Who Needs Chaperones Anyway?

 

The current status of the A's is that they're down to only five people on the active roster who are over 30. One of them, Brent Rooker, is 30 exactly. The others include 3 relievers and Jeffrey Springs. It's just them, plus Severino and a couple other spare parts on the IL. Everyone else is under 30, young and thriving. Is it a coincidence that the A's have lapped the Angels right as the last major thirtysomething in the lineup got DFA'd?

Here are the latest batch of young people who have been aiding the Athletics: Luis Morales, a 22-year-old starter who's 2-0 with a 1.19 ERA in 5 games this year; Colby Thomas, another young outfielder who already has 4 homers and 13 RBIs in 29 games; Max Muncy, who finally seems to be getting the hang of this whole MLB thing and has 9 homers; Darell Hernaiz, who's backing up Jacob Wilson at short and is a .250 hitter himself; and Jack Perkins, who, before he got injured, was becoming a solid enough fixture in the ninth. We can also lump in Jacob Lopez, who was having a nice season in the rotation before his injury, with a 4.08 ERA and 113 Ks. And now we even have the rookie Mason Barnett, a former Royals prospect who faced the Rangers for his debut last night.

That is a lot of youth, and a lot of rookies in big positions. You'd expect a few of them to not work, and Muncy, Hernaiz and Lopez all struggled for a bit before locking into gear. Pretty much every major piece of this team can remember those moments of struggling, like Lawrence Butler in 2023, or Rooker before he got to the A's, or Shea Langeliers before...like, June. A lot of them have clicked, which helps tremendously. Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers are the heart of this team, and they're all surging. Kurtz is headed for the Rookie of the Year, and not even Jacob Wilson can be too mad about that. Langeliers is looking at 30 homers, and it's not too far out of the realm of possibility for Rooker either. 

There's enough power on this team that it distracts from the fact that there's still some room for growth, like a few more solid rotation options or a better bullpen or slightly better defense. The important thing is that this is a team that can be an offensive match, even now, for competitors. Your worst A's team could be a slam dunk win for a competitor two years ago, and now with Kurtz, Rooker and Butler you can't quite be certain. Remember, the 4-homer Kurtz game happened in Houston. The Astros are clinging to a small lead in this division because of losses like that making them human. That couldn't have happened in 2023.

The A's, while still a bad team, are embracing their youth and getting way stronger. Next season will have a lot of questions answered, and I reckon they'll step even closer to a competitive idea. 

Coming Tonight: A Rockies infielder who was way better before he had to play for this specific version of the team.

Bean-Eaten

 

It sounds like the most David vs. Goliath thing ever. A big series in Boston that the Red Sox are desperate to win to stay ahead of the Yankees in the standings, against one of the worst teams in baseball, the Pittsburgh Pirates. This is not the series you want to get caught sleeping on, and yet the Sox have already dropped two games. At home. 

And only one of them was a Skenes start.

That's the thing that kinda shocked me. Last night was a Skenes start, but it was also the Sox putting up Payton Tolle, a schtarker of a pitching prospect with some serious promise, against a team that looked like a gimme of a debut. Truthfully, Tolle didn't do too badly, only giving up 2 earned runs and striking out 8. But any team against Paul Skenes is gonna have to do a lot of work. Skenes gave up 7 hits and only 1 guy got home. His ERA remains at 2.05, and his Ks grow to 187, which honestly feels like restraint. There's a lot of Skenes copycats out there, young fireballers that teams are using to say 'we've got one too', and most of them just aren't stacking up. Misiorowski comes close, Rhett Lowder, when healthy, comes close, but Skenes is just unstoppable, and this Cy Young solidified what everyone already knew, that he's just on a completely different level from everyone else.

But pitching is only one factor. Having a good Paul Skenes start, and a comeback performance from Johan Oviedo, wasn't the problem. The problem is how can this team outhit everybody else? And somehow, the Pirates have been outhitting the Sox. Both games have featured star performances from Tommy Pham and Andrew McCutchen, two guys in their 30s. Today's game had a barrage of runs from the core, including a homer from Oneil Cruz, an RBI from Bryan Reynolds, and some small-ball from Spencer Horwitz. This is not a terrific lineup, and there's a lot of guys playing solely because there aren't better options, but right now they're outhitting the Sox. Which is insane.

The Pirates have won 8 of their last 10 games, are getting better production from Jared Triolo and Henry Davis, have seen incredible progress from long-man Bubba Chandler, and, most importantly, have a rotation plan of Skenes-Keller-Burrows-Ashcraft-Oviedo that could keep them moving forward. Yes, somebody could get dealt, and Skenes isn't looking long for this club, but a working 5 seemed so distant and now here it is. 

I'm not saying that something's clicked for good, and seeing as the Dodgers are up next it'd take a miracle to get past them with their dignity intact. But after really struggling all season, the Pirates are at least ending the season on a much more confident, and optimistic, note than the heat of the season would have you believe. And this happening at Boston's expense is the icing on the cake.

Coming Tomorrow- This has been a season of pivotal rookies in Sacramento. Here's one you don't hear about as much. 

Two Rookies, One Plate

 

There's a lot of intriguing catching platoons out there this year. The Braves are using Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy equally yet still emphasizing Baldwin. The Angels are using Logan O'Hoppe and Travis d'Arnaud relatively interchangeably solely because I think they're paying d'Arnaud too much to refer to him as a full backup. The Rangers are using Kyle Higashioka as the primary and Jonah Heim as the glorified backup, and Higgy seems to somehow be working more. And now we have the White Sox, after breaking into the season with a Matt Thaiss/Korey Lee catching duo that was working so much better than expected that the Sox had to deal Thaiss to Tampa, going with two rookie catching options and both working.

It helps that these two have not only been the prizes of the White Sox's farm system, they were the prizes of other farm systems as well. Edgar Quero was an Angels catching prospect [which makes it even funnier that O'Hoppe wasn't even homegrown], and he was traded to the White Sox in that ill-fated Lucas Giolito deal. Kyle Teel, along with Chase Meidroth and current Birmingham Baron Braden Montgomery in that matter, was brought to Chicago in a much more even trade for Garrett Crochet, who has thankfully continued at ace levels. Two aces are in other markets, ironically both in Boston, and in return the White Sox got a catching platoon that could last them a while.

The Teel/Quero duo has been a success so far, netting a 3.2 WAR cumulatively. Quero, as he started earlier, has the firmer stats, he's hitting .282 with 79 hits in 87 games, plus 35 RBIs. He's also the better defensive catcher, with above-average numbers there. Kyle Teel is the more powerful hitter, he's got 51 hits and 25 RBIs in 54 games, hitting .300 and sporting an .802 average. I think Quero is more likely to be the everyday catcher going forward, whereas Teel is more likely to be moved to either 1st or DH. Keeping both in the lineup is probably optimal, because they're both great at different things and are both important to this team's upbringing. It's the same reason Lenyn Sosa will likely still factor into things even as Chase Meidroth gets to play 2nd everyday.

That's another very good thing about this season for the White Sox: they can finally see answers at multiple positions. Colson Montgomery and Chase Meidroth are looking like a long term DP combo. Quero and Teel are both great catching options for the foreseeable future. Miguel Vargas, at the very least, can be an anchor at third for the next few years. And Shane Smith, Davis Martin and Sean Burke are already viable major league starting options. Now, because it's so few, you're seeing this team accommodate lots of replacement level players just so they can finish the season. Michael Taylor's starting in center, Brooks Baldwin and Curtis Mead are in the mix, and the bullpen mostly consists of people booted off better rosters. Occasionally one of those will do well, like professional leadoff man Mike Tauchman and finally-healthy Martin Perez, who's been on yet another strong stretch. But it's a lot of filler.

The hope is that Teel, Quero, Montgomery and Meidroth can be the starting seeds of a team that can compete again. And if those guys are already doing well...it could be soon.

Coming Tonight: Last night, he faced one of the hottest young pitchers in the game while also being backed by another one of the hottest young pitchers in the game. So you can sort of understand why he's having a down year.

Hidden Cavalli

It's depressing how common it is for a player to go from a highly-touted prospect to 3 years of injury hell to 'what could have been' now. There's tons. Michael Kopech, Andrew Painter, Michael Soroka, arguably Walker Buehler now. So seeing where Cade Cavalli's ended up is a little upsetting. Cavalli in 2022 was one of the big can't miss prospects for a Nats team that was desperate to make a comeback. In a cycle where the Nats added people like MacKenzie Gore, Keibert Ruiz and C.J. Abrams, the hope was that Cavalli would add to that mix and bring the team back. In actuality, Cavalli made 1 start in 2022, got hurt, and missed the next two seasons.

