World in Motion

 

Whatever picture has been crafted of the 30 MLB teams during the first couple weeks of spring training is now drastically altered due to the mass exodus of players warming up for the World Baseball Classic. I think they used to time this so that it'd happen earlier and the WBC guys would eventually rejoin the team squads in time for longer games and full-squad scrimmages. And now it's happening later and, as the MLB clubs ramp up spring action, they'll be doing so with incomplete squads. 

I think the good news about the White Sox heading into the next couple weeks is that they are not solely Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Teel. Maybe last year, or the year before, if those two players were taken out of the lengthened scrimmages and they had to develop a gameplan without those two guys, it'd be a little trickier. But the White Sox, somehow, have more of a team this year. Perhaps not enough to compete, but enough to not be a complete laughingstock.

First of all, this spring has confirmed that Murakami is the kind of contact DH that this team kinda needs. He's not all about the long ball, but he's got enough pop to get people home, and in droves. Murakami could have signed lots of places, and it's clear that it took his stock plummeting for him to land in Chicago, but everything about Murakami's demeanor tells me this is where he wants to be. He's not Shohei Ohtani, he's not 'I have to be the best'. Murakami didn't need LA money, he just wanted to be somewhere he could succeed, and he's crafty enough to see that in Chicago. So far, he's looking like an impressive piece for this team.

But even without him, the White Sox just have more depth this year. They're going in with Teel, Edgar Quero, Chase Meidroth and Colson Montgomery at the MLB level, and that's a really cool young core with a high ceiling and immediate perks. This season also means figuring out whether Brooks Baldwin and Miguel Vargas are transitional pieces or if they can actually factor into this team. I still think Vargas is just a placeholder guy that isn't meant to be a building block. Not everyone can wind up with an Anthony Rizzo or a Cedric Mullins immediately. And then they now have Austin Hays, who seems to thrive better in cities that aren't major or metropolitan for...some reason, so him in Chicago will be interesting. The rotation has been supplanted by Erick Fedde, as well as Anthony Kay post-overseas reinvention, so basically Erick Fedde 2 years ago. I'm hoping Fedde just thrived with these pitching coaches, cause he really couldn't figure it out last year. 

If all goes according to plan, this team will build enough of a base this March that, once Murakami comes back, he'll supplant the preexisting energy, and they'll be off to a decent start. Cause there's a lot more going on here, not even counting the potential call-ups of Braden Montgomery and Wikelman Gonzalez. Maybe Murakami knew something was coming and he wanted to be on the ground floor before it got big. And hopefully it goes better for him than it's gone for Masataka Yoshida.

Comeback Rookie of the Year

 

There have been a lot of unnecessary additions to rookie discourse, like teams intentionally keeping players down to control service time, Topps' unnecessarily early rookie cutoff only depicting Rookie of the Year stories that happen in the first one and a half months of the season, the entire 2020 season, where Devin Williams got an award for having a good August, and the very definition of what counts as a rookie season keeping players eligible for awards even after making a breakout impact. It's all a little bit broken, and it's kind of unfairly balanced against the players' side. I still don't think Luis Gil deserved a ROY award in 2024, because to me his rookie season was 2021, because that was the season where he set a rookie record. 

But what's really complicated talking about rookies now is the unnecessary conditioning of pitchers to throw hard in their teens and overexert themselves to the point where, by the time they hit the majors, they're a ticking time-bomb waiting for Tommy John surgery. Nobody works their way up anymore, nobody embraces craftsmanship. It's all about smoke, because it's all about longballs. All extremes. So the rookie of the year, if it's a pitcher, is a lot of the times 'which pitcher went the longest without getting hurt'. Luis Gil was that and he wasn't even a rookie. 

So it's gonna be very interesting to see how people talk about Andrew Painter this year. Andrew Painter is 100% a rookie, he's never played an MLB game, his likely Opening Day roster inclusion will mark his MLB debut. But with the way Painter's development has gone, I'm not even sure if this season will truly feel like a rookie campaign for him. Painter, a 2021 first-rounder, was looking MLB-ready for a 2023 debut, and then in Spring Training his arm started showing wear, and so he got Tommy John surgery, missed all of 2024, and was shaky in Lehigh Valley all last year, hence no call-up. If he had made the majors in 2023, if that damage was found a month or so later, then some of those 5.20 ERA Lehigh starts would have been major league starts, meaning 2026 would be primed for a comeback campaign, sort of like Casey Mize last year. 

