Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Dodgers

 

You can win 100 games, but if you wanna be the last team standing, it generally helps to have some healthy pitchers.

The Dodgers did not have a single starter go all 33 games this year. Their entire rotation was made up of people who got injured for at least 8 or so games this year, and or were brought up to salvage things when everyone else was getting injured, or, worse, people who are healthy and pitching well but do something genuinely awful and may never pitch again. At a certain point, even the Yankees were laughing. Going in, you at least knew they'd be without Walker Buehler, but all of Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Michael Grove, Noah Syndergaard and Clayton Kershaw joined him on the IL at some point this year, and no matter how impressive Freeman, Betts, Muncy and Martinez were this year, it was always going to come down to the pitching. And in the postseason, it certainly did. 

The goal for 2024 is to ensure that there aren't as many injured pitchers clogging the roster. Which would be a lot easier to complete if they didn't just sign someone they know won't pitch until 2025 to a multi-year deal yesterday. But regardless.

Dustin May, prior to the injury, was having another solid season, with a 4-1 record, a 2.63 ERA and 34 Ks in 9 starts. Then, as is routine, May got injured. In May, no less. And the entire rest of the season would be played without him. That means that thanks to the COVID season, and three straight years of injuries, Dustin May has started a total of 34 games since coming up in 2019. For comparison's sake, Rich Hill has started 105 games in that period, and he's 43. 

2024 Prediction: UH, PITCHES MORE THAN 10 GAMES THIS YEAR. That is the bar. 2020 is the frigging bar. And even then I'm like 'well I'm not sure'.

Chris Taylor has been a utility helper for the Dodgers since 2017, and while his peak era of production wrapped up around 2021, he's still useful in a number of ways for these teams. Not only was he still a strong defensive piece at multiple positions, but he had 15 home runs and 56 RBIs, which is not bad at all for a utility man. 

2024 Prediction: Taylor is plugged into a starting role for a large portion of the year due to a big injury, and he continues to display why the fans love him so much.

The Dodgers began the year with some gambles at starting positions, to make up for a few departing guys. One that I think they were banking on more than they should have was Miguel Rojas, who was traded after playing a foundational role in the last half-decade of Marlins teams. Rojas was plugged into shortstop, and while he's still incredible defensively, his .236 average did stick out compared to Trea Turner's strong work the previous year. It's something they'll need to think about as Rojas goes onto the final year of his contract in LA.

2024 Prediction: Another excellent defensive season that the Dodgers ride out, though don't be shocked if an upgrade gets some plate appearances at SS late in the year.

The other gamble was former Diamondbacks outfield mainstay David Peralta, who'd been something of a disappointment for the Rays the previous stretch. Peralta would be making up for the loss of Cody Bellinger, who just needed to get away from LA in order to get his groove back. Meanwhile, Peralta hit .259 with 102 hits, 55 RBIs and 7 homers in 133 games, which was solid, if more suited to the lower third of the lineup. To his credit, though, Peralta's 2023 was his best defensive season to date.

2024 Prediction: Will fill a similar late-lineup role for someone else. Honestly, watch it be Houston.

As I'd predicted during the 2020 playoffs, Brusdar Graterol has become an extremely useful bullpen piece for the Dodgers. Though he's yet to eclipse Evan Phillips in the depth chart, Graterol still led the bullpen in innings with 67 and in ERA with a shocking 1.20. Graterol is a very careful, not-especially-strikeout-reliant reliever who just doesn't let many balls pass, and his 2023 was his best achievement to date.

2024 Prediction: Sets higher marks for himself in strikeouts, and possibly vies for an ASG gig.

The biggest shocker of this team might have been the Dodgers' pitching staff's ability to bring Ryan Brasier back, as they have with countless pitchers long thought washed up. Brasier was a hit both in Japan and in Boston, and was part of that excellent ninth inning platoon for the Sox during the end of the 2010s, but in the past couple years Brasier had looked cooked. The Sox cut him, the Dodgers picked him up, solved the problem and in 39 games in LA, Brasier had a frigging 0.70 ERA, and only 3 earned runs. He did give up a run during the NLDS, but he still struck out 3 D-Backs batters around that.

2024 Prediction: Well it can't be nearly as good as that, can it? What if he returns to his old system in Anaheim and does alright for himself?

For a year and a half, the Dodgers have been playing an infuriating game of peekaboo with Ryan Pepiot. Here's what they do every time: they bring him up suddenly to replace an injured pitcher, have him pitch one or two decent outings, and then immediately bring him back to OKC. And then repeat like 2 weeks later, and then back. I get it, he's a big prospect and they're limiting his innings, but I feel like they've been so afraid to break Pepiot that they're not giving him the MLB rollout he should be having. Also, Pepiot was injured for half the season, which may or may not have been the result of the Dodgers playing Oklahoma Flight Roulette with him. Still, in 8 appearances this year, Pepiot held a 2.14 ERA, 38 Ks and a 0.762 WHIP. 

