Love Him or Hader

 

Remember when Josh Hader to Houston was supposed to be the kingmaker move? The kind of move that would ensure the Astros would stay in the hunt perpetually going forward despite the aging core and the loss of more and more key players? And instead, Hader might actually be one of the few things that have stayed consistent about the Astros since Joe Espada took over? 

The Astros are in second last now. I know people don't like when I do this, but it's very much by default. The A's have completely fallen apart, the Mariners refused to win more than one game in a crucial division series, the Rangers are in first by a thread but just lost Josh Jung. The Astros are under .500, still not entirely a threat, just lost Spencer Arrighetti and expect Peter Lambert and a rehabbing Hunter Brown to do all the work. This is a meritless second place. They won 5 straight and then Munetaka Murakami absolutely embarrassed them, and when the White Sox earn a win more than you, you're fooling a lot of people, including yourself. 

It's not like this is a completely bad team, because Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena represent the absolute best this lineup has to offer. This lineup was a lot better when you actually had George Springer, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Yuli Gurriel draped around them, but Alvarez is headed for MVP votes and Pena had a 2-homer day today, representing 2 of the 3 runs the Astros were able to score. Pena's total is now 11 homers and 30 RBIs in 58 games, very much doing a lot in a small amount of time. Same with Josh Hader, who was activated midyear, he's got 12 saves and a 1.35 ERA in 22 appearances, this is vintage Hader with no real troubles. Definitely a huge addition to a really rough bullpen with a broken Bryan Abreu and a lot of mostly okay performances.

'Broken' is a good word for a lot of these guys. Lance McCullers just got DFA'd by the Brewers because he didn't really have anything left. Cristian Javier has a 9.37 ERA and is struggling mightily. Ronel Blanco's gotten absolutely annihilated in both his starts back. Tatsuya Imai still hasn't fully figured out MLB pitching. Even Mike Burrows somehow couldn't handle pitching for a better team. Even if they keep worming their way up the standings, the lack of sturdy pitching will do the Astros in. Everyone is so tired. So exhausted. EVEN FRAMBER VALDEZ IS FATIGUED OVER IN DETROIT.

The Astros could still persist in the top of the AL West standings, and they may even make a run...but again, it's the case of an Astros team that refuses to realize that they are not capable of meeting the moment. This is not the team, and this is not the year. 

Coming Tomorrow- A future Hall of Famer having a very human season for the first time since his early 20s. 

Swallow This

 

How would you like this to be you. You toil in the majors for too long, struggle with injuries, make it over to a struggling Japanese league team, then do well enough to get an MLB contract with a decent team. Then the best player on your Japanese team comes over here to play for a last place team and then makes them a competitor, all while you're down in 4th. Peter Lambert must be going through it.

And it's not even like the 2025 Yakult Swallows were a bastion of baseball excellence or anything. The whole idea of Munetaka Murakami is a great player can make a bad team watchable, even if he doesn't always make them *good*. Aside from Lambert and Murakami, this team had some okay performances, and Domingo Santana trying his best, but like usual, they didn't compete. So to have them both over here and going in opposite directions is funny, especially considering that for a while they really weren't. The Sox didn't really conquer the AL Central until Murakami got hurt, before then he very much was lifting them. Currently Lambert is very much lifting the Astros, is their wins leader and ranks 4th in WAR. Very much the opposite of what both were after, and I guess one of them is relieved. 

Peter Lambert had instances of greatness with the Rockies, and definitely tried to make the most of pitching in Coors Field, but it just wasn't happening, and he never really broke through after his 2019 rookie season. So Japan happens, he does decently, and now he gets to play for the Astros. Lambert, in 14 games, currently has a 3.26 ERA, a 7-5 record, 74 Ks and a 1.150 WHIP, a very solid line. He is also...the best pitcher on this team right now. I remember when they brought him up I was really hesitant to embrace him, because I thought it was the Jason Alexander thing of 'we're bringing up a minor league also-ran cause he's all we have, now suddenly he's great'. That's always a 'oh screw you, Astros' thing for me, like if you can fix Peter Lambert then something's up. But no, he fixed himself in Japan, then came over here and ran the rotation. That's better honestly. 

The thing is...I don't think the intention was for all of this to be on Lambert. Hunter Brown is back now, he's carrying a little more, still pitching well, but Imai, Burrows, McCullers and Javier have all been disasters this year, and Spencer Arrighetti's beginning to fall apart as well. It's like the Nationals, where they got Foster Griffin to be the fifth man, and now he's kind of the 1st man and...I mean, there's your problem. The infrastructure should work so that someone like Jake Irvin or Josiah Gray or Mitchell Parker is actually up and doing their job and not making this the Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell show. The Astros, we just...ended up here. No disrespect to Lambert, who's making the most of a tough situation, but if he goes down again late in the year cause of the increased workload, it's on the Astros.

The Astros just got Jeremy Pena back, are in third but still under .500, and have to play the Rangers to finish out the first half. I don't think this team is competing this year, and I really hope I don't regret saying that.

Coming Tonight: He missed a few starts, came back stronger than ever and made an all-star team. That sound you hear is Zack Wheeler seething from across the country.

No Change Expected

 

There's an old Twilight Zone episode where a sort of cheesy western cowboy hero gets confronted by the real Jesse James for how he's portrayed on his show, and in the end works out a deal where him and his other western legends can be depicted on his show, but only if they beat the shit out of him. Like, alright, you can include Wild Bill Hicock, but only if he outshoots you and makes you look silly.

That is how I can contextualize the modern Astros. They were not penalized for cheating in the 2017 World Series, but their way of paying the piper is this atrophy. It is going around and playing all the teams they embarrassed to get titles and getting the snot beaten out of them. Obviously the Yanks had fun with them this year, but the A's, Mariners, Royals, Tigers, Dodgers, Orioles and Guardians have already notched big wins against them. They have more Tigers games this weekend, we'll see how that goes.

Honestly, in a year with off-peak Jose Altuve, an outfield of .220 hitters, a down year from Yainer Diaz, the two most crucial offseason pitching acquisitions being duds, Hunter Brown being advised to 'go easy out there', a bloated bullpen and barely any general depth....yeah, this is an expected outcome. I don't know what else to say, this is clearly a lesser team, they're trying everything but it's just not working, especially when the three top teams have actual depth.

There are two Astros lineup pieces that I would allow to see in next month's ASG rosters. Yordan Alvarez, who's close to the top vote-getting spot, and deservingly so because good lord, and Jeremy Pena. Even in limited at-bats, Pena has been excellent this year, hitting .284 with 6 homers and 18 RBIs. The production has been much higher, and Pena himself has just felt more powerful than the old 'some skinny kid starting in Correa's place' we used to see. He's got a .451 SLG this year, closer to Christian Walker and Alvarez than usual. He's mixing his usual contact with more pop, and I think it's a very good combination. 

Other than that, man...I dunno. It's really hard to get excited about a team going with Peter Lambert as a good option. I get it, he spent a year in Japan, redid his whole motion or whatnot, but...I looked at his Yakult stats, and that's a 4.26 ERA with an 11-3 record. It's helped him get back under 4, he's got a 3.28 ERA now, but...I dunno, man. Arrighetti's for real, he's in 2024 form for sure. Hunter Brown's looking decent but, again, now that's he's missed time he's still in danger of missing more. There have been better rotations, much like there have been better lineups. 

So yeah, still very much an underwhelming time in Houston. I know this team has a habit of springing to life and scaring me when I think they're cooked, but...look, even last year's version of this team was better. And they all know it I think.

Coming Tonight: The Giants are hitting a lot more than they did at the beginning of this season. This guy has certainly helped. 

In No Way An Improvement

 Even as someone who dislikes the Astros, I can tell you that the core era of that team subsisted on a well-built youth movement, so many slam dunk prospects, deals made for people in their prime, and a solid backbone that could withstand departures. The 2026 Astros are the result of that era having run its course. And so without the generation that gave us Springer, Bregman, Cole, Valdez, Tucker and Brantley...this is a very okay baseball team. And I think FINALLY...they're done pretending they're not.