So finally in August of 2025, Cavalli finally gets to be an everyday starter in the majors. He's 26, perfectly healthy, and wants to jumpstart something in Washington. His first four starts go really well, including 2 scoreless outings and two great starts against the Phillies. He's already looking like one of the best things to happen to the Nationals during this depressing second half.

...and then Cade Cavalli has to face the Yankees. And he promptly gets the snot beaten out of him. In two and a third innings, he gives up 8 runs on 8 hits, including 4 home runs. Let the record show that he also struck out 4, and I think two of them were Anthony Volpe.

It's not like people haven't come back from a rough start before. But this was the centerpiece of a comeback many years in the making, and a big moment that would have made, or broken, his legitimacy in the majors. And it lasted barely three innings. You can make the case that it was the way the wind was blowing for this Yankees team at this moment, or just how unlucky the Nats have been this year, but now the Nats have to rethink things yet again. They thought they had a surefire guy in Josiah Gray, he's been gone since early 2024. They thought they had a surefire guy in Mitchell Parker, he's 7-14 with a -1.2 WAR this year. They thought they had a workable piece in D.J. Herz, he's been AWOL this year. So now if Cavalli isn't gonna work either, and they're down to Gore, Jake Irvin, Brad Lord and a frigging prayer...that doesn't exactly fill the Nationals with confidence that they're gonna compete anytime this decade.

The Nationals have James Wood, C.J. Abrams, Dylan Crews, and the possibility of Robert Hassell and Brady House working at the MLB level. They have Keibert Ruiz for the rest of the decade, but he's been shockingly average. Who knows if the Nats will feel they'll need to trade some of these guys in order to achieve prospects that work. And it's insane that I have to make that statement after everyone they got in the 2021 rebuild.

Coming Tomorrow- Speaking of rebuilds, a rookie catcher who's taken to the majors extremely well.

Fast and Loose

 

The good news is that for the first time since arguably Carl Crawford, the Tampa Bay Rays have a genuine base running talent in their midst. The bad news is stealing bases seems to be the only thing he's good at; despite 38 steals, Chandler Simpson is an outfield liability and has a 6.85 OPS despite a .297 average. He gets singles, but he's not a great contact performer. But man does he get on base. 

This is the grey area the Rays lie in once again, in yet another period of mediocrity cut from the same cloth as their pre-2020 teams. They're certainly one of the most intriguing teams in the bigs, even if they aren't really one of the best. Having Junior Caminero up and hitting certainly helps; Caminero is on track for a 40+ homer season and an 100+ RBI season after being an All-Star starter at 21. It's very helpful that the Rays can see the future of their team in a young player who isn't about to throw it all away for a felony. Similarly promising is Carson Williams, a 22-year-old shortstop prospect who's already hitting .316 after 5 games in the majors, meaning he's already an offensive upgrade over Taylor Walls. But then again so is my grandmother. Williams, Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and arguably Chandler Simpson are pieces this team can build on, to the point where if they ever figure out this stadium nonsense, they'll have a competitive team to fill seats there.

But everything else for right now is more of the sideshow stuff that Cash teams are known for. Witness Bob and Ian, the incredible Seymour twins, two guys named Seymour who are both rookies for the Rays and ARE NOT RELATED, nor are they related to Carson Seymour, a third rookie for the Giants! Marvel at Ha-Seong Kim, who spent four glorious seasons in San Diego then completely forgot how to play baseball the second he got to Tampa! Watch in amazement as Jake Mangum, a 30-year-old rookie, seeks to have a breakout season on a team that doesn't even want to pay its 28-year-olds! 

Right now some of the most crucial Rays are scrub relievers having nice months. Garrett Cleavinger, Eric Orze...what else can you say about them other than 'well they relieve well'. At least Pete Fairbanks is a proven success, but compared to prior Fairbanks seasons this isn't much. The Rays used to be known for their DIY bullpens, now they're just like everybody else. 

The odd part is there hasn't really been a watershed moment of 'this doesn't work anymore' for these Rays teams. They're still thinking it's a viable tactic. They're probably gonna let Lowe, Fairbanks and Diaz, the sole remnants of the 2020 team, go in the offseason, probably not pick up Kim's option, and possibly even cut Taylor Walls. All to save room for a youth movement they probably won't pay because of a superstar they paid millions to who'll never play again. It's a little sad in a sense, or it is the moment you stop laughing.

Coming Tomorrow- He was having a breakout season four years in the making and then in came the Yankees to ruin it.

Only When I Raf

 

I wonder how Miguel Cabrera thinks about the fact that the Tigers got extremely good the year after he retired. I wonder how Nomar Garciaparra thinks about the fact that the Red Sox won their first championship in years after trading him to the Cubs. I wonder how Jason Giambi feels about the fact that his Yankees tenure bookends World Series wins but doesn't include any. I bet they'd know how Rafael Devers feels. He asked to be traded because he was going nowhere in Boston and wanted to play for a competitor, so he gets dealt to San Francisco, who has the worst record in baseball since he joined. And the Sox are competing without him. 

Almost as if he was the problem. 

Look, the thing about the player as powerful as Rafael Devers is that we could say all these disparaging things about him and then he'll bounce back and make it all moot. Bryce Harper was the butt of a lot of jokes when he left the Nationals in 2019 and then the Nats won a World Series without him despite the team being built around him. The joke was on the Nats in the end, as Bryce won an MVP in Philly, got to a World Series and will likely go into Cooperstown as a Phillie. So this first year, and this downfall, for Devers and the Giants may not ultimately be indicative of anything.

However...Rafael Devers was much better in Boston this year. We're still in the period from before he started finding the ball, that April period that pissed the Sox fans off. In 60 games with the Giants, Devers has hit .226, with 36 RBIs and 10 homers. The DH that we feared Devers would be replacing, Wilmer Flores, is an upgrade. It's nice that Devers can swing to 1st or play 3rd again, but he's not hitting like he did and it's costing the team. You'd think a team with Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, Logan Webb and Rafael Devers would compete but it's not. They've run into some awful luck, like a dissipated core from last year, the flaws of Heliot Ramos, the back half of the rotation snapping off and the awful move of trading Mike Yastrzemski to a team with a similar record. If Devers was actually playing like he was in Boston, they'd maybe have 5 or so more wins and be right in the thick of it. 

There's a chance that this team somehow comes together next year and quiets all the critics, but as it stands right now this isn't pretty, and Devers himself doesn't come out too great. We'll see what the long term ramifications are.

Coming Tonight: He steals a lot of bases, and right now that seems to be enough.

A Waste of a Good Rotation

 

Here's a fun fact that many of you probably haven't even realized: the Los Angeles Angels have only used six starting pitchers this year, not counting openers. Their entire Opening Day rotation has 22 starts or more, and Victor Mederos is swinging into Jack Kochanowicz's spot this month. It's very funny, considering that 2024 ended with the promise of Caden Dana and Sam Aldegheri factoring into this team that the rotation's been six guys and none of them are especially prospect-y. I guess Kochanowicz counts, but after this season it feels like he's been pitching for 5 years.

So it's wild that Jose Soriano, Yusei Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson and Kyle Hendricks have all started more than 25 games and are all in pretty nice shape. Hendricks is a little closer to plain 'good' than the rest, but after his tumultuous 2024, where he flirted with greatness but also had torrid months around it, we'll take it. Despite a 5.04 ERA, Hendricks still has 87 Ks and 6 wins, plus a 1.2 WAR. He's had worse seasons. Same with Tyler Anderson, who's 2-8 yet still has 103 strikeouts. If it were a 6 ERA like Sandy Alcantara in the first half I'd be worried, but he's still a solid pitcher who's at the mercy of a bad team.

Soriano and Kikuchi have given some pretty strong campaigns, though, for anybody. Kikuchi got an ASG nod earlier this year, and while he's leveled out a bit since July, he still has a 3.68 ERA and 156 Ks. I did not expect Kikuchi to have much longevity over here after his blah rookie year in 2019, but he's been really strong for a number of great teams. Jose Soriano has continued his quiet come-up as a reliable, consistent starter in LA, and has a 9-9 record with a 3.85 ERA and 136 Ks. Soriano's had a lot of dominant starts this year, and it does point towards an even stronger peak coming very soon.

