Without Elly

 

So. The day the Reds land, solely, in last place, also happens to be the day that Elly de la Cruz lands on the IL. And now the Reds are without Elly, Hunter Greene, Rhett Lowder, Graham Ashcraft, Emilio Pagan, Jose Trevino and Ke'Bryan Hayes. And while, yes, they are still over .500, and still technically a good team...you take away the tentpole and you see the flaws.

Okay, so who's their best hitter now that Elly's hurt? Well you'd think from his April that Sal Stewart would fit that bill, but he's quieted down a great deal since then, and despite some prime stats [.261 average, 12 homers, 37 RBIs], his May was way less eventful. Actually, their best hitter right now is J.J. Bleday, the A's outfield castoff whose offense tried to make up for his lackluster defense. He's rolled into an everyday role and is hitting .303 with 9 homers and 26 RBIs in 30 games. His May was pretty incredible, and he's already been named one of the players of the month. So even if the Reds were struggling, and considering how many people on this team aren't even hitting .200 it's no wonder, Bleday was an excellent jolt forward. Power from Nathaniel Lowe and a surprising bounce back from Spencer Steer have also helped. 

But yeah, when Stephenson, McLain, Friedl, Benson and Hayes are all hitting under .200, you have to take a step back and regroup. This team has been trying to put a workable formula together for so long, and you'd think that all of these guys would be able to put together good seasons. But McLain once again is struggling to hit substantially, even with more productivity in the last few weeks than he had in April. That Stephenson and Friedl are replacement-level this year are especially heartbreaking.

Thankfully the rotation has solidified a bit, and the Reds haven't needed to do as much starter juggling as usual. Chris Paddack has settled into that 5th spot, and while it's not terrific it's better than his Miami stuff. Singer's struggling but he's eating innings. Lodolo's still got a 5 ERA but he usually figures out how to get it down. Abbott's more hittable than he's ever been but even he's managed to get his ERA under 4. And then Chase Burns is just having an incredible year all around, with a 1.96 ERA, 7 wins and 72 Ks already. I do worry about the bullpen now that Johnson's hurt, but they've got enough workable options at the moment that it's not terribly worrying.

Hopefully by the time Elly gets back there's still stuff that can be salvaged. Cause if not, we may have an NL Central team dip below .500. We wouldn't want that, right?

Coming Tonight: Another guy on a team that probably thought it'd have a better lineup this year. 

DET On Arrival

 

I'm gonna say this very plainly. At the very end of April, the Tigers were 16-16. At .500, in 2nd, still contending. And then the rotation got hurt. And so in May, in total, the Detroit Tigers won...six games. And lost 22. And now they're in last in a division where being over .500 seems like a feat. 

And you can't really go 'what happened?', because it's fairly obvious. The Tigers have some hitting assets but are helped along by strong pitching. When Skubal, Mize, Verlander, Olson and Jobe are all hurt, plus Kenley Jansen and Brant Hurter, you're left with this lineup having to fend for itself, and at its current incarnation they can't outhit most teams. Dillon Dingler, the catcher, has the most home runs on the team with 11. He's the only one with over 10. Riley Greene, as good as he's hitting, only has 5. And the people you'd otherwise rely upon, like Spencer Torkelson, Colt Keith and Kerry Carpenter, aren't hitting whatsoever. Carpenter has power but isn't balancing it out. Plus, with both Gleyber Torres and Javier Baez hurt, the Tigers are resorting to a down Zach McKinstry year covering 2nd everyday, and that doesn't work anymore. Especially with a breakout Kevin McGonigle year next to him.

And it's not as if Dingler's a bad player, but the team was built so that he wouldn't have to do this much. I don't think he was expected to be the Cal Raleigh type this year, at least not completely. But it seems like, somehow, the lineup depth has dissipated, and barring Greene, Dingler and McGonigle, this lineup doesn't really offer much.

