Midnight Stache

 

Here's what's worrying me. 2025 is our first season in a year or so featuring the full range of Spencer Strider. In 2022 and 2023 he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He nearly won Rookie of the Year in 2022, and he honestly should have won a Cy Young in 2023, a season where he won 20 games and had 281 strikeouts, but apparently sportswriters prefer it if your ERA is lower. Strider is one talented, powerful thrower, and him missing last year felt like a serious loss. You could see it coming, with two straight years where he made virtually all his starts, but it still hurt.

And now this year, where he's finally back and throwing regularly, Strider is 5-8 with a 3.71 ERA and 92 Ks. Maybe it's this brand of Braves team, maybe it's the rehabbing, but it's a worrying sign. 

The factor that still assures me somewhat is that Strider is 26, he's still in his prime, and he can still strike everybody out. In a season where the Braves have lost Chris Sale, Ronald Acuna, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes and now Austin Riley, Strider has stayed healthy and has thrown pretty well this year, even if that ERA, is it tends to be with Strider, is a little high. He's still making great pace and doing what he should be doing, and ultimately gearing up for a fuller and more masterful 2025. As is the rest of the team.

Currently, there really isn't much more for the Braves to be doing. Any thought of the Braves being a last minute spoiler in the NL East has been thwarted by the Marlins going on a run, and any attempt at being a deadline seller was thwarted by their own GM trying to dump players who really wouldn't be worth it. Marcell Ozuna's magic has worn off, Raisel Iglesias has a -0.2 WAR, nobody in this rotation is gonna make 200 innings, hell, I'm not even sure if anybody's hitting 30 homers this year. Matt Olson might, but who knows.

And the future of this team's similarly murky because if this same thing happens next year and the team has to think about building a new core, is it gonna be around Drake Baldwin? I'd say it's a low sample size, but the Braves signed Michael Harris over less of one and I don't know if that was a great investment.  This is a real identity crisis moment for the Braves, because they were not prepared for a bust like this, and they were not prepared for their formula to be unsustainable. So now they kinda have to ride out these contacts and hope something sparks eventually.

For now, the eyes are on Spencer Strider to see if he can sustain his success, or if it's gonna be even more aggravating getting to game 162.

Coming Tonight: Of all the 'life begins at 30' type veteran pitchers, this guy may have been the most unlikely. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Braves

 

In a different blink of an eye, the 2024 Braves might not have even made the playoffs. Which is a wild sentence considering that the Braves have been one of the best teams of the 2020s, and have a World Series title, which they won without many of the players that made the current incarnation truly great. And honestly, it wouldn't have been unheard of for them to take another ring this year, despite being without Ronald Acuna, Spencer Strider and Austin Riley for the stretch run. But ultimately, the magic that unfolded in late 2021 was not to be repeated, and the Braves were bounced from the playoffs almost immediately, thanks to a run-in with the San Diego Padres.

Being without Acuna for the majority of the year is one of the main factors in why this Braves team wasn't  as lethal as before. Not only was Acuna a wash after May, he wasn't exactly playing his best ball during his healthy two months. In 49 games he hit .250 with 4 home runs, 15 RBIs and, thankfully, 16 stolen bases. The idea is that Acuna's incredible 2023 may have overworked him and left him without much for an immediate follow-up. That's not to say he's completely cooked, as he is still Ronald Acuna Jr., but it's another setback for a career that still could be great.

2025 Prediction: Well at the very least he'll hit 30 home runs. I'm just not sure how many games he'll make but he'll make up for lost time.

Speaking of lost time, Spencer Strider, after two absolutely incredible seasons of 200 strikeouts or more, felt the drawback to hurling at an MLB level so consistently. He was rough in his first two starts of 2024, with a 7 ERA in 9 innings, despite 12 strikeouts. Upon examination, Strider needed another Tommy John surgery, and thus was lost for the rest of the year. Ultimately the Braves would be able to string together a rotation, but this happening a week and a half into a season which began with the Braves dealing away excess arms [Kyle Wright, Marco Gonzales, Jackson Kowar, all of whom would be hurt anyway in 2024] was a sign of things to come.

