Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: White Sox

 

For the second year in a row, the Chicago White Sox, in lieu of a proven option, gave the Opening Day start to someone I had either never heard of or who only had a handful of major league starts to his name. Which genuinely feels like a sign of defeat from the jump.

Last year, of course, that no-name, 'why is he the only person here who can start Opening Day' choice turned out to be Garrett Crochet, now one of the best pitchers in the AL and the reason the White Sox's rebuild is accelerating at its current rate. This year, it was Sean Burke, who'd started a few games in 2024, and rather well at that. What bowled people over was the fact that the Opening Day rotation, consisting of Burke, Davis Martin, Martin Perez, Jonathan Cannon and surprise March call-up Shane Smith, managed to silence opposing teams, only allowing 2 runs in total in the first go through the rotation. Those two runs were both courtesy of Smith. Granted, this rotation wouldn't hold for the whole year, as Perez would get hurt and Cannon would need to go down, and they'd give Aaron Civale a try, but to have a pretty consistent rotation over the course of the season, with no particularly awful options, meant that the White Sox were definitely improving from being a gutter punchline in 2024. 

They still lost 102 games this year, but I now know who they are. As do they, I think. And now, at the very least, they've signed an actual crucial free agent, Munetaka Murakami, and while it is likely because 28 other teams passed, that's still an average of 18 more home runs than most current White Sox are capable of hitting nowadays.

Anyway, after a really nice Opening Day start, Sean Burke evened out and wound up with a very okay full season, with 28 games, 22 of them starts, 133 Ks, a 4.22 ERA and a 4-11 record, meaning Burke wound up with the most losses of any White Sock. To be fair, I think Chris Flexen ended 2024 with like 90 losses, so it just feels like an improvement.

2026 Prediction: Gets another shot in the Opening Day rotation, does better but misses time due to an injury.

This'll be a cool 'fun fact' in a couple years' time: the most home runs of any White Sox player in 2025 came not from Andrew Benintendi, Luis Robert or even Colson Montgomery, but from middle infield guy Lenyn Sosa, who cracked 22, and actually did a lot of nice power stuff with 75 RBIs and a .261 average. He's not perfect, and led the team in strikeouts with 127, but it's nice that somebody managed to move forward offensively on this team.

2026 Prediction: Well...look. Chase Meidroth is gonna be the answer at 2nd. Colson Montgomery is gonna be the answer at short. Miguel Vargas seems to have third. Up until very recently I assumed Sosa would be the guy at first, but then this Murakami guy landed and I'm now thinking he might take a lot of the reps, assuming he's not a full-time DH. So Sosa is gonna have to be a bench bat/utility guy, and his defense isn't really befitting of that. So who knows, really.

Jonathan Cannon also began the year in the rotation, and unlike Davis Martin and Sean Burke, Cannon didn't display much growth from that dismal 2024 year. In 22 games he had a 5.82 ERA, a 1.486 WHIP, and some time in Charlotte.

2026 Prediction: Okay, so the way things are looking right now, the White Sox' Opening Day rotation is looking like it'll be Shane Smith, Anthony Kay, Davis Martin, Sean Burke, and either Sean Newcomb or a fully rehabilitated Drew Thorpe. You also have to remember that at some point, the White Sox are gonna call on Hagen Smith. And Ky Bush might factor into things as well. I'm saying all of this because I don't think Jonathan Cannon will be doing much starting next year, and honestly he might have better luck as a long reliever.

Since coming back from Korea, Mike Tauchman has been a Chicago bench favorite, and he continued that run into the South Side after two years with the Cubs. Tauchman wound up as one of the highlights of the White Sox this year, hitting .263 with 9 homers and 40 RBIs in 93 games, shortened by injuries. I think Tauchman's cut came because of how confident the Sox were in building their homegrown outfield, even if they still trade Robert. They seem to think Brooks Baldwin is the guy in right, and I feel like they have someone getting ready in center at some point. 

2026 Prediction: Honestly, the Padres could really use a guy like him, or maybe somebody like the Reds or Giants. 

The Sox' top relief specialist was rookie Mike Vasil, who took a charter role in the bullpen and absolutely took off, with a 2.50 ERA and 82 Ks in 101 innings. His 2.9 WAR was the 3rd-highest on the team, and the highest of anyone who made the Opening Day roster. Very cool that Vasil and Smith, two Opening Day rookies, were some of the most valuable White Sox at year's end. 