Now...having a great rotation is one thing, but the Angels just haven't given it much of a team though. Hence all those lopsided records. The Angels are looking like they'll have two 30+ homer guys this year in Taylor Ward and Jo Adell, and yet in a season where Mike Trout was healthy for the majority of the year, he's probably topping out at 25 without a late surge. You'd waited for Trout to be back and healthy and gives you the first human numbers of his career. How upsetting is that?

After this season, the Angels will be losing Anderson, Hendricks, Kenley Jansen and Luis Rengifo, and I wouldn't be too shocked if they tried trading Taylor Ward as well. Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, Jose Soriano and Christian Moore will hopefully get to lead this team back from the depths. And if nothing happens next year, it will, at the very least, be the last year of that wretched Anthony Rendon contract, so the dark cloud will lift relatively soon. 

Coming Tomorrow- Speaking of dark cloud, a guy who completely flipped the script on two teams upon a trade, and not in the way he was intending. 

A Brand Diminished

 

Here's a fun stat: since the 21st century began, the St. Louis Cardinals have only finished a season under .500 twice: in 2007, the year after they won a World Series, and in 2023. Every other season they've finished over, with 16 playoff appearances, 11 division titles, four league championships and 2 World Series rings. The 2010s, the Cardinals were routinely excellent, with 5 seasons of over 90 wins. It felt like they were in the NLCS every year, and were able to bring in terrific players, build excellent prospects and put together great teams out of next to nothing. 

The 2020s so far have been a lot less noteworthy for the Cardinals. They've made the playoffs 3 times but have never made it out of the wild card round. They never truly recovered after firing Mike Shildt, as Oli Marmol's reign as manager has been particularly divisive. After the 2022 playoff collapse they've struggled to get consistent production out of Nolan Arenado, Miles Mikolas or Nolan Gorman. For the first time in a while, the Cardinals banked on a lot of prospect that weren't worth it, guys like Matthew Liberatore, Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson, Juan Yepez and Andrew Knizner. And that turned into free agent signings that weren't worth it, like Steven Matz, Lance Lynn and, ultimately, Willson Contreras, who's beginning to really frustrate the fans. Apparently the Cardinals posted their lowest attendance in the history of Busch Stadium III the other day. It's a frustrating product now, and the Mozeliak factor has made it even more of a strain for Cardinals fans.

I never would have predicted this. Especially after the last two decades. How the Cardinals could go from thriving to completely at war with its own brand in just 5 years.

There are pieces of this team that have promise, but they're not going the direction they should be. Alec Burleson is a very good hitter, and is better at contact stuff than true power. Burleson's hitting .291 with 16 homers and 60 RBIs. He's just a big guy that loves to hit. He's not the most versatile guy there is, but he's a great lineup presence. I put Victor Scott Jr. in a similar category, where he's fast and great on defense but only hits .233. The ideal five-tool guy that the Cardinals were promised hasn't shown up. Nolan Gorman's a .225 hitter, Jordan Walker's even more limited, Lars Nootbaar strikes out too much and Andre Pallante isn't consistent. Brendan Donovan and Masyn Winn are the closest thing this team has to sure bets in their prime, and even they have their flaws. Donovan I see getting dealt in the offseason.

The best time for the Cardinals to actually benefit from their replenished farm system is actually coming up. Mikolas will be gone, Arenado might be dealt, and the emphasis will be on seeing about a lower-key, youth-led version of this team. There's a ton of prospects that could make the leap, and hopefully they won't be rushed. And if that works then the Cardinals could be back on track. If not...the 2020s are gonna be a decade that won't even be discussed as much as the 90s in Cardinals history..

Coming Tonight: An Angels pitcher whose steadiness and consistency was welcome in yet another noncompetitive year.

The Good News is You Get to Start Everyday

 

The Twins are currently going through what I can only describe as the major league equivalent of open tryouts. They've got a few positions set in stone, like centerfield and 2 rotation spots, and pretty much everything else is up in the air. They're not competing, they're already below the Orioles in the AL standings, and they're trending further downward. And so we're just throwing people out there at this point.

The good side of that is that the guys who've been platooned the past few years and haven't been able to start everyday are finally getting more opportunities to play. Brooks Lee had to wait for injuries to both Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis to make his debut last year, and until Correa got dealt he was a utility guy. Now he's got short to himself. At the very least, Lee is producing, with 13 homers and 54 RBIs, but he's doing this with barely any defensive support and not a lot of contact hitting. Lee, like Lewis, was a prized prospect that has matured into an above-average infield bat without much versatility. It's good that he's hitting alright but it doesn't feel like he's doing much else right now.

Already, the Twins have been chucking some recent trade returns out there to see if there were any immediate dividends. James Outman is hitting about as well as he did in LA, Alan Roden stunk it up then got hurt, and both Mick Abel and Taj Bradley got lit up in their premier Minnesota starts. It sucks cause both Abel and Bradley have flirted with greatness, but this isn't a very comforting circumstance. Having to pitch for this team now, to essentially keep the lights on, isn't a great way to reestablish yourself. 

The really frightening bit is that the only people who are still on this team, and healthy,  and have a WAR of more than 1 are Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan...and Luke Keaschall, who's been active since the deadline. Two stars and a rookie. Everybody else is replacement level, and a lot of other guys are just good at one thing. Matt Wallner's fundamentally a good hitter, but he hits .217. Royce Lewis is good for the occasional long ball but they're way more spread out this year. Ryan Jeffers is an above-average hitter but a liability behind the plate. This is a team that seemed to be a swiss army knife of intriguing young guys that could be platooned, and now that they all have room to start they're not accomplishing anything.

I hate to say it, but next year might not be pretty either. It might be more of this. Sifting pieces around until they fall into holes. Who knows if Ryan or Buxton will even stick around. I know Buxton wants to retire as a Twin but I'd prefer he retire with some dignity.

Coming Tomorrow- A big guy who hits all sorts of stuff, and even he can't make the Cardinals good.

A Class of His Own

 

In talking about Giancarlo Stanton last week, it occurred to me that there's a whole class of power hitters coming to HOF voting that are going to be very difficult to discuss. A bunch of these guys were professional home run hitters without much variance or versatility, but the degree at which they were good at power hitting still made them consistent threats. The top ones of these are guys like Nelson Cruz and Edwin Encarnacion. Neither are hall of famers, but both are among the best power hitters of their generations. The HOF voting establishment has already shunned Jose Bautista, fairly, and Carlos Delgado, unfairly. And look, I do get that simple power-hitting isn't enough sometimes. Dave Kingman isn't in, Albert Belle isn't in, Harold Bai-oh wait. 

And part of me thinks there honestly should be a Hall of Power Hitters. Because there's some guys that are never gonna be Hall of Famers but were unrivaled in just how unstoppable they were at the plate. The BBWAA has instituted a Best Reliever award for next year, so clearly they want to award people who don't fit the normal stats. Maybe power hitting is next? As much as we love to talk about guys like Miguel Cabrera, Ichiro Suzuki and Chipper Jones, sometimes a J.D. Martinez or a Cecil Fielder is important too.

Which brings me to Marcell Ozuna. Marcell Ozuna is still a somewhat controversial MLB figure because of the abuse allegations that have hounded him his whole career, and the fact that the Braves have chosen to meet him at his strengths rather than make him do something he won't be good at. As a member of the Braves, Ozuna has hit 147 home runs and 403 RBIs, and posts an .842 OPS. This season alone he has 20 homers and 61 RBIs, and if he makes this a 25-homer year, his fifth, it'll bring him to 300 career dingers. The man is just built for power hitting, and the fact that he also mixes in contact stuff also makes him invaluable for a team like the Braves. Last year he hit .300. In 2020, the pandemic-shortened year, he hit .338. He can be the all-purpose guy if he needs to, but even if he isn't he's still lethal.

It's a pity that there's not much left for the Braves to really do this year. Ozuna's one of a handful of people on this team keeping the lights on. Hurston Waldrep came up around the Bristol speedway game, and is 4-0 with an 0.73 ERA in that period. Albies and Harris have been hot as hell in the last month. Matt Olson leads the league in doubles with 34 and might be the team's MVP this year. The Baldwin-Murphy platoon has a combined 4.4 WAR. Granted, starting pitching is still a problem, and guys like Joey Wentz, Cal Quantrill and Bryce Elder are being thrown out there because the better options are all hurt. The bullpen isn't a ton better. 

The Braves will likely learn from this season, and come roaring back in 2026. They're just gonna need better injury luck. That killed them this year. 

Coming Tonight: A shortstop prospect who waited a while to start everyday, and now that he's able to...the team really isn't what it used to be.

