The Extra Perk of Extending Your Enemies

 

I think about the ending of John Carpenter's In The Mouth of Madness, where Sam Neill, who's spent the whole film in prison, basically wanders out the front door after a breakout. The whole film, we're led to believe he'll face consequences for something that wasn't his fault, and then the chaos of the film decides he won't after all, and he just sort of finds his way. That is how anyone who gets an extension this year that isn't a rookie should feel.

Nico Hoerner getting an extension is just a wild perk on the whole thing, because the guys getting locked down are the younger, more pressing guys like Konnor Griffin and Colt Emerson, or even the second or third year guys pieces like Tyler Soderstrom and Roman Anthony. And then suddenly you get Nico Hoerner signed for the next 7 or so years, solely because the Cubs have finally realized that they have one of the best all-around second basemen in the game and they don't want anyone else to have him. They were trying to move him, eventually decided not to, and...that's the right move. I think they also knew that the salary cap discussions are gonna make it difficult to do as many extensions in a year or so, and they wanted to get this in before they're limited. 

Thankfully, the Cubs are looking at yet another peak year for Hoerner, who they've already, smartly, built the team around. Right now he's hitting .273 with 5 RBIs and 5 doubles, plus a 0.8 WAR. Since his age-25 season in 2022, Hoerner has locked in and become that multi-tool, Sandberg-esque infielder for the Cubs, with exceptional defensive numbers, terrific contact hitting and crucial lineup presence. I remember they brought him up painfully early in 2019 to mend an injury-addled infield, and he honestly didn't do too badly for himself, but struggled for the next few years as the team shed a number of its Maddon-era strengths. Hoerner's a very classic-feeling presence, a career .280 hitter who doesn't strike out much at all, averages 170 hits a year, and owns his position. Him not making an all-star team to this point is, quite frankly, a travesty, but considering that Ozzie Albies, Ketel Marte and Luis Arraez also play in this division I sort of get it. Hopefully this is the year.

The Cubs, by the way, have struggled to find their footing thus far, despite a better team. The main issue has been the starting pitching, as Matt Boyd and Cade Horton are both injured, Steele is already missing time, Imanaga and Taillon have struggled, and Ben Brown still seems to be not quite ready for prime time. At the very least Edward Cabrera has been very sharp, but that was the guy they got for insurance. The bullpen hasn't been much better, with really only Daniel Palencia holding things down. The heart of the lineup still hasn't fully showed up, with Bregman, PCA, Busch and Swanson still looking for consistent success. It's clear the Brewers want this division this year, and the Cubs need to find a way to oppose them, even if this start was not what they wanted. 

Clearly there's a way through this, and enough constant performers like Hoerner will make it a lot easier to stomach. The injured guys will be back eventually [most of them anyway], and then hopefully this period will be long forgotten.

Coming Tomorrow- The Mets traded him for a similar veteran presence. Right now it's looking like neither team should have traded these guys. 

Out of Their Hands

 

In a season where Juan Soto has performed above and beyond expectations, three rookies have revitalized the pitching staff, Pete Alonso has continued his long ball reign over New York and David Peterson had a breakout season years in the making, the New York Mets have still managed to come into the last week of the season needing other teams to lose in order to make the playoffs.

Again. For the second year running.

It's not quite clear if the Mets will need as dramatic of a final series to punch a postseason ticket this year, considering the doubleheader against the Braves that did so last year, but it's just as indistinct, and requires just as much action from the Diamondbacks. The Mets have been holding this playoff spot all month, but have wound down even with surges from Nolan McLean and Juan Soto, and are now only one game ahead of both the Reds and D-Backs, and need to keep winning in order to stay in the mix. And...considering just how great this Mets team has been at its peak, and how much they're working with...it's honestly incredible that we're at this point. Is this just gonna be a staple of the Carlos Mendoza era? Down to the wire regular season finishes? If their postseason ends anywhere near how last year's ended all could be forgiven, but if the Mets don't do as much as they can on their end, they miss out. A team this good shouldn't be waiting for Emilio Pagan to blow a save.

Even worse, the Mets have to spend the better part of this week in Chicago, playing a Cubs team that has already punched their ticket to the playoffs. But that isn't to say the Cubs are mailing it in, despite what Steve Cohen seems to think about Matt Shaw [no comment because if I say even the slightest thing in either direction I might lose my talk show on ABC]. The Cubs still have a lot of energy left, and they still have a lot of weapons with scores to settle. Nico Hoerner is polishing off his single best season to date, with a .302 average, 174 hits and 60 RBIs. PCA is one long ball away from his first 30/30 season, and that could make up for his rough second half. Matt Shaw, controversy aside, has had a very strong rookie season and looks to be the answer going forward at third. Cade Horton's 11-4, and could get a ton of ROY votes, even if the Cubs are limiting his starts til the playoffs. And the Cubs just got Daniel Palencia back, and he's a very sharp closing option.

