Top 10 Trade Deadline Deals of 2026

 Well...a lot happened this time around. 

Following the brass today was HARROWING. So much was happening, and so quickly. Almost evenly displaced as well, like there'd be a move, I'd have time to make a custom of them, and the next two moves would be up. And I think it was all a well rounded bunch. Last year the emphasis was on relief pitching, this year it was a little of everything. Some teams needed starting help, some teams needed outfield bats, some teams needed catchers [and some needed catchers and somehow forgot to deal for any]. A lot went down, even to the point where, after the BIG MOVE happened a few days ago, I was worried nothing would top it. And...I mean, we'll get to it, but there certainly was competition. 

I have a lot of other posts planned for deadline week, I have a 'best of the rest' one planned, I have a 'the ones I didn't understand' post in a bit. But we've got to do the top 10. This kept sliding by the whole day and got to the point where it is now. One spot stayed the same. And...yeah.

Anyway, we start with one I really didn't think was gonna happen this deadline:

#10: Heliot Ramos to the Yankees, 2 prospects to the Giants

So, the Yankees went into the deadline looking for bullpen work and a catching upgrade, and got neither. So Heliot Ramos, a very savvy lineup addition, makes it to the end of this list without going forward. Let me just stress that I love this move, Ramos is young, controllable, and powerful. He's been hurt for a bit but he's hitting .264 with 9 homers and 34 RBIs in 74 games. He's a ferocious hitter with a huge upside and a lot to accomplish, and...he gets to hit in Yankee stadium. The tricky part is it crowds the outfield a bit. Right now it's Ramos/Jones/Dominguez/Grisham, and eventually Bellinger and Judge are gonna come back and it's gonna get even more crowded. It's bad enough that Paul Goldschmidt's gonna have even less at-bats now [more on that in another post], now we're crowding the active roster. It's gonna be worth it if Ramos continues his very strong work, which is very likely.

#9: Taylor Ward to the Mariners, 3 prospects to the Orioles

The Mariners have the kind of team that should work more in concept, because you have Randy Arozarena, Brendan Donovan, Julio Rodriguez, Dominic Canzone and Josh Naylor there and the contact game is ailing. So in comes Taylor Ward to make it even more ridiculous. Ward's having another excellent season, but it's a very contact heavy one without much need for power. He only has 7 homers and 30 RBIs, and that is appalling from a guy who's had 100 RBIs and 36 homers JUST A SEASON AGO. Wouldn't a trip to Seattle be a fun time to start power-hitting? Ward's an excellent outfield bat with some versatility and perks, and he could be the lineup piece that the Mariners need to save their season. I just think he really fits with what they're doing in Seattle. I'm also really happy the Mariners didn't deal Kirby or Emerson. Yes, that prevents against the possibility of stretch Kade, but their rotation is excellent and didn't need to be broken up beyond Castillo.

#8: Kevin Gausman to the Cubs, 2 prospects to the Blue Jays

The Jays had a really weird deadline, because they both sold and bought at the same time. And arguably they should have committed more to one than both. Ultimately, they chose to part with one of their longest-tenured stars, the mighty Kevin Gausman, where he will become something the Cubs have desperately needed this year: an actual ace. Justin Steele's been hurt, Cade Horton's out for a while, Shota Imanaga's struggled. They need stability, and Gausman is a veteran arm with postseason experience who can back up the already strong offense. This is a downslope of a year compared to his peak, as he is 5-10 with a 4.38 ERA, but he's still a fundamentally strong pitcher with a lot of great starts left in him. I think he will greatly aid the Cubs down the stretch. Perhaps not as much as someone a little further down, but enough to land on this list.

#7: Luis Arraez and Caleb Killian to the Phillies, 2 prospects to the Giants

This is arguably a little low, but it's down here because the Phillies really needed a better option at fourth or fifth starter and didn't get one. They also needed an outfield bat...and didn't get one. So Luis Arraez, as good as he is, is an odd consolation for so many pieces of this lineup that needed help, and if we miss out on a World Series, it could be Dombrowski's fault for not going further. However...the Phillies now have Luis Arraez. And that's a very good thing. One of the best contact hitters in the game, and a terrific defensive 2nd baseman, joins this lineup, and moving Stott, Bohm and Harper around supremely improves the defense in general. Arraez is electric wherever he is, and the Phils could see that fully going forward. We also got Caleb Killian, who's a terrific bullpen arm with a great upside. Very much a win for Philly, even if the team isn't fully improved by this deadline.

#6: Foster Griffin to the Guardians, 4 prospects to the Nationals.

The Guardians had a sneakily good deadline, bringing on a lot of pieces that lift this team up to where they can really chase Chicago. Foster Griffin was their best move, because their fifth man in the rotation was Slade Cecconi, and as good as he can be, they could do better. Their rotation is now Messick, Williams, Bibee, Griffin and Cantillo, and that's among the best in the bigs. Griffin isn't an ace, but he's an excellent mid-rotation arm with 12 wins and a 3.05 ERA under his belt, and that's from playing for a very okay Nationals team. He'll thrive in a playoff environment in Cleveland, and build on this belated rookie season to become an even bigger force going forward. 

#5: Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor to the Cubs, Francisco Rojas to the Mets

This one ways a little more than Gausman to me for the Cubs pitching additions, because Holmes, until the injury, was having the best season of his career, and one of the only good seasons on the Mets. Through 9 games he had a 2.39 ERA, and was proving that the Mets moving him to the rotation was a good idea after all. The idea is that once Holmes is active [as well as Braxton Garrett], he'll be able to aid the Cubs rotation, and I see him as a front-facing integral arm that could lead them through some postseason games. Tyrone Taylor's also an excellent outfield depth option for this team, and could be very helpful on a postseason roster. The Cubs weren't fully ready before, and now they are.

#4: Freddy Peralta to the Rays, 3 prospects to the Mets

This deal will work out if the thesis, that the Mets were just a really poor fit for Peralta, is true. Peralta succeeded in Milwaukee, a small market team built on contact and pitching. That's also the Rays. Low budget, small core, close wins, and an impressive rotation. Peralta levels it up, as good as Rasmussen and Martinez have been. Shane McClanahan's gonna miss some time, and Peralta will be relied upon to deliver Brewers numbers as an ace for a Rays team with a shot at a #1 seed. Peralta's 4.99 ERA will need to come down if the Rays want to take advantage of this deadline, and I have a feeling it will. Meanwhile, Jett Williams is still chilling in the Brewers' farm system, and Brandon Sproat is getting all kinds of starts, so...lolMets.

#3: Liam Hicks to the Rays, Brayden Taylor and 2 prospects to the Marlins.

I like this one a little better for the Rays, simply because it fixes a lot of problems. It ups their catching game, ensuring Nick Fortes doesn't have to start behind the plate as much. It also gives them a proven contact bat with some kick against righthanded pitchers, and a very well-trusted lineup presence. I think he's just one of those guys who can pop into any lineup and just dive right in with excellent production, so I think he'll love Tampa. And also, he drains the Rays' farm system a little more so other teams can have a chance. Just a really cool, sneaky move by the Rays that positions them further towards a late run.

#2: Adley Rutschman and Jake Rogers to the Red Sox, Carlos Narvaez and 4 prospects to the Orioles.

