Top 10 Trade Deadline Deals of 2026

 Well...a lot happened this time around. 

Following the brass today was HARROWING. So much was happening, and so quickly. Almost evenly displaced as well, like there'd be a move, I'd have time to make a custom of them, and the next two moves would be up. And I think it was all a well rounded bunch. Last year the emphasis was on relief pitching, this year it was a little of everything. Some teams needed starting help, some teams needed outfield bats, some teams needed catchers [and some needed catchers and somehow forgot to deal for any]. A lot went down, even to the point where, after the BIG MOVE happened a few days ago, I was worried nothing would top it. And...I mean, we'll get to it, but there certainly was competition. 

I have a lot of other posts planned for deadline week, I have a 'best of the rest' one planned, I have a 'the ones I didn't understand' post in a bit. But we've got to do the top 10. This kept sliding by the whole day and got to the point where it is now. One spot stayed the same. And...yeah.

Anyway, we start with one I really didn't think was gonna happen this deadline:

#10: Heliot Ramos to the Yankees, 2 prospects to the Giants

So, the Yankees went into the deadline looking for bullpen work and a catching upgrade, and got neither. So Heliot Ramos, a very savvy lineup addition, makes it to the end of this list without going forward. Let me just stress that I love this move, Ramos is young, controllable, and powerful. He's been hurt for a bit but he's hitting .264 with 9 homers and 34 RBIs in 74 games. He's a ferocious hitter with a huge upside and a lot to accomplish, and...he gets to hit in Yankee stadium. The tricky part is it crowds the outfield a bit. Right now it's Ramos/Jones/Dominguez/Grisham, and eventually Bellinger and Judge are gonna come back and it's gonna get even more crowded. It's bad enough that Paul Goldschmidt's gonna have even less at-bats now [more on that in another post], now we're crowding the active roster. It's gonna be worth it if Ramos continues his very strong work, which is very likely.

#9: Taylor Ward to the Mariners, 3 prospects to the Orioles

The Mariners have the kind of team that should work more in concept, because you have Randy Arozarena, Brendan Donovan, Julio Rodriguez, Dominic Canzone and Josh Naylor there and the contact game is ailing. So in comes Taylor Ward to make it even more ridiculous. Ward's having another excellent season, but it's a very contact heavy one without much need for power. He only has 7 homers and 30 RBIs, and that is appalling from a guy who's had 100 RBIs and 36 homers JUST A SEASON AGO. Wouldn't a trip to Seattle be a fun time to start power-hitting? Ward's an excellent outfield bat with some versatility and perks, and he could be the lineup piece that the Mariners need to save their season. I just think he really fits with what they're doing in Seattle. I'm also really happy the Mariners didn't deal Kirby or Emerson. Yes, that prevents against the possibility of stretch Kade, but their rotation is excellent and didn't need to be broken up beyond Castillo.

#8: Kevin Gausman to the Cubs, 2 prospects to the Blue Jays

The Jays had a really weird deadline, because they both sold and bought at the same time. And arguably they should have committed more to one than both. Ultimately, they chose to part with one of their longest-tenured stars, the mighty Kevin Gausman, where he will become something the Cubs have desperately needed this year: an actual ace. Justin Steele's been hurt, Cade Horton's out for a while, Shota Imanaga's struggled. They need stability, and Gausman is a veteran arm with postseason experience who can back up the already strong offense. This is a downslope of a year compared to his peak, as he is 5-10 with a 4.38 ERA, but he's still a fundamentally strong pitcher with a lot of great starts left in him. I think he will greatly aid the Cubs down the stretch. Perhaps not as much as someone a little further down, but enough to land on this list.

#7: Luis Arraez and Caleb Killian to the Phillies, 2 prospects to the Giants

This is arguably a little low, but it's down here because the Phillies really needed a better option at fourth or fifth starter and didn't get one. They also needed an outfield bat...and didn't get one. So Luis Arraez, as good as he is, is an odd consolation for so many pieces of this lineup that needed help, and if we miss out on a World Series, it could be Dombrowski's fault for not going further. However...the Phillies now have Luis Arraez. And that's a very good thing. One of the best contact hitters in the game, and a terrific defensive 2nd baseman, joins this lineup, and moving Stott, Bohm and Harper around supremely improves the defense in general. Arraez is electric wherever he is, and the Phils could see that fully going forward. We also got Caleb Killian, who's a terrific bullpen arm with a great upside. Very much a win for Philly, even if the team isn't fully improved by this deadline.

#6: Foster Griffin to the Guardians, 4 prospects to the Nationals.

The Guardians had a sneakily good deadline, bringing on a lot of pieces that lift this team up to where they can really chase Chicago. Foster Griffin was their best move, because their fifth man in the rotation was Slade Cecconi, and as good as he can be, they could do better. Their rotation is now Messick, Williams, Bibee, Griffin and Cantillo, and that's among the best in the bigs. Griffin isn't an ace, but he's an excellent mid-rotation arm with 12 wins and a 3.05 ERA under his belt, and that's from playing for a very okay Nationals team. He'll thrive in a playoff environment in Cleveland, and build on this belated rookie season to become an even bigger force going forward. 

#5: Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor to the Cubs, Francisco Rojas to the Mets

This one ways a little more than Gausman to me for the Cubs pitching additions, because Holmes, until the injury, was having the best season of his career, and one of the only good seasons on the Mets. Through 9 games he had a 2.39 ERA, and was proving that the Mets moving him to the rotation was a good idea after all. The idea is that once Holmes is active [as well as Braxton Garrett], he'll be able to aid the Cubs rotation, and I see him as a front-facing integral arm that could lead them through some postseason games. Tyrone Taylor's also an excellent outfield depth option for this team, and could be very helpful on a postseason roster. The Cubs weren't fully ready before, and now they are.

#4: Freddy Peralta to the Rays, 3 prospects to the Mets

This deal will work out if the thesis, that the Mets were just a really poor fit for Peralta, is true. Peralta succeeded in Milwaukee, a small market team built on contact and pitching. That's also the Rays. Low budget, small core, close wins, and an impressive rotation. Peralta levels it up, as good as Rasmussen and Martinez have been. Shane McClanahan's gonna miss some time, and Peralta will be relied upon to deliver Brewers numbers as an ace for a Rays team with a shot at a #1 seed. Peralta's 4.99 ERA will need to come down if the Rays want to take advantage of this deadline, and I have a feeling it will. Meanwhile, Jett Williams is still chilling in the Brewers' farm system, and Brandon Sproat is getting all kinds of starts, so...lolMets.

#3: Liam Hicks to the Rays, Brayden Taylor and 2 prospects to the Marlins.

