Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Braves

 

In a different blink of an eye, the 2024 Braves might not have even made the playoffs. Which is a wild sentence considering that the Braves have been one of the best teams of the 2020s, and have a World Series title, which they won without many of the players that made the current incarnation truly great. And honestly, it wouldn't have been unheard of for them to take another ring this year, despite being without Ronald Acuna, Spencer Strider and Austin Riley for the stretch run. But ultimately, the magic that unfolded in late 2021 was not to be repeated, and the Braves were bounced from the playoffs almost immediately, thanks to a run-in with the San Diego Padres.

Being without Acuna for the majority of the year is one of the main factors in why this Braves team wasn't  as lethal as before. Not only was Acuna a wash after May, he wasn't exactly playing his best ball during his healthy two months. In 49 games he hit .250 with 4 home runs, 15 RBIs and, thankfully, 16 stolen bases. The idea is that Acuna's incredible 2023 may have overworked him and left him without much for an immediate follow-up. That's not to say he's completely cooked, as he is still Ronald Acuna Jr., but it's another setback for a career that still could be great.

2025 Prediction: Well at the very least he'll hit 30 home runs. I'm just not sure how many games he'll make but he'll make up for lost time.

Speaking of lost time, Spencer Strider, after two absolutely incredible seasons of 200 strikeouts or more, felt the drawback to hurling at an MLB level so consistently. He was rough in his first two starts of 2024, with a 7 ERA in 9 innings, despite 12 strikeouts. Upon examination, Strider needed another Tommy John surgery, and thus was lost for the rest of the year. Ultimately the Braves would be able to string together a rotation, but this happening a week and a half into a season which began with the Braves dealing away excess arms [Kyle Wright, Marco Gonzales, Jackson Kowar, all of whom would be hurt anyway in 2024] was a sign of things to come.

2025 Prediction: Like Acuna, Strider will make up for lost time with another 200 K year, it's just a matter of how many games he's able to get to the mark in.

A year after his first All-Star Game, Sean Murphy found himself struggling with injuries and ultimately playing second fiddle to Travis d'Arnaud. In 72 games, Murphy hit .193 with 25 RBIs and 10 homers, which means it was only his defensive catching abilities that gave him an edge this year. With d'Arnaud gone to Anaheim and no immediate competition at the moment, Murphy needs to reestablish his dominance or else he'll be a high-priced backup for a few years.

2025 Prediction: An improvement over 2024, no doubt, but I don't think he'll reach the heights of 2023.

Like Murphy, Orlando Arcia started an All-Star Game last year, and also like Murphy, Arcia was the victim of diminishing returns, despite a full season of play. Arcia hit .218 this year with 17 home runs and 46 RBIs, with no real fielding perks. After trading away Brayden Shewmake and Vaughn Grissom, the Braves were left with a subpar-hitting infielder. We'll see if they made the right choice, or if Grissom turns into anything in Boston after all.

2025 Prediction: Sees some competition for SS and can't quite stave it off.

Adam Duvall was back in Atlanta for a third stint. If you recall, his first stint was tumultuous but charming, his second was a needed offensive lift for the 2021 postseason, and he was coming off a strong-but-shortened year in Boston. Needless to say, we were back to 2018 levels of futility for Duvall this year, as with Harris and Acuna's injuries he got a lot of playing time, and blew a lot of opportunities. Not only did he only hit .182 this year, despite 11 homers, but he was dreadful in the outfield. The Braves brought a lot of people back to recapture the 2021 vibes, like Eddie Rosario and Jorge Soler, but Duvall couldn't even muster much excitement this season.

2025 Prediction: If anyone signs him, it'll be in a DH type role for a rebuilding team, and he might not make it to September in that case.

The Braves' bullpen was honestly pretty sharp this year, with a lot of strong options having excellent years backing up Raisel Iglesias in the ninth. Joe Jimenez, in his second year since coming over from Detroit, continued his reign as one of the most underrated relief pitchers in the game. In undeniably his best season yet, he had a 2.62 ERA in 69 innings, as well as a 0.990 WHIP and a 1.8 WAR. Jimenez also went scoreless in his sole postseason appearance this year.

