Expressly Ryan

 

For the first 19 games of the season, you could describe the Twins as 'better than anyone thought they could be'. They were 11-8, having big games against tough pitchers like Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet, and getting production out of a noticeably slimmer lineup. Since then, however, the Twins have only won once, and that was against the Mets right before they ended their streak. 

So what was it that allowed the Twins to propel past the Tigers and Jays in early April before struggling against the Mets and Rays in late April? No one is quite sure. Some people have theorized there's some sort of Target Field advantage that allows the team to figure out great pitchers, either a tell or a full cheating thing. We may not know about that til they make it back home tomorrow against the Mariners. Yet that doesn't explain why the Reds came to Minneapolis and swept them cleanly, and that's a team that has Andrew Abbott and Brady Singer, two easy-to-exploit starters. 

I think the main truth is that the Twins simply aren't great this year, and as things have evened out it's all been confirmed.

I root this argument back to Josh Bell. Josh Bell is a strange case, because he only seems to succeed when playing for bad teams. The second he's traded to a good team, like the 2022 Padres or the 2023 Marlins, his bat stops working. But when the pressure is off he springs into action. Last year, on a completely meaningless Nationals team, Bell became a viable power DH again, hitting 23 homers and 63 RBIs. The Twins took a gamble, and so far he's hitting .244 with 3 homers and 16 RBIs. Not immaculate, but decent production for a team without a ton of real success. It stands out more when the foundational guys, like Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis, simply aren't producing many runs. Someone like Austin Martin, amazingly hitting .300 with only 6 RBIs, should not be so valuable to a team's success.

At the very least, the Twins, for the time being, still have Joe Ryan, who's a very good starting option. Through 6 starts he's got a 1.021 WHIP, a 3.90 ERA and 33 Ks. He's very much at the mercy of the run support on many occasions, but he's still the staff ace and he's still a great guy to have around. It's very promising, though, that this team also has Taj Bradley, Bailey Ober, Mick Abel and, if his first start is anything to go by, Connor Prielipp, to rest on if anything were to happen around, say, July. Bradley in particular is looking better than he ever has on a mound. Who knew there'd be someone that wouldn't succeed until AFTER they left Tampa. Besides Joe Ryan of course.

The Twins now at least still strive to outdo expectations, and I think, if April is anything to go by, they're still capable of big games. I just don't think it's the norm for this team. I don't really think they have it in them.

Coming Tomorrow- There's a lot of teams that don't have anybody left from 2022, let alone 2018, but this guy has been on the Cubs since before they crumpled-and-tossed. And now he's helping them compete again. Gotta feel amazing for the guy.

Joe Ryan's Belt

 

I dunno what to tell you with the Twins. You can tell they really try, they really put a lot of people in position to succeed, and something always goes wrong. Carlos Correa, as talented as he is, is wildly inconsistent. Byron Buxton is terrific but never stays healthy. Same with Royce Lewis. They already had a potential foundational offensive talent literally retire on account of being unable to stay healthy. Something about this team is seriously snakebitten, which makes the fact that they actually won a playoff series a few years ago all the more heartbreaking. They were the ones to finally snap the whole city's curse, and yet they still remain cursed themselves.

The real curse this season has just been the ineptitude. Not a lot of injured pieces, just a lot of very blah ones. I will never not be confused by Matt Wallner, who's such a gifted athlete and terrific outfielder, just refusing to really accomplish much. Through a month, Wallner has, through 57 at-bats, 3 RBIs and 1 home run. And yet because he does so many other things well, he has a 0.7 WAR already. Because he's good at contact stuff, he has good value, but...again, what has he done?? For comparisons sake, Ty France,  who has 17 RBIs and is hitting .248, has a 0.1 WAR. I don't really understand a lot of statistical categories they use, and I do get that France is replacement level and Wallner is a proven starter, but Matt Wallner just hasn't accomplished enough, in my eyes, to warrant such a statistical boost. Like, Luke Keaschall was really helping this team, he was hitting .368, he stole 5 bases. Him getting injured immediately, that hurts the team. That's an impact. I don't get Wallner's impact yet. 

