Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Royals

 

On the surface, there's not a ton fundamentally different between the Royals team that went deep last year and the Royals team that missed the playoffs this year. Both AL Central teams that made it this year rode huge waves of hot streaks, and the Royals couldn't really do that in the second half. The Royals were also without Cole Ragans for a lot of the season, and had a limited version of Seth Lugo. Plus, the Brady Singer for Jonathan India trade, which I could have told you was short-sighted to begin with, robbed them of a crucial workhorse. With the pitching depleted, not even the best closer in the AL could keep them in the divisional race. With no fault of Witt, Garcia or Bubic, the Royals stayed home this October. That doesn't mean the Quantaro era is through, and considering the young talent taking over it may just be taking off.

On the plus side, the Royals got another great season of offensive production from their captain, Salvador Perez. From the looks of things his ability to play great defense behind the plate is pretty much gone, and all that remains is an above average power bat to play DH everyday, which isn't a bad thing. This year marked Salvy's third 100+ RBI year [100 exactly], and his second year of 30 or more homers [30 exactly]. This season put him over not only the 300 homer mark but the 1000 RBI mark, both very good things, even if Perez isn't exactly a lock for the Hall of Fame.

2026 Prediction: So his contract is up, but I don't think Salvy has any desire to play somewhere other than KC, so I think they're gonna give him the Kershaw/Cutch track. Just keep re-upping, as long as you wanna play for. Next year won't exactly be a 100+ RBI year but he'll be relied upon as a power bat for sure.

Cole Ragan has been so good since coming over from Arlington that a mediocre season felt like a huge blow to the Royals' plans. And it's weird to say that about a year where Ragans still had 98 strikeouts in 13 games. He obviously can still outsmart batters, and he's still very dominant, but he had a 4.67 ERA this year, and whatever went wrong was clearly enough to sideline him for the rest of the season almost. The good news is that he was strong for his first few starts, and his September starts were a big part of why his ERA went below 5. But man that April-May stretch where he was clearly hurt wasn't fun.

2026 Prediction: As I write this, the Royals have been rumored to be shopping Ragans, potentially gauging Boston's interest considering that Jarren Duran might still need to be moved as well. I don't think Ragans will end up being moved though, and he'll have a stronger, fuller year for the Royals.

Kyle Isbel has been a steady, reliable outfield choice for the Royals for the last several years. In 135 games this year, Isbel hit .255 with 33 RBIs, but the offensive angle is not the takeaway, as he's such a great option in center field that it makes the team more well-rounded. Witt, Garcia, Isbel, Michael Massey to a degree- they're all excellent defenders that are helping the Royals stay in it and stay formidable. Yes, the power hitting helps too, but you can't outscore opponents if you don't have a Kyle Isbel.

2026 Prediction: The hope is that eventually they get someone who'll relegate Isbel to a Myles Straw-esque substitution, but I don't think that happens next year. Does more of the same.

Ever since coming back from his injuries in Cincinnati, Michael Lorenzen has made a name for himself as an underrated, durable starting option. In Anaheim, Detroit, Philadelphia, Texas and now Kansas City, Lorenzen has eaten innings, had nice starts and done exactly what's been asked of him. 2025 was something of a setback for Lorenzen, as he went 7-11 with a 4.64 ERA in 26 starts, but he still made 140 innings, and, miraculously, he led the team in strikeouts with 127, beating his nearest competition [Lugo and Wacha] by only one or two Ks. 

2026 Prediction: Why stop now? There's tons of teams that could use Lorenzen. Arizona maybe? Milwaukee? Baltimore? St. Louis? I think he'll have a better year for any of 'em. 

For the second year in a row, one of the most effective relief specialists for the Royals was Lucas Erceg. In a full year with this team, he doubled his output and wired in, with an 8-4 record, a 2.64 ERA and a 1.174 WHIP. He did miss a smidge of time midyear but still made 61 appearances. 

2026 Prediction: I think with Erceg the magic is more likely to keep going than fade off now. The Royals will be better next year, and Erceg will continue his strong work, complete with an averted close call in October.

