Seiya So

 

Usually around this time of year, the Chicago Cubs are either cartwheeling out of a playoff spot or cartwheeling out of first. This year's no different. The Brewers have a padded lead of the NL Central, and 7 games back are the Cubs, at 57-45, well over .500 after their stumble in late May. They've been rock-solid ever since, are still a proven competitor, and are looking at a playoff spot, even if it's not the safest one. I know this sounds an awful lot like last season's Cubs team, but they swear it's different.

Although, last season's Cubs team had a healthy Cade Horton, better seasons from Imanaga, Boyd and Taillon, and the Kyle Tucker factor. Now we have a mediocre Alex Bregman season, a snakebitten rotation, a very scattered bullpen [Palencia keeps getting hurt], and an alarming lack of upward momentum. Matt Shaw, Kevin Alcantara and Moises Ballesteros are all stalling at the gate after big callups last year, and there haven't been any real younger Cubs coming to save the rotation either. Is this team moving forward? Can it move forward at all?

If this team does anything long-term this season, it'll be because the lineup has packed so much run production in there that other teams can't handle it. Seiya Suzuki has 17 homers, 53 RBIs and an .831 OPS, and this is a walk in the park year for him. He routinely gets the OPS over .800, routinely produces tons of runs. Just a steady RBI guy, the exact kind of guy the team needed without being too big or two one-dimensional. Michael Busch has been like that too, just gets in there, produces runs, doesn't need to do much else. He's only got 13 home runs and 54 RBIs but the season's still sort of young. Ian Happ has 18 homers and 45 RBIs, and has continued to be this consistent source of power for a good half-decade or so.  Dansby Swanson's very hot-and-cold, but when he's hot he's unstoppable. And then you have Pete Crow-Armstrong once again working on an MVP campaign, not only hitting .282 with a .900 OPS, 22 homers, 55 RBIs and 25 steals, but some of the best outfield catches in the game. He's nailing every facet of this game and doing exactly what the Cubs knew he could. 

Beyond that, there's still work to be done. David Peterson and Jameson Taillon are getting crucial big game situations and can't really contend with them right now. Imanaga and Boyd are okay but have been better. There's no slam dunk guy in this rotation because Steele and Horton are out, and while Steele should be back soonish, a lot will be on his shoulders when he does get back. Basically, this team isn't a playoff WINNING team if they don't have starters that know what they're doing. The Cubs will be going up against teams like the Brewers, Dodgers, Braves and Phillies, and they all have excellent rotations for a playoff schematic. What do the Cubs have right now? And if they want Skubal, do they have the prospects to make it work? Will they GO for Kevin Alcantara or Matt Shaw? 

The Cubs have a team that could surprise some people this year, it's just not complete, and I don't know if it will be.

Coming Tomorrow- Something I've noticed in the last couple seasons is that he may not be prompt, he may not begin the season on the active roster, but when he gets there, he makes it count. 

Skewing the Median in Style

 

The Cubs are a very strange first place team. So far this season they've seen a 21-year-old rookie and two 23-year-old breakouts, but they simultaneously have a 40-year-old DH [with a pair of rubber nuts that have been making the rounds on social media], a 35-year-old utility infielder, three starters over 33, and four crucial relievers over 35. This is a team that can rebuild at the same time as utilizing outstanding veteran pieces, and we're essentially at the start of the ride here.

Let's at least start with Seiya Suzuki, because as a forerunner of this Cubs team he exists as a fascinating case. He came over in 2022 and was expected to be a standout straight away, but both slumped and got hurt as his rookie season went on. His last two years he's been very good, hitting .285 each year, but hasn't especially reached the place of dominance the fans thought when he was signed. This city has already seen Kosuke Fukudome fail to live up to expectations, and they struggled with Kyuji Fujikawa and Tsuyoshi Wada as well. So it's very affirming that Suzuki is having his most monstrous season to date, even at 30. He's got 57 RBIs so far, which is on pace to match his single-season best by the break. He also has 17 home runs at the moment, and his season high is 21. The road to a 30+ homer season is here, and even the potential for an All-Star nod. I think the key to Suzuki was not pushing him into a lead role but letting him be an ensemble player, just one of the guys in this lineup. Someone like Swanson or Tucker, or PCA now, can be the marquee guy.

