One 5 Year Plan After Another

 

From the moment the Nationals decided they were selling, they insisted that it was all going to be for the right reason. The rebuild would happen, the future would repopulate the team, and it'd all be worth it. Five years later, the Nats are still a fourth place team, the primary goal will be convincing their star shortstop to stick around, and they're likely still a couple more years away from really competing thanks to a gutted rotation and the worst bullpen in baseball. 

I think about the deal that brought Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to L.A. in 2021, and how it yielded a package of stars that was supposed to reinvigorate the system. And yes, it brought over Keibert Ruiz, who has been THE catcher ever since. This season he's finally providing decent hitting numbers again, batting .288 with 10 homers and 47 RBIs, not exactly his 2023-2024 production but definitely more on target. Ruiz is here til the end of the decade. But aside from Ruiz, that deal didn't really amount to much for Washington. Josiah Gray, the other big piece in that deal, had one all-star season as a Nats ace, then got hurt in early 2024, missed all of 2025, was supposed to start the season as a rotation piece and got hurt again, and just now made his debut as a long reliever. Gerardo Carillo also failed to meet expectations, and made his debut this year for Arizona. So yes, you get an everyday catcher with team longevity, but little else.

I think about some of those other deadline deals from 2021, and there's really not a ton that happened afterwards. The Yan Gomes/Josh Harrison A's deal got them, at most, Drew Millas, who's been a third string catcher for them. The Jon Lester deal got them Lane Thomas, which would later give them Jose Tena, who hasn't really performed for this team at all. The Kyle Schwarber deal got them nothing. The Brad Hand deal got them Riley Adams, another third string catcher. The Daniel Hudson deal got them Mason Thompson, who was counterproductive for them. The fact that a year after the trade deadline season that was supposed to bring the Nats back, they still needed the Soto deal to further replenish the pot...that says a lot. The goal was getting rid of people, not especially repopulating, which is why only Ruiz really, of that bunch, has had staying power. At least the Soto deal got them C.J. Abrams and James Wood, the peak of their core, as well as MacKenzie Gore, which got them Abimelec Ortiz, who's been really nice as a late call-up [plus 4 other guys that could be winners]. So the fact that this one 2022 deal was arguably so much more productive than like 8 2021 deals...it's telling. 

The current, burgeoning regime is the result of calculated development. Abrams, Wood, Daylen Lile, Nasim Nunez, Cade Cavalli, Andrew Alvarez and, ultimately, Keibert Ruiz have finally given this team an organizational identity after years of searching for one. Thus extending Cavalli is a fantastic idea, as after that injury-logged early era if he'd only gotten like 2 seasons to pitch for this team, it'd have been tragic. I also think Ortiz, Harry Ford and Yohandy Morales all have promise, and could all keep moving this already bombastic offense forward. I also think Jorbit Vivas is a really nifty in-between piece that could keep the team depth strong in the coming years. 

The Nats will hopefully be better next year, or at least be able to leg it out for longer. And then who knows what we'll be saying about their rebuilding period.

Coming Tomorrow- Talk about how a second half can radically change the perception of an entire season, even if it's played for a last place Royals team.

Lukes Like We Didn't Make It

 

Here's a fun statistic about the Blue Jays' 2026 season. In the trade for Kevin Gausman, the Jays received Brett Bateman, who moved right into center field, hit .333 in 34 games, with 11 RBIs, an .828 OPS, and 46 hits. He currently has a 1.7 WAR in that time. Meanwhile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who played 138 games this year and had a full year in the new contract to keep hitting in Toronto after the World Series run, is hitting .262 with 9 home runs, 56 RBIs and a .694 OPS. 

You should not be able to get a guy who's stuck in Iowa, put him on your team for 2 months and get him to start playing better than Vlad Jr. has all season. That's not the point of any of this. The point is the Vlad to drag the sled, not for Brett Bateman to go from Iowa to dragging the sled while Vlad just rides in it. That's not how you win championships. 