But because Painter never reached the majors, his comeback season at 23 will also be his rookie season. Meaning if, by some chance, Painter starts 32 games with a 3 ERA and wins a Rookie of the Year, which is not impossible, it'll have some very interesting subtext, a rookie season with the energy of a post-TJ comeback season. How will it be judged? How will PAINTER be judged going forward? 

If any Phillies season would need a dominant Andrew Painter season, it would be this one. Ranger Suarez is gone, Zack Wheeler might still miss some starts, Aaron Nola might be past his prime, and it's really looking like Taijuan Walker might be relied upon for a bit. In a scenario where Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Nola and Walker are rounding out the Opening Day rotation, and the Phillies want to remain a match against the Mets and Braves, they need Painter as a great MLB option. It's a lot of pressure, yes, but seeing as Painter's been terrific went healthy, and went 13th overall for a reason, it could work out. The thing I think is troublesome is the fact that for the Phillies to retain dominance, they need Painter to get MLB hitting immediately, and I'm not 100% sure of that yet. 

The Phillies have the appearance of a team beckoning on diminishing returns, with no real new blood and a lot of core people hoping to shake off rumors of going past their prime. Andrew Painter, and for that matter Justin Crawford and the potential of an Aidan Miller debut, could quiet that. If there's a successful shift to the next era, the Phillies could remain a league superpower in the same way the Astros have, just persisting. It just takes a lot going right this year, and a full, healthy season from Painter is a huge part of that.

Reproducing the Unexpected

 

There's a colleague of mine who's had a whirlwind 6 months. His baseball team is the Blue Jays, and he got to see them make a World Series this year. And his football team is the Seahawks, and he got to watch them defy the odds and win a Super Bowl. That's a lot of good stuff in a small period of time, especially after the Jays' last WS appearance was over 30 years ago and the Seahawks' last Super Bowl appearance was over 10 years ago. A decade of nothing and then everything at once sure is a nice change of pace.

I think that one of those two teams has built enough to engineer playoff pushes and potential championship campaigns for the next few years. Unfortunately it's not the Blue Jays. 

The Blue Jays' 2025 season, as triumphant as it was, happened because of so many other factors. The momentum the Jays found was sustained even as the Yankees, Mariners and Tigers failed to expand on their strong regular seasons. The approach the Jays entered the season with was altered, and once the team fully favored the contact platooning and bare-bones battery, nobody could really outclobber that. Any power perk the team thought they'd get by signing Anthony Santander was less important than the contact perks of giving Ernie Clement, Myles Straw, Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes and Davis Schneider more playing time. Lukes accomplished more at DH than Tony Taters did, which was a reality the Jays were not really thinking of last February. 

The 2025 Jays worked because nobody was quite prepared for them, and nobody could handle a full-season momentum like they could. But with every runaway surprise team comes the possibility of diminishing returns. There's two ways this team goes forward. Either it's the pie in the sky way, where this IS sustainable, Trey Yesavage is exactly who they think he is, nobody gets injured and everything falls in line exactly how it did in 2025...or the cynical view, where the lack of Bo Bichette, the overpaying for Dylan Cease and thereby losing out on Kyle Tucker, the steepening competition in the AL East and the inevitable atrophy of the deliberate recreation of success keep the team from making much of a dent in the overall picture of 2026. Both are possible. One more than the other.

Eyes are going to be on Ernie Clement to have a bigger season this year. There's no Bo, I'm guessing this'll be a down Springer year, and the team needs Clement to step up and continue his multi-tool contact work. It's just not clear if Clement is going to be that guy or not. He'll be 30 this year, he's still an ace defender, but he's never been the full package at the plate. Last year he had 151 hits, a career high, in addition to highs in the runs and doubles categories. He'll likely be starting at second due to Kazuma Omamoto taking third, meaning Andres Gimenez will be moving to short. It might not click immediately for any of them. Either Clement steps up and takes a larger stake in this team, or he continues on as a 'good piece' without much further use. That's gonna be the big takeaway from this coming season, whether the carousel of 'good pieces' that got the team so far into the playoffs have staying power beyond the 2025 season. I'd love for Addison Barger to cement himself, but will he? Same with Lukes. 

The rotation, at the very least, is less of a worry because there's already so many contingency plans. It's gonna be Cease-Gausman-Yesavage-Berrios-Ponce, Bieber will come back eventually, Scherzer will surface when he's ready and Lauer is the longman who can take starts if need be. That's a very good plan. There's also enough guys in their prime that there's not an extreme atrophy worry [though Gausman coooould take a step back]. If anything, the pitching will keep them competitive. But if what worked in 2025 stalls in 2026, they might need to crumple and toss again at some point.

