Blink And You'll Miss It

 

Maybe it's me but the rebuilds are lasting so much less time before being dismantled these days. The Reds started bringing up their core around 2023 and are now shopping Hunter Greene and Tyler Stephenson. The Tigers prepped for an onslaught around 2023/2024, and now are dealing Skubal most likely. The Jays are looking to deal many people associated with the mid-decade run. And the Royals...after the callups of Witt, Pasquantino, Garcia, Massey and Caglianone inferred that something big was on the horizon...are in last, and without a real shot. Not that the dream is fully over, but...Witt may not be a perennial playoff hero for a bit.

The current status of this Royals team is....dire. Bobby Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, Kyle Isbel, Kris Bubic, Cole Ragans and Carlos Estevez are all hurt. So...what is the point, really? Knowing that Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha will likely be dealt, Jac Caglianone is one of the few reasons to go to games right now, and he's only hitting .254 with 40 RBIs and a team-leading 17 homers. Beyond him...eesh. Carter Jensen's doing pretty well but only hitting .235. Salvador Perez is now good for homers and nothing else. Isaac Collins is *fine*. Michael Massey's having an improved, healthy year, hitting .266 with 36 RBIs, but it's not enough to rest the team on. Nick Loftin and Tyler Tolbert are playing amusing fill-in roles but aren't much more, despite Tolbert's .866 OPS as a bench piece. Caglianone, Jensen and Luinder Avila are the only people here under 25, and the reinforcements that have come in are all like 28 or so. Which doesn't bode well for next year.

We're really at the point where the bizarre stuff can wander out and onto the big league club. Randy Dobnak, former Twins hero and rideshare driver, is back in the bigs after years of minor league work, and his last start was a 7-inning scoreless 4-hit affair against his old team. I have no idea how Dobnak's gotten his stuff together, but I'm honestly thrilled for him. If Topps had any justice he'd be an Update Series inclusion, but you have to make your mark around May for that apparently. We're probably gonna get Ryan Bergert back up if starters get traded, that'll at least be interesting. Career Royals minor leaguer John Rave is also getting starting opportunities, in the Kyle Isbel role which is very fitting. And Starling Marte is still employed by an MLB team, despite his power numbers having completely dissipated. 

People will be dealt, even though it won't be anything huge [cause they're all hurt]. And it's gonna lead this team to a really odd place. They could still go for it next year, they still have Witt and Garcia...but they don't have enough built around them to really warrant it. They could sign free agents...I guess? If they really wanted to. I'd hate to waste a sure thing like Bobby Witt. But...will it be worth it if the infrastructure just wasn't worth it?

Coming Tonight: Alright, Jeffers might be staying where he is so...ANOTHER catcher who's being linked to the Yankees. 

Can't Get There From Here

 

The Royals and the Reds are two teams that people thought would be doing a lot better by now than they actually are. They're in danger of selling. It is possible they can still deliver...but how?

The Reds made the playoffs last year, and got to play the Dodgers. That was their first problem. Their second was the continued revolving door of young, hard-throwing pitchers, which is once again causing them trouble this season. They just got Hunter Greene back, and he's slowly getting back to his old self, but they just lost Nick Lodolo, they're without Brandon Williamson again, and Rhett Lowder, while healthy, just doesn't have it right now. They have Andrew Abbott, Chase Burns and Greene all working...but the way this team works, the second something starts working or an element is added, something else will fall off. Eventually Lodolo will come back, it's a blister issue, but can they hold onto that before something else goes wrong?

The lineup is a different issue entirely. They have everybody in one place but most of them aren't doing anything. Eugenio Suarez was brought here to hit homers like he did last year, and he's hit only 11 thanks to injuries and general inefficiency. Stephenson, McLain, Friedl and Marte are all bowling gutter balls. McLain still struggling to meet .200 after everything he was supposed to do feels insulting. It's really down to Sal Stewart, Elly de la Cruz and J.J. Bleday to do all the work, with occasional assistance by Spencer Steer, who at least has 14 homers and 35 RBIs, and Nathaniel Lowe, who's also still an RBI machine. But it's a limp lineup with next to nothing to say, and when even the Pirates and Cardinals have more to offer, you're sort of stuck.

The thing about the Reds is I don't think they can sell too much because they're still in the rebuilding phase, but who knows if someone who's been there all decade, like Stephenson or Antone, will get dealt.

The Royals are a bit more open about what they're gonna be doing. The contracts are gonna go. Wacha's probably leaving, Lugo's probably leaving, maybe a few others. It's not the kind of thing where the big stars like Witt, Caglianone or Garcia are in danger, but there's a way for this team to still compete in the future without sinking under their own ambition.

And you can still see the Royals clinging to 2024 with this roster. Michael Massey's still out there trying to play everyday, and while he's better at it than he was he hasn't really gotten anywhere. Vinnie Pasquantino still isn't the guy he was supposed to be, and this year he's been very quiet, with 6 homers and 32 RBIs. Bubic and Ragans are working solutions but they haven't been sustainable this year, much like Carlos Estevez, Kyle Isbel and Jonathan India. You're seeing things evolve slightly, like Isaac Collins's decent work as an OF bat, Tyler Tolbert and his consecutive hits, and especially Carter Jensen getting reps behind the plate. Right now he's got 13 homers and 49 RBIs, which is a bit more on-target than the other Royals catcher at the moment, sad to say. Jensen's 22, he's a great hitting catcher, and he's got a future there. That's a start. Same with Caglianone and Witt, it's good that they're succeeding here. But there's just so much that hasn't held up, and the team can't really compete.

Even in a division where most teams are under .500, and a lot of the pack is just as disappointing, the Royals can't match up. They don't really have that x-factor right now, even WITH Caglianone and Witt. Even if they probably have more going for them than the Reds, they're further from competing at the moment. Hopefully both teams get to where they were supposed to eventually, but as it stands now...already looking like a long second half.

Coming Tonight: A rookie pitcher for the Angels who's taken advantage of the ample playing time. 

A 2nd, a 6th and a Last

 

I was on a call with someone yesterday. Oh yeah, two brief life updates- 1, I'm on the precipice of a new job, that'll likely pan out and I'll be able to regularly buy cards again other than TCDB stuff. 2, I'm on the precipice of a new laptop, cause the new job requires a software my current laptop's physically unable to take on, so this is the last post being written by ol' faithful, which I got in July 2017, also on the precipice of a new job actually. This laptop has served me very well, and owes me nothing, other than like...the ability to take on iOS 15.6. So hopefully today I'll be moving onto laptop #3, probably a similar make and model to laptops 1 and 2. I look forward to writing posts and making customs on it.

But to backtrack, I was on a call with the guy who's giving me this job potentially [it's looking very good and if I do this project as well as I think I will, it's mine], and I emphasized that I use social media mainly to talk about my own idiosyncrasies, as well as baseball. And we talked baseball for a little bit. His team is the Royals. And he's at a point where they could be selling or could be on the way back up. So it's a moment of indistinct haze. 

And I just said 'well how about this Caglianone kid, right?'. And that made him a little more hopeful.

It's weird that a team that already had Bobby Witt Jr., and Salvy Perez in that matter, needed a Jac Caglianone, but here he is, saving the team once again. Cags is 23, and has the confidence and full MLB attitude that he lacked in a call-up last year. And right now he and Witt sit at the top of the team leaderboard together, as intended. Caglianone is hitting .268 with an .822 OPS, 30 RBIs and 14 homers, which is the most on the team. Kinda wild that a team with Bobby Witt Jr. and two power-hitting catchers has someone else leading in homers, but it SHOULD be Caglianone. He's just a really reliable all-around hitter, and him coming to prominence is a very good thing for this Royals team.

Especially considering all those huge injuries that have hit, essentially all at once. Maikel Garcia, Cole Ragans, Kyle Isbel, Vinnie Pasquantino, Kris Bubic, Carlos Estevez, Jonathan India and Alec Marsh are all hurt. That is a huge chunk of the 2024 playoff team, and a huge chunk of the team's WAR total since Quatraro took over. So it's really no wonder they're in last, the whole backbone's been taken away. They're plugging in what they can to make it look passable, guys like Luinder Avila, Nick Lofton, Lane Thomas, Kameron Misner and Josh Rojas, and they're all very clearly replacement level. Rojas is a decent third base substitution but he's no Maikel Garcia. They have Lucas Erceg manning the ninth for Estevez and it really isn't working out. At the very least, Carter Jensen's excellent behind the plate now, Michael Massey's heating up again at 2nd and Stephen Kolek is still a pretty nice low-rotation option. But you can tell they're trying to cover up some massive holes.

