Well, Never Mind About the Jeffers Thing, I Guess

 

This trade deadline season's been nauseating. Like 19 teams are at .500 and each day they flip flop between buying and selling, and the news media cannot keep up. And everything's being taken back as well. Hunter Greene was shopped, and then all of the sudden he wasn't. Randy Arozarena was being shopped, and now he's the game winner. I think the press is beginning to figure out just how noncommittal everyone is to make deadline moves, because they spent like 10 minutes yesterday begging the Angels to trade Mike Trout to Philly, forgetting that they're rumored to do this every year and never do it. When even MLB Network is going 'EVEN WE WANT THIS', you know something's up.

The Twins were looking like sellers all season, on account of...being the Twins and beginning the season gutted, and now they're building up enough to start buying, dealing for A.J. Minter and Dean Kremer. So...the whole post I had last week about how the Twins were just fooling no one waiting to deal Ryan Jeffers? Yeah, that's aged badly. Cause they're not dealing Ryan Jeffers. Or Byron Buxton. Or Joe Ryan. Despite the fact that they are AT .500 and probably SHOULD deal...they likely won't. So goodbye to that pipe dream of a better catcher in New York.

However...the Yankees appeared to have moved onto a new candidate. This one from a team that will no doubt be selling still, despite holding onto Hunter Greene. The Cincinnati Reds. They're shopping Tyler Stephenson. And that might be who the Yankees end up getting. That's...I mean, I'd have been better off with Jeffers, but I guess there's some upsides.

Stephenson has always been a decent catcher with the occasional power burst who just can't seem to stay lucky. He was a sharp young piece as the Reds developed their core, but injuries, inefficiency and rough stretches have prevented him from becoming a truly transcendent catching piece. April and May he was underwhelming, but in June he hit .288 and in July he hit .339, with 21 hits. The power numbers have been kind of blah though, he only has 8 homers and 30 RBIs, and while it's great that he's more well-rounded, the Yankees wouldn't be getting him to just be an okay contact piece. They need a guy who can do what Austin Wells isn't doing, which is consistently make an impact. Stephenson is good, but he's not GREAT. And if we get him and he does the same thing Wells has been doing, that won't be a very good time.

Aside from Stephenson, the Reds really don't have a ton else to unload. J.J. Bleday could get nibbles but he's down from where he was in May. Maybe Brady Singer? Maybe Emilio Pagan or Tejay Antone? They really don't have a ton to work with right now, and Spencer Steer, who would have been a great deadline piece, is down for the next week or so, so he'll miss the cutoff. 

At the very least, the Reds have a serious rookie of the year candidate, Sal Stewart, a serious Cy Young candidate, Chase Burns, and a serious-ish MVP candidate, Elly de la Cruz. Those guys aren't going anywhere. Stewart and Burns look like foundational guys for this team, and they could help them get over the fact that this era of the rebuild has not worked. Which is the fault of Friedl, Steer, McLain and Stephenson for not being superstars when they looked like they were about to take off. The Reds can still be good eventually. It's unfortunately not gonna happen with this regime, at least not fully. But the thing about Terry Francona is an organization is never completely out while he's running it.

Coming Tomorrow- A first baseman who is probably keeping his job, but at this rate who knows?

Can't Get There From Here

 

The Royals and the Reds are two teams that people thought would be doing a lot better by now than they actually are. They're in danger of selling. It is possible they can still deliver...but how?

The Reds made the playoffs last year, and got to play the Dodgers. That was their first problem. Their second was the continued revolving door of young, hard-throwing pitchers, which is once again causing them trouble this season. They just got Hunter Greene back, and he's slowly getting back to his old self, but they just lost Nick Lodolo, they're without Brandon Williamson again, and Rhett Lowder, while healthy, just doesn't have it right now. They have Andrew Abbott, Chase Burns and Greene all working...but the way this team works, the second something starts working or an element is added, something else will fall off. Eventually Lodolo will come back, it's a blister issue, but can they hold onto that before something else goes wrong?

The lineup is a different issue entirely. They have everybody in one place but most of them aren't doing anything. Eugenio Suarez was brought here to hit homers like he did last year, and he's hit only 11 thanks to injuries and general inefficiency. Stephenson, McLain, Friedl and Marte are all bowling gutter balls. McLain still struggling to meet .200 after everything he was supposed to do feels insulting. It's really down to Sal Stewart, Elly de la Cruz and J.J. Bleday to do all the work, with occasional assistance by Spencer Steer, who at least has 14 homers and 35 RBIs, and Nathaniel Lowe, who's also still an RBI machine. But it's a limp lineup with next to nothing to say, and when even the Pirates and Cardinals have more to offer, you're sort of stuck.

The thing about the Reds is I don't think they can sell too much because they're still in the rebuilding phase, but who knows if someone who's been there all decade, like Stephenson or Antone, will get dealt.

The Royals are a bit more open about what they're gonna be doing. The contracts are gonna go. Wacha's probably leaving, Lugo's probably leaving, maybe a few others. It's not the kind of thing where the big stars like Witt, Caglianone or Garcia are in danger, but there's a way for this team to still compete in the future without sinking under their own ambition.

And you can still see the Royals clinging to 2024 with this roster. Michael Massey's still out there trying to play everyday, and while he's better at it than he was he hasn't really gotten anywhere. Vinnie Pasquantino still isn't the guy he was supposed to be, and this year he's been very quiet, with 6 homers and 32 RBIs. Bubic and Ragans are working solutions but they haven't been sustainable this year, much like Carlos Estevez, Kyle Isbel and Jonathan India. You're seeing things evolve slightly, like Isaac Collins's decent work as an OF bat, Tyler Tolbert and his consecutive hits, and especially Carter Jensen getting reps behind the plate. Right now he's got 13 homers and 49 RBIs, which is a bit more on-target than the other Royals catcher at the moment, sad to say. Jensen's 22, he's a great hitting catcher, and he's got a future there. That's a start. Same with Caglianone and Witt, it's good that they're succeeding here. But there's just so much that hasn't held up, and the team can't really compete.

Even in a division where most teams are under .500, and a lot of the pack is just as disappointing, the Royals can't match up. They don't really have that x-factor right now, even WITH Caglianone and Witt. Even if they probably have more going for them than the Reds, they're further from competing at the moment. Hopefully both teams get to where they were supposed to eventually, but as it stands now...already looking like a long second half.

Coming Tonight: A rookie pitcher for the Angels who's taken advantage of the ample playing time. 

Mind the Gap

 

A couple weeks ago, I wrote one of these on the Reds, essentially saying 'obviously the team could crater without Elly de la Cruz, they need to prevent that'. And barring two big wins against the Yankees, they really haven't. 

I got to watch these guys in the Bronx friday night, the one game they lost out of the series, and I saw a team that looked kinda lost. Rhett Lowder was starting, and he's more of a leverage guy than I previously figured. Not a whiffer, at least not anymore. And while his placement was overall pretty strong, on a couple of occasions he put it in the wrong spot and somebody, like Jazz Chisholm or Ben Rice, took advantage. Lowder's also one of those 'don't overthrow or out for ages' kinda guys, so it's a treacherous game to play. The lineup itself, without Elly, felt listless. They've got guys who can hit, like J.J. Bleday or Sal Stewart, but against the Yanks' pitching that night they really couldn't. The heart of that lineup is guys like Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Nate Lowe who are...fine, but...not over the top great. They had Edwin Arroyo in for Elly that night, and...yeah, very replacement level. And the bullpen contains guys like Caleb Ferguson or Zach Maxwell, a guy who throws absolute smoke and has no control over it.