With the talent they have on that roster, and the potential they've showed in the playoffs, the Blue Jays are still a formidable team. Clearly. They kept Vlad Jr. for a reason. I'm just not sure if the AL East is theirs right now, let alone the AL title. But we'll see I suppose.

The Art of Running it Back

 

Spring Training is one of those times of extreme optimism. Everything's good, everything's promising, cause no games have been played yet. It could be anybody's year, and that includes us. Right now, there are 30 valid storylines being concocted towards a championship outcome, and since it's still February there's really no ruling out any of them. And you can make the joke of 'well, we can rule out the Rockies', and yeah, probably. But the Pirates, A's and White Sox are usually counted out and even they have more going on this year. 

But it's easier to look like a new team when you've made substantial moves towards a championship. The Pirates got some genuine big pieces this year, for once. The White Sox got Murakami plus a TON of solid options at multiple positions. The A's actually put money into the roster and have a team for the next few years. If your plan is just to 'run it back', then you're gonna get people saying 'they don't want to win'. And running it back can still be a valid way forward, the Dodgers mostly ran it back last year and it did well for them. But certain fanbases demand some effort. The Phillies fans by me are somewhat infuriated that the plan to fix an aging core is to simply run it back, forgetting that A.) the team strengthened its bullpen and has at least three organizational cornerstones hitting the majors this year, B.) they got to keep Schwarber's offense and Realmuto's defense, and C.) they don't have to be stuck with either Bo Bichette's defense or Nick Castellanos's anything. The general plan is 'run it back' but they still fixed what killed the team. 

However, not everyone is so lucky. Some teams just decide to run it back and insist they're still moving forward.

The Arizona Diamondbacks want the big takeaway from this offseason to be, 'see, we kept Ketel Marte, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen'. Forgetting that literally all three were highly sought after by other teams. The D-Backs were actively shopping Marte, even coming close to a deal with Seattle that backfired when the M's refused to part with Cole Young. Perhaps knowing that trading their young, upstart 2nd baseman to Arizona for a veteran rounding a top tier year didn't work well for them in the past, so there was no use getting Ketel Marte if they'd be giving up another, younger Ketel Marte. Kelly returning to AZ was a surprise, and Gallen came back only after several teams, including the Cubs and Orioles, balked at the suggested number he had in mind. There is a universe where the D-Backs lose all three players, and possibly even Perdomo as well [he was reportedly shopped too] and still have to play the 'we're still running it back' game. 

In addition to the three players the D-Backs kept that they almost didn't, the only real players the team brought on were 'let's see what they have left' guys. Mike Soroka keeps being brought onto teams with the belief that what was glimpsed in 2018 could return, but we're still waiting for that. Carlos Santana will be 40 this year, and he's almost completely lost his ability to hit for power. And Nolan Arenado...no one is quite sure what he has left. He wasn't *terrible* for the Cardinals last season, but it was the most human year of his career, and the most injury-plagued one too. His defense is still above average, but that bat isn't what it was, and unless the soon-to-be-35-year-old has something else up his sleeve, he'll be a high priced defensive upgrade that will exist to keep Jordan Lawlar from starting [again]. Arenado is no longer the boost that he was, and he may have more in common with Evan Longoria in 2023...though Longo had a better team around him then.

The D-Backs running it [diamond]back in a year where the Dodgers are still expected to win the division and the Padres and Giants are still expected to compete is an odd move. It's better than fully giving up, and I think they know they've been right there the past few years and could boost over, but I'm not sure if it'll work this time.

The Astros, meanwhile, have a similar 'run it back' strategy even if some substantial changes have been made. Jesus Sanchez, a crucial deadline pickup from last year, was dealt for Joey Loperfido, and Tatsuya Imai was brought in as a starting option. However, the issue with running it back from 2025 is that this year, the majority of the contingency plans are in camp together with the people they subbed in for with injuries. Which means Brandon Walter, Spencer Arrighetti and Cristian Javier are competing with Jason Alexander, A.J. Blubaugh and Colton Gordon for rotation spots, in addition to newcomers Tatsuya Imai and Mike Burrows, plus preexisting locks Hunter Brown, Lance McCullers and...wait, what? How...that's like 10 people fighting for 5 spots. 