I like this one a little better for the Rays, simply because it fixes a lot of problems. It ups their catching game, ensuring Nick Fortes doesn't have to start behind the plate as much. It also gives them a proven contact bat with some kick against righthanded pitchers, and a very well-trusted lineup presence. I think he's just one of those guys who can pop into any lineup and just dive right in with excellent production, so I think he'll love Tampa. And also, he drains the Rays' farm system a little more so other teams can have a chance. Just a really cool, sneaky move by the Rays that positions them further towards a late run.

#2: Adley Rutschman and Jake Rogers to the Red Sox, Carlos Narvaez and 4 prospects to the Orioles.

I would say since Varitek left, the Red Sox have had a revolving door at catcher. So many guys that could have been the one, or should have. Victor Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Sandy Leon, Christian Vasquez, Connor Wong, Carlos Narvaez, and the list goes on and on. So to finally have an answer at catcher, and for it to be Adley Rutschman a terrific hitting catcher whose team already foreshadowed this move by signing Samuel Basallo to a multi-year deal...that is huge. Rutschman's having another great season, but it did feel like this O's team was moving past the need for him. With this Boston team he'll fit right in, and be another huge lineup piece of a team that's quickly becoming a serious wild card threat. Very much a case of giving a team exactly the guy they need going forward.

But of course...nothing was gonna top the #1 piece on the board. Even if you disagree with its existence, this deal needed to be #1.

#1: Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers, River Ryan, Zyhir Hope and 1 other prospect to the Tigers

So. The best team in baseball got the best pitcher in baseball. In 16 starts, Skubal had a 2.79 ERA, 7 wins, 116 Ks and a 2.9 WAR. He's still in his peak, is effortlessly brilliant, and was never gonna stay in Detroit. The Dodgers taking him happened because they had a well-stocked farm system where even their lower tier prospects were more than other teams were offering. It's disappointing that, like a lot of recent Dodger developments, nobody else could stop it from happening. But now Sku gets to help the Dodgers go for a threepeat, and it's gonna make electric October baseball even if they don't get all the way. It's also gonna add fuel to the fire that Skubal will, in all likelihood, choose to stay in LA going forward. Definitely shifts the balance of the game, which is what the trade deadline is for. 

So yeah. A lot happened. A lot of teams won. And now the Dodgers are even scarier. Sets up the last third perfectly.

Sometime tomorrow there'll be a 'best of the rest' post most likely, with a lot of other deals that didn't make this list. 

G Unit

 

I had issues a few years ago with the Guardians calling up a supplementary younger rotation while its preexisting rotation [Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, Carrasco] was still hanging around. And for a bit it was this weird mix of old and new arms, and there was this dissonance that didn't entirely work. Then last year something finally clicked, and we settled on a formula of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi and....Logan Allen.

And then Parker Messick swung in for Allen and we all went 'yeah, that does work a lot better.'

It hasn't always been pretty. Cecconi is still mostly an innings eater. Bibee will have some rough starts. Williams can still be wild. But this unit has gotten more done than most other incarnations, and that's because they all do exactly what's asked. Joey Cantillo is 8-5, has 112 strikeouts, and though he has a higher WHIP because of the walks he gives up, he's still a solid MLB starter with, funnily enough, the same record as Parker Messick who has a much lower ERA and is much more fundamentally strong pitcher. I always thought Gavin Williams was the best overall pitcher here, as the strikeout artist, but he's got a 4 ERA and 10 wins.

And then Tanner Bibee, who goes back and forth between steady and infuriating, is on a pretty steady run. He's got his ERA down to 3.86, has a 1.151 WHIP, and despite the Guardians continuously not winning his starts [he's got 9 losses], he's still a smart choice and a good guy to pack innings on. I'm glad he's settled in, and I'm glad he's got Messick and Williams to sort of fall in behind. It's like how Aaron Nola needed Zack Wheeler. Bibee seems to have the hang of things, and could get even stronger as we go.

The Guardians were already good, and now some of the things that weren't working before have been clicking into place. Steven Kwan is finally hitting again, and is hitting .400 this month with 18 hits and 5 RBIs, back to what's expected for the fan favorite. Austin Hedges is somehow hitting .280, and Patrick Bailey has somehow been hitting pretty nice as a backup catcher. Jose Ramirez just came off the IL and immediately hit a home run. DeLauter's heating up again, Gaddis is looking like his 2025 peak again, and Rhys Hoskins is somehow still leading the team in home runs. It's still not entirely pretty but the formula works, and there's enough to keep charging at Chicago.

As I'm writing this it's not looking like they're gonna top the White Sox quite yet, but they're still threatening to, and it could happen very soon if the Sox aren't careful. Look, with all the rough records in the first half, the Guardians are gonna be over .500 and competitive very soon, and it'll make the first half all worth it.

Coming Tonight: Cubs RBI machine, third or fourth year running. 

Always Be Closing: Filling the Shoes

 

I've written about the disturbing lack of actual closing pitchers in today's 'RP1 takes it til they suck' mindset. Who do we have right now, we have Aroldis Chapman, Raisel Iglesias, Josh Hader, Kenley Jansen I suppose, and that's basically it. In another year or so I could include Jhoan Duran but we've gotta see what he's capable of over time. Everyone else is sort of holding onto their streaks and seeing if they can make a thing out of it. Gone are the days of Troy Percivals and Todd Joneses and Armando Benitezes. It's very much gig mentality. What can I do this year, forget about next year.

Which is why losing Emmanuel Clase, one of the single most dominant closers in baseball, was such a crushing blow for the Guardians. Nobody else actually commits to keeping a closing job like he does, and the dude just bets his way out of a long career. It's heartbreaking. And then, after you thought you'd have a sure thing for years, you're back to 'well who's RP1'. Just like that. Thankfully this happens to a team like Cleveland that already has a great bullpen, but it's certainly not ideal.

Cade Smith was in his second year when he got the closing gig. His freshman season was an eventful one, as he kept a 1.91 ERA in 74 games, with a 2.4 WAR and 103 Ks, plus 16 postseason strikeouts. Last year he was given the closing job upon Clase's absence, and while he blew the occasional save, he still ended the year with 16, plus a 2.93 ERA, 8 wins and 104 Ks. And how he leads the league in saves with 26, and is more than likely headed for his [well-deserved] first ASG. 

But...Cade Smith's big save season is happening in spite of what might be the weakest season of his career so far. His ERA's over 3, which hasn't happened yet, and his WHIP is also at his highest, of 1.200. He's allowing more hits, and showing more vulnerability, even if it means he's got 26 saves. Sometimes getting 40 saves happens to a Jeanmar Gomez or a Roberto Osuna, without the actual closing prowess to be good at the other aspects of the job. And so this season is just telling me how much more fit Smith is to be an eighth inning man, rather than a full closer. But it's really not his fault. There are so few closers these days, and so many more are thrust into that position without really having the gene. Sometimes you get lucky and wind up with Jacob Latz, a reliever-turned-starter-turned-closer, who's found great success in the ninth. Sometimes he will be the guy for a while, and sometimes he's just the guy right now. Cade Smith is looking like the latter, but you can never be too sure. 