Right Where He Belongs

 

Remember all that nonsense a couple months ago about how the Red Sox were so happy with the prospect of an Abreu-Rafaela-Anthony outfield that they were willing to deal Jarren Duran to the Phillies? Wasn't that a weird moment? Cause they'd already dumped Devers, which we're now seeing was a good idea, and the prevailing theory was that Duran was one of those Devers-sized egos who was holding the Sox back. And then the Sox got really good, and Duran finally burst into action, and then nobody ever questioned him again.

Jarren Duran, almost since his come-up, has just been this perfect figure for Boston sports. Last year he yelled a slur at an opposing fan, and seeing that said slur is passed around as much as 'dude' in some parts of Boston, it gained him even more fans. Every part of Duran's personality that would make him an abhorrent figure in most other markets, like his refusal to get the vaccine during the 2021 season, his threatening to take action against a fan that made fun of his mental health issues, and his very recent much-tamer slur directed at yet another fan, further ingratiates him to the Boston massive. And yes, fundamentally Duran does seem like the sort of Shea Hillenbrand, Jeff Kent type loudmouthed blowhard, and he's still in danger of becoming that. But he's not really lashing out at Boston fans specifically. He is completely with this team, and with this fanbase, and he's just protective of both his image and his team's path. So I think Jarren Duran is on the side of good, even if he has very menacing vibes.

At the end of the day, Duran is coming through on the promise of a starring role. This year he leads the team in hits with 131, and the league in triples with 12. He's got 12 homers and 70 RBIs. He's only hitting .250, but he's just been a consistent, if not-too-showy, presence in this lineup. Already he's got a homer tonight against the O's. I think what helps him is the fact that it's not solely up to him, and that Alex Bregman, Trevor Story, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony and now Nathaniel Lowe can all have hero moments as well. This is the power of a spread-out, even Sox team without too much emphasis on certain players. It's why clearing Devers out was a good idea.

The Red Sox looked very good against the Yankees, and it's mostly because they had people like Brayan Bello and Garrett Crochet completely silence us. I'm not completely on board with this rotation, because guys like Dustin May or Richard Fitts aren't as consistent as those top two, but if those two are as on in the playoffs as they just were, nobody's getting past them. I was worried Crochet would be hurt by now, but he's a sleeper Cy Young pick, with 14 wins, a 2.38 ERA and 207 Ks. That's an incredible year, that'd be even more incredible if Tarik Skubal wasn't in his prime. The lineup is also pretty scary, but having the pitching be that on is a huge factor.

I do think the Sox have a good shot at a playoff spot, and could surprise some people if they hit the right momentum. I kinda wish Duran were a bit more consistent, but maybe he builds. 

Coming Tomorrow- Speaking of controversial MLB figures, a key power figure without much left to accomplish this year.

Lourdes Help Us

 

So, uh...the Diamondbacks are 13-7 in August. They've had three three-game winning spells, then a four-game one that was just upended by a Reds win. They're in third in the NL West, ahead of the Giants by a game [the Giants had a nice weekend as well]. I'm not particularly thinking anything's going to happen, but it's been nicer to watch than a lot of this D-Backs season.

Even without Suarez, the power production is still palpable. Corbin Carroll's headed for a 30-homer year, Ketel Marte's headed for a 25-homer year. And Lourdes Gurriel, despite some inconsistency, has been producing a lot more recently. He's at 76 RBIs on the season. You're also seeing a lot more input from Blaze Alexander, who's been a backup til very recently. Suarez went, then Alexander got a job, and he's got 5 homers and 15 RBIs in 43 games. Could be the guy next year. I think the key to this team, even as the rotation has diminished, is grouping together a bunch of guys with high OPSs who can slap the ball around even if it's not pretty. You've got Carroll and Marte being on top of their game, and everything else that produces is just good enough right now.

But yes, it is a bit of an issue not having Merrill Kelly or Corbin Burnes in this rotation, cause you have Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez picking up starts and doing their best. You occasionally get a good start from either, and Pfaadt has 12 wins, but that 4.95 ERA tells the real story. Zac Gallen is 9-13 with a 5.18 ERA, and it's clear that he's pooped from holding up the team for the last 5 years. Ryne Nelson is doing well but if your best guy is Ryne Nelson it's not great. They've thrown Nabil Crismatt into a starting role because Anthony Desclafani got hurt. That's where we're at. 3 years ago they had all these guys that could get called up, guys like Drey Jameson and Tommy Henry. They have Yilber Diaz in the minors, they can start games. Are we really at the point in the season that it still feels worth it to not have kids up?

That's honestly the problem with this D-Backs team: I do not see the immediate next steps. They're convinced Jordan Lawlar is the next big piece of this team, but he's done nothing at the MLB level. Beyond him, I have no idea who the next foundational piece to keep this team alive would be. Druw Jones won't be up for another couple years at this rate. Tommy Troy could be next year, but is he just a seat filler or is he THE guy? Same with A.J. Vukovich, who'd be a great source of power despite owing to the same 'light on defense' problem a lot of this team has.

For now, I guess they hold onto the production stuff and hope they can build a decent enough team around it next year. Cause this one didn't do the trick.

Coming Tonight: One of the true stars of the Red Sox team that silenced the Yanks for the better part of the weekend.

The Sleeper Pick

 

Today, the Rangers won a game against the Cleveland Guardians, their nearest wild card competitor, and lapped them in the standings. They are now at .500, while Cleveland is now 1 game under .500. This puts the Rangers third in line for a wild card spot, and cements their status as the uncontrollable variable in the AL.

Honestly, this role has served them well before. In 2023 they spent a lot of time being the leader in the AL West, then upstairs demanded the Astros win the West again so they got hot midyear, and the Rangers swelled late to sneak into the playoffs anyway. As a lower wild card seed they outclassed their competitors and eventually took down the Astros to make, and win, a World Series. Then last year everybody got hurt and it didn't happen.

So as the Rangers begin to squeeze their way into a picture that was looking pretty solid before, it occurs to me that perhaps this is Bruce Bochy's new legacy. The Giants teams always took 1st in the West and rolled from there, save for the 2014 team which was a wild card pick that rolled. Then the Rangers was a wild card pick that rolled. Maybe...this is just what Bochy does now. He makes wild card teams into winners. He got a Rangers team to the finish by getting great seasons out of Jonah Heim, Josh Jung and Evan Carter, all of whom have been shakier since. Maybe now his legacy is getting a playoff team out of guys like Rowdy Tellez, Patrick Corbin, Josh Smith and Kyle Higashioka. 

What this does indicate is that some large pieces are gonna be out of commission. The Rangers just announced that Marcus Semien is likely missing the rest of the season. Semien, like usual, had a year where he stunk for the first two months then caught fire and became one of the team's best hitters. He'll finish the season with 108 hits, 62 RBIs and a 3.3 WAR, which isn't bad at all. Also currently missing are Evan Carter, Sam Haggerty and Jake Burger, who've been very helpful recently, and it's doubtful that Tyler Mahle will return this year. 

But the Rangers are still getting excellent quality from their biggest pieces. Nate Eovaldi has a 1.73 ERA, and it's a crime that more people aren't talking about him for a Cy Young. deGrom's having his fullest, and best, season in years, 10-5 with a 2.76 ERA. Merrill Kelly had an excellent start today and is on track to be a very useful starter down the stretch. Corey Seager's having another career year with a 5.6 WAR. Wyatt Langford is finally blossoming into the star the Rangers knew he'd be, with 19 homers and 52 RBIs. And now Tellez is heating up as well. 

There's still a lot of elements at play, like the Royals going at a steady enough pace, or the three teams in the spots at the moment not doing a ton of moving, but the Rangers are definitely a factor in this, and could still spoil some teams. We've got a month, crazier things have happened in a month.

Coming Tomorrow- A hard-hitting outfielder doing his best to move the needle slightly as the end of another non-contending season wraps up.

Noelvi, No Problem

 

After half of a season of plugging people in at corner positions and getting absolutely nothing from them, the Cincinnati Reds finally have the opposite problem, platooning three of the hottest-hitting third basemen in baseball. Noelvi Marte and Miguel Andujar are trading off at third while each hitting .300+ as a Red, under Ke'Bryan Hayes who isn't doing too badly there either. While Jeimer Candelario sits on his couch and shakes his head.