Despite that late rally and the continued gestation in the playoff picture, this was a big shrug of a follow-up from the 'team of uncommon men' in Toronto, mostly because most of the uncommon men didn't really show up. Addison Barger was hurt all year, Myles Straw backpedaled and is once again a subpar defensive sub, Davis Schneider's a .150 hitter, Tyler Heineman got dropped for a Buffalo catcher, Andres Gimenez bobbed around the replacement level, Ernie Clement stopped hitting after the ASG, and...I mean, Nathan Lukes is still hitting. He's 31 and down from the peak, but he's hitting .274 with 10 homers and 37 RBIs in 117 games. This is still a bench tier performance being made to start but he's doing a lot better than most of the actual Jays starters are. At the very least, this team has Kazuma Okamoto, hitting 33 homers and 88 RBIs and doing a great deal of the work for the lineup despite hitting .235, and this team has a second half Alejandro Kirk performance [.280, 10 homers, 41 RBIs and a .777 OPs in 72 games] that made the first half injury sort of worth it. But the depth and variety of 2025 was gone this year. No hiding that. Not with Josh Smith, not with Charles McAdoo, not with anything. 

I am intrigued how this team will rebound next year, because they will have Trey Yesavage healthy again, they'll have Jose Berrios healthy again, they'll have a healthy Spencer Arrighetti, they'll possibly have Bowden Francis back, they could theoretically stretch out Ricky Tiedemann, and of course they'll have Cease and Soriano. That's already firmer ground, and more depth, than the 'we're out of options but at least we have 41-year-old Max Scherzer every fifth day' thing from this year. If they can build a better lineup behind that, of people who actually rise to the occasion, they can avoid the anticlimax of this season. If not...Vlad signing back here might be one of the missed opportunities of this era of the game.

Coming Tonight: Five years ago, he came to Washington as they rebuilt. Now they're rebuilding again...and he's kinda still here.

Skeleton Crew

 

On March 25th of this year, in San Francisco, the San Francisco Giants hosted the New York Yankees to begin the regular season. It was a time of promise, though it was clear that the Giants probably weren't going to compete much this year, and the Yanks' battery of them would soon confirm this [a 7-0 win]. It's very weird to look back at this game because...only two of the Opening Day starting nine are still active on this team by the end of the season. 

It's literally just Logan Webb and Jung Hoo Lee. Everyone else is either playing elsewhere [Luis Arraez, Heliot Ramos, Patrick Bailey], or hurt [Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Casey Schmitt, Harrison Bader]. It's down to just Jung Hoo Lee in this lineup, and just Webb and Landon Roupp in this rotation. And everyone else is...either a roster-hanger-onner just taking advantage of the playing time or an absolute scrub filling a space. That's where we are with the Giants in September. They're not gonna finish with the worst record in baseball, but they may finish as the worst team left. Because what team has a chance with an active roster like this?

Above replacement level, all the team has left right now is Lee, the rookies Drew Gilbert and Bryce Eldridge, and newcomer Jonah Cox, a minor league favorite who was thrust into the centerfield role and has become an unsung hero, hitting .294 with 13 RBIs and 13 steals in 53 games. Cox is a sneaky little contact guy who just gets by you, and has been very helpful as the team's lost more and more strength. I think Cox probably will have a role in the team going forward, and a Gilbert-Cox-Lee outfield doesn't seem like the worst idea ever. 

It's the other fill-ins who are making things really dire, cause nothing else is too exciting. Drew Cavanaugh's the starting catcher, he's a .235 hitter with no real pop. Christian Koss is starting at first, he's not as good as he was last year. Turner Hill's been getting starts, he's got slightly more pop but he's not well rounded. Osleivis Basabe's getting playing time and for all the smoke around him in the minor's he's giving nothing. Nate Furman, Grant McCray and Scott Bandura are all getting shots. It really does feel like a triple-A lineup. I can't think of anybody in the league that could be outhit by this bunch. 