2026 Prediction: They're going with Jordan Leasure as RP1, so Vasil will be the chief relief specialist without needing to close, and will have a very strong first half. I worry that all that work will lead to overexertion though.

Martin Perez was an Opening Day rotation member that had a stellar run, got hurt and finished the year strong. Though he only had 11 games in Chicago this year, the veteran starter had a 3.54 ERA, a 1.107 WHIP and 44 Ks. He did wind up with 6 losses, which I attribute to rough run support.

2026 Prediction: Somebody's gotta sign him, right? He can still pitch. He's 34, very much still that guy. The trouble is I think Jose Quintana's cornering his market a bit, and the people who miss out on Quintana might have to settle for Perez.

Coming Tomorrow- At long last, the end of December, which means I have to talk about how my Yanks blew it again.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Padres

 

The Padres were so close to making something happen this year. 

They were looking at a 2-1 lead while still at home, were giving the ball to their ace in a game against the Dodgers' bullpen, and all they needed to do was show up and they'd knock the top team off the board and advance to an NLCS, like they did in 2022.

But they didn't. They got clobbered in Game 4, and then couldn't outdo two home runs by the Dodgers in Game 5. The Padres scored 21 runs in the first three games of the NLDS, and 0 runs during the two games that would decide the series for LA. And they'd been able to get past both the bullpen and Yoshinobu Yamamoto before. They just picked the exact wrong time to go cold. 

That, to me, is the turning point of the postseason. If San Diego is able to get anything done in Game 5, we have a far different final outcome. The Dodgers take off in Game 4, at the exact moment the Padres fall apart, and the Dodgers use this energy to win it all. I wish it hadn't happened at the expense of this Padres team, because they were the best team of the second half, and became absolutely unstoppable down the stretch. Machado had his fourth 100+ RBI season, Merrill came within inches of a Rookie of the Year award, Luis Arraez hit .300 with a third straight team, Dylan Cease was a hit upon arrival, and Mike Shildt really seems like a great fit for this team. 

I think one of the wildest things about the 2020s as a decade so far is that one of the most consistent extra pieces, in all five years, has been Donovan Solano. Since breaking out in 2020, Solano has routinely amazed everyone in bench and utility roles, and been a very worthy all-around hitter for San Francisco, Cincinnati, Minnesota and now San Diego. Though defensively he could only do so much as a corner infield cover, Solano was still very helpful as an extra bat, hitting .286 with 8 homers and 35 RBIs. Somehow he ended the year with a higher OPS than Xander Bogaerts, which he should be proud of.

2025 Prediction: As much as I'd love Donnie Barrels to keep this up, he'll be 37 this year, and I think he'll have a less lethal go of things in a bench role somewhere else. 

The big breakout bullpen piece, aside from Robert Suarez, was 25-year-old Jeremiah Estrada, picked up by the Padres after a few subpar years with the Cubs. Estrada had a pretty insane run in May, striking out 13 consecutive batters during a week. Ultimately, he'd finish with a 6-3 record, a 2.95 ERA and 94 Ks, a truly masterful year in a bullpen that relied on him heavily.

2025 Prediction: Nothing that incredible, but a solid season of work nonetheless.

The Padres' deadline moves were all really good this year, and they're all a big reason why the team came alive in the last two months of the season. I think everyone was a little confused when they got Martin Perez, as the Pirates kind of still needed him and the Padres were probably good on arms for the next two months. Yet somehow Perez and SD were an excellent match, as Perez went 3-1 with a 3.46 ERA in 10 starts, striking out 44. Perez's Pittsburgh numbers were fine, but this was a really strong end to the year.

2025 Prediction: Sure, let's keep Perez's strong 30s going, he signs with a competitor as a low rotation piece and has a very nice full season.

The bullpen additions, though, made San Diego even more unstoppable. Bryan Hoeing and Jason Adam both had ERAs under 2 with the Padres, and the BIG bullpen addition, Tanner Scott, had a 2.73 ERA in 28 appearances, with 31 Ks and 3 wins. During the postseason, he was completely locked in, with 7 strikeouts and no earned runs in 5 appearances. 

2025 Prediction: Gets one of the bigger contracts for a reliever this year, and does a decent enough job for them, without being as indispensable as he was for the Marlins and Padres this year.

