Fried 'Em And Weep

 

So, uh...guess who's 7-1 and holding onto the best record in baseball?

Let me get ahead of any attempts to delegitimize this, because you know people will try. The Yankees began the season playing the Giants, who have since taken games from the Padres and Mets, meaning they can contend with great teams. The Yankees then took two from the Mariners, themselves a very good team who aim to compete this year. And they're looking to sweep the Marlins, who, regardless of their very strong first week or so, are starting their worst starter, Chris Paddack, today. None of these have been gimmes, and many of these have been without great strides from Aaron Judge or Jazz Chisholm. 

The team is just good right now. Last night, they managed to battle back TWICE against a very crafty Marlins team, and got themselves out of trouble on multiple occasions. The lineup has enough clutch ability to stay in it, and Giancarlo Stanton, Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger and Trent Grisham were all on hand to keep the game close and refuse an upset by the Marlins, who themselves were really fighting for it. Also, crucially, last night Ryan Weathers gave the team a rare okay starting performance, allowing 3 earned runs and 6 hits in 3.2 innings. And let's just check, for comparison's sake, how many runs Paddack gave up in his first start-OH THAT'S RIGHT, EIGHT! And two home runs! You know who's given up two runs? Will Warren. And he's the only Yankee so far to have given up any home runs. And...knowing Will Warren, that kinda tracks honestly. He does two things, he strikes people out and he gives up home runs. 

Max Fried is starting today, and so far he's been just about flawless. 2 starts, 5 hits, 2 walks, no earned runs. Guy's got a 0.9 WAR in early April. We signed this guy to be a solid high-to-mid rotation option, just get up and do the job for 32 starts, and he's exceeded even those expectations. At some point this season, we're gonna get Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon back, and possibly even Clarke Schmidt. And the fact that even before those contingency plans get here, a skeleton crew of Fried, Cam Schlittler and Will Warren has been near-flawless against some good teams...that is a good sign. I'm not saying we don't still need Cole and Rodon, but it makes any trepidation towards a period without them seem shortsighted in hindsight. 

Now, there are still issues, because of course there are. Some sloppy fielding, as one would expect. Ryan McMahon hasn't started hitting at all. Randal Grichuk's promotion seems to have been a mistake, and with both Dominguez and Jones on the 40-man it just seems like a way of leveraging service time. Camilo Doval and David Bednar need to get over their current yips, as the highs are very high but the runs are beginning to pile up. At some point Luis Gil is gonna need to swing in, and eventually something will need to be done with Weathers if he doesn't even out, or possibly even if he does. 

The A's should be relatively simple, but the Rays always know our number. I hope they can stay strong amidst this stretch, and keep this momentum going all year. Cause, again, the people we knew we'd be without haven't even gotten here yet and the team's still this good. Very promising.

Coming Tomorrow- One would have thought the Braves would have a Marcell Ozuna-shaped hole in their RBI numbers this year, and thanks to this guy....not really.

Adventures in Massive Gaping Holes

 

Once again this year, some of the biggest division battles will be fought in the East. In the AL East, the Orioles and Red Sox will both be trying to dethrone the Yankees at the top, while in the NL East, the Phillies and Mets will be battling it out against the Braves. The key is tracking progression. The Phillies didn't do much this offseason and are getting older, while the Mets did everything and have so many young stars taking over. The Red Sox went all in on a rebuild, and the O's still have young guys ready to go. 

So it helps, in order to keep up, to not have massive vacancies in comparison to previous years. Injury-related or not. And so while they haven't been downgraded completely, this might be a tougher year for both the Yankees and the Braves. Even if one of the Braves' big vacancies is kinda the Yanks' fault.

The Yankees made a World Series last year. They talk about it a lot. But two of the reasons why they made it there, Gerrit Cole and Juan Soto, will not be playing for the Yankees this year. Cole is injured, Soto's in Queens. And Giancarlo Stanton, additionally, will be out for a while. And so this team has to convince the league it's still a force even if they proved last year that Soto was one of the few people actually improving things last fall. Getting Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Devin Williams does help. Bellinger's been amazing in camp, Williams is a surefire closer, Goldy is steady and also leaves the door open for Rice at some point. But the values have shifted. It's no longer 'Judge and Soto at everyone's throats', it's a little more spread out. I think this could work, ultimately, but the whole team needs to step up if it wants to get anywhere close to where they got last year.