The Cubs this year have cemented a truly great lineup, one that even has a combination where everyone in it was a first round draft pick. The best people have been farmed, signed or brought in to lift this team, and that's what they've been doing. Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow Armstrong, Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ have been having excellent seasons at the plate, Carson Kelly is a trusted starter once again and Matt Shaw is finally coming into his own in the majors. They've amassed all these great hitters in their prime that are all lining up for great years. This is what the Cubs have been trying to do since the last core left, and they seem to be accomplishing so much more now.

And again, there's a lot of guys over 32 keeping this team hot. Matt Boyd is one of the Cubs' best pitchers right now, with a 2.89 ERA and a 5-3 record, and he's 34. Jameson Taillon has 7 wins and a 3.50 ERA ad is 33. So many great relief pieces on this team, like Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar and Ryan Brasier, are guys over 35 that other teams counted out. And yes, younger guys like Ben Brown and Cade Horton can fit in there and start establishing themselves, but it's a good balance between up-and-comers and veterans, and not over reliant on either.

The Cubs have been really impressing people so far this season, and with a palpable distance between them and the rest of the pack, they hope to keep doing so even as we reach this season's midway point.

Coming Tomorrow- He sought to bring hope to a fanbase that had lost it all, and he's...sort of succeeded, I think.

The 'Never a Dull Moment' Opening Series

 

I think it speaks to the people that make the schedules that I've been so enthralled by this Rangers-Cubs series. You look at it one way, you go 'oh yeah, the team that just won the World Series is cleaning up', but the games are anything but simple. These are two very well-built teams that are already playing playoff-caliber matches with playoff-style stakes. 

It's primarily been wild solely because I didn't think Wyatt Langford would see the majors this soon. The 22-year-old was drafted just last year, zoomed through the minors and was killing it in Spring Training. I just assumed he wouldn't make it because he's only had a half-year in the minors, but him making it to the show [and Jackson Holliday still 'not being ready yet'] was a late Spring Training shocker. And even now, with the outfield still being reserved for Adolis Garcia, Evan Carter and Leody Taveras, Langford has been the starting DH for this team, meaning they're not sure where to play him in the field yet.

It certainly seemed like a puzzling move until Langford started hitting like hell and driving in runs. So I guess he was ready.

That's been an interesting parallel to the Cubs because while both Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford have factored into the Rangers' 2024 plans, Pete Crow Armstrong, who was brought up last year and even dyed his hair blue this spring, is back in Iowa. The Cubs' dependence on young stars is more out of convenience, as Ben Brown was brought up as a seat-filler for Justin Steele, who injured his hamstring after some excellent work in the opener. Brown promptly got the snot kicked out of him yesterday in a long-relief role after Hendricks similarly got rocked. So even if he is probably gonna start in a few days, the fact that the Rangers can already get to him is telling. Maybe a 'first start hazing' kinda thing, like 'hey, welcome to the bigs, over there are the World Champions, go get 'em kid', but...hopefully he comes into his own over time.

But yeah, already you've seen, like, playoff-quality highs and lows from this matchup. Jonah Heim getting absolutely screwed by an ump into letting a runner go by, then redeeming himself with a walkoff moment. Jared Walsh and Adolis Garcia raining on Kyle Hendricks' parade. Travis Jankowski still finding ways to be the hero a couple years after most of the league gave up on him. Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson having heroic moments when the team needs them. Even if the Cubs aren't showing it in the win column yet, they are hanging in there with one of the best teams in baseball, and making for entertaining, dramatic games.

If both of these teams are preparing for playoff stakes in the first series of the year, it's gonna be a huge, wild season for both of them.

Coming Tomorrow- The Giants added a few new pitchers this year, yet this guy might still be the most important piece in town.

Seiya Real Soon

 

So uh, remember the commanding lead the Brewers had over the NL Central that many people thought would propel them to the NL Central title? Uh...not the case, it seems.

And it's not really the Brewers' fault, they had a major winning streak going until yesterday, still have so many great pieces in place, and were expected to roll towards October. Only issue is the Cubs decided to get hot at the same time, are creeping up the divisional leaderboard, and used a three-game series this week to move up two games thanks to beating the Brewers twice. So now the Brewers are only 3 games in front of the Cubs, and have this mounting terror breathing down their backs.

It's actually kind of fitting, because we all remember the 2018 season where the Brewers snuck ahead at the last second after the Cubs had led the whole year, then forced the Cubs out at Wild Card week and went toe-to-toe with the Dodgers in the NLCS. This Brewers team isn't quite the same as the one that broke big in 2018, but a few key figures, including Christian Yelich, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes, Wade Miley and Adrian Houser, all still remain. Meanwhile, the only 2018 holdovers in Chicago are Ian Happ and Kyle Hendricks, the latter being a year away from a full ten years of service with the Cubs. 

