Wild Card Series Day 3: Scores Settled?

 

A lot of 'was this trip really necessary?' outcomes for the wild card round. Lot of teams just beating the lower seed. The only 'upset' came from the team that had led the division the whole year beating the team that won it in the last few games. Still some intriguing baseball games to get us there but it's very much calling into question of the reason for expanding the playoffs, aside from 'to give teams the ownership group likes a chance'. Though...considerably less of that than in 2020 or 2022. A lot like Survivor instituting a final four tiebreaker to ensure the winner they want only for the people they like in the last several seasons to be shit at making fire.

The Tigers were able to win against the Guardians in October, after...not really being able to do so in September. They did it with contact, like RBIs from Wenceel Perez, Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. The only real long ball was an inconsequential one from Dillon Dingler. The Tigers did almost spoil their win once or twice, and Spencer Torkelson's defense at 1st allowed 2 more runs to score, but they finished off Cleveland simply by being a better-developed team than them, and promptly punched their ticket to Seattle. Right now the Mariners are the favorites, which is a weird thing to say considering how well the Tigers were playing in June, but with Skubal on the mound anything's possible.

The Guardians were over a dozen games out of 1st at the beginning of September and still made the playoffs. That alone is an accomplishment. They were able to take the division with a wildly depleted team, led by a ton of rookies and unsung guys, and still pose a threat to the Tigers in a wild card series. That they didn't completely get the job done is sad, but understandable. The heroes yesterday were guys like George Valera, a rookie outfielder responsible for a rare earned run for Cleveland, and Chase DeLauter, the rookie prospect who got his first hit in the postseason, and Brayan Rocchio, who finished the season making up for all the time he wasn't hitting in the first 5 months. They will be back stronger, better developed and more commandingly. 

The Cubs were the better team heading into their wild card series and were able to stave off the Padres after all, despite...being the Cubs. A lot had been made about their rough postseason luck since 2017, and they were able to erase that thanks to a home crowd, a better team and a commanding start from Jameson Taillon. If Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner and Michael Busch are gonna be great playoff pieces, they might be in for a long run. And if Jamo's a valid October option, only allowing 2 hits in 4 innings, they might have the starting depth after all. Cubs-Brewers has the potential to be the tightest series of the four, as the Brewers don't want you to know that they've actually lost steam since their insane August. Could go either way honestly. 

As for the Padres...they got here, and they fought hard, but if Tatis and Machado aren't gonna hit then there's no point in showing up. At the end, the Padres were starting fights with the umps, saying they took the series from them. No. The Cubs were better and you couldn't hit them. Don't try and blame the system. One of the few Padres to actually show up this series was Freddy Fermin, the catcher they traded for to ensure they actually had a decent option back there. Fermin went 4-for-11 this postseason, hitting .364. The goal is for the rest of the team to show up as well. Jackson Merrill getting a late homer isn't gonna be enough. Next year it may be tougher for them to catch the Dodgers unless they really put the effort in.

As for my Yankees...what else can you say but 'wow'? Cam Schlittler getting Game 3 was a risk, and it paid off in dramatic fashion. The man went 8 innings, striking out 12, allowing no runs and no walks. It was a masterful performance, made even crazier by the fact that Schlittler was nearing 100mph for most of the night and was hitting 97 in the 8th. Nobody could hit this guy, and nobody could hit the bullpen either. The Yankees won this game by completely silencing a very tough Red Sox team, and remembering to contact-hit when they could. And again, the guys we got midyear, like Amed Rosario, David Bednar and Ryan McMahon, were the true difference maker. Very proud of these guys, and hopefully they can regain momentum in Toronto.

Connelly Early didn't do terribly badly himself, he struck out 6 through 4, but the problem with the Sox starting Nathaniel Lowe and Romy Gonzalez is that the errors that the Yankees' infield worked to avoid are gonna happen. That 4th inning illuminated just how unfit defensively this Sox team was for this moment, and they failed Connelly Early. The Red Sox were very close to winning this series and shocking everyone, and for the first time since 2003 they simply couldn't stop the Yankees. 

I assume they'll be back, bigger and badder, with their big 3 next year, and that'll be...fun. For now, we've got 4 fun looking series scheduled for this weekend. Still a lot of teams I really enjoy in the mix, so I'm enjoying this. 

On Our Taillon

 

Well I'll be flavor-blasted. It appears that the Cubs are actually gaining ground again.

