Canadian Efficiency

Here is an absolutely true fact about the Blue Jays right now: every player who is in a crucial position for the team as a starting player has a WAR of over 1.2. That includes every member of the starting lineup, every member of the team's rotation, the backup catcher, and two backup outfielders. The median WAR among batters is 0.6. The median WAR among those starting pieces is 2.0. Of the statistical Top 12 players on the Blue Jays, the 12th highest WAR belongs to Nathan Lukes, who has a 1.5. This would be the fourth-highest on the White Sox, the eighth highest on the Braves and the third highest on the Rockies.

The Blue Jays are good. Not only that, they've worked it out where basically everyone on the team is good. There are no weak links in the lineup, and you'd have to go to the bullpen to find an area of this team that doesn't look impressive.

That the Jays have built an impressive, consistently productive lineup out of a lot of small pieces is all the more impressive. Ernie Clement was a cheapo free agent signing that became one of the most lethal swiss army pieces of this team. Myles Straw was practically a giveaway from Cleveland who got back to his old tricks and became a fan favorite. Barger and Schneider were organizational also-rans who turned call-ups into big years. Barger has 18 homers already this year, while Schneider's been hot as hell this month. Nathan Lukes was a career minor leaguer in the Rays organization, got a shot as a backup in Toronto and has become a really impressive bench guy. It's very crazy that so many pieces of this team [Straw, Gimenez, Lukes, Clement, now Shane Bieber] were developed by Cleveland only to soar here. 

The Guardians couldn't take down the Yankees by themselves, but several Guardians are now high above the Yanks playing for the Jays. Incredible.

The most impressive turnaround this Jays team was capable of has to be Eric Lauer. Lauer was no slouch as a depth starter with the Brewers, but he hit some injuries and eventually had to recoup some playing time in Korea. This year he comes back with a vengeance and, despite missing playing time early, he's called upon as a starter in Toronto after Bowden Francis gets hurt. Lauer...has been one of the Blue Jays' best pitchers since then. In 14 starts, Lauer has a 3.25 ERA, a 6-2 record and 70 Ks. He's been consistently strong, and a surprising rock in a strong-but-slightly-unstable rotation. Like...it's while that Eric Lauer is more trustworthy than Max Scherzer in this unit. 

The Jays lucked into some easy series' this week, and have their heroes surging. I have no doubt they'll make the playoffs, and they have the momentum to potentially win the AL East. It's really only a matter of if the Sox or Yanks can catch them, and at this juncture that is looking exceedingly difficult.

Coming Tonight: One of the best relievers of his generation. Maybe not one of the best closers though...

Lauer of One

 Last year, the Brewers' rotation was this massive hydra of three unstoppable strikeout artists just mowing anyone down that came before them. A year later, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta have ERAs around 5 despite having 30+ Ks each. So even if Corbin Burnes is still everything he's cracked up to be, things need to be slightly rethought.

Thankfully the Brewers not only have Eric Lauer, but they have Eric Lauer at 2019 levels of dominance. 2019 was Lauer's fullest season as a starter, and though he was let down by the 2019 Padres' run support, he still had 138 strikeouts and 8 wins. Since landing in Milwaukee he's been saddled with injuries, but last year in 24 games he had a 3.19 ERA and a 2.4 WAR. And so far this season, Lauer has been stellar, with a 3-0 record, a 1.82 ERA and 42 Ks. At 27, Lauer fits right into the age range of the rest of the rotation, between 26 and 29. So he's still very similar to pitchers like Burnes and Woodruff, even if he did come over from San Diego. 

The funny thing, though, about the rotation being a little shaky outside of Lauer and Burnes is that the rest of the team isn't exactly suffering because of it. The bullpen's still pretty awesome, with Brad Boxberger, Trevor Gott and Devin Williams working on great seasons, and Josh Hader being lights-out in the ninth. The lineup has really come into its own, with Yelich heating up with 17 RBIs, Tellez and Adames notching back to back player of the week awards, Luis Urias coming off hot off the IL and Hunter Renfroe at the very least still being a trusted power bat. This team still has enough power and surprises to stay atop the NL Central without Andrew McCutchen. 

And with the Cardinals still being after them, that's gonna need to be the goal. The Brewers are awesome this year, they have a very full lineup and a lot of versatility, but so do the Cardinals, and they can catch fire like nobody. The Brewers have been hot until very, very recently, and they need to figure out how to fix the starting pitching issues so they can keep the momentum going and stave off St. Louis. 

Coming Tonight: We all thought he was done. But here he is, with another career season in his 40s.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2021: Brewers

 

I genuinely thought the Brewers had it this year.

The momentum they had stacked up late, the midyear acquisitions, the insane three-headed rotation dragon...all done away by 5 games against the Braves. As good as they were during the season, and as much as they became my W.S. winner pick, the fall may have been inevitable, much as the Giants' and Rays' falls were. 

While the rotation did often come down to Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, there were still other heroes in that rotation. Adrian Houser is honestly one excellent year away from joining that canon, he's just working on his consistency. In 26 starts he had a 3.22 ERA, 10 wins and 105 Ks, certainly nothing to be frowned upon. But several runs separated him from the rest of the pack.

2022 Prediction: One of the big 3 is gonna be out of commission for a bit, and Houser will step up and have his best season yet.

You also had another year of Brett Anderson, who's still a solid arm this far into his career. Despite injuries shortening things, Anderson still had a 4.22 ERA in 24 starts. The issue is, though, that he's not striking as many people out, and he's giving up more runs than he used to. With a lot of youth and efficiency in this rotation, Anderson still feels like the odd man out.

