More Than Skenes [For Once]

 

The bad news is the Pirates are in last place after losing 5 straight. The good news is that they're a last place team that's at .500, with the same record as the Tigers and Guardians. And the even better news is that they still have Paul Skenes.

The idea that Skenes would someday headline a halfway decent Pirates team was always possible, if unlikely, but this is the best they've looked in years, and Skenes is very much at the forefront. Though the quest for a sub-2 ERA for the third season in a row will be harder than usual thanks to that damn Mets start, he's still got a 3.18 ERA, a 4-2 record and 39 strikeouts. The domination that Skenes has always been capable of has continued, even through a rocky start. I do worry this will be a little closer to normal than usual for Skenes, as he's giving up more homers than expected, and just last night he gave up one to J.J. Wetherholt. But there's no true warning signs, and he's not having much trouble getting through games. 

The most telling part of the improved climate of this team is that it's not on Skenes as much as last year to carry the team. Keller and Ashcraft are strong starting options around him that can also carry the weight. Keller always looks like he's gonna worry people but he's got things worked out at last, and has a 3.18 ERA through 6 starts. Ashcraft has 39 Ks in 6 starts, as many as Skenes in 7, so that's pretty cool. Carmen Mlodzinski's innings-eating has parlayed into a fine starting spot. And the bullpen is better than it's been in a while, with Gregory Soto, Yohan Ramirez, Mason Montgomery, Isaac Mattson and Dennis Santana working on excellent seasons. 

And then suddenly, out of nowhere, we finally have a Pirates team that can hit. Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz, Ryan O'Hearn and Bryan Reynolds are all optimally raising the quality of the power hitting game. Cruz's is a lot more lopsided because he's still making mistakes in center, but those 9 homers say a lot. Lowe has been really fantastic in Pittsburgh, that's exactly why they dealt for him. O'Hearn is working as a corner infield/OF/DH bat. And Reynolds is hitting again. After a really weak 2025, Bryan Reynolds is hitting .246 with 19 RBIs and 3 homers, which is an improvement. Konnor Griffin's slowly warming up as well, and hopefully by midyear he's more comfortable in the bigs.

It's a Pirates team that's verging on multifaceted, with a lot of really interesting angles and upsides. I really do think they can outweigh the Cardinals and potentially even compete this year. Remember, we don't know how long they've got left with Skenes, so they've gotta do something soon.

Coming Tomorrow- My fantasy team this year has the very clever name of Big Amish Paradise, which was attained from picking up this guy right when he went on his HR tear last year. 

2026: Nothing is Immovable

 

The first game of the day I was able to watch was Mets-Pirates. I think stagnating the day as they did was a little odd, as they could have just done a bunch at 1 and a bunch at 7. Doing one game at 1, and it being Mets-Pirates...I mean, I get that it's a cool matchup, but don't you want to do some other ones as well? A little variety on the first real day of the season? I dunno, they seem to want to do it this way, and...fine. At least they put a game on NBC so people could actually watch it. 

But I did end up watching Mets-Pirates, because it felt like however way it went would be cool. I was of the opinion that Skenes would shut down the Mets' offense and the bullpen would blow it, and Peralta would be strong but not be ironclad against the improved Pirates offense. I was half right. Peralta gave up 2 homers to Brandon Lowe, and a solo shot to Ryan O'Hearn. The new guys did exactly what they were brought there to do, and that makes me feel better overall about the Pirates.

But...Paul Skenes could not get out of inning one. Against the Mets. Not that the Mets are bad, it's just the sort of older, high-risk/high-reward team he could do well against. But the combination of Skenes giving up easy ones and Oneil Cruz not being in position to cast them cost the Pirates 5 runs, and the bullpen cost the Pirates even more. 

The telling stat is this one- without that first inning, the Pirates win the game. If either Skenes doesn't struggle or Yohan Ramirez starts the game, that's 5 runs erased. And even if the Pirates bullpen, mostly Isaac Mattson, gives up even more runs, including the first career homer for Carson Benge, they still outscore the Mets. Freddy Peralta, strong as he was [comparatively], gave up 4 runs, Tobias Myers gave up 1 and Luis Garcia gave up 2 more. If there isn't a lead they need to be padding, they lose a game 7-6 to the Pirates on Opening Day. 

