Its Barest Essentials

 

The 3D chess it took for the Diamondbacks to trade Merrill Kelly, then bring him back alongside the two pitching prospects they got for him, buy Nolan Arenado for a low price to ensure that St. Louis was the problem, sign Eduardo Rodriguez knowing he won't be great immediately but he will be great eventually, and pick up Jonathan Loiasiga at the exact time he figures out how to stay healthy. After years of just being too late, or too early, or not enough...have the Arizona Diamondbacks somehow figured out how to make the playoffs again?

I mean, nobody said it couldn't be done, but after the 2024 and 2025 playoff attempts fell short, it was looking like the 2023 run was extremely flukey. Not that the pieces from that team didn't remain, and weren't still active, but the atrophy was clear. Moreno struggled to stay healthy, Gallen and Kelly's full seasons eventually took their toll, the bullpen got old, Brandon Pfaadt didn't develop laterally, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. didn't fully showcase the 2023 numbers after the fact. But this season, there's been enough spark to convince people there's something here. Carroll, Perdomo and Marte never really worried anyone, but Gabriel Moreno's having another terrific season, hitting .309 with 7 homers and 36 RBIs in 79 games. I think we all blinked and he was hitting .300, thanks to some great work the last couple months. Carroll has 15 homers and 49 RBIs, and still has the speed to leg out all those triples. Ryan Waldschmidt seems to be sinking in as an everyday OF option, and Jorge Barrosa seems to be the answer in center for now. It's clear they're still a few pieces away from truly chasing the competition, but the formula's working. Before the break they swept the Dodgers, something the Padres can never do when given the opportunity. Maybe there's something here.

If so, this month may not even be fully indicative of the team's output, as the rotation's pretty banged up at the moment. In a week or so they'll get Mike Soroka back, and sometime later Gallen and Burnes will return. But even now, Rodriguez is driving the ghost shift, and both Kohl Drake and Mitch Bratt have been effective filling in for the usual guys. Maybe they'll be cannon fodder if the D-Backs want a more permanent answer for the stretch run, but it's nice they're keeping things moving. But even with a depleted rotation, the team's hitting, the bullpen's strong, there's more youth mobility than there was before, and there's even room for the ill-fated Max Kepler Redemption Campaign.

It's way too soon to tell if the D-Backs' current holding of the wild card spot will stand for the rest of the season. The Cardinals also want it, the Padres also want it, the Marlins want it a little and I believe the Padres might also have wanted it at some point. It's never a simple wild card race for the D-Backs, and they'll need to outlast their previous incarnations and power through despite oncoming intimidation. If this team can keep a surge lasting this long, it can happen. I just still can't tell if they're that team anymore.

Coming Tomorrow- The single flashiest player in baseball, and in the perfect city for him.

A Decade Indoors

 

Considering that I always saw him as the young, fresh face that got traded for Jean Segura, it's wild to me that Ketel Marte's been in the league for a decade, and is now in his tenth season in Phoenix. This D-Backs team is deceptively young, it's wild that they have people who've been here over 5 years, or over 10 years, and are still good.

Marte's actually put together a pretty damn good career for himself. A cumulative 37.8 WAR, a career .822 OPS, 3 80+ RBI seasons, a power bat that shows up every so often and a .280 average. I don't think he's a future Hall of Famer or anything, but he is one of the most consistent players in his league, and a very steady guy to have around. The closest thing to a down period Marte's had was an injury-plagued 2021 followed by a still-not-100% 2022. But from 2023 on he's routinely been one of the best all-around players in the game, keeping the D-Backs in the conversation and meshing well with new stars like Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo. He's the guy you want to stick around, even if he's less in the category of 'elite' and more in the category of 'underratedly good'. 

Right now Marte is hitting .267 with an .810 OPS, 17 homers and 54 RBIs. For his standards, it's good if imperfect. It took a little longer for Marte's season to get going than usual, and while he does lead the team in homers and RBIs, it's a less all-around performance than usual. Compared to Carroll, who's good at everything right now, and is tripling all over the place. Marte is 32, and he's got 4 years left on the contract after this one, and he's very much still in his prime, but the time has come for the new breed to take over, and Carroll, Perdomo and Moreno are very much that.

What's troubling, though, is the lack of a next step after them. So far this season, the D-Backs have called up Jose Fernandez, Ryan Waldschmidt, LuJames Groover, Tommy Troy and Adrian Del Castillo....and none of them have worked. The same schtick every time, too. 'LOOK AT THIS GUY, HE'S ABOUT TO BE SO GOOD, GET READY', he hits .182 in 2 weeks, back to the minors, then the next one. Waldschmidt and Fernandez have promise, of the bunch, but it wasn't sustainable. If a 34-year-old Ildemaro Vargas is a better 1B bat than you, you're not ready yet. The rotation youth is similar. They tried Mitch Bratt, it didn't work. They are trying Jose Cabrera, he's been decent in three starts but not revolutionary. Kelly and Gallen are tired, Pfaadt might not be the answer, and it can't just be down to Rodriguez and Burnes next year. 

As good as this core can be, I'm still very worried about long term solutions, because none have shown up this year. And remember, this is a team with Druw Jones in its farm system. Remember him? He's still in double-A, playing very okay. A Rockies-esque 'stop and wait for better prospects' strategy might have to be in order very soon.

Coming Tomorrow: I reckon Canada's kinda sad their World Cup adventure ended so early, but at least they've got this guy to look forward to for a while. 

The Man Who Wasn't There [and Then Suddenly Was]

 

I think if you wanted to summarize 2020s pitching trends, for better or worse, you couldn't do much better than examining the career of Eduardo Rodriguez. He's been in the league since 2015, and has had some terrific seasons under his belt, including one that resulted in a World Series ring for Boston. This year he's having another nice year, with a 6-2 record and a 2.45 ERA in 15 starts. But something that's always been true with Rodriguez is that once he gives you a grade-a full season...the next year's probably a wash.

And that's the issue with pitching right now, the hard-throwing, all-or-nothing stuff is not sustainable, and ensures some guys are only good every other year. In many cases it means injuries every so often. In Rodriguez's case, the injuries are rare but the stinky in-between years of partial health despite making all the starts are there in their place. Last year for instance, Rodriguez had a 5.02 ERA despite making 29 starts and getting 154 innings. 2022, right when he signed the Tigers deal, was another off, slightly injured year that even included that bit where Rodriguez went MIA midyear. Rodriguez won 19 games in 2019, then missed all of 2020, came back and won 13, then went on his rampage in Detroit. The way he pitches, despite the highs, cannot sustain consistent, consecutive success. 

It's even more evident when Rodriguez is succeeding in the year that Gallen, Kelly, Pfaadt and Nelson are all wiped out because they've been on since 2022. So, those guys are either slumping or hurt, Rodriguez is handling the big games, Mike Soroka is too but...he's not throwing sustainably either, and after a terrific start, HE'S gonna be missing time. And remember, Corbin Burnes is already out this half, and might not even be back til late July. So now the goal is to try and find people who aren't too overexerted to pitch...and not overexert them by making them pitch. 

It wasn't like this in 1978, and I wasn't even alive then.

So I guess the pitching thing is gonna make it harder for the D-Backs to catch LA, because this sort of thing never happens to the Dodgers in a way that wrecks their chances. A shame, cause Carroll, Marte, Moreno, Perdomo and Arenado are all having great years. The bench is becoming a bit worrying though, and the young guys that should be providing depth really aren't. Ryan Waldschmidt and Jose Fernandez didn't have MLB staying power, Lawlar seems to be hurt yet again, Tommy Troy is more unassuming than anything and LuJames Groover hasn't done anything yet. It's half a team, and they're hitting more than the Padres, but without Soroka, and with Kelly and Gallen still struggling, I'm not sure how much longer they'll stay in second. 