Very late in the season, to supplant Higgy and...ensure Luis Campusano didn't have to play as often, the Padres snapped up Elias Diaz from the Rockies, after being cut in favor of Drew Romo. Many Rockies fans thought this was the wrong call, and seeing Diaz sign with a competitor must not have helped. Diaz had 12 games as a Padre, and had 4 hits, 3 RBIs and a home run. He couldn't get anything done during the postseason.

2025 Prediction: Is a fun backup catching option somewhere.

Coming Tomorrow- The Padres' running out of steam was quick, but the Phillies running out of steam was sharper, and honestly more shocking.

Paul Bearers

 

Not sure if any of you heard, but Paul Skenes made his debut yesterday. It, uh...certainly went.

Y'want the big #1 draft pick's line for his debut? 4 innings, 6 hits, 3 earned runs, 2 walks...7 strikeouts. He begins his career with a 6.75 ERA, but considering his first start was against a very good Cubs team, and prior to this he was playing against triple-A teams with only a small portion of the talent of big league rosters, I think it's understandable. A lesser pitcher would not come off as dominant, or impressive, given that line. Paul Skenes is not a lesser pitcher. Of the three #1 overall picks who have debuted this year, even with this small sample size, Skenes is still the strongest of the three, despite being the most recent draft pick of the three. Plus, the Pirates ended up winning the game, despite a very tense back-and-forth between offenses.

So what I'm saying is...Paul Skenes may have been the difference between a Pirates win and a Pirates loss. And if that's how things start, there's no indication that it's how they'll end.

The Pirates, to this point, have not been great. Nothing's really changed, but the schedule's evened out and they don't look like much compared to teams like the Red Sox, Giants and A's. Yet they can still take a few from division rivals like the Brewers. So they're able to provide upsets, but not as often as someone like the A's. The biggest criticism is there's just not a lot to this lineup. Reynolds and Hayes are great, but you're relying on bit players like Connor Joe and Michael Taylor at the moment, while homegrown guys like Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales and Jared Triolo are...getting there but not there yet. There's still way too many replacement guys in this lineup for them to be taken seriously, even if they formerly reigned supreme, like Rowdy Tellez, Yasmani Grandal and, yes, Andrew McCutchen, who's very human despite a strong game yesterday. The expectation was for Henry Davis to be great this year in Endy Rodriguez's absence. He is not.

The pitching is the sole thing keeping this team out of last. Skenes and Jones are a very powerful rookie duo now, but even aside from that, the veteran piecemeal strategy actually works here. Martin Perez is having another solid season in his mid 30s, with a 3.60 ERA and 36 Ks. Quinn Priester has actually become a decent low-rotation option, and could definitely could build on his early starts to make something happen. Same with Bailey Falter, who has seen some magic happen in certain starts. Mitch Keller's elevated ERA is concerning, but he's still got the right idea in terms of his mechanics. The bullpen's a little more bloated than it should be but Colin Holderman's still among the best in the biz, and David Bednar's been decent despite some slight injury setbacks. 

This is not a perfect team, and it's not a team that looks especially intimidating as it is right now. But this is the Pirates as Paul Skenes arrives. The hope is that he helps make this team something again, and as they are now they're extremely okay. Maybe soon enough they won't be.

Coming Tonight: So get this. He's a relief pitcher. But NO ONE CAN HIT HIM. They don't even get the chance!

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Rangers

 

All four Dallas/Arlington Big 4 teams have won championships now, thanks to the Rangers' poetic takedown of the Arizona Diamondbacks this year. And the single funniest part is that the Rangers, the Stars and the Mavericks, who have all won one championship apiece...have all won more recently than the Dallas Cowboys. 

Dak...no pressure, right?

I really enjoyed this Rangers team. I'm several years away from the years where I hated these Rangers teams for being too good, the guys that crushed the Yankees in the early 2010s. These teams are more likable, and with the combo of Seager, Semien and Garcia just coming down on you all the time, it's just hard to get around. Plus, with Josh Jung, Evan Carter, Jonah Heim and Leody Taveras looking like mainstays this decade, they will probably be this good for a while.

Martin Perez was one of the Rangers' big pieces of 2022, and after coming up with the team and being a big part of some tougher-luck squads, getting to compete with the Rangers must have been an awesome feeling. Perez's 2023 was not as good as his 2022, and after going 8-4 with a 4.98 ERA and 69 Ks in 20 starts, Perez was moved to the bullpen, where he had a 2.70 ERA in 15 games. Then, in 3 postseason appearances he gave up 5 earned runs, including 4 in one World Series game. At the very least, he got to win a ring with his old team, but now that his value has decreased, that may be the end of it.