Right at the end of the Phillies series, this team burst back to life, and has been dominating the Angels and, surprisingly, the Orioles ever since. That was the wild part to me, because the Orioles are one of the best teams in the league, and yet they only put up 2 points against them over the entirety of the series. Though, in fairness, it might be their turn to go cold, considering how the Yankees did against them last night. But the Cubs, for the first time since April, feel overpowering, multifaceted and just plain good.

It boils down to their top 4 in the rotation. Even without Assad, this rotation just works. Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele are all in terrific shape right now. Steele had a dicey start but has had an unprecedented run since, and has his ERA at 2.71 now, lower than Imanaga. Not that Imanaga's been bad, it's just been rougher compared to his start, but he's still 8-2 with 98 Ks. Taillon, just like last year, has been a refreshing surprise midyear, he's 6-4 with a 2.99 ERA. I like that Taillon no longer feels the need to completely overpower people anymore, and he's definitely found his control since his comeback in New York. 

And the strange variable here has been Kyle Hendricks, who's been Jekyll-and-Hyde all year. He was terrible to start, then he found his control and had a nice June run, then he lost it again. Last night against St. Louis he seemed to have his stuff once more, but who knows how long that'll last. Still, for this specific moment in time when the Cubs are surging and need guys like him and Hayden Wesneski, it's very helpful that he's switched back on. 

We're also finally seeing more from this lineup. Nico Hoerner's picked July to get hot, he's already hitting .270 this month with 5 RBIs. Swanson's also heating up, and has 17 RBIs since the start of June. Seiya Suzuki's also back to his earlier dominance, he's got 42 RBIs and 12 homers. And Ian Happ is slowly and surely doing Ian Happ things, he's now got 14 homers and 56 RBIs. I think Happ is happy he stuck around, as he could have been dealt circa 2021-22. 

The Cubs are now toe-to-toe with the Pirates for third, and are catching up to the Cardinals during this series. It is entirely possible they work their way back. Not inevitable, the Pirates and Cardinals, and Reds, are still very good. But it could definitely happen, and this week could be the first step in that direction.

Coming Tonight: Imagine if you knew there was a party in your house coming up that most of the people that actually live in your house weren't invited to. That's probably how this guy feels heading into All Star week.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Cubs

 

I got to watch the 2023 Chicago Cubs play a game at Yankee Stadium this year, and I was very pleased with how many pieces had fallen into place. Some of the extra parts you didn't expect to kick into gear, like Miles Mastrobuoni, Mike Tauchman and Javier Assad, put up some excellent stuff against us, even if the Yankees small-balled Drew Smyly away to pick up the W. 

The Cubs, generally, had more to come away with this year than they did in any year since the exodus. Not all of the tune-up signings worked, but Dansby Swanson sure did, and he brought out the best in people like Nico Hoerner, Chris Morel and Yan Gomes. Plus, Justin Steele brought ace material, on a season that should have earned him more Cy Young votes than it did. It was an excellent effort foiled by a messy September, but it's a year this Cubs squad can build on, especially with Craig Counsell in the driver's seat. 

You can tell the Cubs are finding themselves because Patrick Wisdom, who was deemed a necessary and vital player during the dark ages, had less to do this year than ever. Yes, Wisdom still hit 23 homers, but with only a .205 average, and 11 strikeouts in 97 games. He was also a defensive liability, which led to both Nick Madrigal and, eventually, Jeimer Candelario, being plugged in at third longer term.

2024 Prediction: Midyear cut. It ain't 2021 anymore, folks.

After some decent seasons in New York, Jameson Taillon was brought on for a multi-year deal in Chicago, in the hopes that he'd be a solid mid-rotation option for a while. Taillon delivered on the grounds of consistency and innings-eating, making 30 starts and totaling 150 innings, with 140 Ks. His ERA was close to 5, and his 8-10 record wasn't to the standard Stroman and Steele were setting, but he proved a reliable third-man in a season that thankfully didn't require many starting reinforcements.

2024 Prediction: He's due for a lower-ERA season, and I think his first half is gonna impress a lot of people.

I can admit to being one of the people who had counted Kyle Hendricks out, as I saw a start of his in 2021 and it wasn't great at all, despite having so much respect for everything he'd done for this team since 2015. Though he had a later start than usual, Hendricks blossomed into a skilled performer for this Cubs team, even at 33, and his 3.74 ERA was the lowest by a Cubs starter not named Steele. Now going into the last year on his Cubs contract, Hendricks has recouped some goodwill and looks to be a big part of a different-looking rotation.