The Guards have it so they're tied for first with two more games played, and this weekend series against the White Sox will no doubt decide it. They've won their last two, and they're got Rocchio and DeLauter hot, plus Steven Kwan FINALLY getting things going and playing as well as he usually does, albeit with a slightly shakier average. Once they get J-Ram back [hopefully soon] they should lock the division back up. It'll be a fairly close race to the top though, and seeing as last year proved anyone can get hot in this division at any time, they'd better be hanging on for dear life.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who hadn't been above .200 since May who suddenly went on the single wildest three day stretch in years. 

Down Under the White Sox

 

The Guardians' downturn since the Phils series on May 22nd is understandable. One of the best teams in the bigs, constantly putting in new working pieces, of course they're gonna have a stretch where they can't play too well. Losing games to the Rangers, Red Sox and Nats, those are tricky teams even if their records don't show it. The Nats are a beast on the road, they've got nothing to be ashamed of. And being swept by the Yankees, meaning all the people pointing out that they don't do well against .500+ record teams can finally shut up, is understandable because the Yankees are extremely multifaceted this year.

But being in second in the division for the first time in a couple months while the 1st place team is the Chicago White Sox...that has got to hurt.

Yes, the White Sox are a good team, but the Guardians are better, and have been at this for longer. The Sox are currently without Munetaka Murakami, and just lost some games to Philly. But they're in first, and thanks to Braden Montgomery they're lifting back up. The Guardians haven't looked this beatable all year, which is odd because nothing's...really changed.

It's really just some cold spells at the moment that have shifted thinks. Chase de Lauter's been cold since April ended pretty much, and he's currently only hitting .254. He's only hit 3 more homers after starting the season by hitting 4 in his first 3 games. He still has 34 RBIs, leading the team, but the long ball has eluded him since April began. Rookie Travis Bazzana has the highest OPS on the team, and that's at .766. Meaning, as good as Ramirez, Rocchio, Angel Martinez and Kyle Manzardo have been, they're still very average statistically as hitters. Even Rhys Hoskins, despite his 6 homers, is only hitting .166. The ability is packed into this team, but statistically it doesn't look great after a rough 3 week stretch.

Travis Bazzana's 2026 start shouldn't be overlooked though. Dude came up a year and a half after being drafted first overall and is already looking like a natural. In 39 games he's got 4 homers, 17 RBIs and 10 stolen bases, plus some solid work at 2nd base. The Guardians already had several impressive pieces [including, somehow, Austin Hedges apparently], but Bazzana is the latest and greatest to really impress people, and it's looking like he'll be this good for a while. 

Also, and I don't even know if this is worth saying, but...the entire rotation's made all their starts and everybody has over 61 Ks. Some seasons are better than others [Williams and Messick are killing it], and Tanner Bibee's currently 1-7 despite a halfway decent campaign, but they're all reliable, healthy and up to the task. Maybe Slade Cecconi and Joey Cantillo could be a little more well rounded, but it's better than holding tryouts for a 5 spot in June. 

The Guardians's slide to 2nd does not worry me because they have the kind of team that's still destined for 1st, solely because they've shown more debilitating faults than their competitors. Injuries have killed the Tigers and Royals, the Twins aren't well put together yet, and the Chicago White Sox, while very good, are not a fully great team yet. I worry about the consequences of them dealing Derek Hill. Yes, Braden Montgomery means he's not as crucial, but that's a depth guy they could have used. I still think the Guardians are the team to beat, and however scary this stretch has been won't matter ultimately.

Coming Tomorrow- He's having another strong year at 1st for a team that is about to play my Phillies. Eek! 

Mass Production

 

The modern Guardians teams, with their contact-first, contracts-later approach, always have this way of surprising me. I can never tell who's gonna be the guy that takes over and picks up the brunt of the work. If you'll remember, Jose Ramirez was like that, he went from a guy who was taking some reps at third to a powerful contact hitter to someone who will retire as a Cleveland Guardian and get a statue at the Jake. Brayan Rocchio was like that, he became an infield standout, then stunk for a year and is now a true standout again. This is just what they do.

On a team featuring Jose Ramirez, Rhys Hoskins, Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter and Kyle Manzardo, the guy who leads the Guardians in home runs is Angel Martinez, a left-fielder in the midst of a breakout season, with 9 long balls and 27 RBIs. Right now Martinez has a higher OPS than Ramirez, and though his last week has been a bit slower, he's still an exciting, productive player. 

And the great thing about this team is that if someone like Martinez is slowing down, someone else can pick back up. Recently Daniel Schneemann has been getting hot, and he's been making some incredible leaping catches in the outfield. Kyle Manzardo's power numbers have slowly picking up, and he's been given more prime moments to shine. Rhys Hoskins has 5 homers, including one against his former team. And the biggest revelation of the season so far has been Travis Bazzana, the former #1 overall pick who's taken to the bigs with ease, hitting .292 with 3 homers, 10 RBIs and 7 stolen bases in his first 25 games. If this is the degree of excellence we can expect from the 23-year-old as he continues in the majors, the Guardians are gonna be fine.

That's very much the theme of this season, as even if they lose people, and even if they can't contend financially with the Tigers and Royals, they have the infrastructure to outlast everybody. Gavin Williams, Parker Messick, Joey Cantillo and Tanner Bibee are a very formidable core rotation foursome, with each bringing something very important to the table. Williams is having the best overall season, and he completely shut down the Phils the other night, but Messick might be the most dominant pitcher, with his expert pitch placement and low-speed craftsmanship. And Cade Smith happens to lead the league in saves with 18, despite a few of the issues that plagued him last year still persisting. 

This is an extremely good-looking Guardians team, with so many failsafes baked in and so many elements working. Undeniably they're one of the top two teams in the AL right now, and definitely one of the best teams in baseball, and they're doing this without breaking the bank or breaking the game. I'm not saying I need a Guardians-Dodgers World Series to make the point clear, but it'd be way more fun than a Rays-Dodgers Series.

Coming Tonight: If the Braves don't give up on this guy, they don't get Drake Baldwin. Or...maybe they just don't get his defensive catching numbers.

The Subtle Approach [As Usual]

1 game above .500. Hanging onto 1st place. Trying to contact their way out of a jam. Never a dull moment for these Guardians teams. 

It really is baffling, because this team has made some effort to not be just a young, speedy contact team. This year they got Rhys Hoskins. An actual power hitter who has hit tons of home runs. So far he's only hit 3, but he's a more drastic production idea than the usual approach for the Guardians, which is stacking 12 contact hitters together and hoping one of them gets to third in time. Right now the most important people on this team are guys like Daniel Schneemann, Angel Martinez and Brayan Rocchio, who aren't multi-tool superstars but are good enough to keep the team chugging along. Rocchio's back to his pesky 2024 self, playing great defense, stealing bases and smoking the occasional slap hit. Jose Ramirez currently leads the league in stolen bases and has only 6 home runs, which, while tied with Chase deLauter, is enough for the team lead. 