The moral, thereby, other than to always keep fighting, is that even the idea of putting Paul Skenes and Freddy Peralta in a position to succeed doesn't guarantee an outcome. Skenes can still struggle, Peralta can still struggle, and the offenses can still come alive. Nothing is guaranteed, not even Paul Skenes. 

It'll be interesting to see how both teams learn from today. For the Pirates, the game they could rely upon wasn't even a gimme, and they couldn't get it done, despite the continued offensive support. For the Mets, they outdueled a titan and found success with Bichette and Polanco at new positions...but they still allowed 7 runs, even with their best starter on the mound. If the wins are gonna be this close, they need to solve the problem before it ruins them, like last year. 

Regardless, this game was an excellent pacesetter for the season. The rest of the day was full of epic rookie debuts, huge HR moments and incredible pitching [especially in Milwaukee]. And it gives an idea of just how exciting this season's about to be. I'm here for it, for sure. 

Cy Youngs: Uncontroversially Yours

 
Here is how good of a pitching year 2025 was. We still have two very obvious Cy Young winners, while also having insanely worthy runners-up that could have won in another universe and a Zack Wheeler season that could have qualified had the injury not happened. It's not like a year where there was a clear standout performance and the writers went with Rick Porcello or some shit. No, Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal were the two best pitchers in baseball this year, and they deserve these. 

Paul Skenes getting a Cy Young in his first full season in the bigs and immediately after winning Rookie of the Year while still finishing 3rd in the Cy Young voting should tell you everything you need to know about his chops. We are still in the era where every Skenes start is must-see TV, and that's probably gonna be the case for a while. This year, Skenes' age-23 season, he posted a 7.7 WAR, a 1.97 ERA and 216 Ks, while leading the league in WHIP with 0.948. No wonder it was unanimous. Cristopher Sanchez had an amazing year, but it wasn't this good. At this point, nobody's topping Paul Skenes, because from LSU onward, Skenes has been doing shit that pitchers just cannot normally do. Now, granted, Bob Nutting, idiot that he is, doesn't seem to have any plans to sign him long-term. So this may all be just a preview for the Yankees or Dodgers to trade or sign somewhere down the road. But at the very least, he's giving Pirates fans a reason to care for the time being. It may not culminate in a full-team effort for 1st, but they've still got a one-of-a-kind pitcher, and they're savoring every moment.

Tarik Skubal's in a similar boat, where the Tigers' GM is also floating the possibility of dealing him, foolishly. If anyone's worth the money, it's Skubal. Two straight years he's been the best pitcher in the AL, and this year he even outdid a phenomenal Garrett Crochet season by plugging in even more, with a 2.21 ERA [lower than last year], 241 strikeouts [more than last year] and a 0.891 WHIP [lower than last year]. Skubal, after some injury plagued years, has found that sweet spot, and has become the ace this Tigers team desperately needs. I don't see them going as far without Skubal, because both postseasons to date have greatly relied upon Sku getting up there every 3 days and being unhittable. Dude made 3 starts this postseason, had a 1.74 ERA 36 strikeouts. THIRTY SIX STRIKEOUTS IN THREE GAMES. Just efficient as hell, and I'm happy to see it. 

If this was a just league, with just CEOs [heh, what an oxymoron], both these guys would be getting the money that Samuel Basallo, Jackson Chourio, Michael Harris and Lawrence Butler have gotten without proving themselves anywhere near as much. But y'know...just can't find that money, right?

The MVPs are a little hazier. Well, one of 'em is. How weird is it that I'm honestly rooting for the outcome where the Yankee doesn't win?

Inevitability and Paul Skenes

 

There's a piece of good news in the midst of the misery that is Pirates baseball recently. And that is since May 19th, the Pirates are 12-7. As atrocious as they were in May, they were able to come back, win some games, and go on a tear starting with a sweep of the Phillies and continuing with some fun games against Miami. Even if the Pirates still finish in fourth, which is likely, they will still do so with slightly more effort than previously thought, and with a few more immediate indications of future quality.