But last night the Mets struck first, with a big win over the Cubs on the night of a surprise Reds loss to the Pirates. Right now they have the leverage, even if the Reds have the tiebreaker. They have some great pieces to rely upon at the moment, like Brett Baty, who has a .740 OPS and seems to have taken the starting third base job from Mark Vientos. You're also seeing Francisco Alvarez back and surging, which has always been a sign of a winning streak in the past few years. And Cedric Mullins has been an improvement in center field, even if he's still hitting below the Mendoza line.

Whatever the Mets can do during this series will make up for their lost week or so, but the Reds and D-Backs could still spoil it for them by going on a parallel run. It will come down to the wire, and whatever happens will be the result of how much effort the Mets can put in at this point in the season. 

Coming Tomorrow- Speaking of teams running out of time for a playoff spot, a recently-activated outfield threat trying desperately to move the needle. 

For Your Cubsideration

 

Last year, the Chicago Cubs, despite some dips in quality, got insanely hot late in the year, yet couldn't sustain that momentum for a postseason run. This year, the Cubs...have had some dips in quality, have been one of the hottest teams in baseball since the ASG break, and are still 4 games behind the Mets-Braves scrum. It may be more of the same, or it may be an inexplicable playoff run from a team everyone counted out.

Something that was always clear about the Cubs, even in the weak points, was that they were a well-built team that had terrible luck. They made an upgrade at manager by getting Craig Counsell, they brought back Cody Bellinger and signed Shota Imanaga, and they lined their team with solid, consistent players. It was just a matter of getting everybody to be good at the same time, and that took them until now. Shota Imanaga was incredible in April, then he...met Angel Reese and cooled down significantly. Kyle Hendricks has Jekyll-and-Hyded like no one has in a while, just over the course of this season. Mike Tauchman had a big May and did little else.

And now, you're seeing all these people that took til NOW til build something, like Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Justin Steele, Seiya Suzuki and Miguel Amaya, working on great seasons. Swanson honestly came out of nowhere, and went from a low-level contact rate to now having 55 RBIs and 13 homers, in addition to another year of solid defense. Nico Hoerner was always steadily there but I think he became more important as the year went on, as this sort of leadership force with durable defensive skills and a team-leading 27 stolen bases. Suzuki has slowly accumulated more momentum, and now leads the team in OPS with 64 RBIs and 19 homers. 

This team, since mid-August, is 12 and 5. They're above .500, 2nd in the NL Central, and one of the few teams left in that division with any hope of making the playoffs. They've lost a few recent games to Pittsburgh, and now have the hell of playing the Yankees and Dodgers back to back. And then they finish the season by playing 4 bad-to-medicore teams and also the Phillies. If they can at least split the big series', and keep rolling through the Rockies and A's and those guys, the Cubs have a chance. They're a good enough team, the pitching's held up, the bullpen's surprisingly great, and they seem surer this year.

But...the Mets are ahead, and they might be a better version of the Cubs. They weren't supposed to compete, had an early deficit, surged like hell midyear and are now rolling. But they're rolling when the Cubs have stalled, and the Mets are very close to lapping the Braves for that wild card spot. If the Cubs want to outdo the Mets, they need to beat them at their own game and not bleed until they're in. The Mets are funny when they're hoisted by their own petard, and the Cubs aren't. People are expecting the Cubs to miss the playoffs, which is why they have to strike now.

Coming Tomorrow- A year ago he was one of the quickest draft-to-roster additions in recent history. Now he's got a few other colleagues from that draft class trying to shake up the team. 

Therein Lies The Cubs

 

The first month of the season has brought a return to competition to a few teams that were bottom feeders for a while. The Pirates are back, the Orioles are back, the Diamondbacks are back...and the Chicago Cubs are good again. Baseball's just a little bit more fun whenever the Cubs are good.

Not only are these 2023 Cubs pretty good right now, but they're good in a way that the last, Maddon-led incarnation of this franchise wasn't. These Cubs are, like, weird-good. Like, they had Yan Gomes hitting over .300 for a while. Do you have any idea how hard that is to do? Yan Gomes usually bats .230. This is big for him. Yes, it's big in general that a 35-year-old catcher has been such a success starting for the Cubs the year after they let Willson Contreras go, but it's only natural for Gomes to ascend to startership, as he has in Cleveland, Washington and Oakland.

