Immediate Dividends

 

You know, I think a lot of people, at the end of the dealings the Brewers made pre-season, probably thought the biggest immediate piece they gained was somebody like Jett Williams or Brandon Sproat. But uh...looking like it's Kyle Harrison. Meaning the Giants saw what they had, relegated him to 5th starter, and traded him for Rafael Devers, and then the Red Sox barely used him and traded him for Caleb Durbin before anybody really realized what they had with this guy. 

And considering that he's in a pitching staff that includes Chad Patrick, dealt for both Jace Peterson and Abraham Toro before landing in Milwaukee, Quinn Priester, who was an afterthought in two different deals before landing in Milwaukee, and Coleman Crow, dealt for Eduardo Escobar and Adrian Houser in two different deals both teams currently regret, not even factoring Sproat in...it's very clear the Milwaukee Brewers know something that a lot of other teams don't. 

Think about it. Woodruff, Misiorowski and Henderson were drafted by them, the other guys were scouted and picked up for nothing. And they've all found success there. The rest of the team's full of that mentality. When they were dealt, nobody was thinking anything about Andrew Vaughn, Joey Ortiz, Brandon Lockridge and David Hamilton, and they've become vital pieces of this team. Lockridge is very much a 'use when Chourio is hurt' guy but he's not bad in his own right. Also, William Contreras is only on this team because the Braves wanted a catching upgrade and the A's wanted Manny Pina as a backup. So, you know, if you've lost hope in him, we'll take a chance. The gambles that most other teams take don't pay off as much as the Brewers' do because the Brewers just seem to have the right information most of the time. They do their homework, bet on the right horses and reap the benefits. 

So Kyle Harrison's very impressive debut is a shock to everyone...except the Brewers. 3-1 record, 35 Ks, 2.12 ERA...yeah, they knew. It's not a starring role exactly, as that would be the Miz's distinction, but it's arguably a better statistical start than the balls-to-the-wall flame throwing the Miz is doing. And if it's sustainable, and the Brewers can keep him around, that's a foundational guy. Funny how all these foundational guys keep showing up at the right time for this team. 

So even as this team is still technically a last place team, nobody's really referring to them as one because they're within reach of the nearest two teams and they're about to regain momentum due to the return of Jackson Chourio, already on fire. The Yankees series may make that a little difficult, but this is still a great team looking to surprise a lot of people.

Coming Tomorrow- For years he'd been the outer satellite of one of the most consistent rotations in the bigs. Now, when his team needs him the most, he's finally stepped up.

The Subtle Approach [As Usual]

1 game above .500. Hanging onto 1st place. Trying to contact their way out of a jam. Never a dull moment for these Guardians teams. 

It really is baffling, because this team has made some effort to not be just a young, speedy contact team. This year they got Rhys Hoskins. An actual power hitter who has hit tons of home runs. So far he's only hit 3, but he's a more drastic production idea than the usual approach for the Guardians, which is stacking 12 contact hitters together and hoping one of them gets to third in time. Right now the most important people on this team are guys like Daniel Schneemann, Angel Martinez and Brayan Rocchio, who aren't multi-tool superstars but are good enough to keep the team chugging along. Rocchio's back to his pesky 2024 self, playing great defense, stealing bases and smoking the occasional slap hit. Jose Ramirez currently leads the league in stolen bases and has only 6 home runs, which, while tied with Chase deLauter, is enough for the team lead. 

And it's working because there's a strong enough backbone behind it, and enough people doing their jobs efficiently to not ensure that they NEED a production monolith. Two of the top pitchers in baseball right now are on this team, Parker Messick and Gavin Williams. Williams is 5-2 and leads the league in K's with 60. The fans hoped he'd be this good as he came up, and he sure is. Messick has a 2.40 ERA and a .919 WHIP just by keeping the ball down and away from people. Even Joey Cantillo's no slouch either, he's 2-1 with 37 Ks. That and the bullpen have kept things very steady.