And it's working because there's a strong enough backbone behind it, and enough people doing their jobs efficiently to not ensure that they NEED a production monolith. Two of the top pitchers in baseball right now are on this team, Parker Messick and Gavin Williams. Williams is 5-2 and leads the league in K's with 60. The fans hoped he'd be this good as he came up, and he sure is. Messick has a 2.40 ERA and a .919 WHIP just by keeping the ball down and away from people. Even Joey Cantillo's no slouch either, he's 2-1 with 37 Ks. That and the bullpen have kept things very steady.

Where I worry is the continued promise of big prospects that go nowhere. Chase de Lauter is working, but he seems to be an anomaly. Kyle Manzardo is hitting .200 right now, with 36 Ks to his 20 hits. Juan Brito did not work in the bigs, and C.J. Kayfus had to go back down as well. Bo Naylor is still looking for that consistent season but can't reach .200. Even Travis Bazzana, an organizational sure thing, is only hitting .174 through his first 7 games. The big rush hasn't hit yet. Maybe it all will soon, but it's somewhat worrying. 

Still, it's a good time to at least have the fundamentals working, because it's enough to keep them ahead of Detroit. I think they're still a favorite for the division, though the Tigers could click once the injuries wear off. The Guardians are really one or two dimensions away from really taking off, and it's within reach.

Coming Tonight: As a return for Rafael Devers, he was seen as a failure. As a return for Caleb Durbin...he's fared much better. 

Messick I've Made

 

I caught about five seconds of the near-no-no Parker Messick was attempting last night. I turned it on in the ninth, saw the O's keep Cleveland down, and then Messick got up and immediately gave up a hit. Which is the effect I have on most no-hitters. 

The thing is, hearing Parker Messick's hitless through eight isn't exactly a 'WHAT??' sort of news piece. Messick's been brilliant since the Guardians brought him up last year, and he's already 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA in 4 starts. Messick isn't too flashy, he's just a stocky guy who out leverages hitters and keeps runs down. That was Tanner Bibee for a bit, but now he's struggling to keep runs down. Messick is closer to the old school pitching mentality, and for someone like him to be succeeding in Cleveland alongside Gavin Williams, one of your standard high-speed/high-K pitchers of the 2020s, that once again proves how versatile the Guardians are. The age of the Guards' rotation being a murderers row is mostly done, but having useful, sturdy guys like Joey Cantillo and Slade Cecconi following in still does the trick. Messick is very close to ace material, which is wild when Williams and his 29 Ks are right there, but he just seems like the guy this pitching staff can congregate around.

Now, while the rotation has improved from last year, there's still some bullpen arms that are stuck in 2025. Cade Smith is a fundamentally strong closer that still keeps giving up runs and hits even before he gets the save. Smith made the 9th tougher than it should have been last night, and it's a lot like what he was doing last year. The good part is the bullpen still has enough reliable, homegrown options like Erik Sabrowski, Tim Herrin and Hunter Gaddis that the cumulative bloodshed is still low. This why the Guardians build their teams like they do, so there's always a pool of guys they can trust. 

All that said, the pitching has been leading the way for this Guardians team so far. Not that the hitting isn't good, it's just still a bit unrefined. Obviously Jose Ramirez works, obviously Steven Kwan works, and now it's clear that Chase De Lauter works. Beyond that it's a lot of guys who ebb and flow. I guess Brayan Rocchio's good again, he's playing elite shortstop alongside Daniel Schneemann, making waves at 2nd. Angel Martinez seems to have a handle on left field finally, that's good. Beyond that, Kyle Manzardo's backpedaled tremendously, Juan Brito's not ready yet, Austin Hedges is hitting better than Bo Naylor [which...lol], and David Fry still isn't at 100%. This is a scattered offense, and while occasionally good things happen, there's less depth than you would think. 

But...in a tumultuous AL Central, the Guardians have been one of the sole constants thus far. Even if the Twins are currently leading, one does not expect them to continue at that pace the rest of the season. The Tigers have stalled and then raced forward, the Royals have struggled and then soared. Nobody's really walking in a straight line...except, comparatively, for Cleveland, who even on their worst days still can turn around and have a strong game. I think they'll earn it over time, but the Guardians are currently the team to beat in this division, and having Parker Messick as an ace certainly doesn't hurt.

Coming Tomorrow- A rare kind of player who can do just about anything. Brewers are lucky to have him. 

Worth the Extra Week?

 
Last week I wrote about the Pirates' at-the-time puzzling decision to hold Konnor Griffin back, despite the fact that everyone knew he wouldn't spend the whole season in Indianapolis. And I pointed to all the immediate successes of rookies and Opening Day call-ups. Then this week it became clear that the Pirates' infield options, Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo, weren't gonna cut it, and seeing as Griffin was ready and hitting well in Triple-A, they decided to just quit loafing about and promote the guy. Plus a surprise mega extension contract, which...I assume has made Paul Skenes feel great about himself.

And honestly? Part of me gets why they did this. Especially now that, even in that first week of major league play, a lot can happen.

First of all, from a promotional standpoint, bringing out Konnor Griffin in time for the home opener in Pittsburgh is a smart move. Attendance is already dwindling, that should rope people in for now. It also helps that the Pirates are actually winning games, and swiped some close matches from the Mets and Reds. You could make the case of 'well, with all the games we can win, we don't need the help', and that case makes no sense considering the comparison between two replacement level options and Griffin's potential numbers. It also sets up a continued April swell from a team who are slowly bringing on crucial pieces [and also Marcell Ozuna].

But...even in the case of an early, Opening Day call-up, something ridiculous could happen. A couple years ago Ke'Bryan Hayes got hurt almost immediately as the season began, and I believe it happened to Oneil Cruz as well. Logan O'Hoppe had a fantastic rookie campaign going a few years back only to be sidelined midway through April. And this week, Chase de Lauter's wonderful rookie campaign in Cleveland was tripped up by a foot injury. He's hit 4 homers in 6 games, been the hero in most of them, and now he's being moved to DH for the time being to not exacerbate the foot. 

It's also happened many times that someone has been called up as a sure bet and struggled at the MLB level. Remember Jackson Holliday's 2024 call-up, and how long it took him to figure out the majors, even resulting in a ride back to Norfolk and a ton of stories saying 'he's washed, there's no point, trade him for Tarik Skubal.' And last year he figured it out. Already this year, we've seen the Brewers call up Jeferson Quero then immediately send him down, the Marlins call up Deyvison de los Santos and demote him after hitting a hefty double, and the Mariners keep optioning Ryan Bliss. Some guys just aren't ready even when it looks like they are, or they simply just don't factor into the team's overall plan.