I'm intrigued by some of the ways the Tigers are filling the rotation vacancies though. They're going with Troy Melton in Skubal's spot essentially, and that's working, he's got a 1.42 ERA through his first two starts. They also tried out Ty Madden in Mize's spot tonight, and that didn't go quite as well. Otherwise, the Tigers are going with Jack Flaherty, who's worn out from a few consecutive full seasons, Framber Valdez, who also seems a bit wrung out and not his usual, dominant self, and Keider Montero who's been pretty good. But without Skubal, they've been equalized, and nearly every team in the AL Central's been taking advantage. Even with a huge offensive swell over the Rays tonight, it's not gonna be a shutout thanks to the Tigers' pitching.

The way through this awful stretch is a rebound of full-squad health, and I don't know if they'll get that til July at this rate. For now, they need an offensive upswing, and to get the heck out of last. Games like tonight's will help, but only if they can keep runs down in addition.

Coming Tomorrow- The Marlins dealt him. The A's cut him. And the Reds are watching him deliver a surprise smash of a month for them. 

Behind the Wheels

 

One of the reasons why many pundits worried that the Phillies' regime would die out after this year was the sustainability of the once-strong rotation. With Suarez and Elfin gone, Walker on the way out and more emphasis on Painter and Luzardo, the idea was that either Nola and Wheeler hunker down for the long run or trail off. And in the middle of all this was Cristopher Sanchez, who, if you'll recall, was a 50/50 for the last rotation spot out of camp a few years ago. Sanchie was a serviceable fifth man in 2023, put on more of a role for an 11-win full season in 2024, then had an incredible season deserving of both an ASG nod [but nobody wanted to go pretty much] and a Cy Young [but, y'know, Skenes]. 

And now...Cristopher Sanchez is the best pitcher in baseball. He's only allowed one run since May began, has a 1.47 ERA on the season, has struck out 95, and has a 4.3 WAR. The level of dominance Sanchie has been capable of this month does not come around often. Misiorowski is doing this as well, but...before that it had never happened to 2 guys in the same month. And what's fantastic is that Sanchez worked his way into this position, and now he's essentially the #1 guy.

Getting Wheeler back has been really nice, because Wheels is still very much in his prime, and similarly unhittable. He's got a 2.27 ERA, 40 Ks and 4 wins through 7 starts. Zack Wheeler, kinda like Gerrit Cole, is quieting the injury concerns and is pitching like he was before. Having Sanchez and Wheeler at the top of the rotation is a luxury a lot of teams simply don't have. Two untouchable, formidable guys at the top of their game, firing on all cylinders. 

Now...the trouble is getting running support behind them. As we're seeing with this Dodgers series, they pick their select moments to show up. Edmundo Sosa has been clutch for this team, but if it wasn't for him, they'd have been swept. Schwarber can show up and hit a home run, or Marsh and Harper can have big nights, but the bulk of the team is still limping along. Bohm WAS improving but that seems to have subsided. I think Turner's trying to catch fire, he's still not where he usually is around this time of year. And now J.T. might be out for some more time, meaning unless we really wanna go with the Rafael Marchan show again, this team needs to seriously think about the next generation behind the plate. I dunno who we have that's ready, though. We can't even get Otto Kemp time in the majors, let alone anyone who'd need to be there. 

So the flaws are still evident, even as this team approaches .500 and looks better than they had before Mattingly took over. People are convinced a midseason trade would save the team, a Trout or Robert trade, the likes of which we've been hearing rumors about since like 2023. I dunno if these'll actually happen this time. We just have to see how the Phils progress as we get further to July, and if the lineup can actually turn a corner. 

Coming Tonight: Speaking of teams that aren't hitting, an unlikely everyday catcher hoping to once again jumpstart some forward momentum at the plate.

Painfully Common Men

 

The Blue Jays could have used this Orioles series this weekend as a way of reestablishing leverage and keeping a foothold on some of the goings-on in the AL East. Instead, they dropped 2 games, including a walkoff, and the story is instead how the Orioles are quietly gaining momentum. Nice going.

