Can't Get There From Here

 

The Royals and the Reds are two teams that people thought would be doing a lot better by now than they actually are. They're in danger of selling. It is possible they can still deliver...but how?

The Reds made the playoffs last year, and got to play the Dodgers. That was their first problem. Their second was the continued revolving door of young, hard-throwing pitchers, which is once again causing them trouble this season. They just got Hunter Greene back, and he's slowly getting back to his old self, but they just lost Nick Lodolo, they're without Brandon Williamson again, and Rhett Lowder, while healthy, just doesn't have it right now. They have Andrew Abbott, Chase Burns and Greene all working...but the way this team works, the second something starts working or an element is added, something else will fall off. Eventually Lodolo will come back, it's a blister issue, but can they hold onto that before something else goes wrong?

The lineup is a different issue entirely. They have everybody in one place but most of them aren't doing anything. Eugenio Suarez was brought here to hit homers like he did last year, and he's hit only 11 thanks to injuries and general inefficiency. Stephenson, McLain, Friedl and Marte are all bowling gutter balls. McLain still struggling to meet .200 after everything he was supposed to do feels insulting. It's really down to Sal Stewart, Elly de la Cruz and J.J. Bleday to do all the work, with occasional assistance by Spencer Steer, who at least has 14 homers and 35 RBIs, and Nathaniel Lowe, who's also still an RBI machine. But it's a limp lineup with next to nothing to say, and when even the Pirates and Cardinals have more to offer, you're sort of stuck.

The thing about the Reds is I don't think they can sell too much because they're still in the rebuilding phase, but who knows if someone who's been there all decade, like Stephenson or Antone, will get dealt.

The Royals are a bit more open about what they're gonna be doing. The contracts are gonna go. Wacha's probably leaving, Lugo's probably leaving, maybe a few others. It's not the kind of thing where the big stars like Witt, Caglianone or Garcia are in danger, but there's a way for this team to still compete in the future without sinking under their own ambition.

And you can still see the Royals clinging to 2024 with this roster. Michael Massey's still out there trying to play everyday, and while he's better at it than he was he hasn't really gotten anywhere. Vinnie Pasquantino still isn't the guy he was supposed to be, and this year he's been very quiet, with 6 homers and 32 RBIs. Bubic and Ragans are working solutions but they haven't been sustainable this year, much like Carlos Estevez, Kyle Isbel and Jonathan India. You're seeing things evolve slightly, like Isaac Collins's decent work as an OF bat, Tyler Tolbert and his consecutive hits, and especially Carter Jensen getting reps behind the plate. Right now he's got 13 homers and 49 RBIs, which is a bit more on-target than the other Royals catcher at the moment, sad to say. Jensen's 22, he's a great hitting catcher, and he's got a future there. That's a start. Same with Caglianone and Witt, it's good that they're succeeding here. But there's just so much that hasn't held up, and the team can't really compete.

Even in a division where most teams are under .500, and a lot of the pack is just as disappointing, the Royals can't match up. They don't really have that x-factor right now, even WITH Caglianone and Witt. Even if they probably have more going for them than the Reds, they're further from competing at the moment. Hopefully both teams get to where they were supposed to eventually, but as it stands now...already looking like a long second half.

Coming Tonight: A rookie pitcher for the Angels who's taken advantage of the ample playing time. 

A Tough Half to Follow

 

Luis Garcia, I was assuming, was meant to be anticlimax.

The Nationals have a habit of putting their hopes on anticlimax players, and they've been doing it a lot since 2018. Even when Juan Soto was heating up the league, the Nats were going 'naw, Victor Robles is gonna be the guy'. That persisted for far too long. Then it happened with Carter Kieboom for far too long. You can argue it's happened with Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz, two prized prospects that have taken forever to actually blossom. Ruiz is doing better this year, but is Gray cooked? He might be. And the Nats just refuse to give up on these guys, even far beyond the expected timeline for a great player to take off. You still see Mitchell Parker kicking around in there, they haven't learned.

So Luis Garcia Jr., who's been in the leagues since 2020 and has delivered subpar defense and no offense since then, has now decided he's one of the best power hitters in Washington. Now. Six years in, at 26, right when everyone was about to give up on him. Is this....a payoff??? 