I don't think the Royals are gonna sell TOO much. Wacha or Lugo could go but I don't think they both will. The big pieces are either on rookie contracts or on real long ones. Maybe an Erceg or a Schreiber gets dealt. Who knows. They will recover, they just need even more good young options than what made them a force in 2024, which sounds like a lot. But I look at Cags and it doesn't look that far away.

Coming Tonight [?]: Right when everyone was wondering if he was still an elite hitter, here he comes with his best season at the plate in years. 

Lugo for Broke

 

The Royals' season was already kinda going down the toilet, despite the amount of talent baked into it. But now, Bobby Witt Jr.'s got right knee soreness and it feels like the whole season could be hinging on it. Remember 2024, where everybody showed up and made this a formidable, varied team with so many different points to hit teams with? Now we're at 'if Witt's gone there's no point'. 

Cause like...when one of the big storylines of the WBC is 'look at Caglianone and Pasquantino go for Team Italy', and then they get back and Pasquatch hits .220 with a .650 OPS and Caglianone takes a month to get going, has a strong May then gets hurt...that's false advertising, man. Every spring for the past four years has been 'look at how well Vinnie Pasquantino's been playing', and then the season starts and he hits .220. He just does this. Mr. February. Right now it's Witt, Cags, Maikel Garcia and surprisingly Michael Massey who are the only people currently doing well in the lineup. Salvador Perez is technically hitting, but he's hitting .204. They're phasing him out of catching more and more, and while Carter Jensen is a slight upgrade, he's been slumping a bit lately. The lineup just doesn't have the forcefulness and depth that it used to, and even the Twins are doing more in that department right now.

As for the rotation...the draw in 2024 was that if you have Cole Ragans up top, then Seth Lugo and Brady Singer, and then Michael Wacha's your fourth man, it's still gonna be difficult. Having the depth of 'here are some young fireballers who can beat you and also here are two 34-year-olds who can also beat you' is how they got far in 2024. Now, Bubic and Ragans are hurt, Marsh is still hurt, Stephen Kolek's out on leave, and the sole lines of defense are Seth Lugo, who's good but not 2024 good, Michael Wacha, who's still very good, and Noah Cameron who's good now but took a while to get there...with the other two days' worth of options being Luinder Avila and a shrug....yeah, that's not deep. They're getting Kolek back tomorrow, that will help. And worse comes to worse they could try Ryan Bergert, if they needed to. But it's much less formidable now. Lugo's still a fundamentally good pitcher, he's got a 3.91 ERA and 64 Ks, but he's getting dangerously close to Chris Bassitt territories of innings-eating. Bullpen isn't great either.

The rumor is that, once Matt Quatraro loses his job this year [how the hell is Oli Marmol gonna out last this guy?], the Royals are gonna try to court Albert Pujols to take over, and that might help things, but...I dunno if this team is a managerial regime away from being fixed. If you keep putting people in position to hit and they don't hit, a new manager can't fix that. Maybe a new GM can, but we don't wanna talk about that yet probably..

Coming Tomorrow- So Paul Skenes has had a rough go of things lately, meaning now was an ideal time for another Pirates pitcher to step up. But then Jared Jones got rocked in his first start back. So it was up to this other guy.

Surviving on Witt Alone?

 

The good news is the Royals are ahead of the Tigers in the standings. The bad news is they're in fourth. 

It's clear, a couple years removed from the season where the Royals nearly chased the Yankees and went all in, that the infrastructure for this Royals team was imperfect. Relying on a bunch of pitchers that weren't always reliable shouldn't have been the plan. Obviously Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Cameron and Bubic could come together in spurts, or on their own, for greatness but getting them all to be healthy and thriving at the same time has been a challenge. Right now, Wacha's pitching well, Lugo's pitching well, Cameron's getting hit a lot [he was good last night though], and Bubic and Ragans are hurt. And it's not like Stephen Kolek and Luinder Avila are doing badly per se in covering for them, but the strength of the compact unit is not there. The weight is on Wacha right now and it shouldn't be. It should really be on Cameron but apparently a year in the majors has done damage on his throwing arm. Meanwhile, Lucas Erceg is still covering the ninth for Carlos Estevez, and while he's got 11 saves I still think he's just better off as a setup man.

The lineup infrastructure is marginally better but I think everyone assumed Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, Isaac Collins and Jonathan India would mean more to this team than they have. You have a guy like the Pasquatch, being the character that he is, and you expect some modicum of success. The dude's hitting .184. I root for the guy, because you can't not, but he only seems to succeed when the pressure's off. Massey still hasn't put together a solid enough full season effort, he's hitting .217. Isaac Collins's sophomore effort, yes he's only a sophomore, is a .215 season with middling defense. All of these guys are 28, by the way. Not that the window's completely closed, as Bobby Witt is 26 after all, but it's closING. 

And yes, this team does have some youth, but it hasn't locked all the way in yet. Carter Jensen is a solid power hitter but the team is afraid to let him catch. This team has SALVADOR PEREZ, who is 36 and not his old self, and they're afraid to let Jensen catch. Cause Perez is at least a solid enough framer who can call out the umps' BS in the age of the ABS. He's only hitting .211, but he's got 8 home runs, which leads the team. I still hope this team can eventually bring up a catcher who's good at defense AND can hit, and isn't just one or the other. M.J. Melendez was not the guy, I worry Jensen isn't either. Jac Caglianone does seem like he's on the right track though, with 5 homers and 10 RBIs, plus a .750 OPS, which is the second-highest on this team. That's...frightening. But Cags is still looking like the exact kind of piece the Royals hoped he was. This adds to the already strong Maikel Garcia, trying to build off his 2025, hitting .255 and trying to get hotter. He and Witt are doing what they can to ensure this isn't completely forgettable.

I can't completely count the Royals out, because I can't completely count the Tigers out and if I counted the Royals out too it'd be hypocritical. It's just looking very uninspired right now. But the way this division is looking, it's still not completely decided.

Coming Tomorrow- A big, beefy power bat for a team already surprising a lot of people.

The Slow Climb Back

 

Even as every team goes through a rough period, the AL Central is beginning to finally right itself. The Twins are in last, the Royals have had a good week and are looking to lap the White Sox. Things are finally straightening out. That doesn't mean the Royals have no cause for alarm after the dismal first month of the season, but...it means things aren't as dire as they looked.

What's helped most recently is the fact that Jac Caglianone can finally hit at the MLB level. He's got a .788 OPS, 4 homers, a heroic moment or two under his belt. He's not looking as lost as he did last year. Same with Carter Jensen, who's actually leading the team in homers with 6. It's a nice spike until you realize that they're really the only first or second year guys actually doing well right now. Noah Cameron's fallen off since his strong 2025, Isaac Collins isn't hitting, Luinder Avila isn't MLB ready yet. The whole point around building a team around Witt and Garcia is for the pieces to fall into place around them, and barring those two lineup pieces it hasn't quite happened. Lugo, Wacha and Bubic are off to great starts, but that's not really foundational.

The antithesis to that statement is that if you don't have to worry about your top 3 guys, that's not a drawback. Michael Wacha is 34, he's been in the league for fourteen years now [!!!!!], and he's somehow gotten better with age. What's great about Wacha is even if he wasn't giving pristine starts, he was still there for the majority of the season and gave you your money's worth innings-wise. Since signing with KC, he's made nearly all his starts, averaged 168 innings and a 3.50 ERA, and kept the ship steady whenever needed. Right now he's got a 3.05 ERA, a 3-2 record and 36 Ks for the Royals. He's not meant to be the ace, but he's meant to be a strong middle option, and that's exactly what he's been. Same with Seth Lugo, who isn't at full 2024 power but still has a 2.68 ERA through 7 starts. Bringing in Stephen Kolek to potentially liven up the rotation is a very good idea as well.