The odd thing is, the loss of Dylan Cease, at least for a little while, didn't seem to heavily affect this team's leverage. Even without Cease, they still have Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage and Patrick Corbin moving the needle. They could have had Eric Lauer in a time like this, with two open rotation spots being given to bullpen days, but apparently the Dodgers needed him more. Gausman, ultimately, has regained the ace mantle, and has been once again on target, with a 3.13 ERA and 66 Ks, plus a 1.087 WHIP. Gausman is continuing his strong work from 2025, and has remained one of the most consistent starting weapons of the decade. Since 2021, Gausman has made all his starts, struck out over 160 batters, won at least 10 games, and finished with an ERA lower than 3.85. Remember when every pitcher could do that for six seasons? Now Gausman, who we all thought was cooked after a rough 2019 in Atlanta, is one of a few who can. And I'm very happy for him.

Also once again going for the attendance award is bafflingly inconsistent starter Patrick Corbin, whose unpredictability made him a pariah after his Nats contract ended. In actuality, Corbin hasn't really been hurt since his 2014 surgery, and has made all his starts every year since then. Now...the material isn't always STELLAR...and from 2021 to 2023 Corbin led the league in losses, but his time in Arlington represented a surprising step forward, even if his second half was inferior to his first. Now in Toronto, Corbin being seventh in line to start led to a relatively early rotation promotion [thanks to the Scherzer injury], and since then he's been shockingly reliable. He's got a 3.65 ERA and 36 Ks, even if his WHIP is up at 1.358. All Corbin really needs to do is fulfill the Chris Bassitt role and eat innings, and he's certainly doing that. And meanwhile, behind them, Trey Yesavage is having a very strong full year of work, with a 2.19 ERA in 7 starts,

Beyond that core three, and Louie Varland who's been absolutely untouchable in a prime relief role, the Jays don't have a ton to report recently. They've remained relatively steady, and are only 2 games under .500, but the x-factor of 2025 is basically gone. The 'uncommon men' group isn't doing nearly as much as last year, with Barger hurt, Straw struggling, Schneider demoted and Clement, despite the contact parade, a few steps down from last year overall. There's just less overall depth, and with Jesus Sanchez down with a freak 'catch-playing' injury, the indestructibility is also questionable. Vlad and Varsho are doing everything they can but the full squad effort isn't where it was last year.

But, again, it is still relatively early, and the Jays haven't committed enough faults to be dangerously out of the way. So it could all come back. After all, these Jays teams have a tendency to get hot in June, and look what starts tomorrow..

Coming Tomorrow- He was practically untouchable in May. Can he do what no Phils pitcher has done in years and carry a Cy Young case all the way through?

Empty Threats

 

The Padres, like last year, are firmly in second place, a few games behind the Dodgers, in attempt to intimidate them for the division. Unlike last year, I have no idea how the heck they can be intimidating when they lineup's barely showing up as it is.

I mean, look. Since 2024 we've been building around a core of Machado, Tatis, Merrill, Bogaerts. Okay. Manny Machado has 9 home runs and 28 RBIs, but he's hitting .171 and has a -0.4 WAR, some of the most pitifully one-dimensional numbers of his entire career. You can see he's trying but he's just not having a good time up there. Fernando Tatis, despite hitting .268 with a team-leading 55 hits...cannot hit home runs anymore. It's not happening. Whatever took him down a year or so ago, whatever injury, that took his power ability away. We're two months into the season and we're JUST NOW getting to his first homer of the season. He launched one last night. Need I remind you, this man hit FORTY-TWO before, and he started a lot earlier than May 30th. I know his father put up a high bar for squandering sky-high potential, but you can't seriously be chasing that. Jackson Merrill, meanwhile, is only hitting .201 with 5 home runs and 21 RBIs, possibly with the opposite problem as Machado where he's still technically pre-peak. Xander Bogaerts is at least producing runs, he's got 5 homers and 25 RBIs, but that's the best of the four.

And so it's been up to people like Gavin Sheets, Miguel Andujar, Ramon Laureano and Ty France to do most of the work, and it really shouldn't. They're the supplemental guys, they help you out. Sheets leads the team in OPS with .834, and he's got 9 dingers of his own, and...it's very nice, but he should be among a bunch of people driving in the runs. It shouldn't be him leading the charge. Laureano's ONCE AGAIN doing more work than he should for a cheap contract, just not as prominently as in Baltimore. France is hitting .287, has 6 homers and 17 RBIs, and is finding success he never was able to in San Diego. Seeing him in the same infield as Machado is wild. Even wilder that France is playing better.