Like, I get the idea of preparing for injuries by putting in contingency starters, but you're now ensuring like 5 other people who are MLB-ready will either be doing long relief work or starting in Triple-A. Mike Burrows was doing fairly well in Pittsburgh, he gets traded to Houston and now we're not even sure if he's gonna make the team. I actually think he's got a nice shot to make the rotation, but then who doesn't? Is Jason Alexander getting cut? This was supposed to be the summer of George!

More confusing still is what the Astros plan on doing with their lineup. Last year at the deadline they traded for Carlos Correa, opting for a 2016 reunion in the wake of Isaac Paredes's injury. Paredes eventually came back and they traded off for the postseason push...of a postseason that didn't actually happen for this team. This year, the plan seems to be starting Correa at third...which, again was only due to convenience last year, then starting Paredes at DH, and...for some reason getting Yordan Alvarez to play left field everyday. I don't think that's sustainable. You're saying you'd rather have Alvarez's defense than Paredes's, which I don't completely agree with. If anything, Paredes should get more reps at first, as Christian Walker may be on the downslope.

It illuminates the problem with running it back, because if you're running it back with everyone who was there last time, without, like...letting people go and standing down the roster to an actual manageable unit, then it's gonna be chaos! Then deserving people aren't gonna be able to start, they're gonna ask to be traded and the league opinion of the organization is gonna go down further, even after the cheating. It just makes no sense to me, at least at this stage of the spring. I do know the Astros have a way of working things out, even if it doesn't look possible on paper. So even with all this they could still compete this year. 

This is why I'm not a GM. I'm way too pragmatic about it. There's so many moves that don't make sense to me because I only see it from the outside perspective. So maybe running it back works for one of these teams, or maybe both. Or, y'know...I'm right, and then some team can hire me to be assistant GM. 

2026: Mind the Elephant Dung

 

It's not as if the MLB hasn't done a 'let's pretend everything's normal' season before. You saw it in 1995. You saw it in 2020 and 2021, after the pandemic. You saw it after free agency began in the 70s. There is always going to be an effort, whenever there is something that, in a just world, would lead to work stoppage or a deliberation, for the people who lie and die by the revenue to go 'okay, from the top, just like the last time'. 

More than even 2023, the league seems headed for not just a players' strike, but a complete lockout. The wealth disparity between owners has become ridiculous, with teams like the Dodgers able to routinely buy championships, and teams like the Guardians [who, keep in mind, also have CEOs with plenty of money] not at all able to compete. The players are gonna go towards the best offers to sustain their lifestyles, and the guys with the bigger pockets are gonna have those, so they're gonna keep winning. Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and Tyler Soderstrom will be making Shohei Ohtani money for their solid but not overly spectacular gameplay. And so the owners' immediate response is, 'okay, let's pay everyone less and do a salary cap'. Not to actually put more money into the team and try as much as the top guys are. No, bring them down and justify their lack of spending. 

It's 100% true that every MLB player, and MiLB player, deserves the right to earn enough to make a living. But if there's a pay disparity, the workers should not be blamed or penalized, the owners and CEOs should. Without players, there is no product, as the owners will likely find out in a year's time. If you want to bring in revenue, you need to pay your star players, or any players, what they are worth. We know what happens when an owner doesn't do this, and it leads to a mass talent exodus that makes John Fisher only the SECOND-worst owner in A's history. Now, it's also an issue when the lack of talent on the field, and the lack of ticket sales, doesn't provide an incentive for owners to spend because they own 3 or 4 other things with more immediate revenue. 

Regardless, something needs to be done. I'm of the opinion that a salary floor should be implemented above all else, to incentivize the Bob Nuttings and Pohlads of this world to actually build teams. Some cap might need to be in there as well None of the players' union people want a salary cap, even with Tony Clark conveniently leaving his position ahead of the union a year or so before deliberations begin [it's still bad what he did, I just think the timing of it coming out is really suspicious]. You have two stubborn camps, one with money and one without, and like in 2023, and 1994, you can kind of guess who's gonna cave first. Whether or not the solution will actually help anyone, that's another thing entirely.

But with all this a year away, and with the tensions between the owners and players still relatively high [remember, Bryce Harper nearly beat the shit out of Rob Manfred last year], there's still a season of baseball that needs to be played. Which means everyone needs to act like there isn't gonna be a work stoppage next year and deliver an exciting season. Easy, right?

