Far from Fort Myers

 

So every three years in March I end up in Fort Myers, Florida. My uncle lives down there, we don't see him that often in Jersey for work reasons, it's easier to come down cause it's Florida and it's nice down there. It just ends up happening every 3 years for Spring Training. Always when the World Baseball Classic's on. 2017, 2023, probably next year. And Fort Myers, they have the Twins and the Red Sox down there. Always have. I remember going to the Sox's old complex on St. Patrick's Day in 2006. Packed with Sox fans. Insane. 

I've grown to anticipate seeing the Twins' facility when I'm down there, because it's a lot homier than the Boston one. You can go backfield at Fenway South but they block it off after an allotted time. Hammond Park they don't care. I watched BP last time. Tony Oliva holding court. Saw Randy Dobnak and Byron Button signing for kids. It's just cozier. More tempered type of fan. Plus, bratwurst. 

It's a good team to see in March. Cause there's no cynicism, no 'why didn't we do this last year'. Optimism reigns. In 2023, they had a full team, and one that looked competitive, even if it still felt like they were starting over a little. I think about how it's gonna feel next year. Aside from Buxton, Ryan and Lopez, what even is the future of this team? All those young guys that were supposed to inherit the team have kinda stuck in and rolled into despondency. Remember when Alex Kirilloff was supposed to be the guy? Remember when Eduoard Julien was supposed to be a fixture in that middle infield? This team has boiled down to a bunch of guys who are built well and look like great ballplayers but can't do anything. Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner. What can you even say?

I think going into this year, or last year, people were calling Matt Wallner one of the best outfielders in the game, and I didn't get it. Wallner's big and strong and can run but right now he's just not hitting. Usually his OPS is around .850, right now it's .783. He's hitting .204, and while his 21 homers are a career high...what can you say he's even doing? He's an average hitter, below average infielder, he's just big. I feel like he's a front for something. Like a business that makes no money and clearly has a money laundering scheme running out the back. Larnach is like that too, he always gives the idea that he's gonna hit better than he has, and he just sits around .250 with 16 homers. How do you tell when they're succeeding if this is just what they do? At least Buxton you can see him spring into action. 

The Twins are gonna need that promising, rebuilding feel in March in Ft. Myers. Cause right now there's no promise to be found. Just a slog of a last month and then you can put it to bed. 

Coming Tomorrow [?]: I did not expect this team to be as variable at catcher over the past 3 years, but here's the newest one they've settled on. At least he can hit.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Twins

I think it's as simple as this. The Minnesota Twins had the team this year. They were on track to make the playoffs with a month and a half left to go in the season. If Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Miranda, Lewis and Ryan stay healthy, they get there. Those six players are the heart of this team, and even in partial seasons accomplished so much. But for large swaths of the season, the majority of this group was hurt. Miranda and Lewis came back, Buxton and Correa would try and jump back in, but it was enough of a gap that the Royals and Tigers caught up and reduced them to fourth, just a year after finishing in 1st and winning a playoff series.

The injuries in Arlington and Atlanta may have gotten more publicity, but the injuries in Minneapolis turned a wild card favorite into a surprise onlooker. And it's very funny that Rocco Baldelli is showing the same 'never the same quality in consecutive seasons' tactic he had as a player. 

Trevor Larnach, barring the first couple weeks of the year, was a rare Twin that stayed healthy this year, and provided needed power assistance as the go-to DH this year. In 112 games, Larnach hit .259 with 52 RBIs and 15 home runs, and had a .771 OPS. Larnach has become a pretty reliable member of the young pack of hitters, and this year was another nice leveling up at the plate.

2025 Prediction: Another step further, hitting .276 with 25+ homers.

Because the Rays wait until the exact moment you're not expecting them to move you to move you, Manuel Margot was dealt to the Dodgers at the very beginning of the offseason [in the Tyler Glasgow deal], then moved over to Minnesota right at the end of camp. Margot had a chance to win a ring this year, but fate had other ideas. And so, Margot, now in a crucial OF role with the Twins, had his weakest season to date. In 129 games, Margot hit .238 with 31 RBIs and only 4 stolen bases. Three season after his defensive peak with Tampa, Margot was below average defensively and struggled at the plate. For the first time in his career, Margot will be facing free agency this year.

