Mize on the Prize

 

I still think Tarik Skubal essentially taking the pressure off of Casey Mize was the best thing to happen to Mize. Gets picked overall, has 1 good season, gets hurt then struggles to cope with not being the center of everything. And luckily at that point the Tigers have Skubal playing amazingly and he can just...have a nice enough season without the added expectations. It's worked out for all involved parties.

Mize is 29, and has really only had 2 full seasons in the MLB, which is the kind of thing that happens when your development is held up by a pandemic and then injury concerns. Last year was the fullest view of Mize post-TJ, and it earned him an All-Star nod and a surer place in this rotation. As it stands now, he still doesn't have as much to carry as Skubal, or even late-game dominator Framber Valdez, but he's been very nice through his first 4 starts, with a 2.78 ERA, 25 Ks and a 0.8 WAR. Even if he's clearly a #4 guy in this rotation [for now, Jack], he's more sure of himself than he's ever been and he's continuing his 2025 success with similar consistency. 

It's very funny how a lot of this team goes along the idea of 'despite what you might think, the #1 overall guy isn't gonna save the world for this team'. Spencer Torkelson, despite a decent 2025, is back to flirting with the Mendoza line. Still hasn't hit a homer this year. Riley Greene, while not a #1 overall pick, was a highly regarded organizational piece for a while, and though the hope was for him to be a starring man, he's...kinda doing his own thing? He's hitting .265 with 14 RBIs and just 1 homer. It's a very pedestrian year from him so far. Hopefully it heats up at some point. 

What I'm saying is that, because some of the draft picks have sputtered, the Tigers' success has been left to a lot of other guys, and...that may explain why the team hasn't exactly taken off yet this year. Dillon Dingler's having another strong year, with 5 homers and 18 RBIs, but I don't think it's a Cal Raleigh situation where he can become a marquee guy. Gleyber Torres is hitting, but he's below his 2025 standard. At least Kevin McGonigle's still hitting .300 and filling all boxes, but a rookie shouldn't be leading a competitive team in WAR. It doesn't feel like much of a group effort right now, despite the much better pitching picture. 

The Tigers are at .500 right now, and trying to gauge how much it'll take to overtake Minnesota. I still think they're a competitive team, and have a chance at the division title, but this is an inauspicious start for a team that was firing on all cylinders at this point last year. Hopefully something clicks soon enough, as they were working on a streak last week before they had to play Milwaukee. 

Coming Tomorrow- Young, throws smoke, and is getting an opportunity to start for the Reds because...the other young guys that throw smoke keep getting injured for some reason.

Mize to the Occasion

 

The moment Tigers fans have been dreaming about for years has arrived. They are in 1st place in the AL Central, commandingly, led by Spencer Torkelson, Casey Mize, Riley Greene and Tarik Skubal. I don't exactly think the plan was for it to take this long, but it's clicking.

I think the Tigers have at least proven that even if you build enough of a team from a great farm system, it's not going to click immediately. There'll be years where Tork won't hit, or years where Mize will be hurt, or years where you accidentally give away Isaac Paredes because he just hasn't blossomed yet. But then, out of nowhere, everything can come together for a 2024 ALDS run, even without many of those tricky pieces, and when they do bloom they'll just supplant everything that was working. It is odd that Parker Meadows, one of the impetuses of the 2024 run, is still hurt, and yet this team is still soaring. Maybe he just needed to be the one to light the match. 

Casey Mize is having his best season to date, and it's in a role where he doesn't need to head up the rotation. I think that was the mistake, pitching him as THE ace, when in reality it was somebody like Tarik Skubal or Jack Flaherty. Mize only has 23 strikeouts through 5 starts, but he does have 4 wins and a 2.12 ERA. He's not a flamethrower like Skubal, but he's accurate, consistent and reliable. Finally. And having him in great shape has strengthened the rotation, which, aside from Keider Montero, has been spotless. Skubal is 3-2 with a 2.34 ERA and 40 Ks, which is not a bad response to Cy Young success at all. Jack Flaherty has a 2.63 ERA and 29 Ks, and I'm really glad he decided to come back to Detroit after winning the ring. Even Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe have been consistent, with sub-3 ERAs and positive W/L ratios. After years of the Tigers' rotation essentially being 'whoever could show up', this is a positive, well-organized unit, and they can lead this team far.