Here is what Luis Garcia Jr. has accomplished so far this year. A .284 average, 20 home runs, 68 RBIs, an .871 OPS. Now, Garcia's year-high for homers before this year was 18, for a full season. And to be clear...Luis Garcia has PLAYED...SEVERAL FULL SEASONS. The problem isn't that he's not there, the problem is that he's there and he's not doing anything. But now he can really hit. Those long-balls were all coming in succession the last month or so, and now he's genuinely a fearsome power hitter. Luis Garcia. And it's not even because this lineup can't hit for power, it absolutely can. I don't know if you all noticed, but the cleanup hitter in the All Star Game was a National. HE WAS THE SHORTSTOP. C.J. Abrams has 20 homers this year. Curtis Mead has 17 homers this year. And James Wood obviously can hit for power, he has 28 homers. So it's not like Garcia became a power hitter because nobody else would, he's become a home run guy IN ADDITION. That makes this team so much scarier, even if, logically, nothing else is gonna happen this year. 

It's just a matter if this is gonna become a regular occurrence for Garcia, because that would be nice. This Nats team is slowly coming together, with Mead and Nasim Nunez earning everyday roles, Daylen Lile showing definite staying power, Dylan Crews preparing to re-ascend to where many thought he'd end up [maybe HE'S the anticlimax], and Foster Griffin looking like a working anchor for the rotation. I think more pitching developments need to come together before I can take this team seriously, but as a sneaky spoiler with insane power ability, the Nats have been very surprising and very comforting. 

And if Luis Garcia's finally found his niche on this team, that makes it all worthwhile.

Coming Tomorrow [?]: Finally, the guy who might be the catcher for the next generation of Royals teams. Not a bad hitter either. 

Your 2026 MLB All Star Starting Lineups

 It's been kinda wild having the circus in town this week for ASG festivities. I haven't really had time to go to anything in Philly, I just started a new job and that's been taking up most of my time. But I've had colleagues going to ASG village, meeting some former players, going to the Home Run Derby and the Futures Game. And it's honestly really cool. Whenever Philly gets to host anything, it's always a lot of fun, and the city's usually its best self. I think we could have done without the booing yesterday at all HRD participants that weren't Phillies, but that is this city.

So tonight we've got an All-Star Game to play, and luckily it's one where the Phils are relatively well-represented. We've got three starters tonight, and three more that could appear as reserves. Keep in mind, the last time we hosted the ASG, all we really had to show for it was Ricky Bottalico. Which...I mean, cool player, had some nice seasons, I have his autograph, but the Phils were about to have Scott Rolen, Jimmy Rollins, Bobby Abreu and later Howard, Utley and Hamels, and this is the moment in history that belongs to the Phils? I like this moment a little better honestly. 

So now, as usual, I will ready the starting lineups, complete with newly-made all-star customs for the proceedings. As it's Philly, I will try and predict the crowd's favorability to any and all elements. You'll have to imagine, as I will, legendary Philly PA announcer Dan Baker announcing these names. There are some names I wish the rest of the world would get to hear him say, such as  'J.....T......REALMUTO'. But a 'JHOAN.....DURAN' may have to suffice.

So here we go, YOUR ALL-STAR STARTING LINEUPS.

First, representing the AMERICAN LE-

[five minutes of boos]

....AGUE. 

Leading off for the AL, starting in center field, from the Los Angeles Angels....MIKE TROUT

[and to be clear, him they applaud. He's from Millville, he's a local boy. Every year there's a rumor he's coming to Philly. We love him.

Batting second, the designated hitter, from the HOU-

[Five more minutes of boos]

From the Houston Astros...YORDAN ALVAREZ.

Batting third, and starting behind the plate, from the Oakland Athletics...[Dan Baker squints slightly] SHEA LANGELIERS.

Batting cleanup, the third baseman, from the Tampa Bay Rays

[scattered boos]

JUNIOR....CAMINERO.

Fifth in the lineup tonight, and starting the game at shortstop, from the Kansas City Royals...BOBBY WITT JR.

Batting sixth, and in right field tonight, from the New York Yankees....CODY BELLINGER.

[Cody emerges from the CBP dugout in a cloud of smoke, causing a still-in-New-York Jazz Chisholm to wonder how the hell Bellinger gets away with this]

Seventh tonight, the AL first baseman, from the New York Yankees....BEN RICE

[scattered boos from all the amish people who heard Nick Kurtz would be starting but hadn't seen the later updates that he dropped out]

Batting eighth, the left fielder, from the Detroit Tigers...RILEY GREENE

And batting ninth for the American League, starting at second base, from the Toronto Blue Jays...ERNIE CLEMENT.

[all of the hardcore Toronto fans who gamed the fan-vote so that all their favorites got in the final 2 but only the top overall vote getter actually made the team and he's batting ninth of nine stand and applaud]

[one Philly fan throws an empty Surfside can at them]

AND TONIGHT'S STARTING PITCHER

[the Toronto fans find that Philly fan and laugh at him]

FROM THE TORONTO BLUE JAYS.......DYLAN CEASE.

