Worth the Toll Fare?

 
Yanks-Phils. The series where once a year I can go 'whoever wins, I can be happy'. The Yanks had a rough June but seem to be good again. The Phils are fully in Donnie Baseball era and are still riding the midyear momentum despite a slight slowdown. Now they can just beat each other up in peace and hopefully continue to rise upward.

Last night's game was a win for the boys in navy, and they did it on one single Paul Goldschmidt home run, off Jesus Luzardo. I'm not sure if it's concerning that the only guy in the lineup that scored any runs was Paul Goldschmidt, who is 38, or comforting that the Yanks' starter not only held the Phils down but worked a shutout. Obviously these guys are trying to jumpstart their lineup and get it to where there aren't as many so-called automatic outs, and the deadline deals will likely help, but they need their lineup to feel like a deep well of possibilities. It's helping that Jazz Chisholm seems to be on the way up again, he's got 16 homers and 43 RBIs, with 27 steals. It's still a possibility that he repeats as a 30-30 guy, though...the initial prediction of 50/50 might be a-ways off. Still love what he brings to the team, even if he's a little full of himself. Dominguez and Volpe are on their way, and Dominguez already has 5 homers and 12 RBIs. But the issue is that Judge and Stanton are both out, McMahon and Wells have been embarrassingly limited, and the lineup still feels inconsistent. Will an Arraez or a Jeffers help this? Who knows.

But their strengths are still the same. Cody Bellinger is an excellent contact hitter and made a game-saving catch last night in left. Cam Schlittler is still a Cy Young candidate with so many strengths, and now Cole and Fried are back and healthy, ensuring the pitching is as strong as it was meant to be [and don't count Warren or Weathers out entirely either]. Brent Headrick has been untouchable as a setup man, and David Bednar finally feels like The Renegade again. They're still a formidable team with a halfway decent chance of lapping the Rays very soon, and they could go on a nice run even if the 'run it back' strategy has deterred many pundits from thinking there'll be palpable success.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are resting on the fundamentals. The top 3 guys in the rotation, Kyle Schwarber, and the CBP atmosphere. And they're hoping that's enough. Right now it is. For a lot of this season it has been that simple. Maybe I'm underselling it- Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, Jhoan Duran and occasionally Alec Bohm have been very helpful. But it really comes down to Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo being on top of their games. Luzardo, despite giving up the fatal homer last night, has been lights-out the last two months, and has a 3.30 ERA in 20 starts. Sanchez has been a little shakier this month but still has a 2.71 ERA, a league-leading 12 wins and 151 Ks. Wheeler, despite the missed month, is otherworldly right now, 10-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 117 Ks in 16 appearances. If the sportswriters didn't have a bias against him for some reason, I think that should result in Cy Young votes, but...y'know, I don't think he'll be the shiniest object for some reason. 

There's still a deep pit in the lineup that's trying to be exhumed. Turner, Stott and Crawford just aren't cutting it right now. Realmuto is better but not peak J.T. The Derek Hill addition has helped more than anyone has thought, he's hitting .290 with 4 homers and 9 RBIs, and I'm of the opinion that, even if the Phils bring on some new guys, Hill should keep starting. Dude deserves it. There's also the usual problems of a lack of rotation depth and a mess in the bullpen. We will no doubt try to pull bullpen upgrades but I still think it's just cursed. Duran is the outlier. We've brought in so many sure bets and they've all keeled over. This McFarlane kid better be something different. The idea is the Phils will try and pull in a big ticket rotation guy, and that could mean anything from Skubal to Wacha to Peralta to 'well, here's Tomoyuki Sugano, have fun'. 

I want both of these teams to go deep. They both technically could, but still have some issues to deal with. We'll see how it pans out ultimately, but at the very least we're in an era where both my favorite teams are competitive and fun, and that's always better for me.

Coming Tonight: Ironically a guy who might be headed to New York if you believe the rumors. 