And the things that are working are just kinda weird. Like they have Blake Dunn up right now, and Dunn's one of those guys that's just struggled to find success in the majors, to the point where I always confused him with Oliver Dunn, a Brewers guy who had a similar track record. But Dunn's been excellent covering for T.J. Friedl, and he's hitting .272 with 37 hits in 36 games. Far and away the best hitter in the Elly-less stretch, though Stewart had some bombs in that run too. Bleday is kinda already in this category, I wrote him off after last season and now he's a mainstay yet again. Even Andrew Abbott's having a comparatively strange season, because it started with a lot of rough starts and run bleeding....but by and large he's honestly having a fine year. 3.83 ERA, 5-4 record, 1.8 WAR. He's definitely improved over time, and the Yanks start helped. I think I'm just surprised he's not 2025-good, but it's better than getting hurt, like most Reds pitchers after a strong season. Like you can see that Lodolo and Singer are fried from what they did while healthy last year and look a little strung out. Same with Pagan honestly. So it's very nice that Abbott and Burns are holding up alright.

Still, everything you've heard from the Reds so far this week has been 'look how badly the Brewers' pitching is feasting on them'. First Woodruff has a 1-hit dominant start. Then the other Brandon, Brandon Sproat, has a 1-hit dominant start. They had Shane Drohan tonight, and to be fair he's given up a few more hits, but it is going similarly, otherwise, as I write this. So even with Elly back, that's still the narrative. The Reds are a last place team in a tough division not delivering on the promises of the 2025 season, and waterlogged by injuries and inefficiency despite two genuine starmaking performances. Occasionally you get a cool nugget, like Julian Garcia finally making it to the bigs, but right now that's all they're good for.

Then again...who knows what'll happen when Hunter Greene comes back.

Coming Tomorrow- The Astros have a lot of frayed or vacant pieces this year...but they still have Yordan Alvarez and this guy.

Without Elly

 

So. The day the Reds land, solely, in last place, also happens to be the day that Elly de la Cruz lands on the IL. And now the Reds are without Elly, Hunter Greene, Rhett Lowder, Graham Ashcraft, Emilio Pagan, Jose Trevino and Ke'Bryan Hayes. And while, yes, they are still over .500, and still technically a good team...you take away the tentpole and you see the flaws.

Okay, so who's their best hitter now that Elly's hurt? Well you'd think from his April that Sal Stewart would fit that bill, but he's quieted down a great deal since then, and despite some prime stats [.261 average, 12 homers, 37 RBIs], his May was way less eventful. Actually, their best hitter right now is J.J. Bleday, the A's outfield castoff whose offense tried to make up for his lackluster defense. He's rolled into an everyday role and is hitting .303 with 9 homers and 26 RBIs in 30 games. His May was pretty incredible, and he's already been named one of the players of the month. So even if the Reds were struggling, and considering how many people on this team aren't even hitting .200 it's no wonder, Bleday was an excellent jolt forward. Power from Nathaniel Lowe and a surprising bounce back from Spencer Steer have also helped. 

But yeah, when Stephenson, McLain, Friedl, Benson and Hayes are all hitting under .200, you have to take a step back and regroup. This team has been trying to put a workable formula together for so long, and you'd think that all of these guys would be able to put together good seasons. But McLain once again is struggling to hit substantially, even with more productivity in the last few weeks than he had in April. That Stephenson and Friedl are replacement-level this year are especially heartbreaking.

Thankfully the rotation has solidified a bit, and the Reds haven't needed to do as much starter juggling as usual. Chris Paddack has settled into that 5th spot, and while it's not terrific it's better than his Miami stuff. Singer's struggling but he's eating innings. Lodolo's still got a 5 ERA but he usually figures out how to get it down. Abbott's more hittable than he's ever been but even he's managed to get his ERA under 4. And then Chase Burns is just having an incredible year all around, with a 1.96 ERA, 7 wins and 72 Ks already. I do worry about the bullpen now that Johnson's hurt, but they've got enough workable options at the moment that it's not terribly worrying.

Hopefully by the time Elly gets back there's still stuff that can be salvaged. Cause if not, we may have an NL Central team dip below .500. We wouldn't want that, right?

Coming Tonight: Another guy on a team that probably thought it'd have a better lineup this year. 

Red Above Water

 

Meanwhile, in the division where every team is good, the Reds, who are just a game over .500, are a fourth place team. 24 wins may be enough for 1st place in other divisions, but in a division where the Cubs, Brewers and Pirates are also there, and the Cardinals can go on a random streak denoted by unnecessary shiftlessness, it gets the Reds to fourth and that's it.

I think the Reds honestly should be lucky they're still above .500, considering that The Thing That Always Happens to the Reds has happened again. That's right, this frigging rotation can't keep from mishaps for five seconds. Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson are out, despite 2026 being long-awaited returns for them both, Hunter Greene isn't back til July, Andrew Abbott technically isn't hurt but is certainly throwing like the 2025 workload's caught up to him, and once again we're resorting to failsafe measures for that fifth spot. Right now Chris Paddack has it, they snagged him from Miami after that didn't work, and he was decent enough in his first start, only allowing 2 runs in 5 innings. But...this rotation was built to not have to resort to Chris Paddack. You build a team around Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Williamson, Lowder and Burns, and then suddenly they all keep getting hurt. It didn't happen to this extent last year, but at least last year they still had Nick Martinez as a backup. Now he's a Plan A measure in Tampa. And as a reminder, the current failsafes if THIS rotation doesn't work are either Chase Petty, who was okay in a 2026 start, and Julian Aguiar, who...apparently is healthy again. We'll see I guess. 

Luckily Burns, Abbott and Singer have been enough of a backbone so far, and the bullpen's pretty excellent all-around, save for Tony Santillan's post-2025 hangover. But then behind that, most of the lineup isn't doing anything. Sal Stewart was great in April but quiet now. Friedl's not hitting, and neither is Will Benson, meaning a surprise J.J. Bleday comeback has been lifting the outfield. Stephenson's once again struggling, and without Trevvy he's all they've got. At the very least the initial Reds backbone is re-emerging, as Spencer Steer's hitting .263 with 7 homers and 17 RBIs, and Matt McLain's suddenly taking off with 5 homers and 19 RBIs.

And then there's Elly de la Cruz, still one of the most exciting players in the game. He's flirting with .300, got 10 homers and 30 RBIs, already stole 9 bases, has as many as 15 hits more than any other Red, and lives for every moment in the spotlight. Elly is like what would happen if Jazz Chisholm could back up his swagger with results. I knew the team would ultimately be built around this guy, and he's very much worth it, with an .884 OPS already. He looks like he's on track for another strong season, and hopefully this can lift the Reds.

As flawed as the Reds are right now, the injury overhead gives them the potential to bounce back eventually. The division's designed for these sorts of ebbs and flows, and the Reds have too much strength to really stay a lower-level competitor this year. I look forward to seeing what this team looks like in another few weeks, and how that compares to the rest of the division. 

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who's pitched everywhere since leaving Cleveland, and now finally seems to have regained his mojo. 

The Thrill of the Chase

 

So, we find the Reds rotation in its current incarnation, with Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo injured, Andrew Abbott not injured but looking really rough, Brandon Williamson and Rhett Lowder not injured and doing well, Chase Burns looking even better than he did as a call-up last year, and Brady Singer...just waiting til someone notices he's still here. It's not what everyone expected it to look like, but it seems to be working.

The fundamental issue with these Reds rotations is always going to be that because the four main arms throw as hard as they do, it's very unlikely for them all to be healthy together for a consistent period. It's what doomed the 2010s Mets, and it would have doomed the 2025 Dodgers had they not been unstoppable. I would love to see a version of this team that had Greene, Lodolo, Lowder and Burns all together, healthy and good, but the throwing regimens demand that we only get them for a certain amount of time before they need to sit for a couple months. 

