Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Rays

 

In 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays finally saw consequences for being cheap sons-of-guns.

Not only did their latest cobbled-together budget team fail to make the playoffs, resulting in, for the first time since 2017, a non-competitive Rays team, but the top two teams in baseball were all teams that got to the end thanks to their payrolls. The Dodgers won by spending the most money this year, and thus the Rays lost because they refused to spend enough.

And then a month later a hurricane blew through Tampa and destroyed their stadium, a stadium so cheaply refined due to the reluctance of the team to build a new one until around now. So for 2025, the Rays will have to play home games in the Yankees' minor league park, meaning TWO MLB TEAMS will be playing their home games in minor league stadiums. And at least the A's can sign a high-profile free agent here and there. 

And so the Rays are here. Now without Isaac Paredes, and with the potential to try and flip Jeffrey Springs and Pete Fairbanks, with only the preexisting star power of Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz and Ryan Pepiot...and with virtually every other team in the division planning on upgrading. The Rays haven't finished in last place since 2016, which, fun fact, is the only time since 2007 that the Rays have even finished in last. They need to hope that small-ball works enough in 2025 to stay out of that 9 year recurrence. 

I think the most Rays event of the year was starting the season with literally no designated catcher, due to trading away Christian Bethancourt prior to the season, and going with Ben Rortvedt, who was only traded to Tampa midway through spring training...only for Rortvedt to miraculously develop into a winning starting catcher. Rortvedt never was healthy enough to make much time with either the Twins or Yankees, so getting a full season out of him was a real victory for the Rays. Rortvedt was an average catcher, but he was steady, and the defense was the draw, rather than the .228 average in 112 games.

2025 Prediction: I think Rortvedt is the answer for them going forward back there, though it won't shock me if they get a flashy name backup this year.

Last year, to distract from the fact that the only player in history to ever get an actual mega-contract from the Rays will never be playing another MLB game again, the Rays brought up the backup shortstop prospect, Junior Caminero. He was...fine. This year the Rays got Jose Caballero and Amed Rosario, then traded Rosario, and when there was room...brought Caminero up again. This time, in 43 games, Caminero hit .248 with 18 RBIs and 6 homers, a much more promising season that will hopefully lead to more starting time from the jump.

2025 Prediction: A really nice full season effort, with a 5ish WAR. 

At the deadline, despite trading some of their best pieces, the Rays managed some decent enough returns. In exchange for Isaac Paredes, the Rays received Christopher Morel from the Cubs, around the time he was beginning to lose playing time. Morel, a power-bat more than anything, hit .191 in 49 games with the team, with 3 homers and 9 RBIs. Clearly not what the Rays were hoping for.

2025 Prediction: An improvement, but I think Morel's better off as a DH going forward.

In a much better move, at least at the time, the Rays got Dylan Carlson from the Cardinals in exchange for Shawn Armstrong. The Cardinals would eventually cut Armstrong and allow for the Cubs to pick him up for the stretch. Carlson, meanwhile, hit .219 in 37 games, with 14 RBIs and 3 homers. I think he had a strong first week or so with the Rays then evened out. Ultimately, the Rays cut Carlson after the season, making the trade...entirely pointless.

2025 Prediction: Finds a 4th OF gig with somebody decent and has a good year doing that. 

Coming Tomorrow- The Red Sox, for a team that didn't make the playoffs, were very good this year, and there are a lot of really big pieces I didn't get to during the season.

The 2024 Trade Deadline Deals That I Didn't Get

 So every year, when I do these trade deadline posts, in addition to the ones where I can see what a GM was trying to do, and what strategy was in mine, there are some deals that I cannot fully support. Either they're trying to accomplish something that I cannot comprehend, or they're deals where one team thinks they're accomplishing something when in reality they're getting railed by a better GM without realizing it. Ultimately, if I can answer the question of 'did this trade really need to happen?' with 'no', it belongs on this list.

There were only a handful of these this year, ranging from puzzling to infuriating, but I think there's enough for a post. So let's start with pure confusion and work our way down.

-Danny Jansen to the Red Sox, prospects to the Blue Jays

Now, on paper, this is a decent enough depth move that serves a purpose. The Red Sox needed a defensive backup to cover for Connor Wong, their current backup was A.) better at a DH and B.) a genuinely horrific human being, and its karmic justice considering that this will be the second time that Danny Jansen has rendered Reece McGuire obsolete. But then you think about it, and...were the Red Sox really the best team to get Jansen? Could you make the argument that his services as a defensive backup would be better used somewhere like Milwaukee or Arizona? And then you think about the fact that the Sox already kinda have an heir apparent at catcher on the way, an extremely lethal double-A piece named Kyle Teel who's likely a year or so away. Jansen is a good rental piece I suppose, but I think they could have gone on at the same pace without much difference. I'd love to be proven wrong, and if Jansen goes on a tear this fall then I'll take it back.

-Trevor Rogers to the Orioles, Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to the Marlins

So. You couldn't get Tarik Skubal. 