But at the same time, there's also the kinds of guys who come up and make you question why you even doubted them. Sal Stewart for Cincinnati is one of those guys. Last year they called him up for a stretch run, dude had 18 games and he made 'em count, hitting .255 with 5 homers and 8 RBIs. This year he got 1st base straight away, and he's been incredible, hitting .474 with 9 hits and 2 homers in 7 games. People had been calling Stewart a surefire success, and sure enough he feels like the kind of consistent, reliable contact hitter that the Reds had been missing after Joey Votto's retirement. Even in a crowded division, Stewart have given the Reds another crucial piece to get them closer to a perennial playoff experience. 

Konnor Griffin could be that guy for the Pirates. I think they're prepared for either outcome, either he's a Skenes type and it's perfect immediately or he's a Henry Davis type and he's gotta figure himself out for a bit before the magic happens. Still, the sky's the limit at this point.

Coming Tomorrow- I think my skin cleared up a bit in a season without this guy being good at baseball. Oh well, right?

How Do You Get Anywhere?

 
Obviously the discourse surrounding the planned salary cap/floor has been completely normal and has been met with absolutely rational thinking. 

Right.

The players don't want a cap, the owners don't want a floor. Manfred has discussed a floor, who knows how high it'll be. The whole point is to incentivize small-market teams to actually build competitors and not be afraid to spend money on high assets. Already this past offseason, you've seen the Athletics, Orioles and Pirates spend more money than they have in years on genuine pieces to grow from, ranging from extended young players to contracted veterans. Obviously some did more than others, and the Pirates arguably should have done more of the extending, but a change does seem to be apparent.

And yet there still continues to be teams that are good, and will continue to be in the conversation, yet consistently let homegrown talent go for the sake of keeping the payroll low. The Brewers and Guardians may still compete this year, and both are expected to. The way both youth movements are going, they will be fine for a while. But this marks another year for both teams where stars have been traded, or left via free agency, and have been replaced with cheaper options. And that's not the direction teams should be going. There's running it back and then there's taking a running start and breaking into a stroll instead.

The Guardians' offseason was very 'business as usual' knowing them. No extreme moves, no big departures, but...that in itself is telling. In 2024, the Guardians made an ALCS, then they traded Andres Gimenez and Josh Naylor and mostly 'ran it back'. Then in 2025, with mostly the same team and even more youth, they traded Shane Bieber midyear then somehow still won the division after an incredible September. And then...repeat. Running it back, relying on young stars, not building on it. On one hand, I sort of get it- signing the occasional free agent, like Eddie Rosario or Josh Bell, hasn't really worked for this team. Rhys Hoskins was a late-offseason signing that only happened because Dave Dombrowski foolishly didn't want him back. 

But on the other...the only way this team can ensure a more dominant regular season performance that doesn't need to rely on late momentum is by putting money into the team. Having a young team helps, but there are people in the league who could do better than a ton of these starters. Arias, Rocchio, Jones, Martinez...they're not proven MLB options right now. It's nice that the rotation looks better this year, and that Gavin Williams has finally proven himself as an MLB starter, but you're kinda hoping that Slade Cecconi, Joey Cantillo and Parker Messick can do full seasons of what they all showcased for like a month. 

I forget who said this, but someone in an interview let on that Jose Ramirez was undervaluing himself in order to stay in Cleveland. As in, because he enjoyed the organization so much and saw loyalty towards it, he was intentionally not taking better money elsewhere. And this player said this as if it was a disparaging thing, like the optimal thing is asking for Shohei Ohtani money as a mid-level star. Jazz Chisholm will never get the contract he wants because he's limited in a few respects. Jose Ramirez could theoretically be making Ohtani money, but getting to play in Cleveland as a legend til he retires is more important to him than taking a paycheck somewhere he's not as certain about. Honestly, more players should be like Jose Ramirez. It doesn't excuse the Guardians refusing to pay other players, but at least the players they do pay have the right idea. 

Then you have the Brewers. The Brewers could have been a World Series team last year, and were unlucky enough to have to face the Dodgers in an NLCS. They succeeded where so many other Brewers teams failed, and built a strong enough squad to master the second half, even outdoing the Cubs late. In response to that finish, the Brewers traded Freddy Peralta, Caleb Durbin and Isaac Collins, three crucial members of the team, to competitors. Trading Durbin and Collins felt really short-sighted, as they're both young players with a lot of upside. But the object in Milwaukee is to make room for other young talent, like Jett Williams and Jesus Made and Logan Henderson.

And that angle I sort of get. This farm system is popping out gold on the reg, then having absolutely no opportunity to play, oftentimes because of other prospect dumps. Durbin was from the Devin Williams trade [already undone], Joey Ortiz was from the Corbin Burnes trade [already undone], Chad Patrick was dealt for Abraham Toro, a deal no one remembers. And now you're seeing it happen again, as David Hamilton, who came over for Durbin, is now a favorite to start at third, meaning Williams might be waiting even longer here than he would have in Queens. 

But at the same time...if you have an opportunity to go 'that was our opportunity, we can't let it happen again', you have to go for more than that. There were tons of free agents available, and they wound up with Brandon Woodruff for one last ride essentially and Gary Sanchez. And we're back in rebuild mode essentially. Like 'well this MIGHT work, but who knows'. You're trying to outdo the Cubs, who CAN overspend on a competitor, and you're hoping the same luck that happened in August this year can happen again, without a portion of what made it possible. 

So now the pressure is on people like Chad Patrick, who was good last year but at least could be under Freddy Peralta, or Quinn Priester, who was a winning man for the Brewers for a while with a more varied lineup, or Andrew Vaughn, who finally figured it out at the plate midyear but saw the HRs drop over time, to repeat their luck. Everyone has said that if Jackson Chourio finally has an Acuna-style breakout year this is within reach, and I agree. The team wouldn't have signed him to a major contract before he'd even played a game if he didn't have the potential to be a team giant, and last year pointed in that direction. This team just needs to build on 2025, and hopefully they can do so with a lighter payroll, even as the Cubs reload theirs. 

I always want the small-market teams to do well. But the point is that under the current imbalance of power in the MLB, it's becoming harder and harder for them to do so. I want the Guardians and Brewers to do well, but I also want them to be able to afford sustained success. Hopefully that's at all possible.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Guardians

 

What the Guardians were able to do this season, despite the amount that was stacked against them fundamentally, was incredible. That Stephen Vogt got this team to the playoffs without Emmanuel Clase, Ben Lively, Lane Thomas and any sort of foothold on the AL Central all year is a monumental achievement. The Guardians won the division in a season that was the Tigers' to lose, and even if the Tigers still knocked them out, they bodied them in the regular season. With, again, only a few huge pieces and a lot of youth. It proves that this team has staying power, depth, and isn't just Jose Ramirez. I respect it. 