I think this is just an unlucky team. They honestly were one Eduardo Rodriguez from squeezing into a wild card spot the last few years. Hopefully he doesn't go down again the next time they need him.

Coming Tonight: One of the most effective relief pitchers in baseball not named Mason Miller.

There's No 'F' in Utility

 

2026 has already been a great year for lifetime utility guys making a name for themselves when thrust into a starting role. From the jump, Mauricio Dubon's been excellent at shortstop, to the point where Ha-Seong Kim is practically a backup right now. Ezequiel Duran's been wonderful filling in for Corey Seager, and his clutch and contact abilities are helping out the Rangers quite a bit. Oswald Peraza and Jorbit Vivas essentially have starting jobs right now, Jose Caballero made quite the impact covering for Anthony Volpe, Tristans Peters and Gray are finding everyday jobs, the list goes on. But right at the top of that list is Ildemaro Vargas, because it's simultaneously true that nobody could have seen his rise coming...and yet his rise was honestly bound to happen.

Since 2017, Ildemaro Vargas has bounced around as one of those likable infield role-player guys who's never a star but always does what he's supposed to. He was with the Diamondbacks for years, played for a bunch of midwest teams in the early 2020s, found a niche as a utility guy with the Nats then returned to Arizona. Last year he was really impressive in a swing role, hitting .270 in 38 games, while continuing to be an above-average upgrade in the infield. Heading into the 2026 season, the D-Backs found themselves without their Opening Day 1B options [Pavin Smith and Carlos Santana both got hurt], so the majority of the reps there went to Vargas. 

So far, Vargas has become an everyday, reliable guy for this D-Backs team this year. He's hitting .291 with 7 homers, 37 RBIs, 59 hits [tied for most on the team with Marte and Carroll, whoever they are] and a 1.5 WAR. His 7 homers are already more than he's ever hit in a season. This is probably not a long term answer, as they kind of want Jose Fernandez to be that, but it's working right now. It's also just a nice perk that Vargas as working in an area that wasn't expected to be a big source of consistent production from this team. Like they banked on Corbin Carroll having a great year, Ketel Marte having a great year, Perdomo and Moreno to do their thing. I don't know if they banked on a bounce-back from Nolan Arenado either, but there he goes, hitting .270 with 8 homers and 28 RBIs [one more homer than Carroll]. 

I think if Gallen and Kelly weren't having buffer years, they'd have a chance to take out San Diego for 2nd. Zac Gallen has a 5.16 ERA, and is once again looking worn down. Same with Kelly, who's got a 5.08 ERA after missing a few weeks. It's a good thing that Eduardo Rodriguez and Mike Soroka are having excellent years, but, again, it falls into the issue with pitching right now where everyone throws so hard that nobody's good every year anymore. The D-Backs are balancing Rodriguez and Soroka's on years with Gallen and Kelly's off-years, plus a rehab year from Corbin Burnes. Forty years ago you just kept going ahead without having to plan for this kind of stuff. 

I still think the D-Backs are a nice under the radar threat in the NL this year. I don't know if they're a playoff team yet, cause the last few D-Backs teams have arguably been playoff caliber but just haven't made it. But they have a lot right now that's getting me excited, and the random resurgence of Ildemaro Vargas is honestly one of them.

Coming Tonight: He got hurt. Missed a season. Came back last spring training, got hurt, missed another season. And now he's back and pitching beautifully. 

The Bounce-Back Kids

 

The thing about Ildemaro Vargas's 2026 season so far is that you would think it would be precedented. We've seen surprise breakout seasons from thirtysomething utility men before. Remember Donovan Solano's Giants run? He'd been a Marlins background guy for years, got to SF, suddenly became a multifaceted hitter who, if the 2020 season had been full, MAY have been an All-Star. Remember Marco Scutaro taking off in Toronto and becoming an all-star second baseman...with the Giants [okay I'm sensing a theme here]? Remember Mark Loretta becoming indispensable in his mid30s with Boston? Jose Valentin as a Dodger? It's happened before, in many different ways.

But...Ildemaro Vargas's work so far feels different. He was always a fun utility guy to have around before. Y'know, he'd give you 90 games, play all four infield positions, maybe crack a surprise contact hit, do something cool. Now, through 34 games, Vargas has already topped his season totals in RBIs, home runs and average, and is nearly there with hits and total bases. He's hitting .333 with 7 homers and 31 RBIs, has a .549 SLG, and is one of the most important hitters in a D-Backs lineup that also features Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo. Somehow THIS GUY is the centerpiece of this lineup. And honestly, I'm 100% here for it. Cause even as a utility guy with Washington and Chicago and Arizona and Minnesota, he was still a lot of fun. Never a starter, but always a handy guy to have around. And now...he hits homers and is a decision-maker. Not for a bottom tier D-Backs team either, this team's in third and near .500.

Inexplicable comebacks does seem to be the theme of this D-Backs team. Guys who were thought unnecessary or unneeded coming in to seriously help things out. James McCann's still getting reps as backup catcher at 36. Michael Soroka and Eduardo Rodriguez are both having serious bounce-back years following injury-plagued high ERA years. Paul Sewald, despite a 4.41 ERA, has 10 saves and seems to be keeping the job. Jonathan Loiasiga seems to have outrun the injury bug and has a 3.12 ERA in his new home. Bizarrely, rumors of Nolan Arenado's decline seem to have been incorrect, as he's hitting .273 with 6 homers and 23 RBIs, better than his Cardinals numbers around this time last year. 

And let's not forget about the fact that Corbin Carroll is delivering yet another peak season, continuing his stellar run with a .278 average, 7 homers, 24 RBIs and a league-leading 4 triples. This is the kind of damage you want Carroll doing, and he's very much normalized his brand of production. He's still looking for his first career 100+ RBI year, but even a fourth-consecutive 30+ steal year or another 30+ homer year [30/30 v2??] would suffice at this point.

The D-Backs are very much playing for the middle of the pack. They don't have the pitching to really chase the Padres or Dodgers right now, but they have the hitting to spoil them and keep in the conversation. Merrill Kelly just had a wonderful start, so if he and Gallen turn things around, and if Burnes returns at peak condition eventually, they could be a surprise wild card factor. How about that? Granted, we've said this before and it hasn't happened, but those teams didn't have the .300-hitting stylings of Ildemaro Vargas, now did they?

Coming Tomorrow- He's in his early 30s, he primarily hits home runs, and he just got a lot of money. This could be a recipe for disaster. It could also be incredible. 

Before Our Very Eyes

 

The way things were looking last season, the Diamondbacks were likely gonna be sellers, start over a bit and see if Carroll and Burnes could make it long enough to see the next stage of the rebuild. The idea was that Kelly wasn't coming back, Gallen wasn't coming back, Marte was getting traded and the dream would be over soon. And then during the offseason, the D-Backs surprised everybody by not punting. Virtually no big pieces were traded. Merrill Kelly, broken as he may be now, was re-signed. And what's more, the D-Backs even got Nolan Arenado and Michael Soroka to pad the roster. 

And that led to a 3rd place, 15-12 start where you can not only see the Lovullo era still thriving, but the next steps beginning to lock into place.

