Somehow, the Braves Returned

 

A lot of people are responding to the Braves' recent spike with 'oh, well you figured this team wouldn't stay down forever'. Honestly? No Acuna, diminished offensive presence, Lopez and Strider going down, Sale struggling, Snitker in hot water? I kinda thought this would be the gig this year. But, after all, this is still a Braves team, and they're gonna go for it.

The last eight games, the Braves have won seven. The outlier is a big loss against the Cardinals. Last night they even won a game where a guy on the opposing team hit four home runs in four at-bats against them. All of the wins, barring an 8-2 victory over Arizona, have been close. This is a nice start, however I'm not ready to go 'Braves are going to the World Series' or anything.

Here is the thing: some teams can get around having their biggest stars hurt by having productive backups. When Gerrit Cole started last season on the IL, they gave the spot to Luis Gil, and he helped bridge the gap to the postseason. The Dodgers had all their starters get hurt last year, and they still had enough backups to keep them moving. The Braves, instead of starting Lopez and Strider, are currently going with Grant Holmes, a 10-year minor league veteran, and A.J. Smith-Shawver. Holmes, despite finally being MLB ready, is not competitive team ready, and has a 4.50 ERA despite 2 wins. Smith-Shawver is doing better, but at 22 he's still a bit wet by the ears, and hasn't really been eased in as much as he should have. Similarly, instead of Orlando Arcia, who's finally lost his luster, the Braves are starting Nick Allen at short. This is...sort of working? He's alright defensively, but aside from a .273 average he's really nothing special. Just a lil' twerpy guy who gets the job done. And without Acuna, the outfield of Kelenic-Harris-de la Cruz doesn't look very good at all. Kelenic still hasn't figured it out in the majors, and it's looking like the Mariners were right to give up on him. de la Cruz still hasn't picked up an RBI. What a signing that was. Yet I feel like the Braves are regretting that signing less than they're regretting the Profar one.

The things that are working are at the very least encouraging. Austin Riley's off to an excellent start, hitting .300 with 6 homers and 18 RBIs. I was worried about him after an injury ended his 2024, but he looks like he's in great shape, and he and Marcell Ozuna have been leading this team in Acuna's absence. Sean Murphy's been very hot lately, and had a homer last night. Spencer Schwellenbach has been the Braves' most consistent starter so far, and has a 2.56 ERA through 5 starts. And even if Chris Sale has got his ERA around 5, he still has 36 strikeouts. I don't think there's much to worry about, he's just had some rough early starts. 

I think this stretch is telling me the Braves, at the very least, aren't a last place team. I don't think they're a FIRST place team either, but they're definitely better than they started the season, and they may have even further to go once some people start coming back.

Coming Tonight: Finally, FINALLY, a former #1 overall pick delivers on the promises. 

Not Quite as Forecast

 

The Philadelphia Phillies hitting first place isn't the surprising part of recent NL East developments. The surprising part is that the Atlanta Braves let them.

The Braves, despite a 26-15 record, a guy with 41 RBIs in May and two great pitchers that were essentially flyer picks, don't feel entirely like themselves this year. The biggest difference is the lack of consistent production from Ronald Acuna Jr., after the best season of his career. So far he's hitting .247 with 11 RBIs, 3 homers and 14 stolen bases. Nowhere near 30-70. I don't know if there's anything that's directly contributed to it, but he's just not as good as he was last year. And that's the case with a lot of these guys. Bryce Elder, Orlando Arcia, Ozzie Albies, even Austin Riley, who's only hitting .245 with 18 RBIs and 3 homers. Even Matt Olson's only hit 5 homers so far. Really, the only hitter who feels like his 2023 self right now is Marcell Ozuna, who's got 12 homers. 

And that's the thing. So many people on this team are just playing 'alright' that there isn't really much the Braves can really show for these days. Occasionally something cool happens, but it's with somebody like Travis d'Arnaud or Reynaldo Lopez. Hell, pretty much the only time I've heard someone talk about the Braves in the last week or so has been the backup catcher, Chadwick Tromp, changing his number to 45 and going 'oh, is there some sort of American cultural significance to 'Tromp 45'? Tell me, the naive Aruban, exactly what you all have been up to lately.' And meanwhile they get fleeced by a better team by the Dodgers or Cubs or something. 

At the very least the pitching hasn't exactly been letting this team down, as Chris Sale, Max Fried, Raisel Iglesias, Charlie Morton and, yes, Jesse Chavez somehow, have all been really reliable for this team. Sale's having the comeback year he's deserved for years, he's 6-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 61 Ks. Hopefully this doesn't cause somebody to overpay for him next year but...I mean, you know how it goes. Somehow losing Spencer Strider hasn't put this team at too much of a disadvantage.