2024 Prediction: Finishes strong, with a consistent, classic year [down in Ks] that opens him up for a modest end-of-career contract, possibly even still in Chicago. 

With the rise of people like Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski and Keegan Thompson, it was looking like there was even less of a place for Adbert Alzolay in the Cubs' pitching plan than ever. Then, despite the presence of a few actual closers in the bullpen, Alzolay found himself ahead in the depth chart, and thereby given the ninth. As a closing man, Alzolay found his groove, with 22 saves, a 2.67 ERA and a 1.8 WAR, finally confirming his place on these forthcoming teams.

2024 Prediction: The team trusts him with the ninth permanently, and he becomes one of the league's great closers. 

For my money, one of the most fitting trade deadline deals happened when the Cubs finally staged a reunion between them and Jeimer Candelario, the third base prospect they'd dealt to Detroit in exchange for Alex Avila. Candelario had become a well-loved power bat in Detroit, and had gotten off to an excellent start in Washington, so the trade was set. Upon arriving in Chicago, Candelario, though not to Washington standards, delivered on some solid 3rd base, and hit .234 with 6 homers and 17 RBIs in 41 games. Not bad, but perhaps not the playoff-making performance I figured.

2024 Prediction: I question why exactly the Reds would want to plug someone like Candelario into an infield of mostly youngsters that's relatively set, but I think the hope is that Candelario provides a first-half veteran aid to the team that can be phased out over time, which I reckon will happen. Maybe some June 2023 style numbers at times, but I don't see this working out as well.

With a rare hole in their rotation, thanks to injuries to Marcus Stroman and the demotion of Hayden Wesneski, the Cubs turned to a rookie named Jordan Wicks who had done quite well for himself in Iowa. In 7 MLB games, Wicks went 4-1 with 24 Ks, though his ERA ballooned to 4.41 despite an impeccable debut. With some competition for that fifth spot, Wicks will have to prove himself in spring training to ensure the continuation of his MLB progress.

2024 Prediction: Some Rookie of the Year votes for sure. 

And then you have the golden boy. The Cubs' system's pride and joy for the last few years, a huge-tier prospect named Pete Crow-Armstrong, who got the call for the stretch run this year. PCA is going to be something for the Cubs, let's be clear on that, but through 13 games he could not muster a hit, despite batting a run in and stealing two bases. It's not a damning stat yet, but considering that a similar immediate slump befell fellow Cubs prospect Matt Mervis earlier this year, it's slightly worrying.

2024 Prediction: Not an Opening Day roster pick, but will get back here and make up for this last-month stuff. With apologies to Wicks, PCA might be a ROY favorite for 2024.

Coming Tomorrow- There's only a few D-Backs left I didn't get to during the season. 

Yep, They're Still That Good

 

The last time I posted about the Yankees, I was thinking they'd have a bit of a dip in quality in the ramp-up to June before letting the Blue Jays catch up. Since that post, the Yankees have lost 5 games...and won 10.

Maybe I should predict a drop-off more often. I know my prediction skills are broken, I better put it to good use.

This rotation, man....oh my gosh, this rotation. I know Montgomery was a little shakier today, gave up a run or two, but...if a guy with a 3.02 ERA and 46 Ks who can go 6 or so innings per start is your fifth-best guy, you're doing pretty damn well. This week Cortes, Taillon, Cole and Severino have been incredible on the mound, with Taillon and Cole being perfect til later innings, and Severino only giving up 1 hit all night. With the exception of a one-off start by Luis Gil before he landed on the IL and a start from J.P. Sears in a double-header week, five guys have started games for the Yankees so far this season, and all five of them have ERAs lower than 3.02. For a team that has struggled so mightily with starting pitching over the last several seasons, and have tried to buy stability only to get less than 50 innings out of James Paxton, this is an amazing step up.

It's also fantastic to see so many pitchers having the best year of their careers so far with this team. Jameson Taillon especially flirted with consistency in Pittsburgh but was too injury-prone to really become too useful there. I'm glad that he's found his control, and I'm glad that we were able to pick him up cheaply enough and use him to his best potential. To also see solid stuff from both Jordan Montgomery and Luis Severino after a few consecutive injury-plagued years as well is fantastic too. Sevvy has learned not to overexert himself, and even calmer Sevvy still has 61 Ks. Not Cole numbers, but not completely docile either. 

