Night of the Hunter

 

Hunter Greene's career, however it finishes up, is going to be a truly interesting one, one that's very indicative of the pitching trends of the moment. He was the #2 overall pick in 2017, but doesn't make the majors til 2022 due to a mix of injuries and the collapse of the 2020 minor league season. He's always been very good in the majors but has never had a season longer than 26 games due to his continued injury issues. He's gone from a full strikeout artist to a smarter, more thoughtful ace with that same strikeout ability. Even in those three partial seasons, he's still struck out 150 or more. Last season he was on the way to a Cy Young when he got injured yet again. Now he's very healthy, and playing better than he's ever played.

But...even when he's playing well, Hunter Greene gives you that uncertain, worried feeling. Like at any moment he's going to fall apart again. Two starts ago he was unbelievable, going 7 strong with 8 Ks, only allowing 2 hits. His last start was a lot shakier, getting yanked after 3 with 5 earned runs against the Orioles. With every time somebody like Greene gets really lit up, you get worried that an injury is coming soon. And I have Greene on my fantasy team, so I'd really, really like that to not happen. But that's what big game pitching is right now: going all out every start and hoping it doesn't screw you up enough to miss time. 

I think Hunter Greene has to be aware of this, as well as the fact that the majority of his Reds rotation compatriots are of this mindset as well. Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson and Rhett Lowder have all missed time recently. Greene has lost a ton of time that he could have capitalized on already, and like other oft-injured high draft picks, like Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton and Casey Mize, he's trying to fight the perception of him as a 'could have been somebody' guy. 

This said, Greene so far has been excellent, barring that Baltimore start. He's got a 2.35 ERA and 35 Ks, which is fantastic. Andrew Abbott is 2-0 since being activated, with a 1.64 ERA. Nick Lodolo, despite the idea that he's trying not to overexert himself, has been very dominant, with a 2.79 ERA and a 0.966 WHIP. Brady Singer is 4-0, even if statistically he's not as flashy as the others. The bullpen has also taken a great spike upward, with Emilio Pagan taking over for Alexis Diaz in the ninth, Tony Santillan, Taylor Rogers, Brent Suter and surprisingly Graham Ashcraft, taking to his relief role insanely well. That has helped this team, even if, aside from some cheesy bench power, there's not a whole lot going on offensively at the moment. 

I hope Hunter Greene, and the Reds, stay relevant and healthy this year. It's about time something happened on both fronts.

Coming Tonight: One of those guys that seems to simply hit home runs more often, and more casually, than anyone else.

On Hype, Heat, and Hunter Greene

 

This week, it was announced that one of the top prospects in baseball, a flamethrower that no one can hit, will be activated in time for a start on Saturday. Imagine if you were just described that way two years ago, you're in the same division, and you've gotta go against him at some point.

Hunter Greene is a fascinating story, even this early in his career. As a prospect he made waves because of how hard he threw and how many people he could strike out. Then it turned out that it wasn't sustainable and he needed surgery. To this day he's yet to throw a full season's 33 games, and has only gone as far as 24...despite, y'know, never finishing with lower than 150 strikeouts in a full season. Greene reminds me of early Stephen Strasburg, in that the mechanics are there, and he can really mess with you with those speeds, even if the ERA is higher than it needs to be. Like, his current 3.12 ERA is his career lowest at the moment. He usually goes higher than 4. He's also never finished a season with a winning record.

So that's honestly the issue with Hunter Greene. He has extraordinary abilities and high velocity material, but he's yet to really spin together an excellent full season. This may have to do with not having a good team til about now, but if you're a good enough pitcher that doesn't have to be an excuse.

Right now Greene's one of the standouts for the Reds, he's got a 3.12 ERA, 47 Ks and a 1.5 WAR. What helps is that the weight isn't entirely on him, and despite a few rotation injuries there's still people like Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft, Nick Lodolo and Frankie Montas who can be trusted to leg out full starts without bleeding too much. Montas just got activated and he's looking good again, which helps. The Reds have been hoping for Greene to be the central figure of a powerful rotation for a long time, and that seems to be what's in the mix at the moment.

Granted, the team's in 4th place at the moment due to the flickering life in the Pirates, which is only about to be further ignited by the weekend arrival of Paul Skenes. And yes, Hunter Greene must be looking at Skenes like he's looking at a past version of himself. Skenes is terrific, and damn near unhittable, but at this rate it's only a matter of time before he needs some sort of arm surgery. Skenes and Jones in the same rotation could be deadly, but how long will that last? Who's to say? 

Similarly, we've reached a rare moment where Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Abbott are all healthy at once. Williamson's gonna be down for a while, but these four are not only healthy, but getting the job done for the Reds. And considering that they just got T.J. Friedl back, the Reds could go on a tear this month, even with the Pirates in full Skenes mode. So either way, something wild's about to happen in this division, and it's gonna be fun to watch.

Coming Tonight: His first contracted year with his new club went pretty poorly, but now he's gotten it together, and at the exact moment where the rotation needs him the most. 