At least pitching-wise they've got Anthony Molina and Cesar Perdomo up and working. Molina's been surprisingly nice in a starting role, he's 3-1 with a 3.91 ERA with 23 Ks in 5 appearances. Perdomo had an excellent first start and has come down to earth a bit. Webb and Roupp have been kinda shaky lately [and Webb is officially hurt again], so it's nice that the kids are helping out. The bullpen isn't terrific though, as most of THEM are hurt too. So, again, it's whoever's available. And that's not very fun.

Really not much else for the Giants to do at this point but finish things up. I feel bad that the injuries screwed them up so much, because they could have bobbed along, but the bottom really fell out. Onto 2027. Hopefully.

Coming Tomorrow- One of many in 2025, one of a small few in 2026, keeping the dream alive in Toronto.

99 to Beat

 

Here's where we're at with the A's, which I wasn't thinking would be a factor this year. There's 9 games left. The A's have 92 losses. If they go 2-7, which is honestly a doable enough venture for this team, they can avoid finishing this season as a 100-loss team [in a season where the closest thing to a 100-win team we have now needs to go 5-4 to get to that mark]. The A's lost 100 games in 2022 and 2023, including that pathetic 2023 season where they only won 50 games. This season, they were without their biggest stars for the majority of the year, and as such they're in danger of being a 100-loss team. I think they have what it takes to avoid that, but...these being the 2026 A's, you can't be sure.

Earlier today, the A's got completely annihilated by the Rays in Tampa. You'd think this would be a decent homecoming for Jeffrey Springs, but the former Ray was completely beaten down, giving up 6 runs in 3.1 innings. Springs very clearly has never recovered from the injury wear and tear he's gained since his breakout run in Tampa, and, along with Luis Severino, continues to be a concerning free agency decision from this administration. The only run the A's could muster was a solo shot from Lawrence Butler, who again has caught steam late but not nearly as crucially as usual. Everything else was a ton of Rays runs that could not be contained.

Aside from Springs, the A's rotation right now is an array of 'I guess he'll do'. Jacob Lopez is the last actual competent starter standing, and even he's got a 5 ERA, despite 6 wins and 107 Ks. In the absence of J.T. Ginn, Gage Jump and Luis Severino, guys like Jack Perkins and Brady Basso are getting thrown out there to essentially do long relief to start games, and it isn't really working. The season's already a wash, so I get the reluctance to actually make a commanding decision, but even a couple years ago the A's had Joe Boyle and Joey Estes to try in September. Now, neither of them were long standing options, but they worked then. What the hell do the A's have now? Basically nothing. 

I guess the lineup is trying its best. It's down to bench guys like Donovan Walton and Alika Williams to do the hard work since Kurtz, Wilson, Soderstrom and Rooker are all hurt. Langeliers is back but his production pace has gone way down. Same with Gelof's, though at least this is a fuller, more confident season from the guy whose job was in jeopardy going into the season. Butler's last two months have at least given his stats a bit more mustard, he now has 17 homers and 59 RBIs, that's not bad. The general direction of this team as it stands might be best described as 'limp', but they keep trying.

To start next week, the Angels will be in town, so that'll be fun. Two teams trying to avoid losing 100 games squaring off in a minor league stadium. That should get a full house. It deserves one.

Coming Tomorrow- In a similarly vacant lineup, a rookie favorite tries to make the most of his extended playing time. 

Put the Tarps Back On

 

It's the sort of thing where you forget that at one point, the Cardinals were 10 games over .500, electric and commanding the fanbase. The 'tarps off' thing was this year. Tons of fans taking off their shirts in outfield seats and beckoning on walk-offs and rallies. That was this season. It feels like it was years ago, because the Cardinals haven't really been too electric in the second half. Maybe a decent week or two in late July and early August, but they evened out once it became clear how perfunctory the rotation was. 

Which is why it feels like such a shame that Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson, both of whom have 100+ RBIs, didn't lead this team further. Burleson's been good as a contact bat before, but this was a new high, with a .285 average, an .824 OPS, 23 homers and 111 RBIs, which still leads the league. Walker's home run totals fell a bit after the derby, but he still has 28, 100 RBIs and 160 hits. This was, at long last, a breakout season for Jordan Walker, after so many years where he could have done something and didn't seem to want to. And beyond that, it was the arrival of J.J. Wetherholt, who's excellent at 2nd and has a contact bat that's just picking up steam. I think that core gets them to the playoffs. 