2022 Prediction: Cheap signing somewhere out of the question to finish off his career. Maybe even waived by a contender.

And after some very disappointing starts in 2020, Eric Lauer finally touched some of his Padres-era power, with a 3.19 ERA and 117 Ks in 20 starts. He was also pretty decent in a postseason start. The big takeaway is that Lauer, at 26, still has a ton of potential left, and can still be a useful late-rotation piece for the Brewers

2022 Prediction: Lauer keeps climbing, and has an even better year with a fuller range of starts.

One of the very last signings before the 2021 season began was Jackie Bradley Jr., because as amazing as he's been as a defender, the man hasn't been able to make it work at the plate. This year, Bradley had a 12 fWAR variable, but it was sullied by a NEGATIVE 34 BATTING VARIABLE. That is what we're dealing with here. As good of a match Bradley is for LoCain and Yelich in the outfield, he was a detriment to the Milwaukee lineup. Bloom landing him back in Boston in exchange for Hunter Renfroe is a move that benefits both parties. 

2022 Prediction: The Red Sox will not start JBJ, but he'll still be an excellent defensive substitution and bench piece. Verdugo, Hernandez, and the inevitable outfield bat they sign will be good enough.

Speaking of one-dimensional players, the Brewers' frustrations with Dan Vogelbach hit fever pitch in 2021, as even if he was their designated starting 1st baseman after Hiura's demotion, he only hit .219 with 8 homers in those 93 games. No wonder they needed Rowdy Tellez, who can do Vogey's job without the sharp inefficiency.

2022 Prediction: Bench bat somewhere. 

The resident surprise backup infield piece in 2021 was Jace Peterson, former Braves youngster. Peterson did a fairly decent job backing up Kolten Wong, and managed to hit .247 with 31 RBIs. Peterson has become a safe bet as ute in Milwaukee, and the team seems to like keeping him around. I'm glad the guy's found a niche.

2022 Prediction: More of the same kind of work, just with a bit more pop at bat.

And one relief piece I didn't get to during the season, mostly due to Devin Williams and Josh Hader existing, was former Rays one-year-wonder Brad Boxberger, far from his closing duties. In 71 games he had a 3.34 ERA, 83 Ks and even 4 saves. Boxberger has become a perfectly strong middle reliever, and similar to Steve Cishek, he's developed career longevity after losing a closing opportunity. 

2022 Prediction: Someone picks him up with the idea of giving him the ninth, and he rewards them.

Tomorrow, several players from the Cardinals. Many of them are very old.

On the Intriguing Brewers-Padres Multi-Man Trade

Funny, I was just talking about the Brewers and Padres' new uniforms, and now they're doing business together.

The interesting part of this deal is that it comes on the heels of an initial move between these teams- Drew Pomeranz, who finished the season in relief for Milwaukee, signs with San Diego. And then this swap happens, and it just looks like Pomeranz was just involved in the trade. It was just cleanly executed.

The actual deal is, on paper, kind of a simple one- mid-tier starters traded for each other, Zach Davies for Eric Lauer. And rookie-level position players that don't have a spot in the 2020 picture traded for each other, Trent Grisham for Luis Urias. Both teams are kinda even at the end of the day, and no team feels like they're fleecing the other.

Honestly, the biggest piece of this deal, at least to me, is Zach Davies. Dude's been a solid starter for Milwaukee since before the come-up, and had a pretty good season in 2019, with a 3.55 ERA and 10 wins. I definitely foresee Davies becoming a big SD pitching asset, right there with Chris Paddack. Lauer will probably be a lower-key rotation guy for Milwaukee, and I'm guessing they're gonna make a major free agent move in that department.

The intriguing stuff is in the other two guys. Luis Urias is a high-caliber defensive performer, and can definitely be an upgrade from Orlando Arcia, who...might be finding his way to a bench spot. Urias does concern me in that he hasn't been hitting extremely well of late, but his fielding numbers are a lot better, and he had a 1.0 WAR in 71 games, which is...something.

And then there's Lewis Grisham, who was a great replacement for Yelich towards the end of the season, despite a defensive blooper costing the Brewers a crucial game. Grisham could factor into the Padres' outfield, despite a chance for Taylor Trammell to get in on the chase. It's looking like Wil Myers, Manny Margot and Hunter Renfroe are the main players for that outfield, but seeing as none hit over .250 last year, a shuffle may be in the mix. So having Grisham as a steady young option could definitely help.

I'm kinda surprised as to how well all of this fit together, and am very impressed at both GMs who pulled this off. Padres might have gotten the best pitcher, but Brewers got the best lineup piece.

Padres Update: If That Didn't Work, Nothing Will Edition

[loud sigh]

So let's dissect this.

Manny Machado, in his first year in San Diego, had a 3.0 WAR with 30 home runs, 82 RBIs and 150 hits. And despite that, the Padres still didn't make the frigging playoffs.

Perhaps this is because this team has problems Manny Machado cannot solve. Their rotation this year was made up entirely of rookies and second-years, which sounds like it could work, but most of them wound up with negative win percentages and bloated ERAs. Only in September did they get a veteran rotation presence, and it was Garrett Richards in a few late starts...and they're not great.

And the core is made up of people like Hunter Renfroe, Manny Margot, Wil Myers, Austin Hedges and Eric Hosmer, who look good in spurts but can't hit for average. And you get people like Greg Garcia, Francisco Mejia and Nick Martini, who try to help but fall victim to the madness themselves.

The biggest takeaway from the 2019 season for the Padres may still be Fernando Tatis Jr., who had an insane rookie year, and may still win Rookie of the Year despite a truncated season. If they keep people like Tatis and Machado, and possibly trash everyone else and build the team around them...they could potentially make a run at things. It just may take a few more years.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the last remaining 2016 Blue Jays...who will probably be gone in a year.