On Plummeting and Not Dying

 

I should have predicted that Kerry Carpenter would be the magic hat guy for the Tigers. Kerry Carpenter was like this a couple years ago. He was having a great breakout year then got hurt and the team shuffled off the division leaderboard. I didn't think this Tigers team would NEED a 'magic hat' guy, they'd been ridiculously good for the first three months. Then on June 29th, Carpenter got injured, and their record in the time without him was 7-14. This included being swept by the Mariners, being swept by the Pirates and losing 3 of 4 against the Blue Jays. Some of these losses were some of the worst in a while. Not even the return of Tarik Skubal the other day could balance things. 

And what's even funnier is that during yesterday's long-awaited win, righting the balance at last, Kerry Carpenter, in his first game back after missing a month, went hitless. So it wasn't like Carpenter was holding back hits himself. They just needed him there. Hence...Gleyber Torres exploding against Max Scherzer. 

I really hope Carpenter's enough to make the Tigers into a great team again, because they've lost a lot of ground in the AL Central. They're now only 7 games ahead of Cleveland, who of course are gaining ground at the exact moment they're supposed to be selling. They're no longer the best team in the AL, as the Blue Jays now hold that distinction. But everything they've built was built to last. Skubal, Greene, Carpenter, Torkelson, Dingler, Mize. None of those pieces are any worse off. Skubal's still a Cy Young candidate, Greene is still an MVP candidate, Dingler's still a surer answer at catcher than they've had in years. The momentum may have halted but this team is still very much a league power.

I think of the depth guys this team has that ensures that things don't completely careen off a cliff. Reese Olson is a very solid later-rotation piece that just keeps the ship airtight. He's got a 3.15 ERA and 65 Ks in 13 starts. I think he's taken the spot that Matt Manning at one time thought he'd have to himself. And then the spot that Sawyer Gipson-Long thought was his is being covered by Keider Montero, who's another strong-if-nondescript back end guy. The bullpen has been so good that even people like Brennan Hanifee, Brant Hurter and [all of the sudden] Luke Jackson are important contributors. And now Colt Keith is handling a lot more of the load as the swing-in 3B/DH type. This team was relying on the few standouts they had for a while, and now they're so good that the depth guys are just as valuable. 

The Tigers get to play the D-Backs this week, as they're expected to lose even more pieces, and then they'll come to Philly for a series. They should have enough to get back on track, but the division race might be tighter than it needs to be in August.

Coming Tonight: The Cubs are so good this year that I still haven't gotten to all their best players of the season. Like the big star guys. There's like 3 or 4 I haven't done yet, like this surprise 1st base find.

Hung Out to Dry

 

Last night, firmly I'd say, was Reese Olson's worst start of the year thus far. Olson had made a habit of pitching very strong outings without overexerting himself, and without much run support. In The Tigers' 0-10 loss to Milwaukee, Olson gave up 8 runs and 12 hits, despite striking out 6. I don't think I even need to say that Olson didn't get any run support on that one.

But it's the latest example of Olson pitching the best he can and the Tigers not especially showing up for him. Olson is 1-7 so far this season, with some April losses coming during outings where he only gave up 1 or 2 runs. Olson isn't the showiest pitcher in this rotation [I refer you to Jack Flaherty], but he's extremely consistent, and he's capable of going 7 or so innings even if he gives up runs. Until this past start he had an extremely low ERA, and the Brewers rout raised it from a 2.48 to a 3.43. This is also the umpteenth start from Olson where he gave up 5 or more runs, which is becoming a frightening trend for a team that has already lost Flaherty to an injury.

Olson's issues with opposing batters is only one leg of the problem though. The Tigers' lineup, even with Mark Canha and Gio Urshela, is painfully anemic this year. They had to send Spencer Torkelson down to Toledo due to his .200 average, and for a guy that was at one point the sign of great things to come, that's a disappointing trend. Not that Casey Mize is doing a ton better, his 4.70 ERA is telling me that he may have thrown his arm out a couple years ago. Other than Riley Greene, there's really not a ton going on with this lineup. Matt Vierling's hitting .282 with 28 RBIs, that's a very good thing. Kerry Carpenter was hitting before he got injured. This new kid, Justyn Henry-Malloy, does seem like, at the very least, a breath of fresh air. But a lot of these guys are either underperforming, past their prime or just doing...okay. 

And yet Tarik Skubal is 7-1. Which means that the Tigers' hitters show up for Skubal...but not for Olson. And that's odd to me. Yes, Skubal is the better pitcher, but Olson's record is due less to his own abilities and more to the lack of run support. It is a two-part issue, and I can't imagine how many more wins Sky might have in another market, but it's just sad seeing Olson going 1-7 despite having, at least til this week, a really nice year.

The Tigers looked to compete for a bit, but might be too mediocre to get too far above .500. I hate that they're still struggling, even as the Royals have found themselves, but that's just the Tigers' luck.

