G Unit

 

I had issues a few years ago with the Guardians calling up a supplementary younger rotation while its preexisting rotation [Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, Carrasco] was still hanging around. And for a bit it was this weird mix of old and new arms, and there was this dissonance that didn't entirely work. Then last year something finally clicked, and we settled on a formula of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi and....Logan Allen.

And then Parker Messick swung in for Allen and we all went 'yeah, that does work a lot better.'

It hasn't always been pretty. Cecconi is still mostly an innings eater. Bibee will have some rough starts. Williams can still be wild. But this unit has gotten more done than most other incarnations, and that's because they all do exactly what's asked. Joey Cantillo is 8-5, has 112 strikeouts, and though he has a higher WHIP because of the walks he gives up, he's still a solid MLB starter with, funnily enough, the same record as Parker Messick who has a much lower ERA and is much more fundamentally strong pitcher. I always thought Gavin Williams was the best overall pitcher here, as the strikeout artist, but he's got a 4 ERA and 10 wins.

And then Tanner Bibee, who goes back and forth between steady and infuriating, is on a pretty steady run. He's got his ERA down to 3.86, has a 1.151 WHIP, and despite the Guardians continuously not winning his starts [he's got 9 losses], he's still a smart choice and a good guy to pack innings on. I'm glad he's settled in, and I'm glad he's got Messick and Williams to sort of fall in behind. It's like how Aaron Nola needed Zack Wheeler. Bibee seems to have the hang of things, and could get even stronger as we go.

The Guardians were already good, and now some of the things that weren't working before have been clicking into place. Steven Kwan is finally hitting again, and is hitting .400 this month with 18 hits and 5 RBIs, back to what's expected for the fan favorite. Austin Hedges is somehow hitting .280, and Patrick Bailey has somehow been hitting pretty nice as a backup catcher. Jose Ramirez just came off the IL and immediately hit a home run. DeLauter's heating up again, Gaddis is looking like his 2025 peak again, and Rhys Hoskins is somehow still leading the team in home runs. It's still not entirely pretty but the formula works, and there's enough to keep charging at Chicago.

As I'm writing this it's not looking like they're gonna top the White Sox quite yet, but they're still threatening to, and it could happen very soon if the Sox aren't careful. Look, with all the rough records in the first half, the Guardians are gonna be over .500 and competitive very soon, and it'll make the first half all worth it.

Coming Tonight: Cubs RBI machine, third or fourth year running. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Guardians

 

What the Guardians were able to do this season, despite the amount that was stacked against them fundamentally, was incredible. That Stephen Vogt got this team to the playoffs without Emmanuel Clase, Ben Lively, Lane Thomas and any sort of foothold on the AL Central all year is a monumental achievement. The Guardians won the division in a season that was the Tigers' to lose, and even if the Tigers still knocked them out, they bodied them in the regular season. With, again, only a few huge pieces and a lot of youth. It proves that this team has staying power, depth, and isn't just Jose Ramirez. I respect it. 

Like, Tanner Bibee was the ace this season and honestly he didn't really have the greatest season, cause I really don't think he's ace material. You'd come from Kluber, Carrasco, Bieber...and Bibee maybe is a good 2 guy, but this year he wasn't a great #1. Gavin Williams was a lot more impressive. But Bibee at least had some nice starts, finishing the season with 12 wins, a 4.24 ERA and 162 Ks. He still made all his starts and went deep into games, it just was a very okay season in that respect. Remember when everybody made all their starts and that would just happen occasionally?

2026 Prediction: Much better year, but maybe misses a tiny bit of time. Helps keep the ERA lower though.

Gabriel Arias was supposed to take most of the starts at 2nd this year in Andres Gimenez's absence, but ended up taking most of the starts at shortstop due to the absence of Brayan Rocchio's bat. Either way, he was somewhat impressive, with 11 homers and 54 RBIs in 129 games, even if the bat isn't the main takeaway with Arias.

2026 Prediction: Similar middle infield role, a little less fluid, a little more production.

With Bibee and Williams cementing themselves atop the rotation, Logan Allen, for the most part, settled in behind them. He was a little spottier, with a 4.25 ERA, 122 Ks and an 8-11 record, but he was consistent, durable and topped 150 innings. 

2026 Prediction: A firmer breakout, a 3 ERA and some ASG consideration.

Hunter Gaddis continued to prove that moving him to the bullpen was a very good idea, with a with a 3.11 ERA and 73 Ks in as many games. 

2026 Prediction: Continues at this pace, with an ERA closer to 2024's.

And Cade Smith really saved the Guardians' ass this year, jumping into the ninth after the Clase suspension and keeping the lights on. In 74 innings, Smith had 8 wins, a 2.93 ERA, 104 Ks, a 1.005 WHIP and 16 saves, far and away the best relief season in Cleveland this year.

