Several Extremely Careful Dodgers

 

The problem with employing 6 guys who famously all throw really hard is that they're gonna be much more likely to spend copious amounts of time on the IL. 

None of Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Noah Syndergaard have made all of their starts this year. Some of them have pitched beautifully and then gotten injured, like Kershaw and May. Some have spent weeks rehabbing and hit the scene late, like Urias and, eventually, Buehler. And the most disheartening thing is the guys who've been injured so frequently that they're playing what I have begun to refer to as 'careful-ball', where instead of actually throwing smoke like they used to, they're doing as much as they can within the capabilities of their diminished arm power. 

Noah Syndergaard may be the prime example of 'careful-ball', in that he was an incredible strikeout artist, missed multiple seasons due to injuries, and has been too conservative of a pitcher ever since. Last year, while he did keep a low ERA, his control was already cooked, he gave up too many walks, and became a liability for the Phillies heading into October. This year the tendencies bit at him even more, with a 7.16 ERA in 12 starts before the inevitable return to the IL. Dodger fans were turning on him even before he got hurt, and were bummed that someone who'd once been so powerful could be this fragile. This, ultimately, is the risk you take when you throw that hard every night. 

Tony Gonsolin is similar, because since his return he was playing a lot of careful-ball, taking shorter starts and not striking out as many. He's been decent this year, with a 3.72 ERA and a 5-3 record in 14 starts, but, like Thor, his strikeouts are down at only 57. The joy of someone like Gonsolin is that he already could fool you without throwing too hard, but last year he was getting the hang of striking people out, and you worry that his 'careful-ball' tendencies might dull his ultimate appeal. He's still good, but he's a bit easier to hit now, as evidenced by his last start.

This team still has enough good pitching for the current moment, thanks to Urias, Gonsolin, and the new kids like Bobby Miller and Emmett Sheehan who haven't learned how ill-advised it is to throw this hard. And their hitting has put them in 1st for the time being, with Outman heating back up and Freeman, Betts and Martinez still fantastic. I'd think this team could get even stronger if the hurt pitchers return relatively unharmed, but this is the modern era of 'throw yourself out' pitching we're talking about, so we really can't be sure.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who started for the AL All-Star team, then helped his team slide into 1st place.

Every Which Way But Goose

 

You can understand why I was concerned for Tony Gonsolin's employment.

Currently signed as Dodgers starting pitchers, as of right now, are all of the following: Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Dustin May, Trevor Bauer, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Danny Duffy, David Price and Mitch White. That is enough room for TWO great rotations. That is a lot of pitching talent on one team. So if you're a relatively normal funky-windup fireballer like Tony Gonsolin, you're thinking you've got a long line to wait on.

Then you factor in injuries. May is injured, Duffy is injured, White is injured, Heaney is injured. Then you factor in suspensions- the Dodgers are without Trevor Bauer for another year and a half. Then you factor in attrition- David Price isn't the pitcher he once was, he's been fine out of the bullpen. That leaves Kershaw, Buehler, Urias and Anderson. And if you're coming in as the five man there, you really don't want to let those first four down.

Now it becomes clear why Tony Gonsolin is killing it so far. This is a pitcher who has gotten chances in the last few seasons, but has always been a backup choice, and is always the first guy to be handed back down to the minors. And he knows it. Despite having a 2.68 career ERA, Gonsolin is not the name guy that a lot of the others in the rotation is, and he knows that if he doesn't absolutely kill it right now, he could risk either getting demoted or cut. So far, Gonsolin has a 1.64 ERA, 2 wins and 18 Ks. Stats-wise, he is doing better than even people like Buehler and Urias, and he has even gone late into a game with a no-hitter this season. Gonsolin has picked the exact right time to catch fire, and I really don't think he'll be the one that gets knocked down once somebody gets activated again. 

The Dodgers themselves are doing pretty damn well. The core of Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts is one any team would want any day of the week. Kershaw is turning in a legendary caliber year, and he can still go way beyond 5 innings a start. Kimbrel is a decent enough choice at closer, though some people have pointed out that due to the increase in blowouts, the team hasn't especially needed him. And Gavin Lux has finally matured into an excellent defender in the infield. 