Beyond Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker, pretty much everything on this team is run-of-the-mill. If this was 2018, and they had a player of Isaac Paredes's caliber on a tear, it'd be going a lot better than this. Not that Paredes is playing badly, but...he's a .238 hitter with 8 homers and 28 RBIs. And even then, he's here for his power and all his home runs are pulled. They released a spray chart today, and the man's never launched a single opposite-field home run in his entire career. So they have an okay third baseman having an okay season being okay at the thing he's the best at...like, compare that to what Bregman was doing even in a down year. It's not even close. And somebody like Jake Meyers or Zach Dezenzo or Brice Mathews, doing the best they can but still winding up at replacement level...this is the level of local talent they have now. And compared to what Yordan Alvarez is doing, leading the league in homers and OPS and average and fitting firmly into the MVP conversation upton Judge's injury, it's even more pathetic. You can't run on a Jake Meyers season anymore when it's clear that Yordan Alvarez can lift a pinky and go yard.

The pitching isn't much better, because even the usual failsafes aren't working. They tried the 'let's bring up Jason Alexander' gambit again, and that didn't work this time around. Aside from Spencer Arrighetti, who's wonderful, this team has to trot out Mike Burrows and his 5.66 ERA, Tatsuya Imai and his occasional brilliance flanked by 6 run outings, Peter Lambert who's far too okay to be playing this great a role in this team, and Kai-Wei Teng, who's actually pretty decent but is being stretched out from a prior relief role and hopefully can stay healthy. The team's already lost Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers, Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski are gonna be out for longer, and this unit is what they've got. For...what it is I guess it's alright, but this is the most anonymous Astros rotation since Bud Norris and Erik Bedard were the draws. Occasionally it works, but I don't know how sustainable it is, much like how I don't know how sustainable Christian Walker and Christian Vasquez are.

The Astros are firmly under .500, and are in fourth, but they do play the A's this weekend, and the A's rotation might have slightly more weak points. So it might be close. But if things continue at this rate, the Astros might be sellers at the deadline for the first time in nearly a decade, and that's an insane concept to consider.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who's had a monster hitting streak as of late, and took part in a huge blowout of the Cubs yesterday.

That's One Way to Debut

 

Imagine, for a second, that you have just been called up to the major leagues. The day you are up with the team, ready to debut out of the bullpen, your team is no-hitting the Texas Rangers. Keep in mind, the already came close to doing this earlier this month, Spencer Arrighetti had something going, but it didn't work out. Now a much less trustworthy pitcher's gone 6 strong, handed it to Steven Okert who went 1 strong...and now they are handing the ball to you. Your debut appearance will be attempting to complete a combined no-hitter in not only the away team's park...but the cross-state rival's park. So if you mess this up, it could haunt you for the rest of your life.

This was the conundrum put upon Alimber Santa last night in Arlington. 7 no-hit innings, now here you go. And then after 1 inning, the pitching coach tells you to stay out there. Josh Hader's still hurt, Bryan Abreu's not trustworthy, you're it. So now you have to face the top of the order in the bottom of the ninth and hope you get out of there with your dignity intact. 

Damn if Santa didn't handle it like a pro. 2 innings, 6 batters, all retired. And thus he gets to be the hero in his first MLB game ever. That's incredible. It's great for Tatsuya Imai, finally getting the hang of things over here, and for the oft-injured Okert, but Alimber Santa had to feel over the moon. This is the Astros in a nutshell, it's a well-oiled machine, and the people coming up, whoever they are, can probably inherit it. 

Obviously it's a little bit funny how Houston's still the no-no capital of baseball. They tried to stat twist, 'this is their first no-hitter since 2024'. Here's what you should have said. 'The Houston Astros have had a no-hitter in every season since 2022, except for 2025. They've had FIVE no-hitters in the past five seasons, one of them in the World Series. Hell, Christian Vasquez, who caught this one...he'd caught one BEFORE for the Astros! He caught the one in Game 4 of the World Series! So this isn't even new to him! 

Five no-hitters in 5 years- the Blue Jays haven't even thrown one since 1990! The Guardians haven't thrown one since 1981! Parker Messick got painstakingly close recently, and losing that one hurt. Don't give me that 'first since 2024' bullshit. 

It's very cool that this happened, and it's even cooler for Imai and Santa to be a part of this so early in their MLB careers. I'd love for some teams other than the Astros to figure out how to go all 9 without a hit. Cause without the Santa stat, it's hard to get excited about another Astros no-hitter. 

With Meatballs

 

So, what are the Astros without Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz, Lance McCullers, Josh Hader or Cristian Javier? Well...beatable, for one.

It should not have taken an injury-depleted year to illuminate the desperation of this Astros team. This organization has been so good for so long at replenishing the well and keeping the firm train of young players going, but take out enough of the core and you see the team for what it is. A bunch of people who've never known a year without success, trying so hard to do the same things they've done the last seven or eight times and getting frustrated that nothing's working. Yordan Alvarez is hitting .300 with 15 homers and 31 RBIs and I think he's growing concerned that this isn't enough anymore. When you don't have Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel or even Altuve behind you, so much more is on you, and by that point the long ball isn't always enough.

Let's examine the rest of this lineup and see if we can spot the flaws. The outfield is young, which is impressive considering the rest of the lineup, but they're all honestly too young. Cam Smith, Brice Matthews and Zach Cole are all under 25, and have been tasked to keep the outfield afloat. Any help, such as Taylor Trammell, Joey Loperfido, or even the recently-activated Jake Meyers, seems ineffective. Meanwhile, Christian Vasquez is starting behind the plate everyday, and while he's doing alright for himself, he's coming off as little more than a replacement option. Same with Braden Shewmake, the former Braves prospect who made the team out of necessity, and is starting virtually everyday at 2nd. He's better than Brendan Rodgers, and is hitting .291 with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs in 19 games, but...is still very much a replacement option. The fact that it already feels like it's just Alvarez, Christian Walker and a bunch of scrubs isn't a great sign, especially since that's what it felt like at many points last year. Trammell was getting prime lineup space. It wasn't pretty.

The rotation's not terrific either. They're burning through starting options quickly, and are down to depth options. Peter Lambert, former Rockies prospect that I hadn't thought about in four years, has made 6 starts, and has 35 strikeouts- he's been a decent place filler. Tatsuya Imai, thought to be the kill switch in the offseason, has been awful, with an 8.31 ERA in 5 starts. It's gotten so dire that they're now stretching out former Giant Kai-Wei Teng as a starting option, and while it's sort of working so far, the fact that he may not have even been in the top 10 choices to start is pretty concerning. This is Reds levels of desperation.

Despite all of that, they have Mike Burrows and his 5.72 ERA, which...how is HE the one guy that stays healthy, and the return of Spencer Arrighetti. The man loves to strike people out, and he's been doing a lot of that so far, with 35 in 6 starts, plus a 5-1 record and a 1.50 ERA. His last start was looking like a no-hitter for a bit, until the Rangers got a hit literally the second I tuned in. In an era where the Astros can regularly be counted on for multiple young, lethal starting options, right now it's just Arrighetti. No rookies, at the moment, coming in to save the day...just replacement options. This is where we're at.

I assume that at some point people are gonna start coming back and the team will attempt to be good again, but you can only really put a bow on a team like this, you can't make it something else. The Phillies' issues at least could be fixed with a regime change. These are way more foundational, and way harder to come back from. But this is, at the end of the day, the Astros, and they do hate me, so we'll see how far they get this October.

[I'm joking, please don't actually be a playoff team this year.]

Coming Tomorrow- The Giants don't have a ton going on right now, but at least they have this guy.

Astros Update: So It's Come to This Edition

 

I don't know if this feels different than the usual Yankee series wins against the Astros...but this one felt pretty sweet. 

