Keeping the Youth Tag

 

Last year, in the absence of veteran arms, the Cleveland Guardians developed an all-rookie rotation that somehow worked out better than the initial one did. Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Xzavion Curry, with occasional assistance from a healthy Shane Bieber or a visiting Lucas Giolito or Noah Syndergaard, held things down for the Tribe last year, and instilled confidence that once the veteran arms would leave, things would be alright. Though only Quantrill left in the offseason, despite a plot to deal Bieber occasionally surfacing, the Guardians' rotation options looked vast and mighty heading into the season.

So far there's only been one rotation setback, as Gavin Williams will be missing time this year, alongside some bullpen members who also got hurt. The silver lining of that is that before Williams was scratched, he was honestly looking really good, striking out 9 in 4.2 innings, and it looks to only be elbow soreness. Everybody else seems to be themselves, though Tanner Bibee's early starts have been worrying. All of Curry, Allen and Bieber have looked sharp so far. 

Most impressively, after a pair of injury-plagued seasons, Triston McKenzie's looking like his old self. So far he hasn't given up any runs, and is striking out batters like he did during his rookie year. Triston McKenzie I see as the Mike Clevinger type in this situation; he's not the youngest piece in this rotation anymore, but if he succeeds he could be the most crucial piece. He's the bridge between Bieber's vet status and Allen and Williams' greenness, and if he has a good season that's definitely something the team can build on. 

But McKenzie's strong starts do raise some questions, like...how youth-based is this rotation going to be this year? Not only will Bieber and McKenzie be back, but Carlos Carrasco, in camp on a NRI contract, has an outside chance of making the team. It's not...a 100% guarantee, especially considering that it's a 7 man race for 5 spots at the moment, but there is a chance that Stephen Vogt goes with a veteran emphasis rather than leading with Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee and Xzavion Curry right off the bat. It's not exactly unheard of for Curry to start in the 'pen, do long-man work and eventually work his way up to starting. And while Allen [and Williams] has been excellent out of camp, you never know if that'll be the deciding factor for Vogt to start the year. There's also Ben Lively kicking around after his decent 2023 numbers with Cincinnati, and while he's a long shot for the rotation, like Carrasco he's not exactly out of the race. 

So now the Guardians have to figure out what tactic they want to go with, or with lining the kids up behind Bieber is still a winning tactic. I think they should be fine this year if they let the kids play, especially considering they'll be getting Williams back eventually, but there's more factors at play than you might think given last year's success.

Still, I expect Cleveland to do better this year, and possibly contend. I do expect the Twins and Tigers to be tough to manage down the stretch, and it's not exactly a certainty as it has been in the past. But hey, this is the exact kind of Guardians team that could overperform. 

Hoisting the Oscars

 

It's just odd to say out loud. In 2019, the Guardians bring up a speedy, contact-hitting right fielder named Oscar. Then he stops hitting. And 3 years later, the Guardians, in his place, bring up a speedy...contact-hitting...right fielder...named Oscar.

Wouldn't be any more diabolical if Rod Serling was writing it.

Part of me feels bad for somebody like Oscar Mercado, who was a big hit in 2019, and seemed so promising and foundational for Cleveland. And then...it just doesn't happen after that season. It's downright tragic, in a sense. And for it to be another hispanic right fielder named Oscar? Oh man. I sincerely hope Oscar Mercado can have a good season again, because he deserves it.

As for Oscar Gonzalez, the second of two Guardians rookies to light up the leagues this year...man, if this doesn't cement how sweet the future is gonna be in Cleveland, I dunno what does. Steven Kwan is still a contact killer and a great outfield piece, and now Oscar Gonzalez is hitting .417, with 25 hits in 15 games, more hits than people like Mercado and Austin Hedges who've played most of the season. You also have backup Richie Palacios, who's hitting .293 with 17 hits and 7 RBIs, and the other burgeoning talent arriving from elsewhere, like Myles Straw, Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez, and it's no wonder this team has sped its way to 2nd.