But the thing about all of this is that in all of the promise for what could be a competitive Pirates team, the current timetable still doesn't seem to indicate that it will include Paul Skenes. A year into his MLB career, Skenes is far and away the best player on the team, and may be the only truly great player in Pittsburgh this year. And judging by Bob Nutting's noncommittal mentality to building a baseball team, there may not be any reason for Skenes to stay in Pittsburgh going forward. Everyone knows it. Skenes himself knows it.

The big, damning stat is that Skenes, headed for Cy Young votes, has a 4-6 record. There are too many games he goes into, gives up 2 or less runs and still loses due to the infuriating lack of Pirates run support. His ERA is currently 1.88 through 14 starts, which is insane. He also leads the league in innings pitched with 91, in addition to his 92 strikeouts, meaning he's averaging one per inning. Skenes, at 23, has reached his peak period, and intends to continue at this pace for a while. We're still at the point where watching Skenes start is must-see TV, and even if he takes down your team [as he did Philly], you have to respect it. I am slightly worried about the Strasburg factor of cooking his arm, but I also think Skenes just has better overall mechanics than Strasburg. 

Regardless, the Pirates are trying to soldier on and continue their progress despite the possibility that their best player probably isn't getting extended and will likely be dealt in the next year or so. There's really not much to pay attention to at the moment. Oneil Cruz leads the NL in steals but also in strikeouts. Andrew Heaney has been a sharp veteran arm but A.) has a worse record than Skenes and B.) has 'dealt by July' written all over him. Henry Davis is finally hitting, but is it a mirage? It's just not a pretty picture overall, and the threat of Skenes leaving doesn't add to it.

Part of me just wants the tide to shift, and for the Pirates to have a Tigers-esque 'struck by lightning' moment that makes them a factor, but I don't know if that can happen when really just Skenes is tearing the place down for this team. Maybe I'm wrong, but it's looking like a one horse show for another year or so.

Coming Tomorrow- Seeing as the mock-ups for the Vegas stadium listed him as a starter for 2027 or whatever, it's a good thing he's started hitting. 

Rookies of the Year: We've Been Over This Before

 
I'm frankly getting tired of the asterisk ruining the Rookie of the Year award year after year. We just went over this with Randy Arozarena in 2021. For my money, if a player A.) gets rookie cards for playing in a given year, or B.) contributes positively to the league within his first season, that means his rookie service is over. But because team organizations don't sleep at night unless they've screwed over the worker, a rookie year doesn't count unless it's breached a certain bar of games played. It's why Arozarena was still a rookie in 2021 despite playing in many games in 2020, and being a key postseason figure for the Rays that year. Because of the season only being sixty games, he didn't reach that threshold, so his sophomore season outweighed many actual rookie seasons.

And that's how I feel about Luis Gil. Gil already made waves as a rookie in 2021, with his first three starts allowing 0 runs. Though he would only make six starts that season, Gil received rookie cards for the 2022 calendar year. I have several, because card companies made many of them. Gil, however, missed the next two seasons due to injury recovery, and was only a last minute choice to start in 2024 [and we know how well that went]. 

Gil's 2024 season was seen by many as a comeback season. He started strong, got hurt, missed time, came back and was outstanding. That doesn't sound like a rookie season. But in the rules of the MLB, because it broke the service time threshold despite his actual rookie year being three damned years ago, he was still a rookie this year. And as such, he won Rookie of the Year because he had the better season than the other actual rookies he was up against. You're putting a doberman in a dog show and you're confused that the doberman's eating the other dogs.

Now, the other two candidates for the AL Rookie of the Year, Austin Wells and Colton Cowser, did make MLB appearances last year. Neither made much of an impact in 2023. Gil, meanwhile, had a 0.8 WAR in 2021. That's not nothing. That's more than Jackson Holliday mustered in 60 games, it's more than Spencer Arrighetti amassed in 29 starts, and it's more than Spencer Torkelson has gathered in his entire career. IT IS A ROOKIE SEASON. But, of course, the rules remain set in stone, because god forbid they treat a young player like he's worth for spending three years on the 40-man of the richest team in the majors. 