Cause typically, and I don't know if you know this, but...typically the Astros-Yankees series' are pretty evenly matched. Y'know, the Astros pull some shit, then the Yankees come back, it's back and forth. And even if the Yankees have had the better regular season luck the last few meetings, it's never easy. But now, and...let's be clear, I'm aware that Spencer Arrighetti and Christian Walker made the third game tougher for us. But like...

Okay. Listen. I've been waiting for an Astros team to give me absolutely nothing for SO LONG. And I'm genuinely psyched that we're here. 

Here's what the Astros are working with right now. Yordan Alvarez is hitting .355 with 38 hits, 26 RBIs and 11 homers, all of those leading the league. It's a herculean start for Alvarez, trying to reclaim momentum after a down season. In addition, Christian Walker's having a comeback year, hitting .291 with 23 RBIs and 7 homers, finally settling in after a rough first season in Houston. Spencer Arrighetti, since coming off the IL, has been 3-0, with a 2 ERA and 21 Ks. Carlos Correa has been terrific on defense filling in for Jeremy Pena, and is also hitting .280 in his usual, pedestrian manner. 

That's it. That's...really it honestly. They're in last place, 11-18, and struggling mightily. And Joe Espada has been trying to save face by going 'well it's the injuries', but...even with that in mind, there are a lot of major players, like Yainer Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Lance McCullers, Bryan Abreu and Enyel de los Santos who just aren't pulling their weight. You're also dealing with a past-his-prime Jose Altuve with 8 RBIs in 27 games, steps backwards from both Cam Smith and Brice Matthews, and just a messy lineup schematic in general. 

To be fair to Espada, the injuries have been pretty rough for this team. The starting pitching has been hit so hard that they're now on a rotation of McCullers, Arrighetti, Mike Burrows, Peter Lambert (!!!) and an opener. They've already released J.P. France, demoted Colton Gordon and have, for some reason, yet to call on Jason Alexander, who's moonlighting in the Western Union ads Sugar Land. Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Ronel Blanco, Tatsuya Imai and Hayden Wesneski are all hurt. So cutting France and Luis Garcia now makes even LESS SENSE. Cause there's barely any room on the roster, and any potential call-ups need to be moved on purposefully. In past years, even with an injury-laden rotation, the Astros would have guys ready, in many cases Arrighetti or Gordon or someone. Now, they don't even have much of a bench, which is...why you don't trade Jake Bloss or Ryan Gusto. In addition, the majority of the outfield is hurt, meaning they either need to chance Alvarez's defense or throw a replacement level guy like Daniel Johnson (!!!!!) or Dustin Harris out there. Which is why you don't cut Chas McCormick. 

Every issue with this current iteration of the Astros seems self-inflicted, and the few guys playing well are coming off of rough, injury-plagued years. I don't know where they're headed. They've had worse starts than this and ended up in the playoffs. I kinda hope that random hot streak isn't enough to sink the AL West for them this time. I'd like to think the Mariners, A's and Rangers are good enough to keep that from happening this year, but...with this organization, can you ever be sure?

For now, though, I'll just take my Yanks series win and be happy. 

Coming Tomorrow- It takes a lot of panache to hit 2 home runs in your MLB debut and then insist you're more comfortable hitting for contact.

Don't Get Too Excited..

 

It's very easy to get to first in your division when you have to play the Angels and Red Sox and your opponent has to play the Yankees. 

I'm not ruling out the connotation that the Astros are a good team this year. The way the league works, any team can bounce back at any point, and the way the Astros organization is built, enough pieces can recover from an injury-lost year to make you forget it ever happened. This current Astros front office is so good at putting the exact correct people in position to succeed, and even if last year showed the limits of that [Jason Alexander, Brendan Rodgers, Jesus Sanchez], it's still completely attainable, and it prevents the Astros from ever being truly counted out, even if they're logically past their window. 

However. Even in a team that has begun the season 5-3, and has sole position of first in the AL East, there are visible signs that not everything is as solid as usual. And I generally mean the pitching.

Right now, the Astros' rotation consists of Hunter Brown, off to a terrific start, Lance McCullers, finally putting the injury period behind him, Mike Burrows, doing basically what he did in Pittsburgh, Cristian Javier, who may not be completely recovered from his injuries, and Tatsuya Imai, who got absolutely lit up in his first start. The bullpen is without Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu is nowhere near as dominant as he was last year, and it's been up to guys like A.J. Blubaugh and Kai-Wei Teng to be the difference makers. The team ERA is currently 5.45. If the team wasn't hitting .259 that'd stand out more.

Now, normally you can chalk a rough Opening Day rotation up to a large shelf of injured pitchers. But now you have to remember that Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia are all gone. The only actual injured starters at the moment are Ronel Blanco, Brandon Walter and Hayden Wesneski. One can assume that Spencer Arrighetti is rehabbing in the minors and that's why he's not up with the team, but it's ideally just those three. Meaning Mike Burrows is your #3 man not because purely of circumstance...but because he really is the third best starter they've got right now. 

That really is gonna be what the question is this year: can the Astros truly compete without the luxury of having an elite pitching staff? Because the hitting, as it looks at the moment, won't be much of a concern. Yordan Alvarez is 100% back, his poor 2025 completely behind him, and he's hitting .400 with 3 homers and 7 RBIs already. Jose Altuve, Christian Walker and Carlos Correa are all hitting again. The contact game is a little weak but the idea is that it'll get there, especially considering Cam Smith and Jake Meyers are still factors. There is a possibility that the lineup depth this team sported could also be diluted as well, and it may be down to a more power-centric focus than they've had in years. But right now they're coasting on Alvarez's success and hoping they can build out the rest. And if not, this will come down to how long the pitching can last. Because as good as Hunter Brown has been, he, like every other young pitcher, is a ticking timebomb headed towards the potential for an injury. It happened to Cade Horton, it could happen here.

The Astros' strong first week or so illuminates that they still intend to compete, and they still have some great assets. Those flaws are also very much on display, and if they don't have a plan to work around them, they could miss out on the playoffs for the second year in a row. And as much as I'd love to see that, I know this team's way too good to just let that happen.

Coming Tonight: Dude struck out 10 in his debut with a new team, years after being essentially written off by the league. Is...is he BACK?

The Art of Running it Back

 

Spring Training is one of those times of extreme optimism. Everything's good, everything's promising, cause no games have been played yet. It could be anybody's year, and that includes us. Right now, there are 30 valid storylines being concocted towards a championship outcome, and since it's still February there's really no ruling out any of them. And you can make the joke of 'well, we can rule out the Rockies', and yeah, probably. But the Pirates, A's and White Sox are usually counted out and even they have more going on this year. 

But it's easier to look like a new team when you've made substantial moves towards a championship. The Pirates got some genuine big pieces this year, for once. The White Sox got Murakami plus a TON of solid options at multiple positions. The A's actually put money into the roster and have a team for the next few years. If your plan is just to 'run it back', then you're gonna get people saying 'they don't want to win'. And running it back can still be a valid way forward, the Dodgers mostly ran it back last year and it did well for them. But certain fanbases demand some effort. The Phillies fans by me are somewhat infuriated that the plan to fix an aging core is to simply run it back, forgetting that A.) the team strengthened its bullpen and has at least three organizational cornerstones hitting the majors this year, B.) they got to keep Schwarber's offense and Realmuto's defense, and C.) they don't have to be stuck with either Bo Bichette's defense or Nick Castellanos's anything. The general plan is 'run it back' but they still fixed what killed the team. 

However, not everyone is so lucky. Some teams just decide to run it back and insist they're still moving forward.

The Arizona Diamondbacks want the big takeaway from this offseason to be, 'see, we kept Ketel Marte, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen'. Forgetting that literally all three were highly sought after by other teams. The D-Backs were actively shopping Marte, even coming close to a deal with Seattle that backfired when the M's refused to part with Cole Young. Perhaps knowing that trading their young, upstart 2nd baseman to Arizona for a veteran rounding a top tier year didn't work well for them in the past, so there was no use getting Ketel Marte if they'd be giving up another, younger Ketel Marte. Kelly returning to AZ was a surprise, and Gallen came back only after several teams, including the Cubs and Orioles, balked at the suggested number he had in mind. There is a universe where the D-Backs lose all three players, and possibly even Perdomo as well [he was reportedly shopped too] and still have to play the 'we're still running it back' game. 

