Under-Armer

 

The good news is that Dustin May narrowly avoids an ironic punchline involving his name. His ERA in the month of May, over his whole career, is lower than any other months, at 3.65. Now, granted, he's only started 14 games in May in 7 years cause he's always hurt, but it's nice that it's not 'his name's May but he gets lit up every May'. Which is nice cause until last year, the joke was 'his name's May but he gets hurt midway through April'. Thankfully he's been healthier since 2025. I remember when we were calling him Gingergaard, cause he was a Noah Syndergaard-esque hard thrower with curly red hair, but now Syndergaard's moved onto a career in shit-stirring, so now May can actually stay healthy. 

This has the potential to be May's fullest, surest season since the pandemic-shortened 2020, and it's with a Cardinals team that is teetering on the brink of being good, which is weird to say about a team that's in 2nd place and 6 games over .500. For a while May, to me, was one of the signs that the team wasn't all the way there yet, as he was getting starts every 5 games and not really doing anything to warrant the job. Then he pitches a 1-hit complete game shutout against the Padres and it becomes clear he's gotten his stuff together. His last four or so starts have been pretty good, the Ks are flying as fast as they were in his peak in LA. Right now he's got a 3.75 ERA, 75 Ks and a 5-6 record, it reflects some early struggles but it's better than what caused LA to trade him in the first place last year. 

It's the Cardinals' rotation that still continues to confuse me, because they're rolling with McGreevy, May, Pallante, Liberatore and Leahy, and until recently they were all kinda getting by without doing anything over the top. Placefiller starters really. McGreevy has a 2.99 ERA but only 51 Ks and a 3-5 record, meaning he's very much at the mercy of the run support, and because Wetherholt, Herrera, Walker and Burleson have been pretty hot recently it hasn't been much of a problem. But...McGreevy being an ace while just being a serviceable leverage guy is...I dunno, man. The Guardians can pull it off cause they have Gavin Williams behind Messick. The Cards have Pallante and May positioned behind McGreevy where...and I'm sorry, but all three would be a 5th man on a better team. I'm sorry. I know they're making it work now and it's fine, but...I just don't see a guy who can serviceably nail a Game 1 of a playoff series. The 2019 team had Jack Flaherty at least. I don't know if McGreevy is there yet. Or if May is that guy all the way through a season.

I'm not disputing this team's ability to hit, though, as it's gotten them way over .500. Jordan Walker leads the league in RBIs with 57, and Alec Burleson's not far behind. Wetherholt's still looking like a major player in the ROY race. Nathan Church is real nifty as an outfield bat. Blaze Jordan seems to be the answer at third, and it takes the sting out of Nolan Gorman not being the answer there [get ready to learn St. Petersburg-ish, my dude]. And Nootbaar's healthy and heating up. 

There's a chance the Cardinals hear all this and make a major deal for a starter. I don't know if they can swing Skubal but they're exactly the kind of team that could surprise everybody for him. Or even a deal for Sandy Alcantara or something. Either somebody becomes the ace or they trade for one, and then they're there pretty much.

Coming Tonight: Arguably another team that doesn't really have an ace, and their closest equivalent. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Red Sox

 

At long last, the Boston Red Sox, in Alex Cora's second tenure as manager, finally found a winning formula. All it took was trading away Rafael Devers.

Trevor Story finally had a healthy year, and gave the Sox what they'd been waiting for. The rookies, including Roman Anthony and Connelly Early, sought to eventually inherit the team by flashing cool MLB moments. Masataka Yoshida cemented his status as the ultimate Yankee-killer. Alex Bregman had a year so good it might land him a contract away from Boston. And it all led to a playoff berth, culminating in a suitably-strong Yanks-Sox series, one that ultimately resulted in a New York win.

The biggest triumph of all was getting a Cy Young caliber season out of Garrett Crochet. I initially questioned the Sox's choice to trade so much of their future to Chicago on the basis of one strong season from Crochet, itself marred by limited innings down the stretch. I was worried that the second Garrett Crochet got to Boston, he'd get hurt and render the deal pointless. Even in making a custom in March, I was very skeptical of how long the Sox would be able to savor this deal. Therefore, I apologize for doubting both parties. I whipped up a much better Crochet custom, one definitely befitting of his terrific 2025 season. 