I would say since Varitek left, the Red Sox have had a revolving door at catcher. So many guys that could have been the one, or should have. Victor Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Sandy Leon, Christian Vasquez, Connor Wong, Carlos Narvaez, and the list goes on and on. So to finally have an answer at catcher, and for it to be Adley Rutschman a terrific hitting catcher whose team already foreshadowed this move by signing Samuel Basallo to a multi-year deal...that is huge. Rutschman's having another great season, but it did feel like this O's team was moving past the need for him. With this Boston team he'll fit right in, and be another huge lineup piece of a team that's quickly becoming a serious wild card threat. Very much a case of giving a team exactly the guy they need going forward.

But of course...nothing was gonna top the #1 piece on the board. Even if you disagree with its existence, this deal needed to be #1.

#1: Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers, River Ryan, Zyhir Hope and 1 other prospect to the Tigers

So. The best team in baseball got the best pitcher in baseball. In 16 starts, Skubal had a 2.79 ERA, 7 wins, 116 Ks and a 2.9 WAR. He's still in his peak, is effortlessly brilliant, and was never gonna stay in Detroit. The Dodgers taking him happened because they had a well-stocked farm system where even their lower tier prospects were more than other teams were offering. It's disappointing that, like a lot of recent Dodger developments, nobody else could stop it from happening. But now Sku gets to help the Dodgers go for a threepeat, and it's gonna make electric October baseball even if they don't get all the way. It's also gonna add fuel to the fire that Skubal will, in all likelihood, choose to stay in LA going forward. Definitely shifts the balance of the game, which is what the trade deadline is for. 

So yeah. A lot happened. A lot of teams won. And now the Dodgers are even scarier. Sets up the last third perfectly.

Sometime tomorrow there'll be a 'best of the rest' post most likely, with a lot of other deals that didn't make this list. 

Bake-Off

 

Once again, you have to hand it to the Rays. They took talent that was lying dormant in another market, nabbed him for a bargain, made him a star and will now likely profit. Bryan Baker, you may have struggled to find stability with the O's, but now you're an all-star closer for a competitor. Somehow.

Baker I always liked with the Orioles because he was one of those constants that the fans loved. Made most of his appearances, did his job efficiently, balanced out the rough moments. I saw him pitch for the O's last year before he was traded and he seemed to have his stuff. The Rays must have known. They dealt for him, worked on some things, and gave him the ninth. So far he's got 25 saves with a 1.69 ERA, and has been the bright spot of a Rays bullpen that is doing its best without the homegrown depth it usually has. Ian Seymour, Cole Sulser and Garrett Cleavinger are usually viable options but they're not having great seasons. Casey Legumina still isn't the answer. They picked up Chris Roycroft and he hasn't been much better. Even late career Craig Kimbrel is flailing given the opportunity. I guess they can't have a young collective of ace relievers again for another couple years. 

It goes to show that the Tampa Bay Rays, most years but especially this one, specialize in having guys that can do one thing extremely well and most other things not well at all. They corner the market on niche specialists with no range. Where else can you find Nick Fortes, a catcher that doesn't hit and doesn't need to, Chandler Simpson, an ace-base stealer who hits triples but can't hit home runs, Ryan Vilade, who's built like an armed bodyguard but can't play left field, Richie Palacios, who...we're still not sure what he does well but the Rays sure need him, and Taylor Walls, the best infield defender in baseball with literally no offensive ability. The idea is these people don't need to be good at everything, they need to be good at the thing that they're best at, and pooling their resources together, they make a great team.

Now, granted, this only works because of the presence of a choice few multifaceted pieces, such as Junior Caminero, Drew Rasmussen, Shane McClanahan, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda, but the Rays-ball mentality of putting in the guy that works the best vs. the most well known and expensive version just works. It's been nearly a decade of this, you can never count these teams out, they're never bottom feeders and they're always one strong month away from competing. Right now they're competitive. Does this have to do with the fact that the Yankees are in a downswing? I'm supposed to say no. But in all honesty, the Rays are very good this year, have had a very nice month, and despite losing three straight to the Red Sox, still have a nice hold on the AL East. It's an imperfect hold, and the Yanks are shooting back up again, but they're not exactly gonna lay down and die either. 

Coming Tonight: A minor league lifer, doesn't throw too hard, relies on trickery and pitch selection. Happens to come into a rotation spot with one of the best organizations in the bigs. Is now suddenly a decent name. 

Okay, Fine, the Rays are Good.

 

No disrespect here. The Rays are in first, and they're earning it. No 'it's cause the Yankees suck', no 'where are the stars?', none of that. Junior Caminero's gone on a home run hitting tear, Drew Rasmussen's one of the best pitchers in baseball, Yandy Diaz is a total hitting machine, Jonathan Aranda's finally getting hot, and somehow they've been able to make a closer out of former Orioles bullpen stalwart Bryan 'Shake 'n Bake' Baker. I can't even be mad, they're just really good right now. Won 7 straight, they get to play the Astros this weekend and then we get to see how long the Yankees want to drag out the losing stretch. 

Drew Rasmussen has been a key rotation figure for the Rays ever since coming over here. I gave them a lot of shit for trading Willy Adames just so Franco could get playing time, but they were able to, like so many other times, offload soon-to-be-wanting-money talent for a younger, more lucrative piece. So they got Rasmussen at the exact correct time, he had a stellar 2022, missed parts of two seasons with injuries, had a stellar 2023 and is looking at a second consecutive all-star appearance. Dude's just a sneaky-good, hard-throwing workhorse whose ERA hasn't dipped above 3 since coming over. That's honestly the crazy part, he's never finished a season with an ERA higher than 2.85 as a Ray. As a Brewer he was all over the place, but he really nailed things down in Tampa, and became a very consistent guy. I'm not sure if he's the ace, Shane McClanahan is still technically top dog, but Rasmussen is pitching better. 

I do think it's slightly worrying that we haven't seen Ryan Pepiot yet this season, but it speaks to the Rays' low-budget dominance that they're keeping the rest of the AL East at bay using guys like Nick Martinez and Griffin Jax. They technically don't have a fifth starter right now, what with Steven Matz hurt, but it's the Rays so they're using 5 relievers in a trench coat, and suddenly that's working. Again, the bullpen's been better, but Kevin Kelly and Bryan Baker have been pretty good. Baker has 21 saves. They wouldn't let him close with the O's but the Rays had an opening. I dunno why they had an opening at closer, I feel like they had a guy for that all set up last year..

I think the biggest twists of this season for the Rays are A.) that the contact game is being led by Yandy Diaz, who's hitting .329 and already has 100 hits, and B.) that this team that's known for its contact game and has two proven starters who have not hit any home runs and are not expected to...also has a pretty decent power core, just from Aranda and Caminero. Caminero has 24 homers right now. He committed to the Home Run Derby before anyone was even thinking about the Home Run Derby. Somebody just said 'hello' to him, and he went 'I WANNA DO THE DERBY AGAIN'. And what the hell do you say to that?? No??? 'I wanna potentially ruin my swing for the rest of the season' 'Okay, go ahead, champ.' There's a reason there isn't one of these for pitchers. 

Anyway. The Rays are really good right now. Is it sustainable? Who knows. Yankees are technically the better team, and they do this every June. A month from now, if the Yankees still suck, we'll see. With the exception of 2023, the Yankees remember to stop sucking at some point. We'll see if the Rays can outrun them there, with their four guys that don't hit home runs and their three guys that aren't here to hit at all..

Coming Tomorrow- The Astros, like absolute fools, traded him, right as an opening emerged in his new team's starting lineup. To say he's made the most of it would be an understatement. 