Regardless, the version we've got now seems fine. Chase Burns is the current standout, he's 2-1 with 30 Ks in his first 5 starts, looking very MLB ready. Rhett Lowder's pretty good too, he's the most dominant guy they have, even if he hasn't struck as many guys out as Burns. Williamson looks decent, he's probably a better bet for consistency than the other two, though Abbott may just be having a rough April. And luckily the Reds' bullpen is the best it's been in years, with Graham Ashcraft, Tony Santillan, Pierce Johnson, Sam Moll, Connor Phillips and Brock Burke all in excellent shape. A shame about Emilio Pagan's blown saves, though...he has a tendency to do that. 

And then to back them up you have Sal Stewart and Elly de la Cruz off to terrific starts, both with 8 homers, and Sal with 24 RBIs already. Elly excelling is no surprise, and he may finally be chasing that MVP, but Stewart is not only MLB ready, he's already one of the most intimidating sluggers in the game. Already a slam dunk at first base. The sad detail is that it's really only them who are hitting right now. Lot of guys flirting with .200 or looking for their first homer or trying to match up. Steer, Friedl, Stephenson and McLain represent the backbone of this team and they're all giving absolutely nothing. Suarez is trying but he's only hit 3 homers so far. 

I sincerely hope the Reds can capitalize more on this great pitching year by bringing forth a full lineup effort, because right now it's just 2 guys doing all the work, and that's not sustainable. You can't waste great seasons by Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder, cause who knows how long it'll be until their arms let them have other ones.

Coming Tonight: He got out of Washington right when his new team was about to shock the division.

Worth the Extra Week?

 
Last week I wrote about the Pirates' at-the-time puzzling decision to hold Konnor Griffin back, despite the fact that everyone knew he wouldn't spend the whole season in Indianapolis. And I pointed to all the immediate successes of rookies and Opening Day call-ups. Then this week it became clear that the Pirates' infield options, Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo, weren't gonna cut it, and seeing as Griffin was ready and hitting well in Triple-A, they decided to just quit loafing about and promote the guy. Plus a surprise mega extension contract, which...I assume has made Paul Skenes feel great about himself.

And honestly? Part of me gets why they did this. Especially now that, even in that first week of major league play, a lot can happen.

First of all, from a promotional standpoint, bringing out Konnor Griffin in time for the home opener in Pittsburgh is a smart move. Attendance is already dwindling, that should rope people in for now. It also helps that the Pirates are actually winning games, and swiped some close matches from the Mets and Reds. You could make the case of 'well, with all the games we can win, we don't need the help', and that case makes no sense considering the comparison between two replacement level options and Griffin's potential numbers. It also sets up a continued April swell from a team who are slowly bringing on crucial pieces [and also Marcell Ozuna].

But...even in the case of an early, Opening Day call-up, something ridiculous could happen. A couple years ago Ke'Bryan Hayes got hurt almost immediately as the season began, and I believe it happened to Oneil Cruz as well. Logan O'Hoppe had a fantastic rookie campaign going a few years back only to be sidelined midway through April. And this week, Chase de Lauter's wonderful rookie campaign in Cleveland was tripped up by a foot injury. He's hit 4 homers in 6 games, been the hero in most of them, and now he's being moved to DH for the time being to not exacerbate the foot. 

It's also happened many times that someone has been called up as a sure bet and struggled at the MLB level. Remember Jackson Holliday's 2024 call-up, and how long it took him to figure out the majors, even resulting in a ride back to Norfolk and a ton of stories saying 'he's washed, there's no point, trade him for Tarik Skubal.' And last year he figured it out. Already this year, we've seen the Brewers call up Jeferson Quero then immediately send him down, the Marlins call up Deyvison de los Santos and demote him after hitting a hefty double, and the Mariners keep optioning Ryan Bliss. Some guys just aren't ready even when it looks like they are, or they simply just don't factor into the team's overall plan.

But at the same time, there's also the kinds of guys who come up and make you question why you even doubted them. Sal Stewart for Cincinnati is one of those guys. Last year they called him up for a stretch run, dude had 18 games and he made 'em count, hitting .255 with 5 homers and 8 RBIs. This year he got 1st base straight away, and he's been incredible, hitting .474 with 9 hits and 2 homers in 7 games. People had been calling Stewart a surefire success, and sure enough he feels like the kind of consistent, reliable contact hitter that the Reds had been missing after Joey Votto's retirement. Even in a crowded division, Stewart have given the Reds another crucial piece to get them closer to a perennial playoff experience. 

Konnor Griffin could be that guy for the Pirates. I think they're prepared for either outcome, either he's a Skenes type and it's perfect immediately or he's a Henry Davis type and he's gotta figure himself out for a bit before the magic happens. Still, the sky's the limit at this point.

Coming Tomorrow- I think my skin cleared up a bit in a season without this guy being good at baseball. Oh well, right?

On the Verge [Once Again]

 
It's weird that one of the themes of the 2020s in general have been 'the Marlins and Reds are good enough to contend but not good enough to ever do anything', but here we are. 

That's why I think the first year of this decade having an expanded playoff field was absolutely wild, because in a sense it illuminated not only the passing fads of the time [the White Sox, Ross Cubs and the A's], but it revealed the sort of teams that could be something if it were 18 teams every year. Of course, that year, both the Reds and Marlins made it, and if you'll recall the Marlins actually beat the Cubs in a playoff series, eventually getting swept by the Braves because how can you not?? Since then, both teams have flirted with long-term success, with the 2023 Marlins making a Wild Card series but getting embarrassed by the Phillies, and last year's Reds getting immediately bounced by the Dodgers. 

But both teams have regularly been in playoff conversations. The Reds have the angle of 'they're in a tough division but look at what they have'. Any playoff push that involves Elly de la Cruz and Hunter Greene is gonna get eyes on it, and last year with help from Ke'Bryan Hayes, Zack Littell and Miguel Andujar, they were right there with the other wild card hopefuls. You can also see them continuing to build a long term competitor, calling up Sal Stewart late last year and banking on both Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns for crucial 2026 roles, plus the addition of Eugenio Suarez back in the heart of that lineup. Yet, again, thanks to the Brewers and Cubs they are a borderline playoff team, and this is a year where they might have to work extra hard to keep the Pirates at bay. 

The Marlins have been competitive less frequently, but when it does happen it's always a fun burst of energy. Last year the team was a late wild card spoiler that failed to fully materialize, and as a result the team lost Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers, Dane Myers, Eric Wagaman and Troy Johnston. The joy of this team is there's a ton of young options that can pop right up and take over, and Owen Caissie, Heriberto Hernandez and Graham Pauley are all in play for crucial positions. The core of the team is still a sneakily effective young mix of former organizational castoffs, including Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards, Kyle Stowers, Jakob Marsee and Agustin Ramirez. Griffin Conine, Connor Norby and Eury Perez are eyeing full breakout seasons. Even in a division as tough as the NL East, you can never completely count out the Marlins, and even if it requires less-than-dignified means, the Marlins can power their way through some insane wins.

Not that it'll be easy for either team. The Reds will begin the season without Hunter Greene, and the Marlins just lost Kyle Stowers for a few weeks. But the fact that we're talking about this possibility at all means it hasn't been completely counted out. The Mets could bottom out again in August, as could the Cubs. Both the Reds and the Marlins can take advantage of a lull, and make it their own. It'll be interesting to see if this can happen for either, or both, this year.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Reds

 

Ever since that 2020 squad made it to an extended playoff picture, the Reds have been desperately trying to relegitimize themselves. This year they put Terry Francona in the driver's seat, made some very smooth moves in free agency and trading, and put together a very nice, if scrappy, mid-tier competitor. Now, I will say that if Hunter Greene had made it the whole season, they may have won enough games to not have to play the Dodgers in the wild card round, but as is, they were completely embarrassed. The Reds were engineered to win close games, and the Dodgers didn't give them any.