Where I worry is the continued promise of big prospects that go nowhere. Chase de Lauter is working, but he seems to be an anomaly. Kyle Manzardo is hitting .200 right now, with 36 Ks to his 20 hits. Juan Brito did not work in the bigs, and C.J. Kayfus had to go back down as well. Bo Naylor is still looking for that consistent season but can't reach .200. Even Travis Bazzana, an organizational sure thing, is only hitting .174 through his first 7 games. The big rush hasn't hit yet. Maybe it all will soon, but it's somewhat worrying. 

Still, it's a good time to at least have the fundamentals working, because it's enough to keep them ahead of Detroit. I think they're still a favorite for the division, though the Tigers could click once the injuries wear off. The Guardians are really one or two dimensions away from really taking off, and it's within reach.

Coming Tonight: As a return for Rafael Devers, he was seen as a failure. As a return for Caleb Durbin...he's fared much better. 

Complaining Works...Sort Of

 

'Fire the manager' syndrome is such a strange derangement. Because it leads you to believe that the actions of players, executives, opposing schedules and coaches can be excused if the manager gets canned. Forget that he got a team to a World Series, forget the years of equity, no, somebody's gotta pay, and it's that guy, and the turnaround will confirm it was his fault. It's never that simple, regardless of what any Philly sports fan would have you believe.

But so far, two teams have fired their managers, and both have seen some improvement. In one case it's a little more prominent. 

Let's start with the more basic case. The Red Sox. Going into this year it was a possibility that they'd suck, and even if they put money into the team, that wouldn't take away the fact that so many strong pieces have actively left. Alex Bregman did not want to come back, despite the wonderful year he had. Rafael Devers left as soon as he could. Nick Pivetta signed with a west coast team that was arguably headed in a similar direction. That anybody actually wanted to come back, regardless of whether or not it was someone who a lot of teams actively avoided signing [Aroldis Chapman], is surprising. But they built a strong enough team for 2026, and for a while it truly did not work. So out went Alex Cora, and the majority of the coaching staff, and in went Chad Tracy.

The Sox were 10-17 before the firing. They're 6-4 since. Not earth-shattering, not season-saving, but you can see things turning around.

Mainly, a lot of the pieces have evened out after some rough starts. Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray struggled in early Boston starts, they've rebounded in recent weeks. Suarez now has a 2.77 ERA, and since Crochet landed on the IL has been the closest thing this team has to an ace. Caleb Durbin has also improved a bit since his dismal start, and you can slowly see Jarren Duran and Marcelo Mayer begin to pick things up. The main assets are still veteran guys like Willson Contreras and Trevor Story, which is somewhat concerning. I think Roman Anthony is on his way, but it feels like every time he's about to get going he gets hurt, much like a different New York outfielder.

At the very least, 38-year-old Aroldis Chapman is still a very sure bet in the ninth. I think Chapman wants to retire as a Red Sock, and is fully embracing his villain arc after reaching glory in New York. Good for him. He's still got that unsavory subtext to him, but damn if he's not a scary closing gun still. In 12 appearances he has 7 saves, 14 Ks and a 0.77 ERA. That's vintage Chapman. He doesn't have a particularly great bullpen behind him this year but he's giving his all.

It's still not entirely pretty, but you can see more life in the Sox than there was before, and that's a start I guess. I don't know if it means they're a challenger in this division this year, but who knows.

Now, as for the other team that fired their manager...

Gotta be honest...I didn't think firing Rob Thomson was the answer. He was a steady captain the last few years, got the team to a World Series, wasn't flashy or particular. There's a case to be made about whether or not his managerial style actually had an impact on the team or if he was a George Seifert type who inherited greatness and did what he could to contain it. But I didn't know about firing Thomson in April before things really got going. But, that's what the Phillies did. First Taijuan Walker went, then Thomson followed, and then Don Mattingly took the helm. 