I know that this is a pretty tight division, but the Dodgers have come off really strong in the first quarter of the year, and could have enough to hold off competitors. That is, if the competitors will let them.

Coming Tonight: A current saves leader that is either for real or just having a good year.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2021: Dodgers

 

There was a moment this season where I genuinely believed that the Dodgers might be returning to the World Series. And that'd be alright. The NL teams are easier to root for than the ALs if they're just gonna be the Rays or the Astros every year, the Dodgers had two Mad Maxes and a rotation so good that even losing Trevor Bauer to a suspension didn't stop them. Once they took down the Giants I thought they had another ring in the making. 

They did not. But they still accomplished so much, especially in the potential last Dodger season for Clayton Kershaw, and the last Dodger numbers for Scherzer and Corey Seager. So many great Dodgers I already posted about this season, and here are the ones I didn't get to.

Kind of alarming that David Price can be an afterthought, but considering the career downturn he'd had, it's sort of understandable. Price, at 35, is only scratching the surface of his former glory. He started only 11 games, had a 3.92 ERA, only 34 Ks, and didn't garner a single win. In relief, he had a 4.18 ERA, 5 wins and 24 Ks in 32 innings. The bottom line was that the Dodgers figured out how to use him, even if he's not really in peak form anymore.

2022 Prediction: In the final year of his contract, Price will do alright in a similar role in LA, then get traded for a big piece at the deadline and finish the year with dignity for a non-contender.

Another rotation piece that's been fit into as many roles as possible in the crowded picture, Tony Gonsolin continued to reward the Dodgers without having the household name as Kershaw, Buehler and Scherzer. In 15 games, Goose had a 3.23 ERA, 65 Ks and 4 wins, a very sharp, nasty stat line for a guy that most people don't really think about.

2022 Prediction: With a few more rotation vacancies, this is Gonsolin's year to really have a stronghold on the rotation and make his case known alongside Urias and Buehler.

Two years after his late-season debut, Gavin Lux still hasn't completely come into his own in LA. Lux hit .242 in 102 games, with 46 RBIs and 7 homers, felled by injuries and slumps. Once Trea Turner was added to the mix, Lux got less and less playing time.

2022 Prediction: With Chris Taylor re-upped, Lux may be a backup yet again. I expect him to get moved in the same deal that moves Price.

The Dodgers' perennial utility bench bat, Matt Beaty, had another decent year in 2021, hitting .270 with 40 RBIs and 7 homers in 120 games, usually used as a late substitution or clutch bat. Beaty also notched an RBI during the NLDS against the Giants.

2022 Prediction: Similar role, similar output. 

I honestly think Blake Treinen's been doing a ton better since the spotlight of the ninth has been lifted off of him. Both his Dodgers seasons have been great, and his 2021 was his best since his 2018 breakout. In 72 appearances, he sported a 1.99 ERA, with 85 strikeouts [dwarfed only by his '18 total], and 7 saves. He was a little less human in the postseason, with a loss in the NLCS, but he still had 8 more strikeouts in hard-fought situations.

2022 Prediction: If the Dodgers don't re-sign Kenley Jansen, which is unlikely but possible, you're looking at a 30-save season. If not, a 3ish ERA in 69 appearances. 

A year removed from his insane postseason come-up, Brusdar Graterol had a few more struggles, with a 4.59 ERA in 32 outings, resulting in a demotion or two. Graterol did make the postseason roster, was scoreless in 4.2 innings against the Cardinals and Giants, then gave up a crucial Braves run in the NLCS despite a 2.08 ERA. Graterol is still sharp, but he's young, and still figuring things out.

2022 Prediction: A step in the right direction statistically, staying up in the majors all year with some big-game middle relief moments. 

And the gonzo bench player of the year for the Dodgers was former Rays and D-Backs outfielder Steven Souza Jr., still bouncing around the league after some injuries cut his stock a bit. Despite hitting .152 in the regular season, with only 5 hits and 17 games, he was included in the postseason roster, had a nice hit in the NLDS against the Giants, and was a decent enough outfield replacement.