2025 Prediction: Same amount of innings, perhaps not quite as consistent but still very reliable. 

Dylan Lee, a former proposed starting prospect for the Braves, had a full season of relief similar to his 2022, only this time he flexed his longer relief skills and proved his worth as a versatile relief pick. In 52 games, Lee had a 2.11 ERA with 76 Ks and a 1.106 WHIP. He was also a suitable mop-up man in his sole postseason appearance, leaving without any earned runs.

2025 Prediction: Will lead the bullpen in wins.

Late in the season, with their own options wearing thin, the Braves relied upon waiver deals and free agent signings to beef up the roster, including three different players who'd been cut throughout the year. Ramon Laureano was cut by the Guardians on their way to an ALCS [in favor of Jhonkensy Noel, mostly], and the Braves, knowing Laureano's CF prowess, jumped at the opportunity. Laureano was a surprise hit in Atlanta, hitting .296 in 67 games with 10 home runs and 29 RBIs. Unfortunately his outfield skills have slid to 'average', meaning the guy they got for his arm was mostly used for his bat.

2025 Prediction: I think his whole thing now is just being a replacement OF type when a big star gets hurt, so...look for him to not pop up til then.

Whit Merrifield was seen as a great pickup for the Phillies, but his year in red pinstripes was a disappointment, and he was cut shortly after the deadline. The Braves, after just losing Riley, jumped at the chance to add the gold-glove talent. In 42 games, Merrifield hit .248 with 34 hits. His defense is alright but not at Royals/Jays levels.

2025 Prediction: Does decently in a backup role somewhere small.

And after the Tigers released him to make room for Trey Sweeney and Jace Jung, Gio Urshela quickly found his way to Atlanta, where he platooned with Merrifield to cover third. Urshela hit .265 in 36 games, with 15 RBIs and 4 homers, plus two starts in the Wild Card series [which were unfortunately non-noteworthy]. This was Urshela's most relevant moment since his year with the Twins, and it may lead to a slightly more active free agency case.

2025 Prediction: You're gonna think I'm crazy but someplace like Pittsburgh would be really good for him. Plays everyday til July, maybe platoons with Triolo or somebody, phased out over time? Somebody like that gives him a chance to be above-replacement-level for a bit.

Coming Tomorrow- Picks from yet another Brewers team that couldn't get past the first rung.

Whit and Without

 

Last trade deadline, the Toronto Blue Jays confused dozens by trading for a veteran middle-infielder who they only intended on using as a depth piece for the stretch. He was alright.

This trade deadline, the Toronto Blue Jays confused dozens by trading for a veteran middle-infielder who they only intended on using as a depth piece for the stretch. He's currently hitting under .100. But the guy they got last deadline's doing great.

And that really sums up the Blue Jays' mindset in recent years. They go in with a solid idea of how things are gonna go, and then as things completely backfire they somehow back into an even better solution to go ahead with. Last year, the Jays were sort of emphasizing Santiago Espinal at 2nd base, and while they thought they'd be going with him as starter for the future, Whit Merrifield outdid their expectations and landed the starting role. A year or so ago, they were set on Jansen and Collins behind the plate, then in came Alejandro Kirk to lap both of them. This year, the Jays really thought they'd be coasting for years with Alek Manoah, he skids out and Hyun-Jin Ryu returns right when they need him the most. 

The Blue Jays, even without palpable postseason success, have been so good at falling backwards into great developments. Whit Merrifield may be one of their happiest accidents.

A lot of these guys, you can see they knew what they were doing. Bringing in Varsho and Kiermaier, that ups the defense in the outfield. Bringing in Chris Bassitt, there's an innings-eater you don't need to worry about. Merrifield coming on board, you can see why they did it, it just wasn't the best timing last year because Espinal was still the better option. Now that the position's basically his, Merrifield is .297 with 122 hits and 21 steals, in addition to 55 RBIs. This is the kind of stuff Royals fans adored him for, and he's just as valued for it in Toronto, especially as Bichette is hurt and Guerrero's having a spottier year. This is what they hoped for when they traded for him, it's just more of a long game plan.