Joe Ryan's appeal I do get, though. In the past few seasons, Ryan has been the Twins' best pitcher. He was hurt a little last year, but when he was healthy he was really strong. So far this season he's been equally impressive, with a 3.18 ERA and 39 Ks. Even in this more frustrating, offensively-duller season, having surefire guys like Ryan and Lopez keep you from falling into last. Not that there'd be too much danger of that this year, as the White Sox do exist, but the Twins, despite the recent spike, have been rocked a bit this year. Ryan, Lopez, Ober and now David Festa have provided really strong innings for this team, and give a bit of hope that when things turn around [which looks likely this week], they'll be alright ultimately.

The Twins are gonna keep confusing me, because it's not as obvious as like 2019 where the heart of the team is, if it's with power or defense or whatever. With the Tigers and Guardians, and I suppose the Royals, the Twins need to find that hook and figure out how they can outlast the competition, because if not it may be Baldelli's ass this year.

Coming Tomorrow- One of many truly excellent defenders in Milwaukee. 

Racking Up Twins

 

Right when everyone counted them out, the Minnesota Twins embarked on a 12-game winning streak, and are now 20-15 with a handle on 2nd place and a whole new set of eyes upon them. And the weird thing is that there wasn't a lot of major developments in this stretch that spurned it on. If anything, the major development is losing Byron Buxton, which, like Royce Lewis, just keeps happening no matter how they try to prevent it.

All that's really progressed is just a solid backbone that just won't let up. This year doesn't even have an OMG start from Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, which is what 2023 started with. Lopez has a 4.30 ERA, Ryan's 1-2. But they have 45 and 46 Ks respectively, and they're both still capable of being dominant. One of the major pitching developments of this winning streak has been the arrival of Simeon Woods-Richardson, one of the reasons for the smaller lettering if you were to ask Fanatics. Woods-Richardson has finally found his control in the majors, and has a 1.74 ERA and 21 Ks in his first four starts. None of these starters have a WHIP below one, nobody's pulling full dominance like even Skubal or Lugo, in terms of competitors. They're just steady. 

And steadiness has been getting the job done, because without the marquee hero in Buxton, or even a standout performer other than a momentary type, this team is still winning games. You're seeing contact production from unlikely sources, guys like Jose Miranda and Willi Castro, and power production from people you weren't sure could hit for power, like Edouard Julien and his 7 homers. Ryan Jeffers is still the best hitter on the team, but we're seeing Kepler and Correa begin to heat up, and Larnach pop right back into things. I still think there's a lot of pieces that don't work, and a lot of that owes to replacements for injured players, but this team seems like it's on the same page.

Now...the thing that nobody wants to talk about regarding the streak is that all the wins were against the White Sox, Angels and Red Sox. Like the Pirates' big April run, the wins didn't come against 1st place teams, or even especially competitive teams. Even the Sox went toe to toe with them after the 12th win. There's a chance that the Twins don't have it this good again, and may level out when faced with tougher scheduling blocks. And given my concern with the lack of a central titan at the moment, that could happen. The current series against the Mariners seems somewhat evenly matched, and they scored a few runs off a Seattle starter yesterday, which seems very hard to do this season, but the Jays and Yankees are up next, and those will be the true test. Seeing as the Jays just ended the Phillies' streak, they could be trouble.

The Twins, ultimately, have shown they have more complexity and unity than previously thought, and could still get a lot done this season if this streak is to be believed. It just takes them reacting like this towards better teams as well.

Coming Tomorrow- The idea was for there to be a rotation of young, strong homegrown arms built around this guy, and thankfully that's happened. 

Defeat at Joe's

 

Yes, the Twins may be the weakest 1st place team out there right now, but that does not make them a bad team. Not with the amount of great pitching performances they're getting right now.

It's actually pretty cathartic, because when I was down in Spring Training a few months ago, I got to see a bunch of Twins pitchers taking drills, and that is a pretty stacked bunch of arms. There were people like Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Cole Sanda, Jorge Alcala I think and Louie Varland just cavorting around and taking drills. Even if these weren't, like, the name pitchers, like Lopez or Gray or Ryan, they were very good looking players, and big as hell. You see people like that warming up and you think, well either they make something of themselves after all this prep or they don't. And sure enough, in three starts so far Bailey Ober has a 0.98 ERA and 2 wins, so it turns out that they're just that good.