2022 Prediction: Will get a nice spring training invitation with someone, but I doubt he'll make the team.

Tomorrow, we look at the team they beat in the NLDS, the surprise hit Giants.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2020: Dodgers

Not sure if you guys missed it or not, but the Dodgers won their first World Series in over 30 years this year.

I think it was well-deserved. Dodgers were the best team in the arrangement, had some of the biggest pieces and moments, and had so much talent to spare that even with that surging Rays team it wasn't gonna be close. I'm glad it happened, and I don't think it's the end of this team's reign.

A.J. Pollock, signed last year, finally dug into his potential as a starting outfield piece rather than a backup, in the wake of Joc Pederson's drop off. As the starting left fielder, he hit .276 with 34 home runs and a TEAM-LEADING 16 HOME RUNS [tied with Mookie Betts] in 55 games. It's definitely a return to form for the former Arizona stalwart, and I'm glad he's learning to stay healthy.

2021 Prediction: More healthy numbers but less room to start.

After sneaking up last year and getting some sneakily great starts in, Tony Gonsolin was given more of an opportunity to succeed this year, and the unlikeliest-looking pitching phenom went to work. Gonsolin had a 2.31 ERA in 9 games, with 46 strikeouts and a rotation-low .836 WHIP. Oh yeah, and he started Game 6, which would be the game the Dodgers won the World Series with.

2021 Prediction: More starts, more insane power, and a bit more respect from Kershaw and Buehler. I don't think he'll be a novelty after next year is what I'm saying.

Yes, the position of catcher belonged to Will Smith again this year, but Austin Barnes certainly had his moments to shine. He still hit .244 with 9 RBIs in 29 games, and was responsible for one of the big RBIs in Game 6, and literally bat 1.000 in the NLDS against San Diego. He may be the backup, but Austin Barnes should not be counted out.

2021 Prediction: Either he continues backing up Smith or some club signs him as a starter. 

Inevitably, Kenley Jansen was back at his old tricks this year. He did have some more moments of humanity, nearly lost the closing gig, and keeps giving up too many earned runs, but he led the league in games finished and still notched 11 saves. Considering he's got one more year on his contract, he's probably got one more peak year of being the Dodger closer left in him.

2021 Prediction: 40 saves, 3.50 ERA.
 

The bullpen seemed to be about more than just the usual suspects, as three new faces had great moments throughout. Victor Gonzalez, making his debut this year, had an exorbitantly low ERA, a 1.33 with 33 Ks in 15 appearances. The postseason gave him a 2.70 ERA and 5 more Ks, including some in Game 6. 

2021 Prediction: He'll get hit a few more times but he'll still be a valuable member of the bullpen.

After losing the closing gig to Liam Hendriks in Oakland last year, Blake Treinen signed a deal with the Dodgers to relieve, not close; that very much helped his chances to succeed, as he was used as a setup for Jansen most of the time, and he got a 3.86 ERA and 22 Ks, certainly not bad at all. Despite giving up some runs in the postseason he held onto his material and still got 10 Ks, and finished strongly.

2021 Prediction: Gets picked up by a lower-tier team and evens his ERA out.

And then there's the now-iconic Brusdar Graterol. Traded from Minnesota for Kenta Maeda, Graterol was eased for a relief role, and while his regular season stats were fine [3.09 ERA with 13 Ks], he really gained traction during the playoffs. With the exceptions of 3 earned runs against the Braves, Graterol was unhittable, garnering 0 earned runs anywhere else in the playoffs, and getting some spiritedly tough outs with flair. Graterol's exaltation, even at 21, got a lot of eyes his way, and I hope he keeps it up.

2021 Prediction: More dominance, but he's gonna need to work on keeping runs down. 

Coming Tomorrow- The Giants NEARLY made the playoffs this year. Just barely missed. And there was a lot of talent that nearly got them there.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2019: Dodgers (Part Two)

Yes, I still have a ton more Dodgers to talk about in 2019. This is how good they were this year. 17 players missed regulation in terms of customs this year, which means this team was already awesome...and 17 players weren't awesome enough to go during the season, and yet...it's still SEVENTEEN. Some teams have, like, 3.

