Don't Sleep on the Royals

 

Most other teams would be discouraged by the fact that their 9 hitter was doing the most damage two weeks in. I think the Royals are just relieved that Kyle Isbel remembered how to hit in the first place.

Cause the idea that I got was that Isbel was a defense-first outfielder who stayed in the lineup in spite of his lack of hitting success. Always a low-ish WAR, not a ton of true offensive production, maybe an RBI here and there, but mostly just nice catches. Right now Isbel is hitting .478 with 5 RBIs and 2 homers, plus 11 hits overall in 7 games. He got to 11 hits in 13 less plate appearances than Maikel Garcia. Logic dictates this is a early surge that could disappear in time for Bobby Witt, Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino getting hot, but...it shows you that even the 9 guy can go nuts for this team. 

This is why you can never really count out the Royals under this current administration [I mean Quatraro, I'm not making a broader statement about anything else]. They've got crazy depth and a wide range of options. Kyle Isbel can swing in and go crazy on contact. Maikel Garcia can be the hero, as he has been frequently lately. Salvy Perez can still swing a bat, AND he can hold his own against the umps. The plan seems to be to platoon Lane Thomas and Isaac Collins til either one shows long term readiness, which I think works considering they've both shown a partial spark at least. They also have Starling Marte hanging about, and he can occasionally pitch in, when not being roped into a lineup when the usual DH option is oversleeping. 

The place where I see the depth running out might actually be the bullpen. Carlos Estevez is out, and Lucas Erceg is taking the closing assignments. It could be going a lot better. Only Nick Mears is showing any degree of dominance of this unit. Everybody else has been very human, and very ineffective. Even Matt Strahm, who I bet is missing Philly about now, is trying to get his ERA back below 4. The starting guys have been okay for the most part, despite the high home run totals [Michael Wacha just gave up one for Steven Kwan]. And I do think, if Bubic and Ragans and Lugo can stay healthy this year, they're playoff-caliber. But I just don't know if the pitching has the same level of depth as the hitting. They brought up Luinder Avila the other day to face the Brewers, and he got kinda chewed up by 'em. Ryan Bergert is waiting if need be, but there's not a lot of surefire guys lined up next, at least not yet.

Still, the Royals look decent, and if Witt really takes off this year they could go on a tear. I can already see some real strengths. We'll just see how far they can take these guys.

Coming Tomorrow- After years of trade rumors, the Cubs finally gave this guy the extension he deserves. Now the real work begins. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Royals

 

On the surface, there's not a ton fundamentally different between the Royals team that went deep last year and the Royals team that missed the playoffs this year. Both AL Central teams that made it this year rode huge waves of hot streaks, and the Royals couldn't really do that in the second half. The Royals were also without Cole Ragans for a lot of the season, and had a limited version of Seth Lugo. Plus, the Brady Singer for Jonathan India trade, which I could have told you was short-sighted to begin with, robbed them of a crucial workhorse. With the pitching depleted, not even the best closer in the AL could keep them in the divisional race. With no fault of Witt, Garcia or Bubic, the Royals stayed home this October. That doesn't mean the Quantaro era is through, and considering the young talent taking over it may just be taking off.

On the plus side, the Royals got another great season of offensive production from their captain, Salvador Perez. From the looks of things his ability to play great defense behind the plate is pretty much gone, and all that remains is an above average power bat to play DH everyday, which isn't a bad thing. This year marked Salvy's third 100+ RBI year [100 exactly], and his second year of 30 or more homers [30 exactly]. This season put him over not only the 300 homer mark but the 1000 RBI mark, both very good things, even if Perez isn't exactly a lock for the Hall of Fame.

2026 Prediction: So his contract is up, but I don't think Salvy has any desire to play somewhere other than KC, so I think they're gonna give him the Kershaw/Cutch track. Just keep re-upping, as long as you wanna play for. Next year won't exactly be a 100+ RBI year but he'll be relied upon as a power bat for sure.