But, y'know...they're still 4 games behind the Phils, and the Phils don't seem to be letting up anytime soon. The Braves have to play the Padres, who are relatively hot, and the Cubs, who already had fun with them this week, in the coming days. The Phillies, meanwhile, have to play the Rockies in a bit, despite also hosting the Rangers for a bit. Even if the Phillies lose some ground, the odds aren't exactly in the favor of Atlanta right now, and hopefully they'll find their footing as the season goes on.

Coming Tonight- A man on a mission, who just completed a revenge start against his old team. 

No, The Braves Aren't Cheating

 

The good news is that the Braves put up 13 points against the Diamondbacks last night. The bad news is that the D-Backs put up 16. 

Since June, honestly, the Braves have been virtually unstoppable, commanding the league's attention with the best lineup in baseball, a guy that already has 30 home runs, and the obvious MVP. However, they've also lost 4 of their last 5 games. Some off these games are against contenders, such as the D-Backs and Rays, but losing 2 to the White Sox? Maybe you can blame the post-break cobwebs, but...are the Braves headed for a downturn?

Well, the people who think this is a strategically placed downturn to get the league's eyes off the Braves are also the same people who think the Braves are cheating, and they're not. There's some guy who's convinced that the team is employing the 'guy with coughing woman in the audience to give the answers on Millionaire' strategy to point out breaking balls with a woman's scream. The trashcan thing at least was uncovered because it was out of the ordinary. Now the smoking gun for the Braves is that you have to believe that the Braves don't normally have screaming fans. To hear these people out, yes, it wouldn't be noticeable if one fan in a field of thousands in that fanbase screamed consistently. But like...I think you're reaching. You miss spy camera systems and trashcan codes and you want something like that, and also the Braves have won so many games so obviously they must be cheating.

The Braves aren't cheating. A.J. Hinch I can see bending some rules to get ahead. Brian Snitker is too much of an old school sort to really challenge what's legal. It's also why the Astros haven't cheated as much since bringing on Dusty Baker, that guy's way too 'this is the way things have to be' to cheat. Also, I think the Braves' lineup is just...really damn good this year, because so many of these seasons, like Arcia's, Albies's, Riley's, Olson's, Acuna's I suppose, seem like the culminations of years of trying to thread the needle ever so carefully. Albies has been building his star for so long, now he's looking at a 30+ homer season. Riley's had two strong campaigns in a row, now he's a varied, consistent piece of the larger team. The rotation built and built so that eventually Michael Soroka, Max Fried, Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder could pitch together and impress people. 

The Braves were always good, but instead of losing too many of their pieces to free agency, they kept building and extending people so that they'd continue their primes in Atlanta, leading to the monolithic team we have now. They're not cheating, like the 2017 Astros. They're just reaping the benefits of a really well-run organization...like the 2022 Astros.

I think the Braves may drop a slight bit in the next week or so, just from how things have gone to this point, but they're still looking like a top seed to me, and I still think it's gonna take some wild momentum to stop them from going all the way this year.

Coming Tomorrow- A very impressive closer for a very mediocre competitor.

The Braves Spring to Life [Again]

 

There's a Looney Tunes cartoon where Bugs and Daffy are competing for applause onstage, and Daffy's grand finale involves shallowing nitroglycerin and essentially blowing himself up, just so the audience will love it. And as they do, Bugs congratulates him on it, saying "they want more", to which Daffy, ascending to the afterlife, responds "yes, it's a great trick, but I can only do it once"

The Atlanta Braves.

At least...that's what I thought the Braves were til this month.

You see, the Nationals have proven that capitalizing on momentum by pulling out all the stops and going for broke at the deadline hoping it stays on isn't a long-lasting business model. Last season, when the Braves went crazy in July and rode that high all the way to the World Series, I was entertained, of course, but I spent a lot of time wondering what their plan was to repeat the success. Because there was the threat of Freddie Freeman leaving, and he did, as well as some of the contracts being too big to re-sign [prompting the loss of Joc Pederson and Jorge Soler]. And I'm not saying that everything good about that Braves team came in July, but a lot of it did. And with the Mets, Phillies and Marlins preparing to compete for 2022, I just thought it'd be a lot trickier for them to sustain their success if they went with the plan that got them the ring. 