And the biggest factor is going to be the rotation. Carlos Rodon and Max Fried have both been quoted in saying they'll step up in Cole's absence, and I believe them. Rodon is a fantastic big game pitcher who's thrived in the 2 spot in New York and has been ramping up for another excellent year. Fried thrived at the top of the rotation in Atlanta but was also used better behind bigger names. I think he can ultimately be an ace-type for us, especially if he continues his excellent run, but it's gonna be a matter of if the specter of Cole, and Cortes, chases us. Beyond those two, there's Schmidt, who's hurt, Gil, who's probably missing some time, and Stroman, who's still not a fit for Yankee Stadium. And beyond them, you may have to go with Will Warren or potentially Clayton Beeter. It could all fall into place but there's some worrying details.

The Braves, meanwhile, are without Fried, they've lost Charlie Morton and Travis d'Arnaud in free agency, they're still without Ronald Acuna, and they may be without Jurickson Profar and Sean Murphy for a bit. You look around and despite the presence of Riley, Albies, Sale and Ozuna on this team, you're seeing a drop-off. The outfield going into the season will be Michael Harris, Bryan de la Cruz and Jarred Kelenic. Harris is the one I'm not worried about, he's still a very trustworthy outfield bat with a lot of perks. But Kelenic still hasn't had the overpowering season prospectors raved about, and de la Cruz was brought on to essentially back up Profar. The Pirates expected a lot from de la Cruz at the deadline, and he did not deliver. Hence feeling like a downgrade here. This could still work, but without the excellence across the board guys like Orlando Arcia are standing out more. The team is also going to have to start Drake Baldwin at catcher to open the season, which is a risk that could go either way. 

And like the Yankees, the Braves are working with a strong core at the top of the rotation, namely Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach. Both Sale and Lopez do not have luck on their side, and will need to work hard to continue their 2024 successes, but Schwellenbach looks like the real deal. But beyond him, there's only question marks. Ian Anderson's back from surgery it seems, but will he provide anything? Same with Spencer Strider--is he still capable of his 2022-3 dominance? And will anything come of Grant Holmes, the AAA-lifer who the Braves still haven't figured out a solid use for? I wanna say there's more definite pieces than the Yankees' rotation right now, but will all these pieces stay healthy?

Both of these teams could compete without an issue, but there's enough question marks and potential issues that people aren't completely sold. I'd love for the Yankees to repeat, but it takes a lot more coming into line than, arguably, what got them to the World Series last year. 

Fried and True

 

It really is a back and forth kind of year for the Braves now that Ronald Acuna, Sean Murphy and Spencer Strider are out for the year. One moment your best pitcher strikes out 13, the next your team's being shutout by the Red Sox. Gone is the consistency of the last two years, as at any moment you could show vulnerability, or just plain fail to show up.

The Braves this season have already had to pivot and rethink things a number of times. Murphy getting hurt was one of them, they slotted Travis d'Arnaud in the starting position and used Chadwick Tromp, who seemed to not be aware of how relevant it is for him to change his number to 45 in this day and age with this last name, as backup. But now Murphy's gotten hurt again, and might be missing more time. And yes, this is why you keep d'Arnaud around. For a 35-year-old catcher, he's hitting very well, and has held up beautifully. A lot like Charlie Morton, d'Arnaud overcame injuries in his 20s to become a very reliable and consistent option in his 30s. Now, Morton is probably the better overall player, but d'Arnaud still being a viable option is a great thing. Doesn't mean the Braves won't deal for Jacob Stallings at the deadline, but it's not as much of an issue as you might think.

The Acuna loss is similar. The Braves have been starting Adam Duvall more, and while Duvall isn't having the greatest season so far, he's at least a power bat the fans enjoy. They are likely planning to do something with Ramon Laureano in the coming weeks, and have Forrest Wall and Leury Garcia stirring in Gwinnett. Honestly, the outfield might be the weakest part of the team, as both Jarred Kelenic and Michael Harris are having decent but not incredible seasons. Acuna really was holding that unit together, and without him there's not much. So they have a working system, but it's clearly not perfect.