This Guardians team is honestly a lot like the 2016 team, where you see a lot of sneaky GM decisions blooming, and the young pieces begin to cement themselves. The difference is that here we have a foundation that's already succeeded in the playoffs, and some pieces, namely Jose Ramirez, who's taken this team to a World Series. And upon this foundation, we can place these young pieces that are all in good shape right now, and then...who knows?

I should also mention that the rotation's in pretty decent shape too. Shane Bieber has taken a bit to get his ERA below 3, but he's back there now. Plesac and Quantrill are still in decent shape as innings-eaters. Triston McKenzie has found his control and is now a truly intimidating flamethrower. And in the absence of Aaron Civale, Konnor Pilkington has been a decent fifth man, bringing his ERA below 4 after 4 starts. It's not a huge, blockbuster rotation, but it gets the job done.

The Guardians are in second place right now, and unless the White Sox fire Tony LaRussa relatively soon, they will probably be there for a little while. And hell, there's even a chance this team could squeeze into a playoff spot later this year. Considering all the wild card hopefuls, it's not an overwhelming possibility, but it could happen. I do see this team competing starting next year, though. Especially if Francona and Ramirez do, in fact, stick around.

Coming Tomorrow-Speaking of teams that shouldn't be as high in the standings as they are, a hard-hitting outfielder for Pittsburgh.

They Call Him Dr. Sticks

 

Tonight, Shane Bieber returned from the IL, and immediately got back to his old tricks. He joins the newly returned Aaron Civale, who's also been sharp since being activated. 

So...if we were to have Bieber, Civale, Zach Plesac, Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie all playing well, and healthy, at the same time...d'you think maybe the Indians would have been a bit more a threat to the White Sox this year? I certainly think so.

I feel like each of these pitchers had their own month to be really good. Bieber took off in April, picking up where last season left off. Civale took off in May, with his very low ERA and high amount of wins. Once he and Bieber got injured, Plesac was the only viable starting option for June. Then Cal Quantrill took off in late July and early August, making the Indians regret not making him a starter from the beginning. And now it's Triston McKenzie, who's had some blistering starts recently, and is getting to the point where his strikeout totals aren't the entirety of his personality.

But the tragedy of the Indians is that when one would get really good, the others would either be injured or inefficient. That also rings true for the lineup, where only Jose Ramirez was consistently good all year [cause that's what he does]. I kinda wish the Indians could have enjoyed strong starts by Franmil Reyes and Josh Naylor all year round, and I wish that Bobby Bradley didn't take as long to heat up as he has. But, this is just a very fragmented, inconsistent team that couldn't pull things together 

While it is a good assumption that the inaugural Guardians squad will still be led by Shane Bieber and Jose Ramirez...will some dealing be done to rid the team of the overhead room? I do think that when it comes time to try and lock up Bieber, it may not exactly go according to plan unless the team gets good again. But even if Bieber-Civale-Plesac-Quantrill-McKenzie would be awesome if all of them were on and healthy...could this be the last time all of them are together at once? Is this like the Mets rotation, where they actually align for a brief moment before Harvey craps out and leaves. Will one of them get traded or leave in some capacity in the next few months? Or...could the inaugural Guardians team actually have an awesome rotation.

All that remains is whether or not the lineup will match. And as of right now, it's really not.

Coming Tomorrow- Shortstop for a team that came from nowhere to infuriate the hell out of me again.

2020 Topps Final Edition: Cards #262-270

After today's post, we'll have 60 cards left in the 2020 Final Edition set. It's been quite a ride, and while we've still got a lot of big ones to get to, today we reach our third multiple of 90, and are third zero ending card with this 9-cards-at-a-time model. There are some intriguing ones this year, also in the story of 2021 as well, so let's get to 'em:

Card #262- Jose Martinez, Chicago Cubs 

Jose Martinez was having a decent season DHing in Tampa, on his way to a potential World Series appearance, and suddenly the Rays decided they didn't need him for the stretch and traded him to the bench-curious Cubs. In 10 games in Chicago, Martinez failed to make any progress, with no hits, 7 strikeouts, and a .000 batting average. He unsurprisingly did not make the postseason roster. The Mets signed him for 2020, then he got injured [they could really use him about now].