Cole Ragan has been so good since coming over from Arlington that a mediocre season felt like a huge blow to the Royals' plans. And it's weird to say that about a year where Ragans still had 98 strikeouts in 13 games. He obviously can still outsmart batters, and he's still very dominant, but he had a 4.67 ERA this year, and whatever went wrong was clearly enough to sideline him for the rest of the season almost. The good news is that he was strong for his first few starts, and his September starts were a big part of why his ERA went below 5. But man that April-May stretch where he was clearly hurt wasn't fun.

2026 Prediction: As I write this, the Royals have been rumored to be shopping Ragans, potentially gauging Boston's interest considering that Jarren Duran might still need to be moved as well. I don't think Ragans will end up being moved though, and he'll have a stronger, fuller year for the Royals.

Kyle Isbel has been a steady, reliable outfield choice for the Royals for the last several years. In 135 games this year, Isbel hit .255 with 33 RBIs, but the offensive angle is not the takeaway, as he's such a great option in center field that it makes the team more well-rounded. Witt, Garcia, Isbel, Michael Massey to a degree- they're all excellent defenders that are helping the Royals stay in it and stay formidable. Yes, the power hitting helps too, but you can't outscore opponents if you don't have a Kyle Isbel.

2026 Prediction: The hope is that eventually they get someone who'll relegate Isbel to a Myles Straw-esque substitution, but I don't think that happens next year. Does more of the same.

Ever since coming back from his injuries in Cincinnati, Michael Lorenzen has made a name for himself as an underrated, durable starting option. In Anaheim, Detroit, Philadelphia, Texas and now Kansas City, Lorenzen has eaten innings, had nice starts and done exactly what's been asked of him. 2025 was something of a setback for Lorenzen, as he went 7-11 with a 4.64 ERA in 26 starts, but he still made 140 innings, and, miraculously, he led the team in strikeouts with 127, beating his nearest competition [Lugo and Wacha] by only one or two Ks. 

2026 Prediction: Why stop now? There's tons of teams that could use Lorenzen. Arizona maybe? Milwaukee? Baltimore? St. Louis? I think he'll have a better year for any of 'em. 

For the second year in a row, one of the most effective relief specialists for the Royals was Lucas Erceg. In a full year with this team, he doubled his output and wired in, with an 8-4 record, a 2.64 ERA and a 1.174 WHIP. He did miss a smidge of time midyear but still made 61 appearances. 

2026 Prediction: I think with Erceg the magic is more likely to keep going than fade off now. The Royals will be better next year, and Erceg will continue his strong work, complete with an averted close call in October.

It is the year 2025, the game is ruled by a guy who was at LSU like two years ago, the Royals called up Jac Caglianone, and Rich Hill, who is 45, still pitched in MLB games. The Royals had him on for two starts this year in between some roster moves, and Hill...well, Hill pitched like a 45-year-old man. Not everyone can be Philip Rivers. He had a 5 ERA over 9 innings, gave up 5 earned runs and lost both games. Yet he still struck out 4. 

2026 Prediction: I know logically he's probably done, but this man still probably thinks himself indestructible. He is, after all, a New England Patriots fan. Look, if the Pats miss the AFC Championship, he might decide there's still more to do. If Drake Maye isn't there yet, he can just keep holding out til he is. So uh...screw it, Sox invite him to camp, makes 4 starts, has one insane scoreless outing. Why not, man? 

Adam Frazier, who was a good depth infield piece for the Royals last year, made a return before the deadline after spending a bit more time in Pittsburgh and remembering why he was grateful that he left. In 56 games in KC, he made up for a slow spring and hit .283 with 4 homers and 23 RBIs. Frazier, despite his best efforts, has become one of the more in demand utility infield helpers in the game, and the Royals clearly know that.

2026 Prediction: Why do I feel like the Royals already re-upped him? If they haven't already, they really should, it's nice to have security for Michael Massey.