Noelvi Marte getting to finish this season as an above-average 3B option is an inexplicable but welcome development. For a while he was either refusing to hit at the major league level or getting himself suspended the exact moment he started hitting. Him and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were switching off infuriating the Reds' fanbase for a while, and so soon after Nick Senzel flamed out. His first half was actually an improvement, one that I think a lot of people, including myself, were hesitant to embrace because of the PED suspension. But...Marte's hitting .306 this year, with 10 homers and 40 RBIs in 58 games. I think Fernando Tatis has taught us that PED suspensions don't mean as much anymore if the player is willing to put in the work to erase it. Marte, like another baseball Marte, seems to be doing that. I think Ke'Bryan Hayes might be 3B1 right now, 

It couldn't come at a better time for the Reds, who've had some excellent wins recently against teams like the Phillies, Angels and, most notably, the Brewers. That Brewers series was an all-out war, with some games being decided by the Reds' bullpen mucking it up, or by an errant Brewers bench guy. The starting pitching was never an issue for these guys, though, as Abbott, Greene, Singer, Martinez and Littell have all looked great recently. Greene came back off the IL and has been dominant in both starts back, including a gem against Philly. Andrew Abbott looked awesome against the Brewers last week, and continues to put up Cy Young quality numbers. And Zack Littell has continued his strong year since coming over from Tampa, with a 3.06 ERA in 3 starts. The bullpen seems to be healing, as I think the key is just keeping Joe La Sorsa the hell out of there. Considering how quick the Reds were to get rid of Jake Fraley it's concerning they keep letting La Sorsa out. Then again, I'm a Phils fan and can't see why Jordan Romano's still employed. 

The Reds are barely outside of a wild card spot. Their main competitor is the Mets, who've fallen very far and are only a half game ahead of them. This weekend the Reds play the Diamondbacks, then next week they play the Dodgers, who are also falling. This is insanely doable, as it has been the last couple years. All that remains is for the Reds to stay out of their own way. Can it be done this year?

Coming Tonight: Every year for the past five years he's been literally inconsolable in April or May yet by the end of the season he's one of the most integral hitters on the team. The Rangers must be used to this by now.

The Bus Stops Here

 

Okay. So the Marlins aren't a playoff team. As cool as their July surge was, they're not getting over .500, and they're way too inexperienced to craft a decent competitive performance. They also just lost Kyle Stowers to an injury, and Edward Cabrera seems to be calming down tremendously in August. So this really seems like a 'the horror is over' season without the benefit of a great ending.

However. I now know way more about the direction of this Marlins team than I did last year. Because last year, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby and Eury Perez were all question marks, and now we know the team can rely on them. And last year, this Marlins team didn't have Liam Hicks, Ronny Henriquez, Agustin Ramirez, Heriberto Hernandez, Jakob Marsee or Janson Junk in position to succeed, and now they do. Hicks might be a more confident catching choice going forward than Fortes, Henriquez joins Bender as an excellent relief option, Hernandez has been hot this month, Marsee has been hitting like a storm ever since the call-up, and Junk allowed for some stability in June.

Of all of them, Agustin Ramirez might be the most important piece. The Marlins have, in the same farm system, two different pieces that can absolutely annihilate the ball despite some sloppy mechanics. They have Ramirez and they have Deyvison de los Santos. De los Santos hit 40 homers in the minors last year, and the fact that he's only hit 12 this year probably tells you why he hasn't made the majors yet. Ramirez got off to the better start this year, and had more contact luck in Jacksonville, which is why he's here. So far, despite being a downgrade defensively, Ramirez has 18 home runs and 56 RBIs, and has been one of the team leaders in production. Ramirez has the second-highest slugging percentage on the team, being Stowers and Hernandez. Even if all Ramirez will be is a power-hitting DH, that's still a good thing for the Marlins, as they need guys like that. Stowers, Marsee, Hernandez and Ramirez all look to contribute to this team for the foreseeable future, and the power numbers are gonna be insane if they all continue to pitch in like this.

Ultimately this team is gonna need to figure out how to keep their starters in one place without anybody getting hurt or falling off. They seem to have gotten Alcantara working, but they've gotten 3 straight bad starts from Cabrera. Weathers is still hurt, Garrett probably isn't showing up at all this year. Perez has been pretty good at least. If those five were all good at the same time we wouldn't be talking about what could have happened. But they all picked their moments and everything was spread out. With Ryan Gusto and Adam Mazur in the mix, who knows if all 5 will even get that chance next year.

At the very least, it is unlikely the Marlins will finish in last, they will be somewhat close to .500, and Clayton McCullough will probably keep his job. The bar will be slightly higher next year though.

Coming Tomorrow- He's been stalling for so long on living up to his reputation as a prospect that his midyear turn has caught a lot of fans off guard.

Thinking Critically About Giancarlo Stanton

 

What's fascinating about the current period of baseball history, where there's less 500-club guys or less 3000-hit guys, is that you have to find other ways to gauge success, even if they're unconventional. Because there's more injuries, less contact hitting and more career one-dimensional sluggers, it's harder to say 'well that's one of the best guys to ever play' because all you can say is 'they hit a lot of home runs'. David Ortiz hit a lot of home runs, but he also could hit .300. Nelson Cruz hit a lot of home runs...and not much else. And that's most great power hitters right now. It's hard to make a case for enshrining a Kyle Schwarber or an Eugenio Suarez or even a Cody Bellinger, because of so many years where there wasn't much more to them than the power game.

And then you have the case of Giancarlo Stanton. Who is genuinely one of the best power hitters of the last 25 years, and one of the most powerful hitters of all time. When he hits one out, there's rarely a doubt. He led the league in homers twice, and was off to an incredible start in 2015 before an injury shortened his season. Right now Stanton is on pace for 450 home runs by the end of this year, and at 35 he's a shoo-in for the 500-home-run club before his career's done. His 2017 season was one of the all time greats by a hitter, with 59 bombs, 132 RBIs and a well-deserved MVP. Ten of Stanton's 16 seasons have had more than 25 home runs in them, and his career OPS stands at .874. 

Now...there's one or two things that have lessened his overall appeal as an all-time player. Firstly, his gameplay has gone down in quality since signing with the Yankees, as we all knew it would. He's a professional DH who usually hits around .225, and strikes out 140 times a year. The other issue is the amount of time lost to injuries, as his fullest season was back in 2018, and since then his most full season was 139 games in 2021. But here's what I will say to that point: Aaron Judge has been all but coronated as a Hall of Famer, and his long injury absences aren't going to hurt that.  His age 26 through 28 seasons were all marred by injury, and in 2023 an already-excellent year was hampered by a run-in with an outfield wall. And nobody talks about that as a factor because even in years that he was hurt he still hit 27 or more homers, even going 37 in 2023. Ken Griffey Jr. missed the majority of his Reds years, and you don't see people calling him a 'what could have been'. Same with Mike Trout.

Giancarlo Stanton right now, despite having missed half the year, is making up for lost time by providing one of the most insane hitting stretches he's had in a while. In 46 games, he's hitting .311 with 15 homers and 40 RBIs. The other night in Tampa he had a 2-homer game, which was his first since July 8th of 2023, a game I WAS IN ATTENDANCE FOR. And one of those was the longest hit ball I'd ever seen. Giancarlo still has more to prove, and is still one of the most fearsome power hitters in the game. Even if his injuries define his story, you cannot take that away from him.

The Yankees, meanwhile, are looking a ton better and speeding back towards 1st. Cam Schlittler has looked excellent in his early starts, and took the Rays deep last night without allowing any base-runners. Rodon has been the ace, Fried is slowly beginning to come back around, Warren will likely get ROY votes and Gil, while not 2024 dominant, has had some nice starts himself. The offense is coming alive yet again, and Jose Caballero already seems at home with this team. Ben Rice is also getting hot, which is a very good thing. I'm feeling a lot better about this team, and hopefully Big G leads them to a dignified end to the season.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically a big-time power hitter for the Marlins.

Act Like It's Business as Usual

 

Today the Houston Astros, with their trusted closer gone for a while and their setup man Bryan Abreu not a proven 9th inning man, signed Craig Kimbrel to a deal. Kimbrel has been...shaky in recent years. Last year for Baltimore he struggled mightily filling in for Felix Bautista. Earlier this year he was very good in two appearances for Atlanta but was cut rather than optioned due to his contract. It does generally look like Kimbrel looks better than he has, and could help the Astros. But Kimbrel also might be a small bandaid on a gaping wound. 

The Astros have lost 6 of their last 8. Four of those losses were shutouts, including a game that was nearly perfect. Three of those losses had deficits of 10 runs or more. As I'm writing this they're winning against the Orioles, but that's because of their ingenious strategy of making the Orioles leave Brandon Young in til the ninth and tire him out so that the next time they have to face him, a week later, he'll be manageable. But the rest of the O's series relies on starts from Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers and Spencer Arrighetti, all of whom have missed time this year due to injuries, and all of whom have seen their quality go down as a result. Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez have been great, but they've been lucky. 