I'm just not seeing the full depth that scared the Yankees a few years ago. Beyond Witt, Garcia, Cags and Pasquatch, what really is there to this team? The back half hasn't woken up yet. Massey, Thomas and Collins haven't proven their worth. Perez is resting on mythology. India's done for the year. I know a lot can develop, and the Royals are hoping it can, but as is I really don't see the story. Luckily, I can't really see much of a story with the rest of the division either.

Coming Tomorrow- The Cardinals have a lot of guys who were supposed to be THE guy on their team right now. Matthew Liberatore, Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Dustin May. Here's the latest and greatest. He's doing alright so far. 

Don't Sleep on the Royals

 

Most other teams would be discouraged by the fact that their 9 hitter was doing the most damage two weeks in. I think the Royals are just relieved that Kyle Isbel remembered how to hit in the first place.

Cause the idea that I got was that Isbel was a defense-first outfielder who stayed in the lineup in spite of his lack of hitting success. Always a low-ish WAR, not a ton of true offensive production, maybe an RBI here and there, but mostly just nice catches. Right now Isbel is hitting .478 with 5 RBIs and 2 homers, plus 11 hits overall in 7 games. He got to 11 hits in 13 less plate appearances than Maikel Garcia. Logic dictates this is a early surge that could disappear in time for Bobby Witt, Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino getting hot, but...it shows you that even the 9 guy can go nuts for this team. 

This is why you can never really count out the Royals under this current administration [I mean Quatraro, I'm not making a broader statement about anything else]. They've got crazy depth and a wide range of options. Kyle Isbel can swing in and go crazy on contact. Maikel Garcia can be the hero, as he has been frequently lately. Salvy Perez can still swing a bat, AND he can hold his own against the umps. The plan seems to be to platoon Lane Thomas and Isaac Collins til either one shows long term readiness, which I think works considering they've both shown a partial spark at least. They also have Starling Marte hanging about, and he can occasionally pitch in, when not being roped into a lineup when the usual DH option is oversleeping. 

The place where I see the depth running out might actually be the bullpen. Carlos Estevez is out, and Lucas Erceg is taking the closing assignments. It could be going a lot better. Only Nick Mears is showing any degree of dominance of this unit. Everybody else has been very human, and very ineffective. Even Matt Strahm, who I bet is missing Philly about now, is trying to get his ERA back below 4. The starting guys have been okay for the most part, despite the high home run totals [Michael Wacha just gave up one for Steven Kwan]. And I do think, if Bubic and Ragans and Lugo can stay healthy this year, they're playoff-caliber. But I just don't know if the pitching has the same level of depth as the hitting. They brought up Luinder Avila the other day to face the Brewers, and he got kinda chewed up by 'em. Ryan Bergert is waiting if need be, but there's not a lot of surefire guys lined up next, at least not yet.

Still, the Royals look decent, and if Witt really takes off this year they could go on a tear. I can already see some real strengths. We'll just see how far they can take these guys.

Coming Tomorrow- After years of trade rumors, the Cubs finally gave this guy the extension he deserves. Now the real work begins. 

On the Possibility of an American WBC Title, Now

 

[DISCLAIMER: I go into some...unconquered, on purpose, territory with this post, talking about current events. If this one isn't to your liking in that respect, I apologize. This had just been on my mind.]

I can't think about what the U.S. team is thinking about heading into the WBC. It's the most high-stakes low-stakes tournament possible.

Like, say you're Bobby Witt, or whoever. You're a charter member of the US team, a mid-lineup star, and you are being tasked with performing to the best of your ability, for your country, and then after winning this you have to immediately go back and perform to the best of your ability for the Royals in both what could be the last full season for a little while AND the a season that coincides with the 250th anniversary of the country. There are a lot of people who would really like the US to win some sports tournaments this year, considering the WBC is happening, and then the World Cup is happening in North America. And being very honest, there's more of a chance of a WBC Championship title than a FIFA World Title this year. 

Now, the US team has won a WBC before, in 2017. But the stakes were lower, this was before everyone knew who Ohtani was, and this was before it became the tentpole that it is now. Now you've got more of a drive for players to participate, and more pressure for the greats of the game to do it, even if it risks injury. And there's already been nonsense about insurance, teams not sending players out cause they worry they're gonna get hurt, and that's already lightened some roster loads. Yet I think that this is a point where, for some reason, some indistinct reason that isn't coming to mind somehow, the US needs a pride boost. And I think these guys have taken it to heart to embody the sort of patriotic, 'I love America' sensibility to capture the nation. Like apparently they're playing Toby Keith on busrides, going heavy on the patriotism and all of that. And...I say this respectfully, but...I dunno if that's the move, especially when a team that's supposed to reflect the sum of the nation's best ballplayers only has Byron Buxton and Aaron Judge as nonwhite representatives. 

I think this tournament happening right after the Olympics has added more pressure as well, cause there was something where people were representing the country on the world's stage and you saw a contrast of the ways that can be done. You had people all over looking at people like Alysa Liu or Jack Hughes and going 'why aren't they representing America the way I want them to?'. I think both the figure skating win and the hockey wins were good for the country for different reasons, but I think some wins were more reflective of the potential of the American experiment than others. And how that ties into patriotism, especially at this moment, made some wins easier to stomach than others. The immediate contrast between how someone reacts to winning an Olympic medal and then how they rationalize this as a degree of American patriotism could be stark at points. Because it can be argued that representing the country, and all that comes with it, means something different now.

And so that informs a lot of forethought about the WBC, and how a winning US squad will look now, after the Men's Hockey Team's win, in an era where not only is the US team evenly matched in this tournament but there is also the idea of a forthcoming women's baseball league, which will lead to an even larger conversation. What does it mean if this team wins now? Does it mean anything? Is it good for the game, for the country? 

I suppose the upside of this is you get people from the deepest reaches of the country. I think about guys like Mason Miller, who's a local hero in West Virginia for his time as a college athlete there. An old friend who grew up in that area followed Miller to the majors and cheered him on as he became the best relief asset in baseball. Everywhere you've got pockets of people who must have known one of these guys as they came up and got to see them make the majors. That is the American dream, to come from anywhere, from anything, and succeed on the world's stage. 

It's just very difficult to be all 'rah-rah, America's the greatest' right now. Even if there's enough people like Bryce Harper and Cal Raleigh and Bobby Witt trying to craft the story of an American monolith that takes down any country in its path...I'm not entirely sure that's an especially helpful narrative at the moment. I'm not saying they should punt the World Baseball Classic, just keel over against the Czechia team or something, but...if they want to look like the heroes this tournament, they need to keep their perception in mind. The 2017 team was exciting because they represented the state of the game, and the country, in an optimistic way. If there's a way for the US team to do that now, they need to figure it out. Because right now, Japan winning is a better story, the Dominican Republic winning is a better story, Puerto Rico winning is a better story, even Czechia and their plumbers and dentists would be an unbelievable story. 

All of those teams don't dream about giving up a home run to Aaron Judge, they think about striking him out. So if we're gonna be the heroes again this time around, we're gonna need to earn it.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Royals

 

On the surface, there's not a ton fundamentally different between the Royals team that went deep last year and the Royals team that missed the playoffs this year. Both AL Central teams that made it this year rode huge waves of hot streaks, and the Royals couldn't really do that in the second half. The Royals were also without Cole Ragans for a lot of the season, and had a limited version of Seth Lugo. Plus, the Brady Singer for Jonathan India trade, which I could have told you was short-sighted to begin with, robbed them of a crucial workhorse. With the pitching depleted, not even the best closer in the AL could keep them in the divisional race. With no fault of Witt, Garcia or Bubic, the Royals stayed home this October. That doesn't mean the Quantaro era is through, and considering the young talent taking over it may just be taking off.

On the plus side, the Royals got another great season of offensive production from their captain, Salvador Perez. From the looks of things his ability to play great defense behind the plate is pretty much gone, and all that remains is an above average power bat to play DH everyday, which isn't a bad thing. This year marked Salvy's third 100+ RBI year [100 exactly], and his second year of 30 or more homers [30 exactly]. This season put him over not only the 300 homer mark but the 1000 RBI mark, both very good things, even if Perez isn't exactly a lock for the Hall of Fame.

