The Six-Man Formation

 

In 2024, the Mariners had Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo healthy and thriving, Bryan Woo activated midyear and surging, and Emerson Hancock hanging around not pitching well. In 2025, Gilbert, Kirby and Miller were tired, with Miller showing up late for some terrific postseason starts, Castillo was healthy all year, Woo was healthy all year, and Hancock was once again shaky. So now, this year...everybody's healthy. Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, Castillo, Miller and Hancock, all healthy, all aiding the team. Which means we've got a six man rotation where virtually any of them can be relied upon for a great start...in addition to an offense that isn't afraid to go nuts. It may not show immediately because of their rough June, but...the Mariners have more going on than usual right now.

Right now it's really only Castillo who's having a poor year, and even then it'll still come with an occasional dominant start that's vintage Castillo. He's still 33 and a little worse for wear but at the end of the day he's still Luis Castillo. Everybody else is on point. Logan Gilbert is once again coming off like a true ace, with a 1.010 WHIP, a 3.42 ERA, 107 Ks and a 2.2 WAR. The dominance that has kept him at the forefront of this team has persisted, and Gilbert is still one of the most consistent pitching forces in the league. Getting to see what 'good' Emerson Hancock looks like has also been a highlight of this season, and he's got a 3.47 ERA with 87 Ks. Bryce Miller has been excellent since coming off the IL, he has a 1.97 ERA, a 0.723 WHIP and a 1.9 WAR in 8 games. This is exactly what he was doing in the playoffs last year, and it's all he's after now. Woo and Kirby have been a little more pedestrian but they're still steady, reliable options that just have higher ERAs than expected. But nobody's getting pushed out there to eat innings, it's not a 'draw straws' kind of rotation like Colorado's. That's why there's six guys in that rotation, they're all excellent and even if Castillo has to do long relief every so often, he can still swing back in and dominate from the jump.

The team itself however has been struggling of late, and are currently fighting to stay atop the AL West thanks to both a rough couple weeks and a recent surge from the Rangers. They've lost a lot of series' against people they could have beaten, teams like the Orioles, Nationals, Red Sox, Guardians and Pirates. Not only is Josh Naylor not really hitting that well, but he's beginning to get a poor reputation. This after he brought so much joy to this fanbase last year is a very sharp turn of events. Luke Raley and J.P. Crawford had nice starts but have both gone very cold. And Cal Raleigh...he's still not hitting, and the worry that he hit his ceiling last year is about to emerge. Or maybe the fear that they traded away Harry Ford prematurely.

I still think the Mariners are the best team in this division, and they still have the leverage even if the Rangers threaten from behind. Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Cole Young and Logan Gilbert are all at the top of their games, and the Rangers don't have near as much going for them at the moment. We'll see what happens after the ASG break.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy with a very good chance of starting the All-Star Game at 1st for the NL for...well, certainly not the first time. 

Division Series Day 4: Hope???

 

I have already accepted the possibility that both my teams could go down in this round. It's very likely. The Phillies aren't playing well at all, and the Yanks still have the odds against them. If that happens, I'm very surely going to root for the Mariners all the way. Several reasons behind that. My uncle's a lifelong Ms fan, it's a hard luck club that's never been to a World Series, and it was cemented by this game because MAN this team is awesome. 

When J.P. Crawford can break a tie with a homer...that's how you know this team is different. When Logan Gilbert finally clicks into place after struggling most of the year. When the game is sealed with yet another Raleigh homer. There's something infectious about this team, and given the right momentum, which they're clearly gaining, they could do something incredible this year. I'm honestly hear for it. Not that the Tigers winning wouldn't be exciting, but the M's are just the better team, and they clearly deserve it more.

Still not a runaway, and the Tigers could come roaring back in Game 4 like they did in the ninth, but I'm very much behind Seattle at this point.

As for the other guys who won tonight? I have no idea how it happened. I was half-expecting to eulogize them tonight. The way Vladdie got ahead of us again, the way the umps wasted our challenges. It just looked like it wasn't gonna happen. After the 4-run third, my dad gave up. 

...meaning he missed the comeback. Oh man, I don't know what he's gonna think when he hears.