And this team is still full of surprises. Matt Carpenter has 4 home runs as the Yankee backup DH. Jose Trevino has fit in as the starting catcher and is hitting .289. Manny Banuelos is actually a relief piece for the Yankees again [wonder if Brackman and Betances are doing anything?]. Clay Holmes is actually an exceptional closer in Chapman's absence. Aaron Judge has TWENTY ONE HOME RUNS. And now that Stanton and Donaldson are back, we're even better than we were in this stretch. 

I'm so happy with this team. But I'm so worried that the second I get too happy with them, they'll go cold fast. The Jays are heating up, as they are prone to in June, and you have to worry about them. But hopefully the Yankees keep going at this pace without buckling too much.

Coming Tomorrow- Meanwhile, on the other side of the borough, a once-promising contact annihilator returns to form in the absolute best year to do so.

Jamo Mr. Nice Guy

 The Yankees' rotation is looking slightly dire. Gerrit Cole returns next week, and Jordan Montgomery is sure to follow. Luis Gil is probably going to be a permanent roster addition, so Rob Brantly's days may be numbered [especially given Sanchez's eventual return]. And Nestor Cortes is actually a decent starting option after all, against all odds.

Meanwhile, the only leg of the rotation that hasn't been a problem has been the guy who took the longest to blossom. Jameson Taillon, known affectionally as Jamo. And of all pitchers to be a sole option in the last few weeks, I'm kinda glad it was him. This may go down as one of Taillon's best seasons, as his consistency and durability are coming forward for the first time since his full season in 2018. I'm glad he figured out pitching in New York, and I'm glad he figured out how to build back his dominance after two injury-plagued years. Between him and Kluber, Taillon was the one I was the least worried about but the most concerned about consistency, and he's been great. Kluber I'm kinda hoping comes back sometime this year though.

As for the rest of the Yanks...things are kinda the same as usual. We're still in third, coming off a decent winning stretch but bobbing back and forth with the same rotten luck we've had all year. Anthony Rizzo was hitting, but he ended up on the COVID list with everybody else. Good news is Luke Voit has been quietly gaining ground and having good power moments in his place. LeMahieu, Stanton and Judge have been hot in this era, and thank the lord they've all stayed healthy in this stretch. Judge especially has been high-tier, and had some nice homers in the Field of Dreams game [which I really enjoyed for the first 8 and a half innings]

In a perfect world, all the COVID guys come back and we race past the Sox for a higher Wild Card spot. I'm just as skeptical of this team's legitimacy as any, but I do think we have a nice shot if everyone comes back in good form. The real indicator will be what Gerrit Cole's gonna look like this week. We'll just have to see from there.

Coming Tomorrow- Until this guy came to town, his team were down and out without a chance. Now they're wrestling Philly for a division leader spot.

Buc 50

Despite dropping a game to the Cubs earlier today, the Pittsburgh Pirates have surprisingly gotten off to a nice start for a team that everyone was thinking would be last place finishers.

First of all, in the past few days the Pirates have called up Kevin Newman and Jason Martin, and both have been highly successful. Martin will likely be stepping up to a permanent outfield position this week in Corey Dickerson's absence, making the prospect of a Martin-Marte-Melkman outfield a surprisingly impressive one, especially considering Melky Cabrera's early numbers.

Then, the Pirates have finally trusted oft-relief-based pitcher Jordan Lyles with a spot in the rotation, which he's definitely risen to, with an impressive premier start. He joins the already strong trio of Jameson Taillon, Chris "Incites a brawl and still gets to stay in the game" Archer and Trevor Williams. Hell, even Joe Musgrove has stepped up as a rotation option, with impressive results (read: lots of strikeouts). Even if Taillon will have the occasional start where he gets lit up...like, so did Gerrit Cole when he was still here.

Plus, in the absence of a concrete star player, Josh Bell has FINALLY stepped up in a big way, and become the home-run hitting everyman that we all wished he could be last year. Adam Frazier and Colin Moran are impressing as well in this category.

The downsides to this team are its comparative faults to competitors in St. Louis and Milwaukee. This is a very amateurish team at times, and there's still a lack of a real game-making ability from a lot of these guys. There's nominally an ace (Taillon or Archer), and there's nominally a marquee star (Marte), but...you think that it can be better. I mean, we're not at 2007 levels of ineptitude, but we're just circling towards mediocrity, which I really wish wasn't happening to such a fun Pirates team.

I'm expecting good things, but...hopefully the Pirates can throw in some great things along the way.

Coming Tomorrow- One of MANY home-run hitters out of Arlington right now.