And it shouldn't discount Nathan Church, who made the team as an also-ran and eventually usurped Victor Scott as the starting center fielder. Church is a great contact guy, he's got 50 RBIs and 10 homers, and he's handy in a pinch. Considering that the cavalcade of homegrown Cardinals outfielders has run its course [Nootbaar's done, Carlson and Bader and O'Neill and Edman are all elsewhere], Church is a nice trade-off, an unsung bench guy who can be the hero when he needs to be. Not sure what legs he has on this roster, or if he can do it again next year, but he did what he needed to this year and definitely has a place.

What excites me is the fact that the Cardinals now feel the need to move beyond this year's rotation mediocrity, where Michael McGreevy and Andre Pallante were really all they had. Quinn Matthews is up, and through 7 starts he has a 3.62 ERA, 26 Ks and a 0.7 WAR, which already puts him on the team leaderboard. Matthews is expected to be a nice rotation piece, and I like the sound of that. Both Brycen Mautz and Cooper Hjerpe are fundamentally starters, and are only working relief spots because there isn't room. I think there should be room. Those two have been excellent in minor league play and need to be stretched out. Similarly, despite the 37 saves, we might need to see if anyone other than Riley O'Brien can close games next year. The blows are adding up. 

The Cardinals are good enough, and have been good enough, that they're never really expected to land in last, and next year could be the year where their 'legit' stretch lasts more than a month or so. I just feel like once it gets going we're gonna forget this period where the Cardinals didn't really compete. I've been kind of enjoying this honestly, not to really bag on the team or anything. They made like 4 straight NLCSs and now it's just been nice not worrying about that all the time. But perhaps soon...

Coming Tonight: With all the injuries and struggles in the A's rotation, he's pretty much all they've got left right now.

Five Enter, One Remains

 

I really do think the Tigers' rotation press conference prior to the season has the same energy as Aaron Rodgers sprinting out carrying the American flag and immediately tearing his achilles. The moment looks grand, the image looks cinematic, and then the reality hits. Seeing Justin Verlander, Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize standing together, going 'we're gonna be the Tigers' rotation this year', looks nice, and sounds nice. But then the rubber hits the road and you realize just how far the image was from how things really work. 

Let's go over how that rotation panned out. Tarik Skubal had great numbers, was traded to the Dodgers and is looking to compete like he never has before. Casey Mize did well enough despite an injury, got traded to the Padres and is still trying to regain his leverage. Jack Flaherty's season stunk of fatigue, and he's missed time since July recovering. Justin Verlander pitched 1 inning, gave up 5 earned runs, complained of discomfort and has been hurt ever since. The goal is to get him back for one last start in Detroit, which is more of a tribute measure than anything given the season's lost at this point, but considering how he held up in San Francisco last year, everyone was expecting so much more.

So the only person left from that press conference in March who's still on this team is Framber Valdez. And he's decided to deliver his most mediocre season to date, after a legendary run with Houston. He's got a 4 ERA, a 10-10 record, 121 Ks and a 1.363 WHIP. Without the Astros' offense behind him, he has been leveled. He still goes deep into games but the runs have piled up, and the spark has been diluted. Every so often you will get a classic Valdez quality start, but this was not the ideal first year for this contract.

The good news is that a halfway decent starting rotation sprouted out from where the other four spots lay vacant. Keider Montero and Troy Melton have had star making performances this year, with 8 and 9 wins apiece, ERAs in the mid-3s and 2.50 range, and the dominance that, ideally, Skubal and Mize would have kept giving. Jackson Jobe's healthy again, and he's got a 3.89 ERA and 34 Ks in 34 innings. Hopefully he'll be a lot stronger next year. Drew Anderson has been starting recently, and he's honestly not bad, with a 2.36 ERA and 43 Ks in 10 starts. Maybe not as immediately lauded as other returns from the eastern hemisphere this year [mostly thinking of Anthony Kay and Foster Griffin], but he's played a strong role in this rotation legging things out.