With Bieber not 100%, we were always a threat to come back. With the Jays bullpen as flighty as it's been, we were always gonna chip away. We just needed the right timing. And tonight, Aaron Judge had the right timing. He's been very good at the plate this postseason, but the long ball hadn't shown up yet. Tonight it did. A massive 3-run bomb that tied the game and cemented the comeback. It was everything I'd dreamed of, and it was absolutely huge. Louie Varland may never live that down. And then the runs kept coming, with Chisholm, Wells and Rice adding to the fun. Then somehow the Yanks' pen clicked as well, with Devin Williams and David Bender completely silencing the Jays by the end, including a brutal whiff of Guerrero. 

Even through this, the Jays did a lot right, like catching Judge in a rundown, or some plays Varsho had in the outfield. But tonight, the errors by Barger, Schneider and multiple outfielders were enough to blow the game. For once, the Yankees were capitalizing on opposing errors. And for once, everything came together for this damned, doomed Yankee team.

Winning 1 against this Jays team was a triumph. Now they're scared. Now it's not guaranteed anymore. Tomorrow night might be Schlittler against low rest Yesavage, and that could be interesting. Maybe we can hit his splitter if the pressure's on. Maybe...there's still a chance.

[As for the Phils? I dunno, man. I'm not sure if they have a comeback like this in 'em. Would love to be proven wrong though.]

Good News, the Mariners Can Hit This Year

 

The infuriating detail about the 2024 Mariners was that the rotation, and pitching in general, was so damn good that the whole team refusing to hit felt like a missed opportunity. It was literally just Cal Raleigh and Dylan Moore. Everybody else either didn't hit, hit then got injured, or started hitting right when it was too late for it to matter. They got Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner specifically to hit, and they couldn't even do that. It was a waste of the peak season for all five starters. And so this season already seeing less of a Bryce Miller performance, and an injury from George Kirby making the fifth spot insanely variable...doesn't do much to dispute that.

What does help is that, even if Gilbert, Castillo and Woo deliver good seasons, which is looking likely at the moment, more of these people have remembered to hit. They're not pulling Dodgers numbers yet, but they've gone 8-8 in a 16 game stretch including series' against 5 different good teams. They're not getting killed, they're holding their own, and they're...winning games. And they just swept the Rangers in three games by outhitting them.

What a difference letting Dan Wilson run the team makes, right?

Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh and Jorge Polanco have had blistering starts to the season.  Getting these four in the same lineup SHOULD produce that outcome. It's just that the expected has a habit of getting away from the Ms. Mitch Garver SHOULD have been a can't miss power bat for this team, but he's been a .170 hitter. Jarred Kelenic SHOULD have been the guy for this team, except he wasn't. 2nd base has been a black hole for this team, robbing Adam Frazier, Kolten Wong and now Ryan Bliss of any mojo. Ben Williamson seems to be next to take the position, and hopefully he turns things around. 

But still, getting Julio, Arozarena and Cal all smoking the ball early is definitely a good thing here. Julio already has 8 RBIs and 3 homers, Randy has 9 RBIs and 3 homers, Cal has 5 homers and 8 RBIs. All great production. And Polanco is hitting .382 with 3 homers and 12 RBIs, power evoking his Twins days. So no, they're not gonna fall over like they did last year. I think figuring out how to get Luke Raley and Rowdy Tellez will do a lot of good, but this is all a good start. The core is cooking, they can beat Texas, this is a start.

I do want to be clear, though, that this all happens because the rotation has stayed good. Logan Gilbert has a 2.38 ERA, 32 Ks and can outlast great opposing hitting. Bryan Woo may have the better record, and Luis Castillo may have the better stuff, but Gilbert is consistent, reliable and an excellent big game pitcher. And the Mariners need a guy like him to break through the dirge and command the narrative, which I'm hoping they can eventually do. 

The Mariners proved they can take the down the Rangers, and they can win a series against the Astros. Maybe they've got more to prove. 

Coming Tomorrow- He won a Rookie of the Year, but it's clear from his start this year that he wants an MVP. 

That's Certainly a First Place Rotation

 

There was a stat the other day, that was like 'only four many teams have only started 5 guys so far this season', which is absolutely wild considering it's only April. And on that list, there are teams you'd expect. Y'know, the Phillies are on there, that's pretty likely. The Mariners, even without Bryan Woo, are on there, they've held up. A few unlikely ones in there, uh, the Athletics. Yeah! They started the year with Sears-Wood-Boyle-Blackburn-Stripling, they've kept it going. More power to 'em. The Royals, nobody expected Alec Marsh and Michael Wacha to hold up their end of the bargain but here we are. 

But, considering what the Mariners were going with heading into the season, not really surprising that their rotation has held up. Maybe not all 100% excellent right now, but this is an insanely strong unit that might be the deciding factor for the M's this year.

