Breaking Rox in the Hot Sun

 

The Rockies only have three wins so far in June. All of them were by one point, two of them were against the Cardinals. The rest, the losses, are games where the team gave up 4 or more runs. 

The Colorado Rockies: The Wins Are Close, But The Losses Sure Aren't.

It's honestly wild that Cal Quantrill still has a 3.30 ERA. Even Austin Gomber's has gone above 4 at this point, despite his strong start. And Quantrill isn't a particularly powerful pitcher, he's only struck out 56, but he's not giving up many runs, or hits. He just keeps batters down, and doesn't make many debilitating mistakes. He's 6-4 right now, and clearly the best starter on this team. I am worried about the long term success of somebody like Quantrill heading up a rotation, as in San Diego in Cleveland he was always better at being a 4th or 5th guy. I mean, so were Gomber and Hudson and now they're sort of struggling anyhow.

The fundamental issue here is that, with Justin Lawrence and Jake Bird hurt, the next nearest bullpen pieces, guys like Tyler Kinley, Nick Mears and Anthony Molina, are getting massacred. All of those guys have ERAs over 6.50, and those...are the main options. At least Victor Vodnik and Jalen Beeks are better, but batters are even getting to THEM now. And the wild part is that Mears, Kinley and Molina combined don't have as many losses as Dakota Hudson. I just picture Freeland, Marquez and Senza just sitting on the bench in the bullpen shaking their heads every night.

There are people hitting well but many of them, including Elias Diaz, Jacob Stallings and possibly even Charlie Blackmon if they want to be particularly cruel, might be gone in a month or so. Diaz has been an option for many teams needing catching help, and Stallings flirting with .300 as a backup is only boosting his own appeal. McMahon, Tovar and Doyle have all fallen into place, they're doing the best they can. They've thrown in Adael Amador at 2nd, and he hasn't really done anything yet but he keeps threatening to. Jones and Montero still aren't hitting, Goodman and Toglia still haven't shown up and Bryant's still hurt. So the struggle continues.

This is very much like 2014 or 2015 for Colorado, because you can see some of these pieces begin to crop up and inherit the team. If Ezequiel Tovar continues on this pace he might be yet another legendary shortstop for the Rockies. It just sucks that it continues to be such a pitching suck, regardless of how hard anyone's trying to not be lit up in Coors Field. 

Coming Tonight: Setting a team record for wins to start a career should have been a tipoff that he'd be something. But we all wondered if he'd ever be something again. Well...turns out he still had a lot left to show for himself. 

A Word on Second-Generationers

 

We're...we're really at a larger peak of sons of MLB players right now than we were in 1989, when Ken Griffey Jr., Moises Alou and Barry Bonds were running around. How insane is that?

I think this new wave of second generation major leaguers was most evident during the draft last year, when Baltimore's choice for the top 2 picks were between Jackson Holliday, son of Matt Holliday, and Druw Jones, son of Andruw Jones. Either way, a second-generationer is going first, and so soon after Jack Leiter as well. We are really well in this, and it only seldom occurs to people.

Hell, prepping a custom post today I realized the next two I had ready were Cal Quantrill and Ke'Bryan Hayes, whose dads probably squared off at some point in the 90s. 

All this at the point where Hollywood is having a nepotism crisis, saying that people are succeeding because they have famous parents, all while one of the few *good* nepo babies, Jamie Lee Curtis, just won an Oscar. In the MLB it's different because we've obviously seen people be prized because of their name basis but struggle while making their own luck, like Tony Gwynn Jr., Tony Armas Jr., Josh Barfield, Eric Young Jr, etc. The second-generationers that become huge, like your Ken Griffey Jr's, your Fernando Tatis Jr's, your Vladimir Guerrero Jr's, they only bring so much from their father and they come into their own as different, intriguing players themselves. 

As is custom for a lot of Spring Training posts, I went through the rosters and tried to find a second-generationer for each team. Let's see how well I did.

Astros: Lance McCullers Jr., he of the tipped pitches and April injuries. 

Blue Jays: Your 2019 big three, Guerrero, Bichette and Biggio. Bo and Vlad have done a nice job outrunning the legends of their fathers, Biggio has struggled. There is now the addition of Daulton Varsho, whose dad Gary played for a bit.

Braves: Just Ronnie Acuna

Cubs: Just Cody Bellinger. He's at the very least eclipsed his dad's MLB work, but man is he in danger of losing his late-2010s clout..

Diamondbacks: I learned very recently that Buddy Kennedy is Don Money's grandson, which is honestly pretty cool. Way too soon to say if he eclipses that benchmark, though.