Now, 1st base is already a wild twist, because logically it should be as simple as getting Pavin Smith to do it, but he's hurt. So Carlos Santana started the season as the primary 1st base option. Then he got hurt. And then...the single strangest 1B platoon of them all came along. Cause Ildemaro Vargas has somehow pulled a Donnie Barrels and reinvented himself as an everyday player, hitting .367 with 6 homers and 20 RBIs. Yes, ILDEMARO VARGAS is doing this. I'm just as shocked. And the other guy playing 1st is rookie Jose Fernandez, who hit 2 home runs in his first game, then didn't hit anymore until this past week. 

I'm...dumbfounded, honestly. Two solutions out of absolutely nowhere that were like Plan C and D. And also throw in Nolan Arenado still being decent at third after Jordan Lawlar was moved to the outfield to make room for him [only to get hurt]. Arenado is hitting .286 with 4 homers and 14 RBIs. It's not as pretty as it used to be, but it's more of a batting exclamation point than, say, Evan Longoria in a similar role. Throw in Carroll, Marte and Perdomo doing their usual stuff and you've got a strong lineup somehow. Only real weak spot is catcher with Moreno injured, but James McCann's doing what he can I suppose.

This team's also lucky they caught Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez and Mike Soroka on the upswing from their respective injury comebacks, cause they've made for a great starting three. The hope is that Corbin Burnes comes back unharmed in a little while and someone, hopefully Brandon Pfaadt, calms down to provide a steadier fifth choice. 

The D-Backs are surprising people so far, including themselves. We'll see how far they're able to take this, but if the stars, like Carroll especially, can stay hot they definitely have a chance to stay embedded in the NL West picture.

Coming Tonight: I always found it very fitting that right after Manny Machado was traded, the Orioles' next savior, Cedric Mullins, arrived. Well right after Mullins was dealt, they called up this guy, and now he's surprising people.

Just Long Enough to Come Back Around

 

The thing about Michael Soroka is that it was always a possibility that he would come back around to pitching like he did in 2019. That was always something that could happen, even if injuries, general struggles and control issues commenced ever since. It was just a matter of who would be the last team not to lose their patience. The Braves got tired of waiting, the White Sox, the Nationals, arguably the Cubs. So when the Diamondbacks signed the 28-year-old to a 1-year deal, it was as risky as it was for everyone else. Maybe it happens. Maybe it doesn't. 

But when Michael Soroka's first start as a Diamondback broke Randy Johnson's record for the most strikeouts in a debut performance for Arizona...I think the D-Backs felt a lot better about themselves. Soroka is clearly high risk/high reward, but the reward sometimes can be sheer dominance. And it seems that Soroka is still capable of dominance. 

The Diamondbacks have gotten lucky in that respect a few times over this year. Aside from Soroka, the D-Backs have gotten two strong, scoreless starts from Eduardo Rodriguez, who struggled through injuries the first two years of the contract. They've gotten flawless work from Jonathan Loiasiga, who struggled to stay healthy in New York. They called up Jose Fernandez just in time for him to hit 2 homers in his debut. Even Zac Gallen, who's struggled the last few years, is returning to his former glory. The theme of this D-Backs team right now is 'we're alright with waiting, as long as what we're waiting for is worth it.' Soroka, Rodriguez and eventually Corbin Burnes will make up a backbone of this rotation, and it took the team not giving up on any of them. It'd be easy to give up on E-Rod, considering they just gave up on Jordan Montgomery. But the instincts to this team are still right, even if they're not blooming immediately.

This is the same team that has refused to trade Ketel Marte, didn't worry when Corbin Carroll had a hamate bone injury, allowed Merrill Kelly to leave only to re-sign him anyway, and are now stomaching yet another setback for Jordan Lawlar. They've got a plan. They just know it doesn't need to kick in immediately. And so they can enjoy the spoils even if, logically, they're playing for 2nd or 3rd.

So one of the spoils is this current matchup against the Braves. Michael Soroka is facing his former team, who is forced to start Bryce Elder due to trading away too many of their GOOD homegrown options. And as I write this he's been really strong. Only a handful of hits, an earned run, keeping it in the park. Bryce Elder, meanwhile, can't even make the easy out if it's handed to him. It'll be a cool upset if it happens, and it proves that the D-Backs have a surprising amount of early momentum. 

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically another former Braves starting pitcher they let go. This one's had a bit more consistent success, though.

The Art of Running it Back

 

Spring Training is one of those times of extreme optimism. Everything's good, everything's promising, cause no games have been played yet. It could be anybody's year, and that includes us. Right now, there are 30 valid storylines being concocted towards a championship outcome, and since it's still February there's really no ruling out any of them. And you can make the joke of 'well, we can rule out the Rockies', and yeah, probably. But the Pirates, A's and White Sox are usually counted out and even they have more going on this year. 

But it's easier to look like a new team when you've made substantial moves towards a championship. The Pirates got some genuine big pieces this year, for once. The White Sox got Murakami plus a TON of solid options at multiple positions. The A's actually put money into the roster and have a team for the next few years. If your plan is just to 'run it back', then you're gonna get people saying 'they don't want to win'. And running it back can still be a valid way forward, the Dodgers mostly ran it back last year and it did well for them. But certain fanbases demand some effort. The Phillies fans by me are somewhat infuriated that the plan to fix an aging core is to simply run it back, forgetting that A.) the team strengthened its bullpen and has at least three organizational cornerstones hitting the majors this year, B.) they got to keep Schwarber's offense and Realmuto's defense, and C.) they don't have to be stuck with either Bo Bichette's defense or Nick Castellanos's anything. The general plan is 'run it back' but they still fixed what killed the team. 

However, not everyone is so lucky. Some teams just decide to run it back and insist they're still moving forward.

The Arizona Diamondbacks want the big takeaway from this offseason to be, 'see, we kept Ketel Marte, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen'. Forgetting that literally all three were highly sought after by other teams. The D-Backs were actively shopping Marte, even coming close to a deal with Seattle that backfired when the M's refused to part with Cole Young. Perhaps knowing that trading their young, upstart 2nd baseman to Arizona for a veteran rounding a top tier year didn't work well for them in the past, so there was no use getting Ketel Marte if they'd be giving up another, younger Ketel Marte. Kelly returning to AZ was a surprise, and Gallen came back only after several teams, including the Cubs and Orioles, balked at the suggested number he had in mind. There is a universe where the D-Backs lose all three players, and possibly even Perdomo as well [he was reportedly shopped too] and still have to play the 'we're still running it back' game. 

In addition to the three players the D-Backs kept that they almost didn't, the only real players the team brought on were 'let's see what they have left' guys. Mike Soroka keeps being brought onto teams with the belief that what was glimpsed in 2018 could return, but we're still waiting for that. Carlos Santana will be 40 this year, and he's almost completely lost his ability to hit for power. And Nolan Arenado...no one is quite sure what he has left. He wasn't *terrible* for the Cardinals last season, but it was the most human year of his career, and the most injury-plagued one too. His defense is still above average, but that bat isn't what it was, and unless the soon-to-be-35-year-old has something else up his sleeve, he'll be a high priced defensive upgrade that will exist to keep Jordan Lawlar from starting [again]. Arenado is no longer the boost that he was, and he may have more in common with Evan Longoria in 2023...though Longo had a better team around him then.

The D-Backs running it [diamond]back in a year where the Dodgers are still expected to win the division and the Padres and Giants are still expected to compete is an odd move. It's better than fully giving up, and I think they know they've been right there the past few years and could boost over, but I'm not sure if it'll work this time.