2024 Prediction: An improvement in a lower-rotation role. Honestly, the Pirates really do need someone like Perez, and he might be a decent pickup for them.

After finishing 2022 with the Braves, Robbie Grossman took an outfield job with the Rangers, and by midseason he had a surprisingly high amount of All-Star votes, despite being a rare Ranger that didn't make the team. Grossman essentially platooned with Travis Jankowski, and took the majority of the starts, hitting .238 with 49 RBIs and 10 home runs in 115 games. For the Rangers that's low, but it's actually not bad for a 4th-OF role.

2024 Prediction: Has a 'veteran who hits above his pay grade and makes noise at the deadline' season for a non-competitor. 

Will Smith has won 3 rings in 3 years. And if you think THAT's a fun stat, the last four World Series teams have had someone named Will Smith on it. But this Will Smith, the relief specialist, had another decent year that ended in a ring, which, hey, now he has 2 more than Kershaw. Will Smith had a 4.40 ERA in 60 games, but his 1.064 WHIP and 22 saves did make him a bit more desirable, even as Jose LeClerc and Aroldis Chapman also circled the ninth. During the postseason, Smith was mostly used as a setup man, and judging by his spottier track record in the ALCS and World Series, this was the right idea. 

2024 Prediction: Does not make a World Series with the Royals, but makes for a decent ninth inning guy for them. 

And the guy who closed the last out of the Rangers' first World Series win, a good trivia question for anyone looking, was Josh Sborz, who started off with the Dodgers, meaning he's been on two separate World Series-bound teams with a different Will Smith. Sborz was actually spotty in relief during the regular season this year, but in the postseason he sported a 0.75 ERA in 10 appearances, striking out 13 and only giving up 4 hits and 1 earned run. 

2024 Prediction: Sborz might be the most consistent member of the Rangers bullpen next year if his postseason is anything to go by.

Coming Tomorrow- The Rays had awful luck this year, but they actually accomplished a lot despite an early exit. 

Do the Rangers Actually Have a Shot?

 

This morning I talked about the Pirates being a third place team because the fourth and fifth place teams exist, not really owing to their own merits. Today we talk about the Rangers, a team that could very well be sliding into third place due to the total collapse of the Mariners...and who could very much use this to their advantage.

The Rangers aren't specifically a bad team, but they sure have been resembling one. Kole Calhoun, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray haven't been up to the standard they've been signed at, most of the team was picked away by the Yankees, and right now the majority of the lineup filled by replacement guys. However, some of these replacement guys are turning out- Eli White, Jonah Heim, Brad Miller and Dane Dunning are certainly playing worth their weight, despite all of them filling roles left by trades and free agent departures. 

Plus, Martin Perez came home after being in Boston for 2 years and is already back to the degree of dominance he flirted with back in the mid-2010s. Perez, in 7 starts, has a 2.01 ERA, 2 wins and 33 strikeouts. I saw him pitch against the Phillies and despite the strength of the Phillies' lineup, we could not get anything done against him. Perez isn't flashy, he isn't a full throw-hard, strike-everybody-out kinda guy, but he is consistent. He was a strong low-rotation man in Boston and he's a strong high-rotation man in Arlington. And for a very inconsistent roster, Perez provides a needed boost of consistency.

The big problem with this team is that the core that was advertised is not doing well. Adolis Garcia only has 6 homers and is hitting .206, a far cry from his start last year. Corey Seager is doing pretty well, but it needs to be more than him. Willie Calhoun, once again, when the team needs him the most is nowhere to be found. And once again, Marcus Semien, after an MVP quality season, has nothing left to challenge it with. 

So, like the Pirates, this team could get to third despite some huge structural problems. Unlike the Pirates, though, they do have the wherewithal to stay in third on their own merits. They've won a few games in a row, they have the potential to sweep series'. The Rangers might be better than the Mariners right now, and they could block them from competing. Of course, this could all be for nothing. It's the Rangers that get to decide.

Coming Tomorrow- Former Pirates low-tier pitcher, FINALLY turning it around in Denver.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2019: Twins

The Minnesota Twins hit more home runs than any other team in baseball this year. And were subsequently swept in 3 games by the Yankees. Baseball's fickle like that.