The runs are getting produced, but the core isn't really responsible. Thankfully, with a pitching staff this good it doesn't really matter. King, Vazquez and Giolito are holding things down for 6 innings, then you go to honestly any bullpen guy and you're good. This year Bradgley Rodriguez is the big standout, but Jeremiah Estrada, Wandy Peralta, Jason Adam, Yuki Matsui and, well, Mason Miller, are all having excellent seasons. So really, the dysfunction in the lineup isn't as much of an issue as it could be because the rest of the team's doing what it should be doing. It ain't pretty, but it's working.

In order to FINALLY catch the Dodgers, they're gonna need the stars to step up and flip the script on their seasons. Cause if not, there's really no point. We've proven that Tatis can hit homers again. He needs to prove that the recovery period is over, and that he's gonna keep hitting them at a gradually accelerating rate. Y'know, like a ballplayer might.

Coming Tonight: 8 years after divebombing his career after a trade to a competitor, one of the most consistent pitchers of the 2020s continues his excellent run in Toronto.

Don't Let the Mets Get You Down

 

So, story time. Back when boxes of cards were actually affordable I used to do these box breaks for the blog, and a lot of them were older, cheaper products but one time I went for a box of 2019 Topps Heritage Minors. Why not, right? It was a pretty cool rip, I pulled a Jo Adell game-used jersey card whose value has fluctuated like a gosh darned barometer, and I pulled an on-cast autograph of a Brooklyn Cyclones outfielder named Carlos Cortes. 

Now I don't really break these for the hits, I honestly do it for the XRC possibility. So a Julio XRC, a Robert XRC, an Oneil Cruz XRC, all this was the pull. The hits didn't need to be big, though the Adell didn't hurt. But getting a Mets prospect I hadn't heard of was...at least better than getting a Marlins prospect I hadn't heard of, which is my usual auto luck. Cortes could go either way. I kept the card, despite the occasional inclination of trading it.

I still have it. I reckon the value's gone up a hair this year.

Carlos Cortes has gone from a struggling power bat stuck in the Mets' farm system to a lead off schtarker with insane contact ability for the 2nd place Athletics. Cortes is now starting in right field, and hitting .333 with a .945 OPS. This was charming bench bat stuff last year, and now we're talking some lethal material, even for a 29-year-old who, for all intents and purposes, is still a rookie as far as Topps is concerned [of course, they also think anyone who debuts south of May 20th is a 'call-up' they can't profit off of til 2027, so what do they know?]. In a May that's featured injuries to Jacob Wilson and Max Muncy, Cortes has been steady, scary and more accurate than any other A's hitter, even Nick Kurtz.

It's incredible that a guy like this can become a heavy-hitter after all this time wasting away, but this is honestly the norm now. Even with the amount of pitchers most teams use now, there's still a longer wait for many prospects to actually make the bigs, hence the amount of 29-year-old breakouts we've seen in the last year or so, including Nathan Lukes, Curtis Mead, Foster Griffin, Tristan Gray and, yes, now Cortes. You can even root this back to Joey Meneses, who became an overnight sensation with Washington at thirty. As cool as these breakouts are, the career longevity is not there because the minors has ate up 5 prime years or so, so now they're breaking out, and 30 is around the corner and...well, there's gonna be a downturn. It's why Jeff McNeil and Whit Merrifield breaking out at 27 spelled doom for their long term value, though to be fair McNeil's still doing a fine job in Sacramento at 34. 

It's also a contrast from the youth-oriented core the team has developed, though not from the noticeably older rotation that's, to be clear, working. Springs, Ginn and Civale are working on nice seasons, and while it's not the approach I expected, they're getting the job done. With Sevvy and Civale getting hurt, you are seeing a desire to bring the young guys out, and uh...hopefully Gage Jump evens out over time, because they cannot keep doing the 'GET READY FOR THE BIG A'S PITCHING PROSPECT' schtick only for them to give up 7 runs and immediately need surgery. Joe Boyle, Gunnar Hoglund, Luis Morales...shit's getting old.