Its Barest Essentials

 

The 3D chess it took for the Diamondbacks to trade Merrill Kelly, then bring him back alongside the two pitching prospects they got for him, buy Nolan Arenado for a low price to ensure that St. Louis was the problem, sign Eduardo Rodriguez knowing he won't be great immediately but he will be great eventually, and pick up Jonathan Loiasiga at the exact time he figures out how to stay healthy. After years of just being too late, or too early, or not enough...have the Arizona Diamondbacks somehow figured out how to make the playoffs again?

I mean, nobody said it couldn't be done, but after the 2024 and 2025 playoff attempts fell short, it was looking like the 2023 run was extremely flukey. Not that the pieces from that team didn't remain, and weren't still active, but the atrophy was clear. Moreno struggled to stay healthy, Gallen and Kelly's full seasons eventually took their toll, the bullpen got old, Brandon Pfaadt didn't develop laterally, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. didn't fully showcase the 2023 numbers after the fact. But this season, there's been enough spark to convince people there's something here. Carroll, Perdomo and Marte never really worried anyone, but Gabriel Moreno's having another terrific season, hitting .309 with 7 homers and 36 RBIs in 79 games. I think we all blinked and he was hitting .300, thanks to some great work the last couple months. Carroll has 15 homers and 49 RBIs, and still has the speed to leg out all those triples. Ryan Waldschmidt seems to be sinking in as an everyday OF option, and Jorge Barrosa seems to be the answer in center for now. It's clear they're still a few pieces away from truly chasing the competition, but the formula's working. Before the break they swept the Dodgers, something the Padres can never do when given the opportunity. Maybe there's something here.

If so, this month may not even be fully indicative of the team's output, as the rotation's pretty banged up at the moment. In a week or so they'll get Mike Soroka back, and sometime later Gallen and Burnes will return. But even now, Rodriguez is driving the ghost shift, and both Kohl Drake and Mitch Bratt have been effective filling in for the usual guys. Maybe they'll be cannon fodder if the D-Backs want a more permanent answer for the stretch run, but it's nice they're keeping things moving. But even with a depleted rotation, the team's hitting, the bullpen's strong, there's more youth mobility than there was before, and there's even room for the ill-fated Max Kepler Redemption Campaign.

It's way too soon to tell if the D-Backs' current holding of the wild card spot will stand for the rest of the season. The Cardinals also want it, the Padres also want it, the Marlins want it a little and I believe the Padres might also have wanted it at some point. It's never a simple wild card race for the D-Backs, and they'll need to outlast their previous incarnations and power through despite oncoming intimidation. If this team can keep a surge lasting this long, it can happen. I just still can't tell if they're that team anymore.

Coming Tomorrow- The single flashiest player in baseball, and in the perfect city for him.

It's Yours. Go Take It.

 

I think the best word to describe the Mariners this year would be 'reluctant'. So far this year, the AL West has been led by the Athletics, who then punted and fell apart last month, then the Rangers, who are likely going to relinquish it again soon, all while the Mariners flirt with greatness while being the only great team in the division. Like you kinda want to let them in on it, right? Like, these other guys are gonna keep doing this, you have to try and stay ahead of them or this whole thing is gonna be for nothing. 

The Mariners, just like in 2024, have a rotation full of people genuinely good at what they're doing, and not in danger of going anywhere. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock and Bryan Woo are all working on terrific seasons, and not in a worrying way. Longevity is the name of the game with all these guys, especially Gilbert, Kirby and Woo. Gilbert's been here since 2021, he's still extremely good and makes all his starts, and this season he's got a 3.38 ERA and 129 Ks in 20 starts. Bryce Miller's only made 10 starts so far and he has a 2.27 ERA, with 71 Ks and a 2.0 WAR. Miller was doing this sort of lights-out work in last year's playoffs, and is gearing up for a similar run if the Mariners have it in them this year.