That doesn't mean that they're a bad team, it just means that this time around they were outmatched. Maybe a tad underdeveloped. Maybe a few healthy pieces from greatness. But this team was able to make Elly de la Cruz, Andrew Abbott, T.J. Friedl and, yes, Hunter Greene into guys playoff teams had to manage around. And it's only the beginning, because you can see Chase Petty and Sal Stewart coming up the pipe. Plus, Rhett Lowder could be back soon.

Tyler Stephenson is in a somewhat awkward position though, as one of the few pieces of the last rebuild effort in Cincinnati. Stephenson was a great hitting catcher in concept but has mellowed into a very okay everyday player, with middling defense and underwhelming power numbers. This year he hit .231 with 13 homers and 50 RBIs in an injury-shortened 88-game season. 

2026 Prediction: A healthy improvement, just in time for free agency in 2027.

Gavin Lux getting traded to Cincinnati was the Dodgers admitting that they have more faith in their ability to buy a great team than their ability to draft one these days. Between Lux, Dustin May, Hunter Feduccia, Michael Grove...it just hasn't been happening lately. So Lux got dealt to the Reds, and he primarily played a DH role, mostly because his defense has been atrocious. In 140 games, Lux hit .269 with 5 homers and 53 RBIs, meaning he's a decent contact bat without a ton of punch.

2026 Prediction: Lux is one of those 'oh who even knows' types because he'll either underwhelm or get injured. I say he does a little better than 2025 but the Reds are very quickly gonna get tired of him.

Nick Martinez has one of the surest gigs in Cincinnati, because all he has to do is sit there and wait for Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene or Brandon Williamson to get hurt and then he does a nice job. Martinez was alright as a long reliever and depth guy, but unsurprisingly he also got 26 starts this year, going 10-10 with a 4.72 ERA yet a 1.248 WHIP and 106 Ks. Martinez, if nothing else, is sturdy, reliable and trustworthy. He fits into whatever role you've got and does what he can. Martinez also ensured that every Reds starter, of the core five, had a WAR higher than 2.2. Considering how many of these guys used to only be around for 10 starts, that's a good change of pace.

2026 Prediction: With the Reds supposedly moving on, and considering they have Burns, Lowder and probably Williamson backing up the core four, they have a right to, Martinez will find a mid-rotation job with a non-competitive team. Then maybe somebody cool trades for him at the deadline. Padres reunion perhaps?

Austin Hays, curiously I might add, didn't do as well in Philadelphia as he did in the laid back, homey southern tip of Baltimore. Also curiously he seemed to improve upon getting to play in Cincinnati. Very curious. I'm not gonna go into detail about my grievances against Hays, but suffice to say I think him getting to wear red this year was a bit on-the-nose. Anyway, Hays did well in a starting role in the Reds outfield, hitting .266 with 15 homers and 64 RBIs, plus some excellent defense, in 108 games. The injuries limited him, but it was a definite improvement for Hays.

2026 Prediction: Lol watch him sign with the Rays. Probably does okay somewhere. 

Will Benson was relegated to 'depth OF' position after an underwhelming 2024, and didn't make the team til midyear. This may have been the trick with Benson, as deployed in a bench OF/extra man sort of role he was way better, with 12 homers and 41 RBIs in 90 games. 

2026 Prediction: I think he's figured it out, he'll be even better in the first half and will play an elevated role in the stretch.

Tony Santillan, like a lot of Reds relief pieces admittedly, is terrific when he's healthy but will miss enough time to make you forget that. He was healthy all year this year, and appeared in 80 games with a 2.44 ERA, a 3.0 WAR and 75 Ks. It was the best season, and fullest season, of Santillan's career, and it was one the Reds had been waiting for for a while. 

2026 Prediction: Ow..

The Reds' main ninth inning option, in lieu of Alexis Diaz falling apart, was Emilio Pagan, the former Rays and Padres relief specialist who most recently figured his shit out with Minnesota. Pagan was not a perfect closer, and notoriously made things hairy in a few games against the Brewers, but still finished the year with a 2.88 ERA, 81 Ks and 32 saves. It was enough to ensure the Reds would keep him on long-term.

2026 Prediction: Not sure if he keeps the ninth all year but he'll be worth the cash I think.

Chase Burns, a HUGE organizational piece for the Reds, was given some midyear MLB starting opportunities. Usually that means the major league starters are all going down, but honestly this was a more natural and expected development than usual, despite Burns struggling to keep the job. In 13 games, Burns had a 4.57 ERA, despite a welcome 67 Ks. 

2026 Prediction: Well, ideally the Reds won't really need Burns for a while, but...if the opportunity presents itself, he'll be way better, and take a big role in a postseason run.

One of the smartest things the Reds did at the deadline was bringing on Ke'Bryan Hayes, on his way to a gold glove. Hayes continued to be one of the best defensive infielders in the game, despite not being especially helpful at the plate, hitting .234 with 3 homers and 13 RBIs in 52 games. So they platooned him with either Miguel Andujar or Noelvi Marte mostly.

2026 Prediction: At some point this season, Ke'Bryan Hayes is going to start hitting, and people will be too shocked about it.

And then to relieve Burns, and honestly Martinez, of starting duties, the Reds traded for Zack Littell, who'd been great in Tampa this year. Littell continued the strong work in Cincinnati, going 2-0 with a 4.39 ERA and 42 Ks in 10 starts. Unfortunately he was responsible for the loss in Game 2 of the wild card series.

2026 Prediction: The Rays want to bring him back, and I say they do so, but only for a year. And it goes alright.

Coming Friday: I'm giving you all Xmas off, and then on friday you get the baseball version of coal in your stockings, some extra Rockies.

Wild Card Series' Day 2: So It's Gonna Be One of Those

 

I'm honestly happy the wild card series' aren't gonna be simple this year [for the most part]. Better for baseball. 

The key for the Tigers was getting the Skubal game down. Cause that was the only game where they really had a leg up on Cleveland. Casey Mize is good, but he's not Skubal good, and the contact game came raining down on him today, including big moments from Brayan Rocchio and George Valera, plus a very impressive three-run bomb from Bo Naylor, hoping to meet his brother in the ALDS. Tanner Bibee wasn't too bad either, only allowing 1 run and 5 hits in 4 and 2/3rds innings. This was the exact kind of game the Guardians should have won, and it allows for an even more exciting Game 3. Flaherty v. Cantillo. That'll definitely be interesting. 

Okay, so clearly the heroes of the Padres game were people like Dylan Cease and Manny Machado, but ultimately this game will be known as the Mason Miller game. He came in, faced five batters and struck out every last one, turning a lead into a commanding lead. The Cubs are a very tough team, and for this Padres squad to silence them, including a rare spotless inning from Robert Suarez, means that the Cubs may not have the cakewalk they were thinking this'd be. The Padres' lineup can strike back, and this game 3 is gonna be a matchup between Yu Darvish and Jameson Taillon. Yes, Yu has been shaky this year, but he's also clicked into place when the Padres have needed him. And is Jamo an October weapon? I suppose we'll find out.

This Yankee win was such a relief. I was so worried that the score staying tied would indicate an inability to capitalize on big moments, but then it dawned on me that all the Red Sox runs were scored by Trevor Story. The Yankees win belonged the whole team, from Ben Rice and his 1st inning bomb to Carlos Rodon and his strong start to Austin Wells who had the big RBI to Jazz Chisholm whose slide cemented the win. And the relief pitching, including Fernando Cruz and David Bednar, got us out of a lot of tight scrapes. No matter what happens next, and considering the lack of Boston rotation depth I'm mildly optimistic, we were able to win a game like this and make this a 3-game series after all. I'd really like it if we won tomorrow, but not getting swept is a true plus. 