[more effusive applause from the Toronto fan base, despite the fact that had Cam Schlittler not decided to sit the whole thing out their boy would be coming in for the third and getting hammered by Kyle Schwarber]

And now....the starters for the NATIONAL LEAGUE....ALL-STAR TEAM.

[an attendant has to come behind Dan Baker to ensure he doesn't fall over in abject enthusiasm]

LEADING OFF.....THE DESIGNATED HITTER...FROM YOUR........PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

[applause for 10 minutes]

KYLE.......SCHWARBER.

[applause for another two hours]

Batting second...and playing left field...from the N-

[LOUD BOOS]

....EW YORK METS.

[LOUDER BOOS]

......JUAN.....SOTO.

In the third position tonight, and starting the game at first base...from the Los Angeles Dodgers...FREDDIE FREEMAN.

And in the cleanup spot for the NL, starting at shortstop...from the Washington Nationals...C....J....ABRAMS.

[Baker goes to his attendant 'no, you're right, it doesn't have the same ring to it']

Fifth in the order for the NL, and playing third base, from the Los Angeles Dodgers...MAX MUNCY.

[Muncy takes off his glasses to address the crowd and trips over a photographer]

Batting sixth, and starting the game at second base, from the Atlanta Braves....OZZIE ALBIES.

Batting seventh, and starting the game in right field, from YOUR.....PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES...

[more applause]

BRANDON....MARSH.

[The camera cuts to a row of five fifty-year-old moms wearing large Marsh beards, and cuts away at the exact correct moment]

Eighth in the lineup, and playing centerfield tonight, from the Los Angeles Dodgers....ANDY PAGES.

And batting ninth for the National League, and starting the game behind the plate...from the Atlanta Braves....DRAKE...

[the Toronto fans begin to stand again]

...BALDWIN.

And warming up in the bullpen, tonight's starting pitcher, from YOUR.....PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES.

[more very loud cheers]

CRISTOPHER........SANCHEZ.

[Dan Baker is finally able to fall back, where three batboys break his fall]

Well, if the game's anywhere near as lively as that might entail, we're in for a fun one. 

Figure it Out While You Still Can

 

Last year, it genuinely was as simple as 'the Orioles lacked drive to sign good free agents and the whole rotation got hurt', and that's why they were disappointing. So this year, they brought on Shane Baz, Pete Alonso, Blaze Alexander and Taylor Ward, some genuinely great additions, and have gotten strong full-to-majority season campaigns from four starters. And yet they're still in last. I don't even know, man. You set the deck for this team and they still manage to leave the table before anybody else.

I think the most disheartening part about this Orioles team is just how okay they are. You have five or six guys who you KNOW can deliver excellent work, and they're all kinda doing their thing without really providing a new benchmark. You have Pete Alonso, and he's been himself, he's got 21 home runs and 64 RBIs, leads the team in .OPS. It's very par for the course at this point. Obviously he's doing great, the fans love him, but you know he's done better. Adley Rutschman made an All-Star team, and confusingly was the only Oriole to do so, but we've seen better from him, cause 2024 happened. Gunnar Henderson has 17 homers and 42 RBIs but is only hitting .219. Even last season he was a saving grace, and he's just not wowing people this year. Even Taylor Ward has cooled down to a .256 average with only 6 homers and 25 RBIs. Things have just gotten really quiet, and for a team with this much power, it's maddening. Last night Samuel Basallo had a very well timed home run, and he's still having a strong enough rookie year, but that doesn't happen often enough. You're also wasting roster spots on three prized prospects [Holliday, Mayo and Beavers] who just aren't doing a thing in the majors right now. Mayo at the very least can hit home runs but he's losing playing time to Blaze Alexander. 

And it sucks that the lineup lacks a real identity, because this team could go deep just with Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Brandon Young and Shane Baz. Baz has struggled this year but he's had some real gems, and K'd 9 against Kansas City today. Rogers is also looking a ton better after his requisite flameout moment, and he's only given up 2 runs in his last 4 starts. Young, after a rough 2025 despite flashes of greatness, seems to finally have his priorities in order, and is a great looking starter at last, with a 7-2 record and a 3.42 ERA. And Bradish, while not 2023 good [jeez that really was THAT long ago..], has a 3.61 ERA and 106 Ks. Very much a 'don't wanna overexert myself' season but I'm glad he's healthy and heading up the rotation again. Meanwhile has anybody heard anything from John Means? Is he still alive?