And then the hole Strider left was one that seemed simple but has needed more ideas. Bryce Elder, given his 2023 season, seemed like the next step to a 5th starter, but I think his full year wrung out his arm, as his 2024 material hasn't been as good, with a 6.46 ERA in 5 starts. Rookie options like Darius Vines, AJ Smith-Shawver and Allan Winans also had mediocre results to starting stints. Hence Spencer Schwellenbach, the newest rookie hurler, who has a chance to either be the next rotation addition going forward or be dealt to a dying market in August. So far, Schwellenbach has gotten killed in both his starts, so if I had to guess..

The best news in that regard is the strength of the other four starters. Reynaldo Lopez had the best April, Chris Sale had the best May, and Max Fried may have had the best build from the start of the season. Fried is 6-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 67 Ks, a pretty strong start. He's also been going deep into games, and leads the team in IP. Fried's 2023 injury worried some people, but he's come back stronger than ever, and hopefully keeps it up. I do worry a little about Sale, and after his recent start I should, but hopefully he's figured out how to stay healthy as well, because he's been a surprise success for the Braves. Meanwhile, Charlie Morton, at 40, still has a 3.88 ERA and 65 Ks, so even if it's not peak Morton he's still got it. 

The Braves have enough going for them that the losses haven't completely ended the season. Someone pointed out that the 2023 Braves had the same record at this point in June. But the 2023 Braves had more to work with, and more momentum. So unless the Braves find some soon, they'll be looking up at the Phillies for a while.

Coming Tomorrow- He came up in a year that seemed like the lineup was set in stone and became a regular. Now he's helping that team compete, finally.

Fried is Good

 

The most consecutive amount of games the Braves have lost this season is four. They've had four of those four-game losing streaks. But the one that just elapsed may have been the most concerning.

Those other streaks were close games, not blowouts by any means. This time, the Braves gave up 36 runs over a 3-game series against the Marlins, then got blown out 1-7 by the Phillies. That's 41 runs in four games they gave up. Some of those other streaks had them only giving up 35, 19 or 18 runs. But 41, and against division rivals also looking at postseason positions, right before a playoff season you were guaranteed a spot in months ago essentially...that's not comforting.

I've discussed this on here, but the expanded playoff picture is much tougher on the teams that dominate during the regular season, because they have more chances for that momentum to lessen. This is why the Dodgers, as incredible as they were last year, flamed out in the NLDS, and the scrappier teams like the Padres and Phillies made it to the NLCS. The Braves have to be fearing that right now, because if this was the 80s or something, they'd play a series against the Phillies, then a series against the Dodgers, and then they'd be in the World Series. But now there's more of a chance that somebody else gets hot right when they all begin to get tired.

And yes, it is a lot to ask for this Braves team to all go cold at once, but you're already seeing Charlie Morton have more human starts, and you already have Kyle Wright not to his 2022 standard. If the Marlins had no trouble with those guys, who knows what the bigger teams will do to the guys that are good. Max Fried has been excellent since activation, 7-1 and a 2.64 ERA in 14 starts. Spencer Strider's having a season that might be more of a Cy Young statement if Blake Snell and Justin Steele didn't exist, with 18 wins, 270 strikeouts and a 1.063 WHIP. There is a chance he even makes it to 20 wins. Or even 300 Ks. Unlikely, yes, but not impossible. And what's more, he seems to be doing all this without screwing up his throwing arm. Bryce Elder's 12-4 with a 3.63 ERA. All three of those guys are excellent right now, and yet I just worry that somebody will have figured them all out before October. 

I could be very wrong, and the Braves could waltz to the end, but recent baseball seasons have made me wary of a alpha-type team [that Manfred doesn't have a subconscious bias for] making it to the World Series again. I want it to happen, because the Braves deserve to see a team like this, and hitters like Acuna, Olson, Albies and Riley, make it all the way. But I'm not sure if somebody a bit luckier will beat them to it or not.