2025 Prediction: Like Acuna, Strider will make up for lost time with another 200 K year, it's just a matter of how many games he's able to get to the mark in.

A year after his first All-Star Game, Sean Murphy found himself struggling with injuries and ultimately playing second fiddle to Travis d'Arnaud. In 72 games, Murphy hit .193 with 25 RBIs and 10 homers, which means it was only his defensive catching abilities that gave him an edge this year. With d'Arnaud gone to Anaheim and no immediate competition at the moment, Murphy needs to reestablish his dominance or else he'll be a high-priced backup for a few years.

2025 Prediction: An improvement over 2024, no doubt, but I don't think he'll reach the heights of 2023.

Like Murphy, Orlando Arcia started an All-Star Game last year, and also like Murphy, Arcia was the victim of diminishing returns, despite a full season of play. Arcia hit .218 this year with 17 home runs and 46 RBIs, with no real fielding perks. After trading away Brayden Shewmake and Vaughn Grissom, the Braves were left with a subpar-hitting infielder. We'll see if they made the right choice, or if Grissom turns into anything in Boston after all.

2025 Prediction: Sees some competition for SS and can't quite stave it off.

Adam Duvall was back in Atlanta for a third stint. If you recall, his first stint was tumultuous but charming, his second was a needed offensive lift for the 2021 postseason, and he was coming off a strong-but-shortened year in Boston. Needless to say, we were back to 2018 levels of futility for Duvall this year, as with Harris and Acuna's injuries he got a lot of playing time, and blew a lot of opportunities. Not only did he only hit .182 this year, despite 11 homers, but he was dreadful in the outfield. The Braves brought a lot of people back to recapture the 2021 vibes, like Eddie Rosario and Jorge Soler, but Duvall couldn't even muster much excitement this season.

2025 Prediction: If anyone signs him, it'll be in a DH type role for a rebuilding team, and he might not make it to September in that case.

The Braves' bullpen was honestly pretty sharp this year, with a lot of strong options having excellent years backing up Raisel Iglesias in the ninth. Joe Jimenez, in his second year since coming over from Detroit, continued his reign as one of the most underrated relief pitchers in the game. In undeniably his best season yet, he had a 2.62 ERA in 69 innings, as well as a 0.990 WHIP and a 1.8 WAR. Jimenez also went scoreless in his sole postseason appearance this year.

2025 Prediction: Same amount of innings, perhaps not quite as consistent but still very reliable. 

Dylan Lee, a former proposed starting prospect for the Braves, had a full season of relief similar to his 2022, only this time he flexed his longer relief skills and proved his worth as a versatile relief pick. In 52 games, Lee had a 2.11 ERA with 76 Ks and a 1.106 WHIP. He was also a suitable mop-up man in his sole postseason appearance, leaving without any earned runs.

2025 Prediction: Will lead the bullpen in wins.

Late in the season, with their own options wearing thin, the Braves relied upon waiver deals and free agent signings to beef up the roster, including three different players who'd been cut throughout the year. Ramon Laureano was cut by the Guardians on their way to an ALCS [in favor of Jhonkensy Noel, mostly], and the Braves, knowing Laureano's CF prowess, jumped at the opportunity. Laureano was a surprise hit in Atlanta, hitting .296 in 67 games with 10 home runs and 29 RBIs. Unfortunately his outfield skills have slid to 'average', meaning the guy they got for his arm was mostly used for his bat.

2025 Prediction: I think his whole thing now is just being a replacement OF type when a big star gets hurt, so...look for him to not pop up til then.