Bryan Abreu, with a 2.8 WAR, has the fourth-highest WAR on the team. Higher than every hitter except for Jeremy Pena. Which means that only one hitter has a better WAR than 2.8. On the Astros, the team that normally outhits everyone. Could it be that letting Alex Bregman, George Springer and Kyle Tucker go results in a spottier overall lineup performance? Or maybe getting mixed signals on Yordan Alvarez's status a year after going through the same ordeal with Kyle Tucker points to bargaining with the inevitable? Look, the way this team used to be run, an injury to Taylor Trammell didn't used to be the sort of thing that hampered momentum. Or a missed month from Jake Meyers. 

It's down to the Bryan Abreus and Mauricio Dubons and Victor Caratinis of this team, and that's why there's been such a drop-off. Even plugging Carlos Correa back into things can only do so much. He's hitting .333 with 2 homers and 8 RBIs, but he's running into the same problems he did in Minnesota, where the exclamation point he used to carry is basically gone and now he's just a halfway decent infield bat. Meanwhile, Abreu has a 1.58 ERA and 84 Ks in 56 innings. He's one of the best relief pieces in baseball. And he's arguably succeeding because there's no pressure on him. There's been pressure on Meyers and Trammell and Christian Walker to fill these roles and bring the team back and it's just not happening because the Astros are trying to pretend that nothing's different. The last couple years this has worked because the core has still been volatile. Here it's not fooling anyone.

The one thing the Astros have to be grateful for is that the Mariners are falling at a similar rate. But next the Astros have to play the Rockies and Angels, two teams who've played the spoiler for similar competitors, while the Mariners have to play the A's, Guardians and Rays. You never know when the momentum will finally swing someone else's way.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the most powerful hitters of his generation by far.

Took Me Awhile to Get There

 

Here are two customs that it really shouldn't have taken me til August to make. I know. I have my reasons.

In the case of Yoshinobu Yamamoto's, I was being a little selfish. Last year I made Yamamoto's custom in March as one of the earlier ones of the season, and I didn't want to do him really early two years in a row, even as he went off to a great start in April. Then as he stayed strong in the first half, I went towards more pressing subjects, like Freeman and Ohtani. And for the last couple months I'd just assumed I'd done one already. So now I am posting a Yoshinobu Yamamoto custom in mid-August...where his ERA is closer to 3, his record is closer to even and many more pitchers have lapped him for the Cy Young conversation. Yamamoto's still having a great season, and he's been one of the most consistent starters for the Dodgers, but you can also see that he's not perfect, and has his human moments. Less of them than other Dodgers starters thankfully, but they're still there.

Matt Boyd, meanwhile, was just the victim of a really strong year for Cubs players. Every week I'd have someone that was just a little more pressing as a custom subject, like Carson Kelly as he vied for an ASG spot, or Shota Imanaga as he went on a strong stretch, or Michael Busch as he kept hammering homers. Boyd was always having a strong year, going 11-6 with a 2.46 ERA in 24 games, but as a 34-year-old starter in a field of much stronger, and younger, players, I was waiting for the downturn. It hasn't happened yet, though, and Boyd has been a very strong presence for this rotation in a year without Kyle Hendricks or Justin Steele. 

Ultimately, my sporadic schedule, and my other preferences in making customs, have left these two here. A moment where both their teams really aren't as exciting as they were months ago.

The Dodgers are in first place, and have a slight leg up on the Padres, but you're seeing the wheels beginning to come off. Monday night they blew a game to the Rockies thanks to Teoscar Hernandez misplaying a ball, and Mookie Betts doesn't want to move back to the outfield despite his superior defense there. They've lost Muncy again, as well as Edman and Kim, and the bulk of their bullpen is hurt, meaning Blake Treinen, Anthony Banda and Ben Casparius are working overtime. It's very good that Glasnow and Snell are back, and thriving, but there's still chunks of this team missing, and they're trying to 'but we're the Dodgers' their way to 1st anyway. I think there's still an outside chance that it can be done, but the Padres are gonna have more opportunities to knock them off their pedestal, and they won't all be missed.

The Cubs, meanwhile, have resigned themselves to the fact that they're not gonna finish in first this year, and now have shifted to making sure they still make the playoffs. Right now that's very doable, as they've won 70 games, and just took two games of a doubleheader from the all-too-ferocious Brewers. But they're still contending with a recent Kyle Tucker slump, a recent PCA slump, and the potential of an injury to Cade Horton, their newest rookie wunderkind. Getting Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon back, in decent quality, is a good thing. And seeing the bats pick up has also helped, especially in divisional games. The Cubs still will factor into this season's big picture, and I'm still thinking they'll break into the postseason for the first time with this squad. 

At the very least both these customs could post while these teams are still regarded as good. Who knows how long that'll last?

Coming Tonight: A reliever for a good team that no one has been able to hit...til very recently.

Timing the Eclipse

 

The story so far: the Cleveland Guardians sold at the deadline despite being in range of a wild card spot, while the Royals bought at the deadline despite having a lot longer to go to get to one. And now they're within a half-game of each other. One team going one direction, the other team colliding. And it makes me wonder one very important question: if the Guardians had done NOTHING, if they hadn't traded everybody pre-season, would they still have competed?

The Guardians nearly got to a World Series last year, and they did it with a new manager and a team that had been building for a while, plus a number of rookies that helped them grow, like Kyle Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, Daniel Schneemann and Cade Smith. Then during the offseason they trade Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez and Myles Straw, and let Matthew Boyd go in free agency. Then during the season, a number of the guys that ruled them in 2024, like Noel, Lane Thomas, David Fry, Brayan Rocchio and Tanner Bibee fail to deliver, Ben Lively gets injured after 9 games, the betting scandal takes out two of their best pen guys, and they now have to trade Paul Sewald and Shane Bieber. If they keep around the people whose absences put more pressure on Rocchio, Fry, Noel and Thomas, then maybe the team doesn't fall off this year, and they're actually able to stay in it. 

And even after the limited selling the Guardians did do, as they were also supposed to trade Emmanuel Clase, Steven Kwan and Carlos Santana but decided not to, didn't really stop them too much. Two weeks elapsed from the deadline and in that stretch they went 10-2. Gavin Williams became the ace they needed. Kyle Manzardo crossed 20 homers and cemented himself as a needed power bat. They were chasing the Yankees for that last wild card spot. And then last week they stopped in their tracks, the Yanks got hot, and now the Royals are at their feet.

Now...does it feel to anyone else like the Guardians miiiight be deliberately throwing this season? I cannot see any reason why, after last season went so well, this team now suddenly has to give up. I think this has to do with some of the points Tony Clark is raising in order to advocate for a salary floor, because owners really aren't encouraged to keep a team competitive, especially in mid-level markets like Cleveland. There's no reason the Guardians shouldn't have still gone for it this year, and the fact that they're sinking to the point of sitting out the playoffs seems very much like an inside job. 

Meanwhile, the Royals were a sleeper wild card team last year, had a smaller season this year, bought at the deadline and are now 12-6 since the deadline. Their deadline strategy, for the most part, has paid off: while Bailey Falter has struggled since coming over, former Padres also-ran Ryan Bergert has been fantastic in a starting role, with 2.70 ERA and 17 Ks in his first 3 starts in KC. Adam Frazier has gotten right back to where he left off last year, hitting .316 with 2 homers and 13 RBIs in 24 games. Mike Yastrzemski has 4 homers and 7 RBIs in 15 games, and is already being welcomed by the fans. This is a season that could have been halted by losing Caglianone and Bubic and there they go.

And where the rookies in Cleveland have failed to continue delivering, the young guys in Kansas City have continued to carry this team. Noah Cameron has taken on a lot of the load during his rookie season, starting 17 games, and doing so with a 2.47 ERA and a 7-5 record. Cameron is a very well-needed presence in a rotation that has already lost Bubic and Ragans. You've also seen a breakout year for Maikel Garcia, some excellent August production from John Rave, and even Vinnie Pasquantino FINALLY beginning to get hot. Obviously the stars, like Witt and Lugo and Perez and Wacha, can perform, but the Royals needed the supporting guys to step up [like the Guards' should have], and they have. And that's why I'm a lot more confident in them stepping into the wild card race.

I think either of these two could be fun presences in the mix for the AL, but with an already crowded field there may be room for only one, or neither if the Mariners can stop from completely bottoming out. They're both gonna have to see how their approaches will pan out, I guess.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who...sort of had the right idea leaving Cleveland?