2025 Prediction: I honestly think the Rays'll bring him back. And he'll do better.

 

Kyle Farmer had his best statistical season to date last year, thanks to some excellent defense and strong contact numbers. This season, with an injury to recover from and other infield options getting play, Farmer's appeal was significantly lessened. In 107 games he hit .214 with 25 RBIs and 5 homers. Both defensively and offensively he was below average this year. 

2025 Prediction: Has something of a rebound year with Denver, though I doubt he'll be starting all year. Then again, if they trade McMahon he certainly might..

Matt Wallner was ushered into the young hitting group last year, as he took advantage of a late call-up and became one of the most refreshing hitters in the lineup. This year was very similar: he wasn't with the team initially, but once he got there he was a very helpful fill-in and helped the OF depth tremendously. In 75 games he had 37 RBIs and 13 home runs. And an .894 OPS, which is pretty fantastic.

2025 Prediction: Kepler's likely gone, Margot's gone, Larnach's primarily a DH...I think Matt Wallner's got a starting OF spot next year, and I think he's gonna be a serious ASG candidate. 

Chris Paddack came over in a trade in 2022, and considering that the Padres received Brent Rooker and Taylor Rogers in the trade, it's kinda wild that Paddack's lasted longer. Ultimately, 2024 was the Sheriff's most prolific year in Minneapolis, though still injury-shortened. In 17 games he went 5-3 with a 4.99 ERA and 79 Ks. At least a little closer to his 2019 breakthrough. 

2025 Prediction: Well, it's his last year before free agency, so watch him go absolutely wild out there.

Not only was Griffin Jax the Twins' best reliever of the season, he was one of their best players period. In 72 appearances, Jax had a 2.03 ERA, 95 Ks, a 2.8 WAR and 10 saves. Jax had a higher WAR than Pablo Lopez this year, which I would not have called. For a guy who didn't work as a starter in Minneapolis, I'm glad he's found a real niche for these guys.

2025 Prediction: I don't think the follow up will be as prolific but he'll have some great relief appearances. Perhaps less of them.

It was handy to have a consistent guy like Griffin Jax around because the closing option, Jhoan Duran, was less consistent this year. He finished the season with a  6-9 record, a ton of blown saves and only 23 saves. Duran can still throw as hard, but I think he just wasn't as unhittable as he's been in prior years.

2025 Prediction: Either he rights himself and becomes a great closer again or he blows his arm out and misses time.

Austin Martin was the other piece of the return for Jose Berrios, aside from Simeon Woods-Richardson, who was very useful this year. Martin got plugged into numerous roles this year, as he plays both the outfield and some infield positions. Unfortunately he doesn't play them very well. His very unpolished defense at least distracted from his passable offense, but while he hit .253, he only had 16 RBIs and 1 homer in 93 games. 

2025 Prediction: Honestly, I think he gets cut at some point.

So, Carlos Correa got hurt, then Royce Lewis got hurt, and there was a vacancy at short. So...in comes Brooks Lee, the Twins' top infield prospect, to get a taste of the majors. Unfortunately the 23 year old couldn't get much done at the MLB level, hitting .221 with 3 homers and 27 RBIs in 50 games. With both those guys back in 2025, I'm not sure what kind of role Lee will play with this team.

2025 Prediction: If the Twins get good enough that they need to make a big deadline deal, Lee will be the top piece going to a competitor. And THERE he'll blossom into something.

Towards the end of the year, the Twins called up two pretty well-regarded pitching prospects to start some games. Paddack and Ryan were hurt, there was room, let's get the kids up. Zebby Matthews had a really rough go of it, but David Festa, who was around for 14 games, did decently, with a 4.90 ERA and 77 Ks.