However...the plan of 'being mediocre for two months and then getting hot midway through the year' seems to still be in place this year, and so far it's been working well for the Braves. In June, the Braves are 17-3, and before June they were 23-27. They have gone from a middle of the pack team to a team that's well over .500 with so many pieces working and so much moving in the right direction. Sportswriters point to a 'closed door meeting' in June that turned things around, and I'm skeptical that it's always gonna be as simple as a 'closed door meeting' to turn things around. This month the Marlins had a 'closed door meeting', but it wasn't a 'Mattingly wants to turn the team around' meeting, it was an intervention to get Jazz Chisholm to stop acting like a jackass.

Whatever it is, the results can't be argued with. Swanson, Riley, Acuna and Olson are hitting really well, with Riley leading the team in homers with 18. Contreras and d'Arnaud have made an excellent battery at catcher, and the NL having a DH now means that both of them can be in the lineup in the same night and perform independently of each other. Michael Harris has been having an excellent rookie year, hitting .333 with 13 RBIs in 24 games. Orlando Arcia has been excellent filling in for Ozzie Albies, hitting .329. The rotation has evened out to a decent, consistent order, and Anderson and Morton have brought their ERAs under 5. Kenley Jansen's actually a great closer still, and has 18 saves to show for it. And this Spencer Strider kid might be the answer to a lot of the Braves' questions.

A lot is going right. I know June can't last forever, but it's illuminated the best qualities of this team, and proven that they can contend. Who knows what it says for their postseason prospects, but they certainly look good now. Of course, I'll be seeing them live against my Phils in a few days, so hopefully they won't completely overpower my hometown team.

Coming Tonight: The Guardians just cut Oscar Mercado. Why? Cause there's a new Oscar in town.

Braves Update: Just Watch the Hawks Edition

 I don't know how it happened this way. This Braves team was supposed to completely obliterate the competition this year. But after losing Travis D'arnaud, Marcell Ozuna and Huascar Ynoa, and with less-than-perfect seasons from Dansby Swanson, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and Max Fried, this team is currently in third behind the sub-500 Philadelphia Phillies.

It's not as if everything that aligned last September was a fluke. But some of these pieces aren't working the way they did last year, and are a little rustier. Ozzie Albies is still a fantastic defender, but his bat is once again a problem, and he's currently hitting .233. William Contreras, currently the starting catcher, is in a similar place, batting .237 despite being a consistent stronghold at catcher. The bullpen has some decent performers right now, but it's not as consistent as it was last year, and A.J. Minter and Josh Tomlin are having disappointing followups to 2020. 

At the very least, a new hero has emerged in Atlanta, and somehow it is Austin Riley. Two seasons after an exciting but one-sided debut season, Riley is getting starts at third, hitting .313 with 10 homers and 22 RBIs, and leading the team in hits with 50. Riley is now 24, an age where he's a bit more comfortable, and after those two years of a head start he's finally performing at major league caliber. This is the upside of bringing people up at 23 rather than 27, because if a 27-year-old flounders in his first few years in the majors, he doesn't hit his stride til 30. We have a lot of those. Riley, thankfully, is ahead of the curve, and is leading the team. 

The youth is at least a step up this year for the Braves- Ynoa and Contreras, yes, but Riley, Ian Anderson, and the still-23 Ronald Acuna, are the pieces of this team that are doing the best. It's everything else that's tanking.

The good news is that the season is still young, the division is still open, and the Braves still have plenty of time to sprout wings and take on the opposition. Until then...there's always Trae Young.

Coming Tomorrow- The other day, I said that there's currently three possible Hall of Fame catchers roaming around the leagues. One was Posey, one is Yadier Molina...this one's the other one.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2020: Braves

After 4 games, the Atlanta Braves had a 3-1 lead in the NLCS, and were inches away from taking out the Dodgers and advancing to the World Series...and then the Dodgers showed up.

The heartbreaking end to this season shouldn't define the Braves, as they as a unit had one of their best seasons in years, overcoming issues that had hampered them in the past, and bringing some truly fun performances to the forefront.

Despite an injury limiting him to only 29 games this year, Ozzie Albies still had a decent enough year, batting .271 with 19 RBIs and 6 homers, better numbers than Ender Inciarte could muster in 46 games. Albies was also sharp in the postseason, with 13 hits, 4 RBIs and 2 homers. Clearly still a big part of this Braves core.

2021 Prediction: Back to full health and full production. Will have a 200-hit year with 75 RBIs. 

Another comeback: after opting out of the season before summer camp, Nick Markakis suddenly got the bug, and wanted to play baseball this year. So he made the call to Brian Snikter, and for 37 games, Kakes was back in Atlanta. His numbers weren't terrific, as he only hit .254 with 33 hits and 15 RBIs, but he still had 8 postseason hits. This may not have been the starriest final season for Markakis, who's been with the Braves since 2015, but it was still a fine note to end his consistent Braves years on.