Rich Hill has sort of gone on consecutive Uncustomed Heroes years because he's a solid pitcher who's fantastic when he's healthy, but he's never a pivotal performer or leading the team. He only started 13 games this year, but Hill still had a 2.45 ERA with a 4-1 record. So he clearly still had some of his stuff.
Why Him in 2019?: Had a lower ERA than Kershaw, Buehler and Maeda. And he's 40.
2020 Prediction: Signs with a middling team, has a few more last hurrah starts and then retires.

 Meanwhile, Kenta Maeda repeated his 2018 voyage of starting well in the rotation and being moved to the bullpen for the postseason. Maeda still had a 10-8 record with 169 strikeouts, but he's not the innings-eating, high-rotation star he was.
Why Him in 2019?: Allowed 1 hit in 7 innings of postseason ball.
2020 Prediction: Will hold onto a starting rotation spot, and potentially might be traded midseason.

 In Maeda's place, the Dodgers looked to two minor leaguers to fill spots, with mostly good results. Tony Gonsolin, one of the most unlikely dominant MLB pitchers this side of Randy Dobnak, lobbed his way to a 2.93 ERA, and had a 2.89 ERA in his 6 starts.
Why Him in 2019?: Unlikeliest big-game pitcher in LA in August.
2020 Prediction: Will start the year in the minors, but will have some big games in an audition for a permanent rotation spot.

 In Gonsolin's wake left Dustin May, a more-touted prospect who was expected to be stronger, but struggled early, and eventually left a game after a liner to the head. After 4 starts, he was moved to the bullpen, and still averaged 3.63 ERA.
Why Him in 2019?: The Dodgers' second-biggest prospect debut.
2020 Prediction: The Dodgers will make a concrete decision on where they want Dustin, and no matter what they decide, he'll deliver 100 strikeouts.

 Kenley Jansen had something of a down year as closer, which is odd for a perennially dominant guy like Jansen. His 33 saves were his lowest season total since 2013, and his 8 blown saves was his highest season total ever.
Why Him in 2019?: Still closed the Dodgers.
2020 Prediction: Either he goes back to the 40s, or he loses the closing gig.

 Pedro Baez has continued to be a strong bullpen arm for LA, delivering his lowest full-season WHIP in 2019 with a .947, and, sadly, continuing his rotten postseason luck.
Why Him in 2019?: Baez was the most integral reliever in LA.
2020 Prediction: This is Baez' last year before free agency, so he'll have to deliver in order to be on the Dodgers' radar beyond this year.

 After winning a ring last year, Joe Kelly came to his former WS opponents to try to win another one. This didn't exactly happen. Kelly's 4.56 ERA, and his numbers in general, were down from last year, and his postseason numbers weren't much better.
Why Him in 2019?: Solid member of a solid bullpen.
2020 Prediction: Might not last the whole season in LA.

 Julio Urias vexes me. Like, his early troubles made me think the Dodgers had rushed him early, but now that he's had a few seasons, I just assume this is what he does? I dunno, it's odd. This year he started a few more games, and had a 3.26 ERA in 8 starts. As a reliever, he had a 2.08 ERA in 29 appearances, getting his first 4 saves. I guess this means he's better off as a closer?
Why Him in 2019?: The Dodgers finally figured out what to do with him.
2020 Prediction: Will be the strongest reliever on the club next year.

And lest we forget Adam Kolarek, a late-season trade from Tampa who posted a 0.77 ERA in 26 Dodger appearances with 45 strikeouts. In the postseason he was even nastier, despite only pitching an inning over 3 games.
Why Him in 2019?: Kolarek was possibly the Dodgers' best deadline acquisition.
2020 Prediction: A slight decline in production over a full season, but numerous strikeouts anyway.

Coming Tomorrow Morning: Now we get your Giants customs, and I'll do the Indians tomorrow night so we can balance this month back out.