The production, by the way, coming from Spencer Torkelson and Javier Baez, two guys holding down previous iterations of this team, is astounding. Torkelson is hitting .255 [cold recently], but he has 8 home runs, 24 RBIs and a 1.3 WAR. Baez has finally reclaimed his contact glory, hitting .301 with 26 hits and 7 RBIs. Baez was signed to be the centerpiece of this lineup, and I think he's a lot better off as just one of many contributors, alongside Kerry Carpenter, Zach McKinstry, Trey Sweeney and Gleyber Torres. It's not really a 'one man leads the team' kind of squad right now, especially with Riley Greene hitting around .202. The collaborative mentality is winning games for this team, and I'm happy to see it.

The Tigers winning the division, and outlasting the competition by a wide margin, would be a really cool outcome, especially after a decade of ineptitude. They're on the road to this, they just need to keep on it.

Coming Tomorrow- Paul Skenes may be the real headline guy in Pittsburgh, but this guy's not exactly throwing badly either. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Tigers

 

On June 29th, the Detroit Tigers were 37-46, fourth place in the AL Central, completely out of the conversation. Within a month they would trade Jack Flaherty, Andrew Chafin, Carson Kelly and Mark Canha to competitors. Of the four, only one would make the playoffs, and would ultimately win a World Series. 

After getting somewhat hot before the ASG break, the Tigers were 52-59 on August 2nd. And then the inevitable happened. Not only did this team start winning, but this team outlasted all but one division rival in playoff competition. The Tigers lapped the Twins and kept the series tighter than the Royals did. The Guardians would ultimately end the Tigers' season, but they would do so a month and a half later than anyone thought. With some rookie reinforcements, a Cy Young candidate, a stellar bullpen and some seasons that got going at the exact right time, the Detroit Tigers were competitors for the first time in about a decade, and they finally had something they could build on.

It's important to note that this ALDS-qualifying season from the Tigers came with no help from former MVP Candidate Javier Baez, who once again seemed to want nothing more than to take the contract and run. In 80 injury-limited games, Baez hit .184 with 6 homers and 37 RBIs. It's becoming so much clearer how Baez's 2018-2019 run was his peak, and how he's failed to recapture any of the magic from it.

2025 Prediction: Something closer to his 2022 premier year with the Tigers, but nothing team-lifting.

Also only a minor figure in the story of this competitive Tigers team, former #1 overall pick Casey Mize. Mize has long been thought to be the savior of this organization, and was on pace to be an ace for them til his 2022 injury. 2024 was thought to be a comeback year for the 27-year-old, but Mize could only muster so much, appearing in 22 games and leaving with a 4.49 ERA, a 2-6 record and 78 Ks.

2025 Prediction: I think since the pressure is officially off of him, and on people like Tarik Skubal, he'll be able to deliver a better season. Unfortunately I think 2024 killed any chance of him being THE GUY for the Tigers going forward. 

Jason Foley has remained a primary choice for closing options for the Tigers, and because this bullpen is so good he's just a great all-around reliever who occasionally can get the big game saves. Foley notched 28 saves this year, and had a 3.15 ERA despite a 3-6 record. Obviously a bit shakier [hence more opportunities for Tyler Holton later on], but I think Foley's still well respected in this 'pen.

2025 Prediction: Doesn't hold the ninth all year but still has another excellent full season of relief work.

Zach McKinstry didn't have as many starry moments as his surprise spike in usage during 2023, but he remained a handy, versatile infield bat for these guys. McKinstry hit .215 in 118 games, with 4 homers, 23 RBIs and a team-leading 16 steals. He even had himself a big postseason home run this year.

2025 Prediction: I think Colt Keith and Trey Sweeney are gonna ensure he doesn't start, but he'll be a valuable utility piece for the Tigers.

Wenceel Perez used some outfield vacancies and some brief injuries to work his way into a starting outfield spot as a rookie, and it honestly went pretty well for him. In 112 games he hit .242 with 9 home runs and 37 RBIs. He was also very handy in the postseason, with 5 hits and an RBI. 

2025 Prediction: Starts in right and becomes the underrated third to Meadows and Greene in that outfield.

Similarly, rookie Justyn-Henry Malloy got some starting time at both OF and DH this year, and he made the most of the opportunity. Malloy came over from Atlanta in exchange for Joe Jimenez, and while Jimenez has been excellent with the Braves, the Tigers may have something with Malloy as a power bat. In 71 games, Malloy had 8 homers and 21 RBIs, and was starting at DH everyday pretty much by the end of the year. He also went 5 for 8 in postseason at-bats with a double and run.