As he has been since coming up, Logan Gilbert has been the top performer here. So far he's 2-0 with a 1.87 ERA and 35 Ks, one short of Luis Castillo. Gilbert might be one of the most underrated pitchers in the game, because he's been insanely consistent in his 3 years in the bigs, always relied upon, always has a low ERA and always gets you out of trouble, and he's never really gotten much credit for it. No All-Star nominations, no Cy Young voting, nothing. I mean, last year Luis Castillo was the crowdpleaser of this group, and George Kirby had flashier numbers, but Gilbert might be the better bare-bones pitcher, and he's helped this team go from a middle of the pack wannabe to a more respectable competitor. He came up the same day as Jarred Kelenic, and one of them's not here right now. 

I mean granted he's....doing really well for a better team but that's not important right now.

The other strong arm so far for the Mariners is Bryce Miller, and after his incredible start last year it's a welcome presence. Miller's 3-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 24 Ks, he's perhaps a quieter presence than Gilbert but it's important that he does well. So far, the two biggest names, Castillo and Kirby, are having mediocre seasons buoyed by disappointing starts. They're still great pitchers with excellent technique, they're just trying to come down from rough outings. Emerson Hancock is the only pitcher who's truly struggling in this rotation, and I think the team's counting down til Woo gets back, but he's still got the occasional perk. Again, with the way they built this unit, mostly with homegrown arms, even the lower-tier guys can still give you good stuff.

The pitching has been the main saving grace for the Mariners, but the hitting is just taking off. Julio Rodriguez just hit his first homer of 2024, and is at least using that to heat up. Cal Raleigh's having another awesome year with 6 homers and 13 RBIs so far. Mitch Haniger's picking up where he left off a year ago, and is a great power bat still. There's a ton of holes in this lineup, and Polanco seems to be telling me that 2nd base is cursed in Seattle, judging by what it did to Adam Frazier and Kolten Wong. But this is a 1st place Mariners team, by the grace of the pitching, and they're gonna try and hang onto that for as long as they can, even if the Rangers might be the better team.

I hope Logan Gilbert can keep it up, he just might be the force that keeps the Mariners in the conversation.

Coming Tomorrow- The most versatile player in the game just adds another position to his resume.

Above Sea Level

 

Just a tantalizing 0.5 games behind the Astros for the AL West title. The Mariners spent so much time focusing on one AL West titan that it failed to recognize that another was gonna have a second half winning spree in the grand tradition of spoiling everyone's fun [like every year]. And so even if they've surpassed Texas, as they slow down amid injuries, they still have to do what they couldn't do last year, and stop the Houston Astros from winning the division for once.

The pace the Mariners are going at is still worthy of a strong finish, though they did slip a bit during series' with the Reds and Mets. They have been playing the Rays this week, and while it's been tough, the Ms have been using their top aces, such as Logan Gilbert, who's gotten even better as the season's gone on with a 13-5 record and a 3.56 ERA. Comparatively, the Rays have had to start Taj Bradley and some relievers. 

But even with the Angels and A's up ahead, the Mariners have to end the season with series' against the Dodgers, Rangers and Astros, as if they need to go through the ring of fire to even come close to topping their 2022. And I don't want to say that Rob Manfred asked for a tougher September for the Mariners purposely, but that's the exact kind of thing someone who hates baseball would do. The Mariners are looking at an extremely go of things to finish what's been a successful 2023, and they're gonna need all hands on deck to pull this off.

The M's have managed to get people like Cal Raleigh, Teoscar Hernandez, Andres Munoz, Josh Rojas and, yes, Julio Rodriguez rolling to make themselves into a threat at this point. But what's helped has been the guys we've known have been great pieces of this team stepping in to have great moments. Luis Castillo had a tremendous start the other day against the Rays. George Kirby's still going deep into games and establishing his consistency. Crawford's still a top-tier MLB defender. Jose Caballero is the kind of multi-talented spare part the team's been waiting for. So many pieces of this team are impressing me, and continuing to carry things in Seattle.

I really hope the Mariners can end the season on top, or at the very least with a good playoff seed. There's two teams I'm rooting for in the AL, the Orioles and Mariners, and I'd love to go as far as possible without seeing them play each other. Have all the boring teams forced out, get Houston out of the picture, and then get one of these two in the World Series. It'd be really fun if one of these Mariners teams made it to one, even this early in the careers of Rodriguez, Gilbert and Kirby. Cause there'll be lots of opportunities for more.