Coming Tonight: A lot like his team, he caught fire late and proved he was worthy of the easy exposure.

Fried All About It

 

The thing about this Braves team is that because so much insane stuff happened last year, it's hard to get excited about some of the developments comparatively. What's that? William Contreras has 6 home runs? What, Matt Olson has more doubles than he has RBIs? Oh, don't spoil me with the news that Spencer Strider's been killing long relief!

Once you win a World Series, it's hard to really enjoy a perfectly okay team again, especially if it's the year afterwards. And that's what this Braves team is right now- perfectly okay.

I mean, as I've said before, what made the Braves a World Series champion, a lot like the Nats two years before, was the time, the place, the momentum, the deadline acquisitions, all of that. That team at that moment was a World Series champion because no one could stop them. This team at this moment can be stopped. They've been stopped by the Phillies this week, because it's the Phillies turn to be good for a bit until they drop enough games for the Braves to end the season in second. 

Like, look at this rotation. Max Fried and Kyle Wright are both 4-2 and are doing well, but Ian Anderson and Charlie Morton are both doing very okay [Anderson's impending Tommy John surgery is staring him down]. The fifth starter spot is just a roulette wheel of great pitchers who cannot get a damned thing done this year. Kyle Muller is struggling, Huascar Ynoa is struggling, Tucker Davidson is struggling, and Bryce Elder, who started out doing pretty well, eventually started struggling. I imagine Elder'll get the fifth spot again now, but I don't know how well it'll go. Remember last year when the Braves had 5 starters and Drew Smyly hanging around for depth? They've gotta be missing Smyly about now.

The lineup is...very okay. Albies, Swanson and Riley have become great defenders but they're all hitting around .230. Acuna's himself but he's taking it very slowly. The hangers-on from last July onward, like Rosario and Duvall, aren't adding much at all. There's no real standouts on this team so far, everyone's just kinda doing alright and sort of getting by. 

The spark the Braves had last year hasn't really showed up yet, and I hate to think they're all waiting around for it to get there. 

Coming Tonight: The man of the moment, controversy be damned.

Torn and Fried

 

The Atlanta Braves have a minimal chance of making the playoffs. The wild card race is gonna come down to the Dodgers and Padres, and even if the Braves do inevitably edge out the Phillies, they'd still need to measure against the Reds...and also, like, THE DODGERS AND PADRES. WHO ARE AMAZING.

So, the truth has sort of settled in. Joc Pederson's acquisition wasn't a 'let's have him come in and make us a playoff team' kinda thing. No, Pederson's purely an outfield upgrade in the wake of Ronald Acuna's injury, to make sure they don't have to keep starting people like Abraham Almonte and Guillermo Heredia. Pederson doesn't get them to first, Pederson keeps them out of last. He's also hitting .273 with 9 RBIs in 11 games, so his bat has stayed intact even away from Chicago.

The rest of this team is just...dire. The catching position is a toss-up between Kevan Smith and Stephen Vogt. The aforementioned Heredia-Almonte-Orlando Arcia outfield is a real thing now in Atlanta. Shane Greene's tanking and Jesse Chavez is pretty sturdy. Swanson's still not hitting for average. Riley and Albies aren't enough on their own.

At the very least, the rotation has shaped up even without Ynoa and Anderson. Max Fried has found his better numbers and at the very least has 85 Ks. Morton's working on another great season, god bless him. Touki Toussaint is finally performing well in the majors, with two excellent starts under his belt so far. Drew Smyly's 7-3 and healthy, which almost never happens. And Kyle Muller has taken over for Wright and Wilson as the surprise farmhand talent, with a 2.55 ERA in 6 starts, and some nice momentum behind him. So that's at least a nice unit that can get them by for a bit, and the bullpen ain't bad either.

Still...the team as a whole is a disappointment. Clearly. They're nowhere near playoff-caliber, and they just sort of have to stew in this for a little longer. Hopefully they stay afloat and don't fall under Washington, but...it's gotta be a tough ride home for the Braves. 

Coming Tomorrow- And the Jacob Stallings award for most out-of-nowhere turn by a starting catcher goes to...