I was still very impressed with how the Twins bounced back by taking low-rent free agents and making them soar under circumstances. CJ Cron, with a photo taken after Tyler Skaggs' death, had a season very similar to his 2018 in Tampa, with a 25-homer year with a .253 average. Not bad, but not the best 1B numbers coming from this team (that'd be Marwin Gonzalez)
Why Him in 2019?: 25 homers on a one-year deal.
2020 Prediction: Will hit 30 in Detroit and double Brandon Dixon's team-leading total from this year.

 The other 2019 Twins starter headed to Detroit is Jonathan Schoop. Despite losing playing time to Luis Arraez late, Schoop bounced back from a down second half of 2018 with a .256 average and 23 homers.
Why Him in 2019?: Stumbled in July to let Luis Arraez conquer the position for 2020.
2020 Prediction: Will slowly lose playing time to Harold Castro.

 Speaking of Castros and lost playing time, Jason Castro struggled with an injury in 2018 and had to battle this year with Mitch Garver for that starting spot. Garver hit .272, Castro hit .233. So Castro became the backup very quickly.
Why Him in 2019?: Conceded to Garver, and his lessened playing time led to Garver hitting 31 homers.
2020 Prediction: Will be signed somewhere as a backup.

 Kyle Gibson's stock rose slightly in 2019, as a very steady third-starter in a rising team. Gibson had a 13-7 record with 160 strikeouts, which is a sharp enough year for a guy who's never really been a standout.
Why Him in 2019?: Probably the most consistent, non-showy arm in Minneapolis this year.
2020 Prediction: Will win 15 games in Arlington.

 Speaking of Arlington, they slung Martin Perez to Minnesota, and Perez responded with decent numbers, 10 wins, and the highest rotation WHIP.
Why Him in 2019?: Hung onto the fourth spot even when rookies came in late.
2020 Prediction: Will be a mediocre fifth man in Boston

 And then you have Michael Pineda. His numbers were fine [11-5 with a 4 ERA], but he once again got busted for illegal drugs, and you're left thinking what this guy has when you take away all the cheating. What is Pineda without the pine tar on his cap, or the PEDs or drugs or anything?
Why Him in 2019?: Fell so Smeltzer and Dobnak could rise
2020 Prediction: Will pitch a similar season for the Twins after coming back from the suspension.

 Randy Dobnak was one of the feel-good stories of 2019. A former Uber driver, he jumped through the minors to start some games late down the stretch, and held a 1.59 ERA in 9 starts. Dobnak became one of the more inexperienced starters to be trusted with a playoff start, and...he tried. I felt bad for him, because the Yankees fans heckled him, but he's still a solid arm.
Why Him in 2019?: Started Game 2 of the ALDS.
2020 Prediction: A full season of similar production.

 And the other big starter rookie in 2019 was Devin Smeltzer, a guy who's from the town next to mine, was a hometown hero, and had a 3.86 ERA over 11 appearances, with 32 Ks.
Why Him in 2019?: A good preview of an arm to come for the Twins
2020 Prediction: Will start 25 games, win 10 of them and nobody will question him again.

 After a scorching rookie start in 2018, Willians Astudillo, affectionately referred to as La Torguga, had some similar numbers right out the gate. Astudillo played some infield spots, caught a bit, and was a wonderful lineup presence. Then he got injured, missed some time, and the Twins got by anyway.
Why Him in 2019?: Twins mascot in April
2020 Prediction: Hopefully more playing time. This guy's a gem.

 The other infield utility guy was Ehire Adrianza, and he was a bit more present for the Twins, appearing in 83 games and hitting .272 with 55 hits. Not bad at all.
Why Him in 2019?: With the exception of Luis Arraez who was starting by the end, most valuable utility/bench guy.

 After Blake Parker fouled up, the closing spot went to relief specialist Taylor Rogers, and to say he rocked it was an understatement. Rogers had 30 saves, 90 strikeouts, a 2.61 ERA and a 1 WHIP.
Why Him in 2019?: Closed 30 games for the AL Central champs.
2020 Prediction: Will close THIRTY-FIVE games for the AL Central champs.

Rogers was perfectly steady in the ninth...cause from August on he had SERGIO ROMO in the eighth. Not just Sergio Romo, but the Sergio Romo of yore, the untouchable relief specialist who got rings with SF, was back in FULL FORCE. Romo, after coming over from Miami, had 27 strikeouts and 3 saves in 27 appearances.
Why Him in 2019?: Fueled the bullpen renaissance in August.
2020 Prediction: Another season of solid work in Minneapolis.

Coming Tomorrow- Just a few White Sox. Consider it the calm before the storm.