Like, Tanner Bibee was the ace this season and honestly he didn't really have the greatest season, cause I really don't think he's ace material. You'd come from Kluber, Carrasco, Bieber...and Bibee maybe is a good 2 guy, but this year he wasn't a great #1. Gavin Williams was a lot more impressive. But Bibee at least had some nice starts, finishing the season with 12 wins, a 4.24 ERA and 162 Ks. He still made all his starts and went deep into games, it just was a very okay season in that respect. Remember when everybody made all their starts and that would just happen occasionally?

2026 Prediction: Much better year, but maybe misses a tiny bit of time. Helps keep the ERA lower though.

Gabriel Arias was supposed to take most of the starts at 2nd this year in Andres Gimenez's absence, but ended up taking most of the starts at shortstop due to the absence of Brayan Rocchio's bat. Either way, he was somewhat impressive, with 11 homers and 54 RBIs in 129 games, even if the bat isn't the main takeaway with Arias.

2026 Prediction: Similar middle infield role, a little less fluid, a little more production.

With Bibee and Williams cementing themselves atop the rotation, Logan Allen, for the most part, settled in behind them. He was a little spottier, with a 4.25 ERA, 122 Ks and an 8-11 record, but he was consistent, durable and topped 150 innings. 

2026 Prediction: A firmer breakout, a 3 ERA and some ASG consideration.

Hunter Gaddis continued to prove that moving him to the bullpen was a very good idea, with a with a 3.11 ERA and 73 Ks in as many games. 

2026 Prediction: Continues at this pace, with an ERA closer to 2024's.

And Cade Smith really saved the Guardians' ass this year, jumping into the ninth after the Clase suspension and keeping the lights on. In 74 innings, Smith had 8 wins, a 2.93 ERA, 104 Ks, a 1.005 WHIP and 16 saves, far and away the best relief season in Cleveland this year.

2026 Prediction: 30+ saves, chasing the league lead. Emmanuel who?

The Guardians brought up two very good looking rookies later this year, and they were impressive enough to distract the fans from neither of them being named Travis Bazzana. C.J. Kayfus is a very highly ranked hitting prospect for Cleveland, and he debuted in August and displayed decent power numbers immediately, with 19 RBIs and 4 homers in 44 games. Kayfus will have to contend with Kyle Manzardo at 1st, but Kayfus is slightly better defensively.

2026 Prediction: 30 homers, ROY votes.

And then Chase DeLauter, an organizational cornerstone, was brought up specifically for the AL Wild Card series against the Tigers, which was a very big deal. It's always wild when guys debut immediately in a playoff game, and DeLauter's hard-pounding work in Columbus was enough to make him a cool inclusion in October. In 2 games he did manage a major league hit, one that doesn't even technically count cause it's not in the regular season, and proved himself even in a losing season.

2026 Prediction: He's not gonna make the Opening Day roster. But he is gonna be a big part of the playoff push next year.

Coming Tomorrow- A few extras from a Mariners team that came within inches of their first World Series. 

Wild Card Series Day 3: Scores Settled?

 

A lot of 'was this trip really necessary?' outcomes for the wild card round. Lot of teams just beating the lower seed. The only 'upset' came from the team that had led the division the whole year beating the team that won it in the last few games. Still some intriguing baseball games to get us there but it's very much calling into question of the reason for expanding the playoffs, aside from 'to give teams the ownership group likes a chance'. Though...considerably less of that than in 2020 or 2022. A lot like Survivor instituting a final four tiebreaker to ensure the winner they want only for the people they like in the last several seasons to be shit at making fire.

The Tigers were able to win against the Guardians in October, after...not really being able to do so in September. They did it with contact, like RBIs from Wenceel Perez, Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. The only real long ball was an inconsequential one from Dillon Dingler. The Tigers did almost spoil their win once or twice, and Spencer Torkelson's defense at 1st allowed 2 more runs to score, but they finished off Cleveland simply by being a better-developed team than them, and promptly punched their ticket to Seattle. Right now the Mariners are the favorites, which is a weird thing to say considering how well the Tigers were playing in June, but with Skubal on the mound anything's possible.

The Guardians were over a dozen games out of 1st at the beginning of September and still made the playoffs. That alone is an accomplishment. They were able to take the division with a wildly depleted team, led by a ton of rookies and unsung guys, and still pose a threat to the Tigers in a wild card series. That they didn't completely get the job done is sad, but understandable. The heroes yesterday were guys like George Valera, a rookie outfielder responsible for a rare earned run for Cleveland, and Chase DeLauter, the rookie prospect who got his first hit in the postseason, and Brayan Rocchio, who finished the season making up for all the time he wasn't hitting in the first 5 months. They will be back stronger, better developed and more commandingly. 

The Cubs were the better team heading into their wild card series and were able to stave off the Padres after all, despite...being the Cubs. A lot had been made about their rough postseason luck since 2017, and they were able to erase that thanks to a home crowd, a better team and a commanding start from Jameson Taillon. If Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner and Michael Busch are gonna be great playoff pieces, they might be in for a long run. And if Jamo's a valid October option, only allowing 2 hits in 4 innings, they might have the starting depth after all. Cubs-Brewers has the potential to be the tightest series of the four, as the Brewers don't want you to know that they've actually lost steam since their insane August. Could go either way honestly. 

As for the Padres...they got here, and they fought hard, but if Tatis and Machado aren't gonna hit then there's no point in showing up. At the end, the Padres were starting fights with the umps, saying they took the series from them. No. The Cubs were better and you couldn't hit them. Don't try and blame the system. One of the few Padres to actually show up this series was Freddy Fermin, the catcher they traded for to ensure they actually had a decent option back there. Fermin went 4-for-11 this postseason, hitting .364. The goal is for the rest of the team to show up as well. Jackson Merrill getting a late homer isn't gonna be enough. Next year it may be tougher for them to catch the Dodgers unless they really put the effort in.

As for my Yankees...what else can you say but 'wow'? Cam Schlittler getting Game 3 was a risk, and it paid off in dramatic fashion. The man went 8 innings, striking out 12, allowing no runs and no walks. It was a masterful performance, made even crazier by the fact that Schlittler was nearing 100mph for most of the night and was hitting 97 in the 8th. Nobody could hit this guy, and nobody could hit the bullpen either. The Yankees won this game by completely silencing a very tough Red Sox team, and remembering to contact-hit when they could. And again, the guys we got midyear, like Amed Rosario, David Bednar and Ryan McMahon, were the true difference maker. Very proud of these guys, and hopefully they can regain momentum in Toronto.

Connelly Early didn't do terribly badly himself, he struck out 6 through 4, but the problem with the Sox starting Nathaniel Lowe and Romy Gonzalez is that the errors that the Yankees' infield worked to avoid are gonna happen. That 4th inning illuminated just how unfit defensively this Sox team was for this moment, and they failed Connelly Early. The Red Sox were very close to winning this series and shocking everyone, and for the first time since 2003 they simply couldn't stop the Yankees. 