In addition to the three players the D-Backs kept that they almost didn't, the only real players the team brought on were 'let's see what they have left' guys. Mike Soroka keeps being brought onto teams with the belief that what was glimpsed in 2018 could return, but we're still waiting for that. Carlos Santana will be 40 this year, and he's almost completely lost his ability to hit for power. And Nolan Arenado...no one is quite sure what he has left. He wasn't *terrible* for the Cardinals last season, but it was the most human year of his career, and the most injury-plagued one too. His defense is still above average, but that bat isn't what it was, and unless the soon-to-be-35-year-old has something else up his sleeve, he'll be a high priced defensive upgrade that will exist to keep Jordan Lawlar from starting [again]. Arenado is no longer the boost that he was, and he may have more in common with Evan Longoria in 2023...though Longo had a better team around him then.

The D-Backs running it [diamond]back in a year where the Dodgers are still expected to win the division and the Padres and Giants are still expected to compete is an odd move. It's better than fully giving up, and I think they know they've been right there the past few years and could boost over, but I'm not sure if it'll work this time.

The Astros, meanwhile, have a similar 'run it back' strategy even if some substantial changes have been made. Jesus Sanchez, a crucial deadline pickup from last year, was dealt for Joey Loperfido, and Tatsuya Imai was brought in as a starting option. However, the issue with running it back from 2025 is that this year, the majority of the contingency plans are in camp together with the people they subbed in for with injuries. Which means Brandon Walter, Spencer Arrighetti and Cristian Javier are competing with Jason Alexander, A.J. Blubaugh and Colton Gordon for rotation spots, in addition to newcomers Tatsuya Imai and Mike Burrows, plus preexisting locks Hunter Brown, Lance McCullers and...wait, what? How...that's like 10 people fighting for 5 spots. 

Like, I get the idea of preparing for injuries by putting in contingency starters, but you're now ensuring like 5 other people who are MLB-ready will either be doing long relief work or starting in Triple-A. Mike Burrows was doing fairly well in Pittsburgh, he gets traded to Houston and now we're not even sure if he's gonna make the team. I actually think he's got a nice shot to make the rotation, but then who doesn't? Is Jason Alexander getting cut? This was supposed to be the summer of George!

More confusing still is what the Astros plan on doing with their lineup. Last year at the deadline they traded for Carlos Correa, opting for a 2016 reunion in the wake of Isaac Paredes's injury. Paredes eventually came back and they traded off for the postseason push...of a postseason that didn't actually happen for this team. This year, the plan seems to be starting Correa at third...which, again was only due to convenience last year, then starting Paredes at DH, and...for some reason getting Yordan Alvarez to play left field everyday. I don't think that's sustainable. You're saying you'd rather have Alvarez's defense than Paredes's, which I don't completely agree with. If anything, Paredes should get more reps at first, as Christian Walker may be on the downslope.

It illuminates the problem with running it back, because if you're running it back with everyone who was there last time, without, like...letting people go and standing down the roster to an actual manageable unit, then it's gonna be chaos! Then deserving people aren't gonna be able to start, they're gonna ask to be traded and the league opinion of the organization is gonna go down further, even after the cheating. It just makes no sense to me, at least at this stage of the spring. I do know the Astros have a way of working things out, even if it doesn't look possible on paper. So even with all this they could still compete this year. 

This is why I'm not a GM. I'm way too pragmatic about it. There's so many moves that don't make sense to me because I only see it from the outside perspective. So maybe running it back works for one of these teams, or maybe both. Or, y'know...I'm right, and then some team can hire me to be assistant GM. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Astros

 

For the first time since 2016, the Houston Astros failed to make the playoffs. What a great thing to say after all the hell they've put me through. Stealing signs, making it to the end every year, beating both my teams, not getting penalized enough. And this year, they finish 87-75, after being one of the best teams in the AL during the middle months, and are taken out in the final moments of the season by a Tigers win. They absolutely collapsed in August and September, and saw the Mariners overtake them for the division and go deeper than they could have. It was, in a word, satisfying.

Now, would this have happened if the big pieces hadn't gotten injured? Maybe. You also have to remember that Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman left, and more might be leaving this offseason. And knowing how the Astros handled Tucker's injury last year, by downplaying it to the point of inaccurately leading fans on, seeing them do it again this year with Yordan Alvarez just confirms how much of a sinking ship this team is now. Plugging Jose Altuve into left field while giving his position to Brendan Rodgers, then getting confused when that doesn't work, and then panicking when Cooper Hummel sucks in left as well and Jesus Sanchez hits .199 there. MAYBE YOU SHOULDN'T PISS OFF YOUR LEFT FIELDER. He's gonna be making lots of money this offseason, as well Bregman, and if you'd have actually stayed on good terms with them it'd be for your team! Jeez!

Anyway, Yordan Alvarez only played 48 games this year, because he got hurt early, the injury was downplayed, he came back after the All-Star break and then got hurt again. So much is said about how well the Astros builds their organization, but not enough is said about how terribly they treat players once they're up. This could have been avoided, man. 

Alvy's year was...I mean I guess it was fine, for 48 games. Hit .273, 27 RBIs and only 6 homers. I reckon if he stays healthy and isn't screwed over by the team, they win that 88th game.

2026 Prediction: 2025 was the only full season of Alvarez's career that didn't give him over 30 homers. Next year will ensure this stays the case. An All-Star nod to follow.

Something else the Astros really don't like talking about is that since Yuli Gurriel left, they've had the absolute worst luck at 1st base. Similar to the Mariners' black hole at 2nd, the Astros have fired sure thing after sure thing into that position and they've all struggled. Trey Mancini gutter-balled, then Jose Abreu burned millions on a deal that could have gotten them the stars. And now it's Christian Walker's turn. The former Diamondback signed a pretty cool deal last offseason, for 3 years and 60 million, and the Astros must have forgotten the small detail that Walker was 33 when he signed it. This season was...certainly a season of baseball played by a 34-year-old. Despite barely missing any time, Walker was shockingly average, with the first under-average defensive work of his career, a negligible WAR figure and a career high 177 Ks. Granted, Walker also hit 27 homers and had 88 RBIs [the team leader in both!], but this was not his best work. He'd lost a dimension or so, and that's not what the Astros signed.

2026 Prediction: I'd like to think there's an improvement, but he'll be 35, and he's no Paul Goldschmidt. So there may be more of the same. The power numbers will be the same though.

After a phenomenal 2024, Ronel Blanco was one of several Houston starters, including Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers, Spencer Arrighetti, Luis Garcia, J.P. France and Hayden Wesneski, to miss copious amounts of playing time this year. I think of that group, Blanco had the best sample size, and quality, while he was healthy, with a 4.10 ERA and 48 Ks in 9 starts. Unfortunately, the injury came right after I picked him up in fantasy, and that was his season.

2026 Prediction: Um...something tells me Hunter Brown might not make all his starts. So I figure Blanco will at least be healthy enough to make up the work for him. A much better season, if not 2024-first-half levels.

For the second time with Houston, Mauricio Dubon won a gold glove as a utility infielder. For someone who struggled to find a place with both the Brewers and Giants, it's been very cool to see Dubon come into his own as a super-ute, and in a year with SO MANY INFIELD INJURIES, there was no shortage of playing time for the guy. And of course, Dubon was exceptional in the field, with a 17 fWAR figure, and the occasional contact moment as well. Even if so much is in disarray for this team, the Astros can still rely on Dubon, which is fantastic [I drafted this in early November]. 

2026 Prediction: WELL APPARENTLY THE ASTROS DON'T NEED HIM THAT BADLY ANYMORE. I honestly think Atlanta's a great place for him. He can play the infield on a daily basis or be a utility piece like in Houston. Plus, with all the injury turnaround they might need him a lot.