Get With the Times

 

In 2022, the New York Mets were the talk of baseball. They were using Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso to get to the playoffs, and the Buck Showalter way of life was working. The centerpiece of the team was not only an incredible performance from Edwin Diaz, but the most intimidating walk-up in sports, with Diaz's ascent to the mount hailed by Timmy Trumpet and a spine-shattering fanfare. In 2022, it was the most epic entrance in sports. If Diaz was coming on in the ninth, you were toast. 

In 2023, Diaz got hurt, the Mets dealt their nearest pieces, and Buck Showalter lost his job. And the quest to start over began.

In 2024, the New York Mets were the talk of baseball. They make it to an NLCS on the strength of Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea, Lindor, Nimmo and the surprise postseason reappearance of Kodai Senga. Diaz was...alright, but only notched 20 saves and was more of a solid reliever than a solid closer.

And now the Mets are trying desperately to act like they haven't relapsed again, even with Juan Soto doing Juan Soto things in the heart of the lineup. Injuries have left this team a wild card competitor, with a lot of great pitchers just not delivering this year. The stretch from June 13th on has been atrocious, as the Mets have gone from a 1st place team to barely hanging on above the Reds. And most frustratingly...Edwin Diaz isn't a league-best closer anymore.

Look, there's a chance Diaz gets 30 saves this year, and his next one will be #250 as a career, but the guy who chased K-Rod with the Mariners isn't this same guy. He's very much a solid, consistent eighth inning guy who can also do some 9th inning work, and he's made it into the situation where the team has no choice but to trust him as a closer. They did get Ryan Helsley as a closing option, but like Diaz, Helsley is better as a setup guy. At the very least, Diaz is unhittable this year, and has a 1.69 ERA with 70 Ks. But the guy who was always a ninth inning lock in 2022 isn't here. Further, there's an NL East closer that has usurped him in that category. Jhoan Duran not only has a cooler entrance, but is getting much more opportunity to save. It's just not Diaz's time anymore.

And I'm not trying to belittle Diaz for no reason. He's still an excellent relief piece, and has helped the Mets stay in the race. But I don't know if he's THE closer for this team anymore. Which I think the Mets do have to come to terms with.

I think the Mets have a chance to still factor into this season, and you're seeing a slight uptick since the Little League Classic. Nolan McLean is absolutely ready for the bigs, and he's joined Peterson and Senga as sure things in the rotation. Alonso just passed Straw and is still rolling. Soto's got another 30-homer year and still has time for more. But they need to get past their uncomfortably bad stretch and reestablish themselves as an intimidating NL force. This may be difficult with the Brewers, Phillies and Dodgers commanding the narrative, but there's still time now.

Coming Tomorrow- Hard-hitting DH/corner for a team desperately clinging to their probability to compete.

Canadian Efficiency

Here is an absolutely true fact about the Blue Jays right now: every player who is in a crucial position for the team as a starting player has a WAR of over 1.2. That includes every member of the starting lineup, every member of the team's rotation, the backup catcher, and two backup outfielders. The median WAR among batters is 0.6. The median WAR among those starting pieces is 2.0. Of the statistical Top 12 players on the Blue Jays, the 12th highest WAR belongs to Nathan Lukes, who has a 1.5. This would be the fourth-highest on the White Sox, the eighth highest on the Braves and the third highest on the Rockies.

The Blue Jays are good. Not only that, they've worked it out where basically everyone on the team is good. There are no weak links in the lineup, and you'd have to go to the bullpen to find an area of this team that doesn't look impressive.

That the Jays have built an impressive, consistently productive lineup out of a lot of small pieces is all the more impressive. Ernie Clement was a cheapo free agent signing that became one of the most lethal swiss army pieces of this team. Myles Straw was practically a giveaway from Cleveland who got back to his old tricks and became a fan favorite. Barger and Schneider were organizational also-rans who turned call-ups into big years. Barger has 18 homers already this year, while Schneider's been hot as hell this month. Nathan Lukes was a career minor leaguer in the Rays organization, got a shot as a backup in Toronto and has become a really impressive bench guy. It's very crazy that so many pieces of this team [Straw, Gimenez, Lukes, Clement, now Shane Bieber] were developed by Cleveland only to soar here. 

The Guardians couldn't take down the Yankees by themselves, but several Guardians are now high above the Yanks playing for the Jays. Incredible.

The most impressive turnaround this Jays team was capable of has to be Eric Lauer. Lauer was no slouch as a depth starter with the Brewers, but he hit some injuries and eventually had to recoup some playing time in Korea. This year he comes back with a vengeance and, despite missing playing time early, he's called upon as a starter in Toronto after Bowden Francis gets hurt. Lauer...has been one of the Blue Jays' best pitchers since then. In 14 starts, Lauer has a 3.25 ERA, a 6-2 record and 70 Ks. He's been consistently strong, and a surprising rock in a strong-but-slightly-unstable rotation. Like...it's while that Eric Lauer is more trustworthy than Max Scherzer in this unit. 

The Jays lucked into some easy series' this week, and have their heroes surging. I have no doubt they'll make the playoffs, and they have the momentum to potentially win the AL East. It's really only a matter of if the Sox or Yanks can catch them, and at this juncture that is looking exceedingly difficult.

Coming Tonight: One of the best relievers of his generation. Maybe not one of the best closers though...

Coups in the Making?

 

This week, the two Western divisions came very close to flipping entirely. The Mariners were chasing the Astros in the AL, while the Padres briefly eclipsed the Dodgers in the NL. One of these has since been resolved, as the Padres were batted back down during their series with the Dodgers, but the Astros spent the weekend getting absolutely flambeed by the Orioles while the Mariners really only needed to just keep on target to not waste it. As I'm writing this, we're still waiting to see how the little league classic goes, and if it brings the Mariners within a half-game.

All I can say is that for a season that is succeeding now that the theme has become 'rejecting inevitability', it's a development I'd prefer. This season has seen big downswings for teams that were considered league superpowers heading into the season, like the Yankees, Astros, Mets, Braves and now the Dodgers. With one or two exceptions, the majority of the teams that competed heavily last year have struggled to deliver comparable follow-ups, citing atrophy, injuries or whatever the Yankees' excuse is this week.  You're seeing exciting stories like the rise of the Blue Jays, the Brewers' incredible run, and wild card cases from the Reds, Red Sox, and possibly even the Marlins. That thrills me more than 'well it's the Dodgers again'.

So this Dodgers-Padres series was a bit of a bummer. At this point the Dodgers do have leverage, and were able to outdo even heroes like Manny Machado and Dylan Cease this weekend. The Padres' main issue right now is their rotation's back half. Beyond Pivetta, Cortes and Cease, there's a lot of unsteady ground. Yu Darvish is worth some Ks but he's a bit shakier than his heyday for the Padres.  Cease, for the record, barely got through 3 innings against the Dodgers, as that lineup had him for breakfast. Despite 171 Ks, Cease is 5-11 with a 4.61 ERA. And the current strategy without King is to throw some pen guys out there and let Randy Vazquez do long relief rather than simply starting him. This is what happens when you give your two top starting prospects away for a catcher.

Fermin, by the way, has been an excellent upgrade behind the plate, and Ramon Laureano has had some nice games himself, already hitting .321 with 3 homers and 11 RBIs. Ryan O'Hearn, meanwhile, has run out of the magic that made him a star in Baltimore. He's only cracked 1 homer and 4 RBIs in 12 games. Not a great look at all. Furthermore, Mason Miller only has 1 start. I did not expect someone like Nestor Cortes or Freddy Fermin to be more pivotal to this team's success than Miller or O'Hearn. You really can never tell.

The Mariners have had slightly better luck with their additions. As has been well-documented, Eugenio Suarez is taking a bit more time than expected to get to Arizona levels of production, hitting .143 with 2 homers and 7 RBIs since joining the team. But Josh Naylor has been miles better, hitting .275 with 4 homers, 10 RBIs and 11 steals in 19 games. He has an .826 OPS already, higher than any Mariner who doesn't famously have a big ass. Naylor, as predicted, was exactly what this team needed, and has fit right into the lineup dynamic. Meanwhile, Raleigh's still rolling, with 46 homers and 100 RBIs, Randy and Julio are both headed towards 25 homer years [and 25 steal years] with aspirations of 30-30 years, and Cole Young seems to be a fixture in this lineup despite all that. 