And of course, since Mattingly took over, the Phils have been 8-1. Probably 8-2 by the end of the night, the A's have been hammering the hell out of them [as they tend to at times], but still. Something's clearly different. Bryce Harper's hitting again. Jesus Luzardo's found his control. The bullpen's turned into an impressive ragtag unit of guys that haven't pissed me off yet. Somehow Brandon Marsh is off to the best start of any hitter, hitting .336 with 4 homers and 19 RBIs. The big man has always been a lower tier Phillies weapon, and seeing him finally step up again is a very good thing. Would love to see something similar from Bryson Stott as well.

I think it's also helped that we've gotten Zack Wheeler and J.T. Realmuto back after some injuries, and they're still in pretty good shape. Wheeler's got a 3.12 ERA and 18 Ks in 3 starts, he's definitely his old self. J.T.'s hitting .265 and is still a great catcher. I dunno if he was worth everything we signed him for but he's better than Rafael Marchan, that's for sure. There's still some weak spots in the lineup, and there's still some guys that should be playing better right now [Bohm mostly], but this is an improved version of the team I saw last month right at the beginning of the losing streak. And if people are crediting Mattingly rather than just...the momentum swing that this team usually deals with, then whatever.

I think the Phillies have a better shot going forward than the Red Sox solely because the Phillies are built better right now, though admittedly both teams have an issue with young players not performing as well as intended. Still, we've got 5 months left and a lot of twists and turns, so both teams could be in opposite places weeks from now.

Coming Tomorrow- Infield specialist and occasional impressive bat for the team that is currently leading the AL Central. 

Building a Better Rockies Team, the Unhinged Way

 

Hey fun fact, the Colorado Rockies currently have four players with a WAR higher than 1. The first place Cleveland Guardians have the same amount. The second place Tampa Bay Rays, an actual good team, have only two. But the Colorado Rockies, the punchline of the bigs last year, have four players worth at least a win by themselves. Tomoyuki Sugano, Mickey Moniak, Antonio Senzatela....and Chase Dollander. And a year ago, maybe one of them would make sense.

Dollander has been one of the Rockies' top pitching prospects, he was their 2023 first round pick, Baseball America ranked him the #8 prospect in baseball prior to the 2025 season, and he progressed through the minors in essentially a year and a half. Forgetting for a moment...how crappy his 2025 major league stats were...Dollander still had a high ceiling of potential, and he still felt like an organizational gem. Therefore, him eventually getting his act together and leading the charge? Very likely outcome. Heading into this year it was a large possibility. So far in 8 appearances he's got a 3.38 ERA, 42 Ks and 37.1 innings, all better than any starter.

Which is to say...the Rockies have not been starting him.

So what they've been doing...is using Jimmy Herget or Brennan Bernardino as an opener, giving them an inning, and then letting Dollander go long and essentially carry out a start. I assume this is to ensure he doesn't get chased in the first, and if you give the heart of the order to a specialist then start Dollander off with mid-order guys, that's at least a better way of breaking him in. It's a little psychological, a little strategic. Unlike the 2018 Kevin Cash stuff, by all accounts the Rox COULD start Dollander if they wanted to, but right now they're choosing to do this. And it's working.

So...that's the *reasonable* WAR leader. Now the other three...

Moniak becoming a hit in Colorado isn't surprising. What's surprising is the Angels cut this man to make room for Tim Anderson, and he ends up finding his swing and becoming a hero for a Rockies team that needs a hard-hitting outfield bat. Obviously Moniak isn't the guy the Phillies were looking for at the draft, but he's definitely got his uses. Right now he's got 11 homers and 21 RBIs. Jordan Beck and Brenton Doyle don't have that much combined. Moniak currently leads the NL in OPS with 1.123. Coors Field, man...

Then you have the return of Antonio Senzatela, who's gotten his ERA down to 1.21, and he has done this...by becoming a long relief guy who goes 2 or 3 innings an appearance. Somehow this has worked, and the awfulness of his 2025 has not appeared yet. Perhaps because he's finally recovered from his injuries, or maybe it's the same psychological thing that Dollander worked through? Who knows. And then Tomoyuki Sugano, another guy that shouldn't have been cut, has taken his low-velocity/all-craftsmanship stuff to Denver, and it's working! He's got a 3.41 ERA through 7 starts. As Michael Lorenzen can tell you, you could do a lot worse in Coors Field. 