2026 Prediction: So his contract is up, but I don't think Salvy has any desire to play somewhere other than KC, so I think they're gonna give him the Kershaw/Cutch track. Just keep re-upping, as long as you wanna play for. Next year won't exactly be a 100+ RBI year but he'll be relied upon as a power bat for sure.

Cole Ragan has been so good since coming over from Arlington that a mediocre season felt like a huge blow to the Royals' plans. And it's weird to say that about a year where Ragans still had 98 strikeouts in 13 games. He obviously can still outsmart batters, and he's still very dominant, but he had a 4.67 ERA this year, and whatever went wrong was clearly enough to sideline him for the rest of the season almost. The good news is that he was strong for his first few starts, and his September starts were a big part of why his ERA went below 5. But man that April-May stretch where he was clearly hurt wasn't fun.

2026 Prediction: As I write this, the Royals have been rumored to be shopping Ragans, potentially gauging Boston's interest considering that Jarren Duran might still need to be moved as well. I don't think Ragans will end up being moved though, and he'll have a stronger, fuller year for the Royals.

Kyle Isbel has been a steady, reliable outfield choice for the Royals for the last several years. In 135 games this year, Isbel hit .255 with 33 RBIs, but the offensive angle is not the takeaway, as he's such a great option in center field that it makes the team more well-rounded. Witt, Garcia, Isbel, Michael Massey to a degree- they're all excellent defenders that are helping the Royals stay in it and stay formidable. Yes, the power hitting helps too, but you can't outscore opponents if you don't have a Kyle Isbel.

2026 Prediction: The hope is that eventually they get someone who'll relegate Isbel to a Myles Straw-esque substitution, but I don't think that happens next year. Does more of the same.

Ever since coming back from his injuries in Cincinnati, Michael Lorenzen has made a name for himself as an underrated, durable starting option. In Anaheim, Detroit, Philadelphia, Texas and now Kansas City, Lorenzen has eaten innings, had nice starts and done exactly what's been asked of him. 2025 was something of a setback for Lorenzen, as he went 7-11 with a 4.64 ERA in 26 starts, but he still made 140 innings, and, miraculously, he led the team in strikeouts with 127, beating his nearest competition [Lugo and Wacha] by only one or two Ks. 

2026 Prediction: Why stop now? There's tons of teams that could use Lorenzen. Arizona maybe? Milwaukee? Baltimore? St. Louis? I think he'll have a better year for any of 'em. 

For the second year in a row, one of the most effective relief specialists for the Royals was Lucas Erceg. In a full year with this team, he doubled his output and wired in, with an 8-4 record, a 2.64 ERA and a 1.174 WHIP. He did miss a smidge of time midyear but still made 61 appearances. 

2026 Prediction: I think with Erceg the magic is more likely to keep going than fade off now. The Royals will be better next year, and Erceg will continue his strong work, complete with an averted close call in October.

It is the year 2025, the game is ruled by a guy who was at LSU like two years ago, the Royals called up Jac Caglianone, and Rich Hill, who is 45, still pitched in MLB games. The Royals had him on for two starts this year in between some roster moves, and Hill...well, Hill pitched like a 45-year-old man. Not everyone can be Philip Rivers. He had a 5 ERA over 9 innings, gave up 5 earned runs and lost both games. Yet he still struck out 4. 

2026 Prediction: I know logically he's probably done, but this man still probably thinks himself indestructible. He is, after all, a New England Patriots fan. Look, if the Pats miss the AFC Championship, he might decide there's still more to do. If Drake Maye isn't there yet, he can just keep holding out til he is. So uh...screw it, Sox invite him to camp, makes 4 starts, has one insane scoreless outing. Why not, man? 

Adam Frazier, who was a good depth infield piece for the Royals last year, made a return before the deadline after spending a bit more time in Pittsburgh and remembering why he was grateful that he left. In 56 games in KC, he made up for a slow spring and hit .283 with 4 homers and 23 RBIs. Frazier, despite his best efforts, has become one of the more in demand utility infield helpers in the game, and the Royals clearly know that.

2026 Prediction: Why do I feel like the Royals already re-upped him? If they haven't already, they really should, it's nice to have security for Michael Massey.

In a move that shocked a lot of people, especially me, the Giants traded Mike Yastrzemski to the Royals. All that goodwill, all he'd done for the team, gone. Yaz only did so much to help the Royals' similarly doomed stretch run, but in 50 games he hit .237 with 9 homers and 18 RBIs, amounting to an .839 OPS. Clearly this one panned out for them, in addition to boosting Yaz's free agency case.

2026 Prediction: It's not gonna initially feel like it, but the Braves made the absolute correct choice nabbing him. It'll kick in very late.

In exchange for catcher Freddy Fermin, who, as I'll explain, they may not have needed anyway, the Royals got two more depth starting options to plug in for injured aces. Stephen Kolek had a 4.18 ERA in San Diego this year, and while he only got 5 starts in Kansas City, they were very sharp starts. Kolek had a 1.91 ERA, a 0.758 WHIP, 21 Ks and a 1.1 WAR after that month of work.

2026 Prediction: I think of the two guys they got, Kolek has more of a chance of getting flexed to a long relief position, but he'll have some nice starts when needed.

Ryan Bergert, at 25, has the higher ceiling of the two, and looked like the better choice in San Diego, with a 2.78 ERA in 11 appearances, 7 being starts. His KC work was less sharp, with a 4.43 ERA and 39 Ks in 8 starts. Cumulatively it's a 3.66 ERA, 1.4 WAR, 73 K season, which isn't awful to be fair.

2026 Prediction: Big year. Makes all his starts, becomes a really strong third man in this rotation.

After a certain point this year, there was really no avoiding it. Jac Caglianone, one of the top prospects in baseball, needed to come up. Unfortunately, as ready as he was in triple-A, his perks weren't all immediately evident in the majors in 2025. In 62 games, Caglianone hit .157, with 7 homers and 18 RBIs. He is 22 years old, just getting the hang of things, and will be fine. Not everyone can be Bobby Witt and have a rookie year that still looks better than 98% of rookie years even if, for Witt, it's mediocre. 

2026 Prediction: It won't be a full smash, but I think for three months we're gonna see some high quality offensive performance from this guy. I just don't know if it'll be right out of camp.

Dealing Freddy Fermin away lampshaded the fact that the Royals had another option at catcher in the wings, and eventually Carter Jensen was deployed. In 20 games he bat exactly .300 with 3 homers and 13 RBIs, already showing promise as a contact bat in addition to fine catching skills. 

2026 Prediction: The Royals are going to sign a career backup, somebody like Elias Diaz or James McCann, as a security measure, but Jansen will be the starter and he'll be ASG-quality.

Coming Tomorrow- A lot of auxiliary members of a Tigers team that couldn't quite follow up on the promises of their 2024 run.

Pasquatch the Throne

 

So, thanks to the Mariners just absolutely refusing to move forward despite every opportunity to, we've now got a much spicier wild card race. Because now, the Rangers, Royals, Guardians and Rays are all in it for that last spot along with the Mariners. That's four other teams who weren't wild card threats before, but since the Mariners just forgot how to win games in August again it's gonna be close.

The Royals, honestly, have been waiting for an opportunity to show people they've still got something. Obviously this season has been a step down for them, without Cole Ragans and with less Seth Lugo and Kris Bubic, and with a somewhat depleted lineup. Bobby Witt is having another marquee year, but it can't just be up to him, and seeing Jonathan India, Michael Massey, Hunter Renfroe and, most notably, Jac Caglianone, fail to meet expectations has been insulting. This was a team that seemed so pissed off by how the season ended last year, and they go back out here and basically prove the Yankees right? The rotation's depleted, the back half of the lineup's caved in and despite being competitive late, they're only 2 games over .500.