And the thing about the 'comeback' tract now is that, because pitchers get injured more frequently, and sooner into their careers, than ever before, you're seeing 'comeback seasons' for people in their early 20s. What would ordinarily be seen as a breakout is now a comeback because it involves missing two years due to an injury that would come ten years later if everyone wasn't throwing so damned hard. This is what's frustrating me about Andrew Painter, who hasn't even played an MLB game yet. Painter's 2025 season is being billed as a 'comeback campaign'. The man hasn't even been HERE. He's not allowed to COME BACK yet, he's got to GET THERE FIRST. Let Andrew Painter have some MLB seasons for the Phils first, then we can talk about a comeback. 

Gil, meanwhile, is a comeback story. And I judged his 2024 season as such. If billing him as a rookie gets him more accolades, fine, but I don't think it's a wise conflation. Validating that will make it more understandable for organizations to keep futzing with service time and thinking of more ways to undervalue players, and we don't want that.

The inverse of this, of course, is that because Paul Skenes came up in May and won the NL's Rookie of the Year, that means he's automatically passed the rookie threshold. I assumed he did anyway, as his 2024 season is, by many respects, a rookie season. He pitched a very full campaign, an EXCELLENT campaign, and it was his first one in the major leagues. That is a rookie season, and now that it has ended...he is no longer a rookie. I shouldn't have to make it this plain. I was worried he wouldn't make the Topps cutoff and his rookie cards would be pushed to 2025, but thankfully cooler heads prevailed.

Skenes getting the ROY I 100% agree with, though honestly I would have agreed with Jackson Merrill getting it as well, or possibly even Jackson Chourio. You had so many really great rookie competitors in the NL this year, and Skenes was the flashier choice, so naturally he's a great pick for the gold. I'd have been worried if he wasn't considered. Skenes is also up for the Cy Young which...he isn't going to get, though I'm expecting him to edge Wheeler out of 2nd place just to ensure the voting committee can completely waste Wheeler's peak years. 

Anyway, these are two solid picks, but...the whole 'rookie service time' thing is never not gonna piss me off. Luis Gil wasn't a rookie this year. But hey, whatever sells more tickets I guess. 

The First Domino?

 

Paul Skenes, in his first 3 MLB games, has gone 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 21 Ks. Of the two games he was not credited for, one the Pirates were able to leg out, while the other got blown up by the bullpen. It tells me that we are early enough in the development of the Pittsburgh Pirates that Paul Skenes alone isn't quite the make or break force powering the Pirates yet. 

Though here's something interesting. Y'know who's hit a home run in each of Skenes' three starts thus far? Andrew McCutchen. Y'know, the LAST big rookie that the Pirates were designed to be built around.

And yes, I know there's been people like Bryan Reynolds, Ke'Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz that have developed prior to Skenes' call-up, but nobody cared about Mountcastle til Rutschman got called up. Sometimes, until the central figure comes around, it's just a couple of good young players hanging around. And then the guy appears, and...then it means something. And Skenes' early starts are an extremely good sign for the development of this team. The guy can go 6 innings, strike like 10 people out, and his power comes from his legs. So he's got less of a chance of an elbow issue, though, considering that he throws 100 mph, it's not exactly zero. 

But while Skenes at least has Cruz, Reynolds, Keller and Hayes that are working right now, the rest of this Pirates team needs to develop before Skenes feels more valuable. Cause a lot's on him now, cause he's the hot young thing, and it needs to be on the whole team. And while you're at least seeing Jared Triolo and Nick Gonzales doing well, there hasn't been a ton of true standouts on the hitting end. Hayes is out, Cruz is hitting .250 but struggling defensively, Suwinski and Davis are down in the minors after they were supposed to have big starts to the year. Replacement players are still getting a lot of time in Pittsburgh, and that might be the plan til some of these guys start consistently impressing people. 

And hopefully in that time Paul Skenes, as well as Keller and Jared Jones, will continue to pitch as well as they are now, and continue to be under team control. Because after giving up Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole and J.T. Brubaker, the last thing the Pirates want to see is another team taking one of their organizational pitching weapons far. Especially not the Yankees, they've had all three at different points. 

Still, I want Skenes' powerful run to keep going. Eventually, the Pirates will develop around him. It's just not gonna be immediate.

Coming Tomorrow- This year he probably figured he'd be playing for a last place team. The good news is, his team's in fourth right now. The bad news is it's not certain they'll be there for too long.