2024 Prediction: Dodgers, either shit or get off the pot with this guy. I say they do keep him up for a bit, but don't be surprised if they either trade him or yank him back down again if he doesn't immediately soar. [Update 12/14: WELL, THAT WAS QUICK...]

In the midst of the war zone of starters, the Dodgers took a risk on Lance Lynn, who'd been struggling in Chicago. As luck would have it, the pitching coaches figured out what was wrong with Lynn as well, and Lynn pitched beautifully for LA, going 7-2 with a 4.36 ERA and 47 Ks in 11 games. The postseason did not go as well for him, and his shellacking by the D-Backs offense did eventually lead to an early elimination for LA.

2024 Prediction: A lower-key but still consistent year with his old friends in St. Louis. 

The other flyer the Dodgers took at the deadline was picking up Amed Rosario, who'd underwhelmed in Cleveland as a replacement for Francisco Lindor, in exchange for Noah Syndergaard, who'd struggled to keep runs down with his arm very much cooked. Rosario finally looked confident again for the Dodgers, improving his infield play in a reduced role and hitting .256 with 18 RBIs and 32 hits in 48 games.

2024 Prediction: I don't think he's gonna be trusted to start immediately, but given a smaller market with lower pressure he could finally find a niche.

Coming Tomorrow- Some larger pieces of a mostly-unknown Giants team that almost made it happen.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2021: Dodgers

 

There was a moment this season where I genuinely believed that the Dodgers might be returning to the World Series. And that'd be alright. The NL teams are easier to root for than the ALs if they're just gonna be the Rays or the Astros every year, the Dodgers had two Mad Maxes and a rotation so good that even losing Trevor Bauer to a suspension didn't stop them. Once they took down the Giants I thought they had another ring in the making. 

They did not. But they still accomplished so much, especially in the potential last Dodger season for Clayton Kershaw, and the last Dodger numbers for Scherzer and Corey Seager. So many great Dodgers I already posted about this season, and here are the ones I didn't get to.

Kind of alarming that David Price can be an afterthought, but considering the career downturn he'd had, it's sort of understandable. Price, at 35, is only scratching the surface of his former glory. He started only 11 games, had a 3.92 ERA, only 34 Ks, and didn't garner a single win. In relief, he had a 4.18 ERA, 5 wins and 24 Ks in 32 innings. The bottom line was that the Dodgers figured out how to use him, even if he's not really in peak form anymore.

2022 Prediction: In the final year of his contract, Price will do alright in a similar role in LA, then get traded for a big piece at the deadline and finish the year with dignity for a non-contender.

Another rotation piece that's been fit into as many roles as possible in the crowded picture, Tony Gonsolin continued to reward the Dodgers without having the household name as Kershaw, Buehler and Scherzer. In 15 games, Goose had a 3.23 ERA, 65 Ks and 4 wins, a very sharp, nasty stat line for a guy that most people don't really think about.

2022 Prediction: With a few more rotation vacancies, this is Gonsolin's year to really have a stronghold on the rotation and make his case known alongside Urias and Buehler.

Two years after his late-season debut, Gavin Lux still hasn't completely come into his own in LA. Lux hit .242 in 102 games, with 46 RBIs and 7 homers, felled by injuries and slumps. Once Trea Turner was added to the mix, Lux got less and less playing time.

2022 Prediction: With Chris Taylor re-upped, Lux may be a backup yet again. I expect him to get moved in the same deal that moves Price.

The Dodgers' perennial utility bench bat, Matt Beaty, had another decent year in 2021, hitting .270 with 40 RBIs and 7 homers in 120 games, usually used as a late substitution or clutch bat. Beaty also notched an RBI during the NLDS against the Giants.

2022 Prediction: Similar role, similar output. 

I honestly think Blake Treinen's been doing a ton better since the spotlight of the ninth has been lifted off of him. Both his Dodgers seasons have been great, and his 2021 was his best since his 2018 breakout. In 72 appearances, he sported a 1.99 ERA, with 85 strikeouts [dwarfed only by his '18 total], and 7 saves. He was a little less human in the postseason, with a loss in the NLCS, but he still had 8 more strikeouts in hard-fought situations.

2022 Prediction: If the Dodgers don't re-sign Kenley Jansen, which is unlikely but possible, you're looking at a 30-save season. If not, a 3ish ERA in 69 appearances. 