What's keeping this Royals team alive is the heart of the lineup. Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez are all providing the offensive production needed to compete. Pasquatch has really caught up in the last few months, and has 29 homers and 94 RBIs, meaning he's got a good chance of passing both thresholds. Last year Pasquantino was the factor that propelled the Royals towards October, and he's in position to do it again. You also have Bobby Witt Jr. looking at the possibility of a 30-30 season, Salvy Perez on the heels of his sixth 25+ homer year, and the very wise acquisition of Mike Yastrzemski, who now has 7 homers and 14 RBIs after a month with this team. It could be awkward if the Giants somehow make the playoffs without him, but we'll see how likely that is this month. 

Again, it's the pitching that worries me regarding this team's playoff hopes. Right now, without Lugo or Bailey Falter, their rotation consists of Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron, a slightly banged-up Michael Lorenzen, Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. On one hand, this is why they traded for Bergert and Kolek, knowing that they'd need rotation depth. And honestly, they've added a lot. Bergert's got a 2.43 ERA and 31 Ks in 6 starts, and Kolek's first KC start went well, with only 1 earned run in 6 innings. It's not ideal, and the only ace-esque guy here is Wacha, who's arguably better as a 3 or 4 man in a rotation, but I suppose it'll do. But for a competitive team desperate for a playoff spot, is 'it'll do' enough?

The Royals are close. They made it last year, and they could sneak in this year if things fall their way. If it doesn't happen this year, with a revitalized rotation next year I feel a lot better about them. Either way, they're not exactly gonna lose much stock.

Coming Tonight: I think there are so many scrappy Cubs second year relief guys that it took me til the other day to learn that this guy's a rookie. And it makes what he's doing even crazier. 

Timing the Eclipse

 

The story so far: the Cleveland Guardians sold at the deadline despite being in range of a wild card spot, while the Royals bought at the deadline despite having a lot longer to go to get to one. And now they're within a half-game of each other. One team going one direction, the other team colliding. And it makes me wonder one very important question: if the Guardians had done NOTHING, if they hadn't traded everybody pre-season, would they still have competed?

The Guardians nearly got to a World Series last year, and they did it with a new manager and a team that had been building for a while, plus a number of rookies that helped them grow, like Kyle Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, Daniel Schneemann and Cade Smith. Then during the offseason they trade Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez and Myles Straw, and let Matthew Boyd go in free agency. Then during the season, a number of the guys that ruled them in 2024, like Noel, Lane Thomas, David Fry, Brayan Rocchio and Tanner Bibee fail to deliver, Ben Lively gets injured after 9 games, the betting scandal takes out two of their best pen guys, and they now have to trade Paul Sewald and Shane Bieber. If they keep around the people whose absences put more pressure on Rocchio, Fry, Noel and Thomas, then maybe the team doesn't fall off this year, and they're actually able to stay in it. 

And even after the limited selling the Guardians did do, as they were also supposed to trade Emmanuel Clase, Steven Kwan and Carlos Santana but decided not to, didn't really stop them too much. Two weeks elapsed from the deadline and in that stretch they went 10-2. Gavin Williams became the ace they needed. Kyle Manzardo crossed 20 homers and cemented himself as a needed power bat. They were chasing the Yankees for that last wild card spot. And then last week they stopped in their tracks, the Yanks got hot, and now the Royals are at their feet.

Now...does it feel to anyone else like the Guardians miiiight be deliberately throwing this season? I cannot see any reason why, after last season went so well, this team now suddenly has to give up. I think this has to do with some of the points Tony Clark is raising in order to advocate for a salary floor, because owners really aren't encouraged to keep a team competitive, especially in mid-level markets like Cleveland. There's no reason the Guardians shouldn't have still gone for it this year, and the fact that they're sinking to the point of sitting out the playoffs seems very much like an inside job. 

Meanwhile, the Royals were a sleeper wild card team last year, had a smaller season this year, bought at the deadline and are now 12-6 since the deadline. Their deadline strategy, for the most part, has paid off: while Bailey Falter has struggled since coming over, former Padres also-ran Ryan Bergert has been fantastic in a starting role, with 2.70 ERA and 17 Ks in his first 3 starts in KC. Adam Frazier has gotten right back to where he left off last year, hitting .316 with 2 homers and 13 RBIs in 24 games. Mike Yastrzemski has 4 homers and 7 RBIs in 15 games, and is already being welcomed by the fans. This is a season that could have been halted by losing Caglianone and Bubic and there they go.

And where the rookies in Cleveland have failed to continue delivering, the young guys in Kansas City have continued to carry this team. Noah Cameron has taken on a lot of the load during his rookie season, starting 17 games, and doing so with a 2.47 ERA and a 7-5 record. Cameron is a very well-needed presence in a rotation that has already lost Bubic and Ragans. You've also seen a breakout year for Maikel Garcia, some excellent August production from John Rave, and even Vinnie Pasquantino FINALLY beginning to get hot. Obviously the stars, like Witt and Lugo and Perez and Wacha, can perform, but the Royals needed the supporting guys to step up [like the Guards' should have], and they have. And that's why I'm a lot more confident in them stepping into the wild card race.

I think either of these two could be fun presences in the mix for the AL, but with an already crowded field there may be room for only one, or neither if the Mariners can stop from completely bottoming out. They're both gonna have to see how their approaches will pan out, I guess.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who...sort of had the right idea leaving Cleveland?

What Constitutes a Run These Days

 

I've been trying to wrap my head around this for the last week, and it's still not completely making sense to me. So...the Royals bought in at the deadline, sustained enough of their team to go for a wild card spot, and they're currently 57-58, 4 games out from a spot. The Miami Marlins have become a surprise sleeper favorite, have been winning a ton of close series', and might be going for a spot themselves. They're 56-57, 6 games out from a wild card spot.

But the San Francisco Giants, who sold at the deadline, vivisected their bullpen and even gave a major piece TO THE ROYALS...are 58-57, above .500, and closer in the line of succession to a wild card spot than the Royals or the Marlins. I don't understand why Buster Posey and his committee thought that his team didn't have enough to go for it when they very clearly still have an outside chance of sneaking their way in. Was it just more cost effective to give up than to go for a run? Who knows.

The Royals have always been a 'they're right there but just don't have enough' team in the divisional race. The Tigers were always gonna be the favorite, and the Guardians had enough to chase teams even though they completely ran from what made them a success last year. The Royals had the team, but not the luck- Ragans got hurt, Bubic got hurt, Pasquantino's been *okay*, and Caglianone's been below replacement level since the call-up. This is a very okay team that happens to have some excellent performers lifting them. Bobby Witt Jr. is still elite, he's hitting .287 with 16 homers and 64 RBIs, and leads the league in doubles with 37. Carlos Estevez leads the league in saves with 28. Maikel Garcia proved he's got serious staying power. Noah Cameron's a rookie mop-up guy who can also have big-game starts. And Michael Wacha of all people has been having a strong, consistent year, with a 3.36 ERA and 98 Ks in 23 starts. The hope is that Bailey Falter comes around and provides that back-half security, but that first start was rough. 

The bones of a good team are still there with the Royals. The only issue is that, as opposed to last year where they had a strong middle and road that to the playoffs, now they have to be the 2024 Tigers and get momentum late and sneak in on that. And that is very hard to do. Heck, the former strategy only worked so well for the Royals anyway last year. Their goal was to be better than the 2024 team, and I don't know if they are.

The Giants, meanwhile, made every effort to retool and get a leg up on the competition and it didn't initially work. That Willy Adames looks as good as he does now, with 18 homers and a team-leading 61 RBIs, shouldn't distract you from his very rough first two months. He's getting hot in a Giants uniform now, which is very good, but while the team was in the thick of the race he was struggling. The inverse of that is Jung-Hoo Lee, who was excellent in the earlier part of the season but took a downturn when the team did. He's now hitting .246 with a .737 OPS. Very average. And Rafael Devers has hit for power, but not as often as the team would like, with 5 homers and 20 RBIs in 43 games.

For the Giants to make a playoff spot, they'd need to fight against the luck the organization has made for them. That means continuing to ride a strong stretch from Dominic Smith, getting better innings out of Carson Whisenhunt and Justin Verlander, keeping Heliot Ramos producing for more than a second and not letting the loss of Yaz completely upend them. It will be very tough for this team to compete now that the brass has lost faith in them, but it's still possible. 

What I'm saying is if, of these three teams, the one that makes the playoffs is the Marlins, I'll be very amused.