There's obviously a lot of great storylines to follow this season. The Cubs are certainly one of them. Yes, they lost Kyle Tucker, but they gained Alex Bregman, still an elite third baseman and an upgrade from Matt Shaw in several ways. Bregman-Swanson-Hoerner-Busch may be one of the best infields in the league, on a count of how much can be produced, and how much value you're getting. The Cubs have reportedly tried to trade Nico Hoerner, but I wouldn't dream of it considering how valuable he's been for them, and how consistent he's been since 2022. With the Brewers looking to continue their sleeper-hit status and the Reds looking to compete without overdoing it, the Cubs are the favorite for 1st in the NL Central. Y'know, like last year. Is this the team that actually gets over the hump?

A lot of really cool stuff could happen in this season. Konnor Griffin might be ready in Pittsburgh, and that team might have enough to sneak into the conversation. The Athletics might be a playoff team this year, and have the contracts to last them through the Vegas premiere. Murakami might be the piece that gets the White Sox out of 'laughable' status. Andrew Painter might FINALLY get to start MLB games. Ohtani and Judge might chase 50 again. There's all sorts of promise and excitement, and I really hope this year can deliver, even if it's looking pretty likely that we might not get a full season next year. 

My Unofficial Hall of Ballot for 2026

 The wild part about collecting and following baseball for 19 odd years has been seeing players that were active when I was finding my place in the baseball atmosphere now being discussed for Hall of Fame enshrinement. Virtually everyone on the current ballot was around when I was collecting, and a couple cases, namely Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence, began their careers the very year I started actively collecting new products. The first big shift was seeing Greg Maddux and Frank Thomas get in, cause those guys were just wrapping up their careers yet still loomed large. And then when Jeter, Halladay and Rivera got in it was a sense of seeing some of my heroes whose primes I witnessed firsthand getting immortalized.

And so now, we've reached a Hall of Fame ballot featuring guys who retired as recently as 2020. That's a sobering thought. We're beginning to run thin on guys from the 2000s, though at least two of them will be getting in today. We're also headed towards a bumper crop of surefire heroes of the 2010s, one of which is coming immediately next year and a few more of which will be first ballot submissions between 2028 and 2029. So this year is...ultimately another 'catch-up' year, with no first year standouts [the nearest HOF bet of the newcomers likely has to do another 5 or so years on the ballot in order to get the traction], and the majority of the votes going to two guys who have 'done their time', in a sense. 

Like usual, I'll allow myself the usual guidelines of Hall of Fame voters, despite the fact that no one in their right minds would ever let me cast an actual ballot. I can go up to ten names, and I don't think I'll do all ten. Fundamentally, I've counted out anyone suspected of steroid use [even Andy Pettitte, sudden surge notwithstanding], and I've looked long and hard in order to separate the 'legendary' cases from the 'very good' cases. There are some people on this unofficial ballot that I didn't think were worthy until the case was made cumulatively, and there'll be people on this ballot that the case hasn't been made for yet but could come very soon.

So, as usual, we'll start with a tough sell that seems to be becoming less and less tough:

Bobby Abreu:

Last week when Kyle Tucker signed with the Dodgers, a lot of people I know were complaining about the size of the per-year dollars he'd be getting, a sign that teams are paying some guys more money than they really deserve, which I do think is an issue generally. But the line that was used was 'the Dodgers just spent 70 million a year for Bobby Abreu'. And like...that's kind of an insult to Bobby Abreu. Cause you're saying that if Abreu was around today he'd be one of the most valued players in the game. Because he played during the 2000s, and for a middling Phillies team for most of his career, it's impossible to make a case for Abreu as a game changer. But the way I look at it is that now that Tony Oliva and Dick Allen are in, two guys with consistent contact ability over a long period of time, without the 'omg' stats of their contemporaries, it's been proven that if you're a generational hitter with no atrophy for more than 5 or so years, there's a case to be made for you. Bobby Abreu had a 41.6 WAR from 1998 to 2004, with a .308 average, 1212 hits, 203 stolen bases and 3 100 RBI seasons. Frustratingly he didn't win his first gold glove or make his first All Star team til his 30s. The tell is that in his prime, I'd say with certainty that anybody would have wanted Abreu on their team, as the guy was a swiss army knife of usefulness. He's trending slightly upward this year, but I'm not sure if he'll have accumulated the votes by 2030. Still, can't deny what a great player he was.