Sonny Gray's still having an excellent season, Pablo Lopez is still as strong as he was in Miami, and though he's gonna miss a few months, Tyler Mahle was handing in great stuff before the injury. I still think the most intriguing case in this rotation is Joe Ryan, a guy the Rays gave up for Nelson Cruz and went on to find himself immediately in Minneapolis. Ryan, so far, is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 47 Ks, and he's begun the season with a 1.6 WAR. Despite missing a few games last season, Ryan has been one of the Twins' most consistent pitchers since coming over here, throws hard but not hard enough to scare team medics, and has yet to have a truly torrid season. The Twins needed a guy like him after losing so many homegrown arms, and he's been just as steady as they've wanted him to be. I know Sonny Gray is the guy they're talking about right now, but if Gray evens out, I do think Ryan will have the bigger and more consistent year of anyone on this team, and it may do his future value some wonders.

With all the great pitchers aiding this team, including relievers like Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez and Griffin Jax, it's a pity that so many members of this lineup aren't hitting. Trevor Larnach had a nice start but is now back in AAA. Carlos Correa's hitting below the Mendoza line in his first year on the new contract. Vazquez, after a strong start, went very cold all of the sudden. Really only Buxton and Kepler are doing impressive things right now, and it should be more than that. And, yes, Joey Gallo is hitting for power, but his average is worse than Correa's. It's not looking great, even if the pitching is saving the day a lot.

The Twins' lineup holding them back is something I do worry about, but with the Guardians and Tigers both having slip-ups of their own, there's enough of a margin of error that they should be alright for now. It'd just be nice if this once-power-friendly team could start hitting a little more consistently.

Coming Tonight: A guy who's been a consistent power guy for a team that is clinging hopelessly to their April start.

The Twins vs. The Middle

 

The most confounding thing about these Twins teams, really from Molitor on, is their absolute inability to be middle of the road. This team is either in first place or contending or in last place or well under .500. There is no 'well they're kinda okay' with this team. This team has gone from worst to first and then back again, and now they're in first again. And if you'll recall, this is a team that famously went from last place to a World Series in 1991 under Tom Kelly. I'm not saying Rocco Baldelli is as good as Tom Kelly, but Baldelli's teams have withstood now a major drop to last, only to reform and take 1st against the White Sox and Guardians.

Like, just this year, the Twins have brought up Juan Miranda, Royce Lewis, Josh Winder and now Mark Contreras. Not like the A's and Reds have been bringing up people, as a kind of 'save us now' measure, but to supplement the core. Kepler, Correa, Buxton and Polanco are a strong core, and these kids are helping. Lewis is batting .300 in 10 plate appearances, and will fill in mightily for Carlos Correa as he hits the IL. Jose Miranda isn't completely acclimated to MLB play yet but his bat does have some promise. And Josh Winder has won both his first two starts, with a 1.61 ERA and 20 Ks.

But the biggest step forward for the Twins, as opposed to the older incarnation of the team that got dealt last year, is Joe Ryan. The former Rays farmhand has been strong ever since landing in Minneapolis, and so far this season he's gone 3-1 with a 1.63 ERA and 28 Ks, as well as an 0.831 WHIP. Ryan has a ton of control, a ton of firepower, and he's been a steady presence in the rotation ever since coming from nowhere to start Opening Day. Though the rotation is dealing with a bunch of injuries right now, Ryan heads up a squad that includes Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Josh Winder and Griffin Jax, and pretty much all of them are on right now. Not only is Chris Archer pitching pretty well, but he's healthy. I'm as shocked as you are.

Like last year, there's a ton less fixation on the 'bomba' than usual. Professional home run hitters Gary Sanchez and Miguel Sano are responsible for 4 homers altogether. Only Max Kepler and Byron Buxton have more than 5 homers. Really, the trick is in the RBIs and contact hitting, and Buxton can do a lot of that. So there's a lot of varied play, and a lot of more interesting hitting going on. Smarter baseball. I dig it.

