Back-Up Plans & Lack of Plans

 

Against all odds, despite their disastrous May, the Detroit Tigers have happened upon a working model for a 5-man rotation, have a competent and extremely good 6th man as a long reliever who can start again in the event of a trade, and are slowly getting Kenley Jansen within 14 saves of that legendary 500 mark, perhaps the last to reach it for a while. Now...I dunno what the hell can be made of the rest of this team, but all of that is an improvement.

The flaw of this Tigers' team is very evident now. Basing the team on two or three prospects and a horde of handy contact guys won't work if one of the prospects shit the bed and all the contact guys flicker on and off. Matt Vierling, Jahmai Jones, Zach McKinstry, Jake Rogers and Hao-Yu Lee populating this team is a fun concept if they're all doing what they're supposed to. If none of them are, and it really is just down to Riley Greene, Kevin McGonigle and Dillon Dingler, then what the hell was the point. You draft Torkelson high, you draft McGonigle high, you draft Max Clark high, and if it all goes to plan then that's your team. Well, Torkelson's had one good year and now is back to pissing people off. He's hitting .215 with some occasional power numbers and no real outside value aside from that. Clark is still, infuriatingly so, in the minors, and it hurts that much more when McGonigle, who was drafted lower in that same draft, is already a successful MLB player. Greene has been great but he still strikes out way too much. 

The guys they try to build the team around don't do what they're supposed to, and then the rest of the year becomes 'let's try this'. If you keep guessing wrong that many times, they're not the problem. It's the same with the contracts. You spend all that money on Javier Baez to get 1 good season and an immediate injury. Framber Valdez takes a pay cut to join the team, it's his most mediocre season yet. Meanwhile, Skubal's probably off to a team that will pay him TO play well, not FOR playing well. 

The Tigers are lucky of how many guys that weren't supposed to be much have become heroes. Dingler's an excellent hitting catcher, has 19 homers and 60 RBIs, and justly made an all-star team. Troy Melton was a relief guy they gave a try to this year, and he's been lights out in 8 starts, with a 5-1 record and a 1.82 ERA. And Keider Montero's flexibility has kept this team alive this year, being durable and dominant both as a starter and as a long reliever. Montero has a 0.986 WHIP in 94 innings, and will no doubt get more opportunities to start once Skubal is dealt. IF HE'S...I mean, is there any doubt at this point? He wants out, they're not gonna pay him, it's happening.

I wish this Tigers team had a better outcome ahead of them, but the dream might be over, especially if the guys they're really relying on aren't gonna perform while the guys with small windows of success [Skubal, Mize, Melton, Dingler] give their absolute all. Maybe I'm wrong. But it's not looking good.

Coming Tonight: 4-for-5 with 10 RBIs. And they said he'd be a liability signing.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Tigers

I'm not sure what people will remember more about the Tigers' 2025 season: that they blew a commanding lead over the division, that they still managed to beat the actual AL Central winner in a playoff series, or that they still ended up losing anyway. 

The Tigers immediately cemented themselves as a league power in the first half after an underdog come-up in 2024. Then so many of the pieces that had brought them forward, including Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize and Javier Baez, stuttered down the stretch. The deadline retoolings, which were intended to be minor fixes, ended up looking that much worse as the team fell apart. And even if the Tigers stood a chance against the Mariners, the script had flipped. Any leverage they had in the first half was gone, and all the momentum was held by a now much-stronger Mariners team. Thus, even with Tarik Skubal, their road ended at the ALDS.

I still think the Tigers will compete going forward, and a lot of the pieces are still hanging around. You keep hearing they're gonna try to trade Skubal, but you're also hearing they're trying to sign Bregman. They're still trying to move forward, and with Max Clark still on the way there's still a ceiling for this team.

The Bregman rumors seem to make sense, considering that one of the main choices at 3rd has been Colt Keith, and...he's fine. He's a 2nd/3rd guy, and he also played the majority of games this year at DH, which should tell you a lot about his appeal as a defender. The good news is he was better at the plate, hitting .256 with 13 homers and 45 RBIs. His OPS was .746, way better than last year, and he's at the very least beginning to find staying power in the league. But the Tigers thought Keith was gonna be a strong option at 3rd and he's been incomplete so far. 