2026 Prediction: 30+ saves, chasing the league lead. Emmanuel who?

The Guardians brought up two very good looking rookies later this year, and they were impressive enough to distract the fans from neither of them being named Travis Bazzana. C.J. Kayfus is a very highly ranked hitting prospect for Cleveland, and he debuted in August and displayed decent power numbers immediately, with 19 RBIs and 4 homers in 44 games. Kayfus will have to contend with Kyle Manzardo at 1st, but Kayfus is slightly better defensively.

2026 Prediction: 30 homers, ROY votes.

And then Chase DeLauter, an organizational cornerstone, was brought up specifically for the AL Wild Card series against the Tigers, which was a very big deal. It's always wild when guys debut immediately in a playoff game, and DeLauter's hard-pounding work in Columbus was enough to make him a cool inclusion in October. In 2 games he did manage a major league hit, one that doesn't even technically count cause it's not in the regular season, and proved himself even in a losing season.

2026 Prediction: He's not gonna make the Opening Day roster. But he is gonna be a big part of the playoff push next year.

Coming Tomorrow- A few extras from a Mariners team that came within inches of their first World Series. 

The Guardians' Worrying Detail

 

So obviously the Guardians are in a pretty good position at the moment. Still in 1st in the AL Central by 4 games, still getting excellent seasons out of Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor, still responsible for one of the best bullpens in the biz, and now have a #1 pick to look forward to, Travis Bazzana, once he's given a respectful development period. However, there are issues beginning to mount. For one, they won their first game back from the break then promptly fell off. A friend of mine was at that Friday game, the win, and then after the three losses he went 'am I just gonna have to go to all their games to make sure they keep winning?'. Next they have a crucial divisional series against the Tigers, followed by an even more crucial series against the Phillies. They cannot slip now, because the Twins will be more than happy to slide right into the divisional lead.

Now, there are two big things in regards to this Guardians team that worry me. One is a current issue, the other isn't an issue yet but could be down the road. The first issue is a simple one- the starting pitching. There's nothing overwhelmingly great happening here. Tanner Bibee, to his credit, is having a good season, he's 8-4 with a 3.58 ERA and 126 Ks, but for the ace of a first place, surging Guardians team it's a weaker affair than one might think. I go back to the 2016 team, who ruled the AL with a rotation of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar and Josh Tomlin, and even the 2019 iteration, which got great years out of Bauer, Carrasco, Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger. As recently as last year, the Guardians could come at you with a powerful youth rotation of Bibee, Gavin Williams, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen and Xzavion Curry. And now it just seems like everything's all over the place.

Some of the Guardians' most useful starters this year have been Ben Lively, a control artist who's 8-6 with a 3.57 ERA, Carrasco, who's clearly lost his juice but has made 18 starts and has struck out 74, and Logan Allen, who went 8-4 with a 5 ERA before being sent back to the minors. Gavin Williams and Xzavion Curry are up now, and have been decent in their past few appearances, but this is a very injury-depleted rotation, and it's hard for this team to deliver a consistent rotation year-to-year if everyone's gonna wear out their arms like this. The current model could work, but there's really no unification, it's really just 'well this is what we have'. It honestly wouldn't shock me if they go for a rental in a week or so.

The other issue, though, is a bit more concerning. This season, the Guardians have called up a ton of big-time prospect hitters, all of whom have the future of the franchise upon their shoulders mightily. We've seen the likes of Johnathan Rodriguez, Jose Tena, Kyle Manzardo, Angel Martinez, Jhonkensy Noel and Tyler Schneemann. This in addition to organizational prospects Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio and Bo Naylor, who've been up in the majors most of the season. And if all of these players have something in common, it's that they haven't especially factored into this season much at all for the Guardians. All of those players have a combined 0.7 WAR. Comparatively, Kwan and Ramirez together have a 6.3 WAR. 

And while there are good seasons amidst that pack, like Rocchio being excellent defensively and Martinez off to a nice start at the plate, a lot of these guys just haven't gotten anything going. And it's the kind of thing where the Guardians would activate somebody and go 'THIS IS IT, CODE RED, THIS GUY'S GONNA BE HUGE', and then he'd get there and hit .129. Like, Kyle Manzardo they were going 'OH HE'S GONNA BE OUR NEW POWER GUY', he hit no homers in 30 games. Cracked 13 of 'em in Columbus, couldn't get one in Cleveland. The Mariners did this as well, they'd bring up Jonatan Clase or Ryan Bliss going 'OH NO, POUR ONE OUT FOR BASEBALL MANUFACTURERS' and then a month later they have to awkwardly go 'also uh...Ryan Bliss has been uh...returned to Tacoma..'.