The Astros, meanwhile, have a similar 'run it back' strategy even if some substantial changes have been made. Jesus Sanchez, a crucial deadline pickup from last year, was dealt for Joey Loperfido, and Tatsuya Imai was brought in as a starting option. However, the issue with running it back from 2025 is that this year, the majority of the contingency plans are in camp together with the people they subbed in for with injuries. Which means Brandon Walter, Spencer Arrighetti and Cristian Javier are competing with Jason Alexander, A.J. Blubaugh and Colton Gordon for rotation spots, in addition to newcomers Tatsuya Imai and Mike Burrows, plus preexisting locks Hunter Brown, Lance McCullers and...wait, what? How...that's like 10 people fighting for 5 spots. 

Like, I get the idea of preparing for injuries by putting in contingency starters, but you're now ensuring like 5 other people who are MLB-ready will either be doing long relief work or starting in Triple-A. Mike Burrows was doing fairly well in Pittsburgh, he gets traded to Houston and now we're not even sure if he's gonna make the team. I actually think he's got a nice shot to make the rotation, but then who doesn't? Is Jason Alexander getting cut? This was supposed to be the summer of George!

More confusing still is what the Astros plan on doing with their lineup. Last year at the deadline they traded for Carlos Correa, opting for a 2016 reunion in the wake of Isaac Paredes's injury. Paredes eventually came back and they traded off for the postseason push...of a postseason that didn't actually happen for this team. This year, the plan seems to be starting Correa at third...which, again was only due to convenience last year, then starting Paredes at DH, and...for some reason getting Yordan Alvarez to play left field everyday. I don't think that's sustainable. You're saying you'd rather have Alvarez's defense than Paredes's, which I don't completely agree with. If anything, Paredes should get more reps at first, as Christian Walker may be on the downslope.

It illuminates the problem with running it back, because if you're running it back with everyone who was there last time, without, like...letting people go and standing down the roster to an actual manageable unit, then it's gonna be chaos! Then deserving people aren't gonna be able to start, they're gonna ask to be traded and the league opinion of the organization is gonna go down further, even after the cheating. It just makes no sense to me, at least at this stage of the spring. I do know the Astros have a way of working things out, even if it doesn't look possible on paper. So even with all this they could still compete this year. 

This is why I'm not a GM. I'm way too pragmatic about it. There's so many moves that don't make sense to me because I only see it from the outside perspective. So maybe running it back works for one of these teams, or maybe both. Or, y'know...I'm right, and then some team can hire me to be assistant GM. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Diamondbacks

 

Okay. So here is how I would sum up the Diamondbacks' 2025 season, and it's through Brandon Pfaadt. Brandon Pfaadt, one of the team's most populous starters, finished the season with a record of 13-9. Considering how meaningless the win stat is now that people leave midway through the fifth inning, it's very good that someone, even for a team just a hair under .500, could get to 13 wins. But otherwise, Pfaadt's season was a failure, with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.330 WHIP. How could something look so good on the surface but be so bad at the core? Well...this team found a way.

Zac Gallen started all 33 games, but it was his most wobbly material so far. Ketel Marte, Gerardo Perdomo, Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez had incredible seasons, but the pitching could not keep this team in the race, especially without a full season from Corbin Burnes. And thus they sold at the deadline, wound up in fourth, and still seem to be shopping Marte. I do think this team still has a future as a competitor, but man that division is tough.

As for Pfaadt, his fundamentals aren't bad, and he still struck out 147, second behind Gallen, but this just wasn't a very good year for him. Thankfully he's still young.

2026 Prediction: Less wins, but a much lower ERA. Bounce-back on the horizon.

The D-Backs also have Eduardo Rodriguez, who, once again, failed to get anywhere near the heights of his Red Sox tenure. He appeared in 29 games, but went 9-9 with a 5.02 ERA and 143 Ks. Back in Detroit, you'd stomach a bad season from Rodriguez knowing a good one was perhaps along the horizon, but I don't know if the bungee theory really works anymore. 

2026 Prediction: Well...he's got two more years left on this contract...and it would help immensely if one of them wasn't complete ass. Perhaps that's next. 

Pavin Smith has remained one of the handier unsung pieces of these Diamondbacks teams, and this year he was a great help as a regular DH. He hit .258 with 28 RBIs and 8 homers, amounting to a .797 OPS. Smith has always been a good clutch guy, and this year was no anomaly. Sadly he missed a ton of time at the end of the year due to injuries.

2026 Prediction: Sets a new personal record for home runs, which shouldn't be too difficult, as his current mark is 11.

And after Suarez was traded to Seattle, fill-in 2nd base guy Blaze Alexander moved over to third to fill the gap there, and did honestly pretty well for himself. Offensively he's only a .230 hitter with the occasional contact perk, but defensively he was an improvement over the more power-prone Suarez. It's looking like he'll be the answer there going forward.

2026 Prediction: A much better season at the plate, enough to ensure he stays around in that spot in the depth chart.

Coming Tomorrow- Unsurprisingly there are, in fact, a handful of Dodgers remaining. 

A for Effort

 

There's a lot of playoff spots still up for grabs as I write this, and by that I mean just one in each league and a lot of seeds bobbing around. You can still see playoff cases for the Mets, Reds, Guardians, and even the Astros if you squint a little. Really, the only elimination we might see in Game 161 might be the Arizona Diamondbacks, which, at the very least came one game earlier than it did last year.

I will applaud the D-Backs for making it a lot more exciting than it could have been this year. By the end of July this team looked pretty dead, lying around 4th in an already-competitive division, pawning away Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez and Merrill Kelly, and backtracking from even a still-commendable 2024. Carroll, Perdomo and Ryne Nelson continue to be valid answers for this team, but the infrastructure that made them a World Series team in 2023 with 2 and a half valid starters seems to have fallen off. The players that seemed so close to getting it before, like Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Brandon Pfaadt and honestly Lourdes Gurriel, have backslid into mediocre, weighty pieces. Even someone like Gabriel Moreno, who is a great fit at catcher, is gone for like half the year and they have to start guys like Jose Herrera and James McCann.

And yet for the last two months, especially September, they were right there in the Wild Card race, complicating things for the Reds and Mets. They were never lapping anyone, but they were embedding themselves right in the action, just enough to get people nervous. During this period, Corbin Carroll attained a 30-30 season, Geraldo Perdomo obtained the top WAR in the NL and the possibility of MVP votes, Ketel Marte rode a last swell into a 25+ homer year after a devastating run in his personal life, Zac Gallen reached 13 wins and somehow second-year infielder Blaze Alexander became one of the most crucial contact pieces on the team. How the D-Backs couldn't put something like this together throughout the season but came through with it late is beyond me.

I think it points to the fact that the team is shedding a lot of the pieces that made them competitive in 2023 in an attempt to strengthen, and get younger, for future runs. Obviously Carroll, Perdomo, Moreno and Pfaadt will be big pieces of this team's future, and will remain as the numerous rookie guys get brought up [Druw Jones may be on the way]. In terms of the middle pieces like Alexander, Ryne Nelson, Tim Tawa and Jordan Lawlar, it remains to be seen whether or not they're long term pieces or just guys that tided the team over during a down year. Lawlar's yet to really excel in the bigs, either it's coming next year or it's not coming.