2021 Prediction: A goodwill one-year deal will allow Markakis one more full season of production before he retires at the end of the 2021 season.

After being the rookie of last June, Austin Riley had a second act prepared for 2020, but it was a little one-sided. Riley batted .239 with 19 RBIs and 8 home runs this year, another hint that maybe he's not gonna be the most well-rounded player on the team. At the very least, he had 4 RBIs, including a home run, in the postseason.

2021 Prediction: Will lose the starting third base gig halfway through the season and be relied upon as a bench bat into the playoffs. 

In a season where Mike Soroka, Cole Hamels and Tommy Milone succumbed to injuries, the depth of the starting rotation was one of the minor issues the Braves had to face. Kyle Wright was a sturdy solution, as he overcame a rocky start to become one of the more reliable starters in Atlanta this year. He truly came into his own in September, where he posted a 3.91 ERA, 2 wins and 18 strikeouts. He had one great postseason start in the NLDS and one truly terrible postseason start in the NLCS.

2021 Prediction: He finds the strike zone and doesn't look back, getting an ASG nod and some Cy Young votes.

One of the members of the 2019 trade deadline bullpen-packing squad, Shane Greene stayed away from the closing gig thanks to Mark Melancon, but still was mighty fine in relief, with a 2.60 ERA and 21 Ks in 27 innings. 

2021 Prediction: Whoever signs him does so with the full intention of making him the closer, and he rewards them with 35 saves. 

Tyler Matzek was the true comeback player of the Braves this year. After coming up as a starter in Colorado, then losing a few years to injuries, Matzek bopped around the independent leagues and the minors before the Braves took a chance on him. 2020 was the reward for that, as Matzek had a 2.79 ERA in 29 innings, with a scorching 43 strikeouts. He also got through the postseason with 14 Ks and only one earned run. 

2021 Prediction: Matzek's work in long relief will make the Braves flirt with giving him a rotation spot. However, the majority of his appearances in 2021 will be in relief, and they will be similar to this year's numbers.

Two seasons after being one of the few non-snakebitten relief options for the Braves, A.J. Minter struck back, only allowing 2 earned runs in 22 appearances, making for a minuscule .83 ERA. For this, Minter held the highest ERA in the bullpen.

2021 Prediction: Lower numbers, but will still be a part of the postseason squad. 

In the category of players who made their biggest impacts late in the season, Pablo Sandoval came to the team in a waiver deal, thanks to the Giants prioritizing Mauricio Dubon. People signing Panda now kinda know what they get- he's not who he used to be, but he still gives you some pop. He didn't get any hits at all this season, but it was nice to have him here for the sole purpose of seeing the Giants great on the Braves.

2021 Prediction: If anyone signs him, it'll be to a minor league deal, and he'll make a limited impact on the season. 

I'd be remiss if I didn't at least mention that Philadelphia icon Cole Hamels pitched in Atlanta this year. Yes, he only did so for one game amidst an injury-shortened year, but he's still a former All-Star and pitching giant who did play this year, even if it wasn't for much. He lasted 3.1 innings in his sole game of the season, and posted an 8.10 ERA. But he still wanted to be out there, and he still tried.

2021 Prediction: A return to form pitching for a non-competitor, and by the postseason, a trade will send him back home to Philly.

Bryse Wilson had a few starts during the regular season, but it was his postseason work that caught people's attention. In Game 4, he went mano e mano against one of the greatest pitchers in the game, Clayton Kershaw, and came out victorious, going six innings and only allowing one run, with 5 strikeouts to boot. He didn't have much else of note this season, but it definitely got people thinking about what he could do in a longer season.

2021 Prediction: He'll lose a spot in the rotation thanks to a tricky April, but will gain it back and stick with it come August.

And then there's the new rookie of note in Atlanta, Cristian Pache, who had 4 at-bats in the regular season but came alive in the postseason thanks to his skillful outfield play and his 4 RBIs in the NLCS. The Andruw Jones comparisons were heard far and wide, but something about this 21-year old intrigues me in a full season. 

2021 Prediction: NL Rookie of the Year.

Coming Tomorrow- They made the postseason by the skin of their teeth, and even if they were out of it a day or so later, they still had some intriguing stories to tell. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2019: Braves

 For the second straight year, the Atlanta Braves advanced in the standings with enough leeway to make the playoffs, only to be eliminated in the first round. This was a bit more heartbreaking, as this was a better team this year, with a lot more depth, despite the usual bullpen dysfunction.