Victor Caratini has become one of the more respected backup catchers in the game, alongside Austin Hedges and Jacob Stallings. Unlike those guys, Caratini was able to hit this year. In 114 games, Caratini hit .259 with 46 RBIs and 12 homers, which, in this cursed year, was the 6th most on the Astros. Caratini's a very good guy to have around, and he's found a nice home in Houston.

2026 Prediction: Houston re-signs him, he becomes defacto starter midyear, does well.

So here's the story with Brandon Walter. Dude went to UDel, was drafted by the Sox, mostly minor league guy, gets a taste in 2023. Keeps kicking around, gets cut by the Sox, the Astros pick him up. This year, due to the lack of healthy options, Walter, at 28, gets a shot, and does well in a starting role. In 9 games, he has a 3.35 ERA, 52 Ks, and a 1.3 WAR. Then he gets hurt and is out for the rest of the year. Not sure who's unluckier, him or the Astros.

2026 Prediction: Even if he does come back, he's like ninth in the depth chart. I see him mostly as a triple-A guy.

So then after that, with little to no other healthy options, the Astros go with career swingman Jason Alexander, brother of Scott and not, as previously assumed, the star of 'Dunston Checks In'. Alexander began the year as a middle relief guy in Sacramento, and after one too many heckle of 'SERENITY NOW' from one of the dozens of people in attendance, he was cut and picked up by Houston. Where he soon found himself...starting games. In all honesty, for a while Alexander was one of the Astros' best players. From July 29th to September 15th, all of Alexander's starts culminated in wins, only allowing a high of three runs in any of them. Of course, then he got clobbered by Seattle, and there went the 1st place hopes, but Alexander still finished the year with a 4-2 record and a 3.66 ERA.

2026 Prediction: Well, he SHOULD be kept as a long man and relief piece, but with the injury turnover in Houston who even knows at this point? You know we're LIVING IN A SOCIETY.

Aside from nabbing Carlos Correa at the deadline, the Astros also tried to solve their left field issue by bringing in Jesus Sanchez, who'd been good, if not world-destroying, for Miami. Sanchez had some high highs, with 12 RBIs and 4 homers in 48 games, but the .199 average, despite some decent defense, made it more of a puzzling add. Sanchez is fundamentally a good player, but he couldn't meet this moment for the Astros.

2026 Prediction: I think he mellows out a produces a better full-season effort but he still has the potential to be a Dan-Vogelbach-sized thorn in the side of a fanbase who are expecting the world of him.

With Chas McCormick no longer an option and Jake Meyers oft-injured, the Astros brought up Zach Cole to potentially be the next great Astros outfielder. In 15 games, Cole hit .255 with 11 RBIs and 4 homers. He's got a high contact ceiling and hit over .300 with the Space Cowboys. Might be something here.

2026 Prediction: If the Astros don't deal him for Brendan Donovan or somebody like that, he makes his way up the depth chart and is the next Kyle Tucker, something the Astros desperately need.

And most surprisingly, the Astros brought in Craig Kimbrel after he proved he was useful, if low on options, for the Braves. Kimbrel is 37, and I think he just needs some seasons out of the spotlight, a lot like Aroldis Chapman, so he can find himself again. In 13 games, Kimbrel had a 2.45 ERA and 16 Ks. Not as poisonous as his Orioles or Phils numbers, and a lower key year. I'm not sure if this is the last we'll see of Kimbrel in the bigs, but at least if that's the case he doesn't go out completely undignified. 

2026 Prediction: I think he makes camp with somebody, has some middle relief appearances and one last save. And then hangs it up.

Coming Tomorrow- The A's didn't make the playoffs either, but at least I can see what direction they're headed.

That's The Way it Stros

 

As it stands at the moment, the last spot in the AL playoff field will either go to the Detroit Tigers, who let a great season get away from them in a way that I completely empathize with them, or the Houston Astros. Both teams are working on getting through today with a win. The Astros rode Framber Valdez to a win over Oakland, and the Tigers are finally lighting the fire under their rear ends to strike back against the Guardians. Both teams are at 85 wins, both teams have a Cy Young candidate, and both teams had a fairly unlucky trade deadline. 

You can probably guess who I'm rooting for to snag that last spot. I'll give you a hint, it's not the Astros.

I feel like we're gonna be 10 or 20 years down the line, and the Astros will have been a losing team for a while with no future and no promise, and I'm still gonna root for them to lose. It's the same as the Patriots now. I don't want the Pats to get good again because for a good 20 years they were good, and in a way that directly antagonized my interests. That is the Astros as well. It's not that they were good constantly, it's that they were hot constantly and valued that over being good. The Astros have had some phenomenal teams over the past 10 years, and the two that won the Series' might not have even been the best ones. 2018 and 2019 were probably the fullest portrait of what this team was capable of, the Gerrit Cole years. After that, people started leaving and they tried to convince people they were still that good, and...I mean, they got one more ring out of it. Last year they were embarrassed by a team that got hotter than they ever could, and it was a worthy dethroning. 

This year...I've tried looking at this Astros team for a direction, or a unified idea, or anything, and it hasn't been there. A lot was hanging on Jake Meyers, and there was a big hole when he got hurt, but...Jake Meyers paled in comparison to the sort of people he's replaced. He's not George Springer, he's not Kyle Tucker, both are more valuable to their current teams than Meyers is to Houston. He's a .292 hitter, but in 104 games he's got 24 RBIs. He's very good defensively, he's very good on the basepaths, but he's not an offensive killer. And in a season where Alvarez is falling apart, Paredes is gone for half the year and Altuve is past his prime, you need at least someone who you can fall back on, and Meyers is not that guy.

The heroes for the Astros this year have been Jake Meyers, Mauricio Dubon, Jason Alexander, Bryan Abreu, and ultimately Jeremy Pena, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. The depth is gone. There's depth pieces stepping into lead roles. Christian Walker, like Jose Abreu before him, was plugged into 1st to maintain the power numbers and it hasn't been pretty. Jesus Sanchez has been a disaster defensively. Cam Smith is having a fine rookie year but is hitting .239. The future is still stuttering on call-ups, and Zach Cole and Brice Mathews don't have it yet. 

Honestly, missing the playoffs would be the best thing to happen to the Astros, because for once this year they stop lying to themselves. They're not that team anymore. They don't have it. Maybe then they'd actually address some of their issues instead of trying to catch the wave and ride that. You can't catch any waves if your surfboard's caved in. 

Coming Tomorrow- A perennial threat from a team gearing up to shock the world again this fall.

You Can't Go Home

 

Storytime for any long time readers of the blog, and for those of you asking, yes, apparently this thing has longtime readers that didn't originate in a processing plant in Singapore.

Back in 2014, I was a freshman in college, and was still trying to make an attempt to follow baseball while also taking on multiple freshman classes, the expectation of a social life and various other ill-fated desires of an eighteen-year-old without much self-awareness. I've written off a lot of the blog's content before 2014, and I've also kinda written off some of its content during that freshman year, because my mind was so many other places. 

Which is why in September of 2014, I wrote a post, which I since deleted, about how the Baltimore Orioles, with a genuinely great team led by prime Manny Machado, prime Adam Jones and Chris Davis before he fell off a cliff, didn't deserve to be in first place, and the Yankees, with its contractual bloat and flux between eras under Girardi, did. I had the guise of someone coping with the fact that Jacoby Ellsbury, post-Braves Brian McCann and end of career Hiroki Kuroda weren't getting anyone a championship, and I was taking it out on the Orioles because I couldn't see why they were better. They just were. They nearly got to a World Series that year. And I had a handful of people telling me that I was wrong for saying the Orioles were only in 1st place 'by default', which I was. The Orioles earned it, the Yanks weren't there yet, it was obvious even then.

Why do I bring this up? Because knowing how damaging it can be to say that a team is in first place by default despite all of the effort put in to make that possible, it is my genuine opinion that the Houston Astros are only in first place right now because nobody is currently good enough to knock them off. It's not that they're better than the Mariners or Rangers. They're just better at winning when those other teams lose. It's not effort, it's luck.