Coming Tonight: An outfield bat who isn't being relied on as much as he was last year.

The M's Come Together

 

It's no secret that the Mariners' season has been something of a disappointment so far, spending most of May and the back half of April struggling, blowing a nice lead in the AL West and now struggling to stay in fourth. The division that once could have been theirs has now gone to the Angels and Astros, and a lot of the early strategies, like starting Jarred Kelenic, throwing Matt Brash into the rotation and platooning Luis Torrens and Cal Raleigh at catcher, have not worked. 

So...the last few games have felt like a bit of a reset. First of all, it's kind of impressive the change this team can go through with or without Kyle Lewis. The team's been without him for around a year and they've struggled to get too much done. Now he's been back for 4 games and they're back to winning a bit more consistently. Lewis himself is hitting .267 with 3 RBIs and 2 homers, numbers befitting of his 2019 and 2020 breakout seasons. Taylor Trammell also seems to be MLB ready at last, hitting .273 with a homer. The trio of Lewis, Trammell and Sam Haggerty is bringing some energy to this lineup that felt absent before.

It's honestly the cherry on top of some building developments, like George Kirby's entry into the rotation, Julio Rodriguez coming into his own, and Eugenio Suarez having his best season to date. Plus, you also have Logan Gilbert, who struggled few his first few starts last year before becoming a reliable force for the Ms, going 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA with 60 Ks so far. Gilbert, even in a rotation with Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales, is giving the kind of reliability and edge that this Mariners team needs. Ray is giving a lot of strikeouts but so far isn't as dominant as he was last year, but he's also not doing TERRIBLY, either. 

And though some big pieces, like Jesse Winker, Adam Frazier, Diego Castillo and Chris Flexen aren't performing to par so far, you still have J.P. Crawford and Ty France running this team, and capable of big moments whenever. This is not a perfect team, but it's definitely capable of hero moments, and with Rodriguez, Lewis and Trammell now, there are more heroes.

I don't know if June will hold the stretch that gets them back into the race, as they're more of an August/September comeback kind of team, but...with these tools back with the team, and with Haniger not too far away, it definitely could happen. And since these recent wins have been coming against the Astros...the tide could soon turn.

Coming Tomorrow- A big fun home run hitter who likes fantasy football. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2021: Mariners

 

The Seattle Mariners finished the 2021 season with a 90-72 record, with a better record overall than the eventual World Series champion Atlanta Braves. And they didn't make the playoffs. 

As previously stated, Rob Manfred is trying to fix this. It's just gonna take another month for anything to actually get done because he sucks and so do the owners.

But yeah. The Mariners had their usual strong start followed by a steep decline, and unlike other years, it was tailed by a bloodthirsty August and September, lapping the A's and nearly challenging the Yankees for a playoff spot. This team looked genuinely excellent in points this year, fueled by star turns by Ty France, Yusei Kikuchi and J.P. Crawford, and what may be the last Mariners season for Kyle Seager. 

And while Jarred Kelenic may have been the more publicized rookie call-up of 2021 for the Mariners, the guy called up the same day, Logan Gilbert, might have been the more successful one. In 24 starts, Gilbert had a 4.68 ERA, 128 Ks, more than any starter not named Kikuchi, and the 4th-highest amount of innings of anybody. So at 24, he's already a trusted starter and a solid low rotation man after a call-up.

2022 Prediction: With Kikuchi gone and Gonzales looking like he's gonna start playing less of a role in this team, Gilbert will step up as the ace, and have a huge season that garners the attention of all.

Before the need came about for Gilbert, the Mariners had Justin Dunn playing that exact role. In 11 early season starts, Dunn had a 3.75 ERA and 49 Ks. He seemed like one of the standouts of the team, and then he got injured and would be out for the rest of the season. I kinda wonder how the team would have done if he'd have stuck around. Would there have been the need to call-up Gilbert or trade for Tyler Anderson? We will never know.

2022 Prediction: He's stepping up too. Gilbert, Ray and Gonzales may have the eyebrow-raisers, but Dunn's gonna win 10 games and have some excellent starts.

In another year or so I'm gonna need to really reassess last year's Austin Nola for Luis Torrens trade. Cause I still don't know who that benefits. Austin Nola was sort of a starting catcher for the Padres this year, but was injured for a lot of the season. Meanwhile, the starting catcher for Seattle was Tom Murphy, who hit .202 with 11 homers and more strikeouts than hits, as well as lukewarm defensive numbers. Yes, Murphy did have some crucial clutch hits over the course of the season, but he's a backup catcher at best.