Coming Tomorrow- Catchers turned 1st basemen aren't that exotic anymore, but this is one that I'm still getting used to.

The All-Star B-Team

 

What has become clear ever since he took the reins of the league is that Rob Manfred does intrinsically want to make baseball better for its fans and players, but because he only comes at this from an executive point of view his perspective is completely adverse to what the reality of what these people want actually is. He's come in and his goal has been to revitalize the game and fix all the problems people have had with it, and it's really admirable, but I don't know how many casual fans he really talks to. A real baseball fan won't tell you a game is too long, or that the players at the All-Star game should all wear one uniform. But he's so caught in the realm of focus groups and accessibility and the corporate brand thinking that he simply cannot please the majority of the fandom. Thus I pity him.

You've gotten the sense that Manfred has really wanted to revamp and change the All-Star Game, which honestly didn't really need that much retooling. He took away the 'home field advantage' gimmick, which helped, and they're beginning to phase back into players wearing their own uniforms, but problems still persist. And the biggest problem with the All-Star Game, and the festivities surrounding it, is that nobody wants to fricking participate anymore.

Now, it is one thing to have injuries creep up and prevent people from partaking, and enough of that has happened. Big pieces like Chris Sale, Jeremy Pena and Brandon Lowe got injured since being named, they're missing the game, that's fine. That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about the fact that people genuinely don't want to do it this year. It feels burdensome for people. It didn't always feel like that, that's why Cal Ripken did like 20 of them. But now you've seen two different players make official statements saying 'I would rather not play in the game this year, because I would rather focus on the rest of the season and my own health'. Jose Ramirez, who was supposed to start, and Julio Rodriguez, have both dropped out of the game, because it's not worth the risk to go to Atlanta and potentially risk not helping their teams compete. 

The one case that pisses me off is Alex Bregman, who came second in the fan voting for 3rd base, yet was announced to be missing the game due to injury. So Isaac Paredes was nominated, as was Junior Caminero in place of Ramirez. But...now Bregman just got activated, and can make the game...and because he already called in a sub, there's nothing anyone can do about it. Hell, the AL even added ANOTHER third baseman, namely Maikel Garcia. And let me specify that Garcia is having a nice season, hitting around .300 and providing some consistent multi-tool support in Kansas City, before I say that when the FIFTH CHOICE FOR THIRD BASEMAN IS GETTING ON, there is a problem! Paredes and Caminero getting on is fine, they were in the mix before, but now Garcia is getting ridiculous, because now you're nominating people that arguably wouldn't have deserved an ASG nod unless all this bullshit happened.

As for the usual bullshit of people pitching Sunday not being able to play in the game, that part is fine, we've been over this, it's a necessary evil. But this year this has grown to include the Saturday before, meaning SEVERAL pitchers who I would say are the best in the league, including Zack Wheeler, Max Fried, Garrett Crochet and Jacob deGrom, can't play in the game. Or, moreover, don't want to. In some cases I get it, deGrom and Crochet really don't want to risk injury, that's fine. But at a certain point it just gets excessive. Cause now Wheeler can't play in the All-Star game during the best season of his career, and you're putting up Adrian Morejon as a consolation. Plus, Yusei Kikuchi can't pitch in this, and now there's no Angels eligible for the game. If you're gonna do the 'every team needs a nod' thing, stick to it. 

That's what's pissing me off. The actual All-Stars either don't want to play or can't play due to overtaxing themselves, and thus people who honestly shouldn't be All-Stars are stuck in there. This is some NBA All-Star Game shit, where you vote in Giannis and Durant and then Donte DiVincenzo plays for like 20 minutes. Nobody is lining up to watch an All-Star Game where David Peterson pitches to Zach McKinstry. It's just 'The People Who Can Make It: Live from Atlanta" now. 

And yes, there are people who this doesn't apply to who will no doubt play in the game, there will be Skenes and Judge and Acuna and Ohtani, by law pretty much. But the sense of fun and excitement from 50 years ago, or even 25 years ago, seems to be gone. Getting a field of 8 for the Home Run Derby was like herding cats this year. The All-Star Celebrity Softball Game features 20 people I'm convinced were made up by AI. It feels like they're really trying to make this something special but too many people just aren't into it. And the way things are going organization-wise in the league, who can blame them?

One cool thing I will say about this ASG? They're gonna be using an ABS system. Meaning if Manfred knows what's good for him, he'll seriously consider utilizing it down the road in MLB games. Because if your legacy is continuing to let 67-year-old men who can't see halfway across the field judge balls and strikes instead of automating it, that won't exactly get you a plaque in Cooperstown. Unless you buy it. 

Waste Management

 

I understand that the Mets were following the plan that made the most sense to them. Getting Harvey, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz and deGrom at the same time was very big for them. There wasn't always room to start games. Seth Lugo got his fair share, but was never a priority. Even as people left and less-than-favorable options appeared in Queens, Lugo remained a bullpen option. Then he becomes a free agent in 2023 and starts fielding offers as a starter. The Padres bite, he does well, the Royals give him a better deal, and last year he has a Cy Young caliber season. However, he is now 35. I know it's possible to have great starting careers after 30, Charlie Morton has proved this, but...that doesn't leave Lugo much time to be a truly great starter. 

The Mets had someone that could have been another sure thing for them, and they did nothing with him. And of course this year they sign Clay Holmes to start games like it's the same thing. It's not.

Lugo, so far for the Royals, has been as consistent as ever. He's got a 2.93 ERA, a 1.048 WHIP and a 2.1 WAR. The issue is he's 4-5, because the Royals aren't as good this year and haven't had a great monthlong run. And he's pitched on mediocre teams and done fine, but...he's 35. I have no idea when Lugo's gonna stop pitching this well. If you waste this season, it's just like wasting the other ones in Queens. You have somebody this good, and you're stuttering around and putting Hunter Renfroe out there and acting like everything's fine. 

And honestly, we're a point where the Royals' rotation is honestly fantastic. Kris Bubic is having his best season to date, with a 3.0 WAR, a 2.18 ERA and 96 Ks. Michael Wacha's having another excellent late-career year, with a 3.24 ERA. Noah Cameron, barring some recent starts, has been extremely consistent, with a 2.08 ERA. Lorenzen, even if his ERA is higher, has been a relatively consistent arm. But only Bubic has a positive W/L ratio. Because the bullpen is so mediocre, because the lineup has so many 'good but not excellent' guys, and because there are just so many competitors who are simply better, this team is squandering a strong, consistent rotation. 

You can see them trying to get a new strategy here, bringing up Jac Caglianone, who's yet to hit above .200 but at least is finding himself. You're getting production from Witt, Pasquantino and Perez. But there still feels like there's elements missing, and it feels like the fire that got them to an NLDS last year isn't there. Maybe things shift and they find someone's presence that fuels a run, but as it is now it's not looking good.

Coming Tomorrow- One of many really sharp young guys keeping the Brewers in the conversation.

Always Be Closing: Some Might Saiyan

 

I think something we're really missing in this era of closing pitching is someone inherently fun. 

I look around at the current breed of closers, and you can really separate them into two categories. The first category is 'intimidating, ferocious people'. People who just throw smoke and scream at the top of their lungs when they notch a save. They deal in abject seriousness and they maintain control of that tone. Kenley Jansen is in this category, Emmanuel Clase is in there, Kirby Yates and Tanner Scott, even Mason Miller to a degree. The second category is 'genuinely unsavory people'. Not just complete intimidation, but just people you don't want to hang around with. Some of them have kind of alarming morals, like Josh Hader and Jason Adam. Some of them broken some MLB laws, like Aroldis Chapman and now Jose Alvarado. 

You may not remember this, but there was once an era where closing pitchers were, across the board pretty much, fun and harmless individuals. Guys like Heath Bell, Troy Percival, Grant Balfour, Fernando Rodney and Andrew Miller. Even if some of them used intimidation, like Trevor Hoffman, they still remembered to smile and have fun. It was really only one bad egg or so, a Jonathan Papelbon here or whichever, that'd standout. And now it's pretty much everybody that's just less than fun to watch. Even once exciting closers like Jordan Romano and Devin Williams have become too infuriating to truly enjoy. Liam Hendriks I figured was the last of the expressive, genuine closers, and that's kind of cheating because he's Australian, and most Australians are pretty chipper on the norm. 