It is the year 2025, the game is ruled by a guy who was at LSU like two years ago, the Royals called up Jac Caglianone, and Rich Hill, who is 45, still pitched in MLB games. The Royals had him on for two starts this year in between some roster moves, and Hill...well, Hill pitched like a 45-year-old man. Not everyone can be Philip Rivers. He had a 5 ERA over 9 innings, gave up 5 earned runs and lost both games. Yet he still struck out 4. 

2026 Prediction: I know logically he's probably done, but this man still probably thinks himself indestructible. He is, after all, a New England Patriots fan. Look, if the Pats miss the AFC Championship, he might decide there's still more to do. If Drake Maye isn't there yet, he can just keep holding out til he is. So uh...screw it, Sox invite him to camp, makes 4 starts, has one insane scoreless outing. Why not, man? 

Adam Frazier, who was a good depth infield piece for the Royals last year, made a return before the deadline after spending a bit more time in Pittsburgh and remembering why he was grateful that he left. In 56 games in KC, he made up for a slow spring and hit .283 with 4 homers and 23 RBIs. Frazier, despite his best efforts, has become one of the more in demand utility infield helpers in the game, and the Royals clearly know that.

2026 Prediction: Why do I feel like the Royals already re-upped him? If they haven't already, they really should, it's nice to have security for Michael Massey.

In a move that shocked a lot of people, especially me, the Giants traded Mike Yastrzemski to the Royals. All that goodwill, all he'd done for the team, gone. Yaz only did so much to help the Royals' similarly doomed stretch run, but in 50 games he hit .237 with 9 homers and 18 RBIs, amounting to an .839 OPS. Clearly this one panned out for them, in addition to boosting Yaz's free agency case.

2026 Prediction: It's not gonna initially feel like it, but the Braves made the absolute correct choice nabbing him. It'll kick in very late.

In exchange for catcher Freddy Fermin, who, as I'll explain, they may not have needed anyway, the Royals got two more depth starting options to plug in for injured aces. Stephen Kolek had a 4.18 ERA in San Diego this year, and while he only got 5 starts in Kansas City, they were very sharp starts. Kolek had a 1.91 ERA, a 0.758 WHIP, 21 Ks and a 1.1 WAR after that month of work.

2026 Prediction: I think of the two guys they got, Kolek has more of a chance of getting flexed to a long relief position, but he'll have some nice starts when needed.

Ryan Bergert, at 25, has the higher ceiling of the two, and looked like the better choice in San Diego, with a 2.78 ERA in 11 appearances, 7 being starts. His KC work was less sharp, with a 4.43 ERA and 39 Ks in 8 starts. Cumulatively it's a 3.66 ERA, 1.4 WAR, 73 K season, which isn't awful to be fair.

2026 Prediction: Big year. Makes all his starts, becomes a really strong third man in this rotation.

After a certain point this year, there was really no avoiding it. Jac Caglianone, one of the top prospects in baseball, needed to come up. Unfortunately, as ready as he was in triple-A, his perks weren't all immediately evident in the majors in 2025. In 62 games, Caglianone hit .157, with 7 homers and 18 RBIs. He is 22 years old, just getting the hang of things, and will be fine. Not everyone can be Bobby Witt and have a rookie year that still looks better than 98% of rookie years even if, for Witt, it's mediocre. 

2026 Prediction: It won't be a full smash, but I think for three months we're gonna see some high quality offensive performance from this guy. I just don't know if it'll be right out of camp.

Dealing Freddy Fermin away lampshaded the fact that the Royals had another option at catcher in the wings, and eventually Carter Jensen was deployed. In 20 games he bat exactly .300 with 3 homers and 13 RBIs, already showing promise as a contact bat in addition to fine catching skills. 

2026 Prediction: The Royals are going to sign a career backup, somebody like Elias Diaz or James McCann, as a security measure, but Jansen will be the starter and he'll be ASG-quality.

Coming Tomorrow- A lot of auxiliary members of a Tigers team that couldn't quite follow up on the promises of their 2024 run.

Wild Card Week Day 1: The Shifting of Tides

 

One of the few games I had any time to watch today was Tigers-Astros. And it's a funny happenstance, because it was one of the few I had any vested interest in, due to an unflinching desire to see Houston suffer, and it happened to be on ABC, the channel my TV is automatically on anyway due to how often I watch Jeopardy during weeknights. And so I watched a bit of it. Watched Skubal work, watched the small ball chip away at Valdez. And I started looking around, going '...this is really happening, right?'