And even with all the dysfunction they had earlier in the year, the Mariners' lineup is rolling again. Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert have put together great seasons, and George Kirby has been quickly catching up thanks to some excellent late-summer starts. This team also has a lot of really strong bullpen threats, and Caleb Ferguson's just the latest one. I genuinely think the Mariners are better put-together than the Astros, and have more to succeed with. They've struggled slightly against the Mets, but they still have the leverage.

Of these two, I think it's more likely to see a Mariners coup than a Padres one, but nothing's off the table. 

Coming Tomorrow- Another team that pulled an insane coup in the AL East, and became a league superpower. This guy was out of the league last year and now he's their secret weapon.

Crashing the Party

 

I think it's a good time to remind you all that no one was talking about the Brewers in May. They sort of bobbed along for a bit, were a decent second or third, didn't have it together. You'd occasionally hear about how Freddy Peralta was on, or how Caleb Durbin did something cool, but for a while they were potentially sellers. Rhys Hoskins was looking like a 1B addition for Philly for a bit. 

And...now they're one of the best teams in baseball, and began August with a fourteen game winning streak. Amazing what can happen as a season progresses.

I did not expect THIS lineup to feel so immaculate. Joey Ortiz as the nine man has been really good in the past week, and his defense is miles ahead of last year. Andrew Vaughn has filled right in at 1st where Rhys Hoskins left it, and is hitting .343 with 9 homers and 35 RBIs in 28 games, the kind of damage he was never able to do in Chicago. Christian Yelich is on fire, headed for another 30 homer year. Blake Perkins has been excellent filling in for Chourio in center, hitting .264 with 3 homers and 9 RBIs in 22 games. And Isaac Collins is the kind of contact-hitting piece the Brewers just needed more of. He's hitting .288 with 41 RBIs and an .833 OPS. I think he's a more deserving ROY candidate than Drake Baldwin, because I see Collins having a longer career. 

And the rotation just seems to have solutions for everything. Peralta-Woodruff-Quintana-Priester-Miz does not sound like an unbeatable rotation, but that's what we're looking at. Quinn Priester, even in his occasional struggles, is 11-2 with 100 Ks. The Pirates and Red Sox tried to get great seasons out of him but couldn't find a place for him, and it's wild that Milwaukee is that place. Quintana is 10-4 with a 3.44 ERA, another really strong season from the veteran. Woodruff is 4-0 in 7 starts, with a 2.06 ERA and 49 Ks. That's vintage Brandon Woodruff. And Freddy Peralta might get Cy Young votes this year, thanks to a 14-5 record, a 2.90 ERA and 148 Ks. Peralta has pinned this rotation down this year when many worried he wouldn't be able to. The guy has come a long way.

Oh yeah and in addition to all that, Jacob Misiorowski 4-1 with 50 Ks in his first 8 starts. He may be a little more easy to hit now that teams are doing their research, but he still throws hard as hell.

The Brewers were inches away from losing their first game of the month last night, and then they found the flaws in the Reds, which are their defense and their bullpen. The fact that that game still went to extras, and was as evenly matched as it was, regardless of how it ended, is worthy of something. Even if they bring out the closer on one day rest and he gives up an RBI double cause Sal Frelick knocks it into the bullpen, they still have the leverage. Even when they lose, they still tire you the hell out. And even when you've driven yourself to another level to get ahead of them, they bring out a third string infielder and he hits a 3-run homer off you in the 11th. And that's precisely why they're so scary heading into the home stretch of this season. They're trying to do something no Brewers team has done since before the pandemic, and this team has the insane energy to pass that threshold. But do they have the luck?

Coming Tonight: The Mariners got him to annihilate opposing pitching, and that's exactly what he's done.

Like July Never Happened

 

Hey, uh...remember around the trade deadline there was this narrative that the Tigers were cratering, losing 12 of 13 in one stretch and letting the Guardians approach from behind? Remember when it was looking like one of the main storylines of the season, that being the Tigers as the strongest team in the AL, was going to be all for nothing due to some rough series?

Apparently nobody else does because since they've been surging in August everyone seems to have conveniently forgotten there was any rough patch at all. Which is what happens when a team sees the problem and makes conscious efforts to turn it around. New York could learn from this.

One of the big sparks the Tigers have needed has been Kerry Carpenter. The Tigers seem to play better when Carpenter is in the lineup. Already since he's been back both the team and Carpenter have been surging. In 95 games, Carpenter has 21 homers, 46 RBIs and an .824 OPS. That OPS is just a notch higher than Riley Greene's. Carpenter is a production machine, as he always has been, and now he gets to be a run producer for a much better Tigers team. Same with Spencer Torkelson, who has 26 homers and 66 RBIs. Wenceel Perez is the only starter who has less than 10 homers, which is a pretty cool thing to say about the Tigers.

Now, I did give the Tigers some shit for skewing older at the deadline, and getting a lot of aging pitchers to bulk up the staff. They've all been working, honestly. Though Charlie Morton has fallen off a little, he looks about as good as he did in Baltimore, with 21 Ks in 3 games. Chris Paddack has been a strong stand-in for Reece Olson, mostly eating innings but still sporting a 3.45 ERA. Kyle Finnegan has been lights-out in the ninth and has yet to allow an earned run. The only addition who's been shaky is honestly Rafael Montero, but there's still time.

The Tigers have won 6 of their last 8 games, even if a lot of them have been close. Yesterday they blanked the Twins 7-0, which they can do now that the Twins have given up. To begin the following week they have to stay afloat against the Astros, who still have some momentum despite nearly being no-hit by Brandon Young last night. If they prove that July was an anomaly, which they're currently doing a good job of doing, they can conserve momentum and roll into a strong October run. They've already succeeded in the playoffs as a wild card, so who knows how well they'll do as a favorite.

Coming Tomorrow- For my money, this guy should be the Rookie of the Year. 

Lights Out

 

A week or so ago I was at a Phils game at the Bank. Went pretty well, team looked good, outdid the Baltimore Orioles, Walker and Kepler looked better than they have all year. It was a week or so after they'd gotten Jhoan Duran, and so everyone was anxious to see if the Phils would roll into a save situation, so they'd get to see the new closer and his killer entrance. It was 4-0 most of the game, and mid-8 Duran did start throwing, as did Max Lazar. The mentality was that if the Phils nicked another run away, there'd be no reason to put on Duran, and if they didn't it'd still be a save situation, or close to one. 

Well, Brandon Marsh hits a solo homer in the bottom of the 8th. It's now 5-0. And so Duran sits down. I tell you, by the time Max Lazar got up to the mound, the fans started booing. How DARE they not give us the reliever we came to see? How dare they not need their closer tonight? As much as Rob Manfred would have you believe this is the case, you're not paying to see a show. It's a game. And the Phils were thinking practically rather than spectacularly. 

But that still really intrigued me. The fans in Philly can be so entitled sometimes. We paid all this money to see Jhoan Duran save a game, and what d'you mean it's not the right situation? Relax, it'll be on twitter tomorrow night, that'll be enough.

All of this to say that Jhoan Duran in Philly has been as dominant as advertised. We needed a truly trustworthy ninth inning man, cause we weren't getting anywhere with Jordan Romano, and Duran has been that guy. 4 appearances, 4 saves. And honestly, the lights going red when he gets a save, or when he runs out, just really fits. The mystique and ferocity of the 'Durantula' walk-out is perfect for a pressure cooker stadium that is the Bank, and if we get to start home games in the postseason, it's gonna scare people shitless. Edwin Diaz and his trumpets can be ferocious and all, but he's not known for his closing abilities anymore. He's better as just a solid enough reliever who can also get saves. Duran can close games and do it with an exclamation point. 

The Phils themselves, though not as unstoppable as they were earlier this season, look good. Harper's heating up, which is always a good thing. Schwarber has 42 homers and wants to chase Howard. Sanchez and Walker are stepping up in moments of struggling from Wheeler and Suarez. And now Nola's in the mix, seemingly rehabilitated and ready to rock again. Harrison Bader and David Robertson have both been everything we needed them to be. And we swept the damn Rangers right at the point where they could have soared to a wild card spot. It's looking good, but the whole rest of the month consists of really tough divisional matchups and a tight Mariners series. We need to keep moving and halt any spoilers, because what happened last year could happen again, and people are waiting for that downfall.

For now, all we can do is hope they keep the game close and wait for the bell to ring. And then we'll be alright.

[UPDATE: Man, I really hope he's okay.]

Coming Tonight: The weird part about this guy, who hits lots of homers for the Tigers these days, is that he was hitting lots of homers for the Tigers before they were good.