The Astros have not had the team, and have had so many harbingers that the end is nigh. Jose Altuve is firmly past his prime, and like the team's other RBI/HR leader Christian Walker, he's not moving things forward statistically. Jason Alexander is having to start games, and the Astros are insanely lucky his ERA's below 4. Bryan Abreu is covering the ninth for Josh Hader, and you can tell it's not his preference. Alvarez and Meyers are trying to make up for lost time but it's slower than expected. 

Most of all, Carlos Correa has plugged into third base in place of Isaac Paredes, and it's a clear attempt to bring Astros fans back to 2017. The glory days are back, here's the old shortstop hero, look at him go. Correa is definitely a step up from where he was in Houston, he's hitting .305 with 4 homers and 16 RBIs, but...he's not really producing. He's a liability on fantasy because he barely scores you points. And he's only slightly above average statistically, a far cry from where he was. Correa is giving this team name recognition without giving it a surefire answer, a bandaid on an amputation. 

And so the Astros stay in first, despite dropping games to the Angels and Yankees. The Mariners, as discussed, have blown so many opportunities to inch up to the Astros in the standings, and it's really up to the Rangers now, as they have more matches against Houston this month. And I'm not even sure if the Rangers are even good enough to make that happen this year, despite the strides they've made in the past month. If anyone in this scrum has the best team, it's the Mariners, it just doesn't do what it's supposed to. So here we are, with two inferior teams battling it out for a division title because the Mariners have the worst luck in the last third of the season.

The Astros have some very good elements this year, like Jeremy Pena and Hunter Brown. It's not a full team effort. It's not a World Series team, and if they get there it'll be through the same annoying luck [or even cheating] that's gotten them there in years past. 

So there. The Astros are currently in first by default. If the Mariners or Rangers take 1st from them it'll be well deserved. Send any and all hate mail to rmanfred(at)mlb(dot)com

Coming Tonight: He had a blazing start with the Orioles, then carried that over to even more damage with San Diego.

Act Like It's Business as Usual

 

Today the Houston Astros, with their trusted closer gone for a while and their setup man Bryan Abreu not a proven 9th inning man, signed Craig Kimbrel to a deal. Kimbrel has been...shaky in recent years. Last year for Baltimore he struggled mightily filling in for Felix Bautista. Earlier this year he was very good in two appearances for Atlanta but was cut rather than optioned due to his contract. It does generally look like Kimbrel looks better than he has, and could help the Astros. But Kimbrel also might be a small bandaid on a gaping wound. 

The Astros have lost 6 of their last 8. Four of those losses were shutouts, including a game that was nearly perfect. Three of those losses had deficits of 10 runs or more. As I'm writing this they're winning against the Orioles, but that's because of their ingenious strategy of making the Orioles leave Brandon Young in til the ninth and tire him out so that the next time they have to face him, a week later, he'll be manageable. But the rest of the O's series relies on starts from Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers and Spencer Arrighetti, all of whom have missed time this year due to injuries, and all of whom have seen their quality go down as a result. Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez have been great, but they've been lucky. 

Bryan Abreu, with a 2.8 WAR, has the fourth-highest WAR on the team. Higher than every hitter except for Jeremy Pena. Which means that only one hitter has a better WAR than 2.8. On the Astros, the team that normally outhits everyone. Could it be that letting Alex Bregman, George Springer and Kyle Tucker go results in a spottier overall lineup performance? Or maybe getting mixed signals on Yordan Alvarez's status a year after going through the same ordeal with Kyle Tucker points to bargaining with the inevitable? Look, the way this team used to be run, an injury to Taylor Trammell didn't used to be the sort of thing that hampered momentum. Or a missed month from Jake Meyers. 

It's down to the Bryan Abreus and Mauricio Dubons and Victor Caratinis of this team, and that's why there's been such a drop-off. Even plugging Carlos Correa back into things can only do so much. He's hitting .333 with 2 homers and 8 RBIs, but he's running into the same problems he did in Minnesota, where the exclamation point he used to carry is basically gone and now he's just a halfway decent infield bat. Meanwhile, Abreu has a 1.58 ERA and 84 Ks in 56 innings. He's one of the best relief pieces in baseball. And he's arguably succeeding because there's no pressure on him. There's been pressure on Meyers and Trammell and Christian Walker to fill these roles and bring the team back and it's just not happening because the Astros are trying to pretend that nothing's different. The last couple years this has worked because the core has still been volatile. Here it's not fooling anyone.

The one thing the Astros have to be grateful for is that the Mariners are falling at a similar rate. But next the Astros have to play the Rockies and Angels, two teams who've played the spoiler for similar competitors, while the Mariners have to play the A's, Guardians and Rays. You never know when the momentum will finally swing someone else's way.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the most powerful hitters of his generation by far.

One Injury Too Many

 

So let me get this straight. When the Astros were without almost their entirety of their rotation, including Ronel Blanco, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, J.P. France, Spencer Arrighetti and Hayden Wesneski, that was alright. That was manageable. But now that the Astros are without Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers, Isaac Paredes, Brandon Walter and Lance McCullers...NOW it's a problem? Being on skeleton crew pitching scenario, that works. But you don't have enough magic beans to get your way out of your four best hitters being down? Slacking, aren't we, Astros?

That really is the root of it. The Astros were looking really good, flying high above the AL West and keeping the Mariners at bay, and then a bunch of people got hurt. Paredes and Alvarez before the break, Meyers the other day. And now the lineup feels...barren. They're down to leading off Taylor Trammell, batting Victor Caratini third, putting Jacob Melton ahead of Yainer Diaz and starting Zack Short. It's gotten to the point where not even yet another quality start by Framber Valdez can be backed up. 

...against the Nationals.

Seeing as I've been waiting for the Astros to be exposed, I've been loving this. Obviously those guys are gonna come back and save the day, but even still you're still talking about down years from Alvarez and McCullers. And the way this team was built, losing Jake Meyers really shouldn't wound you that much. You've had George Springer and Kyle Tucker. Jake Meyers is a .300 hitter, but he's not those guys. He has 3 home runs and 21 RBIs in 89 games. No wonder they wanted to replace Tucker with Altuve back there.

Not only has this team been slumping, it just doesn't have much to work with. Who's their standout now? Christian Walker and his 115 strikeouts? Altuve and his shit defense? Yainer Diaz is FINE this year, he's hitting .245 with 13 homers and 40 RBIs, and because he's still healthy he's so much more valuable. It's honestly really sad to watch. Much easier to watch is seeing teams like the Nats, the A's, the Mariners, the Rangers and the Guardians pummel the shit out of this team. Nick Kurtz's 6-for-6, 4 homer day was against the Astros, and it was glorious. On their July losing stretch, 8 of the losses were against AL West competitors, and four were against teams with a 4 game deficit behind them for the division. 

And of course, both teams are getting hot. The Rangers have had a really impressive stretch, fueled by the return of Corey Seager. The Mariners are getting hot again as well, thriving after the addition of Josh Naylor at first. Both of these teams have more of a reason to succeed this year than Houston, and it shouldn't have taken a complete annihilation of the Astros' lineup to get here. Of course, the Astros guys are gonna come back and make it competitive, and you know this team wants to keep anyone else from winning the West because why should anyone else have it? But it would be astounding to see something like this finally halt the Astros' momentum. It's a long time coming, and it would be really sweet to watch.

Coming Tonight: A future Hall of Famer having the closest approximation to a down year he's experienced in a while. 

Stop Me If You Think You've Heard This One Before

This Dodgers-Astros series is beginning to infuriate the hell out of me. The narrative of this season thus far has been 'we have progressed past the need for a competitive Astros team', and now we're midway through and the narrative is now 'sike, no we haven't'. We were doing fine with our fun Tigers stories and our NL West battles, and now we go back to the Astros dominating despite a train wreck of an infield and an injury roulette of a rotation. And now they're beating the shit out of the Dodgers. Just spare me. Please. It's not fun anymore. 