2025 Prediction: 30 homers. The pieces are beginning to come together, people.

Another intriguing piece of this team's future that debuted this year? Starter Keider Montero, who took advantage of the many open rotation spots during the last two months to make 16 starts. He'd finish the season with a 4.76 ERA, 6 wins and 77 Ks. He's 23, sturdy, came just short of 100 innings as a rookie, and looks like a great building block for this team.

2025 Prediction: Makes the rotation out of camp and holds down a 3.50 ERA all year.

And very late in the season, the Tigers brought up two different organizational prospect pieces, and even got to use them in October. Jackson Jobe was picked 3rd overall back in 2021, and smoked through Erie in 2024 to wind up in the bigs by September. He was merely there as a depth pitching option, and was scoreless in 4 innings during the regular season. In the postseason, the 21-year-old was facing some of the most powerful hitters in the bigs, and gave up 3 runs in 1.2 innings. Welcome to the bigs, kid. Meanwhile, 3rd base prospect Jace Jung, brother of Texas' corner infielder Josh Jung, was a 2022 first-rounder that was also powering through the minors at a nice pace. Jung was brought up around Trey Sweeney's call-up, and Sweeney was a bit more MLB-ready. Jung hit .241 in 34 games with 19 hits and 3 RBIs, and was hitless in 2 postseason at-bats.

2025 Prediction: At the current moment there seems to be more space for Jobe than for Jung. Jobe could very easily hang out in the bullpen and wait for a rotation opening to emerge [assuming he doesn't make the rotation out of camp]. Jung, meanwhile, is blocked by both Trey Sweeney and Zach McKinstry depth-wise, and will need surer MLB stats to stand a chance, which may not happen til midyear next year.

Coming Tomorrow- The Twins definitely thought they had something this year, which made it all the more heartbreaking when the rug got swept out from beneath them. 

Mize Beyond His Years

 

For all of the Mariners fans worried about Jarred Kelenic not being MLB-ready after being sent down to AAA, fear not. Sometimes, it takes players a good year to acclimate to the majors, even if they're one of the highest-ranked prospects in the majors. Just look at Casey Mize. He wasn't great last year, and now in his first full season he's got the highest WAR in Detroit.

And the thing is, no one is shocked. Casey Mize, after being drafted 1st overall in 2018, zipped through the minors, posting a 3.20 ERA in 15 double-A starts in 2019 before skipping Triple-A entirely due to the lack of minor league play in 2020 and going straight to the majors last year. Everyone was expecting big things to happen to Mize, who is only 24 right now and had a pretty nice head start compared to a lot of 25 and 26 year old rookie pitchers right now. And Mize not completely reaching his potential in 7 starts for a last place team in a pandemic-shortened season is...understandable. These are not normal rookie circumstances. 

So of COURSE Casey Mize is off to a tremendous start in 2021. Of course he's got a 3.34 ERA in his first 11 starts, of course he's leading the team in WAR, and of course he's even surpassed veterans like Jose Urena and Matt Boyd. When you're talking about a talent like Mize, you have to expect certain things. Mize's control is aiding him greatly this year, and he's allowed the least amount of hits of any healthy Tigers starter right now, as well as the lowest WHIP. 

But because the Tigers are still pretty bad, Mize's numbers do take a bit of a hit in some categories, like wins. And this is a Tigers team that still has several lineup issues, ones that have only been partially rectified by the arrival of Eric Haase's bat. It's also possible that Boyd, Grossman, Urena or Michael Fulmer could go at the deadline, and speed the replenishment of this team up quicker. 

What's been made clear, though, is that the Tigers intend for Casey Mize to be the first piece of a potential future dynasty. Spencer Torkelson, when he's activated in...say...2023 at this rate, will be another big piece. People like Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, Isaac Paredes and Riley Greene are going to be relied on to all turn out well, especially as Mize is looking like he's for real right now.

I kind of hope it works out for the Tigers, and I hope Mize stays this good as long as possible. 

Coming Tomorrow- Getting this Pittsburgh relief specialist out now before he's traded next month.

2020 Topps Final Edition: Cards #154-162

 As we approach the halfway point of the set, and continue to knock off the players Topps should have depicted in last year's flagship sets, we're still covering a lot of ground, a lot of veterans from the 2010s who were still kicking around last year, and a lot of interesting rookies who are already killing it this year. These next 9 fall into a few of those categories.