That's the root of it for me. The Orioles already went and got Zach Eflin, which was an excellent move for them, and could have very easily kept going with Albert Suarez in that 5 spot. But they wanted a full upgrade, so they went with Trevor Rogers, who...while hot recently, has struggled mightily since his breakout rookie year in 2021. 2022 was a palpable step down, and last year was injury plagued. It took a bit more failure for Rogers to start figuring it out, and he ultimately leveled himself to a 4.53 ERA in 21 games. That, to me, is not worth Norby and Stowers, two guys who, while they don't have room in Baltimore at the moment, are still very crucial pieces. I'd even say that Stowers is more valuable to the Orioles than Jimenez, but...they went with this move because they needed a solid fifth starter. I do not think Rogers is as good as they're letting on, and I do not think he was worth two really good prospects, who will no doubt help repopulate Miami now. But yes, it did pave the way for Jackson Holliday, which...at the moment seems like a good move.

-Ty France to the Reds, prospect to the Mariners

Now this only works if you absolutely belief the central theory that the Mariners this year are better off without Ty France. Which I absolutely disagree with. Yes, he's not as good as his peak years, but he still had 8 homers and 31 RBIs, and was at least something of an offensive boost, even in the weak periods. The Mariners really think they are better off with some combination of Justin Turner, who was DHing in Toronto for a reason, and Tyler Locklear, who has not proved himself to be MLB ready yet. France was at least a solid, somewhat trustworthy everyday option, and the Mariners thought they were better off with a more flexible arrangement. Which is definitely a gamble, considering that the Mariners are still trying to compete, and for a division as well. Giving France to the Reds, who could still feasibly make a run this year, is also a perplexing move. I just really hope for the M's sake that this was 3D chess kind of thing, or else they just vacated 1st base for no reason.

-Isaac Paredes to the Cubs, Christopher Morel and 2 prospects to the Rays.

The Chicago Cubs are currently in last place, careening quicker everyday despite a very nice performance last night against the Reds, and came extremely close to losing Jameson Taillon the other day. They are still dead set on competing, despite being very behind in the wild card race and still making very easy mistakes. And so the Cubs decided they were the team that needed to get Isaac Paredes, one of the best hitting infield pieces of the bunch. So...even if Isaac Paredes does help the Cubs this fall, I don't think it's enough to make them a playoff winning team. And meanwhile, you're not only giving more prospects to the Rays, which is literally exactly what they want, but now there's a nonzero chance they turn Christopher Morel into a star by releasing his full potential amidst a lower-stakes lineup. I know the Cubs wanted to level up with this but I don't see them winning this trade in the long run because this is exactly what the Rays wanted. You played into their hand. 

Similarly,

-Dylan Carlson to the Rays, Shawn Armstrong to the Cardinals

This is like an arms deal between Skeletor and Darth Vader, it's really not gonna go well for anybody. It was clear that Dylan Carlson wanted out of St. Louis because A.) like many Cardinals from the Shildt era he didn't get along with Oli Marmol, and B.) he had no room to play amid the new regime. The Rays were selling but laterally. So with this deal, the Cardinals get bullpen help with Armstrong, and the Rays get a proven OF bat with Carlson. It's a decent enough move, but I don't like that its genesis is 'hey, this good outfielder doesn't wanna play here anymore'. If you're another team and you're hearing from a trade partner, 'will you take our players, they don't wanna play for us', then you have to think about the people you are sending...to the place where people want to be traded from. It's a little different for Armstrong, as given he's a reliever there's no doubt he'll get playing time. But it is kind of a worrying detail. 

And let's end on the one that I literally begged teams not to do:

-Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros, Joey Loperfido, Jake Bloss and 1 other prospect to the Blue Jays.

So...the Astros didn't need pitching help. They just don't. There's enough people that will come off the IL anyway, and plus in scratching Bloss they learned that Tayler Scott can not only start games, but start them really well. They have enough starting innings. So why do they trade for Yusei Kikuchi, who's been terrible in the last couple months? Because they want to be the best. They trade for someone having a really weak year who plays for a team that's created a lovely little home environment for him...because they want to be the best. And in exchange, they give up not only one of their top outfield prospects, who did some decent work in the majors this year, but their top pitching prospect, who was JUUUUST getting the hang of major league hitting. How pissed d'you think Jake Bloss feels? He flies through the minors in a year, gets four starts with the team that drafted them and is immediately passed off for Yusei Kikuchi, who's gonna get lit up and be a relief piece in the playoffs while he suffers in Toronto. That is humiliating. Bloss will no doubt become a great pitcher, probably for the Jays, but he could have been given the opportunity to do so for a surging Astros team. And they got cocky and wanted Yusei Kikuchi.

If the Astros fall apart in the next couple years, it'll be because of deals like this. Because they valued one-upmanship over development. I hope they lose to the White Sox this month.

Everything Must Chicago

 

The Cubs-White Sox series often times itself oddly. This year, it happened as the league ramped up to the trade deadline. Also I think there was a sports memorabilia show in town.

