Contract Offloading With a Purpose

 

It had to have been an easy conversation between the GMs of the Mariners and the Giants. "Listen...I paid too much for a guy that always gets injured, YOU paid two much for some guys that always get injured...why don't we make our lives easier there?" And that's why I can sort of get behind the logic that sends Robbie Ray to San Francisco in exchange for Mitch Haniger and Anthony Desclafani. 

First of all, the biggest exclamation point for Mariners fans is 'hey, Haniger's back!' The hard-hitting outfielder provided his best work in Mariners colors, and despite constantly getting off to a great start then immediately getting injured, a presence like that was sorely missed in 2023. Meanwhile, Giants fans got...a guy who has a great start then immediately gets injured. They hadn't exactly been missing that in Evan Longoria's absence. Putting Haniger back in Seattle is good for all involved parties, because he clearly likes it there, and the fans really like him. It also solves a problem the Mariners caused themselves by trading away too many outfielders, as now that Kelenic and probably Teoscar are gone, they have outfield space that Haniger can now fill. It's a very feel good, 'this is how it should have been all along' sort of move.

The 'Disco for Ray' thing is where things get a bit harder to understand.

Trading away Robbie Ray in itself, while on the surface a little baffling, does make sense. As strong as Robbie Ray was in 2022, he was a no-show last year, meaning that the M's had to rely on so many young options to fill the void. Luckily they figured out a really strong rotation schematic by the end of the year, going with Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Five young, strong, controllable arms that were consistent through the last third of the season. Going into a 2024 with those options AND Emerson Hancock AND Robbie Ray, obviously someone would be sitting out. And this move indicates that the M's would either trade Ray to somewhere less crowded than demote Woo or Miller to keep a veteran on top. It's an efficient, cost-cutting move that makes a ton of sense. 

Now, the part that's a little baffling is what they're gonna do with Anthony Desclafani. Disco is a great pitcher, but he's been even more injury prone than Ray, is older than Ray, and less of a 'let's stick him ahead of the young kids' trap card. So now you just have another low man on the depth chart. Disco will basically be the Chris Flexen of the 2024 rotation- if he gets starts, it will be because of injuries to the young core. If not, he'll be a successful long man and a sturdy arm when he can get there. They're paying him a bit to BE a sixth man, but I think it's the most efficient way through this.

As for Robbie Ray in SF? Honestly, that fit might be the best one of this whole trade. The Giants need to build a rotation that isn't relying too much on Logan Webb, they have people like Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn working their way up, and aside from Webb and Cobb, they don't have many sure things for the rotation. With Robbie Ray back at 100% hopefully, despite the uncertainty of him being ready for Opening Day, the Giants now have another proven starting weapon that can, hopefully, give you 32 starts and keep you rolling all year long. It takes the pressure off of Webb, and it begins to build this team back as the vets begin to leave. 

Some of the pieces will likely fall into place, but this Giants-Mariners deal actually makes a lot of sense. Now, this Jose Caballero for Luke Raley thing? A team with too many DHs trading for a DH and a team with too many .150 hitting defensive middle infielders trading for a [slightly better] hitting defensive middle infielder? THAT doesn't make a lick of sense. 

This Ain't No Disco

 

Somewhat unsurprisingly, the Giants have stumbled a little out of the gate after competing for the last few years. They still have enough pieces to compete, and made sure of this during the offseason by signing Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea and Taylor Rogers. But with the Dodgers and Padres still better put together, the Diamondbacks now surging, and even more pieces from the now-distant 2021 team gone, it's a bit harder for them to really stand out in this division.

Now, on one hand, them not having as many big guns as usual isn't the worst thing, because the way Gabe Kapler operates, anybody can be a big piece of this Giants team, as Thairo Estrada, LaMonte Wade Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, Jakob Junis, and now Blake Sabol, have become big pieces while coming from other systems. Hell, pulling off the move of trading Darin Ruf for J.D. Davis, waiting for him to absolutely suck in another system and get DFA'd, then bringing him back for basically nothing and watching him get back to what he was doing in the bay is a damn near Cashman-esque move. 