Card #154- Robinson Chirinos, New York Mets

After a pair of impressive seasons catching for Texas-area teams, Robinson Chirinos returned to Arlington last year to compete for a starting catching gig that would eventually go to Jose Trevino. After injuries ruined Chirinos' attempt, he was dealt to Queens with Todd Frazier to help their supposed playoff push. In 12 games, Chirinos hit .219 with 5 RBIs, and mostly deferred to the disappointing performance from Wilson Ramos. Chirinos fought to make the Yankees out of camp but came short.

Card #155- Mickey Moniak, Philadelphia Phillies

One of the Phillies' most prized prospects of the last few years, and a former #1 overall pick, Mickey Moniak had struggled to hit for power despite his monster high school numbers. Last year, the 22-year-old finally made it to the bigs, overshadowed slightly by fellow prospect Alec Bohm. Moniak didn't have any RBIs in his 8 game call-up, and only hit .214 with 3 hits. Moniak is currently up with the Phillies, and looks to make a larger impact following better power numbers in Spring Training.

Card #156- Jeremy Jeffress ASG, Chicago Cubs

One of two proposed 2020 ASG cards in this set for players who did not make the flagship Topps sets, Jeremy Jeffress was far and away one of the best relievers of 2020, and was a fantastic ninth inning asset for the Cubs last year, so clearly Dave Martinez would have chosen him for a supposed ASG roster. Heck, he tried choosing him as a National, though that didn't end as well.

Card #157- Adam Kolarek, Los Angeles Dodgers

It honestly baffles me that Adam Kolarek didn't get a 2020 Topps card after his MONSTER 2019 second half. Plucked from the Rays in 2019, Kolarek quickly became one of the most ferocious relievers in LA, only allowing 1 earned run throughout all of his 2019 Dodgers games. 2020 was a similar year for Kolarek, only allowing 2 earned runs in 20 games, and being a lights-out star in the World Series. Unfortunately, Kolarek's low-run mojo seems to be limited to LA, as he's struggled mightily in his first few games with the A's. 

Card #158- Justin Smoak, San Francisco Giants

Justin Smoak was signed by the Brewers in an attempt to continue the Blue Jays veteran's reign of dominance on the 1st base position. Unfortunately, Smoak's one-dimensional numbers were more of a nuisance for Milwaukee, and he was released in September. Then the Giants rolled the dice, and picked up Smoak for what became a 3-game run. Smoak never got on base in 6 plate appearances. So away he went again. 

Card #159- Tyler Duffey, Minnesota Twins

One of the duo of Duffey & May that has been a consistently breezy Minnesota bullpen presence, Tyler Duffey had an exceptionally strong season, despite it only lasting 22 games. Duffey had a 1.88 ERA with 31 Ks in 24 innings, which helped the Twins sneak into the postseason last year. Duffey is being used in a similar setup role this year, though without the help of Trevor May.

Card #160- Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

Arguably one of the biggest rookie prospects of the last few years, Casey Mize finally made it to the majors in 2020, and Tigers fans were ready to see the #1 pick dominate right off the bat. That did not happen. In 7 starts, the 23-year old posted a 6.99 ERA with only one more strikeout than runs allowed. I figure you just chalk it up to early-appearance yips, because in his sophomore season, Mize is already pitching a ton better and with less earned runs. 

Card #161- Jonathan Loaisiga, New York Yankees

It seems that, as of 2021, the Yankees have finally figured out what to do with Jonathan Loaisiga. For a while they split him between the rotation and the bullpen, and last year he made three starts, but they're looking like they're gonna keep him in the 'pen this year. Which is a relief, as that's where Loaisiga did best last year, with a 3.68 ERA and 13 Ks. Hopefully Loiasiga can bridge the gap between the departed Adam Ottavino and the injured Zack Britton for a bit.

Card #162- Pavin Smith, Arizona Diamondbacks

In the last few weeks of MLB play in 2020, the struggling Arizona Diamondbacks promoted prospect Pavin Smith to the bigs. A former 7th overall pick, Pavin had been an heir-apparent type for the D-Backs for a while, and in the first 12 games of his MLB career, he hit .270 with 10 hits and 4 RBIs. Already he's been thrust into a starting outfield role for the D-Backs, and is already one of the more consistent young performers on the 2021 squad.

The next 9 cards in this set will go up on Monday. A few very interesting cases, and a few people already struggling in 2021.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2020: Tigers (Part Two)

 

Continuing with the 2020 Tigers, we focus now on the actual rebuilding effort, and the glut of rookies and second-year players sent in to fix this team in progress.