Ray-versal of Fortune

 

Guys, I think that rainout the Rays had against the Yankees last month changed the course of their season. Before then they'd been on top of the world, since then they're 7-15. Mind you, they had 15 losses by that point in May anyway, and they've doubled that in less than a month. Could it be that resting a team on the laurels of an ace who hasn't pitched in 3 years, a speedy hitter who refuses to hit home runs, a production machine that can't play first, the single worst everyday hitter in baseball this decade, and the Rays' worst bullpen since pre-Cash, hasn't turned out to be as strong of a strategy as they thought?

I continue to not understand why the Rays continue to trot Taylor Walls out there. He's one of the best shortstops in the game defensively, that bit I understand, but that's literally it. He's once again absolutely refusing to hit and he's still getting the starts. If this Rays team was as good as it claims to be, there'd be someone who can actually hit playing shortstop and Walls would just be a sturdy ute. But they couldn't have that. I say that, but we've seen Cedric Mullins hit in Baltimore and it's just not happening here, he's a .198 hitter with barely any real upsides this year. The gap between the production core, Caminero, Aranda and Diaz, and everything else is ASTOUNDING. This is why you don't trade Brandon Lowe, because you go from a very varied, consistent lineup to three great power hitters and a lot of dead air. Throwing in Ryan Vilade and Ben Williamson helps on occasion but I don't know if they've really found a working model for success yet. That's a wild thing to say about a 2nd place team still in reach of a division title, but it seems true now.

And it makes the hitters that are working even more valuable. When the Franco thing happened, the immediate inclination was to rush Junior Caminero, and that's how we got like 2 seasons where Caminero would show up midyear, not do much and not make camp next spring. Then 2025 happens, he's for real, this is the guy...we're on firmer ground. Right now Caminero's hitting .272 with 15 homers and 33 RBIs. Not quite as huge as 2025 so far, but on a decent pace, and possibly on the way to another ASG nod. And he's only 22. I really think this guy is the future for Tampa, and I really think they ought to figure out a way to keep him on long term. It worked for Yandy Diaz, he's still an excellent power bat all this time later. They need to lock him down, and it sucks that a lockout might not even make that a further possibility. 

This team has enough production to keep ahead of the pack, and enough solid pitching seasons [Rasmussen, Martinez and until recently McClanahan] to equalize competitors. It just hasn't been as forceful since mid-May, and as such the Yankees have retaken the division [and considering what they've done to the White Sox this week, may hold onto it]. You can never truly count the Rays out, but unless they can fix the lineup dissonance this may be all they can do this year.

Coming Tomorrow- Undoubtedly the single most dominant pitcher of the 2020s. Like a switch flipped.

High Sugar Intake

 

The limitations of modern arm strength point towards a frustrating factor about modern pitching. There are some people pitching right now who, if they didn't overwork themselves and miss time in between amazing seasons, would be Hall of Famers. Back then you only had the occasional case, a Sam McDowell here, a J.R. Richard there, but even then it was an outside circumstance that led to the decline. Even Madison Bumgarner, the ATVing ruined his arm more than overthrowing did. But now, throwing the best season of your life means not being that good again for another 2 or 3 years, and considering that people are already coming up at 25 anyway, it's reducing people's prime.

If this was 1979, Shane McClanahan would have been up at 22, have a Cy Young by 25 and would be in the midst of a Dodgers contract by now. But no, the Rays didn't have room for him til the 2020 playoffs, he flirted with greatness but went down mid-2023, missed two seasons and is now 29 and working on a 'comeback' year. Throwing hard isn't what it used to be, man.

I think the Rays are still very thankful that McClanahan's still a mighty centerpiece of their rotation, and that he's back to 2022 form this year, working on a 6-2 record with a 2.45 ERA through 11 starts. He's still a big game guy who can take a strong workload and hold the line against great teams. I think he's still being a little careful with speeds and control but he's still very much THE guy for this team, and he, Rasmussen and Martinez have been very good at keeping runs down this year. I just feel like if the Rays had more of a sample size from him they'd have been better off. They got a ton of strong, healthy seasons out of Blake Snell, and McClanahan's very much seen in the same kind of light as Snell was, but with less to show for himself. It definitely speaks to how good McClanahan's been when he's been active, as his highest season ERA to this point is still a 3.43 from his rookie year. 

The Rays in general, by the way, are still a strong AL competitor despite the bottom beginning to drop out a bit in the past week. Today the Tigers smacked around Nick Martinez and friends behind 8 innings of Troy Melton, marking their 7th loss since the rainout that could have ended the 'Yanks can't win a series against a .500 team' argument once and for all. The team is still hitting, and still surging behind the usual suspects of Caminero, Diaz and Aranda, but the depth isn't completely there [barring Ryan Vilade maybe] and the bullpen's still in shambles. This is still a good team, and they're still capable of a lot of strong run production, but the uncontested upswing they had in May might have come to an end. 

...of course they don't play a .500+ team again til mid-month in LA, but apparently it's only okay to bring that up if you spend money on the team.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who plays for one of the teams the Rays have to play next. And he got his start out of the way today, so they won't have to face him. 

Violent Rays

 

Nearly a decade into the Kevin Cash era of Rays baseball, we have flipped the script entirely, and now have a Rays team where the rotation is so good that it makes the team hesitant to hand it to the bullpen. Who'd have thought??

The current rotation plan, as opposed to 2018's plan of 'Blake Snell, Chris Archer, Tyler Glasnow and give it to a reliever', is a much more traditional mindset. McClanahan and Rasmussen up top, Martinez and Matz supplanting, then Jesse Scholtens with an opener. That's remarkably unconvoluted. And so far it's REALLY working. Nick Martinez is having his best season yet, he's 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA in 9 starts. He's not outthrowing like McClanahan and Rasmussen are [despite the fact that it IS working], but he's been dominant, and the Rays' defense has been making it easy work. Having a healthy McClanahan back also helps, he's got a 2.82 ERA, he's 5-2 and he's got 47 Ks. I still think he's trying not to exacerbate things again after missing 2 years at his peak, but it's a fine time for him to be throwing this well. And even Matz has been impressive, going 4-1 with a 3.70 ERA in 8 starts. It's a compact, solid unit of people that can just stay on as Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz and Chandler Simpson make their jobs really easy.

But...the bullpen, people. Bryan Baker does have 13 saves right now, but not all of them have been pretty. That ERA reads 2.66, but it was above 4 a week or so ago. The more you look at this bullpen, the more doesn't sit right. Hunter Bigge ALONE. The man gave up 8 runs IN EXTRAS. TO THE MARLINS. Just got on there hoping for an easy inning and completely exploded. Garrett Cleavinger, Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour aren't much better. Remember, the Rays gave up Taj Bradley for Griffin Jax, and Bradley's having a comeback year in Minneapolis while Jax...tries. He gives up too many walks, gets way too many batters on base and presses his luck. Even the 'better' relievers on this team don't hold a candle to the heights of this administration's pens. This is why you re-sign Pete Fairbanks, or hold onto Andrew Kittredge, or anything. But no, Ian Seymour really was the answer here. Or Mason Englert.

Again, it's a good thing the Rays are really good right now, and hitting .261 as a team with sensational contact hitting and a lot of sharp ideas fueling the fire, but seeing a Rays team with a bad bullpen just feels wrong. Like they haven't thought about what that'll do to them. And it's not like the Dodgers where they can use other starters instead of their bullpen, because they don't have Dodgers money. Not even close. 