Because there were so many ripe targets to customize this year, and because I was out of commission for a lot of the summer, I didn't even get to doing one of Brayan Bello, who had another really nice year as a Sox starter. It's weird to say this but Bello finally got a season ERA below 4, and went 11-9 with a 3.35 ERA over 28 starts. He'll be 27 next year, and the future's looking pretty bright.

2026 Prediction: Sub-3 ERA, Cy Young votes, ASG nod.

There were two ex-White Sox heroes who signed 2-year deals with the Sox before the 2024 season only to sit the season out entirely, both finally pitching for them this year. One of them was former White Sox hero Lucas Giolito, who blew his arm out midway through the 2023 season [as the Angels found out the hard way], and recovered all last year. His stuff in 2025 was pretty good, he went 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA and 121 Ks over 26 starts. Slightly limited due to making sure his arm didn't fall apart, but a much nicer showing.

2026 Prediction: Tigers sign him to a 1-year deal, he misses two months but ekes out a crucial postseason win for them.

The other ex-Chicago pitcher to finally play a healthy[-ish] season for the Sox this year was Liam Hendriks, the beloved Australian closer. Hendriks has still been recovering from both arm injuries and cancer treatments, and his 14-game run this year seemed to indicate the majority of his strong stuff wasn't there, with a 6.59 ERA and 2 losses. At the very least, he fulfilled his end of the bargain as best he could.

2026 Prediction: Retires.

At the very least, perennial Boston bullpen piece Garrett Whitlock had a healthier year this year, mostly because he wasn't being relied upon to start games. He was the top reliever in the 'pen this year, with a 2.25 ERA and 91 Ks, plus 7 wins, in 72 innings. His best year since the breakout for sure.

2026 Prediction: Knowing Whitlock this year will be a major step down.

In a long line of excellent Red Sox bench guys, Rob Refsnyder has been everything this team has needed him to be and more since joining the team in 2022. All he needs to do is show up, occasionally start, and be relied upon for the odd clutch hit. This year in 70 games he hit .269 with 9 homers, 30 RBIs and an .838 OPS. 

2026 Prediction: When I wrote this post, I did not see anyone other than the Red Sox signing him, as I did not think Refsnyder wanted to play anywhere else. But to be perfectly honest, the Mariners NEED a bench guy like Refsnyder, since Dylan Moore and Mitch Garver didn't work. I think Refsnyder will ultimately work in Seattle, but I want to stress that they got him as a depth option. Hopefully he doesn't end up stuck as a starting option.

One of the big developments of the Red Sox' 2025 season was the emphasis on bringing in the rookies and giving them chances to be the star. Kristian Campbell got his chance out of camp, and he was just the beginning. Hunter Dobbins got to start some games after the Red Sox realized that Sean Newcomb starting games wasn't a good idea, and in 13 starts he had a 4.13 ERA with 45 Ks and a 4-1 record. The most infamous detail of Dobbins' season was that he went 2-0 against the Yankees, including going 6 innings against them only allowing 2 hits. Dobbins eventually made a comment that he'd sooner retire than play for the Yankees. After this, he got beaten up by the Giants, missed a month, then had to miss the rest of the season due to a torn ACL. Karmic retribution, perhaps.

2026 Prediction: Even before the Contreras deal I figured he’d be traded, just from how much rotation overhead the Sox currently possess. St. Louis has much more room, and though I’m not sure if he’ll be opening day ready, he’s got a good chance of being a stretch savior even if the Cardinals miss again.

Marcelo Mayer was the second of the three big Sox rookies to come up this year, easing in at third a tad as Alex Bregman missed time. Mayer's 44 games in the bigs were very okay- he hit .228 with 4 homers and 10 RBIs. Eventually he was brought back down to make room for Bregman again.

2026 Prediction: So, uh...Bregman's not coming back. Everybody knows it, except maybe Bregman himself. There will be an opening at third, and Mayer will be ready. I think he's gonna have a huge season next year, though maybe not as huge as another Sox rookie:

Of the three call-ups in the lineup, Roman Anthony was the one who got fans the most excited. Biggest prospect, biggest offensive perk, highest ceiling. At a certain point this season, Anthony was looking like so much of a sure thing that the Sox were trying to shop Jarren Duran. Anthony, in 71 games, hit .292 with an .859 OPS, with 8 homers and 32 RBIs. It was a very confident MLB audition, one that would have garnered more ROY votes had Anthony not gotten hurt mid-August.

