2026: Nothing is Immovable

 

The first game of the day I was able to watch was Mets-Pirates. I think stagnating the day as they did was a little odd, as they could have just done a bunch at 1 and a bunch at 7. Doing one game at 1, and it being Mets-Pirates...I mean, I get that it's a cool matchup, but don't you want to do some other ones as well? A little variety on the first real day of the season? I dunno, they seem to want to do it this way, and...fine. At least they put a game on NBC so people could actually watch it. 

But I did end up watching Mets-Pirates, because it felt like however way it went would be cool. I was of the opinion that Skenes would shut down the Mets' offense and the bullpen would blow it, and Peralta would be strong but not be ironclad against the improved Pirates offense. I was half right. Peralta gave up 2 homers to Brandon Lowe, and a solo shot to Ryan O'Hearn. The new guys did exactly what they were brought there to do, and that makes me feel better overall about the Pirates.

But...Paul Skenes could not get out of inning one. Against the Mets. Not that the Mets are bad, it's just the sort of older, high-risk/high-reward team he could do well against. But the combination of Skenes giving up easy ones and Oneil Cruz not being in position to cast them cost the Pirates 5 runs, and the bullpen cost the Pirates even more. 

The telling stat is this one- without that first inning, the Pirates win the game. If either Skenes doesn't struggle or Yohan Ramirez starts the game, that's 5 runs erased. And even if the Pirates bullpen, mostly Isaac Mattson, gives up even more runs, including the first career homer for Carson Benge, they still outscore the Mets. Freddy Peralta, strong as he was [comparatively], gave up 4 runs, Tobias Myers gave up 1 and Luis Garcia gave up 2 more. If there isn't a lead they need to be padding, they lose a game 7-6 to the Pirates on Opening Day. 

The moral, thereby, other than to always keep fighting, is that even the idea of putting Paul Skenes and Freddy Peralta in a position to succeed doesn't guarantee an outcome. Skenes can still struggle, Peralta can still struggle, and the offenses can still come alive. Nothing is guaranteed, not even Paul Skenes. 

It'll be interesting to see how both teams learn from today. For the Pirates, the game they could rely upon wasn't even a gimme, and they couldn't get it done, despite the continued offensive support. For the Mets, they outdueled a titan and found success with Bichette and Polanco at new positions...but they still allowed 7 runs, even with their best starter on the mound. If the wins are gonna be this close, they need to solve the problem before it ruins them, like last year. 

Regardless, this game was an excellent pacesetter for the season. The rest of the day was full of epic rookie debuts, huge HR moments and incredible pitching [especially in Milwaukee]. And it gives an idea of just how exciting this season's about to be. I'm here for it, for sure. 

2026: Mind the Elephant Dung

 

It's not as if the MLB hasn't done a 'let's pretend everything's normal' season before. You saw it in 1995. You saw it in 2020 and 2021, after the pandemic. You saw it after free agency began in the 70s. There is always going to be an effort, whenever there is something that, in a just world, would lead to work stoppage or a deliberation, for the people who lie and die by the revenue to go 'okay, from the top, just like the last time'. 

More than even 2023, the league seems headed for not just a players' strike, but a complete lockout. The wealth disparity between owners has become ridiculous, with teams like the Dodgers able to routinely buy championships, and teams like the Guardians [who, keep in mind, also have CEOs with plenty of money] not at all able to compete. The players are gonna go towards the best offers to sustain their lifestyles, and the guys with the bigger pockets are gonna have those, so they're gonna keep winning. Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and Tyler Soderstrom will be making Shohei Ohtani money for their solid but not overly spectacular gameplay. And so the owners' immediate response is, 'okay, let's pay everyone less and do a salary cap'. Not to actually put more money into the team and try as much as the top guys are. No, bring them down and justify their lack of spending. 

It's 100% true that every MLB player, and MiLB player, deserves the right to earn enough to make a living. But if there's a pay disparity, the workers should not be blamed or penalized, the owners and CEOs should. Without players, there is no product, as the owners will likely find out in a year's time. If you want to bring in revenue, you need to pay your star players, or any players, what they are worth. We know what happens when an owner doesn't do this, and it leads to a mass talent exodus that makes John Fisher only the SECOND-worst owner in A's history. Now, it's also an issue when the lack of talent on the field, and the lack of ticket sales, doesn't provide an incentive for owners to spend because they own 3 or 4 other things with more immediate revenue. 

Regardless, something needs to be done. I'm of the opinion that a salary floor should be implemented above all else, to incentivize the Bob Nuttings and Pohlads of this world to actually build teams. Some cap might need to be in there as well None of the players' union people want a salary cap, even with Tony Clark conveniently leaving his position ahead of the union a year or so before deliberations begin [it's still bad what he did, I just think the timing of it coming out is really suspicious]. You have two stubborn camps, one with money and one without, and like in 2023, and 1994, you can kind of guess who's gonna cave first. Whether or not the solution will actually help anyone, that's another thing entirely.

But with all this a year away, and with the tensions between the owners and players still relatively high [remember, Bryce Harper nearly beat the shit out of Rob Manfred last year], there's still a season of baseball that needs to be played. Which means everyone needs to act like there isn't gonna be a work stoppage next year and deliver an exciting season. Easy, right?

There's obviously a lot of great storylines to follow this season. The Cubs are certainly one of them. Yes, they lost Kyle Tucker, but they gained Alex Bregman, still an elite third baseman and an upgrade from Matt Shaw in several ways. Bregman-Swanson-Hoerner-Busch may be one of the best infields in the league, on a count of how much can be produced, and how much value you're getting. The Cubs have reportedly tried to trade Nico Hoerner, but I wouldn't dream of it considering how valuable he's been for them, and how consistent he's been since 2022. With the Brewers looking to continue their sleeper-hit status and the Reds looking to compete without overdoing it, the Cubs are the favorite for 1st in the NL Central. Y'know, like last year. Is this the team that actually gets over the hump?

A lot of really cool stuff could happen in this season. Konnor Griffin might be ready in Pittsburgh, and that team might have enough to sneak into the conversation. The Athletics might be a playoff team this year, and have the contracts to last them through the Vegas premiere. Murakami might be the piece that gets the White Sox out of 'laughable' status. Andrew Painter might FINALLY get to start MLB games. Ohtani and Judge might chase 50 again. There's all sorts of promise and excitement, and I really hope this year can deliver, even if it's looking pretty likely that we might not get a full season next year.