If any of these wild card series' was only gonna last 2 games, it was gonna be Dodgers-Reds. Yes, the Dodgers have had bullpen issues...but they're the Dodgers. They're gonna win big.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, in just his second season, has become a postseason icon for the Dodgers, tonight went 6 and 2/3rds innings, and struck out 9, only allowing 2 runs and 4 hits. You NEED a rock like that in the postseason, and so far the Dodgers have had two of 'em starting games, Yoshi and Snell. We haven't even gotten to Glasnow yet. The offense did their thing, with some hard work from typical October heroes Kiké Hernandez and Mookie Betts. The key was small-balling past the Reds' pitching rather than going full power, and it's proof that there's still variety in this lineup. 

The Dodgers will head to Philly as the underdogs, though not by much. This is still a very tough team, and the Phillies aren't without flaws of their own. The Dodgers could find their October magic against the Phils...or, alternatively, the Phils could slay the curse of the 1st round bye and ascend to greatness yet again. It's their choice.

And since we've got to eulogize someone here...

Getting to the playoffs alone was a reward in itself for the Reds. They outdid the odds, outfought the Mets and earned October. This Dodgers series was always gonna be a tough hurdle, and it shouldn't encourage them from trying again next year. Unfortunately the only Red to truly show up tonight was rookie Sal Stewart, who singled in 2 runs early, the only crack in Yoshi's armor all night basically, then tried to get things going in the 8th with another RBI. Everybody else was silenced, and even Zack Littell struggled against a truly tough lineup. They should be happy to have made it, and shouldn't beat themselves up for not outdoing the Dodgers in LA in October. 

Tomorrow we break three ties. Pulling for my Yanks but, as it's a tough Boston team IN Fenway...prepared for either outcome. 

Hanging By a Red

 

It might not happen. It's not completely guaranteed to happen. But the possibility still exists that, if things go a certain way, it could.

The Mets play the Marlins this weekend, the Reds play the Brewers. Both the Mets and the Reds are after one wild card spot. Obviously the Reds have the tougher series, as the Brewers are essentially playing for a 1 seed. The Mets do have the leverage over Miami, but have to contend with A.) some inexperienced starters and B.) just how volatile the Marlins can be as a spoiler. So there is a chance that the Reds can stay at a decent pace, or sweep the Brewers, and just wait for the Mets to fall over. The Mets have the spot right now but only by a game, and the Reds own the tiebreaker.

Again...it's unlikely. But there's enough of a chance that the Reds aren't going to start fighting.

How else do you explain Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo having the starts of their lives this week, with the latter throwing until he literally could throw no longer? How else do you explain how Elly de la Cruz went 2 months without a homer and now is hitting them way more consistently? How else do you explain how this Reds team was able to sweep the Cubs while the Cubs were closing in on the first wild card spot? They want it. They want it very badly.

You can make the argument that the Reds still don't have the team, and that so many of the pieces that looked near ready in 2023 have taken major steps back, and that is valid. Spencer Steer has yet to completely follow up with his monster 2023, and even if he's been decent, with 21 homers and 73 RBIs this year, he's not hitting as consistently as he used to. Matt McLain is similar, as the defensive numbers are great but he's still only a .220 hitter. Even Ke'Bryan Hayes, as crafty as he is, isn't the five-tool player that was advertised. But I see a team that's succeeded where many others have failed, especially in its pitching. Abbott, Greene, Singer, Lodolo, Burns, Littell and Martinez have all been fantastic this year, and they haven't needed to break into as many failsafes as usual. That is a serious difference-maker, and it's kept the Reds in the race all summer basically. 

I do worry about how well this team could do if they do make it in, especially from an offensive standpoint, but it's also the kind of team that could catch fire and surprise people if given the opportunity. And it's not like anyone WOULDN'T want to see a surprise Reds team become a playoff favorite this year. They all love underdogs. 

So yeah...the odds do say the Mets finish it off, but I'm secretly hoping the Reds can surprise people and make the leap. It'd be good for baseball, and as someone who doesn't even dislike the Mets...it'd be pretty funny.

Coming Tonight: A catcher for a team that technically also has a chance at October. It's dwindling by the day but it is still there.

Not Enough Time

 

The Reds have seen this before. The last two years in fact. The NL Wild Card race solidifying, the players taking their spots, and the Reds looking up at the nearest one with way too much track to cover to make it happen. The Reds are 4 games behind the Mets, with the same record as the very hot Giants, and trailed by the D-Backs and Cardinals. The Mets losing last night helped them a little. But the Reds are still sifting through a really tough stretch, and have to play the Padres this week. They already dropped 2 to the Mets, and got obliterated by the Dodgers, D-Backs and Cardinals in previous weeks. There's a chance something can get done, but it's flickering.

If it doesn't happen, it's a waste of the best year this young Reds rotation has had yet. Hunter Greene, when healthy, has been absolutely untouchable, and has a 2.59 ERA in 16 starts, capped off by a terrific start against the Mets the other night. Andrew Abbott's all-star season has dipped a bit since the break, but he's still 8-6 with a 2.88 ERA and leads the team in WAR with 4.8. Brady Singer actually leads the team in strikeouts with 145, and has used a fairly strong August to drop his ERA below 4, with a 13-9 record. Nick Lodolo missed time but has produced his best season yet, with a 3.22 ERA and 130 Ks. Nick Martinez, despite some losses, has still shown dominance, and leads the team in IP. And Zack Littell has been a steady fifth, clearly favored due to getting to keep his job over Martinez.

It's all gonna be a waste if this team can't hit their way out of the scrum. Getting Ke'Bryan Hayes and Miguel Andujar has helped, but more was expected from Tyler Stephenson, Austin Hays, Gavin Lux and Jose Trevino, and they've all been 'fine' when they could be really helping this team. Stephenson keeps flirting with greatness but will get hurt at inopportune times or just fail to show up. Elly de la Cruz had a great start that has been bogged down with a lot of missed opportunities. McLain and Steer have once again failed to deliver on what seemed so promising in 2023. 

And yes, Miguel Andujar coming over and hitting .362 is a very good thing. You got this guy to be a bench menace, that's absolutely what he's done. He's the only guy on this team with an OPS over 1.000, and that's mostly because he's new. I really wish Andujar was the well-rounded hitter he was in 2018, but he works as a bench bat, DH and power upgrade. But you shouldn't be putting so much on upgrades. The core of de la Cruz, Steer, Friedl and McLain should have worked, and it...sort of hasn't entirely. 

I really want the Reds to make it happen this year, but so many opportunities have been blown, and so many interlopers have taken advantage. There is still a chance, but it's gonna take conscious effort and some offensive blowouts to really capitalize on this. Next year this rotation might all be hurt once again. You can't waste this.

Coming Tonight: He came over from Arizona to join the team that cost him a ring. At this rate, there's a chance he fights for that ring after all.

Noelvi, No Problem

 

After half of a season of plugging people in at corner positions and getting absolutely nothing from them, the Cincinnati Reds finally have the opposite problem, platooning three of the hottest-hitting third basemen in baseball. Noelvi Marte and Miguel Andujar are trading off at third while each hitting .300+ as a Red, under Ke'Bryan Hayes who isn't doing too badly there either. While Jeimer Candelario sits on his couch and shakes his head.