Also, it occurs to me now that Kaplerball in SF is a way less infuriating version of what Kevin Cash has been doing in Tampa, but maybe that's because Kaplerball doesn't always work. 

Anyway. Even with Logan Webb as the marquee starter [UPDATE: You know, when I set this to publish, I checked if he'd been signed to an extension yet and he hadn't, and then 15 minutes after I set publish the Giants announced they'd signed him to an extension, so...that's just funny], the biggest offerings as far as pitching is concerned have been from lower-risk starters like Anthony DeSclafani, finally back from injuries, and Alex Wood, who has been an unsung hero of every rotation he's ever been a part of at this point. Disco is the big takeaway, only allowing 1 run and striking out 11 over the course of his first two starts. Webb and Alex Cobb are also efficient but haven't won a game yet. And then you have Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea, who both don't really have the stuff that made them fixtures in their prime. It's not ideal, but the lower-rotation guys are coming through and making it a little easier.

Also, if your bullpen consists of Tyler Rogers, Taylor Rogers, Camilo Doval, John Brebbia, Jakob Junis and Scott Alexander streaking as he was when he started, you're doing something pretty well. All of those guys are off to decent starts, TyRod and Doval are both viable closing options, and Taylor will...eventually lower his ERA. A very close-knit, uncomplicated bullpen group. 

Right now this is a very low-key, unimpressive Giants team that is just beginning to heat up a bit now that Joey Bart's back and Concerto's finding the water. They could improve and really take on the heat of the division, but only if a lot of really small things come together.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who, at the very least, deserves to be on a team that's won 13 straight games.

Topps Cards That Should Have Been: 2014 Marlins

 

I will give Topps credit for a few things in 2014 regarding the Miami Marlins, who were still mostly bad at this point. They actually did make Marlins cards of Rafael Furcal, Donovan Solano, Randy Wolf and Reed Johnson, some fringe guys who, if they hadn't done flagship cards of them, I'd have to. 

However. It still left some very important work for me to do for 2014. VERY IMPORTANT WORK.

For instance. Two of their biggest rookies of the 2014 season came in after the cutoff. One of them has become one of the best catchers in baseball, and that's J.T. Realmuto. In 2014, he was still going by Jacob, and still trying to break in behind Jarrod Saltalamacchia. In 11 games, he hit .241 7 hits and 9 RBIs, not a bad ratio whatsoever. It was a prelude to the next several seasons of excellent catching and hitting we'd see from him.

Jeff Baker and Garrett Jones got cards as Marlins, but the guy who would actually get the 1st base job in Miami, Justin Bour, also didn't make the cutoff. He had a stronger rookie debut than Realmuto, with a .284 average, 11 RBIs and 21 hits in 49 games. His numbers would dilute over time with the Marlins and he was last spotted hitting .170 in the Korean leagues. 

As for another Marlins rookie who didn't make the cutoff, Anthony DeSclafani had 13 games as a Miami Marlin, which a lot of people forget after his tenures with the Reds and Giants. He started 5 games, and struggled in that position, with a 7.40 ERA and 2 losses. He'd fare better as a bullpen piece. After the season he'd be traded for Mat Latos, become an option in a dead Reds rotation, and the rest would be history. But he is one of those players whose early uniform is so unfamiliar that I wished Topps would have done something with it. 

Same with this guy. Like with Disco, Enrique Hernandez' Topps cards begin after his trade to a better market, in this case being Los Angeles, but Hernandez' time in Miami is thanks to a trade that brought Jake Marisnick and others to Houston. So already Topps missed his Astros tenure [and I'll get to that eventually], but they also missed his 18 games in Miami. Because he hadn't BECOME Kiké Hernandez yet, his numbers weren't great, he hit .175 with 6 RBIs and 2 homers, but his defensive numbers are what caught the eye of the Dodgers, and led them to trade for him when dealing Dee Gordon. 