The starriest name of this bunch is Casey Mize, the former #1 overall pick who burned through the minors in record time and made it to the majors in August. Unfortunately, perhaps the prospectors were up to something in suggesting a more prolonged minor league tenure for Mize, as his 7 game, 6.99 ERA, 3 loss run was the result of a rushed come-up for a player simply not ready for the bigs yet. I can only hope that he'll get his stuff together by 2021, cause...I can't have Mize flame out, he's looked so good.

2021 Prediction: Some time in the minors, but 100 strikeouts once he eventually gets back to the majors, and a better sign of what's to come.

Going slightly better was the other rookie pitcher brought up alongside Mize, Tarik Skubal. In 7 starts, he posted a 5.63 ERA with a 1-4 record, marginally better than Mize's, and with more Ks with 37. 

2021 Prediction: Of Mize and Skubal, Skubal will spend more time in the majors and have better, sharper stats.

Victor Reyes, a guy who started 100 games in 2018 yet has become more valuable the less games he plays, is still a valuable outfield bench bat. In 57 games, Reyes bat .277 with 56 hits and 14 RBIs, still working with contact ability while also making a case to start again next year.

2021 Prediction: Will start for the first half of the season, but is eventually gonna fight for Daz Cameron and Riley Greene for a starting spot. 

Willi Castro was taking some much-needed shortstop starts away from Niko Goodrum, and proved to be a formidable replacement with great defensive numbers. He also hit .349 with 24 RBIs in 36 games, an impressive spread that should put a good word in to start at SS next year.

2021 Prediction: His first season as a starter will make him a crucial piece of the Tigers going further, and land him some post-season accolades.

Meanwhile, the other Castro on the Tigers, Harold Castro, had only 22 games as a utility OF/3B type, but made the most of them, hitting .347 with 17 hits. I don't know if he'll be starting anywhere next year, but his bench numbers are still very crucial.

2021 Prediction: Of the young guys in this post, Castro has the biggest chance of getting dealt sometime during next season.

And finally, Daz Cameron, Mike's son, made his debut this year after a few seasons getting prospect accolades in the minors. The 17-game minor stint, despite landing him the starting left field gig, wasn't a lucrative batting sting, as he only hit .193 with 11 hits. But the Tigers are putting a lot of trust in Daz Cameron, and 2021 may be a breakout year for him.

2021 Prediction: Will finish in the top 3 ROY voting, with some outrageous outfield defense numbers and a 150-hit year.

Coming Tomorrow- Though they weren't as huge of a playoff contender, this was still a decent Twins year. 

The Best Team of 2022

It's nice that the White Sox are doing alright now. It really is. But looking at this team, you just know that everything they're doing isn't for success now.

For instance, they just brought up Dylan Cease, who's their big pitching prospect. And he did alright. Went 5 innings, struck some people out, gave up some runs. Nothing mind-blowing, but...nothing awful either. But, Cease is 23, and if Lucas Giolito's year has taught us anything, it's that sometimes it takes a little time for people to come into their own. Imagine on-point Cease in the same rotation as on-point Giolito. I mean, hopefully Giolito's still in Chicago when Cease comes into his own, but that's intriguing.

It's also intriguing knowing that two of the best prospects in baseball, Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal, are just sitting in Birmingham, absolutely killing it and waiting for the call to the majors. I'm not exaggerating when I say that those two could be the next Sanchez-Judge rookie combo. Both can hit like hell, and both could save the White Sox in a couple years.

Now, will they come into a Sox team anywhere similar to this one? Will Leury Garcia, who's become a needed multi-instrumentalist this year, or Tim Anderson, or Jose Abreu, be sticking around to wait for the kids? Or will the kids be the new centerpiece of the team, and the competitive roster will be built around them? I'm learning towards the latter option, because I don't know how much longer a lot of these guys can wait. Some, like Alex Colome, could be gone in the next week.

That's honestly where a majority of the AL Central is. Just...waiting for prospects to pop up. Detroit's waiting for Casey Mize, the Sox are waiting for Robert and Madrigal, Minnesota's waiting for Royce Lewis. I mean, at least the Twins are good now, but...if I were the Tigers or White Sox, I'd seriously wonder how much waiting is really worth it, even if what they're waiting for could be really good.

Coming Tomorrow- It just feels good to see the Reds having such a good team that even the relievers are getting press.