Coming Tomorrow- Everybody's talking about two rookie hurlers on his team, but he's no slouch himself.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Tigers

 

For a noncompetitive team, the Detroit Tigers managed to do a lot of very intriguing things throughout this season. And it starts with the fact that, despite going 78-84, the Tigers ended 2023 in second place. Over the Guardians. 

I mean...looking at this team, there's not a TON that screams second place. Good players, of course. Great performances, a no-hitter in there, and some great youth down the stretch. But this is a very mediocre team that made it to 2nd because they had the least things go wrong in the last stretch. Thanks to their reinforcements and healthy additions, the Tigers had an excellent September, which should, in theory, be a prelude to better times.

I hate to say it, though, but someone who might not be around long enough to experience the Tigers being good is Akil Baddoo. He was excellent in his rookie season in 2021, and hasn't delivered a full campaign worthy of that start yet. In 112 games, Baddoo hit .218 with 11 homers and 20 more strikeouts than hits. 

2024 Prediction: Mark Canha will ensure that Baddoo doesn't have to start as much, and he'll be better off as a bench guy.

This season marked the Tigers moving away from Eric Haase behind the plate and towards Jake Rogers, who made himself known with a strong start. Rogers actually finished the season with the 2nd-most home runs on the Tigers, which is interesting considering that Javier Baez, Austin Meadows and Jonathan Schoop were also on this team at one point. Rogers, in 107 games, hit .221 with 49 RBIs, and secured the position while Haase was dealt to Cleveland.

2024 Prediction: Rogers has maybe a year or so before the Tigers go with a homegrown, above-replacement-level choice, so he'll do well enough next year. 

In a year where the bullpen options in Detroit were better than ever [even without Jimenez and Soto], Alex Lange put on another understated but powerful season. Lange was given the all-powerful closing gig, and in 67 games had a 7-5 record, a 3.68 ERA and 26 saves. It remains to be seen whether Lange is a professional closer or just a great reliever, but what he did during this season was pretty nice.

2024 Prediction: Keeps the ninth. Breaks 30.

The Tigers' rotation was beaten up to begin the season, but then slowly people started getting activated and joining the fun. No, Casey Mize was not one of them, but his two battery-mates definitely showed up. Matt Manning got 15 games this year and got back to business, including being part of that no-hitter, and going 5-4 with a 3.58 ERA and 50 Ks. Manning just needs a full, healthy season and he'll be alright.

2024 Prediction: 30 games, 10+ wins, the undivided attention of the league.

You also had Tarik Skubal popping in midyear, having an even sharper 15 game run. Skubal went 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 102 Ks, a terrific stretch that brought to mind his early successes in 2020. 

2024 Prediction: A monster first half that will reassure fans that he can carry the rotation.

After coming up in Arlington and struggling to find a niche, Andy Ibañez found himself as an acceptable starting 2nd base option in Detroit, and he actually didn't do too badly for himself. In 114 games he hit .264 with 11 home runs, 41 RBIs and some nice defensive play. I do see him as a replacement guy for this period, but he's a sharp piece. 

2024 Prediction: His importance will decrease as the youth solidifies itself in this infield.

And then, while all the other pitchers were hurt, the Tigers brought up a rookie hurler named Reese Olson, and he actually was a pretty satisfying choice for a seat-filler. The 23-year-old Olson finished his rookie year with a 3.99 ERA  with 103 Ks in 17 games. With the crowded field only slightly decreasing with Eduardo Rodriguez's departure, Olson will need similar numbers to make 2024 work.

2024 Prediction: Doesn't start the season in the rotation, but has some crucial starts down the stretch.

And then there were these two rookies that showed up towards the end of the year. Parker Meadows was one. The truly upsetting thing about this season is because of his brother Austin's issues with anxiety this year, there was never a moment where both Meadows brothers suited up for the Tigers, and with Austin a free agent that's not a thing that'll happen in Detroit. Parker did manage to have a nice season, though, hitting .232 with 13 RBIs in 37 games.

2024 Prediction: The outfield spot is not his yet, but once the Tigers figure out who their new DH is, he might get some more chances to start.

And then you have another Tigers pitching prospect. One of, like, 7 or so in this roster. Sawyer Gipson-Long got 4 starts at the MLB level, and did pretty well for himself, with a 2.70 ERA and 26 Ks. Is this a season that would have happened had everyone stayed healthy? No. But it is a preview of what the Tigers could be getting more frequently soon enough.

2024 Prediction: There is, in all actuality, a chance that Gipson-Long makes the rotation out of camp. It's not 100%, as Joey Wentz and Alex Faedo still exist, and I honestly think it won't happen right away. But when it does happen, the Tigers will be happy with what they see from him.

Coming Tomorrow- The Twins won their first playoff series in 30 years, and some of these guys helped with that.