Now do they have something similar planned for Paul deJong? I...have no idea. Probably not, because they just needed him to fill SS while Bichette's gone. Yet at the same time, Espinal can do that, and has been doing better than deJong. So maybe they backed into that solution as well.

The Jays are doing everything they should be doing, and still have a nice shot at keeping a wild card spot. If they continue at this pace, they'll be fine. Hopefully the absence of Bo Bichette doesn't sink them too much, but at least they're not looking for a new shortstop indefinitely because the one they signed for the next decade turned out to be a sexual predator or anything. 

Coming Tomorrow- An excellent pitcher I am currently mad at.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2022: Blue Jays

 

Saying the 2022 Toronto Blue Jays did better than their predecessors isn't saying much. They had a better regular season than the 2020 Jays, made it to the playoffs unlike the 2021 Jays, but, as they did in 2020, the Jays lost in the first rung of the playoffs. This is a more confident Jays team, having fired Charlie Montoyo and settling, at least for the moment, on John Schneider, and having added a few more crucial pieces in Matt Chapman, Kevin Gausman and, in his first full season, Alejandro Kirk. Going forward, even without Teoscar Hernandez, I expect the Jays to compete and go beyond their 2022 mark. But considering that what stopped them in both playoff campaigns was essentially not being as experienced as the bigger, badder teams, I wonder how much further they need to progress.

A good start would be a rebound season from Jose Berrios. While the former Twins standout did make all 32 of his starts this season, and struck out 149 with a 12-7 record, the core numbers were weaker, as Berrios came away with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.419 WHIP, in addition to giving up 100 earned runs this year. The Jays expected a lot from Berrios after signing him to a longer-term deal, and while he's still an innings-eater, he needs to have a quality season befitting of his Minnesota days.

2023 Prediction: Berrios is going to get off to a tremendous start in May and June and get an ASG nod out of it, but his second half will pale in comparison.

Although the Jays employed Hyun-Jin Ryu and Yusei Kikuchi this year, they didn't have full campaigns, which led to middleman Ross Stripling having a more productive rotation year this year. The former Dodger went 10-4 with a 3.01 ERA and a 1.020 WHIP in 32 appearances, 24 of them starts. It was undoubtedly one of Stripling's fullest campaigns since his 2018 breakout in LA, and it's a good sign for teams needing a free agent arm.

2023 Prediction: A really good team signs him as a low-rotation part and he surprises them with a full season of production. 

The Jays' sneakiest bullpen asset was sidearmer Adam Cimber, whose funky windup brought him some more success in Toronto in 2022. Cimber made a club-high 77 appearances in relief, and wound up with a 10-4 record, a 2.80 ERA, and 4 saves behind Jordan Romano. The man has made between 68 and 77 appearances every season that wasn't the 2020 one, and looks to continue his incredible production in 2023.

2023 Prediction: Maybe wishful thinking, but can we get this guy an ASG nomination? He friggin deserves one. I think he'll have more of the same production levels for the Jays, even if his ERA does go over 3 a bit.

One of the most puzzling moves of the trade deadline was the Jays dealing for Whit Merrifield. They had an everyday third baseman in Matt Chapman, they had an everyday second baseman in Santiago Espinal. The thought was that they needed a utility infield piece with bat perks, despite Merrifield's numbers not being what they used to be. In 44 Toronto games, Merrifield hit .281 with 34 hits, 16 RBIs and 5 home runs. The Jays have Merrifield contracted for one more season, and could platoon him with Espinal at 2nd

2023 Prediction: Will have decent first half numbers, but I see Merrifield being bait for the Jays netting a BIG piece at the trade deadline, much like how the Padres used Luke Voit and Eric Hosmer. 

Tomorrow, some dispatches from a Braves team I genuinely thought would repeat.

