Timing the Eclipse

 

The story so far: the Cleveland Guardians sold at the deadline despite being in range of a wild card spot, while the Royals bought at the deadline despite having a lot longer to go to get to one. And now they're within a half-game of each other. One team going one direction, the other team colliding. And it makes me wonder one very important question: if the Guardians had done NOTHING, if they hadn't traded everybody pre-season, would they still have competed?

The Guardians nearly got to a World Series last year, and they did it with a new manager and a team that had been building for a while, plus a number of rookies that helped them grow, like Kyle Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, Daniel Schneemann and Cade Smith. Then during the offseason they trade Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez and Myles Straw, and let Matthew Boyd go in free agency. Then during the season, a number of the guys that ruled them in 2024, like Noel, Lane Thomas, David Fry, Brayan Rocchio and Tanner Bibee fail to deliver, Ben Lively gets injured after 9 games, the betting scandal takes out two of their best pen guys, and they now have to trade Paul Sewald and Shane Bieber. If they keep around the people whose absences put more pressure on Rocchio, Fry, Noel and Thomas, then maybe the team doesn't fall off this year, and they're actually able to stay in it. 

And even after the limited selling the Guardians did do, as they were also supposed to trade Emmanuel Clase, Steven Kwan and Carlos Santana but decided not to, didn't really stop them too much. Two weeks elapsed from the deadline and in that stretch they went 10-2. Gavin Williams became the ace they needed. Kyle Manzardo crossed 20 homers and cemented himself as a needed power bat. They were chasing the Yankees for that last wild card spot. And then last week they stopped in their tracks, the Yanks got hot, and now the Royals are at their feet.

Now...does it feel to anyone else like the Guardians miiiight be deliberately throwing this season? I cannot see any reason why, after last season went so well, this team now suddenly has to give up. I think this has to do with some of the points Tony Clark is raising in order to advocate for a salary floor, because owners really aren't encouraged to keep a team competitive, especially in mid-level markets like Cleveland. There's no reason the Guardians shouldn't have still gone for it this year, and the fact that they're sinking to the point of sitting out the playoffs seems very much like an inside job. 

Meanwhile, the Royals were a sleeper wild card team last year, had a smaller season this year, bought at the deadline and are now 12-6 since the deadline. Their deadline strategy, for the most part, has paid off: while Bailey Falter has struggled since coming over, former Padres also-ran Ryan Bergert has been fantastic in a starting role, with 2.70 ERA and 17 Ks in his first 3 starts in KC. Adam Frazier has gotten right back to where he left off last year, hitting .316 with 2 homers and 13 RBIs in 24 games. Mike Yastrzemski has 4 homers and 7 RBIs in 15 games, and is already being welcomed by the fans. This is a season that could have been halted by losing Caglianone and Bubic and there they go.

And where the rookies in Cleveland have failed to continue delivering, the young guys in Kansas City have continued to carry this team. Noah Cameron has taken on a lot of the load during his rookie season, starting 17 games, and doing so with a 2.47 ERA and a 7-5 record. Cameron is a very well-needed presence in a rotation that has already lost Bubic and Ragans. You've also seen a breakout year for Maikel Garcia, some excellent August production from John Rave, and even Vinnie Pasquantino FINALLY beginning to get hot. Obviously the stars, like Witt and Lugo and Perez and Wacha, can perform, but the Royals needed the supporting guys to step up [like the Guards' should have], and they have. And that's why I'm a lot more confident in them stepping into the wild card race.

I think either of these two could be fun presences in the mix for the AL, but with an already crowded field there may be room for only one, or neither if the Mariners can stop from completely bottoming out. They're both gonna have to see how their approaches will pan out, I guess.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who...sort of had the right idea leaving Cleveland?

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Guardians

 

Of the four teams that made it to the Championship Series round of the playoffs, three of them represented some of the highest payrolls in baseball. The Dodgers and Yankees, who always overspend, and also the Mets, who've become a high spender under the Steve Cohen regime.

And then, in the other corner, the Cleveland Guardians. Who only have five guys on multi-year deals [one of which just got traded anyhow], most of them manageable, and were without one of them already. This is a very low-budget Guardians team, which has relied almost entirely on youth movements to populate the majority of the roster, and they still won 92 games and made it to an ALCS over teams like the Astros, Royals and Orioles, who bought their way to glory this year [to a degree]. 