You know what else is weird. Patrick Wisdom has 11 home runs and nobody's talking about it. I mean, some people are talking about it, but I hear more about Pete Alonso in terms of conversations about people hitting a lot of home runs right now. But yeah, Wisdom has 11 homers and his time as a relevant MLB figure isn't over. Neither is Cody Bellinger's, as somehow, by some odd means, he's figured out how to properly play baseball again. Maybe having a kid helped, who knows. But he's hitting .303 with 18 RBIs and 7 home runs, as well as a 1.7 WAR, which I think was his cumulative WAR from the last 2 seasons. 

It also baffles me that Nico Hoerner, who struggled in an initial full season with Chicago, mainly because it wasn't Iowa like the plan was supposed to be, has become the centerpiece of this team. He's excellent defensively, is hitting .310 with 17 RBIs, and by 26 has come into his own with the Cubs. Having people like Hoerner, Wisdom, Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki come into their own as this team becomes competitive is really lucky. Of course, having the money to get people like Dansby Swanson and Jameson Taillon to come aboard and start playing well also helps a great deal.

The Cubs currently have several big pieces, including Hoerner, Swanson, Marcus Stroman, Justin Steele, Bellinger and Wisdom, playing extremely well and keeping the team secure and confident. It is a competitive stretch that has been a bit lost thanks to similar stretches by Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, but I do think this Cubs team has legs, and their core suddenly coming together like this makes me confident that they can get a lot done this year.

Coming Tonight: Surprisingly he was not traded for Sean Murphy, but he's certainly filling in for him right now.

The Elephant in the Room in Chicago

 

It's like a bad horror movie. You're looking around at four of five people, going 'okay, he's the star of the movie, he can't die, her character's immortal, she can't die, I saw this character in another scene from the trailer, he can't die, this character's important to the plot, she can't die...I guess that guy's gonna die next.' And then when he does you aren't surprised at all.

That's what watching the Cubs in July is like. Looking at Willson Contreras, going 'well at least he'll get a cool death.'

It's pretty obvious that Contreras is gonna get dealt at the trade deadline. From the moment he was spared from last year's Cubs contractual bloodbath, people knew he'd be gone sometime after somehow, and now that the Cubs are reforming around Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki and Christopher Morel...yeah, it's pretty clear he doesn't have much time left in Chicago. I think he's okay with it, he's well-loved by the fans and he won a ring but...yeah, I think he wants to compete again. I used to think the Mets were gonna get him, but now I hear from my Mets fan friends that they're probably gonna bring up Alvarez soon enough, so...who knows? The Giants maybe? Cleveland? 

There's also the possibility that Ian Happ might go too, and while it's not quite as lethal to the Cubs' output as Contreras, it does leave more room for people to try and jump in and see if they can stick around, like what a lot of the last half of 2021 was. And is the combo of Suzuki, Morel and Rafael Ortega gonna be enough for that outfield? At least you can feasibly say that Yan Gomes or P.J. Higgins [probably Higgins, someone might trade for Gomes as a backup] will cover the backstop once Contreras leaves. The outfield, yes they have people, but are they, like, good people? Seiya Suzuki had a great start, but have his subsequent numbers been enough to reassure people?

At the very least, at least Nico Hoerner is playing worth his potential, and is hitting .308 with 81 hits in 74 games. I always assumed Hoerner and Nick Madrigal would blossom into a nice double play combo, and while Madrigal is once again hurt, Hoerner has done well working with David Bote, and he could be a nice foundational piece as this team figures out its direction over the next few seasons. I know it took him a while to get here, and I'm glad he's here now.

The Cubs honestly have a decent chance of eventually lapping the Pirates and finishing in third. They have a lot of cool pieces that could propel them upward, and getting Schwindel back from the IL does give their lineup a bit of a boost. Their pitching staff has a lot of depth and a lot of multi-role guys, so it's a versatile group, even without Kyle Hendricks. I don't think the Cubs have enough to really compete in the second half, but they have enough to finish somewhat admirably, which is a start.

Coming Tonight: A guy who had a pretty impressive scoreless start, and is still somewhat riding on a low ERA despite his team falling into awful luck.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2020: Cubs (Part Two)

Earlier I presented Cubs customs from the opening lineup day and starting rotation. Here is everyone else, including bullpen pieces.

Craig Kimbrel is obviously not where he was two years ago. Either he never got together after a late start in 2019 or he just isn't right for Chicago. But this was still the second consecutive down year for the closer who was golden for every season from his rookie year until his World Series ring in 2018. He posted a 5.28 ERA, only got 2 saves, and felt merely perfunctory in this improved Cubs bullpen.