It is...incredible, unlikely, and hysterical, all at the same time, that after essentially skipping to first with no competition yet again, the Astros are being matched by the freaking Detroit Tigers. A team that, by July, was dead enough to deal away two of their best players, and everyone assumed that was that. Today, people like Wenceel Perez, Trey Sweeney, Parker Meadows, Matt Vierling and Jake Rogers were getting stuff done against these guys. And all the big stars on the Astros couldn't get anything done against Tarik Skubal. Is it a Skubal-centric thing...or is this team just matching well against the Astros?

I mean, you saw in the ninth, Jason Foley and Beau Brieske got lucky, they nearly ruined the whole thing but Brieske managed to shut it down. This was so close to being a ninth inning Astros victory. But it wasn't. And so the Tigers go into Game 2, with a band of relievers rather than a still-on-rest starter, hoping that Hunter Brown befalls a similar fate and they don't have to risk a Game 3 in Houston. I'd love for the Tigers to pull this off, just cause it'd be an amazing story.

The Royals-O's series, so far, is going how I thought it would. These Orioles are just tired. They haven't figured out how to leg out a full regular season regime yet. And Cole Ragans, who's coming off another great season, shut 'em down entirely, making it a sole run by Bobby Witt Jr. as the deciding factor. What makes me think the O's could leg it out is that it was just that run, thanks to an equally impressive start from Corbin Burnes. Tomorrow will be Eflin v. Lugo, and that could be pretty cool too. I still think the Royals ultimately have this one, but you never know when the Orioles could suddenly spring to life.

I think we were all expecting the 'lolmets' moment to happen by now, and it's honestly just refreshing that it hasn't. This Mets-Brewers match was tense for a while, lots of back-and-forth nibbling away. Then the Mets broke it open in the fifth and never looked back. The key to this team is that everyone can pitch in- Jesse Winker and Starling Marte got things rolling, and then Vientos, Iglesias and Martinez finished the job. I do worry about the Mets' relatively thin pitching ceiling, Sevvy got the job done today but I'm not sure if Peterson, Manaea and Quintana are gonna be the best postseason options, especially given the strength of the field. Still, happy for the Mets, it'd be cool if they kept it going.

Padres-Braves is also going exactly how I thought. The Braves, like the O's, don't have much left. Without Marcell Ozuna they'd be cooked. They didn't have Sale tonight, so they had to start AJ Smith-Shawver, and...that went how I expected it to. It's very funny that what led them past the Braves tonight were two of the pieces they got for Juan Soto. Kyle Higashioka had a very helpful RBI after the Tatis homer, and Michael King had a BEAUTIFUL start, with 12 Ks, no runs and no walks. It makes me sad that he never got to be a postseason hurler for us, even though, yes Clarke Schmidt might still be great in October. But I'm still happy he got to be a trusted postseason starter, and I hope the Padres can clear this hurdle tomorrow.

I think 2 of these are gonna get settled tomorrow [ideally 3 but, y'know, the Astros], and at least 1 will need to go to 3 games. We'll see how right I am tomorrow.

One Missed Cole

 

I don't think enough people will admit this, but the Royals have figured out how properly to combine a homegrown farm rollout and supplemental additions. The development division has given this team Bobby Witt Jr., Kyle Isbel, Maikel Garcia, M.J. Melendez, Brady Singer, Freddy Fermin and Angel Zerpa, and they're making up the majority of the team's best performers right now. This team knew Witt was gonna become a mainstay, but seeing Garcia and Fermin go from backups to perennial standouts had to have been reassuring. 

But what they're getting good at, the Royals, is the art of finding players that other teams may be giving up on that can help them both in short term and long term ways. There's a few other teams that do this, the Rays famously can snag somebody from anywhere and make them a star, the Dodgers' pitching coaches can straighten out careers once thought dead, and the Reds seem to be the go-to place for pitchers that destroy their free agency perks after tenure in the Bronx. But the Royals seem to be picking it up, and this year, so far, they've taken some chances on people that have been immediately helping out.