Dodgers: Does Trayce Thompson count if his brother's in the NBA? Probably not but it's definitely important.

Giants: Little known fact, Mike Yastrzemski's dad was drafted by the Braves, and played a few years for Durham and Birmingham. Even without the Carl factor he'd be a second-generationer by proxy, though having your grandfather be a Sox hero is a plus. Also, Joc Pederson's dad had a cup of coffee with the Dodgers.

Guardians: Plesac and Quantrill, though Plesac's uncle was the reliever, not his dad.

Padres: Tatis, but also Ryan Weathers, whose dad was a reliever in the 90s and 00s. 

Phillies: Most notably Kody Clemens, who is amusingly a decent pitching option despite probably not being credited as a two-way player [thanks a bil, Manfred]. 

Pirates: Just Ke'Bryan Hayes, but that's still a pretty awesome second-generationer

Red Sox: I keep forgetting Adalberto Mondesi is with the Sox now. Like I saw some BP at Fenway South and was surprised that Mondi was there. That's how low-key that trade was.

Rockies: C.J. Cron's dad famously had a few cups of coffee in the 90s. 

Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., of course, and he's looking like he's here to stay. 

Twins: Similar to Thompson, does it count if Jose Miranda's related to Lin-Manuel Miranda? If not, you've got Nick Gordon, son of Tom.

So that is 15/30 with second-generationers in the bigs that I know about, though there are probably a bunch I'm not aware of. That is a great deal, though a lot less than I figured. With all the prospects waiting to jump in, that number's probably gonna grow in the next few years anyhow.

Late Suspense in the AL Central

 

With around 2 weeks left in the season, only two divisions have a deficit of three games or less separating them from a competitor, and you can honestly really guess three of the division leaders [Astros, Cardinals, Dodgers, put it in the bank]. But one of those relatively open divisions is the AL Central, the division that once again will be playing for a third seed and this year will be the only division leader without a first round bye. The division where there's a low amount of stakes, because it'll take a ton of momentum for the division winner to make it past the first round, and because only the division winner will be making the playoffs, as the nearest AL Central wild card competitor has a 7 game deficit and an Orioles team to get past.

So the three teams who are still technically in the AL Central division race are fighting for one playoff spot, even if it is a low one that will not hold the odds. As of now, the Cleveland Guardians have the division lead, the Chicago White Sox are 3 games behind, and the Minnesota Twins, who had the lead for most of the season, are 5 games behind. As much as I want to assume that the Guardians can tough it out for the rest of the season, I assumed this about the White Sox in April and the Twins in June. 

The Guardians right now are in a decent place. They've won their last 4, they have almost their entire Opening Day lineup still with the team, in addition to rookies like Oscar Gonzalez, Richie Palacios and Tyler Freeman helping out. They only have one real hole in the rotation next to Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill and Konnor Pilkington, and so far the best person to fill it has been Cody Morris, who's starting tonight against the Angels and will be trusted to not give up a home run to Mike Trout. The people who have powered this team to this point, like Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Triston McKenzie and Emmanuel Clase, are still in great condition and are dealing great stats even late. Gimenez might even get more MVP votes than Jose Ramirez in a season which started with a lot of MVP buzz for the third baseman. Still, Ramirez is sitting on his third 100+ RBI year and his fourth 25+ home run year, so he's got plenty to be happy about.

At the same time, the White Sox have gained a ton of momentum recently. In Tim Anderson's absence, Elvis Andrus has been turning in career work that might be his most relevant season in years. The homegrown guys that could never sync up, like Robert, Jimenez and Moncada, are syncing up finally, Dylan Cease is making a run at the Cy Young, and their wins in the past week have been huge. The White Sox also have an easier schedule this week, and while they do have a Guardians matchup as a makeup in a few days, the odds are they're gonna try and capitalize on this week and try to take the division back.

Now...I am all for comeback stories, but at the same time, to me, the White Sox taking the division back after it'd been the Guardians' year to win it is kind of anticlimactic. The White Sox failed in April, the Twins and Guardians conquered the division all year...from a storytelling perspective, that's the arc right there. It's less satisfying that the thing that was gonna happen all along just happens right at the end. 

I think the Guardians do have the better team right now, but the White Sox are using the momentum to make up for a ton of lost time, and they could lap the Guardians at the last second. I hope it doesn't happen for the sake of a ton of the Guardians who worked hard to make them into a postseason team, but this division isn't theirs yet. We've still got a lot of games to play.

Coming Tomorrow- Yet another homegrown Cardinals rookie who figures out how to kick ass in the majors.