Whit Work

 

I think the best way you could describe the Royals from 2016 til now is that they have two players with excellent stats and career runs that would be Hall of Fame caliber players if they weren't on the Royals. Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez. Also admittedly the two players who've really stuck around since the rebuild. So...they like it here, but they don't like losing, I reckon.

Whit Merrifield is, as predicted, having another excellent season. He's leading the league in steals with 20, has 38 RBIs, 74 hits and a 1.3 WAR. Not exactly career height numbers [he's 32], but he's still one of the most reliable performers on the Royals, along with Salvador Perez. The very good news is that Merrifield doesn't have to carry the team solo this year, as a new batch of Royals like Andrew Benintendi, Carlos Santana, Mike Minor and Michael Taylor are helping carry the load and delivering in big-game moments. While this team is admittedly not where it was in April, and looking more like a non-competitive third place team, there's still a lot that the Royals are doing well, Merrifield included.

Possibly the best thing about this team right now is the sustenance of the bullpen core. Scott Barlow, Kyle Zimmer, Josh Staumont, Jake Brentz, Greg Holland and ERVIN SANTANA [I still can't believe he's back] have been consistent, solid, and reliable. Staumont has been taking the ninth a lot recently, and he's been doing pretty well there. Holland's not quite as sharp as he was in 2020, but he's still better than he was before. Zimmer and Barlow are dangerous pieces that hopefully will stay in KC past July. The rotation and lineup are a lot less consistent, have more problematic details...but still have their heroes. Kris Bubic has come through for some nice starts. Salvador Perez has 18 homers. This is far from a bad team.

But, again...the Indians have enough to compete with, and the White Sox are one of the best teams in the league. What the Royals have right now is good to stay out of last, but they have nothing close to the insane momentum they begun the season with. So, once again, we may be looking at an inconsequential, kind of okay Royals team, that's maybe a few steps too many away from competition. Which sucks, but you have to think they could pull something together eventually. And I hope it's soon.

Coming Tomorrow- Even in one of the most bullpen-friendly baseball cities in the game right now, he's still a reliable closing piece that everyone rallies around.

Quick Whit

In a season  where the Twins and Indians are sharp, and the White Sox and Tigers are better than they've ever been...that leaves the Royals in last, yet again. Right back where they were 10 years ago.

Unlike the 2010 Royals team, this Royals team actually has a bit going on for them. Whit Merrifield is still a league talent, he's hitting .301 and is tied for the most RBIs on the team with Jorge Soler [both have 19]. Maikel Franco and Ryan O'Hearn both have had outstanding starts slowly diminish. Ryan McBroom and  Cam Gallagher are both doing well vying for starting roles. And the youth movement  in  pitching has brought Brady Singer and Kris Bubic to alright debuts with the team, though the emphasis should be on  Brad Keller and Danny Duffy.

And yet...this team still has patches where people aren't hitting, and still has people like Matt Harvey refusing to pitch well. Despite people like Trevor Rosenthal [who might be gone soon] doing  what they're told, the pitching  is a rocky mix between unhittable relievers and veteran pitchers who just can't get it done anymore. This team's incongruence between the old guard and the youth movement is costing them, because neither  can really stand out.

Whit Merrifield, clearly this team's best player, still has two more years left on his contract. I don't think he'll go at the deadline, but Brad Keller, Trevor Rosenthal, and even Ryan McBroom all could. And I doubt that'll really help anything. But this is where the Royals are right now.

Coming Tonight: Definition of clutch hitter in Cincinnati for the last few years. Glad he's finally gotten a starting  role.

Whit Out of Luck

Last year, there was really one standout on the Kansas City Royals, and it was Whit Merrifield, with a nice amount of home runs, a great batting average, and the ability to be young and energetic, something a lot of the other Royals did not have. He was the kind of standout the Royals were glad to have, but they weren't sure if he could perennially carry the team.

So far this year, Hunter Dozier had been that standout, because he's been hitting .315 with 11 home runs, and now he fits the bill of being under 30. But Dozier just got hurt, and he might be out for a prolonged period of time.