And...do they?? No one on this team has more than 15 homers. No one on this team has more than 48 RBIs. No one on this team is hitting over .281. Josh Naylor and Cal Raleigh were supposed to carry this team and are doing very okay, and Cole Young and Randy Arozarena are essentially doing all the work. Julio Rodriguez has 15 homers and 43 RBIs, and we've all seen him do better. He just picks the weirdest times to heat up honestly. Same with Luke Raley, who was wonderful in mid-May and has completely evaporated any sense of forward momentum. It's not that this team isn't hitting; many of them are. The issue is that the unified intimidation factor from last year, where any of Rodriguez or Arozarena or Naylor or Raley or Canzone can beat your ass, seems to be gone. Maybe Cole Young will drive in a run and get 3 hits but nobody's an everyday hero this year. They just pick their moments. Also Cole Emerson is still ramping up to the numbers the prospectors assumed he'd be at by now. We can't have another Jarred Kelenic on our hands.

The Mariners have a habit of lining everything up in August, and that'll need to happen this time. Last time they were a little better than they are now, and more of a position to buy. Right now they're a hare under .500 and need to win over the Rangers to retake the division. They had two low-level teams this week and went 3-3. If this series goes similarly they may need the help even more than they initially did. Hopefully whatever happens makes them into a better competitor, because if it's this current incarnation, I don't think the run's lasting as long as last year's.

Coming Tonight: Former World Series catcher having, at last, a strong and healthy year once again. 

Seiya So

 

Usually around this time of year, the Chicago Cubs are either cartwheeling out of a playoff spot or cartwheeling out of first. This year's no different. The Brewers have a padded lead of the NL Central, and 7 games back are the Cubs, at 57-45, well over .500 after their stumble in late May. They've been rock-solid ever since, are still a proven competitor, and are looking at a playoff spot, even if it's not the safest one. I know this sounds an awful lot like last season's Cubs team, but they swear it's different.

Although, last season's Cubs team had a healthy Cade Horton, better seasons from Imanaga, Boyd and Taillon, and the Kyle Tucker factor. Now we have a mediocre Alex Bregman season, a snakebitten rotation, a very scattered bullpen [Palencia keeps getting hurt], and an alarming lack of upward momentum. Matt Shaw, Kevin Alcantara and Moises Ballesteros are all stalling at the gate after big callups last year, and there haven't been any real younger Cubs coming to save the rotation either. Is this team moving forward? Can it move forward at all?

If this team does anything long-term this season, it'll be because the lineup has packed so much run production in there that other teams can't handle it. Seiya Suzuki has 17 homers, 53 RBIs and an .831 OPS, and this is a walk in the park year for him. He routinely gets the OPS over .800, routinely produces tons of runs. Just a steady RBI guy, the exact kind of guy the team needed without being too big or two one-dimensional. Michael Busch has been like that too, just gets in there, produces runs, doesn't need to do much else. He's only got 13 home runs and 54 RBIs but the season's still sort of young. Ian Happ has 18 homers and 45 RBIs, and has continued to be this consistent source of power for a good half-decade or so.  Dansby Swanson's very hot-and-cold, but when he's hot he's unstoppable. And then you have Pete Crow-Armstrong once again working on an MVP campaign, not only hitting .282 with a .900 OPS, 22 homers, 55 RBIs and 25 steals, but some of the best outfield catches in the game. He's nailing every facet of this game and doing exactly what the Cubs knew he could. 

Beyond that, there's still work to be done. David Peterson and Jameson Taillon are getting crucial big game situations and can't really contend with them right now. Imanaga and Boyd are okay but have been better. There's no slam dunk guy in this rotation because Steele and Horton are out, and while Steele should be back soonish, a lot will be on his shoulders when he does get back. Basically, this team isn't a playoff WINNING team if they don't have starters that know what they're doing. The Cubs will be going up against teams like the Brewers, Dodgers, Braves and Phillies, and they all have excellent rotations for a playoff schematic. What do the Cubs have right now? And if they want Skubal, do they have the prospects to make it work? Will they GO for Kevin Alcantara or Matt Shaw? 

The Cubs have a team that could surprise some people this year, it's just not complete, and I don't know if it will be.