But now here comes Carlos Estevez, intent on turning things around. Estevez has been one of the best closers in the league for the last few years, after spending his upbringing as a relief piece for the Rockies. The Angels signed him to a brief deal, he responded with an ASG-caliber year, then another which became a playoff berth with the Phillies. While a ton of teams looked at Estevez this offseason [Yanks included], the Royals, their bullpen very stocked but lacking in a true ninth inning option, won out.

What makes Estevez fun, in addition to his strong workmanship and consistency, is his calling card in saves. You know what to look for with a lot of these, many closers have their thing they do when they finish a game. Fernando Rodney had his 'archer's position', that's a classic. Many closers address the heavens or do something heartfelt. Carlos Estevez, a true Dragon Ball Z fan, does a kamehameha. For those unfamiliar with DBZ, that's the little 'powering up' motion many of the characters do to 'go full super-saiyan', or achieve full power complete with blonde hair for some reason. I used to watch DBZ as a kid, not because I was that into it but because it was on at 4:00 after school. I remember this, it's a pretty ripe cultural reference, and since Estevez grew up over here, he watched a lot of DBZ, and so he does the kamehameha stance, which is always really fun. I did a custom last year I think of Estevez going Super-Saiyan after a save, I can't just do it in every custom because I want to show his range.

But that's ultimately what we need. Forget the 15 saves by the end of May, forget that he's helping a decent enough team stay in the race. He's a closer that genuinely seems happy to do his job. Too many closers look angry and pissed off and I think we've kinda lost our way. Not everyone needs to be Lee Smith, sometimes you need a Rollie Fingers in there. And I think that's where Estevez skews. I hope he keeps it up, he's been very fun to watch.

Coming Tonight- The Reds have found guys that just go on unbelievable tears and step aside for the next guy to do the same. Here's one of them. 

Top Junior?

 

The modern scope of the MLB is defined by second generation players. Jack Leiter, Jackson Holliday and Jacob Wilson have been some of the top young players of the season thus far, and all of them had a major leaguer as a father. Considering that the NBA has LeBron James getting his son as a bench guy on his own team, and the NFL just had Deion Sanders begging teams to draft his son, the MLB might have the most dignified place for juniors. You can root this back to 1989, where Ken Griffey Jr., Roberto Alomar and Moises Alou burst onto the scene and paved the way for so many sons and descendants of major leaguers to be less of a novelty. Now you have people like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr. and Bo Bichette as some of the heroes of the league.

And this season, so far, the most valuable second generationer might be Bobby Witt Jr. I don't say this lightly, because there's a ton more of them around right now, and they're very important to the current picture of the game. But not only has Witt hit his stride, he might be THE reason to watch the Royals right now.

The Royals, as they are currently...pretty good. They've won 21 games, that's very good, and they've been very hot since April 20th [and we're not gonna read into that], but you can still see some flaws. Looking at this lineup, there is a whole lot of mediocrity. Salvador Perez, Michael Massey, Hunter Renfroe and Jonathan India all have negative WAR at the moment. Renfroe in particular has been atrocious, hitting .160 in 75 at-bats. Vinnie Pasquantino, who was the golden boy last year, is hitting .200, and only hitting when I don't start him in fantasy. Bench guys like Drew Waters and Mark Canha are doing more work than they should. 

But it helps that Witt, at the heart of the lineup, is not at all disappointing. He's hitting .310 with 44 hits, 19 RBIs and a league leading 14 doubles. Every facet of the game, he's excelling at. Great with contact, great at short, great at stealing bases. He's the man of the moment. Yes, Aaron Judge has like a 3.000 OPS or whatever, but he's in his 30s and solidifying. Witt's in his prime and only getting better, and he, Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino make up a very strong core that, even as the lineup sleeps, could keep things exciting going forward. 

The pitching has gotten the Royals this far, and it will continue to. Lugo and Ragans stepped over early hiccups to get back to complete dominance. Bubic is still sub-2.00. Lorenzen and Wacha have had rough starts but are still really reliable. Estevez has worked like a charm in the ninth and the bullpen has so many really tough arms, Lucas Erceg chief among them. This pitching staff can get the Royals back to the postseason, so hopefully the lineup shifts so that it's not relying on Witt alone.

Witt, if he keeps it up, will be remembered as fondly as Ken Griffey Jr. But only if he has 10 more seasons like these last two.

Coming Tonight: The Yankees will try to convince themselves that they always needed to trade him, but I don't think I'm ever gonna not miss him. Especially as he gets the position to himself in Cincinnati.

Their Own Sku?

 

I always used to get Tarik Skubal and Kris Bubic mixed up. Both were brought up around the same time as a bigger pitching prospect [Mize and Singer], both were injured for a solid year and were sort of relegated to the background upon coming back, and both have interesting names. Bubic always stuck out to me because he looked like a cross between the kid from the Wonder Years and Barry Keoghan. Just some young smirky kid who just had no luck whatsoever [a lot like Barry Keoghan in everything he's ever been in, including his relationship with Sabrina Carpenter [people over like 35 can just tune this bit out]]. Last year the rotation was full and there was a whole thing of 'is he just gonna be a bullpen guy now? Is somebody gonna trade for him?', and the Royals clearly saw something in him, cause they traded Singer to make rotation space for him.

So the Royals are working with a rotation of Lugo-Ragans-Lorenzen-Wacha-Bubic right now, and somehow Bubic is the standout. Kinda like Tarik Skubal in Detroit last year. Coming out of virtually nowhere and making a name for himself.

In fairness, unlike Skubal, Bubic came into some trouble with the Yankees. But aside from that he's been brilliant. So far he's got a 1.88 ERA, he's 2-1 and he's struck out 27. Maybe not a huge bar considering Ragans has struck out 42 already, but just some dominant, respectable stuff. Bubic is 27, meaning that if anything's going to happen then it had better happen soon, and the way things are going it's looking like this is the year. Ragans is still strong at the top of the rotation, and the others are at the very least catching up.

The difference maker so far for the Royals has been the bullpen. You saw all the pieces slowly come onto this team last year but fail to coexist. And Lucas Ecreg's injury is kind of a small issue. But Carlos Estevez, Hunter Harvey, Daniel Lynch and John Schreiber have all banded together to form a really nice pack for this 'pen. Harvey's yet to allow a run so far. Estevez already has 5 saves and is looking like his Anaheim self [meaning he really just does better in smaller markets]. Erceg before the injury was pretty rad too, and hopefully he won't be out for too long.

So...pitching-wise, generally, the Royals are in business. The issue is the hitting. Aside from Bobby Witt it's just not really happening right now. Perez, Pasquantino and India are cold. Renfroe's hitting .130. M.J. Melendez got sent down to the minors today. Nobody has more than 2 home runs, or more than 13 RBIs. It's a very quiet, meager bunch, and that's why they're under .500 a year after making the playoffs. Maybe it's the schedule, maybe it's a cold front, but these guys aren't showing up. I'd hate for them to waste such a breakout pitching year.

Hopefully it all comes together, but I, as a fantasy owner, am beginning to lose my patience with Vinnie Pasquantino. The man has always been in position to do great things, and it'd be nice if he did some.

Coming Tomorrow- His start to the season may not be as legendary to his start to 2024, but he's still made a lot of fans in Chicago. 

Brush It Off, Kid

 

It takes a certain kind of person to get a ball thrown at upwards of 90 mph to the face, then get back up the next day and go right back into the line of fire. You have to be tough, resilient, determined and, ultimately, you have to have a sense of humor about yourself. Jonathan India was on the 2020 Reds, so we certainly can tell he can have a laugh at himself, but he's also extremely tough. So him going 3 for 5 with 2 RBIs against the Brewers a day after getting decked by an Emmanuel Clase pitch shouldn't shock you. This might be only the beginning. 