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 15%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 50%

Carlos Beltran:

I think around 2013 or so, people were convinced that even if Beltran wasn't a first-ballot guy, he definitely had a chance. And this was in a period where even Adrian Beltre wasn't a lock. Carlos Beltran went from being a jack of all trades contact speedster in Kansas City to being a perennial playoff threat with the Astros, Mets and Cardinals. He finished his career with 435 home runs, 2725 hits, 7 100+ RBI seasons and, dubiously, a World Series ring. I completely agree with the stigma of the cheating robbing him of even a second or third year entry. But now it just seems like we're done kidding ourselves. The 2017 sign-stealing scandal was messed up, and there was a possibility he would have taken that mentality to the Mets in 2020. But, as opposed to the steroid abusers that have evaded induction, the sign-stealing takes only a year off of Beltran's career, and the worst year of his career at that. Taking 2017 out of the equation, he's still a Hall of Famer, and he's still a true 2000s legend. 

Team of Induction: Kansas City Royals

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 98%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 100%

Cole Hamels:

You're gonna notice that there are a lot of 2008 Phillies on my ballot. There may be a slight bias, but at the same time, it's not like I did this for the 2009 Yankees. You never saw Alex Rodriguez on one of these, or Mark Teixeira, or Andy Pettitte or A.J. Burnett. Next year you're not gonna see Cano on here. But those 2000s Phillies teams had so many special, imitable guys that managed to have careers to match. Cole Hamels was one of them. Initially you may not read him as a wall-to-wall all-timer starter, but as many people have written about this year, the definition of the Hall of Fame starter has changed because nobody's starting 35 games a year anymore, nobody's going more than 6 innings and nobody's going as long without an injury as they used to. Cole Hamels is one of the last of that generation of consistent big game pitchers, because from 2007 to 2016, he was one of the most valuable pitchers in the game. During that run, Hamels had a 46.5 WAR, a 3.26 ERA, 1977 strikeouts, 127 games and 7 shutouts, including a no-hitter at Wrigley to cap off his Phillies career. Hamels had 7 postseason wins for the Phillies, including a shutout. and is in the rare breed of player to win NCLS MVP and World Series MVP in the same season. Cole Hamels isn't gonna go in this year, but I do think he has a case, and I think a lot of BBWAA voters have picked up on this as well.

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 20%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 72%

Felix Hernandez:

Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers of the 2010s. His contemporaries are all locks. Kershaw's getting in. Greinke's getting in. Sale is most likely getting in. deGrom might eventually. Felix, when he was on, was better than arguably all of them except for Kershaw. From 2007 to 2015, Hernandez had 127 wins, 1889 Ks and a 3.00 ERA. What a goshdarned run. Dude struck out 200 or more every year from '09 to '14. He won a Cy Young by just not allowing runs, and nearly won another one with a better Mariners team [Kluber kinda deserved it that year though]. The post-30 drop-off is real, but as I'm literally about to discuss, that's not a vote-killer anymore. It's looking like this year has greatly buttressed Felix's case, and he may be only a couple years away. In my opinion it can't come soon enough.

Team of Induction: Seattle Mariners

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 30%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 80%

Andruw Jones:

The other 'we're done kidding ourselves' one this year. Andruw Jones, from 1996 to 2006, was the reason the Braves kept competing and making NLCSs, and the reason why the team didn't completely decay once Jones, Maddux and Glavine got older. You NEED a young guy who can do anything to come up right when your team's getting old, and Jones was that guy. Incredible defensive outfielder, incredible power hitter. In 2005 he had 51 homers and 128 RBIs, and this was after years of 30 homer/100 RBI campaigns. It was, almost like Jose Abreu, the 'cherry on top' season. And yes, it has been established that he completely hit a wall after 30, but the Hall of Fame doesn't seem to mind that anymore. As we're gonna see next year, the HOF can handle a small sample size if what happened during that run was top class, and I think now it's clear Jones was that good. Part of me thinks we needed the full case to develop, cause I certainly didn't think this when he came onto the ballot, but it's great that it's finally happened.