The point is, the Dodgers, Padres and Giants will no doubt be competitive next year, and the D-Backs, even with the possibility of Corbin Burnes returning, still are expected to be a fourth place team. If they can build their way past that, they'll be in business, but this year points to this being a slower process than expected. Which amounts for occasional pops in excitement, but they're gonna need to be more than pops if they want to follow up on the promises they made in 2023. 

Coming Tomorrow- The White Sox didn't know what to do with him in the infield, but thankfully the Red Sox sure did.

Please Mr. Milkman

 

For the second year in a row, any promise of a Diamondbacks dynasty ran by the guys that made a World Series in 2023 has been quietly extinguished by a rotten luck year in a tough division. I'm beginning to worry that Corbin Carroll in Arizona and Joe Burrow in Cincinnati are gonna be feeling very similar things soon.

It's not without a lack of effort, of course, and this D-Backs team still has Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Blaze Alexander, Gabriel Moreno and Ryne Nelson playing very well for them. But a ton of the backing pieces aren't even at replacement level. The depth just wasn't there this year, and having a bunch of the stars get injured didn't help very much either. It sucks to say, but Corbin Burnes getting hurt 2 months in definitely destroyed most of this team's postseason chances, because then they all started going down like dominoes. They signed Burnes, Rodriguez and Montgomery to properly arm this rotation, and none of them really did what they were supposed to. If Montgomery has a comeback year for the Brewers next year it'll be the funniest thing ever.

It makes it even sadder that Zac Gallen, for the second year in a row, just hasn't been as consistent as he was when the D-Backs were up-and-coming. He's made all his starts, but he's currently 11-14 with a 4.84 ERA, far from the level-headed dominance of the early part of the decade. He does lead the team in strikeouts with 157, but that wasn't gonna be the issue. Gallen and Pfaadt have had strong fundamentals but this team has not been better than its adversaries, and thus even great pitchers who make all their starts are getting left out to dry and coming back with 5 ERAs. Pfaadt is 13-8, and he still has an ERA over 5. 

This team is currently looking at a .250 collective average, which isn't bad, and a 4.50 collective ERA. Any attempt to make this team stronger did not work because the people that were put in position to aid this team just couldn't commit. And thus, it now looks even more difficult for the D-Backs to compete again in the future with all this progress set back. It could always turn around, and it very well might, but this year did nothing to ease the worries of fans caught off guard by last year's eleventh-hour missed opportunity.

Coming Tonight: A guy who's spent 4 years with the Rays, which, for the Rays is like 12.

Lourdes Help Us

 

So, uh...the Diamondbacks are 13-7 in August. They've had three three-game winning spells, then a four-game one that was just upended by a Reds win. They're in third in the NL West, ahead of the Giants by a game [the Giants had a nice weekend as well]. I'm not particularly thinking anything's going to happen, but it's been nicer to watch than a lot of this D-Backs season.

Even without Suarez, the power production is still palpable. Corbin Carroll's headed for a 30-homer year, Ketel Marte's headed for a 25-homer year. And Lourdes Gurriel, despite some inconsistency, has been producing a lot more recently. He's at 76 RBIs on the season. You're also seeing a lot more input from Blaze Alexander, who's been a backup til very recently. Suarez went, then Alexander got a job, and he's got 5 homers and 15 RBIs in 43 games. Could be the guy next year. I think the key to this team, even as the rotation has diminished, is grouping together a bunch of guys with high OPSs who can slap the ball around even if it's not pretty. You've got Carroll and Marte being on top of their game, and everything else that produces is just good enough right now.

But yes, it is a bit of an issue not having Merrill Kelly or Corbin Burnes in this rotation, cause you have Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez picking up starts and doing their best. You occasionally get a good start from either, and Pfaadt has 12 wins, but that 4.95 ERA tells the real story. Zac Gallen is 9-13 with a 5.18 ERA, and it's clear that he's pooped from holding up the team for the last 5 years. Ryne Nelson is doing well but if your best guy is Ryne Nelson it's not great. They've thrown Nabil Crismatt into a starting role because Anthony Desclafani got hurt. That's where we're at. 3 years ago they had all these guys that could get called up, guys like Drey Jameson and Tommy Henry. They have Yilber Diaz in the minors, they can start games. Are we really at the point in the season that it still feels worth it to not have kids up?

That's honestly the problem with this D-Backs team: I do not see the immediate next steps. They're convinced Jordan Lawlar is the next big piece of this team, but he's done nothing at the MLB level. Beyond him, I have no idea who the next foundational piece to keep this team alive would be. Druw Jones won't be up for another couple years at this rate. Tommy Troy could be next year, but is he just a seat filler or is he THE guy? Same with A.J. Vukovich, who'd be a great source of power despite owing to the same 'light on defense' problem a lot of this team has.

For now, I guess they hold onto the production stuff and hope they can build a decent enough team around it next year. Cause this one didn't do the trick.

Coming Tonight: One of the true stars of the Red Sox team that silenced the Yanks for the better part of the weekend.

So Much for that Gameplan..

 

The luck just seemed to run out at the wrong time for the Diamondbacks. They went into this season looking at their best rotation yet, consisting of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Corbin Burnes, Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez. Two of those guys have been lost to season-ending injuries, one has been struggling since last year's injury, one has been battered down more than usual due, probably, to last year's injury, and the other is pitching for the team that beat them in the World Series 2 years ago. And one of the injured guys got traded too. Getting to a World Series with 3 working pitchers is one thing, but now they have like one and a half working pitchers, and it's not getting them out of fourth.

With all that in mind, Ryne Nelson has saved the D-Backs's ass this year. Ryne Nelson came in as a swingman with the possibility of long relief, then once Eddie took more time than needed he was plugged in as a starter and now he's pretty much the only starter the team can trust. Nelson has a 3.20 ERA in 24 appearances, 14 of them starts, and he's 6-3 with 89 Ks throughout. Nelson is just a dominant, innings-eating guy who teams just haven't had much luck getting past. And in a year where Zac Gallen's 9-12 with a 5.31 ERA, you need a guy like that. The current brand of D-Backs starter is someone who's statistically efficient but can't win games or keep down runs. Brandon Pfaadt's like that as well, he's somehow 12-7 with 103 Ks, but he's got a 5.03 ERA and 1.346 WHIP. It's a good line if you like shaking your head a lot. Rodriguez is tanking, Tommy Henry, the next-nearest starting option, is hurt, and so now Anthony DeSclafani's out there every 6 days hoping his arm doesn't fall apart. He's been fine, but like in a year with the promise of Corbin Burnes and Jordan Montgomery, ending up with 'well all we have is Anthony DeSclafani' isn't a very satisfying outcome.

I mean, damn if the hitters aren't still trying to move mountains. Corbin Carroll leads the league in triples this year with 14. Geraldo Perdomo leads the team in WAR with a 3.7. Lourdes Gurriel's been heating up in the past week. Ketel Marte's still hitting .290 and is on the way to a 25-homer year. The one silver lining about all the selling this team did is that they didn't sell the really important stuff. The D-Backs have enough of a lineup for next year that nobody's saying they're fully dead. They're not giving up on Corbin or Marte or Perdomo, at least not yet. If this same thing happens to them again next year, even with the possibility of more Burnes innings, then they'll have to see about that.

The D-Backs knew they were going into a tough year with such a competitive division, and I genuinely think that if the injuries hadn't have happened they'd be right there in the mix with the Giants and Padres. It's hard to compete without good pitching, though. 

Coming Tonight- World's most unlikely guy to become a power DH after 10 years.

Built to Last?