I do hope the Twins can keep this momentum going, as we all know the White Sox are gonna catch fire eventually, and hopefully the injuries the Twins have run into won't keep them down for too long.

Coming Tomorrow- A strong starting pitcher for the Brewers, and it's not even one of the three that dominated last season.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2021: Twins

 

Nobody does worst to first, and back, quite like the Minnesota Twins.

I mean, they did it famously in 1991, going from last to a World Series. They did it in 2011 after a pair of division wins. They did it in the late 2010s, going from a joke to a contender. And now, after a playoff appearance in 2020, they ended the year in last place, with a lot of dead weight, and a lot of question marks.

In the absence of Mitch Garver for most of 2021 due to injuries, 2020 rookie Ryan Jeffers became the primary starting catcher for the Twins this year. In 85 games he had 14 homers and hit .199, with decent enough defensive numbers.

2022 Prediction: Something keeps telling me the Twins are gonna try to trade Mitch Garver this offseason, so I reckon Jeffers is gonna get even more starting time in 2022.

The other rookie who became a starting piece this year was Trevor Larnach. Like Rooker, Larnach's stats weren't HUGE- he only had 58 hits and 28 RBIs in 79 games, but he had a few big-game moments, especially in June, where he shifted into the main core of the youth movement.

2022 Prediction: With a slightly sparser lineup, Larnach is gonna become a under-the-radar favorite that will get stronger as more people leave. 

The big rookie prospect going into the season was Alex Kirilloff, especially after a brief appearance during the 2020 postseason. Kirlloff flirted with big-league greatness, hitting .251 with 8 homers and 34 RBIs in 51 games, but in a crowded outfield schematic, he spent some of 2021 in the minors as well.

2022 Prediction: The big statement season. I think he laps Larnach for a starting spot and starts getting some traction as Twins hero.

Willians Astudillo continued to be one of my favorite unsung heroes whose team has no idea how to use him. In 72 games, La Tortuga hit .236 with 7 homers and 21 RBIs, including a few big clutch hits along the way, but with most positions full, and with Astudillo not exactly known for his defense, he mostly spent the year as a bench bat.

2022 Prediction: Will sneak onto someone's roster and be a force at some point.

Another long-gestating rookie prospect was Nick Gordon, Tom's kid and Dee's step-brother, who was a decent name in the minors for the Twins in the last few years. Unlike his brother, Nick seems to be more of a power hitter, and hit .240 with 23 RBIs and more strikeouts than hits. 

2022 Prediction: Similar swing OF position with some replacement perks down the stretch.

As far as pitching is concerned, one of the big letdowns of 2021 was Alex Colome in Minnesota. After some strong work in Chicago, Colome buckled under the weaker roster, and only had 17 saves, with a 4.15 ERA, in 67 appearances. 

2022 Prediction: Will be picked up as a reliever, not necessarily as a closer. Which isn't to say he won't work the ninth once or twice next year, just...his time of being an elite closer might be over.

As for the rotation helpers, Bailey Ober came into the equation in June and was a decent young starter, with a 4.19 ERA and 96 Ks in 20 games. It was hard for him to really establish himself positively in the shadow of Berrios and Maeda, but he did as good of a job as any, I reckon.

2022 Prediction: Ober will be the second man behind Kenta Maeda, and may eventually have to act as makeshift ace. I'm expecting Scott Baker-esque numbers- good for a barren rotation, but maybe not a league-wide talent yet.

Meanwhile, as sad as the departure of Nelson Cruz was, the Twins still got a decent return in Joe Ryan, the longtime Rays farmhand. In his first taste of the bigs, Ryan wowed crowds, with a 4.05 ERA, 30 Ks, a 0.788 WHIP and 2 wins in 5 starts. It was a big exclamation point to end the very blah year with.

2022 Prediction: Will win a rotation spot over Griffin Jax and will have similar strikeout numbers with a few more human moments. 

Tomorrow, a few extra customs for the White Sox team that almost made it.