Like, okay, they lose Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, two very big pieces, and by absolute fricking inertia two perfect fits just slide right into place. Isaac Paredes has been beautiful at third, he's having another amazing season and has 18 homers and 48 RBIs already. And now Cam Smith is heating up in the outfield, he's hitting .292 with an .805 OPS. Like...teams are supposed to like strike out and have replacements that don't work ['y'know, like Brendan Rodgers..], but so many times, this team just falls directly into amazing luck, like some deity just thinks it's better this way. Hunter Brown becoming unhittable the year the Astros' rotation would otherwise crater is infuriatingly good timing. 

And that's how you can describe the Astros: half of it is great organizational work, the other half is scarily good timing. No other team who puts that much work and money into the product has luck like this. Even the Dodgers have lost an entire rotation. Even the Yankees are struggling now. But the Astros just keep figuring it out, to the point where Orel Hershiser suggested that there's this possibility that the Astros knew when the breaking balls were coming Friday night. Which, unless there's legitimate evidence, or a new trashcan key or something, is just gonna be a bold claim, but...if you only punish a couple people and just let everyone else do whatever they want, after a while they're gonna try and do the thing you punished them for again. Like it's proof the punishment wasn't bad enough. If you want a kid to stop stealing shit, ground him for a week and make him admit that stealing is morally bad. A somewhat stern talking-to is not gonna change behaviors, despite what some politicians would have you believe.

And it also takes the sting out of another strong Dodgers season, which has been going well even without Snell, Sasaki, Glasnow and Gonsolin. Will Smith has become a .300 hitter, which is pretty awesome considering he's already one of the best catchers in the league. Pages seems to be an everyday guy now, which is very helpful. Betts is finally getting hot, as is Conforto I think. Hyseseong Kim is the exact kind of utility whiz the Dodgers needed. 

But with all these injuries, the fact of the matter is that, once again, the Dodgers haven't been left that great of a rotation. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the only sure bet, and even he's gotten into some rough starts recently. Kershaw and May can wield excellent stuff then get clobbered, Knack is still getting there, and Wrobleski and Casparius are...not optimal options for a 1st place competitor. And yes, you have Ohtani back on the mound finally, but he's being so careful with his innings that he's not really much of a trusted starter. He's really a trusted opener right now. Meanwhile, the Astros have Brown, Framber Valdez, and three rookies who seem to be much better at getting the hang of the majors than the Dodgers's. 

That's the other thing. Both teams are riddled with injuries. The Astros also have an entire rotation's worth of injured pitchers. But they still have the momentum, and they can still get things to work because they somehow can get pitchers ready in Triple-A better than the Dodgers can. It blows my mind.

Look, there's a chance the Dodgers take back the momentum today, but I think it's best they just ride it out and regroup after the break. And then hope whatever's keeping the Astros up depletes down the line.

Coming Tonight: Probably a post complaining about the All-Star rosters.

Always Be Closing: All That Remains

 

I've written a lot about how the '30 saves a season for more than five years' closer is practically a thing of the past, now that there are more professional relievers and more of an insistence on giving the RP1 the ninth rather than farming a closer over time. There's more mobility, more opportunities, and more of an immediate mentality of swapping out the closer if it's not working out, because each team has like 4 guys that can close games now. This season, the Phillies have seen Jordan Romano, Matt Strahm and now Orion Kerkering work the ninth at different points. The Yankees have given it to Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Mark Leiter and Fernando Cruz. Therefore, Williams maybe won't be a 30-save guy for the next several years. You're even seeing Emmanuel Clase struggle in the ninth, which is why you build an award-winning bullpen of young guys. 

Which is why it's so refreshing that the Astros actually value a permanent closer. They signed Josh Hader to a deal, and the expectation is he's gonna close for the rest of that contract. No 'you have to earn it' like Kirby Yates or Aroldis Chapman. No 'if it lines up' like Jeff Hoffman. Hader's automatically a closing option, because he's had 30 or more saves every full season since 2019. I remember 2018, when we figured Hader would be a career setup man due to Corey Knebel's ninth inning prowess, but Knebel petered out, Hader got the ninth and never looked back. At 31 he already has 217 saves, which is high for the modern era honestly, and is still very much in his peak period.

I think it's safe to say, with apologies to Emmanuel Clase as he builds back up again, that Hader might be the last traditional closer of this current era. Chapman, Kimbrel and Jansen are all on the way out, and there aren't many other guys who've racked up the accomplishments Hader has, so he's sort of in a class of his own. And already this season, with Pressly gone, it's really just been him vying for saves, and he's got 18 already with a 1.45 ERA. This will probably be Hader's strongest season in Houston, even if the rest of the team has its flaws. 

Now, why has Hader succeeded while others have failed? I'm not sure. Because Hader did have a down year in 2022, upon arriving in San Diego, and immediately rebounded the following year. My guess is that teams are just so infatuated with Hader's upside, consistent dominance and high speeds, that they can take a down season or so, especially compared to rough multi-year stretches like Jansen, Chapman and Kimbrel all had. Even Edwin Diaz, the closest thing to Hader's level of perennial closer, has given the Mets several less-than-stellar seasons, and only seems to find success when everyone's counted him out. Hader, comparatively just goes on by and does his thing. It's kind of wild how rare that is nowadays, especially considering how many closers will overthrow and either strain or be out for a year.

I think Hader's also been lucky that he's almost always been on very good teams that have given him a handful of save situations. I think about Kimbrel in 2022 on the Dodgers, and how the team was so good at the plate that they barely needed a closer, or even a good closer. The Astros right now are very good, but they're not perfect, and try as they might they're not easily gonna fill those holes at 2nd, DH and RF. Hell, their big ploy at filling 1st, getting Christian Walker, has barely worked. Isaac Paredes, Hunter Brown and Cam Smith have been very good developments, and getting to 1st in the AL West is easy when your three fiercest competitors always plan the bit where they trip on their own shoelaces every year. But they will need Hader, because the games are gonna be close, and the competition is gonna try to sniff them out. So the Astros, like Hader, are very lucky, and they need to hope that Hader has a few more terrific years in him.

Coming Tomorrow- He came up as a utility infielder and now exists purely as an RBI machine.

Astros Update: Something is Broken Edition

 

Here are some facts about the Astros. In the past week, the Astros have suffered two different losses where they gave up 13 or more runs, both to the Tampa Bay Rays, they have lost two major organizational figures [Ronel Blanco and Yordan Alvarez] to injuries then immediately lost both Chas McCormick and Zach Dezenzo, meaning they're running out of outfielders as well, and have had to defend Lance McCullers from cyberattacks after ruining prop bets with a security brigade. This is a week's worth of team breaking crises, which the Astros are experiencing...as they proceed to what could be a first place berth. 

Yes. That's right. Even with everything that's been going wrong, including Altuve's awful left field experience, Brendan Rodgers' awful time filling in at 2nd, and the back half of the rotation caverning, has not stopped the Astros from being in position to lap the Mariners, who, while still winning games, are only a half game ahead. And while both teams are playing sub-.500 teams right now, the Mariners are playing the ones who are beginning to pick up [the Orioles]. Meanwhile, the Astros get to play the Pirates. I mean...come on now. 

It will never cease to frustrate me how consistently well the Astros can do while statistically not deserving to. It's the equivalent of a senator always getting elected and never getting primaried but never actually doing anything to deserve to stay in power. So much is going on behind the scenes to ensure that this current balance remains, regardless of whether or not it should be. The Astros have had multiple seasons now where they've clearly demonstrated a subpar, below-standard team, and yet they keep frigging winning. They've made the playoffs every year since 2017, and only one of those years wasn't a division win. There have been so many more deserving teams in that stretch. The 2010s A's teams. The 2023 Rangers team. Any Mariners team from the past few years. Right now, the Mariners are the better team, have the better pitchers, and have more power hitters doing what they're supposed to, and because they're the Mariners they ebb and flow more than most.