Coming Tomorrow- Something I've noticed in the last couple seasons is that he may not be prompt, he may not begin the season on the active roster, but when he gets there, he makes it count. 

G Unit

 

I had issues a few years ago with the Guardians calling up a supplementary younger rotation while its preexisting rotation [Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, Carrasco] was still hanging around. And for a bit it was this weird mix of old and new arms, and there was this dissonance that didn't entirely work. Then last year something finally clicked, and we settled on a formula of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi and....Logan Allen.

And then Parker Messick swung in for Allen and we all went 'yeah, that does work a lot better.'

It hasn't always been pretty. Cecconi is still mostly an innings eater. Bibee will have some rough starts. Williams can still be wild. But this unit has gotten more done than most other incarnations, and that's because they all do exactly what's asked. Joey Cantillo is 8-5, has 112 strikeouts, and though he has a higher WHIP because of the walks he gives up, he's still a solid MLB starter with, funnily enough, the same record as Parker Messick who has a much lower ERA and is much more fundamentally strong pitcher. I always thought Gavin Williams was the best overall pitcher here, as the strikeout artist, but he's got a 4 ERA and 10 wins.

And then Tanner Bibee, who goes back and forth between steady and infuriating, is on a pretty steady run. He's got his ERA down to 3.86, has a 1.151 WHIP, and despite the Guardians continuously not winning his starts [he's got 9 losses], he's still a smart choice and a good guy to pack innings on. I'm glad he's settled in, and I'm glad he's got Messick and Williams to sort of fall in behind. It's like how Aaron Nola needed Zack Wheeler. Bibee seems to have the hang of things, and could get even stronger as we go.

The Guardians were already good, and now some of the things that weren't working before have been clicking into place. Steven Kwan is finally hitting again, and is hitting .400 this month with 18 hits and 5 RBIs, back to what's expected for the fan favorite. Austin Hedges is somehow hitting .280, and Patrick Bailey has somehow been hitting pretty nice as a backup catcher. Jose Ramirez just came off the IL and immediately hit a home run. DeLauter's heating up again, Gaddis is looking like his 2025 peak again, and Rhys Hoskins is somehow still leading the team in home runs. It's still not entirely pretty but the formula works, and there's enough to keep charging at Chicago.

As I'm writing this it's not looking like they're gonna top the White Sox quite yet, but they're still threatening to, and it could happen very soon if the Sox aren't careful. Look, with all the rough records in the first half, the Guardians are gonna be over .500 and competitive very soon, and it'll make the first half all worth it.

Coming Tonight: Cubs RBI machine, third or fourth year running. 

Find Grant

[First of all, to the MLB intern who did a Game Changer tribute post on twitter, including a 'Count the Ben Rice' and 'Find Grant Holmes', may you be rewarded for your niche interests. Game Changer, for those of you who aren't aware...oh god that's all of you, and it's a lot to explain. Consult your nearest weird nephew I guess. But it's a good thing. I swear.]

Grant Holmes becoming a household-ish name is not something I'd have predicted. I pulled a card of him out of 2015 Pro Debut, this schtarker of a Dodgers minor leaguer with a massive afro looking larger than anyone else on the field. And I'm going 'this is what counts for a Dodgers prospect these days? Ookay.' And of all the prospects from that set that didn't make the majors, he was at least one of the more notable ones. You don't forget a Grant Holmes. I genuinely thought he was Australian. Nah, just large. But he stuck around the minors for a decade, becoming a fixture of the A's double-A and triple-A teams, then right as he was getting the hang of things the pandemic happened, as did some strain concerns. He was cut in mid-2022, picked up by the Braves and kept as a minor league piece, eventually making the majors, at last, in 2024 at age 28. And from there it only got better, as Holmes' availability became his saving grace, as his low-velocity, leverage-friendly stuff kept him from missing much time, and gave him a fair amount of playing time compared to the other, more injury-prone Braves starters.