Whit Merrifield was seen as a great pickup for the Phillies, but his year in red pinstripes was a disappointment, and he was cut shortly after the deadline. The Braves, after just losing Riley, jumped at the chance to add the gold-glove talent. In 42 games, Merrifield hit .248 with 34 hits. His defense is alright but not at Royals/Jays levels.

2025 Prediction: Does decently in a backup role somewhere small.

And after the Tigers released him to make room for Trey Sweeney and Jace Jung, Gio Urshela quickly found his way to Atlanta, where he platooned with Merrifield to cover third. Urshela hit .265 in 36 games, with 15 RBIs and 4 homers, plus two starts in the Wild Card series [which were unfortunately non-noteworthy]. This was Urshela's most relevant moment since his year with the Twins, and it may lead to a slightly more active free agency case.

2025 Prediction: You're gonna think I'm crazy but someplace like Pittsburgh would be really good for him. Plays everyday til July, maybe platoons with Triolo or somebody, phased out over time? Somebody like that gives him a chance to be above-replacement-level for a bit.

Coming Tomorrow- Picks from yet another Brewers team that couldn't get past the first rung.

Secret Stache

 

It should shock no one that the Braves have the best record in the NL right now, but it's still a satisfying enough outcome.

Look, not everything about this team is working, but the things that are do make sense. What, Acuna and Albies are playing well? Who could have predicted that, apart from everyone? Y'know, I wonder if Sean Murphy's a lot better than he ever was in Oakland with a better team around him? What's that? He is?? 

I'm playing up a lot of the faux-surprise, because there's still a lot of great stuff on this team. There's even people who are playing surprisingly well, people like Bryce Elder, Sam Hilliard, Michael Tonkin and Orlando Arcia, who is hitting well again since getting activated. I'm...trying to keep it happy so nothing here about the baffling decision to demote Vaughn Grissom despite him playing well yet keeping Braden Shewmake and his slower progress. But yeah, seeing people succeed on this team that I didn't think would immediately is really good.

At the same times, seeing the people I figured would do well doing well is also pretty affirming, because you sign all these guys to excel and they exceed the expectation. Really, the only people playing below expectation are either injured, like Kyle Wright and Max Fried, or were injured, like Michael Harris. Everybody else is giving you what you expected. Spencer Strider saw what you thought of his rookie year and gave ya some more, with a 4-0 record, a 2.70 ERA and 67 strikeouts through his first 7 starts. Matt Olson already has 11 home runs and 29 RBIs, right on target for him. Acuna's still hitting .357 and is an early MVP favorite [at least I think he is, he's certainly playing like one.]

It's the injuries to the rotation that worry me slightly, because the backups are people like Dylan Dodd and Jared Shuster, who aren't the most trustworthy right now. The Braves also have Michael Soroka in the minors, and healthy, but his Gwinnett numbers aren't promising enough for the team to rush him to the majors. We may just go with Dodd and Shuster for those other two rotation spots beside Strider, Morton and Elder, and hopefully that'll work for a bit, but I do worry. I don't think it'll be enough of a stumbling block for the Mets to catch up yet, but you can never be too careful.

I like this Braves team, and I'm glad they're living up to expectations. This is a tough division to do well in, so I sincerely hope the stars keep it up. Strider especially, it's fun to watch him when he's on. Maybe not against the Phillies, but in general.

Coming Tomorrow- The Mets gave him up for Lindor. People will be studying the ramifications of that specific handoff for years.

Attack of the Braves Rookies

 

You know how last year the Braves traded for a bunch of people and then they carried the team to a World Series? This year's like that, but instead of traded people it's rookies. Michael Harris, Spencer Strider, William Contreras and now Vaughn Grissom are giving this team the boost they need to make themselves a postseason contender again.

And a lot of these guys are providing the same kind of services the add-ons from last year did. Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall and Jorge Soler all got added because Ronald Acuna was injured and Marcell Ozuna was out. This year, Acuna was only injured for a bit, but Duvall and Rosario were out for longer stretches. So in came Harris, a 21-year-old defensive upgrade with an excellent contact bat. Harris is currently hitting .298 with 45 RBIs and 13 home runs. Not bad for one of the youngest people on the roster. 