I will give the Astros some credit. They have a good amount of people playing well. Jeremy Pena, as much as he confounds me, is having a great season, hitting .309 with 9 homers and 30 RBIs. Isaac Paredes is still a fixture at 3rd, with 11 homers and 32 RBIs. Brown and Valdez are in excellent shape, the bullpen's pretty solid across the board, and Cam Smith is coming into his own. But this just doesn't feel like a first place team to me, and it pains me to see this organization continue to get out of every scrape imaginable. 

I just wanna go back to the early 2010s when the Astros were terrible, it was so much simpler then.

Coming Tomorrow- He flirted with greatness but struggled with consistency for Philly, and then for Boston. Yet something about how the Padres were ready to throw the vault at him just moved me to pick him up in fantasy this year. Probably one of my best gambles.

Moving On By Force

 

2025 is the year that it has become abundantly clear how urgently the Astros need to leave their past behind them. The majority of their championship staffers have left, and while a lot of the 2022 team still remains, they're not as essential as they were [barring choice examples like Framber Valdez and Jeremy Pena]. This year alone, the Astros have seen their perennial hero, Jose Altuve, struggle to competently play left field, their 2017-era fireballer Lance McCullers get lit up in a long-awaited return and then have to fend off death threats from sports betters, and their longtime favorite Alex Bregman have an incredible season...for the Boston Red Sox.

The dream may, in fact, be over. They're over .500, and in 2nd, but they're more human than they've ever been. They need to act like what they are, not what they were. Because it's a different team. Not better exactly, but different. And they need to embrace that.

For instance, right now one of the Astros' best hitters is Isaac Paredes, who they traded Ryan Pressly, another remnant of the 2010s teams, for. Paredes is an excellent power bat with some defensive third base perks, and he can plug into just about any lineup and be a consistent producer. So far he's hitting .267 with 19 RBIs and 6 homers, plus 40 hits overall. It's exactly what you need, even if it's not full Bregman style dominance. Similarly impressive is Jeremy Pena, who's hitting .315 with 6 homers and 23 RBIs. He's not the full flashy Carlos Correa type, but he's efficient and does his job. Hunter Brown, who's 6-1 with a 1.48 ERA, is coming to prominence not through overwhelming numbers like Keuchel, Cole and Verlander had, but just keeping people down and staying sharp. They've outgrown the 'villains of the MLB' thing I think, and nobody left [barring Altuve] really seems like a villainous force in the game. Even Ronel Blanco, who no-hit the Blue Jays out of revenge, has mellowed into just another solid starter. 

The Astros are capable of taking off the pressure and just playing baseball, and so far they've been doing this. They're 2 games over .500, a game back from Seattle, and they're not forcing anything. So I'm not really threatened by the potential of them taking first. I don't think it'll last, as they have so many pieces that just aren't working [Christian Walker, Brendan Rodgers, Yainer Diaz, a lot of overblown rotation arms], but you can tell this iteration of the team is just taking it kind of easy at this point. A Hinch/Baker team wouldn't have done that. 

I hope they continue at this pace. It'll be easier for me to manage. Though if Altuve suddenly shoots up to a home run lead or something and we start pretending he's MVP caliber, I'm gonna lose it.

Coming Tonight (?): Ironically a starter the Astros wanted this past offseason. But ultimately the D-Backs got him. 

All That Talk And Nothing to Say

 

It's not uncommon for the Houston Astros to start with a mediocre April record. In fact, it happens more often than not- the big thing for this team is getting hot around June and not letting up. But this time seems different. This time, with even more trusted players gone, and even more pitchers hurt, it just feels like the Astros that remain really can't match up.

Here's the big stat: there are only two Astros hitters that currently have a Batting Runs Better Than Average figure in the positives. They are Chas McCormick, who's hitting .318 in 22 at-bats, and Isaac Paredes, who's hitting .245 with 13 RBIs. Everybody else has negative hitting figures. Yainer Diaz, Christian Walker, Jake Meyers, Yordan Alvarez, Cam Smith...even Jose Altuve, whose defensive mishaps have given him a -0.3 WAR to start the season. Jeremy Pena, hitting .255 with 11 RBIs, has a 0 batting figure. You take Bregman and Tucker out of the equation and it's clear how many guys are simply average hitters. It hurts even more with Jeremy Pena being literally average. They farmed and brought him up to succeed Correa, and for him to just sort of putter by on his defense and base running isn't what they wanted.

Where this team still succeeds is with young pitching, which definitely helps considering they're still without McCullers, Garcia, Javier and France, and now Spencer Arrighetti is missing some time. They're always gonna be able to rely on Framber Valdez I think, the guy might be one of the most consistent hurlers around. What has helped is Hunter Brown's incredible start, going 4-1 with 40 Ks and a 1.22 ERA, culminating in a 1.7 WAR. Whatever struggles Brown has had in the past seems to be in the rearview, and he's giving the team confidence where there could have been panic. Even Hayden Wesneski, who struggled for years in Chicago, is more confident here, with a 3.86 ERA in 5 games. Ryan Gusto has also been a great piece, finally debuting after 5 years in the minors: he's 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA filling in for Arrighetti. And plus, this has been a much better season for Josh Hader, finally seeming like his old self with a 0.69 ERA and 7 saves already.

So...they're not allowing a ton of runs, but they're also not hitting. Which has never really been an issue with them. Even through rough starts they'd still manage one-dimensional power stuff. But together the team is hitting .231 with only 21 home runs. And you're seeing Springer, Bregman, Tucker, even organizational pieces like Teoscar Hernandez, all doing way better elsewhere. This was always how things could end up if they kept playing the way they did, and the realization could set in if the slump continues. It may not, as the team always finds the moment to start hitting to specifically spite me, but this may be the team that fails where every other one succeeded.

Coming Tomorrow- FOUR HOME RUNS IN ONE GAME. 

The New Abnormal

 

Year two of the Joe Espada era in Houston and it seems that the lightning just keeps getting out of the bottle.

There are still several key players left from the Championship/competitive teams. Framber Valdez is still a terrific ace, nailing both of his 2025 starts so far. Jose Altuve, platinum sombrero game aside, is hitting well and continuing his high power numbers. Bryan Abreu is still a key relief piece. Yordan Alvarez is still a winning DH choice. But it's shockingly few, honestly. With Tucker, Verlander, Bregman, Pressly, Urquidy and now Singleton all gone, even if this is very much in the same vein as previous Astros teams, the thrill seems to be diminished. Still having Javier, McCullers, Garcia and France out also dilutes the appeal.

To give you an idea, Yordan Alvarez, for the first time basically ever, has gotten off to a poor start. In 24 at-bats he has 3 hits, 4 RBIs...and no home runs. Obviously these things take time, he could be power-hitting again in no time, but it's unusual. The man doesn't go cold. Same with Jeremy Pena, he's only hitting .130, despite 2 home runs. Not only are both corner infield additions, Paredes and Walker, struggling at the plate, but even Cam Smith, the can't-miss 2024 draft pick they got for Tucker, has struggled since his big debut. 

And this is a team that has always found a way to hit...but when you let your best contact hitters, like Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, George Springer, Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel all leave, you're left with...mediocre contact hitters. Jake Meyers can only do so much. He's not Kyle Tucker. Not having a Kyle Tucker obviously hurts this team, because unlike with Pena taking over for Correa, they didn't have anybody close. Their idea of a contact hitting outfielder now is...Jose Altuve. And defensively that could be going a TON better, as literally ANYBODY could have told you. 

The pitching well is also letting up a little, with Blanco, Arrighetti and Wesneski struggling through early starts, and even Josh Hader still not being as perfect as he used to be during this Houston stretch. There are cracks in the armor. Finally. The Astros had a tremendous run, won 2 rings, and were always good. And now they're...fine. They're probably going to compete this year, and may still make the playoffs. But I don't see this as a team who can waltz to the end again like they did in 2022. We already have the Dodgers for that right now. 

The Astros have gotten over rough starts before. But a lot of these Astros haven't. So we'll see if they can figure out what the last 7 or so teams have.

Coming Tomorrow- A terrific young player who got a ton richer this week.