The Guardians have such a great team that it's not worrying at the moment that none of their future pieces have been inheriting the team as well as Kwan or Gimenez have. You can see some promising pieces, like Angel Martinez, who's hitting .262 in 17 games, and Jhonkensy Noel, who has 4 homers in 17 games, or even Schneemann, who's been a nice fellow utility guy to David Fry. It's just taken until now for anything that optimistic to come from this area.

I don't want to go from a team this good to just drumming around waiting for Bazzana after people start leaving. They need to build, and hopefully these are the guys that can help them do that.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically, a fun, contact-friendly outfielder from a team whose rookies HAVE shown up.

The Latest in Rookie Starting Battalions

 

The Reds and Guardians unwittingly have similar strategies right now in terms of their rotations. The front end of the rotation is all rookie-to-2nd-year guys who are playing big roles in the wake of veterans who are currently injured. The difference is that one of these second place teams is a contender and the other isn't.

The more publicized pitching situation is, of course, from the better team, the Reds. Without Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Vladimir Gutierrez and Connor Overton, the Reds have been forced to bring up multiple rookies to start games. Admittedly some, like Levi Stoudt and Lyon Richardson, haven't worked out, but there's this core of Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson that's somehow powering the team, even despite a recent losing stretch. Abbott was electric in his first few starts, and has mellowed into a solid, consistent, reliable starter: through 12 starts he's 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 74 Ks. And it's been incredible, because without Hunter Greene, the team has struggled to find a suitable ace, and Abbott is that guy.

At the same time, Brandon Williamson has come into his own since debuting earlier this year. Four of his last 5 starts have been quality outings, and three of those were 6+ inning stints. His ERA is now around 4.50 and he's finally getting the hang of MLB pitching. I don't think Williamson is meant to be a high-tier rotation piece, considering all the other ones that exist, but I also think he's a handy guy to have around to eat innings. Aside from these rookies, all the Reds have are guys like Brett Kennedy and Ben Lively, interesting stories who haven't pitched in the bigs in years and are doing better than expected.

The goal, I guess, is for all of these people to be healthy and surging at once. And you hope that we can start the 2024 season with Greene and Lodolo healthy and thriving, Abbott still pitching like this, Graham Ashcraft building off some of the starts he's had very recently, and Williamson continuing to be consistent. With the lineup this impressive, you need a rotation that excellent in concept to deliver for you, and I hope they can.

Meanwhile, on the other side of Ohio, you have the Cleveland Guardians, who are currently without Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill thanks to injuries, and just lost Aaron Civale to Tampa. Pretty much every second or third year pitcher to start a game for them in the past few seasons is doing much better in relief. So, pretty much 4/5ths of the Guardians' rotation is made up of rookies. Right now it is literally Noah Syndergaard babysitting, which means he's officially become the Bartolo Colon of this rotation.

Like the Reds, not every rookie the Guardians have tried has worked: Hunter Gaddis tried some starts in April and it didn't go too well. But virtually every other one has really found their comfort zone starting games. The biggest success story this year has been Tanner Bibee, who's gotten 18 starts this year, and is 8-2 with a 2.92 and 101 Ks, lapping even Bieber's season total thus far. Bibee is a solid workhorse who's doing everything right and providing the strongest innings for the team.

The flashier arm of the rookies might be Gavin Williams, a mega-prospect who's got a 2.90 ERA in 9 starts. Williams is slowly coming into his own, and while he may reach higher heights in the future, he's putting in nice work so far. Same with Logan Allen, who's got a 3.55 ERA in 17 starts. And the pleasant surprise of the year has been Xzavion Curry, who struggled in two starts last year but warmed up in the pen for the first half and has been excellent starting games. I think the team is still hesitant leaving him in for starter's lengths, but he took 5 innings last time and is slotted for another start this week, so he may be the answer this year, which isn't a bad shake of things. He strikes out more people than Thor at this point, that's for sure.

The main difference between these two teams is the Reds have a wholly effective lineup to rest on, featuring T.J. Friedl, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Will Benson delivering, as promised, while the Guardians only have three healthy hitters batting over .250. The Reds have the run support, which is weird to say about a team that isn't the one that out-contact-hit everybody last year. The Guardians have a few people that can get hits in [insert your own Tim Anderson joke here], but it doesn't spread to the whole squad.

Hopefully these teams can build off these rookie rotation arrangements and develop their new gameplan going forward as they recover from injuries. But, again, if the Reds are still this good without Greene and Lodolo..just imagine them reinstalled into this rotation.

Coming Tonight: Ironically a former Red. He can hit for power pretty well.