2026 Prediction: I think the Tigers are going to get an upgrade at third, McKinstry's gonna get more reps elsewhere, and Keith might need to be a backup/DH type. I think that'll work for everyone.

Another 2024 rookie that sought to play a larger role in the 2025 team [only to somehow have less of a presence than last year anyway] was Keider Montero. He was a depth starter this year who was phased out in favor of...Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack. Mostly because he wasn't all the way great yet. Montero had 20 appearances, 12 of them starts, and had a 4.37 ERA, 72 Ks and a 5-3 record. He also went scoreless in 5.1 postseason innings. 

2026 Prediction: Starts more down the stretch, an insane sub-2.50 ERA run happens, has a crucial postseason start.

Like last year, Parker Meadows was limited to only an addition during the stretch run. While he was the 'magic hat' that fueled the Tigers' postseason push in 2024, Meadows could only add so much this year in 58 games, hitting .215 with 16 RBIs and 4 homers.

2026 Prediction: Well it would be really great if he had a full season of work, cause I think he'd be able to put together a winning campaign. I think it will happen next year, to the tune of a .300 average.

The Tigers' bullpen was full of really strong options this year, and somehow without many of the usual suspects [Jason Foley, Alex Lange] contributing. For most of the season, the Tigers used a platoon of two different guys as the main closer, and the most successful one was Will Vest. I had Vest on my fantasy team for a while, and he was a really nice pickup, locking in with any role the Tigers gave him. In 61 games he had a 3.01 ERA, 75 Ks and 23 saves. He was also scoreless in 8 postseason innings, with 9 Ks and a save.

2026 Prediction: Leads the bullpen in appearances, takes most of the big relief assignments and takes the odd save when pressed.

The Tigers also had Tommy Kahnle, fresh off a strong year in New York. Kahnle's output took a step down this year, with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.302 WHIP in 63 innings. He still managed 9 saves, and had a nice run in May/June before things sort of fell off.

2026 Prediction: Rox invite him to camp, he trails off where his career started.

Much like when Mike Elias did it, the Tigers puzzled people by trading for Charlie Morton at the deadline. Yes, he locked in halfway through May and started playing like himself, but he was still 45 and had the potential to fall off. While his first couple Tigers starts were pretty good, the old Morton returned, and he was cut in September after posting a 7.09 ERA with 31 earned runs in 9 games. He retired as a Brave, fittingly. He could have maybe legged it out in Baltimore rather than spoiling a division title for the Tigers, but they thought this might help. 

One deadline deal that did help was bringing hometown boy Kyle Finnegan over after a great run in Washington. Finnegan got hurt midway through August, so he didn't get to do as much as fans wanted, but he was still an impressive closing option, with a 1.50 ERA in 16 games, plus 4 saves. In 6 postseason appearances he had a 3.86 ERA, a little shakier with tougher opponents. It didn't deter the Tigers though, as he's on for another two years in Detroit.

2026 Prediction: Well, seeing as Kenley Jansen will be in town next year, I don't think he's gonna be a 30 save guy, but I do think he'll be a killer, 2 ERA setup man. 

Coming Tomorrow- A few of the people who were still left in Minneapolis when the year ended.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Tigers

 

On June 29th, the Detroit Tigers were 37-46, fourth place in the AL Central, completely out of the conversation. Within a month they would trade Jack Flaherty, Andrew Chafin, Carson Kelly and Mark Canha to competitors. Of the four, only one would make the playoffs, and would ultimately win a World Series. 

After getting somewhat hot before the ASG break, the Tigers were 52-59 on August 2nd. And then the inevitable happened. Not only did this team start winning, but this team outlasted all but one division rival in playoff competition. The Tigers lapped the Twins and kept the series tighter than the Royals did. The Guardians would ultimately end the Tigers' season, but they would do so a month and a half later than anyone thought. With some rookie reinforcements, a Cy Young candidate, a stellar bullpen and some seasons that got going at the exact right time, the Detroit Tigers were competitors for the first time in about a decade, and they finally had something they could build on.

It's important to note that this ALDS-qualifying season from the Tigers came with no help from former MVP Candidate Javier Baez, who once again seemed to want nothing more than to take the contract and run. In 80 injury-limited games, Baez hit .184 with 6 homers and 37 RBIs. It's becoming so much clearer how Baez's 2018-2019 run was his peak, and how he's failed to recapture any of the magic from it.