Is it weird to me that they're lifting the team past the levels of true awfulness? Or is it just weird that it's them and not Tovar, Goodman, Doyle and Beck as much? Little of both. Eventually a consistent young core is gonna form, and clearly it's not this year, but I'll take goofy stuff like this. It's more entertaining than the alternative.

Coming Tonight: A guy whose Hall of Fame case will eventually need to be discussed, which will really puzzle a lot of people I think. 

Trout of Nowhere

 

Only one time during the 2020s thus far have we seen a season from Mike Trout that's in any way comparable to his peak years in the 2010s. In 2022, despite only playing 119 games, Trout hit 40 home runs with a 0.999 OPS. It'd have been a big deal had Ohtani and Judge not been having MVP caliber years themselves. And then Trout kept missing swaths of seasons, then would show up for a month then miss the rest of the year. Last season he was relatively healthy but not 100%, and more strikeout-prone than ever without payoff. And so, of course, you worry the legendary run is over, that there's no real highlights left.

And then...suddenly...it's like he never left. 2026 so far has been peak Mike Trout, and while it felt like a mirage at first, it could not be more welcome. In 36 2026 games, Trout is hitting .262 with 11 home runs, 22 RBIs, a 1.000 OPS and 36 walks. This is Mike Trout. The Trout long balls mean something again, and have heft that they haven't had the last few years. He's as mobile as he used to be, as scary at the plate as he used to be, and...as solely responsible for the rise and fall of the team as he used to be. 

Because let's not kid ourselves...aside from Trout and Jose Soriano, the Angels don't really have much right now. I think Trout's used to it, though. So many Angels teams really just had Trout, and this is just another one. They're in last place right now and they're still trying to find an identity, which has been made even more difficult considering Trout is essentially dragging the team back to 2015 in a sense. This still isn't Zach Neto's team, or Jo Adell's team. No, this is Mike Trout's Angels, and that will continue to be the case for a little while. It was nice to see Neto wake up at the plate, though. He credits his last homer to a Pokemon pack break. Wait til he finds out they make some of those with other baseball players on 'em..

Yet, for the first time in a while, this season also has the suspense of 'is someone gonna try and trade for Trout at some point?' Every so often it happens, and while usually there's the default of Trout saying he'll be an Angel for life, this is a pretty dire point for the Angels. He's got 4 more years left on the contract, he can still play at the elite level, and...it may happen. As usual, signs point to the Phillies above all else, as he's from South Jersey, full Phils country, and back in the day Bryce Harper did a full recruiting mission. The most cynical of Phils fan would tell you we don't need another 30+ year old, and that would justify not wanting one of the best players in the game for them. Mostly I'd prefer this to the Dodgers getting another MVP. But that's if it happens, and I'm still not sure that it will. 

For now, I'm just enjoying seeing Mike Trout rake again. I know he did a bunch against the Yankees but I can't even be too mad about that. He's a future HOFer, a great baseball star, and I'm glad he hasn't completely faded off after 2019. 

Coming Tomorrow- What's this? An actual strong pitching performance in Coors Field??

Get the Balance Right

 

Miraculously, well into their rebuilding period, the Cardinals have managed a 2nd place team and a working, relatively stable lineup schematic with proven young stars and a plan for upward momentum. Just...don't look at the pitching.

It's wild that so many pieces of this team have come together to work now, rather than at any point before. Having Jordan Walker, J.J. Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera all hitting, and all hitting well, gives this team so much more to say than the last few years of transitional shrugging. Before, getting Burleson or Gorman or Carlson to do anything was asking for a lot. And now this lineup actually feels intimidating. Wetherholt's a genuinely great MLB infield option, with 7 homers and 18 RBIs in his rookie season. Burleson's putting together a strong campaign himself, hitting .269 with 28 RBIs already. Jordan Walker's already hit 10 homers and finally figured out how to fix his swing. The offensive production that was tricky before is coming so much more naturally now because this team is younger and has more urgency. Getting Arenado out of there was honestly the best plan.