Born Fried

All of us were going crazy about Mike Soroka last year, and then 2020 comes around, Soroka gets hurt, and sure enough we were talking about the wrong young Braves starter the whole time.

The 2020 Braves rotation is weird because it negates most of the 2019 rotation. Folty and Teheran are gone, Soroka is hurt, Newcomb is relieving, and Cole Hamels is still on the mend. Only Fried has really repeated his 2019 success, and he's...technically the ace right now, with a 6-0 record, a 1.60 ERA, 43 strikeouts and a 2.7 WAR, which would propel him to the top of Cy Young talks if Yu Darvish wasn't a thing this year. 

The rest of the rotation is beginning to come around, actually. Robbie Erlin and Josh Tomlin are holdovers from the 'see if this works' era, and they're fine. Ian Anderson is off to a really nice start, with 2 breathtaking appearances and 14 Ks. Tommy Milone is also a fine starting option for them, and his second start today was a lot better than his first. Huascar Ynoa is a decent option, but will probably be phased out if this formation works. And the bullpen is finally performing as expected, with Shane Greene, Mark Melancon, A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek, Darren O'Day and Will Smith all in good form. 

 The lineup is already performing like the playoffs are on the line. Adam Duvall and Marcell Ozuna are red-hot, Acuna is back and hitting well, Freeman and Swanson are doing great contact work, Travis d'Arnaud is hitting well despite declining as a defensive catcher, and Nick Markakis and Tyler Flowers are doing solid bench work. 

This is better than the Braves' 2019 team that was silenced in the postseason by St. Louis, as there's more power, more bullpen action, and more general x-factor. This is a very outwardly good team, and they might be one of the best in the league. I just hope for their sake that this translate to postseason success and not another pantsing in October.

Coming Tomorrow- I figured the Dodgers knew something by sending this guy to Minnesota. Evidently they didn't. 

It's Fried Real Estate

(I'm sorry. I'm really, very sorry. But I had to.)

I really thought the NL East would be more competitive than this. I really did. Considering that the Phillies, Mets and Braves all had competing teams, and the Nats had an okay team with a lot to prove, I was not thinking this would amount to a two horse race between Philly and Atlanta.

Perhaps I gave the Mets too much credit. Although, then again, so did Mets fans.

The biggest shock coming from Atlanta though is the restructuring of the pitching staff. Last year's rotation of Teheran-Newcomb-Folty-Sanchez-Gausman was impressive, but after losing Sanchez you'd think they'd just call up Touki Toussaint and keep trucking. But that was not so. Sean Newcomb and Toussaint are now pitching out of the bullpen, Folty is now the weak link in the rotation, and the biggest stories are coming from the two new arms- second year Mike Soroka and relative newcomer Max Fried, who, along with Teheran and Gausman, are stymieing the hell out of NL batters.

Fried already has 6 wins and 46 strikeouts in 9 starting appearances, and has proved himself a formidable, hard-throwing lefty...in place of the one from last year who got the ASG nod who SHOULD be doing well this year. Soroka, who impressed in 4 games last year, is...even better. The dude has 34 strikeouts in 6 starts, with a .98 ERA. He's given up 4 earned runs in those 6 starts, which, it is important to note, is 17 less than the number of earned runs Mike Foltynewicz has given up in FIVE starts.

Bottom line- Fried and Soroka are insane right now, and are the kind of starters that Atlanta needs to stay in the conversation. Because while their team is good, and is in second, they're not at 1st caliber yet. They're not at the point they were last year at this time, and it worries me that they may never get there. And yes, it helps having the core four of Freeman, Acuna, Markakis and Donaldson all doing well, and it helps that Austin Riley is doing amazing in his first few games, but...the bullpen lacks depth. It's literally just a small enough unit with varying results, and it doesn't seem like any late additions to it have had any staying power. It's small enough that things could go wrong fairly soon.

This is a good team, and it could get REALLY good soon, but I'm not convinced yet. Hopefully I will be by the next time I have to write about these guys.

Coming Tomorrow- I don't know what I'd do if my franchise hero was this streaky.