Beyond that, the Tigers evened out as a lower-tier team this year without a comfy rotation behind them, and without a really strong division of contact hitters. You're at least seeing Kevin McGonigle, Dillon Dingler, Max Clark and Riley Greene cementing themselves for the next stage, and all four of those guys did what they needed to this year. If a decent enough team can form around them and lead to less dissonance, and less waiting for 5 different people to start hitting, then the Tigers can muddle out of the basement. If not...the 2024 run may have been a fluke after all.

Coming Tomorrow- An under-the-radar, contact-friendly outfielder on a team where two different guys have over 100 RBIs.

Marlin of Error

 

It's as simple as this: the Marlins, at one point, had a shot of crashing the postseason. Then they kept losing games and literally every other marginal competitor passed them. The Pirates and Cardinals probably aren't making the playoffs either, but they passed them. So now the Marlins are 8-5 in September, back below .500, nothing else to do this season really but be thankful they weren't a last place team. 

I can say with certainty that we know more about this team than we did before the season began. There were a lot of beginnings of threads last season that we weren't sure were gonna lead to anything in 2026, but Max Meyer, Javier Sanoja, Heriberto Hernandez, Tyler Phillips, Janson Junk and Jakob Marsee all have crucial roles on this team as it evolves. Sanoja was once just a decent enough super-ute who hit well only against the Phils. Now he's the everyday 3rd baseman, is a .300 hitter and has 63 RBIs, which isn't bad at all. Last year, Heriberto Hernandez was an okay hitter and a defensive liability, but now he's a much better power hitter, looking at the team's sole 25-homer year, and is better in left. Max Meyer, despite finishing with only half a season's worth of innings, proved he could carry the big games, and Sandy Alcantara proved he wasn't washed up. The biggest development was directing Tyler Phillips back towards a starting role, where he actually did a pretty decent job, with a 4.26 ERA, 5 wins and 63 Ks in 82 innings. I think he might be a good starting option going forward, as will Janson Junk, who had a 4.50 ERA in 111 innings. 

Now...will Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards continue to be the anchors? There I'm not sure. Lopez had an incredible season this year, with a 5.8 ERA, a league-leading 180 hits, a .300 average and 69 RBIs, plus 30 steals to boot. He excelled at nearly every facet of the game, and at 27 it could either be his apex season or the start of a strong run. I don't know if he's going to be THE guy for this team, but he's definitely helped exponentially, and some more seasons of this caliber would be the next step. Edwards is still a good piece but the fact that the Rays knew to give him up tells you he may never be THE guy. Maybe Marsee will do more heavy lifting next year, even if his second half was way better than his first. I think the real issue is whether or not Kyle Stowers is ever gonna touch his 2025 season [itself injury-shortened]. That's kind of why the Orioles gave up, they saw the floor and not the ceiling. I think if the Marlins are at all concerned they'll make a move this offseason but I think he's a bounce-back candidate, just like I think Owen Caissie just needs to grow into things.

The thing that will make me feel a lot better about the long term success of this team is proof of a working rotation model. Because ideally, if given the year, the combination of Eury Perez, Max Meyer, Ryan Gusto, Janson Junk and Tyler Phillips may not be enough to get things going. Alcantara's probably leaving in free agency, that's fine I guess. I'd love if there was another young starting option. It was supposed to be Robby Snelling, that did not pan out. There's gotta be somebody immediately next. Is it Karson Milbrandt after he figures out triple-A? Or Thomas White once he can stay healthy? One of those guys, or both, could swap in and help things greatly. Maybe a cheap free agent, someone who can eat innings? There's gotta be somebody. 

The Marlins are closer to competing than you might expect. They just need to build on this season and not run from what worked.

Coming Tonight: This was his first season for a team that didn't have a probable shot at the postseason. It wasn't that great.