Cole Ragans is probably the poster child for this mentality, because the Rangers traded him to KC in exchange for a postseason closer that is now pitching for Pittsburgh, and that's looking like a deal the Royals have won. Ragans has been stellar since coming over here, with a combined 2.46 ERA through 14 starts for the Royals. So far this season he's continued his hot streak, and is being relied upon as a staff ace [which Brady Singer seems to be alright with]. Ragans can strike people out and eat innings, and he's very quickly become one of the most reliable Royals aside from Witt. It's very much a case of 'it'd be nice if this held up', but Ragans seems to be a great pitcher who just needed a place with opportunity, and it's doubtful he would have found that in Arlington.

The bullpen is also a case of a lot of guys who got yanked over to KC when no one expected them. Chris Stratton, James McArthur, Matt Sauer: all guys who did not originate in this organization that came over either as a prospect in a deal, a sneaky free agency grab or a low-key trade in the night. All three of them are being used in major roles in the bullpen, and all three have been reliable so far. Add John Schreiber to that; Schreiber was a favorite bullpen piece in Boston, then right as Spring Training was getting underway the Royals dealt for him, in exchange for a prospect. You should have heard the outcry from Sox fans. They did NOT like that, because they knew that the Sox were trying to save space and didn't care whether or not the fans liked him. Schreiber's been excellent so far in Kansas City, scoreless in five appearances.

This new tactic is already paying dividends, as the Royals are currently in second place, knotted up with Detroit, another team who's experienced some nice organizational growth. It remains to be seen whether the Royals will stay afloat this year, especially considering that the Twins are expected to rebound from their slow start, but this new method of building the team up and intermixing homegrown prospects with sneaky dealt guys seems to be working, and I hope it continues to.

Coming Tonight: There's a handful of players who define 'must-see TV' just by stepping onto the field, and this is the latest and greatest.

A Different Kind of Cole

 

The Royals have had only one 'sure thing' this year, and that is Bobby Witt Jr. Everyone else has had moments in the sun, like Freddy Fermin and Maikel Garcia, or have been quiet for most of the year and chosen now to get hot, like Dairon Blanco and Brady Singer, or even started strong and flamed out, like Vinnie Pasquantino, Daniel Lynch and Brad Keller. But Witt has really been the one locked-in piece the Royals have had all year, which is depressing when you consider that Salvador Perez, Zack Greinke and Brady Singer are on this team.

Although...what it's looking like at the moment is that, after 4 months, the Royals have gained a second confirmed, locked-in piece. Because how else can you explain how good Cole Ragans has looked?

Ragans was a decent starting option for the Rangers last year, and though he went 0-3 in 9 starts, he showed promise as a steady and sturdy innings-eater. Only issue is Ragans was the type of starter the Rangers could only use when they were running thin on proven options. For 2023, they were overstocked with starters, so Ragans was mostly a bullpen long man, and not a particularly effective one at that. So when the Rangers needed arms to give up in exchange for Aroldis Chapman, Ragans was relatively high on the list.

Since landing in Kansas City however, Cole Ragans has been given the stability, opportunity and healthy environment that the Rangers didn't have the space to provide him with before. And that's why his first 5 starts for the Royals have been excellent, with a 2.51 ERA, 36 strikeouts and a 2-1 record. It's the kind of strong, dominant material that's rocketed him to the top of the WAR leaderboards after barely even a month. And even if the Royals have built people like Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic and Brad Keller to be their rotation, a lot of them are injured or unreliable, and if the plan's not gonna succeed, this team needs people who will. 

Even if the Royals still suck next year, which is a likely option, having both Brady Singer and Cole Ragans pitching consistently well, and on par with how they are now, will ensure that that team will be a step up from this one. It felt like with all the potential pieces the Royals set up last year, nothing really came to fruition and they took steps back. If Witt, Singer and Ragans all deliver seasons similar to their peak years, the Royals could begin to build something to separate themselves from the pack and potentially raise the quality of the AL Central. However...this could be a mirage, and Ragans could struggle next year just like Michael Massey, Nate Eaton and Scott Barlow did this year.

It'd be nice, though. What if Ragans gets good and makes the Rangers regret ever trading him? How awesome would that be?

Coming Tonight: Of the remaining members of the 2015 Mets rotation, the biggest active long-term success has been Noah Syndergaard. The second biggest somehow might be this guy.