The Rays face the Yankees tonight, and this weekend. Gerrit Cole is getting the ball tonight. Then they start next week in Baltimore. If they can get through that with their dignity intact, then we can talk.

Coming Tonight: A rookie who's my age. To any longtime readers, 10 years ago that was kinda cool. I'm now at an age where if I was a rookie in the MLB, I'd get some concerned looks. 

One More Dragon to Slay

 

2025 was a very nice year for me, a year where neither the Astros, the Cardinals or the Rays made the playoffs. Those three organizations infuriate me to no end for different reasons, and the Rays' insistence on not paying their players yet still building great teams make them particularly infuriating. What's the point of constructing a great team yet not having the incentive to cultivate it? George Harrison had a line about the record industry once, 'they don't care much for the music, they want the blood from a clone', and that really sums up the Rays mentality. To them it's more cost-efficient to trade a star for someone who could do the star's work and become big enough in three years to repeat the cycle. 

So this is another year of the Rays' usual approach, and so far, despite the usual lack of offseason effort [to a degree], the Rays are in 2nd place and surging after a strong week. Why should anything make sense?

As discussed, Yandy Diaz is the last 2020 Ray standing on this team. If you want to count McClanahan, I suppose you can, but he was active for the series and not the season so it's fuzzy. Hilariously there are more people on this team who were in the Dodgers' system in 2020 [Lux, Feduccia, Grove, Uceta, Pepiot, DeLuca], than there were people in the Rays system that year. THAT is dedication. You don't wind up with that many ex-Dodgers from that era accidentally, especially in comparison to your own organizational products. That's why it's been refreshing seeing actual Rays products like Caminero, Aranda and Simpson inherit the team in addition to all the traded guys. 

But Diaz is a rare case in that A.) the Rays have kept him around, and B.) he's actually performed consistently well in Tampa. I did not expect former Cleveland also-ran infielder Yandy Diaz to become the beloved power-hitting elder statesman corner infielder he is with the Rays, but it's still great to see. Diaz is 34, and potentially looking at his last season in Tampa [unless they decide to re-sign him [canned laughter]], and still a very crucial part of this lineup. So far he's hitting .333 with 21 RBIs, 5 homers and a .926 OPS. He's on track to even surpass some career highs from last year. Is a 30+ homer year out of the question, even if he just had his first 25 homer year last year? Not at all. Nothing makes sense in Tampa.

But, as it tends to happen, the things not making sense line up in a way that's advantageous for this team. Chandler Simpson's hitting .300 with 11 stolen bases, which is enough to distract you from his defense. Nick Martinez has a 1.70 ERA through his first 6 starts, which is strong enough to distract you from the fact that the 6 man from the Reds is now the top guy for the Rays. Shane McClanahan has a 3.10 ERA and 30 Ks, which is enough to distract you from his two lost seasons. Jonathan Aranda leads the league in RBIs right now with 27, which is enough to distract you from his .230 average. The lineup, while not always pretty, is producing runs, even if the bullpen is still a mess. And the Rays finish the week with a scorching display of wins...against teams like the Twins and Giants.

The Rays could still make something happen this year, but I see a week like this one and I still see the deep flaws and long term issues that prevent them from building this into a long term dynasty. Not that the owners care much, as usual.

Coming Tomorrow- Very weird to me that you could describe this guy as one of the veteran staples of the Nationals now. It doesn't feel like 5 years have gone by, that's for sure.

Cosmic Rays

 

Y'know...a week ago the Yankees could have scored runs off of Nick Martinez.

I dunno, man. You think you have a team figured out and then they can't do anything against Aaron Civale, then can't mount a comeback against a clearly mediocre Rays team. The Rays' bullpen has been vile this year, and still David Bednar goes 'watch this' and ruins everything.

What can't be disputed, even if I'd try to whine about how undeserving the Rays are of a .500 record even if they outperformed the Yankees at home, is the talent emanating from Chandler Simpson. THAT is a leadoff hitter. Get on base, hits triples, steals, gets home. Everything you want. The man is a contact machine, and he could ride a .300+ average for a while at this rate. 'Pesky' is a good word for someone like Simpson, and it's clearer to me how tough of an out he's gonna be in every subsequent Yankees series. At least last year the speedy tough out guy on the Rays could get traded to New York midseason and wind up as a fun utility guy here. Simpson's gonna be a Ray for at least another two years, maybe three if the Rays can't find a good enough trade partner in time. 

I say that, yet they still haven't managed to get rid of Yandy Diaz, and they're better for it. I never would have thought THIS GUY would be a valuable veteran power bat. I saw him as a fill-in infield guy playing for Cleveland in 2017 and I didn't really think too much of him, and then he goes to Tampa and becomes a white-hot power hitting corner. Diaz is currently hitting .362 with 21 hits, 14 RBIs and 3 homers. I know that the Rays expected someone like Aranda or Caminero to be off to a hotter power start, but they'll take more Yandy Diaz production, I know that. And admittedly Jonathan Aranda has 3 homers and 14 RBIs himself, so he's just heating up.

I think the perks of this Rays team get overlooked because it's so easy to see the flaws. Once again, they have no choice but to start Taylor Walls at shortstop, meaning they're wasting like 3 at-bats a game. The Cedric Mullins experiment is not working out yet, and he may in fact just be past his prime. The bullpen is still a major problem area, as even in today's win Mason Englert let an Aaron Judge homer by and nearly wrecked the game. The days of having a murderer's row of sneaky, unhittable specialists all in a line are gone; now these guys are just trying to keep a job. Only Hunter Bigge and Jesse Scholtens have ERAs below 2.50, and Scholtens arguably should be starting. At the very least Rasmussen, Matz and Martinez have been solid so far, but considering that Martinez was already a 'break in case of emergency' starter, and Ryan Pepiot's missing time, them having to reach into depth options IN APRIL isn't a great sign. This is why you don't trade Taj Bradley.

A sweep of the Yankees is a good source of dopamine, but it's still early, and this is still a weaker, flawed Rays team. Unless this really is a moment of pure turnaround, the Rays need to come to terms with their limitations or face another really rough July.

Coming Tomorrow- After three years of 'is he for real', 7 homers in 3 and a half weeks seem to provide a definitive answer to that.

2026 in Getting Out of Tampa

 
The cycle continues. The Rays get something together, then realize they have to play their players, trade people away, and then once again the Rays get something together. Absolutely exhausting.

Right now the Rays have only 1 guy left from the 2020 A.L. Championship season, namely Yandy Diaz. Last season had 3, and two of them were actively either dealt or cut. Now it's down to one. Occasionally you hear talks of Junior Caminero getting a longterm extension, possibly Jonathan Aranda, but nothing permanent comes down. I'll give the Rays credit for signing more free agents than usual, as Steven Matz, Nick Martinez, Cedric Mullins and Jake Fraley wound up here in signings. But that's not distracting from the fact that any homegrown talent is there to attract trade promise and net them even more young, controllable players. This has been the MO since the Kevin Cash years, pure small ball without overextending. The few times they actually sign players, they gamble incorrectly, like with Wander Franco.

And then when people finally get out of Tampa, and get paid...then it's easier for them to have breakout seasons, or even just strong years in general. You're seeing that all around. Taj Bradley got dealt last year for Griffin Jax, and so far he's been one of the best players on a rough Twins roster, going 2-0 with 22 Ks in his first 3 starts. Every bit uncomfortable and unpolished Bradley felt in Tampa is gone, and he's more confident than ever in Minneapolis. Then you have Brandon Lowe, who had another great season last year, then got traded to the Pirates and has been extremely helpful for them this year, with 4 RBIs and 3 home runs in 11 games, in addition to some traditionally strong infield play. Lowe looked to be one of the Rays' last two veterans, and now he's playing for a team that actually seems to be going somewhere.