The Cubs, after selling the farm a few years ago, have used the last few years to rebuild. However, unlike many rebuilding teams [the Orioles, Tigers, D-Backs and Reds come to mind], the Cubs still have a strong enough ownership to be able to buy crucial pieces in their prime. So, yes, getting Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki does help. But, as we saw in Texas last year, getting three great pieces doesn't mean much if the team hasn't been built up to support them. 

So the Cubs, having firmed up a lot of their own options, look a lot more confident this year and are able to supplant Swanson and Bellinger. It's not just the preexisting guys like Happ, Nico Hoerner and Adbert Alzolay that are impressing people this year, but the people that have come up in the last year or so. Christopher Morel had a big come up in 2022, yes, but his power numbers have cemented this case as a Cubs mainstay [even at the mercy of Patrick Wisdom's playing time]. Miguel Amaya and Nick Madrigal haven't always been starting but they're still crucial depth pieces that could aid this team fully going forward. And while I did think Javier Assad returning to the rotation would be the team's last smart retooling in that division, bringing up Jordan Wicks in time for him to be ready to strike everybody out does make me feel like their hard work paid off.

Plus, August has also provided Seiya Suzuki with a chance to return to the conversation. The prized Japanese outfielder hadn't succeeded a great deal since last April, but Suzuki has improved, and is hitting .333 this month with 19 RBIs and 5 homers. Suzuki is a strong hitter and reliable player, he's just a little streakier than the Cubs would like. I do think he's got some super seasons to give to the Cubs going forward, and his heating up now does make me excited for the rest of this season.

The Cubs' growing momentum could either lead to a surprise division title or a boost in their wild card case. Either way, though the Cubs could be looking at a lower seed, they have enough depth and momentum to not completely make me confident that they'll be an early departure from the playoff picture if they do make it.

Coming Tomorrow- When I do the end of the year superlatives post, I usually denote a 'team most depressing to talk about each week'. Most times it's a really boring last place team. But this year, it might be the team that had the single worst luck, where it pained me to even report what was happening. Tomorrow, a pitcher from that team.

You Seiya Want a Revolution

 

Yesterday, the Chicago Cubs scored 21 points against the Pittsburgh Pirates. They were able to do this without Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Joc Pederson or any of the plethora of Cubs regulars who have left in the last few years. This puts away the belief that everything that made these Cubs teams great was shuttled out the window at the earliest sign of collapse.

Not everything. Not yet.

Why else would the Cubs leapfrog San Diego in the race for Seiya Suzuki? The Padres had him, Yu Darvish was helping him pick a neighborhood, it was a done deal...and yet he still chose the Cubs. Clearly he knew what this team still had. Because Suzuki has jumped right into the mix and is performing already like an MLB regular.

To give you an idea of the battery damage this team can do, everybody in the lineup except for Rafael Ortega was responsible for an RBI. Every Cub who appeared got at least one hit. 5 players got 3 or more hits- those players were Seiya Suzuki, Willson Contreras, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner and, surprisingly enough, Alfonso Rivas. Rivas had a 5-RBI day as well, putting him onto the radar loudly, and giving the more modest Frank Schwindel some serious competition. Hoerner, Contreras and Jonathan Villar had at least 3 RBIs as well. And all the while Kyle Hendricks, who I thought was cooked last year, went 7 innings allowing only 2 hits and no runs. 

I'm not implying that these same Cubs are going to show up every game. And I'm not saying it's because it's this specific Pirates team, and Zach Thompson, that bring it out. But if this is what this team is capable of...we really have been underestimating them.

Nico Hoerner is finally hitting at an MLB level. David Robertson and Mychal Givens have been on point in relief, and it's a joy to see Robertson truly excel in the ninth again. Of all the non-Hendricks starters, Drew Smyly has been the surest bet, though Marcus Stroman is working on it. Wisdom, Happ and Contreras are ensuring that the power core of this team isn't dissipating when the regulars leave. So many good baseball things are happening, and I'm glad that they seem to be in the race, even if the Cardinals and Brewers might be a bit more conventional.

I hope they, and Suzuki, keep it up.

Coming Tonight: One of the top free agents of the offseason. Wonder if he picked the right team.