Card #263- A.J. Minter, Atlanta Braves

I have to imagine Topps used Minter's disappointing 2019 season, with a 7+ ERA in 36 games, as a reason not to include him in 2020, but even still, they missed out on commemorating a strong, important season for Minter. He only allowed 2 earned runs in 2020, with a 0.83 ERA in 22 innings, and struck out 24. He was also fairly unhittable during the postseason, going hitless in the first two playoff series and striking out 8 during the Dodgers series. Minter is taking a little longer to get to a low ERA this season, but he's still a crucial piece of the Braves' bullpen.

Card #264- Daniel Castano, Miami Marlins

Daniel Castano was one of two rookies brought into the Marlins' rotation in order to cover for two of the previous year's rookies that failed to deliver. Last year, Castano was better than his compatriot Trevor Rogers, with a 3.03 ERA and 12 Ks in 6 starts. Nothing too huge, and outdone by Rogers' high-K work in 2021, but a decent harbinger of what could become a steady career. Castano is incidentally currently in the minors, but has made 4 starts in 2021, and has lost 2 of them.

Card #265- Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Indians

Oh yeah, speaking of starry 2020 rookies that haven't worked as well in 2021. Triston McKenzie started his career with a bang in 2020, with a 10-K debut for the Indians, and 32 more over the course of the rest of the season. McKenzie was not the highest-tier arm in the rotation, and sort of evened out over time, but his first few starts were LETHAL. 2021 was a definite sophomore slump for McKenzie, and while he did notch 49 strikeouts so far, he's got a 6 ERA and is giving up way more walks and runs than last year. He's currently back in the minors. 

Card #266- Yohan Ramirez, Seattle Mariners

Man, we're 3 straight with 2020 rookies that aren't currently in the majors. My luck. Yohan Ramirez was an integral bullpen piece for the Mariners, in that he was the rare Seattle reliever that actually lasted past the end of August. Ramirez had a 2.61 ERA and 26 Ks in 16 relief innings, and notched 3 saves. It looked like the beginnings of a decent career, but with the recovery of the Mariners' pen, Ramirez had less room to succeed, and disappointed in 2 relief outings so far this year.

Card #267- Phil Gosselin, Philadelphia Phillies

Phil Gosselin was the Phillies makeshift Brad Miller in the season in between his Phils years there. Miller, if you'll recall, was a bench hero for the Phils in 2019, and is right back at that in 2021. So Phil Gosselin, right at the start of the season, starts doing exactly what Miller did- 12 RBIs in 39 games, the starting DH position, and a surprising amount of contact work. Yes, the numbers died down once the season kept going on, but Gosselin, or Goose as he was called, filled a valuable hole for Philly. Of course, Miller's back now, so Gosselin's now a bench player in Anaheim.

Card #268- Alex Verdugo ASG, Boston Red Sox

I may be wrong, but I believe that in this sim'd 2020 ASG I did up for this set, Alex Verdugo was the only Red Sox player to make the team. No Bogaerts, no Martinez...Dugie had an excellent breakout season in the outfield, would have qualified for the team on his own merits, and it helped that he was one of the few bright spots in a dark Boston season. Of course, now that the team's better, he fits in a lot more.

Card #269- Caleb Baragar, San Francisco Giants

At last, a 2020 rookie that's still on the major league roster somewhere. Caleb Baragar had a decent rookie year in relief, with a 4 ERA, 5 wins and 19 Ks. He's a sharp relief piece in a whole bullpen full of tricksters, and he's having a much better season in 2021 now that he actually has a better team to fight for.

Card #270- Tommy La Stella, Oakland Athletics

A year after making an all-star team for the Angels, Tommy La Stella had mellowed into a decent infield piece on a tanking roster. His .273 average with the Angels was alright, but once he was traded to the A's for Franklin Barreto he got even better, hitting .289 with 28 hits and 11 RBIs. He also got a lot of starting reps at 2nd, and was a starter during the playoffs, where he hit .293 with 8 hits and 2 RBIs. He seemed to be off to a nice start in SF before the injury, as well. 