Sifting through each of the other rosters, it is very easy to find players the Rays gave up on to meet a budget quota. And while we're here...

Angels: Josh Lowe, a late offseason trade loss thanks to a strong desire for Gavin Lux. Lowe was a fairly regular producer for the Rays, and with the Angels he's been slower to start but still getting enough reps.

Astros: Isaac Paredes, one of the Rays' more baffling midseason trades, is the starting third baseman in Houston, and already has 4 doubles and 5 RBIs in a prime position in this lineup. 

A's: Jeffrey Springs, in case none of you are aware, nearly no-hit my team today. That happening now...just seems way too on the nose. The Rays got rid of him a year ago after they grew tired of waiting for him to come back to full power, and the A's actually gave him some money. Only a matter of time before his arm gives out again though. 

Brewers: Jake Bauers was last with the Rays back before any of these people whose departures have pissed me off were even with the team, really. He got sent to Cleveland in the deal that traded Yandy Diaz to Tampa. Since then his career has died and come back, and now he's a handy bench bat with Milwaukee. 

Cardinals: Matthew Liberatore was a longtime Rays organizational staple before he was dealt for Jose Martinez [and also another guy named Arozarena]. He finally made it to the bigs, and is the closest thing the team has to an ace right now. 

Dodgers: Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell, most notably.

Giants: One of the most egregious ones was Willy Adames, traded during a peak season solely to make room for Wander Franco. Then, when he was suspended and they were left with Taylor Walls and a clearl-not-ready-yet Junior Caminero, they had no one to blame but themselves.

Mariners: Lots, honestly. Randy Arozarena, Luke Raley, Cooper Criswell. Arozarena, like Paredes, was one of those 'you're just doing this to avoid paying him' deals, and while Arozarena has found more success in Seattle, he really should have become a Rays hero. 

Marlins: Xavier Edwards was another infield prospect that just couldn't find room, then got dealt and found playing time and his mojo. Pete Fairbanks was a truly unfair post-2025 cut, and had been doing well enough in a closing role for the Marlins before going on paternity leave. 

Nationals: Zack Littell had become a really nice starting piece for the Rays, and for his troubles he was dealt to the Reds. Now the Nats have him, and he's been serviceable. 

Orioles: Andrew Kittredge ended last year with the Cubs, yet still had a desire to return to the Orioles, because he seemed to enjoy it so much in the first half. That's not even mentioning folks like Shane Baz and Zach Eflin, two pieces of a near-powerful rotation that the Rays had no incentive to keep. 

Padres: You may recall that Jake Cronenworth was a Rays farmhand before his inclusion in the Hunter Renfroe deal. Dodged that bullet, I guess, or else, like Renfroe, he might be a journeyman by now.

Pirates: Jake Mangum and Mason Montgomery were also sent to Tampa in the Lowe deal. Both have found niche roles in Pittsburgh that aren't terribly different from their niche roles in Tampa.

Reds: Both Nathaniel Lowe and Emilio Pagan had crucial roles in competitive Rays teams. Neither have had tremendous starts to this season, but Pagan at least has 4 saves right now. 

Twins: Joe Ryan, like Bradley, was a Rays farmhand. Ryan was dealt for Nelson Cruz, found his way up in Minnesota and became a star.

Yankees: The Rays really could have kept Jose Caballero if they wanted to, but they traded the then-season saves leader to the Yankees, and since then Cabby's been a wise, trusty infield fill-in. 

I'm not sure if any lockout or bargaining agreement or salary cap or ANYTHING can change the way the Rays run their team. It's a very cheap way of doing business, and with no checks or balances against it from the MLB level, they're gonna keep doing it. I don't think they'll ever win a World Series this way, and I don't think the Rays Wall of Fame will be especially long if every plaque ends with 'after a strong four seasons he was dealt to a competitor, where he was paid more and won a World Series'. 

Coming Tomorrow- One of many pieces of proof in Anaheim that good things come to those who wait.

The Last Few Burning Questions of Spring

 

The last few exhibition games are being played out tonight, to get the last few trials in before the real ones. The final cuts are currently being made, call-ups are being announced, and we're finally ready to get the season moving before there's no season to play. It's the most exciting moment of a season, because it's the last moment where there's still potential energy, before the sobering reality hits. And then the colors mute, the cold returns, and the season runs ahead. 

I've still got a couple more customs from Spring Training to dole out, and so from there, let's examine some of the last few lingering concerns and loose threads that might be at play during the 2026 season.

-Does Ranger Suarez mean the Red Sox' rotation is for real? On paper, the combination of Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Brayan Bello and Connelly Early looks good, but with the exception of Early, all of these guys have shown downsides in recent history. Gray's coming off a down year, Suarez struggled to come back fully after the hand injury, Bello's ERA stayed plainly around 4.50 for a while, and Crochet was in injury hell for a while. How likely will it be that everything clicks at once? Luckily, Johan Oviedo, Payton Tolle and Kutter Crawford are around in case something goes wrong.

-Will Kevin McGonigle succeed where other Tigers infield prospects haven't? Trey Sweeney and Jace Jung, two infield prospects that looked like hits, both failed to make the team out of camp. Colt Keith still has second for now, and Zach McKinstry is mostly an interloper. The future is paved for McGonigle and Clark, but will they take advantage of the moment or end up like Jung, Sweeney, Ryan Kreidler and more?

-Is the world ready for a decidedly non-competitive Cardinals team? Despite the complete lack of star power, the entirely decimated pitching staff, and the reliance on guys like Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera to provide some form of normalcy, many pundits are still predicting the Cardinals will finish with more wins than the Pirates. Even with substantial evidence that Oli Marmol is well past his expiry date. It's not like the Patriots where it can just suddenly happen overnight. J.J. Wetherholt is likely very good at baseball, but is he gonna be enough to get anyone to care about this team? 

-Similarly, will THIS team be the Angels team that brings non-Ohtani relevance back to Anaheim? A lot of the pieces that worked separately in 2025 are still intact. Trout will be healthy and ready to go, Neto's onto another stage of his peak, Adell can finally power-hit in the majors, now Grayson Rodriguez has a place to pitch, Logan O'Hoppe looks to have a strong year, Soler's healthy. If all goes according to plan, the Angels could surprise some people. But in a division with the Mariners, A's and Astros, will they be able to get anything done?

-Has the injury bug already doomed the Braves before the year can even get going? Yesterday Spencer Strider was announced as an injured piece. The team already knew they'd be without Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, Ha-Seong Kim and Joey Wentz for a while. This team also has Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Austin Riley, Mike Yastrzemski and Martin Perez on it. And Ronald Acuna is back, but who knows if he'll be at full capacity this year. Even if there's more reinforcements this year with that possibility in mind, will they have enough to keep them in the mix all year, or will they be running on fumes by August once again?

Will the White Sox finally lap the Twins in a battle for least inept team in the AL Central? Believe me, the White Sox have had a nice head start and had some truly terrible seasons, but the Pohlads completely have up and the Twins now consist of Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan and a bag of chips. Even with strong second-year infielder Luke Keaschall gearing up for a more dominant full season, the Twins don't have much at all this year. Pablo Lopez is hurt, none of the young core has developed, Royce Lewis still spends 2 months on the IL every year. Do the Twins have enough accumulated to outdo the White Sox's smarty-built younger squad?

