Puzzlingly Warming the Stove

 

Well. Primitive of me to assume the offseason can ever start gradually. It's never a subtle, slow burn. Always just a bang. Josh Naylor re-signed with Seattle the other day, the qualifying offers went through today, and now I suppose it's on. Cause the O's and Angels just did something pretty crazy.

Okay, let's see here. Taylor Ward is one of the longest-tenured Angels aside from Mike Trout, he's okay on defense but his power ceiling's very high, and he just had his biggest year at the plate with 36 homers and 103 RBIs. This is the kind of year the Orioles would deal away someone for having, not deal for. Ward is gonna be 32, he's been healthy the past two seasons, and is still definitely a suitable lineup piece. Therefore, the Orioles trading for him is a very big move to adorn their still-young lineup with a veteran presence. 

Next year, the Orioles will be relying on Samuel Basallo, Dylan Beavers, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holiday, Jeremiah Jackson and possibly even Adley Rutschman if they decide to keep him. That's a stacked roster, but it's also very young. A Taylor Ward type is a very good add-on, and one that could lead to a surprise Trumbo-in-2016 or Cruz-in-2014 type success. So I like this move from the O's perspective, just on the grounds that the Orioles need a bat like Ward, and he's better off there than in Anaheim.

However...I'm not quite sure about what they gave up for him.

So. Going into 2026, the Orioles' rotation is looking like it'll be some combination of Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Cade Povich if he decides to show up. Eflin and Sugano have left in free agency. It's not a deep bench, and four members of it have recently missed large swaths of time due to injury, leaving the only actual proven consistent guy for 2026 as...Dean Kremer. And I'd like to remind you that the Orioles do plan on competing next year. So even if Rogers, Bradish, Wells and Povich do manage to figure out A.) how not to get hurt and B.) how not to entirely shit the bed given the opportunity, looking at you Cade, that's not the kind of rotation that strikes fear into the heart of competitors. That's assuming Trevor Rogers plays like he did this year, Kyle Bradish plays like he did in 2023, and Tyler Wells plays like he's done in partial seasons. All at the same time for at least 32 games. You're probably understanding why I'm concerned.

The Orioles were going to get Grayson Rodriguez back next year after missing 2025 with arm surgery. And they just traded him to Anaheim. 

Now. MAYBE. Possibly. Mike Elias has something else up his sleeve in regards to bringing in starting talent. I really want to believe this. I'm also hesitant, because when he gives the idea that he's going to do this, all he brings in is a year of Tomoyuki Sugano, and a year of Charlie Morton. That's not trending upwards, that's treading water. In 2024, this rotation had Corbin Burnes. Now it doesn't even have Grayson Rodriguez. So I really hope he's got some other ideas on how to repopulate the rotation. There's guys out here who can make this look more impressive. Because if he doesn't, and Bradish, Wells and Rogers all go down again and all they can muster is Brandon Young, George Soriano and a barrel of hammers, he isn't allowed to play the 'well we triiiiiiied and it's haaaaaard' game. If you don't want to run a baseball club's roster, pick another vocation. 

Grayson Rodriguez will probably be fine for the Angels. I sincerely hope he's able to stay healthy there, because if he does he'll finally reach the potential he was [sigh] supposed to with Baltimore. Yeah, remember that? Around the same time as Rutschman, Henderson and Holliday were big prospects, Grayson Rodriguez was talked about in the same breath. His MLB material, especially in 2024, was worth it. I was in Baltimore this year, getting in early enough to see people walking home from a game, and they were carrying Grayson Rodriguez bobbleheads. It was his bobblehead day. Injured, yes, but he got one. Because there was that much promise. And to throw that away, even when you NEED a guy like him to keep the rotation in any way suitable...that's suspect.

Who knows, maybe this works out and Elias is a genius. I just have a funny feeling that they're gonna regret paring down the rotation shelf. Unless the return for Adley is an Opening Day rotation guy [or two], I'm gonna be baffled by them parting with Rodriguez for a little bit, Ward and all.

Arm City

 

It's weird that, even without John Means, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer, the Orioles still have a very intimidating rotation. And that's not because Albert Suarez just gave every Yankee fan in America a heart attack last night.

This is the kind of pitching depth the Orioles had been waiting to build for years. Once Means came up, he was supposed to be the start of something. Him not staying healthy enough to see it is another thing entirely, but without him, we don't get Kremer, Wells, Bruce Zimmermann, Grayson Rodriguez and Bradish coming in and making something count. 

And so now we're at the point where the Orioles have such an expansive homegrown pitching core that they can take on extraneous reinforcements. Hence Suarez, who nobody can really hit right now, thought the Yanks certainly got to him last night. And now Cade Povich, who came over in the Jorge Lopez deal [which has taken on a new meaning now], has been wonderful in his first two starts of the season, with his second start being a scoreless, dominant affair against the Braves. That this sort of b-team, which also includes Cole Irvin, who's also been wonderful this year, has been keeping things together in Baltimore this year is very reassuring.

Also reassuring is the quality of the top two guys, which has stayed unmoved all year. Obviously Corbin Burnes was an 'exactly what it says on the tin' type acquisition; you get Burnes, he's gonna be hard to hit. So far he's 8-2 with a 2.14 ERA and 89 Ks in 15 starts, which is pretty incredible, even by his standards. Undoubtedly he'll be making an All-Star team, and hopefully Rubenstein will ensure that it's the first of many. And then you have Grayson Rodriguez, primed for long term success this year. In 12 starts, he's been 8-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 77 strikeouts, and he's finally proving his MLB durability after years of being a top prospect. Last year was shakier, but the bones were there, and now Rodriguez is as trustworthy as they all thought he'd be.