Parental Guardian

 

Kinda funny that the two members of the Indians' rotation to stay healthy most of the year were the two 2nd-generation guys. Plesac and Quantrill. Nephews and sons of former MLB relievers. Residing over a Bieber-less Cleveland rotation. 

Honestly, Cal Quantrill's transition from swing/5th-starter type to one of the most integral parts of this team has been refreshing. The Padres could never figured out what to do with Quantrill, even with his impressive nature in the latter half of the 2019 season. Once he was traded to Cleveland, he still had some learning curve to go, but once he got the starting job midway through this season he was golden. In 16 games as a starter, he has a 3.44 ERA, 4 wins and 67 strikeouts, numbers also boosted by his equally impressive relief numbers. Quantrill is dominant, he is reliable, and he's been very tricky in his last few starts. If he's this good next year when Bieber, McKenzie and Civale are back, the Guardians' inaugural rotation might be pretty spiffy.

But, really, the injuries to those pieces, including Triston McKenzie going down right when he figured out how to stop runs, have slowed down this team to a barely efficient 2nd place competitor to the towering White Sox. The lineup is a backbone of its former self, with only Jose Ramirez, Bradley Zimmer and Amed Rosario persisting throughout. The good news is that Myles Straw is continuing his versatile work from Houston, D.J. Johnson finally seems MLB ready, and Blake Parker has been a surprisingly steady bullpen presence. But, yeah, this team's a husk of its former self, is no longer at competitive capacity, and may be looking at some rebuilding years to rely on Mercado, Clement and Bradley as they develop.

It saddens me that the AL Central ended up being such a wash, but the Indians were competitors for about half a decade, which is pretty cool considering how bleak things were in the early 2010s. Maybe they'll run again soon.

Coming Tomorrow- Even with more earned runs, he still wound up a part of the deadliest rotation in baseball right now. 

2020 Topps Final Edition: Cards #316-324

 The penultimate week, the penultimate post, the penultimate grouping, the next-to-last time you're ever gonna hear anything about my 2020 Topps Final Edition set. This was fun, but man it was a monolith, and man it was an investment to keep posting selections from it every monday and friday. Phew. But we got through it, and today's is our last full page of cards from it. Some interesting stories in this one.

Card #316- Justin Topa, Milwaukee Brewers

Justin Topa was brought up to make up for A.) Devin Williams hitting the IL, and B.) David Phelps getting traded to Philly. The Brewers' bullpen needed to sustain its strength, and Topa was a low-key minor league threat that did the trick. In 6 appearances, Topa struck out 12 and had a 2.35 ERA, keeping middle relief a strength in Williams' absence, and throwing 2 scoreless innings of postseason ball against the eventual World Champions. Topa's been injured all season, so the Brewers have had to carry on without him [they've been doing pretty well], but he'll no doubt be an important piece once he returns.

Card #317- Mike Mayers, Los Angeles Angels

After four shaky seasons with the Cardinals, reliever Mike Mayers had the best season of his career last year with the Angels. In 29 games, Mayers fanned 43, won 2 games and had a 2.10 ERA. It gave him a 1.0 WAR, his first-ever positive WAR, and a statement in his favor. Mayers has been alright so far in 2021 for the Angels, but nowhere near as dominant as last year.

Card #318- Ryan Thompson, Tampa Bay Rays

Ryan Thompson was another one of the many homegrown pesky relief options the Rays employed on their way to a World Series appearance. Thompson had a 4.44 ERA in 25 games during the 2020 regular season, his rookie season, and had a 1.93 ERA in 9 postseason appearances, with 10 Ks, and only 2 runs coming at the expense of the Yankees offense.

Card #319- Jose Marmolejos, Seattle Mariners

Jose Marmolejos was one of two rookies who made the Opening Day lineup for the Mariners, the other being gold-glover Evan White. Marmolejos was similarly vacant at the plate as well, hitting .206 with 18 RBIs in 35 games. After 31 similar games this season, Marmolejos was sent back down to Tacoma, where he actually seems to be hitting for average.

Card #320- Brandon Workman, Philadelphia Phillies

I've talked about this story before, but Brandon Workman was netted by the Phillies in a trade that sent him and Heath Hembree to Philly and Nick Pivetta to Boston. Pivetta's been stellar since the trade, and Hembree and Workman suffered in the bottomless pit of the Phillies bullpen. Workman had a 6.92 ERA in 14 games with the Phils, blowing 3 of his 8 save opportunities. He seems to be doing a bit better since being returned to the Sox, but...not a great move for Klentak, which explains why he's out.