The Reds Level Up

 

In the past month, the Reds, who have already looked pretty different going into 2023, have gone through even more drastic changes. Currently on the Major League squad are the entirety of Brandon Williamson, Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott and, yes, Elly de la Cruz. You can make the argument that these reinforcements wouldn't have come about if the team wasn't so injury-prone right now, losing Nick Lodolo, T.J. Friedl, Nick Senzel and Wil Myers to the IL. But at the same time, if Jose Barrero wasn't gonna be the answer, save for an errant grand slam last week, then Elly de la Cruz was gonna get the call eventually. 

And so here we are. The Reds' current infield is Steer-India-McLain-Elly, and the top aces are Greene and Abbott. Welcome to the future, Reds fans.

What makes this sudden reclamation by the Reds' youth movement so satisfying is the fact that it seems to be emerging in addition to the number of pieces that are already working and may just be injured. It's not like the Tigers, where they rip through so many great prospects that they reach the back of the fridge and have to start Tyler Alexander. The Reds are without Lodolo, Connor Overton, Justin Dunn and Vladimir Gutierrez, and yet they just have Williamson and Abbott hanging there in the minors, ready to do some MLB work. Williamson has admittedly been shaky in his first 5 starts, but he's struck out 21 and seems to be a solid innings-eater. Abbott was insanely impressive in his debut, and looks to build off of that. 

And at the same time you still have Hunter Greene healthy, he's sitting on 88 Ks and a 3.92 ERA. I think like Billy Hamilton less than a decade ago, Hunter Greene is gonna be one of those people that's so good at what he does that you just kinda have to watch him for a bit and let him be incredible. He throws smoke and keeps the rotation together, he's looking like a vet in only his second season, 

And then you have Elly de la Cruz, whose first two games were the stuff of MLB folklore, already hitting like a machine upon MLB pitching [and the Dodgers, no less], and cracking a home run the other night to secure the victory over one of the best teams in the majors. It's very clear why Reds fans are so excited about this guy, because he's an incredible hitter who completely annihilates the ball, and could be at this for years in Cincinnati. Granted, his third game yesterday was a little quieter, but he's still hitting insanely well at the start of his career, and making the fans extremely happy.

The Reds right now are 29-34, 5 games behind the Brewers and firmly in third place, in front of the Cubs and Cardinals. For the Reds to be ahead of the Cardinals in the standings after 2 months, yes a lot of things had to happen, but it's an outcome I'm pleasantly surprised by. I don't know if this team will make anything of this season past regulation, but all of these new pieces are fitting perfectly into place, and this could make the Reds a favorite going forward, which would be awesome.

Coming Tonight: An absolute RBI machine coming from a team whose sole purpose this year seems to be scoring a shit-ton of runs.

April 2022 in Review (feat. Hunter Greene)

 

You know, even with a week's deficit thanks to the tail end of the lockout, April felt like a pretty full month as far as baseball is concerned. Lots happened, lots of stories came about, the Phillies got no-hit, it was wonderful.

First, as we usually do in these month recap posts, let's go back to the predictions I made for this month before the season started, and see how I did there.

1. The Astros will not end this month in 1st, and there will be outcry. 'ARE THE MIGHTY ASTROS DEAD?' 'WHAT'S WRONG WITH JOSE ALTUVE'S SWING'. DINGDINGDING. The Astros, despite a nice win against Toronto the other night, are a bit behind schedule, with a lot of the core struggling and Altuve himself hitting under .200. 

2. There will be three unbreakable deadlocks for first in three separate divisions. I'd say the AL East, the NL East and the NL Central. One out of three ain't bad. The only real deadlocks for first are in the AL East and the NL West.

3. Seiya Suzuki is going to very quickly become a hero in Chicago. That's 100% correct, the man's already having a great season, and he's still hitting over .300. 

4. The biggest initial disappointment of the year will be the San Diego Padres. ...no, not really. I'd say the biggest disappointment so far has either been the Red Sox or the White Sox, as neither are performing with the rest of their divisions' standards.

5. A major MLB star, other than the ones we're already aware of, will miss substantial time due to an injury. So not deGrom, not Tatis, someone we're not thinking about. And I pray to the baseball gods that it's not a Yankee or Phillie. Well, Kris Bryant did wind up on the IL, but I don't know if it's a substantial injury yet. I guess maybe Altuve counts for this category as well? Could also be Eddie Rosario and his eye issue, but is he a major star?

I...surprisingly did pretty well with those. Alright. So now we go into 5 things from April 2022 that surprised me:

1. First Place Yankees. Yeah, I was such a cynic about this team in the leadup to the season because I thought they didn't make the necessary moves. Turns out they did. Anthony Rizzo has been breathtaking at first, Jose Trevino and Josh Donaldson have been excellent defensive decisions, we didn't need a replacement for Aaron Hicks, and we didn't need extra pictures thanks to Luis Severino and Nestor Cortes being incredible. And these wins have been coming at the expense of not just easier teams like Baltimore, Kansas City and Detroit, but a genuinely good Cleveland team that seemed to be headed for first themselves. The Yankees stopped Steven Kwan in his tracks. Actually, speaking of Steven Kwan,

2. STEVEN KWAN. Like a bat out of hell, the rookie outfielder comes out of nowhere into the Guardians lineup and starts hitting like hell and making beautiful plays in the outfield. I was beginning to think the Guardians' farm system didn't have much left after spitting out Eli Morgan last year, but man is Kwan something, especially in April. In 14 games, Kwan has hit .341 with 15 hits and 7 RBIs, and a 1.0 WAR, dwarfed only by Jose Ramirez, who is as incredible as ever. In the first month of the Guardians' existence, people like Kwan have made this team count.

