

Coming Tonight: If he were to have stayed healthy in every season, he'd have around 400 homers and be a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame. But alas...

The Bounce-Back Kids

 

The thing about Ildemaro Vargas's 2026 season so far is that you would think it would be precedented. We've seen surprise breakout seasons from thirtysomething utility men before. Remember Donovan Solano's Giants run? He'd been a Marlins background guy for years, got to SF, suddenly became a multifaceted hitter who, if the 2020 season had been full, MAY have been an All-Star. Remember Marco Scutaro taking off in Toronto and becoming an all-star second baseman...with the Giants [okay I'm sensing a theme here]? Remember Mark Loretta becoming indispensable in his mid30s with Boston? Jose Valentin as a Dodger? It's happened before, in many different ways.

But...Ildemaro Vargas's work so far feels different. He was always a fun utility guy to have around before. Y'know, he'd give you 90 games, play all four infield positions, maybe crack a surprise contact hit, do something cool. Now, through 34 games, Vargas has already topped his season totals in RBIs, home runs and average, and is nearly there with hits and total bases. He's hitting .333 with 7 homers and 31 RBIs, has a .549 SLG, and is one of the most important hitters in a D-Backs lineup that also features Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo. Somehow THIS GUY is the centerpiece of this lineup. And honestly, I'm 100% here for it. Cause even as a utility guy with Washington and Chicago and Arizona and Minnesota, he was still a lot of fun. Never a starter, but always a handy guy to have around. And now...he hits homers and is a decision-maker. Not for a bottom tier D-Backs team either, this team's in third and near .500.

Inexplicable comebacks does seem to be the theme of this D-Backs team. Guys who were thought unnecessary or unneeded coming in to seriously help things out. James McCann's still getting reps as backup catcher at 36. Michael Soroka and Eduardo Rodriguez are both having serious bounce-back years following injury-plagued high ERA years. Paul Sewald, despite a 4.41 ERA, has 10 saves and seems to be keeping the job. Jonathan Loiasiga seems to have outrun the injury bug and has a 3.12 ERA in his new home. Bizarrely, rumors of Nolan Arenado's decline seem to have been incorrect, as he's hitting .273 with 6 homers and 23 RBIs, better than his Cardinals numbers around this time last year. 

And let's not forget about the fact that Corbin Carroll is delivering yet another peak season, continuing his stellar run with a .278 average, 7 homers, 24 RBIs and a league-leading 4 triples. This is the kind of damage you want Carroll doing, and he's very much normalized his brand of production. He's still looking for his first career 100+ RBI year, but even a fourth-consecutive 30+ steal year or another 30+ homer year [30/30 v2??] would suffice at this point.

The D-Backs are very much playing for the middle of the pack. They don't have the pitching to really chase the Padres or Dodgers right now, but they have the hitting to spoil them and keep in the conversation. Merrill Kelly just had a wonderful start, so if he and Gallen turn things around, and if Burnes returns at peak condition eventually, they could be a surprise wild card factor. How about that? Granted, we've said this before and it hasn't happened, but those teams didn't have the .300-hitting stylings of Ildemaro Vargas, now did they?

Coming Tomorrow- He's in his early 30s, he primarily hits home runs, and he just got a lot of money. This could be a recipe for disaster. It could also be incredible.