Monday, we've got another 9 up at bat. A few very puzzling omissions in this one. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2020: Indians

 

The Cleveland Indians had their comeback season, on the heels of Jose Ramirez, Shane Bieber, and some other characters that represented their growth since moving on from the core of their 2016 team.

However, one of the big pieces of said 2016 team, Carlos Santana, had a step backwards after an ASG season last year. Despite hitting 30 RBIs, Santana ended the year with a .199 average and a small figure of 8 home runs. Clearly a down year for Slamtana, and seemingly the final one for him in Cleveland.

2021 Prediction: In Kansas City, he'll have 25 home runs while building his average up slightly.

Zach Plesac, for those keeping score at home, was the Indians starter who got caught partying in Chicago and REMAINED on the team, instead of being punished by...[checks notes]...getting traded to an NLDS-qualifying Padres team, getting Tommy John surgery and a two-year deal and still being a top-tier starter. 

Plesac still had a good year though, post-scorning. In 8 starts he had a 4-2 record, a 2.28 ERA and 57 strikeouts. If he doesn't make any similar screwups in 2021, he should more than make up for the loss of Clevinger.

2021 Prediction: Remember in 2013 when Justin Verlander sort of stepped back so Max Scherzer could have his big year? Expect Shane Bieber to do something like that for Plesac.

Brad Hand led the league in saves this season, which should be a big deal. For some reason that I not able to determine, despite a 2.08 ERA, zero blown saves and 29 strikeouts, the Indians weren't enamored with Hand's work in 2020, and didn't offer him a contract offer for 2021. I have no idea why. This guy's been a solid closer for 3 years now, he just had a stellar year, and y'all are just acting like he's been bad all along? Baffling to me.

2021 Prediction: Hand gets 40 saves for a last place team and the joke will be on Cleveland.

One of the biggest stars of the 2020 postseason for the Indians, as short-lived as their run their was, was Josh Naylor, a kid out of Toronto who up until recently was warming the bench for San Diego. Upon arriving in Cleveland, Naylor hit .230 with 14 hits and 2 RBIs in 22 games. In two postseason games, however, Naylor sported a .714 average with 5 hits, 3 RBIs and a home run. Absolutely insane postseason material against NY, despite being on the losing side.

2021 Prediction: The official Indians DH, complete with a high average and a bunch of homers.

It impresses me that even with its stellar rotation this year, the Indians still had room to call up their pitching prospect, the tall, slender Triston McKenzie, who struck out 10 in 6 innings, the most Ks in a debut by an Indians pitcher ever. McKenzie finished the season with a 3.24 ERA and 42 Ks in 8 games. 

2021 Prediction: Rotation member right off the bat, fans 200 batters and gets some Cy Young votes. 

Aaron Civale was a crucial member of the rotation for the full year, starting 12 games and posting a 4.74 ERA with 69 Ks and 4 wins. Despite being the most human of all of the full-time starters for the Indians this year, he still is a nice strikeout artist with some potential.

2021 Prediction: Wins 12 games despite being the 4th or 5th man in the rotation.

Undeniably, James Karinchak was the best reliever in Cleveland this year. In 27 relief appearances he posted a 2.67 ERA with 53 strikeouts, stymying tons of batters throughout the year. The good luck wore off a little in the postseason, but I doubt the Indians are giving up on him anytime soon.

2021 Prediction: The closing gig is his. I say he makes a big statement with it.

Despite Karnichak's dominance, there was still room for the 38-year-old Oliver Perez to take down some batters, as he has for the last 3 seasons in Cleveland. Perez had a 2.00 ERA this year and 14 strikeouts in 21 appearances. Fantastic that he's still an integral part of this team.

2021 Prediction: Someone signs him to a minor league deal, he makes the deal and helps them into the playoffs. Then retires, I reckon.

Coming Tomorrow- Genuine good things to say about the Mariners.