Kep Ladder

 

Max Kepler has been with the Minnesota Twins for 10 seasons, and recently played his 1000th game as a major leaguer. You forget he's been around that long. Buxton's been around for just as long but he's only gotten through a season without getting injured for 60 or more games ONE TIME. Kepler has been much more consistent, despite the occasional 15-day IL stint. 

In those 10 seasons, Kepler has accumulated 21.3 WAR, 833 hits, 484 RBIs and 157 home runs. He's not one of the best in the league, and he's not a Hall of Famer. Hell, he's never even been an all-star, and to be perfectly honest if Bruce Bochy has room this year it'd be a wise idea to include him. But what Kepler is is steady, consistent and reliable. Even in seasons where the Twins haven't competed, Kepler's been there to hit stuff. He's not quite a contact hitter, as the .238 average could tell you, but he's very good at hitting for power, and he's great at launching hits fast enough to evade defensemen. Kepler so far this season has a .303 average, a rarity for him, and has 18 RBIs and 4 homers, plus an .892 OPS, which is the real difference maker.

That said, it's extremely funny given the Bomba rebellion of 2019 that a more contact-friendly guy like Kepler is more vital to this specific Twins team than somebody like Buxton. Buxton hasn't done a ton at the plate so far, but I think his emphasis is more toward power still, while Kepler is hitting for average and showing his versatility. The guys with the higher OPSs on this team, namely Kepler, Correa and Jeffers, aren't completely power hitters, but are more extremely accurate, and consistent, contact guys who can continue to get the job done. And while I'm not saying there's no place for a power hitter on this Twins team, especially considering Carlos Santana, they definitely have less of a place on this team than they did when Cruz and Sano were king. 

And considering that the AL Central is being run by a contact team right now that's also seeing power production from its own marquee guy, it makes sense that this kind of tactic would work for the modern Twins. There aren't as many big exclamation points with this Twins team, especially with Pablo Lopez, and Jhoan Duran having down years and Royce Lewis getting injured again, but they're definitely able to win games, and they've had no trouble with that recently, even against the Rangers. 

The real trick will be taking down the Royals, who're in town for a four game stretch this week. The Royals are playing better than the Twins overall right now, but the Twins may be hotter at the current moment. Still, it'll be interesting to see if Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods-Richardson match up favorably against people like Brady Singer and Seth Lugo. A decent showing in this series could mean the Twins are still a favored player in the division race; a poor showing could be a sign that they need a new approach.

Coming Tonight: Last year his offensive performance seemed to indicate a new, powerful youth regime. Now he's...cooled down a bit, I'd say.

Max Capacity

 

You know, midseason, when pretty much all of the AL Central was struggling and the Twins were staying above water only barely, it may have been easy to call them the weakest division leader in baseball. But right now, they only have 4 less wins than the Astros. Because while the Astros have been in the midst of a three-man battle for first that they can't always stay fully ahead of, the Twins have been rolling all month. Since their lackluster performance in Philly, the Twins are 21-14, at 81 wins, and are headed towards a division finish that, while it's been theirs for a while, is finally looking pretty earned.

What has helped is that, in the absence of Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, a lot of the guys who were struggling in the first half are now pulling their weight finally. The biggest of these is Max Kepler, who had a miserable start but is now hitting .254 with 60 RBIs and a team-leading 22 homers. It is a little sad that, 4 years after bomba-gate, it only takes 22 long balls to lead the Twins, but this is a different Twins team, relying more on contact and pitching than out-homering everybody. Michael Taylor is similarly a great RBI producer, with 47, and has 20 home runs. We're gonna just scooch over the fact that they've been here all season and Royce Lewis has 15 homers in 59 games, but the important thing is that there is offensive production now. Even some of the fringe guys, like Edouard Julien, Willi Castro, Matt Wallner and Alex Kiriloff have been impressing at the plate. With the amount of marquee guys that have fallen this year, it's nice that some of the younger depth choices are making up for it without overexerting themselves.

And it's a good thing the lineup is proving themselves, because, aside from Lopez and Gray, the rotation, and pitching in general, is looking a lot more human. Joe Ryan's been beaten up a bit since returning from the IL. Kenta Maeda is still capable of great stuff but has a 4.28 ERA and is 6-7. Even the bullpen is a little rustier than they were, with even Dylan Floro not producing as well as usual. It's not great when the pitching and the hitting can't sync up, and that half the season is spent waiting for the other to get good while hoping the one that was already good holds on.