Then you have the Ozzie Albies injury. Last year, the Braves would have traded for somebody, Josh Harrison or Cesar Hernandez or somebody. This year they call up Vaughn Grissom, also 21, and he proceeds to hit .324 with 10 RBIs in 3 homers in his first 18 games. It's the kind of insane performance that makes me wonder what's going to happen once Ozzie Albies comes back. As great as Grissom is, can they really afford to keep him down in the minors again after this? Why do I see a trade in Grissom's future?

And then the other two, Strider and Contreras, have been here since the start of the season and have had great full rookie campaigns, building themselves into the foundation of the team and feeling like veterans already. Contreras has been an excellent catcher for a team that already has Travis d'Arnaud, and has a healthy version of him [Mets couldn't even secure that]. Strider has been excellent rotation security for a team that struck out with Huascar Ynoa and Ian Anderson this year. Strider might be a heavy ROY favorite, and I think he's got a strong case.

The team itself also has the strength of Max Fried, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, Matt Olson and, yes, Ronald Acuna, powering it through to September. I definitely think the Braves will be a heavy favorite this postseason, and could go pretty deep into things if other teams make the mistake of going against them as if they were still operating by 2021 rules. I finally figured it out. The 2021 Braves are like the 2010 Giants. Lots of veterans holding things together but the youth is juuuust ready, and now from here on in, they'll be running things just fine.

Coming Tonight: A nasty young reliever for a team determined to somehow stay in the fight.

Stache Cast

 

The Braves accomplished a great deal of what they did last year thanks in part to loaned, older veterans. So how do they rebound the following year without completely running out of steam like the Nats? Easy. They call-up some really good rookies.

As much as the Braves season can be defined by people like Austin Riley, Max Fried and Ronald Acuna, a lot of this season has been as vibrant as it has thanks to the younger players. I suppose William Contreras technically doesn't count as a rookie, but there are actual rookies who have made this a nice year for the Braves. For instance, Spencer Strider, who last month was getting some Rookie of the Year buzz, has gone from a bullpen option to starting to being a can't-miss starting pitcher. Strider has a 3.11 ERA, a 6-4 record, and 138 Ks, seconded only by Charlie Morton for team charts. Strider peeked into the majors last year, but not enough to make much of an impact before 2022, so now he feels ready and fits right in with Wright, Fried and Anderson. 

Similarly, Michael Harris II was called up around late May and tore things up almost immediately, playing some incredible defensive baseball and having stellar contact numbers. Harris is hitting .294 with 11 homers and 36 RBIs, and has a 2.7 WAR, fifth highest on the whole team. In a year where the Braves were thinking of going with a Acuna-Rosario-Duvall outfield, Harris has been a pretty nice upgrade, and is helping the team look towards future aspirations. And with Olson, Acuna and Riley all locked up, it's a nice thing to be thinking about these days.

And then just this week, the Braves brought up Vaughn Grissom to play 2nd base while Arcia is hurt, and already HE'S hitting .429 with a homer and 2 RBIs in his first two games [I wrote this Saturday night]. I equate Grissom to sort of the Nico Hoerner call-up, like bringing him up when every other option doesn't work, so while I see him more as a depth option for the future, it's great that he's already hitting and ready even now, at only 21. I hope the Braves have room for him once Albies comes back, but it's a great sign that he's already playing beautifully. 

The Braves have all this great young energy, and a lot of great players doing what they're supposed to. They've lost some ground and are now only 3.5 games ahead of the Phillies, but they're in line for a wild card spot and could go on a similar postseason run to the last couple of years. The Braves have a lot going for them this year, and it'll be interesting to see how they fare against some other competitors. 

Coming Tonight: A kid from Mississauga making waves in Cleveland.