I assume they'll be back, bigger and badder, with their big 3 next year, and that'll be...fun. For now, we've got 4 fun looking series scheduled for this weekend. Still a lot of teams I really enjoy in the mix, so I'm enjoying this. 

Wild Card Series' Day 2: So It's Gonna Be One of Those

 

I'm honestly happy the wild card series' aren't gonna be simple this year [for the most part]. Better for baseball. 

The key for the Tigers was getting the Skubal game down. Cause that was the only game where they really had a leg up on Cleveland. Casey Mize is good, but he's not Skubal good, and the contact game came raining down on him today, including big moments from Brayan Rocchio and George Valera, plus a very impressive three-run bomb from Bo Naylor, hoping to meet his brother in the ALDS. Tanner Bibee wasn't too bad either, only allowing 1 run and 5 hits in 4 and 2/3rds innings. This was the exact kind of game the Guardians should have won, and it allows for an even more exciting Game 3. Flaherty v. Cantillo. That'll definitely be interesting. 

Okay, so clearly the heroes of the Padres game were people like Dylan Cease and Manny Machado, but ultimately this game will be known as the Mason Miller game. He came in, faced five batters and struck out every last one, turning a lead into a commanding lead. The Cubs are a very tough team, and for this Padres squad to silence them, including a rare spotless inning from Robert Suarez, means that the Cubs may not have the cakewalk they were thinking this'd be. The Padres' lineup can strike back, and this game 3 is gonna be a matchup between Yu Darvish and Jameson Taillon. Yes, Yu has been shaky this year, but he's also clicked into place when the Padres have needed him. And is Jamo an October weapon? I suppose we'll find out.

This Yankee win was such a relief. I was so worried that the score staying tied would indicate an inability to capitalize on big moments, but then it dawned on me that all the Red Sox runs were scored by Trevor Story. The Yankees win belonged the whole team, from Ben Rice and his 1st inning bomb to Carlos Rodon and his strong start to Austin Wells who had the big RBI to Jazz Chisholm whose slide cemented the win. And the relief pitching, including Fernando Cruz and David Bednar, got us out of a lot of tight scrapes. No matter what happens next, and considering the lack of Boston rotation depth I'm mildly optimistic, we were able to win a game like this and make this a 3-game series after all. I'd really like it if we won tomorrow, but not getting swept is a true plus. 

If any of these wild card series' was only gonna last 2 games, it was gonna be Dodgers-Reds. Yes, the Dodgers have had bullpen issues...but they're the Dodgers. They're gonna win big.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, in just his second season, has become a postseason icon for the Dodgers, tonight went 6 and 2/3rds innings, and struck out 9, only allowing 2 runs and 4 hits. You NEED a rock like that in the postseason, and so far the Dodgers have had two of 'em starting games, Yoshi and Snell. We haven't even gotten to Glasnow yet. The offense did their thing, with some hard work from typical October heroes Kiké Hernandez and Mookie Betts. The key was small-balling past the Reds' pitching rather than going full power, and it's proof that there's still variety in this lineup. 

The Dodgers will head to Philly as the underdogs, though not by much. This is still a very tough team, and the Phillies aren't without flaws of their own. The Dodgers could find their October magic against the Phils...or, alternatively, the Phils could slay the curse of the 1st round bye and ascend to greatness yet again. It's their choice.

And since we've got to eulogize someone here...

Getting to the playoffs alone was a reward in itself for the Reds. They outdid the odds, outfought the Mets and earned October. This Dodgers series was always gonna be a tough hurdle, and it shouldn't encourage them from trying again next year. Unfortunately the only Red to truly show up tonight was rookie Sal Stewart, who singled in 2 runs early, the only crack in Yoshi's armor all night basically, then tried to get things going in the 8th with another RBI. Everybody else was silenced, and even Zack Littell struggled against a truly tough lineup. They should be happy to have made it, and shouldn't beat themselves up for not outdoing the Dodgers in LA in October. 

Tomorrow we break three ties. Pulling for my Yanks but, as it's a tough Boston team IN Fenway...prepared for either outcome. 

Too Close to Call

 

I remember when the Tigers had a rough stretch in July, as the Guardians sort of approached them in the standings with a parallel streak, and the Tigers were able to get out of it, and I myself thought 'well that was the one moment this year they've really had to prove themselves'. Because the Tigers have been one of the league's alphas since the very beginning of the year, completely flipping from their 2024 'surprise wild card threat' moment. They were a 1st place team early, kept it despite that losing streak, and retook the lead and rolled through August.

And yet....here we are again. Only it's way more crucial.

The Tigers have blown 8 of their last 9 games, including three to Cleveland. The Guardians, meanwhile, are in the midst of a 10 game winning streak, and are 18-4 in September. These Guardians teams are very good at finding ways to catch fire without a great deal to work with, and this team is no exception. Right now, the Guardians are simply playing better baseball than the Tigers, and it's enough to, potentially, completely derail the narrative of the entire season. 

Yet I think I like this better than a complete steamrolling.

We've really only had one division where it's been an out-and-out runaway, and even then the Cubs are a good enough team that they're still a playoff favorite despite the Brewers being heads-and-shoulders ahead of them for the division. Every other division has been tight. The AL West just got flipped in dramatic fashion. The NL West still isn't a foregone conclusion. The AL East still has time to get close. And if this had been a simple 'well nobody could catch the Tigers' thing, that wouldn't have been as fun. The White Sox had one of those a few years ago, and they couldn't do much with it in October. Sometimes competition makes you a better long-term threat, or it illuminates your flaws.

So now we're seeing a lot more flaws in this Tigers team. You really can't trust Jack Flaherty as much as you could last fall, and he leads the league in losses with 14. Beyond Skubal and Mize, the lack of depth this rotation has is kind of infuriating, as Charlie Morton needs to be trotted out there every 5 games due to lack of options, and this isn't peak June Charlie Morton. Riley Greene isn't hitting, and he's looking to lead the league in strikeouts. Baez has sort of reverted to his old Tigers self. The stronghold has dissolved a bit. Not that the spark could still appear, but there's a desperation that was not there before.

The Guardians, however, have turned desperation into opportunity. What was once a very messy rotation now has roles for excellent performers like Parker Messick, Slade Cecconi and Joey Cantillo. Cantillo's been excellent since coming back, with a 2.44 ERA and 41 Ks in 8 starts. We knew last fall that he was capable of greatness, he just needed the opportunity. In a weird way, the Guardians' rotation sort of fulfilled a lot of promises, because Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams did, in fact, make all their starts. Granted, they weren't all gems, but those two integral pieces stayed healthy. Thus, this 6-man September schematic of Bibee-Williams-Allen-Cecconi-Cantillo-Messick is truly effective, and leads to a lot of possibilities if October happens.