Team of Induction: Atlanta Braves

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 88%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 100%

Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins:

I have grouped these two together because they are both valid HOF cases for almost completely different reasons. Utley was overwhelmingly excellent for a 5 year period and coasted everything else off of that, while Rollins was steadily good for his whole 15 years and was nice enough, and level-headed enough, to let that do all of the work. The biggest argument towards Utley getting in, as of a month ago, is 'you idiots voted in Jeff Kent despite being replacement level for half his career and arguing with the whole league'. Chase Utley's biggest statistical serve is his 2005-2009 run, where he had a cumulative 39.7 WAR, a .301 average, 146 home runs and 875 hits. This was also during his '5 straight All Star Games' run, and the 2008 postseason is right in that range. Jeff Kent was league-leader-tier for a far shorter time than that and he's in now. Utley should be in. So what if he pissed people off? Apparently that's not a dealbreaker anymore. As for Rollins, he was a perennial all-star and gold-glover at SS, won an MVP in 2007 just by showing up everyday and contact-hitting like hell, has 470 career steals and 2455 career hits, and was an important, multifaceted piece of the Phillies for 15 years. He's probably the biggest reach of anybody on this ballot, but he was consistent, versatile and a clubhouse leader. Utley's more likely of the two to get in, but J-Rol should not be slept on.

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

% Chance of 2025 Induction: (Utley) 72% (Rollins) 18%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: (Utley) 100% (Rollins) 45%

That's all I'm doing this year. Buehrle and K-Rod are on the line for me but not enough for 2026. I'm thinking Beltran and Jones are in and Utley will come close but fall just short. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Yankees

 

If the last year or so has taught me anything, it is this: everybody wants to play in New York. They just don't realize it til it's too late that they don't want to play for the Yankees.

In 2024, the Yankees had the biggest star in the game come to them and play beautifully, and then he decided the Mets were respecting him more. This year, Cody Bellinger had an incredible year with the Yankees, and now it's looking like Scott Boras is making a deal very difficult. Devin Williams, Luke Weaver and Clay Holmes are all suiting up for the Mets next year after we seemed to burn our bridges with them. The only people that haven't fled the Bronx have been Paul Blackburn and Amed Rosario. And meanwhile, we gave Caleb Durbin to Milwaukee, gave Michael King a much firmer place to start in San Diego, Drew Thorpe will start for the Sox this year if he's healthy enough, and in a year or two Roc Riggio is gonna hit 40 homers in Coors Field. We're much better at improving other teams than we are at improving our own.

The Yankees still had the third-highest record in baseball this year, delivered an MVP season for Aaron Judge, and was home to several great seasons from a variety of role-players. But that wasn't enough either. The Jays were better than us, and could consistently show up in October. And so here we are, still trying to win a World Series for the first time since Steinbrenner was still alive. Will it happen in 2026? For the low, low price of 199.99, a Yankee championship could be yours..

Austin Wells was the primary choice at catcher this year, as Jose Trevino was flipped to Cincinnati for a strong year of Fernando Cruz. Wellsy has his perks but he's not perfect. In 126 games he hit .219 with 21 homers and 71 RBIs, a very average offensive season. Defensively he was a liability this year. We've gotta do better than 'Wells or Rice' as a catching platoon, man.

2026 Prediction: A colossal improvement. I'm not sure if it'll be enough to become THE guy back there for the next 10 years, but it'll do the trick.

In a year without Gerrit Cole, and in a year where Luis Gil would be out for several months, the last spot in the rotation, behind Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and Clarke Schmidt, went to rookie Will Warren. Warren had some chances in 2024, but was still a risk for a rotation spot right after a championship. Sure enough, Warren was one of two Yankees to make all 33 starts, and went 9-8 with a 4.44 ERA, 171 Ks and 80 earned runs in 162 innings. A little messy, and a bit too many long balls, but the sort of heat that the Yankee fans could get behind.

2026 Prediction: He'll be 27, and he just pitched a full season of high velocity work as a rookie. See ya in 2027. I'd love to be wrong and get another full campaign from him, but I just can't trust pitchers anymore.

Jasson Dominguez spent the entire year in the majors. He is 22 years old, still one of the most promising young players in baseball, and still reaching his full potential. Due to platooning him with Trent Grisham, Dominguez played 123 games, and hit .257 with 10 home runs and 47 RBIs. The moment simply has not come yet. It looked like it was here in 2023, when Dominguez was on fire on a call-up and aided the team before getting hurt, but he's really yet to take charge of an opportunity since then. I'm really worried Boone has given him the Yermin Mercedes effect, where he's been so warped by a manager's tough love that he can't perform to the standard.

2026 Prediction: It all comes down to whether or not the Yanks re-sign Bellinger. Cause if they do, and Grisham still takes seniority, we have another year of this. But if they don't, and Dominguez can start everyday, not only does he have a breakout year and 30 homers, but it's more of an incentive to get Spencer Jones up.