2025 Prediction: Something closer to his 2022 premier year with the Tigers, but nothing team-lifting.

Also only a minor figure in the story of this competitive Tigers team, former #1 overall pick Casey Mize. Mize has long been thought to be the savior of this organization, and was on pace to be an ace for them til his 2022 injury. 2024 was thought to be a comeback year for the 27-year-old, but Mize could only muster so much, appearing in 22 games and leaving with a 4.49 ERA, a 2-6 record and 78 Ks.

2025 Prediction: I think since the pressure is officially off of him, and on people like Tarik Skubal, he'll be able to deliver a better season. Unfortunately I think 2024 killed any chance of him being THE GUY for the Tigers going forward. 

Jason Foley has remained a primary choice for closing options for the Tigers, and because this bullpen is so good he's just a great all-around reliever who occasionally can get the big game saves. Foley notched 28 saves this year, and had a 3.15 ERA despite a 3-6 record. Obviously a bit shakier [hence more opportunities for Tyler Holton later on], but I think Foley's still well respected in this 'pen.

2025 Prediction: Doesn't hold the ninth all year but still has another excellent full season of relief work.

Zach McKinstry didn't have as many starry moments as his surprise spike in usage during 2023, but he remained a handy, versatile infield bat for these guys. McKinstry hit .215 in 118 games, with 4 homers, 23 RBIs and a team-leading 16 steals. He even had himself a big postseason home run this year.

2025 Prediction: I think Colt Keith and Trey Sweeney are gonna ensure he doesn't start, but he'll be a valuable utility piece for the Tigers.

Wenceel Perez used some outfield vacancies and some brief injuries to work his way into a starting outfield spot as a rookie, and it honestly went pretty well for him. In 112 games he hit .242 with 9 home runs and 37 RBIs. He was also very handy in the postseason, with 5 hits and an RBI. 

2025 Prediction: Starts in right and becomes the underrated third to Meadows and Greene in that outfield.

Similarly, rookie Justyn-Henry Malloy got some starting time at both OF and DH this year, and he made the most of the opportunity. Malloy came over from Atlanta in exchange for Joe Jimenez, and while Jimenez has been excellent with the Braves, the Tigers may have something with Malloy as a power bat. In 71 games, Malloy had 8 homers and 21 RBIs, and was starting at DH everyday pretty much by the end of the year. He also went 5 for 8 in postseason at-bats with a double and run.

2025 Prediction: 30 homers. The pieces are beginning to come together, people.

Another intriguing piece of this team's future that debuted this year? Starter Keider Montero, who took advantage of the many open rotation spots during the last two months to make 16 starts. He'd finish the season with a 4.76 ERA, 6 wins and 77 Ks. He's 23, sturdy, came just short of 100 innings as a rookie, and looks like a great building block for this team.

2025 Prediction: Makes the rotation out of camp and holds down a 3.50 ERA all year.

And very late in the season, the Tigers brought up two different organizational prospect pieces, and even got to use them in October. Jackson Jobe was picked 3rd overall back in 2021, and smoked through Erie in 2024 to wind up in the bigs by September. He was merely there as a depth pitching option, and was scoreless in 4 innings during the regular season. In the postseason, the 21-year-old was facing some of the most powerful hitters in the bigs, and gave up 3 runs in 1.2 innings. Welcome to the bigs, kid. Meanwhile, 3rd base prospect Jace Jung, brother of Texas' corner infielder Josh Jung, was a 2022 first-rounder that was also powering through the minors at a nice pace. Jung was brought up around Trey Sweeney's call-up, and Sweeney was a bit more MLB-ready. Jung hit .241 in 34 games with 19 hits and 3 RBIs, and was hitless in 2 postseason at-bats.

2025 Prediction: At the current moment there seems to be more space for Jobe than for Jung. Jobe could very easily hang out in the bullpen and wait for a rotation opening to emerge [assuming he doesn't make the rotation out of camp]. Jung, meanwhile, is blocked by both Trey Sweeney and Zach McKinstry depth-wise, and will need surer MLB stats to stand a chance, which may not happen til midyear next year.

Coming Tomorrow- The Twins definitely thought they had something this year, which made it all the more heartbreaking when the rug got swept out from beneath them.