Noelvi Marte getting to finish this season as an above-average 3B option is an inexplicable but welcome development. For a while he was either refusing to hit at the major league level or getting himself suspended the exact moment he started hitting. Him and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were switching off infuriating the Reds' fanbase for a while, and so soon after Nick Senzel flamed out. His first half was actually an improvement, one that I think a lot of people, including myself, were hesitant to embrace because of the PED suspension. But...Marte's hitting .306 this year, with 10 homers and 40 RBIs in 58 games. I think Fernando Tatis has taught us that PED suspensions don't mean as much anymore if the player is willing to put in the work to erase it. Marte, like another baseball Marte, seems to be doing that. I think Ke'Bryan Hayes might be 3B1 right now, 

It couldn't come at a better time for the Reds, who've had some excellent wins recently against teams like the Phillies, Angels and, most notably, the Brewers. That Brewers series was an all-out war, with some games being decided by the Reds' bullpen mucking it up, or by an errant Brewers bench guy. The starting pitching was never an issue for these guys, though, as Abbott, Greene, Singer, Martinez and Littell have all looked great recently. Greene came back off the IL and has been dominant in both starts back, including a gem against Philly. Andrew Abbott looked awesome against the Brewers last week, and continues to put up Cy Young quality numbers. And Zack Littell has continued his strong year since coming over from Tampa, with a 3.06 ERA in 3 starts. The bullpen seems to be healing, as I think the key is just keeping Joe La Sorsa the hell out of there. Considering how quick the Reds were to get rid of Jake Fraley it's concerning they keep letting La Sorsa out. Then again, I'm a Phils fan and can't see why Jordan Romano's still employed. 

The Reds are barely outside of a wild card spot. Their main competitor is the Mets, who've fallen very far and are only a half game ahead of them. This weekend the Reds play the Diamondbacks, then next week they play the Dodgers, who are also falling. This is insanely doable, as it has been the last couple years. All that remains is for the Reds to stay out of their own way. Can it be done this year?

Coming Tonight: Every year for the past five years he's been literally inconsolable in April or May yet by the end of the season he's one of the most integral hitters on the team. The Rangers must be used to this by now.

Ahead of the Curve

 

In theory, the Reds have a pretty straight shot to a playoff spot for the first time in 5 years. The nearest wild card spot is currently owned by the Mets, who are dropping like a stone. The Reds, with today's win, are 1.5 games behind them, and are trending upward. They're far enough ahead of the competition that they remain a major player in the wild card race, and with the return of Hunter Greene this week they'll have a stronger rotation and a more confident outlook heading into the home stretch.

However. This weekend, a series against the Pirates should have been a lay-up for this team. Yet they still managed to lose two games, and nearly lost today's thanks to some misplays by the infield. They're heading into series' against the Phillies and Brewers, two of the best teams in the NL. The Reds have been competitive the last two seasons yet haven't made the playoffs under this new regime, and now with Terry Francona at the helm they're getting even closer. If they miss now they'll never recover.

Without Greene, they've been decent but not terrible. Chase Burns has decidedly come into his own as a starting weapon, with 57 Ks over his first 8 starts. Nick Martinez and Brady Singer have had nice starts in fill-in roles. And in lieu of Greene's, and Lodolo's, absence, Andrew Abbott has been a very nice ace, going 8-2 in 20 starts, with a 2.34 ERA and 99 Ks. Abbott's consistency has been one of the reasons why the Reds have persisted in the wild card race all season, and adding Greene, and honestly Zack Littell who was really sharp in an initial Reds start, only cements their case.

But some issues still persist. Ke'Bryan Hayes was added to be an upgrade at third, and he hasn't been hitting. Matt McLain, as decent as he's been lately, made a major error earlier today. The ultimate reality is that this team just isn't terrific on defense, and a lot of the team's best hitters, Elly included, are prone to the occasional awkward moment in the field. And right now they're not good enough at the power game to really withstand their own mediocrity in the field. Having Austin Hays, Spencer Steer and Ke'Bryan Hayes out there can only do so much.

Right now, the Reds are a good team trying desperately to be a great team. If they can figure it out in a month, they're a playoff team. If not, it's another year of figuring out how to prevent this when the opportunity arises next year. 

Coming Tomorrow- Kinda odd that there are people other than Mike Trout that have persisted for the Angels but he's one of the longer-tenured ones.

Proud to be Non-Contingent

 

For two straight seasons, the Cincinnati Reds would begin with a great looking rotation and end the year exhaustedly rifling through double-A guys with no business being up. Last year it got to a point where even the prospects were getting injured. Both Rhett Lowder and Julian Aguiar were injured for the majority of this season thanks to overexertion during the 2024 season. To be fair, 2025 was getting hairy for a while as well, two different Louisville pitchers named Chase were called upon, and only one has really stuck around, but...thankfully the Reds have landed on a working model of five pitchers without going too far into the basement.

I'm just taking a moment to emphasize what a concept that is. The Reds actually have some really great pitchers staying healthy and starting games for them, and haven't had to resort to minor leaguers, swingmen and Carson Spiers. Or...at least not anymore.

The Reds, right now, have gotten consistent, admirable work out of Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer and Nick Martinez. Chase Burns is getting there very slowly. I think he needed a season of learning curve, and eventually he and Lowder will be running the show around here, but at the very least he's not getting killed as badly as the Boston start anymore. Lodolo, who's made 20 starts [rare for him], has been having a very nice year, with a 3.33 ERA, 7 wins and a club-leading 106 Ks. I suppose he leads the team in strikeouts because Hunter Greene has missed starts, but it's still a very good thing. Lodolo's another one of those guys who's taken years to stay healthy, and the Reds are finally able to enjoy his material. Abbott has also been fantastic this year, going 8-1 with a 2.07 ERA in 16 starts. With the exception of Burns, none of these starters have especially high ERAs, and they're all just...making starts and getting wins. It's simple enough that when Greene comes back, he'll slide right into Burns's spot, hopefully the rest will have kept going, and they can roll towards the wild card race.

I'm kind of surprised by how many strong pieces have formed in Cincinnati this year. Not just the crucial, building block guys like de la Cruz, Friedl and Abbott, but veterans who have been very helpful, like Austin Hays, Gavin Lux and Jose Trevino. I'm still worried that Steer and McLain's fluke seasons lined up in 2023, but there's still a chance these guys can mellow back into usefulness. They're at least hitting alright, I suppose. 

Even in their imperfections, the Reds have enough energy and momentum that they can't be completely counted out of the NL Central race. And this pitching staff actually working this year is a major plus in their favor. So the possibility that this iteration of the Reds is the one that finally breaks into a playoff spot persists.

Coming Tonight: One of the most feared sluggers of the early part of the decade. Like his team, he's seriously calmed down in recent years. 

CINconsistency

 

The NL Central has the energy of a frigging abacus. The top and the bottom team stays the same, but the ones in the middle keep flailing about in all directions. The Cardinals, Reds and Brewers have all ebbed and flowed frequently this season, with all three bouncing around the middle positions. It is equal parts impressive and infuriating. This weekend the Cardinals and Reds played each other, and as you might expect it was relatively even. The Cards took two, then the Reds responded with a gem courtesy of Andrew Abbott, who just has to stay healthy and maybe will soak up some of Paul Skenes's Cy Young votes. 

In a division of sporadic teams, the Reds might be the most sporadic thought. They will follow a stretch where they look unbeatable with a stretch where they lose 4 and head to fourth place. A lot like the Twins, but on a much smaller scale, the Reds will never let something impressive go without an immediate drawback. Just look at Elly de la Cruz, who has 17 homers, 21 steals and 52 RBIs yet strikes out far too much to be taken seriously as an MVP candidate. Clearly de la Cruz is the face of this team, but he's not as immaculate as prime Acuña. He's got flaws, like so many other players, and only so many big games can mask that. 

This team also just has so many players who will get off to a great start and immediately get hurt. Every year. Once again, Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft are missing time, as is Brandon Williamson. At the very least, the Reds have prepared a little more so they're not completely without backup plans as starters start going down, but so far Carson Spiers, Chase Petty and Wade Miley have failed as the fifth option. Meaning they have to go with mega-prospect Chase Burns in a forthcoming start against the Yankees. If it works, they've got a 5th option that works, one that looks MLB-ready. But again, there's so many options that didn't, and even more like Williamson, Julian Aguiar and Rhett Lowder, who weren't even healthy enough to factor into this season to begin with. You think they've finally happened upon a working formula and then even that sinks. So I'm counting on Burns to at least add some stability, because if not then I'll just choose to believe that this rotation is cursed.