2026 Prediction: Get those posters up on Yawkey Way. Crochet. Story. Anthony right in the middle. This guy's the future, and the future's gonna kick in big time next year.

The Sox made some minor moves at the deadline, mostly supplanting the pitching staff. In a move that still confuses me, the Sox got Dustin May from LA, looking to...LIGHTEN their starting load. Yes, they still won it all, but I think May could have helped. He got 6 games in Boston before getting hurt, and went 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA. 

2026 Prediction: Rebounds slightly with St. Louis but unless he plans on figuring out how to stay healthy for all 7 months, it's not gonna really matter.

Meanwhile, after having a tremendous season as a swingman and reliever with the Cardinals, Steven Matz landed on the Sox for a similar reason for the stretch. In 21 games, Matz had a 2.08 ERA, with a 0.877 WHIP. Nobody was getting past this guy this year. He went scoreless against the Yanks in the playoffs as well.

2026 Prediction: Well, now the Rays are gonna figure out how to work with him. My guess is they start him, he's great, they trade him for prospects and then he gets hurt again.

Coming Tomorrow- The Reds, similarly, broke through and made it to the playoffs after years of trying. It didn't end well for them. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Dodgers

 

You can win 100 games, but if you wanna be the last team standing, it generally helps to have some healthy pitchers.

The Dodgers did not have a single starter go all 33 games this year. Their entire rotation was made up of people who got injured for at least 8 or so games this year, and or were brought up to salvage things when everyone else was getting injured, or, worse, people who are healthy and pitching well but do something genuinely awful and may never pitch again. At a certain point, even the Yankees were laughing. Going in, you at least knew they'd be without Walker Buehler, but all of Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Michael Grove, Noah Syndergaard and Clayton Kershaw joined him on the IL at some point this year, and no matter how impressive Freeman, Betts, Muncy and Martinez were this year, it was always going to come down to the pitching. And in the postseason, it certainly did. 

The goal for 2024 is to ensure that there aren't as many injured pitchers clogging the roster. Which would be a lot easier to complete if they didn't just sign someone they know won't pitch until 2025 to a multi-year deal yesterday. But regardless.

Dustin May, prior to the injury, was having another solid season, with a 4-1 record, a 2.63 ERA and 34 Ks in 9 starts. Then, as is routine, May got injured. In May, no less. And the entire rest of the season would be played without him. That means that thanks to the COVID season, and three straight years of injuries, Dustin May has started a total of 34 games since coming up in 2019. For comparison's sake, Rich Hill has started 105 games in that period, and he's 43. 

2024 Prediction: UH, PITCHES MORE THAN 10 GAMES THIS YEAR. That is the bar. 2020 is the frigging bar. And even then I'm like 'well I'm not sure'.

Chris Taylor has been a utility helper for the Dodgers since 2017, and while his peak era of production wrapped up around 2021, he's still useful in a number of ways for these teams. Not only was he still a strong defensive piece at multiple positions, but he had 15 home runs and 56 RBIs, which is not bad at all for a utility man. 

2024 Prediction: Taylor is plugged into a starting role for a large portion of the year due to a big injury, and he continues to display why the fans love him so much.

The Dodgers began the year with some gambles at starting positions, to make up for a few departing guys. One that I think they were banking on more than they should have was Miguel Rojas, who was traded after playing a foundational role in the last half-decade of Marlins teams. Rojas was plugged into shortstop, and while he's still incredible defensively, his .236 average did stick out compared to Trea Turner's strong work the previous year. It's something they'll need to think about as Rojas goes onto the final year of his contract in LA.

2024 Prediction: Another excellent defensive season that the Dodgers ride out, though don't be shocked if an upgrade gets some plate appearances at SS late in the year.

The other gamble was former Diamondbacks outfield mainstay David Peralta, who'd been something of a disappointment for the Rays the previous stretch. Peralta would be making up for the loss of Cody Bellinger, who just needed to get away from LA in order to get his groove back. Meanwhile, Peralta hit .259 with 102 hits, 55 RBIs and 7 homers in 133 games, which was solid, if more suited to the lower third of the lineup. To his credit, though, Peralta's 2023 was his best defensive season to date.