2021 Prediction: I really, really hope a 30-save season is in the cards for Kimbrel. If not, he's off this team by June.

The real star of the 2020 Cubs' bullpen was Jeremy Jeffress, without a doubt. Jeffress, after a down year in Milwaukee last year, came right back to life with 8 saves and a 1.54 ERA, giving him a 1.2 WAR on par with his peak years. Jeffress gave the Cubs some true bullpen power, and a lasting closing piece in the wake of Kimbrel's inefficiency.

2021 Prediction: The Brewers re-sign him and he gets another peak year out of it.

2020 was poised to be a huge rookie year for Nico Hoerner, the double-A prospect who was called upon late in the 2019 season and made the most of it. In response...he gave some double-A numbers in 2020, with a .222 average and 13 RBIs. So, in an inverse of last season, a healthy veteran had to take over 2nd base for him. His numbers did go up in September, but it was too little, too late.

2021 Prediction: If the minor leagues are up and running again, they will help Hoerner condition himself to not have a similar season to 2020. 

Speaking of people who would have been in the minor leagues in 2020, Adbert Alzolay made some starts in 2020, which was a long time coming for the Cubs minor league prospect. Alzolay did fairly well in his late-season comeup, with a 2.95 ERA in 6 games, including 29 strikeouts. Just the kind of young strength the Cubs needed down the stretch.

2021 Prediction: Huge presence in the Cubs rotation, lots of strikeouts, and 10+ wins.

Cameron Maybin has played for nine teams in six seasons. In that time, he has also batted .266 with 204 RBIs, 92 stolen bases and 511 hits. He has been consistent even if his uniform has not. And as good as he was with the Tigers to start the season, it was heartbreaking once the realization hit that he would likely not end the season there. Sure enough, the Cubs trade for him to fill Albert Almora's outfield spot, he'd hit .250 in 19 games with 13 hits and 5 steals. I am genuinely glad Maybin is as reliable as he always was.

2021 Prediction: Why break the streak. Shit, I'm gonna predict the exact ones and be really wrong. He, uh, starts the season with the Pirates and ends the season with the Rays. Even if the teams aren't exactly those ones, the formula stays the same.

Funnily enough, Billy Hamilton's career is following a similar formula, since he's played for 5 teams [4 really] since 2018 ended. He made camp with the Giants, then COVID happened, he was released and picked up by the Mets where he played some games and didn't get many hits, then he was released again and picked up by the Cubs. The shocking part is that he actually hit pretty well with Chicago, a .300 average in 14 games [used primarily as a defensive substitution, pinch runner or hitter], and he got 3 hits and 3 of his patented stolen bases out of the deal. 

2021 Prediction: He gets some stolen bases for SOMEONE next year, I just don't know for whom or whether he hits for average at all.

Coming Up Next: They came into this season with two Martes and Madison Bumgarner, and they left it with only one Marte and barely any Bumgarner. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2019: Cubs

Bit of a step backward for our heroic Cubs.

This team...could not win away from home. They just couldn't. They were 33-48 on the road, and they couldn't keep this from stopping them. It was very sad, even if they made a lot of impressive steps forward.

Kyle Schwarber did his usual thing. He hit 38 home runs, a personal best, with a .250 average, another personal best, and 92 RBIs, also a high. But, he also struck out 156 times...which was ALSO a career high.
Why Him in 2019?: 38 home runs.
2020 Prediction: Hopefully he hits a bit more for average.

 Albert Almora was sent down to the minors this year, and I'm still not sure why. He had a reasonably strong year, and is still a great defender, despite his batting numbers taking a dip this year.
Why Him in 2019?: His call-down makes it possible for the Castellanos deal.
2020 Prediction: More playing time, and an improvement in terms of batting average.

 This was the year of Yu Darvish's comeback, where after a slow start he finally got back to his old tricks, with a 2.76 average and 118 strikeouts in the second half alone.
Why Him in 2019?: Might have been the only constant force of good in the Cubs rotation this year.
2020 Prediction: The ERA lowers even more, the wins rise, and the Cubs have themselves a Cy Young candidate. Like they wanted all along.

 The Cubs' backup catcher, Victor Caratini, became a bench force and lineup presence in the wake of Willson Contreras' injury. In 95 games, he hit .266 with 34 RBIs. Not bad at all.
Why Him in 2019?: Proves the Cubs have found a new backup catcher since losing Grandpa Rossy.
2020 Prediction: More concrete backup numbers, and an audition to start somewhere in 2021.