-Are the Rockies looking at another year firmly on the bottom? I don't really see any evidence that suggests otherwise. Some of these rookies look decent, Kyle Karros and Chase Dollander and Zac Veen, plus the possibility of Charlie Condon and Roc Riggio sometime soon. But man, there really is nothing to this team, even still. And they have to play a ton of games against the Dodgers and Padres. Will there be anything at all that will be seen as an improvement by year's end?

-How off-kilter is the Nationals rotation going to be? In years' past it's been pretty straightforward, the young core of MacKenzie Gore, Mitch Parker, Jake Irvin and D.J. Herz, plus assistance from Trevor Williams. Now it's taken a turn. Josiah Gray was set to make his comeback after 2 years of injuries, but apparently that's not happening for a while. So what's left? Is Cade Cavalli ace material? Does Miles Mikolas have anything left? Did the other 29 teams pass on Zack Littell for any specific reason? Is Foster Griffin a viable MLB option? And is there any place for Cole Irvin, and eventually Herz and Parker, on this shifting team?

-What are the Rays getting at now? At last they get a working core, with Caminero, Aranda and Lowe all propelling them forward, and then Lowe, Mangum, Fairbanks, Josh Lowe and Baz all end up elsewhere. Is it possible that the Rays were closer to competing before than they are now? Even with Chandler Simpson, Carson Williams and Ben Williamson looking to make strides this year, the holes are apparent. If the Rays actually wanted to build a team without needing to save money, they definitely had the opportunity to. Will this season, and an impending lockout, give the Rays any incentive whatsoever to attempt to build a perennial competitor?

Just food for thought, I suppose. Tomorrow night we kick this whole thing off.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Rays

 

I don't know how evident it is from how I write about them, but I really, really dislike the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Rays are the most blatant case in favor of instituting a salary floor, because they have no incentive to pay their players [save for domestic abusers], and will sooner trade a piece that is working in exchange for movable pieces than actually put money into the team. Lots of other teams do this, but even the A's, Pirates and Twins will give out contracts. The Rays only have one remaining member from the 2020 team, Yandy Diaz. They had three going into the offseason, but they cut one and traded the other for scraps. Then they traded another guy who was just getting the hang of things to a divisional competitor. When Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero and Ryan Pepiot ask for more money they'll be traded too. It's genuinely insufferable. And add to that the unwillingness to play anywhere other than the still-decaying Trop, the fact that four of their pitchers boycotted pride month a couple years back [none of them are still on the team but I'll never forget], and their inexplicable desire to compete this past year despite having little to no shot. This team is everything I dislike about modern baseball, and I shudder to think that the upcoming bargaining agreement will settle favoring con-jobs like the Rays' ownership even more. 

I mention this because I only have three Rays players for Uncustomed Heroes this year. That's all they deserved. What the hell was I gonna do, make one of some of the 29-year-old rookies they had shuffling around? One of them just got traded anyway! Do a frigging Taylor Walls custom, when Walls can't hit to save his damned life? Validate Christopher Morel, a rare Rays cut I actually agree with? What the hell can you even say about this Rays team? The only positional upgrades they made came from the White Sox! Two of their all-stars were hurt in the second half. The big Shane McClanahan comeback was rushed, leading to yet another injury in camp. This team came in 4th after a surprise smash of a May/June run, because the practical-ball thing only works if you actually put work into making the team great around it, as Toronto can tell you.

Anyhow. Pete Fairbanks had a terrific season as the primary ninth inning option for the Rays. He wasn't flashy, and had 59 Ks in 61 innings, but posted a 2.83 ERA and notched 27 saves. Fairbanks has been a mainstay of the Rays' bullpen for years, and he rewarded them in 2025 with his fullest and most dominant closing season yet. So the Rays rewarded him by cutting him. I'm not sure who's closing games in Tampa next year. Honestly I don't think they care.

2026 Prediction: Y'know, for some reason a lot of teams seem to want to sign Fairbanks. Almost as if it was a bad idea to cut him. Anyhow, a contender picks him up and he gets them to the playoffs. 30 saves, easy.

Adrian Houser was traded by the Chicago White Sox, who revitalized his career, to the Rays, who had already calmed down and had sold a few pieces at the deadline. No one is quite sure why they did this, but they went and did it anyway. His 10 games in Tampa weren't as good as his White Sox run, with a 4.29 ERA, 45 Ks and a 1.349 WHIP. Average, much like how he was a year or so prior.

2026 Prediction: The Giants is actually a really good place for Houser, because he can come in as a depth option, maybe take the 5 spot, and then work his way up if the middle guys get hurt. I say he nabs 10+ wins and starts 25 games.

And then you have the Rays' umpteenth ultra-mega top prospect, shortstop Carson Williams. Pretty convenient to have another top prospect shortstop after the other one robbed you blind last time. This one seems to be alright though. He's 22, and unlike Franco he's not an immediate MLB hit, as in 32 games he hit .172 with 5 homers and 12 RBIs. So he's got some power aspects down, but he's still figuring out major league pitching and was mostly ensuring Taylor Walls didn't have to hit.

2026 Prediction: Here's your Rookie of the Year, folks. Catch him while he's still playing in Tampa.

Coming Tomorrow- How weird it is that I'll have far less pithy, aggravated things to say about the gosh-darned Boston Red Sox???

Lowe Expectations

 

Hm, apparently not paying your players and only having around 29-year-old breakouts and various rookies isn't how you compete after all.

There was a moment during this season where the Rays were convincing me that somehow, in some way, this was going to work. For a month between May 21st and June 28th, the Rays were one of the best teams in baseball, and embedded themselves in what was initially considered a two-horse race in the AL East. With star turns from Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, Drew Rasmussen, Zach Littell and Brandon Lowe, the Rays finally began picking things back up and surprising people again. Cash-ball just kept on working.

And then Aranda and Lowe got hurt, the team took a downturn and the true spoilers in the AL East, the Blue Jays, made it so the Rays didn't even need to be there. And thus they sold at the deadline [despite picking up Adrian Houser for some reason], calmed down significantly and took the L. And despite one last spike in late August, the Rays will once again be missing the playoffs this year, and are back under .500 despite how tricky they were in the heart of the season. And so next year, the Rays will reset once again, with new and different fan-favorites taking the place of many of the old ones.

Right now, there's not a ton left to do but play the music, yet there's still some decent performances to be found. Junior Caminero has 44 homers and 108 RBIs, and has cemented himself as a major power figure in the AL. Yandy Diaz and Pete Fairbanks have been putting in excellent free agency cases after the Rays will probably refuse to pick up their options. Josh Lowe's doing the same mid-lineup stuff he usually does, with 11 homers and 40 RBIs in 100 games. Chandler Simpson has 40 steals but not much else. Judging by his last start, Joe Boyle seems to be, at last, getting the hang of this MLB pitching thing. At this rate, the Rays will have 3 good starters that'll have made all 32 starts, and that's something to take with them to 2025, unless they decide to trade any of them before having to pay them.

If I sound cynical about the Rays' strategy, it's because it's decidedly anti-player and cheap in the name of stingy ownership. The Rays want good teams but they don't care if they last. So even if there's promising steps towards the future, who's to say they won't break that up if it saves them money. Maybe I'm wrong, but the Rays, under the current Manfred MLB regime, have no incentive to truly try. It remains to be seen if this will change.