 

As I write this post, the Texas Rangers and the Arizona Diamondbacks have the exact same record, with 100 games played. 50-50. Exactly .500. The Rangers are in third, the D-Backs are in fourth, and they're both within 3 and 5 games of their respective playoff races. Not even two years ago these teams were good enough to meet in the World Series. There hasn't even been that much to really account for atrophy; all the young cores that brought these teams to October are still young, intact and thriving, and the marquee guys [Seager, deGrom and Garcia in Texas's case, Marte, Corbin and Gallen in Arizona's] are still with the team, and still relied upon. And yet...neither is really a league giant as much as they were in 2023.

The Rangers have just been unlucky. Last year everybody got injured. Not just all the pitchers [deGrom, Gray, Mahle, Bradford], but all the young position players that made the team exciting in the previous postseason. Evan Carter and Josh Jung got injured very soon into the season, then Wyatt Langford got hurt. Corey Seager had a phenomenal year and then he got hurt. And while that was enough to lighten expectations, it wasn't gonna completely kill them.

This year, though, has been wholly disappointing. Great seasons by Jacob deGrom, Nate Eovaldi, Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford feel like they're being wasted. Adolis Garcia hit 39 home runs in 2023, and now he's just got 13. I know he's one of those guys that can heat up late when you're not looking, but he's also 32, and even 7 seasons into his career I worry he's past his peak. Which is what happens when you keep developing players into their late 20s. What does help is that Garcia is still excellent defensively, but that's not why they kept him around. It's like signing Joc Pederson for his base-running, which was pretty much the only thing he was doing right before he got hurt. And now you're hearing that the Rangers might be shopping people, including deGrom. Which is kinda upsetting. 

The Diamondbacks have about as much of a reason to be disappointed, because that 2023 season was supposed to be the start of a dynasty. The stars aligned to give this team multiple young stars, like Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Gabriel Moreno and Zac Gallen. Perdomo might still be one of the best shortstops in the game, being not only an impressive defender but FINALLY coming alive at the plate this year. He's got 72 RBIs already, which is well on the way to not only top his previous season highs but also register as his first 100 RBI year. He's also about to eclipse his season hits mark and has already topped his season homers mark by soaring into double digits for the first time. Perdomo, like Carroll, is a great young player who's only getting better. 

Yet after emphasizing these youth pieces and framing the team around them last year, the D-Backs, despite a late push, missed the playoffs. And this year they're not looking like a favorite for a wild card spot either. While last year it was a matter of the tentpoles caving [Carroll, Kelly, Gallen and Moreno having weak years], this year the flaws are fully on display. This team's pitching just isn't good anymore. In 2023 you at least had three strong starters distracting from the fact that this was all they had, but now Gallen has a 5.40 ERA, Pfaadt has 10 wins and some big games but an ERA over 4, and Kelly's trying to stay ahead of things while being 36 and a year removed from an injury. Having Ryne Nelson helps, but this team brought on Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez and Corbin Burnes with the idea of having a fully formed, fully reliable rotation and they've all struggled with injuries ever since coming over. Rodriguez is healthy now but struggling yet again. Burnes was at least doing well, but when's he gonna be back? Next September? Will there be any point to those starts?

It sucks, because both of these teams have great managers, the organizations are well built and the stars are worth it. But the luck has not been what they've deserved. The D-Backs are actively shopping both Zac Gallen and Eugenio Suarez, and the Rangers are trying to do the same with deGrom. The idea is to lighten some load while continuing to compete somewhat, but how likely are these teams to get back on track after these two underwhelming years?

Coming Tomorrow- A guy with a big beard who pitches in a minor league stadium. 

When All Else Fails..

 

Ketel Marte has been on the Diamondbacks longer than anyone else, which is kind of hard to believe considering he's 31, and younger than a lot of major players for this team. He came over in 2017, in exchange for Jean Segura, blossomed into an All-Star 2nd baseman within two years, and has become a perennial MVP vote getter and league-wide hero. The acclaim for Marte is so beloved that after a White Sox fan heckled Marte during a game, the Sox not only banned the fan but immediately stood in solidarity with Marte. It's not like the Tommy Pham thing where he was being a punk, Marte plays the game right and some people just wanna be assholes. 

The amount that Marte has accumulated in this time is sneakily great. He's got a 32.4 WAR, 1199 hits, and a career .282 average, boosted by his current .313 average in the midst of another great season. Marte's thing is that he's had more 'alright' seasons than truly terrific ones, and that will ultimately keep him from definite enshrinement, but right now he's still elite.

And it's a good thing the Diamondbacks still have him, because this has been a season that has required his leadership. Several weeks ago, Corbin Burnes went down for the season. Earlier this week Corbin Carroll hit the IL. They also recently lost Gabriel Moreno, and will definitely be without Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk for a while. The team is above .500 but still in 4th in the NL West. The plan now is just to stay steady and outlast the competition, and the way to do that is continuing to provide a difference-maker even if it can't be Carroll or Burnes. Marte is one of those difference-makers, he has 15 homers and 32 RBIs. This team has a chance if more people are in that category.

At this stage, I feel like there's a case to be made that there are. The corners are both rocking excellent contact seasons: Eugenio Suarez leads the league with 67 RBIs, and his 25 homers ain't too shabby either. Josh Naylor, unsurprisingly, is still a very impressive contact hitter, he's hitting .307 with 10 homers and 53 RBIs. Geraldo Perdomo also has 53 RBIs, and I always forget how good of a hitter he can be. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., even on a weaker year, still has 41 RBIs. And you have to factor in Merrill Kelly, Ryne Nelson and Shelby Miller, who've stayed consistent despite the major pitching issues the team has faced. Those elements are working, and hopefully they stay strong. I think eventually Gallen will go on a tear, and I'm pretty sure Carroll will be back with a vengeance after the all-star break.

The Diamondbacks, even with everything stacked against them, still have a shot. It's still June, and they still can outhit a ton of teams. You can't completely count them out.

Coming Tonight: The Dodgers flipped him to get over their injury problem, and the guy they got for him added to it. The guy that got away has been pretty healthy though. 

Them's the Snakes

 

The Diamondbacks are a very puzzling team. Fundamentally they are good, and have some of the best players in the majors playing well for them, but they're a sub-.500 4th place team in a competitive division, 5 and a half games out from the nearest competitor, they just lost their best pitcher to Tommy John [the second starter they've lost to this in 2025], and they've been responsible for some of the most notorious losses of the past week. Brandon Pfaadt and the gang taking 12 batters and 8 runs to record an out? Yeah, that was them, care of the Nats. And that's just the one you heard about. 

Recently, the D-Backs have lost a game 10-1 to the Pirates, gotten cleaned out by the Reds 13-1, and got swept by the Cardinals on three straight 1-run games. The necessary precautions are being carried out, and Scott McGough, the scapegoat reliever, is off the team. But aside from sweeping the Braves due to the Braves having even worse luck than them for a second, the D-Backs are still kinda in freefall. After hitting .269 in May, the D-Backs are hitting .222 in June so far, and their defense is shockingly below-average, with only Ketel Marte and Tim Tawa looking like commendable defensive players. It's very good that Carroll, Marte, Naylor, Perdomo and Suarez are hitting, but the back half of the lineup drops off and can't really match up.