Clarke Schmidt only had 14 games up this year due to injuries, but he looked very good in them. In 79 innings he had a 3.32 ERA, 73 Ks and a 1.7 WAR. Very good use of our time. Sadly he didn't factor much into the team's progress in the second half.

2026 Prediction: Much fuller, healthier year. His free agency is coming up kinda soon, too, so it's about time.

And now, our bullpen, or as they will be known next year, the Mets' bullpen. Luke Weaver's been terrific for us since we turned him into a reliever, and this year he began to wear out his welcome slightly. In 64 games, Weaver had a 3.62 ERA, a 1.021 WHIP and 72 Ks, plus 8 saves as the Yanks went away from an initial closing choice. Granted, that higher ERA is a clue to why we needed bullpen help midyear. Weaver also had a 135.00 ERA in 3 postseason appearances so...yeah

2026 Prediction: Figures his shit out in Queens, becomes an ideal setup man again.

The biggest picture of 'the Yankees as the problem' came from Devin Williams, a sure shot in the ninth that didn't work at all here, despite the team bending the rules to let Williams keep his beard. Williams did not mesh well with this team, and with the moment; in 67 games he had a 4.79 ERA, with only 18 saves and a lot more blown ones. It's important to add that Williams was perfectly fine in an eighth inning role, and his 90 Ks in 62 innings gave us enough pure dominance to be placated by. But we traded Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin for the next great closer, and Williams was not that guy for us, despite everything that said he would be. He was, however, scoreless in 4 postseason innings, even getting a win. 

2026 Prediction: HUGE season in the ninth for the Mets. They'll move on from Edwin Diaz very quickly.

Luis Gil, as he tends to, missed some time with injuries this season, and when he returned you could tell he was still being very careful not to overexert himself. It seemed to work well enough in terms of dominance, as he had a 3.32 ERA, a 4-1 record and a 1 ERA in 11 starts, despite only 41 Ks. Gil needed to just keep balls in play and work carefully, and it seemed to work out, even if his postseason start didn't go especially well.

2026 Prediction: Much better year, much more on target and closer to 2024.

It initially baffled me when the Yankees traded for Amed Rosario, even sacrificing Clayton Beeter to do so, but Rosario became a very helpful utility bat for us. While a later addition would be the defensive version of this, Rosario had some cool power moments, hitting .303 with 10 hits, 5 RBIs and a home run in 16 games. He also had 3 hits and an RBI in 10 postseason at-bats. From the strength of this small sample size, the Yanks kept him on, making Rosario the only person to seem to prefer the Yankees to the Mets this decade.

2026 Prediction: Nowhere near as contact-friendly but he'll have some cool moments late.

Landing David Bednar from the Pirates was a huge move, as it finally gave us an effective closer after the last two had let us down. The man known as the Renegade had a rough start in the Bronx, but, as he had earlier this season, found his footing and became an excellent ninth inning man, with a 2.19 ERA, 4 wins, 35 Ks and 10 saves in 22 appearances. He also had a 1.50 ERA, 9 Ks and 2 saves in 6 postseason innings.

2026 Prediction: 35+ saves, the culmination of his whole career.

Shakier still was Camilo Doval, who'd led the league in saves a couple years ago for the Giants. Doval's control issues got the better of him in New York, and in 22 games he had a 4.82 ERA, plus a 1.607 WHIP. Doval figured some things out by October, and gave up 1 earned run in 3 postseason innings.

2026 Prediction: He just needed to adjust. Becomes a really nice relief asset for us, even if it's not pretty in points.

My personal favorite mid-year Yankee pickup was Jose Caballero, who was leading the AL in saves when we got him from the Rays. Cabby is insanely versatile, can play multiple infield positions, hits for contact and steals bases. We needed a guy like him, even if McMahon was taking most of the reps at 3rd. Cabby was a huge success with the Yanks, hitting .266 in 40 games, with 21 hits, 9 RBIs, 3 homers and 15 steals. He was limited in the postseason, but the fans seem to really like him.

2026 Prediction: If Volpe doesn't figure the big leagues out, Cabby might be a winning everyday shortstop. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it certainly could.

And that was 2025. It was a lot. Lots happened this year, in baseball and in general. I didn't post as much as I wanted. I dunno how often I'll post in 2026, or how often I'll have new cards worth posting about. We'll see where things go, I guess. As it stands, thanks for checking out the blog this year, and I hope you've enjoyed the writing and content. I hope to have near as much to say in the following 12 months, and I hope things are a little happier for all of us.