2024 Prediction: Will fill a similar late-lineup role for someone else. Honestly, watch it be Houston.

As I'd predicted during the 2020 playoffs, Brusdar Graterol has become an extremely useful bullpen piece for the Dodgers. Though he's yet to eclipse Evan Phillips in the depth chart, Graterol still led the bullpen in innings with 67 and in ERA with a shocking 1.20. Graterol is a very careful, not-especially-strikeout-reliant reliever who just doesn't let many balls pass, and his 2023 was his best achievement to date.

2024 Prediction: Sets higher marks for himself in strikeouts, and possibly vies for an ASG gig.

The biggest shocker of this team might have been the Dodgers' pitching staff's ability to bring Ryan Brasier back, as they have with countless pitchers long thought washed up. Brasier was a hit both in Japan and in Boston, and was part of that excellent ninth inning platoon for the Sox during the end of the 2010s, but in the past couple years Brasier had looked cooked. The Sox cut him, the Dodgers picked him up, solved the problem and in 39 games in LA, Brasier had a frigging 0.70 ERA, and only 3 earned runs. He did give up a run during the NLDS, but he still struck out 3 D-Backs batters around that.

2024 Prediction: Well it can't be nearly as good as that, can it? What if he returns to his old system in Anaheim and does alright for himself?

For a year and a half, the Dodgers have been playing an infuriating game of peekaboo with Ryan Pepiot. Here's what they do every time: they bring him up suddenly to replace an injured pitcher, have him pitch one or two decent outings, and then immediately bring him back to OKC. And then repeat like 2 weeks later, and then back. I get it, he's a big prospect and they're limiting his innings, but I feel like they've been so afraid to break Pepiot that they're not giving him the MLB rollout he should be having. Also, Pepiot was injured for half the season, which may or may not have been the result of the Dodgers playing Oklahoma Flight Roulette with him. Still, in 8 appearances this year, Pepiot held a 2.14 ERA, 38 Ks and a 0.762 WHIP. 

2024 Prediction: Dodgers, either shit or get off the pot with this guy. I say they do keep him up for a bit, but don't be surprised if they either trade him or yank him back down again if he doesn't immediately soar. [Update 12/14: WELL, THAT WAS QUICK...]

In the midst of the war zone of starters, the Dodgers took a risk on Lance Lynn, who'd been struggling in Chicago. As luck would have it, the pitching coaches figured out what was wrong with Lynn as well, and Lynn pitched beautifully for LA, going 7-2 with a 4.36 ERA and 47 Ks in 11 games. The postseason did not go as well for him, and his shellacking by the D-Backs offense did eventually lead to an early elimination for LA.

2024 Prediction: A lower-key but still consistent year with his old friends in St. Louis. 

The other flyer the Dodgers took at the deadline was picking up Amed Rosario, who'd underwhelmed in Cleveland as a replacement for Francisco Lindor, in exchange for Noah Syndergaard, who'd struggled to keep runs down with his arm very much cooked. Rosario finally looked confident again for the Dodgers, improving his infield play in a reduced role and hitting .256 with 18 RBIs and 32 hits in 48 games.

2024 Prediction: I don't think he's gonna be trusted to start immediately, but given a smaller market with lower pressure he could finally find a niche.

Coming Tomorrow- Some larger pieces of a mostly-unknown Giants team that almost made it happen.

May Flowers

...Kinda shitty that a guy named May hasn't been able to pitch in  May yet...

Regardless, Dustin May has been a big piece of our umpteenth super-powerful Dodgers team this decade. They're just like the Yankees except they make it to World Series' and don't get injured as much.

I mean...we're nearly a month in and Mookie Betts has a 2.0 WAR, 9 homers and a .300 average. How come Giancarlo Stanton didn't come off to that sort of start as a Yankee after we signed him to a mega deal? Harumph, alright...

The usual LA suspects are leading this team. Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, and now-starting-again Austin Barnes. Bellinger, Pederson and Muncy aren't hitting for average, but are still at least producing RBIs here and there. Hell, even AJ Pollock's doing well. Even rookie Keibert Ruiz is doing well!

The rotation is slightly less put-together due to Stripling and Buehler's inflated ERAs, but Kershaw's surging as usual, and the rookie starter team of Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin have returned to their mid-2019 consistency. Gonsolin has yet to give up a run. Kenley Jansen has yet to blow a save. The bullpen is pretty sharp, with Dylan Floro, Blake Treinen, Caleb Ferguson, Jake McGee, Scott Alexander and Adam Kolarek. Joe Kelly was doing  pretty well too, but...you know...