 Ben Zobrist's year was...tumultuous to say the least. He missed a ton of time due to his messy divorce proceedings, but once he returned, he was mostly his old self, hitting .284 in 21 games.
Why Him in 2019?: Comeback story of the year, even if it didn't involve cancer.
2020 Prediction: Either he winds up on a bench for a month, or he retires.

 One of the more important bullpen arms the Cubs had this year was Steve Cishek, far removed from his botched closing numbers after his breakout in Miami. Cishek became a great middle relief man, with a 2.95 ERA in 64 appearances.
Why Him in 2019?: Proved he can still be of use in relief.
2020 Prediction: A contender will sign him, and he will disappoint them.

 Speaking of disappointments, Craig Kimbrel in Chicago everybody. The closer everybody thought was indestructible finally had a human year after sitting out for a contract. The numbers he waited for? A 6.53 ERA with 13 saves in 23 appearances.
Why Him in 2019?: [plays Paramore's 'That's What You Get' faintly in the background]
2020 Prediction: Fuller year, better numbers. This will be a year more reminiscent of Kimbrel's heyday. You'll be hearing Stranglehold a lot in Wrigley this year.

 And...the big trade deadline acquisition. Nicholas Castellanos. Man, was this a smart pickup for the Cubs. Castellanos took off like a train, hitting .321 in 51 games, with 16 home runs and 36 RBIs (more than Almora in 130 games).
Why Him in 2019?: Might have been the biggest post-trade glow-up in the MLB this year.
2020 Prediction: Gets a juicy contract to play somewhere fancy for a few years. Will possibly touch his 2019 numbers once.

 Jonathan Lucroy's 2019 season was...odd. His Angels numbers were down from his usual averages, both offensively and defensively, and post-Cubs trade he performed...less-than-adequately, hitting .189 in 27 games, despite some early clutch RBIs.
Why Him in 2019?: Lucroy ends the decade in the same place he started it- with no expectations.
2020 Prediction: Dare I say it...backing someone up.

Nico Hoerner was my favorite feel-good story of the year for the Cubs. Addison Russell, Javier Baez and Daniel Descalso all get injured. The Cubs need a shortstop (Zo'll take 2nd), so they go into DOUBLE-A, to a guy who thought his season was over after an injury, and say 'Hey, Nico, you free to play short for a few games?'. So in comes Nico Hoerner, a year after being drafted, and he does amazingly, hitting .282 in 20 games, with 17 RBIs. The man is 22 and he's playing like a pro. I love to see it.
Why Him in 2019?: Proves that rookies can be ready at any time.
2020 Prediction: Will start in AAA, will probably get called up mid-year and continue what he started this year.

Coming Tomorrow- In between Card Show posts, some musings about a surprisingly impressive Diamondbacks team.

It Had to be Q

[Music Pun Streak #3]

The Cubs have won 5 straight, they've got one of the wild card positions, they're 2 games behind the Cardinals for the division, and they're responsible for promoting the first of the 1st-round draft picks from LAST YEAR into the majors. But...not all is well.

For one, the Cubs will likely be without Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell and Javier Baez for this stretch run. Those three are among their best assets, and they've had to shift things around greatly in order to keep up with the chaos, like promoting Nico Hoerner from DOUBLE-A (he's already got 11 RBIs and a .364 average), giving David Bote more starts, and giving way for more lineup spontaneity. It also helps that Nicholas Castellanos, and the TRIUMPHANT RETURN OF BEN ZOBRIST are fueling this team in the second half, helping the team get some much-needed road wins.

The most intriguing aspect of this season for the Cubs has been the rotation. It's been in several points different qualities, with different pitchers peaking at different points. Jose Quintana was okay for most of the year, peaked in August and is back to okay. Jon Lester peaked in April, then has been okay since. Cole Hamels and Kyle Hendricks peaked in May. And Yu Darvish built the entire season to this point, so that even the meh starts at the beginning felt like they'd be a natural progression to the current double-digit-strikeout games.

Craig Kimbrel is set to rejoin the team momentarily, and even without him the bullpen has been strong, with Steve Cishek actually doing well in the ninth inning for the first time since Miami, and good performances from Kyle Ryan, Brandon Kintzler and David Phelps. If Kimbrel can get back to peak levels with their support, they should be fine.

The bottom line: with this momentum, and these potential playoff placements, the Cubs have a definite shot to be in the playoffs in some capacity, be it as a division leader, or a wild card finalist. With this kind of determination, as well as the build and the Castellanos, the Cubs could become the underdog playoff favorite they once were.

Coming Tomorrow- Proof that sons of former MLBers only get press for like...being really good.