Paul Bearers

 

Not sure if any of you heard, but Paul Skenes made his debut yesterday. It, uh...certainly went.

Y'want the big #1 draft pick's line for his debut? 4 innings, 6 hits, 3 earned runs, 2 walks...7 strikeouts. He begins his career with a 6.75 ERA, but considering his first start was against a very good Cubs team, and prior to this he was playing against triple-A teams with only a small portion of the talent of big league rosters, I think it's understandable. A lesser pitcher would not come off as dominant, or impressive, given that line. Paul Skenes is not a lesser pitcher. Of the three #1 overall picks who have debuted this year, even with this small sample size, Skenes is still the strongest of the three, despite being the most recent draft pick of the three. Plus, the Pirates ended up winning the game, despite a very tense back-and-forth between offenses.

So what I'm saying is...Paul Skenes may have been the difference between a Pirates win and a Pirates loss. And if that's how things start, there's no indication that it's how they'll end.

The Pirates, to this point, have not been great. Nothing's really changed, but the schedule's evened out and they don't look like much compared to teams like the Red Sox, Giants and A's. Yet they can still take a few from division rivals like the Brewers. So they're able to provide upsets, but not as often as someone like the A's. The biggest criticism is there's just not a lot to this lineup. Reynolds and Hayes are great, but you're relying on bit players like Connor Joe and Michael Taylor at the moment, while homegrown guys like Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo are...getting there but not there yet. There's still way too many replacement guys in this lineup for them to be taken seriously, even if they formerly reigned supreme, like Rowdy Tellez, Yasmani Grandal and, yes, Andrew McCutchen, who's very human despite a strong game yesterday. The expectation was for Henry Davis to be great this year in Endy Rodriguez's absence. He is not.

The pitching is the sole thing keeping this team out of last. Skenes and Jones are a very powerful rookie duo now, but even aside from that, the veteran piecemeal strategy actually works here. Martin Perez is having another solid season in his mid 30s, with a 3.60 ERA and 36 Ks. Quinn Priester has actually become a decent low-rotation option, and could definitely could build on his early starts to make something happen. Same with Bailey Falter, who has seen some magic happen in certain starts. Mitch Keller's elevated ERA is concerning, but he's still got the right idea in terms of his mechanics. The bullpen's a little more bloated than it should be but Colin Holderman's still among the best in the biz, and David Bednar's been decent despite some slight injury setbacks. 

This is not a perfect team, and it's not a team that looks especially intimidating as it is right now. But this is the Pirates as Paul Skenes arrives. The hope is that he helps make this team something again, and as they are now they're extremely okay. Maybe soon enough they won't be.

Coming Tonight: So get this. He's a relief pitcher. But NO ONE CAN HIT HIM. They don't even get the chance!

On Hype, Heat, and Hunter Greene

 

This week, it was announced that one of the top prospects in baseball, a flamethrower that no one can hit, will be activated in time for a start on Saturday. Imagine if you were just described that way two years ago, you're in the same division, and you've gotta go against him at some point.

Hunter Greene is a fascinating story, even this early in his career. As a prospect he made waves because of how hard he threw and how many people he could strike out. Then it turned out that it wasn't sustainable and he needed surgery. To this day he's yet to throw a full season's 33 games, and has only gone as far as 24...despite, y'know, never finishing with lower than 150 strikeouts in a full season. Greene reminds me of early Stephen Strasburg, in that the mechanics are there, and he can really mess with you with those speeds, even if the ERA is higher than it needs to be. Like, his current 3.12 ERA is his career lowest at the moment. He usually goes higher than 4. He's also never finished a season with a winning record.

So that's honestly the issue with Hunter Greene. He has extraordinary abilities and high velocity material, but he's yet to really spin together an excellent full season. This may have to do with not having a good team til about now, but if you're a good enough pitcher that doesn't have to be an excuse.

Right now Greene's one of the standouts for the Reds, he's got a 3.12 ERA, 47 Ks and a 1.5 WAR. What helps is that the weight isn't entirely on him, and despite a few rotation injuries there's still people like Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft, Nick Lodolo and Frankie Montas who can be trusted to leg out full starts without bleeding too much. Montas just got activated and he's looking good again, which helps. The Reds have been hoping for Greene to be the central figure of a powerful rotation for a long time, and that seems to be what's in the mix at the moment.