Holmes is now 30, and he's having his fullest season to date, with a 3.70 ERA, 78 Ks and a 6-4 record in 18 starts. It's not flashy [the Braves have Chris Sale for that] but it is efficient. He's gotten into some trouble fairly recently, especially the later he goes in games, but he's enough of a rock that the Braves don't have to worry too greatly. It's very odd that guys like Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes and Martin Perez have provided more stability to this rotation than Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider and Huston Waldrep. That's how good the Braves are this year, they did well with a rotation of Chris Sale and some scrubs essentially. And now things are kind of turning around and it's possible that they're gonna need a fuller, younger rotation to keep the Phillies and Marlins away.

Thankfully this team still has Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris playing beautifully, and Ronald Acuna should be back fairly soon. The team also seems to have found their everyday shortstop, as Jim Jarvis, the guy they got from the Tigers last year for Rafael Montero, is batting .292 in 15 games and already is becoming a fan favorite. Austin Riley finally seems to be heating up, Mike Yastrzemski is providing great insurance as a depth outfielder, and the bullpen currently holds three of the most dangerous relievers in the game right now. It's a well-rounded team that's gotten over its June swoon and is still staying ahead of the Phils [who, luckily for the Braves, had to play the defending champions this week]. 

It's a team that can utilize Grant Holmes prominently and it's still a good team. I kinda love that.

Coming Tomorrow- He was supposed to be the ace of his current rotation. That hasn't really happened, but he's still a pretty strong arm on there.

Bake-Off

 

Once again, you have to hand it to the Rays. They took talent that was lying dormant in another market, nabbed him for a bargain, made him a star and will now likely profit. Bryan Baker, you may have struggled to find stability with the O's, but now you're an all-star closer for a competitor. Somehow.

Baker I always liked with the Orioles because he was one of those constants that the fans loved. Made most of his appearances, did his job efficiently, balanced out the rough moments. I saw him pitch for the O's last year before he was traded and he seemed to have his stuff. The Rays must have known. They dealt for him, worked on some things, and gave him the ninth. So far he's got 25 saves with a 1.69 ERA, and has been the bright spot of a Rays bullpen that is doing its best without the homegrown depth it usually has. Ian Seymour, Cole Sulser and Garrett Cleavinger are usually viable options but they're not having great seasons. Casey Legumina still isn't the answer. They picked up Chris Roycroft and he hasn't been much better. Even late career Craig Kimbrel is flailing given the opportunity. I guess they can't have a young collective of ace relievers again for another couple years. 

It goes to show that the Tampa Bay Rays, most years but especially this one, specialize in having guys that can do one thing extremely well and most other things not well at all. They corner the market on niche specialists with no range. Where else can you find Nick Fortes, a catcher that doesn't hit and doesn't need to, Chandler Simpson, an ace-base stealer who hits triples but can't hit home runs, Ryan Vilade, who's built like an armed bodyguard but can't play left field, Richie Palacios, who...we're still not sure what he does well but the Rays sure need him, and Taylor Walls, the best infield defender in baseball with literally no offensive ability. The idea is these people don't need to be good at everything, they need to be good at the thing that they're best at, and pooling their resources together, they make a great team.

Now, granted, this only works because of the presence of a choice few multifaceted pieces, such as Junior Caminero, Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda, but the Rays-ball mentality of putting in the guy that works the best vs. the most well known and expensive version just works. It's been nearly a decade of this, you can never count these teams out, they're never bottom feeders and they're always one strong month away from competing. Right now they're competitive. Does this have to do with the fact that the Yankees are in a downswing? I'm supposed to say no. But in all honesty, the Rays are very good this year, have had a very nice month, and despite losing three straight to the Red Sox, still have a nice hold on the AL East. It's an imperfect hold, and the Yanks are shooting back up again, but they're not exactly gonna lay down and die either. 

Coming Tonight: A minor league lifer, doesn't throw too hard, relies on trickery and pitch selection. Happens to come into a rotation spot with one of the best organizations in the bigs. Is now suddenly a decent name.