A year removed from his insane postseason come-up, Brusdar Graterol had a few more struggles, with a 4.59 ERA in 32 outings, resulting in a demotion or two. Graterol did make the postseason roster, was scoreless in 4.2 innings against the Cardinals and Giants, then gave up a crucial Braves run in the NLCS despite a 2.08 ERA. Graterol is still sharp, but he's young, and still figuring things out.

2022 Prediction: A step in the right direction statistically, staying up in the majors all year with some big-game middle relief moments. 

And the gonzo bench player of the year for the Dodgers was former Rays and D-Backs outfielder Steven Souza Jr., still bouncing around the league after some injuries cut his stock a bit. Despite hitting .152 in the regular season, with only 5 hits and 17 games, he was included in the postseason roster, had a nice hit in the NLDS against the Giants, and was a decent enough outfield replacement.

2022 Prediction: Will get a nice spring training invitation with someone, but I doubt he'll make the team.

Tomorrow, we look at the team they beat in the NLDS, the surprise hit Giants.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2020: Dodgers

Not sure if you guys missed it or not, but the Dodgers won their first World Series in over 30 years this year.

I think it was well-deserved. Dodgers were the best team in the arrangement, had some of the biggest pieces and moments, and had so much talent to spare that even with that surging Rays team it wasn't gonna be close. I'm glad it happened, and I don't think it's the end of this team's reign.

A.J. Pollock, signed last year, finally dug into his potential as a starting outfield piece rather than a backup, in the wake of Joc Pederson's drop off. As the starting left fielder, he hit .276 with 34 home runs and a TEAM-LEADING 16 HOME RUNS [tied with Mookie Betts] in 55 games. It's definitely a return to form for the former Arizona stalwart, and I'm glad he's learning to stay healthy.

2021 Prediction: More healthy numbers but less room to start.

After sneaking up last year and getting some sneakily great starts in, Tony Gonsolin was given more of an opportunity to succeed this year, and the unlikeliest-looking pitching phenom went to work. Gonsolin had a 2.31 ERA in 9 games, with 46 strikeouts and a rotation-low .836 WHIP. Oh yeah, and he started Game 6, which would be the game the Dodgers won the World Series with.

2021 Prediction: More starts, more insane power, and a bit more respect from Kershaw and Buehler. I don't think he'll be a novelty after next year is what I'm saying.

Yes, the position of catcher belonged to Will Smith again this year, but Austin Barnes certainly had his moments to shine. He still hit .244 with 9 RBIs in 29 games, and was responsible for one of the big RBIs in Game 6, and literally bat 1.000 in the NLDS against San Diego. He may be the backup, but Austin Barnes should not be counted out.

2021 Prediction: Either he continues backing up Smith or some club signs him as a starter. 

Inevitably, Kenley Jansen was back at his old tricks this year. He did have some more moments of humanity, nearly lost the closing gig, and keeps giving up too many earned runs, but he led the league in games finished and still notched 11 saves. Considering he's got one more year on his contract, he's probably got one more peak year of being the Dodger closer left in him.

2021 Prediction: 40 saves, 3.50 ERA.
 

The bullpen seemed to be about more than just the usual suspects, as three new faces had great moments throughout. Victor Gonzalez, making his debut this year, had an exorbitantly low ERA, a 1.33 with 33 Ks in 15 appearances. The postseason gave him a 2.70 ERA and 5 more Ks, including some in Game 6. 

2021 Prediction: He'll get hit a few more times but he'll still be a valuable member of the bullpen.

After losing the closing gig to Liam Hendriks in Oakland last year, Blake Treinen signed a deal with the Dodgers to relieve, not close; that very much helped his chances to succeed, as he was used as a setup for Jansen most of the time, and he got a 3.86 ERA and 22 Ks, certainly not bad at all. Despite giving up some runs in the postseason he held onto his material and still got 10 Ks, and finished strongly.

2021 Prediction: Gets picked up by a lower-tier team and evens his ERA out.

And then there's the now-iconic Brusdar Graterol. Traded from Minnesota for Kenta Maeda, Graterol was eased for a relief role, and while his regular season stats were fine [3.09 ERA with 13 Ks], he really gained traction during the playoffs. With the exceptions of 3 earned runs against the Braves, Graterol was unhittable, garnering 0 earned runs anywhere else in the playoffs, and getting some spiritedly tough outs with flair. Graterol's exaltation, even at 21, got a lot of eyes his way, and I hope he keeps it up.

2021 Prediction: More dominance, but he's gonna need to work on keeping runs down. 

Coming Tomorrow- The Giants NEARLY made the playoffs this year. Just barely missed. And there was a lot of talent that nearly got them there.

Mook Before You Leap

11 or so years of doing this blog, following baseball...I'm still so gullible.