Card #321- Will Smith ASG, Los Angeles Dodgers

The last of the 2020 ASG cards in this set, Will Smith would have snatched the starting NL All Star catching gig out of the hands of J.T. Realmuto. It would have been a deserving choice though- Smith hit .289 last year with 25 RBIs, and gave the Dodgers backstop security during their Championship season. He's similarly doing well this year as well, proof that LA may have netted themselves a winner.

Card #322- Cal Quantrill, Cleveland Indians

Cal Quantrill had run out of uses in San Diego, and the son of a former Toronto reliever was promptly shipped to Cleveland for Mike Clevinger. The Indians similarly had barely any use for the decent-starting-but-better-relieving Quantrill, and used him out of the pen in 8 games. He did well for the Tribe though, with a 1.84 ERA and 13 Ks, and has been much better in a dual role this year, shifted into a starting position due to the injury issue.

Card #323- Thairo Estrada, New York Yankees

The last position player [I.E. non-pitcher] in this set, Estrada was one of the main bench pieces for the Yankees last year. After a decent call-up in 2019, Estrada struggled in a similar role last year, only hitting .167 in 26 games, with 3 RBIs. He was purchased by the Giants before the 2021 season, and hasn't seen much major league playing time, unlike one of his fellow 2020 Yankee benchmates.

Card #324- Joakim Soria, Oakland Athletics

Joakim Soria has been a dangerous relief option since I started collecting, and it's a joy to still see him hopping teams and putting in the work. Last year he was in Oakland, and continued his recent dominance, with a 2.82 ERA and 4 Ks in 22 games, though he did give up a few postseason runs. Given Soria's comeback in the last few years, it's kind of puzzling as to why Soria wouldn't get a card in flagship or Update, but that's what I'm here for. Hopefully they give him one from the D-Backs this year.

Monday will be the final post from this set, and the final six cards of it. I've saved one or two whoppers for the end. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2019: Padres

The Padres had a strong April, thanks to the material of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. However, after Tatis' injury in May, the team sort of reverted to its old self- sluggish, hapless, and unlucky. And therefore they ended the year in last. They've already done a lot of work to be ready in 2020, but will it be as effective as, say, signing Machado, bringing up Tatis and a bunch of pitchers?

Wil Myers, after being the centerpiece of the team since 2016, regressed further in 2019, hitting .239 and 18 home runs, a full-season low for Myers.
Why Him in 2019?: Held a full-season position despite being usurped by Machado and Hosmer
2020 Prediction: An improvement in numbers, but over less games.

In the absence of Myers' better numbers, Josh Naylor came in from Canada and captured an outfield spot after Franmil Reyes was traded. Naylor hit 32 RBIs in 94 games, and had a .403 SLG.
Why Him in 2019?: Gave an outfield position back to the youth movement
2020 Prediction: A full season of starting, and a 75-RBI year.

 In the midst of the revolving door year in the rotation came a return from Dinelson Lamet, who started some games in 2017. He fared well here, with 105 strikeouts in 14 games, and a 4.07 ERA.
Why Him in 2019?: He counts as a veteran presence in the 2019 rotation, I think
2020 Prediction: Will be a sleeper favorite in the rotation, despite Paddack and Davies having flashier years.

 One of the bigger rotation rookies of the second was Cal Quantrill, who came into vogue after Logan Allen left. Of the big rookies of 2019 in San Diego (Avila, Margevicius, Paddack, Morejon), he was the most 'meh' of them all, with a 5.16 ERA and a 6-8 record.
Why Him in 2019?: Ate 103 innings for a team improving its pitching reputation
2020 Prediction: Will have a much better starting year, with 12 wins and 175 strikeouts.

 Once again, thanks to Machado and Tatis, the Padres had no room for Luis Urias, who did what he could as backup later in the year. Still, in 74 games, Urias hit .223 with 56 strikeouts, so he needs to figure out how to hit at MLB levels.
Why Him in 2019?: Covered for Tatis during his injury periods
2020 Prediction: Will be an upgrade from Arcia in Milwaukee, but won't hit his stride til late in the season.

Why the Padres still insist on starting Austin Hedges and his .176 average over Francisco Mejia I have no idea. Mejia had a strong year as backup, hitting .265 with 22 RBIs and 8 home runs over 79 games. I'd honestly give him the gig over Hedges in 2019 if I were managing there.
Why Him in 2019?: Proved that the Cleveland prospectors had a point
2020 Prediction: Will win the starting gig in April and be one of the more durable members of the team by September.

Coming Tomorrow- For the second year in a row, the Phillies let several teams pass them in the standings in their pursuit of first. Here are some players who at least tried to stop this.