Still, one game separates the Tigers from the Guardians. Even if they're able to stave Cleveland off, it's a very crucial moment in a season they once thought was destined for greatness. And even if this coup doesn't happen for the Guardians, I'd also be fine with them taking the Astros' playoff spot. Just as satisfying honestly.

Coming Tonight: The Red Sox did not know what to do with him, so they let him go. And of course the guys that pick him up turn him into one of the most crucial starters of the season.

For Tomorrow

 

These days, unless you debut in like mid-May or whatever, you're probably not getting a Topps rookie card in the calendar year you debut. The cutoff keeps zipping back up, to the point where it wouldn't shock me if, by the end of the decade, there was no room to do anything in Update except redo half of flagship regardless of anything that's happened during the season. I think about the fact that Jacob Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler, Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel and Cole Young won't have cards in Update because the Topps printing schedule is now at 1978 levels apparently. In 2011 they'd all be fine. That's the shitty part. 2011 Update, the city upon a hill Topps knows they're matching up to with Update sets, at least could include rookies from later in the season. If it had today's standards, Mike Trout would have to wait til 2012 Topps to see cards. That'd be worth way less. 

I look at some of these guys who came up in August differently though. Wouldn't have made the cutoff anyway, probably a shoo-in for 2026 Topps, mostly up to run out the clock. Good previews of what's to come. And that's how you describe guys like Jakob Marsee and Parker Messick. Just appetizers for what could happen in a full season.

Jakob Marsee, I'd say from the moment he came up for the Marlins, seemed like one of the most powerful young hitters in the game. In 36 games he has 41 hits, 25 RBIs, 4 homers and a .926 OPS. He's showing more offensive ability and versatility than a lot of people on this team. The majority of this team is guys like Dane Myers and Xavier Edwards and Derek Hill, replacement level guys from other systems who CAN have good seasons now while waiting for organizational pieces to come up. And in the last year or so we've seen genuine keepers show up, like Kyle Stowers, Edward Cabrera, Otto Lopez, Liam Hicks and Agustin Ramirez. Marsee seems like the next step forward, because you can see the team circling around him and setting him up as the big piece. 

Then you have Parker Messick, who just became a viable rotation option with the Guardians. Parker Messick has made 4 major league starts, and already he ranks 7th on the team in WAR. Honestly that says more about the Guardians this year than it does Messick, they have a lot of replacement level disappointments on the roster this year, or guys who are good for like a month and then drop off. But still, in those four starts, Messick has displayed a starting dominance that rarely anyone else in Cleveland has shown this year. Maybe Ben Lively before he got hurt, but all of Bibee, Allen and Williams have had their awful stretches. Messick, since activation, has a 2-0 record, a 1.93 ERA and 18 Ks. He's figured out how to keep runs down and not overexert himself, and that might be enough. I do wonder what a full season of that will look like, because last year we had a low-K, all-dominance pitcher in Valente Bellozo and this year we found the limits of that. So it'll be interesting to see if Messick is a full season success given a revitalized Guardians rotation.

I see Jakob Marsee having a bit more staying power than Messick, but you can never tell from just a couple months in the bigs. Maybe we'll find out next year..

Coming Tomorrow- After several years of injury-plagued obscurity, a guy that almost won Rookie of the Year and lost to some has-been named Ohtani roars back with a team desperate to stay in the race.

Timing the Eclipse

 

The story so far: the Cleveland Guardians sold at the deadline despite being in range of a wild card spot, while the Royals bought at the deadline despite having a lot longer to go to get to one. And now they're within a half-game of each other. One team going one direction, the other team colliding. And it makes me wonder one very important question: if the Guardians had done NOTHING, if they hadn't traded everybody pre-season, would they still have competed?

The Guardians nearly got to a World Series last year, and they did it with a new manager and a team that had been building for a while, plus a number of rookies that helped them grow, like Kyle Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, Daniel Schneemann and Cade Smith. Then during the offseason they trade Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez and Myles Straw, and let Matthew Boyd go in free agency. Then during the season, a number of the guys that ruled them in 2024, like Noel, Lane Thomas, David Fry, Brayan Rocchio and Tanner Bibee fail to deliver, Ben Lively gets injured after 9 games, the betting scandal takes out two of their best pen guys, and they now have to trade Paul Sewald and Shane Bieber. If they keep around the people whose absences put more pressure on Rocchio, Fry, Noel and Thomas, then maybe the team doesn't fall off this year, and they're actually able to stay in it. 

And even after the limited selling the Guardians did do, as they were also supposed to trade Emmanuel Clase, Steven Kwan and Carlos Santana but decided not to, didn't really stop them too much. Two weeks elapsed from the deadline and in that stretch they went 10-2. Gavin Williams became the ace they needed. Kyle Manzardo crossed 20 homers and cemented himself as a needed power bat. They were chasing the Yankees for that last wild card spot. And then last week they stopped in their tracks, the Yanks got hot, and now the Royals are at their feet.

Now...does it feel to anyone else like the Guardians miiiight be deliberately throwing this season? I cannot see any reason why, after last season went so well, this team now suddenly has to give up. I think this has to do with some of the points Tony Clark is raising in order to advocate for a salary floor, because owners really aren't encouraged to keep a team competitive, especially in mid-level markets like Cleveland. There's no reason the Guardians shouldn't have still gone for it this year, and the fact that they're sinking to the point of sitting out the playoffs seems very much like an inside job. 

Meanwhile, the Royals were a sleeper wild card team last year, had a smaller season this year, bought at the deadline and are now 12-6 since the deadline. Their deadline strategy, for the most part, has paid off: while Bailey Falter has struggled since coming over, former Padres also-ran Ryan Bergert has been fantastic in a starting role, with 2.70 ERA and 17 Ks in his first 3 starts in KC. Adam Frazier has gotten right back to where he left off last year, hitting .316 with 2 homers and 13 RBIs in 24 games. Mike Yastrzemski has 4 homers and 7 RBIs in 15 games, and is already being welcomed by the fans. This is a season that could have been halted by losing Caglianone and Bubic and there they go.

And where the rookies in Cleveland have failed to continue delivering, the young guys in Kansas City have continued to carry this team. Noah Cameron has taken on a lot of the load during his rookie season, starting 17 games, and doing so with a 2.47 ERA and a 7-5 record. Cameron is a very well-needed presence in a rotation that has already lost Bubic and Ragans. You've also seen a breakout year for Maikel Garcia, some excellent August production from John Rave, and even Vinnie Pasquantino FINALLY beginning to get hot. Obviously the stars, like Witt and Lugo and Perez and Wacha, can perform, but the Royals needed the supporting guys to step up [like the Guards' should have], and they have. And that's why I'm a lot more confident in them stepping into the wild card race.

I think either of these two could be fun presences in the mix for the AL, but with an already crowded field there may be room for only one, or neither if the Mariners can stop from completely bottoming out. They're both gonna have to see how their approaches will pan out, I guess.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who...sort of had the right idea leaving Cleveland?