Austin Riley was a smart call-up for the Braves, despite missing some time and lowering his average. Riley still had 49 RBIs in 81 games, and proved to be a nice late-lineup bat for the majority of the summer.
Why Him in 2019?: He was probably the best rookie on this team, and could be a perennial performer for Atlanta for a while.
2020 Prediction: A higher average for a fuller season, and a 25-homer year.

2019 was a down year for Mike Foltynewicz, especially compared to his monster, breakout 2018. Folty's ERA ballooned to 4.54, and he only had 105 strikeouts. His postseason numbers were a little more balanced, but he still started that notorious Game 5, which was a multi-run parade for St. Louis.
Why Him in 2019?: His downslope led to the rise of Dallas Keuchel, Max Fried and Mike Soroka.
2020 Prediction: Folty will be back to peak numbers, and Hamels' influence will help him immensely.

 After a modest start in Queens, Adeiny Hechavarria made his way to Atlanta late in the year, and upon arriving, he started tearing things up like it was Miami again. In 24 games, Hecha had a .328 average with 20 hits and 15 RBIs, and got some starts at short instead of Swanson in the playoffs.
Why Him in 2019?: Hecha was a valuable infield presence when #1 draft pick Dansby Swanson couldn't be.
2020 Prediction: Someone with some heft will sign him, and use him as a backup infielder...til the starter gets injured and he returns to dominance.

A surprising development was the rise of Matt Joyce as an outfield option, especially after Austin Riley's DL stint. You don't expect Joyce to be in the mix with Acuna and Markakis there, but until Billy Hamilton got there, he was a strong bench/starting bat. Joyce's .295 average was his highest EVER.
Why Him in 2019?: Because this was Joyce's biggest crack at a starting gig since Pittsburgh
2020 Prediction: He'll be a late-offseason signing, and he won't get nearly as much playing time as he did in 2019.

 Another young pitcher who struggled after a strong 2018, Sean Newcomb had a rocky start starting games before being moved to the bullpen, where he fared slightly better, posting a 3.04 ERA with 57 strikeouts in 51 relief appearances.
Why Him in 2019?: Proof that there are good relievers in Atlanta...they're just all failed starters.
2020 Prediction: Will start some games, possibly 5th in the rotation, and reclaim some of his goodwill before being moved back to the bullpen following a July acquisition.

 And then there's Adam Duvall, who's been very Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde in Atlanta. Last year he was awful, with a .132 average in 33 games. This year, in 41 games post-callup, Duvall did a lot better, with a .267 average, 10 home runs and 32 hits. Now to Cincinnati levels, but not bad.
Why Him in 2019?: Proved he could still hit for distance after last year.
2020 Prediction: Will get some starts, but will mostly be a sturdy, reliable bench bat for the Braves. And he might have one big postseason moment.

Now, onto more deadline acquisitions. Shane Greene was set to jump right into the ninth and solve Atlanta's closing pitching problem. That didn't happen. After a few blown saves and a VERY bloated ERA, Greene was passed over in favor of Mark Melancon. Still, Greene did fine in middle relief, ending the half with a 4 ERA.
Why Him in 2019?: Because every strong first half needs an epilogue, and if I didn't make one of his Braves tenure, I'd be pretending it didn't happen.
2020 Prediction: He gets the ninth back and ends 2020 with 25 saves.

 The most intriguing waiver deal for Atlanta was landing speedster Billy Hamilton from Kansas City, despite his middling numbers. Hamilton thankfully improved upon landing in ATL, ending the year with a .268 average, 11 hits, and 4 of his trademark stolen bases.
Why Him in 2019?: Billy got his first postseason steal ever with the Braves.
2020 Prediction: I wouldn't be surprised if KC re-signs him, or at least someone similarly out of the conversation. And he'll do reasonably well for them.

And yet the best story of the Braves' year might have been Francisco Cervelli. After missing some time for Pittsburgh  due to concussions, Frenchy swore he'd never catch again, and resigned himself to possibly ending his career. Then the Braves claimed him off waivers, and he caught fire for them instantly, with 3 RBIs in his first three games as a Brave, and with a .667 average in August.
Why Him in 2019?: Because he triumphed when he could have quit, and made it to the postseason.
2020 Prediction: Will probably be a backup somewhere. Possibly Seattle?

Coming Tomorrow- They just missed another postseason run, but the Brewers are far from out of it for 2020.