2025 Prediction: Will make camp with the team, but he's gonna have to be used in long-relief for a bit.

Coming Tomorrow- Mercifully, not very many White Sox. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Twins

 

The name of the game with the Minnesota Twins is depth. They may not always have the assets they were banking on, but there's enough options waiting to strike if somebody gets hurt. This year featured injuries to Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan, Jorge Polanco, Royce Lewis and Tyler Mahle, and yet the team still had enough pieces to get to the postseason and take down Toronto. Depth is going to be the deciding factor going forward in the AL Central, as it saved the Guardians' rotation and made the Tigers a second place team. In a year that may come down to who's the most prepared, the Twins may have a few legs up.

Jorge Polanco, yes, despite missing half the season, was able to accomplish a lot for the Twins. In 80 games, he hit .255 with 48 RBIs, 14 home runs and a 2.2 WAR, which is not bad at all for a 9-year veteran in a partial season. The thing about Polanco is that not only is he versatile and really skilled, but NEXT SEASON will be his age-30 season. He's done all this already since joining the Twins in 2014, and he hasn't even hit 30 year. That's so damned rare in today's age of bringing people up at 26. 

2024 Prediction: This could be the last year of Polanco's deal, though there's a chance the Twins could keep him on for 2025. I say he has another strong year while also paving the way for Edouard Julien, an equally important presence on this team.

I thought the Twins pulled a nice move in signing Christian Vazquez, as he'd been a reliable backstop and decent mid-lineup bat for the Sox and Astros. Plus, being a Sox lifer, he'd only have to go a little further down the road from usual to report for Spring Training. Vazquez's 2023 was not exactly what fans were expecting; in 102 games he only hit .223 with 6 homers and 32 RBIs, major steps down from his peak seasons. The good news is Vazquez is still an excellent defender, but this lack of offensive production led to Ryan Jeffers starting a ton more.

2024 Prediction: An improvement at the plate, but I think Jeffers might be looking at a starting gig by the end of the year.

Michael Taylor is one of those players that clearly has some flaws but does enough right that he's been employed constantly and has had excellent moments recently. The Twins signed Taylor for 2023 after two nice years in Kansas City. Taylor's defensive numbers were down in 2023, but he was doing a lot more offensively, with 13 steals, 51 RBIs and a career-best 21 home runs. 

2024 Prediction: Similar production in a smaller market. I don't know if this means he's a full-time home run guy now, but I think his defense will rebound.

The Twins have been waiting for Alex Kirilloff to happen for a while now, and every year something begins to work and then he sort of fades off again. This year was a slight improvement, as the Twins did manage to give Kirilloff some reps at 1st in between Donovan Solano's. In 88 games, Kirilloff hit .270 with 41 RBIs and 11 homers, both career marks for the 25-year-old.

2024 Prediction: I think the plan is to give him the starting gig at 1st, but I think the Twins are playing the game of 'that's riiiight, we're totally gonna start Alex Kirilloff at 1st, it would be a PITY if something were to happen to prevent us from doing so..."

Kenta Maeda handed in one excellent campaign for the Twins and then struggled to stay healthy for any more of them. This year he, at least, got 20 games, and he did alright enough, going 6-8 with a 4.23 ERA and 117 Ks. Maeda is 35, he's looking a little cooked, but he was still able to be a solid enough fifth man for a competitive Twins team, and that's what they wanted.

2024 Prediction: I don't think it will be for a full season, but the Tigers will get some peak Maeda material next year.

And then with all the outfield instability, Matt Wallner, who was looking like a fifth-string guy for a while, got some chances to prove himself with this team. In 76 games, Wallner hit .249 with 41 RBIs and 14 homers, and finished the year with a 2.2 WAR. 

2024 Prediction: I think he'll factor into the starting outfield for this team, and his star will continue to blossom.

Coming Tomorrow- The manager for this team kept his job and Buck Showalter didn't. Think about that.