The Twins, even as a division leader, have the opportunity to be a postseason spoiler. Odds are they will be matched with an AL West team, be it the Rangers or the fallen Astros, in the first rung of the playoffs. It would honestly be amazing if the Twins somehow outdo the competition, as they haven't won a playoff series in over two decades, and haven't even won a playoff GAME since 2004. It'd be an amazing outcome because practically no one would expect it, especially the AL West gang.

They just have to earn it, like they have many other things this year.

Coming Tomorrow- He came over from New York and promptly upped his team's offensive production overnight. 

Impossible Germany

 

The Minnesota Twins just got back from Toronto, and boy are their unvaccinated excuses tired!

A few players didn't make the trip, including closer Emilio Pagan, relievers Trevor Megill and Caleb Thielbar, and, most notably, outfield mainstay Max Kepler. Without those four large pieces, the Twins still won 2 over the Jays, but that loss was a 3-12 loss where the team felt outclassed on a number of levels.

And now, with the team's departure from Canada, the absent players, especially Kepler, fight to act like none of this even happened.

The team is doing very well right now, has a 4.5 game leg up on Cleveland due to all the Cleveland rainouts, and is achieving success from the preestablished core in addition to the newcomers. But they're headed into a series against the Yankees followed by a series against the Rays, and while they could get through the Jays alright, the Yankees are an entirely different animal, and the Twins are without Carlos Correa, Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray and Byron Buxton's better numbers.

The Twins just need to unify the core a little more. Kepler is having a great season, with 25 RBIs and 6 homers, but he needs to recover a lot of the goodwill he lost from missing those games in Toronto. Luis Arraez of all people has been the primary first baseman, but his power numbers aren't as successful as his contacts. The most WAR on the team is Trevor Larnach, but he's still not an everyday player. Jorge Polanco is having another nice season, but he's doing it while hitting .230. And these rookies coming up, like Jose Miranda and Mark Contreras, aren't hitting much at all.

I think what's ultimately kept this team afloat has been the rotation, and even without Ryan and Gray, this team can still put in Bailey Ober, Chris Archer and Devin Smeltzer and get results. Smeltzer, a guy from one town over from me who was brought up a few years back but mostly toiled in the minors, is finally proving why the Twins kept him onboard all this time, and has a 1.93 and 2 wins through 5 starts without being too reliant on strikeouts. This is a very old-school type of rotation, right down to the emphasis on veteran presence [even if Dylan Bundy is channeling last year's lack of control]. The efficiency of the pitching, and the bullpen, have kept this team in first despite the injuries.

I do think the Twins have enough to stay in first, at least for the rest of the month, but I do want them to be careful in series' with Cleveland and Chicago, especially as they begin to creep up.

Coming Tomorrow- The reigning Cy Young champ. 

Kep Ladder

 2021 is shaping up to be a huge year for the Chicago White Sox, and possibly a strong year for the Cleveland Indians. So what is left for the two-time AL Central champs, the Minnesota Twins? Well, it's honestly up to how much of their 2019 mojo they're willing to recreate. 

To be honest, we still, for the most part, have the bulk of the 2019-era Twins team with us. Buxton, Sano, Cruz, Kepler, Berrios- all there. The only big pieces who have left are Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi and Eddie Rosario. And yet this team has rebounded in wild ways.

First of all, the Twins are one of those teams that retool and regroup even before a major piece needs to be filled. Getting Josh Donaldson and Andrelton Simmons wasn't because of vacancies, they were brought in as upgrades. They just augment the homegrown core, consisting of Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. Another intriguing part of this team is that there is no real big cheese, they all sort of trade off being the major power player. Last year it was Byron Buxton, the year before it was Mitch Garver. I think it could be Max Kepler this season. Every year since he came up he's been slowly building in power, becoming more and more of a versatile player, and while last year was a step backward, he's prime for improvement this year.

The only place that worries me with this Twins team, and where the other AL Central contenders have a leg up, is the rotation. It is a rather old rotation, aside from Berrios and Maeda- Randy Dobnak is an older up-and-comer, and Matt Shoemaker, J.A. Happ and Michael Pineda are now all eyeing rotation spots. The mid-2010s rotations may not have all been pristine, but at least they were full of young homegrown guys. Here, the young homegrown guys don't seem to have much of a place in the rotation, which is odd.