The Orioles so far have matched up decently against the Yankees, though New York getting the edge in game 1 came down to superior offense and superior starting pitching. But that's subject to change, considering Povich and Irvin will get chances against Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil later on this week. And while the Yanks neutralized Gunnar Henderson in Game 1, with the fire that's now building between these two, who knows if he'll stay dormant this series.

Yanks-O's is fun again, after years of being lopsided, and I'm very much here for it. Just maybe cut back on the whole 'eye for an eye' thing please.

Coming Tonight: He's closed for many teams, but they've all been teams that wear red. And this is only the latest. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Orioles

 

Last year, I had a feeling about the Orioles. The AL East was still a four-man race, and the O's had perpetually been the fifth man in the equation. And then last year, Adley Rutschman was MLB-ready, the outfield was awesome, the young pitchers were getting there, and Gunnar Henderson was just proving himself by the time things wrapped up. I figured if they made the right moves and the kids were all they were cracked up to be, they had a chance of competing in 2023.

Sure enough, the Orioles finished the season in 1st place, defying the Rays and their unstoppable April, and finishing with 100 wins or more for the first time since 1980. Did it amount to any postseason glory? Not really, no. But that's because the O's made the mistake of...uh...being one of the top 2 teams in the AL. 

This team has a lot to be proud of. Ramon Urias, one of the guys who's seen this team grow around him, had another strong year at the corner, with some impressive play at third, in addition to hitting .264 with 42 RBI and 95 hits. What's going to be tough going forward is that Urias is now seeing competition from several young infielders, and while he's an excellent defensive option, some of these other guys are a bit more well-rounded.

2024 Prediction: In his age-30 year, improves mightily at the plate and gives the Orioles some reason to start him more often.

Meanwhile, Jorge Mateo, coming off a season with a league-leading 35-steals [tame in comparison], cooled down significantly. When Mateo does less defensively, and on the base paths, his true flaws, his hitting, become more evident. While Mateo still stole 32 bases, he hit .217, delivering lackluster numbers that led to Henderson taking the position full-time towards the end of the season.

2024 Prediction: I hate to say it, but Mateo might be looking at a utility role full-time next year, and if his stolen bases go down even further, they'll be out of uses for him. 

Grayson Rodriguez, in his first full season in the majors, got a ton of opportunities to prove his worth after years of deadly minor league work. Things didn't start out perfectly, but after some time to retool he ended the year with a much better second half, with a 2.58 ERA, a 5-2 record and 73 Ks in 13 games. This is the kind of stuff the Orioles have been waiting for from Rodriguez, and despite getting lit up by the eventual World Series champions in October, the team still has a ton of confidence in him.

2024 Prediction: Finally rises above Bradish and Kremer to take the head of the rotation.

A few truly shocking developments in regards to hitting additions midyear. Ryan O'Hearn was a longtime Kansas City DH who was dropped due to, well, not hitting. So the O's brought him on quietly, and somehow this was the right fit for O'Hearn. In 112 games, he hit .289 with 14 home runs and 60 RBIs, which are some nice power numbers for a former one-dimensional power guy.

2024 Prediction: Either the O's fixed him for good or he goes back to what he was doing before. I'm thinking it'll be a tougher year for him now that the pressure's on, but he could do some damage, though likely in a bench role.

Then, after he burned all of his bridges in New York, Aaron Hicks found his way in Baltimore, and wound up as an extra OF bat around June. In 65 games for the O's, Hicks hit .275 with 7 homers and 35 RBIs, similar to his old bench outfielder stuff in the late 2010s. I think he just needed the pressure off, and while he did come down a few pegs from when he debuted in Baltimore, he was a nice extra piece this team didn't know they needed.

2024 Prediction: How the hell do you predict anything Aaron Hicks does anymore. The man lives to defy expectations. I say he's a bench guy for Oakland or something, but watch him hit 30 homers for Atlanta or some shit. 

The next step in the slow roll of the youth movement was bringing up infielder Jordan Westberg, who will likely be covering 2nd base full time soon enough. Westburg hit .260 with 23 RBIs in 68 games, and was 2 for 9 in the postseason. After a few straight seasons of getting rent-a-guys to fill 2nd, Westburg could be what they need.

2024 Prediction: Not a flashy season, but an efficient one, and enough to cement him as a mainstay going forward. 

At the time, I called Jack Flaherty going to Baltimore the best move of the trade deadline, because it gave them the ace they had been so desperately missing in Means' absence. Of course, Flaherty got the ball and reverted to his old, flighty self, and in 9 games he had a 6.75 ERA, a 1-3 record and a 1.675 WHIP. Clearly not what the O's wanted.

2024 Prediction: Not a very reassuring year in Detroit. Guys, we might have our new answer to Matt Morris.

And so, after Flaherty failed to fill the ace role that John Means had left, the O's turned...to John Means. After being injured the last few years, Means finally looked ready to return to the head of the table. For four games, Means was electric, with a 2.66 ERA, and a 0.718 ERA. Then...he got hurt again. And if the Orioles didn't have Kyle Bradish to comfortably stay at the top of the rotation, they'd be a lot worse off.

2024 Prediction: I really hope he's healthier next year than he was in the last 3. Cause if not, they might have to say goodbye to Means.

Coming Tomorrow- A Padres team that only got good towards the end, and now we may have the reason why.