The O's have so many pieces that make me think they could have legs, like Alexander, Rico Garcia, the long relief skills of Tyler Wells, Colton Cowser. This team just needs to click fully, and this weekend against the Royals they cemented something, as they've won 4 straight and are 7-3 in July. They could be gearing up to shock some people. Or, y'know...they'll do their usual thing and not really follow up on the vibes.

They Threw a Party, Nobody Came

 

So, to recap, the week leading up to the All-Star Game has included the best player in the league getting a minor injury and choosing to sit out the game, another guy who rightfully was nominated to start at 1st base getting hurt and needing to miss the game, the guy who'd be the only representative from the Pittsburgh Pirates leaving with a high pitch count and needing to miss the game, and a guy who should have been nominated from the start turning down a nomination after he already knew he wouldn't get to play in it anyway. Also, for some reason, every time someone from the AL withdraws from the game, 2 more Red Sox sprout in their place. 

As mad as I am about Wheeler missing the game, Logan Webb, who also missed time and still makes the game, is a solid enough choice, solely because I don't think anyone else has summed up the possibilities of 2020s pitching consistency like Webb has. There are so many contemporaries that could be consistent standouts like Webb if they were built well enough to withstand the wear and tear. Justin Steele, Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber. Yet Webb is there every year, and has only had the occasional injury issue or the occasional down month. Though this will likely be the first year since 2011 where Webb doesn't make all his starts, he's still got a 3.86 ERA, a 1.156 WHIP and 80 Ks in 100 innings, a good line to put with a career of them. Webb passed the 1000 strikeout mark to begin the season, has a 3.42 career ERA, and will be making his third consecutive all-star game. I think we should just keep rewarding him for as long as he lasts, because somebody being that good and that sturdy for that long is rare nowadays. 20 years ago it'd be a Mark Buehrle type where he sort of ends up underrated, and I think that's still the case now with Webb, but Webb's more valuable now arguably. Everyone else on the Giants, either you hope he stays healthy [Ray, Mahle] or you hope he stays good [Roupp, McDonald]. 

The Giants being represented solely by Logan Webb and Luis Arraez might be a little mean. I would have put Matt Chapman in there, he's still one of the best third basemen in the bigs. Casey Schmitt could have also gotten a look, he's having a terrific year with 18 homers and a .281 average. But yeah, I see why Devers isn't there, he's still got some serious flaws as an all-round hitter, and I see why Jung Hoo Lee isn't there, he's good for singles but not as much for doubles, and I get that the Bryce Eldridge month has worn off. There's a lot of pop to this Giants team when things are going well, and Adames and Ramos, when hot, are very valuable. But it's tough getting everybody on the same page. It's also been a chore watching Drew Gilbert develop, he's simply not there yet, even three organizations in. 

It is possible the Giants will be selling in a couple weeks. I'm not sure what's really there to part with, maybe Ray or Arraez? Maybe Ryan Walker? They've got places to go but because so many guys are there for a while I'm not sure if it'll be anybody too big. Still, if they can get everybody in tune with each other, they could be closer than people think.

Coming Tomorrow- I'm not sure if it's time yet to talk about whether this guy's fully lived up to his rookie season but the longballs sure help me forget that.

Swallow This

 

How would you like this to be you. You toil in the majors for too long, struggle with injuries, make it over to a struggling Japanese league team, then do well enough to get an MLB contract with a decent team. Then the best player on your Japanese team comes over here to play for a last place team and then makes them a competitor, all while you're down in 4th. Peter Lambert must be going through it.

And it's not even like the 2025 Yakult Swallows were a bastion of baseball excellence or anything. The whole idea of Munetaka Murakami is a great player can make a bad team watchable, even if he doesn't always make them *good*. Aside from Lambert and Murakami, this team had some okay performances, and Domingo Santana trying his best, but like usual, they didn't compete. So to have them both over here and going in opposite directions is funny, especially considering that for a while they really weren't. The Sox didn't really conquer the AL Central until Murakami got hurt, before then he very much was lifting them. Currently Lambert is very much lifting the Astros, is their wins leader and ranks 4th in WAR. Very much the opposite of what both were after, and I guess one of them is relieved. 