So...it's back to Merrifield again, I guess. Which is fine. I mean, he did break George Brett's hitting streak record earlier this year, so he's gotta be beloved by the fans at this point. But I get the feeling that the Royals fans would prefer a bit more progress. Like, Dozier coming in to take the weight off of Merrifield would have been fine, and maybe they would have built a new super-team off of that. But maybe that won't be a thing now?

I sometimes don't know what to make of the Royals. They don't have any pitchers with an ERA below 4, their closer is Ian Kennedy, their big rookie prospect, Nicky Lopez, is doing nothing at the plate, and their flagship catcher's out for the year. And there are great players in this lineup, but they're kind of the minority; lots of .230 averages and below.

For a team that won a World Series 4 years ago, this is quite a slide.

Coming Tonight: He got out of New York, came to a team that was out of the conversation, and proceeded to get his mojo back. And he did it better than Matt Harvey, too.

Iron Whit

So...Mike Moustakas has left the Royals. There are only a few pieces left from the 2015 Championship team left. And the top performer on the Royals right now...is Whit Merrifield. A guy who came up the year after they won the championship. A guy who has nothing to do with the past regime...and might be a good person to build the next generation of Royals teams...

Heck, this is perfect for the Royals. In the next few years, the Royals are going to need to figure out what to do with the larger contracts, like Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon, Danny Duffy and Alcides Escobar. The general progression seems to indicate that the 2015 team may need to be shed in order to succeed further in the next few years, because there's too much of a dissonance between the older players, even with newer contracts, and the younger ones that are trying to move the team forward. The Royals can't seem to decide which part of the team they want to emphasize more at this point, and that's what's dooming them.

So having Whit Merrifield, who, while 29, is still one of the younger, more consistent options of this Kansas City team, is definitely a step up from where they could be, as Merrifield could lead the team to another postseason run if the Royals call up younger players to compliment him. However, it's a question of how long the Royals will take before they have a workable roster that can chase the division that concerns me. Because...take out those four contracts, and you have a mess of a team with only a few outliers that can play well. I also don't know how long it will take for the farm system to rebound from its exhaustion during the 2014-15 seasons.

There are a ton of questions right now in terms of the Royals, but at least the 2018 ones have answers: they're probably not gonna make it to the postseason, or out of fifth. They just need to ride the season out and hope things get better.

Coming Tonight: One of the most consistent catchers of this era.

Return to the Throne?

With a little over a month left in the season, the most important races are becoming the Wild Card ones, as the division leaders are becoming pretty solidified (Cubs notwithstanding), and the guys on the bottom are realizing they still have a shot. Right now the AL Wild Card spots are being held by the New York Yankees, who, barring catastrophe, will be hanging onto it in September, and the Minnesota Twins, who've gotten hot again.

There are three, well, wild cards in this Wild Card race- the Angels, Royals and Mariners. They're the three guys who're still over .500, and still have a shot. The Angels have been getting hot as of late, and the Mariners have been receding backward. So where does that leave the Royals? Exactly where they want to be.

The Royals probably have one of the more complete teams of this race. The lineup is pretty on, with performances from Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Whit Merrifield and Lorenzo Cain that are definitely career highs, a nice return engagement from Melky Cabrera, a rejuvenated Salvador Perez, and some other cool bats in the bench. Yes, Alex Gordon and Brandon Moss are definitely disappointing people this season, but there's enough going on in the lineup that it's not a big loss.

The rotation's not bad either. Danny Duffy and Jason Vargas have strongheld things, while Jason Hammel has done slightly better than expected, and newcomer Jake Junis is slowly improving. Ian Kennedy and Eric Skoglund have had a few too many bad starts to really shine, but they're not truly bad.

This is a well-formed, solid squad that needs to get lucky in order to get back to the postseason. This luck may need to include some losses from the Angels and Twins, and maybe some more offensive streaks.

Coming Tonight: Speaking of Wild Cards, a guy that pitches for a great NL Central team that, thanks to the general meh-ness of the NL Central, might need to fight a bit harder than expected to nab a Wild Card spot.