At the time of this series, both the White Sox and the Cubs had been thought of as sellers. The White Sox were already in the process of dealing Lucas Giolito, and by the end of the series, which was a Cubs sweep, they'd have let go of Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Kendall Graveman as well. Meanwhile, the Cubs are now a game over .500, coming off a 7 game winning streak [as I write this], and looking a lot more like a competitor than they previously were. The Cubs are only 3.5 games out of a wild card spot, and with this streak they've separated themselves from the pack. Even though I hear they're still listening to offers on Stroman and Bellinger, I don't think the Cubs are as sure of a bet to sell as they were.

It's also evident right now because even the little pieces that were supposed to be replacement level are working for the Cubs. Mike Tauchman has been an awesome leadoff hitter, batting .261 with 33 RBIs in 54 games. Yan Gomes, at 35, has been a surprisingly spry starting catcher, hitting .274 with 62 hits in 69 games. Adbert Alzolay has become an excellent closer, with 12 saves already. And the guys who've joined the cause late, especially Christopher Morel, have been worth it; Morel has 16 homers and 48 RBIs in 60 games. 

This is a Cubs team that can and will teeter on the brink of legitimacy, and maybe needs one more year to be an actual contender, but they have enough to be considered a team that doesn't need to sell, at least in my opinion. You never know what they'll end up doing, but I think they're gonna stand relatively pat.

As for the White Sox...the question for them is who they're gonna end up holding onto. Because even after Lynn, Giolito and Graveman have left, I'm still hearing question marks over several members of this team, will they or won't they go. Mike Clevinger just got activated, and will start in time for people to take a last look at him. Tim Anderson, Yasmani Grandal and Andrew Vaughn have been mentioned in trade talks, especially Anderson, who I think just needs a change of scenery at this point. I'm even hearing they might want to deal Robert or Jimenez for some reason, who are both still young enough to be pieces of this team for a bit longer. I don't entirely get that approach. Yes, repopulate the youth movement, but maybe give them a few more years?

It is very much down to how pessimistic Kenny Williams is about this team, and considering how far they've fallen I bet he's not thinking anything's gonna happen with this group. And with the team they had in 2019, 2020 and 2021, that's a really depressing thought. They hired the wrong managers, squandered development, got really unlucky with injuries, and can't even rise above a genuinely appalling division. And I hate that they're probably gonna just start trading big pieces and start over, because there's already 3 or 4 teams in this division that are doing that.

It's odd that the Cubs have been luckier than the White Sox, even just 2 years after splitting up their own dynasty. It may also be organizational. It definitely is organizational, a lot of this is the White Sox's organizational struggles. And while both teams could still deal, it's sad that the Cubs feel like the comparative victor here.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the two big rookie call-ups for a team desperate for anything to talk about.

Morel of the Story

 

The good news is the Cubs managed to keep Willson Contreras for the rest of the season. The bad news is that regardless of that, they are still in last place.

And it's not without a lack of trying. The Cubs still have the better team of the three low-level NL Central teams, and got rid of the least of them all, but even with Contreras, Ian Happ, Yan Gomes, Marcus Stroman and Drew Smyly still on this team, they've had a terrible second half of July and are still trying to inch back above the Reds. Plus, a lot of the pieces who thought they'd have room to play this half, like P.J. Higgins, Nelson Velasquez and even poor David Bote, are stuck grasping for playing time. 

Still, even with that, a lot of new players have emerged from under the preexisting rubble of these Cubs teams that were. For instance, Christopher Morel is having a very fun rookie season, hitting .260 with 9 homers and 29 RBIs in 65 games. Somehow he's had a more consistent and promising season for the Cubs than Seiya Suzuki, who looked to be the real deal at least in April. At the same time, the rotation is being run by people like Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson, two relievers turned starters who seem to be gaining a lot of trust as people like Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman begin to show their age. And now that the bullpen is pretty vacated, newcomers like Brandon Hughes and Anderson Espinoza are getting the chance to show their stuff for a chance to potentially be the next lone Cubs reliever to stick around after a firesale.

The main problem with the Cubs is that at the end of the day, this is a very old team trying to stay younger by putting in players who may be fresh but are still old themselves. Patrick Wisdom, Frank Schwindel, Rafael Ortega, P.J. Higgins and Adrian Sampson may be young in Cubs roster years, but they're all in and around their 30s and trying to desperately hold onto their peak years. Even Seiya Suzuki's 27. Morel is thankfully a rookie that's the age a rookie should be, and is probably a more promising young player because of this, but the team needs more guys like that and less guys like Ortega. 

I don't know if the Cubs are capable of substantial changes without getting rid of a lot of people. I can't see a new regime peeking out from under a lot of the mess of this team. I wanna say Nico Hoerner leads the next generation of Cubs, but I don't even know which Cubs are gonna be around him when that happens. Or if David Ross will still be around to lead them. I guess it'll be a surprise for all of us.

Coming Tonight: A youngster who pitched a no-hitter earlier this year before his team completely fell apart.