Something that's been frustrating me about this team has been how many trusted starters are not being trusted at their own positions anymore. The Reds are afraid to play Gavin Lux at second, they're afraid to start Tyler Stephenson at catcher, and they're still not sure about where they're supposed to play McLain or Steer. This is not a great defensive team, and only Steer is a true above-average fielder right now. And even then you have defensive subs, like Santiago Espinal and Will Benson, that aren't very good either. 

I'm trying to give this team the benefit of the doubt, but the same factors are failing them, even with Francona's help. Unless something turns around we're gonna be cycling through this several more times and no one will be any wiser.

Coming Tonight: Arguably a future Hall of Famer, and someone who may have an impact on the big picture of this season before he knows it. 

May 2025 in Review [ft. T.J. Friedl]

 

What a month May was. Went to two games, and combined to the one I just got back from, I'm 3-0 rooting for the home team [those expecting a writeup of said earlier Orioles game will be saddened to learn that I spent most of the game in a suite drinking with a wedding party and only occasionally watched the game, and when I did I'd have sworn there were two men in the batters' box at the same time]. A bunch of divisions saw new leads, new competitors and new mayhem. Acuna and Trout came back, a bunch more got hurt. Such is life. And now we recap, as per usual.

First here are the results of those 5 predictions for May I made last month:

1. One guy who's been terrible in April gets insanely hot and commands the narrative again. Chris Sale and Rafael Devers fall into this category, both had tough Aprils but figured things out this month.

2. Conversely, a team we've seen April success from goes embarrassingly cold. Again, a couple teams qualify. The Mets? The A's? EMBARRASSINGLY cold harkens back to the Rangers, or even the Red Sox.

3. Either another 4-homer game or a genuine no-hitter happens. Nope and nope.

4. A lot of usual Cy Young hopefuls are either hurt or slumping. Either a typical name goes on a tear or a new name enters the fold and makes the case for elite status. Tarik Skubal is having a season that's on par with, if not better than, his 2024 season. Zack Wheeler is off and rolling again, as is Sale. 

5. Something incredible happens at the Pirates-Phillies game I am going to mid-month. Nothing 'incredible'. Good things, yes. Very good pitching from Zack Wheeler. But nothing incredible. 

So, off of that, here are 5 things from May 2025 that no one could have predicted:

1. The Mets weren't gonna stay in first forever. Right now, thanks to a rough weekend for the Phils and a...Rockies series for the Mets [and you're CERTAIN they don't make these schedules like this on purpose?], the Mets have reclaimed the division. But for most of the month it did not look like that. The Phils were surging, with the whole rotation doing well [even Taijuan Walker, now being replaced by Mick Abel apparently], and the whole lineup showing up. Then one Harper injury later things started falling apart. But the Mets, ever since the Yankees series, have been losing even more ground, and blowing some crucial games to the Pirates and Red Sox. But they've battled back in the last week, winning close matchups against the Dodgers, and the aforementioned Rockies series put them back on top. What we've established this month, however, is that it's gonna be one close race for the remainder of the season.

2. Three interim managers by June 1st?? Compared to last season, when nobody really last their job til later on, this was a bloodbath, and one such case, Brandon Hyde, didn't really deserve it. But now the O's are without the manager that arguably brought the team back to 1st, the Pirates are without the manager that...did his best despite Bob Nutting's misgivings, and the Rockies are without the manager that, despite his strengths, got them off to the start they did. Now all three will try and limp to the end with the second in command. I thought one or two could have legged it out another month, but I'm not an owner.

3. The AL Central is now more deadlocked than the NL West. Four teams have 31 wins or more. Two of those teams, the Royals and Twins, have seen tremendous winning streaks this month. And while the Tigers are well ahead now, we now have proof that it won't be easy for them. The Twins won 13 games in a row, in a stretch where two of their biggest stars got injured. The Guardians sped ahead despite losing some crucial games throughout the month. The Royals kept in the race despite losing some big pitching pieces to injuries. The NL West is very close right now, but I can kind of predict how it's gonna go. I'm not there yet with the AL Central.

4. The back half of the Yankee rotation is not, as previously thought, death. Will Warren, barring a shellacking the other night, has figured out MLB hitting instincts, and his K numbers have been very nice, with 69 through 12 starts. Clarke Schmidt got over some struggles and got his ERA back under 4. And look at how Ryan Yarbrough's been doing as a starter again, with 2 wins and a 2.25 ERA through 4 starts. Obviously it'll be cool to get Gil or Stroman or Beeter back eventually, but I'm just relieved we can keep things down.

5. FIFTY LOSSES BY JUNE 1ST, COLORADO??? Obviously we knew they'd be bad, but...FIFTY LOSSES ALREADY? They're hitting .216 as a team, they've got a 5.64 ERA, their best player's a reliever who'll likely be gone by July and their big power guy heading into the season has been demoted after leading the league in strikeouts. This is even more disastrous than the 2024 White Sox somehow.

And on the other hand, 5 things from May 2025 that lots of people could have predicted.

1. Shohei Ohtani does more Shohei Ohtani things. Oh you know, he's on pace to finish the season with more homers than any Dodger, he's still punishing Yankee pitchers like it's his job and he might be on a mound this month. No big deal.

2. Oh hey look the Astros are back guys. There's a chance the Astros challenge 1st this month, as they're a game or so back at the moment, led by Hunter Brown, Isaac Paredes, and too many prospects achieved by sign-stealing, which is the baseball equivalent of casually having a family emerald mine. 

3. The O's without a rotation are gonna lay around for a bit. Again, I caught a win today with Charlie Morton on the mound, and it's mostly because they were playing the White Sox, but there was a while back there, before Eflin got activated, where absolutely nothing got done. You can't be putting Cade Povich, Dean Kremer and a past-his-prime Morton out there everyday and expect the lineup to routinely get out of it. And speaking of Baltimore,

4. The Orioles really shouldn't have traded Kyle Stowers. I think if they still had the Miami God of Clutch Hitting on the team they'd have won a couple more games. Certainly no different with or without Trevor Rogers on the IL there. Stowers is hitting .286, has 10 homers and 32 RBIs, and is the exact kind of power guy the Marlins needed. 

5. Even without consistency, the Reds do have something cooking here. Every week you'll get a different, fun standout. Maybe it's Will Benson, who went on a tear a couple weeks ago. Maybe it's T.J. Friedl, who's been hitting .305 and killing it. Maybe it's Austin Hays, who was doing great before he got hurt again. The Reds, especially with their pitching, have a team you can't exactly rule out, which doesn't bode well for the Cardinals or Cubs.

Now, for my money, here are the 5 Most Valuable Players of May 2025:

1. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

3. Tarik Skubal, Los Angeles Dodgers

4. Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers

5. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

And finally, here are 5 bold predictions for June 2025:

1. Very big comeback from an injury, and it's 100% worth the wait.

2. There were a lot of streaks coming from mid-level competitors in the central divisions this month. In June there'll be a nice streak from a major metro era with a huge competitor.

3. Topps really doesn't have a big selling point for 2025 Update Series yet, and the rookie cutoff date is fastly approaching. I predict one more mega-rookie jumps in, and even if it ends up being Cole Young I'll accept it.

4. Schwarber in June is as big as advertised.

5. The year so far has been dominated, mostly, by the Yankees and Dodgers again. In June, we may see what the real narrative ends up being. [It make take a couple months to verify this].