In a move that shocked a lot of people, especially me, the Giants traded Mike Yastrzemski to the Royals. All that goodwill, all he'd done for the team, gone. Yaz only did so much to help the Royals' similarly doomed stretch run, but in 50 games he hit .237 with 9 homers and 18 RBIs, amounting to an .839 OPS. Clearly this one panned out for them, in addition to boosting Yaz's free agency case.

2026 Prediction: It's not gonna initially feel like it, but the Braves made the absolute correct choice nabbing him. It'll kick in very late.

In exchange for catcher Freddy Fermin, who, as I'll explain, they may not have needed anyway, the Royals got two more depth starting options to plug in for injured aces. Stephen Kolek had a 4.18 ERA in San Diego this year, and while he only got 5 starts in Kansas City, they were very sharp starts. Kolek had a 1.91 ERA, a 0.758 WHIP, 21 Ks and a 1.1 WAR after that month of work.

2026 Prediction: I think of the two guys they got, Kolek has more of a chance of getting flexed to a long relief position, but he'll have some nice starts when needed.

Ryan Bergert, at 25, has the higher ceiling of the two, and looked like the better choice in San Diego, with a 2.78 ERA in 11 appearances, 7 being starts. His KC work was less sharp, with a 4.43 ERA and 39 Ks in 8 starts. Cumulatively it's a 3.66 ERA, 1.4 WAR, 73 K season, which isn't awful to be fair.

2026 Prediction: Big year. Makes all his starts, becomes a really strong third man in this rotation.

After a certain point this year, there was really no avoiding it. Jac Caglianone, one of the top prospects in baseball, needed to come up. Unfortunately, as ready as he was in triple-A, his perks weren't all immediately evident in the majors in 2025. In 62 games, Caglianone hit .157, with 7 homers and 18 RBIs. He is 22 years old, just getting the hang of things, and will be fine. Not everyone can be Bobby Witt and have a rookie year that still looks better than 98% of rookie years even if, for Witt, it's mediocre. 

2026 Prediction: It won't be a full smash, but I think for three months we're gonna see some high quality offensive performance from this guy. I just don't know if it'll be right out of camp.

Dealing Freddy Fermin away lampshaded the fact that the Royals had another option at catcher in the wings, and eventually Carter Jensen was deployed. In 20 games he bat exactly .300 with 3 homers and 13 RBIs, already showing promise as a contact bat in addition to fine catching skills. 

2026 Prediction: The Royals are going to sign a career backup, somebody like Elias Diaz or James McCann, as a security measure, but Jansen will be the starter and he'll be ASG-quality.

Coming Tomorrow- A lot of auxiliary members of a Tigers team that couldn't quite follow up on the promises of their 2024 run.

A Bad Time for an Underdog Story

 

It's just funny the way it happens sometimes.

In the last 20 years of baseball, when I think about the epitome of an underdog story, I mean obviously you think of the 2019 Nationals, or the 2023 NLCS, or the David-Goliath battle of the 2011 NLDS, but...the team that has most regularly run the underdog status to glory has been the Kansas City Royals. And if you think about it, they've only really been *good* for like three or four of the last twenty years. From 2006 to 2013, they were routinely a punchline. Rebuilding, wasting away, trying to put something together, failing. You heard about their rookies, like Alex Gordon and Luke Hochevar and Billy Butler, and then nothing really happening to them. And then in 2014, they finally have the team to sneak into the postseason and upset literally everyone, including the Baltimore Orioles, who were looking like the favorite that year, to make a World Series. They did not win, but the legend was born, and in 2015 they were no longer the underdogs, and won easily. It was, of course, downhill from there, but it had been worth it. They built a team, rode the current, played the game and took it all. 

To this point, in 2024, it was looking like it was going to happen again.

I applauded the really smart moves the Royals made this year, from signing Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to giving Michael Massey another chance to start. The team followed, with Bobby Witt having an MVP caliber year, Seth Lugo having his best season to date, Ragans and Singer delivering solid campaigns, Perez and Fermin becoming an excellent catching battery, and Kyle Isbel once again being an underrated, game-saving hero on many occasions. At their peak, the Royals chased 1st place, and nearly took it from Cleveland. And then around being staved off for 1st, the downturn happened, the schedule gave them some really tough teams, Vinnie Pasquantino got injured and the losses kept coming. There was a rebound in mid-September, but it was more of a race at this point. Against time, against inevitability...and against themselves.