What is apparent is that the pitching is beginning to rebound from its 5ish ERA in May, and is driving the bus a little more in this stretch. Merrill Kelly, in the wake of Burnes's injury and Gallen's inconsistency, has become the default ace, and has been very strong, going 6-2 with a 3.43 ERA and 72 Ks. This is the sort of uniform quality Kelly was responsible for before his 2024 injury, and with everything else that's gone wrong for this rotation, it's important that he's back to where he was. Meanwhile, Gallen, Pfaadt and Rodriguez are all struggling, and Ryne Nelson is doing his best in the back half. This is not what the D-Backs had in mind going into this year, a rotation trying to keep up with itself, but because of all the overthrowing going on systematically, two of the team's best pitchers are hurt and two more are struggling to recover from their own injuries. The good news is that Justin Martinez is back, and looks good, while Shelby Miller has been a pretty strong RP1 presence. It's not perfect, and it's barely good, but there's been a palpable improvement.

The Diamondbacks have an impossible situation and are just trying to make the best of it. There's enough great seasons that they'll be able to come away from 2025 with some dignity, but given the amount that's got wrong it's a wonder they'll have their dignity to begin with.

Coming Tomorrow- A DH for a team that, until recently, was doing quite badly, and now is improving somewhat.

The Other Corbin

 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have two star players named Corbin. One of them is one of the best hitters in baseball and an MVP favorite already. It's weird that a former Cy Young winner and one of the biggest signings of the offseason has been relegated to 'the other one', but there you go.

Corbin Burnes recently missed a start for the first time this decade basically, a slight stumble in his quest to be one of the most consistent starters in the game. It turned out that he was just a little fatigued, and got right back on the horse with a terrific start against the Dodgers, but it was a setback for all the Orioles fans waiting for him to fail. As good as Burnes was with Baltimore last year, he got out at the right time, and arguably has more room to succeed in Arizona, now that the team's still on the up-and-up with Corbin Carroll's excellent peak period. The O's are gasping for good pitching and skidding into last, while the D-Backs, while a fourth-place team, are over .500 and not completely out of the wild card race. 

Having Burnes this season gives the D-Backs even more starting security, which is something they've needed since they went to a World Series with 3 starters and some hope. We are finally seeing what a Diamondbacks team looks like with 5 competent starters...and, yes, it is a 4th place team, it may not always be at this rate. Burnes, Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen and Brandon Pfaadt have mellowed into excellent seasons after a few crummy starts. Gallen, despite stumbling in a division matchup, eats the Mets for breakfast [as a good Somerdale resident should], and won both his starts against them. Kelly is fully rejuvenated, 4-2 with a 3.72 ERA. Pfaadt, finally fully matured, has 6 wins and a 3.73 ERA. And Eduardo Rodriguez...look, eventually it's gonna click, but it hasn't happened yet. Whatever, 4 out of 5 is much better than like 2 and a half in 2022.

And Burnes, while not exactly central in this rotation, is doing what he always does and just keeping teams down. He's got a 2.95 ERA, a 2-1 record and a 1.0 WAR. Together, he, Kelly and Gallen have 125 strikeouts. This is exactly what they wanted when they signed up.

The D-Backs themselves, while not a 1st place team, have still been pretty strong. Geraldo Perdomo is a .300 hitter with 9 steals. Pavin Smith has finally clicked as a hard-hitting DH. Josh Naylor is still a contact force, with 27 RBIs. Eugenio Suarez has 13 homers, one less than Carroll. And now that Ketel Marte's back his power bat has been boosting things exponentially. 

As strong as the top 3 in the NL West have been, the D-Backs could still be the spoiler and topple some things as we go forward. Especially if Corbin Burnes keeps being Corbin Burnes.

Coming Tomorrow: Yeah, I suppose you can keep leading him off, Toronto..

Four for Fourth

 

In case you haven't heard, Eugenio Suarez, Saturday night, hit four home runs against the Atlanta Braves. To hit four homers at home, that is very big. This put him at 10 homers overall, leading the league, and helped the Diamondbacks rise to, as I write this, 15-13.

Just two issues really. One, the Braves still ended up winning that game, as people who aren't Eugenio Suarez didn't show up at all that game. Two, even over .500, the Diamondbacks are still fourth in the NL West. The top 3 did it without any 4-homer games.

And look, Eugenio Suarez can keep the memory of Saturday night with him, in addition to all the home runs he's hit and all the big power moments he's had. But right now, there's not really a lot to him other than power. Defensively he's not great. Aside from the power numbers he's only hitting .206, and he's only got 5 singles so far. He also has 31 strikeouts, topped only by fellow power hero Corbin Carroll. Even in his most explosive moments, he's a pretty average power bat. At least Kyle Schwarber is hitting for average. At least Aaron Judge has multiple dimensions. There really isn't much to Suarez other than home runs anymore, and that's not a great sign.

The Diamondbacks just have a lot of aspects right now that really aren't as good as they should be. Brandon Pfaadt and his 5 wins are the only starter with an ERA lower than 3, meaning Corbin Burnes, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez and even Zac Gallen are all struggling. Gallen has a 5.57 ERA and a 1-4 record, after several years of being truly untouchable. Maybe whatever injury limited him last year is still acting up? Burnes, a year after a Cy Young caliber season in Baltimore, has yet to garner a win. You're also still waiting on Jake McCarthy and Lourdes Gurriel to do anything, you're without Ketel Marte for a bit and all the catching options are struggling to hit. The last two seasons did not prepare the Diamondbacks for such diminishing returns, solely because the breakout came on the promise of a bright future. This is not bright.

Josh Naylor, at the very least, is hitting as advertised. .318 with 19 RBIs and 4 homers, that's exactly what he was brought over to do. Pavin Smith has been incredible at DH, hitting .333 with 9 RBIs and 4 homers. The bullpen has the right idea for the most part, though there's a couple guys that just aren't getting it done. The pieces of a good team are definitely there, but the top 3 in this division didn't have time for the sort of learning curve the D-Backs are still on. There can still be room for them, but a lot needs to change, and a lot needs to be completely turned around.

Hitting 4 home runs is great and all, but it doesn't do much if the games aren't getting won.

Coming Tonight: The definition of a workhorse. Makes all his starts, goes deep, doesn't let you down.

What Sophomore Slump?

 

I think it's going to be difficult at this rate to describe to future fans that during a season where he led the league in triples with 14, stole 35 bases and hit 74 RBIs, Corbin Carroll was considered to be a second-year disappointment. Many people rooted it to a tale of two halves; in the first half of the 2024 season, Carroll hit .213 with 5 home runs, and in the second he hit .259 with 17 home runs. I think it's even more specific than that; in all months except for August, Carroll was a .230 hitter, but in August he hit .280 with 24 RBIs and 11 home runs. The magic he was able to display year-round in 2023 only showed up for one month in 2024. Sometimes it turns out like that, especially when you're young and coming off a stellar rookie season. It happened to Bryce Harper, it happened to Buster Posey, and it might be happening to Paul Skenes at this rate.

The good news for Corbin Carroll is I don't think his rookie season was a fluke. I think his sophomore season was.

Right now, Carroll has the highest WAR in baseball, 1.3 WAR through the first two and a half weeks of the season. He's hitting .322 with 19 hits, 10 RBIs and 5 home runs. The one concerning factor is that he hasn't stolen a base yet, but I assume he will get there. Carroll is commanding the Diamondbacks, and being the exact kind of leading force I figured he'd be in his rookie season. Carroll is leading a lineup of great performance by people like Josh Naylor, Geraldo Perdomo, Pavin Smith, Alek Thomas and Eugenio Suarez, who will likely be a fantastic power bat again regardless of his trouble hitting for average. Even with Ketel Marte out for another week or so [I'm guessing], there's enough power and smart hitting to make this team a force. And it's fantastic that this team has two different central leadership figures, so that when one gets injured the other can still bring the team through.