2022 Prediction: I don't think he's starting the whole season. Either the Mariners get somebody or the call somebody up.

Meanwhile, the catcher the Mariners did get in exchange for Austin Nola only started a few games at catcher. Luis Torrens was the starting catcher to begin the season, alienated the entire fanbase by refusing to hit for average, was sent down, then sent back up and became a power force at DH, finishing the season with 14 homers and 47 RBIs. As cool as his June surge was, he's still kinda one-dimensional, and not really what the Yankees prospectors prepared us for. So basically, Jesus Montero again.

2022 Prediction: Mostly bench work. A few big moments, though. 

Shifting to the bullpen, an unexpected success for the Mariners, after giving up Rafael Montero, they went to the next-most-trusted bullpen vet, Drew Steckenrider, to take the ninth. He was already having a sharp season, and powered it through a closing role, finishing the season with a 2.00 ERA, 58 Ks and a 1.020 WHIP in 62 innings, with 14 saves. Steckenrider finished the season with a 2.5 WAR, the 5th highest on the team.

2022 Prediction: I don't see him having the full season as the closer, but he'll have a strong, if not as dominant, year in relief.

In a very puzzling move, the Rays traded Diego Castillo to Seattle for J.T. Chargois, who finished strongly for the Rays. Castillo, who was one of the few remnants of the 2019 bullpen still remaining, shuffled over to Seattle, where he had a 2.86 ERA with 26 Ks in 22 innings. I think the Mariners got him because they figured they might need a closing option in Montero's absence, but Steckenrider ended up happening.

2022 Prediction: Begins to fade into the relief background. I don't think Topps is making a card of him next year.

Tomorrow, some extra customs from a letdown Marlins team that still accomplished a lot.

The 2021 Mariners: Take Two

 So, to recap, the Seattle Mariners came off to an impressive start, and were at 13-8 on April 24th, at 2nd in the AL West, fending off the Astros and Angels, and looking very good. With Mitch Haniger, Ty France and Kyle Seager all surging, and Yusei Kikuchi off to a strong start, the Mariners were looking impressive even without Kyle Lewis.

Theeeeen the bottom fell out. Teams like the Astros, Orioles and now Rangers trounced the Mariners, revealing them to be a marginally okay team who began the year with a hot streak yet again. The power hitters evened their averages out, Taylor Trammell's strikeouts grew, John Means no-hit them, and both Marco Gonzales and Nick Margevicius ended up on the IL. The once confident Mariners were looking bleaker and bleaker by the second, and as the Astros lapped them in the standings, the current strategy was clearly not going to work.

And that's where we are today. The 2021 Mariners, Take Two. Or, 'If all these players we've had aren't going to do anything, let's just bring up two of our top prospects'.

And that's what today is looking like. Jarred Kelenic, who was acquired in the Robinson Cano deal, and one of the single biggest prospects in baseball, will be starting tonight for the Ms. Additionally, Logan Gilbert, the Ms' first round pick in the 2018 draft, and another top prospect, will be starting on the mound for Seattle. So that's two huge pieces being added at once, to a team with enough working pieces to sustain a callup, not to mention a team that's at .500 and could go either way.

So, thinking realistically- could Kelenic and Gilbert save the Mariners?

Well, let's be realistic. Yes, we did have Kyle Lewis strike gold immediately upon callup in 2019, and he's been similarly potent in the last two seasons. But pretty much every other recent Mariners call-up has taken time to mature. Erik Swanson, Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn did not strike gold immediately, and the solid work all three are doing now came with experience. J.P. Crawford wasn't a gold-glover with Philly, but he became one last year with the Ms, and has been awesome ever since he's blossomed. Some players, like Evan White, Jake Fraley and Taylor Trammell, are still waiting to really do well in the majors.

So the chance of both of these players immediately coming off like pros starting tonight is slim, but not impossible. The Mariners are convinced Kelenic will be their Kris Bryant, the guy who snaps into place and recontextualizes the team. Knowing what happened in Chicago in 2015, that's a bold assumption, and hopefully Kelenic, and Gilbert are able to deliver.

And if not...there's always Julio Rodriguez as take three in August.

Coming Tonight: The best pitcher in baseball, for the biggest disappointment in baseball.