Just look at their starting shortstop, Brayan Rocchio, who got the position after breaking out last year. Rocchio, like Andres Gimenez, is a defense-first infielder, and this year was one of the best defensive shortstops in the league. I know this team still wishes they never traded away Lindor, but Rocchio, defensively, is right there with him. Offensively he's not great yet, he hit .206 this year, but that's not why he kept the position. He kept the position because he was a crucial piece of that infield, [a combined 16.1 WAR], and because at the very least he could snag a hit by when needed. During the postseason he hit .333 with 11 hits and 2 RBIs. Only Steven Kwan hit better than him in October.

2025 Prediction: His average trends upward and he's in the mix for a gold glove. The only thing is I'm not sure if he'll find a double play partner like Gimenez.

2023 set up a young rotation supplanting the main one in Cleveland, consisting of rookies Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Xzavion Curry. Allen and Curry struggled in 2024, Bibee became the #1 man in Bieber's absence, and Williams...did alright. He only had 16 starts due to injuries, but had a 4.86 ERA and 74 Ks. He started one playoff game and got lit up. 

2025 Prediction: His age-25 season produces his most confident material yet, enough to really reassure the team going forward.

Will Brennan was the team's starting right fielder for the majority of the year, and in that time he hit .264 with 8 home runs and 30 RBIs. Not bad, but not the most notable of the Cleveland outfielders. Eventually he was platooned with Jhonkensy Noel. In the playoffs, Brennan had 2 hits in 12 at-bats.

2025 Prediction: Isn't a starter but has a few good games.

I did customs of most of the mighty 2024 Guardians bullpen, including Clase, Gaddis and Smith, yet unsurprisingly there's two noteworthy ones I didn't get to. Tim Herrin deserves to be listed with the prior three, as he was equally as dominant. In 75 games, he had a 1.92 ERA with 5 wins and 68 Ks, plus a 0.975 WHIP. In the postseason, he had a 1.08 ERA with only 1 earned run in 9 appearances.

2025 Prediction: Okay, his ERA rises above 2, but he remains consistent.

Meanwhile, Pedro Avila, once a member of the Padres' own youth movement, kicked around a few clubs before landing in Cleveland midyear, which, of course, was the exact moment his season turned around. In 50 games with the Guardians, Avila had a 3.25 ERA with 73 Ks and 5 wins. In the playoffs he was hitless, and scoreless, through 3 appearances, and might I say that the Yankees couldn't even get anything done against him.

2025 Prediction: I reckon he'll only be as reliable as he was in October in fleeting moments, but he definitely stays in Cleveland.

2024 was the last MLB season for Carlos Carrasco, who, after two years in New York, returned to Cleveland to retire with the team that made him a star. Obviously he's past his peak years, and went 3-10 with a 5.64 ERA in 21 games [with 89 strikeouts, to boot], but he was a solid innings eater during a time of tumult for the rotation. It was a very cool moment to see him throw out the first pitch in October at Progressive Field. He's likely done, but I'm glad he got to end it this way.

Meanwhile, in regards to the future, the Guardians brought up corner infield prospect Kyle Manzardo this year, just to have an extra power bat around. Manzardo hit 20 homers in the minors this year, and only 5 in the majors. Not that he was completely stymied, he hit .235 and had 15 RBIs in 53 games, but he wasn't the immediate power success that Big Christmas was. The good news was that the postseason came naturally to Manzardo, as he hit .316 with 6 hits, 2 RBIs and a huge home run. A very good sign for his future prospects.

2025 Prediction: The one thing I worry about in regards to Manzardo is his ability to fit into this roster alongside the current 1B/DH, Josh Naylor. Naylor has been mentioned in trade talks, and the Guardians already proved they're not above trading away marquee guys this year. Though I actually think Manzardo might have the better season next year.

And then, after all the Guardians' pitching woes, they traded for Alex Cobb, who spent the first half injured in San Francisco. Cobb made three regular season starts before getting hurt again, but he seemed to have his wits about him, going 2-1 with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.041 WHIP. His postseason starts weren't as good, he lost both of them with a 7.94 ERA. But it was nice that he could still be relied upon by an MLB roster in October after all this missed time.

2025 Prediction: Oh, I don't even know. He'll make some decent starts for the Tigers next year, but I don't know if it'll be all 32.

Coming Tomorrow- It nearly looked like it was about to happen, but once again the Mariners just couldn't get it done when it counted.