Yes, the M's just beat them last night, and there have been moments where this team has seemed human, but I genuinely think this Dodgers team has a chance to go far, and I'm excited to see where Betts and May lead them.

Coming Tomorrow- Shortstop for a team that just pushed my Yankees to 2nd.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2019: Dodgers (Part Two)

Yes, I still have a ton more Dodgers to talk about in 2019. This is how good they were this year. 17 players missed regulation in terms of customs this year, which means this team was already awesome...and 17 players weren't awesome enough to go during the season, and yet...it's still SEVENTEEN. Some teams have, like, 3.

Rich Hill has sort of gone on consecutive Uncustomed Heroes years because he's a solid pitcher who's fantastic when he's healthy, but he's never a pivotal performer or leading the team. He only started 13 games this year, but Hill still had a 2.45 ERA with a 4-1 record. So he clearly still had some of his stuff.
Why Him in 2019?: Had a lower ERA than Kershaw, Buehler and Maeda. And he's 40.
2020 Prediction: Signs with a middling team, has a few more last hurrah starts and then retires.

 Meanwhile, Kenta Maeda repeated his 2018 voyage of starting well in the rotation and being moved to the bullpen for the postseason. Maeda still had a 10-8 record with 169 strikeouts, but he's not the innings-eating, high-rotation star he was.
Why Him in 2019?: Allowed 1 hit in 7 innings of postseason ball.
2020 Prediction: Will hold onto a starting rotation spot, and potentially might be traded midseason.

 In Maeda's place, the Dodgers looked to two minor leaguers to fill spots, with mostly good results. Tony Gonsolin, one of the most unlikely dominant MLB pitchers this side of Randy Dobnak, lobbed his way to a 2.93 ERA, and had a 2.89 ERA in his 6 starts.
Why Him in 2019?: Unlikeliest big-game pitcher in LA in August.
2020 Prediction: Will start the year in the minors, but will have some big games in an audition for a permanent rotation spot.

 In Gonsolin's wake left Dustin May, a more-touted prospect who was expected to be stronger, but struggled early, and eventually left a game after a liner to the head. After 4 starts, he was moved to the bullpen, and still averaged 3.63 ERA.
Why Him in 2019?: The Dodgers' second-biggest prospect debut.
2020 Prediction: The Dodgers will make a concrete decision on where they want Dustin, and no matter what they decide, he'll deliver 100 strikeouts.

 Kenley Jansen had something of a down year as closer, which is odd for a perennially dominant guy like Jansen. His 33 saves were his lowest season total since 2013, and his 8 blown saves was his highest season total ever.
Why Him in 2019?: Still closed the Dodgers.
2020 Prediction: Either he goes back to the 40s, or he loses the closing gig.

 Pedro Baez has continued to be a strong bullpen arm for LA, delivering his lowest full-season WHIP in 2019 with a .947, and, sadly, continuing his rotten postseason luck.
Why Him in 2019?: Baez was the most integral reliever in LA.
2020 Prediction: This is Baez' last year before free agency, so he'll have to deliver in order to be on the Dodgers' radar beyond this year.

 After winning a ring last year, Joe Kelly came to his former WS opponents to try to win another one. This didn't exactly happen. Kelly's 4.56 ERA, and his numbers in general, were down from last year, and his postseason numbers weren't much better.
Why Him in 2019?: Solid member of a solid bullpen.
2020 Prediction: Might not last the whole season in LA.

 Julio Urias vexes me. Like, his early troubles made me think the Dodgers had rushed him early, but now that he's had a few seasons, I just assume this is what he does? I dunno, it's odd. This year he started a few more games, and had a 3.26 ERA in 8 starts. As a reliever, he had a 2.08 ERA in 29 appearances, getting his first 4 saves. I guess this means he's better off as a closer?
Why Him in 2019?: The Dodgers finally figured out what to do with him.
2020 Prediction: Will be the strongest reliever on the club next year.

And lest we forget Adam Kolarek, a late-season trade from Tampa who posted a 0.77 ERA in 26 Dodger appearances with 45 strikeouts. In the postseason he was even nastier, despite only pitching an inning over 3 games.
Why Him in 2019?: Kolarek was possibly the Dodgers' best deadline acquisition.
2020 Prediction: A slight decline in production over a full season, but numerous strikeouts anyway.

Coming Tomorrow Morning: Now we get your Giants customs, and I'll do the Indians tomorrow night so we can balance this month back out.