Avast Behind!

How about those feel-good, game-winning Pittsburgh Pirates? How about that?

Yes, Jameson Taillon has gotten a few mediocre starts since I made this, but at least Ivan Nova, Trevor Williams, and the INCREDIBLE ROOKIE ARMWORK OF NICK KINGHAM are making me forget about that. Yeah, forgot to mention that the rotation of Nova-Taillon-Williams-Kuhl-Kingham is actually frigging amazing right now, even if Kuhl and Taillon are bringing up the rear ERA wise. This is more of a rotation than anyone had thought this team was capable of, and they're all playing great. Plus, Felipe Vazquez is cementing his status as a great closer, even if the rest of the bullpen is very hit-miss.

The lineup ain't bad either. Francisco Cervelli is having his first great season in yellow and black since 2015, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco are making up for torrid 2017s, Corey Dickerson is adapting quickly to Pittsburgh, and Colin Moran is quickly getting his stuff together at third. This lineup, while far from perfect, is pretty damned great.

The one problem is that this division, unlike the AL Central, is STACKED. The Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals are also competing, and they're all very hot on the Pirates' tail. So as nice as this start is, the Pirates are going to NEED that this is a legitimate pattern for them, and not an April fluke. Because if they're going to get fans hopes up and just flake out halfway through, they need to rethink that...as that's what they've been doing for the past few seasons.

This team has finally gotten some much needed things working, and I sincerely hope they can keep the momentum together.

Coming Tomorrow- A future Hall of Famer (arguably), suiting up and heading up a powerful AL West team.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2017: Pirates

In an era where the Cubs are strong, the Brewers are building, and the Cardinals are desperate to compete, there's really not a place for the Pirates in the grand scheme of things.

Dn't get me wrong, they're not at 2008 levels of effeteness, but 2017 was another step in the opposite direction, as a lot of the young stars they were banking on either slumped or got caught with steroids (...Starling...).

Gregory Polanco had a down season, marred with injuries and pressure once Marte left.

Jameson Taillon, despite some bad starts, seems to have a good hold on his mechanics, and could have a great season on the way, whether or not the Bucs hold onto Gerrit Cole.

David Freese, who was formerly one of my least favorite players, has become a pretty decent utility infielder in Pittsburgh, not being relied on to start as much, but giving veteran expertise and knowhow to a younger team, and coming in the clutch with some nice hits when he can.

Chad Kuhl, the other decent pitching rookie from 2016, had a decent enough sophomore season, having a nice record and strikeouts, but it doesn't mean much if the team's not effective at the plate.

Coming Tonight: A team that didn't seem to mind that they lacked a majority of the momentum that made them unbeatable last year.

Wait, so the Pirates Might Actually Have a Chance?

So...hear me out.

Alright, obviously the Cubs have the NL Central wrapped up, unless something catastrophic happens, and I honestly don't think the Cubs are in danger of blowing the entirety of that massive lead they have on everybody. So we're assuming, in this case, that the Cubs will be ending the season in first, and the Reds and Brewers will be ending this season in 4th and 5th. Respectively? Not respectively? Who cares.

That leaves the Pirates and Cardinals. The Cardinals have lost a shit-ton of momentum, and their best players are injured, leaving a sad husk of a team that was once great. The Pirates, meanwhile, have taken the opportunity to power up their farm system by 80000 and start infusing their team with a series of nice pitching prospects, as well as keeping the majority of their lineup on the up.

The Cardinals are 12.5 games out of first. The Pirates are 13.5. Which means it's time for a good old fashioned foot race.

The Pirates have a lot more going for them with a lot of impressive clutch hitters like Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, John Jaso and Sean Rodriguez, just off the top of my head, as well as one of the most impressive big game pitchers that nobody talks about, Gerrit Cole, and people like Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl and newly added Ivan Nova holding up the back of the rotation. The organization suddenly has a CRAP TON of depth, and a lot of great players hiding behind players that are already there. So if they need to make a move for a potential Wild Card run, which could be tricky seeing as the Marlins and Dodgers are already making great cases for it, they'll need to buckle up and start winning for right this very second.

The Cardinals, for the first time in years, are easy to beat, and the Pirates NEED to take full advantage of this if they want to be taken seriously, not only as a wild card sleeper, but as a team that could regroup and potentially take down the Cubs next year and the years afterward.

So yeah...the Bucs have a chance. Whether they take advantage of it is their decision.

Coming Tonight- One of the many young pitchers for an improved Astros squad.