The strangest part of this whole ordeal is that the Royals are in grave danger of being lapped for a playoff spot, and potentially forced to watch from the sidelines, by a completely different underdog team. The Detroit Tigers. Going back to 2014, the Tigers were not underdogs. They were the commanding leaders of the division, and they were ultimately the victims of the Royals' incredible come-up. The playoff drought caused by the shift in that division around 2014 and 2015 has lasted to this day, and up until very recently the assumption was that it would keep going. But midyear, the Tigers came alive, Parker Meadows caught fire, the bullpen solidified, the small-ball tactics worked, and the Detroit Tigers went from fourth to second.

As of right now, the Tigers, with more momentum than they've had in years, have sole possession of the second wild card spot. Meaning the Royals are in win or die territory. If they keep sliding, there's a very real possibility of the Twins, the team they've consistently staved off, or the Mariners, another wild underdog, taking their place in the 2024 playoff picture. They do technically have enough power to get out of this hole, but I worry about their lack of current momentum. As luck would have it, they do have the Nats this week, and they got Michael Lorenzen back last night.

As for the Tigers...if they manage to pull this off, and find genuine playoff success, it'll be one of the most inexplicable things I've ever seen. This team was dead on arrival months ago, and now they're genuinely exciting and have so many players on at the moment. 

It'll be wild to see how this shakes out. If the Royals miss the playoffs and the Tigers make it, that'll be the kind of ironic cosmic justice I wish I could write.

Coming Tonight: He may have missed the playoffs, but at the very least he's giving a decent preview of 2025.

The Royals Against Their Low Bar

 

A few weeks ago, I talked about how the A's are verging on their worst season since before Rickey Henderson came up, and how not much could really stop them from potentially setting a new franchise worst mark. The Royals, the other 100+ win team in this scenario, are in a similar boat. They're sitting at 102 losses, and their low bar is 106, which was set during the 2005 season, around the last time the Royals were a league-worst staple. Basically, if they lose 5 games they've broke their own record, and they're also looking at upcoming series' against the Astros and Yankees.

However, and this is a detail that puzzles me...the last time the Royals and Astros met, which was this past weekend, it ended in a won series for Kansas City. Yes, the wins were close wins, but they still took two from the Astros in a stretch where the Astros would really like to hang onto first. It would have hit harder had the Rangers and Mariners not also lost consecutive games in this stretch, but it was a rare David beating Goliath moment. The Royals don't have a lot left besides Bobby Witt that they can work with, and the Astros have reached the peak of their momentum. Plus, the Astros only partially recovered and have been up against the ropes throughout this crucial Orioles series.

So what I'm saying is, how funny would it be if the Royals pants them again this weekend?

You know, even if there's this narrative about the Royals potentially setting a new season low, and this being the result of snakebitten pitching, a lot of hitters who aren't doing a damned thing at the plate, Salvador Perez leaving his peak, and great players like Vinnie Pasquantino, Kris Bubic and Daniel Lynch winding up injured for the majority of the season. But there are still people on the Royals who know what they're doing. Kyle Isbel is finally getting starting time, and while he's still not hitting very well, he's an above-average outfielder who's at least been having a nice season because of that. Cole Ragans has been the best pitcher in baseball since being activated a few months ago, and he's been a sure thing for this team in a year of disarray. Nick Loftin's been sharp since he came up, and now Tyler Cropley seems to be on the same path. 

This is still not a great team, but they're capable of surprising you, much like the A's midyear. If the Royals can topple the Astros again as they ready a postseason effort, I'll absolutely love it.

Coming Tomorrow-  Typically I don't post customs of people who land on the IL, but since he went on there like a day after I made the custom, and because it's probably the last custom I'll make for this team til December, it makes sense just to post it now.