The past week, I've been hearing rumors of the Red Sox trying to trade Mookie Betts to LA, and the whole time I'm just going '...yeah, RIGHT.' Like, from a logical standpoint, there's no way you trade your star player to a team with an unbeatable lineup. But from a financial standpoint, sometimes you have to do that sort of thing, and this is the second time in the past eight years the Sox have been forced to do something like this to clear payroll.

Now, last time...the Sox gave away Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. All 3 of them are currently out of baseball. Beckett has already been booted off the HOF ballot. With the exception of maybe A-Gon, none of them made huge impacts on the Dodgers.

So now we have this entire flurry of moves, and at the end of it, I'm gonna ask if it's any better than that firesafe deal that LA relieved Boston of in 2012.

So...the initial deal, which is pretty simple in itself, is Mookie Betts and David Price, two very large contracts, in exchange for Alex Verdugo. Betts for Verdugo alone works because there's no vacancy in the outfield, and they just take each other's place. Betts fits in pretty well with Bellinger and Pollock in that outfield, and Betts and Bellinger together is a pretty insane high-WAR combo. Also, having Betts alongside Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Max Muncy and Will Smith will make for a hella intimidating lineup in 2020.

Then there's the Price question. Since landing in Boston, Price has been hit and miss. On one hand, he's gotten a high of 17 wins and 228 strikeouts, but on the other, his 3.84 ERA is his highest team ERA. Either Price is losing his luster, OR he's just not suited for Fenway, which is something we've been suspecting since that deal was made. Price in Dodger Stadium is an intriguing prospect, and it'll be nice to see what he has left in the tank. I do think it's a Josh Beckett situation where they'll use him late in the rotation and he'll have occasional sparks of his former self, but he could surprise the shit out of me and have a 20-game year.

And then Verdugo in Boston is something that could definitely work. It's a little odd now because the youth movement has sort of grown up, and now fitting Verdugo, himself a product of a different youth movement, in there beside Benny and Bradley (unless they trade him too) might make for a interesting dynamic. I definitely think Verdugo will have a fuller, more fleshed out year now that he's not pushed into either starting or a bench role in the crowded Dodger climate. But again, what will he perform like outside of LA? Will he fit into this roster? I think the two team dynamics are very different.

After this, the deal got a little trickier, as a third team was added to the mix, and the Twins pitched in Brusdar Graterol to go to Boston in exchange for Kenta Maeda. Maeda in Minneapolis is interesting, as, again, there's a less crowded rotation picture, and Maeda could fit behind Berrios and Odo. However, you also have to think about Rich Hill, Randy Dobnak, Homer Bailey, Michael Pineda and Devin Smeltzer, all of whom want rotation spots. AND you have to remember that Maeda is the kind of guy who'll be pushed to the bullpen come September due to being the sole rotation asset to have an ERA over 4 or something like that. Hopefully he'll regain a bit of control in Minnesota?

Graterol in Boston works because Graterol is probably gonna compete for a rotation spot in Boston, now that there are so many, and because the Twins have been touting Graterol for the last few years.

AND THEN, the Dodgers decided to clear up the outfield picture a little by trading Joc Pederson to the Angels in exchange for Luis Rengifo. Both pieces of this deal are gonna be crucial, by the way, so it's kinda funny that this aspect has kinda been minimized,

So, Pederson in Anaheim means he'll be essentially taking Kole Calhoun's place, and sharing an outfield with Justin Upton, Mike Trout, and occasionally Brian Goodwin. Trout-Pederson-Upton is actually a pretty great outfield, and if all three hit over 30 homers in 2020, that'll be insane for the Angels. Pederson seems to be finding his way again after a few middling seasons, and had career highs in homers (36) and average (.249). Maybe he keeps the momentum going as a starter in Anaheim.

Rengifo, meanwhile, is another interesting piece of the Dodger infield picture. Rengifo is a factor at 2nd base and shortstop, and clearly is a rival for Chris Taylor at both of those positions. He's also a rival to Enrique Hernandez, whose average has been flighty ever since getting the starting job. Rengifo is going to jumpstart a bloodthirsty Spring Training battle for those positions. It might end kind of bloody- I'm predicting that Chris Taylor might not be a Dodger for much longer after the dust settles. That or Rengifo gets waived or demoted. But it's gonna make things interesting.

At the end of this, I honestly do think it's bigger than the 2012 deal. The 2012 deal was simply 'we have the payroll, we'll take 'em', and then fitting them into a preexisting picture. Now, the Dodgers are reforming their entire team around this deal, getting rid of Kenta Maeda, Joc Pederson and Alex Verdugo to make way for Price and Betts, which is a pretty big statement.

A very huge move by LA. I'm interested to see the ramifications of this throughout the year.