I initially questioned the Royals' motive in trading for Jonathan India, especially giving up Brady Singer for him. The Royals had a perfectly fine infield, Massey and Witt at the center, Garcia and Pasquantino at the corners. Complicating things with India seemed excessive. But India can also play left field, which he's been doing more and more this season, and to be honest defensively it may be the better place for him. I stand firm in my belief that they shouldn't have given up Singer, and seeing how well he did yesterday I think that goes without saying. But considering that the Royals still had several OF spots up in the air, and filled by passable defenders like M.J. Melendez and Hunter Renfroe, getting a surefire guy like India definitely works, and his offensive production has only vindicated this decision. 

So that already defines the Royals. One of their best hitters right now is a guy who literally refuses to back down, even from injury. They're 2-2, losing two against a tough division rival but absolutely crushing the Brewers, themselves still reeling from being embarrassed by the Yankees. This is a team where Pasquantino, Perez, Witt and even Michael Massey can be responsible for crucial RBIs. Yes, Pasquantino is DHing predominantly at the moment after the injury, and the starts at 1st have been going to Mark Canha and Cavan Biggio, but this is why you have depth guys like that. 

But again...so far the starting pitching is the worrying detail. Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans, two of their horses from last year, gave up 3 runs each, Michael Wacha allowed less runs but still got the loss, and Kris Bubic, the guy who came back from an injury and conserved his innings as a bullpen piece last year, looked incredible, and seems to be the only starter doing so thus far. Which goes to show you, if you want to be a great starter, try to avoid doing really well for 33 games the previous year. It'll even out, especially with starters this talented, but it, again, points towards the idea that maybe trading Singer was a bad call. At least the 'pen looks better.

The Royals have a lot of pros so far, but against some truly great teams they've been mostly passable. I have a feeling this team will eventually break even, and considering the presence of peak Bobby Witt it's really a matter of when, but without Jonathan 'unsinkable' India I don't know if they'd have as many highlights. 

Coming Tonight: Probably a member of the [sigh] first place St. Louis Cardinals. 

Together We Once Wore Grey

 

I was thinking about the 2018 Padres the other day. There's the joke that men think about the Roman Empire constantly, but I can bet you nobody thinks about the 2018 Padres. There are names on that team that just shouldn't be spoken. Christian Villanueva. Joey Lucchesi. Carlos Asuaje. They had a guy play in all 162, but he only hit .250 and most of you probably don't remember who even did that. It was dire. Positively dire. 

And yet a youth movement was beginning to brew. The people that don't remember those dreary-ass end of the 2010s Padres teams remember that there were a ton of prospects that popped up around then and looked to take over, and...most of them were dealt before the Seidler runs. People like Nick Margevicius, Cal Quantrill, Chris Paddack, Manuel Margot, Franmil Reyes, Ty France  and Luis Urias. They were even more prominent in 2019, when the biggest prize of the farm system, Fernando Tatis Jr., took to the majors like a fish to water and, despite an injury costing him a chunk of the season, almost singlehandedly revitalizing the team. 

And now you look at the Padres and they're almost unrecognizable from that scrappy, homegrown 2019 squad. First of all they took back the brown and gold, that was a great move heading into 2020, I'm glad Machado and Tatis only had one seeing wearing those unmemorable navy and greys. But, as I alluded to, pretty much every youth piece the Padres had in that 2018-19 era got dealt. It's really just Tatis and Adrian Morejon, a guy who's evaded trades by just not being healthy til now, left. It's rare for a team to sell almost the entirety of the farm system and still make it deep into the playoffs, but the Padres have done this, and are still competitors.

Tatis, though, still feels like an odd figure in the development of this team. This will be his sixth season, and his age 26 season, and while he already has a cumulative 21.7 WAR, the stardom that Tatis was promised still seems slightly distant. It's not that he hasn't performed well, but he's never gone a season without missing at least some time, he was out for the Padres' 2022 NLCS run, and he was never exactly exonerated after testing positive for PEDs. Moving Tatis to the outfield in 2023 did boost his star power, and his power numbers last year were welcome, but he hasn't hit .300 since his rookie season, he's hovering around the .276 zone as a career average, and the injury last season robbed him of finally making an impact. He's still one of the best in the league, yeah, but I don't know if Tatis has delivered anything as powerful as his pre-suspension material. 

I do think Tatis will have a good season, but I get the clearest Juan Gonzalez vibes from him. Talented, capable of high highs, but the drawbacks are also unmistakably there. 

Meanwhile, let's have a look at where some of the other late 2010s Padres prospects have ended up, and if they're in any way comparable to Tatis right now.

A's: Luis Urias had a couple of years as an infield starter with the Brewers, then when that didn't pan out he bounced around as an extra piece. With Sacramento, he has a chance to be a depth infielder, and if his bat shows up the A's would greatly appreciate another power piece.

Blue Jays: Eric Lauer, a couple years removed from an injury, is still kicking around the league. He was decent enough in an appearance for the Jays. No clue if they have room for him though. They definitely don't have any in the rotation. 

Brewers: Manuel Margot's 2024 with Minnesota was not the greatest step forward, especially after years of being a reliable utility bat in Tampa. The Brewers plan to start Margot, but several of the outfield options have more versatility and more recent success. Odds are he wriggles his way through, but is he anything close to where he was?

Cardinals: Phil Maton has bounced around recently, but enjoyed postseason success with Houston and New York. The Cardinals took a flier on him a couple days ago, they could use established bullpen guys. Not sure if he makes the team, but if he does he could be a decent piece still. 

Diamondbacks: Josh Naylor just capped off a run of excellent seasons as an 1B/DH piece in Cleveland, cementing his status not only as a great power hitter but also a dangerous contact bat. The Guardians parting ways with him seems like a dumb move, as is putting him in Phoenix, where he fits right into the vacant 1B position that Christian Walker left. The D-Backs need guys like him, and if they seek to compete again this year I see Naylor factoring highly into things. Very satisfying to see Naylor find his full potential after his early days in San Diego scraping the surface of it.

Giants: Joey Lucchesi's comeback with the Mets was halted by the continued presence of injury luck. The Giants are seeing if he has anything in the tank. If anything he'll be a minor league depth option. Kinda sad to say he peaked with the 2018 Padres.

Guardians: Austin Hedges continues to be one of the most beloved defensive catchers in the game despite not doing a damned thing on defense. He will continue to platoon with Bo Naylor until Bo learns to hit more consistently. 

Mariners: Andres Muñoz was an all-star last season, proved he could work the ninth as well as provide consistent relief, and is very high on the M's relief depth chart going into 2025. Of everyone here, Munoz might have the highest chance for exceptional output, despite probably not getting the credit if he does so.

Marlins: Cal Quantrill had a great start with the Rockies last year but fell off hard. The Marlins could give him a shot if enough of their starting options aren't ready for April, but Alcantara, Weathers and Cabrera rank ahead of him, and Max Meyer and Valente Bellozo factor heavily for rotation spots as well. 

Mets: Luis Torrens was a backup catcher with the Mets last season, and thanks to Francisco Alvarez's injury looks to get playing time again this season. As a matter of fact, he might be the starting catcher going into the opener. As endearing as the Mariners fans were towards him in the early 2020s, the Mets fans could potentially welcome him even more. 

Pirates: David Bednar has been one of the best relief pieces in Pittsburgh this decade. Last year he had a down season. Either he recovers what he had in the early part of the decade or the Bucs dump him and go with Holderman in the ninth. 

Royals: Hunter Renfroe, after being on a different team every year for the past 5 years, has finally settled in Kansas City. He lacks the real pop he had in San Diego, but he's steady, reliable, and gets the job done. He looks to start this season in the outfield, at least until the Royals build up enough that he doesn't have to.

Twins: Chris Paddack is looking like a probable Opening Day rotation pick. The last few years he's gotten injured at some point, but last year was a relatively full picture of his skills, and while he hasn't touched his 2019 peak. Ty France, meanwhile, is coming off a weaker year after being the go-to 1B guy in Seattle for years. He looks to start at 1st in Minnesota, filling in for a gold glove campaign from Carlos Santana. The Twins have Jose Miranda ready to go if things don't work out though.

White Sox: Travis Jankowski won a World Series with the Rangers, and this is the thanks they give him? And the worrying detail is I'm not even sure if Janko will make the team out of camp for the White Sox.