But...that doesn't really carry over to the rotation, because getting rid of Sonny Gray, Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas just makes this an anonymous, unreliable group of misfits. At least the Nationals have some young guys they can rely on. What do the Cards have?? Michael McGreevy's got a 2.52 ERA but he's mostly a ground ball pitcher. Same with Andre Pallante. Matthew Liberatore was supposed to be the ace but he's got a 4.50 ERA. The idea is to keep runs down but the Cards are honestly a team just barely outscoring their opponents because the starting squad just isn't much at all. Having a good bullpen helps a little, as O'Brien, Romero and Graceffo have been good, but so many of the guys that were so reliable last year [Kyle Leahy and Matt Svanson mostly] are seriously burned out. So it just seems imbalanced, impractical and unsustainable.

The real question is whether the hitting is good enough, and the depth is strong enough, to build off this. Cause if not, there's a possibility Burleson could be dealt midyear, pushing the rebuild back a tad. The fact that they're enough of a force to be on the brink of competition is scary, especially for NL Central competitors, but the next few weeks will probably show how real they are. Especially as the Brewers and Reds balance themselves out a bit more.

Still...if this team can compete without pitching, it'd be pretty insane. Like I can't even remember the last time the Cardinals didn't have any pitching. The 90s I guess..

Coming Tonight: Oh you know...that guy everyone really likes. Guess he's not past his prime after all.

The Slow Climb Back

 

Even as every team goes through a rough period, the AL Central is beginning to finally right itself. The Twins are in last, the Royals have had a good week and are looking to lap the White Sox. Things are finally straightening out. That doesn't mean the Royals have no cause for alarm after the dismal first month of the season, but...it means things aren't as dire as they looked.

What's helped most recently is the fact that Jac Caglianone can finally hit at the MLB level. He's got a .788 OPS, 4 homers, a heroic moment or two under his belt. He's not looking as lost as he did last year. Same with Carter Jensen, who's actually leading the team in homers with 6. It's a nice spike until you realize that they're really the only first or second year guys actually doing well right now. Noah Cameron's fallen off since his strong 2025, Isaac Collins isn't hitting, Luinder Avila isn't MLB ready yet. The whole point around building a team around Witt and Garcia is for the pieces to fall into place around them, and barring those two lineup pieces it hasn't quite happened. Lugo, Wacha and Bubic are off to great starts, but that's not really foundational.

The antithesis to that statement is that if you don't have to worry about your top 3 guys, that's not a drawback. Michael Wacha is 34, he's been in the league for fourteen years now [!!!!!], and he's somehow gotten better with age. What's great about Wacha is even if he wasn't giving pristine starts, he was still there for the majority of the season and gave you your money's worth innings-wise. Since signing with KC, he's made nearly all his starts, averaged 168 innings and a 3.50 ERA, and kept the ship steady whenever needed. Right now he's got a 3.05 ERA, a 3-2 record and 36 Ks for the Royals. He's not meant to be the ace, but he's meant to be a strong middle option, and that's exactly what he's been. Same with Seth Lugo, who isn't at full 2024 power but still has a 2.68 ERA through 7 starts. Bringing in Stephen Kolek to potentially liven up the rotation is a very good idea as well.

I'm just not seeing the full depth that scared the Yankees a few years ago. Beyond Witt, Garcia, Cags and Pasquatch, what really is there to this team? The back half hasn't woken up yet. Massey, Thomas and Collins haven't proven their worth. Perez is resting on mythology. India's done for the year. I know a lot can develop, and the Royals are hoping it can, but as is I really don't see the story. Luckily, I can't really see much of a story with the rest of the division either.

Coming Tomorrow- The Cardinals have a lot of guys who were supposed to be THE guy on their team right now. Matthew Liberatore, Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Dustin May. Here's the latest and greatest. He's doing alright so far.