Granted, the team's in 4th place at the moment due to the flickering life in the Pirates, which is only about to be further ignited by the weekend arrival of Paul Skenes. And yes, Hunter Greene must be looking at Skenes like he's looking at a past version of himself. Skenes is terrific, and damn near unhittable, but at this rate it's only a matter of time before he needs some sort of arm surgery. Skenes and Jones in the same rotation could be deadly, but how long will that last? Who's to say? 

Similarly, we've reached a rare moment where Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Abbott are all healthy at once. Williamson's gonna be down for a while, but these four are not only healthy, but getting the job done for the Reds. And considering that they just got T.J. Friedl back, the Reds could go on a tear this month, even with the Pirates in full Skenes mode. So either way, something wild's about to happen in this division, and it's gonna be fun to watch.

Coming Tonight: His first contracted year with his new club went pretty poorly, but now he's gotten it together, and at the exact moment where the rotation needs him the most. 

Waiting for Paul

 

This is Jared Jones. He throws really hard and plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Jones currently has 39 strikeouts, which is the second most in all of baseball. It might also be one of the highest strikeout totals in someone's first 5 games or something like that, bottom line is he's doing things that not a lot of rookies have done, and he's doing it in Pittsburgh. 

However, the Pirates, who were 11-5 last week, are now 12-11, meaning the Pirates have once again squandered a huge start by being the Pirates. They're currently in fourth place in the NL Central, and a lot of the pieces that were delivering in week 1 are now barely hitting for average and don't have more than 10 RBIs to show for it. The team has series against the Brewers and Giants, two tough teams, before a much gentler batch of games against the Rockies and A's, and with the more tepid tides pulling into Pittsburgh, fans are growing worried. They saw this team's potential, and even with someone like Jared Jones, or even the last three powerful rookies, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Henry Davis and Oneil Cruz, they're still not playing as well as they should be.

And I know that things aren't great. I know they just lost like 6 in a row. And I know that Quinn Priester doesn't seem like a very sturdy fifth rotation option. But it is wild to me that a Pirates fan can look at a rotation where Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Bailey Falter and Martin Perez are all performing extremely well, and have each contributed excellent starts throughout April, and go 'this needs Paul Skenes'.

I think it is fairly understandable that the Pittsburgh Pirates are being extremely careful with Paul Skenes. They're making sure he only pitches a few innings in Indianapolis, spacing his starts out, and they're definitely ensuring he has enough time in the minors, even if Wyatt Langford can do what he's doing. The state of pitching right now is dire, and everyone's been throwing so hard in developmental leagues that they're at risk of blowing a gasket by the time they hit the majors. Paul Skenes throws hard, and nobody can hit him. But at any point, he could wear out his arm and need surgery. It happened to Andrew Painter last year and we still haven't heard from him.

Rushing Skenes and injuring him minutes into his rookie campaign is the worst thing the Pirates could do. After what happened to Jasson Dominguez, it's a possibility, and not one they want on their conscience right now. So I get why they haven't promoted him. If they're doing well enough right now, and if Priester and Falter can still at least keep runs down, we don't need Paul Skenes. And might I also add...the Pirates HAVE a rookie who can throw smoke right now. Jared Jones. Remember him, top of the post? So like, it says a lot for a fanbase to see someone playing beautifully and pitching like a god and immediately go 'WE WANT BETTER'. Skenes and Jones in the same rotation is a great idea, but we will get there naturally, otherwise it'll be like the 2010s Mets rotations where they're never healthy at the same time and the moment they are is like the moment in This is the End where Michael Cera is being really mean to Jonah Hill and Christopher Mintz-Plasse, like this is what we wanted all along only now it's nowhere near as happy.

The Pirates could be slowly on the upswing, though. Andrew McCutchen's getting hot again, that's always a good thing. Aroldis Chapman can still hit 100, he's been useful. Nobody's really hitting for power but you can see people starting to. So maybe it won't be all bad. 

What I'm saying is, Pirates fans...have a tiny bit of faith. They may not need Skenes. The O's didn't necessarily need Holliday, did they?

Coming Tonight: Speaking of people from strong rotations that can throw really hard...