Coming Tomorrow- In the last two months of every season, this guy starts going on a crazy power tear at the plate, and despite the complete inefficiency of his play during the first four months of this season, 2025 is no exception.

Fast and Loose

 

The good news is that for the first time since arguably Carl Crawford, the Tampa Bay Rays have a genuine base running talent in their midst. The bad news is stealing bases seems to be the only thing he's good at; despite 38 steals, Chandler Simpson is an outfield liability and has a 6.85 OPS despite a .297 average. He gets singles, but he's not a great contact performer. But man does he get on base. 

This is the grey area the Rays lie in once again, in yet another period of mediocrity cut from the same cloth as their pre-2020 teams. They're certainly one of the most intriguing teams in the bigs, even if they aren't really one of the best. Having Junior Caminero up and hitting certainly helps; Caminero is on track for a 40+ homer season and an 100+ RBI season after being an All-Star starter at 21. It's very helpful that the Rays can see the future of their team in a young player who isn't about to throw it all away for a felony. Similarly promising is Carson Williams, a 22-year-old shortstop prospect who's already hitting .316 after 5 games in the majors, meaning he's already an offensive upgrade over Taylor Walls. But then again so is my grandmother. Williams, Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and arguably Chandler Simpson are pieces this team can build on, to the point where if they ever figure out this stadium nonsense, they'll have a competitive team to fill seats there.

But everything else for right now is more of the sideshow stuff that Cash teams are known for. Witness Bob and Ian, the incredible Seymour twins, two guys named Seymour who are both rookies for the Rays and ARE NOT RELATED, nor are they related to Carson Seymour, a third rookie for the Giants! Marvel at Ha-Seong Kim, who spent four glorious seasons in San Diego then completely forgot how to play baseball the second he got to Tampa! Watch in amazement as Jake Mangum, a 30-year-old rookie, seeks to have a breakout season on a team that doesn't even want to pay its 28-year-olds! 

Right now some of the most crucial Rays are scrub relievers having nice months. Garrett Cleavinger, Eric Orze...what else can you say about them other than 'well they relieve well'. At least Pete Fairbanks is a proven success, but compared to prior Fairbanks seasons this isn't much. The Rays used to be known for their DIY bullpens, now they're just like everybody else. 

The odd part is there hasn't really been a watershed moment of 'this doesn't work anymore' for these Rays teams. They're still thinking it's a viable tactic. They're probably gonna let Lowe, Fairbanks and Diaz, the sole remnants of the 2020 team, go in the offseason, probably not pick up Kim's option, and possibly even cut Taylor Walls. All to save room for a youth movement they probably won't pay because of a superstar they paid millions to who'll never play again. It's a little sad in a sense, or it is the moment you stop laughing.

Coming Tomorrow- He was having a breakout season four years in the making and then in came the Yankees to ruin it.

How to Stick Around in Tampa Bay

 

I wanna draw attention to something that doesn't happen often. Right now, on the Rays, there are three players who have been here since at least 2019. They are, namely, Pete Fairbanks, Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe. All of them have been here since pre-pandemic, and in Lowe's case since 2018, and they are still with the team, having not been traded yet. This...doesn't happen often.

There's not a lot of players, other than Kevin Kiermaier or someone like that, who get to the end of a contract having played it all for the Rays. It used to be basically everybody, as guys like Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton and James Shields would easily play 5 or more seasons in Tampa. But then the ownership tightened the belt and went into their Cash-era 'trade them the second they get good' strategy. And as such, these players don't persist. Last year Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena were dealt just as they were blossoming as Rays, and Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, even Zach Littell have been dealt right as they've become trusted arms.

Yet those three are still here, despite the idea that one or more would be dealt this deadline. As such, all three have been delivering great seasons for the Rays. Diaz's power bat is taking off, he's got 20 homers and 67 RBIs. Lowe, despite missing time with an injury, still has 23 homers and 57 RBIs. Fairbanks has been quietly putting together a great season at RP1, with 20 saves and a 2.64 ERA. All three are valuable, well-used, respected and still very good at the game. You're seeing the next generation of the Rays begin to take over, the Pepiot regime or the Aranda/Caminero regime, and these guys still definitely factor into things, and that's very important if the Rays want to compete again.

BUT...all three of these guys are potentially going to become free agents very soon. All three have a team option for 2026, and we know how the Rays are about paying their players. So the end of the road may still come very soon, regardless of the work they've put in. 

The Rays don't have much else to accomplish this year other than being a decent spoiler. They're under .500 and behind the scrum, and they're the one team in the AL East that didn't spark fire recently. All that remains is to finish strong and set up a better team for next year, and with Aranda back and the strong likelihood of another set of great prospects on the way, that's very doable.

Coming Tomorrow- Abrams made the majors, Gore made the majors, Wood made the majors. Now it's his turn. 

Driving the Last Spike

 

You can't really blame the Rays for what happened to them. ..okay, maybe you can a little.

From mid-May til the end of June, the Rays were one of the best teams in baseball, were very close to lapping the Yankees, and had enough of a solidified team of young stars that they're close to outrunning their own gimmick. Then, as the Rays calmed down a bit in July, both the Blue Jays and Red Sox went streaking, the Jays took 1st, the Sox leaped forward, and now the Rays are in fourth again.

Ultimately, you can see why. You're seeing more mediocre starts from the guys this team is really relying on, people like Ryan Pepiot and Zack Littell and Shane Baz. And that really is the issue with dealing Zach Eflin or Jeffrey Springs, or losing Shane McClanahan. You need an ace. Pepiot is nice but he's not an ace. Drew Rasmussen is efficient, but he's not an ace. With Snell, McClanahan, even Archer and Price, I could see where this rotation was starting from. Here it's just a bunch of decent pitchers in search of an anchor. And they haven't really found it yet. Littell is still having a decent season, but he leads the league in homers allowed with 24, and his ERA is inching towards 4. And the bullpen just has far less crafty, unhittable guys left. It's just Fairbanks and Cleavinger left, and a lot of people just filling spots. Edwin Uceta is nowhere near his 2024 self. I guess Eric Orze has some promise but we're far from the arsenal of guys like Kittredge, Castillo, Alvarado, Stanek and the others. 

Plus, as he's prone to, Brandon Lowe's gotten injured and sent the lineup into a tailspin. Jose Caballero is taking his innings at 2nd, which is still a good thing, but aside from his league-leading 32 steals he's not much of a plate threat. The cabal of late-20s fringe guys, like Kameron Misner and Jake Mangum, have calmed down, perhaps knowing that Toronto has a far better cabal of late-20s fringe guys. What doesn't completely dissuade me from thinking the Rays can compete is that the Aranda-Caminero duo has been rock solid, and continues to be. Caminero already has 25 homers, and his Home Run Derby performance proves how underrated his power game is. Yandy Diaz is also having a terrific power season, with 15 homers and 57 RBIs. And as trustworthy as Cabby is on the base paths, Chandler Simpson is catching up to him in 2/3rds of the games, and is a .300 hitter. The Rays may have the latest in a long line of base-stealing legends in Simpson. 

I can't really say how this Rays team will end up because they've ebbed and flowed as much as the Jays and Sox have. I honestly think they have more of a 'team' than the Jays, but they also have more inexperience. The Kevin Cash carousel of opportunity is still unrivaled, and will be churning out above.-500 teams til the wheels truly fall off, but unless there's a real injury issue I see this Rays team, at the very least, improving on last year's and setting the rest of the decade into motion.