But...here's the thing. The NL West this year is one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. The Dodgers are great, which we knew was coming. The Padres are great...and the Giants are great. That's three different teams that are playing at incredible paces, and continuing at their current pace, the D-Backs, as good as they are, are a fourth place team. Even with the offensive advantage, their three top starters, Burnes, Gallen and Kelly, have been disappointing so far. It's good for Brandon Pfaadt, who's been excellent, and it's good for the bullpen, which has been strong overall [plus Jalen Beeks and Ryan Thompson get to reunite and talk about how everything has been so good for them specifically lately]. But they really can't be a top tier NL West team if the rotation, which got them to a World Series in 2023, isn't working.

I do think the D-Backs have a chance longterm, especially if Corbin Carroll goes the distance, but it won't be easy, and it relies on at least one of the competitors falling apart. I'm open to it, though. If it keeps the division race entertaining, which is already is, I'm onboard.

Coming Tonight:  He made an ALCS last year, and even if nobody else saw it coming, he really wants his new team to be competitive as well.

Together We Once Wore Grey

 

I was thinking about the 2018 Padres the other day. There's the joke that men think about the Roman Empire constantly, but I can bet you nobody thinks about the 2018 Padres. There are names on that team that just shouldn't be spoken. Christian Villanueva. Joey Lucchesi. Carlos Asuaje. They had a guy play in all 162, but he only hit .250 and most of you probably don't remember who even did that. It was dire. Positively dire. 

And yet a youth movement was beginning to brew. The people that don't remember those dreary-ass end of the 2010s Padres teams remember that there were a ton of prospects that popped up around then and looked to take over, and...most of them were dealt before the Seidler runs. People like Nick Margevicius, Cal Quantrill, Chris Paddack, Manuel Margot, Franmil Reyes, Ty France  and Luis Urias. They were even more prominent in 2019, when the biggest prize of the farm system, Fernando Tatis Jr., took to the majors like a fish to water and, despite an injury costing him a chunk of the season, almost singlehandedly revitalizing the team. 

And now you look at the Padres and they're almost unrecognizable from that scrappy, homegrown 2019 squad. First of all they took back the brown and gold, that was a great move heading into 2020, I'm glad Machado and Tatis only had one seeing wearing those unmemorable navy and greys. But, as I alluded to, pretty much every youth piece the Padres had in that 2018-19 era got dealt. It's really just Tatis and Adrian Morejon, a guy who's evaded trades by just not being healthy til now, left. It's rare for a team to sell almost the entirety of the farm system and still make it deep into the playoffs, but the Padres have done this, and are still competitors.

Tatis, though, still feels like an odd figure in the development of this team. This will be his sixth season, and his age 26 season, and while he already has a cumulative 21.7 WAR, the stardom that Tatis was promised still seems slightly distant. It's not that he hasn't performed well, but he's never gone a season without missing at least some time, he was out for the Padres' 2022 NLCS run, and he was never exactly exonerated after testing positive for PEDs. Moving Tatis to the outfield in 2023 did boost his star power, and his power numbers last year were welcome, but he hasn't hit .300 since his rookie season, he's hovering around the .276 zone as a career average, and the injury last season robbed him of finally making an impact. He's still one of the best in the league, yeah, but I don't know if Tatis has delivered anything as powerful as his pre-suspension material. 

I do think Tatis will have a good season, but I get the clearest Juan Gonzalez vibes from him. Talented, capable of high highs, but the drawbacks are also unmistakably there. 

Meanwhile, let's have a look at where some of the other late 2010s Padres prospects have ended up, and if they're in any way comparable to Tatis right now.

A's: Luis Urias had a couple of years as an infield starter with the Brewers, then when that didn't pan out he bounced around as an extra piece. With Sacramento, he has a chance to be a depth infielder, and if his bat shows up the A's would greatly appreciate another power piece.

Blue Jays: Eric Lauer, a couple years removed from an injury, is still kicking around the league. He was decent enough in an appearance for the Jays. No clue if they have room for him though. They definitely don't have any in the rotation. 

Brewers: Manuel Margot's 2024 with Minnesota was not the greatest step forward, especially after years of being a reliable utility bat in Tampa. The Brewers plan to start Margot, but several of the outfield options have more versatility and more recent success. Odds are he wriggles his way through, but is he anything close to where he was?

Cardinals: Phil Maton has bounced around recently, but enjoyed postseason success with Houston and New York. The Cardinals took a flier on him a couple days ago, they could use established bullpen guys. Not sure if he makes the team, but if he does he could be a decent piece still. 

Diamondbacks: Josh Naylor just capped off a run of excellent seasons as an 1B/DH piece in Cleveland, cementing his status not only as a great power hitter but also a dangerous contact bat. The Guardians parting ways with him seems like a dumb move, as is putting him in Phoenix, where he fits right into the vacant 1B position that Christian Walker left. The D-Backs need guys like him, and if they seek to compete again this year I see Naylor factoring highly into things. Very satisfying to see Naylor find his full potential after his early days in San Diego scraping the surface of it.

Giants: Joey Lucchesi's comeback with the Mets was halted by the continued presence of injury luck. The Giants are seeing if he has anything in the tank. If anything he'll be a minor league depth option. Kinda sad to say he peaked with the 2018 Padres.

Guardians: Austin Hedges continues to be one of the most beloved defensive catchers in the game despite not doing a damned thing on defense. He will continue to platoon with Bo Naylor until Bo learns to hit more consistently. 

Mariners: Andres Muñoz was an all-star last season, proved he could work the ninth as well as provide consistent relief, and is very high on the M's relief depth chart going into 2025. Of everyone here, Munoz might have the highest chance for exceptional output, despite probably not getting the credit if he does so.

Marlins: Cal Quantrill had a great start with the Rockies last year but fell off hard. The Marlins could give him a shot if enough of their starting options aren't ready for April, but Alcantara, Weathers and Cabrera rank ahead of him, and Max Meyer and Valente Bellozo factor heavily for rotation spots as well. 

Mets: Luis Torrens was a backup catcher with the Mets last season, and thanks to Francisco Alvarez's injury looks to get playing time again this season. As a matter of fact, he might be the starting catcher going into the opener. As endearing as the Mariners fans were towards him in the early 2020s, the Mets fans could potentially welcome him even more. 

Pirates: David Bednar has been one of the best relief pieces in Pittsburgh this decade. Last year he had a down season. Either he recovers what he had in the early part of the decade or the Bucs dump him and go with Holderman in the ninth. 

Royals: Hunter Renfroe, after being on a different team every year for the past 5 years, has finally settled in Kansas City. He lacks the real pop he had in San Diego, but he's steady, reliable, and gets the job done. He looks to start this season in the outfield, at least until the Royals build up enough that he doesn't have to.

Twins: Chris Paddack is looking like a probable Opening Day rotation pick. The last few years he's gotten injured at some point, but last year was a relatively full picture of his skills, and while he hasn't touched his 2019 peak. Ty France, meanwhile, is coming off a weaker year after being the go-to 1B guy in Seattle for years. He looks to start at 1st in Minnesota, filling in for a gold glove campaign from Carlos Santana. The Twins have Jose Miranda ready to go if things don't work out though.

White Sox: Travis Jankowski won a World Series with the Rangers, and this is the thanks they give him? And the worrying detail is I'm not even sure if Janko will make the team out of camp for the White Sox.