Out of Their Hands

 

In a season where Juan Soto has performed above and beyond expectations, three rookies have revitalized the pitching staff, Pete Alonso has continued his long ball reign over New York and David Peterson had a breakout season years in the making, the New York Mets have still managed to come into the last week of the season needing other teams to lose in order to make the playoffs.

Again. For the second year running.

It's not quite clear if the Mets will need as dramatic of a final series to punch a postseason ticket this year, considering the doubleheader against the Braves that did so last year, but it's just as indistinct, and requires just as much action from the Diamondbacks. The Mets have been holding this playoff spot all month, but have wound down even with surges from Nolan McLean and Juan Soto, and are now only one game ahead of both the Reds and D-Backs, and need to keep winning in order to stay in the mix. And...considering just how great this Mets team has been at its peak, and how much they're working with...it's honestly incredible that we're at this point. Is this just gonna be a staple of the Carlos Mendoza era? Down to the wire regular season finishes? If their postseason ends anywhere near how last year's ended all could be forgiven, but if the Mets don't do as much as they can on their end, they miss out. A team this good shouldn't be waiting for Emilio Pagan to blow a save.

Even worse, the Mets have to spend the better part of this week in Chicago, playing a Cubs team that has already punched their ticket to the playoffs. But that isn't to say the Cubs are mailing it in, despite what Steve Cohen seems to think about Matt Shaw [no comment because if I say even the slightest thing in either direction I might lose my talk show on ABC]. The Cubs still have a lot of energy left, and they still have a lot of weapons with scores to settle. Nico Hoerner is polishing off his single best season to date, with a .302 average, 174 hits and 60 RBIs. PCA is one long ball away from his first 30/30 season, and that could make up for his rough second half. Matt Shaw, controversy aside, has had a very strong rookie season and looks to be the answer going forward at third. Cade Horton's 11-4, and could get a ton of ROY votes, even if the Cubs are limiting his starts til the playoffs. And the Cubs just got Daniel Palencia back, and he's a very sharp closing option.

But last night the Mets struck first, with a big win over the Cubs on the night of a surprise Reds loss to the Pirates. Right now they have the leverage, even if the Reds have the tiebreaker. They have some great pieces to rely upon at the moment, like Brett Baty, who has a .740 OPS and seems to have taken the starting third base job from Mark Vientos. You're also seeing Francisco Alvarez back and surging, which has always been a sign of a winning streak in the past few years. And Cedric Mullins has been an improvement in center field, even if he's still hitting below the Mendoza line.

Whatever the Mets can do during this series will make up for their lost week or so, but the Reds and D-Backs could still spoil it for them by going on a parallel run. It will come down to the wire, and whatever happens will be the result of how much effort the Mets can put in at this point in the season. 

Coming Tomorrow- Speaking of teams running out of time for a playoff spot, a recently-activated outfield threat trying desperately to move the needle. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Mets

 

For the second year in a row, the New York Mets came into the season with high expectations, and completely crumbled under the pressure of them. They not only procured Justin Verlander, but also Japanese fireballer Kodai Senga; at the very least, Senga ended the year with them. The Mets had so much heading into the year, and slowly it was all whittled away over the course of the season. They lost Verlander, first to injuries and then to Houston, they lost Pham and Robertson and Canha, and they even got lapped by Miami. By the end, Buck Showalter, who'd just won Manager of the Year, was out of a job, and the team was struggling to recoup and deliver anything intimidating going into another season.

So, in summation, not as bad as the hero going down in the first quarter of the first game, but close.

The best way many Mets fans have summed up their 2023 season is through the team's DH, Dan Vogelbach. The team kept him on to power hit. Vogelbach proceeded to...not hit. In 104 games he hit .233 with 13 home runs and 48 RBIs. Remember, he hit 18 last year, and was actually performing as a power bat between Pittsburgh in New York. Last year's Uncustomed Heroes, I predicted he'd reach 30 homers and become a fan favorite. He did not. Many Mets fans were referring to Vogelbach, a designated hitter that could not hit, as one of the worst Mets of all time. 

2023 Prediction: As much as I want to say that nobody would ever sign him, someone's going to. And...it has to be an improvement, right?

Tylor Megill, for years I'd say, has been on the cusp of greatness but has either been too injured or too inconsistent to really jump on it. Megill, due to the other injuries in the rotation, got 25 starts this year, and went 9-8 with a 4.70 ERA and 105 Ks. Not the most impressive starting guy for the Mets this year, but one of the more consistent ones, sort of by default.

2024 Prediction: 2024 will be Megill's best season. It may also be his way out of New York.

As I predicted last year, the Mets re-signed Adam Ottavino, and the 37-year-old relief veteran continued his excellent late-career run, with a 3.21 ERA and 12 saves in 66 games. Ottavino has been one of the best relievers in his class for the past decade, and if the broadcasting appearances are any indication, he may be thinking about his post-career options.

2024 Prediction: Yeah, I think he's throwing in the towel. OR...or the Mets re-sign him. I think he wants to retire as a Met, and if the Mets don't want him, he might just retire to the broadcast booth.

With the flurry of injuries and trades, a lot of the infield spots were taken by rookies in the latter half of the year. Brett Baty was the highest-publicized one, he was a prospect from last year that got more opportunities in 2023. In 109 games he hit .212 with 34 RBIs and 9 homers. As he's only 23, the hope is that he grows into bigger years.

2024 Prediction: Holds onto 3rd all year and finally shifts into his potential.

Mark Vientos, meanwhile, was the go-to rookie at third, and DH if they didn't want to risk Vogey. Vientos hit .211 and hit 22 RBIs and 9 homers in 65 games.

2024 Prediction: Of the rookie infielders, I think Vientos will have the hardest time finding a regular position going forward.

Then, the Mets brought up mega-prospect Ronny Mauricio late in the year, and unlike a lot of people in this post, he delivered on everything that was reported about him. Through 26 games, Mauricio had 25 hits, 9 RBIs 7 stolen bases and 2 home runs, proving himself right from the start as an engaging, exciting, fast-as-hell player the Mets could build on. During the offseason, Mauricio tore his ACL, and will probably miss the entirety of the 2024 season, because if luck shines on the Mets for more than 5 seconds it's apparently a sin.

2025 Prediction: Lindor-Mauricio will eventually become one of the best double play combos in baseball. Get ready.

Coming Tomorrow- I think I have the most Nationals of any team this month.