So while the lineup still seems to be strong, and the team still seems to be good, there's a lot I'm unsure about, especially matching up with a rising Sox team. I'm not saying the dynasty is over, but the Twins better be thinking about the next few years with this crew, or the extension of this crew. 

Coming Tomorrow- One of the few scoundrel types still in St. Louis finally left for another NL Central team. I wonder how that'll work out for him. 

Mad Max: Beyond Metrodome

So, back with the Twins. Since June they've been acting a bit more human, losing more games, performing...like a regular ballclub.

...almost.

I mean, the Twins have still usurped the Yankees as the home-run-hitting leaders of baseball, which is expected when you have Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop, CJ Cron and Mitch Garver on the same team. Everyone has over 13 home runs in the lineup except Byron Buxton. Miguel Sano has the least RBIs with 25, but he's only been here for 47 games and is just now getting hot, so it's fine.

This is also the best season yet for Max Kepler, who's had his highest average yet with .260, his most homers with 23, and some good RBI numbers with 60, a team high for people who are not Eddie Rosario. He's proven in the past few years that he can be a trusted asset, but this season he may be more than just a Twins standout; he might be establishing himself as a legitimate hitting threat for the MLB in general, which is nice. Germany could use some good press.

They've also figured out the pitching situation, with a retooled bullpen and Taylor Rogers as closer, and...the potential to get more assets before August. They've also balanced the rotation, with Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi and Perez all doing equally great, and Pineda slowly regaining his control as well.

This is a solid playoff-ready team, but it's gonna take some retooling and momentum to get to where they should be in October, and they're gonna have to figure out why they've been losing so many June and July matches. I do think the Twins could rock the postseason if given the opportunity, but they need to get to that point.

Coming Tomorrow- His team may be wobbling through the wild card standings, but at least he's finally become a trusted starter for them.

Twins and Needles

And now, a moment with one of the AL Central teams that isn't the Indians. SPOILER: things aren't going well.

The Twins have shed a lot of their former semi-dominance, dealing Lance Lynn, Brian Dozier, Fernando Rodney, Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly to other teams, and only gaining a surprisingly spry Logan Forsythe and the handy playing time of Tyler Austin in return. They're limp, tired, and the youth movement isn't doing too many favors, only yielding Jake Cave and Mitch Garver, and barely using the strengths of their standouts, like Max Kepler, who's having a comparatively down year, but still has a bunch of home runs because of course he does.

Look, the Twins are 13 games behind, are well under .500, and yet are the second place team in this division that is definitely going to the Indians, because of f--king course it is. And even if they are in second place, and are another 8 games ahead of the Tigers, therefore DESERVING TO BE in second place...like, the 4th place San Francisco Giants are better than them, and they're without Posey AND Longo.

On the bright side...Eddie Rosario and Jose Berrios. If they stay Twins, and are built around, the Twins might be okay after all. But after Sano and Buxton failed them essentially, and Santana disappointed after being handed the ace card, they need to be careful about who they're trusting the franchise to.

Coming Tonight: He played for my team, won a World Series...then left for a team he thought would lead him back. They didn't. So he's playing for the Cubs.

Youth Reigniting the Twins

I was worried for a moment.

I saw the Twins play during Spring Training this year, and I could tell there was a spark. Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano were ferocious, and the team and this optimistic aspect to it I couldn't quote place, but there was a moment that I thought spelt doom for them.

It was early on in the game, and Max Kepler had a nice sized hit. However, in running to third, he landed, hobbling, and called the coach to check it out. By the time his spot in the roster came up again, somebody else was playing it. Kepler, in some way shape or form, had gotten injured.

To me, this was a worrying aspect, as Kepler was a strong, earth-shattering presence in a depleted, tired Twins team last year. He alone powered them through the rest of the year. So if they lost him, I didn't know how 2017 would work.

But...I was mistaken. Kepler wound up starting the season healthy, and has managed to be a pretty nice sized presence in the team. Heck, I don't even think he's the best performer on the team right now- Miguel Sano and Ervin Santana are doing pretty damned well. So the fact that Kepler, arguably the singular savior of the Twins last year, isn't even carrying the team in another good year, says something about the quality of the roster.

It's the youth movement, people like Sano, Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios and Eddie Rosario, that's keeping this team good and hot. Yes, occasional assists by Santana, Joe Mauer and Brian Dozier do help, but while they're figures of leadership, this isn't exactly their team.

If the Twins are lucky, they'll stay hot all year round. I just hope the youth movement has enough in them to keep them good.

Coming Tomorrow- A big hitter for a small team.