Brad Hand had cards in the previous two Topps sets, so as he was settling into a role as a modest reliever, Topps thought they didn't need to make cards of him as often. So they missed Hand's 2014 season, where he had a 4.38 ERA and 67 Ks in 32 games, 16 of which were starts. Once he'd become a full time reliever he'd blossom, take the ninth, and, yes, get more Topps cards. 

With a visual as strange as this, you would think that Topps would have to put it in Update. Brad Penny, 2000s Marlins hero...in 2010s Marlins garb? I talked about seeing Xavier Nady in 2014-era Padres duds, this is just as strange. At 36, Penny was still pitching, though he was nowhere near as powerful as he was in the mid-2000s, and with a lack of great options, the Marlins did start Penny for 4 games. Honestly, his best numbers of the season were in these starts, with a 5.21 ERA and 2 wins. He'd yield 8 earned runs in 4 relief appearances, though, and that inconsistency would lead to his dismissal, and subsequent retirement. For a great career, especially as a Marlin, Brad Penny really should have had a Topps card in 2014. But, alas, he has one here.

Tomorrow, some very strange 2007 Mets that I have been waiting a while to post.

Disco 2000 [or Why the Giants Are in First]

 

It was looking pretty normal til around mid-April.

The Dodgers were in first, the Padres were in second, the Giants were well over .500 but in third, the other 2 fell in. This was the way the NL West was supposed to fall. 

And then the Dodgers started losing games. Badly. They started completely falling apart. May got injured, the lineup stopped hitting for average, it began to unravel. The Padres also began to lose some ground thanks to injuries and also some outmatched games. 

And by the beginning of May, who was standing on 1st place in the hottest division in the NL but the one team everybody thought would stay in third this year. Those San Francisco Giants. You've got to love it, they're the underdogs again.

And what's even funnier is that the same strategy I've been ridiculing this team for since 2018, stocking up on older players and older contracts rather than letting the youth movement breathe, is actually working because the Giants saw how Washington utilized an older core in 2019. Because said older core in SF is made up of longer-tenured contracted players, this one has more of a chance for sustainability. Now, granted, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani and Donovan Solano are all free agents after this season, and there's a chance for Buster Posey, Johnny Cueto and Wilmer Flores not to make their options. So this could all be gone by next season, which means this, like Washington, is a win now or never sort of plan.

And right now it's just...really working.

Let's see- Aaron Sanchez gets injured in his masterful comeback attempt, and Alex Wood ascends to the rotation in his place and starts killing it again, with 3 wins and 22 Ks in 4 starts. Johnny Cueto just got off the IL yesterday, and though he was seasonably roughed up by the Padres, he's still a healthy, consistent arm to add to Wood, Logan Webb, and the impenetrable duo of Gausman and DeSclafani. Gausman we all know was gonna be big this year, but Disco has been a nice surprise on a one-year deal, with a 2.40 ERA and 36 Ks in 7 starts. 

The lineup is just...every holdover from the 2010 runs doing well, including Buster Posey [who's on fire], Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria, some new guys like Yaz and Austin Slater doing their thing, and the 'anyone-can-succeed-here' bench mentality which isn't just benefitting Darin Ruf and Wilmer Flores, but former Yankee bench player Mike Tauchman, who's been unsurprisingly great filling in for Alex Dickerson in his first 2 weeks of Giants play. 

The Giants are red-hot, cemented when the rest of the division is crumbling, and looking at some more strong series' ahead. I hope they stay this hot, because an NL West upset like this would be excellent for baseball.

Coming Tomorrow- Look, if Brandon Lowe's not gonna hit in Tampa, then this 3rd baseman might as well.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2020: Reds (Part One)

Of all the fringe teams that squeezed into the playoffs this year, the one that made me happiest might have been the Cincinnati Reds. This team has been so close to good recently, and even if this team still had some issues, the fact that they made the playoffs even for a few games against Atlanta is still pretty cool. 

The big issue for this Reds team is the fact that while the pitching staff definitely showed up, the lineup was a few steps behind last year's. And you had guys like Eugenio Suarez, who were AWESOME in 2019, having more human moments, and hitting .202 despite leading the team in homers with 15 and RBIs with 38. Geno is still a great player, but he's gonna get caught up if he doesn't figure out how to strike out less.