Well, that's everything from this month. Let's hope the next one is just as fun. 

Hey Nineteen

 

Here's the situation at the moment in the NL Central. The Cubs are firmly in first. The Pirates, now with a new manager, are firmly in last. And in between is a three-team mad dash, where all of the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals are entangled in a full stalemate. All three have a record of 19-19. Firmly at .500, with all in various different directions. The one that has the most to lose, though, is the Reds, who had 2nd to themselves until dropping 6 games since April 30th. They had enough of a head start, and now they've got to make sure a fleabitten-but-strong Brewers team and an inexplicably building Cardinals team don't lap them. 

You can already see the wheels threatening to come off, though. Nick Lodolo got off to an excellent start but caught some bad luck in his last couple appearances. Hunter Greene has been phenomenal but exited yesterday's start with a groin issue. Noelvi Marte and Austin Hays, two of the team's biggest hitters in April, just hit the IL. Elly's slowing, down, Steer and McLain can't hit .200, everything that looked promising even a week or so ago is now looking really rough.

Which is why it's been so refreshing to see Jose Trevino not only lock up a starting catching position in the wake of Tyler Stephenson's move to full time DH, but thrive and belong there. Trevi was a favorite in New York, and while he was more efficient than really explosive, he was capable of great moments and excellent defensive catching. Here he's just as reliable, and he's already hitting .288 with 9 RBIs, 3 homers and a 0.8 WAR. The Reds have so many people with high highs that can also just go cold for a while, so stocking up on really consistent, efficient pieces, like Trevi, Nick Martinez, Austin Wynns and Gavin Lux, did this team well in hindsight. The bullpen has been so successful because of the reliance on efficient, successful arms like Taylor Rogers, Tony Santillan, Emilio Pagan and Graham Ashcraft. Alexis Diaz had consistent moments, but at the end of the day, he is a Diaz brother, and he has a low basement.

The Reds really need to lean into that as we go ahead, because banking everything on high-strikeout guys or high-liability pitchers is gonna end the same way as before. The Reds do still have enough key choices filling rotation spots right now, and are ramping Andrew Abbott up to potentially take on more responsibility if Greene has to miss time, but they need to work this so that they're not on starter number 11 again, or on fill-in replacement infielder number 4. The Reds, like the Orioles honestly, have the pieces in place to compete, and need to get past whatever crap luck has been keeping them from doing so. 

Coming Tomorrow- The league is currently littered with former Padres prospects. You hear about some of the bigger ones, but there's one that even the Padres kind of forgot about that's turned into one of the best closers in baseball.

Night of the Hunter

 

Hunter Greene's career, however it finishes up, is going to be a truly interesting one, one that's very indicative of the pitching trends of the moment. He was the #2 overall pick in 2017, but doesn't make the majors til 2022 due to a mix of injuries and the collapse of the 2020 minor league season. He's always been very good in the majors but has never had a season longer than 26 games due to his continued injury issues. He's gone from a full strikeout artist to a smarter, more thoughtful ace with that same strikeout ability. Even in those three partial seasons, he's still struck out 150 or more. Last season he was on the way to a Cy Young when he got injured yet again. Now he's very healthy, and playing better than he's ever played.

But...even when he's playing well, Hunter Greene gives you that uncertain, worried feeling. Like at any moment he's going to fall apart again. Two starts ago he was unbelievable, going 7 strong with 8 Ks, only allowing 2 hits. His last start was a lot shakier, getting yanked after 3 with 5 earned runs against the Orioles. With every time somebody like Greene gets really lit up, you get worried that an injury is coming soon. And I have Greene on my fantasy team, so I'd really, really like that to not happen. But that's what big game pitching is right now: going all out every start and hoping it doesn't screw you up enough to miss time. 

I think Hunter Greene has to be aware of this, as well as the fact that the majority of his Reds rotation compatriots are of this mindset as well. Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson and Rhett Lowder have all missed time recently. Greene has lost a ton of time that he could have capitalized on already, and like other oft-injured high draft picks, like Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton and Casey Mize, he's trying to fight the perception of him as a 'could have been somebody' guy. 

This said, Greene so far has been excellent, barring that Baltimore start. He's got a 2.35 ERA and 35 Ks, which is fantastic. Andrew Abbott is 2-0 since being activated, with a 1.64 ERA. Nick Lodolo, despite the idea that he's trying not to overexert himself, has been very dominant, with a 2.79 ERA and a 0.966 WHIP. Brady Singer is 4-0, even if statistically he's not as flashy as the others. The bullpen has also taken a great spike upward, with Emilio Pagan taking over for Alexis Diaz in the ninth, Tony Santillan, Taylor Rogers, Brent Suter and surprisingly Graham Ashcraft, taking to his relief role insanely well. That has helped this team, even if, aside from some cheesy bench power, there's not a whole lot going on offensively at the moment. 

I hope Hunter Greene, and the Reds, stay relevant and healthy this year. It's about time something happened on both fronts.

Coming Tonight: One of those guys that seems to simply hit home runs more often, and more casually, than anyone else.

The Reds Rotation, This Time With Depth

 

For two years running the same thing has wounded the Reds. They can get a glut of young, fierce starters together, and have them all be MLB ready, but they can't stay healthy enough to bring the team forward much. And then the depth options go and pretty soon the Reds are flying through starters like paperclips. Julian Aguiar, Carson Spiers, Casey Legumina, eventually Rhett Lowder, all of them thrust into starting roles, perhaps too quickly, due to a lack of healthy options. And unlike some teams, who can lose all their starters and still win a World Series, the Reds are actually set back by this. Y'know, like you're supposed to be.

And so, perhaps even with the presence of Terry Francona adding common sense, the Reds finally have a pitching formula that seems successful. Seriously. Trust me, this one's gonna work.

To refresh, the Reds began the season with a rotation consisting of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, Nick Martinez and Carson Spiers. Not...ideal, to be very honest, and you can tell a few people [Williamson, Lowder, Abbott for a spell] were too injured to start the season with the team. But...that's still five proven starting options...with depth options behind him. Graham Ashcraft began this season in the bullpen [and he's been doing extremely well], but...were something to go wrong, THERE is the depth starter. Same with Brent Suter. That was what Nick Martinez was here for, he's already in the rotation anyhow. The Reds NEEDED guys like this, 'break in case of emergency' guys who could ensure the rotation doesn't drown again. Plus, Andrew Abbott returned yesterday, and did very well against the Pirates, so now the Reds have three depth options with Ashcraft, Suter and Spiers. 

I'm saying this like it's revolutionary but it kind of is for the Reds. Their whole thing is moving forward with their hard-throwing pitchers and being gobsmacked when they get injured. So this change of pace does instill a bit more confidence, especially considering the quality of starting pitching thus far.

Hunter Greene, as he should be, is the standout. So far he's got a 1.31 ERA, 23 Ks and a very low 0.629 WHIP.  This is the kind of material Greene is capable of now that he knows not to fully focus on flame throwing. Nick Lodolo has been similarly on target so far, with a 0.96 ERA despite lower strikeout totals. And Brady Singer, as anyone could have told you upon the India trade, has benefited from a much less cutthroat rotation environment. He's 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA and 18 Ks, and has been consistent without being terribly flashy. I'm glad he's finally in position to do so. 

The Reds themselves still aren't perfect. They had McLain then lost him, and...now that they've lost their best hitter, people besides Elly need to step up and they haven't yet. Gavin Lux, CES, Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario have all been excessively mediocre. Without Alexis Diaz they're surviving on Emilio Pagan, but who knows how long that'll last. But having the rotation in place really helps, and suggests a much better 2025, and a road to competition. A lot more will need to come into line, but for now this will do.

Coming Tonight: The Mariners have farmed a lot of great young pitchers, but he might be their triumph.