The A's are still in a decent position, have no issue scoring runs and are still in the thick of the divisional race. This Yankees series has the potential to slow them down a little but they're ahead of where they usually are around this point.

Coming Tomorrow- He got out of Chicago at the right time, but is it the wrong time to be in San Diego?

Chicago Cope

 

The Blackhawks and Bulls didn't make the playoffs, the Bears don't play for a bit. For now, Chicago sports fans get to decide who gets to disappoint them in the interim. One of these Chicago teams has a high payroll, an expertly-plucked manager, a key new addition this year and some of the most impressive winning streaks of the season. The other is the Chicago White Sox. They both essentially have the same record right now. 

And I think the White Sox might honestly have the edge right now? Because the Cubs will do this thing where they win 10 games in a row and are really excited and then they lose 10 games in a row and...like, what was the point of any of that. The White Sox are as inconsistent and up-and-down as any middle of the road team, and they're not really pretending they're anything they're not. They've had a lucky stretch as of late, they're in 2nd in the AL Central, ahead of the Tigers and Royals who've both had terrible months. 

This season, the White Sox actually have some palpable star performances, rather than 'people who are doing slightly better than average'. Munetaka Murakami has 20 home runs, 41 RBIs, and...79 strikeouts but that's less important. Davis Martin is a genuine pitching gem right now, he's 8-1 with a 2 ERA. It takes a lot to have 8 wins through 2 months on a middle of the road team like the White Sox, but Martin's got enough in the tank to make it work. Even Miguel Vargas, who I've written off like three different times now, has an .831 OPS, 12 homers and 31 RBIs. It's a very nice run for the corner infielder who seems to have finally hit his stride in Chicago. And then Colson Montgomery, Chase Meidroth, Tristan Peters, Sam Antonacci and Randal Grichuk are all filing in behind them with terrific seasons and great offensive skill. I knew a lot of these answers would click eventually but this is a very sure, very accurate version of this team. 

And on top of all that they keep bringing up surefire hits. They just threw Rikuu Nishida, a Japanese-born, U.S. based outfielder, into the mix and he's already a defensive favorite. And they just brought up David Sandlin, dealt by Boston for a bag of chips so that's ANOTHER White Sox star you can thank the Red Sox for, he went 6 innings and all he gave up was a solo homer for his debut. They're figuring more stuff out, and getting more and more confident.

Whereas the Cubs...have basically all the pieces for a competitive, division-clinching team...yet can't stay lucky with them.

I dunno if PCA cursing out the Sox fan was the turning point but it can't have helped. It's not that Pete Crow Armstrong's having a bad season per se, as he's an asset in the outfield and on the base paths, but that .677 OPS for a star player just illuminates how people are turning on the guy. This villain arc has allowed people to go 'maybe he's just not that good'. Cause at least when Alex Bregman gets in an argument with a fan on twitter, he remembers to hit .300 and knock 30 long balls or something. But PCA, as valuable as he is in terms of WAR, is a .224 hitter who leads the team in strikeouts, and it's wild that because of his multi-tool prowess that's not a dealbreaker anymore. He's not Taylor Walls bad, but he's verging on it.

The rotation's caved in a bit without Cade Horton, Edward Cabrera and Matt Boyd, plus Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon have had some rough stretches of late. And then you call on Jordan Wicks for the first time in a year, he gets lit up. This looked like a great rotation in March, and it's not coming together. For all that this team is hitting, and they very much are, the injury troubles with the pitching staff have deadened the attack, and have neutralized them at a moment where the Brewers, and to a lesser extent the Cardinals, aren't as put off. 

In the Cubs' defense, they have been finishing off the Pirates quite a bit lately, and seem to be working their way back up. They're giving Ben Brown more of a workload, including some starts, and they're coasting on an incredible run from Ian Happ. They'll likely be fine in the long run. But this month, especially the crosstown series, pointed out how much trouble they could be in this year. They've been getting caught sleeping late the past few years, and this year they need to ensure a different outcome. 

Coming Tonight: The Mets got tired of waiting. The A's jumped at the ideal timing. Be like the A's.