2021 Prediction: Another 30 homer year with an ASG gig. Not sure if all of it will be with Cincinnati, though.

It's become clear that Joey Votto is officially past his prime, with a negative WAR year and some very perfunctory stats, and it's looking like he's just gonna have the Cabrera/Pujols status of continuing to play and do what he can without being very statistically impressive. Which is fine. I mean, Votto is a future Hall of Famer, he's had a ton of great seasons and everything, but...hitting .226 is new for him. Yes, he still hit 11 homers, but his contact abilities have lessened, and I can only imagine if the DH stays in the NL he'll be moved over there.

2021 Prediction: A slight upswing in average, but similar, end-of-career stats.

In his first season in Cincinnati after two strong years in a row, Mike Moustakas was...slightly disappointing. Look, he still had 8 homers and 27 RBIs, but he hit .230 with barely enough WAR totals to really register as a member of this team, similar to Nick Castellanos. Is it the oddity of the season, or is Moose beginning to trail off himself?

2021 Prediction: 30 home runs, barely any average to go with it.

Tucker Barnhart had a strong year this year, with his best defensive numbers since 2017, earning him his second gold-glove behind the plate. His plate numbers aren't the priority, but he did...alright. .204 with 13 RBIs. That's fine, especially if he's still an awesome catcher. I'll take that.

2021 Prediction: A full potential, all-star, better-offensively season for Barnhart. And then the eyes of the rest of the league start watching

Alright, so the big 3 of the Reds rotation truly made waves in 2020, and set the rest of the league ablaze. Yet the one starter that sort of fell through the cracks was 2018's standout, Tyler Mahle, the homegrown fireballer who fanned 60 in 10 games with a 3.59 ERA. Which means, yes, lower ERA than Sonny Gray.

2021 Prediction: Most likely to succeed early next year, and most likely to be traded if the team doesn't succeed. 

The fifth member of the rotation, Anthony Desclafani, took a huge step backwards after a return to form year last year. Disco was saddled with a 7.22 ERA in 9 games, and was eventually moved to the bullpen. Not a great way to end his tenure in Cincinnati.

2021 Prediction: A low-cost signing that pays off for SF. 

I have a ton more bullpen/post-Opening-Day members of this team that I'll post later tonight.

The Last Days of Disco

Well, for the second year in a row, the Cincinnati Reds are the single most likable bad team in baseball.

Even as they were playing a series against my Phillies, I couldn't help but like them. So many fun, charming players on that team. I mean, obviously Michael Lorenzen, he of his home-run-hitting and awesome relief pitching. And then you get fun bench guys like Curt Casali, Derek Dietrich and Freddy Galvis. And now you have all the young kids coming up, like Aristedes Aquino, Nick Senzel, Josh VanMeter and Phil Ervin, and they're all ready.

And then you have the favorites, like Joey Votto, Sonny Gray and Eugenio Suarez. And thank god there are some new favorites being cemented this year, like Anthony DeSclafani, or 'Disco' as he's affectionally known. Disco's having his best year since 2015, and is becoming the steady guy the Reds were hoping they'd get in that Mat Latos trade. Plus, you still have Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and now Trevor Bauer classing up that rotation, though Bauer's doing his usual learning curve tanking right now.

The Reds are so fun and rootable that it pains me to see them miss out on the playoffs yet again. Honestly, this division is so tough that it's really evened out the competition, and the Reds are good enough to be good...but not enough to be really chasing first. And I don't even know when this team will be enough, because I want to think it's soon. The pieces are all there. The only free agents are expendable guys like Jose Iglesias and Alex Wood. This team could collectively slam 2020, and we could FINALLY see one of these Reds teams compete.

...I hope.

Coming Tomorrow- One of those guys that took me all year to find a good enough photo for a custom. Which sucks when you're the only good player in the lineup and you can't do anything good enough to warrant a good photo.