3. I mentioned this briefly, but the White Sox sinking like a stone. I knew they'd be fighting an uphill battle without Lance Lynn and Yoan Moncada, but now without Eloy Jimenez they're treading even more water. They haven't won a series since April 17th, and have dropped bouts with Cleveland, Minnesota and Kansas City, as well as headed for a booming Angels squad. A lot of pieces aren't working, and the team is relying on a lot of replacement players, like Michael Kopech, Jake Burger and Gavin Sheets, to do heavy lifting that I don't know if they were prepared for. There are great performances here, like Dylan Cease and Andrew Vaughn, but the core that had built up so well last season seems to be falling inward.

4. Kyle Wright picking up the ace status in Atlanta. I talked at length about this a few posts ago, so I'll just sum up. I had always expected Kyle Wright to come into his own for the Braves. I never expected it to do so in a moment where so many Braves arms seem to be letting the team down. Without Fried's best numbers, Soroka's health or Morton's peak, it really may be up to Kyle Wright to lead this rotation, and with his 1.13 ERA and 3-0 record, I think that's an outcome a lot of people might be okay with.

5. Edwin Diaz didn't give up a hit in a save-or-die situation Friday night. I'm still not over it. Nor will I ever be, I reckon.

Conversely, here are 5 things from April 2022 that I definitely did see coming. 

1. First Place Mets. I wasn't going to delude myself. I knew the Phillies would take a while, I knew that the Braves needed time to find their base without Freeman, and I knew the Marlins and Nats would be disappointing. And that left the Mets. While I was a bit unnerved by the team being without deGrom again, I also knew that they would still have Scherzer, Megill, Walker, Bassitt and Carrasco, and also David Peterson. As well as continuing to have a great lineup made even better by Canha, Escobar and Marte. So I kinda figured they'd be well out in first, and they are, and they're killing it. I'm not even mad about it. Except for the no-hitter, that I am mad about.

2. The Reds' Inexperience Does Them In. I'll say that I expected this, but not a 3-17 record. THREE AND SEVENTEEN? LORD ALMIGHTY. I kinda thought the Pirates had last for a little while, but the Reds, without Winker, Suarez, or even a healthy Luis Castillo, have completely self-destructed. And even if I thought starting Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Vladimir Gutierrez and Reiver Sanmartin altogether would provide a fun youth core, their inexperience is showing. NOBODY HAS AN ERA LOWER THAN 5. NOT EVEN TYLER MAHLE. Votto's not hitting, nobody's hitting, it's downright depressing...but I did kind of figure it would happen if the ownership let things go like this.

3. The Angels are finally ready. Once I knew that Trout was back to his old self and there was a healthy pitching staff, I figured it would be their turn. And so it has. While I expected a bit more from Ohtani, I'm so glad this team's finally come into its own, and is using the patented Maddon tricks of using random bench players in big roles. I hope they keep it up. 

4. Four Teams Fighting for First in the NL West. I kinda figured it was 3 again, but the Rockies wanted in too. This was exactly how I thought- the Dodgers are as good as advertised, the Padres have learned from their mistakes and are running on Machado fumes, the Giants are leading and playing Kepler-ball to the best of their abilities, and the Rockies were doing really well til the Phils took 4 from 'em. I figured it'd be a bloodbath, and it already is.

5. The Contracts Don't Immediately Work in Texas. The Rangers spent a lot of money on Jon Gray, Corey Seager, Kole Calhoun and Marcus Semien, and I don't think they spent money on three of them doing absolutely nothing right now.

Next, here are, in my opinion, the 5 Most Important Players of April 2022:

1. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

2. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians

3. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

4. Max Scherzer, New York Mets

5. Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees 

And to end the post, 5 Predictions for May 2022:

1. Somebody takes off. The Astros? The Braves? The Red Sox? Somebody.

2. A very big team goes cold, in a way that will make people question if they're a contender this year at all. Unlike some teams that had lucky Aprils, this team will use this as a way of having the other teams underestimate them, and they'll be dominating again soon enough. 

3. Ronald Acuna Jr. makes up for lost time immediately and rises to the head of the pack. 

4. There is some controversy regarding an unvaccinated player not participating in a trip to Toronto. Knowing my luck, it will likely be Aaron Judge. 

5. There will be another combined no-hitter. It will not be against the Philadelphia Phillies.

That's all for April, let's bring on May!

Coming Tonight: A big, beardy fella looking for justice in LA.