Coming Tomorrow- A former Angels prospect who was mostly a minor league fixture in the past year. Then the strangest thing happened. 

Facing the Facts

 

Alright. With this much having been elapsed, and with this much still working, I can admit that the Rays are, in fact, a good team. They're good enough that they're honestly commanding the AL East as the Yankees have slowed down. I'm just mad that they're doing it in the cheapest way possible. 

It is undeniable that the Rays have built a new young core, and are moving far ahead with it. Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero are the powering force behind this team, both are ready and both are really fantastic. Caminero has 20 homers and 51 RBIs, and might be headed to the All-Star Game. Aranda's hitting .329 with 8 homers and 41 RBIs. And for them to be able to do this while Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz and Josh Lowe are all A.) still on this team and B.) still capable of producing consistently is just a testament to why the Rays shouldn't rush to trade people instead of paying them. A core has appeared, and even if there is gonna be an uncomfortable conversation in regards to what happens after this season, it's getting them deep into the race for the division.

[It occurs to me now, by the way, how much the Rays resembles a college team, because of how inevitable the departures feel, and how it all seems to go in like 4 year cycles more often than anything.]

And somehow, after years of scrounging and forcing openers, the Rays have a solid rotation of five guys who've stayed healthy and made all their starts. Ryan Pepiot has blossomed into a really strong pitcher, he's got a 3.04 ERA and 91 Ks. Shane Baz is 8-3 with 86 Ks and a 4.37 ERA. Drew Rasmussen is 7-5 with a 2.45 ERA. Regardless of the fact that Shane McClanahan still isn't here, and that Taj Bradley can occasionally get chased, this is a very solid pack of starters. And their failsafe guy, Joe Boyle seems to have figured his shit out as well. 

That doesn't mean the Rays don't have flaws, as...they still have too many either no-name 29-year-old rookies or name 29-year-olds hitting .220, but what works is enough to power them to 2nd, and enough to make them a serious rival for 1st. This weekend the Yankees are playing the A's, who are beatable but infuriatingly sneaky, and the Rays are playing the Orioles, who have been better but still have no pitching. I'd prefer the Yankees to stay on top, but it's wild that we're in a moment where the Rays could top them.

Coming Tonight: It's looking like the people that were supposed to do their jobs in Miami aren't really doing so, so now he's gotta step up.

The State of Super-Ute Guys

 

Jose Caballero, from the moment he burst onto the scene in 2023 with the Mariners, seemed to be the latest in a long line of powerful utility infielders. He was plugged between second and short, hit for contact and stole bases, and didn't need to be an everyday starter. He gave that Mariners team flexibility, which, between Crawford, Moore and then-Wong, they appreciated. Then they traded him for Luke Raley for some reason, and ever since the Rays have been benefitting from his flexibility, since the Rays are inherently a very flexible team. So far this year, Caballero has a league-leading 25 steals, and is much more integral of an offense piece than someone like Taylor Walls, who continues to infuriate me given his inability to hit.

Caballero's success, despite not being used as an everyday starter and using his own versatility as a selling point, indicates the return of the professional super-ute. There was previously maybe one or two in a spell, like Brock Holt being the everyman for the Red Sox or Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez wearing various hats for the Dodgers, but now there seems to be an avid interest in many teams pinning down this spot. Last year may have been the tipping point, with Willi Castro and David Fry becoming super-utility standouts and becoming the most crucial angle on the lineup. 

So this year, we're seeing both the limits and the scope of this strategy. And it really just boils down to this: some people are born to be a superutilityman. Some people are just second basemen that haven't earned the position yet. It's like the difference between a closer and an RP1 that works the ninth, you have to actually earn the role in order to keep it. So we're seeing some previously promising super-utility guys, like Jared Triolo and Gabriel Arias, struggling as the teams change. Triolo is barely hitting this year, and is being outdone by contemporaries like Nick Gonzales and Adam Frazier. Oswaldo Peraza is similar, you get the sense that on another team he wouldn't need to be a superutility infielder, and as it stands he's just kind of a piece for the Yanks.

But conversely you hear about some of the things that Willi Castro's doing and it all makes sense. Castro has played 6 different positions this year [not counting his inning on the mound], he's got 6 homers and 42 hits, and occasionally he'll have a 2-homer day, like he did against the A's. Unlike most other super-ute guys [though Cabby's fast approaching], he's insanely likable, very fun to watch and the fans have rallied around him.

Caballero, however, might have Castro beat for a surprise ASG spot. I'm not sure how many other Rays are especially close to making the team this year, maybe Rasmussen or Lowe make it, but Cabby is the most crucial member of the Rays so far. This is a team based around contact, moneyball and subtlety, and the best players have been young, speedy, efficient guys who aren't too showy and don't cost too much. Caballero is the patron saint of that. And I'm glad he's getting his due, even if it's for the Rays, who'll likely never pay him what he's worth.

Coming Tonight- After last season I worried he was cooked. Definitely not the case.  

A Fish Called Aranda

 

# of Rays with sub-.200 averages who still rank among the team's top statistical performers: Two. And you people wonder why I hate these teams,

The Rays continue to get by using the most cheap and antithetical means possible and only get rewarded for it. Once again they're riding a band of mostly scrubs to a place in the standings higher than a team that was supposed to be competitive, and are reaping the benefits of continuing to have one of the best farm systems in the league. They're playing in a minor league stadium with the hopes of eventually return to their MLB stadium, voted 29th in the league on a scale from 'new' to 'should be condemned'. 

And so whenever people start getting excited about a Rays rookie, I just tell them to temper their expectations. Either this player is going to get traded within a year, stay at the expense of their own health or have some calamity befall them. I think about the people who actually stuck around for a while in Tampa, and it's people like Carl Crawford [arrested for assault], Aubrey Huff [generally abhorrent human being] and Wander Franco [you know]. Or it's guys like Longoria, Kiermaier and Lowe, who stay for a while but can't stay healthy. Even as extensions get handed out left and right, and there exists the possibility of several current veterans, including Aaron Judge, Clayton Kershaw, Mike Trout and Jose Altuve, retiring after long, HOF-caliber careers spent playing for only one team, I think a player becoming a star and playing a complete, 15-year career with the Rays is a true fantasy. Just ask Blake Snell, Isaac Paredes and Willy Adames. 

And so you look at this Jonathan Aranda guy, and there's a ton to like about him. Defensive upgrade at first from Yandy Diaz, who's now the full time DH, can play everyday, hit .300 and lead the team in slugging. He's very multifaceted, in a way the fans were expecting Junior Caminero to be. Aranda, however, is 27, and this being his breakout season this late is...somewhat concerning. There's a lot of that in the breakout guys in this team. Misner's 27, Mangum's 29. At the very least actual rookie breakout Chandler Simpson, a base-stealing phenom in the tradition of B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford, is 24. But even for a rebuilding team, the median age is still 29 or 30, and you want to hand the team off to people who'll have 5 or so years of peak play to rest on. Some of these guys will be in their mid-30s by then, and they may not be long term solutions. Then again, Yandy Diaz's best years came after 29, so you never know.

I think what ultimately sours me on the Rays is that they just don't make any logical sense. They do all the things you shouldn't do and they still win. It goes against everything I expect from baseball. And yet it's efficient for them I guess. I dunno, if I had my way I'd buckle the Rays and Rockies in, find better markets and less cheap owners and march ahead.

Coming Tomorrow- He just passed 1000 RBIs, and he may pass 350 home runs in the next month. And he's only 32.