Peter Lambert had instances of greatness with the Rockies, and definitely tried to make the most of pitching in Coors Field, but it just wasn't happening, and he never really broke through after his 2019 rookie season. So Japan happens, he does decently, and now he gets to play for the Astros. Lambert, in 14 games, currently has a 3.26 ERA, a 7-5 record, 74 Ks and a 1.150 WHIP, a very solid line. He is also...the best pitcher on this team right now. I remember when they brought him up I was really hesitant to embrace him, because I thought it was the Jason Alexander thing of 'we're bringing up a minor league also-ran cause he's all we have, now suddenly he's great'. That's always a 'oh screw you, Astros' thing for me, like if you can fix Peter Lambert then something's up. But no, he fixed himself in Japan, then came over here and ran the rotation. That's better honestly. 

The thing is...I don't think the intention was for all of this to be on Lambert. Hunter Brown is back now, he's carrying a little more, still pitching well, but Imai, Burrows, McCullers and Javier have all been disasters this year, and Spencer Arrighetti's beginning to fall apart as well. It's like the Nationals, where they got Foster Griffin to be the fifth man, and now he's kind of the 1st man and...I mean, there's your problem. The infrastructure should work so that someone like Jake Irvin or Josiah Gray or Mitchell Parker is actually up and doing their job and not making this the Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell show. The Astros, we just...ended up here. No disrespect to Lambert, who's making the most of a tough situation, but if he goes down again late in the year cause of the increased workload, it's on the Astros.

The Astros just got Jeremy Pena back, are in third but still under .500, and have to play the Rangers to finish out the first half. I don't think this team is competing this year, and I really hope I don't regret saying that.

Coming Tonight: He missed a few starts, came back stronger than ever and made an all-star team. That sound you hear is Zack Wheeler seething from across the country.

A Rally from the Rally-Killer

 

"I mean, I think it was kinda selfish, to be honest. Uh, everybody else was gettin' on, and.....y'know, home runs are rally-killers. Y'hit a 3-run home run or a grand slam, and it's just like....what now? Y'know? There's nobody on, nobody can drive him in. So...y'know, good for him, I guess..."

-Paul Skenes, barely stifling a smirk, on Ryan O'Hearn's 3-homer, 10-RBI game earlier this week.

For a .500 team, the Pittsburgh Pirates have way more going for them than anyone would have thought. Remember last week when only 1 all-star rep and people just sort of motioned to the team, where Brandon Lowe, Braxton Ashcraft and Bryan Reynolds were absolutely holding court? Well, Ashcraft's made it on, but the other two are arguably even more worthy. Bryan Reynolds is having a comeback season for the ages, with excellent run production and 57 RBIs already. Lowe has 21 homers, 64 RBIs and so far has been extremely healthy and reliable. And now we've got O'Hearn heating up, hitting .289 with 16 homers and 61 RBIs. O'Hearn is a messier player overall than his contemporaries, and his defense has really taken a hit since playing predominantly right field, but he's a very sturdy power bat with a lot more overall value than that, uh, higher profile DH they also got this year. This is a case of filling a team with non-overwhelming practical free agents rather than flooding the base with stars that are too big. Nick Gonzales and Spencer Horwitz and Bryan Reynolds fit right in with Lowe and O'Hearn, there's not a disconnect.

And even with the loss of Konnor Griffin, at least for a few weeks, the youth of this team is taking enough shape to not be much of an issue. Esmerlyn Valdez has only been here for 25 games, and he has 7 home runs and 18 RBIs. That's a .993 OPS, and that's gonna be a problem for other NL Central teams going forward. Keep in mind, they already know that Jhostynxon Garcia will be back at some point with a vengeance, and now they've got this guy too. Meanwhile, Jared Jones was looking pretty perfect the other day against the A's, and might finally be getting his groove back, and Ashcraft and Skenes are still very steady. It's really just Bubba Chandler whose inexperience is really showing right now, velocity notwithstanding. 

The thing you have to remember, ultimately, is that at the end of the day this is the Pirates. As good as they can be, for as long as they can be, there are still obvious flaws. The bullpen is bad enough that taking out Jared Jones after 6 perfect innings means we're not getting 3 more, almost automatically. Tyler Callihan, Billy Cook and Nick Yorke are still somehow not MLB ready. Mitch Keller really is struggling out there. There's also the issue of just not having the infrastructure and depth a lot of other teams have, which is why it's very much a cycle of scrubs trying to not be 26th in terms of usefulness. There's a way around it, and it does involve buying, but will this team be in position to do so in a couple weeks? I don't think they're sellers either, which is nice. But they're still in this grey area, where they could be good but can't completely commit because they're the Pirates.

For now, the offense can keep telling the real story, but if they want to beat the Cardinals and Cubs it's gonna need to be more than that.

Coming Tomorrow- The second most popular member of the 2025 Yakult Swallows to make the MLB this year.